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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by a Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I'm joined as always buy my cost, my companion, Michel Padre,

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Speaker 1: my BFF professional Better, Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in.

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Speaker 2: Hello Chad. Did you enjoy your hard knocks?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 1: My god? Let me Ticele and Simon tell me. I

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Speaker 1: got home from I was in New York City yesterday, Manhattan.

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Speaker 1: I was in the Action Network offices and I got

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Speaker 1: home ten after nine. My son was there. He was

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Speaker 1: waiting that it was already teed up.

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Speaker 2: It must be nice to be loved by someone.

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Speaker 1: We were so ready and I loved it. I loved

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Speaker 1: every second of it. I love. The intro of Chicago

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Speaker 1: felt so nostalgic for me, especially because my son and

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Speaker 1: I had just been in Chicago the week before with

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Speaker 1: my dad and we had gone to half the places

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Speaker 1: that are sort of in the intro when they are

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Speaker 1: showing the beauty shots of Chicago when it was great.

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Speaker 1: So I thought it was magnificent. I thought it was

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Speaker 1: great the way they showed Kayleb Williams struggling. I like

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Speaker 1: the way he presented himself. I'm not sold on Abriflus yet.

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Speaker 1: You know, I feel like this could be the one

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Speaker 1: and done, and I'm curious to see how they portray

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Speaker 1: his relationship with Kayleb Williams. They already tried to set

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Speaker 1: it up as something that needs to be special. I

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Speaker 1: know this is stupid. At one point, when they were

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Speaker 1: in the locker room and they showed the players sort

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Speaker 1: of in their uniforms, I said to my kid, I

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Speaker 1: just love those uniforms. Just seeing the Bears, those white pants,

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Speaker 1: those Navy jerseys.

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Speaker 4: I just they're like Green Bay, right. They have never

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Speaker 4: they have never changed, or have they changed since.

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Speaker 1: I mean they have the throwback where they had like

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Speaker 1: these wolverine style helmets from the nineteen twenties and stuff.

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Speaker 1: But it's been a c with Navy jerseys in white

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Speaker 1: pants forever.

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Speaker 2: It's perfect.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for asking. I loved it. Loved it. Also.

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Speaker 1: You know what I love. I love the fact we're

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Speaker 1: doing these division previews. And for today's fourth installment in

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Speaker 1: our annual NFL Division preview series, we discussed the AFC North.

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Speaker 1: We are joined by a very special returning guest. He's

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Speaker 1: an NFL expert, and he is fresh off the release

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Speaker 1: of his five hundred and fifty nine page Sharp Football

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Speaker 1: Analysis twenty twenty four NFL preview available now. I have

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Speaker 1: been reading it. I have been tearing pages out and

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Speaker 1: circling things. The strength of schedule kings that we use

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Speaker 1: in the podcast for our division previews are all from

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Speaker 1: his book. It is Warren Sharp.

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Speaker 3: Anybody, Thank you, Chad.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad you're back. We got a lot to discuss

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Speaker 1: the AFC North best division in football, rest, which you

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Speaker 1: have done a phenomenal job the past few years. We've

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Speaker 1: had you on the podcast talking about this determining rest

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Speaker 1: as a factor in the schedule and how it can

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Speaker 1: be advantageous or disadvantageous to teams based on when they

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Speaker 1: are getting teams off of buys, when they are getting

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Speaker 1: teams off of short weeks, and the same is true

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Speaker 1: for them off of buys, off of short weeks, etc.

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Speaker 1: It's becoming more and more complicated with the expanded schedule.

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Speaker 1: A lot of teams have an advantage or a lot

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Speaker 1: of teams have a disadvantage, including teams in this division.

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Speaker 1: We're going to get to all that, plus our breakdown

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Speaker 1: of where the value is in the division. As a reminder,

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Speaker 1: the favorite podcast is presented by Bet three six five.

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and

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Speaker 1: president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio,

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Speaker 1: Virginia or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called

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Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off

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Speaker 1: in Iowa terms. Condition restrictions apply. Reminder every division in

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Speaker 1: nineteen in the past twenty one years, an NFL team

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Speaker 1: has gone from worst to first in its division. I'm

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Speaker 1: telling you right now that status extra relevant in the

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Speaker 1: AFC North because the Ravens were in first place last year.

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Speaker 1: The Cincinnati Bengals were in the last place. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's start with the Ravens.

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Speaker 5: It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not save you.

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Speaker 1: Ten to one win the Super Bowl plus one forty

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Speaker 1: to win the Division. Ten and a half is a

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Speaker 1: season win total schedule fourth hardest according to season win

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Speaker 1: totals aggregated and then checked by Warren Sharp Again, we

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Speaker 1: look at oline and D line. That is a key

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Speaker 1: indicator for us on the quality of a team. O

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Speaker 1: line rank twenty fifth, not great, D line and uninspiring twelfth.

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Speaker 1: Warren as a mid Atlantic coaster, I will see the

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Speaker 1: floor to you. Thoughts on the Ravens.

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Speaker 6: Well, I can't start, you know, by reading the chapter

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Speaker 6: on the Ravens. I can't start talking about the twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty four Ravens before acknowledging how that offense change in

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Speaker 6: twenty twenty three, kicking Greg Roman out of there, bring

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Speaker 6: in a far more modern style of offense, and what

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Speaker 6: that did to help the Baltimore Ravens. And obviously they

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Speaker 6: were the No More seed thirteen and four record last year.

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Speaker 6: It was very reminiscent of the offense that they were

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Speaker 6: utilizing in the twenty nineteen season when they first burst

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Speaker 6: onto the scene, not from the style of offense, but

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Speaker 6: from the intent, and that was to jump out and score.

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Speaker 3: Points early in games.

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Speaker 6: When I look back, and I wrote about this in

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Speaker 6: the book, when I look back at the opening touchdown

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Speaker 6: drive rate, how often are teams scoring touchdowns on that

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Speaker 6: opening drive In twenty twenty two, Greg Romans last year,

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Speaker 6: they were down at six percent, one of the worst

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Speaker 6: in the NFL. Last year they went all the way

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Speaker 6: up to forty two percent, which was second best in

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Speaker 6: the NFL. Their score rate of touchdowns in the first

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Speaker 6: quarter was one of the best in the NFL, all

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Speaker 6: the way up at twenty seven percent and improvement over

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Speaker 6: eleven percent the prior year. They were much better on

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Speaker 6: the inside of the red zone as well, and in

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Speaker 6: goal to go situations, which is shocking that Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 6: led team is not efficient down inside of the red zone,

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Speaker 6: but that's what they were during the last year of

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Speaker 6: Greg Roman's term. They were in the last four years

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Speaker 6: that he was there, the number one most run heavy

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Speaker 6: and the number three slowest pace team in the NFL.

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Speaker 6: Those massively changed last year. They were fifteenth in pace,

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Speaker 6: sixth in pass rate, and they used a lot more

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Speaker 6: eleven personnel, still one of the lower rates in the NFL,

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Speaker 6: but they had been the lowest in the NFL for

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Speaker 6: over a decade twelve percent usage of eleven personnel. That

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Speaker 6: went all the way up to forty seven percent. So

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Speaker 6: they get Derrick Henry now. And one of the things

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Speaker 6: that I think is going to be interesting about that

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Speaker 6: infusion of Derrick Henry is what do defenses do to

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Speaker 6: counter that? Because that's the way I always look at

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Speaker 6: football as what's the counter move.

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Speaker 3: By the defense?

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Speaker 6: Well, obviously I would think that they would try to

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Speaker 6: load box as more frequently. Well, Lamar Jackson was the

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Speaker 6: NFL's number one quarterback versus loaded boxes last season on

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Speaker 6: one hundred and fifty eight pass attempts that he faced

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Speaker 6: loaded boxes, which was a lower rate than he had faced.

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Speaker 3: In prior years.

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Speaker 6: Obviously because in prior years they were a run focused

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Speaker 6: off offense, so they got more loaded boxes last year

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Speaker 6: fewer loaded boxes. But he was the number one quarterback

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Speaker 6: in EPA per dropback, number one in success rate number three,

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Speaker 6: and completion rate number four yards per attempt against loaded boxes,

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Speaker 6: So that mesh point is going to be interesting to

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Speaker 6: see if they load those boxes, are they going to

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Speaker 6: try to get some advantage there by doing some play

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Speaker 6: action and throwing over the top of those linebackers. Where

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Speaker 6: Lamar was excellent last year, they were better in play

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Speaker 6: action under Todd Monkin last year, and that was before

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Speaker 6: having Derrick Henry as well. They also didn't really have

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Speaker 6: a lot of luck factors go in their favor. This

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Speaker 6: is something I know you guys over at Action focus

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Speaker 6: a lot on some of the luck factors, but from

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Speaker 6: it whether it was injury luck where they were nineteenth,

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Speaker 6: or field goal luck where they were twenty third, or

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Speaker 6: fumble luck where they were twenty first, or penalty yards

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Speaker 6: against where they were thirty first, and nothing was really

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Speaker 6: massively going their way. I'm worried about their defense a

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Speaker 6: little bit with the loss of the defensive coordinator they

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Speaker 6: promote from within. I'm worried about the change overhaul in

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Speaker 6: their offensive line where they lose Zeitler, Morgan Moses and

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Speaker 6: John Simpson Simpsons and Zeidler, where there are two players

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Speaker 6: that led the team in snaps along that line last year.

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Speaker 6: Both of those guys are gone. Rest is massively in

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Speaker 6: their favor. We talked about that in the podcast that

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Speaker 6: I came on a couple of months ago, so I

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Speaker 6: won't rehash all the rest elements. If you guys want

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Speaker 6: to talk about later, we can, but they're much.

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Speaker 3: Better in rest.

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Speaker 6: I do want to hear what you guys have to

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Speaker 6: think about Lamar Jackson's weight cut, and I'll save my

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Speaker 6: response to that for if you guys have a comment

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Speaker 6: on your end. But overall, I think the Baltimore Ravens,

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Speaker 6: because of the style of offense has been modernized so much.

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Speaker 6: They are going to have an advantage with Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 6: and Derek Henry back there on offense and offense dictating

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Speaker 6: things in terms of scoring quickly, dictating the flow of

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Speaker 6: the game. But I do have concerns. I don't think

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Speaker 6: they're going to be as successful as they were last year.

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Speaker 6: I've concerned along that offensive line. I've concerned with the

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Speaker 6: passing attack as well. I still don't love their wide

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Speaker 6: receiving core. I mean, Lamar Jackson still doesn't have an

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Speaker 6: elite wide receiving corps, never has had that. The story

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Speaker 6: is the same this upcoming season. So there's a lot

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Speaker 6: to like about this team just because of Lamar and

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Speaker 6: the new style of offense from last year, But there

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Speaker 6: are more questions this year than there were last year.

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Speaker 6: And for that reason, you know, it's hard for me.

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Speaker 6: I'm certainly not laying a future on the Ravens to

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Speaker 6: win this division. I think it's going to be hard

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Speaker 6: for them to repeat Simon.

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Speaker 1: I think you and I agree, like this is not

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Speaker 1: a team that for a future we're all that interested

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Speaker 1: in right now.

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Speaker 4: No, we were sitting here last year, were they better

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Speaker 4: Ravens team getting twenty one to one?

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Speaker 2: Twenty to one on their Super Bowl futures?

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Speaker 4: And now we're paying a premium because it feels like,

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Speaker 4: you know, Lamar's coming off at MVP, and people really

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Speaker 4: don't look at what we're talking about here with Warren, right,

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Speaker 4: Warren's breaking down their schedule, also breaking down the fact

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Speaker 4: that you know, it's a big deal they've lost guys

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Speaker 4: in the offensive line and you go to the defensive side.

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Speaker 2: That's the biggest deal to me, right using it losing

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Speaker 2: their defensive coordinator to Seattle, that's a big deal.

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Speaker 4: Like he was the perfect guy for that defense where

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Speaker 4: he knew exactly what to do with Kyle Hamilton, like

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Speaker 4: they were so in unison of him playing that Ed

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Speaker 4: Reid role of wherever he wants to go. It worked

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Speaker 4: on the defense, he was always in the right spot,

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Speaker 4: which again we don't know yet what the new defense

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Speaker 4: will look like, but I do know it's gonna be

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Speaker 4: a loss up front right now, Ivan Patrick Queen not

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Speaker 4: having those veteran guys along the d line, that's gonna

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Speaker 4: be a big deal. So you know, to me, this

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Speaker 4: is a team that even if Zay Flowers does take

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Speaker 4: that next step and he does become a number one

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Speaker 4: receiver for this team and a guy they can trust,

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Speaker 4: it feels like they just lost too much.

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Speaker 2: Last year was just the year. Last year. I mean,

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Speaker 2: people don't remember because it feels so far away.

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Speaker 4: We had no offense, Like offense will kind of died

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Speaker 4: in the NFL, especially by the time it got to

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Speaker 4: January December, it really had fallen off. This was a

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Speaker 4: team it just did not matter like this. This team

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Speaker 4: was so good until they ran into that Chiefs team.

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Speaker 4: They literally were months of just dominating offense. It was

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Speaker 4: just Lamar could get any throw he wanted, and when

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Speaker 4: they wanted to run the ball, they could get any

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Speaker 4: yards that like, they were picking up four or five

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Speaker 4: yards every time they carried the ball. It was just

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Speaker 4: a machine. And then we talked about that defense last year.

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Speaker 4: They were so good at playing with the league. Once

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Speaker 4: they had a lead on you, you were done. Like it

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Speaker 4: really was the perfectly set up team last year, the Ravens.

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Speaker 4: And we see it all the time in football, it's regression,

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Speaker 4: like you have the really high year, the following year,

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Speaker 4: you take a step back because it's a lot of

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Speaker 4: new guys, usually lose coaches, right, teams are gonna just

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Speaker 4: be different the following year. They're the perfect example of it, right,

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Speaker 4: they were just so perfect last year. That was the year,

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Speaker 4: like they had the team to take down the Chiefs.

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Speaker 4: They had everything right there. They had team to take

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Speaker 4: down the forty nine ers, and it just didn't work

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Speaker 4: out right because unfortunately, weird things happen in the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: They kind of lost their mind there and they had

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Speaker 4: Lamar throwing the ball forty times and that's just not

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Speaker 4: who they want to be. So I honestly don't I

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Speaker 4: don't mind what Lamar is doing with the weight, right,

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Speaker 4: if that's what he feels comfortable playing at and if

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Speaker 4: he feels quicker, and that's that's better for Lamar. More

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Speaker 4: power to him because people are like, oh, you might

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Speaker 4: get hurt now that like, no player thinks that way.

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Speaker 4: No players think themselves, Well, if I lose twenty pounds

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Speaker 4: or ten pounds, I'm any more subtle injury.

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Speaker 2: That just that doesn't really cost their mind.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if there's science backing up either, because

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Speaker 4: if there was, I think their team would be putting

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Speaker 4: pressure on him to put back on some muscles. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: their win totals ten and a half. Chat that's a

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Speaker 4: rich for this division. We already talked about ten to one.

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Speaker 4: We wouldn't pay that, and their division odds at plus

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Speaker 4: one forty. I just went touch either there's another team

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Speaker 4: we liked bed this division. So yeah, Ravens small to

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Speaker 4: the under for me, right, I have him at ten wins.

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Speaker 4: It's not that big of a discrepancy. At ten and

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Speaker 4: a half, I just have him half a game under

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Speaker 4: that win total. So again, they won one point fo game.

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Speaker 4: I could easily see them hitting this win total. But

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Speaker 4: to me, I would not be playing the over. It

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Speaker 4: just doesn't not feel like there's value there.

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Speaker 1: They're a spot that team to me for this year.

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Speaker 1: John Harbaugh past twenty years one of the most profitable

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Speaker 1: coaches in the NFL, Bill Belichick, Mike McCarthy, Mike Zimmer,

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Speaker 1: Sean Payton, Murdy Schottenheimer, John Harbaugh, and then Jim Harbaugh.

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Speaker 1: But can you name, excuse me, the most profitable coach

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Speaker 1: week one past twenty years in the Action Network database

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Speaker 1: Sean McVeigh, John Harbaugh. If we look at just week one,

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Speaker 1: John Harbaugh is twelve and four against the spread and

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Speaker 1: has failed to cover just once in the last eight years. Reminder,

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Speaker 1: and I know which side we like already. Baltimore is

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Speaker 1: a field goal underdog at Kansas City in Week one.

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Speaker 1: Of course, we are taking the Ravens in Week one

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Speaker 1: against the Chiefs as three point underdogs. That's an simon.

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Speaker 1: There's no question on that. No, like there are gonna

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Speaker 1: be spots. Warren points out the rest John Harbaugh is

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Speaker 1: amazing on extra rest. If he's got ten or more

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Speaker 1: days to prepare. The Ravens are twenty seven or eight

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Speaker 1: straight up, two twenty thirteen and two against the spread.

296
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Speaker 1: Here are the four spots are gonna want to think

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Speaker 1: about betting the Ravens. In addition to Week one, they've

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Speaker 1: got nine days rest before Week two against the Raiders

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Speaker 1: ten before November seventeenth game against the Steelers, two weeks

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Speaker 1: before they play the Giants in mid December, and ten

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Speaker 1: days before they play the Browns in the last week

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Speaker 1: of the season. So, Warren, you talked about rest. I

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Speaker 1: know we don't love the Ravens futures, but there are

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Speaker 1: good spots here for them to think about, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 6: Absolutely, And and a couple of points to collab on

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Speaker 6: both what you guys have been saying. That John Harbaugh

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Speaker 6: record in Week one. I wonder if part of that

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Speaker 6: is the way that he gets this team to play

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Speaker 6: in the preseason. Right they approach the preseason with a

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Speaker 6: far different intention. They're trying to win all of these games.

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Speaker 6: That competitive fire is flowing in this team year and

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Speaker 6: a year out in the preseason. Maybe that does actually

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Speaker 6: have an advantage considering their number one coach team in

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Speaker 6: the ATS world in your action database, So that could

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Speaker 6: be a factor there.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely.

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Speaker 6: With regard to the spot edges, I want to add

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Speaker 6: that I list all the spot edges in the book.

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Speaker 6: And in addition to hopefully some of the three of

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Speaker 6: you guys are going to win a free book if

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Speaker 6: you just enter the code Action you'll get fifty percent

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Speaker 6: off the book special for your listeners today. Fifty percent

323
00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:52,480
Speaker 6: off the book drops the price down to the round

324
00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:54,920
Speaker 6: fifty just over fifteen dollars. I think is a great

325
00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:57,680
Speaker 6: value for you. As it relates to their defense. One

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Speaker 6: of the things that I will add is this defense

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Speaker 6: played with the number two lightest boxes on average last season,

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Speaker 6: and they were basically encouraging you to run the football

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Speaker 6: against them, and their defense was terrible against the run.

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Speaker 6: They ranked number thirty two in EPA per rush, dead

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Speaker 6: last in yards per carry, dead last, and success rate

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Speaker 6: on first half runs down the stretch of the season.

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Speaker 6: They were playing with these light boxes. They were able

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Speaker 6: to get away with that because they were playing with

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Speaker 6: a lead so much because of their first half offense

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Speaker 6: that you did not feel like you could run the

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Speaker 6: ball late in games at all, because you're playing from behind,

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Speaker 6: and you know that everything is built off of like

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Speaker 6: the game state that you're in. And I buy into

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Speaker 6: this so much, and when I am talking to coaches

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Speaker 6: talking about this about how you need to get out

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Speaker 6: to those leads and so like, let's say the Baltimore

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Speaker 6: Ravens struggle a little bit more this year at jumping

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Speaker 6: out to leads. That's going to impact that second half

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Speaker 6: defense a ton, and opponents are going to be able

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Speaker 6: to run on them a little bit more in those situations.

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Speaker 6: Last point to me on the team this year as

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Speaker 6: it relates to the weight cut. One of the reasons

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Speaker 6: that I think Lamar went ahead and did this. You know,

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Speaker 6: remember that picture that got tweeted out like a year

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Speaker 6: ago or so where Lamar has his gut sticking ice

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Speaker 6: calling a bag of popcorn in one hand, in a

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Speaker 6: soda and another you know, just made his rounds on Twitter.

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Speaker 6: Lamar's yards per carry on scrambles have gone down precipitously

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Speaker 6: year after year. He was averaging ten point four in

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Speaker 6: twenty nineteen, ten point four yards per carry on scrambles

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Speaker 6: last year. That was at seven point sorry in twenty

358
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Speaker 6: twenty two, that was at seven point nine. Last year,

359
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Speaker 6: that had dropped all the way down to six point six,

360
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Speaker 6: despite the fact that he faced seven man boxes on

361
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Speaker 6: just twenty seven percent of those scrambles, which is the

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Speaker 6: far far lower.

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Speaker 3: Rate than what he was facing before.

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Speaker 6: So right, more opportunities to run and he was scrambling

365
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Speaker 6: for fewer yards per carry when he blitzed and then scrambled.

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Speaker 6: He dropped from eleven point four yards per carry from

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Speaker 6: twenty nineteen to twenty twenty two all the way down

368
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Speaker 6: to four point seven yards per carry last year. So

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Speaker 6: those like quick instinct decisions to go ahead and scramble,

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Speaker 6: which are the number one most effective play in football,

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Speaker 6: They're more effective than any type of dropback, than any

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Speaker 6: type of route. If you have a designed pass play

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Speaker 6: where the quarterback drops back and then he decides based

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Speaker 6: on the look or the coverage or the passer so

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Speaker 6: he wants to scramble and finds an open run line.

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Speaker 6: There is not a play out there that is more

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Speaker 6: efficient at from an EPA perspective, from a yard per

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Speaker 6: play perspective, and Lamar was terrible in those relatively speaking

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Speaker 6: to earlier parts in his career. So if he can

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Speaker 6: get a little bit more of that burst and quickness

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Speaker 6: back those first few steps to get through that offensive

382
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Speaker 6: line and then make something positive on those scrambles, definitely

383
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Speaker 6: are going to help, because he's dropping back to pass

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Speaker 6: a lot more now in this offense than he was

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Speaker 6: in prior iteration. So but I agree completely with you, guys,

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Speaker 6: spot play as opposed to future play.

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Speaker 1: It'll be interesting to see how operators think about Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson's rushing totals game to game. Do they go by

389
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Speaker 1: what his numbers have sort of descended to or do

390
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,600
Speaker 1: they go by what the public opinion thinks and always

391
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Speaker 1: shade it a little bit higher because they know that

392
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Speaker 1: squares are generally going to bet Lamar Jackson over based

393
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Speaker 1: on his reputation. All right, we love the Bengals. Simon

394
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:30,919
Speaker 1: the Cincinnati Bengals game roaring back thirteen to one to

395
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Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. We bet them at twenty to

396
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Speaker 1: one early in the spring plus one forty five to

397
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Speaker 1: win the division already feels too low. Their season win

398
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 1: total is ten and a half. Their strength the schedule

399
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,960
Speaker 1: is sixth. Easiest Oline rank is twenty one. Really comes

400
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,800
Speaker 1: down to Orlando Brown Junior. Can he get back to

401
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,399
Speaker 1: the form that made him one of the better tackles

402
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,480
Speaker 1: in the leagues with the Ravens and with the Chiefs

403
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Speaker 1: last year in his first with the Bengals was a

404
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Speaker 1: middling D line rank is also middlenk thirteenth lost DJ reader,

405
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 1: which is tough. But they do have Trey Hendrickson who

406
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 1: is a dominant ed rusher and when you have that,

407
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 1: that helps raise the stakes for your performance. And they

408
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 1: also have lou An Aroumo, who was still one of

409
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Speaker 1: the most creative defensive coiners in the league. So they

410
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:26,199
Speaker 1: have to be one of the leading candidates along with

411
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Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers Simon for worse to first in the division.

412
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Speaker 4: Yeah, and we talk every year this is there's always

413
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Speaker 4: some lazy teams for us to have to do work on,

414
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Speaker 4: and this is one of those teams where it's just like, oh,

415
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Speaker 4: their star quarterback was hurt last year, now they have

416
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Speaker 4: a last place schedule. Don't don't overthink this, right, It's

417
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Speaker 4: it's really that simple sometimes. And you know, I think

418
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 4: you can touch on DJ Reader leaving is a big

419
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Speaker 4: deal to me, right that defense. I understand whether there's

420
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:54,159
Speaker 4: people that have questions about their defense. And then you

421
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:55,920
Speaker 4: can go to the offensive line and people have questions

422
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Speaker 4: about the offensive line as well. And you know, to me,

423
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 4: me and you talked about Chad, we think that organization

424
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 4: is failing them right now, right they're failing Joe Burrow.

425
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Speaker 4: Joe Burrow, he's already having major surgery on his wrist

426
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 4: right taking. I don't know if he took something to

427
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 4: have his leg and put into his wrist, and they

428
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,439
Speaker 4: said he had a fifty to fifty percent chance just

429
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Speaker 4: coming back from it, like having full motion in his wrist.

430
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Speaker 2: So not not.

431
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Speaker 4: Only did he beat those odds, he beat the odds

432
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Speaker 4: of him actually be able to come back and have

433
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Speaker 4: you know, power and grip on throwing the football again,

434
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Speaker 4: Like that was not something I was guaranteed, which I

435
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Speaker 4: couldn't believe, Like it felt like that shit in a

436
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 4: bigger story of this offseason. It really wasn't, because obviously

437
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 4: it worked out. Right, He's in camp, he's throwing dimes

438
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:38,640
Speaker 4: in the corner. It feels like he had two days

439
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 4: read a little bit of rust and now it's all gone.

440
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 4: And every clip I've seen it just looks like old

441
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 4: Joe Burrow. So no worry there, Right, So it's it

442
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:50,600
Speaker 4: does stink that their offensive line still has questions. Right,

443
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,400
Speaker 4: I seen your notes here. You have a little thing

444
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 4: about Orlando Brown, right, like is he gonna is he

445
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:57,400
Speaker 4: gonna be the guy we need him.

446
00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 2: To beat and really protect Joe Burrow.

447
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 4: We don't have the answer for that, but we do

448
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 4: have the answers for is you know, we took it

449
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 4: from Warren here, it's like the Ravens who have the

450
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,359
Speaker 4: six hardest schedule or the fourth art schedule because they

451
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,719
Speaker 4: have they're the one seed and at the first place schedule,

452
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 4: this team who was last has one of the easiest

453
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 4: schedule in Football's that's a huge deal of people like

454
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 4: that really does matter, especially when it's like, you know,

455
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:19,880
Speaker 4: the Ravens might have a run where they go back

456
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 4: to back. You know, they might go to Houston, they

457
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,119
Speaker 4: might go to the Bills, they might go to the Chiefs.

458
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,360
Speaker 4: The Bengals don't have that. They're literally playing you know,

459
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 4: the Patriots and like really bad fourth place teams from

460
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 4: last year. So yeah, it's all there, Chad. Obviously, we

461
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 4: don't want people to bet their future adds. We already

462
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,120
Speaker 4: told people to bet in the spring of twenty to one.

463
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:38,360
Speaker 4: Now it's down to thirteen, fourteen and one. A lot

464
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 4: of books. I wouldn't bet that yet because we've seen

465
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 4: historically Joe Burrow, I know, he's been injured in the

466
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:45,680
Speaker 4: past and they've come out slow because of that, and

467
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,400
Speaker 4: he's not dealing with that right now. Historically, though, they

468
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 4: do come out slow. This Bengals team and Joe Burrow.

469
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:52,639
Speaker 4: So you might be able to get better value in

470
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 4: a couple of weeks after the season starts. If they

471
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 4: start one and two or you know, one in three

472
00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 4: something crazy happens like that, you be able to get

473
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,439
Speaker 4: better value on that bet them betting right now divisional odds.

474
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,359
Speaker 4: Actually I don't I don't mind that chat plus one

475
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 4: forty divisional odds if you want to bet that. I

476
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 4: still think there's some value there the fact they're at

477
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 4: a plus number, just because I do think they're right

478
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 4: there the Ravens skill level wise. But then you factor

479
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 4: in the fact that they have that such an easier schedule,

480
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,119
Speaker 4: It's like, Okay, that gives that to me, makes them

481
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 4: the odds on favor for this division right now. Right

482
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:23,400
Speaker 4: I think they're the best team in the most complete team.

483
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 4: So yeah, if you want to take their over ten

484
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 4: and a half, you can. Depends on your book, it

485
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,119
Speaker 4: might be juiced and minus one fifty minus one forty.

486
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 4: To me, if I don't want to pay that big

487
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 4: because I've been paying big in a lot of other places,

488
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 4: I'll just I'll just take the plus one forty and

489
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 4: let that ride. So I like, I definitely like the

490
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 4: division odds better that I do like their win total.

491
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good point, Like I'm saying, it's a

492
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 1: little bit cheap, but I think that's just because in

493
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:52,719
Speaker 1: my head the value of them is so much higher

494
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,439
Speaker 1: and not the expectations are so much higher. So it

495
00:24:55,520 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 1: feels like plus one forty five. I'm just like, I

496
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 1: feel like at that number, i'd want more. You make

497
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 1: a really good point about Joe Burrow's career. So here's

498
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 1: something interesting. Thirty six twenty two and one against the spread. Overall,

499
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 1: His ATS struggles are early in the season, two and

500
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 1: six against the spread in his first two games of

501
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 1: the year thirty four to sixteen. The rest of the time,

502
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,160
Speaker 1: that two and six mark is tied with Kirk Cousins

503
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 1: for the worst mark of fifty nine quarterbacks since Joe

504
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 1: Burrow was drafted. The first two games this year Patriots

505
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 1: minus nine. There's a lot of reasons why we are

506
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 1: we might bet the Patriots.

507
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 2: We haven't got it week, we said have as per set,

508
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:53,920
Speaker 2: we're probably gonna do.

509
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 1: It, Yeah, exactly, and then they play the Chiefs and

510
00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 1: there's no line set yet. Warren thoughts on the Bengals.

511
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 1: I agree with Simon this is not an overthinking one.

512
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 1: Top three quarterback in the NFL who didn't play last

513
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 1: year kind of gets forgotten coming back playing the six

514
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 1: easiest schedule. Does nothing else really matters.

515
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think in this case as simple is better.

516
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 6: I will say that Presett better be starting week one.

517
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,160
Speaker 6: I've got some bets that were set. He was laying

518
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 6: like minus four hundred that Persett is in higher. I

519
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 6: think the Perssett will start week one. It's looking good,

520
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:36,399
Speaker 6: so I think he should be. He should be there.

521
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,680
Speaker 6: But if you look at Joe Burrow, like he only

522
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 6: played five true games where he was viewed as one

523
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,239
Speaker 6: hundred percent and the Bengals went four and one and

524
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 6: not just four and one last year. In those games,

525
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 6: think about who they played. The forty nine Ers, the Bills,

526
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 6: the Seahawks, the Cardinals. Now we know the Cardinals are down,

527
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,640
Speaker 6: there's other three teams fine, two of them exceptional.

528
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:57,400
Speaker 3: And then they.

529
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 6: Lost to the Texans thirty to twenty seven on a

530
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 6: field goal as time expired. Right, So, like that was

531
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 6: a back and forth game against CJ Stroud Light in

532
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:08,160
Speaker 6: the year when cjs drowd was absolutely bawling. So and

533
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 6: this is a team that I think the Bengals are solid.

534
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 6: I don't love the loss of Dj Reider. When we

535
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 6: talk about lou An Arumo, though he was put in

536
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 6: a difficult situation last year, and we kind of knew

537
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 6: that heading into the season. They lost both their starting

538
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 6: safeties from twenty twenty two. So you've got a defensive

539
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 6: coordinator that is used to changing things up. You know,

540
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 6: Simon knows this too. Like every single game plan that

541
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 6: he creates, he's sort of like Spags in a sense.

542
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 6: They come up with something, try something new, make those

543
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,679
Speaker 6: halftime adjustments. He's so good in the second half. That's

544
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 6: hard to do when you don't have good safeties there

545
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 6: when your safeties are both brand new as they were

546
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,880
Speaker 6: last year, and so it kind of was easier to

547
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 6: anticipate that they might take a little bit of a

548
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 6: step back, and they did. They fell off. They were

549
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 6: number nine and twenty two. They dropped all the way

550
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 6: down to number thirty two last year. When defending early downs,

551
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,160
Speaker 6: that's got to regress, that's got to improve a little

552
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 6: bit this upcoming season. I predict that they're going to

553
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 6: play the number one easiest schedule of passing offenses this year.

554
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:09,120
Speaker 6: In addition, they get to face inexperienced quarterbacks and first

555
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:12,159
Speaker 6: and second year players. Think about all the young quarterbacks

556
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 6: that lou An Rumo's defense is going to go up against, Bonnicks,

557
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 6: Jaden Daniels, Drake May. If Drake May plays, we'll see

558
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 6: it could be obviously be Jacoby percent instead hopefully Will Levis,

559
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 6: Aiden O'Connell and Bryce Young. I mean, so that's a

560
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 6: very nice schedule of like some younger, inexperienced quarterbacks that

561
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 6: they get to play. When you look at the nutshell

562
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 6: of the Cincinnati Bengals last year and put this into context,

563
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 6: they played the number one toughest schedule. They played eleven

564
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 6: games versus playoff teams, which was the most of any

565
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 6: team in the NFL since two thousand. They played fourteen

566
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 6: games versus teams that were over five hundred, That was

567
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 6: tied for the most of any team since two thousand.

568
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 6: Despite that brutal schedule, Despite that, Joe Burrow played only

569
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 6: five true games where he played healthy all the way

570
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 6: through missing or injured for twelve of seventeen games. The

571
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 6: Bengals went nine and eight and steer Neil still nearly

572
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 6: made the playoffs, and that is absurd.

573
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 3: This year, they're.

574
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 6: Playing the number six easiest schedule, the number one biggest

575
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 6: year over year improvement for any team. I love all

576
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 6: of that. The two things that I will say is

577
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:17,479
Speaker 6: like caveats besides DJ readers loss, Number one, that offensive line,

578
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 6: which you guys already hit on this team on pass

579
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 6: block win rate. They've ranked number thirty, number thirty, and

580
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 6: number twenty seven the last three years. They're the only

581
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 6: offensive line to rank twenty seventh or worse in both

582
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 6: twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two, and they still

583
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 6: didn't solve that last year in twenty twenty three. That

584
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 6: does not That is measured not by your quarterback. That

585
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 6: is measured just by how well does that offensive line

586
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 6: block the defensive line and allow them past them using

587
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 6: the dots and the chips and the players. So that

588
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 6: is obviously very concerning why they don't give Joe Burrow

589
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 6: better protection and emphasize that that's a concern.

590
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 3: Hopefully it improves this year.

591
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 6: Arguably can't get worse though, so that's the only positive,

592
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 6: but it needs to improve. And then it's this the

593
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 6: fact that, yes, while they play an easy schedule, and

594
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 6: we talked about this the last time that I was on, Well,

595
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 6: they play an easy schedule. They have the most difficult

596
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 6: prep and rest schedule from a timing perspective, and that's

597
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 6: what I look at a lot. They play the three

598
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 6: games in ten days, which isn't great, and they play

599
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 6: that late in the season. Also, they also play three

600
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 6: short week road games. Their game Week four in Carolina

601
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 6: is off of a Monday night football game. They play

602
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 6: Week ten in Baltimore that's a Thursday night game, so

603
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 6: that's on a short week, and Week fifteen they play

604
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 6: in Tennessee after a Monday night football game. No team

605
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 6: plays more than three short week road games this year,

606
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 6: and they played three short week road games last year,

607
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 6: So that's got to be frustrating from like a scheduling perspective.

608
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 6: Why the league continues to give the Bengals three short

609
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 6: week road games for back to back years when no

610
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 6: other team has to deal with that, that's pretty absurd.

611
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 6: They're also playing those game three games in ten days,

612
00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 6: which is annoying late in the season, so that provides

613
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 6: a little bit of difficulty for them. But overall, I

614
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 6: would agree that the upside is there. From a personal perspective,

615
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 6: I thought it was admirable what the coaches were able

616
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 6: to do with a backup quarterback in there. Some people

617
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 6: aren't in on Zach Taylor nearly as much. I was

618
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 6: not myself, but seeing what he was able to do

619
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 6: last year with their backup quarterbacks have made me like

620
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 6: the play calling and the offensive mind of Zach Taylor

621
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 6: a little bit more. I would be this would be

622
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 6: a team that I'd be rather buying on than selling

623
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 6: this year. I think that there are going to be

624
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 6: spots for them. The only thing I will say if

625
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 6: you're looking to buy them late, and Simon was saying,

626
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 6: maybe they start one to two, one and three those

627
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 6: first that first month of the season. They're playing New England, Carolina,

628
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 6: and Washington, three teams that have either young, inexperienced quarterbacks

629
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 6: or aren't viewed.

630
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:51,479
Speaker 3: As good teams.

631
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 6: That toughest game is going to be that game against

632
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 6: the Kansas City Chiefs in Week two, So they could

633
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 6: start out a little bit hot, and if you're better

634
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 6: over and win total, you hope that they do because

635
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 6: that stretch run down later and on in the season

636
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 6: is a little bit more difficult. But this is going

637
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 6: to be a fun team to watch this year and

638
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 6: I really hope for the good of your bets, potentially

639
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 6: my bet if I decide to tail you on this one,

640
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 6: as well as the league in general. We want Joe

641
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 6: Burrow to be good this NFL. The league is so

642
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 6: much more fun when Joe Burrow is balling out and

643
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,719
Speaker 6: playing hard and is healthy, and so I hope that

644
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 6: that's the case all the way through and this offensive

645
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 6: line protects him a little bit better.

646
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 1: Well, it's kind of amazing that the Bengals have now

647
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 1: spent multiple years with Joe Burrow injured at the end

648
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 1: of the year or injured coming into training camp, and

649
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 1: they still have now figured out how to prioritize protecting

650
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. So yeah, for all of our sakes, let's

651
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 1: make sure that the Bengals. Let's hope that the Bengals

652
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 1: have done that in some capacity. Cleveland Cleveland forty to

653
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 1: one plus six hundred. The win total is eight and

654
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 1: a half. Their O line rank is fourth Wyatt Teller

655
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 1: Joel Patonio, both top twenty rated guards, Ethan Pozick, top

656
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 1: top fifteen center. Their offensive line is built to do

657
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 1: exactly what Kevin Stefanski wants it to do. It is

658
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 1: why The Browns continued to perform for most of the

659
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 1: year last year, even after they had so many injuries

660
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 1: with Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson. D Lion rank is fourth.

661
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 1: Miles Garrett defending Defensive Player of the Year, also argue

662
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 1: like he is one of the few defensive linemen who

663
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 1: is worth a point against the point spread. This is

664
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 1: like JJ Watt twenty twelve level dominance. Look, it's going

665
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 1: to come down to Deshaun Watson, and I should say

666
00:33:56,000 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 1: the Browns have the third hardist schedule, so it's not

667
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:05,959
Speaker 1: going to be an easy run for them. What do

668
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 1: we think of Deshaan Watson right now?

669
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:11,800
Speaker 4: Simon, I mean everything you see it's same old Deshaun

670
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:14,320
Speaker 4: Watson in camp. Can't hit, can't hit guys in stride,

671
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 4: He's overthrowing guys when they're all open deep. It's just

672
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 4: we talked about whatever happened to Chat. It's just not

673
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 4: the same guy. And there's nothing more glaring than seeing

674
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 4: Joe Flacco step into that offense and look like an

675
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 4: all pro. Like all the pieces are so set up

676
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 4: there for Deshaun Watson to succeed. It's like the best

677
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 4: offensive line you can dream of. Marii Cooper. You forgot

678
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:37,920
Speaker 4: how great of a player he was until Joe Flacco

679
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,799
Speaker 4: came back. It's just like that's the that's the thing

680
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 4: that just stands out to me. It's like all the

681
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 4: weaponers are there. I mean, Joe Flack, woun't even have

682
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 4: Nick Chubb and they were still running the ball with

683
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 4: I think it might have been four was running for

684
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 4: like five six yards of pop. Like that oldfensive line

685
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 4: is incredible. You didn't even touch on it. That old

686
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,239
Speaker 4: line coach is gone. Like that's a big deal to me.

687
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 4: They might be forth ranked. Yeah, I guarantee you next

688
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:01,879
Speaker 4: year chat we're talking about this, they'll be back down

689
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 4: to eight or ten. Right, That's how big of a

690
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 4: deal I think having a coach like that lead them.

691
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 2: So this is the team I don't know what to

692
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:08,360
Speaker 2: do with.

693
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 4: Last year, me and you loved they're over. We were

694
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 4: all in on it because we were just in love

695
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 4: with their defense. We're in love with their offensive line,

696
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 4: and we thought, Okay, Deshaun Watson's had a full offseason,

697
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 4: he'll get right now, right like he's he should legitter

698
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 4: should be gone. We got lucky he got hurt because

699
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 4: I mean we probably would have got there with the

700
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 4: defense defense by itself, but you know, we needed Joe.

701
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 2: Flacker to come in.

702
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 1: It was gonna be close.

703
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 2: It was gonna be close.

704
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 4: So I feel on them right now, Like I look

705
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:35,719
Speaker 4: at the book, they're over eight and a half is

706
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 4: minus won forty minus went thirty five on bet three

707
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:41,840
Speaker 4: sixty five. Right now, I'm tempted to take it just

708
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 4: because of this defense. Like Schwartzman, he's just got these

709
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:47,799
Speaker 4: guys humming, and like Miles Garrett, I can't see him

710
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,240
Speaker 4: letting this team be below nine wins.

711
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 2: It's like, I do believe in that defense that much, but.

712
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 4: It's just hard with Watson, he's so inconsistent, and it's

713
00:35:57,480 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 4: we touched on.

714
00:35:58,040 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 2: They have a tougher schedule as well.

715
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 4: But you know, I'm very hesitant to take this under

716
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 4: I guess I'm indecisive at this point, but their divisional

717
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 4: odds wouldn't touch them. I still think this is either

718
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 4: Ravens or Bengals. The books got this right, having the

719
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:16,719
Speaker 4: Ravens and Bengals so much higher, you know, both them

720
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 4: plus one forty and then having these guys plus six hundred,

721
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 4: and I think Pittsburgh's like plus eight hundred, that's how

722
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 4: it should be in this division. It's like those two

723
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,360
Speaker 4: guys are definitely the kings of this division.

724
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 2: So just viewing this.

725
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:32,000
Speaker 4: Browns team, I'm sad to say that it's like if

726
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 4: they had a guy, if they had maybe kept Baker,

727
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,319
Speaker 4: who knows, right, Chad, Like that's the saddest part of

728
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 4: all of this. It's like, you know, they try to

729
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 4: do something that felt smart and right, right, going to

730
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 4: get a guy who's proven, who's done it for a

731
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 4: couple of years. Little do they know that he might

732
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,280
Speaker 4: just be mentally broken, which is what we talked about Watson.

733
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 4: So I just I want to get behind this team

734
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:53,840
Speaker 4: because I love what they have so much on the

735
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:56,400
Speaker 4: defensive side and their offensive line and their offensive weapons.

736
00:36:57,200 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 4: But it's just not doing it for me right now.

737
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 4: So I'm going to lean towards the over, but I'm

738
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 4: not putting anything on it.

739
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 1: Bill Callahan was the offensive line coach last year who

740
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 1: you've talked about, who's one of the most highly regarded

741
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 1: offensive line coaches of the past twenty years in the NFL,

742
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 1: went to join his son, Brian Callahan is the offensive

743
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 1: line coach supporting him and the Tennessee Titans. Callahan Brian

744
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:25,440
Speaker 1: is the new head coach there. Yeah, Deshaun Watson. The

745
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 1: best game he had last year was when his shoulder

746
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 1: nearly fell off and he was clearly shot up with

747
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 1: so many plain killers that he finally played well, but

748
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 1: his season was done after that. Under sixty percent completion

749
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 1: percentage with the Browns versus over sixty seven with Houston,

750
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:47,400
Speaker 1: five point three touchdown rate with the Texans, four point

751
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:51,360
Speaker 1: one touchdown rate with the Browns, pascer rating over one

752
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 1: hundred with Houston, near eighty with Cleveland Warren. It feels

753
00:37:57,120 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 1: like they missed a window. They had their shot last

754
00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 1: year if DeShawn had been able to be Toshaun, with

755
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 1: the way things played out and with how good this.

756
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 6: Defense is well, especially now that they have to pay

757
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 6: Deshaun Watson this exorbitant rate from a salary cap perspective

758
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:18,320
Speaker 6: that kicked in this season continues for the next several years.

759
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 6: The thing that I struggle with, and it's a great

760
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 6: callback to Baker Mayfield time and with regards to what

761
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:28,879
Speaker 6: this team was looking like back in those early years.

762
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 6: Remember Kevin Sefanski came in and the COVID year was

763
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 6: his first season coaching, and they went to the playoffs

764
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 6: and he got Baker Mayfield to play somewhat well, and

765
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:38,919
Speaker 6: he won Coach of the Year that year. In twenty

766
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:41,800
Speaker 6: twenty one, of the things that they were doing really

767
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 6: well that year ended to the next year was they

768
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 6: were doing what Kevin Sefanski brought from Minnesota, which was

769
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:50,799
Speaker 6: a lot of heavier sets and play action out of

770
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 6: these heavier sets, and they rarely used eleven personnel. That

771
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 6: it was thirty six percent usage of eleven personnel on

772
00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:59,280
Speaker 6: early downs in the first three quarters in twenty twenty

773
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:01,880
Speaker 6: and two one, who was still only thirty seven percent

774
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 6: once they got Watson. They've ratcheted that up massively. Last

775
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:07,919
Speaker 6: year they were all the way up at sixty six

776
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 6: percent early downs in the first three quarters. They used

777
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:14,720
Speaker 6: three plus wide receivers on seventy one percent of early

778
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 6: downs in the first three quarters. That was the sixth

779
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 6: highest rate.

780
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:18,280
Speaker 3: In the NFL.

781
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 6: The thing is, Deshaun Watson was much better when he

782
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 6: was using two tight end sets rather than of twelve

783
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:29,839
Speaker 6: personnel rather than of eleven personnel. He averaged nearly two

784
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 6: more yards per pass attempt when he was passing the

785
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 6: ball with two tight ends out on the football field,

786
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 6: his EPA per play was plus one three. His EPA

787
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,959
Speaker 6: per play in eleven personnel was minus point oh two

788
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 6: early downs.

789
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:43,280
Speaker 3: In the first three quarters.

790
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 6: So this is the situation that I struggle with is

791
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:51,120
Speaker 6: I think Stefanski is as a Ford thinking good coach,

792
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:54,279
Speaker 6: but he's doing what he thinks Watson wants, which is

793
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:57,279
Speaker 6: a lot of spread and eleven personnel. But Watson has

794
00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:00,800
Speaker 6: been better from twelve and Sefanski's offense is better from twelve.

795
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:04,240
Speaker 6: If you if you forget all the quarterbacks Stefanski arrives

796
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 6: in twenty twenty, throw them all into the mix, take

797
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 6: their name tags off, all the different quarterbacks that have

798
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,359
Speaker 6: played in Cleveland. If you look at what he's done

799
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 6: over those four years, twenty twenty one, twenty two to

800
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:18,880
Speaker 6: twenty three, eleven personnel, they're minus point zero five EPA

801
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:22,320
Speaker 6: twelve personnel, they are plus point one point eight eleven personnel.

802
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 6: They average six point eight yards per tempt eleven twelve personnel,

803
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 6: they average eight point one. We're talking about from the

804
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 6: number two twenty two offense all the way to the

805
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 6: number seven offense or the number twenty five offense to

806
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:37,160
Speaker 6: the number five offense. When they're in twelve personnel versus eleven,

807
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 6: they just are better out of twelve. The Fanski's offense

808
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 6: is decidedly better there and and Watson has been better

809
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:45,799
Speaker 6: as well, but they just don't want to go in

810
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 6: that route it looks like, and so I just have

811
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 6: concerns about, like what this offense is going to look like.

812
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 6: And I certainly don't think they're going to use a

813
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:55,400
Speaker 6: lot of twelve. They were in the Auk sweepstakes like

814
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:58,839
Speaker 6: they wanted another wide receiver, and so they're trying to

815
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 6: lean into If Watson doesn't.

816
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:02,240
Speaker 3: Play well, we are all screwed.

817
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 6: And we need Watson to play well because we gave

818
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 6: him all this guaranteed money. Let's figure out ways to

819
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 6: get great wide receivers in here. As it relates to

820
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 6: the other side of the ball on the defense.

821
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 1: Hold on me, let me just cut you off for

822
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 1: one sec. That is a great point that I have

823
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:20,319
Speaker 1: not heard anybody make about the eleven personnel versus the

824
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 1: twelve personnel and Deshaun Watson, because it speaks to so

825
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:29,359
Speaker 1: many things. It speaks to maybe what Kevin Stefanski is

826
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 1: thinking about how he wants to manage the quarterback. If

827
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:37,000
Speaker 1: it speaks to maybe what's Kevin Stefanski is feeling because

828
00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 1: his owner gave gobs and gobs of guaranteed money to

829
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson. That is fascinating way to think about this

830
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 1: team in a dysfunctional context. Brilliant love it.

831
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:59,279
Speaker 6: Yeah, No, it's something that I've been thinking about just

832
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 6: by looking at personnel and just Knowingfanci I was on

833
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:06,880
Speaker 6: him Coach of the Year in twenty twenty. I thought

834
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:10,320
Speaker 6: his system would mesh well with Baker Mayfield. Obviously, Baker

835
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:13,760
Speaker 6: didn't work out and he wasn't perfect here, but it's

836
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 6: just they've changed a lot of things to acquiesce to

837
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 6: Deshaun Watson's preferred style of play. It's not really the

838
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 6: bag for Stefanski and it hasn't worked out for Watson either.

839
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 6: On the other side of the ball, Yes, great defense,

840
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 6: and yes, Jim Schwartz has been very good from the

841
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 6: way that he's calling this defense. If you look though,

842
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 6: at the quarterbacks that they played last year, they played

843
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 6: a lot of bad quarterbacks last year, and they had

844
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 6: a lot of success against those bad quarterbacks. The positive

845
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 6: is that they were terrible from a health perspective, they

846
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:47,480
Speaker 6: were twenty seventh, so maybe they'll be better from a

847
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 6: health perspective this upcoming season. I still think the defense

848
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 6: is going to be great. And if you look visually

849
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:54,839
Speaker 6: at the way that this schedule is laid out, it's

850
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:58,360
Speaker 6: like after that Week one game against the Dallas Cowboys

851
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:03,799
Speaker 6: in Cleveland, there's two real defined pockets of easy opponents

852
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:06,520
Speaker 6: back to back to back, and then there's like several

853
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 6: streaks of very difficult opponents, and they end the season

854
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 6: and a very difficult run playing against the Chiefs, against

855
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 6: the Bengals, against the Dolphins, at least that game's in

856
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 6: Cleveland where Tua struggles out in the cold potentially, and

857
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 6: then against the Ravens. Those are four playoff caliber teams

858
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:26,400
Speaker 6: that they're going to play down the stretch, So you know,

859
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 6: if you have back them over in their win total

860
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 6: and then you have the ability to hedge a little

861
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 6: bit late if they still aren't there, that's something that

862
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:37,959
Speaker 6: could be to your advantage. But this is I agree

863
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 6: with something to say this is a tough team to

864
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 6: peg from a wins perspective, just because they have a

865
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:46,480
Speaker 6: lot of the pieces, so much is just dependent upon

866
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:49,839
Speaker 6: is the quarterback going to work this year, and from

867
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,920
Speaker 6: a skill perspective, you would say he's got to, he's

868
00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 6: bound to. It can't continue like this, But you just

869
00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 6: never know. And I'm interested to see what ends up

870
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,360
Speaker 6: happening if we get to see his back up in

871
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:02,799
Speaker 6: there Jamis Winston this upcoming season at all.

872
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 1: All right, the Pittsburgh Steelers.

873
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:07,200
Speaker 5: Y'all game today?

874
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 2: You ain't new to us no more, now, you.

875
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:10,359
Speaker 5: Know what I mean?

876
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 1: Steelers fifty to one to win the super Bowl plus

877
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:15,800
Speaker 1: way eight hundred to win the division. Eight and a

878
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 1: half is the season win total, hardest schedule in the

879
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:27,279
Speaker 1: NFL O line eighth overall. But I think there's a

880
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 1: lot of questions, a lot of questions, especially on the

881
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:36,240
Speaker 1: right side uh D line eighth as well. TJ. Watt

882
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 1: is in a defensive lineman, but he's obviously a top

883
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 1: two or three edge rusher and defensive player when he's healthy.

884
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 1: The team is just different when he is on the field.

885
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:48,160
Speaker 1: We know that, we bet that Cameron Hayward still a presence,

886
00:44:48,600 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 1: showed some signs of age last year. Look, Warren, it's

887
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 1: the base of question. Mike Tomlin has never had a

888
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:03,399
Speaker 1: losing season as a head coach. It has been guaranteed

889
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 1: money to bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers with Mike Tomlin

890
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 1: as the head coach, Russell Wilson is the starting quarterback,

891
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 1: Justin Fields is the backup Warren Sharp? Is this the

892
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 1: year you fade the Steelers' win total?

893
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 6: So I think the NFL absolutely has set it up

894
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 6: for that to be the case?

895
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 3: Is it though?

896
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 1: Boy?

897
00:45:28,840 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 6: They absolutely did. And actually Mike North, who is the

898
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 6: head guy from a scheduling perspective, his immediate interviews after

899
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 6: the schedule was released, he already was talking about this storyline.

900
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:43,760
Speaker 6: This is a baked in storyline for the NFL season.

901
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:46,879
Speaker 6: He already was talking about how tough that Steelers run

902
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:48,800
Speaker 6: is late in the year and will they be able

903
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:52,080
Speaker 6: to continue this streak for Mike Tomlin? And so they

904
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:55,839
Speaker 6: stacked this schedule. I have never seen before from week

905
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 6: eleven onward that a team plays every single one of

906
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:02,879
Speaker 6: their divisional games from a week eleven onward. I've calculated back,

907
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 6: I don't see the ever happening previously. And then you

908
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:09,120
Speaker 6: take into consideration the only two teams that they play

909
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:11,879
Speaker 6: that aren't in their division for week eleven onward are

910
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 6: the Chiefs and the Eagles right the three times potentially

911
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 6: trying to get three times Super Bowls in a row.

912
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:20,920
Speaker 6: The Chiefs and the Eagles, who are obviously a good

913
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:22,640
Speaker 6: team year in a year out, one that went to

914
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 6: the Super Bowl in twenty twenty two. So it's a

915
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:29,720
Speaker 6: brutal schedule down the stretch. They have to bank wins early.

916
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 6: If they're going to come close to this at all,

917
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:35,240
Speaker 6: they have to bank wins. And their schedule is easier

918
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 6: to start, but it's not super easy. They're still playing

919
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:39,399
Speaker 6: the Dallas Cowboys, They're still playing the Jets of Aaron

920
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:41,880
Speaker 6: Rodgers is there. They still have to play John Harbaugh's

921
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:45,200
Speaker 6: La Chargers, so and the Falcons if they're going to

922
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:47,520
Speaker 6: be a turnaround team this year. So they've got those

923
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:49,839
Speaker 6: teams in the first half of the schedule, and then

924
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 6: they got that ridiculous run late, so that's going to

925
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:57,000
Speaker 6: be a challenge for them. People are really critical of

926
00:46:57,160 --> 00:47:00,360
Speaker 6: Arthur Smith because what they saw down in at Las Alta,

927
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 6: and I understand that, especially from the fantasy perspective. A

928
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:07,000
Speaker 6: lot of guys who had Jean Robinson and were really

929
00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:09,320
Speaker 6: disappointed at the way he was utilized in some of

930
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:12,400
Speaker 6: the talking points that came out in the press conferences.

931
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 3: I get it some people don't really like Arthur Smith.

932
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:17,279
Speaker 6: The only thing I'll say is this, There's no way

933
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:19,319
Speaker 6: Arthur Smith is any worse than what's been going on

934
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:21,400
Speaker 6: in Pittsburgh for the last several years. I mean, the

935
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:24,879
Speaker 6: oftensive coordinating situation in Pittsburgh has been terrible. I'll throw

936
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 6: this trivia point out to you guys.

937
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 3: Both through Week four, the.

938
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 6: Pittsburgh Steelers offense, led by Matt Canada, had twenty six

939
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 6: drives in the first half of games. Twenty six first

940
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 6: half drives. How many made it to the red zone.

941
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 6: Of the twenty six drives in the first half the

942
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 6: first four weeks, how many made it to the red zone.

943
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:44,720
Speaker 1: Zero.

944
00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 3: I was gonna say, like, very close, You're very close.

945
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 6: One one out of twenty six drives actually made it

946
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:53,920
Speaker 6: to the red zone in the first half. This team

947
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:57,279
Speaker 6: was not creative, they were not aggressive, and they were

948
00:47:57,320 --> 00:47:59,920
Speaker 6: far too predictable. With Matt Canada as the play call.

949
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 6: The difference that's going to happen is threefold this year,

950
00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:05,720
Speaker 6: in my opinion, based upon what I know about Arthur Smith.

951
00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 6: Number One, a lot more play action. We are going

952
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 6: to see a ton more play action. The Pittsburgh Steelers

953
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:13,360
Speaker 6: are FRAN thirty one in play action usage rate for

954
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 6: multiple years in a row. The Falcons used play action

955
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:18,759
Speaker 6: at the number four highest rate. We are going to

956
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:20,520
Speaker 6: see a lot more play action in the offense.

957
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:21,879
Speaker 3: That's first. Number two.

958
00:48:22,080 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 6: We are going to see a lot more heavier personnel

959
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:25,320
Speaker 6: groupings in Pittsburgh.

960
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 2: Now.

961
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 6: I don't know if they end up getting Ayuk and

962
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:30,280
Speaker 6: if that changes anything or not, but Arthur Smith loves

963
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:34,160
Speaker 6: to operate out of heavier personnel. They used eleven personnel

964
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 6: last year. If that's three wide receivers at the lowest

965
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:39,240
Speaker 6: rate of any team in the NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers

966
00:48:39,239 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 6: were at number seven in highest usage rate seventy one

967
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:45,920
Speaker 6: percent for the Steelers seventeen percent the exact inverse from

968
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:48,759
Speaker 6: a number perspective, seventeen percent for the Falcons, which was

969
00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 6: lowest in the NFL. They used the highest rate of

970
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:52,839
Speaker 6: two tight end sets. So we're going to see more

971
00:48:52,880 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 6: two tight ends out on the field, and then I

972
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 6: think we're going to see deeper passes down the field.

973
00:48:57,040 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 6: The Atlanta Falcons love to run the ball early. That's

974
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 6: not going to change the Steelers were running it a lot.

975
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 6: The Falcons are going to run. Sorry, the Steelers are

976
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:06,759
Speaker 6: running a lot before Arthur Smith. They're gonna run it

977
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 6: a lot after Arthur Smith. He likes to run the football.

978
00:49:09,160 --> 00:49:11,879
Speaker 6: He runs the ball out of heavier sets to set

979
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:14,719
Speaker 6: up deeper shots down the field. And that's one of

980
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:16,920
Speaker 6: the things the Atlanta Falcons did a lot last year.

981
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:19,040
Speaker 6: They were number four in rate of passes that were

982
00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:22,719
Speaker 6: traveling downfield, whereas the Denver Broncos I'm saying Denver because

983
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:25,279
Speaker 6: of Russell Wilson, were dead last. And this is where

984
00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:27,359
Speaker 6: I think Justin Fields actually could play a role if

985
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 6: you look at the last two years. I know Russell

986
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:31,800
Speaker 6: Wilson is famous for this moon ball down the field,

987
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:35,400
Speaker 6: but actually Justin Fields is better throwing the ball deeper

988
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:36,240
Speaker 6: down the field.

989
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 3: Chad.

990
00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:39,080
Speaker 6: I mean, you know from your experience with him, he

991
00:49:39,120 --> 00:49:41,120
Speaker 6: has his faults and he's gotten his sacks, and they

992
00:49:41,160 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 6: haven't had a lot of receivers to work with in Chicago,

993
00:49:44,080 --> 00:49:46,520
Speaker 6: but he has been better than Russell Wilson as over

994
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 6: the last two years combined at throwing the ball deep

995
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:50,960
Speaker 6: down the field, and I think that they're going to

996
00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:54,000
Speaker 6: be able to gain some edge with his mobility and

997
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:57,759
Speaker 6: his scrambling, which is better obviously than Russell Wilson. So

998
00:49:58,560 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 6: I'm interested to see how this quarterback battle ultimately plays out.

999
00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 6: But I just don't think that this offense is suddenly

1000
00:50:05,040 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 6: going to be a disaster because they've got Arthur Smith.

1001
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 6: It's been a disaster before. Arthur Smith can only help

1002
00:50:10,560 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 6: improve things a little bit. But this schedule is so daunting.

1003
00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 5: It's a fine line between, you know, drinking wine and

1004
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:18,120
Speaker 5: squashing greats at.

1005
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,319
Speaker 1: The end of the season. You pointed it out, this

1006
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:30,280
Speaker 1: is the schedule. Ravens, Browns Bengals, Browns Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals. Simon,

1007
00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:36,280
Speaker 1: It's like the schedule makers went full WWE on Mike Tomlin.

1008
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:41,759
Speaker 1: What they know his pension for beating the season win

1009
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 1: totals and winning as an underdog there. It's like they're

1010
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:48,960
Speaker 1: daring us to play the Steelers and daring the Steelers

1011
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:50,640
Speaker 1: and Mike Tomlin to continue this streak.

1012
00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:51,399
Speaker 3: Man.

1013
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:53,600
Speaker 5: We make the simple complex in this business, don't we.

1014
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:55,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, And I joke with you, it's this is

1015
00:50:55,840 --> 00:50:58,080
Speaker 4: a team that when I make my annual trip to

1016
00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:00,760
Speaker 4: Vegas in May, I picked the over It's just something

1017
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 4: I do every year. And it's the first time in

1018
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:05,400
Speaker 4: my life as a professional better that I had all

1019
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 4: the pros around me being like, no, this is the

1020
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 4: year to go under.

1021
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 2: And I hate looking at the schedule ahead of time

1022
00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 2: like that and trying to predict wins and loss his chat.

1023
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:14,520
Speaker 4: But like you said, you look at that schedule, you

1024
00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:16,360
Speaker 4: know you don't need to start doing predictions, right. You

1025
00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:18,440
Speaker 4: can just look at it and go, oh, that's brutal.

1026
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:23,239
Speaker 4: Then you factor in last year, things just bounced right

1027
00:51:23,280 --> 00:51:25,120
Speaker 4: for this team. Yeah, like they call teams when they

1028
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:27,800
Speaker 4: had their backups. In even their win against the Ravens.

1029
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:30,040
Speaker 4: I think the Ravens were winning thirteen to three in

1030
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:32,520
Speaker 4: that game. They're dominating the entire game. They had a

1031
00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:35,040
Speaker 4: fluke like you know, fifty yard touchdown, then the I

1032
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:36,759
Speaker 4: think they had to turnover get another touchdown all a

1033
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:39,080
Speaker 4: sudden they win that game. It's like that's where tomlin

1034
00:51:39,120 --> 00:51:41,399
Speaker 4: Mix is living. He muddies the water and they can

1035
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:44,359
Speaker 4: get these kind of crazy wins. I want to love

1036
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 4: them too, because Arthur Smith is a guy that you

1037
00:51:46,600 --> 00:51:48,239
Speaker 4: know me and you made a ton of money off

1038
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:50,480
Speaker 4: him when he was with Tennessee. Like that combo with

1039
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:53,000
Speaker 4: him of Rabel, that was the perfect comblo. I think

1040
00:51:53,000 --> 00:51:55,319
Speaker 4: he has that once again with Tomlin. It's like his

1041
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:57,520
Speaker 4: type A personality will fit well with a guy who's

1042
00:51:57,560 --> 00:51:59,799
Speaker 4: even more type A. It's like, no, no one gets

1043
00:51:59,840 --> 00:52:02,839
Speaker 4: better than Tomlin. So to me, I wanted to love

1044
00:52:02,880 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 4: this team, want to love this defense, want to love

1045
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:08,080
Speaker 4: the improvements they made, but the quarterbacks just don't do

1046
00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:11,400
Speaker 4: it for me. Like Russell Wilson, he's in the perfect

1047
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 4: system last year with the perfect head coach like Sean Payton.

1048
00:52:15,719 --> 00:52:17,120
Speaker 4: It doesn't get much better than having a guy like

1049
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 4: him with you. And he was totally out of him.

1050
00:52:19,200 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 4: He was willing to eat sixty million dollars in dead

1051
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:23,279
Speaker 4: money this year just to get this guy all fat

1052
00:52:23,320 --> 00:52:25,759
Speaker 4: team and out of that locker room. Justin Fields a

1053
00:52:25,760 --> 00:52:28,320
Speaker 4: guy I mean you believed in. We kept thinking you

1054
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:31,680
Speaker 4: take that next step, and he just is not. He's

1055
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 4: not worked on the footwork that needed to work on.

1056
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:35,799
Speaker 4: He still has happy feet, And I mean, you had

1057
00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 4: this incredible stat last year that just hung with me

1058
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:40,680
Speaker 4: all off season. When I tried betting this team, no

1059
00:52:40,719 --> 00:52:43,440
Speaker 4: one struggled more in the fourth quarter than Justin Fields.

1060
00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 4: It was incredible for the first three quarters, he'd excel.

1061
00:52:47,000 --> 00:52:48,799
Speaker 4: The fourth quarter he fell off a cliff. He was

1062
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 4: by far the worst quarterback in the league. And fourth

1063
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 4: quarter win rate and success rate. So this is a

1064
00:52:54,200 --> 00:52:57,520
Speaker 4: team that I understand why people want to blindly bet this.

1065
00:52:57,640 --> 00:52:59,520
Speaker 2: It's it's eight and a half to the win total.

1066
00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:02,040
Speaker 4: It's plus twenty to want to take the over minus

1067
00:53:02,080 --> 00:53:04,760
Speaker 4: one fifty to the under, I'm gonna take the under.

1068
00:53:04,840 --> 00:53:08,160
Speaker 4: Like this this team has seven seven wins, six wins

1069
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 4: written all over it. Just not even the fact the

1070
00:53:10,040 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 4: way it ends this year, it's just a whole schedule,

1071
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:14,480
Speaker 4: Like their whole schedule is just brutal. And I don't

1072
00:53:14,480 --> 00:53:16,719
Speaker 4: think they're gonna have all the injury luck they've kind

1073
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:19,000
Speaker 4: of had these last couple of years. Like Tomlin, you

1074
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:20,760
Speaker 4: just said it, Chad, it's just a lot of averages.

1075
00:53:20,800 --> 00:53:23,480
Speaker 4: This guy's been playing with crazy luck and house money.

1076
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:25,480
Speaker 4: And he's also such a great coach, like we talked

1077
00:53:25,520 --> 00:53:28,600
Speaker 4: about in our luck rankings. But it has to finally

1078
00:53:28,640 --> 00:53:31,240
Speaker 4: catch up to him at some point. The hardest division

1079
00:53:31,239 --> 00:53:34,880
Speaker 4: of football to me, if everyone's staying healthy, these teams

1080
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:37,080
Speaker 4: are still what we think they're gonna be. How do

1081
00:53:37,120 --> 00:53:38,640
Speaker 4: you not pick this team to be the fourth team

1082
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:40,880
Speaker 4: in this division. It's just too many questions to me

1083
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:41,520
Speaker 4: at this point.

1084
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:44,759
Speaker 5: It's a broad moment right here for you youngsters, let's live.

1085
00:53:45,520 --> 00:53:48,720
Speaker 4: Makes sense that you know, the public is still taking

1086
00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:50,600
Speaker 4: their over, but it makes even more sense that this

1087
00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:52,960
Speaker 4: is like the team that professionals are circling. So now

1088
00:53:53,000 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 4: again not one of my bigger bets. Like my biggest

1089
00:53:55,000 --> 00:53:58,360
Speaker 4: bets still bangles to win this division. But I'm on

1090
00:53:58,400 --> 00:53:59,759
Speaker 4: the under eight and a half here, Chad.

1091
00:54:00,239 --> 00:54:03,680
Speaker 5: When you're out of time, we all know it, you

1092
00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:06,160
Speaker 5: know what I mean, And so I just go hard

1093
00:54:06,520 --> 00:54:09,480
Speaker 5: all day until we at that point where we know it.

1094
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:13,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, you want to back Tomlins so badly because you

1095
00:54:13,560 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 1: see what he's done over the years with quarterbacks who

1096
00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:18,680
Speaker 1: had no business being in the NFL.

1097
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:21,360
Speaker 5: I'm gonna cut you off because I laugh at that

1098
00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:24,399
Speaker 5: all the time, like that's what the hell we pay

1099
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 5: to do.

1100
00:54:25,239 --> 00:54:28,239
Speaker 1: But he also had much better defenses than right, we're

1101
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:31,080
Speaker 1: talking about the Duck Hodges years and even last year.

1102
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:34,760
Speaker 1: You always have to ask the question, is he making

1103
00:54:34,760 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 1: his own luck or is he blessed by the stars? Right?

1104
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:43,000
Speaker 5: I try to keep it real simple. Football is our game.

1105
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:44,280
Speaker 5: Our business is winning.

1106
00:54:44,880 --> 00:54:48,960
Speaker 1: Steelers are Week one dogs at the Falcons. The Steelers

1107
00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:52,799
Speaker 1: have won at a sixty three percent clip against the

1108
00:54:52,840 --> 00:54:57,920
Speaker 1: spread as an underdog under Mike Tomlin, making him the

1109
00:54:57,960 --> 00:55:03,960
Speaker 1: most profitable coach as a in the past twenty years.

1110
00:55:04,560 --> 00:55:09,560
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin is the best coach against the spread period

1111
00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:12,520
Speaker 1: the past twenty years.

1112
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:14,640
Speaker 5: That's the greatest of all time. Look at your word.

1113
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 1: He knows something, he does something, He is able to

1114
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:22,360
Speaker 1: get his team motivated. That One of my favorite TikTok

1115
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:26,800
Speaker 1: videos right now is like the five best Mike Tomlin moments,

1116
00:55:26,840 --> 00:55:30,000
Speaker 1: and one of them is he's walking through the tunnel

1117
00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:33,040
Speaker 1: to the game and there's a fan who screams like, yeah, Mike,

1118
00:55:33,160 --> 00:55:34,719
Speaker 1: let's go get him, and he goes, let me the

1119
00:55:34,719 --> 00:55:37,840
Speaker 1: fuck alone. I'm working here, Like the guy is just

1120
00:55:38,120 --> 00:55:41,560
Speaker 1: intense and he is ready, and we love that. We

1121
00:55:41,640 --> 00:55:44,200
Speaker 1: know Matt Mitchell loves to put the Mike Tomlin drops

1122
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:49,759
Speaker 1: in the show. Let's Go Mack. He is our most animated, favorite, brilliant,

1123
00:55:50,120 --> 00:55:55,439
Speaker 1: motivating tactician of a coach. Like you cannot discount how

1124
00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:56,680
Speaker 1: brilliant he is a coach.

1125
00:55:57,120 --> 00:55:59,600
Speaker 5: So that's why the people kill me for catch phrases.

1126
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:03,960
Speaker 5: But I'm trying to capture a thought succacly without damn

1127
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:06,400
Speaker 5: talking too much, because I just hate talking.

1128
00:56:06,600 --> 00:56:07,440
Speaker 2: I'd rather do.

1129
00:56:08,200 --> 00:56:10,000
Speaker 1: Which is why it makes it scary to bit that

1130
00:56:10,120 --> 00:56:12,800
Speaker 1: under eight and a half, And like Warren be to

1131
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 1: the fire in your answer, you did not tell me

1132
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:17,440
Speaker 1: if you were going over under eight and a half

1133
00:56:17,480 --> 00:56:18,400
Speaker 1: on the Steelers.

1134
00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:22,000
Speaker 3: No, so I would be going under if I had to.

1135
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:25,120
Speaker 6: And here's one other factor that you guys mentioned, And

1136
00:56:25,719 --> 00:56:27,920
Speaker 6: I wasn't thinking of this before, but it's perfect that

1137
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:32,880
Speaker 6: stat Simon mentioned about Justin Fields that you shared earlier, Chad,

1138
00:56:34,000 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 6: the Steelers were nine and two in one score games

1139
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:40,600
Speaker 6: last year. Think about what that means. If Justin Fields

1140
00:56:40,719 --> 00:56:43,879
Speaker 6: ends up getting inserted as the starting quarterback and then

1141
00:56:43,920 --> 00:56:46,320
Speaker 6: he is struggling in the fourth quarter of these games,

1142
00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:49,200
Speaker 6: Suddenly it's almost impossible for you to go nine and

1143
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:51,680
Speaker 6: two in these close games if he is one of

1144
00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:54,759
Speaker 6: the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in those situations, and

1145
00:56:54,800 --> 00:56:58,080
Speaker 6: certainly from a luck factor standpoint, you have the Steelers.

1146
00:56:58,120 --> 00:56:59,560
Speaker 6: I've got on one of the pages in the book

1147
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:03,280
Speaker 6: the Critical and Game Deciding Stats, Steelers were plus eleven

1148
00:57:03,280 --> 00:57:05,600
Speaker 6: in turnover margin last year. They were plus eleven in

1149
00:57:05,680 --> 00:57:08,799
Speaker 6: sack margin, plus two in turnover margin, and plus four

1150
00:57:08,800 --> 00:57:09,760
Speaker 6: and penalty margin.

1151
00:57:10,080 --> 00:57:11,440
Speaker 3: And if they don't do.

1152
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:13,200
Speaker 6: All of those things again this year, and the biggest

1153
00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:16,880
Speaker 6: one to me is the sacks. I mean, turnovers are

1154
00:57:16,880 --> 00:57:20,560
Speaker 6: obviously a big factor too. Those will decide games more

1155
00:57:20,600 --> 00:57:24,320
Speaker 6: than any other statistic, but a quarterback like Justin Field's

1156
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:29,200
Speaker 6: getting inserted there and taking more sacks. Sacks are absolute

1157
00:57:29,280 --> 00:57:32,000
Speaker 6: drive killers. The rate at which you score points when

1158
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:34,360
Speaker 6: you take a sack on a drive is cut into

1159
00:57:34,440 --> 00:57:36,880
Speaker 6: a third. You score points at a third of the

1160
00:57:36,960 --> 00:57:39,080
Speaker 6: rate if you take a sack on a drive. And

1161
00:57:39,120 --> 00:57:42,200
Speaker 6: we know his propensity to take sacks, that's going to

1162
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:47,600
Speaker 6: potentially impact turnovers and then his fourth quarter performance absolutely frightening.

1163
00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:51,800
Speaker 6: And then you factor in that schedule. So I believe

1164
00:57:51,960 --> 00:57:56,240
Speaker 6: that the schedule makers have this hope that they can

1165
00:57:56,320 --> 00:57:58,200
Speaker 6: play it up as long as possible. In a perfect

1166
00:57:58,200 --> 00:58:01,320
Speaker 6: world for the NFL and schedule makers, it would come

1167
00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:04,320
Speaker 6: down to they've got them playing on Christmas. You know,

1168
00:58:04,520 --> 00:58:06,480
Speaker 6: it will come down to those last couple of weeks

1169
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:09,720
Speaker 6: of the season. Can Mike Tomlin win the next two

1170
00:58:09,800 --> 00:58:12,600
Speaker 6: games and get to over five hundred like this is

1171
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:14,680
Speaker 6: gonna be something You're gonna turn on your TV on

1172
00:58:14,760 --> 00:58:17,320
Speaker 6: Christmas and you were going to hear the announcer say

1173
00:58:17,360 --> 00:58:20,200
Speaker 6: something like that. I firmly believe they'll be right underneath

1174
00:58:20,280 --> 00:58:20,960
Speaker 6: that mark.

1175
00:58:22,080 --> 00:58:22,800
Speaker 3: As they enter.

1176
00:58:23,040 --> 00:58:25,280
Speaker 6: They're gonna need to win this game to be able

1177
00:58:25,320 --> 00:58:27,240
Speaker 6: to get there, and they're not gonna get it done

1178
00:58:27,360 --> 00:58:31,040
Speaker 6: against they play. I think the Kansas City Chiefs, either

1179
00:58:31,080 --> 00:58:33,080
Speaker 6: the Chiefs or the Ravens on Christmas, I forget. I

1180
00:58:33,120 --> 00:58:36,480
Speaker 6: think it's the Chiefs on the on Christmas. In week seventeen,

1181
00:58:36,920 --> 00:58:39,120
Speaker 6: it's it's gonna be it's gonna be brutal for them.

1182
00:58:39,200 --> 00:58:42,320
Speaker 6: So this is a narrative that's gonna play out. I

1183
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:44,920
Speaker 6: think Simon's guys are right. This is the year to

1184
00:58:45,600 --> 00:58:47,120
Speaker 6: go the opposite way on the Steelers.

1185
00:58:47,320 --> 00:58:49,200
Speaker 1: So you mentioned the Steelers were nine to two in

1186
00:58:49,240 --> 00:58:51,520
Speaker 1: one score games. That was the best mark in the NFL.

1187
00:58:51,800 --> 00:58:54,720
Speaker 1: They've been over five hundred straight up in one score

1188
00:58:54,800 --> 00:59:00,800
Speaker 1: games for eight straight years and five hundred straight up

1189
00:59:00,960 --> 00:59:05,400
Speaker 1: or better in ten consecutive seasons. In fact, the best

1190
00:59:05,760 --> 00:59:09,120
Speaker 1: straight up one loss mark in one score game since

1191
00:59:09,160 --> 00:59:17,240
Speaker 1: two thousand and seven. Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, New England. We know

1192
00:59:17,640 --> 00:59:22,800
Speaker 1: indian New England had Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Pittsburgh had

1193
00:59:22,840 --> 00:59:26,920
Speaker 1: Ben Roethlisberger, obviously, but he got hurt a lot. So

1194
00:59:26,920 --> 00:59:29,160
Speaker 1: what they really had was Mike Tomlin. So this is

1195
00:59:29,200 --> 00:59:32,160
Speaker 1: a is you're betting the under, and a lot of

1196
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:34,240
Speaker 1: people feel that way. As Simon said, if you're betting

1197
00:59:34,280 --> 00:59:39,280
Speaker 1: the under, hold your nose, yeah, close your eyes, hang

1198
00:59:39,360 --> 00:59:42,320
Speaker 1: on to the handrail of that roller coaster, and you

1199
00:59:42,400 --> 00:59:45,720
Speaker 1: better just pray because you are betting at your peril

1200
00:59:46,400 --> 00:59:49,280
Speaker 1: against Mike Tomlin. There's got to be a great drop here.

1201
00:59:49,960 --> 00:59:53,280
Speaker 5: We all talk too much. Sharp dues can just see

1202
00:59:53,320 --> 00:59:55,760
Speaker 5: it because sharp dues don't care what you say anyway.

1203
00:59:56,040 --> 00:59:58,439
Speaker 5: They just watching, you know what I mean?

1204
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:04,000
Speaker 1: All Right, We're in Sharp. That was fantastic. Everyone should

1205
01:00:04,080 --> 01:00:07,760
Speaker 1: check out Sharp Football Analysis. We appreciate Warren offering the

1206
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Speaker 1: Simon and I will return with our next episode of

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Speaker 1: the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page this Tuesday

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01:00:58,360 --> 01:01:03,920
Speaker 1: one five pm Eastern to talk AFC East with special

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1226
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