WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 11, 2024 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:06.800 Boom, Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.920 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.240 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.920 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:37.479 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Sarah Hunt of Alpine 0:00:37.520 --> 0:00:40.560 Saxon Woods, writing this, we still see a land grab 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:43.960 and a spending boom on the backbone of the AI infrastructure. 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:46.479 With valuations at high levels, there will need to be 0:00:46.600 --> 0:00:50.680 further evidence that spending does not pause. Sarah joins us 0:00:50.680 --> 0:00:52.479 now for more. Sarah, good morning. It's good to see you. 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:53.000 Good morning. 0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:54.960 Are you nervous about what we might hear from some 0:00:55.000 --> 0:00:57.080 of their customers later this earning season. 0:00:57.600 --> 0:00:59.200 I think we're still in a player. I mean, it's 0:00:59.200 --> 0:01:01.480 interesting because I saw it. Note that I think Goldman 0:01:01.560 --> 0:01:04.160 put out on the fact that maybe they were spending 0:01:04.200 --> 0:01:05.959 too much and I'm thinking, how do you say that 0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:07.600 right now? It's a little bit early to say you're 0:01:07.600 --> 0:01:09.560 spending too much. It reminds me of, you know, just 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:12.080 to date myself, the dark fiber discussion in two thousand 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:13.679 about we're putting in too much dark fiber. 0:01:13.840 --> 0:01:16.000 Well, the Internet absorbed it all. So the question is 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:16.679 what is. 0:01:16.720 --> 0:01:18.600 Enough infrastructure And I don't think we have the answer 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:20.880 to that yet. It's just a lot of large numbers problem. 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:23.240 Now to build on that shit. We reward the Apples. 0:01:23.600 --> 0:01:26.280 This was ultimately Golden and Cole for having some big 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:28.840 stock buy back or reward those that are investing all 0:01:28.880 --> 0:01:31.720 this money in the future, some big, big outlays that 0:01:31.760 --> 0:01:33.840 were seeing of the likes of Mets or other names too. 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:35.880 I think that's a little bit just trying to split 0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:37.800 the reality of you're rewarding the companies that have a 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:39.720 lot of cash, what they do with that cash, as 0:01:39.720 --> 0:01:42.920 long as it's not something that seems absolutely ridiculous. Is 0:01:42.959 --> 0:01:44.720 still we have a lot of cash, and that's where 0:01:44.760 --> 0:01:46.520 I want to be. So I think that, you know, 0:01:46.560 --> 0:01:48.480 for Apple, that makes more sense for them right now, 0:01:48.760 --> 0:01:50.400 and for the other companies it makes sense to do 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:52.360 what they're doing so I don't think unless it's you know, 0:01:52.480 --> 0:01:55.080 it's not some acquisition of something that's making no money 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:56.600 or something along those lines. 0:01:56.680 --> 0:01:58.640 What do you make of us Constraang his argument that 0:01:58.760 --> 0:02:01.920 essentially there is a very positive story to tell with 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:04.040 a lot of these AI companies and the sort of 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:08.000 big techniqus, but sentiment has gotten so overinflated and people 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:11.040 are expecting such big beats that in the near term 0:02:11.120 --> 0:02:14.440 it just seems nearly impossible for them to exceed those 0:02:14.480 --> 0:02:15.600 to the same degree. 0:02:15.840 --> 0:02:16.520 Do you agree. 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:18.880 I think this is the difficult part right now, because 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:21.320 there will come a point where all the spending on 0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:24.639 infrastructure will slow down, or the delta will go negative, 0:02:25.000 --> 0:02:27.560 and or you haven't got enough use cases for the 0:02:27.600 --> 0:02:30.400 other companies that are supposed to start getting more profitable 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:32.720 on the back of AI. And I think when that happens, 0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:34.840 and I think it may happen, then you're going to 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:37.079 start to see people really worry about valuations. I don't 0:02:37.080 --> 0:02:38.560 think that we're there yet because I think that you're 0:02:38.560 --> 0:02:40.400 still spending a lot of money, but I think that 0:02:40.440 --> 0:02:43.160 the concern will be, Okay, we've built in all this 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:45.480 infrastructure serve like the dark far argument, we have all 0:02:45.520 --> 0:02:47.440 this stuff, but we can't use it enough yet. But 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:49.880 it will get used and it will ultimately. I think, 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:52.200 just not sure the use cases are what we're thinking 0:02:52.200 --> 0:02:52.880 about right now. 0:02:52.960 --> 0:02:55.400 It feels like it's almost easier to speculate on whether 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:57.240 AI is a bubble or not a bubble and what 0:02:57.280 --> 0:02:59.639 the potential is, rather than talk about the other four 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:01.960 hundred ninety three names and how hinge they are to 0:03:02.000 --> 0:03:03.800 an economic cycle that's really questionable. 0:03:04.000 --> 0:03:06.280 I want to go back to Delta. You mentioned Delta. 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:08.720 It was supposed to be the darling of a cycle 0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:11.480 that benefited people who have the money to fly around 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:14.200 the world and are doing so in record numbers. Is 0:03:14.240 --> 0:03:16.600 that sort of a signal to you that there is 0:03:16.639 --> 0:03:20.600 some fundamental problem in consumers that will percolate to a 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:23.320 broader number of potentially consumer facing companies. 0:03:23.639 --> 0:03:25.079 Well, I'd love to look at the release because I 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:27.000 didn't get a chance to go through it very carefully. 0:03:27.000 --> 0:03:29.480 But is the problem the revenue line is the problem? 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:32.160 The cost line you mentioned earlier, the extra costs. This 0:03:32.200 --> 0:03:34.560 has been the question about what happens when inflation comes 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:36.720 down to margins start to get squeezed. If this is 0:03:36.720 --> 0:03:38.440 more of an issue of margin squeeze, and it's not 0:03:38.480 --> 0:03:40.800 a problem on the economic front. It's more a problem 0:03:40.800 --> 0:03:43.080 on an individual company front because everyone's got to figure 0:03:43.080 --> 0:03:44.840 out how to deal with their costs. A lot of 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:47.040 cost labor costs went up in the last couple of years. 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:49.080 Those contracts are only starting to come through. I think 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:51.440 that's part of it. So they might be blaming it 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:54.680 on cutting too much capacity, But having flown recently, I 0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:56.600 don't see any excess capacity anywhere. 0:03:56.840 --> 0:03:58.640 Who asks price in power right now? 0:03:58.640 --> 0:03:59.960 Why'd you see that? If you can pick it into 0:04:00.040 --> 0:04:00.560 stream right now? 0:04:00.560 --> 0:04:03.480 Who has pricing power? We mentioned Costco earlier today putting 0:04:03.520 --> 0:04:05.840 up membership fees. Where do you see that pricing power? 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:07.720 I think the pricing power is coming through in the 0:04:07.760 --> 0:04:10.480 technology space. I think that Nvidia is getting better prices 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:12.040 than they were getting before because they're the. 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:12.920 Only ones who have it. 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:15.360 I think any place where something is in short supply, 0:04:15.480 --> 0:04:17.400 you have some pricing power, and I think on the 0:04:17.480 --> 0:04:19.760 technology side you have more pricing power. I would argue 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:21.839 that the airlines do have pricing power, having paid for 0:04:21.880 --> 0:04:24.279 airline tickets, but I would also say that it depends 0:04:24.320 --> 0:04:26.599 on where you're going, and it depends on the timing 0:04:26.640 --> 0:04:29.160 of that. But I think that in the end, any 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:31.760 place where there is any kind of capacity constraint, you 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:33.239 have pricing power. 0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:34.880 What is it about airlines that everyone just left the 0:04:34.920 --> 0:04:36.760 rants about. I mean, I could join you too. It's 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:39.960 cust a fortune and it's miserable. Why is it always miserable. 0:04:39.960 --> 0:04:41.960 Because we are at a point where so many people 0:04:42.000 --> 0:04:45.040 are flying that even as they're increasing capacity the airlines, 0:04:45.240 --> 0:04:46.680 the airports can't handle it. 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:48.960 The airlines can't handle it. There's nowhere to sit. It's hot. 0:04:49.000 --> 0:04:50.640 I mean, I can go on and on. 0:04:50.680 --> 0:04:52.800 I remember when I was a KIAUS to go to 0:04:53.040 --> 0:04:55.880 the Midwest frequently because my family lived there. We flew 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:59.599 on Midwest Express which they had you know, glass little 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:01.680 salt upper shakers and home baked. 0:05:01.920 --> 0:05:03.000 It was a very nice experience. 0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:04.680 Everything was first class and it went out of business. 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:07.400 But you raise this question about how much you end 0:05:07.480 --> 0:05:10.279 up with cost structures that are. 0:05:10.080 --> 0:05:11.919 Only now getting bigger. 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:15.120 Do you think that people are under mess estimating the 0:05:15.160 --> 0:05:18.880 margin compression that we could potentially see this cycle, because yeah, 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:21.880 the pricing power is in Nvidia, but it's not necessarily 0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:24.640 in Delta. I mean it kind of is, but we 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:26.520 thought it was, but it isn't. Necessarily it's some of 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:29.400 these other areas that are also dealing with fundamentally higher 0:05:29.440 --> 0:05:30.719 costs that haven't come down. 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:33.600 I think that is we were concerned that there was 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:35.880 going to be a margin compression earlier than there has been, 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:37.719 So it might just be that there's a lag on 0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:40.479 that margin compression because the costs haven't really caught up yet. 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:41.240 Everything. 0:05:41.360 --> 0:05:43.600 You know, we're such immediate people the price changes today. 0:05:43.600 --> 0:05:46.640 We can see this today in business cycles, things take longer, 0:05:46.640 --> 0:05:48.680 contracts take longer to play out, It takes longer for 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:51.200 people to figure out exactly what their cost structure is 0:05:51.200 --> 0:05:52.880 going to look like. Fuel prices have come down, that 0:05:52.880 --> 0:05:54.760 should have been a help to them, but it also 0:05:54.880 --> 0:05:57.279 might be that because they were using fuel that they'd 0:05:57.279 --> 0:05:59.280 bought at higher prices, it won't come down until the 0:05:59.279 --> 0:06:00.920 third quarter. So I think that there's a lot of 0:06:01.320 --> 0:06:04.400 rolling cost situations that we can't see because we're not 0:06:04.480 --> 0:06:07.560 those corporations and we're looking at things from that Wall 0:06:07.560 --> 0:06:09.960 Street immediacy level of I need to know today what's 0:06:09.960 --> 0:06:12.359 happening tomorrow, And I think that that's something that is 0:06:12.400 --> 0:06:14.440 going to have to play out in the next several months, 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:16.560 and we're starting to see whether or not that's going 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:18.720 to happen. I don't know if Delta is a bellweather 0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:20.360 or if that's just a one off for them. 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:22.599 What are you more interested in today, CPI or the 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:24.320 president's press conference at five point thirty. 0:06:24.920 --> 0:06:29.480 Yes, I think that both of them are important, right. 0:06:29.520 --> 0:06:31.760 I think that you had a guest on earlier today 0:06:31.800 --> 0:06:34.400 who said that one number isn't the most important thing. Well, 0:06:34.400 --> 0:06:36.880 it's not the most important thing unless it goes very 0:06:36.960 --> 0:06:38.880 much in the wrong direction, right, So CPI went very 0:06:38.960 --> 0:06:40.320 much in the wrong direction, it would be the most 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:42.760 important thing. I think that there has been chaos since 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:44.800 the original debate, and I don't think that that chaos 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:45.400 is yet over. 0:06:45.640 --> 0:06:47.680 I think all the discussions you were having earlier. 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:49.200 I mean, none of what anybody is saying is makes 0:06:49.240 --> 0:06:51.720 sense except tell me something I want to hear, And 0:06:51.800 --> 0:06:53.480 until I hear what I want to hear, I'm not 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:56.000 believing what you're saying. And so that's where we seem 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:57.640 to be. I don't know that that's going to make 0:06:57.640 --> 0:06:59.640 the press conference today is going to make that any different. 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:02.400 I don't think to the extent I mean, it's it's unfortunate, 0:07:02.440 --> 0:07:04.120 But I don't think to the extent that you know, 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:05.919 it's not wrong that age is not something you. 0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:08.320 Can take away noise or news. Do you think it's 0:07:08.360 --> 0:07:11.440 real news for this market the considerations that are percolating 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:14.480 over the last few weeks, to the to the. 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:16.760 Extent that we've seen both of these people as president, 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:18.640 and the market has reacted well to both. I think 0:07:18.640 --> 0:07:21.640 I understand why people say whoever's president is noise, but 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:24.680 political chaos is not just noise. And if it gets 0:07:24.680 --> 0:07:27.240 too chaotic, I think that that is going to take 0:07:27.280 --> 0:07:30.040 people's risk appetite down to some degree. But we don't 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:31.840 know that yet, and we don't know what kind of 0:07:32.000 --> 0:07:34.160 you know, decisions people are facing right now. 0:07:34.280 --> 0:07:35.760 We know where one side of the ledger is. 0:07:35.800 --> 0:07:37.120 We don't yet know where the other side of the 0:07:37.160 --> 0:07:39.160 ledger is, even though he keeps saying he is that 0:07:39.200 --> 0:07:40.920 side of the ledger, and nobody seems to believe him. 0:07:40.920 --> 0:07:42.160 We're waiting for him to make a decision. 0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:44.920 Sarah, you know that, Sarah Hunt a vampid snackson words, Sarah, 0:07:44.920 --> 0:07:56.080 It's going to see it. I'm Maris in Washington with 0:07:56.200 --> 0:07:59.640 a special guest, the Democratic congresswoman Haidie Stevens of Michigan. 0:07:59.720 --> 0:08:00.760 I am as I see you. 0:08:01.960 --> 0:08:06.160 Thank you so much, John, and Congresswoman Miss Stevens, you're 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:09.240 also going to be in Michigan tomorrow with Biden. Yes, 0:08:09.280 --> 0:08:11.480 I am a starch supporter of him, and you're not 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:12.240 backing down. 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:13.120 Why. 0:08:13.720 --> 0:08:16.240 I'm really enthusiastic about this campaign and what we've built 0:08:16.280 --> 0:08:19.560 in Michigan. I've been rigorously on it since the beginning 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:22.480 of the year. Detroit is at its lowest levels of 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:26.640 unemployment and fifty years we have manufacturing growth. I have 0:08:26.680 --> 0:08:31.280 a really popular governor, Gretchen Whitmer, who's endorsed this president, 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:34.000 who's a co chair of his campaign, who's met with 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:37.040 him since some of the debate fallout and is sticking 0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:37.560 by him. 0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:39.280 And the commitment to stand up for. 0:08:39.320 --> 0:08:43.920 Women's reproductive rights, to tackle our gun violence epidemic that 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:46.480 has hit us pretty hard in Michigan, and. 0:08:46.440 --> 0:08:47.840 There's a team right. 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:51.880 We have built an incredible ground operation and it's hard 0:08:51.920 --> 0:08:54.200 work with persuasion voters, with turnout. 0:08:54.640 --> 0:08:55.439 I don't want to. 0:08:55.360 --> 0:08:57.680 Turn away from this though now I want to keep going. 0:08:58.120 --> 0:09:01.319 Fifteen some weeks left, bring this over the finish line, 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:04.680 and I believe and know that the Biden Hearris ticket 0:09:05.080 --> 0:09:06.640 is the one to get this done for us. 0:09:06.840 --> 0:09:09.280 Do you think he's the best candidate though, I do. 0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:13.199 You see the polling today from Washington Post ABC, more 0:09:13.240 --> 0:09:16.920 than fifty six Democrats say six and ten independents that 0:09:17.000 --> 0:09:19.720 he should step beside. Is it that he's the best 0:09:19.760 --> 0:09:23.959 candidate at this moment or there's concern about basically telling 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:25.640 a sitting president, the leader. 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:26.800 Of the party, that it's. 0:09:26.640 --> 0:09:27.160 Time to go. 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:30.600 Look, the stakes are high. The other thing that the 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:34.760 polling is showing you is that people are freaked out 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:39.000 about Donald Trump coming back, what that means for young women, 0:09:39.559 --> 0:09:42.640 what that means for our economy that spiraled out of 0:09:42.679 --> 0:09:46.679 control when he was president during a global pandemic that 0:09:46.840 --> 0:09:48.920 was not well handled by him. 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:54.200 And the polling also shows people think Trump would be 0:09:54.200 --> 0:09:56.520 better when it comes to things like the economy, which 0:09:56.520 --> 0:09:58.520 our polling shows is still the number one issue. 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:01.360 It is the number one issue, and it's not just 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:04.440 look at the facts today. Look, pulling is absolutely important. 0:10:04.840 --> 0:10:06.800 I have to look at pulling. And I have had 0:10:06.880 --> 0:10:09.560 polls that have led me down a path of success, 0:10:09.559 --> 0:10:12.440 and I've had polls that have led me wrong before. 0:10:12.520 --> 0:10:16.640 But what I know is that people are concerned about Trump. 0:10:16.800 --> 0:10:19.520 I mean, I hear that on the ground in Oakland County, Michigan. 0:10:19.640 --> 0:10:24.240 It is pulpable. People want to win. These stakes are high. Obviously, 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:28.400 when President Biden was gathering his delegate votes and campaigning 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:31.400 in the small primary that he had earlier this year, 0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:34.200 it wasn't one hundred percent clear every step of the 0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:36.719 way that Trump was going to be the nominee. Now 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:39.439 he's hiding in mar A Lago. We don't see him 0:10:39.480 --> 0:10:43.240 really very much. He's come to Michigan maybe once or twice, 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:46.960 a few surrogates here and there. Pretty quiet from him. 0:10:47.320 --> 0:10:49.960 And in part we've got a president who's governing, who's 0:10:50.080 --> 0:10:54.320 leading NATO, who's got the backing of international leaders who 0:10:54.360 --> 0:10:57.720 support his plan. We have, by the way, a major 0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:00.640 foreign aid package that got done in a divice government. 0:11:00.880 --> 0:11:02.840 That's exactly what Joe Biden asked. 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:04.719 I think the concern is not so much can he 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:07.439 lead right now? It's what does the next four years mean? 0:11:07.480 --> 0:11:10.040 And you mentioned Governor Whitmer. She was on CNN last 0:11:10.080 --> 0:11:12.199 night and she was asked should he take a cognitive test? 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:15.040 Her answer was it wouldn't hurt, do you agree with 0:11:15.080 --> 0:11:15.520 the governor. 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:18.800 Yeah, well, Trump joked around about his own cognitive tests 0:11:18.840 --> 0:11:21.280 and you know that he was some super genius and 0:11:21.440 --> 0:11:24.080 was spouting off things. Look, anything the president needs to 0:11:24.120 --> 0:11:28.640 do to reassure people. I have been recently with him 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:32.400 when he announced tariffs on Chinese evs and critical minerals. 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:34.280 I was in the Oval office with him for an 0:11:34.280 --> 0:11:37.720 extended period of time. I haven't seen one decision coming 0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:41.840 out of this administration under his leadership that concerns me. 0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:45.520 I also know that we have got a message for 0:11:45.600 --> 0:11:48.880 the next four years. It's clear people are spooked. It's 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:52.480 also clear, though, people are united to do whatever it 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:54.880 takes to beat Donald Trump, and we've got the campaign 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:55.280 to do it. 0:11:55.440 --> 0:11:56.040 We really do. 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:58.720 You've spent time with him recently, You're going to be 0:11:58.760 --> 0:11:59.720 with him tomorrow. 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:01.480 You said, there's not a. 0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:05.560 Decision that makes you rethink this that's coming from President Biden. 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:08.080 Not a decision you see that concerns you. But what 0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:12.560 about his speech, the way he walks actual deterioration is health. 0:12:12.679 --> 0:12:13.720 Have you seen any of that? 0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:15.160 Not? 0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:17.079 Really, to be honest with you, I mean, look, I 0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:19.400 can't tell people to unsee what they saw on the 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:23.360 debate I thought he answered it. Honestly, Look, it's not 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:27.440 news that he is the age that he is. I 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:31.640 look at this and I see flawless execution from this administration, 0:12:32.240 --> 0:12:35.880 COVID relief, infrastructure dollars, not just bills that have gotten passed, 0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:40.080 but things that are being executed flawlessly, like the Chips Act, 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:43.840 which is so important to our Michigan manufacturing economy. Something 0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:47.840 that President Biden has championed his campaign message is let's 0:12:47.840 --> 0:12:48.640 finish the job. 0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:49.840 There is more to do. 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:54.000 It's promises made, promise is kept. There are more things 0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:56.800 that we need to accomplish here that are on the horizon. 0:12:57.160 --> 0:13:01.760 Paid leave, funding for our public schools, support for our educators, 0:13:01.800 --> 0:13:05.480 the next generation. This is a real campaign. And look, 0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:08.400 this is a tough moment. It's been quiet. We've had 0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:11.560 twenty four to seven Trump TV and his convictions and 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:14.439 all that insanity. I don't want to go back to that. 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:17.000 My voters in Michigan are terrified of going back to that. 0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:22.440 The former president pretends that he supports unions, goes to 0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:26.520 a non union shop. We worked for the UAW, we 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:30.160 got the UAW endorsement. We've had this whole process here 0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:31.320 where weeks out from. 0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:32.080 Our own convention. 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:35.040 We got to stand up to this Trump leaders. 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:37.600 Our concerned Washington Post this morning, there was a behind 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:41.680 the scenes meeting yesterday Sean Fain. President Biden went and 0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:43.880 stood on a picket line with this man. He is 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:45.440 now voicing his concerns. 0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:47.960 So when you're in Michigan. 0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:50.160 And you're here from union leaders, Trump is chipping away 0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:55.600 at these people Michigan, potentially Biden can lose. That's what congressman' 0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:57.440 Slockin even said on a recent donor call. 0:13:57.960 --> 0:14:01.839 Yeah, look, we want the win campaign and our union 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:07.520 leaders they're deploying their members to knockdoors to evangelize this effort. 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:10.800 And that's what you do in closed door meetings. You 0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:13.240 do say hey, what's our plan, how we're going to 0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:17.760 do this. We're the Democratic Party, you know, differing opinions, 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:22.040 expression of opinions. I've had four to five Republican members 0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:25.040 of Congress from Michigan who've either left their party, impeached 0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:26.280 the former president, or. 0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:27.160 Got voted out. 0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:30.280 I mean, give me a break, Like, this is how 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:33.240 it works in our party. It's a good and healthy thing. 0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:35.000 And I'm going to tell you something else that I 0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:38.040 know about Joe Biden. He is the ultimate comeback king. 0:14:38.400 --> 0:14:43.200 He's the most underestimated individual in American politics. He always 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:46.200 has been. He's got a good north star. He's tapped 0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:49.320 into his faith, He's been through things that have tested 0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:53.560 him for this moment. And yes, he's our older, wiser president. 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:55.920 He has not steered us wrong, and he has got 0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:59.200 a vision alongside this amazing team that he has to 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:00.800 continue to win the future for US. 0:15:00.960 --> 0:15:03.600 Commerceman Haley Stevens, thank you so much for your time. 0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:15.000 With us around the table. Steve for Shudo of Missoo, 0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:18.040 I'm still with us. David Kelly of JP Morgan Asset Management. 0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:20.520 David just got this from Neil Data of Renmack. The 0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:23.120 Doves have what they need. It's time to cut get 0:15:23.160 --> 0:15:24.880 on with it. Do you agree? 0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:27.160 No, I think they should go in September. 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:30.480 I think they just need to be steady as they 0:15:30.520 --> 0:15:33.480 do this because if they rush it, it's going to 0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:36.160 actually look like they're scared about something. And I mean, 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:37.480 I don't think they should have gone this high in 0:15:37.480 --> 0:15:39.600 the first place, but now they're here, just us take 0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:43.480 it down easily. So I still think September, December, March 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:47.080 June September December sixth rade cuts one and a half years. 0:15:47.080 --> 0:15:47.920 Think that's what they should do. 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:50.880 Poulin, Central Portugal sent a strong labor market, gives them 0:15:51.080 --> 0:15:53.160 some time, the luxury of time. Do you think he 0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:54.560 has that time as well? 0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:56.640 Yeah, I think so. 0:15:56.800 --> 0:16:00.280 I mean there could be some cracks in private that 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:02.640 could be some craxy and regional banks. I mean, we 0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:04.840 are concerned about things that are not set up for 0:16:04.880 --> 0:16:07.600 normal interest rates. But remember long term interistrates are kind 0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:10.200 of at normal levels here. A normal business ought to 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:13.600 be able to operate here. So I think it's if 0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:17.920 it's shows the economy a little bit by not accelerating this, okay, 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:19.920 but I'd rather they take their. 0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:21.960 Time and I'll rush. 0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:25.440 This because once they start rushing rate coats, then it's 0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:26.240 going to scare people. 0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:27.640 See what's your impression. 0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:29.560 I know that you've been on the Maybe they shouldn't 0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:33.000 cut at all. What about given how much inflation has 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:33.560 come down. 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:37.240 Again, you've had an inflection point in the economy. We 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:39.560 went from three point three percent last year with an 0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:42.200 economy that was clearly growing too strong, an inflation was 0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:44.680 not going down. You had to shift to a slower 0:16:44.720 --> 0:16:47.880 growth economy. This year two point two two point three percent. 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:49.720 You've had some benefits of that in terms of a 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:52.920 higher unemployment rate, a lower level of inflation. Is the 0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:55.520 economy going to stay a trend or is it going 0:16:55.600 --> 0:16:56.640 beyond that? 0:16:56.640 --> 0:16:58.640 That's now the question they have to answer. 0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:01.040 They also have to worry about the risk because, as 0:17:01.160 --> 0:17:04.280 David mentioned quite clearly, the concern is if they move 0:17:04.359 --> 0:17:07.400 too quickly, the expectational set in the market could get 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:10.040 ahead of themselves. You know, you've already seen one or 0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:12.560 two of strategists on the streets saying they're going to 0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:15.639 cut rates eight times next year. So you've got this 0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:19.440 environment where if the market goes too far, they then 0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:22.320 have to think about well they then have to reverse policy. 0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:24.600 So the dots have kind of put them in a 0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:26.600 bit of a tricky box for themselves. 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:30.080 So they really can't do a hawkish cut. 0:17:30.520 --> 0:17:32.479 All they could do here is do a cut that 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:35.240 fulfills the dots and the markets are likely to go 0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:36.240