WEBVTT - Assad’s Fall, Hershey Takeover 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.240 --> 0:00:12.119 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:00:12.200 --> 0:00:14.920 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:17.919 Broyd Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:22.320 wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:25.520 Let's get back to the geopoliticis coming out of the 0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:28.080 Middle East. The Syrian president Bashar Assad is now in 0:00:28.200 --> 0:00:32.960 Moscow after rebel forces took control of Damascus over the weekend, 0:00:33.120 --> 0:00:37.159 ending nearly a century of his family's rule. His toppling 0:00:37.320 --> 0:00:39.640 is sending shockwaves throughout the Middle East and will be 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:42.640 a major blow to Russia in Iran, President Joe Biden 0:00:42.760 --> 0:00:46.400 hailed Usad's fall in an address to the nation on Sunday, 0:00:46.400 --> 0:00:46.960 and take a listen. 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:51.440 It's a moment of historic opportunity the long suffering people 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:55.280 of Syria to build a better future for the proud country. 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:59.000 It's also a moment of risk and uncertainty as we 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:01.360 all turn into question of what comes next. 0:01:02.520 --> 0:01:05.000 All right, that was President Biden with some comments Sunday 0:01:05.480 --> 0:01:08.720 regarding what's happening in Syria. Let's get some more analysis 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:13.080 on this unfolding situation. Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow at 0:01:13.080 --> 0:01:16.160 the Carnegie Dowmon for International Peace, joins us from Washington, 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:18.960 DC via zoom. Aaron, thanks so much for joining us here. 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:22.080 Do we have any idea who's in charge over. 0:01:21.959 --> 0:01:23.680 There in Sirius in Syria? 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:27.280 Well, right now, it's thanks for having me. Right now, 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:31.759 it's Ahmadshara. Who's nam Da gary Ka, also known as 0:01:32.360 --> 0:01:40.400 Abu Muhammadani al Jiulani, born in Saudi parents were originally 0:01:40.400 --> 0:01:43.720 from the Golan Heights, which is why he took the 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:49.200 name Algulani. Formerly associated with both the Islamic STATEA and 0:01:49.240 --> 0:01:52.520 Ol Kaida, He's evolved over the last five or six years, 0:01:53.720 --> 0:02:00.280 running the province of Ibleb relatively inclusively, reaching out to 0:02:00.360 --> 0:02:05.800 Kurds and to the Druis. You know, it's hard to know. 0:02:07.280 --> 0:02:10.520 Rebelling is hard, Governing is frankly a lot harder. And 0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:15.120 the track record here for overthrowing Arab authoritarians is not 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:20.920 terribly uplifting. Egypt, the Bark's gone, a more repressive authoritarian 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:27.440 military government replaced him. Tunisia ben Ali aspiring democracy and 0:02:27.600 --> 0:02:34.560 now an authoritarian government. Saddam Hussein Iraq's pretty dysfunctional. A 0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:40.480 lot of disappointments there. Yemen Abdala salav overthrown. The Huthis 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:43.880 are in charge of much of the country. Siria may 0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:49.120 have a better chance. Headlines appear to be pretty good, 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:54.760 not a lot of repression and retribution. Yet Glani's thinking 0:02:55.080 --> 0:02:58.519 as singing a pretty moderate tune invited the international press 0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:02.880 in sending signals to the Alowi community in Latakia that 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:07.359 not interested in retribution. I guess, guys, the question will 0:03:07.400 --> 0:03:11.760 be power sharing. It'll be power sharing, and it'll be 0:03:11.840 --> 0:03:15.880 whether or not the Islamic principles and strictures of these 0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:22.000 Asunni political Islamics can be reconciled a with the largely 0:03:22.080 --> 0:03:30.120 traditional secular Syrian elite, and whether or not, you know 0:03:30.160 --> 0:03:35.600 you can govern. Syria is broke, heavily indebted to the iraniance. 0:03:36.640 --> 0:03:40.000 Oil industry is muddled to two and a half billion 0:03:40.720 --> 0:03:45.600 barrels a day. It pales before the larger producers, so 0:03:46.400 --> 0:03:47.680 it's going to be a real heavy lift. 0:03:48.440 --> 0:03:54.520 Syria borders what Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and also Turkey. 0:03:55.000 --> 0:03:59.200 Does the response by one dictate the response overall by 0:03:59.200 --> 0:03:59.640 the others? 0:04:00.360 --> 0:04:04.080 Well, you know, it's been the playground for external intervention 0:04:04.280 --> 0:04:08.040 since the beginning of the Civil War. The Turks have 0:04:08.160 --> 0:04:10.520 had a huge role to play, as you pointed out, 0:04:10.600 --> 0:04:15.600 Iran Isabella, and of course Russia doesn't share contiguous borders, 0:04:15.640 --> 0:04:20.760 but was the key broker and savior redeemer of the 0:04:20.800 --> 0:04:24.080 outside regime when it was challenged in twenty fifteen. I 0:04:24.120 --> 0:04:27.480 think that the prospects for external intervention is still there, 0:04:27.520 --> 0:04:30.280 and by the way, the Israelis need to be definitely 0:04:30.839 --> 0:04:34.279 put into the mix. Prospects or external invention are there, 0:04:34.320 --> 0:04:39.920 but the real troublemakers the Iranians, I would argue the 0:04:40.000 --> 0:04:44.559 Russians Isabella. They've been set back. There's more agency now 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:50.400 for Syrians to function and focus on Syria than at 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:54.560 any time in the last decade or so. The Turks 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:58.039 are now the big boys on the proverbial block, and 0:04:58.120 --> 0:05:01.520 their motives are mixed here, but they will be the 0:05:02.400 --> 0:05:05.240 great power, the regional power to watch. 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:06.919 All right, eron, Thank you so much for joining us, 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:09.479 Aaron David Miller, he's a senior fellow at the Carnegian 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:12.880 Dowmond for International piece joining us from Washington, DC. And 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:15.800 you know, one of the questions I have ongoing will 0:05:15.839 --> 0:05:18.360 be what role with any will the US play and 0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:19.560 how this thing develops, and we. 0:05:19.480 --> 0:05:23.440 Did mention we will for the flow of refugees, which 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:26.840 from Syria has kind of shaped the political landscape. 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:29.480 Of Europe yep. And I'm just kind of seeing some 0:05:29.520 --> 0:05:31.080 of the reporting today. You know, two and a half 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:34.839 million of refugees have gone to Turkey and some three 0:05:34.839 --> 0:05:38.640 million to your point, John, So again a fluid situation 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:39.040 over there. 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:41.359 Will keep up with the reporting. 0:05:42.960 --> 0:05:46.839 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:05:46.920 --> 0:05:49.960 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, card Play and 0:05:49.960 --> 0:05:52.880 Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also 0:05:52.960 --> 0:05:56.440 listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:59.599 Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:04.599 Let's refocus on what is happening on the geopolitical front, 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:07.960 because clearly front and center for many investors, particularly what's 0:06:07.960 --> 0:06:10.880 happening in Syria over the last several days. Kirsten Fontin 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:13.920 Rose joins US. She's a president of Red six Internationals. 0:06:14.000 --> 0:06:16.560 She's also a Senior Fellow at the Atlanta Council and 0:06:16.720 --> 0:06:18.520 was a senior director for the Middle East and the 0:06:18.560 --> 0:06:23.200 last US administration. Kirsten, what's happening in the Middle East 0:06:23.279 --> 0:06:24.680 and why is that happening now? 0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:32.280 It's an interesting confluence of potentially unrelated events in the 0:06:32.360 --> 0:06:35.400 Middle East that is all leading to things like Iranian 0:06:35.480 --> 0:06:40.280 foreign policy imploding Russia's model of taking fringe groups from 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:46.440 zero to hero, imploding Israel's ability to potentially uproot the 0:06:46.640 --> 0:06:52.520 threats it faces from several fronts increasing So we're Turkey's 0:06:52.839 --> 0:06:56.839 diplomatic efforts that looked a little precarious beginning to pay off. 0:06:57.160 --> 0:06:59.120 So there are a whole lot of effects coming out 0:06:59.120 --> 0:07:03.760 of these potential unrelated events. In terms of things like 0:07:03.839 --> 0:07:08.880 Iran's implosion. They've spent years arming other militaries and militias 0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:12.040 to antagonize their adversaries, and now each of these is 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:15.120 being decapitated except for the Houthis in Yemen, and so 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:18.600 Iran is going to be forced to update its foreign policy, 0:07:19.000 --> 0:07:21.600 and we should be watching them for the choices they make. 0:07:21.720 --> 0:07:24.880 For instance, will it double down on its militia model 0:07:24.920 --> 0:07:28.080 and press its malicious in Iraq to stage work frequent attacks, 0:07:28.400 --> 0:07:30.040 or is it going to build up the hooth these 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:32.960 capabilities in Yemen to interrupt shipping in the Red Sea, 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:35.880 perhaps even beyond the Red Sea to waters farther. 0:07:35.720 --> 0:07:38.040 Northwest or south. Or is it going to. 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:41.680 Offer more support to groups like the Polisario in the 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:44.880 North Africa that it is supported before, or will it 0:07:44.880 --> 0:07:48.880 completely flip flip the text on this and rush to 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:52.160 complete its fighter jet purses from Russia out of fear 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:54.520 that Israel may choose to hit them while they're down, 0:07:54.560 --> 0:07:56.160 which is a realistic fear. 0:07:57.360 --> 0:07:58.480 Again, we could see that it might. 0:07:58.480 --> 0:08:00.720 Even be easier for Iran and the U to reach 0:08:00.760 --> 0:08:03.200 a nuclear agreement now since one of the key sticking 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:06.600 points was the activity of Iran's militias that are now crippled. 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:09.760 So what'll we be watching to see how Iran plays this. 0:08:10.000 --> 0:08:12.600 All we know so far is that it is confirmed 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:17.680 through foreign ministry statements that the supply route with which 0:08:17.720 --> 0:08:21.120 it supplies weapons to Hibaala through Syria has been severed. 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:22.480 So this is to Israel's. 0:08:22.120 --> 0:08:25.840 Advantage, and the Syrian foreign minister was part I'm sorry. 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:27.800 The Iranian foreign minister was part of a meeting in 0:08:27.840 --> 0:08:32.400 Doha last Saturday in which several Arab foreign ministers joined him, 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:35.959 and they issued a joint statement calling for a ceasefire 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:38.800 and for a political solution in Iran. So it's interesting 0:08:38.840 --> 0:08:41.240 to watch Iran now try to be part of a 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:44.600 solution instead of remaining part of the problem for all 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:46.640 the Syrians who are celebrating in the streets. 0:08:47.080 --> 0:08:51.840 Was the murderous Assad regime ever a stabilizing factor in 0:08:51.920 --> 0:08:55.200 that part of the world, And how do we gauge 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:58.000 whether or not the country has gone from the frying 0:08:58.040 --> 0:08:58.959 pan into the fire. 0:09:00.280 --> 0:09:03.040 To a certain extent, You're right, the Asad regime was 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:06.559 stabilizing only in the sense that it was predictable, and 0:09:06.720 --> 0:09:09.880 many of the countries, including Golf States and Israel, at 0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:12.320 some points, thought it was better to deal with the 0:09:12.360 --> 0:09:15.839 devil they knew than deal with an unknown devil who 0:09:15.880 --> 0:09:19.160 would potentially be an Islamist Jihada state as we may 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:22.480 be looking at now. So that fear led many of 0:09:22.520 --> 0:09:25.600 them to think, if we can keep him in place, 0:09:25.720 --> 0:09:28.040 we at least know what his redlines are, what his 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:32.880 capabilities are, and we don't see him making active moves 0:09:32.920 --> 0:09:36.000 against any of us. He is simply enabling things that 0:09:36.080 --> 0:09:40.200 threaten us, like housing Husbalah if you're Israel, or like 0:09:41.000 --> 0:09:43.520 enabling the Captigone trade if you're the Golf or. 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:47.480 Jordan so Kirson, what role do you believe the US 0:09:47.800 --> 0:09:50.880 should play, will play, if any, in Syria? 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:55.920 Well, right now we're watching the US administration really engage 0:09:55.920 --> 0:09:58.880 in some diplomacy, trying to understand who the players are 0:09:59.160 --> 0:10:02.199 and wanting to stay stay involved and up to date, 0:10:03.080 --> 0:10:06.480 really urging for ceasefires, urging for things like humanitarian assistance 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:07.560 to continue to Syria. 0:10:08.400 --> 0:10:10.719 The Donald Trump team has made it clear that they 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:12.240 don't do not think there's a. 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:16.960 US interest involved in getting engaged in this conflict right now, 0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:20.000 They want to watch it play out. They are making 0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:24.480 statements about Israel's right to definitely defend itself during all 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:27.640 of this against whatever may come, and they are making 0:10:27.640 --> 0:10:33.000 statements about how this disavows Russia's promises to the region 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:35.280 that it is a strong security partner. 0:10:35.760 --> 0:10:38.760 So you are seeing them way in on how they're 0:10:38.800 --> 0:10:39.440 reading the. 0:10:39.360 --> 0:10:42.600 Tea leaves, but not making any promises on a role 0:10:42.679 --> 0:10:43.480 the US would play. 0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:48.560 Does Israel use this now as the opportunity to address 0:10:49.040 --> 0:10:52.600 all their security concerns as it related to the north 0:10:52.640 --> 0:10:53.200 of the border. 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:56.720 That is the big question, It sure could. 0:10:56.760 --> 0:10:59.160 The question that everyone is holding their breath on is 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:01.920 what will Israel do. We are already watching them this 0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:05.160 week strike chemical weapons sites and stores of long range 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:09.439 missiles inside Syria to prevent either Iran back militias, Russia 0:11:09.559 --> 0:11:13.040 or frankly unknown factions of HTS from taking possession of those. 0:11:13.559 --> 0:11:17.160 And it's striking air defense radars, anti aircraft batteries, and 0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:20.000 military aircraft on the ground in Syria as well to 0:11:20.200 --> 0:11:23.960 ensure that the Israel can continue its operations to erase 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:26.960 weapons stockpiles that could threaten Israel in the future if 0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:29.880 it did fall into these hands. And note also that 0:11:29.960 --> 0:11:32.000 this would give them a clear path to fly over 0:11:32.080 --> 0:11:36.320 Syrian airspace en route to Iran if desired. But we 0:11:36.320 --> 0:11:39.199 could also see Israel choose a path where they work 0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:42.480 with a new government in Syria to potentially establish peace 0:11:42.520 --> 0:11:45.679 along their shared border. In fact, they may have already 0:11:45.720 --> 0:11:49.000 made an overture to President Asad in Syria just before 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:52.760 his ouster, offering to encourage the US to throttle back 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:55.840 sanctions against him in exchange for him helping to halt 0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:59.120 the flow of weapons from Iran to Hsbala through Syria. 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:02.080 And there's a hinge ready of the possibility that Israel 0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:06.079 could also now reach out to HTS or the developing 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:10.040 transitional government inside Syria and in that the indication is 0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:14.320 that HTS has deconflicted its operations near the Israeli border 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:18.280 in areas like Kunetra with the Israelis. So could this 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:22.320 paveaway for that border to quiet down and for peace there. 0:12:22.120 --> 0:12:22.920 To be cemented. 0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:26.800 Israel is logically concerned about Syria falling into the hands 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:30.480 of Islamist extremists and would not feel any peace was 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:33.080 secure as long as that ideology ruled Syria. 0:12:33.120 --> 0:12:36.720 But peace on that border in the near to midterm. 0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:39.719 Would definitely allow them to focus on things they need 0:12:39.760 --> 0:12:41.520 to finish with Hamas and Husball up. 0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:43.840 Hey, Kirsten, just about thirty seconds left. How big of 0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:46.360 a blow is the fall of this Assad regime to 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:49.120 President Putin and Russia? 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:52.960 So the blow is that the Russian model is to 0:12:53.000 --> 0:12:56.600 support unpopular dictators across the globe to gain access and 0:12:56.640 --> 0:13:00.840 concessions to valuable resources in their countries. Syria was an example, 0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:06.000 so or Niger, Mali, Burkina, Fosso, Central African Republic, and 0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:08.880 Russia has relied on its air base in Syria to 0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:11.599 fly people in and extracted gold. 0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:12.320 And other minerals out. 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:14.840 So it's been more than even just the relationship with Syria, 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:18.000 and it's access to that naval base in Tartuose that 0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:19.880 puts it so close to NATO and on the med 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:23.040 But now their operations in Africa and other places are 0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:25.840 curtailed because of their reliance on that air base in Syria. 0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:29.040 So to what extent in the long term this. 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:32.080 Will be curtailed depends on the relationship it develops and 0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:34.320 the deal it strikes for use of the airbase by 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:38.040 whatever government is stood up in Syria. We also now 0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:40.959 see Turkey saying it will not allow Russian vessels to 0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:42.439 pass through the dark kneills until. 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:43.720 Russia makes peace with Ukraine. 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:47.040 So the fall in Syria is also impacting Russia's ability 0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:48.480 to wage war in Ukraine. 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:50.560 All right, Kirsten, thank you so much for joining us. 0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:54.640 Kirsten fontin Rose, President of Red six International, again the 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:58.679 latest on a continuing developing story in Syria and in 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:03.400 the Greater Middle East. I guess the one constant is turmoil. 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:07.560 It seems uncertainty change in that part of the world, 0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:08.959 and we'll keep an eye on that. 0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:14.200 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us Live 0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:17.640 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Affo cardplaying Android otto 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:20.600 with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:23.680 get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:27.320 I'm Paul swinging your live here in our Bloomberg Interactive 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:30.000 Brokers studio. We're streaming live on YouTube as well as 0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:32.280 ahead over YouTube dot Com search Bloomberg Podcast and that's 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:33.840 where you'll find this. Let's start off with a little 0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:37.040 m and a nice busy Monday. I like that Mandalize 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:41.280 said Tamola takeover us chocolate maker Hershey, this is gonna 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:41.720 be a big deal. 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:43.160 I mean Hers, She's got a market cap. 0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:45.160 Have like forty billion, another ten billion of debt, so 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:48.560 fifty billion of market for enterprise value. Jen Bartasha, she 0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:50.920 covers as part of the world for Bloomberg Intelligence on 0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:55.200 the retail side. Hey Jen, why is Mandalize considering this 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:56.000 deal for Hershey? 0:14:57.560 --> 0:14:58.000 Hi, Paul. 0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:00.560 So really, when we look at the deal, it's about 0:15:00.800 --> 0:15:02.880 how are they going to prop up sales? How are 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:05.720 they going to continue to grow share? And they've been 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:08.760 very open that tacking on to their portfolio is one 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:11.960 of the methods that they do in order to really 0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:15.160 continue to grow as a company. But this is a 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:19.560 big deal and so it would have to be really 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:22.400 it's really considered a transformational deal at this size. 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:26.480 Can you explain to everybody this mysterious entity known as 0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:30.040 the Hershey Trust and how they can have to cooperate 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:30.240 in this? 0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:36.000 Absolutely? So, Hershey is you know, has a long history, 0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:41.640 and you know about eighty percent of their shares they 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:45.040 have a dual clust share structure, and about eighty percent 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:48.080 of voting shares are held by the Hershey Trust, which 0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:50.400 means that they have to approve any kind of deal. 0:15:51.080 --> 0:15:53.800 And this is really just because Hershey as a company 0:15:55.200 --> 0:15:59.400 is that Hershey Trust uses money from Hershey in order 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:03.160 to support charities, right, and so the approval of the 0:16:03.200 --> 0:16:07.040 trust is required. But in addition to that, Pennsylvania law 0:16:07.240 --> 0:16:10.520 also requires that the Office of the Attorney General be 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.520 provided with notice of a deal, and that office has 0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:16.280 the ability to stop a transaction if they think that 0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:19.160 the fiduciary obligations of the trust will not be met. 0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:24.120 So there are a lot of steps structurally in place 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:28.040 that could make such a takeover of Hershey really difficult. 0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:30.840 All right, what does our anti trust analyst, Jennifer Ree, 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:33.000 what does she say about this deal with the DOJ, 0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:35.280 the FTC and all the regulars DC, will they allow 0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:36.040 this deal to go through? 0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:39.880 Well, that's the other that's the next stumbling block. You know, 0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:44.560 the FTC has been really reticent with regards to big deals, 0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:47.920 especially in the last two years. When you look at 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:50.480 market share, which is really one of the things that 0:16:50.600 --> 0:16:54.760 their decision would hinge off of. Hershey has has over 0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:57.440 thirty seven percent of the US market share and Chocolate 0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:02.560 Mandal's has just under two percent, So again you're not 0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:06.600 combining two huge market shares, but together it would it 0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:09.159 would continue to be the largest market share in the 0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:12.200 United States, and that is higher than what Mars has 0:17:12.280 --> 0:17:12.600 as well. 0:17:12.960 --> 0:17:15.640 They trying to do this before Ray they did. 0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:18.960 They tried this in twenty sixteen, and back in twenty sixteen, 0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:21.920 the enterprise value of Her She was only twenty five billion. 0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:25.240 Today it's, as Paul said at the opening, you know, 0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:29.840 closer to fifty billion. So you know it's they walked 0:17:29.880 --> 0:17:32.720 away last time because they weren't able to get all 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:36.199 of the approvals in place, and the cost wasn't they 0:17:36.240 --> 0:17:38.320 weren't able to offer the premium that her She was 0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:40.960 looking for. So there are a lot of questions of 0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:44.600 whether this deal would actually go through and if an 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:46.919 offer could be made that would be tempting enough for Hershey. 0:17:47.320 --> 0:17:49.159 All right, Jen, thanks so much for joining us at 0:17:49.200 --> 0:17:52.000 Jen Bartasha. She covers all the retail stuff for Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:17:52.520 --> 0:17:55.080 Give's some thoughts on this deal, Mondo Liz taking a 0:17:55.119 --> 0:17:56.520 look at Hershe system. 0:17:56.520 --> 0:17:58.639 I'm thinking chocolate covered maccheese. 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:00.720 Sure, why not? That could be a new thing. You 0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:03.080 got a product extension, you know. 0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:05.640 I pitched the Hershey Trust a billion times a sell 0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:06.920 and it got nowhere. 0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:08.919 So I'll be intering to see who and you had 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:10.800 it in finally get Yeah, who finally gets paid. 0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:16.159 Here you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us 0:18:16.240 --> 0:18:19.359 live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple card Play 0:18:19.440 --> 0:18:22.239 and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business Act. You can 0:18:22.320 --> 0:18:25.520 also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:29.520 York station Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:32.840 More newsflow Here today, we're going to stay on top 0:18:32.880 --> 0:18:33.040 of it. 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:36.400 A marine veteran who used a chokehold on an agitated 0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:39.960 subway rider was acquitted Monday in a death that became 0:18:40.040 --> 0:18:43.919 a prison for differing views about public safety, valor, and vigilanteism. 0:18:44.400 --> 0:18:45.280 Let's break it down. 0:18:45.600 --> 0:18:47.879 We have Miles Miller joining us here, a Bloomberg's managing 0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:50.240 editor here in our studio. 0:18:50.400 --> 0:18:52.639 Miles, what's going on here? Give us a background of 0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:52.960 the story. 0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:56.440 Yeah, so this goes back to May one, twenty twenty three. 0:18:57.160 --> 0:19:01.040 Jordan Neely and Michael Jackson, impersonator is on a train 0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:04.159 and he's begging for money. And it starts out with 0:19:04.320 --> 0:19:06.600 just begging for money and then it turns into something 0:19:07.240 --> 0:19:12.240 which Daniel Penny, a former marine, found threatening. He decided 0:19:12.320 --> 0:19:15.760 to a place nearly in a chokehold to restrain him 0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:19.600 and it wound up taking his life. Now, you know, 0:19:20.119 --> 0:19:22.639 in covering, you know what happened after that. He you know, 0:19:22.720 --> 0:19:25.680 obviously there was a video of it and all of that. 0:19:25.800 --> 0:19:29.600 He didn't initially get charged. He then was charged days 0:19:29.680 --> 0:19:32.240 later after protests. And when he was charged, he was 0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:37.480 charged with initially manslaughter and criminally negligent homicide. Now manslaughter 0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:41.320 and criminally negligent homicide. So what happened on Friday is 0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:43.800 that the jury told the judge that they were hopelessly 0:19:43.840 --> 0:19:46.399 deadlocked and could not come to an agreement on that 0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:49.000 tougher charge being guilty of manslaughter. 0:19:49.240 --> 0:19:51.200 And boy did this touch of nerve. I mean, just 0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:55.840 walking in midtown yesterday, the number of free Penny stickers 0:19:55.920 --> 0:20:00.560 on lampposts elsewhere. Being in the subway confronted by someone 0:20:00.640 --> 0:20:05.159 who may be mentally unstable, the threat there as a 0:20:05.240 --> 0:20:10.480 subway rider, as an individual, it just enhanced by that atmosphere. 0:20:10.880 --> 0:20:13.840 Yeah, and the jurors ultimately decided today that his actions 0:20:13.880 --> 0:20:17.440 weren't criminal when he held Jordan Neely in that choke 0:20:17.480 --> 0:20:20.399 hold to prevent what he thought would be danger to 0:20:20.960 --> 0:20:24.280 other people in that car. The jurors came to that 0:20:24.359 --> 0:20:27.840 decision this morning. He was acquitted, and there were cheers 0:20:27.960 --> 0:20:30.240 outside of the court. There are people there in support 0:20:30.359 --> 0:20:33.360 and in protest to him. In fact, Jordan Neely's father 0:20:33.520 --> 0:20:36.119 was inside the courtroom shouted, had to be removed by 0:20:36.280 --> 0:20:37.000 court officers. 0:20:37.359 --> 0:20:40.760 How much of this, in your opinion, sort of mirrors 0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:44.639 We have to go pretty far back. But the subway 0:20:44.720 --> 0:20:47.280 vigilantic case in the form of Bernie Getz. 0:20:47.400 --> 0:20:49.800 Yeah, you know, I was in the courtroom the day 0:20:50.000 --> 0:20:53.280 that Daniel Penny was brought in the day he was 0:20:53.359 --> 0:20:56.119 let out of the Fifth Precinct, and that comparison had 0:20:56.160 --> 0:20:58.480 been made by so many legal scholars, and it would 0:20:58.480 --> 0:21:02.119 appear again today that you know that this was a 0:21:02.200 --> 0:21:06.240 determination by these jurors that in fact, this was a 0:21:06.359 --> 0:21:08.800 case of a person trying to step into help and 0:21:08.920 --> 0:21:11.200 they felt that he was just trying to help and 0:21:11.280 --> 0:21:14.480 he didn't mean to take this person's life, and drawing 0:21:14.520 --> 0:21:16.800 obviously comparison, Sabernie gots so. 0:21:16.920 --> 0:21:19.920 This case, this, according to the eightp the case amplified 0:21:19.960 --> 0:21:24.600 many American fault lines, among them race, politics, crime, urban life, 0:21:24.760 --> 0:21:28.919 mental illness, and homelessness. Mister Neely was black, mister Penny 0:21:29.280 --> 0:21:34.840 is white. Did the judge even acknowledge that type of stuffer? 0:21:34.880 --> 0:21:35.919 Is they trying to really stay here? 0:21:35.960 --> 0:21:38.040 You know, they stayed to the merits of this case. 0:21:38.400 --> 0:21:40.680 I think that, you know, obviously outside the courtroom and 0:21:40.720 --> 0:21:43.480 the windows were open in the courtroom today and throughout 0:21:43.520 --> 0:21:47.159 the trial inside the courtroom, you could hear the chance 0:21:47.240 --> 0:21:49.560 of people who were on both sides of the divide here. 0:21:50.000 --> 0:21:52.280 And in fact, they called for a mistrial today, the 0:21:52.720 --> 0:21:55.560 defense team because they said that was going to you know, 0:21:55.840 --> 0:21:57.640 that was going to make sure the jury wasn't impartial, 0:21:57.680 --> 0:21:59.600 and it they actually turned out the other way. The 0:21:59.720 --> 0:22:03.920 jury found that in this case, Daniel Penny did not 0:22:04.280 --> 0:22:07.240 mean to do this. And it's actually it's really interesting 0:22:07.280 --> 0:22:09.359 because there was a case just like this in Brooklyn. 0:22:09.560 --> 0:22:13.560 Another guy was threatening people on the train. This other 0:22:13.640 --> 0:22:18.200 guy went up to him, confronted him, and the Brooklyn 0:22:18.280 --> 0:22:20.280