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I've been doing the 9 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,560 Speaker 2: stock market thing at leasta for like forty years almost 10 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 2: still have. 11 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 3: No idea how this whole thing works. 12 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 2: I mean, look at Goldman, Sachs, Morgan, Stanley, b of A, 13 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 2: what I thought were really pretty darn good quarters in 14 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:43,919 Speaker 2: a world where we're not really sure what's going on. 15 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 3: So of course all the. 16 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 2: Stocks are trading down today, so I can't figure it out. 17 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:49,479 Speaker 2: But our next guest is an expert. 18 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 3: She knows what's going on. 19 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 2: Alison Williams, senior analy she covers all the big banks 20 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 2: and all that kind of good stuff for Bloomberg Intelligence. 21 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 2: She joins us here in our studio here. So as 22 00:00:57,880 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 2: you looked at you know again we've had two days 23 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 2: of the big banks Alison, and you've been covering these 24 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 2: guys for a very long time. You've seen it all 25 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 2: come and go. How are the big banks investment banks 26 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:08,479 Speaker 2: doing this quarter? 27 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:12,399 Speaker 4: Well, you mentioned you've been doing this forty years and 28 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 4: you've never seen a corner like you saw Goldman Sachs 29 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:19,959 Speaker 4: equity trading record YEP trading. I mean, the really stand 30 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 4: out for Goldman is they're the biggest inequity trading. They 31 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 4: are the biggest in M and A and they had 32 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 4: the biggest jump, so really solidifying that leadership. I mean 33 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 4: the equity trading up thirty six percent, prime brokerage, cash derivatives. 34 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 4: We talked about the fact that we saw record trading 35 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 4: on the equities exchanges this corner. We certainly saw that 36 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:45,399 Speaker 4: come through with the banks, M and A. Goldman talking 37 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 4: about the fact that announce volumes are up thirty percent 38 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 4: and we're running above average now, so that bodes well 39 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 4: for the future. And I think, you know, in terms 40 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 4: of the stock reactions that you refer to, I think 41 00:01:57,760 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 4: you know, so as I said, we can see that 42 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 4: they're there was a lot of strength in the exchange volumes. 43 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 4: We could see that you know, IPOs had rebounded the 44 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 4: last couple of months. Even though you know it wasn't 45 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 4: an analyst numbers, I think there was some visibility there. 46 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 5: So I think in terms of. 47 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,960 Speaker 4: What the stocks are reacting to, Morgan Stanley had a 48 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 4: really strong quarter, you know, beat everything, but just not 49 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 4: as good as Goldman, And I think people are looking 50 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:24,119 Speaker 4: at that equities trading. Morgan Stanley was in the lead 51 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 4: for a few years and now Goldman is really pulling ahead. 52 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 6: Yeah, and I see because the whole morning I was like, 53 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:31,239 Speaker 6: why is the stack where? 54 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 1: Ever? 55 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 6: Since the bell opened, it is. 56 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 4: And by the way, like wealth, wealth is the business 57 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,680 Speaker 4: that people watch for them the wealth flows. You know, 58 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 4: the numbers were good, so again, what are people worried about? 59 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 4: So it could be the market share. Morgan Stanley did 60 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 4: point out that they had a record quarter in Europe. 61 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 4: They said that they're gaining share. We'll see what happens 62 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 4: when the Europeans report and Asia. The other thing is 63 00:02:55,280 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 4: capital so buybacks better than expected at Goldman, weaker at 64 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 4: Morgan Stanley. And keep in mind we've seen these big 65 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 4: moves in the financials, A lot of that is really 66 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:08,120 Speaker 4: about the capital return story well and. 67 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 6: The consumer resilience. We look to Bank of America for 68 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 6: that So did you did you see it? 69 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 4: We did see it, and I think that is what 70 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:16,959 Speaker 4: we've what we saw in the quarter. So net interest 71 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 4: income as well as charge offs, those are kind of 72 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 4: the two bank business lines, if you will, that are 73 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 4: most revolving around lending and consumer health, and you know, 74 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 4: interest income. It was like a little bit soft in 75 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:34,359 Speaker 4: the quarter, but the outlooks are fine or better and 76 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 4: credit coming in in line to better than expected, and 77 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 4: the reserve building really telling you that, look, there is 78 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 4: some conservative conservatism baked in for some uncertainty in the 79 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 4: second half, but in general things are improved. 80 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 2: When President Trump was elected for this second term, almost immediate, 81 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 2: people are saying, by the banks they're going to be 82 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 2: the beneficiaries of reducing regulation and reduced oversight. 83 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 3: Has that happened? Do we still expect that to happen? 84 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 3: Is that still part of the story. 85 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 7: I think, you know, we're on a journey. 86 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 4: I guess if you if you'd say, isn't that the 87 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 4: current rhetoric? But I think that's why the good buybacks 88 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 4: were important. Right. So the reason one of the things 89 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 4: that people are very excited about in terms of reduced 90 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 4: regulation is holding less capital returns our equity, you're going 91 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 4: to go up mathematically, there'll be more money to return 92 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 4: to shareholders. I mean, Goldman had really that leading dividend 93 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 4: increase that we saw after the stress tests, buy backs 94 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 4: better than expected, you know, And meanwhile I saw the 95 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 4: weakness of Morgan Stanley Wells Fargo another one that was 96 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 4: another bank that investors were really optimistic about. After the 97 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 4: US election, they did get the asset cap removed, so 98 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 4: I think there's there's a long term overhang over the stock. 99 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 4: But in the current quarter, people were a little disappointed. 100 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 4: Like you know, they didn't give any guidance on buybacks, 101 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:01,720 Speaker 4: it didn't change their retre earned target, and you know, 102 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:03,840 Speaker 4: it just might be that that's that's going to come. 103 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 4: But didn't get the news yesterday. 104 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 6: Private credit, Where did banks stand with private credit? Your 105 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 6: JP Morgan say they would have best like fifty billion 106 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:14,479 Speaker 6: dollars in private credit. So what kind of examples that 107 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 6: set for the industry. 108 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 4: You know, I think, And Jamie Diamond also, I think, 109 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 4: you know, made some comments around private credit that I 110 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:24,919 Speaker 4: know we're picked up in the headlines. I think that again, 111 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 4: you know, private credit, it's it's it's been sort of 112 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 4: you know, the hot the hot item for us all 113 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 4: to talk about. But you know, maybe you know and 114 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:38,279 Speaker 4: we are seeing, you know, continued strength. I think we 115 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:43,719 Speaker 4: do expect continued fundraising, but you know, I would say 116 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 4: nothing really stands out. 117 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:46,239 Speaker 3: This quarter from any of the banks. 118 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, at least was asking before we went on here, 119 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 2: can she ask you about private credit? I said, you 120 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 2: can ask Alison about anything and still having a formed opinion. 121 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 3: That's why I'm going going down this alley. 122 00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 2: Strong results out of the US big banks this week, 123 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 2: we're going to hear from the European ones. I guess 124 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 2: next week, when is a European Union going to say, 125 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 2: if we ever want to compete in global finance, we 126 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 2: have to allow across murder merger deals. Is that even 127 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:16,920 Speaker 2: on the table? 128 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 4: I mean, I think that it does come up, and 129 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 4: I think we have heard regulators talk about it like yo, 130 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 4: yes we should do something. But the question is, you know, 131 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 4: everyone wants to be the one, you know, the victor. 132 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 4: They want to be the one you know where you 133 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 4: know they're champion, is the buyer. And so I think 134 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 4: that's you know, where the rubber meets the road. If 135 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 4: you will, it will be interesting to your point, when 136 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:46,840 Speaker 4: we see those Europeans report again Morgan Stanley wreckerd quarter 137 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,600 Speaker 4: in Europe, they said the first half, they called it 138 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,839 Speaker 4: extraordinary in Asia. Obviously, we know Asia is a lot 139 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 4: a lot of diverse parts, but the Europeans, like UBS ten, 140 00:06:57,080 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 4: have tended to be stronger there. So so if this 141 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:04,559 Speaker 4: quarter we don't see them participate and kind of follow 142 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,280 Speaker 4: that Morgan Street Stanley lead, that will give us further 143 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 4: proof that they're actually losing share in their home market, 144 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 4: and that should be a little bit more concerning. 145 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 2: I mean, you could argue that the horse is already 146 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 2: out of the barn. They've missed it. I'm just thinking 147 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 2: twenty years ago, it was so much more competitive. They 148 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 2: were so much more competitive. I remember just going up 149 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 2: against some of those big European banks, and now it's 150 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 2: almost like an afterthought. It's just amazing how that's evolved. 151 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 2: Alson Waims, thank you so much. 152 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 7: Appreciate that. 153 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 2: Alison Willims, she's a Seene analyst covers all global financials. 154 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 2: If you have any question on anything on Global Wall Street, 155 00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 2: you can. 156 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 3: Just go up to Allison on the Street and answer. 157 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 3: So have an answer for you. 158 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 159 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android 160 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 161 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 162 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 6: This is Bloomberg Intelligence. I'm Lismiths Matteo along as I'm 163 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 6: Paul Sweeney. We do have some news at a Hewlett 164 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 6: Packard enterprise. So it's creating this new strategy committee. Turning 165 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 6: to Elliott Investment Management for help with this. Here with 166 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 6: all the details and to break it all down for 167 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 6: us is Woodin, who Blueberg Intelligence, Senior technology analyst. Woodin, 168 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 6: Thank you for joining us. I want to start with, 169 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 6: of course, who is involved in Who is part of 170 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 6: this committee? 171 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 8: Yeah? 172 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:28,720 Speaker 9: Sure, thanks Lisa. So it is a handpicked board member 173 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 9: by Elliott Management. Keep in mind Elliott is an activist 174 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 9: investor that has a ten percent plus shareholding of HPE. 175 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 9: I believe they made their position early in this year 176 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 9: and who they appointed was Bob Calderoni, who has done 177 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 9: similar type of deals in terms of taking companies private 178 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 9: or more importantly operational streamlining. So any changes I think 179 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 9: Elliott is going to try through Bob to affect a 180 00:08:58,880 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 9: lot of changes at HP. 181 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 5: Mooch, just remind us what HP is today? 182 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 3: Number one? 183 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,200 Speaker 5: And number two, what do they need to fix to 184 00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 5: move this thing forward? 185 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 9: Yeah, hey, Paul, so, HPE is one of the leading 186 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 9: enterprise IT infrastructure vendors. They provide servers, storage, now a 187 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:26,680 Speaker 9: bigger networking presence with the Juniper acquisition, and actually, quite 188 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:29,319 Speaker 9: quite frankly, there's quite a bit to fix from an 189 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 9: operational standpoint. They fumbled the first quarter results by mispricing 190 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:39,839 Speaker 9: their server business and it seems to be reconciled now, 191 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:43,679 Speaker 9: but it flags some of the operational issues Number one, 192 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:46,199 Speaker 9: Number two, they have made a lot of M and 193 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 9: A that just didn't create the synergies that they had hoped. So, 194 00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:56,000 Speaker 9: you know, they did hire the former HPCFO to streamline 195 00:09:56,280 --> 00:10:01,959 Speaker 9: the financials, and with the Juniper merger UH starting underway, 196 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 9: I suspect that, you know, the new strategy board will 197 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 9: try to find more operational synergies between the two networking businesses. 198 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 6: Wiji And can you dig more into how it's under 199 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 6: pressure kind of like lagging behind Dell and growing AI 200 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 6: What kind of pressure is it facing in that in 201 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 6: that market? 202 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:21,080 Speaker 7: Yeah? 203 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:23,680 Speaker 9: So, so if we if we think about AI, right, 204 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 9: you know, HP actually owns Cray and we think about 205 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 9: high performance compute. 206 00:10:32,720 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 7: They are the market leaders there. 207 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,679 Speaker 9: They weren't a HP has not been able to transition 208 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:43,280 Speaker 9: that Cray business elegantly uh to uh the to the 209 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 9: AI side of things. So let me put this into context. 210 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 9: I think HPE should be on track for about three 211 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:54,080 Speaker 9: to four billion dollars in AI sales UH this year, 212 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 9: possibly you know four to five. Right, Dell is going 213 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:01,439 Speaker 9: to be on track for about fifteen billion dollars this year, 214 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,559 Speaker 9: and super Micro is probably on track for about twenty 215 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:08,080 Speaker 9: twenty billion this year. So you know, they've lagged on 216 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 9: the AI front even though they have some of the 217 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:13,560 Speaker 9: leading technologies on high performance compute. That's an area that 218 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 9: you know, could be fixable under the right hands. 219 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 2: One more here before we let you go, which is 220 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:24,320 Speaker 2: just you mentioned they owned craye, they owned Juniper. If 221 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 2: I'm Elliott Management, am I thinking about maybe they can 222 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:29,840 Speaker 2: be selling or spinning off some of these businesses to 223 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:30,840 Speaker 2: enhance value. 224 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 9: Well, you know, Bob Calderoni used to be on the 225 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 9: Juniper board and they actually helped with the operational streamlining 226 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 9: of Juniper. Right, So I think that you want to 227 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 9: keep Juniper. Okay, there are other aspects of the networking 228 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 9: business that you could probably probably pars away. Right, the 229 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 9: CRAG business you'd want to keep because AI is going 230 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 9: to be the growth engine and also help you transition 231 00:11:57,960 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 9: to the enterprise AI. 232 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:01,320 Speaker 5: All right, Jinho, thank you so much for joining us. 233 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 2: Wuojin host is senior techanalyst for Bloomberg Intelligence based down 234 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:07,319 Speaker 2: there are BI offices down there in Princeton, New Jersey. 235 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 236 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarclay and Android Otto 237 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 238 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 239 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 2: All right, let's get back to a story that crossing 240 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:27,080 Speaker 2: the tape over in Europe. 241 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 3: Earlier this morning, the. 242 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 5: Agio CEO, Deborah Crew steps down. 243 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 3: What's going on there? 244 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:37,920 Speaker 2: Duncan Fox Bloomberg Intelligence senior consumer staples analyst joins this year, Duncan, 245 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 2: what's happening at Diagio? 246 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 8: Well, I suppose the performance of the shares and the 247 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:48,439 Speaker 8: organic growth and sales et cetera haven't been very good 248 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:51,320 Speaker 8: for the last couple of years since she became CEO, 249 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:54,400 Speaker 8: so there was sort of rumors, a bit of pressure 250 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 8: that she should go. But it's ironic that she has 251 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 8: performed the other Spirit companies in Europe period, So I 252 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 8: think it just shows you have to show something to 253 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:08,679 Speaker 8: shareholders not to sort of have rumblings of discontent in 254 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 8: the background. 255 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 6: So how long has she been there? And then who's 256 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 6: stepping in for now? 257 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:17,360 Speaker 8: Well, at the moment, well, she's been there two years 258 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:20,720 Speaker 8: a CEO, and she was she was sort of going 259 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 8: to take over from the previous CEO, and she'd been 260 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 8: there about six to nine months before that to sort 261 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:30,560 Speaker 8: of get to know the business. Tempory CEO is going 262 00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 8: to be Nick Jingyangi through the CFO. He's only been 263 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:36,080 Speaker 8: there nine months, so that's quite clear. They now have 264 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 8: to go out and get the right CEO to take 265 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:41,960 Speaker 8: them to the next phase, which essentially is getting through 266 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:46,319 Speaker 8: tariffs and now that they've got rid of the excess 267 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 8: inventory in most of the countries around the world, actually 268 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 8: driving organic growth again. 269 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:52,959 Speaker 2: All right, looking at the stock over the last five 270 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:58,199 Speaker 2: years on a compounded annual basis, the agio down per 271 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 2: year and when you put against the foot sea up 272 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 2: almost eleven percent a year. 273 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:04,319 Speaker 3: You see the real underperformance there. 274 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 2: But if you just look at a relative to the 275 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:10,079 Speaker 2: foot Sea All Share Beverages index, that's down more than 276 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:12,720 Speaker 2: two percent, So it's not that bad relative to the industry, 277 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 2: but it's a tough industry. Duncan aredner growth drivers for 278 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 2: the Spirit's business. 279 00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 8: Long term. Yeah, So in the short term you had 280 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 8: obviously the excesses after COVID where shutdowns of cup clubs 281 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 8: and bars really hurt, so they had a nice benefit 282 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 8: when everybody restocked. Then interest rates went up inflation that 283 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 8: really killed people going out, and that's really the problems 284 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 8: they've had to get over. And subsequently you had tariff 285 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 8: in China thirty nine percent of not actually affecting Diazure, 286 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 8: but obviously President Trump, which I heard talking about just earlier. 287 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 8: I could not tell you what European taris. We know 288 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 8: the UK will be ten percent, so it's good for 289 00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 8: Scotch but I have no idea it's going to be 290 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 8: for anything else that they've got within their portfolio. So 291 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 8: you know, this is the problem. It's very difficult to 292 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 8: pin down your earnings estimates and they've obviously been falling 293 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 8: for about eighteen months two years now to really say 294 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 8: that the recovery is coming, because we just don't know 295 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 8: whether it's going to be two hundred percent, which was 296 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 8: rumored at some point after April, or it could go 297 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 8: down to ten. It really is up in the air 298 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 8: of the moment, and that's the problem for the whole 299 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 8: spirits industry. I'm afraid. 300 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 6: Yeah, now, duncan you mentioned tariffs. But also there's a 301 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 6: lot of stories we were talking about about people drinking less. 302 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 6: I mean, does that play into this as well? 303 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 5: Please, except for Paul. 304 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 8: Well, well done for we needed to drink a lot more, 305 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 8: by the way. There's a couple of issues that I mean, 306 00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 8: it's true that the gen Z's have at some point 307 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 8: we're sort of abstaining a little bit from alcohol, and 308 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 8: I think people took that a little bit too fast, 309 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 8: assuming that people were going to switch to cannabis based 310 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:02,000 Speaker 8: beverages or something else. But what is happening, is what's 311 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 8: happened for the last twenty years, is that people are 312 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 8: drinking less, but they're drinking better. So that actually plays 313 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 8: into the spirit's portfolio better than probably beer beer, to 314 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 8: be honest, because you know you'll probably have an expensive cocktail, 315 00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 8: we'll shut out with friends rather than four or five beers. 316 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:23,120 Speaker 8: So it's the way they set the strategy up. Every 317 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 8: company our follow has that as their strategy. They push 318 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 8: you towards the premium brands. But to do that you 319 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 8: need inflation to be tamed, and that is still not 320 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 8: a guarantee, just as we sit here today, as we 321 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 8: saw from US and UK inflation today US yes, and 322 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 8: in the UK today. So yeah, there's still question marks 323 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 8: over when the volume and the mixed sales growth will 324 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 8: return in the spirits industry. 325 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:50,680 Speaker 5: Well, we'll pay close attention to that. 326 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 3: I can guarantee you that. 327 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 2: Duncan Fox Senior Consumer Staples and Nanos were Bloomberg Intelligence 328 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 2: just breaking down what we're seeing in the global spirits business, 329 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 2: had some turnover senior management at the and just kind 330 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 2: of get into lowdown on that side of the consumer. 331 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 1: Right now, you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch 332 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:13,160 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarcklay 333 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:16,119 Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on 334 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:19,440 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 335 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:20,160 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 336 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:22,199 Speaker 2: It's kind of the commercial banks we've been talking to 337 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 2: Allison Williams of Bloomberg Intelligence. The past couple of days 338 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 2: on the big money center banks, the big global investment banks. 339 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 2: Now it's time to focus on the regional banks. And 340 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:34,160 Speaker 2: what I learned during a regional bank crisis a few 341 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 2: years ago is the United States has about five thousand 342 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 2: regional and community banks around the country. 343 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 3: I had no idea it was that money that many. 344 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:45,320 Speaker 2: I don't think Herman Chan follows all of them, but 345 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 2: he follows a lot of them. Herman Chan, Bloomberg Intelligence 346 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 2: senior analysy covers the US regional banks. What are you 347 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 2: expecting nath to hear from your banks this quarter? How 348 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 2: is their business right? 349 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 10: So earning season's kicked off today for a number of 350 00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:02,399 Speaker 10: region halls, and what we've seen as just a resilient economy. 351 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 10: Credit quality was really stable. A lot of the banks 352 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 10: reduce their bad debt provisioning, so provisioning for credit losses, 353 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 10: and that just shows that you're not seeing charge offs 354 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 10: really rise from here. Consumers are active in spending, and 355 00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:26,639 Speaker 10: commercial barroers are really transacting. They're preparing for terrorists, and 356 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 10: you've seen an increased in lending activity because of that. 357 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 6: Now, when we look at local banks. I look at 358 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 6: my local bank and sometimes it seems like more of 359 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 6: a billboard. 360 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:38,280 Speaker 7: I don't see it as so busy. 361 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:41,600 Speaker 6: I mean talk about the trend of how these local 362 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:45,239 Speaker 6: branches are changing. I mean some are cafes. 363 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:47,400 Speaker 7: Even right right. Yeah. 364 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 10: Banks view their branches as a marketing ploy and really 365 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:56,399 Speaker 10: to help support their customers. One thing that they're doing 366 00:18:56,480 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 10: is they're reducing the real estate footage within these branches, 367 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 10: so that's helping reduce costs. But a lot of the 368 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,160 Speaker 10: regionals that I cover are really expanding as well. They're 369 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 10: growing in new markets, particularly where the growth is right. 370 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 10: So I cover a number of Midwest banks like PNC 371 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 10: and Huntington, and they're growing in the higher growth areas 372 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:19,679 Speaker 10: in the sun belt areas. So that's something that we 373 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 10: see ongoing and just changing the mix of the demographic 374 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,200 Speaker 10: growth for that company's How. 375 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:31,399 Speaker 2: Did the regional banks compete with private credit? A lot 376 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 2: of the private credit funds that we talked to, at 377 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,400 Speaker 2: least at the beginning, they started out targeting the mid market, right, 378 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 2: middle sized market companies, not like the big multikajillion dollar reels. 379 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 2: But that's right where those regional banks like to play, right, 380 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 2: how's that dynamic competitor that dynamic work. 381 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 7: Yeah, it's been interesting. 382 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,960 Speaker 10: I would say that for a lot of the regionals, 383 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 10: there's not a lot of direct competition quite yet. I 384 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 10: would say the private credit folks are are catering to 385 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:06,639 Speaker 10: a more riskier company. So, for example, we've taken a 386 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:08,919 Speaker 10: look at this a little bit. Where the private credit 387 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 10: companies are you're talking about loan yields north of ten percent, 388 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 10: whereas the traditional middle markets bank borrower is much more stable, 389 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 10: so we're talking about six eight percent yields. So it's 390 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:28,440 Speaker 10: a different company, but we do see private credit really 391 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:30,400 Speaker 10: will continue to encroach over time. 392 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 6: So you talked about some of the risks, some of 393 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 6: the challenge that regional banks are facing. What are some 394 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 6: of the things that they can kind of look forward to. 395 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 7: Yeah, Really, what a lot of the regional. 396 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,920 Speaker 10: Banks have talked about thus far in the second quarter 397 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:47,639 Speaker 10: earnings is there's some pent up demand in lending and 398 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:53,879 Speaker 10: that's been positive. Their customers are preparing for tariffs and 399 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:58,359 Speaker 10: really increasing their line utilization, which is helping commercial and 400 00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 10: industrial lending. And they've been really saying when about the 401 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,879 Speaker 10: risk of terrace and we haven't seen really the credit 402 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:10,359 Speaker 10: quality deterioration that folks may have anticipated in April after 403 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 10: Liberation Day. 404 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:16,119 Speaker 2: Credit quality, specifically commercial real estate. There was concern that 405 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:19,080 Speaker 2: if there was going to be a problem in our 406 00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:23,639 Speaker 2: financial system from some falling particularly office real estate that 407 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,160 Speaker 2: we've seen in the middle sized regional banks. 408 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,119 Speaker 10: Have we seen that, Yeah, I would say that's an 409 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:35,399 Speaker 10: ongoing issue. We've seen losses continue, but they're manageable. 410 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 7: Office commercial real estate. 411 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 10: On average, for the companies that I cover in the 412 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,360 Speaker 10: large regional bank space, it's about two percent of their 413 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 10: total loan portfolio, So it's manageable. P ANDZ just talked 414 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 10: about this earlier, just a few moments ago on their 415 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,919 Speaker 10: earning scar and they said that charge offs could rise 416 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 10: in future quarters because of deterioration and commercial real estate, 417 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,640 Speaker 10: but they're already fully reserved for that and they prepared 418 00:21:58,680 --> 00:21:59,919 Speaker 10: for that eventuality. 419 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:00,880 Speaker 8: Now. 420 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:03,640 Speaker 6: I cover a lot of different conferences here at Bloomberg, 421 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 6: and one of them is with banks and AI. So 422 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,239 Speaker 6: how to regional banks because they're not as big as 423 00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,240 Speaker 6: the you know, the big bank. So where do they 424 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 6: stand as far as AI and how much money they 425 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:15,520 Speaker 6: put into. 426 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,879 Speaker 10: Yeah, I view AI as a tool for the regional 427 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 10: banks to continue to reduce their expenses, so it should 428 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:28,760 Speaker 10: help them in ways like reducing their the employees in 429 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 10: the cost center is one where regional banks use chat 430 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 10: bots and AI power chat bots to really help their 431 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 10: customer base with in a more efficient manner and things 432 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:44,120 Speaker 10: that are more you know, human intensive. It could help 433 00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:48,440 Speaker 10: reduce some of and streamline operations. Right now, it's more 434 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 10: feeling it out. I don't think a lot of the 435 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 10: regional banks have really jumped full board, but they are 436 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,880 Speaker 10: exploring ways to reduce costs over time. 437 00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,639 Speaker 3: All right, Hermi Chan, thank you so much. We appreciate that. 438 00:22:59,640 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 5: Hermie. 439 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:04,119 Speaker 2: Senior analysts for US regional banks for Bloomberg Intelligence, join 440 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,159 Speaker 2: us live here on our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. 441 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 442 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:15,200 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 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