1 00:00:01,280 --> 00:00:02,320 Speaker 1: Welcome back everybody. 2 00:00:02,320 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 2: It's the final episode of the season for the Betting 3 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:09,160 Speaker 2: Pros College Football preview show. I'm your host, Scott Bogman. 4 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:11,959 Speaker 2: Follow me on the Twitter at Bogman Sports. I am 5 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 2: with as always Thor Nice from follow him on the 6 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 2: Twitter at thor Ku and Mike Ferrell m. 7 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: Feral Sports to ours two l's on the Twitter. 8 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 2: Obviously, I'm very disappointed in the outcome of the semifinal games, 9 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 2: but we do have a great national championship matchup between 10 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 2: Michigan and Washington. It's going to be an exciting, fun game. 11 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:39,279 Speaker 2: Before we dive into this game in depth and in detail, 12 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:42,520 Speaker 2: throw your thoughts on the semifinals. 13 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 3: They were incredible, by far, the best semi finals that 14 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 3: we've ever had in the college football playoff, and I 15 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 3: think it was the final period on the sentence of 16 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 3: the committee got the decision right. Instead of having the 17 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 3: one traditional throwaway semi final game where one team gets 18 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 3: resounding dog walked, we had two instant classics where they 19 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:06,960 Speaker 3: each came down to the last play of the game 20 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:10,839 Speaker 3: and you were riveted throughout. So kudos to the committee 21 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 3: for making the courageous call where they had to put 22 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 3: up with a couple of weeks of getting slammed in 23 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 3: different stuff like that, they made the correct decision and 24 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:22,399 Speaker 3: we got two instant classics out of it, and maybe 25 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 3: we'll get another one here on Monday night. 26 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 1: It looks like Mike is not agreeing with you there. 27 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 4: What do you think, Mike, They didn't they didn't put 28 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:31,320 Speaker 4: up with it. I mean, it's still going on. I mean, 29 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:34,120 Speaker 4: Florida State fans are never going to stop complaining about this, 30 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 4: and rightfully so I get it. But you know there's 31 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 4: still lawsuits and all this other stuff out there in 32 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:41,680 Speaker 4: the state of Florida, and you know there's going to 33 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 4: be hopefully we're going to get some records, says to 34 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 4: see what ESPN's relationship Couge Football Playoff Committee is and 35 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 4: the TV versus talking heads and all that stuff. It's 36 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 4: never going to stop. Florida State fans will never ever 37 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 4: stop in That Bowl game that they played in was 38 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 4: an atrocity and embarrass and a lot of things need 39 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 4: to be fixed. The thing that doesn't need to be 40 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 4: fixed is, you know the playoff matchups, we had tremendous games. 41 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:10,360 Speaker 4: Obviously one goes to overtime, the other comes down to 42 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 4: the last second. You know, as Thorn mentioned, instant classics. 43 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 4: For sure, they did get it. This is what we wanted. 44 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 4: I mean, I said, Florida State got screwed. But on 45 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 4: the other hand, I didn't want to see them play Michigan. 46 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 4: I would rather see Alabama play Michigan. I would rather 47 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 4: see that matchup. And we got ourselves a very good game. 48 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 4: Nick Saban, you know, was on Pat McAfee today, which 49 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 4: is Thursday, so it's going to be released to building Friday. 50 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 4: Very interesting stuff he had to say. I mean everything 51 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 4: praiseworthy of course of Michigan and Jim Harbaugh. But that 52 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 4: last play, you know, the timeout that Michigan took when 53 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:52,639 Speaker 4: they saw the formation, the timeout that Alabama took that 54 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 4: Saban admitted he didn't have a check with me play 55 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:59,079 Speaker 4: if he didn't have a good look for Milroe. Tommy 56 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:03,360 Speaker 4: Reese under fire for that quarterback draw call. You know, 57 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,519 Speaker 4: less controversy in the Texas Washington game, and Washington's a 58 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 4: feel good story. I mean, I know you hated Bugman, 59 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 4: but everybody counts them out and they're kind of mount 60 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 4: in the championship game here and they just keep playing. 61 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 4: They keep winning their very talented Team Debor is a superstar. 62 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 4: Hardball has done a great job. Team led, you know, 63 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 4: player led team Michigan. So I think we got everything 64 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 4: we wanted to. But I will tell you this, Kirk 65 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 4: Curbs free will tweet or x post whatever. He will 66 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 4: never post anything for the rest of his entire existence 67 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 4: in life without some Florida State fan coming in there 68 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 4: and blaming him for ruining their lives. 69 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 3: I'll never get the three and a half hours back up, 70 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:46,840 Speaker 3: the sixty three to three at Georgia and Florida State. 71 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 4: And horrible embaressing. 72 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 3: Yeah in Alabama Michigan was the most watched college football 73 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 3: game I believe in the last twenty twenty five years. 74 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 3: The proof is in the pudding. So again, kudos to 75 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 3: the committee. 76 00:03:58,000 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 4: Good luck are you going with those Florida State fans? 77 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 3: With those people can shut up, they can show up. 78 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 4: They quit, they quit, the team quit. Then this kid, 79 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 4: you know, the best thing could have happened for them, honestly, 80 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 4: would be there to fuck up and play and try 81 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 4: to beat Georgia and claim that national championship, which well 82 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 4: be much more claim worthy than UCF. You beat the 83 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 4: two time reigning champs and you're undefeated, or just politely 84 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 4: decline the Orange Bowl. You know, bid, but don't do 85 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 4: the middle. Don't have half your team opt out and 86 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 4: put out this garbage team with a bunch of young 87 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:40,279 Speaker 4: kids who have never played and have them get slaughtered 88 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 4: by Ugga. Don't do the middle. And they did the middle, 89 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 4: and they're paying for it. And sixty three to three 90 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:48,720 Speaker 4: will be what they'll hear for the rest of their lives. 91 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:51,279 Speaker 4: So Kirk Kirseree won't hear it either. But you know, 92 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 4: Florida Miami fans, people who don't like Clemson fans, don't 93 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 4: like Florida State. Sixty three to three is going to 94 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 4: be a response to a whole lot of posts on social. 95 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 3: And by the way, Tate Automaker and the Wildcat offense 96 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 3: would have gotten annihilated by that Michigan team. Annihilated. Nobody 97 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 3: wanted to watch it. No one wanted to watch that 98 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 3: Florida State team Mitay Rodemaker get annihilated by Michigan again. 99 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 3: Congrats to the committee. 100 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:17,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I can't believe you guys are breaking news 101 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 2: that people on Twitter might be unreasonable. I can't believe 102 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 2: this is the first time hearing about it. I thought 103 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 2: everyone was calm, cool and collected over there. But look, 104 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:28,280 Speaker 2: before we get to the national championship breakdown, have you 105 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 2: guys checked. 106 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:30,800 Speaker 1: Out the all new Betting Pros app yet. 107 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 2: We've given at the app a fresh makeover to create 108 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 2: a better overall experience. New features include a community section 109 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 2: you can connect with top rated betters, a following feed 110 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 2: view a feed of best from everyone you followed. Get 111 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 2: instant notifications when new bets are placed. 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But I'm 127 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,600 Speaker 2: gonna separate by this when Washington has the ball and 128 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:33,720 Speaker 2: when Michigan has the ball. So let's start at the 129 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 2: quarterback position. Pennix versus the Michigan secondary. Penix was twenty 130 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:40,279 Speaker 2: three of thirty eight for four hundred thirty yards and 131 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 2: two touchdowns against Texas, and some of those footballs, like 132 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:46,480 Speaker 2: Mike you were talking about, were just placed in an 133 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:49,839 Speaker 2: absolute bucket. There was good coverage downfield. He just put 134 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 2: it exactly where it needed to be and Odoonsay was there, 135 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 2: so he was pretty unstoppable. Milroe was sixteen to twenty 136 00:06:57,760 --> 00:06:59,720 Speaker 2: three for one hundred and sixteen yards. It took six 137 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 2: actually fumbled. Michigan has the number one coverage grade on PFF, 138 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:07,679 Speaker 2: and I just think this is a very interesting matchup. 139 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 2: We do have some props on Penix, but let's talk 140 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 2: about Penix versus the secondary first. Is this a good 141 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 2: matchup for Pennix store or is this a good matchup 142 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 2: for the Michigan secondary because this is really strength on strength. 143 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 3: Here, Yeah, it sure is. This is what for Michigan. 144 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 3: This is your past defense. This is what you're hoping 145 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 3: is the equalizer of this matchup. It's not gonna be 146 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 3: the trump card. Penix is too good for that at 147 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 3: Duneesa is too good for that. But you're just hoping 148 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 3: to battle them to a draw, and Michigan's pass defense 149 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 3: is a lead enough to potentially have that happen. You're 150 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 3: not gonna, you know, wipe them off the face of 151 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 3: the earth, but if you can battle them to a 152 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 3: draw here, that's where you take control of this game. 153 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 3: In conjunction with with their rushing offense Michigan's which we'll 154 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 3: talk about here in a second. The path to that 155 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 3: is putting pressure on Penex and getting him off the 156 00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 3: spot in conjunction with your awesome secondary as well for Michigan. 157 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 3: Getting Penix off his spot is how you take that 158 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 3: passing game down. Ironically enough, the best example we saw 159 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 3: of that this year was three to nine Arizona State. 160 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 3: You go back to that game, which Washington only won 161 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 3: fifteen to seven. So Arizona State in that game they 162 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 3: logged fourteen pressures on forty three dropbacks of Pennix. In 163 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 3: that game, Michael Penix was held to a season low 164 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:38,839 Speaker 3: two point four seconds average time to throw on his dropbacks. 165 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 3: Pennix did manage to avoid being sacked. You guys know 166 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 3: he's only been sacked what is it ten times or 167 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 3: eleven times? 168 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 1: Eleven times? Yeah, yeah, like on. 169 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:51,199 Speaker 3: His ludicrous amount of drop the guy doesn't get sacked. 170 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 3: He can get the ball out from any arm angle 171 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 3: in this you know, snap of a finger or whatever. 172 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 3: He has the quickest release you'll ever see. And he 173 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 3: he has that mandate, do not get sacked, do not 174 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 3: put the offense behind the sticks or whatever. But despite that, 175 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 3: he had his lowest PFF game grade by far forty 176 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:14,319 Speaker 3: eight flat in that game, and by far as lowest 177 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 3: NFL passer rating sixty three point one. Michael Pennix. The 178 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:20,959 Speaker 3: one thing that you can say to sort of nitpick 179 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 3: his game doesn't throw on the run and under pressure, 180 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 3: his game starts to go down a bit. PFF passing 181 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 3: grade seventy point three under pressure only completes forty five 182 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 3: point one percent of his passes five to three td 183 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 3: I and T rate went under pressure in clean pockets 184 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 3: ninety three point one PFF grade obviously elite complete seventy 185 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 3: three point six percent of his passes thirty to six 186 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 3: TDI and T rate. Michigan must get pressure on Michael Pennix. 187 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 3: Last game against Alabama, Michigan turned up the heat on 188 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:59,439 Speaker 3: Jaln Milrow five sacks. He was under duress the entire game, 189 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 3: and Michigan was able to do that without really sending 190 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 3: extra guys. They sort of figured out Alabama's that sort 191 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 3: of the way that they were configuring their pass protection. 192 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 3: They were knifing through those gaps left and right and 193 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 3: getting the free rushers on Milrow. We'll see if they're 194 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 3: able to do that against Washington's front. If they are, 195 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 3: Washington could be in trouble with regards to that. Washington, 196 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 3: you can think of their offense similar ish to the 197 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:33,199 Speaker 3: twenty nineteen LSU Tigers in that you guys recall that 198 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 3: team with you know, Joe Burrow and Chase and Jefferson, 199 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 3: all those different guys. Remember how they love to send 200 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:42,559 Speaker 3: e layer out and different stuff like that. They love 201 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 3: to run the empty they that LSU team did that 202 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 3: more than this Washington team. But Washington is extremely similar 203 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:53,319 Speaker 3: in that they will have four guys running routes and 204 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 3: five guys running routes on an extremely high propensity of 205 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 3: their passing concepts, so they leave Penix back there in 206 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 3: islands to throw because Penix loves to have the wide 207 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 3: open you know, panorama vision of the field and everything 208 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 3: like that. But the one scary thing is then you 209 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 3: leave him susceptible to the thing of when he's under 210 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 3: duress his game goes down. Can the offensive line hold up. 211 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 3: Can he see the look he likes quick enough to 212 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 3: get it out when he still has that sturdy platform 213 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 3: under him, right, Because if you can get him off 214 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 3: the spot, that's where the accuracy goes down. That's when 215 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 3: he doesn't make as good of decisions, et cetera, et cetera. 216 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 3: That's where the rubber is going to meet the road. 217 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,479 Speaker 3: As far as that goes. Michigan obviously has the good secondary. 218 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 3: So if we can get him off the spot, that's 219 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:43,679 Speaker 3: where the advantage goes from Michigan Washington. It goes without saying, 220 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:46,719 Speaker 3: does not the running game, when they put the ball 221 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 3: on the ground, it's a huge advantage towards Michigan. Michigan 222 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 3: has an elite, elite, elite run defense. I think they're 223 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 3: number three in terms of success rate their defense on 224 00:11:55,520 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 3: the ground, I think it's number four. Explosion Washington's run offense, 225 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 3: it's it was above average during the fall, especially towards 226 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 3: the latter part of it when Dylan Johnson started to 227 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,439 Speaker 3: take off. But Dylan Johnson the last three games had 228 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 3: the foot injury he was playing through. In the last 229 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:12,680 Speaker 3: game in the semi finals, he had the leg injury 230 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 3: at the very end of the game. They had to 231 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 3: take him off the field. Bagman. You'll recall that allowed 232 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 3: Texas to because of that that weird rule toss the clock. Yeah, 233 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:24,439 Speaker 3: it gave them the possession there at the end. Yeah, 234 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:26,719 Speaker 3: to allow them to drive down and Texas had a 235 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 3: shot there at the end to potentially win. Now, Washington 236 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 3: is saying, and they came out right after the game 237 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:36,240 Speaker 3: the x rays were taken on Dylan Johnson. They said 238 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 3: that the x rays were negative. Dylan Johnson is going 239 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 3: to play, but one million percent. Dylan Johnson is not 240 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 3: even going to be close to one hundred percent in 241 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 3: this game. He now he has both the leg injury 242 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 3: and the foot injury. Extremely tough kid, but not even 243 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 3: going to be close to one hundred percent. Washington does 244 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 3: not have great running back depth. They have the young 245 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 3: speedster that t Bo Rodgers kid behind him. It's not great. 246 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:01,719 Speaker 3: They have two running backs that were inactive in the 247 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 3: last game because of injuries. And then outside of that, 248 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:08,679 Speaker 3: you know they have the Arizona State transfer Nada, who's 249 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 3: been mostly a kick returner. It gets kind of hairy. 250 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 3: Outside of that, it's just not a great matchup. Michigan's 251 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 3: front is going to be pushing them around in terms 252 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 3: of that, so they have to be able to pass. 253 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:23,080 Speaker 3: I don't know about that. I just I really respect 254 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 3: Michigan's pass defense. I don't love the matchup. You love Penix, 255 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 3: you love a Dunes, but but Michigan's pass defense is 256 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 3: elite in the country and it has been three years 257 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:39,320 Speaker 3: running now. Going to the prop market, Michael Pennix, when 258 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 3: the Price Picks numbers came out, I immediately banged his under. 259 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 3: I know it's scary, but it's scarier to doubt the 260 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:50,319 Speaker 3: Michigan pass defense historically here going back the last couple years, 261 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 3: Penix's number came out at three hundred point five on 262 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 3: Price Picks. It was way too high Michigan, so I 263 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 3: went under on that. Michigan has allowed an average of 264 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:01,920 Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty flat passing yards per game this 265 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 3: season over fourteen games. They've allowed a max in a 266 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 3: game of two hundred and seventy one. I believe it 267 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 3: was the Ohio State game, so I went under on Pennix. 268 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 3: Then the one I like even more than that. I 269 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:17,679 Speaker 3: think this is a ludicrous line and I'm surprised that 270 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 3: it hasn't been taken off of Price Picks. Price Picks 271 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 3: has a line of Michael Pennick's two point five touchdowns. 272 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 3: This is why that line is crazy, So I'm under 273 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 3: under under on that. Michigan this season has allowed seven 274 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 3: passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this year in fourteen games, 275 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 3: So the Michigan average is half a touchdown allowed two 276 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 3: opposing quarterbacks this year. They've only allowed so there was 277 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 3: one time this year where an opposing quarterback got to two. 278 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 3: That's the only time that an opposing team has even 279 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 3: been close to that number. And if you look at 280 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 3: total touchdowns, total touchdowns that Michigan has allowed to opposing 281 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 3: offenses this year, all opposing to you know teams, in 282 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 3: fourteen games, Michigan has allowed sixteen touchdowns this year two 283 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 3: opposing offenses, and they're giving Michael Pennix two and a half. 284 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 2: What are the K line is one and a half 285 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 2: by the way, and that's minus one fifteen. 286 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 1: That's like normal juice. Yeah, and some other books are. 287 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, at most books, and you have to pay a 288 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 3: bit of an accelerated you know, the juice whatever. At 289 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 3: prize picks, we have the two and a half, so 290 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 3: you can still take advantage of that. Roma Dunza, I 291 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 3: took the under at ninety nine and a half. So again, 292 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 3: these are the lines I'm citing. They're all prize picks. 293 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 1: That one is eighty nine and a half on DK. 294 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 3: Oh interesting like right now live Yeah, So and these 295 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 3: ones I got a couple of days ago on prize Picks. 296 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 3: I'm not sure where they are right now. Duneesay ninety 297 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 3: nine and a half under on that. Then I took 298 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 3: the Donza under a half of a receiving touchdown. Then 299 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 3: I took Jalen Pulk less than fifty five and a 300 00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 3: half receiving yards. In the last game against Texas, where 301 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 3: you'll recall Washington's passing offense was going ballistic, Polk had 302 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 3: the least targets of a Donesay, McMillan and Jack Westover. 303 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 3: You toss all those guys in this game, the passing 304 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 3: environment is gonna be way down for Washington. I think 305 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 3: that number is too high. And the last one on 306 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 3: the Washington side, I didn't see any running props from them, 307 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 3: So that's why you know these. 308 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 1: There weren't any today either, Yeah. 309 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 3: Which makes sense because Dylan Johnson. You know, even though 310 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 3: Washington saying he's gonna play, it's sort of hard to 311 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 3: trust that because again, he had to get carried off 312 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 3: the field in the last game. It's just the one 313 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 3: week turnaround, and then if he does play, you don't 314 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 3: know what percentage he's gonna be. So it's sort of 315 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 3: hard to drop a number on him. But the last 316 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 3: one I did Jack Westover over two and a half 317 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 3: receptions for him. The last game, Westover was targeted eight 318 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 3: times eight times against Texas. He only needs to get 319 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 3: to three receptions to go over on this one. Washington's 320 00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 3: gonna have to put the ball in the air. They 321 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 3: just are this game, and Michigan has the elite outside corners, 322 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 3: they have the one elite slot. I could see west 323 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 3: Over getting free, you know, multiple different times. Here He's 324 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,280 Speaker 3: going to draw the lesser of the coverage. Guys on 325 00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 3: the Michigan side, they are way less afraid of him. 326 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 3: Than the three NFL receivers on the Wisconsin side. And 327 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 3: we already saw the manifestations of this in the last 328 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 3: prime time game that Washington just played, of an opponent 329 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 3: that was way more afraid of the three wide receivers. Well, 330 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 3: when that happens and the coverage tendencies are getting pushed 331 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:38,359 Speaker 3: over to those guys, what happens with Westover. Pennix is 332 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:40,440 Speaker 3: going to throw to the open guy. So in the 333 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 3: last game, west Over targeted eight times, ended up getting 334 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 3: six receptions. The reception number is still low for him 335 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 3: because they're basing that on the aggregate number. You go 336 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,320 Speaker 3: back five games, you go back eight games, whatever, so 337 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 3: it's low, but I think it makes sense to go 338 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 3: over this number at two and a half, Mike. 339 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,120 Speaker 2: You know, just looking at the offensive line here, they 340 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 2: Michigan turned eleven pressures into eight sacks. You know against Alabama, 341 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 2: Washington UH had eighteen pressures on Pennix, only one QB hit, 342 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 2: no sacks allowed. So you know, Troy Fonado is a 343 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:22,479 Speaker 2: top offensive tackle prospect in the upcoming draft. Your thoughts 344 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:26,880 Speaker 2: on when Washington has the ball versus Michigan's defense, can 345 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:29,200 Speaker 2: they win enough to stay competitive? 346 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:29,800 Speaker 1: In this game. 347 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:33,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, that speaks to his quick release, you know, I mean, 348 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 4: obviously one quarterback hit on eight team pressures, there's just 349 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:42,240 Speaker 4: no time to get to them, at least for Texas. 350 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,800 Speaker 4: But you know, we've seen in the past. I mean 351 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:49,160 Speaker 4: they've they've played close games against everybody. Since that mid 352 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:51,879 Speaker 4: season game against Oregon, it's been even before that was 353 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:55,680 Speaker 4: at Arizona winning the post Ones. Yeah, Arizona State, Stanford. 354 00:18:56,119 --> 00:19:00,400 Speaker 4: They know how to win close games. And that's because 355 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:02,920 Speaker 4: the game plan is very smart and as Thor said, 356 00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:06,959 Speaker 4: you know, don't take any sacks, get the ball out, 357 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,720 Speaker 4: and he's very good at doing that under duress. There 358 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,919 Speaker 4: were a couple of times where you know, another half second, 359 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 4: Texas was going to be all over him, but anticipation, 360 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 4: the timing with his receivers, they're all healthy now. Thora 361 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 4: is very confident. Obviously in the Michigan secondary he should be. 362 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:26,879 Speaker 4: I'll just play Devil's advocate a little bit here, because 363 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 4: they haven't played one good quarterback, not one. There's not one. 364 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 4: I dare you to find the one. They played East 365 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 4: Carolina this year, they played UNLV this year, they played 366 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 4: Bowling Green, they played Ruckers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan State, Perdue, 367 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 4: Penn State. 368 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 2: Not even just an average quarterback, like a decent quarterback. 369 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 4: No good. L Aller was supposed to be great. He stinks. 370 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 4: Kyle McCord was supposed to be the next you know, 371 00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 4: Jigsaw puzzles hit him right in that a high state offense. 372 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 4: But now he's at Syracuse, you know, after Pitt, Maryland, 373 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:07,840 Speaker 4: you know Iowa, you know, so these numbers are so skewed. Now, 374 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 4: I will agree with one point and it wasn't even made. 375 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 4: But Penix has to be great for Washington to be 376 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 4: successful on offense here. And he was great against Texas, 377 00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 4: and he's been great at times and he struggled at 378 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 4: other times, and there was some talk maybe it's a 379 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 4: rib injury. You know, his throwing motion was a little 380 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 4: bit wonky at times when when he did struggle, didn't 381 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,200 Speaker 4: put up big numbers. That Arizona State game, that couldn't 382 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,879 Speaker 4: get the running game going at all. You know, they 383 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,160 Speaker 4: were out, one of their wide receivers was missing. There's 384 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:38,639 Speaker 4: there's all these elements, and again they might not be 385 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 4: able to get the run game going here with the 386 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 4: injury situation. So that's going to be a problem. But 387 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 4: you know, the discrepancy. So my question in my head 388 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:52,879 Speaker 4: is is penis that good compared to how horrible all 389 00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:56,920 Speaker 4: these quarterbacks are? You know, and Milroe is in there 390 00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:57,400 Speaker 4: as well. 391 00:20:57,600 --> 00:20:59,199 Speaker 1: It might have been the best that they played. 392 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:01,960 Speaker 4: He he is. I mean, you know, when you look 393 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:06,920 Speaker 4: at it, what are you gonna go in? Unlv or Milroe? 394 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 4: I mean, because all these others stink and Milroe the 395 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 4: one thing that he couldn't do and can't do as 396 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 4: a quarterback. Yet maybe in an offseason the Hey'll be 397 00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 4: able to you know, he's a home run guy. He's 398 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 4: Al Davis is somewhere in his you know, you know, 399 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 4: million dollar thrown up in heaven or sitting on his 400 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 4: hot seat in hell, wherever he is. This is his 401 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 4: quarterback because that guy drops back and he keeps it 402 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 4: down bays or he runs number eight pick in that NFL. 403 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:48,679 Speaker 4: Guess what Washington does really really well with Pennis intermediate passing, 404 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:52,879 Speaker 4: game timing routes, accuracy. You know, so this is really 405 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 4: difficult to try to figure out. Is Washington gonna come 406 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,440 Speaker 4: out here and get just blitzed by this amazing defense 407 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,679 Speaker 4: and just get croaked and shut down, or is this 408 00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:07,120 Speaker 4: amazing defense, gonna get absolutely lit up by the first 409 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 4: quarterback with a pulse that they've seen. So for me, 410 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 4: the one I agree on is, you know, west Over 411 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,199 Speaker 4: for sure, I think that's a good one. Now Thor 412 00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:18,359 Speaker 4: has got the receptions, I'm going with the receiving yards 413 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 4: over twenty four and a half. He got fifty nine, 414 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 4: and against Texas he's gonna get the targets to get 415 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:24,240 Speaker 4: over twenty four and a half. He's gonna get the 416 00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:26,359 Speaker 4: targets to get over the receiving number as well. That 417 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 4: one's kind of a no brainer. 418 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:29,639 Speaker 1: Probably gonna leave the middle of the field open on 419 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 1: some blitzes too. 420 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,640 Speaker 4: So yeah, So I think that one's now you get 421 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 4: into the tough part. Is kinda's gonna throw two ninety 422 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,480 Speaker 4: one and a half on DraftKings. Thor got headed over 423 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 4: three hundred early and now it's down a little bit more. 424 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 4: Is he gonna get over that? I don't know. Is 425 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,359 Speaker 4: a Dunzig gonna get over eighty nine and a half, 426 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,240 Speaker 4: I don't know. McMillan sixty one and a half, Pulpe 427 00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 4: fifty one and a half, I don't know. So if 428 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 4: I'm leaning here, I'm gonna say you know Thorn got 429 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 4: that two and a half touchdown number. I would go 430 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 4: under that if you get that on Prize Picks, But 431 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 4: one and a half is the number on DraftKings and 432 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:10,000 Speaker 4: most of the other books. I would lean over simply 433 00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,719 Speaker 4: because I don't care about those numbers. For Michigan. Those 434 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 4: are all against garbage quarterbacks. Even if Washington falls down 435 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:20,399 Speaker 4: fourteen points, ten points, they're gonna air it out and 436 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 4: eventually they're gonna break through because they have too many 437 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,280 Speaker 4: talented receivers. He's such a great quarterback, and I think 438 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 4: he's gonna throw for two touchdowns, So I go over 439 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,040 Speaker 4: on that. I would lean towards the under in his 440 00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:32,879 Speaker 4: passing yards at two ninety one and a half, but 441 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,600 Speaker 4: Kyle McCord put up to seventy and he thinks that's 442 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:40,800 Speaker 4: a tough one interceptions over zero point five, I would 443 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:43,439 Speaker 4: go over he's gonna throw one. This Michigan secretary is 444 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,880 Speaker 4: very very good. I would lean a dunzee over eighty 445 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:48,720 Speaker 4: nine and a half because I think he's the guy 446 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:50,879 Speaker 4: that Will Johnson's gonna be on him. I get it, 447 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 4: Will Johnson's a very very good corner. But they're going 448 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 4: to target a Dunzee probably ten times. They only target 449 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,280 Speaker 4: them seven times against Texas. They balanced it, they spread 450 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,679 Speaker 4: the field. He's going to be the guy that that 451 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 4: Penix is going to look for. 452 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 1: Impact seven targets. I know that. 453 00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 4: Well, yeah, one hundred and twenty five yards on that 454 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,280 Speaker 4: and so you know, even if he doesn't get ten targets, 455 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:15,880 Speaker 4: he could still go over that eighty nine and a half. 456 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:17,399 Speaker 4: But I think he's going to get ten targets in 457 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 4: this game. McMillan, I would lean under Polk. I would 458 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,720 Speaker 4: lean under too. So to be honest with you, I 459 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 4: don't know what's going to happen here offense versus defense. 460 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 4: Because he had a great defense. It's played nobody and 461 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,399 Speaker 4: he got a great offense. It's played no defense that 462 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 4: looks even close to what we're seeing here we thought 463 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:40,600 Speaker 4: Texas might be. You know, but this issues in the secondary. 464 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 4: If he all season longest that great, you know, we don't. 465 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 1: Have to even blame the secondary. 466 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 2: When Penix was playing the ball in the perfect place, 467 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:49,360 Speaker 2: it was no pressure. 468 00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,879 Speaker 4: No pressure, great coverage, there was certainly great coverage, but 469 00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,399 Speaker 4: all season long, if you had to pick, you know 470 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,399 Speaker 4: one thing that that Texas didn't do great was you know, 471 00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 4: keep the passing yards down. Yeah, and Michigan is known 472 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,439 Speaker 4: for keeping the passing yards down, but again against a 473 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,520 Speaker 4: bunch of garbage quarterbacks. So for me, I don't know 474 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,199 Speaker 4: where this offense versus defense matchup is going to go. 475 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:13,000 Speaker 4: So my best bets are you know, Westover and then 476 00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:19,880 Speaker 4: the ones I mentioned. But my hunch is Michigan's going 477 00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 4: to dominate this football game. That's my hunch. Right Well, 478 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:26,879 Speaker 4: we don't have enough data to say that that's going 479 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,119 Speaker 4: to happen. And we've said this all season long about 480 00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:30,880 Speaker 4: Washington that they're going to lose and they just never 481 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:31,520 Speaker 4: do well. 482 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:33,800 Speaker 2: Let's before we move to when Michigan has a ball, 483 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:35,240 Speaker 2: let me tell you guys. If you want a chance 484 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:37,679 Speaker 2: to win a premium one year subscription to Betting Pros 485 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 2: your place to start betting smarter, not harder, you need 486 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,960 Speaker 2: to subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now, 487 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 2: comment below on this video and that's it. We will 488 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,320 Speaker 2: be announcing winner right here on the channel. So make 489 00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:50,920 Speaker 2: sure to turn on those notifications so you can be 490 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,879 Speaker 2: alerted when new episodes are up and clean your prize. 491 00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,360 Speaker 4: When Michigan this is easier, bagman, This should. 492 00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 2: Be much easier, right, And I'm not gonna start with McCarthy. 493 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 2: We're gonna start with Blake Corn because Texas ran for 494 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:08,600 Speaker 2: one hundred and eighty yards on Washington. The Huskies were 495 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:12,280 Speaker 2: seventy second in run D grade on PFF this season. 496 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,200 Speaker 2: This is how Michigan wins on offense. They run the ball, 497 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 2: they control the clock. McCarthy versus the secondary is going 498 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 2: to be interesting. Yours was only twenty four or forty three, 499 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,000 Speaker 2: but he did have three hundred and eighteen yards. He 500 00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 2: also ran for fifty four yards on eight carries. McCarthy 501 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,320 Speaker 2: much better with his legs and yours, so they could 502 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,720 Speaker 2: be in trouble trying to contain McCarthy as well. Washington 503 00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:40,119 Speaker 2: was good in coverage. They ranked fifteenth overall in PFF 504 00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:44,720 Speaker 2: coverage Grade. Michigan might have a couple of week links 505 00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,520 Speaker 2: on the line. Henderson the left tackle on Barnhart the 506 00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 2: right guard have been the weak links to that Michigan 507 00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:53,199 Speaker 2: offensive line. But brayln Trice is really the only threat 508 00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 2: to put pressure on the quarterback. Now he got to 509 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:59,000 Speaker 2: Quinn youwers. He was great in the Sugar Bowl. But 510 00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 2: it's I think it's a bigger challenge here against Michigan. 511 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,080 Speaker 2: And also Michigan shouldn't be passing the ball as much 512 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:08,159 Speaker 2: as Sex as did playing from behind. In terms of 513 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,879 Speaker 2: the wide receivers versus the defensive backs, Roman Wilson had 514 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:11,919 Speaker 2: twelve touchdowns this year. 515 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:13,120 Speaker 1: No one else had more than four. 516 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,639 Speaker 2: Cornelius Johnson had one fewer catch so he's used as 517 00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:19,680 Speaker 2: much as Roman Wilson is, but only one touchdown this year. 518 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:23,520 Speaker 2: And then the other guys Colston Lovelin, A J. Barnard, 519 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,640 Speaker 2: Donovan Edwards, they could have an impact here. So I'm 520 00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:31,160 Speaker 2: interested to hear your takes on those guys in terms 521 00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 2: of the prop betstor So Thor will start with you. 522 00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:36,600 Speaker 2: When Michigan has the ball, what are we looking for? 523 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:38,200 Speaker 4: Yeah? 524 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,679 Speaker 3: First off, I forgot to say one of my stats 525 00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 3: in the last ones, I got to clean that one up. First. 526 00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:47,440 Speaker 3: Michigan's past defense. They run this NFL like scheme where 527 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 3: they have the heavy zone coverage, so they run man 528 00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:53,600 Speaker 3: only twenty seven point four percent of the snapsats one 529 00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 3: hundred and tenth in the nation. Michael Pennix, why this 530 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:01,080 Speaker 3: is relevant. He's far more explosive against me than zone 531 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:04,199 Speaker 3: He averages eleven point nine adjusted air yards per attempt 532 00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:07,320 Speaker 3: against man compared to nine point one against zone. So 533 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:09,359 Speaker 3: I just wanted to clean that up really quick. I 534 00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 3: had to drop that one before we move over to 535 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:16,440 Speaker 3: this one. This one in Michigan's offense against Washington's defense. 536 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:21,080 Speaker 3: It's specifically the run offense against Michigan, or of Michigan 537 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,760 Speaker 3: against Washington's run defense. It is one of the great 538 00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,200 Speaker 3: mismatches you will ever see in a national title game. 539 00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,199 Speaker 3: In fact, it might be the biggest. It probably is 540 00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:32,960 Speaker 3: the biggest. Michigan has an utterly elite running offense. Washington 541 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 3: had one of the worst run defenses in the entire 542 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:40,560 Speaker 3: FBS this year. So the Huskies their run defense one 543 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,280 Speaker 3: hundred and twenty first in success rate this year. There's 544 00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,040 Speaker 3: only one hundred and thirty three teams in the friggin FBS. 545 00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:48,680 Speaker 3: They were one hundred and twenty six and stuff rate. 546 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 3: Their front gets pushed around all the time. Michigan Washington 547 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,960 Speaker 3: has a four to five defense, so I mean they 548 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,200 Speaker 3: have five defensive backs on the field at all times 549 00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:00,920 Speaker 3: as well, and again just getting push back, push back, 550 00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,280 Speaker 3: push back. They have this bend that don't break defense. 551 00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,040 Speaker 3: They're trying to take away explosive plays. They'll let you 552 00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,320 Speaker 3: get the short stuff and the ground game for sure, 553 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:12,560 Speaker 3: all day long. Michigan's greatest strength it's their power run game. 554 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,840 Speaker 3: So they're just built to take advantage of teams like this. 555 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,560 Speaker 3: Michigan's run game thirty six to six success rate but 556 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:23,080 Speaker 3: fifth and stuff rate, so they'll steal your lunch money 557 00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:27,480 Speaker 3: all day long, even facing decent run defenses. Oh boy, 558 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 3: is this a mismatch you know again, and especially against 559 00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 3: a team like this with the four to two five defense. 560 00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:40,360 Speaker 3: In addition, Washington their defense one hundred and thirty second 561 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:44,400 Speaker 3: in the nation, second to last in tackles success rate. 562 00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,720 Speaker 3: You want to talk about a bad matchup against Blake Korham. 563 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,480 Speaker 3: Michigan's offensive prerogative anyway is to keep it on the 564 00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,480 Speaker 3: ground and just grind you into dust. They have this 565 00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:59,040 Speaker 3: you know, power run concept where you know, you guys 566 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,200 Speaker 3: know Michigan. They shift around the formation, it's the pre 567 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,719 Speaker 3: snap motion, and then they have they'll do the numbers 568 00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:09,080 Speaker 3: advantages on one side. I sort of think of them 569 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,000 Speaker 3: of like you know, the team like the air raid 570 00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,760 Speaker 3: teams where they have like the exotic formations and different 571 00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 3: stuff like that. And they do all the sort of 572 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 3: cool stuff like that, and we usually give credit to 573 00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 3: teams like that with the cool formations. When they're throwing 574 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:24,200 Speaker 3: the ball that's Michigan on the ground. They like it 575 00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:28,120 Speaker 3: for run game off of Dontrios. Michigan's your team. They 576 00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,320 Speaker 3: bring all these different guys onto the field and then 577 00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:32,680 Speaker 3: they're doing all these cool things with the pre snap 578 00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,040 Speaker 3: motion and and the numbers on one side of the 579 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,680 Speaker 3: field or the other. And the reason they're doing it 580 00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,520 Speaker 3: is so they can get angles on you in the front. 581 00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:43,400 Speaker 3: It's like a pool shark. They're just trying to get 582 00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,040 Speaker 3: angles on the guys on the front, so they literally 583 00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:48,400 Speaker 3: the guys in the they have no chance. And you 584 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,640 Speaker 3: saw it with Alabama where all the Michigan guys they 585 00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:53,520 Speaker 3: just had angles on them and all of a sudden, 586 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,560 Speaker 3: Korum's just running into into freedom, you know. I mean, 587 00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 3: it was just the way that it was going down. 588 00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:02,080 Speaker 3: This Washington team, even when it's straight up you know, 589 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:03,840 Speaker 3: against it. You know, a team that doesn't run the 590 00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,840 Speaker 3: ball nearly as well, they're happless to stop it. Blake 591 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 3: Korum is going to run wild in this game. It 592 00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:12,000 Speaker 3: just is what it has I mean, it's just going 593 00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,840 Speaker 3: to happen. And even in instances where Michigan gets into 594 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 3: third and lown, it's not going to happen often, but 595 00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,320 Speaker 3: when they do in the very rare instances when they do, 596 00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 3: JJ McCarthy is one of the great killers in the 597 00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:28,360 Speaker 3: NCAA that we currently have on third and long. Uh 598 00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:32,400 Speaker 3: pulled this stat from our boy RG three h JJ 599 00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 3: McCarthy thirty three of forty four seventy five percent for 600 00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,640 Speaker 3: five hundred and twenty six yards with twenty six first 601 00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:43,520 Speaker 3: downs or touchdowns when it's third and seven or longer. 602 00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:47,120 Speaker 3: I mean, how is Washington going to get Michigan off 603 00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:48,000 Speaker 3: the field in this game? 604 00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:48,600 Speaker 4: Ever? 605 00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:52,640 Speaker 3: I don't know how it happens. The way that Michigan 606 00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:55,600 Speaker 3: plays offensive football, it drives right into the way where 607 00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:59,440 Speaker 3: Washington's just like, come on down the field. Washington constructed 608 00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:03,120 Speaker 3: this four to two five defense to confront the spread 609 00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,760 Speaker 3: offenses that throw the ball a bunch in the Pac 610 00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:09,520 Speaker 3: twelve right like your your USC's for instance, right like 611 00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,080 Speaker 3: that was the team where when they're putting this thing together, 612 00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:15,560 Speaker 3: it's like, we're gonna try to beat that team. Michigan's 613 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:20,320 Speaker 3: the opposite of that. This is a horrific matchup for Washington, 614 00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:23,000 Speaker 3: and it is a lick your chops matchup for Blake 615 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,720 Speaker 3: Korum in the prop market. Like I said, it just 616 00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:30,680 Speaker 3: is what it is. My props on this one. JJ 617 00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 3: McCarthy over fifteen and a half rushing yards, I feel 618 00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:36,640 Speaker 3: like is a good one. They're gonna get him on 619 00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,040 Speaker 3: some of the same concepts where they had with Alabama, 620 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,000 Speaker 3: getting him out of the pocket, different stuff like that. 621 00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:43,960 Speaker 3: Not gonna be a ton But Washington are not a 622 00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,280 Speaker 3: great pass rush either if they're not gonna put McCarthy 623 00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:47,640 Speaker 3: in bad spot. So I don't think you're gonna have 624 00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:50,360 Speaker 3: to put up with mini sack yardage getting taken away 625 00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:52,720 Speaker 3: and on a few scrambles he gonna get over that. 626 00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,200 Speaker 3: I feel like the one I love way more Blake 627 00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:57,400 Speaker 3: Koram over one hundred and six and a half. The 628 00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:01,320 Speaker 3: books almost couldn't set that one high enough. I'm also 629 00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,600 Speaker 3: on the ladders. Bring that ladder up to heaven, baby 630 00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:07,280 Speaker 3: thors on the one up to you know, one fifteen, 631 00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,120 Speaker 3: the one up to one thirty, one fifty, you know, 632 00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:15,120 Speaker 3: juicing those odds all the way up. Blake Krum could 633 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,479 Speaker 3: get to two hundred plus in this game. It wouldn't 634 00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:19,920 Speaker 3: surprise me at all. I again, I don't see how 635 00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:22,920 Speaker 3: Washington stops him. Washington defense, the whole thing is just 636 00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:26,200 Speaker 3: we're not going to give you explosive plays. Michigan doesn't 637 00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,880 Speaker 3: go for explode. They don't care. They're you know, it's 638 00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:31,880 Speaker 3: just efficiency, efficiency, efficiency. It's the one thing Washington will 639 00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:34,960 Speaker 3: freely give you. This is a terrible matchup again, Roman Wilson. 640 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,440 Speaker 3: I went over his forty eight and a half yards. Uh, Michigan, 641 00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:41,520 Speaker 3: that's their big play, dude. It's the guy they go 642 00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,479 Speaker 3: to in money spots. I think during the regular season 643 00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,680 Speaker 3: it was he had forty eight receptions and twelve of 644 00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:49,960 Speaker 3: them were touchdowns. You know, like if you just look 645 00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:53,120 Speaker 3: at his road receiving line in the regular season, it 646 00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:55,800 Speaker 3: wasn't super impressive till you look to like the first 647 00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,280 Speaker 3: downs and touchdowns. It's like every time they need something, 648 00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:00,880 Speaker 3: they go to Roman Wilson. So I was all over 649 00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,120 Speaker 3: his props in the Alabama game, as anyone who read 650 00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,280 Speaker 3: my call him on betting pros would know. He hit everything. 651 00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:09,560 Speaker 3: He was over on the receptions, he was over on 652 00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:13,840 Speaker 3: the receiving yards, he hit his anytime touchdown. It's just 653 00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:16,360 Speaker 3: the dude, they go to when when they need stuff. 654 00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:18,480 Speaker 3: This is a money game. They will be going to 655 00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:22,120 Speaker 3: them again. I just took a nibble on Cornelie. I 656 00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:24,399 Speaker 3: just tossed cornel Lais Johnson into one of them at 657 00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:27,960 Speaker 3: forty one and a half, just because Washington's defense stinks. 658 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,399 Speaker 3: But that would be my lowest on the total poll. 659 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:33,520 Speaker 3: Probably of all the ones I tossed out, the other 660 00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:35,239 Speaker 3: three I like a lot more. Blake Korm is my 661 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:37,000 Speaker 3: favorite one of all the ones I've tossed out. 662 00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:42,520 Speaker 2: I mean, Mike, you made great counterpoints on the offensive 663 00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:45,480 Speaker 2: side when Washington has a ball. Do you have counterpoints 664 00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,680 Speaker 2: to make what Thor has when Michigan has a ball 665 00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:50,120 Speaker 2: for Washington's defense. 666 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:51,600 Speaker 1: I would love to hear them. Let's hear him. 667 00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,919 Speaker 4: I do sit now again. I'm agreeing with Thor here, 668 00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,080 Speaker 4: and I'll get to my props in the second. And 669 00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:00,920 Speaker 4: you know this isn't a good matchup. So I like 670 00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,480 Speaker 4: to play Devil's advocate and I like to give people hope. 671 00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:09,560 Speaker 4: The similar scheme and defensive team played Michigan last year 672 00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:13,320 Speaker 4: in the playoffs, and they were called the TCU Horned Frogs, 673 00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:17,360 Speaker 4: and they were kind of smallish upfront and they played 674 00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:20,800 Speaker 4: five d backs and you know, we saw what Georgia 675 00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:25,440 Speaker 4: did to them in the championship game, just played more physical, 676 00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:27,880 Speaker 4: destroyed them, got to that second level. There was just 677 00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,960 Speaker 4: absolutely no chance. That's what Michigan should have done. Guess 678 00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:33,520 Speaker 4: what they didn't do last year. They didn't do that. Now, 679 00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:38,000 Speaker 4: Jim Harbin's not an idiot. I can't see a you know, 680 00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:40,600 Speaker 4: a repeat of that. But just a couple of numbers 681 00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:44,600 Speaker 4: against TCU last year. TCU rushed the ball forty one 682 00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:48,200 Speaker 4: times against Michigan in that fifty one to forty five 683 00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:53,200 Speaker 4: offset victory. Michigan ran the ball forty times. They allowed 684 00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:56,160 Speaker 4: more rushing attempts to a team that isn't as good 685 00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:57,359 Speaker 4: as a power football team. 686 00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,879 Speaker 3: But anyway, that was defensive breakdowns, right, Mike. I mean, 687 00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:02,240 Speaker 3: you know Blake Korum didn't play in that game. Donald 688 00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:04,719 Speaker 3: Edwards at one hundred and nineteen rush yards have a 689 00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:07,480 Speaker 3: McCarty at yeah. 690 00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,359 Speaker 4: Because Blake Korum is the key to here, and I'm 691 00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:12,279 Speaker 4: getting I'm getting to that, and they fell behind. This 692 00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:15,040 Speaker 4: is the issue. You know, JJ McCarthy from thirty four 693 00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:18,160 Speaker 4: times in that football game that Max dug in through 694 00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,600 Speaker 4: twenty nine times. You know that should never in a 695 00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:23,600 Speaker 4: million years happen against this type of scheme, but they 696 00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:26,240 Speaker 4: came out. JJ McCarthy made a couple of early mistakes. 697 00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:29,920 Speaker 4: Panic ensued, Michigan started to feel, you know, they were 698 00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:31,719 Speaker 4: falling behind. They were down fourteen and nothing in the 699 00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:33,560 Speaker 4: first quarter. They started throwing the ball more, throwing the 700 00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:37,160 Speaker 4: ball more. Now, the one thing that's different, well, there's 701 00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:39,880 Speaker 4: two things that are different. Jim Harbaugh is not an idiot. 702 00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:42,040 Speaker 4: He's going to learn from that experience. And he also 703 00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,600 Speaker 4: saw what George's did the TC. He's probably kicked himself 704 00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:48,280 Speaker 4: the entire offseason and said, why didn't we do that. Secondly, 705 00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:50,520 Speaker 4: Blake Korum's playing in this football game. He did not 706 00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:53,440 Speaker 4: play in that football game. So Donovan Edwards was their 707 00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:56,080 Speaker 4: lead guy. He's a different back, thankum. Korum is a 708 00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,759 Speaker 4: guy who's going to get you three yards and then 709 00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:02,760 Speaker 4: fall forward for three more, or he's gonna bounce off tackles. 710 00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:04,840 Speaker 4: He's low to the ground, it's hard to get a 711 00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,840 Speaker 4: clean hit on. He's a much more evasive runner in 712 00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:11,080 Speaker 4: that respect, where Edwards is more of a seam gone 713 00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,600 Speaker 4: type of guy. But if you could bottle him up 714 00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:15,359 Speaker 4: he's not going to get all those extra guards over 715 00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:18,359 Speaker 4: where are you down? So Korm's the big difference here. 716 00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:21,800 Speaker 4: I'm just saying from this matchup perspective, it's an awful 717 00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:25,160 Speaker 4: one for Washington's defense, but it was an awful one 718 00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:28,680 Speaker 4: last year for Tecu's defense, and Michigan allowed them to 719 00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:32,440 Speaker 4: dictate the pace of that football game and make Michigan 720 00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:37,000 Speaker 4: play an uncomfortable style. But the difference is Blake Korm 721 00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:40,040 Speaker 4: wasn't there. So that being said, all of that, hope 722 00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,880 Speaker 4: that I just be a Washington fans. I'm gonna dash 723 00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:46,080 Speaker 4: because when I mentioned the offense versus defense, Washington versus Michigan, 724 00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:48,200 Speaker 4: I don't know what's going to happen. Michigan defense craving 725 00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,520 Speaker 4: and it's much crap. Quarterbacks spending is much better. Blah 726 00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:53,320 Speaker 4: blah blah. I know what's going to happen here unless 727 00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:58,439 Speaker 4: Jim Harbaugh just is so dumb that he can't learn 728 00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:01,600 Speaker 4: from his mistakes. And he's not. He's been tremendous this season. 729 00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:04,520 Speaker 4: Uh you know, coach Moore has been tremendous this season. 730 00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:06,879 Speaker 4: They know what they are and they're not gonna let 731 00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:10,160 Speaker 4: themselves get into shooting mat Washington. So Kormm is one 732 00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,640 Speaker 4: oh five point five rushing yards gonna go away over that. 733 00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:15,960 Speaker 4: That's probably the easiest bet you can have in this 734 00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,719 Speaker 4: entire game. They're going to be able to impose their will, 735 00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:21,800 Speaker 4: They're going to be able to run the football, and 736 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:26,080 Speaker 4: Washington's gonna have trouble, you know, pass rush. They're not 737 00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:29,240 Speaker 4: going to really get to j. J. McCarthy his rushing 738 00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:31,040 Speaker 4: yards twenty three and a half. I like him to 739 00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:34,400 Speaker 4: be over that. You know, Quinn Ewers, as you mentioned, 740 00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,759 Speaker 4: ran for much more than that. He's not really a 741 00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:40,840 Speaker 4: mobile quarterback. He's okay, But JAJ McCarthy much more athletic, 742 00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:45,560 Speaker 4: much better runner. McCarthy passing yards one ninety six point 743 00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:49,200 Speaker 4: five is tough. I'm gonna lean under because I don't 744 00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:50,920 Speaker 4: think they're gonna have to throw the football very much, 745 00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:52,920 Speaker 4: and I hope they don't. If he goes over that, 746 00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:54,840 Speaker 4: we're gonna have a close football, Yeah, and everybody can 747 00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,720 Speaker 4: be happy. But he's got to be under that number. 748 00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:01,319 Speaker 4: It can't be like last year against TCU, you know, 749 00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:05,080 Speaker 4: and then you know the receiving props. I do like 750 00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:08,120 Speaker 4: Roman Wilson over forty eight and a half simply because 751 00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:10,840 Speaker 4: he's a chunk guy, and they're gonna have a couple 752 00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:14,400 Speaker 4: you know, downfield throws to keep everybody honest, blah blah blah, 753 00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:18,160 Speaker 4: And to be honest, Washington's gonna sell out big time 754 00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:21,120 Speaker 4: to stop the run. I mean, you know, they play 755 00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:23,680 Speaker 4: this this scheme with five defense at backs. Well, two 756 00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,840 Speaker 4: of those guys are gonna be playing seven yard linebacker positions. Essentially, 757 00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:28,880 Speaker 4: they're gonna have to be close to the line of scrimmage, 758 00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,640 Speaker 4: fill that box, and they're gonna have to sell out, 759 00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:33,719 Speaker 4: which is going to allow a speedy receiver like that 760 00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:35,759 Speaker 4: to catch a couple of long passes. So he's gonna 761 00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:39,680 Speaker 4: go over easy. I'm not touching Cornelius Johnson, you know, 762 00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:42,360 Speaker 4: so I'm agreeing with most of this. Coaston Lovelin, I 763 00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:44,040 Speaker 4: think is gonna go over thirty four and a half 764 00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:47,760 Speaker 4: as well. Donovan Edwards receiving yards was pretty good all season. 765 00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:50,440 Speaker 4: If you wanted to make money, he's fifteen and a half. 766 00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:52,399 Speaker 4: I would go over that as well. But that's gonna 767 00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:54,320 Speaker 4: be the bulk of their passing game is a couple 768 00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:57,200 Speaker 4: downfield of Wilson, you know, a couple in the middle 769 00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,279 Speaker 4: to to Loveland, to get over that thirty four and 770 00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:03,359 Speaker 4: a half couple some passes to Edwards, run run, run, run, run, 771 00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:05,760 Speaker 4: So the one oh five point five is easy money. 772 00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:07,839 Speaker 4: And like Dora said, and this is something that I've 773 00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:11,000 Speaker 4: been starting to do more this season, is taking what 774 00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:14,839 Speaker 4: I call a cascade bet. And I will start at 775 00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:19,640 Speaker 4: the you know negative, you know Blake Horn's rushing yards. 776 00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:21,920 Speaker 4: Maybe you'll start at one hundred or something like that. 777 00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:23,880 Speaker 4: You get a negative two sixty, and then you go 778 00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:25,920 Speaker 4: won ten and you go one twenty run and then 779 00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:27,920 Speaker 4: you get up to the pluses when you're over one 780 00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:32,839 Speaker 4: fifty one sixty, do that cascade him, and you're gonna 781 00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:35,759 Speaker 4: make a ton of money, a ton of money because 782 00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:38,520 Speaker 4: if you do that, like a twenty dollars bet each time, 783 00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:41,040 Speaker 4: with the pluses that you're gonna get near the end 784 00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:42,800 Speaker 4: there when he goes over one hundred and sixty hundred 785 00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:44,640 Speaker 4: and seventy yards, he'll make a ton of money. So 786 00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:46,840 Speaker 4: that's what I see here. That's why I think Michigan 787 00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,600 Speaker 4: is gonna win. You know, spoiler alert, I'm taking them 788 00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:53,520 Speaker 4: with the spread to cover because their physical offense is 789 00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:58,080 Speaker 4: gonna beat the this this you know overmatch defense of Washington, 790 00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:00,799 Speaker 4: and I think they're gonna probably will win this game 791 00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:01,800 Speaker 4: by a couple of touchdowns. 792 00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:04,319 Speaker 2: All right, so you're on, You're on Michigan on the 793 00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:07,600 Speaker 2: over under Mike uh fifty five and a half, fifty 794 00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:08,640 Speaker 2: six and somewhere in that range. 795 00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:12,120 Speaker 4: That's a tough one because you know, again Michigan, they 796 00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:17,200 Speaker 4: don't allow a lot of points. I'm going to lean under. Okay, 797 00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:19,960 Speaker 4: I think I think Washington's going to score seventeen to 798 00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:23,400 Speaker 4: twenty points here, and I don't think Michigan's going to 799 00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:25,200 Speaker 4: put up a ton. I think they're going to win 800 00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:29,120 Speaker 4: this game, maybe thirty one to twenty and come under that. 801 00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,560 Speaker 1: Thor is is the official pick here? Is it? Michigan 802 00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:34,439 Speaker 1: in the under as well? 803 00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:39,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, Michigan. As you know, Bogman was my preseason national 804 00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:42,799 Speaker 3: title pick. It could not be any other way. We've 805 00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:45,120 Speaker 3: been riding them all season and it will be Michigan 806 00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:49,400 Speaker 3: for me. Uh So going Michigan and in line with that, 807 00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:53,440 Speaker 3: if you like Michigan, I think you got to like 808 00:41:53,520 --> 00:42:00,399 Speaker 3: the under my system, it's it's right around there. But yeah, 809 00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:03,080 Speaker 3: we're we're gonna go with the under on this one. 810 00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:06,520 Speaker 3: I feel like, you know the way this game plays out. 811 00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:10,080 Speaker 3: What is Michigan's prerogative in this thing, It's to control 812 00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:13,000 Speaker 3: the ball with the ground game, which we know by 813 00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:15,520 Speaker 3: the matchup is they're gonna be able to do. They're 814 00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:17,960 Speaker 3: gonna grind the clock. The one other thing that I 815 00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:20,880 Speaker 3: would say about this, it's not just Michigan that plays 816 00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:24,600 Speaker 3: at the methodical tempo, and maybe methodical doesn't even go 817 00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:27,960 Speaker 3: far enough. Michigan is one hundred and thirtieth again out 818 00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,440 Speaker 3: of one thirty three in the nation and adjusted tempo. 819 00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:33,280 Speaker 3: You know who else likes to play at a snails space. 820 00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:36,360 Speaker 3: Washington is one to eleven in adjust the tempo. So 821 00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,719 Speaker 3: both these teams play extremely slow. And with Washington or 822 00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:41,799 Speaker 3: with Michigan, with all the plays that they're gonna have 823 00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:44,319 Speaker 3: on their snaps because washingt can't stop the run, they're 824 00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,759 Speaker 3: gonna have these really, really long drives. So Washington for 825 00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:51,279 Speaker 3: this game to go over, Washington needs to, I mean, 826 00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:54,480 Speaker 3: take advantage of the limited possessions that they're going to 827 00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:56,719 Speaker 3: have because of the way that Michigan's they're gonna have 828 00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,960 Speaker 3: the offensive success. Washington is gonna have way less possis 829 00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:03,080 Speaker 3: esis then they have in a general game. They're going 830 00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:06,799 Speaker 3: to have to have ridiculous efficiency on their drives. I 831 00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:09,920 Speaker 3: feel like for this game to get sixty points or whatever, 832 00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:12,680 Speaker 3: you know, we're gonna need to go over. I just 833 00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:15,000 Speaker 3: don't see it happening. So that's why I'm gonna go 834 00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:17,280 Speaker 3: under on this game. I'm gonna lay the points with 835 00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:20,280 Speaker 3: with Michigan, and that's that's what we're doing in this one. 836 00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:22,719 Speaker 1: All right, Well, look that is going to do it 837 00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:23,560 Speaker 1: for us, gentlemen. 838 00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:26,600 Speaker 2: It has been a pleasure this college football season talking 839 00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:28,920 Speaker 2: to you guys every week to preview every week, and 840 00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:32,520 Speaker 2: we will be back very soon as well. So remember 841 00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:34,920 Speaker 2: you can follow us all on Twitter at Bogman Sports 842 00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:38,560 Speaker 2: for myself, at thor Ku for Thor and at m 843 00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:41,600 Speaker 2: Ferrell Sports to ours, two l's for Mike, and we 844 00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:42,759 Speaker 2: will see you guys next time. 845 00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:43,960 Speaker 1: Take it easy, everybody. 846 00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:47,239 Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 847 00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:49,640 Speaker 5: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 848 00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:53,080 Speaker 5: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 849 00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:56,040 Speaker 5: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 850 00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:59,720 Speaker 5: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 851 00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:02,320 Speaker 5: Channe at YouTube dot com. 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