WEBVTT - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Talks Rate Decision

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<v Speaker 1>The Bank of England cut it's benchmark interest rate by

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<v Speaker 1>a quarter point to four point seventy five percent. On Thursday.

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<v Speaker 1>Governor Andrew Bailey joined Bloomberg's farant Scene Lacroix shortly after

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<v Speaker 1>the decision to discuss GOVERNTT.

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<v Speaker 2>When you look at what the market is expecting, does

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<v Speaker 2>gradual mean quarterly in terms of interest rate cuts.

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<v Speaker 3>Pass downwards? I think there are a lot of uncertainties

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<v Speaker 3>out there, both in the world and there's domestic uncertainties

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<v Speaker 3>as well. So we've emphasized the word gradual again because

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<v Speaker 3>you know, we're going to have to take account of

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<v Speaker 3>how those uncertainties play through. I'm not really in a

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<v Speaker 3>position when there's any of a certain position to say, well,

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<v Speaker 3>gradual means every so often.

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<v Speaker 2>That is not a judgment that we make, but it's

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<v Speaker 2>a judgment that the markets are making. So if you

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<v Speaker 2>take away any major sharks, does it seem.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, Well, I think the markets have made that judgment,

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<v Speaker 3>you know. I think it's a reasonable reflection of the

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<v Speaker 3>forecast that we've published today. By the way, but we

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<v Speaker 3>should played my condition on the market curve, so it's

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<v Speaker 3>a reasonable sort of reflection of that judgment. That we

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<v Speaker 3>think inflation is going to come back to target sustainably

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<v Speaker 3>within the sort of horizon that we look at.

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<v Speaker 2>Governor of the Chancellor said, she spoke to you at

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<v Speaker 2>the IMF, asked about the budgets and the things that

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<v Speaker 2>were coming up. Did you warn her of market volatility

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<v Speaker 2>or what the market.

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<v Speaker 3>Would do well, we talked at the IMF, but I

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<v Speaker 3>think the chance has said we talked about the IMF

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<v Speaker 3>about her evolving thinking about the budget and her evolving

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<v Speaker 3>thinking about the fiscal rules we have. I mean the

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<v Speaker 3>way you know, we have a very regular dialogue. As

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<v Speaker 3>you know, I'm on my six chancellor since I was appointed,

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<v Speaker 3>fifth since I started, and with all of them, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>we have a very regular dialogue. So chances when I

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<v Speaker 3>do that. So we talked in Washington about how evolving

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<v Speaker 3>thinking about the about the budget, about the fiscal rules,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think the Chances said, you know, we talked

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<v Speaker 3>last week about markets. She asked me for my assessment

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<v Speaker 3>of markets. As the Bank of England is we provide

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<v Speaker 3>the Treasury with our assessment because it's obviously something that

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<v Speaker 3>we're very close to. I'm very very open and willing

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<v Speaker 3>to provide that assessment. So yes, we talked through the

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<v Speaker 3>assessment of markets, but.

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<v Speaker 2>This was before the event, so it was it was

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<v Speaker 2>a market rational expense did on your side.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, both before and during. Actually, so I think that

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<v Speaker 3>if you go back to the being of last week

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<v Speaker 3>and our assessment of sterling rates, markets were so at

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<v Speaker 3>the shorter end, they were sort of positioned long for

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<v Speaker 3>interest rates to go down further than further was expected.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that that obviously changed during the week. It

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<v Speaker 3>wasn't surprising to me therefore that there was a closing

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<v Speaker 3>out of positions and probably stop stop orders were being

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<v Speaker 3>hit that closing out needed to take place. I think

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<v Speaker 3>it took place in an orderly fashion. We weren't seeing

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<v Speaker 3>disorder in the markets. And by the way, I think

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<v Speaker 3>by really by Friday afternoon paced non farm payrolls. They're

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<v Speaker 3>really the dominating event in markets was expectation of the

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<v Speaker 3>US election, not the not the UK budget.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you think the Chanceller was expecting markets to behave

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<v Speaker 2>that way?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think this is this was obviously a big budget,

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<v Speaker 3>as the Chanceller has self said, so I think it's

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<v Speaker 3>reasonable to expect that markets will respond to it. I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>they knew some of things they didn't know, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>they didn't know the precise form of it until it

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<v Speaker 3>was delivered by the Chancer in Parliament. So I think

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<v Speaker 3>it was it was entirely appropriate to have some reaction

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<v Speaker 3>in markets. But the point is it's been an orderly reaction.

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<v Speaker 3>That's markets move. We should expect markets to move. It's

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<v Speaker 3>only when they become disorderly that we should be concerned

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<v Speaker 3>in that sense.

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<v Speaker 2>Ken, And I know you're very reluctant to talk. You

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<v Speaker 2>know what possible trade wars or tariffs from the US

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<v Speaker 2>would look like on the economy. But would they be

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<v Speaker 2>inflationary or would they reduce growth?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I mean we don't know anounced that question, I

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<v Speaker 3>think ye. What I will say is, look, the UK

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<v Speaker 3>is a very open economy, so obviously this area matters.

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<v Speaker 3>That the Chancellor has said yesterday and today quite rightly,

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<v Speaker 3>and I will join her in this that she will

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<v Speaker 3>make the case for open markets and free trade, and

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<v Speaker 3>I will strongly support her in this because I'm a

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<v Speaker 3>very strong supporter of free trade. I think you would

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<v Speaker 3>expect the UK to do that. We have very proud

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<v Speaker 3>history of free trade in this country. We will, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>we will, no doubt you know, say our peace and

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<v Speaker 3>make our case, but we'll see. I think it's important

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<v Speaker 3>just to say, look, let's get let the new US

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<v Speaker 3>administration get into office. We will work with them. We

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<v Speaker 3>worked with all I've worked with a lot of US

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<v Speaker 3>administrators though for my career. We will work with the

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<v Speaker 3>next US administration just as we do the current one,

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<v Speaker 3>and we did with the previous Trump administration. By the way,

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<v Speaker 3>I expect constructive relations and we will have a good dialogue.

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<v Speaker 2>But are you expecting a more fragmented world? And what

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<v Speaker 2>does that mean for central bank pasty?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I mean I worry about a more fragmented world

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<v Speaker 3>in a more general sense. I'm not saying this is

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<v Speaker 3>entirely due to the US administration, because it clearly isn't.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a lot of things going on in the world

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<v Speaker 3>which are a very tragic and be are a risk

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<v Speaker 3>to the fragmentation of the world economy, and in the

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<v Speaker 3>fragmentation of the world economy is not a good thing.

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<v Speaker 2>Clearly, Governor, when you look at you know the next

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<v Speaker 2>basis that they came in the budget, how do you

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<v Speaker 2>how do you expect that to play in wages, in inflation,

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<v Speaker 2>revenue for a lot of businesses.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think there are a number of channels through

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<v Speaker 3>which this can come and by the way, they're not

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<v Speaker 3>mutually exclusive, and by the way, they don't need to

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<v Speaker 3>be constant. They won't be constant over time either. So

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<v Speaker 3>it can clearly come through higher prices, it could come

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<v Speaker 3>through lower wages, it could come through a lower level

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<v Speaker 3>of employment, it could come through lower profit margins, it

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<v Speaker 3>could come through increased productivity, and it could come through

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<v Speaker 3>all of those. We've made a very sort of frankly

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<v Speaker 3>cautious and almost slightly neutral assumption in today because we

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<v Speaker 3>want to see how this plays out of our agents

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<v Speaker 3>will be out there asking businesses. So we've sort of

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<v Speaker 3>assumed a mixture, frankly, of some wage effects and some

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<v Speaker 3>price effects. I think over time, if you look at

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<v Speaker 3>past events, you would expect probably some initial impact on

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<v Speaker 3>profit margins because it's not always easy for firms to adjust,

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<v Speaker 3>but then they do naturally tend to rebuild margins over time.

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<v Speaker 3>So let's say there's both a time profile and it's

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<v Speaker 3>sort of across the section profile, so we'll.

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<v Speaker 2>See Governor, there's also going to be a lot more

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<v Speaker 2>bondishments around the world. The US does that automatically, mean

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<v Speaker 2>that is going to be a premium. Is it going

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<v Speaker 2>to be difficult to sell all of these bonds?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think, you know, we'll have to observe that.

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<v Speaker 3>I would say so far, I would, I would observe.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, we have seen increased bond assurance actually both

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<v Speaker 3>and both by the way, both private and public. Actually,

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<v Speaker 3>so let's say that, and I think markets have absorbed

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<v Speaker 3>it well, but I think we have to watch We

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<v Speaker 3>do have to watch this though carefully clearly.

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<v Speaker 2>I think when Bloomberg spoke to Donald Trump a couple

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<v Speaker 2>of weeks ago, he said that Jay Powell has the

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<v Speaker 2>easiest job in the world because it's a he doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>really shop at work. He's had and it was a

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<v Speaker 2>coin flip every month to what interest rates? Do do

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<v Speaker 2>you feel like you have an easy job?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, actually, I do come to work five days a week.

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<v Speaker 3>I also do work at weekends. I travel a lot,

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<v Speaker 3>I work in you know, quite hard. So I probably

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<v Speaker 3>would beg to differ on that point, I think, by

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<v Speaker 3>the way, I think no doubt presidents of the US

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<v Speaker 3>work enormously hard, by the way, so I don't when

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<v Speaker 3>any signs wants to take away from that but the

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<v Speaker 3>work effict amongst central bank governors and central bank is

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<v Speaker 3>in my experience, pretty pretty pretty good one and a

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<v Speaker 3>pretty hard one.

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<v Speaker 1>That was Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaking with

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's Francine Lacroix