WEBVTT - What Foreign Policy Under Harris or Trump May Look Like 0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:08.240 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:10.440 --> 0:00:12.880 She certainly lays out a very different vision for the 0:00:12.960 --> 0:00:15.200 United States than former President Trump does. 0:00:22.760 --> 0:00:26.680 Welcome back to voter Nomics, where politics and markets collide. 0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:29.120 This year, voters around the world have the ability to 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:33.479 affect markets, countries, and economies like never before, so we 0:00:33.520 --> 0:00:36.239 created this series to help you make sense of it all. 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:39.680 I'm Stephanie Flanders and I'm a Woodridge and our co 0:00:39.800 --> 0:00:42.640 host Alegra Stratton is not quite back in the saddles. 0:00:42.640 --> 0:00:45.240 She'll be back next week. Adrian, we are. It feels 0:00:45.240 --> 0:00:48.120 like the beginning of term. We're back together again, and 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:49.920 just a few things have happened in the last month 0:00:50.000 --> 0:00:50.159 or so. 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:54.240 Absolutely, it is indeed the beginning of term. An extraordinary 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:57.040 number of things have happened. I think, in particular, the 0:00:57.440 --> 0:01:01.240 American election has been turned on its head. When we left, 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:04.520 it looked as though Donald Trump was almost as certain 0:01:04.560 --> 0:01:06.479 did to get into the White House. Now it looks 0:01:06.480 --> 0:01:09.880 as though he's the outside candidate. So extraordinary change, yes, 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:10.880 and well we'll see. 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:12.760 I mean, he would probably not accept that he's an 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:15.880 outside candidate, and even our own swing state poles suggest 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:18.440 it's still very much in the balance, But you're right, 0:01:18.480 --> 0:01:21.120 everything has changed. I mean, what we're going to focus 0:01:21.160 --> 0:01:25.400 on today is the foreign policy side of the election, 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:27.319 and we're going to be talking to a former senior 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:31.560 official in both the Obama and Clinton administrations. So you 0:01:31.760 --> 0:01:34.479 just heard there, Mike Frohman, now head of the Council 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:39.760 of Foreign Relations. I was struck Adrian in Chicago watching Kamala 0:01:39.800 --> 0:01:44.160 Harris's acceptance speech. There was probably more on foreign policy 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:46.800 in her speech than any other one at the convention, 0:01:47.160 --> 0:01:49.840 but that wasn't a high bar. No one was talking 0:01:49.880 --> 0:01:53.560 about it very much. What is amazing is and a 0:01:53.640 --> 0:01:57.640 function of how quickly this campaign has changed, is a 0:01:57.680 --> 0:02:00.600 few lines on foreign policy in that convey and speech 0:02:00.680 --> 0:02:03.040 is probably going to be all that we get from 0:02:03.080 --> 0:02:08.239 her on foreign policy before next week's debate with Donald 0:02:08.240 --> 0:02:09.880 Trump on September tenth. 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:13.000 In one sense, it's an incredibly frustrating thing because the 0:02:13.040 --> 0:02:16.600 world is on fire and we're not hearing about these 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:20.560 massively important issues. But on the other hand, America is 0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:23.040 a big country. It's an inwood looking country, and elections 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:26.120 do not tend to turn on foreign policy. Foreign policy 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:29.040 is an issue for wants, it's an issue for eccentrics, 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:31.440 but it's not the issue that people vote on. People 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:34.120 vote on pocket book issues. So she is doing the 0:02:34.160 --> 0:02:36.840 sensible thing in many ways. So we know a great 0:02:36.960 --> 0:02:41.200 deal about her cooking abilities, and we know almost nothing 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:43.560 about what she thinks about NATO except that she's broadly 0:02:43.560 --> 0:02:44.160 in favor of it. 0:02:44.400 --> 0:02:47.000 I should say, although we've all supposedly been on holiday, 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:50.280 I can't help noticing that you have still written quite 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:54.320 a few columns since we last spoke, particularly relating to 0:02:54.880 --> 0:02:58.400 Kastarmer's first few weeks as Prime Minister in this new 0:02:58.480 --> 0:03:01.600 Labor government. And one thing that has been a theme 0:03:02.080 --> 0:03:04.960 has been housing. And all these elections that we've covered 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:08.000 on this podcast for you know, through this year and 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:11.040 now looking to the US election, the cost of housing 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:15.080 housing supply has just emerged as this major issue in 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:18.280 almost every election we look at, and sort of related 0:03:18.360 --> 0:03:22.919 to that, as politicians grasp for ways to increase housing supply. 0:03:22.960 --> 0:03:26.960 There's been this kind of war declared on Nimbi's and 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:29.960 both you know, Carla Harris and many Democrats in the 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:34.360 Convention we're talking about raising housing supply. Also here in 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:38.280 the UK, a war on Nimbi's being waged by labor 0:03:38.480 --> 0:03:41.000 and you have some reservations about it. You had a 0:03:41.000 --> 0:03:43.560 brilliant sort of tipbit in your which I hadn't noticed 0:03:43.600 --> 0:03:46.440 in your discussion around the nimbi's in your in your 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:49.000 column way, so that although he said polent suggests that 0:03:49.080 --> 0:03:51.520 people are far less opposed to new housing developments if 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:55.760 they're esthetically pleasing. Yet Angela Rayner last scene I should 0:03:55.840 --> 0:04:01.800 mention quite recently raving in Abitha, the Deputy Prime Minister 0:04:01.920 --> 0:04:04.840 and Secretary of State for Housing, has imperiously removed the 0:04:04.880 --> 0:04:07.960 requirement that new buildings should be beautiful on the grounds 0:04:07.960 --> 0:04:12.960 that beautiful means nothing. Really. That does seem quite controversial. 0:04:13.960 --> 0:04:16.599 If you have a party that had, you know, was 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:20.240 inspired by John Ruskin and William Morrison, people who thought 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:22.880 that beauty should be democratized, that there was no reason 0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:25.760 why ordinary people shouldn't have access to beauty. It seems 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:29.200 a pretty terrible thing to say, but she certainly redeemed 0:04:29.200 --> 0:04:30.920 herself by her raving this weekend. 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:33.960 We've gone from being fed up for experts with you know, 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:36.200 not caring about beauty. I don't know, I don't know 0:04:36.240 --> 0:04:38.799 which is best. But we are thinking about foreign policy 0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:41.640 and we also we're supposed to on this podcast be 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:45.400 recording any number of elections happening this year, and there 0:04:45.400 --> 0:04:49.159 has been breaking news from Germany this weekend. Two state 0:04:49.240 --> 0:04:52.800 elections that we the world probably wouldn't usually pay attention to, 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:57.360 in Thringia and Saxony, but they have both shaken up 0:04:57.880 --> 0:05:03.080 Germany's establishment parties and the results have potentially also held 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:09.120 some pretty significant warnings for Olave Schultz's federal elections next year. 0:05:11.920 --> 0:05:15.600 So let's get to our quick on the ground conversation 0:05:16.000 --> 0:05:20.760 with our senior editor in Berlin, Alan Crawford. Alan, thanks 0:05:20.839 --> 0:05:21.760 very much for joining us. 0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:23.520 Hello, thank you Stephanie. 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:27.040 For those who haven't paid attention to the details, but 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:30.640 perhaps don't want to hear all the details, could you 0:05:30.760 --> 0:05:35.960 just remind us why these two state elections were more significant, 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:38.159 perhaps than usual, certainly for the rest of the world. 0:05:38.400 --> 0:05:41.000 What grabbed the headlines was the fact that the far 0:05:41.160 --> 0:05:44.159 rate has won a stateu action for the first time 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:49.520 since the Nazis in the Second World War, and that 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:55.120 foil shocking is not all that surprising because the polls 0:05:55.120 --> 0:05:57.880 have been indicating this was the case, this would be 0:05:57.920 --> 0:06:01.479 the case for a long time. Also, this the far 0:06:01.640 --> 0:06:05.840 right party the alternative for Germany that a SDA to 0:06:05.960 --> 0:06:10.719 use the German acronym is it's anti immigration, it's largely 0:06:11.080 --> 0:06:14.840 pro putine, and it really seems to have tapped into 0:06:14.880 --> 0:06:18.680 a vein, particularly in the east of Germany. So it 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:21.839 placed first in the state of Turin, which is actually 0:06:21.880 --> 0:06:26.400 a beautiful state, picture postcardtowns, and in Saxony, which is 0:06:26.440 --> 0:06:30.760 the center of the semiconductor industry, so you know there's 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:33.719 a significance there in economic terms. 0:06:33.760 --> 0:06:36.920 Potentially, you've just described two very different states in terms 0:06:36.960 --> 0:06:39.880 of where we can't put this all down to economic discontent. 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:43.200 We often talk about foreign policy not determining elections, but 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:48.440 foreign policy and specifically support for Ukraine has figured very 0:06:48.480 --> 0:06:50.720 prominently in both very much. 0:06:50.760 --> 0:06:55.120 So there's an open goal, if you like, in attacking 0:06:55.200 --> 0:06:58.920 the coalition the federal government in Berlin. It's a three 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:03.560 way coalition that deeply unpopular. It's led by the Social Democrats. 0:07:03.600 --> 0:07:07.400 Olaf Schultz is the chancellor, with the Greens party and 0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:11.080 also with the Free Democrats kind of liberal pro business party, 0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:16.080 and they all perform disaster disastrously in these state elections. 0:07:16.720 --> 0:07:21.040 But yes, they're flailing. As governments across Europe are over 0:07:21.080 --> 0:07:26.320 the issue of immigration and Germany, despite its slow start, 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:29.960 it was also it's now also the largest contributor apart 0:07:29.960 --> 0:07:33.400 from the US, of military aid to Ukraine, and both 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:37.239 those policies, in terms of open immigration policy and helping 0:07:37.360 --> 0:07:41.120 Ukraine are deeply unpopular in sections of society. 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:44.320 How does the pro puting side of this fit in? 0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:45.840 How can we explain that? 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:49.840 Well, it's actually not all that difficult to explain. Both 0:07:49.880 --> 0:07:53.880 those states are in the eastern part of Germany. Poles 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:58.000 consistently show that Germans as a whole are in favor 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:04.320 of helping Ukraine a slim majority, but a large number 0:08:04.360 --> 0:08:07.600 of this majority are in the east. Of this minority rather, 0:08:07.640 --> 0:08:11.520 who are against helping u train are in the East, 0:08:12.520 --> 0:08:15.200 And yeah, there's something of a dichotomy there for obvious 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:18.080 reasons that you know, it was the Soviet dominated part 0:08:18.160 --> 0:08:22.880 of the country, but they're nevertheless, is also an allied 0:08:22.920 --> 0:08:28.520 distrust of NATO, distrust of the US, and frankly, many 0:08:28.560 --> 0:08:32.160 people I've spoken to people who feel very uncomfortable with 0:08:32.200 --> 0:08:36.680 the idea of supplying weapons into a war, which overturned 0:08:37.320 --> 0:08:40.760 a longstanding German policy, and they feel that that's fueling 0:08:40.800 --> 0:08:42.600 the conflict rather than resolving it. 0:08:42.840 --> 0:08:44.839 But I would have thought if you'd lived under the 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:49.439 hail of Soviet dictatorship, you'd be pretty wary of booting. 0:08:49.720 --> 0:08:52.800 Yes, but that's very much a Western perception of how 0:08:52.840 --> 0:08:56.200 people in the East think, and and that gets to 0:08:56.240 --> 0:09:00.920 the nub of this protest that they don't feel represented 0:09:01.000 --> 0:09:05.000 by the establishment parties. That Another one of the headlines 0:09:05.920 --> 0:09:09.840 from yesterday's results was the fact that a party called 0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:13.680 the bs W it's named after a woman, Zarawagenconnecht, who 0:09:13.760 --> 0:09:18.640 is a former communist. That party placed third. It came 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:21.920 from nowhere, it was only formed earlier this year, and 0:09:21.960 --> 0:09:25.040 it comes with a broadly left up sitting well, you know, 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:29.479 pretty left wing economic stance, but it's also anti immigration 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:34.120 and anti help for Ukraine. It did incredibly well and 0:09:34.160 --> 0:09:37.000 could well be in the state governments. So that's an 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:40.440 indication of really the kind of the way that politics 0:09:40.559 --> 0:09:44.120 is being turned on its head, particularly in the East. 0:09:44.679 --> 0:09:46.840 I mean, just on that point we tend to focus 0:09:46.880 --> 0:09:49.160 and of course the sort of the world is very 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:52.640 sort of transfixed with the alternative at Deutschland and you know, 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:55.240 obviously with the echoes of the of the Nazi past, 0:09:55.360 --> 0:09:57.360 but we shouldn't forget that. One of the striking things 0:09:57.360 --> 0:09:59.679 about these two elections was the strength of the new 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:03.400 b W alliance of the far left, and they're going 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:06.360 to play a kind of key role in, if you like, 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:09.679 keeping the AfD out of power in these coalitions in 0:10:09.720 --> 0:10:11.280 the states. So tell us a bit about them. 0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:15.520 They almost certainly will do, because of course, coalition building 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:18.280 is extremely difficult when you have a party that scores 0:10:18.600 --> 0:10:21.520 something like thirty percent and above of the vote but 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:24.679 is excluded by the very nature of the fact that 0:10:24.840 --> 0:10:29.520 the other parties refused to form a coalition. Yeah, the 0:10:29.600 --> 0:10:35.439 BSW Zara wagenconnect is. I mean, she's essentially a populist 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:41.120 politician who she is constantly on television chat shows. Nothing 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:44.319 wrong with that, of course, but she was found to 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:47.760 have took part in very few votes in the Bundestag 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:53.320 over the last session. She has really been very politically astute. 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:57.160 It's very easy to categorize voters, you know, when they 0:10:57.240 --> 0:10:59.120 vote like this. But she saw that there was an 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:04.280 opening for a party that was conservative in social positions 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:08.480 but not necessarily economically. And I think that she's opened 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:11.920 up the way both into government in these states but 0:11:12.040 --> 0:11:15.480 also potentially federally at the next election, which is too 0:11:16.200 --> 0:11:18.600 a year from now, September twenty twenty five. 0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:22.480 So often the more extremist parties have tended to be 0:11:22.640 --> 0:11:25.240 on the right and not also on the left in 0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:30.360 response to recent economic and immigration trends. It's very interesting 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:34.439 that we are actually seeing that in Germany. But the 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:37.120 immediate just quickly, Alan is sort of the immediate follow 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:39.880 up to this for Ola Schulz, does it change the 0:11:39.920 --> 0:11:44.040 way that he's trying to shore up his coalition going forward. 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:47.199 Not really no, because he I mean, apart from the 0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:52.680 fact he's bullheaded and stubborn. Then there's a third state 0:11:52.760 --> 0:11:56.440 election in the east in Brandenburg, which surrounds Berlin later 0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:59.400 on this month. The SPD, his party, is not looking 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:02.959 so bad in that election. The AfD will do well, 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:06.319 the BSW will do well, but SBD is not down 0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:09.280 and out there. And also, as I said, the a 0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:12.000 FD is not going to enter government in any of 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:15.599 these states. So it's a lot of noise. But I 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:19.240 think it's important to also look that the center right, 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:23.120 the former party of mercle, the Christian Democrats, it kind 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:27.199 of held pretty steady. They will probably form the government, 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:31.800 the majority party in the States and Poles continually show 0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:34.760 that they're on course to win the next federal election. 0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:36.200 So this is not France. 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:39.959 I'm Crawford, thank you, thank you so much. He's reminded 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:41.760 us that one of the things that has not changed 0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:43.959 since we last spoke is that there's still now French 0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:47.920 government formally speaking, or at least now new government after 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:51.000 the legislative election. But maybe in the next few weeks 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:52.880 we'll be able to talk about a new French government. 0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:02.400 Let's get to that conversation that Adrian and I had 0:13:02.559 --> 0:13:05.599 just a few moments ago with an extremely distinguished practitioner 0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:10.120 and thinker on foreign policy, Mike Frohman, now president of 0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:13.400 the American think tank the Council on Foreign Relations, but 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:17.960 previously a senior official for both President Clinton and President Obama. 0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:21.760 He ended up as US Trade Representative for President Obama 0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:25.080 in his second administration. And I started by asking him 0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:27.800 whether we should care that Kamala Harris seems to have 0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:30.800 been talking about foreign policy as little as possible. 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:35.400 I don't think that's terribly surprising. I mean, first of all, 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:42.040 elections rarely turn on foreign policy concerns. This election, foreign 0:13:42.040 --> 0:13:44.839 policy may play more of a role than traditionally. But 0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:48.160 I think to the degree that she needs to distinguish 0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:52.959 herself from both Trump and from Biden, she's seeking to 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:55.960 do so, really in the area of economics and really 0:13:56.000 --> 0:14:00.520 in the area of domestic economic policy. Her plan to 0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:04.920 reduce inflation, price controls, et cetera, with certainly a stab 0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:08.360 at saying that she recognizes how important inflation is to 0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:10.800 the American public and she wants to take action against it. 0:14:11.080 --> 0:14:13.200 And in general, there is where she's not talking about 0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:14.920 we should just sort of assume that she's going to 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:17.000 be the same as Biden. Is that the general message? 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:19.560 I mean, we don't know yet. I mean, I think 0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:23.360 she has at least indicated she is willing to go 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:26.760 further in certain areas, for example this price control and 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:31.120 gouging price gouging area in foreign policy. Again, we haven't 0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:33.240 seen a lot of science that she's going to be 0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:36.080 a different place, some different emphasis, including perhaps on the 0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:39.440 Palestinian issue. But she has been part of the Biden administration. 0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:44.720 She is sent in innumerable situation room meetings with the 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:47.560 President and the senior team working through these issues. Over 0:14:47.640 --> 0:14:50.440 the last four years, she's traveled on behalf of the 0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:56.320 administration several times to every continents, virtually every continent. She's 0:14:56.320 --> 0:14:59.000 met one hundred and fifty four meters. So she has 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:03.520 been part of the Biden administration's foreign policy team for 0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:06.200 the last three and a half years, and you would 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:08.840 expect there'd be a fair degree of continuity at least 0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:09.440 some perspective. 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:12.680 But if I'm a sort of undecided voter, if such 0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:14.960 a thing exists in the United States at the moment, 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:17.880 it's very difficult for me to think of data points 0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:21.360 on which to make up my mind between her and Trump. 0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:23.480 In she's a bit of a blank slate. I mean, 0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:26.360 she's not quite Biden. I'm not voting. If I was 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:28.240 voting for Biden, I'd be voting for somebody with an 0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:31.040 enormous amount of experience and with great clarity about what 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:34.680 his foreign policy is. With her, I'm voting for somebody 0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:37.840 who's been in charge of the border, well that was 0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:40.400 a bit of a disaster. Who's come down on this 0:15:40.520 --> 0:15:43.600 side or that side of issues such as the Palestinian issue. 0:15:43.800 --> 0:15:47.680 Who's deliberately dealing in a world of vagueness and vibes 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:50.520 at a time when the world is enormously dangerous. 0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:54.440 I'm a bit worried it sounds like you as the 0:15:54.600 --> 0:15:58.760 undecided but highly policy oriented voter who may be a 0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:02.880 rare breed. There's certainly thousands of data points to distinguish 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:06.840 her from former President Trump. I mean, she is and 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:09.920 she has a long record, whether it's a senator, as 0:16:09.920 --> 0:16:12.680 Attorney General of California, as vice president, as part of 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:15.360 the Biden administration. I think the harder one is to 0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:17.760 distinguish her from President Bia. But she certainly lays out 0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:20.680 a very different vision for the United States than former 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:21.680 President Trump does. 0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:24.560 If you look around the world today, it is on fire. 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:29.720 You have two live conflicts on which it feels like 0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:33.680 these two candidates would have very different approaches. If you're 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:35.720 sitting in the rest of the world, what should you 0:16:35.880 --> 0:16:40.000 expect from a Trump administration or a Harris administration when 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:44.280 it comes specifically to Ukraine and the Middle East. 0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:46.200 Well, I think the greatest difference is likely to be 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:50.280 on Russia and Ukraine, where former President Trump has said 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:52.680 he would end the war in twenty four hours. He 0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:54.560 hasn't said how he would do that, but most people 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:59.480 interpret that as him signaling to the Ukrainians that support 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:01.840 is is coming to an end and that they should 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:05.360 come to the negotiating table and negotiate the best deal 0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:11.440 they can with President Putin, Whereas the Biden Harris administration, 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:13.760 I imagine Vice President Harris, if she would be elected, 0:17:14.040 --> 0:17:17.680 would continue the policy of trying to provide very strong 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:21.960 support for the Ukrainians, working very closely with NATO and 0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:25.920 other allies to support Ukraine's effort, and ultimately getting to 0:17:25.960 --> 0:17:29.359 a position where Ukraine can negotiate with the Russians, but 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:32.600 hopefully from a position of strength, where they have something 0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:35.560 to trade, where they have a better situation on the ground. 0:17:36.040 --> 0:17:38.440 And so I think there there's likely to be quite 0:17:38.480 --> 0:17:42.320 a significant difference. And if you're sitting across the pond, 0:17:42.359 --> 0:17:44.320 you're a member of NATO, I think you worry quite 0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:46.720 a bit about what the differences between former President Trump 0:17:46.800 --> 0:17:52.280 and the Vice President Harris, because the commitment to the Alliance, 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:54.600 the willingness to work with allies and partners, is I 0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:58.040 think one of their fundamental differences overall. When it comes 0:17:58.040 --> 0:17:59.560 to the Middle East. I think it may be more 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:03.560 a matter of emphasis than substance. Both candidates are strongly 0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:08.119 in support of Israel's security and wants to support Israel 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:13.040 in achieving that security both wanted this conflict in Gaza 0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:16.320 to be over as quickly as possible. Former President Trump 0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:19.120 hasn't laid out how we go about doing that differently 0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:23.160 than President Biden, but certainly this administration has been pushing 0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:26.040 hard to try and reach a ceasefire, has laid out 0:18:26.080 --> 0:18:28.440 a plan to do so. I think the matter of 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:31.840 emphasis is that if there are some small indications that 0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:35.240 she has been more willing to say out loud what 0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:38.679 we know the Biden administration has said privately to the Israelis, 0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:41.800 which is that they've got to do more and better 0:18:41.920 --> 0:18:45.840 to avoid civilian casualties in Gaza, They've got to do 0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:49.320 more and better to provide humanitarian aid to the terrible 0:18:49.400 --> 0:18:53.119 situation facing the Palestinians, and that there needs to be 0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:57.399 a pathway towards the Palestinian self determination and state of 0:18:57.440 --> 0:18:59.840 it at some point. That has been the part of 0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:02.520 the Biden plan. She has said it a bit more 0:19:03.160 --> 0:19:06.920 outwardly than the than the Biden administration has, But there again, 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:09.359 I think it's more a matter of emphasis than anything else. 0:19:09.880 --> 0:19:13.600 Again, this issue of her the vagueness and the vibes. 0:19:14.040 --> 0:19:18.240 Has she said anything specific or detailed about her policy 0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:22.040 towards China, which seems to be quite an important issue. 0:19:22.400 --> 0:19:24.480 If you're asking, as you said, anything in the last 0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:28.520 six weeks since she was elevated as the Democratic candidate, 0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:31.080 I don't think she has said anything more than what 0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:33.000 she has said for the last three and a half years, 0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:35.199 which has been very much part of the Biden administration, 0:19:35.800 --> 0:19:40.200 focused on investing domestically to build out industrial capacity and 0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:45.520 competitiveness and absolutely critical technologies, standing firm against China in 0:19:45.640 --> 0:19:49.760 terms of unfair trade practices, including using tariffs and other 0:19:49.840 --> 0:19:54.280 tools to keep out Chinese imports in critical sectors, and 0:19:54.440 --> 0:19:58.159 more broadly beyond economics, standing firm, whether it's on the 0:19:58.280 --> 0:20:01.840 self China see or on enhancing the terrens around Taiwan. 0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:05.119 She's been very much part of the Biden administration approach 0:20:05.160 --> 0:20:07.960 to that. She's gone to Asia four times, I'm correct, 0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:11.840 that she's met with leaders across the region. She's represented 0:20:11.960 --> 0:20:14.840 President Biden in various regional forums out there. So she 0:20:14.960 --> 0:20:19.200 has been engaged on the China issue directly as well 0:20:19.200 --> 0:20:21.000 as part of the broader policy process. 0:20:21.320 --> 0:20:24.440 So we're saying that she's a continuity candidate, but she's 0:20:24.480 --> 0:20:26.760 a continuity candidate in the world in which has been 0:20:26.800 --> 0:20:32.080 a big rupture in policy towards China in the post 0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:34.960 Trump years. So this is very different from the old 0:20:35.000 --> 0:20:36.040 free trading world. 0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:43.120 Well, I think that the day of big multilateral free 0:20:43.160 --> 0:20:46.680 trade agreements are is probably somewhat in the past, or 0:20:46.840 --> 0:20:49.320 it's not in the near future, that's for sure. 0:20:49.440 --> 0:20:52.720 Says a former negotiator trade agreements. 0:20:53.119 --> 0:20:56.320 Such agreements, And I think part of that is a 0:20:56.440 --> 0:21:00.840 recognition that the rules based system proved to be not 0:21:01.320 --> 0:21:05.560 sufficient to deal with the integration of an economy as 0:21:05.720 --> 0:21:09.040 big and as important as China's is as integrated into 0:21:09.040 --> 0:21:11.879 the global economy as China says, but that basically follows 0:21:12.080 --> 0:21:15.400 a different set of rules, and we haven't figured out 0:21:15.520 --> 0:21:17.960 yet how to address the rules basis and to take 0:21:18.000 --> 0:21:18.960 that into account. 0:21:19.320 --> 0:21:21.760 Just to get a little bit will relate that to 0:21:22.400 --> 0:21:26.800 the sort of slightly more inside baseball crucial questions like 0:21:26.920 --> 0:21:31.040 who might get top jobs under either administration. But I 0:21:31.080 --> 0:21:33.680 think it goes to the Biden administration has been closely 0:21:33.760 --> 0:21:37.800 associated with Jake Sullivan and others such as I don't know, 0:21:37.960 --> 0:21:42.760 delete seeing an intellectual framework to the instincts that Donald 0:21:42.760 --> 0:21:45.840 Trump had when he came into to office. Quite a 0:21:46.160 --> 0:21:49.640 sort of new view of industrial policy, but also, as 0:21:49.680 --> 0:21:52.840 you just laid out, a new view of the global economy, 0:21:52.920 --> 0:21:54.399 which in some ways is a bit more kind of 0:21:54.520 --> 0:21:59.920 zero sum. But do you see that continuing under both 0:22:00.119 --> 0:22:02.800 for Paris administration and the Trump administration. 0:22:03.240 --> 0:22:06.080 I think this administra, the Bide administration, has laid out 0:22:06.760 --> 0:22:10.200 the beginnings of a framework for both a go broader 0:22:10.240 --> 0:22:14.320 than industrial policy, really about the role of the government 0:22:14.560 --> 0:22:18.639 in the economy, including industrial policy, but also with regard 0:22:18.720 --> 0:22:24.440 to export controls, foreign investment restrictions inward and outward, and 0:22:24.560 --> 0:22:28.720 then trade and protectionism. I think any administration coming in 0:22:29.440 --> 0:22:30.800 is going to have to deal with a lot of 0:22:30.840 --> 0:22:34.640 the unanswered questions. For example, I think the Chips Act, 0:22:34.880 --> 0:22:39.399 I think is pretty popular. It's not broadly supported by 0:22:39.520 --> 0:22:42.879 partisan but it got some support. And the question is 0:22:43.560 --> 0:22:45.399 the Chips Act is popular, and that's. 0:22:45.240 --> 0:22:49.840 About having increasing the US production of high, high quality 0:22:49.920 --> 0:22:50.840 semiconduct chips. 0:22:50.920 --> 0:22:53.120 Yet and to date, I think it's working quite well. 0:22:53.160 --> 0:22:55.720 It's crowding in a lot of private investments, so in 0:22:55.800 --> 0:22:58.840 addition to the tens of billions of dollars of public funding, 0:22:58.960 --> 0:23:02.359 it is crowding in scores of billions of dollars of 0:23:02.400 --> 0:23:06.280 private funding, So that's I think seen as a positive. 0:23:06.600 --> 0:23:10.760 The Inflation Reduction Act, which also was engaged in industrial 0:23:10.800 --> 0:23:14.760 policy with regard to electric vehicles and other clean energy technologies, 0:23:15.440 --> 0:23:18.760 that has less bipartisan support. So a question will be 0:23:19.200 --> 0:23:23.119 for any administration going forward, is industrial policy a central 0:23:23.200 --> 0:23:25.720 part of our toolbox going forward? How much are we 0:23:25.760 --> 0:23:28.920