1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:08,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 2: She certainly lays out a very different vision for the 3 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 2: United States than former President Trump does. 4 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 3: Welcome back to voter Nomics, where politics and markets collide. 5 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 3: This year, voters around the world have the ability to 6 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 3: affect markets, countries, and economies like never before, so we 7 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:36,239 Speaker 3: created this series to help you make sense of it all. 8 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 3: I'm Stephanie Flanders and I'm a Woodridge and our co 9 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 3: host Alegra Stratton is not quite back in the saddles. 10 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:45,240 Speaker 3: She'll be back next week. Adrian, we are. It feels 11 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 3: like the beginning of term. We're back together again, and 12 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:49,920 Speaker 3: just a few things have happened in the last month 13 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 3: or so. 14 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 4: Absolutely, it is indeed the beginning of term. An extraordinary 15 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 4: number of things have happened. I think, in particular, the 16 00:00:57,440 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 4: American election has been turned on its head. When we left, 17 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 4: it looked as though Donald Trump was almost as certain 18 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:06,479 Speaker 4: did to get into the White House. Now it looks 19 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 4: as though he's the outside candidate. So extraordinary change, yes, 20 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 4: and well we'll see. 21 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:12,760 Speaker 3: I mean, he would probably not accept that he's an 22 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 3: outside candidate, and even our own swing state poles suggest 23 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 3: it's still very much in the balance, But you're right, 24 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 3: everything has changed. I mean, what we're going to focus 25 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:25,400 Speaker 3: on today is the foreign policy side of the election, 26 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 3: and we're going to be talking to a former senior 27 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 3: official in both the Obama and Clinton administrations. So you 28 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:34,479 Speaker 3: just heard there, Mike Frohman, now head of the Council 29 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:39,760 Speaker 3: of Foreign Relations. I was struck Adrian in Chicago watching Kamala 30 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 3: Harris's acceptance speech. There was probably more on foreign policy 31 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 3: in her speech than any other one at the convention, 32 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 3: but that wasn't a high bar. No one was talking 33 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 3: about it very much. What is amazing is and a 34 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 3: function of how quickly this campaign has changed, is a 35 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 3: few lines on foreign policy in that convey and speech 36 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 3: is probably going to be all that we get from 37 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:08,239 Speaker 3: her on foreign policy before next week's debate with Donald 38 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 3: Trump on September tenth. 39 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 4: In one sense, it's an incredibly frustrating thing because the 40 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 4: world is on fire and we're not hearing about these 41 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 4: massively important issues. But on the other hand, America is 42 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 4: a big country. It's an inwood looking country, and elections 43 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 4: do not tend to turn on foreign policy. Foreign policy 44 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 4: is an issue for wants, it's an issue for eccentrics, 45 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 4: but it's not the issue that people vote on. People 46 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 4: vote on pocket book issues. So she is doing the 47 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 4: sensible thing in many ways. So we know a great 48 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 4: deal about her cooking abilities, and we know almost nothing 49 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 4: about what she thinks about NATO except that she's broadly 50 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 4: in favor of it. 51 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 3: I should say, although we've all supposedly been on holiday, 52 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 3: I can't help noticing that you have still written quite 53 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 3: a few columns since we last spoke, particularly relating to 54 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 3: Kastarmer's first few weeks as Prime Minister in this new 55 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 3: Labor government. And one thing that has been a theme 56 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 3: has been housing. And all these elections that we've covered 57 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 3: on this podcast for you know, through this year and 58 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 3: now looking to the US election, the cost of housing 59 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:15,080 Speaker 3: housing supply has just emerged as this major issue in 60 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 3: almost every election we look at, and sort of related 61 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:22,919 Speaker 3: to that, as politicians grasp for ways to increase housing supply. 62 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:26,960 Speaker 3: There's been this kind of war declared on Nimbi's and 63 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 3: both you know, Carla Harris and many Democrats in the 64 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:34,360 Speaker 3: Convention we're talking about raising housing supply. Also here in 65 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 3: the UK, a war on Nimbi's being waged by labor 66 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 3: and you have some reservations about it. You had a 67 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 3: brilliant sort of tipbit in your which I hadn't noticed 68 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 3: in your discussion around the nimbi's in your in your 69 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 3: column way, so that although he said polent suggests that 70 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 3: people are far less opposed to new housing developments if 71 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 3: they're esthetically pleasing. Yet Angela Rayner last scene I should 72 00:03:55,840 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 3: mention quite recently raving in Abitha, the Deputy Prime Minister 73 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 3: and Secretary of State for Housing, has imperiously removed the 74 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 3: requirement that new buildings should be beautiful on the grounds 75 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 3: that beautiful means nothing. Really. That does seem quite controversial. 76 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 4: If you have a party that had, you know, was 77 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 4: inspired by John Ruskin and William Morrison, people who thought 78 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 4: that beauty should be democratized, that there was no reason 79 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 4: why ordinary people shouldn't have access to beauty. It seems 80 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 4: a pretty terrible thing to say, but she certainly redeemed 81 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 4: herself by her raving this weekend. 82 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 3: We've gone from being fed up for experts with you know, 83 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 3: not caring about beauty. I don't know, I don't know 84 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:38,799 Speaker 3: which is best. But we are thinking about foreign policy 85 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 3: and we also we're supposed to on this podcast be 86 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 3: recording any number of elections happening this year, and there 87 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 3: has been breaking news from Germany this weekend. Two state 88 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 3: elections that we the world probably wouldn't usually pay attention to, 89 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:57,360 Speaker 3: in Thringia and Saxony, but they have both shaken up 90 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 3: Germany's establishment parties and the results have potentially also held 91 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:09,120 Speaker 3: some pretty significant warnings for Olave Schultz's federal elections next year. 92 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,600 Speaker 3: So let's get to our quick on the ground conversation 93 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 3: with our senior editor in Berlin, Alan Crawford. Alan, thanks 94 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 3: very much for joining us. 95 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: Hello, thank you Stephanie. 96 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 3: For those who haven't paid attention to the details, but 97 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 3: perhaps don't want to hear all the details, could you 98 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 3: just remind us why these two state elections were more significant, 99 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:38,159 Speaker 3: perhaps than usual, certainly for the rest of the world. 100 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: What grabbed the headlines was the fact that the far 101 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 1: rate has won a stateu action for the first time 102 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: since the Nazis in the Second World War, and that 103 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 1: foil shocking is not all that surprising because the polls 104 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 1: have been indicating this was the case, this would be 105 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 1: the case for a long time. Also, this the far 106 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:05,840 Speaker 1: right party the alternative for Germany that a SDA to 107 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:10,719 Speaker 1: use the German acronym is it's anti immigration, it's largely 108 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:14,840 Speaker 1: pro putine, and it really seems to have tapped into 109 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: a vein, particularly in the east of Germany. So it 110 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:21,839 Speaker 1: placed first in the state of Turin, which is actually 111 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 1: a beautiful state, picture postcardtowns, and in Saxony, which is 112 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 1: the center of the semiconductor industry, so you know there's 113 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 1: a significance there in economic terms. 114 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 3: Potentially, you've just described two very different states in terms 115 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 3: of where we can't put this all down to economic discontent. 116 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 3: We often talk about foreign policy not determining elections, but 117 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 3: foreign policy and specifically support for Ukraine has figured very 118 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:50,720 Speaker 3: prominently in both very much. 119 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 1: So there's an open goal, if you like, in attacking 120 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 1: the coalition the federal government in Berlin. It's a three 121 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 1: way coalition that deeply unpopular. It's led by the Social Democrats. 122 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: Olaf Schultz is the chancellor, with the Greens party and 123 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 1: also with the Free Democrats kind of liberal pro business party, 124 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 1: and they all perform disaster disastrously in these state elections. 125 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 1: But yes, they're flailing. As governments across Europe are over 126 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 1: the issue of immigration and Germany, despite its slow start, 127 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 1: it was also it's now also the largest contributor apart 128 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: from the US, of military aid to Ukraine, and both 129 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:37,239 Speaker 1: those policies, in terms of open immigration policy and helping 130 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:41,120 Speaker 1: Ukraine are deeply unpopular in sections of society. 131 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 4: How does the pro puting side of this fit in? 132 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 4: How can we explain that? 133 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: Well, it's actually not all that difficult to explain. Both 134 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 1: those states are in the eastern part of Germany. Poles 135 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 1: consistently show that Germans as a whole are in favor 136 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 1: of helping Ukraine a slim majority, but a large number 137 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 1: of this majority are in the east. Of this minority rather, 138 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 1: who are against helping u train are in the East, 139 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 1: And yeah, there's something of a dichotomy there for obvious 140 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: reasons that you know, it was the Soviet dominated part 141 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 1: of the country, but they're nevertheless, is also an allied 142 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: distrust of NATO, distrust of the US, and frankly, many 143 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 1: people I've spoken to people who feel very uncomfortable with 144 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 1: the idea of supplying weapons into a war, which overturned 145 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 1: a longstanding German policy, and they feel that that's fueling 146 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: the conflict rather than resolving it. 147 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:44,839 Speaker 4: But I would have thought if you'd lived under the 148 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:49,439 Speaker 4: hail of Soviet dictatorship, you'd be pretty wary of booting. 149 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 1: Yes, but that's very much a Western perception of how 150 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:56,200 Speaker 1: people in the East think, and and that gets to 151 00:08:56,240 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 1: the nub of this protest that they don't feel represented 152 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 1: by the establishment parties. That Another one of the headlines 153 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:09,840 Speaker 1: from yesterday's results was the fact that a party called 154 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 1: the bs W it's named after a woman, Zarawagenconnecht, who 155 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 1: is a former communist. That party placed third. It came 156 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 1: from nowhere, it was only formed earlier this year, and 157 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: it comes with a broadly left up sitting well, you know, 158 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:29,479 Speaker 1: pretty left wing economic stance, but it's also anti immigration 159 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 1: and anti help for Ukraine. It did incredibly well and 160 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 1: could well be in the state governments. So that's an 161 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 1: indication of really the kind of the way that politics 162 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 1: is being turned on its head, particularly in the East. 163 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:46,840 Speaker 3: I mean, just on that point we tend to focus 164 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 3: and of course the sort of the world is very 165 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 3: sort of transfixed with the alternative at Deutschland and you know, 166 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 3: obviously with the echoes of the of the Nazi past, 167 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 3: but we shouldn't forget that. One of the striking things 168 00:09:57,360 --> 00:09:59,679 Speaker 3: about these two elections was the strength of the new 169 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 3: b W alliance of the far left, and they're going 170 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 3: to play a kind of key role in, if you like, 171 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:09,679 Speaker 3: keeping the AfD out of power in these coalitions in 172 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 3: the states. So tell us a bit about them. 173 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 1: They almost certainly will do, because of course, coalition building 174 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 1: is extremely difficult when you have a party that scores 175 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 1: something like thirty percent and above of the vote but 176 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:24,679 Speaker 1: is excluded by the very nature of the fact that 177 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 1: the other parties refused to form a coalition. Yeah, the 178 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:35,439 Speaker 1: BSW Zara wagenconnect is. I mean, she's essentially a populist 179 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 1: politician who she is constantly on television chat shows. Nothing 180 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:44,319 Speaker 1: wrong with that, of course, but she was found to 181 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:47,760 Speaker 1: have took part in very few votes in the Bundestag 182 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 1: over the last session. She has really been very politically astute. 183 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 1: It's very easy to categorize voters, you know, when they 184 00:10:57,240 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 1: vote like this. But she saw that there was an 185 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: opening for a party that was conservative in social positions 186 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 1: but not necessarily economically. And I think that she's opened 187 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 1: up the way both into government in these states but 188 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 1: also potentially federally at the next election, which is too 189 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 1: a year from now, September twenty twenty five. 190 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 3: So often the more extremist parties have tended to be 191 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 3: on the right and not also on the left in 192 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 3: response to recent economic and immigration trends. It's very interesting 193 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:34,439 Speaker 3: that we are actually seeing that in Germany. But the 194 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 3: immediate just quickly, Alan is sort of the immediate follow 195 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 3: up to this for Ola Schulz, does it change the 196 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 3: way that he's trying to shore up his coalition going forward. 197 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:47,199 Speaker 1: Not really no, because he I mean, apart from the 198 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:52,680 Speaker 1: fact he's bullheaded and stubborn. Then there's a third state 199 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 1: election in the east in Brandenburg, which surrounds Berlin later 200 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 1: on this month. The SPD, his party, is not looking 201 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:02,959 Speaker 1: so bad in that election. The AfD will do well, 202 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:06,319 Speaker 1: the BSW will do well, but SBD is not down 203 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 1: and out there. And also, as I said, the a 204 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 1: FD is not going to enter government in any of 205 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:15,599 Speaker 1: these states. So it's a lot of noise. But I 206 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 1: think it's important to also look that the center right, 207 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 1: the former party of mercle, the Christian Democrats, it kind 208 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:27,199 Speaker 1: of held pretty steady. They will probably form the government, 209 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 1: the majority party in the States and Poles continually show 210 00:12:31,880 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: that they're on course to win the next federal election. 211 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:36,200 Speaker 1: So this is not France. 212 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:39,959 Speaker 3: I'm Crawford, thank you, thank you so much. He's reminded 213 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 3: us that one of the things that has not changed 214 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:43,959 Speaker 3: since we last spoke is that there's still now French 215 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 3: government formally speaking, or at least now new government after 216 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 3: the legislative election. But maybe in the next few weeks 217 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 3: we'll be able to talk about a new French government. 218 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 3: Let's get to that conversation that Adrian and I had 219 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,599 Speaker 3: just a few moments ago with an extremely distinguished practitioner 220 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 3: and thinker on foreign policy, Mike Frohman, now president of 221 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 3: the American think tank the Council on Foreign Relations, but 222 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:17,960 Speaker 3: previously a senior official for both President Clinton and President Obama. 223 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 3: He ended up as US Trade Representative for President Obama 224 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 3: in his second administration. And I started by asking him 225 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 3: whether we should care that Kamala Harris seems to have 226 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 3: been talking about foreign policy as little as possible. 227 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 2: I don't think that's terribly surprising. I mean, first of all, 228 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 2: elections rarely turn on foreign policy concerns. This election, foreign 229 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:44,839 Speaker 2: policy may play more of a role than traditionally. But 230 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 2: I think to the degree that she needs to distinguish 231 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:52,959 Speaker 2: herself from both Trump and from Biden, she's seeking to 232 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:55,960 Speaker 2: do so, really in the area of economics and really 233 00:13:56,000 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 2: in the area of domestic economic policy. Her plan to 234 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 2: reduce inflation, price controls, et cetera, with certainly a stab 235 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 2: at saying that she recognizes how important inflation is to 236 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 2: the American public and she wants to take action against it. 237 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 3: And in general, there is where she's not talking about 238 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 3: we should just sort of assume that she's going to 239 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 3: be the same as Biden. Is that the general message? 240 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 2: I mean, we don't know yet. I mean, I think 241 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 2: she has at least indicated she is willing to go 242 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:26,760 Speaker 2: further in certain areas, for example this price control and 243 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:31,120 Speaker 2: gouging price gouging area in foreign policy. Again, we haven't 244 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 2: seen a lot of science that she's going to be 245 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 2: a different place, some different emphasis, including perhaps on the 246 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 2: Palestinian issue. But she has been part of the Biden administration. 247 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 2: She is sent in innumerable situation room meetings with the 248 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 2: President and the senior team working through these issues. Over 249 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 2: the last four years, she's traveled on behalf of the 250 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 2: administration several times to every continents, virtually every continent. She's 251 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 2: met one hundred and fifty four meters. So she has 252 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 2: been part of the Biden administration's foreign policy team for 253 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 2: the last three and a half years, and you would 254 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 2: expect there'd be a fair degree of continuity at least 255 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 2: some perspective. 256 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 4: But if I'm a sort of undecided voter, if such 257 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 4: a thing exists in the United States at the moment, 258 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 4: it's very difficult for me to think of data points 259 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 4: on which to make up my mind between her and Trump. 260 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 4: In she's a bit of a blank slate. I mean, 261 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 4: she's not quite Biden. I'm not voting. If I was 262 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 4: voting for Biden, I'd be voting for somebody with an 263 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 4: enormous amount of experience and with great clarity about what 264 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 4: his foreign policy is. With her, I'm voting for somebody 265 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 4: who's been in charge of the border, well that was 266 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 4: a bit of a disaster. Who's come down on this 267 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:43,600 Speaker 4: side or that side of issues such as the Palestinian issue. 268 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 4: Who's deliberately dealing in a world of vagueness and vibes 269 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 4: at a time when the world is enormously dangerous. 270 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 2: I'm a bit worried it sounds like you as the 271 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 2: undecided but highly policy oriented voter who may be a 272 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 2: rare breed. There's certainly thousands of data points to distinguish 273 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 2: her from former President Trump. I mean, she is and 274 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 2: she has a long record, whether it's a senator, as 275 00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:12,680 Speaker 2: Attorney General of California, as vice president, as part of 276 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 2: the Biden administration. I think the harder one is to 277 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 2: distinguish her from President Bia. But she certainly lays out 278 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 2: a very different vision for the United States than former 279 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 2: President Trump does. 280 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 3: If you look around the world today, it is on fire. 281 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 3: You have two live conflicts on which it feels like 282 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 3: these two candidates would have very different approaches. If you're 283 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 3: sitting in the rest of the world, what should you 284 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 3: expect from a Trump administration or a Harris administration when 285 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 3: it comes specifically to Ukraine and the Middle East. 286 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 2: Well, I think the greatest difference is likely to be 287 00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 2: on Russia and Ukraine, where former President Trump has said 288 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 2: he would end the war in twenty four hours. He 289 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:54,560 Speaker 2: hasn't said how he would do that, but most people 290 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 2: interpret that as him signaling to the Ukrainians that support 291 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 2: is is coming to an end and that they should 292 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,360 Speaker 2: come to the negotiating table and negotiate the best deal 293 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:11,440 Speaker 2: they can with President Putin, Whereas the Biden Harris administration, 294 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:13,760 Speaker 2: I imagine Vice President Harris, if she would be elected, 295 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:17,680 Speaker 2: would continue the policy of trying to provide very strong 296 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 2: support for the Ukrainians, working very closely with NATO and 297 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 2: other allies to support Ukraine's effort, and ultimately getting to 298 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 2: a position where Ukraine can negotiate with the Russians, but 299 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 2: hopefully from a position of strength, where they have something 300 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 2: to trade, where they have a better situation on the ground. 301 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 2: And so I think there there's likely to be quite 302 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 2: a significant difference. And if you're sitting across the pond, 303 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 2: you're a member of NATO, I think you worry quite 304 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 2: a bit about what the differences between former President Trump 305 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 2: and the Vice President Harris, because the commitment to the Alliance, 306 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 2: the willingness to work with allies and partners, is I 307 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 2: think one of their fundamental differences overall. When it comes 308 00:17:58,040 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 2: to the Middle East. I think it may be more 309 00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 2: a matter of emphasis than substance. Both candidates are strongly 310 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 2: in support of Israel's security and wants to support Israel 311 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 2: in achieving that security both wanted this conflict in Gaza 312 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 2: to be over as quickly as possible. Former President Trump 313 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:19,120 Speaker 2: hasn't laid out how we go about doing that differently 314 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:23,160 Speaker 2: than President Biden, but certainly this administration has been pushing 315 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 2: hard to try and reach a ceasefire, has laid out 316 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:28,440 Speaker 2: a plan to do so. I think the matter of 317 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 2: emphasis is that if there are some small indications that 318 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 2: she has been more willing to say out loud what 319 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:38,679 Speaker 2: we know the Biden administration has said privately to the Israelis, 320 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 2: which is that they've got to do more and better 321 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 2: to avoid civilian casualties in Gaza, They've got to do 322 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 2: more and better to provide humanitarian aid to the terrible 323 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:53,119 Speaker 2: situation facing the Palestinians, and that there needs to be 324 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:57,399 Speaker 2: a pathway towards the Palestinian self determination and state of 325 00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 2: it at some point. That has been the part of 326 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 2: the Biden plan. She has said it a bit more 327 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:06,920 Speaker 2: outwardly than the than the Biden administration has, But there again, 328 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 2: I think it's more a matter of emphasis than anything else. 329 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 4: Again, this issue of her the vagueness and the vibes. 330 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 4: Has she said anything specific or detailed about her policy 331 00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 4: towards China, which seems to be quite an important issue. 332 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 2: If you're asking, as you said, anything in the last 333 00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 2: six weeks since she was elevated as the Democratic candidate, 334 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 2: I don't think she has said anything more than what 335 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 2: she has said for the last three and a half years, 336 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,199 Speaker 2: which has been very much part of the Biden administration, 337 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:40,200 Speaker 2: focused on investing domestically to build out industrial capacity and 338 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 2: competitiveness and absolutely critical technologies, standing firm against China in 339 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 2: terms of unfair trade practices, including using tariffs and other 340 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 2: tools to keep out Chinese imports in critical sectors, and 341 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:58,159 Speaker 2: more broadly beyond economics, standing firm, whether it's on the 342 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:01,840 Speaker 2: self China see or on enhancing the terrens around Taiwan. 343 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 2: She's been very much part of the Biden administration approach 344 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 2: to that. She's gone to Asia four times, I'm correct, 345 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 2: that she's met with leaders across the region. She's represented 346 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,840 Speaker 2: President Biden in various regional forums out there. So she 347 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:19,200 Speaker 2: has been engaged on the China issue directly as well 348 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 2: as part of the broader policy process. 349 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,440 Speaker 4: So we're saying that she's a continuity candidate, but she's 350 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 4: a continuity candidate in the world in which has been 351 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 4: a big rupture in policy towards China in the post 352 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 4: Trump years. So this is very different from the old 353 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:36,040 Speaker 4: free trading world. 354 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:43,120 Speaker 2: Well, I think that the day of big multilateral free 355 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:46,680 Speaker 2: trade agreements are is probably somewhat in the past, or 356 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 2: it's not in the near future, that's for sure. 357 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 3: Says a former negotiator trade agreements. 358 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 2: Such agreements, And I think part of that is a 359 00:20:56,440 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 2: recognition that the rules based system proved to be not 360 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 2: sufficient to deal with the integration of an economy as 361 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 2: big and as important as China's is as integrated into 362 00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,879 Speaker 2: the global economy as China says, but that basically follows 363 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,400 Speaker 2: a different set of rules, and we haven't figured out 364 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 2: yet how to address the rules basis and to take 365 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 2: that into account. 366 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 3: Just to get a little bit will relate that to 367 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 3: the sort of slightly more inside baseball crucial questions like 368 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 3: who might get top jobs under either administration. But I 369 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:33,680 Speaker 3: think it goes to the Biden administration has been closely 370 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:37,800 Speaker 3: associated with Jake Sullivan and others such as I don't know, 371 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 3: delete seeing an intellectual framework to the instincts that Donald 372 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 3: Trump had when he came into to office. Quite a 373 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:49,640 Speaker 3: sort of new view of industrial policy, but also, as 374 00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 3: you just laid out, a new view of the global economy, 375 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:54,399 Speaker 3: which in some ways is a bit more kind of 376 00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:59,920 Speaker 3: zero sum. But do you see that continuing under both 377 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 3: for Paris administration and the Trump administration. 378 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 2: I think this administra, the Bide administration, has laid out 379 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:10,200 Speaker 2: the beginnings of a framework for both a go broader 380 00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 2: than industrial policy, really about the role of the government 381 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:18,639 Speaker 2: in the economy, including industrial policy, but also with regard 382 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:24,440 Speaker 2: to export controls, foreign investment restrictions inward and outward, and 383 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 2: then trade and protectionism. I think any administration coming in 384 00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 2: is going to have to deal with a lot of 385 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:34,640 Speaker 2: the unanswered questions. For example, I think the Chips Act, 386 00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 2: I think is pretty popular. It's not broadly supported by 387 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,879 Speaker 2: partisan but it got some support. And the question is 388 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:45,399 Speaker 2: the Chips Act is popular, and that's. 389 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 3: About having increasing the US production of high, high quality 390 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 3: semiconduct chips. 391 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,120 Speaker 2: Yet and to date, I think it's working quite well. 392 00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:55,720 Speaker 2: It's crowding in a lot of private investments, so in 393 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:58,840 Speaker 2: addition to the tens of billions of dollars of public funding, 394 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 2: it is crowding in scores of billions of dollars of 395 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:06,280 Speaker 2: private funding, So that's I think seen as a positive. 396 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 2: The Inflation Reduction Act, which also was engaged in industrial 397 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 2: policy with regard to electric vehicles and other clean energy technologies, 398 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,760 Speaker 2: that has less bipartisan support. So a question will be 399 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:23,119 Speaker 2: for any administration going forward, is industrial policy a central 400 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 2: part of our toolbox going forward? How much are we 401 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,920 Speaker 2: willing to spend on it at what cost? Of course, 402 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 2: to state the obvious, every dollar spent on industrial policy 403 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 2: is a dollar not spent on defense, on social programs, 404 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,920 Speaker 2: or it's another dollar going to the deficit and the debt, 405 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 2: which may consider it to be an unsustainable trajectory. So 406 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,280 Speaker 2: they're going to have to make these kinds of trade offs. 407 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 2: Same thing with the other tools. Protectionism is the most 408 00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:54,640 Speaker 2: obvious one. We hate our dependence on China. We also 409 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,719 Speaker 2: hate inflation and rising cost of living, and the actions 410 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:01,120 Speaker 2: we take to reduce our dependence on China, whether it's 411 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:05,720 Speaker 2: retoring or putting tariffs on, it's going to exacerbate inflation 412 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,119 Speaker 2: and the high cost of living. That may be a 413 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:12,800 Speaker 2: perfectly legitimate trade off to make on strategic goods, it 414 00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 2: may be a less persuasive trade off to make on 415 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:20,680 Speaker 2: clothing and footwear and toys and things that low income 416 00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,960 Speaker 2: Americans spend a disproportionate amount of their disposable income on. 417 00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 2: And so again, I think any future administration is going 418 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 2: to have to wrestle with these questions. And the challenge 419 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 2: I think has been that the Biden administration has been 420 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 2: quite disciplined in the small yard high fans, the restrictions 421 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 2: on exports being really quite limited to the most highly 422 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,120 Speaker 2: powered semi conductor chips and a few other critical technologies. 423 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 2: Same thing on foreign investment. But now that the processes 424 00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 2: are in place or the precedent has been set, there's 425 00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:56,480 Speaker 2: always the risk that the yard gets bigger and bigger, 426 00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:00,879 Speaker 2: that the screen gets finer and finer, and it becomes 427 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:04,680 Speaker 2: more and more difficult across other areas of the economy 428 00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:06,040 Speaker 2: that may not be as strategic. 429 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:10,520 Speaker 4: And President Harris is she well connected with the European leaders. 430 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:11,840 Speaker 1: She is. 431 00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 2: I mean, first of all, she's been the lead American 432 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:18,280 Speaker 2: going just as a one example, to the Munich Security Conference. 433 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,440 Speaker 2: Over the last few years, she's led the US delegation there. 434 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:23,760 Speaker 2: She's invested in an enormous amount of time and talking 435 00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:28,600 Speaker 2: with European leaders and engaging on European issues. Her primary 436 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:34,000 Speaker 2: national security advisor, Phil Gordon, is a European expert. He's 437 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,280 Speaker 2: the least expert. He's an expert on American foreign policy generally. 438 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,640 Speaker 4: But there is lack which is good. 439 00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 2: There you go all the better, and so. 440 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:45,800 Speaker 1: There is a. 441 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 2: Certainly understanding of the European perspective. And I would just 442 00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 2: say more generally, and here I do think if Russia 443 00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:57,000 Speaker 2: Ukraine is one point of contrast between Trump and Harris, 444 00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:00,879 Speaker 2: I think another very important point of contrast is just 445 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 2: the willingness to work with allies and partners. I think 446 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,680 Speaker 2: there's a much greater commitment you've seen by the Biden 447 00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:12,240 Speaker 2: administration than the Trump administration, and I would assume that 448 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,119 Speaker 2: that would continue under the Harris administration. 449 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 3: The other thing I'm struck by internationally. We've spoken it 450 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:21,199 Speaker 3: a bit, spoken about it a bit on the podcast before, 451 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 3: is there is still even with Kamala Harris having become candidate, 452 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:30,520 Speaker 3: there's quite a divide between this very very broad sense, 453 00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,560 Speaker 3: the kind of business community or some of the sort 454 00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:37,159 Speaker 3: of biggest players in the business community and broadly speaking, 455 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,240 Speaker 3: sort of diplomats around the world when it comes to 456 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:42,320 Speaker 3: Donald Trump. You know, the business community, again broadly generalizing, 457 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 3: is surprisingly sort of sanguine, often particularly big American businesses 458 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:54,760 Speaker 3: and big investors and others, about Donald Trump and even 459 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:58,159 Speaker 3: maybe quietly wanting to see him come to office in 460 00:26:58,280 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 3: terms of what it could do we could do for 461 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:03,360 Speaker 3: the stock market and for the US economy, And equally 462 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 3: a lot of people circling the wagons, particularly in the 463 00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:11,679 Speaker 3: G seven but maybe also in other capitals, really worried 464 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,440 Speaker 3: about what it would mean to have Donald Trump back 465 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,280 Speaker 3: in office for sort of global security. Do you think 466 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 3: both sides are exaggerating. 467 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:23,359 Speaker 2: Well, I think the business community does have concerns about 468 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 2: the impact on whether it's on security or just the 469 00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:32,480 Speaker 2: relations around the world, instability in relations around the world. 470 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:36,160 Speaker 2: But they've sort of made their peace with Donald Trump 471 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:40,560 Speaker 2: when we saw this back in twenty sixteen or twenty 472 00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:43,760 Speaker 2: seventeen as well, where as long as he delivered on 473 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:49,240 Speaker 2: tax cuts and regulatory relief, they were willing to swallow 474 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:55,679 Speaker 2: policies that they didn't like, protectionist trade policies, restricted immigration policies, 475 00:27:56,480 --> 00:28:01,359 Speaker 2: and more chaos around the world. Then I think that 476 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 2: that view still holds largely true, and to be frank 477 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 2: has been a fair amount of business uh uh, disappointment 478 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,880 Speaker 2: or concern about the Biden administration, which they view as 479 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,080 Speaker 2: whether it's on anti trust, on other issues, as making 480 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:20,640 Speaker 2: life quite difficult for them. 481 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:20,960 Speaker 1: And so. 482 00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 2: I think going into this election there is a view 483 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,399 Speaker 2: by the business community, and whether it's complacent or not, 484 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:34,120 Speaker 2: one can judge that we got through it the first time. 485 00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,960 Speaker 2: He delivered on tax cuts, on regulatory relief, and that 486 00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,400 Speaker 2: goes directly to our bottom line or the way we 487 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,200 Speaker 2: do business and the rest we can manage around it. 488 00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 2: Now that may be underplane, you know, the impact of 489 00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:48,600 Speaker 2: protectionism right now. 490 00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:50,800 Speaker 3: I don't know if you, Mike, if you were in Chicago, 491 00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:52,360 Speaker 3: I don't think I saw you there, But that you know, 492 00:28:53,360 --> 00:29:00,240 Speaker 3: we've seen since the convention off swing state, Pole and 493 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:03,800 Speaker 3: a few others, not a big bounce for Kamala Harris, 494 00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:06,600 Speaker 3: but certainly she's still doing markedly better than Biden was 495 00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:10,240 Speaker 3: in many of those places. But when you talk to 496 00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:12,760 Speaker 3: a lot of the strategists, they point you to the 497 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 3: fact that the economy is still by overwhelmingly the number 498 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:19,240 Speaker 3: one issue, particularly in the swing state, and that a 499 00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:23,600 Speaker 3: majority of voters still think that they favored Trump's policies 500 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:28,200 Speaker 3: on the economy rather than Kamala Harris, and those same 501 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,080 Speaker 3: strategies will tell you the only way really that she's 502 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,400 Speaker 3: going to win is by fixing that, and that means 503 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:39,440 Speaker 3: persuading voters that actually Trump's tariffs, for example, his promise 504 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:43,600 Speaker 3: of across the board tariffs on all imports are attacks 505 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:48,320 Speaker 3: and they would raise inflation, make the economic situation worse 506 00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:51,640 Speaker 3: for people. And you've spent your life trying to persuade 507 00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:55,280 Speaker 3: people about free trade and explain just those kind of arguments. 508 00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:56,920 Speaker 3: Do you think it's a lost cause. Do you think 509 00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,920 Speaker 3: they will ever persuade people that the tariffs against China 510 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:01,960 Speaker 3: are attacks and we'll make things worse. 511 00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,440 Speaker 2: I don't think it's a lost cause, but I think 512 00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:07,480 Speaker 2: it's a case that you have to really make, and 513 00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:09,920 Speaker 2: you know there's now analysis out there. I mean, when 514 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:14,120 Speaker 2: you impose tariffs, you actually run the risk of three 515 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,200 Speaker 2: categories of costs, and there's a direct cost, which is 516 00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,280 Speaker 2: what people tend to focus on. How much more that 517 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,640 Speaker 2: Chinese good or the good coming from any other country 518 00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:25,320 Speaker 2: that has a terrify I don't remember. Former President Trump 519 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,840 Speaker 2: is announced he's going to apply ten to twenty percent 520 00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:31,400 Speaker 2: tariffs against goods coming in from all other countries outside 521 00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:35,160 Speaker 2: of China, that the direct cost at a consumer or 522 00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 2: an importer is using that input, it's part of their manufacturing, 523 00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,600 Speaker 2: has to pay for it. Then there's the cost of retaliation, 524 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:44,400 Speaker 2: which we really calculate, but when the other countries retaliate, 525 00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:48,160 Speaker 2: that's a further cost, particularly on our exporting industries, agriculture 526 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:52,640 Speaker 2: and manufacturing and hurting jobs in those areas. And then 527 00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:55,160 Speaker 2: is a third category, which is more amorphous, which is 528 00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:59,440 Speaker 2: the cost of imitation, where other countries say, well, look 529 00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:03,280 Speaker 2: if the US skin engage in this kind of policy, 530 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,960 Speaker 2: then so it can wait. We can be selective in 531 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,800 Speaker 2: our use of our commitment to free trade, we can 532 00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:12,000 Speaker 2: be selective in our use of tariffs. And that sort 533 00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,760 Speaker 2: of an open ended that's sort of an open ended envelope. 534 00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,120 Speaker 2: And so you know, I think the Peterson Institute, among others, 535 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,120 Speaker 2: has been an analysis of the direct cause just that 536 00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:24,040 Speaker 2: first category, and it's a thirty nine hundred dollars bill 537 00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:30,240 Speaker 2: to the average American family of taking the Trump proposals seriously, 538 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,120 Speaker 2: that's leaving aside the other two categories of car So. 539 00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:37,040 Speaker 4: I thought you can persuade Stephanie of that case. But 540 00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:42,520 Speaker 4: can Vice President Harris make that case. She seems to 541 00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,080 Speaker 4: be averse to talking about policy. She doesn't seem to 542 00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:48,360 Speaker 4: be very eloquent when she does talk about policy issues. 543 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:51,320 Speaker 4: She said, can she make that case? Have we seen 544 00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:53,400 Speaker 4: any sign of her beginning to make that case, because 545 00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:54,920 Speaker 4: it's actually quite a difficult case to make. 546 00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, we've seen some signs. I think there's been some 547 00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:01,520 Speaker 2: comments about the broad based tariffs that Trump wants to 548 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:05,000 Speaker 2: pose on on the whole on the whole world. I think, frankly, 549 00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:08,320 Speaker 2: she's decided that the better economic argument is to win 550 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:12,200 Speaker 2: against inflation, which people can more relate to, and they 551 00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,960 Speaker 2: don't tie tariffs to inflation in quite the same way 552 00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,600 Speaker 2: as you know, what's happening with the price of eggs 553 00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:22,280 Speaker 2: or or or something, or the price of something else 554 00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:26,280 Speaker 2: at the grocery store and so or pharmaceutical products or 555 00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 2: other areas where you can say people are price gouging. 556 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:33,600 Speaker 2: And so that's been her primary line of attack so far. 557 00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:36,440 Speaker 4: She's going for the bad economic argument role than the 558 00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:36,840 Speaker 4: good one. 559 00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:40,800 Speaker 3: Well, yeah, sometimes that. 560 00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,600 Speaker 2: After the right issue. I think the question is I 561 00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:48,160 Speaker 2: don't have a license to practice politics? Is one of 562 00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,440 Speaker 2: my former flogues used to say, so I'll leave that 563 00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,560 Speaker 2: to others, but just remember we have seventy five days. 564 00:32:54,880 --> 00:33:00,200 Speaker 2: I believe again, campaigns don't turn completely on Paula See 565 00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:03,160 Speaker 2: as much as we policy wongs would like to think 566 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:09,280 Speaker 2: that they do. I think is given how recent she 567 00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:14,520 Speaker 2: became the nominee and the front runner is the fact 568 00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:17,520 Speaker 2: they're beginning to lay out these ideas is good. But 569 00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:19,160 Speaker 2: they also just wanted to get to know her as 570 00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:22,120 Speaker 2: a person and hold that character up against the character 571 00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:25,400 Speaker 2: of the of the alternative candidate and see who they're 572 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:29,560 Speaker 2: more most comfortable with. The president here, as you know, 573 00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,880 Speaker 2: there's multiple roles not just serve policy leader in charge, 574 00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,720 Speaker 2: but is head of state and represents the country. And 575 00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:38,760 Speaker 2: I think that's a lot of what Americans think through. 576 00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:41,840 Speaker 2: Do they feel comfortable with former President Trump's leader? Do 577 00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:44,400 Speaker 2: they feel comfortable with Vice President Harris? 578 00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:44,880 Speaker 1: Is different? 579 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:46,720 Speaker 3: And thank you very much, Mike. That was great. 580 00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:47,520 Speaker 1: Thank you. 581 00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,440 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to this week's photon Nomics from Bloomberg. 582 00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 3: This episode was hosted by me, Stephanie Flanders, and Adrian Wildridge. 583 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:03,200 Speaker 3: It was produced by Summer Sadie, with production support from 584 00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:07,560 Speaker 3: Isabella Ward and sound design by Moses and dam Brendan 585 00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:11,279 Speaker 3: Francis Noonham is our executive producer, and Sage Bowman is 586 00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,640 Speaker 3: the head of Bloomberg Podcasts. With special thanks to Michael 587 00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:19,760 Speaker 3: Frohman and Alan Crawford. Please do subscribe and rate highly 588 00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:21,920 Speaker 3: our podcast wherever you get it.