WEBVTT - Why They CAN'T Let a Recession Happen (The Truth Changes Everything)

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<v Speaker 1>They literally can't let a recession happen, And I'm about

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<v Speaker 1>to show you the mathematical proof that changes everything you

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<v Speaker 1>think you know about what's coming next. You see, everybody's

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<v Speaker 1>been waiting for the crash for two years now, defensively positioned,

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<v Speaker 1>sitting in cash, missing out. But what if I told

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<v Speaker 1>you that the FED is trapped in a thirty seven

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<v Speaker 1>trillion dollar corner where allowing a recession would collapse the

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<v Speaker 1>entire system. Now, look, I've been analyzing macrocycles for two decades.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm a partner at a leading bitcoin venture fund. I

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<v Speaker 1>advise multiple public companies, and what I'm seeing in the

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<v Speaker 1>data is the biggest wealth transfer setup I've ever witnessed.

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<v Speaker 1>And by the end of this video, you'll understand exactly

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<v Speaker 1>why they must print forever and how to position yourself.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's go all right, What.

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<v Speaker 1>A time to be alive. We are living through a

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<v Speaker 1>massive evolution right now. It's something what I talk a

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<v Speaker 1>lot about because I talk about technology a lot, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's something called creative destruction, where a new way, a

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<v Speaker 1>new creation, creativity kills the old way.

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<v Speaker 2>Now what are we talking about. We're talking about the.

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<v Speaker 1>Entire global financial system, the bedrock of the system being

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<v Speaker 1>replaced and the new system that's being built on top

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<v Speaker 1>of it.

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<v Speaker 2>And we're talking about, first of all.

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<v Speaker 1>The death of the existing system. Now, the death of

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<v Speaker 1>the existing system is already happening. It's become decrepit, it's

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<v Speaker 1>become old. Nietzsche said that which is falling, shall ye

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<v Speaker 1>also push? And so the system is already fallen off

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<v Speaker 1>of an edge, and there's a new system being built

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<v Speaker 1>up on top of it.

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<v Speaker 2>Now you probably are already aware of this. I talk

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<v Speaker 2>about it on videos all the time.

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<v Speaker 1>In the United States alone, In Japan and China and

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<v Speaker 1>the ECB, they're all the same.

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<v Speaker 2>But in the US alone, the debt continues to go up.

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<v Speaker 1>At an astronomical pace. As a matter of fact, look

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<v Speaker 1>at these trend lines of the debt growing faster, faster, faster, faster.

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<v Speaker 1>Next level is going to be going straight up. We're

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<v Speaker 1>talking thirty seven trillion dollars of debt at a record

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<v Speaker 1>rate of adding a trillion dollars of debt every one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred days. Now, in the two thousands, it was every

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<v Speaker 1>couple of years to get a trillion dollars of debt.

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<v Speaker 1>In twenty ten's it was one year to get a

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<v Speaker 1>trillion dollars of debt, and today, as I said, it's

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<v Speaker 1>about a quarter. About every quarter, a new trillion dollars

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<v Speaker 1>of debt. Now, the reason why I want to bring

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<v Speaker 1>that up real quickly is because the bedrock of the

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<v Speaker 1>entire global financial system is US treasuries. But the problem

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<v Speaker 1>is that if I'm going to buy a US treasury,

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<v Speaker 1>that's debt, right, I'm going to give the government money

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<v Speaker 1>and they're going to pay me back three, four or

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<v Speaker 1>five percent interest, and then in two, five, ten, twenty

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<v Speaker 1>thirty years I get my capital back. But do I

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<v Speaker 1>want to loan somebody money who's insolvent, who has no money?

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<v Speaker 1>Do I want to loan somebody money for ten twenty

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<v Speaker 1>thirty years that they're going to pay me back, but

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<v Speaker 1>when they pay me back in thirty years, it's worth

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<v Speaker 1>way less than what I gave to him in the

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<v Speaker 1>first place.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's exactly what we have going on.

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<v Speaker 1>So as that government debt continues to explode, as they

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<v Speaker 1>continue to increase it by a trillion dollars every hundred days,

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<v Speaker 1>those holding the debt are losing money at a rapid rate.

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<v Speaker 1>Here we have the TLT, which is basically an index

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<v Speaker 1>that tracks the long term US treasuries, and what we

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<v Speaker 1>can see over the last five years that it's lost

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<v Speaker 1>forty seven percent.

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<v Speaker 2>Of its value.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you were a government or somebody that was

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<v Speaker 1>parking money, like most sixty to forty portfolios have money

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<v Speaker 1>in bonds, they've lost.

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<v Speaker 2>Fifty percent, almost fifty percent of their money in five years.

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<v Speaker 1>The bedrock of the global financial system is losing value

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<v Speaker 1>at a rapid rate fifty percent in five years. That

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<v Speaker 1>is the game that's losing, that's the game that's being destroyed.

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<v Speaker 1>But there's a new game in town. What am I

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<v Speaker 1>talking about? It's sort of like discovering fire. It's like

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<v Speaker 1>a zero to one moment. And what we're seeing is

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<v Speaker 1>that a new type of company taking a new type

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<v Speaker 1>of asset and making a refinery model out of it.

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<v Speaker 1>What am I mean by a refinery model. We're taking

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<v Speaker 1>a raw asset and we're creating new things from it.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>We're taking one asset and we're turning that asset into

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<v Speaker 1>now multiple products.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>It's sort of like financial alchemy, except where it's not alchemy.

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<v Speaker 2>It's more of like a refinery. What am I talking about?

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<v Speaker 1>We're talking about new companies sort of like what micro

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<v Speaker 1>strategies doing, I shouldn't say, sort of like they're the

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<v Speaker 1>ones that are pioneering this. Now there's dozens of companies

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<v Speaker 1>that are doing the same things that they are. And

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<v Speaker 1>what they've done is they've taken a new asset, a

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<v Speaker 1>new commodity, something new, a new piece of technology like bitcoin,

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<v Speaker 1>and use that as a base asset to now like

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<v Speaker 1>a refinery, create new products on top of it that

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<v Speaker 1>fit inside the traditional financial world. Now, specifically, they've created

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<v Speaker 1>four new outputs. They've taken one input of bitcoin and

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<v Speaker 1>created four new products, four new outputs off of that.

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<v Speaker 1>We're talking about convertible debt yielding instruments, bitcoin linked equities.

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<v Speaker 1>We're talking about new ways to get income streams off

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<v Speaker 1>of bitcoin and basically amplify the amount of bitcoin that

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<v Speaker 1>you could buy. What are we talking about here, Let

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<v Speaker 1>me show you how this is working.

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<v Speaker 2>Again.

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<v Speaker 1>If you don't understand this, you're gonna miss one of

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<v Speaker 1>the biggest shifts to the global financial system that's maybe

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<v Speaker 1>we'll ever see. Okay, here's what we're talking about. They've

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<v Speaker 1>taken something like bitcoin here, that's the input. It's like

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<v Speaker 1>no different than a refinery would take in oil and

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<v Speaker 1>then they would spit out different types of fuels. So

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<v Speaker 1>they take in bitcoin and then they output it as

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<v Speaker 1>different products that fit into different unique use cases for

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<v Speaker 1>different people. Again, like oil, we can take oil and

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<v Speaker 1>turn it into all different types of products. So we

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<v Speaker 1>have at the top, we have the micro Strategy stock,

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<v Speaker 1>all right, So that's just if I want common stock,

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<v Speaker 1>I want upside volatility on that stock.

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<v Speaker 2>But what if I don't.

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<v Speaker 1>What if I want what if I'm a I'm a

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<v Speaker 1>debt buyer, I'm a bond buyer, I want income, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we have an income product here.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, what if I want like really.

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<v Speaker 1>High yield income, like I'm a junk bond buyer, Well

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<v Speaker 1>we have that product down here. What if I want

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<v Speaker 1>more secure income that's like a US treasury where it's

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<v Speaker 1>much more secure senior preferred. Okay, then I might want

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<v Speaker 1>to hear what if I want the debt but I

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<v Speaker 1>want a little bit more upside. You see, there's different

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<v Speaker 1>flavors for all these different buyers, and they're all right here.

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<v Speaker 1>Let me kind of give you a different breakdown of

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<v Speaker 1>what this looks like. So what micro Strategy has done

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<v Speaker 1>is they've taken Bitcoin the input, and they've output four

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<v Speaker 1>new products as of right now, and each one of

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<v Speaker 1>these products is a little bit different. So the common

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<v Speaker 1>stock micro strategy is leveraged bitcoin exposure, so they get

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<v Speaker 1>that potential upside, but there's no income from that, and

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<v Speaker 1>there's also downside.

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<v Speaker 2>That comes with that.

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<v Speaker 1>We have Strike, which is paying an eight percent quarterly

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<v Speaker 1>fixed dividend, but it can convert over into the stock,

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<v Speaker 1>so I get the upside potential, So it's sort of

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<v Speaker 1>like a dividend stock. I get the eight percent dividend

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<v Speaker 1>and I get upside if the stock goes up.

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<v Speaker 2>Then we have another one here called Stride STRD.

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<v Speaker 1>This pays a ten percent quarterly fixed, non cumulative dividend,

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<v Speaker 1>so I get a higher income, but it's higher up

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<v Speaker 1>in the stack, so what's pretty secured. And then down

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<v Speaker 1>here we have this new one, Stretch. I just did

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<v Speaker 1>a video recently on this, I called it the iPhone Moment,

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<v Speaker 1>where we can link it up here or in the

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<v Speaker 1>show notes down below, And basically stretches sort of like

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<v Speaker 1>a stable coin where I don't have upside or downside volatility.

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<v Speaker 2>It always sits right around what I want, sort of

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<v Speaker 2>like a money market fund.

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<v Speaker 1>But it pays a nice healthy dividend depending on where

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<v Speaker 1>it's at, somewhere in the nine percent range.

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<v Speaker 2>You see, this is what we're talking about. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>How has this been working out so well? Well, if

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<v Speaker 1>you haven't been paying attention, maybe you've missed it. But

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<v Speaker 1>in the last five years, micro Strategy, the company that's

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<v Speaker 1>doing this refinery model, has been the best performing asset.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>Bonds are down four percent over the last five years.

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<v Speaker 1>Real estate it's up six percent, Goal's up ten percent,

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<v Speaker 1>SMP's up fourteen percent, the mags seven collectively of twenty

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<v Speaker 1>seven percent. Bitcoin is up fifty eight percent per year.

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<v Speaker 1>These are per year returns. Sorry I didn't specify that.

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<v Speaker 1>And micros is up one hundred percent in the last

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<v Speaker 1>five years. What about in the last one year, because

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Mark, maybe you're cherry picking data. Well, in

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<v Speaker 1>the last one year, we can see the outperformance of

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<v Speaker 1>micro Strategy as well. And so that this is the

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<v Speaker 1>financial refinery model that we're seeing. Like I said, dozens

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<v Speaker 1>of people are copying this now, but this is way

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<v Speaker 1>bigger than one company like MicroStrategy. What we're witnessing is

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<v Speaker 1>creative destructure. What we're witnessing is the creation of fire,

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<v Speaker 1>the zero to one moment that now everybody will start

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<v Speaker 1>to copy, start to duplicate what am I talking about. Well, currently,

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<v Speaker 1>companies like the mag seven maybe your business, you should

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<v Speaker 1>have some savings, right, you have a treasury, but this

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<v Speaker 1>is making traditional treasuries obsolete. So again, a company like

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<v Speaker 1>your company, my business should have some savings. And some

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<v Speaker 1>of the biggest companies in the world have enormous savings.

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<v Speaker 1>As a matter of fact, Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's company

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<v Speaker 1>is sitting on over three hundred and forty eight billion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars three hundred forty eight billion dollars of cash and

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<v Speaker 1>cash equivalents, treasuries things like that. Amazon ninety eight billion,

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<v Speaker 1>Google ninety five billion, Microsoft ninety five billion, sitting on

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<v Speaker 1>enormous hordes of dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>And these dollars are losing money.

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<v Speaker 1>Unlike micro strategy, their asset base is making money.

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<v Speaker 2>So what we're.

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<v Speaker 1>Seeing is a shift from using my treasury as just

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<v Speaker 1>a way to store money that's losing value, to instead

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<v Speaker 1>turn my treasury in a way to turbocharge my returns.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what we're starting to see, and this is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be the big shift that we're about to see

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<v Speaker 1>where we start to see treasuries go from reserves to

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<v Speaker 1>refineries instead of just holding losing value. How do we

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<v Speaker 1>turn that into a refinery that allows different people to

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<v Speaker 1>get them at different products. Now, how big is a

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<v Speaker 1>market like this, Well, we can see that right now.

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<v Speaker 1>The universe for these would be US treasuries. Right, so

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<v Speaker 1>people buy US treasuries to store wealth and get a return.

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<v Speaker 1>We have about twenty eight trillion dollars sitting there. We

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<v Speaker 1>have mortgage backed security, so people buy into those commercial

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<v Speaker 1>real estate mortgage backed securities or residential there's about almost

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<v Speaker 1>ten trillion sitting there. We have bonds about five trillions

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<v Speaker 1>in their junk bonds higher yielding a little bit more risk,

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<v Speaker 1>two point six jillions in there. Dividend paying stocks, forty

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<v Speaker 1>eight trillion dollars in dividend pain stocks. Again, people are

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<v Speaker 1>buying the stock for a dividend, hoping for some potential upside.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're talking about hundreds of trillions of dollars sitting

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<v Speaker 1>here in demand for these types of products. And over

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<v Speaker 1>here we have strike, strife, stride, and stretch, the four

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<v Speaker 1>products that micro strategy has created.

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<v Speaker 2>The refinery that are just tiny little blips. Right now,

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<v Speaker 2>we're talking billions of dollars that are out competing.

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<v Speaker 1>They all pay higher yield at a higher collateral ratio,

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<v Speaker 1>so they're safer and they pay out more, which means

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<v Speaker 1>they're out competing, which means the new creation. It's the

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<v Speaker 1>digital camera to Kodaks film camera. This is what's going

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<v Speaker 1>on right now. And again Strategy is pioneering this. But

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<v Speaker 1>all of those companies I showed you have enormous treasuries

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<v Speaker 1>that they can start to turn into refineries instead of

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<v Speaker 1>just treasures losing money. Again, why because right now they're

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<v Speaker 1>parking them into the US treasuries which have lost fifty

0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:22.920
<v Speaker 1>percent in five years.

0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:24.880
<v Speaker 2>And again, why is that real? Quick?

0:11:25.080 --> 0:11:28.400
<v Speaker 1>It's because the amount of money being added to the

0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:32.920
<v Speaker 1>system is about ten percent per year, which means that

0:11:33.040 --> 0:11:35.760
<v Speaker 1>you need to be making at least ten percent a

0:11:35.840 --> 0:11:38.120
<v Speaker 1>year if you hope to keep up on it.

0:11:38.240 --> 0:11:40.160
<v Speaker 2>And again, where are you going to put that money

0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:40.600
<v Speaker 2>to do that?

0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:42.960
<v Speaker 1>So if I'm one of these companies, if I'm a

0:11:42.960 --> 0:11:45.439
<v Speaker 1>business owner and I have money in my treasury.

0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:45.840
<v Speaker 2>Where do I put it?

0:11:46.240 --> 0:11:47.960
<v Speaker 1>Well, I know that I need to make at least

0:11:48.000 --> 0:11:50.280
<v Speaker 1>ten percent a year. Here's a list of all the

0:11:50.320 --> 0:11:54.080
<v Speaker 1>assets that we have from twenty fifteen to twenty twenty four,

0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:56.520
<v Speaker 1>so for the last ten years, this is the performance

0:11:56.559 --> 0:11:59.000
<v Speaker 1>of all the major asset classes. Now, what we can

0:11:59.040 --> 0:12:02.640
<v Speaker 1>see is that bitcoin has done an average an annual

0:12:03.520 --> 0:12:07.839
<v Speaker 1>compound and annual growth rate of eighty percent. The Nasdaq

0:12:07.920 --> 0:12:10.720
<v Speaker 1>has done seventeen percent, so that's well above the ten

0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:11.760
<v Speaker 1>percent that we're losing.

0:12:11.840 --> 0:12:12.360
<v Speaker 2>Pretty good.

0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:15.120
<v Speaker 1>The S and P five hundred has done thirteen point

0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:17.320
<v Speaker 1>nine call it fourteen percent, so a little bit better

0:12:17.360 --> 0:12:19.959
<v Speaker 1>than the ten percent that we're losing. But everything else

0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:25.840
<v Speaker 1>we've lost money in gold nine percent, rates nine point

0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:29.040
<v Speaker 1>four percent. We can keep going down to commodities zero

0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:32.080
<v Speaker 1>point six percent, bonds two point three percent, high yield

0:12:32.120 --> 0:12:34.640
<v Speaker 1>credit six point four percent, but all.

0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:36.280
<v Speaker 2>Losing money to the ten percent.

0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:39.320
<v Speaker 1>So all of these companies from Berkshire Hathaway to Apple

0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:41.679
<v Speaker 1>to Google to Test Letter, sitting on one hundreds of

0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:45.280
<v Speaker 1>billions of dollars of cash sin in assets like this

0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:48.760
<v Speaker 1>that are all losing money to what the monetary supply

0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:49.200
<v Speaker 1>is doing.

0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:51.560
<v Speaker 2>They're all going to be looking for a new model.

0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:54.480
<v Speaker 1>That's how big this is all right, Now, this all

0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:57.439
<v Speaker 1>sits within the quantum wealth window.

0:12:57.440 --> 0:12:58.480
<v Speaker 2>That I talk about regularly.

0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:02.480
<v Speaker 1>There's a fifty year site that we see technology develop

0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:05.040
<v Speaker 1>and it's happened. Now we're on our six times this

0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:07.120
<v Speaker 1>has happened in the last three hundred years. The reason

0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:08.640
<v Speaker 1>why I like to bring that up over and over

0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:12.480
<v Speaker 1>is because the more times a cycle repeats, the more

0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:16.160
<v Speaker 1>dependable the cycle is. And we know that there's four

0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:19.200
<v Speaker 1>distinct phases that each one of these happen within the

0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:22.079
<v Speaker 1>first phase is where the new technology is first created.

0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:23.600
<v Speaker 2>We call that the eruption phase.

0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:26.440
<v Speaker 1>The second phase, which we're in right now by this

0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:28.640
<v Speaker 1>green arrow, is the frenzy phase. Now, it's important to

0:13:28.679 --> 0:13:31.920
<v Speaker 1>understand that each one of these gives us a different blueprint,

0:13:31.960 --> 0:13:34.680
<v Speaker 1>a different model to be invested through. And in the

0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:37.840
<v Speaker 1>eruption phase is the retail phase. This is when bitcoin

0:13:37.880 --> 0:13:40.000
<v Speaker 1>came onto the scene. It's when we had the rise

0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:42.880
<v Speaker 1>of cryptocurrencies and retail investors came into the space. But

0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:46.320
<v Speaker 1>in the frenzy phase, this is where the institutional investors

0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:48.440
<v Speaker 1>come in. This is where the sovereign governments come in,

0:13:48.800 --> 0:13:51.839
<v Speaker 1>and that's exactly what we're seeing right here. And when

0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:54.640
<v Speaker 1>we overlay what's called an S curve on top of that,

0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:58.719
<v Speaker 1>which is how we measure new technology adoption. We can

0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:01.720
<v Speaker 1>see that in this part of the cycle is where

0:14:01.760 --> 0:14:04.600
<v Speaker 1>we have the fastest growth, which means not only the

0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:08.200
<v Speaker 1>fastest adoption, but also the most amount of money coming in.

0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:09.760
<v Speaker 1>And so for a lot of people who think this

0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:14.040
<v Speaker 1>opportunity is a fad or they think that it's too late,

0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:16.640
<v Speaker 1>you can see that when you look at it through

0:14:16.679 --> 0:14:20.640
<v Speaker 1>that lens, it is just getting started. Okay, so what

0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:22.440
<v Speaker 1>are you gonna do with all this? It's great now

0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:25.360
<v Speaker 1>as you've got it right, some information, some knowledge, what

0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:26.040
<v Speaker 1>are you going to do with it?

0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:26.680
<v Speaker 2>Well, a couple of things.

0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:29.160
<v Speaker 1>Number One, you can buy bitcoin directly. That would be

0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:31.240
<v Speaker 1>the foundation if I was going to build a pyramid.

0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:33.920
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to buy some bitcoin directly, because as

0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:37.600
<v Speaker 1>these companies start using their treasury more like a refinery

0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:41.480
<v Speaker 1>and start changing the base layer of the financial system, it's.

0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:42.440
<v Speaker 2>Going to push bitcoin up.

0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:45.320
<v Speaker 1>Number Two, you can buy equity in some of these

0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:50.640
<v Speaker 1>bitcoin treasury companies, like micro Strategy, like Metaplanet, like dozens

0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:52.840
<v Speaker 1>of others that have come out since then that are

0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:55.080
<v Speaker 1>going up five hundred percent, some are going up five

0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:56.360
<v Speaker 1>thousand percent in months.

0:14:56.480 --> 0:14:57.520
<v Speaker 2>They're going really fastly.

0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:00.240
<v Speaker 1>And then Three, you can use the same strategy for

0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:03.960
<v Speaker 1>your own business. Again, you have, hopefully you have a business,

0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:06.200
<v Speaker 1>maybe it has some money. What do you do with

0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:08.240
<v Speaker 1>the treasury? Where does it sit? Is it sitting in

0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:10.760
<v Speaker 1>cash losing money? Are you putting to do as treasuries?

0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:13.200
<v Speaker 1>Or do you want to use your own treasury more.

0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:15.240
<v Speaker 2>Like a refinery model like these are doing. Now.

0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:16.520
<v Speaker 1>If you want to know a little bit more about

0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:18.880
<v Speaker 1>these companies and why I made a video calling this

0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:22.240
<v Speaker 1>the iPhone moment, you might want to watch this video

0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:23.840
<v Speaker 1>right here and I'll see you over there.