WEBVTT - The Democrats Are Folding on the Shutdown 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:28.244 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, the show about making 0:00:28.244 --> 0:00:31.484 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova, I'm Nate Silver. 0:00:32.684 --> 0:00:35.564 We're at no lack of political news. We're going to 0:00:35.644 --> 0:00:39.204 talk about the elections that were held this last Tuesday, 0:00:40.004 --> 0:00:42.404 the shutdown that it's on its way to being over, 0:00:42.604 --> 0:00:45.604 maybe will be officially super deeper over by the time 0:00:45.684 --> 0:00:50.604 you listener are hearing this episode. Big win for Democrats 0:00:50.604 --> 0:00:52.964 in one case, I'd argue, a big l for Democrats 0:00:53.004 --> 0:00:55.004 and the So we're gonna we're gonna talk all that 0:00:55.084 --> 0:00:57.524 through in kind of an emerged way, I think, which 0:00:57.524 --> 0:00:59.524 is how it feels as they're prossing this in real time. 0:00:59.804 --> 0:01:02.764 Yeah, and you know what does as we often wonder 0:01:02.764 --> 0:01:04.804 on the show, what does this mean for the future 0:01:04.924 --> 0:01:07.884 of the Democratic Party and what they should be thinking 0:01:08.124 --> 0:01:11.884 going forward. So let's get into it. So, yes, full disclosure, 0:01:11.924 --> 0:01:15.324 we are taping us on Monday, November tenth. Lots of 0:01:15.364 --> 0:01:18.364 things happening, Nate that you would probably agree that had 0:01:18.364 --> 0:01:22.044 we been taping this, say on Friday, it would be 0:01:22.124 --> 0:01:25.084 a very and I mean Friday last week, would be 0:01:25.124 --> 0:01:28.164 a very different segment because we'd be talking about it 0:01:28.164 --> 0:01:30.764 in very different terms. In terms of what the democraty 0:01:31.044 --> 0:01:34.484 Democratic Party was doing, what its momentum was like, than 0:01:34.524 --> 0:01:37.764 we are after the weekend, when we had ten members 0:01:37.884 --> 0:01:42.204 of the Senate basically capitulate and say, Okay, we don't 0:01:42.244 --> 0:01:43.644 want the shutdown to continue. 0:01:43.884 --> 0:01:47.084 Yeah, look if we've been taping on Friday or Wednesday 0:01:47.404 --> 0:01:49.644 for that matter. I mean, look on my newsletter, I 0:01:49.684 --> 0:01:52.444 called the night a ten out of ten for Democrats. 0:01:52.484 --> 0:01:56.804 They won basically every race that you might expect them 0:01:56.844 --> 0:01:59.604 to win. They win Virginia a Jersey by huge margins. 0:01:59.644 --> 0:02:02.564 They won a bunch of Supreme Court retentions of Pennsylvania, 0:02:02.644 --> 0:02:06.924 They won all the little Kitaly State Senate and dogcatcher races. 0:02:07.364 --> 0:02:09.164 You know, depending on what type of Democrat you are, 0:02:09.484 --> 0:02:12.444 may or may not feel good about the results. In 0:02:12.444 --> 0:02:15.324 New York City, that's a little bit of a different bucket. 0:02:15.364 --> 0:02:19.404 You had a Democrat running against a former Democrat. But 0:02:19.524 --> 0:02:22.564 this was like a ten out of ten night. You know, 0:02:22.604 --> 0:02:26.764 one thing it demonstrated is that President Trump is extremely unpopular. 0:02:26.884 --> 0:02:31.964 In fact, his unpopularity increased during the shutdown. Let me 0:02:32.044 --> 0:02:34.364 qualify that, though, right, What really seemed to trigger an 0:02:34.404 --> 0:02:40.804 increase in Trump's disapproval rating was suspending SNAP benefits, that is, 0:02:40.884 --> 0:02:44.804 the food nutrition program a food stamps. If you look 0:02:44.844 --> 0:02:46.884 carefully at when his approval rating spike, because at first 0:02:46.924 --> 0:02:50.004 in the shutdown it wasn't much affected. Actually in silver 0:02:50.044 --> 0:02:53.444 bulletins tracking it increased marginally, kind of within the margin 0:02:53.524 --> 0:02:57.404 of error. But when he tried to use that as 0:02:57.444 --> 0:03:00.204 a political cudgel and ignored court orders to funded and 0:03:00.244 --> 0:03:02.364 obviously Trump has exercised a lot of discression and what 0:03:02.404 --> 0:03:04.884 things are or are not funded. I mean that effects 0:03:05.484 --> 0:03:09.324 forty three million Americans or something. And you know, that 0:03:09.484 --> 0:03:12.644 combined with having these fancy dinners that Trump is inclined 0:03:12.684 --> 0:03:14.684 to have most presidents, to do with mar A Lago, 0:03:14.764 --> 0:03:20.204 and just a general insensitivity toward how Accoute might feel 0:03:21.364 --> 0:03:23.924 was you know, it seems like really starting to affect 0:03:23.924 --> 0:03:26.444 his numbers. Also, all these issues, both healthcare, which were 0:03:26.444 --> 0:03:30.324 the a sensible six of the shutdown and snapenefits have 0:03:30.364 --> 0:03:33.364 to do with affordability, right in the case of some 0:03:33.444 --> 0:03:37.364 staff recipients, maybe the ability to buy food at all 0:03:37.484 --> 0:03:43.324 or go hungry potentially, you know, between those things and paraffs, 0:03:43.844 --> 0:03:46.244 you know, I mean, we talk about all the fuck 0:03:46.284 --> 0:03:48.164 ups that Democrats make and we'll talk about them some 0:03:48.204 --> 0:03:52.444 of them today. But like Republicans are not exactly game 0:03:52.524 --> 0:03:55.964 theory optimal political strategists either, or at least or at 0:03:56.044 --> 0:04:00.204 least Trump isn't right, you know, on some level the 0:04:00.284 --> 0:04:04.084 kind of progressive critique the Republics want to cut benefits 0:04:04.084 --> 0:04:05.804 for the poor in order to pay for tax cuts 0:04:05.804 --> 0:04:09.684 for the rich. I mean that's like directionally true for 0:04:09.764 --> 0:04:12.804 a long time. You know, it's true of Trump. But 0:04:13.164 --> 0:04:17.004 you know, if you fuck with people's benefits. And by 0:04:17.004 --> 0:04:19.324 the way, we're in an environment now where Trump likes 0:04:19.324 --> 0:04:23.004 to scariotype Democrats as being poor, the ones who would 0:04:23.084 --> 0:04:27.164 need food stamps. Again, the audience should know, I'm not 0:04:27.244 --> 0:04:32.244 super woke, Right, this often is racially coded messaging. Right, 0:04:32.324 --> 0:04:34.884 you look at the data, then probably a pretty even 0:04:34.884 --> 0:04:38.564 mix of Democratic and Republican groups that are receiving these benefits. Right, 0:04:39.004 --> 0:04:42.644 Trump actually does quite well with poorer white voters. Trump 0:04:42.684 --> 0:04:47.564 also does fairly well with minorities who didn't attend college 0:04:47.604 --> 0:04:50.844 and things like that, and so so that was a 0:04:50.884 --> 0:04:57.044 big political opportunity, yeah for Democrats, and then they just 0:04:57.364 --> 0:04:59.284 they just caved. You know, I'm busted out of my 0:04:59.284 --> 0:05:01.844 poker tournament, and like oh, the shutdowns over, Maybe I'll 0:05:01.844 --> 0:05:05.724 make my flights back and forth around the country. But Maria, 0:05:05.804 --> 0:05:06.364 what do you think. 0:05:06.524 --> 0:05:08.964 Yeah, well, I was looking at a lot of the 0:05:09.044 --> 0:05:12.644 number over kind of the last week, and I noticed 0:05:12.724 --> 0:05:16.684 two things. One kind of when you see the New 0:05:16.764 --> 0:05:19.484 York election, it seems like mcdonnie was able to make 0:05:19.484 --> 0:05:21.764 inroads into a lot of the areas that had gone 0:05:21.964 --> 0:05:26.244 redder in the presidential election and that had gone Trump, right, 0:05:26.284 --> 0:05:29.484 So it seems that he was actually successful in appealing 0:05:29.484 --> 0:05:32.684 to some of that base to vote Democratic, which to 0:05:32.844 --> 0:05:36.244 me spoke of the fact that you know, there were 0:05:36.284 --> 0:05:38.404 people were starting to get fed up, right, some of 0:05:38.444 --> 0:05:42.684 those lower income areas that had been heavily pro Trump 0:05:43.004 --> 0:05:45.284 were starting to kind of feel the pain of everything 0:05:45.324 --> 0:05:48.644 that's been going on. And as you pointed out in 0:05:48.684 --> 0:05:51.084 your newsletter, and I think this is true, some of 0:05:51.124 --> 0:05:54.204 the messaging of the Democrats during the shutdown hadn't really 0:05:54.204 --> 0:05:57.484 been landing, like the Affordable Care Act, right, the healthcare 0:05:57.524 --> 0:06:00.644 It should be landing, right, you should want healthcare. But 0:06:01.284 --> 0:06:05.044 you know, because people are very in the moment and 0:06:05.244 --> 0:06:07.684 they don't always You and I are you know, very 0:06:07.804 --> 0:06:10.684 much online and kind of pay attention to this, but 0:06:10.964 --> 0:06:13.164 a lot of people they're not online and they're not 0:06:13.244 --> 0:06:14.964 really listening, and they're like, I don't know what the 0:06:14.964 --> 0:06:17.644 Affordable Care Act is, you know, like I don't care. 0:06:17.804 --> 0:06:20.444 My payments still seem the same. They don't realize, oh, 0:06:20.484 --> 0:06:23.564 this really might be affecting me. So the messaging wasn't 0:06:23.604 --> 0:06:27.764 exactly landing, but with the combination of you know, tariffs 0:06:27.804 --> 0:06:30.884 finally starting to kind of play out in the pricing, 0:06:31.204 --> 0:06:35.444 and Snap, which does immediately affect you, right, It affects 0:06:35.564 --> 0:06:39.004 your ability to get food, It affects your ability to 0:06:39.124 --> 0:06:43.764 get benefits right now. It's kind of it's a very emotional, 0:06:44.084 --> 0:06:47.524 very kind of visceral experience that caused. 0:06:47.644 --> 0:06:50.124 If you look at Google searches for Snap benefits, they 0:06:50.124 --> 0:06:52.444 have this weird cyclicality based on I don't you know, 0:06:52.484 --> 0:06:54.884 I've not been I'm like Sam some my loft. I 0:06:54.884 --> 0:06:56.964 don't know the timing of when they're released, but you 0:06:57.004 --> 0:07:00.124 can see syclicality that indicates people are searching for information 0:07:00.164 --> 0:07:03.924 about whereas the grocery store can go with with food 0:07:03.924 --> 0:07:06.844 stamps the moment they receive yeah, those benefits and things 0:07:06.884 --> 0:07:10.124 like that, right, and so it's literally eating is about 0:07:10.204 --> 0:07:14.884 the most visceral exactly exactly that one can imagine healthcare 0:07:14.924 --> 0:07:18.084 maybe you know, one absolute degree removed from that. In 0:07:18.084 --> 0:07:21.324 the Suden said, it's hopefully mostly preventative, or IF's not preventive, 0:07:21.324 --> 0:07:23.764 and it's things that you don't realize until you have 0:07:23.804 --> 0:07:24.404 a problem. 0:07:24.604 --> 0:07:28.524 Right, But food is something that we really care about, 0:07:28.604 --> 0:07:32.164 right obviously, and now this was kind of a double 0:07:32.204 --> 0:07:34.844 whammy because food prices are going up. You know, I 0:07:34.844 --> 0:07:37.084 don't care what Trump is saying that the prices are down, 0:07:37.244 --> 0:07:40.244 It's not true. Right, we know that inflation is actually 0:07:40.324 --> 0:07:43.724 hitting kind of that angle, and we know that Snap 0:07:43.724 --> 0:07:46.484 benefits where finally, you know, people didn't know there was 0:07:46.524 --> 0:07:48.524 a lot of uncertainty. We also talk a lot on 0:07:48.564 --> 0:07:51.604 the show about how the human mind really doesn't like uncertainty. 0:07:51.804 --> 0:07:54.564 So it's horrible. Can you imagine if you have a 0:07:54.604 --> 0:07:56.564 family to feed and you're in limbo, You're like, I 0:07:56.604 --> 0:07:59.284 don't know if I'm going to get my Snap benefits, right, Like, 0:07:59.484 --> 0:08:02.044 I actually have no idea if they're going to come 0:08:02.084 --> 0:08:04.844 this weekend. I don't know if I'll be able to 0:08:05.524 --> 0:08:08.164 afford my meal. Like, I don't know what's going to happen. 0:08:08.404 --> 0:08:10.564 And it keeps going back and forth, and they release 0:08:10.604 --> 0:08:14.204 funds and they don't release funds, and people, you know, 0:08:14.284 --> 0:08:17.764 this is a moment where you can really appeal to 0:08:17.804 --> 0:08:20.404 people and be like, see, you know, this is actually 0:08:20.644 --> 0:08:23.844 because people also were you know, I think about equally 0:08:23.884 --> 0:08:27.004 blaming and correct me if I'm wrong Democrats and Republicans 0:08:27.044 --> 0:08:29.764 for the shutdown. It wasn't like Republicans were getting all 0:08:29.764 --> 0:08:32.284 the blame. But with the Snap benefits, it's very clear 0:08:32.324 --> 0:08:35.204 that there are people who are saying, hey, you know, 0:08:35.444 --> 0:08:38.124 release the money. We need to pay, we need to 0:08:38.164 --> 0:08:41.084 get money to the families. And you have Trump saying no, right, 0:08:41.164 --> 0:08:43.644 It's actually he's saying, no, I don't want to release 0:08:43.684 --> 0:08:47.364 this money. I don't want the Snap benefits going out. So, 0:08:47.764 --> 0:08:49.364 you know, Nate, who knows what in the world he 0:08:49.444 --> 0:08:51.484 was thinking. But what we do know is that the 0:08:51.484 --> 0:08:52.764 effect of this was felt. 0:08:52.844 --> 0:08:53.084 Right. 0:08:53.244 --> 0:08:56.404 The approval ratings were going down, and I think that 0:08:56.484 --> 0:08:59.524 this helped kind of the momentum, the victorious moment of 0:08:59.564 --> 0:09:02.524 the Democrats saying, you know, because this all happened at 0:09:02.524 --> 0:09:04.604 the same time, right, there was this coalition. 0:09:05.124 --> 0:09:08.764 I mean, I think Democrats have the problem, the same 0:09:08.764 --> 0:09:11.244 problem that Marie and I do, which is that, you know, 0:09:11.284 --> 0:09:16.244 most people who comment on politics are are fairly privileged, right, 0:09:17.684 --> 0:09:22.084 and in certain ways, it's the privilege to talk about 0:09:22.244 --> 0:09:26.764 abstract concepts like creeping authoritarianism or long term impacts like 0:09:27.084 --> 0:09:31.244 climate change, for example, as opposed to the visceral can 0:09:31.284 --> 0:09:33.444 I eat today? If I get into a car accident, 0:09:33.884 --> 0:09:36.804 do I have insurance to cover my you know, broken 0:09:37.564 --> 0:09:40.124 leg or whatever else? Right, those things are a bit 0:09:40.164 --> 0:09:44.724 more visceral. And I think, you know, one of the 0:09:44.764 --> 0:09:47.804 problems you had with the shutdown is that, like so, 0:09:47.884 --> 0:09:52.604 the a sensible basis for it was healthcare. Right. If 0:09:52.604 --> 0:09:57.004 you look for Google searches for the Affordable Care Act, right, 0:09:57.324 --> 0:09:59.524 they were up a little bit, but they're they're tiny 0:09:59.644 --> 0:10:03.044 as compared to searches for snap benefits or a shutdown, 0:10:03.124 --> 0:10:04.764 or other news stories that came up, like the no 0:10:04.884 --> 0:10:11.724 King's protests or even even the White House renovation, slash destruction, 0:10:11.844 --> 0:10:16.724 construction of the East wing, creation of a new ballroom. 0:10:17.084 --> 0:10:19.324 You know, all those things have a much bigger registry. 0:10:19.364 --> 0:10:22.524 And I think because there are some Democrats like alexandriro 0:10:22.684 --> 0:10:26.484 Kazak Cortez or Bernie Sanders that are very effective on healthcare, 0:10:26.604 --> 0:10:28.404 a lot of Democrats are going TV want to talk 0:10:28.404 --> 0:10:31.084 about these kind of more abstract themes instead. That's kind 0:10:31.124 --> 0:10:33.884 of what the democratic we spelt like the blogosphere, right, 0:10:35.164 --> 0:10:41.804 you know, democratic podcasters, substackers, social media personalities, cable news guests. Right, 0:10:42.124 --> 0:10:44.644 you know, they are usually talking about these abstract things 0:10:44.684 --> 0:10:47.684 democracy and so forth, right and so like, you know, 0:10:47.724 --> 0:10:52.124 it wasn't quite like democrats hearts were rellion the message either. 0:10:52.524 --> 0:10:55.964 And I mean there are a couple of stories by 0:10:56.124 --> 0:11:01.124 democrats cave right. You know. One story involves we're afraid 0:11:01.164 --> 0:11:05.284 about the tangible impact on people and we are the 0:11:05.364 --> 0:11:07.364 kind heart of people. We can't make people suffer for 0:11:07.404 --> 0:11:09.084 this thing. That's not going to work anyway. Right, it's 0:11:09.124 --> 0:11:12.124 once story. You know. Story number two is that ultimately 0:11:12.924 --> 0:11:14.724 that if you listen to Maria and I are read 0:11:14.804 --> 0:11:17.204 by writing a silver bulletin, you know, recognized early on 0:11:17.284 --> 0:11:18.764 that like a lot of this comes down to you, 0:11:18.804 --> 0:11:23.844 are you willing to have Republicans blow up the filibuster? Right? 0:11:23.924 --> 0:11:25.764 If you do that, you don't need any Democratic votes. Right, 0:11:25.804 --> 0:11:29.444 you have majorities in both chambers of Congress, and you know, 0:11:29.604 --> 0:11:31.684 reportedly there were some centators who didn't want to go 0:11:31.724 --> 0:11:35.844 that far. And then they're just kind of general risk aversion, 0:11:36.684 --> 0:11:39.324 you know. So it's kind of the flip. You know. 0:11:39.364 --> 0:11:43.444 On the one hand, the public assumes, perhaps correctly, and 0:11:43.484 --> 0:11:46.684 that it's Republicans who like to not pay for a 0:11:46.724 --> 0:11:52.084 shit that helps working class people and shut government shit down. Right. 0:11:52.124 --> 0:11:56.684 So on the one hand, that might create I don't 0:11:56.724 --> 0:11:59.604 know if you call it a bias, but create like 0:11:59.684 --> 0:12:02.684 kind of the presumption among the public that like, if 0:12:02.724 --> 0:12:05.564 things aren't functioning well in government, then and it's some 0:12:05.604 --> 0:12:08.324 type of policy choice opposed to incompetence or whatever, right, 0:12:08.364 --> 0:12:11.804 then that is a Republican choice, right, and that message 0:12:11.884 --> 0:12:13.884 is pretty hard for them to overcome, especially when Trump 0:12:13.964 --> 0:12:16.444 is saying about things like snap, benefit's no, we don't 0:12:16.444 --> 0:12:19.124 want those right. You know. The other hand, like if 0:12:19.124 --> 0:12:21.244 they're big like softies who are going to like cave 0:12:21.964 --> 0:12:27.284 on everything, then then okay, then that creates a predictable outcome. 0:12:27.324 --> 0:12:30.604 You're gonna cave at some point, and what consequence does 0:12:30.684 --> 0:12:32.884 that have? I mean, Maria, you know, since we've been 0:12:32.924 --> 0:12:38.084 out here playing poker, yea, let's let me go for 0:12:38.164 --> 0:12:42.684 a poker two to oh one kind of more detailed analogy. Right, 0:12:44.684 --> 0:12:47.684 there's times when let's say I'm playing a tough player. Right, 0:12:48.044 --> 0:12:51.564 the tough opponent raises, you know I'm playing you. I'm 0:12:51.604 --> 0:12:55.444 playing you, and I just feel like you're owning me today. 0:12:55.684 --> 0:12:57.764 I'm sorry, you know, I just got your number today. 0:12:58.764 --> 0:13:01.444 You raise. I'm defending my blind right, and I have 0:13:01.524 --> 0:13:04.324 a hand that I know according to the computers. According 0:13:04.364 --> 0:13:08.764 to game theory, defense right is a is a thin 0:13:08.844 --> 0:13:14.364 defend for example, a king for offsuit or something right. 0:13:15.204 --> 0:13:19.244 And the way that you realize money with that hand is, Yeah, 0:13:19.284 --> 0:13:21.484 sometimes you thought the king or a pair of fos 0:13:21.524 --> 0:13:23.844 a hold on. But it's also stuff like sometimes you're 0:13:23.844 --> 0:13:26.684 supposed to turn it into a bluff. Sometimes you're supposed 0:13:26.684 --> 0:13:30.804 to call down really thin right, someone's supposed to hope 0:13:30.844 --> 0:13:33.524 that Maria is a turn from betting, and like, and 0:13:33.604 --> 0:13:36.124 all those ways to realize the value of the hand 0:13:36.764 --> 0:13:41.124 are difficult and require a lot of skill and discipline 0:13:41.724 --> 0:13:42.644 on every other street. 0:13:42.724 --> 0:13:45.084 Right, yes, And I'm just gonna I'm just gonna caveat 0:13:45.124 --> 0:13:48.564 this because for people who don't play poker, yes to 0:13:48.684 --> 0:13:52.324 kind of one, yes to a one for kind of 0:13:52.684 --> 0:13:54.804 and applying it to kind of the broader political thing 0:13:55.124 --> 0:13:58.844 like big caveat in poker. Just to remind you, you 0:13:58.884 --> 0:14:01.804 do not actually have to have the best hand to win, right. 0:14:01.844 --> 0:14:03.844 It is the only game where you can win with 0:14:04.004 --> 0:14:07.044 the worst hand if you play it correctly, if you 0:14:07.244 --> 0:14:11.204 execute the strategy correctly. And yes, some of it is 0:14:11.324 --> 0:14:14.484 just outright bluffing, but it's also putting your opponent to 0:14:14.564 --> 0:14:17.604 a to a hard kind of test when they might 0:14:17.684 --> 0:14:20.204 have a decent hand but not a great hand. So 0:14:20.284 --> 0:14:24.004 it's all about being able to figure out how do 0:14:24.084 --> 0:14:27.044 I exert pressure correctly? So your King four offsuit. For 0:14:27.044 --> 0:14:28.804 people listening, they're like, wait, I thought that was a 0:14:28.804 --> 0:14:31.324 bad hand. Yes, it is a bad hand. However, there 0:14:31.364 --> 0:14:35.444 are reasons why we might still want to play it 0:14:35.844 --> 0:14:38.484 if we have kind of this future game tree in 0:14:38.604 --> 0:14:41.564 mind and we are confident of our abilities to be 0:14:41.604 --> 0:14:45.404 able to execute that correctly. Please continuate. So you've defended King. 0:14:45.284 --> 0:14:48.564 Four, and now you get a good price from the pot, right, 0:14:48.604 --> 0:14:52.164 you have good pot odds. If let me just you know, 0:14:53.124 --> 0:14:57.124 if you are not willing to make those thin call 0:14:57.324 --> 0:15:01.524 downs and creative bluffs from time to time, then the 0:15:01.564 --> 0:15:07.724 hand is not profitable to defend. Just if everything goes right, yeah, now, 0:15:07.724 --> 0:15:10.364 and then you hit two pair or make trips or 0:15:10.364 --> 0:15:13.284 some weird straight with the four or something. Right, it 0:15:13.484 --> 0:15:15.884 just happened enough just by the time when you have 0:15:15.964 --> 0:15:17.564 a better hammer rear right, you know. In other words, 0:15:17.604 --> 0:15:21.684 if you are not willing to be strategic and exercise 0:15:21.764 --> 0:15:27.164 your options and adapts, circumstances just unfold, right, then just 0:15:27.204 --> 0:15:29.284 don't do it, yeah, because like you're not gonna like, 0:15:29.404 --> 0:15:32.524 you know, this thing about Snap. I mean, people kind 0:15:32.524 --> 0:15:35.284 of mischaracter you know, all these kind of we're partisan 0:15:35.284 --> 0:15:36.924 Democrats who are like we're waiting the checkdown. It's like, 0:15:36.924 --> 0:15:38.404 I don't really think you're wanting to checkdown because at 0:15:38.444 --> 0:15:41.244 first Tripschoo writing didn't really decline at all. We talked 0:15:41.244 --> 0:15:43.524 about it on the show, right, and then Snap when 0:15:43.524 --> 0:15:44.764 there were some of the stuff there was a white 0:15:44.764 --> 0:15:47.244 House and no Kings. But like it seems based on 0:15:47.284 --> 0:15:49.964 the persistence of Google searches for Snap and the persistence 0:15:50.004 --> 0:15:52.084 of that in the dialogue and the discourse and the 0:15:52.084 --> 0:15:54.524 real world impact of it, that like that was a 0:15:54.604 --> 0:15:58.164 real gift to Democrats and you know, about the best 0:15:58.204 --> 0:16:03.524 possible turn of events they could have, and they still cave, 0:16:03.724 --> 0:16:06.164 which means that like their whole strategy was really miss 0:16:06.724 --> 0:16:08.724 gotten in the first place, if something goes well for 0:16:08.804 --> 0:16:12.524 you and you still don't know how to play right 0:16:12.644 --> 0:16:14.444 or still give up, and that means you're already then 0:16:14.484 --> 0:16:15.444 close to having. 0:16:15.404 --> 0:16:18.964 Yeah, imagine, imagine, you know, to continue nate your poker 0:16:19.004 --> 0:16:22.204 analogy since you started it. Imagine that you did decide, 0:16:22.244 --> 0:16:24.564 you know, okay, you know what, I'm going to defend this. 0:16:24.684 --> 0:16:27.084 I'm not quite sure why, but I am. And then 0:16:27.084 --> 0:16:31.924 the flop comes, you know, king three six something like that, 0:16:32.244 --> 0:16:35.404 so you have top pair, and then you know, you check, 0:16:35.484 --> 0:16:38.404 I bet big, you call. Basically you end up folding 0:16:38.444 --> 0:16:41.844 the king anyway, right, and you you end up folding 0:16:41.844 --> 0:16:44.604 the king on a board that doesn't really change at 0:16:44.644 --> 0:16:47.484 all from the flop, and you already or let's just 0:16:47.764 --> 0:16:49.804 let's say you made a pair of fours and there's 0:16:49.804 --> 0:16:53.284 nothing else. Let's just imagine that you actually did well right, 0:16:53.644 --> 0:16:56.564 and your hand became something much more playable than it 0:16:56.644 --> 0:17:00.404 was originally, and yet you still end up bending to 0:17:00.444 --> 0:17:03.484 pressure because you're like, well, Maria's betting so big that 0:17:03.564 --> 0:17:07.524 she probably has a better king, right, she probably has 0:17:07.844 --> 0:17:10.404 you know, an even better kicker. Kicker is the second 0:17:10.404 --> 0:17:12.564 card for people who don't play poker. You know, she 0:17:12.684 --> 0:17:15.484 probably has like King ten or something like that, I'm 0:17:15.524 --> 0:17:17.724 just going to fold just in case. Well, then what 0:17:17.764 --> 0:17:21.004 the fuck were you doing defunding the king for if 0:17:21.004 --> 0:17:24.004 you're either going you know, if you're not actually able 0:17:24.044 --> 0:17:27.084 to navigate those situations. And it seems to me that 0:17:27.644 --> 0:17:31.244 over and over what Democrats have done is have these 0:17:31.284 --> 0:17:34.124 principled positions where they're like, you know, we can't do this, 0:17:34.444 --> 0:17:37.684 and I'm you know, great, you know, I also don't 0:17:37.724 --> 0:17:39.924 think we should be taking away health care from people. 0:17:40.164 --> 0:17:42.164 You know, kudos, this is a great thing to stand 0:17:42.244 --> 0:17:44.324 up for. But then why the hell did you do it. 0:17:44.364 --> 0:17:47.004 If you're going to say, okay, well fine, you can 0:17:47.004 --> 0:17:50.564 take away the health care as long as you you know, 0:17:50.684 --> 0:17:52.564 pay them food benefits right now, well, then why did 0:17:52.564 --> 0:17:54.484 we even get you know, if you didn't even have 0:17:54.524 --> 0:17:57.684 a shutdown, if you capitulate on everything, then we wouldn't 0:17:57.724 --> 0:18:01.244 even be in this snap situation or this airline drama 0:18:01.364 --> 0:18:04.204 or any of this. And the Republicans get everything they 0:18:04.204 --> 0:18:07.524 wanted originally anyway. So it just seems like, you know, 0:18:07.604 --> 0:18:10.524 if you already know that, then why in the world. 0:18:10.724 --> 0:18:15.044 Then it means that your strategy was not principled. Because 0:18:15.244 --> 0:18:19.004 you are stepping back from all of those principles, right 0:18:19.124 --> 0:18:21.244 Like if you were saying we're the nice party that 0:18:21.364 --> 0:18:23.684 just doesn't want people to get hurt, well, you know, 0:18:23.764 --> 0:18:26.124 then sometimes you have to take immediate pain. And it 0:18:26.164 --> 0:18:27.764 seems like they're not able to do that. 0:18:30.604 --> 0:18:32.644 And we'll be right back after this break. 0:18:49.244 --> 0:18:53.044 So back to kind of this broader question of how 0:18:53.124 --> 0:18:57.084 is the Democratic Party doing now? I'm in a you know, 0:18:57.124 --> 0:19:00.004 as I said last week, it was such an amazing 0:19:00.084 --> 0:19:02.564 moment where you could see an amazing moment if you're 0:19:02.604 --> 0:19:05.084 a Democrat, where you could see all sorts of different 0:19:05.164 --> 0:19:07.604 kinds of candidates when right in different places. It's not 0:19:07.724 --> 0:19:10.844 like the progressives. One, yes, Mamdani won in New York, 0:19:10.884 --> 0:19:14.884 but much more moderate candidates won in you know, New Jersey, 0:19:15.444 --> 0:19:19.084 in other states, and you know, people, it seemed like 0:19:19.444 --> 0:19:22.924 there were people coming together to say, Okay, you know what, 0:19:22.964 --> 0:19:25.764 we're getting fed up and there is some Democratic momentum 0:19:25.804 --> 0:19:28.084 and this might hold through the midterms and if you 0:19:28.084 --> 0:19:31.284 can keep it going, this might have all sorts of 0:19:31.324 --> 0:19:34.564 good things for the party. I think actually Nancy Pelosis 0:19:34.564 --> 0:19:36.684 saying she's not going to run again was also a 0:19:36.724 --> 0:19:38.644 good thing for the party to say, Okay, we need 0:19:38.684 --> 0:19:42.484 some younger blood, we need some of these these people 0:19:42.524 --> 0:19:46.764 who probably shouldn't have been running for reelection already last cycle. 0:19:47.004 --> 0:19:49.044 It's good that they're finally stepping down. There were a 0:19:49.044 --> 0:19:52.604 lot of good things, and now, you know what, it's 0:19:52.684 --> 0:19:55.604 kind of in some ways, Nate, and maybe this is 0:19:55.644 --> 0:19:58.364 a little bit harsh. What they did over the weekend 0:19:58.444 --> 0:20:00.444 seems like a little bit of a fuck you to 0:20:00.524 --> 0:20:02.964 the people who kind of banded together and stood by 0:20:03.004 --> 0:20:05.804 them and said, you know what, we can actually affect 0:20:05.844 --> 0:20:08.164 change and then said, eh, you know what, We're just 0:20:08.204 --> 0:20:11.644 gonna We're just gonna anyway. At least that's what it felt. 0:20:11.444 --> 0:20:16.524 Like to be. Look, we haven't mentioned the chuck of 0:20:16.644 --> 0:20:18.644 Chuck and Nancy Chum. 0:20:20.004 --> 0:20:22.564 He, by the way, was opposed to He was one 0:20:22.604 --> 0:20:25.244 of the voices that was that it was opposed to 0:20:26.084 --> 0:20:26.844 ending the shutdown. 0:20:26.844 --> 0:20:29.844 Correct, he voted against it. But what the party leader 0:20:30.084 --> 0:20:38.884 does is theatrics, right, it's theatrics. And fair enough, Look, 0:20:38.964 --> 0:20:43.084 if he if he couldn't control his caucus after this 0:20:43.244 --> 0:20:45.764 very good turn of events, then he should resign anyway, 0:20:45.804 --> 0:20:47.564 because he has no right. 0:20:48.164 --> 0:20:51.124 So so yes, it either means that he is disingenuous, 0:20:51.164 --> 0:20:54.124 and he was okay with these votes that are ending 0:20:54.124 --> 0:20:56.364 the shutdown, and he just wanted to publicly say no, 0:20:56.484 --> 0:20:59.124 I'm not or it means that he's ineffective. One of 0:20:59.164 --> 0:21:01.604 the two, and either one is not a particularly good thing. 0:21:02.204 --> 0:21:07.004 Remember he didn't shut the government down last March at 0:21:07.004 --> 0:21:13.324 a time when it was a lower boil for democratic disarray. 0:21:13.724 --> 0:21:15.444 I guess. I mean, you know, look, when you're the 0:21:15.444 --> 0:21:18.244 op position party, in some ways, there's never that much 0:21:18.284 --> 0:21:20.644 a rake. You don't really have to do that much. Right, 0:21:20.684 --> 0:21:27.324 But you know, Schumber didn't command any confidence in his caucus. Right, 0:21:27.404 --> 0:21:30.804 He's often very unpopular even among Democrats. A florality of 0:21:30.844 --> 0:21:34.044 Democrats in the recent PW Research poll have a negative 0:21:34.124 --> 0:21:36.444 opinion of Schumer. Right, Like, all these things to me 0:21:37.604 --> 0:21:40.964 suggests he's not tenable as party leader. Like I don't 0:21:41.004 --> 0:21:43.364 understand why. I mean, actually I do kind of you know, 0:21:43.364 --> 0:21:45.044 one reason why you might have someone to replace Schumer's 0:21:45.044 --> 0:21:47.044 because like it's kind of a bad job. It's kind 0:21:47.044 --> 0:21:48.924 of a terrible job. You're going to piss people off 0:21:49.244 --> 0:21:52.444 no matter what. But you know, look, here are in 0:21:52.484 --> 0:21:56.124 my view, kind of the the long term stakes, right, 0:21:56.164 --> 0:21:59.764 which is that do you kind of trigger a a 0:21:59.924 --> 0:22:05.004 mini kind of Tea party movement among Democratic voters, where 0:22:05.644 --> 0:22:09.724 where if they don't do kind of what the activist 0:22:09.844 --> 0:22:14.404 base once right, then they're voting office in primaries. 0:22:14.484 --> 0:22:14.644 Right. 0:22:14.764 --> 0:22:17.204 That is a powerful extentive. It's a very powerful for Republicans. 0:22:17.444 --> 0:22:19.484