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Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, the show about making

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Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova, I'm Nate Silver.

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Speaker 2: We're at no lack of political news. We're going to

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Speaker 2: talk about the elections that were held this last Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: the shutdown that it's on its way to being over,

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Speaker 2: maybe will be officially super deeper over by the time

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Speaker 2: you listener are hearing this episode. Big win for Democrats

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Speaker 2: in one case, I'd argue, a big l for Democrats

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Speaker 2: and the So we're gonna we're gonna talk all that

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Speaker 2: through in kind of an emerged way, I think, which

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Speaker 2: is how it feels as they're prossing this in real time.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know what does as we often wonder

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Speaker 1: on the show, what does this mean for the future

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Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party and what they should be thinking

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Speaker 1: going forward. So let's get into it. So, yes, full disclosure,

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Speaker 1: we are taping us on Monday, November tenth. Lots of

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Speaker 1: things happening, Nate that you would probably agree that had

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Speaker 1: we been taping this, say on Friday, it would be

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Speaker 1: a very and I mean Friday last week, would be

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Speaker 1: a very different segment because we'd be talking about it

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Speaker 1: in very different terms. In terms of what the democraty

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party was doing, what its momentum was like, than

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Speaker 1: we are after the weekend, when we had ten members

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Speaker 1: of the Senate basically capitulate and say, Okay, we don't

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Speaker 1: want the shutdown to continue.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look if we've been taping on Friday or Wednesday

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Speaker 2: for that matter. I mean, look on my newsletter, I

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Speaker 2: called the night a ten out of ten for Democrats.

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Speaker 2: They won basically every race that you might expect them

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Speaker 2: to win. They win Virginia a Jersey by huge margins.

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Speaker 2: They won a bunch of Supreme Court retentions of Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 2: They won all the little Kitaly State Senate and dogcatcher races.

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Speaker 2: You know, depending on what type of Democrat you are,

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Speaker 2: may or may not feel good about the results. In

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Speaker 2: New York City, that's a little bit of a different bucket.

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Speaker 2: You had a Democrat running against a former Democrat. But

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Speaker 2: this was like a ten out of ten night. You know,

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Speaker 2: one thing it demonstrated is that President Trump is extremely unpopular.

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Speaker 2: In fact, his unpopularity increased during the shutdown. Let me

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Speaker 2: qualify that, though, right, What really seemed to trigger an

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Speaker 2: increase in Trump's disapproval rating was suspending SNAP benefits, that is,

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Speaker 2: the food nutrition program a food stamps. If you look

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Speaker 2: carefully at when his approval rating spike, because at first

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Speaker 2: in the shutdown it wasn't much affected. Actually in silver

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Speaker 2: bulletins tracking it increased marginally, kind of within the margin

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Speaker 2: of error. But when he tried to use that as

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Speaker 2: a political cudgel and ignored court orders to funded and

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Speaker 2: obviously Trump has exercised a lot of discression and what

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Speaker 2: things are or are not funded. I mean that effects

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Speaker 2: forty three million Americans or something. And you know, that

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Speaker 2: combined with having these fancy dinners that Trump is inclined

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Speaker 2: to have most presidents, to do with mar A Lago,

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Speaker 2: and just a general insensitivity toward how Accoute might feel

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Speaker 2: was you know, it seems like really starting to affect

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Speaker 2: his numbers. Also, all these issues, both healthcare, which were

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Speaker 2: the a sensible six of the shutdown and snapenefits have

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Speaker 2: to do with affordability, right in the case of some

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Speaker 2: staff recipients, maybe the ability to buy food at all

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Speaker 2: or go hungry potentially, you know, between those things and paraffs,

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Speaker 2: you know, I mean, we talk about all the fuck

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Speaker 2: ups that Democrats make and we'll talk about them some

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Speaker 2: of them today. But like Republicans are not exactly game

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Speaker 2: theory optimal political strategists either, or at least or at

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Speaker 2: least Trump isn't right, you know, on some level the

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Speaker 2: kind of progressive critique the Republics want to cut benefits

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Speaker 2: for the poor in order to pay for tax cuts

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Speaker 2: for the rich. I mean that's like directionally true for

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Speaker 2: a long time. You know, it's true of Trump. But

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Speaker 2: you know, if you fuck with people's benefits. And by

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Speaker 2: the way, we're in an environment now where Trump likes

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Speaker 2: to scariotype Democrats as being poor, the ones who would

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Speaker 2: need food stamps. Again, the audience should know, I'm not

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Speaker 2: super woke, Right, this often is racially coded messaging. Right,

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Speaker 2: you look at the data, then probably a pretty even

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Speaker 2: mix of Democratic and Republican groups that are receiving these benefits. Right,

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Speaker 2: Trump actually does quite well with poorer white voters. Trump

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Speaker 2: also does fairly well with minorities who didn't attend college

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Speaker 2: and things like that, and so so that was a

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Speaker 2: big political opportunity, yeah for Democrats, and then they just

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Speaker 2: they just caved. You know, I'm busted out of my

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Speaker 2: poker tournament, and like oh, the shutdowns over, Maybe I'll

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Speaker 2: make my flights back and forth around the country. But Maria,

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Speaker 2: what do you think.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I was looking at a lot of the

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Speaker 1: number over kind of the last week, and I noticed

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Speaker 1: two things. One kind of when you see the New

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Speaker 1: York election, it seems like mcdonnie was able to make

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Speaker 1: inroads into a lot of the areas that had gone

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Speaker 1: redder in the presidential election and that had gone Trump, right,

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Speaker 1: So it seems that he was actually successful in appealing

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Speaker 1: to some of that base to vote Democratic, which to

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Speaker 1: me spoke of the fact that you know, there were

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Speaker 1: people were starting to get fed up, right, some of

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Speaker 1: those lower income areas that had been heavily pro Trump

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Speaker 1: were starting to kind of feel the pain of everything

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Speaker 1: that's been going on. And as you pointed out in

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Speaker 1: your newsletter, and I think this is true, some of

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Speaker 1: the messaging of the Democrats during the shutdown hadn't really

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Speaker 1: been landing, like the Affordable Care Act, right, the healthcare

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Speaker 1: It should be landing, right, you should want healthcare. But

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Speaker 1: you know, because people are very in the moment and

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Speaker 1: they don't always You and I are you know, very

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Speaker 1: much online and kind of pay attention to this, but

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Speaker 1: a lot of people they're not online and they're not

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Speaker 1: really listening, and they're like, I don't know what the

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Speaker 1: Affordable Care Act is, you know, like I don't care.

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Speaker 1: My payments still seem the same. They don't realize, oh,

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Speaker 1: this really might be affecting me. So the messaging wasn't

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Speaker 1: exactly landing, but with the combination of you know, tariffs

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Speaker 1: finally starting to kind of play out in the pricing,

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Speaker 1: and Snap, which does immediately affect you, right, It affects

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Speaker 1: your ability to get food, It affects your ability to

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Speaker 1: get benefits right now. It's kind of it's a very emotional,

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Speaker 1: very kind of visceral experience that caused.

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Speaker 2: If you look at Google searches for Snap benefits, they

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Speaker 2: have this weird cyclicality based on I don't you know,

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Speaker 2: I've not been I'm like Sam some my loft. I

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Speaker 2: don't know the timing of when they're released, but you

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Speaker 2: can see syclicality that indicates people are searching for information

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Speaker 2: about whereas the grocery store can go with with food

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Speaker 2: stamps the moment they receive yeah, those benefits and things

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Speaker 2: like that, right, and so it's literally eating is about

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Speaker 2: the most visceral exactly exactly that one can imagine healthcare

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Speaker 2: maybe you know, one absolute degree removed from that. In

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Speaker 2: the Suden said, it's hopefully mostly preventative, or IF's not preventive,

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Speaker 2: and it's things that you don't realize until you have

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Speaker 2: a problem.

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Speaker 1: Right, But food is something that we really care about,

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Speaker 1: right obviously, and now this was kind of a double

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Speaker 1: whammy because food prices are going up. You know, I

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Speaker 1: don't care what Trump is saying that the prices are down,

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Speaker 1: It's not true. Right, we know that inflation is actually

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Speaker 1: hitting kind of that angle, and we know that Snap

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Speaker 1: benefits where finally, you know, people didn't know there was

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Speaker 1: a lot of uncertainty. We also talk a lot on

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Speaker 1: the show about how the human mind really doesn't like uncertainty.

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Speaker 1: So it's horrible. Can you imagine if you have a

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Speaker 1: family to feed and you're in limbo, You're like, I

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Speaker 1: don't know if I'm going to get my Snap benefits, right, Like,

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Speaker 1: I actually have no idea if they're going to come

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Speaker 1: this weekend. I don't know if I'll be able to

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Speaker 1: afford my meal. Like, I don't know what's going to happen.

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Speaker 1: And it keeps going back and forth, and they release

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Speaker 1: funds and they don't release funds, and people, you know,

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Speaker 1: this is a moment where you can really appeal to

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Speaker 1: people and be like, see, you know, this is actually

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Speaker 1: because people also were you know, I think about equally

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Speaker 1: blaming and correct me if I'm wrong Democrats and Republicans

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Speaker 1: for the shutdown. It wasn't like Republicans were getting all

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Speaker 1: the blame. But with the Snap benefits, it's very clear

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Speaker 1: that there are people who are saying, hey, you know,

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Speaker 1: release the money. We need to pay, we need to

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Speaker 1: get money to the families. And you have Trump saying no, right,

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Speaker 1: It's actually he's saying, no, I don't want to release

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Speaker 1: this money. I don't want the Snap benefits going out. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, Nate, who knows what in the world he

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Speaker 1: was thinking. But what we do know is that the

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Speaker 1: effect of this was felt.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: The approval ratings were going down, and I think that

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Speaker 1: this helped kind of the momentum, the victorious moment of

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Speaker 1: the Democrats saying, you know, because this all happened at

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Speaker 1: the same time, right, there was this coalition.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think Democrats have the problem, the same

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Speaker 2: problem that Marie and I do, which is that, you know,

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Speaker 2: most people who comment on politics are are fairly privileged, right,

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Speaker 2: and in certain ways, it's the privilege to talk about

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Speaker 2: abstract concepts like creeping authoritarianism or long term impacts like

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Speaker 2: climate change, for example, as opposed to the visceral can

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Speaker 2: I eat today? If I get into a car accident,

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Speaker 2: do I have insurance to cover my you know, broken

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Speaker 2: leg or whatever else? Right, those things are a bit

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Speaker 2: more visceral. And I think, you know, one of the

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Speaker 2: problems you had with the shutdown is that, like so,

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Speaker 2: the a sensible basis for it was healthcare. Right. If

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Speaker 2: you look for Google searches for the Affordable Care Act, right,

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Speaker 2: they were up a little bit, but they're they're tiny

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Speaker 2: as compared to searches for snap benefits or a shutdown,

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Speaker 2: or other news stories that came up, like the no

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Speaker 2: King's protests or even even the White House renovation, slash destruction,

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Speaker 2: construction of the East wing, creation of a new ballroom.

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Speaker 2: You know, all those things have a much bigger registry.

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Speaker 2: And I think because there are some Democrats like alexandriro

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Speaker 2: Kazak Cortez or Bernie Sanders that are very effective on healthcare,

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Speaker 2: a lot of Democrats are going TV want to talk

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Speaker 2: about these kind of more abstract themes instead. That's kind

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Speaker 2: of what the democratic we spelt like the blogosphere, right,

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Speaker 2: you know, democratic podcasters, substackers, social media personalities, cable news guests. Right,

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Speaker 2: you know, they are usually talking about these abstract things

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Speaker 2: democracy and so forth, right and so like, you know,

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Speaker 2: it wasn't quite like democrats hearts were rellion the message either.

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Speaker 2: And I mean there are a couple of stories by

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Speaker 2: democrats cave right. You know. One story involves we're afraid

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Speaker 2: about the tangible impact on people and we are the

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Speaker 2: kind heart of people. We can't make people suffer for

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Speaker 2: this thing. That's not going to work anyway. Right, it's

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Speaker 2: once story. You know. Story number two is that ultimately

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Speaker 2: that if you listen to Maria and I are read

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Speaker 2: by writing a silver bulletin, you know, recognized early on

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Speaker 2: that like a lot of this comes down to you,

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Speaker 2: are you willing to have Republicans blow up the filibuster? Right?

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Speaker 2: If you do that, you don't need any Democratic votes. Right,

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Speaker 2: you have majorities in both chambers of Congress, and you know,

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Speaker 2: reportedly there were some centators who didn't want to go

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Speaker 2: that far. And then they're just kind of general risk aversion,

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Speaker 2: you know. So it's kind of the flip. You know.

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Speaker 2: On the one hand, the public assumes, perhaps correctly, and

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Speaker 2: that it's Republicans who like to not pay for a

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Speaker 2: shit that helps working class people and shut government shit down. Right.

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Speaker 2: So on the one hand, that might create I don't

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Speaker 2: know if you call it a bias, but create like

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Speaker 2: kind of the presumption among the public that like, if

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Speaker 2: things aren't functioning well in government, then and it's some

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Speaker 2: type of policy choice opposed to incompetence or whatever, right,

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Speaker 2: then that is a Republican choice, right, and that message

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Speaker 2: is pretty hard for them to overcome, especially when Trump

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Speaker 2: is saying about things like snap, benefit's no, we don't

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Speaker 2: want those right. You know. The other hand, like if

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Speaker 2: they're big like softies who are going to like cave

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Speaker 2: on everything, then then okay, then that creates a predictable outcome.

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Speaker 2: You're gonna cave at some point, and what consequence does

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Speaker 2: that have? I mean, Maria, you know, since we've been

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Speaker 2: out here playing poker, yea, let's let me go for

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Speaker 2: a poker two to oh one kind of more detailed analogy. Right,

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Speaker 2: there's times when let's say I'm playing a tough player. Right,

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Speaker 2: the tough opponent raises, you know I'm playing you. I'm

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Speaker 2: playing you, and I just feel like you're owning me today.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, you know, I just got your number today.

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Speaker 2: You raise. I'm defending my blind right, and I have

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Speaker 2: a hand that I know according to the computers. According

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Speaker 2: to game theory, defense right is a is a thin

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Speaker 2: defend for example, a king for offsuit or something right.

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Speaker 2: And the way that you realize money with that hand is, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: sometimes you thought the king or a pair of fos

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Speaker 2: a hold on. But it's also stuff like sometimes you're

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Speaker 2: supposed to turn it into a bluff. Sometimes you're supposed

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Speaker 2: to call down really thin right, someone's supposed to hope

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Speaker 2: that Maria is a turn from betting, and like, and

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Speaker 2: all those ways to realize the value of the hand

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Speaker 2: are difficult and require a lot of skill and discipline

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Speaker 2: on every other street.

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Speaker 1: Right, yes, And I'm just gonna I'm just gonna caveat

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Speaker 1: this because for people who don't play poker, yes to

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Speaker 1: kind of one, yes to a one for kind of

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Speaker 1: and applying it to kind of the broader political thing

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Speaker 1: like big caveat in poker. Just to remind you, you

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Speaker 1: do not actually have to have the best hand to win, right.

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Speaker 1: It is the only game where you can win with

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Speaker 1: the worst hand if you play it correctly, if you

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Speaker 1: execute the strategy correctly. And yes, some of it is

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Speaker 1: just outright bluffing, but it's also putting your opponent to

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Speaker 1: a to a hard kind of test when they might

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Speaker 1: have a decent hand but not a great hand. So

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Speaker 1: it's all about being able to figure out how do

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Speaker 1: I exert pressure correctly? So your King four offsuit. For

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Speaker 1: people listening, they're like, wait, I thought that was a

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Speaker 1: bad hand. Yes, it is a bad hand. However, there

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Speaker 1: are reasons why we might still want to play it

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Speaker 1: if we have kind of this future game tree in

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Speaker 1: mind and we are confident of our abilities to be

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Speaker 1: able to execute that correctly. Please continuate. So you've defended King.

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Speaker 2: Four, and now you get a good price from the pot, right,

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Speaker 2: you have good pot odds. If let me just you know,

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Speaker 2: if you are not willing to make those thin call

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Speaker 2: downs and creative bluffs from time to time, then the

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Speaker 2: hand is not profitable to defend. Just if everything goes right, yeah, now,

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Speaker 2: and then you hit two pair or make trips or

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Speaker 2: some weird straight with the four or something. Right, it

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Speaker 2: just happened enough just by the time when you have

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Speaker 2: a better hammer rear right, you know. In other words,

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Speaker 2: if you are not willing to be strategic and exercise

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Speaker 2: your options and adapts, circumstances just unfold, right, then just

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Speaker 2: don't do it, yeah, because like you're not gonna like,

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Speaker 2: you know, this thing about Snap. I mean, people kind

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Speaker 2: of mischaracter you know, all these kind of we're partisan

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Speaker 2: Democrats who are like we're waiting the checkdown. It's like,

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Speaker 2: I don't really think you're wanting to checkdown because at

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Speaker 2: first Tripschoo writing didn't really decline at all. We talked

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Speaker 2: about it on the show, right, and then Snap when

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Speaker 2: there were some of the stuff there was a white

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Speaker 2: House and no Kings. But like it seems based on

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Speaker 2: the persistence of Google searches for Snap and the persistence

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Speaker 2: of that in the dialogue and the discourse and the

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Speaker 2: real world impact of it, that like that was a

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Speaker 2: real gift to Democrats and you know, about the best

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Speaker 2: possible turn of events they could have, and they still cave,

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Speaker 2: which means that like their whole strategy was really miss

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Speaker 2: gotten in the first place, if something goes well for

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Speaker 2: you and you still don't know how to play right

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Speaker 2: or still give up, and that means you're already then

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Speaker 2: close to having.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, imagine, imagine, you know, to continue nate your poker

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Speaker 1: analogy since you started it. Imagine that you did decide,

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Speaker 1: you know, okay, you know what, I'm going to defend this.

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Speaker 1: I'm not quite sure why, but I am. And then

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Speaker 1: the flop comes, you know, king three six something like that,

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Speaker 1: so you have top pair, and then you know, you check,

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Speaker 1: I bet big, you call. Basically you end up folding

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Speaker 1: the king anyway, right, and you you end up folding

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Speaker 1: the king on a board that doesn't really change at

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Speaker 1: all from the flop, and you already or let's just

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Speaker 1: let's say you made a pair of fours and there's

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Speaker 1: nothing else. Let's just imagine that you actually did well right,

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Speaker 1: and your hand became something much more playable than it

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Speaker 1: was originally, and yet you still end up bending to

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Speaker 1: pressure because you're like, well, Maria's betting so big that

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Speaker 1: she probably has a better king, right, she probably has

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Speaker 1: you know, an even better kicker. Kicker is the second

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Speaker 1: card for people who don't play poker. You know, she

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Speaker 1: probably has like King ten or something like that, I'm

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Speaker 1: just going to fold just in case. Well, then what

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Speaker 1: the fuck were you doing defunding the king for if

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Speaker 1: you're either going you know, if you're not actually able

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Speaker 1: to navigate those situations. And it seems to me that

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Speaker 1: over and over what Democrats have done is have these

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Speaker 1: principled positions where they're like, you know, we can't do this,

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Speaker 1: and I'm you know, great, you know, I also don't

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Speaker 1: think we should be taking away health care from people.

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Speaker 1: You know, kudos, this is a great thing to stand

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Speaker 1: up for. But then why the hell did you do it.

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Speaker 1: If you're going to say, okay, well fine, you can

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Speaker 1: take away the health care as long as you you know,

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Speaker 1: pay them food benefits right now, well, then why did

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Speaker 1: we even get you know, if you didn't even have

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Speaker 1: a shutdown, if you capitulate on everything, then we wouldn't

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Speaker 1: even be in this snap situation or this airline drama

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Speaker 1: or any of this. And the Republicans get everything they

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Speaker 1: wanted originally anyway. So it just seems like, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you already know that, then why in the world.

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Speaker 1: Then it means that your strategy was not principled. Because

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Speaker 1: you are stepping back from all of those principles, right

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Speaker 1: Like if you were saying we're the nice party that

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Speaker 1: just doesn't want people to get hurt, well, you know,

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Speaker 1: then sometimes you have to take immediate pain. And it

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Speaker 1: seems like they're not able to do that.

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Speaker 2: And we'll be right back after this break.

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Speaker 1: So back to kind of this broader question of how

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Speaker 1: is the Democratic Party doing now? I'm in a you know,

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Speaker 1: as I said last week, it was such an amazing

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Speaker 1: moment where you could see an amazing moment if you're

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Speaker 1: a Democrat, where you could see all sorts of different

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Speaker 1: kinds of candidates when right in different places. It's not

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Speaker 1: like the progressives. One, yes, Mamdani won in New York,

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Speaker 1: but much more moderate candidates won in you know, New Jersey,

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Speaker 1: in other states, and you know, people, it seemed like

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Speaker 1: there were people coming together to say, Okay, you know what,

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Speaker 1: we're getting fed up and there is some Democratic momentum

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Speaker 1: and this might hold through the midterms and if you

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Speaker 1: can keep it going, this might have all sorts of

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Speaker 1: good things for the party. I think actually Nancy Pelosis

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Speaker 1: saying she's not going to run again was also a

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Speaker 1: good thing for the party to say, Okay, we need

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Speaker 1: some younger blood, we need some of these these people

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Speaker 1: who probably shouldn't have been running for reelection already last cycle.

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Speaker 1: It's good that they're finally stepping down. There were a

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Speaker 1: lot of good things, and now, you know what, it's

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Speaker 1: kind of in some ways, Nate, and maybe this is

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Speaker 1: a little bit harsh. What they did over the weekend

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Speaker 1: seems like a little bit of a fuck you to

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Speaker 1: the people who kind of banded together and stood by

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Speaker 1: them and said, you know what, we can actually affect

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Speaker 1: change and then said, eh, you know what, We're just

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Speaker 1: gonna We're just gonna anyway. At least that's what it felt.

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Speaker 2: Like to be. Look, we haven't mentioned the chuck of

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Speaker 2: Chuck and Nancy Chum.

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Speaker 1: He, by the way, was opposed to He was one

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Speaker 1: of the voices that was that it was opposed to

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Speaker 1: ending the shutdown.

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Speaker 2: Correct, he voted against it. But what the party leader

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Speaker 2: does is theatrics, right, it's theatrics. And fair enough, Look,

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Speaker 2: if he if he couldn't control his caucus after this

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Speaker 2: very good turn of events, then he should resign anyway,

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Speaker 2: because he has no right.

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Speaker 1: So so yes, it either means that he is disingenuous,

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Speaker 1: and he was okay with these votes that are ending

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Speaker 1: the shutdown, and he just wanted to publicly say no,

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Speaker 1: I'm not or it means that he's ineffective. One of

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Speaker 1: the two, and either one is not a particularly good thing.

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Speaker 2: Remember he didn't shut the government down last March at

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Speaker 2: a time when it was a lower boil for democratic disarray.

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Speaker 2: I guess. I mean, you know, look, when you're the

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Speaker 2: op position party, in some ways, there's never that much

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Speaker 2: a rake. You don't really have to do that much. Right,

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Speaker 2: But you know, Schumber didn't command any confidence in his caucus. Right,

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Speaker 2: He's often very unpopular even among Democrats. A florality of

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Speaker 2: Democrats in the recent PW Research poll have a negative

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Speaker 2: opinion of Schumer. Right, Like, all these things to me

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Speaker 2: suggests he's not tenable as party leader. Like I don't

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Speaker 2: understand why. I mean, actually I do kind of you know,

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Speaker 2: one reason why you might have someone to replace Schumer's

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Speaker 2: because like it's kind of a bad job. It's kind

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Speaker 2: of a terrible job. You're going to piss people off

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Speaker 2: no matter what. But you know, look, here are in

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Speaker 2: my view, kind of the the long term stakes, right,

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Speaker 2: which is that do you kind of trigger a a

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Speaker 2: mini kind of Tea party movement among Democratic voters, where

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Speaker 2: where if they don't do kind of what the activist

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Speaker 2: base once right, then they're voting office in primaries.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 2: That is a powerful extentive. It's a very powerful for Republicans.

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Speaker 2: You know, you always hear stories, oh privately, Republicans are

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Speaker 2: very reasonable, but they're terrified at being primary.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 2: I kind of halfway by that. I think sometimes it's

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Speaker 2: it's spinning through reporters. It's probably mostly true most of

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Speaker 2: the time. Right. You know, if Democrats certificate that dynamic

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Speaker 2: is it's you know, a that makes leadership even more inflexible.

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Speaker 2: If you think the base is smart about its demands,

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Speaker 2: then maybe that's fine. Right, I'm not sure. I think

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Speaker 2: they're particularly smart, irrational about kind of the kind of

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Speaker 2: things they want Congress to do. Right. But also, in effect,

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Speaker 2: what type of candidates win. The incumbency advantage is diminishing

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Speaker 2: matters less than it once did. At the same time,

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Speaker 2: more experienced candidates do tend to win office more often.

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Speaker 2: At a big point of controversy in my research, I

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Speaker 2: spent a lot of time on this. More moderate candidates,

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Speaker 2: on average win office more often, other things being equal,

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Speaker 2: all those qualifiers there are important, right. You know you

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Speaker 2: have in Maine Graham Platner, who was outsider. Have we

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Speaker 2: talked about good old Grammy. I think some of the

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Speaker 2: name of the controversial reddit posts and tattoos and tattoosgically

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Speaker 2: happens to be associated with the with a certain pancer

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Speaker 2: division of the army fully known as the Nazis. You know,

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Speaker 2: probably not, you're cover it up. You cover it up.

425
00:23:42,764 --> 00:23:45,644
Speaker 1: After how many years, after twenty years or the years to.

426
00:23:48,524 --> 00:23:51,804
Speaker 2: One hundred percent by that he was on some drunk

427
00:23:51,804 --> 00:23:54,204
Speaker 2: and sojourn in Croatia when he got the statoo and

428
00:23:54,444 --> 00:23:58,164
Speaker 2: called crossbones. It kind of looks so cool man. You know,

429
00:23:58,404 --> 00:24:00,404
Speaker 2: if you have it on your body, you're probably gonna

430
00:24:00,444 --> 00:24:03,724
Speaker 2: know what it is. Yes, after years? Yeah, after whatever?

431
00:24:03,964 --> 00:24:07,724
Speaker 1: Yeap. Or this is like the Schumer question. Either you

432
00:24:07,764 --> 00:24:10,364
Speaker 1: know what it is, which says something very important about you,

433
00:24:10,724 --> 00:24:13,284
Speaker 1: or you never bother to figure out what it is,

434
00:24:13,524 --> 00:24:17,764
Speaker 1: which also says something very important about you. And neither

435
00:24:17,924 --> 00:24:22,044
Speaker 1: one is something that you particularly want in somebody who's

436
00:24:22,084 --> 00:24:23,124
Speaker 1: going to be representing you.

437
00:24:23,364 --> 00:24:26,444
Speaker 2: Yeah, but like a tart of you know, he's running

438
00:24:26,444 --> 00:24:30,084
Speaker 2: against Janet Mills, who is the two term governor of Maine,

439
00:24:30,084 --> 00:24:32,004
Speaker 2: seventy seven years old. You know, couldn't really be a

440
00:24:32,004 --> 00:24:35,364
Speaker 2: bigger contrast between the kind of old safe establishment choice

441
00:24:35,884 --> 00:24:39,004
Speaker 2: and this new kind of thing right tighter' is like, oh,

442
00:24:39,044 --> 00:24:40,884
Speaker 2: I won't turn into John Fetterman. You're someone who shifts

443
00:24:40,924 --> 00:24:43,084
Speaker 2: their ideology all the time. It's like, well, actually you

444
00:24:43,204 --> 00:24:47,484
Speaker 2: just did you know? So anyway, they hear another he

445
00:24:47,484 --> 00:24:49,364
Speaker 2: would be fun to get a beer with. That much

446
00:24:49,404 --> 00:24:50,084
Speaker 2: seems to be.

447
00:24:50,244 --> 00:24:52,284
Speaker 1: It would be interesting to get a beer with, that's

448
00:24:52,364 --> 00:24:54,924
Speaker 1: for sure, and he could probably drink me under the

449
00:24:54,964 --> 00:24:59,324
Speaker 1: table and get some tattoos as a result. But anyhow,

450
00:24:59,844 --> 00:25:02,044
Speaker 1: I think that what you know, that the broader point

451
00:25:02,124 --> 00:25:04,524
Speaker 1: is like what is yeah, what does the face of

452
00:25:04,564 --> 00:25:08,124
Speaker 1: the party look like? And you know, the moderate candidates

453
00:25:08,124 --> 00:25:11,044
Speaker 1: there is all thing being equal. I think the data

454
00:25:11,324 --> 00:25:13,964
Speaker 1: I've seen it too, and Nate obviously, like you said,

455
00:25:14,004 --> 00:25:17,204
Speaker 1: you've worked with it. That that does make a difference.

456
00:25:17,284 --> 00:25:19,564
Speaker 1: But there is also kind of this I think movement,

457
00:25:19,844 --> 00:25:23,644
Speaker 1: and I think this is inspired by Biden for you know,

458
00:25:23,804 --> 00:25:28,404
Speaker 1: younger candidates right now, because oh yeah, so this in

459
00:25:28,484 --> 00:25:31,324
Speaker 1: main like the fact that she's seventy seven like that

460
00:25:31,404 --> 00:25:34,404
Speaker 1: also plays into it, Right, I think people are fed up.

461
00:25:34,404 --> 00:25:37,044
Speaker 1: They're like, we do we do not want another one

462
00:25:37,044 --> 00:25:40,884
Speaker 1: of these debacle debates, right, we would much rather have

463
00:25:41,004 --> 00:25:44,284
Speaker 1: someone even though experience matters, We would much rather have

464
00:25:44,324 --> 00:25:48,364
Speaker 1: someone who can at least, you know, be vibrant and

465
00:25:48,924 --> 00:25:51,644
Speaker 1: more youthful. And you know, it doesn't always have to

466
00:25:51,684 --> 00:25:55,004
Speaker 1: be a thirty four year old. But let's stop nominating

467
00:25:55,044 --> 00:25:56,964
Speaker 1: people in their late seventies and eighties.

468
00:25:57,604 --> 00:26:00,764
Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I mean there are signs that you know,

469
00:26:00,844 --> 00:26:03,924
Speaker 2: on lots of political issues, there's a a kind of

470
00:26:03,964 --> 00:26:07,044
Speaker 2: divide that cuts about midway through kind of millennials, where

471
00:26:07,084 --> 00:26:10,844
Speaker 2: people who kind of grew up in an age where

472
00:26:10,884 --> 00:26:14,844
Speaker 2: they were on their phones from early childhood. Right, Like,

473
00:26:14,884 --> 00:26:19,244
Speaker 2: that's that's quite different, you know what I mean my age.

474
00:26:19,244 --> 00:26:21,204
Speaker 2: It's kind of like, well, you got computers early in

475
00:26:21,244 --> 00:26:23,564
Speaker 2: life and then phones when you were in college, right, Like,

476
00:26:23,604 --> 00:26:25,484
Speaker 2: I think technology is behind a lot of these shifts.

477
00:26:25,524 --> 00:26:27,524
Speaker 2: I mean, probably not that uncommon, but like, look, you've

478
00:26:27,564 --> 00:26:31,484
Speaker 2: had you had Democrats dominate. Ironically, Bernie Sanders is older

479
00:26:31,484 --> 00:26:34,364
Speaker 2: than Hillary Clinton, right, I think older than Joe Biden

480
00:26:34,404 --> 00:26:36,604
Speaker 2: by half a year two if I have that, right,

481
00:26:37,844 --> 00:26:40,644
Speaker 2: And but he was a choice of the youth, right

482
00:26:40,684 --> 00:26:44,164
Speaker 2: you'd go to I went to Rally's in New Hampshire's

483
00:26:44,204 --> 00:26:48,844
Speaker 2: your reporter, and you know, I saw Hillary Clinton speak

484
00:26:48,844 --> 00:26:51,284
Speaker 2: at some college and like she was talking about the

485
00:26:51,404 --> 00:26:54,604
Speaker 2: Vietnam War, and shit, that fucking these college students. This

486
00:26:54,684 --> 00:26:56,804
Speaker 2: is now. I don't care about twelve years ago, don't

487
00:26:57,124 --> 00:26:58,484
Speaker 2: don't know where care about.

488
00:26:58,324 --> 00:27:00,684
Speaker 1: Right, Nay, I mean that was the Vietnam War. I

489
00:27:00,724 --> 00:27:04,524
Speaker 1: recently gave a talk to a financial audience and realized

490
00:27:04,644 --> 00:27:07,364
Speaker 1: that a lot of people in the audience not only

491
00:27:07,844 --> 00:27:11,684
Speaker 1: did not go through, but didn't realize basically that there

492
00:27:11,844 --> 00:27:14,724
Speaker 1: was a huge crash in two thousand and eight. So

493
00:27:14,844 --> 00:27:17,884
Speaker 1: like it was I was like, oh my god, you know, right,

494
00:27:18,604 --> 00:27:22,444
Speaker 1: that is how far removed we are from. You know,

495
00:27:22,484 --> 00:27:25,844
Speaker 1: you're talking to people who are in finance and they're like, oh,

496
00:27:25,924 --> 00:27:28,484
Speaker 1: like two thousand and eight crash. You know, that's basically

497
00:27:28,524 --> 00:27:32,284
Speaker 1: like Black Friday, right, It's like the Great Depression. It's

498
00:27:33,164 --> 00:27:35,484
Speaker 1: forever ago, and I don't care and I don't really

499
00:27:35,524 --> 00:27:38,124
Speaker 1: know and what are you even talking about? But that

500
00:27:38,244 --> 00:27:40,644
Speaker 1: is one of those I mean, I'm just pointing that

501
00:27:40,684 --> 00:27:43,764
Speaker 1: out to say people's memory really is short, and we

502
00:27:43,884 --> 00:27:46,644
Speaker 1: are talking to a very new generation, and we do

503
00:27:46,724 --> 00:27:49,484
Speaker 1: need people who know how to appeal to them and

504
00:27:49,524 --> 00:27:53,884
Speaker 1: how to say words that actually resonate. That's important. That's

505
00:27:53,924 --> 00:27:55,204
Speaker 1: part of a politician's job.

506
00:27:55,964 --> 00:27:58,564
Speaker 2: Youth goes a long way, right, Like maybe you want

507
00:27:58,604 --> 00:28:02,604
Speaker 2: more Moneric ha mean, you know Cheryl and Spenberger in

508
00:28:02,764 --> 00:28:04,644
Speaker 2: New Jersey and Virginia. I know how old they are,

509
00:28:04,684 --> 00:28:07,164
Speaker 2: but they're like you know even that some you know,

510
00:28:07,204 --> 00:28:10,364
Speaker 2: even me middle age basically seems to help quite a bit, right,

511
00:28:10,404 --> 00:28:14,364
Speaker 2: and there Josh Shapiro, by the way, you know, he

512
00:28:14,444 --> 00:28:16,644
Speaker 2: was ranting about snappings. That's he understands politics. For you

513
00:28:16,684 --> 00:28:18,404
Speaker 2: what care is like fifty nine or.

514
00:28:18,764 --> 00:28:21,284
Speaker 1: But he seems to But he has youthful energy, right

515
00:28:21,844 --> 00:28:22,444
Speaker 1: he has.

516
00:28:22,964 --> 00:28:27,284
Speaker 2: You know, one could accuse him of borrowing a little

517
00:28:27,284 --> 00:28:31,404
Speaker 2: bit from the Obama cadence. I'm not gonna try to

518
00:28:31,444 --> 00:28:33,804
Speaker 2: imitate it. Maybe that will be a future silver bulletin

519
00:28:34,524 --> 00:28:37,804
Speaker 2: easter egg, right, you know, one might say Josh Shapier,

520
00:28:37,844 --> 00:28:40,244
Speaker 2: but like, but he's extremely effective. And something too is

521
00:28:40,284 --> 00:28:43,564
Speaker 2: like when you have a county who has run for

522
00:28:43,724 --> 00:28:46,804
Speaker 2: and one office before then, depending on how much they

523
00:28:46,804 --> 00:28:49,884
Speaker 2: ever performed relative to the typical numbers in their state

524
00:28:50,004 --> 00:28:52,324
Speaker 2: or district. Right. You know, again, my view is always

525
00:28:53,364 --> 00:28:55,324
Speaker 2: I'm not sure. Zilran is a great example of this

526
00:28:55,404 --> 00:28:59,924
Speaker 2: because because he ran, it's kind of another quasi democrat

527
00:28:59,964 --> 00:29:00,684
Speaker 2: former democrat.

528
00:29:00,844 --> 00:29:00,964
Speaker 3: Right.

529
00:29:02,124 --> 00:29:07,804
Speaker 2: But like, you know, anybody who performs objectively well relative

530
00:29:07,844 --> 00:29:12,884
Speaker 2: to some reasonable baseline, right, that trump's any abstract arguments

531
00:29:12,884 --> 00:29:15,644
Speaker 2: for me about moderate versus progressive or electrible or not.

532
00:29:15,764 --> 00:29:20,364
Speaker 2: You know, Bernie Sanders until fairly recently actually won by

533
00:29:20,404 --> 00:29:24,084
Speaker 2: wider to Democrats presidential margins in Vermont. That's changed lately,

534
00:29:24,124 --> 00:29:26,924
Speaker 2: but he has a good long run, right. Elizabeth Warren

535
00:29:27,684 --> 00:29:33,604
Speaker 2: underperformed routinely democratic presidential margins. Right. To me, that is

536
00:29:33,844 --> 00:29:37,444
Speaker 2: a difference between a very good politician, so you wanted

537
00:29:37,524 --> 00:29:40,164
Speaker 2: up Bernie right, for him to get socialism so much

538
00:29:40,164 --> 00:29:43,604
Speaker 2: into the mainstream right versus I think a very bad politician. Right,

539
00:29:43,684 --> 00:29:48,524
Speaker 2: maybe not a bad politician, a bad after retail aspects

540
00:29:48,644 --> 00:29:52,324
Speaker 2: of electoral office. I think Elizaeth Warren is surely a

541
00:29:52,444 --> 00:29:56,604
Speaker 2: very smart person, right, an articulate but like but not

542
00:29:56,804 --> 00:29:59,244
Speaker 2: very appealing. And there are lots of gender based and

543
00:29:59,324 --> 00:30:03,604
Speaker 2: other right, But absolutely, that difference is a big one, you.

544
00:30:03,524 --> 00:30:05,524
Speaker 1: Know, it is a big one. And as we talk

545
00:30:05,564 --> 00:30:07,564
Speaker 1: about a lot here, and I think that this is

546
00:30:07,684 --> 00:30:10,804
Speaker 1: really important. You need to when you have objective data points,

547
00:30:10,844 --> 00:30:13,244
Speaker 1: you need to look at them right like because we

548
00:30:13,364 --> 00:30:17,004
Speaker 1: are emotional, like we we want to say, oh, but

549
00:30:17,004 --> 00:30:19,284
Speaker 1: but when you have the objective data, right, when you

550
00:30:19,324 --> 00:30:22,324
Speaker 1: have the electoral performance, when you have the actual numbers

551
00:30:22,324 --> 00:30:24,204
Speaker 1: for who turned out, how did they turn out, who

552
00:30:24,284 --> 00:30:26,164
Speaker 1: did they vote for, what did they say? Look at

553
00:30:26,164 --> 00:30:28,844
Speaker 1: those numbers and do not dismiss them, right like, you

554
00:30:29,004 --> 00:30:32,684
Speaker 1: have data, Stop dismissing data, even if it goes against

555
00:30:32,724 --> 00:30:35,124
Speaker 1: your view of who should be popular and who shouldn't.

556
00:30:35,444 --> 00:30:38,324
Speaker 1: And so you know, I have not been a Bernie

557
00:30:38,364 --> 00:30:44,644
Speaker 1: Sanders fan quite a quite frequently I am at odds

558
00:30:44,684 --> 00:30:47,124
Speaker 1: with Bernie Sanders. But I cannot deny that he is

559
00:30:47,124 --> 00:30:51,404
Speaker 1: an incredibly effective politician, right, and that people who say, oh,

560
00:30:51,564 --> 00:30:54,884
Speaker 1: we should dismiss him don't aren't looking right. If you

561
00:30:54,924 --> 00:30:56,764
Speaker 1: don't like him, it doesn't mean he's not effective.

562
00:30:57,364 --> 00:30:58,804
Speaker 2: Can I make what more poker analogy here?

563
00:30:58,844 --> 00:31:02,204
Speaker 1: I mean yes, absolutely, this is risky business poker away

564
00:31:03,404 --> 00:31:06,684
Speaker 1: premise of the show, this is our show. Note you

565
00:31:06,724 --> 00:31:08,564
Speaker 1: can make a poker analogy.

566
00:31:09,404 --> 00:31:11,484
Speaker 2: Oca players who don't have a long term game plan

567
00:31:11,564 --> 00:31:13,724
Speaker 2: or aren't very experienced. What they do is they just

568
00:31:14,124 --> 00:31:16,444
Speaker 2: they call too much, right, They're not just hitting the action.

569
00:31:16,564 --> 00:31:18,964
Speaker 2: And like that's a theme here too, right, Like you know,

570
00:31:18,964 --> 00:31:21,684
Speaker 2: when Democrats kind of replace Biden, I guess they got

571
00:31:21,724 --> 00:31:23,844
Speaker 2: so bad they couldn't really have any other option, right,

572
00:31:23,884 --> 00:31:27,204
Speaker 2: But like, but you know, the kind of compromise was

573
00:31:27,884 --> 00:31:31,604
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris and like sometimes and that was not the

574
00:31:31,644 --> 00:31:35,604
Speaker 2: worst decision that Democrats made. Renominating Biden in the first

575
00:31:35,604 --> 00:31:37,804
Speaker 2: place was a bigger disaster than that in the predicate

576
00:31:37,884 --> 00:31:39,844
Speaker 2: to it in a lot of ways. Right, But like,

577
00:31:40,084 --> 00:31:43,804
Speaker 2: you know, if you don't have a a a game plan,

578
00:31:43,924 --> 00:31:45,604
Speaker 2: you wind up calling too much of poker, which means

579
00:31:45,644 --> 00:31:48,524
Speaker 2: the opponent gets to dictate the action all the time,

580
00:31:48,644 --> 00:31:50,604
Speaker 2: and you're like, oh shit, what do I do now?

581
00:31:50,644 --> 00:31:52,244
Speaker 2: What do I do now? What I do now? Right?

582
00:31:52,684 --> 00:31:55,884
Speaker 2: And to take boulder action, a bolder action sometimes means folding.

583
00:31:56,044 --> 00:31:58,684
Speaker 2: Sometimes it means turning the patre or something, or turning

584
00:31:58,724 --> 00:32:01,244
Speaker 2: down and oppertun you think it's a losing battle, right

585
00:32:01,404 --> 00:32:02,684
Speaker 2: if you don't have it more of a long term

586
00:32:02,684 --> 00:32:05,164
Speaker 2: game plan. And you know, again, if you look at

587
00:32:05,204 --> 00:32:09,404
Speaker 2: the messaging on the shutdown, some of it is on healthcare,

588
00:32:09,604 --> 00:32:11,684
Speaker 2: some of it is on authoritarianism, some of it's on

589
00:32:11,764 --> 00:32:14,564
Speaker 2: SNAP benefits, some of it's just kind of blame defraying

590
00:32:14,684 --> 00:32:19,764
Speaker 2: or airlines or whatever else. Right, you know, that reflects

591
00:32:19,764 --> 00:32:26,284
Speaker 2: a lack of an actual consensus on what you're fighting for,

592
00:32:26,444 --> 00:32:30,084
Speaker 2: and it's like kind of leadership's job to firm up

593
00:32:30,124 --> 00:32:34,244
Speaker 2: that consensus. I think right to say, look, if we

594
00:32:34,324 --> 00:32:36,764
Speaker 2: do this, we will achieve we'll have a chance of

595
00:32:36,804 --> 00:32:40,764
Speaker 2: achieving objective X. And here are the way it seems

596
00:32:40,804 --> 00:32:43,084
Speaker 2: to go wrong because like nothing here again, nothing in

597
00:32:43,124 --> 00:32:46,804
Speaker 2: the shutdown was really surprising except that kind of Trump

598
00:32:46,884 --> 00:32:48,844
Speaker 2: picked this battle over Snap when there's a lot of

599
00:32:49,244 --> 00:32:52,764
Speaker 2: ability for the president the executive branch to determine what's

600
00:32:52,764 --> 00:32:55,564
Speaker 2: open and what's not right. It picked to fight turned

601
00:32:55,604 --> 00:32:57,804
Speaker 2: back badly for him, and I pressed stilldn'take advantage of that.

602
00:32:57,804 --> 00:32:59,244
Speaker 2: Maybe I've got the shutdown, But do you have any

603
00:32:59,244 --> 00:33:00,764
Speaker 2: any thoughts before we return to New York?

604
00:33:01,564 --> 00:33:04,004
Speaker 1: Now I think we're on the same page here, where

605
00:33:04,164 --> 00:33:07,964
Speaker 1: like this is just a failure, a failure of strategy,

606
00:33:08,004 --> 00:33:11,204
Speaker 1: a failure of long term stetrategic thinking. And to kind

607
00:33:11,244 --> 00:33:14,404
Speaker 1: of close the loop on your poker analogy, Nate. You know,

608
00:33:14,444 --> 00:33:18,164
Speaker 1: a lot of what happens with these passive players is,

609
00:33:18,444 --> 00:33:21,204
Speaker 1: you know, you take the passive route, You kind of

610
00:33:21,244 --> 00:33:25,404
Speaker 1: go the way of inertia, You avoid risks because you

611
00:33:25,444 --> 00:33:29,484
Speaker 1: think that's the actual risk free way of playing. When

612
00:33:29,524 --> 00:33:32,124
Speaker 1: you look down, you realize you don't have chips left. Right,

613
00:33:32,164 --> 00:33:34,684
Speaker 1: you have so few chips because you've put yourself in

614
00:33:34,724 --> 00:33:37,084
Speaker 1: all these positions, and then you're forced to take a

615
00:33:37,084 --> 00:33:40,684
Speaker 1: suboptimal risk. Right. Then you're actually put in a position

616
00:33:41,004 --> 00:33:43,524
Speaker 1: where you are forced to play a hand that you

617
00:33:43,564 --> 00:33:46,164
Speaker 1: don't actually want to play, or take a spot. You

618
00:33:46,164 --> 00:33:48,124
Speaker 1: don't want a spot because otherwise you are going to

619
00:33:48,124 --> 00:33:51,564
Speaker 1: go bust. Right, you have put yourself into a corner

620
00:33:51,724 --> 00:33:54,204
Speaker 1: where you have to actually make an incredibly risky play.

621
00:33:54,244 --> 00:33:55,884
Speaker 1: You have to go all in for your tournament life,

622
00:33:55,924 --> 00:33:58,004
Speaker 1: which is the riskiest thing you can do, and you're

623
00:33:58,004 --> 00:34:00,364
Speaker 1: doing it not on your terms, but on the terms

624
00:34:00,364 --> 00:34:03,684
Speaker 1: that have been dictated basically by the circumstance, because you've

625
00:34:03,724 --> 00:34:06,644
Speaker 1: been so risk averse, and so that risk aversion ends

626
00:34:06,724 --> 00:34:09,884
Speaker 1: up forcing you to take a bad risk, right, a

627
00:34:09,964 --> 00:34:12,764
Speaker 1: suboptimal risk. So it turns out that it's actually not

628
00:34:12,884 --> 00:34:15,444
Speaker 1: the risk free strategy. It turns out that it's the

629
00:34:15,444 --> 00:34:18,284
Speaker 1: strategy that backs you into a corner, that forces you

630
00:34:18,324 --> 00:34:20,284
Speaker 1: to take a risk that you should not be taking

631
00:34:20,564 --> 00:34:23,404
Speaker 1: at a moment where you should not necessarily be taking it.

632
00:34:23,564 --> 00:34:25,484
Speaker 1: You're taking it for the wrong reasons. I think that's

633
00:34:25,484 --> 00:34:28,844
Speaker 1: what got us Kamala Harris right, like, that's what gets

634
00:34:28,884 --> 00:34:31,844
Speaker 1: us into a lot of these situations. And so I

635
00:34:31,844 --> 00:34:34,884
Speaker 1: think that's strategically, whether you're playing poke or playing politics,

636
00:34:35,124 --> 00:34:38,284
Speaker 1: you need to understand what the repercussions are of playing

637
00:34:38,324 --> 00:34:43,604
Speaker 1: that sort of strategy. And we'll be back right after.

638
00:34:43,404 --> 00:35:03,124
Speaker 2: This, Maria, are you prepared for Mayor mom Donnie.

639
00:35:03,484 --> 00:35:07,604
Speaker 1: Well Nate as a part time resident of New York.

640
00:35:08,084 --> 00:35:10,924
Speaker 1: I am very curious to see what Mayor Mum Donnie

641
00:35:11,164 --> 00:35:14,564
Speaker 1: will actually do. I remember you and I talking this

642
00:35:14,604 --> 00:35:17,844
Speaker 1: past summer at Aspen when we were kind of dealing

643
00:35:17,884 --> 00:35:22,484
Speaker 1: with the primaries and you know, seeing the Mom Donnie momentum.

644
00:35:22,884 --> 00:35:25,644
Speaker 1: I'm going to repeat something I said back then, which

645
00:35:25,644 --> 00:35:28,564
Speaker 1: is I'm very curious to see how all of this

646
00:35:28,724 --> 00:35:33,204
Speaker 1: campaigning is going to actually play out in practice, right,

647
00:35:33,244 --> 00:35:37,644
Speaker 1: because campaigning is not governing, and things that you can

648
00:35:37,804 --> 00:35:42,524
Speaker 1: say and do positions, you can take rhetoric that may

649
00:35:42,604 --> 00:35:46,324
Speaker 1: or may not reflect your true point of view. Is

650
00:35:46,804 --> 00:35:50,684
Speaker 1: much easier when you are not yet elected, right, and

651
00:35:50,764 --> 00:35:53,164
Speaker 1: especially when you're new, right, you're a new face. There's

652
00:35:53,204 --> 00:35:55,364
Speaker 1: all this hope, there's all this promise. There, all of

653
00:35:55,364 --> 00:35:58,884
Speaker 1: these things that people project onto you. They see what

654
00:35:58,964 --> 00:36:02,004
Speaker 1: they want to see, kind of, they project their dreams,

655
00:36:02,004 --> 00:36:04,684
Speaker 1: and they think that you can embody them if you

656
00:36:04,764 --> 00:36:08,604
Speaker 1: campaign well, which mum Donnie absolutely did, And so then

657
00:36:08,684 --> 00:36:12,164
Speaker 1: you get into all and there's political reality, right. You

658
00:36:12,204 --> 00:36:14,724
Speaker 1: have to build coalitions, you have to get shit done,

659
00:36:14,764 --> 00:36:19,204
Speaker 1: and you can't just bulldoze your way into the policies

660
00:36:19,244 --> 00:36:21,484
Speaker 1: that you want. You have to realize that, Okay, now

661
00:36:21,524 --> 00:36:23,324
Speaker 1: I'm going to have to try to be re elected

662
00:36:23,364 --> 00:36:25,684
Speaker 1: when the time comes, I need to kind of get

663
00:36:25,684 --> 00:36:29,004
Speaker 1: along with all of these different things. And so when

664
00:36:29,044 --> 00:36:32,204
Speaker 1: you are suddenly put in a position where you're governing,

665
00:36:32,364 --> 00:36:35,244
Speaker 1: it's a very different proposition from where you were when

666
00:36:35,244 --> 00:36:37,884
Speaker 1: you were campaigning. So I'm very curious to see how

667
00:36:37,924 --> 00:36:42,244
Speaker 1: he actually does in office because he's largely untested, right,

668
00:36:42,324 --> 00:36:46,044
Speaker 1: he is someone who has not had kind of this position.

669
00:36:46,804 --> 00:36:49,124
Speaker 1: Well obviously he's not been mayor of New York, but

670
00:36:49,244 --> 00:36:52,124
Speaker 1: he hasn't been a very similar position in the past.

671
00:36:52,164 --> 00:36:59,084
Speaker 2: I feel like the messaging three terms in Albany.

672
00:36:59,804 --> 00:37:02,884
Speaker 1: No, no, that's that's not what I mean. But you

673
00:37:02,924 --> 00:37:04,964
Speaker 1: know exactly what I mean, And this is what I said,

674
00:37:05,004 --> 00:37:07,924
Speaker 1: you know, back in the back in the summer, where like,

675
00:37:08,164 --> 00:37:11,924
Speaker 1: let's see how it actually plays out. And I would

676
00:37:11,924 --> 00:37:13,644
Speaker 1: love to give him the benefit of the doubt and

677
00:37:13,724 --> 00:37:16,324
Speaker 1: hope that he's going to be effective and that he'll

678
00:37:16,324 --> 00:37:20,004
Speaker 1: step back, hopefully from some of the things that are

679
00:37:20,524 --> 00:37:22,924
Speaker 1: potentially not as great for New York as a whole.

680
00:37:23,284 --> 00:37:27,164
Speaker 1: So I'm cautiously optimistic, but I have no idea. I

681
00:37:27,204 --> 00:37:29,044
Speaker 1: want to see what he does in the first six months,

682
00:37:29,044 --> 00:37:30,924
Speaker 1: in the first year. I want to see how this

683
00:37:30,964 --> 00:37:35,444
Speaker 1: plays out once he gets into office, and I'm going

684
00:37:35,484 --> 00:37:37,924
Speaker 1: to be very open minded and hope for the best.

685
00:37:38,924 --> 00:37:41,324
Speaker 2: Well you can ride the free bust to the communist postery.

686
00:37:41,444 --> 00:37:45,444
Speaker 2: Not just kidding. I've been surprised that how Hoole are eyed.

687
00:37:45,524 --> 00:37:51,604
Speaker 2: Some of my more centrist friends have been against Zora

688
00:37:51,724 --> 00:37:55,204
Speaker 2: and who seems to be like it right, young dude

689
00:37:55,204 --> 00:37:58,084
Speaker 2: who's been a little more forthright in some ways and

690
00:37:58,124 --> 00:38:01,764
Speaker 2: for example apologizing for his like the seventy two versions

691
00:38:01,764 --> 00:38:04,564
Speaker 2: of him saying like defund the police, and again, when

692
00:38:04,564 --> 00:38:05,844
Speaker 2: are we talking to this king? Like, I you know,

693
00:38:05,924 --> 00:38:09,844
Speaker 2: look after let I talked to the Subtec Live with

694
00:38:10,004 --> 00:38:13,564
Speaker 2: Ross Barkin, who's a journalist New York who also interestingly

695
00:38:14,164 --> 00:38:16,524
Speaker 2: had Zoran as his campaign Maager. He ran for office

696
00:38:16,524 --> 00:38:18,684
Speaker 2: in twenty eighteen, right, and you can listen to that. But

697
00:38:18,764 --> 00:38:22,924
Speaker 2: like but Ross was like, yeah, he actually is pretty progressive, right,

698
00:38:23,044 --> 00:38:24,884
Speaker 2: and yeah, look, I mean there were stories about how

699
00:38:24,924 --> 00:38:27,484
Speaker 2: like Zooram when he was running for like class president,

700
00:38:27,564 --> 00:38:30,844
Speaker 2: promised like free fresh squeeze like orange juice every day.

701
00:38:30,844 --> 00:38:32,484
Speaker 2: I think this is literally true. I think he is

702
00:38:32,484 --> 00:38:35,364
Speaker 2: going to be guilty of like having over promised, especially

703
00:38:35,444 --> 00:38:39,284
Speaker 2: because like you know, a lot of his coalition was younger.

704
00:38:39,284 --> 00:38:42,044
Speaker 2: When I turned out to vote a last Tuesday, and

705
00:38:42,284 --> 00:38:45,404
Speaker 2: substantially notably younger electorate people I voted stickers on and

706
00:38:45,404 --> 00:38:46,884
Speaker 2: you typically see in New York and at my polling

707
00:38:46,924 --> 00:38:50,404
Speaker 2: place and things like that, right, and also very notable

708
00:38:50,444 --> 00:38:52,204
Speaker 2: in the data. Right, So it wasn't just wasn't just

709
00:38:52,244 --> 00:38:56,204
Speaker 2: my an general observations from once Maorea, the younger people

710
00:38:56,204 --> 00:39:00,124
Speaker 2: can be fickle. They tend not to tune into, especially

711
00:39:00,204 --> 00:39:05,004
Speaker 2: local politics outside of election years, Right, So in practice,

712
00:39:05,044 --> 00:39:10,084
Speaker 2: the squeaky wheels during fights over a budget, which by

713
00:39:10,124 --> 00:39:12,044
Speaker 2: the way, a lot of it's controlled by Albany, right,

714
00:39:12,324 --> 00:39:15,764
Speaker 2: or fight's over new city policy, right, they're having vocal

715
00:39:15,764 --> 00:39:18,604
Speaker 2: opposition can make your life a lot tougher.

716
00:39:19,164 --> 00:39:22,044
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I will say that a second time because

717
00:39:22,084 --> 00:39:25,524
Speaker 1: I think it's a really important psychological point people in general,

718
00:39:25,524 --> 00:39:28,724
Speaker 1: but younger voters in particular. Younger people in particular are fickle.

719
00:39:29,124 --> 00:39:29,284
Speaker 2: Right.

720
00:39:29,404 --> 00:39:31,964
Speaker 1: It's not just things of the moment, but it's also

721
00:39:32,564 --> 00:39:37,564
Speaker 1: especially when you're talking about like delayed gratification before like

722
00:39:37,724 --> 00:39:41,244
Speaker 1: and this happens. You know, brains mature, people mature, like

723
00:39:41,684 --> 00:39:44,484
Speaker 1: as you get older, you understand that change takes time,

724
00:39:44,564 --> 00:39:48,124
Speaker 1: that things kind of don't always happen. But we're I

725
00:39:48,164 --> 00:39:51,284
Speaker 1: think seeing a generation right now that hasn't had to

726
00:39:51,284 --> 00:39:53,844
Speaker 1: delay gratification very often, where you do have kind of

727
00:39:53,964 --> 00:39:59,044
Speaker 1: instant gratification with you know, cell phones and social media

728
00:39:59,084 --> 00:40:01,564
Speaker 1: and all of these things. And so we might see

729
00:40:01,564 --> 00:40:04,604
Speaker 1: a disconnect where you know, you elect someone on these

730
00:40:04,644 --> 00:40:08,084
Speaker 1: hopes and if you know the promises aren't met immediately,

731
00:40:08,124 --> 00:40:09,764
Speaker 1: then there's a backlash and you're like, oh, oh, you're

732
00:40:09,764 --> 00:40:13,044
Speaker 1: betraying us. Right, because they don't understand Wait, no, like

733
00:40:13,124 --> 00:40:16,644
Speaker 1: this takes time, right, things take time. This is not

734
00:40:17,004 --> 00:40:19,924
Speaker 1: you know, this is not a betrayal, and so I

735
00:40:20,044 --> 00:40:22,764
Speaker 1: do wonder how that's going to play out more broadly,

736
00:40:23,004 --> 00:40:25,644
Speaker 1: so Nate too, to kind of wrap up everything here, then,

737
00:40:26,044 --> 00:40:28,844
Speaker 1: if we're going to be looking towards the midterms, what

738
00:40:29,004 --> 00:40:31,484
Speaker 1: do you think kind of are the issues that people

739
00:40:31,524 --> 00:40:34,204
Speaker 1: should be focusing on, because, as you said, like in

740
00:40:34,244 --> 00:40:37,124
Speaker 1: New York, some of these issues like crime, they didn't

741
00:40:37,164 --> 00:40:39,884
Speaker 1: really work as we were looking at the shutdown. Some

742
00:40:39,964 --> 00:40:42,804
Speaker 1: of the things like healthcare, they weren't really working. Kind

743
00:40:42,804 --> 00:40:45,844
Speaker 1: of the let's prevent autocracy, doesn't you know? The no

744
00:40:46,004 --> 00:40:49,364
Speaker 1: King's protests did work because that was a much more

745
00:40:49,404 --> 00:40:51,964
Speaker 1: succinct way of putting it. But in your opinion, what

746
00:40:52,004 --> 00:40:55,124
Speaker 1: are the issues that Democrats should be focusing on going

747
00:40:55,164 --> 00:40:58,284
Speaker 1: into the midterms and how should they play their hand

748
00:40:58,764 --> 00:41:03,004
Speaker 1: now that they've painted themselves into this corner with capitulating

749
00:41:03,044 --> 00:41:04,284
Speaker 1: to the shutdown.

750
00:41:04,364 --> 00:41:10,284
Speaker 2: Maria inflation, inflation, inflation, the youth amis has become by ephemism,

751
00:41:10,724 --> 00:41:12,884
Speaker 2: the term of arts become affordability, which is kind of

752
00:41:12,964 --> 00:41:15,684
Speaker 2: more what's like the winning of Pooh meme where it's

753
00:41:15,684 --> 00:41:22,124
Speaker 2: like there's pooh in a fancy anyway, call it inflation, affordability.

754
00:41:22,124 --> 00:41:27,644
Speaker 2: That's for fucking pretentious bout in college. I prodounce that college.

755
00:41:27,364 --> 00:41:31,044
Speaker 1: Student vod in college East Coast.

756
00:41:32,524 --> 00:41:36,164
Speaker 2: Just call everything inflation. If healthcare is more expensive, inflation,

757
00:41:36,244 --> 00:41:39,204
Speaker 2: If cultures are more expensive, inflation. If Trump takes away

758
00:41:39,204 --> 00:41:42,004
Speaker 2: food stamps, if the stories them later on, inflation, right,

759
00:41:42,204 --> 00:41:45,164
Speaker 2: Just call everything inflation. That's a word that people understand me.

760
00:41:45,204 --> 00:41:46,964
Speaker 2: And affordability is a fine term. I'm not saying it's

761
00:41:46,964 --> 00:41:49,524
Speaker 2: the worst political mussing of all time, but like, but yeah,

762
00:41:49,764 --> 00:41:54,044
Speaker 2: and tariffs and everything else, and generalized anxiety about the economy.

763
00:41:55,324 --> 00:41:57,964
Speaker 1: It's the economy, stupid, Nate. Is that what you're saying?

764
00:41:58,284 --> 00:42:00,364
Speaker 2: Yeah, which is why I thought some check down the government.

765
00:42:00,484 --> 00:42:02,324
Speaker 2: But you know, but healthcare also gets to affordability, right,

766
00:42:02,364 --> 00:42:07,044
Speaker 2: What these are actually tax credits that help you to

767
00:42:07,084 --> 00:42:14,244
Speaker 2: pay for healthcare. By the way, Obamacare is increasing. The

768
00:42:14,244 --> 00:42:19,204
Speaker 2: preemums are increasing, irregardless or regardless of of these subsidies, right,

769
00:42:19,244 --> 00:42:21,644
Speaker 2: they also are getting more extensive. People will notice that,

770
00:42:21,844 --> 00:42:25,724
Speaker 2: and like Republicans will probably say, hey, look, I'm sure

771
00:42:25,764 --> 00:42:28,844
Speaker 2: trupples say like this proves that Obamacare is is broken.

772
00:42:28,884 --> 00:42:30,444
Speaker 2: I don't want to get into a much of economics

773
00:42:30,484 --> 00:42:33,124
Speaker 2: just late in the episode about like the initial mandate

774
00:42:33,204 --> 00:42:35,924
Speaker 2: and things like that, Right, But the thing is when

775
00:42:35,924 --> 00:42:37,844
Speaker 2: you are the president. I mean, if there's one good

776
00:42:37,844 --> 00:42:39,804
Speaker 2: thing from press from the shutdown and how the pulling

777
00:42:39,804 --> 00:42:42,524
Speaker 2: went down, right, it's like that plus the elections, we're

778
00:42:42,524 --> 00:42:45,244
Speaker 2: evidence that, like, when you are the president in power,

779
00:42:45,804 --> 00:42:47,484
Speaker 2: then you get blamed for a shit and in some

780
00:42:47,524 --> 00:42:51,484
Speaker 2: ways having like a nameless, faceless party makes it even

781
00:42:51,524 --> 00:42:53,364
Speaker 2: harder for you to get blame. That's probably reads I

782
00:42:53,364 --> 00:42:56,204
Speaker 2: think she were. You know, have someone fucking relatively anonymous,

783
00:42:56,204 --> 00:43:00,004
Speaker 2: probably some fucking Chris Murphy or some fuck who works

784
00:43:00,084 --> 00:43:02,324
Speaker 2: like get on meeting the press all the time. I mean,

785
00:43:02,404 --> 00:43:04,044
Speaker 2: like Chris Murphy was better on the shutdown than a

786
00:43:04,044 --> 00:43:06,444
Speaker 2: lot of people. I think I think it was more honest. Right,

787
00:43:06,484 --> 00:43:08,444
Speaker 2: But like, you know, you're gonna have some media horror.

788
00:43:08,564 --> 00:43:09,964
Speaker 2: Is that is that this is going to all be

789
00:43:10,124 --> 00:43:12,004
Speaker 2: edited out by the producer fly.

790
00:43:13,604 --> 00:43:16,484
Speaker 3: And on that and on that fine note, No, I

791
00:43:16,524 --> 00:43:19,844
Speaker 3: actually think I actually think that that's uh You've made.

792
00:43:19,884 --> 00:43:22,364
Speaker 3: You've made several important points that I think we can

793
00:43:22,764 --> 00:43:25,924
Speaker 3: use to sum up simplifying the messaging and making it

794
00:43:26,044 --> 00:43:28,164
Speaker 3: something that is kind of more emotional mor of us

795
00:43:28,244 --> 00:43:29,524
Speaker 3: or all, like you know.

796
00:43:29,524 --> 00:43:34,604
Speaker 1: Inflation, affordability. This affects your pockets right now. It's not

797
00:43:34,684 --> 00:43:38,924
Speaker 1: other people, it's not immigration, it's not it's not things

798
00:43:39,004 --> 00:43:42,284
Speaker 1: that are not affecting me. It's things that are affecting

799
00:43:42,804 --> 00:43:45,924
Speaker 1: my ability to live kind of my ability to live

800
00:43:45,964 --> 00:43:49,684
Speaker 1: the life that I want to live. And I think

801
00:43:49,724 --> 00:43:53,084
Speaker 1: that that is a powerful message obviously for either party,

802
00:43:53,084 --> 00:43:56,644
Speaker 1: but one that the Democrats have kind of had been

803
00:43:56,684 --> 00:43:58,644
Speaker 1: losing sight of for a long time.

804
00:43:59,124 --> 00:44:02,084
Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, final, it's you know, my final thought here.

805
00:44:02,084 --> 00:44:05,004
Speaker 2: It's been usual to be actually a citizen in the

806
00:44:05,044 --> 00:44:09,364
Speaker 2: city where my vote madderlection Democrats excuse it amount of different.

807
00:44:09,404 --> 00:44:11,604
Speaker 2: I'm actually a republic expliment before in the show, right, Yes,

808
00:44:11,644 --> 00:44:14,564
Speaker 2: but as a citizen of New York in national general elections,

809
00:44:14,604 --> 00:44:16,924
Speaker 2: your vote usually doesn't matter. It's interesting having to kind

810
00:44:16,924 --> 00:44:19,644
Speaker 2: of think through this. If we do a segment how

811
00:44:19,684 --> 00:44:21,204
Speaker 2: I decided to vote, that's a difference. I'm not going

812
00:44:21,244 --> 00:44:22,644
Speaker 2: to I'm not gonna I'm not going to reveal it

813
00:44:22,644 --> 00:44:26,404
Speaker 2: in photo you today audience, right, but like what I

814
00:44:26,444 --> 00:44:28,524
Speaker 2: will say is like if I do an issue matrix

815
00:44:28,564 --> 00:44:31,724
Speaker 2: thing where I'm like, here are the three candidates on

816
00:44:31,884 --> 00:44:34,204
Speaker 2: the seventeen issues in effect in New York, Right, I'm

817
00:44:34,204 --> 00:44:36,244
Speaker 2: not probably wouldn't wind up. Listeners are on, maybe with

818
00:44:36,284 --> 00:44:39,444
Speaker 2: some exceptions right on a few things, but like, that's

819
00:44:39,484 --> 00:44:42,644
Speaker 2: not the only thing that goes into being mayor. Effective

820
00:44:42,804 --> 00:44:49,444
Speaker 2: governance transcends ideology, especially for for city government. Right, It's like,

821
00:44:49,844 --> 00:44:52,244
Speaker 2: does it get done on time? Right? If there's a

822
00:44:52,284 --> 00:44:56,324
Speaker 2: snowstorm high school the next day, is a good communication

823
00:44:56,564 --> 00:44:58,444
Speaker 2: in public emergencies?

824
00:44:58,564 --> 00:45:02,324
Speaker 1: Right, how's everything running? I think that that's sorry. I'm

825
00:45:02,364 --> 00:45:05,084
Speaker 1: just I know we're wrapping up, but this just reminds

826
00:45:05,084 --> 00:45:08,244
Speaker 1: me and I think this is so a propos of

827
00:45:08,364 --> 00:45:10,604
Speaker 1: the town in New Hampshire I'm blanking on its name

828
00:45:10,844 --> 00:45:15,764
Speaker 1: that was very libertarian and kind of wanted to abolish everything,

829
00:45:16,204 --> 00:45:18,444
Speaker 1: and they did and it ended up being taken over

830
00:45:18,564 --> 00:45:23,564
Speaker 1: by bears by just a very funny I think there's

831
00:45:23,644 --> 00:45:28,244
Speaker 1: a it sounds like a children's story, but our wonderful

832
00:45:28,324 --> 00:45:30,844
Speaker 1: producers have just shared that there was a book on

833
00:45:30,884 --> 00:45:35,244
Speaker 1: this called A Libertarian Walks into a Bear and that

834
00:45:35,284 --> 00:45:40,004
Speaker 1: book is about this town of Grafton, New Hampshire. And

835
00:45:40,444 --> 00:45:43,164
Speaker 1: what we can learn from Grafton. But yes, you know,

836
00:45:43,324 --> 00:45:45,964
Speaker 1: does shit get done? How does the government end up

837
00:45:46,044 --> 00:45:52,644
Speaker 1: running the day today is very very important. Let us

838
00:45:52,644 --> 00:45:54,404
Speaker 1: know what you think of the show. Reach out to

839
00:45:54,524 --> 00:45:59,324
Speaker 1: us at Risky Business at pushkin dot FM. Risky Business

840
00:45:59,364 --> 00:46:01,964
Speaker 1: is hosted by me Maria Kanakova and by.

841
00:46:01,884 --> 00:46:04,644
Speaker 2: Me Late Slivery. The show was a cool production of

842
00:46:04,724 --> 00:46:08,924
Speaker 2: Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isaac Carter.

843
00:46:09,404 --> 00:46:13,284
Speaker 2: Our associate producer is Sonya gerwit Lydia, Jean Kott and

844
00:46:13,364 --> 00:46:16,524
Speaker 2: Daphne Chen are our editors, and our executive producer is

845
00:46:16,604 --> 00:46:19,364
Speaker 2: Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger.

846
00:46:20,244 --> 00:46:22,444
Speaker 1: If you like the show, please rate and review us

847
00:46:22,484 --> 00:46:25,164
Speaker 1: so other people can find us too, But once again,

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Speaker 1: only if you like us. We don't want those bad

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Speaker 1: reviews out there. Thanks for tuning in.