1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,160
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Bloomberg

2
00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:15,920
Speaker 1: This Weekend Podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini, and Elisa Matteo.

3
00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,560
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us for today's selection of conversations from

4
00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:20,959
Speaker 2: the show.

5
00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:23,479
Speaker 3: You can listen to our favorite discussions right here on

6
00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:25,800
Speaker 3: the podcast, but also make sure to join us live

7
00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:28,960
Speaker 3: every Saturday and Sunday morning, starting at seven am Easter.

8
00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:32,760
Speaker 4: We're on Bloomberg Television, Radio and the Bloomberg Business App,

9
00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:37,600
Speaker 4: bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics,

10
00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:39,120
Speaker 4: lifestyle and culture.

11
00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:42,720
Speaker 5: We are getting some breaking news, the President posting on

12
00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:45,120
Speaker 5: a social media network that the US will begin a

13
00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:49,640
Speaker 5: blockade of ships too and from the Strait of Horror Moves, nuclear,

14
00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:52,040
Speaker 5: he says, was not among the points agreed to. A

15
00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:54,920
Speaker 5: very detailed post out on True Social just minutes ago,

16
00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:58,080
Speaker 5: the President says that the US will begin blockading ships

17
00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:00,840
Speaker 5: trying to enter Horror Moves and begin to destroying minds

18
00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:04,800
Speaker 5: that Iranian's laid in the strait. Christina, the President said too,

19
00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:08,560
Speaker 5: he's asked the Navy to talk to get in touch

20
00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,560
Speaker 5: with every vessel that paid the Iran toll, and any

21
00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:14,240
Speaker 5: Iranian who fires that the US will be quote blown

22
00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:14,640
Speaker 5: to hell.

23
00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:16,600
Speaker 2: That's right, and again it's coming from the President, not

24
00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:18,960
Speaker 2: Sentcom or the Pentagon. But he says the beginning the

25
00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,920
Speaker 2: blockade will begin shortly. Other countries will be involved. Iran

26
00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:25,680
Speaker 2: will not be allowed to profit off this illegal act

27
00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,880
Speaker 2: of extortion. He says, they want money, and more importantly,

28
00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:32,040
Speaker 2: they want nuclear We want to turn now to former

29
00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:34,559
Speaker 2: Massador John Bolton. Of course, he was a former National

30
00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,800
Speaker 2: Security Advisor under President Trump during the first administration and

31
00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:39,680
Speaker 2: US Ambassador to NATO.

32
00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:41,920
Speaker 6: Ambassador Bolton, last time you were on.

33
00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:45,679
Speaker 2: The show, you were talking about how you had advocated

34
00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:48,600
Speaker 2: for this at your time at NSC. You wish they

35
00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:50,480
Speaker 2: would have done it, then you were glad they did

36
00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:53,480
Speaker 2: it now, But in that intervening time you voice some concerns,

37
00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:55,160
Speaker 2: both in writing and on some of the other networks

38
00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:56,680
Speaker 2: about how this is proceeding.

39
00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:57,600
Speaker 6: I'm wondering.

40
00:01:57,680 --> 00:01:59,440
Speaker 2: I mean, we wanted to get your take on these

41
00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,080
Speaker 2: seemingly failed talks in Pakistan, But now I want to

42
00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:04,880
Speaker 2: ask you what your thoughts on this blockade that's being

43
00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:06,800
Speaker 2: announced by President Trump just minutes ago.

44
00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:11,120
Speaker 7: Right, Well, I come from the perspective that the only

45
00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:13,919
Speaker 7: way to get true peace and security in the Middle

46
00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:16,240
Speaker 7: East is to have regime change in Iran. You can

47
00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:18,919
Speaker 7: negotiate oil you want with these people, it's not going

48
00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,280
Speaker 7: to change anything. And I think the failure of the

49
00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:26,880
Speaker 7: Islamabad negotiations just makes the point as clearly as one can.

50
00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:30,440
Speaker 7: I think the ceasefire was a mistake, but just dealing

51
00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:33,280
Speaker 7: with where we are right now. Part of the problem

52
00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:36,120
Speaker 7: here was caused by Donald Trump a few weeks ago

53
00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:41,160
Speaker 7: lifting American sanctions on the shipment of Iranian oil, and

54
00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,760
Speaker 7: I think he was motivated by fear of rising international

55
00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,639
Speaker 7: oil prices and he thought a few tankers might get

56
00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,160
Speaker 7: the price down. I don't think that's correct. I think

57
00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:54,040
Speaker 7: it was insignificant. But what he was doing was allowing

58
00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:57,400
Speaker 7: Iran to ship boil, not the Gulf Arabs, but Iran,

59
00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:01,760
Speaker 7: presumably to get paid, to gain resources to use in

60
00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:06,239
Speaker 7: their military to kill Americans, financing the war against US.

61
00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:11,080
Speaker 7: That never made any sense, and he should reimpose the sanctions.

62
00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:13,680
Speaker 7: I think that maybe i'ven't seen these tweets, but think

63
00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,519
Speaker 7: that maybe what he's doing and a blockade makes sense.

64
00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:19,359
Speaker 7: You don't have to attack carg Island. I don't think

65
00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:22,600
Speaker 7: that was ever realistic. The point is no Iran if

66
00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:26,200
Speaker 7: no Gulf Arab oil gets out, no Iranian oil gets out.

67
00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:28,280
Speaker 7: Let's see how they feel about that in Tehran.

68
00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:30,320
Speaker 5: We're going to get back to the blockade in a second.

69
00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:32,160
Speaker 5: But you mentioned regime change, So I've got to ask

70
00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:35,000
Speaker 5: you this administration, the US administration seems to think that

71
00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,840
Speaker 5: what has happened in Iran over the last six weeks

72
00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,960
Speaker 5: constitutes as regime regime change. Do you agree.

73
00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:46,280
Speaker 7: That's ridiculous. Look, what we're dealing with is a group

74
00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:52,240
Speaker 7: of religious fanatics pursuing the radical ideology, and it permeates

75
00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,520
Speaker 7: the core of viatolas at the top, and certainly permeates

76
00:03:56,560 --> 00:04:00,320
Speaker 7: the Revolutionary Guard. Now, the leadership of both the billion

77
00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,120
Speaker 7: side of the government and the Revolutionary Guard has been

78
00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:07,480
Speaker 7: severely harmed by the last six weeks. Not enough, obviously,

79
00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:10,000
Speaker 7: but it's beginning to fracture the regime at the top.

80
00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:14,119
Speaker 7: There are signs of that inside Iran, and I think

81
00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:17,839
Speaker 7: the devastation that's been unleashed against the instruments of Iranian

82
00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:21,039
Speaker 7: state power, the Revolutionary Guard, the Kods, force, the besiege

83
00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:24,440
Speaker 7: and militia are having a real effect inside around. I

84
00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:27,400
Speaker 7: think the ceasefire was a mistake. The last thing you

85
00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:29,680
Speaker 7: want to do is let up before you really do

86
00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:34,000
Speaker 7: crack the regime and it collapses internally. That gives internal

87
00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:37,719
Speaker 7: opponents and people who defect from the regime a chance

88
00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:38,320
Speaker 7: to take over.

89
00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:40,240
Speaker 8: Not guaranteed, but a chance. Well.

90
00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:42,200
Speaker 5: I think the challenge with that ambassador, some would point

91
00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:45,159
Speaker 5: out is there's not a clear group of those people.

92
00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:48,240
Speaker 5: There's not clear opposition, there's not clear defectors. Who are

93
00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,920
Speaker 5: the names who would be an acceptable leader of this

94
00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:52,560
Speaker 5: country to you?

95
00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:54,839
Speaker 2: And are those monerates left because we've seen reports that

96
00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,560
Speaker 2: many of them were potentially killed during some of these strikes.

97
00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:01,839
Speaker 7: Yeah, there were no mod it's in the regime. If

98
00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:05,560
Speaker 7: you judge by the most important criteria, who favors getting

99
00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:11,160
Speaker 7: Iranian nuclear weapons? They all favored. The opposition is really

100
00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:15,200
Speaker 7: quite widespread across the country. It is disorganized, that's a fact.

101
00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:17,760
Speaker 7: But it's not like Iran had a two party system

102
00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:19,720
Speaker 7: and we're saying, well, we want this party out and

103
00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:22,400
Speaker 7: the other party in. I do think there will be

104
00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:25,239
Speaker 7: a lot of turmoil. I think that's what happens after

105
00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:29,320
Speaker 7: a forty seven year long dictatorship begins to collapse and

106
00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:31,520
Speaker 7: I don't think you can dictate who the leaders are

107
00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,040
Speaker 7: going to be from the outside. But what we can

108
00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:37,000
Speaker 7: say is, if this regime begins to come apart, there

109
00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:40,520
Speaker 7: are plenty of people inside who, seeing the ship going down,

110
00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:42,640
Speaker 7: will decide they don't want to go down with it.

111
00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:45,560
Speaker 6: And mister Masser, what is the end goal here?

112
00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:48,560
Speaker 2: Because we have your op ed from earlier this week

113
00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,640
Speaker 2: where you say the US cannot leave without finishing the job,

114
00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:53,159
Speaker 2: and we've been talking this morning. That was a fear

115
00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:55,960
Speaker 2: of a lot of allies that the Trump administration America

116
00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:58,720
Speaker 2: would leave with the straight not fully reopen. It looks

117
00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:01,240
Speaker 2: like they are taking action on that. But even if

118
00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:04,200
Speaker 2: they do, this regime has proven I think more durable

119
00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:06,880
Speaker 2: than a lot of people in this current administration thought.

120
00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:09,680
Speaker 2: I'm wondering if you thought they would outlast this long.

121
00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:12,080
Speaker 2: And if they do start to crumble. To your point,

122
00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:13,560
Speaker 2: there are no moderates in the country.

123
00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:15,640
Speaker 6: What replaces them?

124
00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:20,640
Speaker 7: The people are the moderates. The regime itself is not

125
00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:24,640
Speaker 7: a happy house for moderates. The Revolutionary Guard and the

126
00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:28,240
Speaker 7: iotolas have to be replaced. I don't think anybody can

127
00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,640
Speaker 7: say with confidence that the regime has survived. You know,

128
00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:34,599
Speaker 7: they've been building it for forty seven years. We've attacked

129
00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:38,559
Speaker 7: it for six weeks. A little patience is required here.

130
00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,520
Speaker 7: The Gulf Arabs will tell you. I think that they

131
00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:46,040
Speaker 7: don't look forward to living as vassals to the Iotolas

132
00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:49,920
Speaker 7: in Tehran. They want the strait opened, and I think

133
00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,719
Speaker 7: now is the time to do it militarily, because if

134
00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:56,240
Speaker 7: we cannot show today that we can open the strait,

135
00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:59,880
Speaker 7: what happens three years from now when the Iotol is

136
00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:02,080
Speaker 7: side to close it again? If you want to live

137
00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:06,279
Speaker 7: under that kind of regime that is a guarantee of

138
00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:09,239
Speaker 7: higher oil prices for a long time and the golf

139
00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:10,680
Speaker 7: Arabs being subordinate.

140
00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,920
Speaker 2: I also want to ask you, you know, I watched

141
00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:17,200
Speaker 2: the Trump administration pull out of the JCPOA the first time,

142
00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:24,240
Speaker 2: the situation going into negotiations in Pakistan overnight. The elements

143
00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:26,720
Speaker 2: on the ground were not that different than the agreement

144
00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:29,240
Speaker 2: that the US pulled out of. Do you think that

145
00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,640
Speaker 2: was a smart decision to even go to those negotiations?

146
00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:34,880
Speaker 2: Do you think it gave Roan a card it wouldn't

147
00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:37,880
Speaker 2: have had if JD Vance hadn't touchdown in Islamabad.

148
00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,040
Speaker 7: Well, I don't think the negotiations gave them a cart.

149
00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:44,080
Speaker 7: I think the ceasefire gave them a card. They'd been

150
00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:47,560
Speaker 7: subjected to six weeks of constant bombardment. Now they've had

151
00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:50,440
Speaker 7: at least some time to be able to regroup, to

152
00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:55,160
Speaker 7: see if they can reconnect, re establish communications. I think

153
00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:57,600
Speaker 7: you need to put the pressure back on. The immediate

154
00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:00,920
Speaker 7: point is to open the Straight. If we open the

155
00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:04,559
Speaker 7: Straight to Gulf Arab oil but not to Iranian oil,

156
00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:07,239
Speaker 7: that would be the ideal interim fix.

157
00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:10,240
Speaker 5: I think on opening the Straight and back to this

158
00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:13,000
Speaker 5: idea of the blockade, which you have pushed for in

159
00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:15,400
Speaker 5: your New York Times off Eddie right, If American combat

160
00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,000
Speaker 5: forces entering the region can help open the strait by

161
00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:23,000
Speaker 5: controlling territory on Iran side, acknowledging the inevitable risks, that

162
00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:27,480
Speaker 5: would be more sensible strategically. Does this mean US forces

163
00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:29,400
Speaker 5: actually on the ground in Iran?

164
00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:35,960
Speaker 7: Yes, I say more strategic than taking carg Island. Look,

165
00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:38,720
Speaker 7: while we've watched for the past ten or fifteen years,

166
00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:42,560
Speaker 7: Iran has been fortifying a number of islands in the Gulf.

167
00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:45,520
Speaker 7: That's how they've set up this tolling system. Now at

168
00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:48,319
Speaker 7: least three of those islands are actually claimed by the

169
00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:52,160
Speaker 7: United Arab Emirates Alba Musa, Greater Tunba and lesser Tunda.

170
00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:57,120
Speaker 7: They're filled with tunnels that probably have missiles and other equipment.

171
00:08:57,400 --> 00:08:59,440
Speaker 7: I think those are the kinds of targets that we

172
00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:03,400
Speaker 7: need to to neutralize so that we can make the

173
00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:08,880
Speaker 7: Straight safe for maritime transit. The military will have much

174
00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,040
Speaker 7: more detailed knowledge of this, and I'm sure that's what

175
00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:13,840
Speaker 7: they're thinking about now. It's not just clearing the minds

176
00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:18,040
Speaker 7: from the Strait, although that's obviously important, but protecting convoys

177
00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:22,400
Speaker 7: of tankers from anti ship missiles, swarms of Iranian fast

178
00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:25,960
Speaker 7: boats of which we've suck a great number, and Iranian

179
00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:28,720
Speaker 7: drones dropping the weapons from the sky.

180
00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:30,800
Speaker 6: You said we.

181
00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:34,640
Speaker 2: Need to be patient with regime change, with change in Iran,

182
00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:37,880
Speaker 2: but I'm wondering what that means. How long do you

183
00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:41,000
Speaker 2: think this could take? How long do you think America

184
00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:43,719
Speaker 2: should stay in this considering this as a president who

185
00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,720
Speaker 2: campaigned on no More Forever wars? And do you think

186
00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,920
Speaker 2: the president and the American public have the attention span

187
00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:52,160
Speaker 2: for how long this could potentially take in order to

188
00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:53,760
Speaker 2: see real, durable change.

189
00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:58,199
Speaker 7: Well, it's certainly the case the President promised no more wars.

190
00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:02,480
Speaker 7: That's his problem. Doesn't think too much of the pledge,

191
00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:05,679
Speaker 7: because that's what he's doing now, and it is important

192
00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:09,320
Speaker 7: to get the American public to understand why we're doing this,

193
00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,559
Speaker 7: which is another problem of President Trump. He did not

194
00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:15,280
Speaker 7: make what I think is a very compelling case for

195
00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:18,800
Speaker 7: regime change before the war. He didn't try to persuade

196
00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:21,160
Speaker 7: the American people. He didn't work with Congress, he didn't

197
00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:23,960
Speaker 7: brief our allies, he didn't work with the Iranian opposition.

198
00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:26,680
Speaker 7: It's still not too late, but a lot of the

199
00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:30,120
Speaker 7: problems could have been alleviated. And you ask how long.

200
00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:32,360
Speaker 7: I don't think you can put a time frame on it.

201
00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:36,720
Speaker 7: I just want to introduce one radical concept victory that

202
00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:41,080
Speaker 7: we actually defeat the regime. Remove the threat of Iran's

203
00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:45,440
Speaker 7: nuclear weapons program, remove the threat of international terrorism. Remove

204
00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:48,520
Speaker 7: the threat that's really almost as grave as those two,

205
00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:51,360
Speaker 7: and that's Iranian control over the strait of hormones.

206
00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:53,920
Speaker 2: Ambassador, I understand that, but also you live in the

207
00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:56,760
Speaker 2: real world. You've lived in Washington. We've got midterms coming up.

208
00:10:56,800 --> 00:10:59,400
Speaker 2: We've been talking all morning about what this is doing

209
00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:02,199
Speaker 2: for prices for the American public and how voters vote

210
00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:06,400
Speaker 2: on kitchen table issues, and that's affordability. The longer this persists,

211
00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:08,439
Speaker 2: the more we're going to see uncertainty in markets. Even

212
00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:10,000
Speaker 2: if the Strait is open, it's not going to be

213
00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,400
Speaker 2: open to the tempo that it was before, certainly not

214
00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:15,240
Speaker 2: for some time. Aren't those two going to hit the

215
00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:18,480
Speaker 2: road potentially before this job is accomplished? And do you

216
00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:22,079
Speaker 2: think this administration, giving what's coming in November, will wait

217
00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:23,640
Speaker 2: it out or do you think they will cut and

218
00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:24,760
Speaker 2: run before the job is done.

219
00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:29,760
Speaker 7: Well, consider the cost of not succeeding. That has cost too.

220
00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:32,920
Speaker 7: I think the President could make a very effective case

221
00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,520
Speaker 7: that if you could get golf oil, golf araboil coming

222
00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:40,480
Speaker 7: out of the region. Again, given that before this started

223
00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:43,560
Speaker 7: the world was a wash with petroleum, people were talking

224
00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:45,920
Speaker 7: about the surplus and what to do about it, I

225
00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:49,440
Speaker 7: think prices would come down very quickly, especially when it

226
00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:53,360
Speaker 7: looks like it is safe to bring a maritime traffic

227
00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:56,600
Speaker 7: through the golf. Simply the fact that the golf is

228
00:11:56,679 --> 00:12:01,320
Speaker 7: open will cause prices to drop dramatically. I think it's look,

229
00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:03,400
Speaker 7: we should have done this six weeks ago. He should

230
00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:05,640
Speaker 7: have seen this at the beginning, he said, I was

231
00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:07,840
Speaker 7: surprised that they tried to close the straight. I was

232
00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:11,840
Speaker 7: surprised they attacked the Gulf Arab States. I can't imagine

233
00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:15,280
Speaker 7: the Pentagon didn't warn him of these dangers beforehand. Maybe

234
00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:16,439
Speaker 7: he just didn't pay attention.

235
00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:19,160
Speaker 5: The President in that true social post at the top

236
00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:22,080
Speaker 5: of the hour, just before the hour, said that nuclear

237
00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:24,120
Speaker 5: was not among the points agreed to. We know that's

238
00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:27,319
Speaker 5: certainly a sticking point for both parties when it comes

239
00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:31,360
Speaker 5: to these discussions. It has been for years at this point, Ambassador,

240
00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:33,880
Speaker 5: you're all too familiar with that. Is there a way

241
00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:39,000
Speaker 5: for the US to get this country to dismantle its

242
00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:42,720
Speaker 5: nuclear enrichment program without changing the regime at the top?

243
00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:48,280
Speaker 7: No, I think that's the clear point. If you cannot

244
00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:52,000
Speaker 7: change the regime's behavior and you don't want to live

245
00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:56,280
Speaker 7: under an unacceptable threat like disappearing in a mushroom cloud,

246
00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:58,640
Speaker 7: then the answer is change the regime.

247
00:12:59,400 --> 00:12:59,880
Speaker 8: George W.

248
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,360
Speaker 7: Bush put it very very well when he was present.

249
00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:05,680
Speaker 7: He said, we cannot allow the world's most dangerous weapons

250
00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,840
Speaker 7: to fall into the hands of the world's most dangerous people.

251
00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:11,560
Speaker 7: And a lot of those most dangerous people are running

252
00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:13,120
Speaker 7: the regime in Tehran.

253
00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:15,520
Speaker 2: All Right, ambassad John Bolton, Thank you so much for

254
00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:16,480
Speaker 2: joining us this morning.

255
00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:21,199
Speaker 6: Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend. Right

256
00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:35,680
Speaker 6: after this, we want to bring in our reporter panel.

257
00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:39,200
Speaker 2: We've got Axio's National security editor Dave Laller timing.

258
00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:40,760
Speaker 6: Dave, We've glad we've got you this morning.

259
00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:43,640
Speaker 2: Jeff Mason is back with us, scrambled back in front

260
00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:44,160
Speaker 2: of his camera.

261
00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:45,440
Speaker 6: Jeff, we always appreciate you.

262
00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:49,040
Speaker 2: And congressional reporter Alicia Diaz making her debut on the

263
00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:51,160
Speaker 2: show on a very busy morning. Thank you all so

264
00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:52,240
Speaker 2: much for joining us.

265
00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:53,200
Speaker 9: Dave.

266
00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:55,880
Speaker 2: I think I'm going to start with you, do we

267
00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:58,520
Speaker 2: know have we heard anything from the Pentagon about what

268
00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:00,719
Speaker 2: this blockade will entail the president? And one that your

269
00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:03,520
Speaker 2: social tweet says other countries are involved, do we know

270
00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:07,720
Speaker 2: which ones? And more broadly, logistically, from a military standpoint,

271
00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:09,560
Speaker 2: how do you execute something like this?

272
00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:11,000
Speaker 8: Yeah?

273
00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:14,000
Speaker 10: Look, President Trump has said for quite a while that well,

274
00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:16,680
Speaker 10: I will say he's flip flopped on this point, but

275
00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,560
Speaker 10: he's wanted to build an international coalition to free to

276
00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:22,920
Speaker 10: open the Strait of Hormuz. A lot of European countries

277
00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:25,640
Speaker 10: who could have brought some capabilities to bear. We're not

278
00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:27,320
Speaker 10: willing to do that when there was a risk of

279
00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:32,360
Speaker 10: coming under Iranian fire. That includes the French the British,

280
00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:36,440
Speaker 10: So as far as I understand, their positions have not changed.

281
00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,400
Speaker 10: Some of the Gulf states, the UAE, for example, have

282
00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:42,520
Speaker 10: suggested they would be willing to play some role in this,

283
00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:45,080
Speaker 10: but they don't have the same level of naval assets

284
00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:48,040
Speaker 10: to bring to bear in this coalition, So perhaps some

285
00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:50,440
Speaker 10: support roles from some of those states as well as Israel.

286
00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:53,560
Speaker 10: But yeah, President Trump has changed his position from we

287
00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:56,520
Speaker 10: don't need to open the straight, to will have allies

288
00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:58,160
Speaker 10: work with us to open the straight, to the allies

289
00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,240
Speaker 10: won't do it, forget it, We'll leave and they'll take

290
00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:02,720
Speaker 10: care of it, to now announcing I guess that the

291
00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:06,040
Speaker 10: US is going to play first and foremost a role

292
00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:10,440
Speaker 10: in imposing a blockade and in figuring out what gets

293
00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:12,040
Speaker 10: in and what gets out of the strait.

294
00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,360
Speaker 5: Jeff is, let's take a step back here and try

295
00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:17,800
Speaker 5: to parse through what exactly this means for the US's

296
00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:21,000
Speaker 5: role in the region right now. Is this an escalation

297
00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,520
Speaker 5: in a time where they're supposed to be a ceasefire

298
00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,200
Speaker 5: to negotiate, Yeah, I mean.

299
00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:30,360
Speaker 11: It's an escalation of sorts. Yes, it's not an escalation

300
00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:32,920
Speaker 11: of military might yet, although as.

301
00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:34,280
Speaker 5: I the threats of it are there.

302
00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:37,680
Speaker 11: Exactly, the threats are still there. And that's how he

303
00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:40,880
Speaker 11: concluded his most recent true social posts, and that's also

304
00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:44,720
Speaker 11: how he went into the negotiations by saying if they

305
00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,680
Speaker 11: didn't lead to a deal, then the shooting would start again.

306
00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:50,240
Speaker 11: I think it's actually quite interesting that that's not what

307
00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:52,960
Speaker 11: he led with here. Instead he led with this blockade,

308
00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,960
Speaker 11: creating more questions about how that's going to work, which

309
00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:59,400
Speaker 11: countries are going to be involved, the spot on question

310
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:01,880
Speaker 11: that Christina ask which is how does the military even

311
00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:07,080
Speaker 11: execute this? And then leaving the clear conclusion that the

312
00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:09,760
Speaker 11: US is not moving out of the region but going

313
00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:13,120
Speaker 11: to stay. So that's a long way of saying it's

314
00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:16,160
Speaker 11: an escalation of sorts. And I tell you what, I

315
00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:18,440
Speaker 11: think it'll be very interesting to see how markets react

316
00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:22,200
Speaker 11: to this tomorrow because the fact of any blockade, be

317
00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:25,960
Speaker 11: it by the United States or other countries, preventing ships

318
00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:29,320
Speaker 11: from going through the strait. That has been the biggest

319
00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:34,560
Speaker 11: economic ramification of this war has been the closing of

320
00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,680
Speaker 11: that strait and the impact on oil prices, which President

321
00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:41,160
Speaker 11: Trump desperately wants to bring down so that the gasoline

322
00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:43,600
Speaker 11: prices are in the United States anyway, are at a

323
00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:46,360
Speaker 11: more palatable place come November.

324
00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:49,520
Speaker 2: Alicia, I want to bring you in because there is

325
00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:51,440
Speaker 2: correct me if I'm wrong. I think there's a war

326
00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,720
Speaker 2: Powers resolution vote coming up on the Hill next week.

327
00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:58,760
Speaker 2: Question we ask a lawmakers from all sides of the

328
00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:02,240
Speaker 2: aisle every time we have on is realistically, is there

329
00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,480
Speaker 2: anything Congress to can do to stop not only this president,

330
00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,000
Speaker 2: but really any president that wants to take a military

331
00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:08,600
Speaker 2: action like this?

332
00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:10,880
Speaker 6: And can they even get on the same page to try.

333
00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:14,800
Speaker 12: It's a great question, and as we know, you know,

334
00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:18,800
Speaker 12: the President has no issue going around congressional authority. The

335
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:22,359
Speaker 12: war powers what specifically will be largely symbolic. Even if

336
00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:25,640
Speaker 12: it passes through the House and the Senate, the President

337
00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:29,320
Speaker 12: has the power to veto it. However, Congress still holds

338
00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:33,000
Speaker 12: the power of the purse. There's still a roughly two

339
00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:38,360
Speaker 12: hundred billion dollar supplemental funding request for defense spending sort

340
00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:41,719
Speaker 12: of looming in the background here, and so there are

341
00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:45,680
Speaker 12: only so many creative budgetary moves that the White House

342
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:47,720
Speaker 12: can do before they will have to turn to Congress.

343
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:50,919
Speaker 12: And say, you know, we do need extra spending to

344
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:54,000
Speaker 12: put some mite behind this conflict in the Middle East,

345
00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:56,800
Speaker 12: and so it will be a stretch to see can

346
00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:00,240
Speaker 12: he get you know, a sufficient number of members behind

347
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 12: what is potentially an unpopular war.

348
00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:05,840
Speaker 5: Well, I'm glad you said that, because this is exactly

349
00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:07,880
Speaker 5: the needle that these members of Congress have to threat,

350
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:11,399
Speaker 5: especially those members who are up for re election, you know,

351
00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:14,120
Speaker 5: come November. How do they do this or what are

352
00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:15,840
Speaker 5: they doing in a way that shows that they support

353
00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:20,720
Speaker 5: the president? Or possibly uh, if they start to push

354
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,879
Speaker 5: away from the President's position because this is unpopular to

355
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:24,920
Speaker 5: try to win reelection.

356
00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:30,520
Speaker 12: Alicia, exactly, I've talked to you know, election analysts and

357
00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:33,879
Speaker 12: experts who say that it's possible to get to a

358
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:38,639
Speaker 12: point where, relatively soon where Republicans start to question, you know,

359
00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,679
Speaker 12: do I side with how my constituents are feeling, or

360
00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,600
Speaker 12: do I continue to side with the president. What's going

361
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:46,840
Speaker 12: to be more beneficial for me? What is going to

362
00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:51,119
Speaker 12: position me best to get up for reelection, you know,

363
00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,840
Speaker 12: especially with the midterms looming this November. So it does

364
00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 12: possible we start to see more of that praying and

365
00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:01,760
Speaker 12: what is already a very slim majority and kind of

366
00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:05,800
Speaker 12: a disorganized Republican party, especially in the House.

367
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:08,080
Speaker 2: David, I want to go back to you and ask,

368
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:11,639
Speaker 2: first of all, if you've heard, just even in the

369
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:15,600
Speaker 2: last intervening minutes, anything from Sancam or the Pentagon any details.

370
00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:17,440
Speaker 6: I'm assuming the answers no, but if I'm wrong, please

371
00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:17,919
Speaker 6: correct me.

372
00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:19,919
Speaker 2: I also want to I mean, there's a ton of

373
00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:23,399
Speaker 2: military equipment from the US in the Middle East. Obviously

374
00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 2: we tracked it for weeks as it was all heading

375
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:25,400
Speaker 2: over there.

376
00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:26,640
Speaker 6: Do they have.

377
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,680
Speaker 2: Logistically the equipment they would need to execute something like this?

378
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,400
Speaker 6: And is the Pentagon?

379
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:36,119
Speaker 2: Is the military getting a bit overstretched because we had Venezuela,

380
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,320
Speaker 2: we have this, and now Trump is already talking about

381
00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:39,919
Speaker 2: potential action in Cuba.

382
00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:41,520
Speaker 6: At some point, does the rubber meet the road?

383
00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:43,600
Speaker 2: And even a very loyal DoD is going to say,

384
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:45,800
Speaker 2: we have to pick some priorities because we can't be

385
00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:46,520
Speaker 2: everywhere at once.

386
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 13: Sure.

387
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:50,560
Speaker 10: Yeah, the for the aircraft carry one of the two

388
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,760
Speaker 10: that's in the region is setting records for the amount

389
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 10: of time that that crew has been on that ship.

390
00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:57,920
Speaker 10: They were involved in the Venezuela operation. Now they're over

391
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:02,000
Speaker 10: in the Gulf and There's been some reporting about just

392
00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,159
Speaker 10: how stretched they are that particular crew. You sort of

393
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,640
Speaker 10: extend that out to the full range of the forces

394
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,480
Speaker 10: that the US is bringing to bear. Certainly you could

395
00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 10: see the US, the troops themselves, and the equipment being stretched.

396
00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 10: You know, some stuff needs repairs, needs to be rotated out, etc. Now,

397
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:24,200
Speaker 10: whether there's enough in the region to pull this off,

398
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:28,199
Speaker 10: now it depends exactly how they're going to execute this mission.

399
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 10: There's been some doubt cast on the idea that the

400
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,920
Speaker 10: US or even its allies have enough to be able

401
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:37,199
Speaker 10: to escort individual tankers in and out of the Strait. Now,

402
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,240
Speaker 10: that's not what Trump is saying here. He's talking about

403
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:43,920
Speaker 10: a blockade. I'm trying to visualize even where you would

404
00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 10: position assets in order to impose a total blockade, very

405
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 10: very difficult. It is a narrow stretch of water, but

406
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:53,960
Speaker 10: not narrow enough that unless the US is willing to

407
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:57,680
Speaker 10: open fire on vessels that come through, which maybe we are,

408
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 10: that you could interdict everything that's coming in and out

409
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 10: of the Strait. But obviously there has been some thought

410
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 10: put into that on the Pentagon side. This has been

411
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 10: one of the options that's pre presented to Trump. Over

412
00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:15,399
Speaker 10: the past several weeks. Yeah, it's going to be a

413
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:18,359
Speaker 10: question of how they execute it and whether they then think, Okay,

414
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,479
Speaker 10: we need to bring even more force to bear in

415
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 10: the region, which will suggest to people sitting back in

416
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 10: the US, to lawmakers, etc. That this is going to

417
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 10: be a longer, costlier, potentially bloodier campaign depending on what

418
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 10: tactics exactly the military is using. At a time when

419
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 10: they were just sort of preparing the American people for

420
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 10: this to be over right, it was just a few

421
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 10: days ago that Pete Hegseth said all of the military

422
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:49,159
Speaker 10: objectives had been achieved. President Trump himself was sort of

423
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 10: talking in a tone that suggested he thought it was

424
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 10: time to get out. And now after just one day

425
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 10: of talks, we could be back into a point where

426
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 10: we're looking at an expanding US operation in the Gulf. Now,

427
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 10: I don't want to speak too soon this. Those announcements

428
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 10: were just made minutes before we all came on.

429
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 6: It, literally minutes ago. We'll give you some leeway there

430
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 6: there still making sense of it.

431
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,199
Speaker 10: But yeah, I mean, the signal could be that the

432
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:17,919
Speaker 10: US is stepping up, you know, the operation in and

433
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 10: around the Gulf, rather than you know, one or two

434
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:24,640
Speaker 10: more weeks. As President Trump had said previously, Jeff.

435
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 2: I'm wondering if you know, and we may not know

436
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,719
Speaker 2: at this point, who we think got in the President's

437
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 2: ear about this, Because we talked previously, it seemed to me,

438
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:33,959
Speaker 2: at least that the President was kind of saying, well,

439
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 2: the Strait could be opened, the Straight could not be open.

440
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:36,919
Speaker 6: He'd almost lost interest in it.

441
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 2: And now we get this about facing this very forceful

442
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 2: tweet language and action from the White House. Do we

443
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:45,400
Speaker 2: think this is Vance coming back and giving him a call?

444
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:47,399
Speaker 2: Do we think this is someone else in his orbit

445
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 2: pushing this Who who does this sound like to you

446
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:52,640
Speaker 2: as someone who covers this administration intimately?

447
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 11: Well, honestly, Christina, I think it's just reality getting into

448
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 11: his ear. I mean, the fact that the Strait was

449
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:04,440
Speaker 11: an open question mark was a huge vulnerability for this president,

450
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 11: for the United States, for the rest of the world.

451
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 11: And it's a vulnerability that largely wasn't there before this

452
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 11: war began. So even though he has used sort of

453
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 11: positive language to say, oh, it'll just open up on

454
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,719
Speaker 11: its own, that was never realistic.

455
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 9: And I think it.

456
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 11: Also raises questions. Now again, there's so many questions that

457
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 11: are being raised about what's realistic about this blockade. There

458
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 11: weren't that many ships going through in the first place. Certainly,

459
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,679
Speaker 11: the point of the blockade appears to be that he

460
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,360
Speaker 11: wants to prevent any ships going through that Iran had blessed.

461
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:40,199
Speaker 11: So that's going to impact Iran and up pressure on

462
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 11: them economically and also increased pressure on other countries that

463
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 11: we're supporting Iran. But I don't know the answer to

464
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 11: who got into his ear. I think certainly it's he

465
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 11: said that Vice President Vance and his other two envoys

466
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 11: had briefed him, so I think they would be the

467
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 11: last people who he must have been on the phone with.

468
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:04,400
Speaker 11: In general, he had to address the Strait in some way,

469
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 11: and this is how he's decided to address it.

470
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,359
Speaker 6: The person who called was reality is just Jeff. What's it?

471
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 6: So eloquently?

472
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 5: Hey, Alicia, we got to make a little bit of

473
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 5: a pivot here because you cover Congress and we do

474
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,880
Speaker 5: have a member of Congress who's in the news right now,

475
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,640
Speaker 5: and that would be Eric Swalwell, who is facing pressure

476
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 5: to step down from the governor's race in California, questions

477
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,919
Speaker 5: about his own future and investigation opened here in New

478
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,719
Speaker 5: York about sexual assault allegations. Could just bring us up

479
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:35,880
Speaker 5: to speed on what could happen to him and three

480
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 5: other members of Congress that you know now we're talking

481
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,120
Speaker 5: about could actually be expelled for various reasons.

482
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:45,400
Speaker 12: Of course, it's definitely not, you know, a great time

483
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 12: in the California governor's race. Hakim Jeffries already put out

484
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 12: a statement, you know, condemning the actions and the allegations,

485
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 12: asking Swaball to step down from the governor's race. To me,

486
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 12: it seems like only a matter time to not have

487
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 12: the party leader on your side. You know, it just

488
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 12: seems like a grim chance of continuing in that race,

489
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:10,640
Speaker 12: and that really shakes things up. You know, it's going

490
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 12: to be interesting to see how California plays out, and

491
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 12: of course there's allegations amongst other members in both parties,

492
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 12: and so you know, as the midterms continue to play out,

493
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 12: you know, it'll be interesting to see how this all goes.

494
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 4: All right, A.

495
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 2: Lisia Diaz our congressional reporter, Jeff Mason on the White

496
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,479
Speaker 2: House beat, and Dave Lawler joining us from Axios, their

497
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 2: national security editor.

498
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 6: Thank you all so much. Stay with us for more

499
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:39,240
Speaker 6: on Bloomberg this weekend.

500
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:53,879
Speaker 5: Right after this, let's bring in Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity

501
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 5: strategist Mike mcglung, who watches the oil markets as part

502
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 5: of his remit for Bloomberg Intelligence. Mike, I just want

503
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 5: to get your reaction to escalation like this in the

504
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 5: straight of horror moves an area responsible for about a

505
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 5: fifth of the world's oil. What does this due to

506
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 5: oil prices?

507
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:11,439
Speaker 8: Yeah, well, you know the answer to that.

508
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:13,159
Speaker 14: To him, it's a question of how high they go

509
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 14: when we open up Monday morning or open up actually tonight.

510
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 14: But you areas seeing the indication of wealth reversion or

511
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 14: destruction in bitcoin it's down three percent. It's only really

512
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,439
Speaker 14: active market that's training right now risk asset. So I

513
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 14: think what we're seeing right now is we're going to

514
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:30,399
Speaker 14: probably see decent amount of trurol rally, energy prices rally

515
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,439
Speaker 14: on Sunday night Monday, and decent amount of decline in

516
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,400
Speaker 14: the stock market. It questions how much so and how

517
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 14: this has resolved, But just the fact that you know

518
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 14: there's still that there's still aggression there from a ran,

519
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 14: the fact that we've not been able to open and

520
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 14: secure that straight Maybe this will help make it happen.

521
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 14: But that's the big unknown, and that's the key thing

522
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 14: about Market's an unknown, and the key thing to think

523
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 14: about here is the stock market gap back to unchanged

524
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 14: on the week, on the year, on Friday, this might

525
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:57,639
Speaker 14: have been that sell signal.

526
00:26:58,359 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 8: Mike.

527
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 2: We've also got Lisa and Tate here with us at

528
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 2: the table, and I know she's got many questions for you,

529
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:04,239
Speaker 2: so go ahead, Mike.

530
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 4: I wanted to ask that there's so many different benchmarks, like,

531
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 4: for example, the difference between Brent and WTI crewed. Can

532
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 4: you talk about how they're behaving differently and how they.

533
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 8: Have been historically. Brent WTI is A is a better grade.

534
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 14: Historically traded at a higher price, but that changed in

535
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 14: twenty eleven or twelve, so when the US supply started

536
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 14: to be excessive and then it traded at a lower price.

537
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 14: Now what we have is the rest of the world

538
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:32,640
Speaker 14: demand pull on US exports because we're a net export

539
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 14: of crude oil liquid fuels if.

540
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 8: You conclude cannons around eight million barrels a day. But

541
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 8: there's a key soort thumb I'm worried about.

542
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,719
Speaker 14: We have a president who started this war and has

543
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,879
Speaker 14: a big problem with inflation and prices going higher. To me,

544
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,439
Speaker 14: the risk is he might ban exports which to pressure

545
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 14: US price is lower, and not care about the rest

546
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 14: of the world. So that's the key thing that's happening

547
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,880
Speaker 14: right now. We're bidding up WTI. I think the risk

548
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,360
Speaker 14: is there might be one decision to limit the ability

549
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 14: for US oil prices go higher because we're actually a

550
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:01,360
Speaker 14: net exporter.

551
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,120
Speaker 2: I mean, that's what's been surprising on an economic level

552
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 2: about the President taking on this conflict right now, because

553
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:08,400
Speaker 2: to your point, he is.

554
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 6: Obsessed with inflation.

555
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 2: He is obsessed with wanting to say prices are going down.

556
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 2: Do you think you will see this other places, this

557
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 2: shock throughout the different places throughout the economy. What do

558
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 2: you think this is going to do for inflation? Because

559
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 2: one of the things we've been talking about is even

560
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 2: if it's open a little bit, the strait is not

561
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,479
Speaker 2: open fully. Production is not springing back to where it was.

562
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 2: What is the tail end of this and where do

563
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:31,880
Speaker 2: you think you're going to see an impact?

564
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 8: Well, it's still early days. It reminds me a lot.

565
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 14: There's a big combination here of nine to eleven when

566
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 14: we had that Bajor shock was a psychological shock in

567
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 14: the attack and two thousand and eight when we had

568
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 14: that big pump and energy prices, and one thing you

569
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 14: remember is the risk is post inflation deflation. Now we're

570
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 14: inflation right now. But the thing is, what when do

571
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 14: you have a global energy crisis and crudel spikes.

572
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:53,960
Speaker 8: It's its own worst enemy.

573
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 14: It only goes up so far supply comes on demand

574
00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 14: collapses and the whole conomy goes down. So the key

575
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 14: thing me, now, if we see some we're seeing demand

576
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 14: destruction in's early days. You certainly see that prices of diesel,

577
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 14: the price of diesel in this country is shot up,

578
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:09,239
Speaker 14: and of course in the rest of the world. But

579
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 14: typically that'll shut down the demand and it can really

580
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 14: adjust people's capital and decision making. And to me, the

581
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 14: key trigger is consumer sentiment. We see mister Trump the

582
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 14: lost in his polls with some people said since when

583
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 14: mister Nixon right before the impeachment, so he.

584
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 8: Has nothing to lose.

585
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 14: But I think this is one of those things. This

586
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 14: is really bad as we head towards the midterms. This

587
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 14: is really bad for the consumer. And the key question

588
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 14: is what's the Presidenty're going to do about it.

589
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 5: Well, what can the president actually do about it? If

590
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 5: he does ban exports, does that actually make a dent?

591
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 5: Because my understanding, Mike, and you know this better than

592
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 5: anyone else, is the oil that the US produces is

593
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 5: a different type of oil that's not necessarily refined by

594
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 5: our refineries that we have throughout the country that actually

595
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 5: get that refined product to us.

596
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 14: That's the key thing, Tim, You nail that there's a difference,

597
00:29:57,320 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 14: major difference between the actual price of that crude oil

598
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 14: and refined products. They're a different market and a lot

599
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 14: of that's imported in the US. But the bottom line

600
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 14: is before you there used to be no refiners in

601
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:07,720
Speaker 14: your backyard.

602
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 8: I guess we have to shift that.

603
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 14: It's the key fact is drastic measures and really low

604
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 14: you know, getting your backup against the wall usually means

605
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 14: certain significant decisions.

606
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 8: So I don't know where it's going to go.

607
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 14: The key theme is this was probably supposed to be

608
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 14: bopped up in a week, meaning we're supposed to be

609
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 14: able to say that the strait would be cleared, and

610
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 14: it's not.

611
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 8: Some questions what are they going to do next?

612
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 4: The next question we have is the straight up our

613
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 4: moves that right that's what we've been talking about. Is

614
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 4: there anything else that we should be concerned about or

615
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 4: are worried about that we're not talking about.

616
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 8: Well, the thing is, it's the human ability when there's

617
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 8: necessity and for invention.

618
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 14: Now hearing a lot of work arounds. For instance, Saudi

619
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 14: Arabia's had a pipeline going to the Red Sea. There's

620
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:52,479
Speaker 14: been talk about there's been a the canant the China

621
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 14: Iranian Railway. I'm sure they can get oil through China

622
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 14: from Iran to China that way. But this is this

623
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 14: is the the war I seen. Five years from now,

624
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 14: we're going to look back in the strait won't be

625
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 14: as significant.

626
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 8: We'll find the work around like we did in twenty

627
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 8: twenty two.

628
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 14: It is celerated that trend of technology replacing foster fuels.

629
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 8: For right now.

630
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 14: The bottom line, mister Trump, I think is advisor is

631
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 14: how mister Trump, there's.

632
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 8: One thing you need to do here.

633
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 14: You've got to open that straight whatever it takes, and

634
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 14: maybe this is the next step.

635
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 2: Speaking of the President, he's been very bullish and optimistic

636
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 2: that the US action in Venezuela is going to really

637
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 2: pump some energy. No pun intended into that oil sector.

638
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,480
Speaker 2: But to Tim's point, this is a different kind of oil.

639
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 2: It's very heavy, it's hard to refine, and that oil

640
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 2: sector is really really degraded. Me it's a lot of

641
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 2: repairs I've seen that's on like a seven year timeline.

642
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 2: Is there any possibility that Venezuela can get online fast

643
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 2: enough to make a dent in some of these prices

644
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 2: that we're seeing or is the president not quite accurate

645
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 2: on that?

646
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 8: I think it's more the latter. We know his bravado.

647
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 8: I mean, it's going to go there.

648
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 14: And when people say long term, we can thing about commodities,

649
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 14: the ability, the elasticity to commodities is a complete ball market.

650
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 14: But the thing is this Venezuelian issue really mark the

651
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 14: bottom in crudel around fifty five dollars a barrow, and

652
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 14: obviously now we're pushing it on one hundred in that

653
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 14: fun contract. That's a long term thing, but in the

654
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 14: mid and the point is on the big picture, that's

655
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 14: part of that shift in the world from.

656
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:24,239
Speaker 8: The Middle East and the Strait doesn't matter as much

657
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 8: for the US.

658
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 14: The price maker status in crodel has shifted to the

659
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 14: Western hemisphere from Canada, Argentina, US in the middle US

660
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 14: most significant part about it and who's leaning this war US.

661
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 14: So I'm just thinking whether the next iteration is the

662
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 14: key thing I'm worried about as we hit into in

663
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 14: the market now, is we've never seen this kind of

664
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 14: voltullly in crudel and gold without it tricking out to

665
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 14: the stock market, and the stock market got back to

666
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 14: unchanged on Friday. I think this might bring out pretty

667
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 14: significant cell tickets, and I'm really worried about that.

668
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 5: Hey, we want to talk about bitcoin, but just before

669
00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:00,160
Speaker 5: we do that, thirty seconds, Mike, Because you lived through

670
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 5: the global financial crisis watching oil close that you understand

671
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 5: the patterns and what this does to economies. What would

672
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 5: be your call about a price of oil being linked

673
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 5: to a recession in the US in the next few months.

674
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 8: Exactly.

675
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 14: I do think by the end of the year, trude

676
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:19,080
Speaker 14: oil that December contract more likely to go to fifty

677
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 14: than one hundred. Right now, it's about seventy three. And

678
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 14: that's part of the stock market dropping ten twenty percent.

679
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 8: Wow.

680
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 5: Okay, at first I was excited to hear that, and

681
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 5: then not so much.

682
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 4: Well, I'm looking at my screen here, Mike, and I'm

683
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 4: seeing bitcoin down about three percent, just above seventy thousand

684
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 4: right now. I mean, did that surprise you? I mean it

685
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 4: usually something like this bitcoin, wouldn't it make some big moves.

686
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 14: It's a highly volad tool risk gasket and trades on

687
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 14: weekend and so anything people can buy or sell, and

688
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 14: it's in a bear market and it's near the upper

689
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 14: end of the range. I think that's part of bitcoin

690
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 14: droppingtown the least fifty this year, and I don't see

691
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 14: why it shouldn't go lower.

692
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 8: The thing is about bitcoin, it's just it was it

693
00:33:59,240 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 8: got way too.

694
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 14: High high last year, and now there's a nonlimited supply

695
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 14: similar cryptocurrency, so that's a bubble that's still bursting.

696
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 2: Mike, I got one more short one before we let

697
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 2: you go. I've been curious about safe havens and what

698
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 2: safe havens are left. Gold obviously one of the go tos,

699
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 2: but has not been performing quite as well or the

700
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 2: way one would expect.

701
00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 6: Talk us through it. Where we're at and what you do.

702
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 14: So I love being part of and I can't give

703
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 14: make trade recommendations and stuff. But Compliance has never said

704
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 14: I can't overweight treasuries, and for me, that's what we're

705
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:30,759
Speaker 14: supposed to see this.

706
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 8: Overeid treasuries hides from the market.

707
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 14: If you're not long energy, it's not the time because

708
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:37,959
Speaker 14: energy goes up and then it makes it go back down.

709
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 14: The key thing to remember here, though, is gold warned

710
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 14: us this was prescient. Last year was the best year

711
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 14: for gold since nineteen seventy nine. Now it makes sense,

712
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 14: but the end of February it was the most expensive

713
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 14: ever versus Bloomber Commodity Index. It was near a fifty

714
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 14: year high versus a basket of treasuries, and a fifty

715
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 14: year high versus a sixty.

716
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 8: Month moving average around there. I don't think I'll ever

717
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:57,840
Speaker 8: be able to say that again.

718
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 14: Gold is now a highly volatile risk ap and when

719
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 14: stock mark goes down, Gold's more likely go down.

720
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 6: That is crazy to me, all right. Mike McGlone is spoken.

721
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 4: Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend. Right

722
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 4: after this. Welcome back to Bloomberg this week, and I'm

723
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 4: Lise Mattae alongside Christina Raffini Tim Cinevank also joining us

724
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 4: this morning. So AI, It's used for a lot of things, right,

725
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 4: maybe a personal trainer.

726
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 6: I've kind of thought about it.

727
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 2: Maybe christ I have too, and I'm so anti AI,

728
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 2: but this is the one place I would use it.

729
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 2: And Bloomberg Senior Economics and Government editor Derek Wallbank is

730
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 2: making a pretty strong case that I should because he

731
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 2: ran that very experience experiment. Excuse me to help him

732
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:51,879
Speaker 2: run today's Paris marathon. He's actually running it right now.

733
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,959
Speaker 2: Our control room says he's around the ten mile mark.

734
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:56,799
Speaker 6: We believe in you, Eric, you can do this.

735
00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 2: Derek wrote about his journey in the weekend essay at

736
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:01,720
Speaker 2: Blue and we talked to him.

737
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:02,399
Speaker 6: Just before the race.

738
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 2: Derek, thank you so much for joining us. Are you

739
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:07,760
Speaker 2: a marathon person? Have you done marathons before?

740
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:12,280
Speaker 9: I'm so not this person. I don't drink anyway.

741
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 1: No.

742
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 13: I tried a marathon like more than ten years ago,

743
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 13: and it was a complete disaster. I mean really complete disaster.

744
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:23,359
Speaker 13: I think a lot of runners sometimes will say that, oh,

745
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 13: this didn't go well, and you look at the time

746
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 13: and it's like, oh my goodness, No, this was genuinely

747
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 13: a complete disaster.

748
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 9: It was the Marine Corps Marathon in Washington.

749
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 13: I went to a pediatrist afterwards because I had so

750
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 13: many problems, and they were like, congratulations on your only

751
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 13: ever marathon you're ever.

752
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 9: Going to do? This is John, You're never going to

753
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:43,840
Speaker 9: do this. So this is not me.

754
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:47,760
Speaker 13: But I sort of decided, Look, you know, I wanted

755
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 13: to try something that I couldn't do right, and I

756
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 13: wanted to sort of get myself in a fitness save

757
00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 13: the shape that I that I wasn't in and that

758
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,760
Speaker 13: I couldn't get in to. And I was like, Okay,

759
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 13: if I'm going to do this, I need to make

760
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:04,800
Speaker 13: some changes.

761
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 9: What could I do? And I was like, I know

762
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 9: what I'm going to do. I'll go get a trainer.

763
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 9: Better yet, let me just build one myself.

764
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:12,919
Speaker 8: And you did.

765
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 6: That's exactly what you did.

766
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 4: I totally get where you are. I did the New

767
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 4: York Marathon, tore my meniscus, and I spared to never

768
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 4: do another one again.

769
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:21,840
Speaker 6: So you're a better person than me.

770
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 4: But you have like apps like Strava Runner, right, you

771
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 4: have human coaches, but you decided on check GPT. Okay,

772
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,279
Speaker 4: so why did you decide to go that route with this?

773
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 9: Well?

774
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 13: Look, so I'm living now in San Francisco, right it's

775
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:42,839
Speaker 13: the world capital of artificial intelligence, and every single time

776
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 13: that you talk to somebody, I've discovered the number one

777
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:48,120
Speaker 13: question is what are you doing?

778
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:50,240
Speaker 9: What are you building? You know, what are you trying

779
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:50,960
Speaker 9: to develop?

780
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,920
Speaker 13: And so there's this sort of spirit in the city

781
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:56,759
Speaker 13: that like anything is possible and that AI can kind

782
00:37:56,800 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 13: of do a lot. So I guess there's a little

783
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 13: bit of like optimism in the water, that all things

784
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,920
Speaker 13: are kind of possible. This is like San Francisco, I

785
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 13: would say, is like all things positive on AI, where

786
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 13: a lot of other places are like very much all

787
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 13: things negative. And so there's a little bit of that

788
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 13: optimism that I was trying to do.

789
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:19,880
Speaker 9: But there was also this curiosity, right.

790
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:24,920
Speaker 13: Which is basically what could I do with it? It

791
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 13: seemed like it would be a really smart way for

792
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 13: me to be able to figure out what AI can do,

793
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 13: maybe what it cannot do, and you know, use myself

794
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 13: as my own guinea pig.

795
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:39,279
Speaker 9: I'm always happy to sort of do that.

796
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 2: I have not run a marathon. I don't want to

797
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 2: run a marathon. I want to want to run a marathon.

798
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 2: I keep waiting. I turned forward this year and I

799
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 2: thought maybe it'll kick in and I'll have a midlife.

800
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:53,800
Speaker 6: Crisis and what Nope. But as someone who's.

801
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 2: Tried this once before, I'm assuming you trained a little

802
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 2: bit before.

803
00:38:57,200 --> 00:38:58,760
Speaker 6: What was the training regiment?

804
00:38:58,920 --> 00:38:59,760
Speaker 9: What was different?

805
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 2: Did chat, GBT and our AI overlords tell you to do?

806
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 8: Yeah?

807
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 13: So it was really interesting. So I spent about an

808
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 13: hour feeding this thing. This beats that I was building

809
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 13: basically all of the training that I had done for

810
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 13: everything before, all of my five k runs, my ten

811
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 13: k runs, you know, the soccer I was doing, the

812
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 13: tennis I was playing, all of that. I fed at

813
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 13: all of that, and it came out with a plan

814
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:30,239
Speaker 13: for me of sort of going out about five or

815
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:32,240
Speaker 13: six days a week of doing something.

816
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:35,800
Speaker 9: But it was a lot it was a lot more structured.

817
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 9: But what I found was really different. It was a

818
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 9: lot more responsive. It was a lot more personalized.

819
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 13: I could go back and say, hey, look here's how

820
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:50,719
Speaker 13: I'm feeling, here's what I was thinking, and it would

821
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 13: make adjustments for me.

822
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 9: And that was something I've never really seen before.

823
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 13: You know, if something went wrong, it was able to

824
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 13: be a lot more responsive than before. Actually in this

825
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 13: In the in the process of doing this article, I

826
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 13: talked to some people who were who were developing AI

827
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 13: based fitness apps on the very on the very vanguard

828
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 13: of this technology.

829
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:15,919
Speaker 9: They said, that's actually something they're hoping to be able

830
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:16,719
Speaker 9: to build.

831
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:20,840
Speaker 13: In future additions, So that's actually something It's not really

832
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 13: out there, but that was something really cool. On the downside, though,

833
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 13: AI does have its limitations. You know, at some point

834
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 13: my my AI system started hallucinating. It has a it

835
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:36,879
Speaker 13: has a limit on how much stuff you can tell

836
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 13: it before. It doesn't really know what's important and what's

837
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 13: not important. So you know, it's not necessarily an easy cure.

838
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 13: All this this got got very difficult to be able

839
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 13: to manage.

840
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 9: As we're going through.

841
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:51,880
Speaker 4: All right, Derek, are you gonna go when you do

842
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:54,359
Speaker 4: your next marathon because you know you're gonna or maybe

843
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:57,799
Speaker 4: you're Iron Man or whatever. No, are you going for

844
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,359
Speaker 4: the app, the human or the chat?

845
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:02,359
Speaker 6: Which are you going? If you had to do this again?

846
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 13: Yeah, I'm going for a mix of humans and technology

847
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 13: for sure. You know, you try and figure out how

848
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 13: to get out, how to be moving, how to be

849
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 13: positive and going forward, and any way you do that

850
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 13: is good, but technology alone's not going to get you there.

851
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:22,840
Speaker 9: It can help, though, and I do think that this.

852
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 13: Increase in AI technology is going to maybe make some

853
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 13: of this a little bit more accessible. To the general

854
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 13: public than it has been before, because it's certainly, if

855
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 13: nothing else, it's a lot cheaper than some of the

856
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 13: other options that may be on the table right now.

857
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:44,480
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us on today's Bloomberg This Weekend podcast.

858
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:46,879
Speaker 2: Don't forget to tune in live for the show every

859
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 2: Saturday and Sunday morning, starting at seven am Eastern.

860
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 3: We're on Bloomberg Television Radio and the Bloomberg Business App,

861
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:56,880
Speaker 3: bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, lifestyle,

862
00:41:57,000 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 3: and culture.

863
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:02,440
Speaker 9: Music,