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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. I Am going to be joined

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Speaker 1: by professional better Simon Hunter to talk about the week

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Speaker 1: three NFL games, to talk about our standing in the

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Speaker 1: Draft Kings Pro Football pick Up National Championship. Don't forget

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Speaker 1: we went five and oh in the first week. But

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Speaker 1: oh no, oh, my freaking god. No, the tragedy, the

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Speaker 1: extraordinary agony that is betting the NFL. Simon, you're listening,

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Speaker 1: will introduce you in a second. You'll appreciate this because

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Speaker 1: as we text on Sunday mornings about our games, I'm

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Speaker 1: sitting with my thirteen year old trying to give him

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Speaker 1: a betting education, as every proper young teenage boy should get.

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Speaker 1: So we're talking about all of our picks. We're talking

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Speaker 1: about the overs and the unders and the sides and whatever.

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Speaker 1: And uh then we what, We sit down and we

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Speaker 1: watched Red Zone for like, you know, ten hours, and

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Speaker 1: then we watched the Sunday night game, and in between that,

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Speaker 1: we're watching the Lakers Nuggets game, and we are like

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Speaker 1: having the greatest sports watching day ever, except we watch

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Speaker 1: the Jets in garbage time sneak out another over for

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Speaker 1: the second week in a row, the Jets or two

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Speaker 1: and oh they are undefeated in ruining people's unders this season.

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Speaker 1: We watch Learnard four net when the box are trying

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Speaker 1: to run at the clock score a touchdown to extend

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Speaker 1: the PA the Patriots. The Buccaneers lead, so the pay

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Speaker 1: the Panthers don't cover their eight and a half. And

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Speaker 1: then at night we watched the Patriots and we had

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Speaker 1: them plus three and a half in the contest. Uh,

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Speaker 1: stall out at the one yard line. So Simon Hunter

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Speaker 1: after going five know in the Draft Kings Pro Football

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Speaker 1: pick um contest last week we went two and three.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, when you stick to your stomach, Hey, Chad, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that sucked man. Uh. It was one of those two

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Speaker 1: where it's funny. Like my my other boss, he never

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Speaker 1: really hits me up after like our shows or like

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Speaker 1: what I post stuff on Twitter. He rarely will come in.

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Speaker 1: And I posted our picks and he immediately texted me

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Speaker 1: and said you should be fired for that Chiefs pick.

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Speaker 1: And I wrote back, I know, going against all everything

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Speaker 1: I know and taking the Chiefs here, and he goes,

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Speaker 1: nine cent of the money is on the Chiefs minus

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Speaker 1: eight and a half Vegas is undefeated. That's all he

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Speaker 1: said back and that kind of kind of got me

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Speaker 1: nervous going to the one gain games. I was like, man,

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Speaker 1: he's already calling his shot for this four o'clock game,

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Speaker 1: and I think we were one and one got the

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Speaker 1: back door. I mean, the Eagles one was brutal because

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Speaker 1: it was twenty I think it was, and Carson was driving.

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Speaker 1: You throw a Pixet pick in the end zone and

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Speaker 1: that was the end of that one. Let's what we had.

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Speaker 1: Let's remind it we had. We had the Eagles plus

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Speaker 1: one and a half. We had the Dolphins plus five

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Speaker 1: and a half, we had the Chiefs minus eight and

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Speaker 1: a half. I think we had um the Cardinals minus

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Speaker 1: six and a half, and then we had the Patriots

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Speaker 1: plus three and a half. So yeah, Eagles was heartbreaking,

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Speaker 1: Dolphins was lucky. Well that's when you played the numbers, baby,

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Speaker 1: that was just that numbers, that numbers too big. And

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Speaker 1: then the Cardinals when that was like, I thing gave it.

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Speaker 1: I was my that was my favorite bet last week.

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Speaker 1: That was a no sweat. I mean the minute that

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Speaker 1: game started, Kyle I was running around you go, Okay,

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Speaker 1: this is this is what we expect from the Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: But then as soon as I saw that Tyrod Taylor

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Speaker 1: was out, I was just floored because I love Herbert.

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Speaker 1: I gave it out to our loyal listener, is on

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Speaker 1: Twitter um about a month ago that I liked him

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Speaker 1: for Rookie of the Year. Is a good sleeper at

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Speaker 1: a plus a thousand, nine hundred And when he came in,

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Speaker 1: Chiefs have no tape on this kid. They're literally are

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Speaker 1: running at It wasn't that much difference in offense, but

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Speaker 1: he was He would take actual deep shots, where Taylor

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Speaker 1: would just throwing deep and hope for a passenger perence.

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Speaker 1: But this kid was taking deep shots and putting it

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Speaker 1: rund the money. So I was sweating that Chiefs game,

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Speaker 1: and I gave out to uh. So I did one

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Speaker 1: of my big bets of the year, like one of

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Speaker 1: my four big bets, and so I gave it out

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Speaker 1: to our listener, and it is one of those you

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Speaker 1: gotta you gotta have big bullets because I'm I literally

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Speaker 1: tell my clients, we're putting your whole balance on this bet.

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Speaker 1: You're going for a double up. So it was the

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Speaker 1: Browns money line, San Franz money line, and the chiefs

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Speaker 1: money line. So not only that wait wait wait wait

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Speaker 1: wait wait wait, explain to people a little bit, like

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Speaker 1: so people know earlier this summer when you came on

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Speaker 1: the podcast with me, we do a raise the pays

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Speaker 1: and we give away a prize and and uh, just

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Speaker 1: so people know, like we are doing another phrase that

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Speaker 1: pays this week. Every week Simon is joining the podcast.

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Speaker 1: Every week we are doing a phrase that pays UM

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Speaker 1: And so this week, last week, the phrase the pays

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Speaker 1: was Simon says, Let's go undefeated. As a reminder, you

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Speaker 1: go review the podcast, use the phrase Simon says, let's

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Speaker 1: bounce back, and if we like it and randomly choose it,

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Speaker 1: you will win a free action network cooty. We will

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Speaker 1: announce last week's winner who used Simon says let's go

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Speaker 1: and defeated Um at the end of the show. But

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Speaker 1: one of the prizes we had done earlier in the

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Speaker 1: year was you would give away like one of your

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Speaker 1: three or four biggest bets of the year to a listener.

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Speaker 1: And so this this was one of your biggest bets

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Speaker 1: of the year. Already we're in week two and you're

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Speaker 1: already feeling confident on that right and it's just I

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Speaker 1: it's more that I'm playing the numbers. That's like when

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Speaker 1: I put into my system like the Browns, the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: and San France money lines, they only kicked back that

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Speaker 1: I had a nine percent chance of failing, and so

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Speaker 1: I'm getting plus odds. So for my clients, they like

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Speaker 1: that that's a plus number. And when I give him

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Speaker 1: a double known questions, they all just play blindly because

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Speaker 1: they know that even if this one doesn't hit, the

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Speaker 1: next two will. That's just how I've built up my reputation.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I sent this one out and of course

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Speaker 1: they say nothing. I give it to the Twitter guy

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Speaker 1: and I could tell he was just like the Browns,

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Speaker 1: like money Line, and I know there's a bunch of injuries,

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Speaker 1: so he was kind of a little hesitant about it.

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Speaker 1: But um, you know they rolled that was an easy

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Speaker 1: no sweat, San France easy no sweat, and that Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: When I had given up, I had done the classic

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Speaker 1: turned the phone off because I was just knew I

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Speaker 1: wasn't getting destroyed. Just because like the fact that Bob,

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Speaker 1: like my boss, seating up in the morning about being

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Speaker 1: an idiot about taking the Chiefs, I knew he was

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Speaker 1: just waiting. He was waiting for the charges of win

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Speaker 1: because that was such a trap game that I stepped

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Speaker 1: right into. And sure enough, Patrick Mahomes saved save my

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Speaker 1: save of my bank roll and uh, my client's bank

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Speaker 1: roll with that just unbelievable come back. Unbelievable comeback. But

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Speaker 1: it also it did sort of recalibrate I think, and

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Speaker 1: we'll talk a little bit about this, like the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: can be vulnerable at times in ways that the Ravens

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Speaker 1: appear to not be vulnerable at times. Um. And there

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Speaker 1: seems to be less volatility with the Ravens, and especially

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Speaker 1: as their defense is getting better. And I say that

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Speaker 1: only because like those are the class of the league, right,

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Speaker 1: Like there's no real competition in the NFC. It's not

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Speaker 1: as top heavy as sort of the consistency that we've

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Speaker 1: seen the last two seasons from the Chiefs and the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: Forgetting about the Packers for a second, I'm not that

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Speaker 1: sold on them yet, but so the Ravens to me

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Speaker 1: are already sort of separating themselves a little bit from

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Um And Yeah, that was just that was

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Speaker 1: totally crushing. Anthony Lynn Chris Ravan, one of our analysts

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Speaker 1: who you know and like who is also the co

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Speaker 1: host of the Action Network NFL podcast, which is blowing up.

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Speaker 1: By the way, if people are not listening to that

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Speaker 1: as well as this, then they should be go download,

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Speaker 1: go subscribe the great review Um. He basically says, Anthony

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Speaker 1: Lynn is an automatic fade like he played that game

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Speaker 1: as if he just wants to be a mediocre coach

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Speaker 1: focused on a little bit better than a five record,

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Speaker 1: And the fact that he's saying to Rod Taylor will

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Speaker 1: play again is more indication to that. The fact that

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Speaker 1: he didn't go for it on fourth and one is

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Speaker 1: more of an indication to that, not going forward on

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Speaker 1: fourth on one and overtime. What's your take on sort

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Speaker 1: of the Chargers as a team and Anthony Lynn as

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Speaker 1: a better I think they got No I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: say they got lucky in that game, but I think

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs did sleepwalk. You're just watching that first half.

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Speaker 1: Everything looked out of sorts. They didn't look like they

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Speaker 1: really were there for a win. And he's gonna get

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Speaker 1: a lot of flak eth and allen Um for those statements.

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Speaker 1: But that's just coached off. That's just he's just acting

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Speaker 1: he's just gonna back his quote unquote starting quarterback and Taylor,

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Speaker 1: and he's gonna treat the rookie like he has to

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Speaker 1: earn that position. But everything I saw, that kid earned it.

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Speaker 1: I mean he he looked better than Taylor has his

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Speaker 1: entire career in his first start. So to me, I

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Speaker 1: think it's a no brainer. I think they're gonna keep

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Speaker 1: playing him, but we'll see. He seems like he might

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Speaker 1: be staunched in and he's gonna really start Taylor again.

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Speaker 1: And I don't know if I wanna, I don't want

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Speaker 1: to go too hard about that point on fourth and one.

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Speaker 1: I think he was trying to play a little bit

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Speaker 1: too much of a chess match, thinking that he could

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Speaker 1: get another stop here with his defense and you get

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Speaker 1: the ball back, which thinking against my homes is is

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Speaker 1: losing thinking. I don't I don't know why he was

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Speaker 1: thinking that way, but I'm with Chris, I gotta knock

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Speaker 1: him on that. That's a game that if they would

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Speaker 1: have stolen that one, they would have been one on one,

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Speaker 1: right net. I mean to no, that's that's a game

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Speaker 1: changing scenario for the entire season. So I don't think

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Speaker 1: that he failed his team in that spot. Completely failed

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Speaker 1: his team in that spot. It's disappointing. I actually like him,

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Speaker 1: like as a personality. You know, you get to know

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Speaker 1: these guys watching hard not to He just seems like

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Speaker 1: a guy that I want to root for and I

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Speaker 1: want to be able to coach that team for a

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Speaker 1: long time and to get a lot of opportunities to win.

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Speaker 1: And um, I root for the Chargers as an underdog

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Speaker 1: team in that l A market. You know, playing in

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Speaker 1: that stadium is sort of the second the Clippers of

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Speaker 1: that that stadium. But Jesus Christ Simon, we gotta bounce back.

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Speaker 1: So the good news is we're still seven and three.

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Speaker 1: Were still like in the money in the Draft Kings

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Speaker 1: Pro Football National pick Up, National Championship. But we gotta

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Speaker 1: make some moves, man, we need to find some winners.

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Speaker 1: It's true. And I'm heartbroken that you took that Jets

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Speaker 1: under when I was nice and nice enough to send

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Speaker 1: you two easy overs and that Dallas over in the

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Speaker 1: Green Bay over. But you like unders. You live for

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Speaker 1: understat I don't know why you punish yourself. I'm not

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Speaker 1: the sharpest NiFe from the drawer. I don't have to

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Speaker 1: tell you something like it's like I just sometimes I

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Speaker 1: just make bad decisions. Yeah, Vegas, they're all on these

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Speaker 1: lines kind of early here because they're just like all

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Speaker 1: of us there. I'm in the same way with my

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Speaker 1: system right now. Is I'm trying to learn is like

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Speaker 1: go here with COVID lines. You can see these no fans.

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Speaker 1: I definitely think it's having sluggish effects on some teams

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Speaker 1: where they're not coming out hard, they're starting slow. Uh,

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Speaker 1: these overs have been really cash and I mean these

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Speaker 1: defenses have not been tackling. So it's been kind of

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Speaker 1: funny here to start the year. Vegas is still catching

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Speaker 1: up with everything that's going on with COVID. All right, well, listen,

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Speaker 1: if you see some overs as we go through this

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Speaker 1: list and you feel strongly about them, you know, certainly

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Speaker 1: tell our users don't feel obligated to uh tell our

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Speaker 1: listeners don't feel obligated to stick to the sides. Let's

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Speaker 1: start with Thursday night. We're calling this are back in

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Speaker 1: the money week. We got Jaguars hosting the Dolphins. Jaguars

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Speaker 1: three point favorites. They showed so well this past week,

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Speaker 1: um as did the Dolphins. Like both of these teams

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Speaker 1: are just play hard teams I think. I feel like

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Speaker 1: the line is perfect on this one. Yeah, the classic

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Speaker 1: minus two two and a half minus three just for

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Speaker 1: a home team on Thursday night, and what we were

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Speaker 1: Just like you just said. I love about both these teams.

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Speaker 1: They don't care what the scores. They just keep fighting.

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Speaker 1: They don't care what they're supposed to be, how bad

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Speaker 1: they're supposed to be. And no, everyone knows. I'm one

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Speaker 1: of the biggest jack fans out there. I got plenty

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Speaker 1: of money on their over five and alf I mean

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Speaker 1: five and four and a half for the season win totals,

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Speaker 1: and I do I do. I think a lot of

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Speaker 1: people are gonna roll the Jags here like a no

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Speaker 1: brainer home team on a Thursday night. I'm with them.

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Speaker 1: I like taking bad teams, but it does make me

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Speaker 1: a little nervous where the Dolphins are owing too, and

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about a lot in this upcoming podcast. Statistically

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Speaker 1: owned two teams straight up and two teams against eight

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Speaker 1: t s against the spread. They do good in Week three.

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Speaker 1: I think it's like sixty two or sixty three pcent

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Speaker 1: out of cover rate. So this is one of those

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Speaker 1: where I'm gonna roll Jacksonville. I like the bad team

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Speaker 1: at home, but I don't feel confident enough to put

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Speaker 1: it in our in our picks, definitely not. And I

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Speaker 1: kind of like Miami. I actually think I trust Ryan

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Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick more than I trust Gardner Minshew fits magic, magic, magic,

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Speaker 1: but more important to have a starting Their best starting

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Speaker 1: corner is out Miami. I believe that's what Diggs went off.

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Speaker 1: That's when they switching a rookie. That's when Diggs I think,

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Speaker 1: went for against this rookie. So it is that is

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Speaker 1: something we'll keep an eye on. Forget my analysis, then

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Speaker 1: let's move on. Let's transition to the early games. We've

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Speaker 1: got the Steelers minus three and a half getting about

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Speaker 1: the best eight five pent of the money still early. Um,

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Speaker 1: that's the draft Kings number three and a half. This

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Speaker 1: feels this feels to me like the Steelers, and it's

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Speaker 1: it's one of those where it will hold your nose

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Speaker 1: kind of bet all the numbers. Everything you read, it's

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Speaker 1: gonna say how Houston is terrible, their alignes terrible, Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: has arguably the best line of football. They're healthy. But

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Speaker 1: I took this number of five and a half on

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Speaker 1: Sunday night with Houston looking at They just played the Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: who you just said, he thinks one of the best

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Speaker 1: teams on football, and then the Ravens, who you just said,

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Speaker 1: he thinks one of the best teams on football. So

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Speaker 1: we're not gonna get lower value than you are right

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Speaker 1: now in the Houston every everyone's gonna be off Houston.

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Speaker 1: Houston has looked terrible. They've just been abused two games

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Speaker 1: in a row, didn't cover, didn't win straight up. So

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Speaker 1: it's back to that number I told you about. They

278
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Speaker 1: have a sixty chance of covering this. So that's one

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Speaker 1: of those where you're gonna bet this game. You gotta

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Speaker 1: take Texas and trust the numbers that Houston is going

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Speaker 1: to cover that number. I know, don't tell me that.

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Speaker 1: Do not do not tell me that I've got a

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Speaker 1: bet on Houston. I've I've assiduously avoided Houston this year,

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Speaker 1: and you know what, other than this past weekend. So

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Speaker 1: in the first weekend, I felt great, like I didn't

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Speaker 1: have any of that Texas heart Texas heartbreak. We're like,

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Speaker 1: I'm miserable watching a team underperform. So don't give me

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Speaker 1: this bullshit. I know. I'm just trying to see the

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Speaker 1: fans right, this is this is a trap you got

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Speaker 1: you gotta go Texans here, all right? Do we like

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Speaker 1: him enough to be in the in the contest um?

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Speaker 1: It might be a little too sharp, I'll put on

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Speaker 1: the side for now. It could. It's a question mark

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Speaker 1: for us. Uh. Next game Titans Vikings Vikings plus two

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Speaker 1: and a half at home against the Titans. Dude, you

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Speaker 1: know what I'm gonna say here, come on, I know

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Speaker 1: and I know what you What I'm gonna say is

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Speaker 1: that this is one of those positions you're supposed to

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Speaker 1: take Minnesota at home, but there's no fans. So that's

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Speaker 1: what's really throwing me for a loop. Here go is

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Speaker 1: this is such an auto easy play in a normal

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Speaker 1: season with fans at home, but without it, the Titans

303
00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:11,600
Speaker 1: should steam all these guys there at every position they're better.

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Speaker 1: I even think Tannehill is a better quarterback than Kirk

305
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Speaker 1: right now. I think that something's wrong in Minnesota. Like

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Speaker 1: we were talking last week, they're using these first four

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Speaker 1: weeks as a preseason kind of for their defense. And

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Speaker 1: their defense actually even played terrible against the Colts. Their

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Speaker 1: offense was terrible. I couldn't believe how bad Kirk was

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Speaker 1: so it makes me nervous that it's again that situation

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Speaker 1: of an own two team own two against the spread,

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Speaker 1: and we want to go against them. So that's the

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Speaker 1: only thing that gives me really big policy with the Titans.

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Speaker 1: All right, then we're taking it out because I kind

315
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Speaker 1: of feel like this is the spot for the Vikings,

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Speaker 1: and what we've seen with the Titans two weeks in

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Speaker 1: a row is not really being able to put away

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Speaker 1: bad teams exactly, you know. And I don't know what

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Speaker 1: that is a function of UM against the Broncos and

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Speaker 1: against the against the Jaguars UM. So I don't think

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Speaker 1: we can in good conscious keep this team on our list.

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Speaker 1: And and you and I are and you and I

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Speaker 1: are split, we are I mean, I know you like

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Speaker 1: the Titans, but you and I are split. Alright, This

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Speaker 1: next one, Oh my god, Bears Falcons Uh Falcons at

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Speaker 1: Atlanta are three and a half point favorites. What the freak?

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Speaker 1: What the dude? Dude? That Cowboys game was re ridiculous,

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Speaker 1: But it proved every single thing we've been saying about

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Speaker 1: the Falcons, dan Quinn, Matt Ryan. They are a sugar

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Speaker 1: rush of a franchise. They are a team that will

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Speaker 1: have no relevance. Generations from now you will think about

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Speaker 1: Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones and they

333
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Speaker 1: will be thought of as less than the Dan Fouts

334
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Speaker 1: era Chargers. Yeah, I think people are gonna remember them

335
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Speaker 1: for fantasy. That's what. That's what Atlanta is there a

336
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Speaker 1: fantasy gold mine other than that. Yeah, this is uh,

337
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Speaker 1: this is gonna be one of these games where everyone's

338
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Speaker 1: gonna come in on Atlanta. After last week, Bears haven't

339
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Speaker 1: looked good. Atlanta looked like they're right there. It's just

340
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Speaker 1: like you just said that was didn't you give out

341
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Speaker 1: live Cowboys money line? I did, and I gave it

342
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,760
Speaker 1: out early. It was like they were down, they were

343
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Speaker 1: down twenty nothing, and I said, I said, now look,

344
00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:46,199
Speaker 1: I said, look, Cowboys are plus four. You have to

345
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:49,720
Speaker 1: take this. And it turns out I should have waited

346
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Speaker 1: until the middle of the fourth quarter even even that,

347
00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 1: like I didn't. I think I saw it about twenty

348
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:58,480
Speaker 1: minutes after you posted it and I got Dallas. I

349
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,600
Speaker 1: think plus five fifty only like I only threw a

350
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:03,119
Speaker 1: grain on it, but I was like, I like this angle.

351
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:05,240
Speaker 1: As soon as that fourth quarter started, I go that

352
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Speaker 1: that's dead. There is no mathematical way they come back

353
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Speaker 1: and cover that number. I saw our good friend Darren

354
00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 1: tweeted out someone put like thirty five k or something

355
00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 1: like that, live on Atlanta and maybe like a three

356
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:21,080
Speaker 1: grand or a grand, and that will So people don't

357
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,520
Speaker 1: bet that way, don't don't don't play it that scary.

358
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Speaker 1: That's great. Let a second, it was plus five fifty.

359
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:29,280
Speaker 1: You threw a grand on it, So you want like

360
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:34,919
Speaker 1: bucks on that game? Yeah, but I mean I told you,

361
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 1: man that the amount of money I had on that

362
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:40,639
Speaker 1: Brown's Sam Franchie's game, I'd be I'd be dead. I

363
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:44,160
Speaker 1: might be dead after that one because I was literally

364
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:47,520
Speaker 1: like so confident, like I just said out to like

365
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:49,160
Speaker 1: all the all the people, and I was just like

366
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Speaker 1: like I showed my own tickets. I was like I

367
00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:52,919
Speaker 1: probably had around a hundred k, not even joking on

368
00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:55,399
Speaker 1: like that game, and I was just all in because

369
00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:57,440
Speaker 1: I was just there's no way. So I think some

370
00:19:57,560 --> 00:19:59,040
Speaker 1: two that there was it was like over a seven

371
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:02,679
Speaker 1: figure swing and on books from that chief skin that

372
00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:05,440
Speaker 1: field goal, like on teasers and stuff like that. I joked,

373
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:07,240
Speaker 1: that's probably half from my clients because they were just

374
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,480
Speaker 1: all into like no one was really I gave out

375
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,080
Speaker 1: other bets, no one tallied these other bets. They're all

376
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,879
Speaker 1: just on the one big bet. So yeah, man, I

377
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:18,880
Speaker 1: was five grand, But it's great. You wann't have five grand.

378
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:20,919
Speaker 1: I'm super excited for you. But if you have that

379
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:25,360
Speaker 1: much money riding on that kind of bet, like are

380
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:27,640
Speaker 1: you done for the year, Like you're playing from such

381
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:31,359
Speaker 1: a positive at this point? Uh, not really becase. Honest,

382
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:33,400
Speaker 1: I probably won one was that much Week one because

383
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 1: I couldn't miss Week one, especially with like the I

384
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 1: like giving out two team money lines. That's like my

385
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:40,600
Speaker 1: favorite thing to give out. So I just feel like

386
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,360
Speaker 1: any favorite you could think of, I like stacking them.

387
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 1: So if I felt really good last week about Pittsburgh's moneyline,

388
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 1: Green Bay's money line, I'll stack those and maybe I'll

389
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:50,919
Speaker 1: throw in the Chiefs or I'll throw in Baltimore and

390
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 1: other things with that. So week one none of those

391
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:57,600
Speaker 1: missed all those money lines because I wasn't on the

392
00:20:57,600 --> 00:20:59,040
Speaker 1: Colts money line like a lot of people, where I

393
00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:02,119
Speaker 1: was on the Jags money line. So when you have

394
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 1: when I had a Week one like that, That's what

395
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:05,440
Speaker 1: I'm telling my clients as I say take everything we

396
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 1: one week one because you're not affecting your original bank

397
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 1: roll for the season and just put all of it

398
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:12,120
Speaker 1: on this one big bet. That's the reason I took

399
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 1: an early big bet like that. It was just because

400
00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:16,680
Speaker 1: I'm in a good mode. I'm seeing the game pretty good.

401
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 1: Obviously I should the bet here. We went two and

402
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 1: three last week. But uh, for the most part, I've

403
00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 1: been pretty spot on with like these money lines and

404
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:27,520
Speaker 1: things like that. Where last week was a fluke week

405
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,919
Speaker 1: where it was what fifteen in or No. Fourteen and

406
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:36,640
Speaker 1: two favorites money lines, So I got lucky on that one. Yeah,

407
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 1: you shipped the bed on the five games that mattered,

408
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,200
Speaker 1: and you did great on all your big money bets.

409
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:47,159
Speaker 1: Nice job, Nice job, Simon Hunter. It's still top forty

410
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:52,640
Speaker 1: in the week two. That's all right the money. I mean, well,

411
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 1: are we skipping the Bears Falcons? Like, are we just

412
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,679
Speaker 1: not including it? It's up to you. I love the Bears.

413
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 1: I'm hoping this number keeps own because maybe the public

414
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 1: will come in with all the other sharp money and

415
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 1: just keep betting the land up because I allly know

416
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:06,400
Speaker 1: their takeing one. I just told you the statistic they're

417
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,160
Speaker 1: own two straight up, and they're one on one right

418
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 1: now in the spread. So a lot of people like

419
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 1: this Falcons, right. I like the value on the Bears.

420
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:16,200
Speaker 1: I think the Bears defense can actually get stops where

421
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:18,600
Speaker 1: I don't have any faith in the Falcons defense to

422
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 1: get stops. Well, I gotta tell you, I kind of

423
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,480
Speaker 1: like the Bears on this side too. All right, let's

424
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Speaker 1: put them in for now, all right. Uh, the injury

425
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:32,120
Speaker 1: riddled San Francisco forty Niners visiting the break your heart

426
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:35,399
Speaker 1: New York Giants. Look, even at four and a half,

427
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,880
Speaker 1: the Giants are four and a half point underdogs here

428
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,360
Speaker 1: even at four and a half, um, there's no way.

429
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: And and right now the Giants getting you know, a

430
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 1: preponderance of the money, about six of the money coming

431
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 1: in on the Giants and the tickets. So what this

432
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,440
Speaker 1: is telling you is that wise guys like the Giants

433
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 1: right now. I'm not betting Danny dimes um because in

434
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:03,639
Speaker 1: two games now I have seen him, uh put the

435
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 1: Giants in a position to both win and lose, and

436
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,120
Speaker 1: he's just not going to be a guy that, like

437
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 1: you can count on to make the right decisions in

438
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 1: the moments when you need the right decision to be

439
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,879
Speaker 1: made for your bet. It's just to me, he is

440
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 1: a no bet on quarterback until he gets his turnovers

441
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 1: under control. Right. Everything you said there is right. I

442
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:24,679
Speaker 1: think maybe the sharp money came in early because they

443
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,119
Speaker 1: were all bank on Nick Mullins making that start, because

444
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 1: he was horrible against the Jets. If the Jets could

445
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:32,919
Speaker 1: actually stop a running back, then that might have been

446
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 1: a close game they could cover. But they're giving up

447
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 1: like fifty yard carriers on third and twenties there. The

448
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:41,479
Speaker 1: Jets are just horrible. So I'm with them on the

449
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,120
Speaker 1: Giants here early because that's the value if Nick. If

450
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 1: it is, Jimmy's gonna be out, Nick boss out. I

451
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 1: know another first round. I think Solomon Thomas is out,

452
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 1: Sam Frands banged up, and they're they're probably having nightmares

453
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 1: about this turf field that they just played on and

454
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 1: now they're about to play again at Met Life. So

455
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,159
Speaker 1: I like that number. We can wait. I know you

456
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 1: don't want to play it in, so we probably won't

457
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:05,719
Speaker 1: put it in. But if it comes Sunday and they

458
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:07,439
Speaker 1: got Nick Molans and it will be hard not to

459
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 1: put the Giants in a four and a half. That's

460
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: just good value against a backup quarterback that's terrible. All right, listen,

461
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 1: here's what we're gonna do. We're gonna do exactly what

462
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 1: you just said. We're gonna wait because I don't want

463
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:25,119
Speaker 1: sort of my biases and what I've seen to dictate

464
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 1: like making the wrong choice against the Math, just because

465
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,119
Speaker 1: I'm going to be miserable on Sunday having to watch

466
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 1: this team. If we gets the right side on Sunday,

467
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 1: it's going to be the right side and I'm not

468
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 1: gonna do anything to change that. Um, So let's keep

469
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 1: them in there as like a maybe for now. Yeah,

470
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,440
Speaker 1: this is one of the few games I was able

471
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:45,199
Speaker 1: to work on this morning. And if like we got

472
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 1: Nick Molins and this this line should be minus two,

473
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 1: minus two and a half same frame, So we're getting

474
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 1: good value there if it is him on the Giant.

475
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 1: So yeah, we'll just hold off on that one, all right. Uh.

476
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 1: The Las Vegas Radars coming off a big win last

477
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 1: night against Drew Brees, who really look, it's like he

478
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 1: couldn't throw the ball downfield and was hobbling like my

479
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 1: eight h five and a half on the road against

480
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 1: the New England Patriots who completely broke our heart Simon.

481
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: They were down with five minutes left or thirty five

482
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,679
Speaker 1: minutes left. It's one of the first times in my

483
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 1: life I just turned it off. I'm like, you know what,

484
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,920
Speaker 1: there's there's no I cannot see the math in which

485
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 1: they get an opportunity to even cover this game. So

486
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 1: I went to bed and did not realize until the

487
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 1: morning how heartbreaking it was and how much I'm how

488
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,359
Speaker 1: happy I was that I just didn't do it, that

489
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 1: I didn't stay up to watch this game and be heartbroken.

490
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 1: That was horrible, and it was one of those I

491
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 1: was trying to go to bed too, but I just

492
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 1: kept picking up my phone and throwing on like the

493
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 1: Ottawa ever sports happened watching the game, and sure enough

494
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,119
Speaker 1: Cam just kept making like they got a good stop

495
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 1: the Patriots, and they got the ball back. Cam had

496
00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:00,119
Speaker 1: a great drive, gets down to the one, and I

497
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 1: don't hate the play call they took it. They did

498
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:03,880
Speaker 1: Cam from a shotgun. But when you have a guy

499
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 1: like that, I don't I don't get why he just

500
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 1: to go up to the line and just try to

501
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 1: jump it or anything like that. It was just weird.

502
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 1: Adams really just he was a game changer for the

503
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 1: Seahawks in that game. There was a couple of times

504
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 1: where you could really feel his effect on the Seahawks

505
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 1: that he is just the highest of talent of safety

506
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 1: and he's a game change in that game. So this

507
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 1: week it's an easy pick where you got our team

508
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 1: that just went on the road. The Patriots lost coming

509
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,360
Speaker 1: home against the team that just blew out a team

510
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 1: they shouldn't have blown out, coming all the way up north.

511
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 1: Feeling good on a short week. I love this number.

512
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 1: I got it seven and a half. So I think

513
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 1: the Raiders, the public's to me betting them, people who

514
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 1: live in Vegas for me betting them because this feels

515
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 1: like a high number, especially if you're seeing their offense

516
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,400
Speaker 1: looks so good against New Orleans. But I'm gonna back

517
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 1: to Patriots here. Wow, you feel that good about it?

518
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 1: I do. I just feel like it's a great, great

519
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 1: spot where we're gonna get in value on the Patriots

520
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 1: just because they people should be behind, and they played

521
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 1: the Seahawks really well for I would say three quarters

522
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 1: of that game they had. They had a good quarter

523
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 1: there in the second quarter where they just didn't they

524
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 1: were just letting rust whatever you want. I mean, he

525
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson is the next level where he only won

526
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 1: by five points. Their cars nowhere near the talent Russell

527
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:24,640
Speaker 1: Wilson is. I think this secondary will have a much

528
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 1: better game here against the Raiders than they did against Seattle.

529
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,400
Speaker 1: So Russell Wilson and Jamoral Adams, that was the kind

530
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 1: of game where you wanted to have bought stock and

531
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,640
Speaker 1: in Russell Wilson is the m v P before that game,

532
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 1: because that is a sort of season narrative setting game

533
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 1: and broadcast where Chris Raybon had written about this last week,

534
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 1: like letting Russ cook right and how dominant he is

535
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 1: and how how all those old tropes about what you

536
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,880
Speaker 1: think you need to be a championship team he completely

537
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,359
Speaker 1: estimates because of the way he plays, like you know,

538
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 1: the the value of a good offensive line, things like that,

539
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 1: because he's such a game changer, he can do things

540
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 1: so differently, so all of a sudden And the one

541
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 1: thing he noted was the fact he's never gotten an

542
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 1: m v P bot. And Chris collins Worth talked about

543
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 1: this in the broadcast, like he said he voted for

544
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 1: him one year, but he sent his ballot in late

545
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 1: so it didn't count, and now all of a sudden,

546
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 1: like the narrative is going to be wait a second,

547
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson never got him a VP vote. So right now,

548
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 1: I'm telling you, right now, m v P for the

549
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 1: NFL is coming down to Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray.

550
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. I think what's going to hurt

551
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 1: them is the fact that they're in that division where

552
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 1: there is no easy out. There's once later in the

553
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 1: season they're all playing each other. We'll really get a

554
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 1: good read on this, but if things keep going the

555
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 1: way they are, it's gonna be tough not to give

556
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 1: it to Lamar again, just because that team is hammed,

557
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 1: like you said, and it's been two years now there

558
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:00,080
Speaker 1: Hammed so sale Lamari was able to go for a

559
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 1: team and two again and Russ has a great year,

560
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 1: he swel them four, they're probably gonna give it to

561
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: They're probably gonna give it to him again. So I'm

562
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:11,120
Speaker 1: still with you that I do love Russell, but I'm

563
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 1: still on Lamar from VP train. Matt Mitchell producer, Matt Mitchell,

564
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 1: can you give me a favorite while we're doing this podcast?

565
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 1: Look up the odds for Kyler Murray to win the

566
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 1: m v P and the Cardinals to win the NFC West,

567
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 1: Because I'm going to counter your narrative here, Simon and

568
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 1: say that whoever's whichever quarterback wins the NFC West will

569
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 1: win the NFL m v P this year. You got it.

570
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell is gonna look that up alright, So Patriots,

571
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 1: strong love for the Patriots. I could get behind that

572
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 1: Eagles five and a half at home against the Bengals.

573
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 1: Good God, this is a train wreck of a team, Simon,

574
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 1: Hunter in your backyard, Uh, Carson wentz, like you mentioned,

575
00:29:57,520 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 1: through that pick when they really had a chance to

576
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 1: like they were playing well and they had a chance

577
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 1: to do some damage there and never got it back.

578
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 1: After Carson went through that pick in the end zone

579
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 1: and watching that game, Carson just looks scared. You had

580
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 1: a couple of times when you could have stepped up

581
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 1: got her first down by running it where he could

582
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: have stepped up hit a guy deep. But he's panicking,

583
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 1: he's doing short tosses. He's not really letting the game

584
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 1: come to him. Like the year it's about two years

585
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 1: ago now, the year he should have won MDP that

586
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 1: he towards a c L. So I can't touch this game.

587
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 1: If if you need me to pick a side, I'm

588
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 1: gonna lean Philadelphia just because of the statistic I gave

589
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 1: you that their own two straight up, their own two

590
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 1: against the spread. And it's still a rookie quarterback coming

591
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 1: on the road to play a veteran defense for the

592
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 1: most part. So I'll back to the US here, but

593
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 1: I would not at all, uh put them in our picks.

594
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 1: By the way, the money is coming in on the Eagles,

595
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 1: the bets. The public is backing the Joe Burrow led

596
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals, probably because they loved watching him throw sixty

597
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 1: passes and sneak in the back door. Another disgusting loss

598
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 1: while we wanted in our survivor pool and our joint

599
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 1: draftking survivor pool. Um a really heartbreaking loss for the Browns. Uh.

600
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 1: In terms of being what was it, I think they

601
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 1: were I think it was six, five and a half

602
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 1: or six. And it was funny we started with survivor

603
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 1: pool already down to seventy thousand. Oh my god. Two

604
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 1: weeks in seventy crazy unbelievable Washington football team visiting said

605
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns. Uh Browns are a touchdown favorite. This kind

606
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 1: of makes sense to me, Like it's almost like, you know,

607
00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 1: there's that transitive property, right. So the Washington football team

608
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 1: plays the Eagles in Week one, then the Eagles blow

609
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 1: up against the Rams in Week two. The Washington football

610
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 1: team just looks terrible in their Week two games. Like

611
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 1: it turns out the Washington football team is bad, but

612
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 1: the Eagles are really bad. So the number of a

613
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 1: touchdown kind of makes sense to me against the Brown's

614
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:29,479
Speaker 1: team that UH performed admirably against the Bengals, an equally

615
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 1: bad team, and different books have this up to seven

616
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 1: and a half now with Washington. So when I look

617
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: at this football team there obviously there's the strength of

618
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 1: the whole team is that D line. And that's why

619
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 1: I like Kyler so much last week. He can expose

620
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 1: the D line like that because he's so quick he

621
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 1: can get around that stuff. Well, we got Baker, who's

622
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: a first read quarterback that stands back there like a

623
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 1: statue for the most part, he doesn't scramble much. I

624
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 1: do like this number a lot with Washington. The only

625
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 1: thing that's giving me hesitation it's their back to back

626
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 1: road games. So seven and a half, that's really enticing

627
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 1: because the Browns they're not a team that can hold

628
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 1: onto these leads that Burrow looked incredible against them passing

629
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 1: because they're really banged up right now, the Browns in

630
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 1: the second day. So I'm big here on Washington, but

631
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 1: I get it they're so ugly we don't have to

632
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 1: put them in. Well, dude, you're the professional like this.

633
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 1: This is part of the game. Is we're not supposed

634
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 1: to bring a public mindset to these things because it's

635
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 1: it's people like me that would say, I'm not betting

636
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 1: the Giants. I'm not betting Washington. Like being a professional

637
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 1: better means you gotta bet the teams that you gotta

638
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 1: hold your nose on because that's where the value is

639
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 1: going to be. It's true if you're telling me Washington

640
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 1: is like according to your models, where where do you

641
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 1: have this game? I got six, so I got pretty

642
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 1: much we're gonna if it goes to seven, half, we're

643
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 1: gonna point the half of value. That's why I do

644
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 1: really like Washington here because it's people are buying in

645
00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 1: on the Browns again, they're buying high and no one

646
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 1: wants to back Washington after they just got dominated by

647
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 1: what we were just talking about, maybe the m VP

648
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 1: of the league and Kyler Murray. So I do like

649
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:10,359
Speaker 1: this Washington number here, we can put it in. All right,

650
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:12,720
Speaker 1: let's put it in. Let's put it in. We're putting

651
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 1: it in. So ugly Bills two and a half against

652
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:30,400
Speaker 1: the Rams in Buffalo, dropping money coming in and I'm

653
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:34,399
Speaker 1: gonna back the Bills here. Uh, the Rams are gonna

654
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,479
Speaker 1: get the hype because they've looked really good two weeks

655
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 1: in a row. Let's go over here. They just beat

656
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 1: they beat the Cowboys, who have a horrible defense apparently,

657
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 1: and then they beat the Eagles, who might be one

658
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:52,360
Speaker 1: of the worst teams in football. And it's tough with

659
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 1: the Bills. I know, They've just played back to back

660
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 1: divisional games against two of the worst teams in their division.

661
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 1: And Josh Allen had moments where he looks really great.

662
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 1: He can get outside, he can throw on the just

663
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 1: on a rope right on time to the digs and

664
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 1: look great. But there's other times where he just misses

665
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:12,400
Speaker 1: guy's wide open, their attend free in front of him,

666
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 1: and he does stupid things. Still, Josh Allen so I'm

667
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 1: gonna back the Bills, but we don't. I don't want

668
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 1: to put them in our competition. I think it's too risky,

669
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 1: not knowing what Josh Allen, We're gonna get on that

670
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 1: on Sunday. I totally agree with you. I don't even

671
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,800
Speaker 1: want to talk about this game. Let's move on to

672
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 1: another game. That is just disgusting. This is like make

673
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 1: you throw up your lunch in your mouth, disgusting, honest

674
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,799
Speaker 1: to God. Like you're telling me the Jets and the

675
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:46,359
Speaker 1: Colts at plus seven, the Jets are visiting Indianapolis and

676
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:50,760
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers. What do we do here? So I got

677
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 1: I got this line at ten and a half now

678
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 1: with the Jets, and I don't even know how many

679
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 1: bets I did. I did a lot with the Colts

680
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:00,759
Speaker 1: money line. I mean, it's been definitely be in our

681
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 1: survivor pool this week. It's a perfect week to just

682
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 1: to use the Colts against the worst team in football. UM,

683
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 1: normal year, not quarantine. This is a trap. This is

684
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 1: the time where you take the Jets after they have

685
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:15,359
Speaker 1: just been dominated two games in a row. You're been

686
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 1: on the bounce back. But the Jets right now remind

687
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:20,879
Speaker 1: me of Miami Dolphins. Last year, the Dolphins. Every week

688
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 1: they're losing by like forty points. To start the year.

689
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 1: They were just horrible until that kind of got healthy

690
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 1: and clicked later in the season. So I'm big on

691
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 1: fading the Jets here. But that's way too many points

692
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 1: the back Folk rivers that minus tend and a half.

693
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 1: I'm cool to just staying away. Yeah, I want to

694
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 1: stay away. You're right, it's a ten and a half.

695
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:39,720
Speaker 1: I looked at the opening number, so it's already moved.

696
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 1: It's already moved three and a half points. Yeah, the Jets.

697
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 1: The Jets are done right now. Uh, next game in

698
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 1: the late late game window, Panthers Chargers. Chargers are what

699
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 1: do we see? Six and a half? Maybe a touchdown? Um,

700
00:36:56,280 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 1: a ridiculous amount of money. Of the money coming coming

701
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 1: in on the Panthers, Matt Mitchell, are we gonna walk

702
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 1: into the hornets nest on this one? I think so.

703
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 1: I'm walking to a fucking hornets nest? All right now,

704
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,359
Speaker 1: be my companion. I need you to make me help

705
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 1: them be jealous of me. Of the money coming in

706
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,360
Speaker 1: on the Panthers. Right now, they are seven point dogs

707
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 1: playing without Christian McCaffrey on the road at Los Angeles.

708
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:26,879
Speaker 1: Tell me why in the world would money be coming

709
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 1: in on the Panthers here, Simon Hunter, that's shocking that

710
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 1: that that higher percentage, because must the public must not

711
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 1: want to touch this game at all, So that's that's

712
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 1: just pure sharp money. It sounds like to me, Um

713
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 1: from their angle, I think Teddy Bridgewater at seven that

714
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 1: was a good number because in no world are the

715
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 1: charges blowing anyone out there. There ain't gonna be an

716
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,360
Speaker 1: easy backdoor team. It feels like the whole year. We

717
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 1: might have just saw them play the game of the

718
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 1: year for them last week, like that was their super

719
00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 1: Bowl and you got the Panthers coming off a divisional

720
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 1: blown Outlaws. So I'm with them. I backed the Panthers

721
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 1: here with the points. Um, I would definitely wait to

722
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 1: see what QB starting. I feel honestly better when Taylor

723
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 1: is starting. I do Herbert, So I would wait on

724
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 1: that number if you're gonna bet it. But you like

725
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 1: the Panthers in that spot, I do. I think that

726
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 1: it's after like a again, they just had where it

727
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:25,360
Speaker 1: was close and they made a couple of little mistakes

728
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 1: where it made it turn into a blowout. They should

729
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 1: have covered that number. I think you're getting good value here.

730
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:31,880
Speaker 1: On the next the following the week after, the Chargers

731
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 1: should have won against the Chiefs on this number. This,

732
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 1: this number should be three and a half four. Are

733
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 1: you saying we should put this in? Is that you're

734
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:43,880
Speaker 1: saying I put the Panthers in for now? Yeah? You would, dude.

735
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 1: Oh my god, the Hornets nest theory has worked out.

736
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 1: We are going in with the Panthers. Man, We're gonna

737
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 1: come out of this with a ledger that looks like Panthers,

738
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 1: Washington Football team, and Giants, and we are going to

739
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 1: have the worst, most uncomfortable Sunday of our lives. By

740
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:07,399
Speaker 1: the way, UH Producer Matt Mitchell, producer Extraordinaire looked up

741
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:13,920
Speaker 1: the Cardinals odds to win the NFC West, the Super Bowl, UH,

742
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 1: and the NFC and Carr and Kyler's MVP ods. Kyler

743
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 1: is fourteen to one to the to win the MVP

744
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 1: right now, so UH, that's still still great value. The

745
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:28,400
Speaker 1: odds to win the NFC West about their plus it

746
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 1: looks like three fifty. They are eleven to one to

747
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 1: win the NFC and to one to win um the

748
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. So if you like the Cards to win

749
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:42,400
Speaker 1: the NFC West, you might as well bet Kyler to

750
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:44,799
Speaker 1: win MVP because if he wins, and if he they

751
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 1: win the NFC West, he will have won the m

752
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 1: v P, and um, you might as well bet him.

753
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 1: If you like him to win the NFC too, you

754
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:54,279
Speaker 1: might as well bet Kyler to win MVP, because that's

755
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 1: what's gonna have to happen, uh, in order for them

756
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 1: to do that. Fourteen to one. That is an interesting

757
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 1: a little that is. And another thing I like this

758
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 1: week is if if you if you like doing these

759
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:11,000
Speaker 1: weird bets with divisions, I really like san Fran coming forth.

760
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,280
Speaker 1: So what you can do this week is you can wait,

761
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 1: let san Fran hopefully beat the Giants. They'll be two

762
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:19,399
Speaker 1: on one, and then you can take them to coming

763
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 1: fourth in the division. You'll get a good value on that,

764
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 1: because it is pretty good value right now because they're

765
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 1: all bunched up there. But early in the year I

766
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 1: really thought San Fran it was gonna be the fourth

767
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 1: team of that division. We talked earlier year. I like

768
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:33,359
Speaker 1: they're under for wins and everything like that, and from

769
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 1: what I've seen from the Rams, the Seahawks and the Cardinals.

770
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 1: These teams are all humming. The Cardinals. If you look

771
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:41,239
Speaker 1: at their upcoming schedule, they could be six and uh

772
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks. So I think that's a

773
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 1: good value what you're talking about right now. Taking Kyler

774
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 1: fourteen to one, fourteen to one the Draft Kings by

775
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:52,800
Speaker 1: far along the side of anywhere Matt Mitchell looked fourteen

776
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 1: to one at DraftKings. Okay, so let's move on from

777
00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:02,880
Speaker 1: the Hornets nest. Let's go to Cowboys traveling across the

778
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:06,399
Speaker 1: country coming off the greatest onside kick in history. They

779
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 1: are four and a half point dogs right now to

780
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks. This feels like a blowout, yeah if

781
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 1: if it does. Um, it also gives me pause where

782
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, like they showed they're they're gonna keep fighting.

783
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 1: They might be a good backdoor team. But like I

784
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:31,839
Speaker 1: could see the Seahawks being up eleven or twelve at

785
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 1: the end of the game and the Cowboys scoring, scoring

786
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 1: with thirty seconds left to make it five. So it

787
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 1: makes me a little nervous. Um, I'm sure all the tickets,

788
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:43,359
Speaker 1: all the money are coming on the Seahawks as well.

789
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 1: That's gonna be a big public about this week. Um

790
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,320
Speaker 1: not yeah, I mean it's early. Look it's only Tuesday afternoon.

791
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 1: Um right now, the money's coming out of the Cowboys. Wow,

792
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 1: it's still early, like by look it's a four game

793
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 1: on Sunday. By Sunday off. I'm sure the money will

794
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:05,320
Speaker 1: the tickets. I'm sorry, the tickets are coming in on Seattle.

795
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:08,879
Speaker 1: The money is coming in and the Cowboys there you go, right,

796
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 1: So that that's that makes more sense. I made a mistake, Simon.

797
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:19,440
Speaker 1: We're all human. Apparently you are because you went two

798
00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 1: and three last week. Hey, oh, Nerd, that fucker. I

799
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:27,760
Speaker 1: think your burner account keeps coming at me on Twitter?

800
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 1: Is that who that is? That's you keep re tweeting.

801
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 1: I love it, Like anytime they come at me. I

802
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 1: just like this stuff. It's like, fade me then I'm

803
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 1: so terrible, fade me, become a millionaire. Fading me if

804
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 1: I'm so bad. You are like looking into the maw

805
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:45,280
Speaker 1: of gambling Twitter and saying, screw you. I don't care.

806
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:48,359
Speaker 1: I've got a great life. I've already proven it. I

807
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:51,839
Speaker 1: have not fun. No. I like when they come at

808
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:54,359
Speaker 1: me because it's just like, yeah, I'm a phony fade mate,

809
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:55,839
Speaker 1: go a gets me. Let me know how that works

810
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 1: out for you. So that's why I love it, and

811
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 1: I do too. I think it's right. I think it's

812
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:03,920
Speaker 1: totally great. Meanwhile, I made a mistake. We're gonna move

813
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:06,320
Speaker 1: on and we're gonna say, do we like the Seahawks

814
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 1: in this spot or do we just want to stay

815
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 1: away because we're worried about sort of the Cowboys ability

816
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 1: to backdoor this thing. Yeah, let's stay away. I'm a

817
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 1: little worried about the back door with this one. Well,

818
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 1: now we've got our favorite team in football, Like you know,

819
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals are five and a half point favorites

820
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 1: at home. The numbers moved up from three and a half.

821
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 1: Not a surprise because you've got the majority of the

822
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 1: tickets coming in on the Cardinals right now against the

823
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 1: Detroit Lions, who are really looking like a train wreck.

824
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 1: But there is no But I actually don't know why

825
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 1: we wouldn't back the Cardinals here. Yeah, we're playing with

826
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:47,440
Speaker 1: fire if we do it again. Um, I'm not totally

827
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 1: against it because I can easily see Kyler covering that

828
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 1: number against a really banged up lines defense and the

829
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 1: sharps are coming in on this number, so I think

830
00:43:57,080 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 1: it opens six and a half seven. Now it's down

831
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:00,440
Speaker 1: to five and a half, even though a lot of

832
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:03,919
Speaker 1: the bets are own Cardinals, and I think they're doing

833
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 1: they're they're banking on what I would talk about earlier

834
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 1: with the owen two oh and two, like oh and

835
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 1: two against the spread, owing two straight up. The lines

836
00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 1: are due here to cover a number, But I still

837
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 1: think Vegas is overvaluing the lines as if they're still healthy.

838
00:44:16,880 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 1: And we have a Cardinals team who is healthy, So

839
00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 1: I do think we're getting the best of the number.

840
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,400
Speaker 1: You know, I'd be cool with taking the Cardinals. I

841
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 1: think I want to, Like, I agree with you. We're

842
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:27,399
Speaker 1: playing with fire. We keep backing the Cardinals. We love

843
00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:31,319
Speaker 1: this team, but I don't know that Vegas is giving

844
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 1: them any credit at all at this point. Just look

845
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:35,600
Speaker 1: at the look at some of the Kyler Murray numbers,

846
00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 1: like fourteen to one to be m v P. He

847
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:41,400
Speaker 1: is like completely on the runway to being m v P.

848
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 1: And this defense is really good. Yeah, and he's a

849
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 1: will breaker, like they'll have third down long third intents

850
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 1: and he breaks defense as will as by scrambling or

851
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 1: just hitting Hopkins on a little in and out. So

852
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 1: I do I love the Cardinals. I mean, I know

853
00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 1: maybe I'm overlooking things here the lines, but like I

854
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 1: had this number at seven, So I do think we're

855
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:04,719
Speaker 1: getting good value on on the Cardinals. And honestly it

856
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 1: might get lower before game time. Yeah, if the Sharps

857
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:09,879
Speaker 1: keep hitting this number, because I think they really think

858
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 1: they have a read here, because they're they're thinking themselves, well,

859
00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:14,759
Speaker 1: this line was three just a couple of weeks ago.

860
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:16,719
Speaker 1: Now it's only the six five and a half to go.

861
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 1: I don't know if there's showing that much of a Justine.

862
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 1: I don't think they're realizing how banged up the lines

863
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:23,319
Speaker 1: defense really is. All right, Meanwhile, we are getting down

864
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:26,359
Speaker 1: to like the quick here. We don't have that many

865
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 1: games left. We've got three games left. And right now,

866
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 1: right now are Slate Giants, Uh what are they? Plus

867
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,520
Speaker 1: five and a half at home against a hobble Niners

868
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 1: team four and a half Washington minus plus seven and

869
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 1: a half um going on the road against an overvalued

870
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 1: Browns team. The Panthers without Christian McCaffrey is a touchdown

871
00:45:55,480 --> 00:46:00,160
Speaker 1: going across the country. To play the Chargers. Those are

872
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:03,360
Speaker 1: three games so far that we like and we're agreeing on. Oh,

873
00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 1: we also like the Pats minus five and a half

874
00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:10,520
Speaker 1: against the Raiders, and what's that the Bears three and

875
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 1: a half? We also like the Bears. I had a

876
00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 1: question mark with the Bears because like, the Bears like

877
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 1: didn't make it into our top four in the same

878
00:46:17,680 --> 00:46:19,560
Speaker 1: way those other did. And we love the Cars at

879
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:21,759
Speaker 1: minus five and a half. So like, those are five

880
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 1: games that we love. So let's see if either the

881
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:27,399
Speaker 1: Bears we can convince ourselves of the Bears coming out

882
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:32,240
Speaker 1: of this or Buck said minus what is that six

883
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 1: on the road against the Broncos getting all the money? Um,

884
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 1: the Packers thirteen and a half? Woa, no, no, uh?

885
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 1: The Saints minus three against the Packers at home, that's

886
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:53,439
Speaker 1: on that's on Sunday night. Or the Ravens minus three

887
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 1: against the Chiefs on Monday night. Let's do ourselves a

888
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:57,839
Speaker 1: favor and just not that that one, Like, let's just

889
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:02,319
Speaker 1: skip that. Yeah, that's that's crazy, that green baby moan.

890
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:04,240
Speaker 1: Because I was four and a half. I got on Sunday,

891
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 1: so I got Green Bay four and a half against

892
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 1: the Saints and I think we're starting to hit a

893
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:14,760
Speaker 1: hit a point here where not that we're overvaluing Aaron Rodgers,

894
00:47:15,520 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 1: but he might have gone against two defenses that are

895
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 1: just hurt, banged up and young for the first two

896
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 1: weeks where he's looked incredible, and he might not have

897
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:28,200
Speaker 1: Davante Adams this upcoming week. So Drew Brees might be

898
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 1: cooked and it might be time for Winston to step in,

899
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:34,480
Speaker 1: and they need to go with a different look because

900
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 1: they can't win games with Drew Brees isn't throwing it

901
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 1: over ten to fifteen yards. He needs to go downfield.

902
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 1: He can't just chip away these different teams. So I'll

903
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 1: stay away from that one. You've lost the value on

904
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:52,200
Speaker 1: Green Bay at this point, and with the Broncos and

905
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:55,400
Speaker 1: Drift School as they're starting quarterback, it's making me nervous.

906
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:56,880
Speaker 1: But I told you early in the year, whatever the

907
00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:59,879
Speaker 1: spread number is with the Broncos in September at home,

908
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:02,399
Speaker 1: I take it. So it's already one to known this year.

909
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:04,319
Speaker 1: Who knows how they covered against the Titans, but they did.

910
00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:08,240
Speaker 1: They covered two and a half, So people can people

911
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:11,320
Speaker 1: come in, they can really lay in and bed on Tampa.

912
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:14,040
Speaker 1: I'm gonna try to just play it smart, played simple,

913
00:48:14,080 --> 00:48:16,800
Speaker 1: and just go with the Broncos plus six. I'm watching

914
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:19,919
Speaker 1: our live odds page right now at Action network dot com.

915
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:23,120
Speaker 1: You can download the Action Network app. The packers just

916
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:30,239
Speaker 1: got hit. Um, that number just moved. So, uh, you're right,

917
00:48:30,400 --> 00:48:34,880
Speaker 1: like people are coming in on Aaron Rodgers fast and furious.

918
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:40,280
Speaker 1: So then Simon again remindered everybody used the phrase that pays.

919
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:44,000
Speaker 1: Simon says, let's bounce back rate and review the podcast

920
00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:47,400
Speaker 1: and we will randomly choose the best one for a

921
00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:50,400
Speaker 1: free Action Network coodie. We will announce last week's winner

922
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:54,399
Speaker 1: at the end of the podcast. Um, before we get

923
00:48:54,440 --> 00:49:00,359
Speaker 1: to that, I feel like I got five games I'm

924
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 1: looking at right now, most of which make me stick

925
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 1: to my stomach. And we're getting ugly this week, but

926
00:49:08,520 --> 00:49:10,759
Speaker 1: I think is gonna win. The public had their week

927
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:15,200
Speaker 1: last week. All these money lines hit. Uh, these guys

928
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:17,359
Speaker 1: that do these ten dollar parlays when they just take

929
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 1: every favorite money line, they're cashing their tickets for whatever

930
00:49:20,080 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 1: it is ten grain this week because every favorite just

931
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 1: one straight up. I think it's a good week to

932
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 1: be with us and being on the Vegas side back

933
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:30,440
Speaker 1: in the Dogs. So I like our positions on a

934
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:34,080
Speaker 1: lot of these games. Alright, So I'm gonna say it.

935
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:36,440
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say it out loud again. We got the

936
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:41,320
Speaker 1: Giants and Danny dimes about plus four and a half

937
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:48,120
Speaker 1: against visiting Hobble Niners. We got the Washington football team

938
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 1: plus I'm sorry. We got the Pats minus five and

939
00:49:51,080 --> 00:49:55,800
Speaker 1: a half so far against the visiting Las Vegas Raiders,

940
00:49:56,320 --> 00:50:00,759
Speaker 1: the Washington football team plus seven, maybe seven and a

941
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:06,280
Speaker 1: half if he gets there. Against the Panthers plus seven,

942
00:50:06,400 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 1: good god, are you kidding me? The Christian McCaffrey less

943
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 1: Panthers plus seven, and then the Cards minus five and

944
00:50:15,560 --> 00:50:17,520
Speaker 1: a half. How much you want to bet we go

945
00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 1: three and two in the games we lose are the

946
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:22,960
Speaker 1: Paths and the Cards. We might end up switch on

947
00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:25,040
Speaker 1: the Panthers. We'll see, because I do love I do

948
00:50:25,160 --> 00:50:27,359
Speaker 1: love our pick with the Bears. We're gonna keep waiting

949
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 1: to see if can get better value on that number,

950
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 1: but I do love the Bears on the spot. Well, listen,

951
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:36,960
Speaker 1: everybody needs to download the free, free, free Actual Network app.

952
00:50:37,000 --> 00:50:40,280
Speaker 1: Then go follow Simon Hunter. Because what happens is Simon

953
00:50:40,320 --> 00:50:44,000
Speaker 1: and I usually text on Saturday and Sunday mornings. Sunday mornings,

954
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:47,879
Speaker 1: we will settle on our final five and I will

955
00:50:47,920 --> 00:50:50,800
Speaker 1: put those picks into the app so everyone can follow.

956
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:54,560
Speaker 1: You can follow Simon Hunter. Simon Hunter started before week

957
00:50:54,640 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 1: one with zero followers. Do you want to know how

958
00:50:58,200 --> 00:51:02,040
Speaker 1: many followers you have in the app right now? Oh? Wow?

959
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:05,879
Speaker 1: In the Action app? Hit me with it. You have

960
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:09,719
Speaker 1: followers in the Action Network app right now, which is

961
00:51:09,719 --> 00:51:11,799
Speaker 1: pretty good. I mean you started with zero and so

962
00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:15,240
Speaker 1: that's kind of amazing. Yeah, I'm really excited to disappoint

963
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 1: all those people. That's fun, dude. It took you two

964
00:51:19,680 --> 00:51:26,040
Speaker 1: weeks to turn so fucking bitter man man. All right,

965
00:51:26,600 --> 00:51:28,640
Speaker 1: all right, here we go, Here we go. It's time

966
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:36,480
Speaker 1: for the phrase that pays as a reminder. As a reminder,

967
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:39,480
Speaker 1: last week, we asked fans to rate and review the podcast.

968
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:42,920
Speaker 1: Those who did and used the winning phrase Simon says,

969
00:51:43,040 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 1: Let's go and feed it in their review were eligible

970
00:51:45,520 --> 00:51:49,040
Speaker 1: to win a free Action Network hoodie. We have loads

971
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:52,560
Speaker 1: and loads of reviews, almost as many as Simon has

972
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:55,200
Speaker 1: followers in the Action Network app, So thank you for that.

973
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 1: In a second, we will reveal the winner. But remember

974
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:01,000
Speaker 1: we're doing another phrase to pay is I know I

975
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:03,400
Speaker 1: just said it, but we're doing it again. Go great review,

976
00:52:03,520 --> 00:52:06,320
Speaker 1: use the phrase. Simon says, let's bounce back, and we

977
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:08,200
Speaker 1: will randomly choose the winner to get a free action

978
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:12,600
Speaker 1: that we're cootie the winner. The winner for last week's

979
00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:17,719
Speaker 1: phrase that pays is token Battle. Simon says, let's go

980
00:52:17,840 --> 00:52:21,200
Speaker 1: five and oh. Simon says, Chad peaked at fourteen and

981
00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 1: is now a nerd dad. Not funny. You gotta put

982
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:29,400
Speaker 1: the shirts me. You gotta get those shirts made that

983
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:33,719
Speaker 1: if we can get into the merch business off of

984
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:36,760
Speaker 1: me being a nerd dad and I can potentially profit

985
00:52:36,800 --> 00:52:38,839
Speaker 1: from that, that would be the most damn revelve thing ever,

986
00:52:39,040 --> 00:52:43,640
Speaker 1: like finding a way to profit off of Internet hate.

987
00:52:43,920 --> 00:52:47,719
Speaker 1: But we love Mr Token Battle. Token Battle. You've got

988
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:52,880
Speaker 1: to email Matt Mitchell Matt dot Mitchell at Action network

989
00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:56,360
Speaker 1: dot com to receive your prize because you did not

990
00:52:56,480 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 1: leave your contact info. So everyone else who wants to

991
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:01,040
Speaker 1: email Matt Mitchell if they hit the podcast, and you

992
00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:03,480
Speaker 1: can do that too, if you love the podcast, if

993
00:53:03,480 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 1: you just love Matt Mitchell for being available. All of

994
00:53:06,200 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 1: that a reminder download the Action Network gap to get

995
00:53:09,680 --> 00:53:12,440
Speaker 1: the picks in real time as we make them on

996
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:16,080
Speaker 1: Sunday mornings. But until we get to that, Until we

997
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:19,560
Speaker 1: get to that, a reminder, our picks Giants plus four

998
00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:22,200
Speaker 1: and a half against the Niners, Pats minus five and

999
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:24,880
Speaker 1: a half with the Raiders visiting Washington, seven and a

1000
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:28,520
Speaker 1: half on the road against the Brownies Panthers plus seven

1001
00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:33,640
Speaker 1: maybe going against the Chargers cards minus five and a half.

1002
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:36,880
Speaker 1: They're playing the lines until next time. This has been

1003
00:53:36,880 --> 00:53:40,320
Speaker 1: the favorites from the Action Network. Download Apple Podcasts, Spotify,

1004
00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Love you