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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside

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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring

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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast

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Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, it is

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Speaker 1: Prime Day today and tomorrow for Amazon. Doesn't mean that

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Speaker 1: much for me, but apparently I am one of the outliers.

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Speaker 1: US shoppers will spend twelve billion dollars online in two days. Uh,

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Speaker 1: let's get the skinny on that with Punam Goyle, senior

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Speaker 1: US retail analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. So, Punam, give us

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Speaker 1: a sense for Prime Day. It's we're such a weird

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Speaker 1: in the past fifteen months have been such a weird

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Speaker 1: time for all of us. Everybody's behavior has been disrupted.

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Speaker 1: Give us a sense of how important Prime Day is

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Speaker 1: to an Amazon, you know, maybe versus last year. Sure,

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Speaker 1: thanks Paul. So Prime Days basically very important for Amazon.

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Speaker 1: It's expected in our view, to bring in about twelve

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Speaker 1: billion dollars and grows merchandise sales. That's built from third

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Speaker 1: party and first party. UM. Now what's interesting here and

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Speaker 1: why it's important is because Amazon Prime Day is when

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Speaker 1: Amazon gets to sell more of its own inventory. So

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Speaker 1: if you think about the Amazon business, more than half

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Speaker 1: of the business is from third party, but on Amazon

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Speaker 1: Prime Day, two thirds of the business is Amazon's owned business.

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Speaker 1: So that's why it's so important. It's great for them

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Speaker 1: because it's UM they get to promote some of their

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Speaker 1: own products. The other thing is they get to bring

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Speaker 1: on more Prime members. So Prime members today we have

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Speaker 1: over two hundred million Prime members, with the US having

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Speaker 1: about two thirds of the U S population households each

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Speaker 1: having a Prime member in there, so opportunity to grow.

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Speaker 1: That is where Prime Day helps. Where deals are promoted

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Speaker 1: and consumers who are not Prime members can join Prime,

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Speaker 1: which then creates a more stickier customer for them in

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Speaker 1: the longer term. And I wonder how much this has

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Speaker 1: grown with Amazon because revenue growth at Amazon has been

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Speaker 1: off the hook. We're talking about a company that made

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Speaker 1: less than two hundred way less than two hundred billion

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Speaker 1: in revenue in and they're gonna make about five hundred

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Speaker 1: billion in revenue this year. So have we seen Prime

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Speaker 1: Day revenue grow at the same pace. We've actually seen

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Speaker 1: it grow much faster than that. So using the same

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Speaker 1: time frame that you just use, prime day sales where

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Speaker 1: two point four billion dollars and we're expecting twelve billion

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Speaker 1: this year, so that's a sixfold increase almost. But I'm

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Speaker 1: talking to us about the other side of the equation,

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Speaker 1: the supply side, getting stuff to people's doors. We keep

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Speaker 1: hearing lots of stories about supply chain disruptions, and boy,

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Speaker 1: when I think about a company that really realizes upon

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Speaker 1: a global supply chain, it's Amazon dot Com. What are

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Speaker 1: they telling you about being able to get stuff to

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Speaker 1: people's doors. You know, it hasn't been called out as

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Speaker 1: a hiccup yet in order we see it. But what

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Speaker 1: I have personally seen and I've heard from people is that,

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Speaker 1: you know, the one day the two day delivery that

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Speaker 1: you're used to expecting, maybe it doesn't come in one

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Speaker 1: day anymore anymore. Some items maybe they take two or

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Speaker 1: three days, but they're still getting them out there. You know,

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Speaker 1: if if anyone can do it, we think it's Amazon.

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Speaker 1: They're pretty diversified how they ship. They use carriers, but

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Speaker 1: they also have their own trucks and performent networks to

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Speaker 1: help them. So we think Amazon can still you know,

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Speaker 1: go past those bottlenecks. We haven't seen, um, those constraints

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Speaker 1: impact them like we have some other companies in retail.

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Speaker 1: By the way, I'm not not totally related to this story,

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Speaker 1: but I always wonder how to look at other no no,

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Speaker 1: no cars man. Uh the weight they're is getting really

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Speaker 1: long for cars and motorcycles. But you know, a lot

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Speaker 1: of times I'll choose Amazon instead of many other online

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Speaker 1: vendors because I want my stuff now. Um, and I'm

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Speaker 1: probably just a horrible person. But I guess other people

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Speaker 1: I feel the same way. Are our other vendors. Are

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Speaker 1: other online sites hurrying up to try and match that? Yeah? Absolutely.

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Speaker 1: So you know, Walmart and Target, I say, are are

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Speaker 1: both playing in the space more aggressively than they ever

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Speaker 1: have in the past. They now have programs where you

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Speaker 1: can get same day delivery, whether it's through Walmart Plus

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Speaker 1: or whether it's to ship through ship it at Target,

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Speaker 1: so you can get things to your door the same

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Speaker 1: day today in retail across many other larger retailers. But

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Speaker 1: once again, the inventory there may be a little more limited,

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Speaker 1: um than it is on Amazon. Because they don't necessarily

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Speaker 1: have everything that they have available online for seing day

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Speaker 1: delivery or even next day. All Right, it's a great

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Speaker 1: topic because more and more of us well, it touches

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Speaker 1: so many um and a lot more obviously than it

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Speaker 1: did in two thou two thousand nine, um, and it

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Speaker 1: looks like it's pretty sticky. Punham is a great person

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Speaker 1: to talk to. She's our senior US retail analyst for

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence, so she knows all there is to know

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Speaker 1: about this fascinating and growing story um well and hopefully

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Speaker 1: continues to grow because that means the economy does as well.

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Speaker 1: So that's the story on Prime Day. Get acquainted with it.

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Speaker 1: It's here to stay, Paul and spreading really around the world.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg right now. Let's go to Omar agular

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Speaker 1: ceio of Passive Equity Multi Asset Strategies for Charles Schwab

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Speaker 1: Investment Management. He joins us. Omar, thanks so much for

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Speaker 1: joining us. You know, when I think about Charles Schwab,

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Speaker 1: I just think of, you know, just the army of

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Speaker 1: individual investors out there, the retail investors, uh that trade

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Speaker 1: on your platform. What are you hearing most from the average.

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Speaker 1: If you have a Charles Schwab investment management client right now, Hily,

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Speaker 1: good morning. Um. You know, in general, you know what

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Speaker 1: we see um industry wide on in general for retail

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Speaker 1: investors is you know there you know, they're concerned about inflation.

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Speaker 1: Inflation seems to be what is top of mind as

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Speaker 1: continued concerns about the all the work that has been

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Speaker 1: done with prices going up, significant amount of imbalances between

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Speaker 1: demand and supply, and in general, you know what would

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Speaker 1: that do to interest rates? I think when we see

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Speaker 1: the the data and the volatility around the data, you know,

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Speaker 1: a lot of what comes to investor's head is, well,

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Speaker 1: this is going to affect earnings for companies. Is there's

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Speaker 1: going to be something that affects prices and in general?

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Speaker 1: How is that going to reflect in the volatility of

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Speaker 1: my portfolios? Well you can just tell them, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: if we start to see real inflation and the Fed

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Speaker 1: turns hawkish and the dots rise, they can expect to

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Speaker 1: see the ten year yield fall. Well that seems to

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Speaker 1: be what that's crazy, right, That's just insane. That seems

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Speaker 1: to be exactly how the market, you know, it seems

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Speaker 1: to be reacting to what what I would probably they

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Speaker 1: say was something that the Federal Reserve tried to put

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Speaker 1: together last week, and in an effort to try to

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Speaker 1: reduce the fears of inflation, they actually created more uncertainty

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Speaker 1: for investors. I think a big significant part of the tone,

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Speaker 1: the hockey shtone that we all heard from jeron Power

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Speaker 1: last week, you know, translated into more volatility around the

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Speaker 1: timing of the tapering program. And I think the market

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Speaker 1: seemed to be now more comfortable thinking that the tapering

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Speaker 1: will happen earlier than later, thinking that the Fed will

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Speaker 1: be aggressive in reacting to any signs of inflation. So

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Speaker 1: in a way that that inflation discussion created a little

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Speaker 1: more volatility in what we may see down the road.

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Speaker 1: All right, So I guess one of the questions is,

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Speaker 1: if we are going to be in a rising interest

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Speaker 1: rate environment over the next several years, is economic growth

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Speaker 1: our corporate earnings are they strong enough to offset that?

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Speaker 1: How do you feel about that? Well, economic growth and

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Speaker 1: earnings growth are city to be the for for us,

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Speaker 1: the catalyst of what may upset a little bit of

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Speaker 1: that volatility and inflation components if you actually think about,

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Speaker 1: you know, the numbers that we expect. Even in the

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Speaker 1: second quarter, we're gonna, you know, get to the highest

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Speaker 1: possible numbers we have seen in a while. And granted

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Speaker 1: that there is a base case effect, we're expecting over

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Speaker 1: sixty percent year of a year EPs growth in the

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Speaker 1: second quarter, which is going to be a record. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, when you put that together with a potential

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Speaker 1: of you know, over seven percent of GDP growth in

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Speaker 1: one you know, we're talking about something that I don't

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Speaker 1: think we have seen in a long long time. Um.

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Speaker 1: The big question in our minds is, you know, at

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Speaker 1: what point we go through that significant moving to the

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Speaker 1: mid cycle and the deceleration of economic growth and earnings

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Speaker 1: growth is something that the market feels comfortable. So whether

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Speaker 1: it's the third quarter of this year or whether it's

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Speaker 1: you know, at the end of this year when we're

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Speaker 1: starting to see that deceleration and how fast that deceleration is.

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Speaker 1: This that steepness of deceleration is what I think is

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Speaker 1: going to be some for us to continue to watch.

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Speaker 1: If you had to put your money in one basket

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Speaker 1: or another, would it be value or growth? Well, I

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Speaker 1: think we we continue to tell investors that we have

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Speaker 1: to be barbelled, we we this. You know, we are

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Speaker 1: in unprecedented charts, you know, in the business cycle and

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Speaker 1: the economic cycles. Again, you know, we have never been

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Speaker 1: you know, in this situation in any you know, these

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Speaker 1: cycles before. Because in a way, this is not even

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Speaker 1: a mid cycle in the traditional sense, because we are reopening.

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Speaker 1: We're still in that process of reopening. The global economy

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Speaker 1: is not yet fully open, and as such, it is

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Speaker 1: very hard to put a component of saying, well, this

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Speaker 1: is now the cyclical trade is done, and therefore we're

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Speaker 1: going to go to the mid cycle, you know, high

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Speaker 1: quality growth. So our our approach right now until we

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Speaker 1: get a little more clarity on the data is, you know,

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Speaker 1: the cyclical trade still has some room, but you've got

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Speaker 1: to be prepared for the next leg, which is going

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Speaker 1: into the high quality growth. So, you know, again, a

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Speaker 1: long way to tell you the Barbell strategies to be

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Speaker 1: the most prudent at the moment. All right, thanks so

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Speaker 1: much for joining us. Omar always great to get your inside.

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Speaker 1: Omar Aguilar c I, O of Passive Equity and multi

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Speaker 1: Asset Strategies at Charles Schwab Investment Managers. You know, when

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Speaker 1: we started Bloomberg intelligence, Bloomberg's in house research investment research business.

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Speaker 1: We said, we're going to really focus on the data,

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Speaker 1: because that's what Bloomberg does. It has the world class

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Speaker 1: best data, and we'll let the data do the talking.

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Speaker 1: In our analysts make lots of great charts and graphs

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Speaker 1: from that data and they tell you what's important. And

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Speaker 1: nobody does that better than Mike McGlone. He's got the

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Speaker 1: best charts, tells fantastic stories that really make you understand

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Speaker 1: what's going on in his business. Uh. And Mike joins

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Speaker 1: us here because we need to talk about bitcoin. And

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at some charts here and it's not a

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Speaker 1: good chart for XPT. It's off another nine percent today, Mike,

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Speaker 1: So do we start looking at support levels for this

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Speaker 1: type of thing like you do with all the other

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Speaker 1: commodities you follow? Is that important when you look at

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Speaker 1: something like bitcoin. Bitcoin is very technical because it's still

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Speaker 1: a lot of people don't understand it, and there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of traders, and a lot of them are young

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Speaker 1: and inexperience, and there's a lot of bots trading them.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's so automated. But I look at thirty thousand,

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Speaker 1: it's pretty good support. It ended last year around twenty

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Speaker 1: nine thousand. Now we might get a little dip below there,

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Speaker 1: just to kind of tweak out the last of the

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Speaker 1: speculative accesses. But what I see here is lower prices

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Speaker 1: are attracting more the longer term bine hole types. And

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Speaker 1: it's last week it peaked around forty thousand, So thirty

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Speaker 1: to forty thousand. I still thinking should get to the

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand this year. The key thing I'm worried about

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Speaker 1: is what happened last year. Bonnil is collapsing, the stock

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Speaker 1: market declining. It's the macro, and if the stock market

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Speaker 1: goes down and bonnels go down, bitcoin is part of

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Speaker 1: that macro. But in the big picture, what the Fed said,

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, kind of tweaking things a little bit.

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Speaker 1: The the the Fed squawk of that, to me, is

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Speaker 1: actually good and long term for bitcoin like it is

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Speaker 1: for gold. So you think bitcoin is more of an

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Speaker 1: inflation hedge, Well a, Matt, Well, Well, I mean here's

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Speaker 1: the thing, because if the FED starts to raise rates,

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Speaker 1: Bitcoin and gold don't pay any dividends or have any

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Speaker 1: kind of return like that unless you use some funky

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Speaker 1: yield farming strategies so why well, ultimately it will be

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Speaker 1: inflation hedge. But look at gold in the last ten years,

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Speaker 1: in the last twenty years, it hasn't been an inflation.

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Speaker 1: Has has been a deflation. Has been working better with

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Speaker 1: yields collapsing, and gold is kicking him right now finally

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Speaker 1: because yields the thirty year drop alow and to one

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Speaker 1: point nine four. Last night I got up and I

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Speaker 1: looked at like, WHOA. So to me, what's happening is

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Speaker 1: it's not inflation. Think of what it's going to take

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Speaker 1: for the Fed. The raised rates. That's a dream right now,

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Speaker 1: and it's started that. They're trying to warn us a

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Speaker 1: litit because they remember what happened last time with the

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Speaker 1: taper tantrum. It's just classic Fed. They have to do that.

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Speaker 1: But they're still dreaming of raising rates. And then the

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Speaker 1: key thing is if the stock market doesn't go up,

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Speaker 1: deflation is the main problem. You see that most commodities,

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Speaker 1: most of them peak crude oil is still a little

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Speaker 1: bit higher here. Copper peaked at ten thousand dollars, But

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Speaker 1: I kick in. Bitcoin is is replacing gold in portfolios

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Speaker 1: in many cases, but it's not inflation yet. At some

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Speaker 1: point we'll get there. I didn't know when that's what

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Speaker 1: that's gonna take. But to me, until the stock market,

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Speaker 1: until we get that past that pain, that that period

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Speaker 1: when he had a little bit of an ebbing tide

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Speaker 1: and you see, here's who's wearing clothes kind of kicked

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Speaker 1: in maybe a little bit last week. Is I fully

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Speaker 1: expect golden bitcoin being the two key asses wearing clothes

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Speaker 1: because there's still that I feel that organic and see

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Speaker 1: the organic demand below the market. All right, so we

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Speaker 1: did see. I'm wondering, like for bitcoin, for those that

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Speaker 1: don't fully understand it as a security, what is it

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Speaker 1: most highly correlated with? Do you think? So what should

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Speaker 1: people be looking at to say, gf bon yields go up?

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Speaker 1: You know, bitcoins? I mean, how should I think about? So?

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Speaker 1: How did you know what I'm researching right now on

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Speaker 1: the bloom Bird portfolio? Potum, I'm I'm I'm working on

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Speaker 1: what's called port that's our portfolio function that putting bitcoin

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Speaker 1: with the bond market and just taking a US Treasury

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Speaker 1: market portfolio and using bitcoin of ten percent and a

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Speaker 1: lot of people here are doing that. Ray Dally as

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Speaker 1: if you mentioned that he'd rather old bitcoin than bonds,

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Speaker 1: it has zero correlation to most assets. Is a unique

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Speaker 1: thing about it. Now when markets plunge like we did

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Speaker 1: last year, everything has a high correlation to the stock mark,

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Speaker 1: and that kicked in. You saw that with crude oil,

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Speaker 1: saw that with bitcoin. But no, now it's coming back,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's what people are doing looking forward. Okay,

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Speaker 1: in a gold portfolio, now I have to have a

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Speaker 1: little bitcoin because it's clearly replacing gold unless it fails.

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Speaker 1: But if that trend continues, But in a in a

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Speaker 1: in a in a bond portfolio, it's really a nice compliment.

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Speaker 1: Say five to ten going forward, zero rates. If we

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Speaker 1: do get inflation at some point, it should kick in.

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Speaker 1: But if you look past performance, very low low correlation,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't really add to volatively in the in the

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Speaker 1: bond portfolio, but it gives you those much better returns.

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Speaker 1: Now that's past performance looking forward. If it just keeps

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Speaker 1: doing what it has been, which I'm too, I'm not

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Speaker 1: smart at the fair to winning, it might change. It

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Speaker 1: should be a good compliment. And for me that's what's happening.

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Speaker 1: Every day that goes by that it doesn't fail, it

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Speaker 1: becomes more legitimate. Yeah, is there a material risk that

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Speaker 1: bitcoin fails. Yeah, well it lessens every day. It's some

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Speaker 1: kind of you have to have I have to reconsider

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Speaker 1: that because it's new technology something some kind of technological glitch,

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Speaker 1: some kind of you know, the issue with energy where

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Speaker 1: point out how strong it is. So every time you

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Speaker 1: tryd of throw something at it, you kind of get

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Speaker 1: used to them, like, okay, knocks the price down. Then

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Speaker 1: you look around like, actually, that's a positive thing for bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: So it's more likely to be beaten than fail, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean that much more likely option is that, uh,

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Speaker 1: the market chooses something else like either well that's the thing,

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Speaker 1: and that's kind of like to say, okay, in a

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Speaker 1: gold portfolio, you have to have bitcoin, but kind of now,

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Speaker 1: don't have to have a little bit of THEORYM in that,

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Speaker 1: because the THEORYM represents a whole building block of all

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Speaker 1: defy and and decentralized financial and it's all risen. By

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Speaker 1: the way, I'm a little confused. Well it's not that

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Speaker 1: I'm confused, but there there are stories in China that

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Speaker 1: are bad for bitcoin. They're shutting down miners apparently, and

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Speaker 1: they're banning people from accepting it and using it, so

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Speaker 1: it seems like China the government is against bitcoin. On

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Speaker 1: the other hand, people in China own more bitcoin than

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Speaker 1: people in most other countries, and all of these new

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Speaker 1: unicorn businesses are popping up. I don't know if you

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Speaker 1: read about a group of Morgan Stanley traders that started

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Speaker 1: a company called Amber Group, which trades not only trades bitcoin,

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Speaker 1: but authors a bunch of other fintech solutions with crypto.

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Speaker 1: They have now a billion dollar valuation. Um there's a

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Speaker 1: Chinese crypto lender, Babel Finance. They've raised forty million from

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Speaker 1: investors like Sequoia and tiger Um. The list goes on

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Speaker 1: and on of these new startups in Hong Kong and

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Speaker 1: on the mainland. Does China love bitcoin? Is it the

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Speaker 1: savior bitcoin? Or do they hate bitcoin? Are they terrified

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Speaker 1: of matt What you described as very very short term

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Speaker 1: bullish and long term very I'm sorry, short term barrass

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Speaker 1: very long term bullis China pushing back and being agnostic

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Speaker 1: towards the bitcoin makes a lot of sense. Authoritarian society,

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Speaker 1: no free flow cap, do not allow their citizens to

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Speaker 1: have free flow capital and any other currencies outside the

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Speaker 1: currents of the country, and that makes a lot of sense.

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Speaker 1: It's actually showing how how the strength of how good

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Speaker 1: bitcoin is for countries like US and the rest Western world.

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Speaker 1: We have free coal, free flow capital, and discourse where

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Speaker 1: you can exchange different currencies. So it's a savior for

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Speaker 1: a lot of Chinese citizens. So they're trying to hide

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Speaker 1: it from the government, but it's also extolling the problem

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Speaker 1: Chinese really going backwards the last few years and many

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Speaker 1: people with President Zy this whole concept of trying to

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Speaker 1: you know, eliminate corruption. You know what that means, he's

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Speaker 1: just bringing people who agree with him. So it's to me,

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Speaker 1: what's happening to China is very bullish book for bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: In the short term, it's miners have to leave, they

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Speaker 1: have to sell because they're getting a little discombobulated. But

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Speaker 1: they're moving more to more renewable sources, a lot of

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Speaker 1: it North America. Gasler in Canada is one of the

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Speaker 1: top attractions right now, and it's all going renewable anyhow

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Speaker 1: because of the costs. So I look at what happened

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Speaker 1: in China is just that's that's the new Cold War

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Speaker 1: and US has already winning organic. All right, Mike, thanks

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Speaker 1: so much, always great check in with you on Bitcoin,

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Speaker 1: Mike mcgloan there Bloomberg Commodities. We've been talking about inflation

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Speaker 1: a lot recently in the market is trying to get

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Speaker 1: a handle on is it good inflation or perhaps something

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Speaker 1: more longer term and if so, how problematic is that

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Speaker 1: for the market. Let's check in with Brian wash He's

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Speaker 1: a financial advisor at Walsh and Nicholson Financial Group. Brian,

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Speaker 1: if I'm really concerned about evaluation, I'm sorry, inflation. Should

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Speaker 1: I just go out and buy gold as a hedge

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Speaker 1: boarding and thanks for having me? And my answer to

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Speaker 1: that is no. UM. When you actually look at gold

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Speaker 1: when it was supposed to work in inflationary environment UM

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Speaker 1: in more recent times, and it hasn't UM. When you

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Speaker 1: look at UM, the the correlation with gold to the

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Speaker 1: equity market that has increased over time. So gold is

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Speaker 1: a great buffer when you have a market sell off

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Speaker 1: UM like like we have back in March of last year.

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Speaker 1: But we're talking about inflation and future inflation. It has

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Speaker 1: not provided a great hedging strategy and in fact UM

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Speaker 1: we at our firm, we are more inclined to look

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Speaker 1: towards commodities such as sugar and wet UM to hedge

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Speaker 1: inflation as it has proved this year to work much

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Speaker 1: better than gold, so you think commodity is also better

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Speaker 1: than And by the way, speaking of commodities, did you

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Speaker 1: look at oils? Yeah? Thanks for you know, we've been

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Speaker 1: looking at this morning, but it just spiked up here.

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Speaker 1: We've got w t I crude oil two dollars an ounce.

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Speaker 1: I'm a barrel that's up a dollar twenty barrel. It's

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Speaker 1: up almost one percent, So big move up there. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Brent up one and a half percent to seventy fifty barrel,

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Speaker 1: so big moves up in commodities. What about equities? UM?

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Speaker 1: I wonder Brian, can can you make an argument for

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Speaker 1: equities as good as a good inflation edge? Do you

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Speaker 1: have to look at certain industry groups? Yeah? So, I

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Speaker 1: mean right now, there's really nowhere else to go. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you have to be in the equity market. You have

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Speaker 1: a supportive you have support of UM physical and monetary policy,

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Speaker 1: UM fixed income is it gonna give you really anything?

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Speaker 1: Right now? So there really is no place else to

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Speaker 1: go other than the equity markets. But if you're looking

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Speaker 1: to hedge inflation UM very similar to hedging interest rates.

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Speaker 1: You know you need to look at quality companies who

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Speaker 1: have who have a history of increasing their dividends. UM.

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Speaker 1: If you have that and you have higher commodity prices,

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Speaker 1: higher inflation, higher interest rates, those types of companies will

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Speaker 1: fare a lot better. UM. And when you have these

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Speaker 1: high inflationary environments, these high interest rate environments, you need

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Speaker 1: to have cash on hand. UM. Now is not the time,

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Speaker 1: in our opinion, to be barreling into growth stocks. UM.

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Speaker 1: We think you need to have quality on the balance sheet, UM,

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Speaker 1: quality in your portfolio, and and position a wordingly for

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Speaker 1: for higher interest rates and higher inflation. And you know,

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Speaker 1: short term, obviously we're seeing what the fintas clung a

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Speaker 1: transitory inflation every move. Um. We believe that it's not transitory.

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Speaker 1: We think we're gonna see it continue um through into

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Speaker 1: three and I think that's when you're gonna start seeing

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00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,919
Speaker 1: it effect Um the equity markets in a in a bigger,

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Speaker 1: bigger way. Bryan, are you You've you've been in this

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Speaker 1: game a while here, You've got some experience. When you

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Speaker 1: see valuations where they are today, when you see you know,

408
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 1: meme stock trading, you know kind of the Reddit traders,

409
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Speaker 1: when you see SPACs exploding in the end of last

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Speaker 1: year beginning of this year. Does that suggest to you

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Speaker 1: that there's a lot of froth in this market? I

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Speaker 1: better be a little bit careful. Absolutely, I mean, UM,

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Speaker 1: there's no doubt about it. I have people calling me

414
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 1: who have never had questions before about investments calling me

415
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 1: asking them about a m C and game stop in bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: So UM, anytime, you know, for me, I see some people, UM,

417
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 1: you know, reaching out regarding certain things, Um, you have

418
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Speaker 1: to start to wonder. And it's across the board. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there's nothing in this marketplace right now, at least on

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Speaker 1: the US side, that is trading uh in any capacity. Um,

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Speaker 1: that's justified everything to me, you know, is is just

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Speaker 1: a lot of pent up demand, pent up cash that

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Speaker 1: people want to spend. UM. And you know they're they're

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Speaker 1: riding the federal uh FED policy wave right now. And UM,

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Speaker 1: I I really, I truly believe um that you know,

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Speaker 1: the rest of this year will probably be pretty decent

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Speaker 1: frequity markets. But once two comes around, UM, I think

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00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 1: you're gonna see that valuation bubble um start to start

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00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 1: to dissipate a little bit. But nothing just dissipate, right,

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Speaker 1: not pop I mean, you co founded walshon Nicholson, so

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00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:59,159
Speaker 1: you've been through a real bubble. We see big text

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Speaker 1: docs with huge valuations. You don't think this is gonna

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00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 1: be you know, Like again, well, I think it depends

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00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 1: on where you're looking. I mean I think, um, you know,

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00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 1: some companies, um, you know, it's a fair better. I

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00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 1: mean I think you know, when you look at Amazon, Google's,

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00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 1: Microsoft's of the world, Um you know. No, I don't

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00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 1: think you're gonna see a pop there. I mean, those

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00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 1: are companies that have overtaken our world and overtaken our

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Speaker 1: our you know, the public um interest in general. But

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00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 1: some of these smaller UM tech companies with these crazy valuations,

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00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 1: UM yeah, I do think you're gonna see um, you know,

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00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 1: more of a pop there. So I think on the

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00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:40,959
Speaker 1: on the large end, large cap end of the tech market,

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00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 1: it's more of a distipate distipating um reset versus the

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00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,640
Speaker 1: small and mid cap end. Is is definitely gonna see

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00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 1: some the broad of the down the downtre and there.

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Speaker 1: All right, Brian, very cool to get your take. Thanks

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Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Brian Walsh, financial advisor at

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00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 1: Walsh and Nicholson talking to us about markets. Thanks for

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00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and

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00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:09,680
Speaker 1: listen to interviews of Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform

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00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt

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00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 1: Miller three and on Fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at

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00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us

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00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio