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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: It's good without further ado.

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Speaker 3: That's what the game's all about.

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Speaker 4: All of a sudden, you feel like you can't miss.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna up there.

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Speaker 1: You couldn't make that if you try that again, absolutely not.

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Speaker 5: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, NBA Edition. I'm your host,

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Speaker 5: Matt Moore, senior NBA writer for the Action Network, joined

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Speaker 5: today by Raheem Palmer. Brandon Anderson has this episode off.

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Speaker 5: He'll be back with us on Friday as we preview.

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Speaker 1: Bucks Nets Armageddon.

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Speaker 5: And probably what I I'll tell you right now, Rahim

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Speaker 5: is just like a i'll sneak preview. I think that's

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Speaker 5: the NBA Finals. I think Bucks Nets is the NBA Finals.

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Speaker 5: I'll just go ahead and drop that little note right there.

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Speaker 1: I'm not mad at that. I'm not mad at that

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Speaker 1: at all.

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Speaker 5: All Right, So on today's episode, I'm talking to Justin

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Speaker 5: Fan later about the Laker situation about how the salvage

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Speaker 5: my extreme liability on the Lakers' title futures.

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Speaker 6: But for now, Rahim and I are going to talk

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Speaker 6: about to the other series.

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Speaker 5: So last night, Damian Liller goes off for fifty five

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Speaker 5: points on twenty four shots and somehow doesn't win as

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Speaker 5: the Denver Nuggets get the win in double overtime in

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Speaker 5: a game honestly where Denver out played them for the

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Speaker 5: entire duration of that game, and it literally was just

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Speaker 5: Dame was just firing up three pointers and keeping them

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Speaker 5: in it because he's the second greatest shooter in the

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Speaker 5: NBA behind Steph. Look, I'm gonna be on the Blazers

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Speaker 5: in Game six. I can't see Denver finishing them off

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Speaker 5: in Portland. I think Portland's going to do the exactly

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Speaker 5: way they did in Game four, which is, Okay, we

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Speaker 5: can't lose this one. They come out with intensity, they

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Speaker 5: fire back. They're winning the use of Nurkic minutes, and

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Speaker 5: for me, that's like a big deal. If you're winning

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Speaker 5: the Nurkic minutes, that means you're winning the Nurkic minutes

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Speaker 5: versus Jokic. And if the Nuggets are loose using the

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Speaker 5: Kola Jokish minutes, they cannot win this series. So I

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Speaker 5: have the Blazers in a lot a lot of ways

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Speaker 5: I had them to win the series.

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Speaker 6: I had them in several round robins to win the series.

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Speaker 5: I'm probably gonna have to hedge a little bit depending

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Speaker 5: on how I feel going into Game six, but I

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Speaker 5: can't see Denver finishing them off. Denver has never won

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Speaker 5: a series in less than seven games. They've only lost

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Speaker 5: a series in less than seven games once to the Lakers.

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Speaker 5: Where are you at with this series and how does

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Speaker 5: an impact above your betting game by game and then

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Speaker 5: going forward in the playoffs?

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Speaker 1: For me, I came into this series thinking that the

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Speaker 1: Blazers had such a huge discrepancy in the guard play

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Speaker 1: that they would win this series. But as I watched it,

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Speaker 1: to me, Yokish look like the best player in this series.

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Speaker 1: And I think the difference between these two teams is

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Speaker 1: that the Nuggets can score inside and they get easier shots,

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Speaker 1: whereas just the Blazers, they're highly dependent on their three

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Speaker 1: point shooting. And if this is gonna be a long series,

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Speaker 1: as the series goes on, guys are gonna be able

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Speaker 1: to make shots. I mean when you look at last

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Speaker 1: like last night was perfect example, the Blazers were twenty

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Speaker 1: one of forty eight from three. He shot forty forty

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Speaker 1: three percent, but Dame was twelve of seventeen and the

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Speaker 1: rest of the team was notin a thirty one just

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Speaker 1: twenty nine percent. So if you're gonna have Mello and CJ.

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Speaker 1: McCollum and Robert Covington and you know, Norman Powell shooting

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Speaker 1: all these threes, you're gonna have a higher variance than

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Speaker 1: the Nuggets who were able to get shots at the

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Speaker 1: rim with Jokic. And obviously, I mean Austin Rivers has

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Speaker 1: come up big in this series. Like if he's gonna

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Speaker 1: be able to make shoot four from eight from three,

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Speaker 1: the Blazers are in trouble. So it's just I like

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Speaker 1: the Nuggets in the series, initially played the Blazers, but

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Speaker 1: before yesterday I played some Nuggets just to kind of

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Speaker 1: get out of it. And if the Nuggets win, I

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Speaker 1: make a profit. But I don't trust the Blazers. I

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Speaker 1: think this is this is kind of revenge for you know,

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Speaker 1: the previous playoff series. And I know that's all narrative stuff,

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Speaker 1: but I think Mike Malone is the better coach. He's

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Speaker 1: proven it throughout this series that you know he could

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Speaker 1: just find guys to make things happen. And I really

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Speaker 1: don't trust this Blazers team to continue. They're hot shooting

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Speaker 1: in a long series, So give me the I'm taking

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Speaker 1: the Nuggets, So.

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Speaker 6: Do you like them in game six?

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Speaker 5: Like the Blazers are minus five right now, they're they're

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Speaker 5: five point favorites right now in game six in Portland

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Speaker 5: totals two twenty seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't. I don't see how you can take

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Speaker 1: the Nuggets in this game to go right with the

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Speaker 1: assumption that you know the Blazers are probably gonna win

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Speaker 1: this game. But I just, I mean, I have an

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Speaker 1: odd a position on the Nuggets to win the series

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Speaker 1: that I took yesterday, right, and I feel really good

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Speaker 1: about it. So it's just I do think that probably

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Speaker 1: the smart players to play the Blazers, but I'm just

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Speaker 1: not high on them.

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Speaker 5: So you had the year you said you like Portland

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Speaker 5: to go in the series. Did you take a position

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Speaker 5: on Portland before the series?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? I took that, took the place before the series.

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Speaker 5: So you basically has yourself into a profit regardless of outcome.

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Speaker 1: No, I basically I bought out of it and already

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Speaker 1: like changed that. Yeah. Like that's how That's how good

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Speaker 1: I feel about the Nuggets and their chances.

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Speaker 5: I just so let me, let me put let me

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Speaker 5: put the fear of God in you all right, So

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Speaker 5: if we agree that we think Portland's gonna win this

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Speaker 5: next game, and I do the and the market agrees.

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Speaker 5: This opened at four, which was the line for games

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Speaker 5: three and four, and it's already up to five. So

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Speaker 5: the market is reacting pretty positively towards Portland already. We'll

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Speaker 5: see what happens or maybe you know, if a big

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Speaker 5: bet comes in on Denver, this may move back to

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Speaker 5: four and a half or four before tip off. So

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Speaker 5: you want to make sure that you download the Action

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Speaker 5: Network apps you can track and try and find the

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Speaker 5: best number. Definitely, don't get it. If you see a five,

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Speaker 5: I would tell you to wait. I don't think it's

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Speaker 5: going to go higher. If it does, I maybe five.

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Speaker 1: And a half.

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Speaker 5: I can't If you want Portland's I think your window

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Speaker 5: for the best numbers has already missed. If you want

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Speaker 5: Denver than I think now is probably the time to

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Speaker 5: get in. As we'll listeners, it's five again by the

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Speaker 5: time you listen to this, and may have moved. You

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Speaker 5: want to check that in the Action Network ap. But

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Speaker 5: we agree that we think Portland's gonna win Game six.

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Speaker 5: It's a game seven and for all you that we've

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Speaker 5: talked about You're right that the Blazers are more dependent

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Speaker 5: on shooting variants. That's absolutely true. In a game seven,

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Speaker 5: that's all that matters. Like, I've just seen too many

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Speaker 5: game sevens. Game sevens are not about who the better

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Speaker 5: team is. I'll tell you this right now. Like my

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Speaker 5: belief is that if you get to a game seven,

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Speaker 5: those teams are even, Like, there is no determining factor

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Speaker 5: between those two teams. We will always narratively be like, oh,

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Speaker 5: they were the better team, they won that series. But

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Speaker 5: if you get to seven, it really is just you

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Speaker 5: both made adjustments, you both counter what the other one did.

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Speaker 5: You couldn't get an edge on the other one to

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Speaker 5: finish them off, and as a result, you're in a

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Speaker 5: Game seven where literally it just comes down to who

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Speaker 5: makes shots. So the twenty nineteen series between these two teams,

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Speaker 5: everyone remembers c J McCall. I'm going absolutely bonkers, and

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Speaker 5: CJ was great in that series and he's due for

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Speaker 5: a big game and I kind of expect CJ to

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Speaker 5: have a big Game six. The difference maker in Game

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Speaker 5: seven for Portland, I am not kidding you, no shit.

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Speaker 5: It was Evan Turner and Meyers Leonard. Those two guys

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Speaker 5: came in and hit big shots in Game seven. Stotts

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Speaker 5: had not played them like they had been out of

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Speaker 5: the playoff rotation, and he was so desperate to find something.

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Speaker 5: He threw out Evan Turner and Meyers Leonard as a

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Speaker 5: hail Mary, and it worked out, because that's how it goes.

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Speaker 5: In Game seven, Meyers Leonard, like, if he throws out

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Speaker 5: Rondez Hollis Jefferson and Jefferson goes off for six points

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Speaker 5: on like two offensive rebounds, that might be the difference

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Speaker 5: if they get Simons.

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Speaker 6: If Simon's just like, and Simons is a really good shooter,

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Speaker 6: he's forty percent plus.

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Speaker 5: But if like Simons comes in and just like throws

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Speaker 5: up five threes and goes four or five like, that's

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Speaker 5: it game over versus for Denver. If we're in a

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Speaker 5: shooting variance environment like a Game seven, I don't want

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Speaker 5: Faku Compaza involved in in my bet. I don't want

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Speaker 5: I honestly, as much as I think Aaron Gordon has

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Speaker 5: played great in this series, and last night he was huge.

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Speaker 5: He's hit two big threes in two of their of

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Speaker 5: their big wins this series, I don't want to rely

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Speaker 5: on Aaron Gordon hitting outside threes, Like that's fair. The

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Speaker 5: shooting variants leaned so much towards Portland in the Game

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Speaker 5: seven because of that, the inherent nature of what game

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Speaker 5: sevens are.

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Speaker 1: How do you feel like home home court factors into it?

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Speaker 6: I mean, do you think Portland feels like it can't win?

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Speaker 6: Because this is my thing with going to Portland. One

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Speaker 6: one is I was like, the Nuggets are fine.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Like I knew the Nuggets were fine once they

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Speaker 5: won they got the split.

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Speaker 6: In Denver, I was that they're fine.

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Speaker 5: Denver has no fear of going to Portland and getting

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Speaker 5: a game, But Portland doesn't have any fear of going

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Speaker 5: to like they know that they can win. In Denver,

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Speaker 5: they did it in twenty nineteen, they won a Game seven.

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Speaker 5: The Denver crowd, I will say, has been better than

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Speaker 5: probably any year that I've ever covered the team, like

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Speaker 5: for it being not full capacity and the crowd being

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Speaker 5: as good as it's been. Like, bear in mind, this

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Speaker 5: is a team that in Game two of the twenty

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Speaker 5: nineteen series, they booed the team going into half because

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Speaker 5: they couldn't hit shots like Game two of the second

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Speaker 5: round in the first half they booed them to the

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Speaker 5: locker room because Denver was missing shots, and I was like,

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Speaker 5: what are you doing? This is not how you support

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Speaker 5: a team like this is not what they need to

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Speaker 5: hear going into half. They didn't play badly, they just

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Speaker 5: missed shots. So I think the crowd's been really good

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Speaker 5: and the altitude is obviously like a thing that that's

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Speaker 5: always the thing. But they've been bouncing back and forth.

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Speaker 5: So and they'll probably what they'll do is Portland will

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Speaker 5: leave immediately after Game six. They'll fly to Denver the

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Speaker 5: next day to acclimate, and then they'll play game seven.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if I was like if I if

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Speaker 1: I've really because I'm probably not gonna play tomorrow's game,

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Speaker 1: But if I really like Porton, I would, I would

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Speaker 1: take them for the series. Now I think they're like

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Speaker 1: plus two h five. Yeah, Like I think that's the

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Speaker 1: way to play it as well. And I had I

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Speaker 1: had Portland, you know, before the series.

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Speaker 5: Like I said, in a lot of ways, I don't

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Speaker 5: think I can double down because I do think like

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Speaker 5: I think Denver's outplayed them. I just think Denver's been

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Speaker 5: better than them, Like they got absolutely trouncing game four.

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Speaker 1: But that was like, so, I, you know, I crushed.

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Speaker 5: The Nuggets last year for their Game three performance in

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Speaker 5: versus Utah where they just like no showed like I

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Speaker 5: went on radio stations here in Denver. I I like

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Speaker 5: on my Nuggets podcast, I did that, like I crushed

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Speaker 5: that team.

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Speaker 6: This did not feel like that.

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Speaker 5: Like Game four very much felt like a okay, joker's

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Speaker 5: not having a good game. They're at home, we got

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Speaker 5: the split. We're back to two two, all right, that's fine.

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Speaker 5: Like there is a certain level, I do think to

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Speaker 5: where if you expect a series to go long, it's

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Speaker 5: hard for you to really put the hammer down because

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Speaker 5: you're just like, man, it doesn't matter if we go

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Speaker 5: hard in this game.

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Speaker 6: They're gonna be like, they're gonna get this one. They're not.

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Speaker 5: So we're not so much better than them that we

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Speaker 5: can we can win this one. I think that there

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Speaker 5: is like a certain amount of like realism that does

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Speaker 5: creep in with certain teams when they know that the

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Speaker 5: series is gonna go long.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting. It's just you know, I mean, I agree

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Speaker 1: with you when you say that the Nuggets have out play,

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Speaker 1: like I felt like Game one was theirs. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: then you know, somewhere along the third quarter, they they

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Speaker 1: kind of lost their way. So I'm just this this

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Speaker 1: is a true pick them series. So but I just

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Speaker 1: I think the Nuggets have been a better team, all.

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Speaker 6: Right, talk to me about totals.

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Speaker 5: So, I don't know if you know this, but in

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Speaker 5: a one game last night, the overhit the underhits in

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Speaker 5: game four. We had the over in game three, the

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Speaker 5: over in game two, and the over in game one,

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Speaker 5: and the number has been basically the same, like two

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Speaker 5: twenty six in the opener to twenty four in game two,

250
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Speaker 5: two twenty seven in game three, that's the one that

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Speaker 5: went over, so when they moved the lineup, but then

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Speaker 5: it was under into in game four, two twenty seven,

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Speaker 5: so we we they've adjusted the line up because of

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Speaker 5: the efficiency. These games are not fast, they're just super

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Speaker 5: efficient because Denver can't get stops versus Dame and Portland

256
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Speaker 5: can't stop literally anything like this. This this was the

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Speaker 5: big miss by me in this series. Was I gave

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Speaker 5: some somehow, Rahim and like, you should kill me for this.

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Speaker 5: Somehow I gave the Portland defense too much credit? How

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Speaker 5: did I do that? How did how after watching this

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Speaker 5: team for three years and being like their defense is trashed.

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Speaker 5: Their bigs can't move, their guards can't get over screens,

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Speaker 5: they can't get stops. How did I overestimate even versus

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Speaker 5: Faku Compazo, Austin Rivers, Monte Morris and Marcus Howard who.

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Speaker 6: Got points last night? How did I overestimate the Blazers defense?

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Speaker 5: Your big totals guy, Like, do you think that we've

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Speaker 5: got a trend here towards the over? Do we feel

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Speaker 5: like that's maybe the play for me?

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Speaker 1: Like with these totals in the playoffs, when I find

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Speaker 1: an angle, I betted until like it's no longer there.

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Speaker 1: So with like the Lakers series, I kept betting under,

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Speaker 1: like I think it opened two twelve and then now

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Speaker 1: it's down to like two oh seven, So like I

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Speaker 1: come out firing as soon as the series starts, Like

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Speaker 1: even with this series, I think the game one was

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Speaker 1: like two twenty six or something like that. I played

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Speaker 1: the over like I kept playing over on this series.

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Speaker 1: And I understand why you overadjusted because with the change

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Speaker 1: from Gary Trent Junior to Norman Powell, their defense has

280
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Speaker 1: actually improved a bit. Now, some of that was down

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Speaker 1: the stretch where you know certain teams were tanking, and

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Speaker 1: certain teams are out of it or just you know,

283
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Speaker 1: getting ready for the playoffs. But they look like the

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Speaker 1: better defensive team than they were for most of the year,

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Speaker 1: So I understand it. But and then obviously with the pace,

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Speaker 1: you know, a lot of these these totals are just

287
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Speaker 1: predicated on how fat, like how many possessions you're playing,

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Speaker 1: So I get it. But it was just it was

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Speaker 1: pretty clear from game one that these teams weren't gonna

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Speaker 1: be able to stop each other. I mean, there were

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Speaker 1: games in which the Nuggets were shooting eighty percent at

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Speaker 1: the rim, and then obviously the Nuggets, I mean, the

293
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Speaker 1: Blazers are shooting forty percent of their shots from behind

294
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Speaker 1: the art and they don't have anybody who can stop

295
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Speaker 1: these guards. So you're gonna get a lot of points.

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Speaker 5: Let me let me make a contrarian argument here to

297
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Speaker 5: go over the under, okay, because I might I might

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Speaker 5: actually play the I might play the under.

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Speaker 1: So we got games.

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Speaker 5: The one game that went under because Denver just couldn't score, right,

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Speaker 5: and that was the desperation game that we said, like

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Speaker 5: Portland's gotta win. Yeah, now that was a bad jokic game.

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Speaker 5: I don't know if we can count on two bad

304
00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:12,720
Speaker 5: Yokic games in this series. It was a bad Yokic

305
00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:15,000
Speaker 5: game and a bad Dame game. That's what's crazy, Like

306
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Speaker 5: think about that. I just as a side note, Rahim

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Speaker 5: the Nuggets lost a game in which Damian Lillard went

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Speaker 5: one for ten for ten points, and they won a

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Speaker 5: game where Damian Lillard went off for fifty five points

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Speaker 5: on twenty four shots.

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Speaker 1: Like that's crazy.

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Speaker 5: But if we kind of take the same concepts of

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Speaker 5: Game four, Blazers have to win this game, backs against

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Speaker 5: the wall. They're gonna come out firing home crowd behind them.

315
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Speaker 5: Norman Powell probably has a bounce back game. CJ probably

316
00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:46,800
Speaker 5: has a bounce back game, but more likely, like their

317
00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:49,360
Speaker 5: defensive intensity, Nurkic probably doesn't fall out in this one.

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Speaker 5: If we take those factors into play. Don't like the under,

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Speaker 5: especially at two twenty seven in a slow paced game,

320
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Speaker 5: right like it does it It takes I mean obviously

321
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Speaker 5: like last night, like you know, one hundred and eighty

322
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Speaker 5: seven points. I get it, but that was double overtime

323
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Speaker 5: and I'd have to go back and look at I

324
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Speaker 5: think that's.

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Speaker 1: Key too, the fact that they played a double overtime game.

326
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Speaker 1: That's big. Like I like to look at stuff like

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Speaker 1: that when I'm playing under mm.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, that's true. That's that's true too. I think

329
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Speaker 6: I think the I have to go back and check

330
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Speaker 6: with the game three in Portland or.

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Speaker 5: Game four after because everyone could I wrote I and

332
00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:31,800
Speaker 5: everyone else wrote the Nuggets off in game four in

333
00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:36,520
Speaker 5: twenty nineteen when they lost that quadruple overtime game, and

334
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Speaker 5: then the Nuggets come back and like dominated Game four

335
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Speaker 5: to get that victory. Yeah, I know it's still when

336
00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:44,680
Speaker 5: it's still would have gone over pretty easily. It still

337
00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:47,840
Speaker 5: went over easily and over in regulation. But I still

338
00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:49,640
Speaker 5: kind of think the game six might be an underplay.

339
00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:50,960
Speaker 5: And then if you get in the game seven, I

340
00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:52,520
Speaker 5: don't think you can take an over because we know

341
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Speaker 5: how those game sevens are.

342
00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:54,040
Speaker 6: They're stilted.

343
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Speaker 5: Everyone's so nervous, everyone's so tight, like it comes down

344
00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:59,120
Speaker 5: to like a handful of shots being made. Like I mean,

345
00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:00,560
Speaker 5: I don't know what the trend is, but I'm pretty

346
00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:02,720
Speaker 5: sure game sevens are just like insanely good for the

347
00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:06,920
Speaker 5: under right. Oh but they're also but they're also lining

348
00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,560
Speaker 5: that way appropriately like the books will always like drop

349
00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:11,160
Speaker 5: it a few and the market will probably adjust it

350
00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:13,280
Speaker 5: down too. So like if you like, if this goes

351
00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:16,040
Speaker 5: seven and you want the under, you're probably gonna want

352
00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:18,560
Speaker 5: to get it early. Like that would be my assumption

353
00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:21,560
Speaker 5: of like how they should probably play this is like.

354
00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:23,600
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, without a doubt, I think, I think, I mean,

355
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,400
Speaker 1: you're pretty much as soon as Game seven opens, you

356
00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:29,640
Speaker 1: have to bet that under. You could blindly take unders

357
00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:31,720
Speaker 1: in game sevens and you'll be profitable.

358
00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:33,320
Speaker 6: Yeah, here, so here, here it is.

359
00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:33,680
Speaker 1: I got it.

360
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:37,160
Speaker 5: Since I start, I consider the modern start of basketball

361
00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:38,720
Speaker 5: to be twenty fourteen fifteen.

362
00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:39,880
Speaker 6: That's the first Warriors year.

363
00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:43,320
Speaker 5: The unders in game seven are twenty eight and twelve

364
00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:45,560
Speaker 5: for a seventy percent hit rate.

365
00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:48,960
Speaker 6: That's per killersports dot com. So we're on the same.

366
00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:50,680
Speaker 5: Pagere I think if we get if it gets the

367
00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:53,360
Speaker 5: game seven, the books are probably gonna market low, but

368
00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:56,080
Speaker 5: you should still probably hit the under as early as

369
00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:57,600
Speaker 5: possible if you want them in game seven.

370
00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,200
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, And we think we multiple We had multiple

371
00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:03,920
Speaker 1: game sevens last year. I think we had where we

372
00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:08,000
Speaker 1: had Nuggets versus Clippers, we had Nuggets versus Jazz, we

373
00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:10,720
Speaker 1: had Celtics versus Raptors. All of them went under.

374
00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:13,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, even in the bubble with all the great shooting

375
00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:15,840
Speaker 5: that happen. So yeah, make sure that you're ready to

376
00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:18,200
Speaker 5: fire if this goes to seven. I kind of lean

377
00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:20,280
Speaker 5: towards the under. I'll say this, if you like the

378
00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:23,080
Speaker 5: Nuggets in games in game six, then you should bet

379
00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:25,280
Speaker 5: the over. If you like the Blazers, you should at

380
00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:27,800
Speaker 5: the under, like I would. I would honestly think that

381
00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:30,120
Speaker 5: I I don't see a lot of scenarios.

382
00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:31,400
Speaker 1: It's possible just.

383
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,520
Speaker 5: Because of variants, right, like you just had in garbage

384
00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:37,040
Speaker 5: time or whatever. But I have the most likely scenarios

385
00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:41,120
Speaker 5: if we're doing probability variants I think are a game

386
00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:43,440
Speaker 5: six win means that Portland played great, put up a

387
00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:45,439
Speaker 5: big number, but the Nuggets also got blown out and

388
00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 5: only scored less than one hundred like in Game four.

389
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:50,920
Speaker 5: And if the Nuggets win, they win like one twenty seven,

390
00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:53,399
Speaker 5: Like that's probably the outcome.

391
00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:56,680
Speaker 6: Okay, we're gonna skip ahead a little bit here.

392
00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:02,720
Speaker 5: We're recording this on Wednesday morning and tonight at there

393
00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:05,560
Speaker 5: are a number of games looking for the gentleman's sweep.

394
00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:07,560
Speaker 6: Rahim, do you know what the gentleman's sweep is?

395
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:10,439
Speaker 1: Yeah? Four one?

396
00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,960
Speaker 5: Do you know that I invented that phrase, really me,

397
00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:17,159
Speaker 5: and I have to give my friend Graydon Gordian Or

398
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:18,919
Speaker 5: he used to write a Spurs blog credit.

399
00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:21,199
Speaker 6: We were on the phone. This was like two thousand

400
00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:22,160
Speaker 6: and eleven.

401
00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:24,640
Speaker 5: We're on the phone and I was like, I think

402
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,800
Speaker 5: that this is probably gonna happen. We're talking about a series,

403
00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:29,240
Speaker 5: and I was like, I think this is probably gonna happen.

404
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:31,119
Speaker 5: It's not gonna be a sweep, but it's gonna be like,

405
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:33,560
Speaker 5: you know, a nice sweep where you give them one

406
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:37,280
Speaker 5: and and my friend Graydon said, like a gentleman's sweep.

407
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:39,200
Speaker 5: And that was and we started using it and now

408
00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:42,439
Speaker 5: it's like been coined. It's honestly, Rahim, I don't. I

409
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 5: try not to brag a lot. I try really hard

410
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,800
Speaker 5: not to victory lap. That's maybe my biggest contribution to

411
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,440
Speaker 5: basketball culture is that I coined jellus, are.

412
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,359
Speaker 1: You better than me? You know, I'd be bragging. I

413
00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:54,159
Speaker 1: would brag about that for the eternity.

414
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:57,800
Speaker 5: So as we record this, the Sixers are going for

415
00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:00,719
Speaker 5: the gentleman sweep versus the Wizards.

416
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,920
Speaker 6: Westbrook's questionable. Then embiid is I think out.

417
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 5: I think he's been listed out for this game or

418
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:10,639
Speaker 5: it probably questionable, right, he's questionable. Hawks are going for

419
00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:13,120
Speaker 5: the gentleman sweet versus the Knicks. The Jazz are going

420
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:16,560
Speaker 5: for the gentleman sweep versus the Grizzlies. Dallas Clippers is

421
00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:18,959
Speaker 5: going to go to at least six. So we agree

422
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,080
Speaker 5: that the Hawks have just shown that they're better. We

423
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:22,760
Speaker 5: thought this was going to be a long series when

424
00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:26,080
Speaker 5: we did our preview, but it was pretty apparent to

425
00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:29,440
Speaker 5: me by like Game two. I really needed the Knicks

426
00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:32,239
Speaker 5: to win Game four, Like I was hoping that the

427
00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:36,480
Speaker 5: Hawks would just screw up and let and even the

428
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,199
Speaker 5: series because I wanted to get a better price on

429
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,560
Speaker 5: the Hawks, and I should have just taken the Like

430
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 5: I learned something. Once you get to that point a

431
00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:45,920
Speaker 5: series where you're like, oh no, they're better.

432
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 6: Yeah, just if you're gonna bet the series, pay the juice.

433
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 1: Just just do it. Just do it and bet the

434
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:56,160
Speaker 1: series if they if they lose, you can just add more. Yeah,

435
00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:58,080
Speaker 1: Like that's the one thing I've learned. It's just like

436
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,439
Speaker 1: you could you could take another like there's nothing stapping

437
00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:01,800
Speaker 1: you there.

438
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:03,240
Speaker 6: Yeah, that's a great point.

439
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,920
Speaker 5: So I wish that i'd just taken Hawks after game two,

440
00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 5: because after Game two, I was like, oh, they're just better,

441
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:10,920
Speaker 5: like they because you know, Game one, even though the

442
00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:12,960
Speaker 5: Knicks won that game, I was like, man, so much

443
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,800
Speaker 5: had to go right, Like so much had to go right.

444
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 6: But you know, I was a little bit nervous about like, Okay, how.

445
00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 1: Are they going to react?

446
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:21,400
Speaker 5: Atlanta's home court has not been awesome through the years,

447
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,600
Speaker 5: those kind of things. We can feel pretty confident, like

448
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,000
Speaker 5: the Hawks have honestly outclassed this Knick team. I've been

449
00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 5: really impressed with Atlanta. Philly's gonna get by the Wizards,

450
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,080
Speaker 5: whether it's tonight or if the Wizards manage to extend

451
00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:36,720
Speaker 5: this in Game six. The knees soreness for EMBID is

452
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 5: obviously concerned. It's always like this is the thing with

453
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:41,680
Speaker 5: the Sixers, no matter how. And you tweeted this morning

454
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 5: about the on off numbers for EMBIID, which are just

455
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:52,560
Speaker 5: like just fucking absurd, Like yeah, they're just ridiculous, but

456
00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:53,399
Speaker 5: you can't.

457
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 1: This is the like it's always something like it's it is,

458
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:02,919
Speaker 1: it's always something every single it's it's every playoff, regular

459
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 1: season game, the playoffs, like they win that Raptor series

460
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,560
Speaker 1: if and B doesn't get sick from eating too many

461
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:14,640
Speaker 1: cheeseburgers or whatever it was. It's just, I mean, the best,

462
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 1: like the best skills, availability, and reliability. He just hasn't

463
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 1: been it in the regular season and in the postseason.

464
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:23,360
Speaker 1: So it's definitely a concern.

465
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 5: Okay, so let's let's go ahead and assume that the

466
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,959
Speaker 5: Hawks and six Ers advance. We know the Hawks are

467
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 5: gonna be big dogs. I gotta tell you, I think

468
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,880
Speaker 5: I'm probably gonna be looking to bet the Hawks on

469
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 5: the series spread. I don't want them take him to win.

470
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,760
Speaker 5: I'm not that bold, right, and it's looking like my

471
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 5: Maverick Like after Game two of the Mavericks series, I

472
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 5: was like, why didn't I just pick the Mavericks to win?

473
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 5: I'm such a coward. And now I'm like, aha, I

474
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 5: was so smart to take plus two and a half

475
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 5: and plus one and a half.

476
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,360
Speaker 6: I don't want to take the Hawks to win that series.

477
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 5: I do you who kind of feel like the Hawks

478
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 5: might be able to hang in this series? I don't

479
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 5: hate this matchup as much as I thought I might.

480
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 6: What are your thoughts about the series?

481
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 4: Is?

482
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 5: If we take it like an early advanced look at

483
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 5: it before both series wrap and we get a series prices.

484
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 1: As a Sixers fan, the one thing I've noticed is

485
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,919
Speaker 1: that they've always struggled to defend smaller guards. I mean,

486
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,159
Speaker 1: you look at anybody from Trey Young to Kimball Walker

487
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 1: to Kyrie Irvin to Damian Lillard. That's always been there kryptonite.

488
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 1: I mean, these two teams played three times this year

489
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:35,919
Speaker 1: and neither one were healthy for any game. So you

490
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,479
Speaker 1: have to throw out this season. And when you look

491
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,399
Speaker 1: at Trey Young's career, he's averaged twenty one He's averaged

492
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:43,720
Speaker 1: twenty seven points, nine assists in four and a half

493
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,399
Speaker 1: rebounds in nine games against the Sixers, and he has

494
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:50,399
Speaker 1: a five to four record, and he's had inferior teams

495
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,640
Speaker 1: in every single one of those games. So if Trey

496
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:55,920
Speaker 1: Young is going to continue to be this guy from

497
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,360
Speaker 1: this Knick series, he can't be stopped in the pick

498
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,640
Speaker 1: and roll. And they have shoot in Bogdanovic and they

499
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:06,919
Speaker 1: have Herder and Lou Williams and Gallinari. I think the nugget,

500
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 1: I think that the Hawks are like really live to

501
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:13,199
Speaker 1: actually make it a series, especially if m B is

502
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 1: not and then obviously with MB, you have to worry

503
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:21,919
Speaker 1: about him and drop coverage. What happens if you know

504
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:23,879
Speaker 1: they put him in a pick and roll? What's he

505
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 1: gonna do with Trey Young? So I think that I

506
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 1: think the Hawks can get one or two games in

507
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 1: the series. I really do. I think they're live.

508
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 5: It's gonna be interesting to see what the Sixers do

509
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:37,119
Speaker 5: with lineups, right, because I don't think like there's kind

510
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 5: of an assumption that they'll start title. I don't think

511
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,399
Speaker 5: they will, Like I don't think that Doc. Doc doesn't

512
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,200
Speaker 5: do stuff like that. I mean, the whole thing last

513
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 5: year was that he didn't deviate from from tres. That

514
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 5: was the whole thing was that he wouldn't get away

515
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 5: from the game plan and like what had brought Like

516
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 5: Doc is definitely a dance with who brung you guy?

517
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 5: That is how he coaches, and like the tibles are

518
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 5: part of the rotation, and I think you'll play. I

519
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,959
Speaker 5: don't see him starting. And so if you've now I

520
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 5: like Danny Green guarding tray, that's not bad. But yeah,

521
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,479
Speaker 5: as I always say, like these this idea of like,

522
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 5: oh who's gonna guard the point guard? It doesn't matter, guys,

523
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 5: It's about how your coverages and pick and roll, which

524
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,679
Speaker 5: requires more than one person. You can either switch or

525
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 5: you're gonna have to do two guys. I went back

526
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 5: and watched yesterday every clip of Tray versus the Sixers

527
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 5: this year.

528
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 6: Here is like an interesting thing.

529
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 1: And bid the Sixers play.

530
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:32,480
Speaker 5: For those of you that don't know, the Sixers play

531
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 5: what's called an ice pick and roll system.

532
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 1: The whole design is they want to push.

533
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 5: You away from the middle of the floor, which is

534
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,199
Speaker 5: really smart with Tray Young, but you can only do

535
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 5: so much, and he can actually just come around and

536
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 5: basically attack the middle from an angle, coming in from

537
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 5: basically the corner of the free throw line, right like

538
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 5: near the nail. Embiid would step up higher and Bead

539
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 5: usually drops, and he usually drops pretty dramatically, like mb

540
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:57,719
Speaker 5: basically wants to sit back and be like, hey, if

541
00:24:57,720 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 5: you take that mid range jumper, that's fine. If you

542
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 5: want to challenge me at the I want to block

543
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 5: the snot out of you. He comes up a little

544
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 5: higher on Trey, and that's obvious because of the floater.

545
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,360
Speaker 5: Now Trey, the problem is that Trey can legitimately hit

546
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 5: like a sixteen foot floater.

547
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:12,959
Speaker 6: Like that's how good his floater is.

548
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 5: But the other thing is, like, imagine on a court,

549
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:18,880
Speaker 5: you got a middle pick and roll, high pick and roll,

550
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 5: Trey gets the free throw line, Embiid steps up. That

551
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 5: back area behind him is now wide open. And if

552
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 5: you run pick and roll with somebody who is not

553
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 5: Clint Cappella, right, if you put if like you if

554
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 5: they're running pick and roll with somebody else, but Embiid

555
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:42,679
Speaker 5: is guarding that that bigger guy on the screen, like

556
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 5: say it's Collins. Let's say the embiad's guarding Collins because

557
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 5: they know they're going to run that Collins pops, Embiid

558
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 5: steps up. Now you have no rim protection on the

559
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 5: back line versus Capella Capella in the regular season, and

560
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 5: you're right that the injuries were a big part of this,

561
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:58,919
Speaker 5: like nobody was healthy in that regular season, But this

562
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,920
Speaker 5: does stand out to me. In sixty eight minutes of

563
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 5: play versus the Sixers this season, Clint Capella was a

564
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 5: plus seven point one in net rating with a one

565
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 5: oh four point two offensive rating and a ninety seven

566
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 5: point one defensive rating. Like they struggle to score against

567
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 5: Capella in a kind of the same thing, because the

568
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 5: Hawks can do a lot of the same stuff.

569
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 6: They're not worried about dropping.

570
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 5: And then you've got DeAndre Hunter and John Collins to

571
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 5: guard Tobias Harris, which the Wizards just do not have

572
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 5: anybody to guard. To buy it, Like, that's a total mismatch.

573
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:41,479
Speaker 5: I like Collins and Hunter both in that situation. I

574
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 5: like them both in that spot to guard to Bias

575
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 5: at least to be able to slow him down. Yeah,

576
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 5: So this is all to say, like again, I don't

577
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 5: think that the Hawks are gonna win this series, and

578
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 5: I think there will be games where MBID plays and

579
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 5: drops forty five and just destroys them because Capella is

580
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 5: going to be your size. And I'll say this, I've

581
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,880
Speaker 5: killed Mbiid for three years about his double team play.

582
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 5: He's he was great in this Wizard series versus the

583
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:08,719
Speaker 5: double team.

584
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:09,239
Speaker 4: Uh.

585
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 5: If m Bad's healthy, then I think that they're gonna

586
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 5: win this series. But I do think that you're probably

587
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 5: still gonna get a pretty good price on him.

588
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:20,919
Speaker 6: What I really need is I need for honestly.

589
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:24,680
Speaker 5: Here's here's Like, the ideal situation is the Wizards win

590
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 5: tonight's game, which is unlikely. The Wizards win tonight's game,

591
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 5: the Sixers destroy them in Game six back in back

592
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:38,920
Speaker 5: in Washington, just annihilate them, and then they're super heavy

593
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 5: favorites versus the Hawks. So I can get Hawks plus

594
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 5: two and a half at something closer to like minus

595
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 5: one fifty because you.

596
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:47,359
Speaker 1: Need the Hawks to lose to Night as well.

597
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 5: Maybe maybe, but I think that there's kind of a

598
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 5: perception of like, man, the Knicks just aren't that good,

599
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 5: Like I think I think the words out that, like,

600
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:56,639
Speaker 5: I mean, look, we talked about this.

601
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:57,680
Speaker 1: Here I will say this.

602
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,199
Speaker 5: I'm here's another reason I'm disappointed that we went like, oh,

603
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 5: I think the series is going to go long over.

604
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 5: I overthought it because all year long I was like,

605
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 5: you and I talked about this. We're like, can't wait

606
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 5: to beg against him in the playoffs, can't wait to

607
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 5: bed against hims in the playoffs. And then he faced

608
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 5: this underrated, inexperienced Hawks team that really wasn't healthy until

609
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 5: the end of the year because of Bogdanovic, and Bogdanovitch

610
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 5: has just been like he has been so much better

611
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 5: than I expected. I thought he would be like, oh, yeah,

612
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:30,679
Speaker 5: pretty good. I thought he would be like very Gallo

613
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,399
Speaker 5: twenty and thirteen ish, where Gallo was pretty good in

614
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,680
Speaker 5: the playoffs before his ACL injury. Now by the way,

615
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 5: he's toast, but like Bogie's been just lights out, yeah

616
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 5: black him.

617
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 1: I feel like the NBA stole a championship from the Bucks,

618
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 1: right right, He's just been that good. Yeah. So I

619
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 1: think the one thing about that next series is that

620
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 1: I felt like DeAndre Hunter would be an impact player.

621
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 1: I didn't know Jill Randall would have his his power

622
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 1: stolen by the Monstars like he's basically he hasn't shown

623
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 1: up like he's had like one of the worst field

624
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 1: goal percentages again over sixty years from somebody who's taken

625
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 1: as much shots as him. So I just didn't see

626
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 1: him playing that poorly. But I do think if the

627
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 1: Knicks can actually win tonight and then push them a

628
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 1: little bit in game six, you could see their power rating,

629
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 1: you know, fall a little bit. All right.

630
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 5: You can track all of Raheem's picks in the Action

631
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 5: Network app. He continues to absolutely kill it. Great stuff

632
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 5: from him as always, follow him on Twitter as well.

633
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 6: What I need? Can you just in what how do

634
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 6: I like? Say your Twitter name?

635
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 1: Okay, so my d I'm gonna change this soon because

636
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 1: I think it's confusing a lot of people. But my

637
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 1: DJ name was DJ R to the is A jay

638
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 1: Z had a song called A to the.

639
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 5: Yes, I'm aware of A I am aware of ho

640
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 5: but thank you l No.

641
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,040
Speaker 1: But it's for anybody else who wasn't paying Also that song.

642
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 5: I also just realized that, like, I can't be offended

643
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 5: because that song is actually so old because it came

644
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 5: out when I was in college.

645
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 1: Came when I was in high school. I was in

646
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 1: high school, and I was like challenges like you guys

647
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 1: see me victory lap a lot, but I'm very competitive,

648
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 1: like I have a Kobe MJ like competitive nature. So

649
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 1: I'm challenging somebody to like basketball. And I'm like, hey,

650
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 1: you don't want to what arts and it is? And

651
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 1: all the girls started laughing. So when I started DJing,

652
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 1: my my nickname became DJ arts at Isa and people

653
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 1: call me Art to the for sure.

654
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 5: Okay, all right, you can follow him on Twitter, follow

655
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 5: me and you'll pick up enough of his tweets. Uh,

656
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 5: you can check me out at HP Basketball. Thanks for

657
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 5: joining me, Rahiem, and then we'll talk to you on

658
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 5: Friday for Bucks Nuts the Mega Preview.

659
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 1: Thanks Radine No problem.

660
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 2: This is Action Network podcast producer Matt Mitchell here to

661
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684
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685
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Speaker 2: not available in the data. Thanks for listening. Now back

688
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 2: to the show.

689
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 1: All right, join me now?

690
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 6: Is Justin fan.

691
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 5: Justin I always forget your title? What's your full title?

692
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 5: Over at Fantasy Laps.

693
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 3: I guess Director of Betting Analytics, which is a total,

694
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 3: totally made up title. Uh, you know, I just kind

695
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 3: of do the news, the projections and then whatever else

696
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 3: they ask me to do over there.

697
00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 6: Director is such a great title, though, Like, titles.

698
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 5: Are generally dumb and and nobody should care about them.

699
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,719
Speaker 5: But I always wanted to senior NBA writer title, and

700
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 5: so when I started at Action, they were like, oh,

701
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 5: you need like a title.

702
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 6: What title do you want?

703
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:44,720
Speaker 5: And I was like, I want senior NBA writer because

704
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 5: I've wanted it forever. So it was a big win

705
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 5: for me to get that. Speaking of big wins like

706
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 5: that transition, let's talk about the Phoenix Suns and the

707
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 5: Los Angeles Lakers. The Suns absolutely stomped the life out

708
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 5: of the Lakers in Game five, just absolutely destroy them,

709
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 5: up thirty at halftime.

710
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 1: The predictable funeral has begun.

711
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 5: You've got the avalanche of articles of Lebron facing his legacy,

712
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 5: faces elimination in Game six, and then predictably to end,

713
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 5: the odds I should say, have LinkedIn considerably on the

714
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 5: Los Angeles Lakers. You've got news today that just coming

715
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 5: out right before this podcast that Anthony Davis is hinting

716
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 5: at a return for Game six from that groin injury.

717
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 5: He's obviously not gonna be one hundred percent. He's not

718
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 5: gonna bee hundred percent Throughout these playoffs. Nobody's one hundred percent.

719
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 5: Nobody's ever one hundred percent in the playoffs, But this

720
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 5: year it's more like nobody's eighty percent. Everyone's like sixty

721
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 5: to seventy percent in this year's playoffs. The biggest question

722
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 5: I have right off the bat to ask you is

723
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:47,240
Speaker 5: first off, by the way, I just want to mention this.

724
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 5: I bet MGM, the official odds provider of the Action

725
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 5: Network podcast, Lakers are now ten to one to win

726
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 5: the NBA Championship, down three to two. If you're someone

727
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 5: like me that if they have bet early on the Lakers,

728
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 5: bet consistently throughout the year on the Lakers. Added to

729
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 5: his position. Now, I have a pretty diverse like portfolio

730
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 5: as far as NBA futures go. Like, I've diversified my

731
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 5: position quite a bit, finding the best numbers of various spots,

732
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 5: but I am definitely most leveraged on the Lakers. Do

733
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:21,759
Speaker 5: I need to start looking for ways to counter this?

734
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,399
Speaker 5: Do I need to hold fast? What do you think

735
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 5: is the approach to take if you're somebody like I

736
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 5: would imagine a lot of folks are that have Lakers

737
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:30,800
Speaker 5: futures at this point.

738
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:32,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, I think the best way to hedge out

739
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:35,319
Speaker 3: some of your risks, some of your liability is to

740
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 3: probably just bet the Sun's money line next game. I

741
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:42,520
Speaker 3: think this team is most vulnerable right now when eighties hurt,

742
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 3: when the bronze is not quite one hundred percent, when

743
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:47,480
Speaker 3: these guys are not hitting their jump shots. I think

744
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 3: if they make it past this series, they're in pretty

745
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,359
Speaker 3: good shape. I mean, you still like your odds. You're

746
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 3: playing the winner of Nuggets Blazers. That should if you're

747
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 3: going to be the Phoenix Suns in round one, you

748
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 3: should be able to handle business in round two, right.

749
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:02,799
Speaker 3: So I think their biggest hurdle is just getting out

750
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 3: of this series intact, right, And you bet money line

751
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 3: Suns money line game six. If it rolls over to

752
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,240
Speaker 3: game seven, Anthony Davis should be I don't know, ninety

753
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 3: percent by then, and I think they should be favored

754
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:17,839
Speaker 3: in that. Game seven. You could roll it again and

755
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 3: I bet sugns money line again in game seven. But yeah,

756
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 3: I think if they make it out of this series,

757
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 3: I'm still pretty long on this team as long as

758
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 3: eighty and Lebron are close to one hundred percent.

759
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:28,320
Speaker 6: It's crazy.

760
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:30,839
Speaker 5: The prices on the series have been just hilarious game

761
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 5: by game compared to both the futures prices and the

762
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,839
Speaker 5: series price. So like, the Suns are plus one point

763
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 5: fifteen to win Game six via bet MGM, but they're

764
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 5: minus three point fifty to win the series.

765
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 1: So like, that's a lot. That's all.

766
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 5: That is a pretty big like estimation that well, even

767
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 5: if the Lakers were to win Game six, the Sons

768
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 5: would take care of it in Game seven. I understand

769
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 5: the history of home games in game sevens I don't

770
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:03,360
Speaker 5: necessarily trust it in this environment with Lebron James, with

771
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 5: this level of team, given everything, and just the fact that, like,

772
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:10,240
Speaker 5: I just think that like through the years we've just seen,

773
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,280
Speaker 5: I think home court advantage has obviously shifted.

774
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:15,920
Speaker 6: There's been trends on that in general.

775
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:18,319
Speaker 5: Look, the Sun's crowd has been great, but I don't

776
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 5: think the Suns should be any sort of like massive

777
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,800
Speaker 5: favorite in Game seven. If they're plus one point fifteen

778
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 5: in Game six.

779
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a big disconnect there for me. If the

780
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 3: Lakers are two point favorites in Game six, they should

781
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 3: not be that long to win the series, right, So

782
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 3: I think you just hold tight with your with your

783
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 3: Lakers futures, hope for the best with AD, and then

784
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:40,360
Speaker 3: you can hedge out with some Suns money line. I

785
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:42,760
Speaker 3: think that's the play. If they make out a series,

786
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 3: you're facing Nugets players. You shouldn't really be afraid of

787
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 3: either of those teams. If you're the Lakers and you

788
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 3: have eighty and Lebron healthy, and then by the time

789
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 3: you go to the conference finals against either the Jazz

790
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:56,880
Speaker 3: or the Clippers, likely those guys should definitely be healthy

791
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 3: by then and in a couple of weeks from now.

792
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:03,880
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think Jerry Delvey nailed it. You know,

793
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 3: after the season now he said that their most vulnerable

794
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,360
Speaker 3: right now. You don't want to face this team a

795
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 3: month from now. They're gonna only get stronger, they only

796
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:14,920
Speaker 3: get healthier, they only get better. So yeah, I wouldn't

797
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,879
Speaker 3: worry too too much if if, if you're leveraged on

798
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 3: the Lakers, I still think they're very much live if

799
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 3: they win Game six.

800
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 1: I will say this.

801
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:26,319
Speaker 6: I thought it was interesting and I may have.

802
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:30,799
Speaker 5: Already added to my again very diverse and overhedged portfolio

803
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 5: that the Suns are plus five fifty to win the

804
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 5: West over at MGM. That's compared to Jazz at plus

805
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 5: one seventy five, Clippers at plus two ninety despite their

806
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:44,120
Speaker 5: high jinks in this Maverick series, and Lakers plus four fifty.

807
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 5: The Suns are still plus five fifty And I get that.

808
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:49,760
Speaker 5: They so again though, like, look look at this fanly,

809
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:54,720
Speaker 5: We've got the Suns as in this series minus three fifty,

810
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 5: but to win the West are plus five point fifty,

811
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:02,279
Speaker 5: which is longer than the Lakers, who they're significant favorites over,

812
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 5: and we know that the Lakers are the toughest team

813
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 5: that they're gonna face. Like on some level, that plus

814
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 5: five to fifty number is to me pretty tasty. I

815
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 5: like the way the Suns match up with Utah. The Clippers,

816
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 5: I think, are a different beast, and we saw that

817
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 5: in the regular season. It's a tougher matchup. But I

818
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,360
Speaker 5: also don't think that you can just take.

819
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 6: Like we're well.

820
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 5: We've talked about this before that it's not about the

821
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 5: regular season matchups in the win lost column. It's about

822
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 5: how do those games play out, what the matchups look like.

823
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:35,560
Speaker 5: Who didn't look like they could hang, who didn't look

824
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 5: like they could play? And I feel like while the

825
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,879
Speaker 5: Clippers have been much better in these last two games,

826
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:44,000
Speaker 5: the Maverick series does show look they're not.

827
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 1: They are not like this.

828
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 5: Well honed beast of a team. The Clippers are inconsistent,

829
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:53,399
Speaker 5: they're vulnerable, they can get shook, all of these things.

830
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 5: I think it's impressive that they're digging out of it.

831
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:57,960
Speaker 5: This is the first real adversity we've seen them respond to.

832
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 5: But they're also doing it versus the freak Mavericks in

833
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:03,920
Speaker 5: the first round. So that Suns plus five fifty number,

834
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 5: I keep looking at that and being like that number

835
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:06,759
Speaker 5: doesn't make sense.

836
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the Suns are continually being disrespected. I

837
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 3: said this on the Heat Check show. They were plus

838
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 3: eight hundred before Game five that they want so down

839
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 3: to that number. I have them at plus three sixty

840
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 3: seven on my personal model, So I think that five

841
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 3: point fifty is just a banger. This team just continues

842
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 3: to get disrespected, and they obviously have the added equity

843
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 3: of not having to face the Clippers or the Jazz

844
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 3: next round they face the Nuggets or the Blazers, and

845
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 3: they you know, and that's a much easier, much more

846
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 3: favorable draw for them. So yeah, I mean this Suns team,

847
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:42,719
Speaker 3: man from I think their only hole is backup center.

848
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:44,959
Speaker 3: That's that's just an egregious hole they need to figure

849
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:48,239
Speaker 3: out with either Frank Comminsk or Darius Sarvich. But otherwise,

850
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:52,759
Speaker 3: like that starting lineup is just elite defensively with Jake

851
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 3: Crowder in there now, and Cameron Payne, former tank commander

852
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:58,799
Speaker 3: Cameron Payne has been excellent off the bench. I mean

853
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 3: they just think think they're continually being disrespected.

854
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 4: Man.

855
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 3: I said it yesterday before Game five, I thought they

856
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 3: were the best value to win the West on the

857
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:09,920
Speaker 3: board at plus eight hundred. I'll say it again. They're

858
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 3: the best value to win the West at plus five

859
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 3: point fifty right now.

860
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 1: Yeah.

861
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:18,360
Speaker 5: And it's the Kaminski thing I think is interesting in

862
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 5: terms of Sarich has been just that his on off

863
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:23,040
Speaker 5: numbers are horrendous in the series, and you can just

864
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 5: tell like I actually was like, all right, I kind

865
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 5: of want to see it like hou Sarch would do

866
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 5: in the small ball units. The answer answer is nope,

867
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 5: that's not viable. The Lakers are destroying them in those minutes.

868
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:36,319
Speaker 5: But I think it's different when you throw in. I

869
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:37,879
Speaker 5: do think it's different when you throw it in versus

870
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 5: the Clippers with Zubach, like the Lakers will happily give

871
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 5: the ball to Drummond on lobs or on little little

872
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 5: passes for dunks and dunkin cuts. As well as you've

873
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:49,640
Speaker 5: got the eighty bit dual big combo, you got to

874
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 5: have two bigs on the floor the Clippers, you can

875
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:54,959
Speaker 5: bait them in the small ball, Like we're already seeing

876
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 5: the Mavericks that you've successfully done it and it's working

877
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:59,000
Speaker 5: for the Clippers, Like that's the adjustment that.

878
00:40:58,920 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 6: They need to make.

879
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 5: But if you can bait them with Sarrich into playing

880
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 5: small ball, I think you're pretty happy with that. Like

881
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 5: you'll take Sarrich on on Morris all day long. You're

882
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 5: fine with that. And so you know, some of those

883
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:14,160
Speaker 5: matchup advantages that look so bad in this series for

884
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 5: the Suns, And like I'll say this, I did not

885
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:18,320
Speaker 5: think that the matchup was that bad for Phoenix. Like

886
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 5: I asked that on Twitter before the series started the

887
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:22,920
Speaker 5: friday before the playoffs began, I was like, look, the

888
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 5: Lakers will probably win because they're the Lakers, But like,

889
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 5: I don't see. I think I had more faith in

890
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 5: Ayton than a lot of people that I think people

891
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:33,600
Speaker 5: really thought that Ayton was just going to get like annihilated.

892
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 5: And I was like, look, I don't like Ayton in space.

893
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 5: I don't like Ayton versus Joker, right versus a really

894
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:43,719
Speaker 5: savvy crafty guy, but versus like eight shooting turnaround fadeaways

895
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 5: and Drummond Okay, and the Lakers are still winning those minutes,

896
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,720
Speaker 5: mostly because, like Lebron James is still an incredible basketball player,

897
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:53,600
Speaker 5: but Ayden has done enough to have it not be

898
00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 5: this huge negative. So they've been able to win these games.

899
00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 6: So those are fun.

900
00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:02,359
Speaker 3: Think that mitigates the the backup center dilemma, will say

901
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 3: is that Aiding's really stepped up in terms of the

902
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,400
Speaker 3: minutes workload he's taken on. He's been playing forty plus

903
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 3: on these games, man, so you're only having to rely

904
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 3: having to put Dario Sarach or Frank Kaminski out there

905
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 3: for like eight minutes at a time. We didn't see

906
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:16,719
Speaker 3: that type of minute ceiling from eight and in the

907
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 3: regular season. Man Like, for him to be able to

908
00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:23,239
Speaker 3: take on thirty eight forty one minutes consistently night a

909
00:42:23,360 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 3: night out against a tough matchup, tough Lakers into your defense,

910
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:31,239
Speaker 3: I think is super impressive. And obviously yeah, I mean,

911
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 3: I'll say it again, I think this team continues to

912
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 3: be disrespected.

913
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:37,280
Speaker 6: Let's go real quickly.

914
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:41,359
Speaker 5: On the Friday's episode of the show, Rinnan, Palmer, Brand

915
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:43,800
Speaker 5: Anderson and I are going to go probably most of

916
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 5: the episode on Bucks Nets. I will go ahead and

917
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 5: put this towards you justin one reason I'm not betting

918
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:54,840
Speaker 5: title futures anymore on Western Conference teams. I'm only betting

919
00:42:55,600 --> 00:43:00,280
Speaker 5: conference odds on Western teams or series prices is because

920
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:02,759
Speaker 5: I think whoever wins Bucks Nets is going to be

921
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:05,440
Speaker 5: the NBA champion. I think this is the NBA Finals.

922
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:08,799
Speaker 5: I know that's a pretty narrativey take for you, but

923
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 5: I want to get your thoughts in terms of the

924
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 5: importance on future prices going down the line, especially we're

925
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:19,360
Speaker 5: recording this on Wednesday afternoon. Joel Embiid has a slight

926
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:22,320
Speaker 5: tear of the meniscus. He's going to continue to play

927
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 5: is day to day. One of the problems I've read

928
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:29,400
Speaker 5: is that there's swelling involved that can basically mean he

929
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:32,279
Speaker 5: might play Game one and then this game two. The

930
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 5: schedules not really forgiving the rest of the way, even

931
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:36,319
Speaker 5: the finals don't have a lot of rest built in

932
00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:41,319
Speaker 5: in between. But specifically with Bucks Nets, I think this

933
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 5: is probably the real crux of the playoffs going into

934
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 5: the series.

935
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 3: I think that's a correct take. You just look at

936
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 3: the paths of the Bucks and the Nats versus any

937
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:59,319
Speaker 3: other Western conference counterparts. They're dramatically different, especially with this

938
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 3: Joel and b injury factored in. I have the sixers

939
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 3: have them I think at like twelve thirteen percent to

940
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 3: win the title. The down a five point six percent

941
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:10,880
Speaker 3: now in the model. It's just a huge blow. I

942
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:12,680
Speaker 3: don't know what they're gonna do. I think they might

943
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 3: start Ben Simmons at the five today, maybe start George Hill.

944
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:18,760
Speaker 3: I don't think they're the solution is playing Mike Scott

945
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:21,480
Speaker 3: or or Dwight Howard there starting starting eye of those two.

946
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:24,440
Speaker 3: We'll see, we'll see what happens. But the point stands.

947
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:30,120
Speaker 3: I think Bucks nets huge stakes at you know, basically

948
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:32,839
Speaker 3: what we're seeing right now with the series prices. I

949
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 3: just want to, you know, touch on that a little bit.

950
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 3: Uh nets minus two hundred at a lot of places.

951
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:38,680
Speaker 4: I have it.

952
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 3: Personally around minus one fifty five minus one sixty. So

953
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:44,919
Speaker 3: I think the touchover price. I want to talk about

954
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 3: this match a little bit. Definitely interesting on both sides.

955
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:52,360
Speaker 3: So the Bucks side, the Dante DiVincenzo injury obviously is

956
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:55,959
Speaker 3: really big. You know, we didn't really see that take

957
00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 3: effect in that first round because Brent Forbes was just

958
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:01,760
Speaker 3: shooting flame throwers and out scoring Jimmy Butler in that series.

959
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:06,799
Speaker 3: But assuming his shooting normalizes, that's problematic when you have

960
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:12,360
Speaker 3: Britain Forbes and Pat Conington playing important minutes against this

961
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 3: Nets offense. Right, I think having PJ. Tucker there is

962
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 3: big for them. I hope they lean on him heavily.

963
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:21,920
Speaker 3: I hope he plays, you know, twenty to thirty minutes

964
00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:24,880
Speaker 3: in this one. I think that's the correct adjustment for

965
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 3: Devincendo's absence on the net side. What happens with their

966
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 3: center position? So DeAndre Jordan didn't play much of a

967
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:35,880
Speaker 3: role of any in that first round series. Does he

968
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:39,840
Speaker 3: start now to match up against Giannis? What short of

969
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:41,920
Speaker 3: rim protection are they going to have in this in

970
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:45,359
Speaker 3: this spot? You know? So, Yeah, a lot of questions there.

971
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:47,480
Speaker 3: I just I covered a bunch of things. We can

972
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 3: parse some of them. Of those things, I kind of

973
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 3: talked about what stands out to you most in the

974
00:45:54,000 --> 00:45:54,720
Speaker 3: in this matchup?

975
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:57,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, So the center center thing has been one thing

976
00:45:57,719 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 5: I've been thinking about a lot of the evidence pointed

977
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:04,399
Speaker 5: to the nets attempt to switch with Claxton didn't work

978
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:05,320
Speaker 5: in the regular season.

979
00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:06,480
Speaker 6: Jannis ate him alive.

980
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 5: You can say like added help. You know they'll figure

981
00:46:09,960 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 5: out schemes and counter them as a series goes on.

982
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 1: I will say this, it does. There is an adjustment period.

983
00:46:14,719 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 5: Even you go back to Toronto and Miami too, Like

984
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 5: Miami played them all this year because they had the

985
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:22,239
Speaker 5: same model from last year. There does tend to be

986
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:24,280
Speaker 5: about a game to game and a half adjustment period

987
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:27,920
Speaker 5: for you to get used to Jannie's size, speed, athleticism

988
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:29,239
Speaker 5: and aggressiveness.

989
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 6: Going to the rim.

990
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:31,920
Speaker 1: You can you get better at it.

991
00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 5: As you get better at all things over the course

992
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 5: of a series, you don't get worse at those adjustments.

993
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:40,480
Speaker 5: But look, Blake Griffin doesn't seem like the answer, Jordan.

994
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 5: I think the problem is the Bucks showed in that

995
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:47,520
Speaker 5: Heat series that they are willing to be like, all right,

996
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 5: if you want to go that route, we're just gonna

997
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:52,919
Speaker 5: run Drew Holiday pick and roll with Giannis, We're gonna

998
00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:55,400
Speaker 5: run Drew Holiday, pick and roll with Brook Lopez.

999
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 6: We're gonna run.

1000
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,040
Speaker 5: We're gonna run Chris Middleton pick and roll. We're gonna

1001
00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:01,640
Speaker 5: hit you with all these differently. They showed as much

1002
00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:03,840
Speaker 5: as the defensive versatility was a big question that we

1003
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:06,319
Speaker 5: had about going into the series. For the Bucks, they

1004
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 5: showed as much offensive versatility. It's not just Giannis is

1005
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:11,880
Speaker 5: going to isolate at thirty feet and then try and

1006
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 5: get ahead of Steam going to the rim in then

1007
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,879
Speaker 5: pass and pick up a charge. They varied things up,

1008
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:20,200
Speaker 5: and even without DiVincenzo, they have enough replacement shooters to

1009
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:20,880
Speaker 5: be able.

1010
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:21,359
Speaker 6: To go with that.

1011
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 5: And the response will be like, yeah, but you can't

1012
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 5: play you know, Bryn Forbes. They can play Brin Forbes.

1013
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:27,359
Speaker 5: I think as much as the Nets can play Joe Harris.

1014
00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:28,279
Speaker 5: Joe Harris is better.

1015
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:31,920
Speaker 6: He's a better defender, he's a better shooter even than Forbes.

1016
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:34,839
Speaker 5: He's a better player. But it's not like you can't

1017
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 5: hide Forbes. You can hide Forbes to the degree that

1018
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:37,920
Speaker 5: you can hide Joe.

1019
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:41,800
Speaker 3: Harky man, I think hiding for I mean Joe Harris

1020
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 3: is such an elite shooter and much more than that.

1021
00:47:46,000 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 3: I think hiding is a strong word that down plays

1022
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:52,480
Speaker 3: how much Harris can can kill a guy like Forbes

1023
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:53,120
Speaker 3: in this series.

1024
00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:54,360
Speaker 1: I agree.

1025
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:55,800
Speaker 5: But the other thing is, I think they're going to

1026
00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 5: switch everything. I think the Bucks are going to switch everything.

1027
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 5: I think I think probably by game three, you're probably

1028
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:03,959
Speaker 5: gonna see less Brook Lopez and more PJ.

1029
00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:04,360
Speaker 6: Tucker.

1030
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 5: Now I thought that in gain in this in the

1031
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:08,520
Speaker 5: first series, but so much of Brook Lopez's ability to

1032
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:12,279
Speaker 5: stay on the floor was dictated by Bam out of

1033
00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:17,799
Speaker 5: Bio's brain going into another dimension, like just if you're

1034
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 5: not gonna look at the rim, then you're gonna let

1035
00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 5: Lopez pull that that deep drop on you all day.

1036
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:26,040
Speaker 3: I mean it was you didn't have Dwayne Dedman out

1037
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 3: playing Bam Menebayo in the first round, not.

1038
00:48:28,800 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 6: On my Bingo prop card.

1039
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:34,399
Speaker 5: So I think that by you know, game three, we're

1040
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:36,319
Speaker 5: probably gonna see a lot more at Tucker, whether he

1041
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:37,800
Speaker 5: starts or not or whatever.

1042
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 1: That's the end.

1043
00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:39,319
Speaker 6: See here's that.

1044
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:40,960
Speaker 5: That's why the chess match is so interesting in this.

1045
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 5: If you start DeAndre Jordan, the Bucks are thrilled because

1046
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:47,840
Speaker 5: they're like, we could play Brook, then we want to

1047
00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:51,400
Speaker 5: play Brook, Like we'll take Brook Lopez versus DeAndre Jordan

1048
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 5: all day, Like thank you, thank you so much for

1049
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:57,920
Speaker 5: giving us rim protection. I wonder if they're gonna wind

1050
00:48:57,960 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 5: up like I think Tucker can play a big role

1051
00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:01,920
Speaker 5: in the series because they're just gonna switch everything. One

1052
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:03,760
Speaker 5: of the Evan One of the advantage is a switch.

1053
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 5: You can slip it, right, you can slip it, but

1054
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:09,680
Speaker 5: Jordan's not as mobile as he used to be, so

1055
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 5: slipping isn't as dangerous. There's more time for them to

1056
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 5: make the rotation over. And that's the real counter to switch,

1057
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:17,439
Speaker 5: is just slipping everything. Otherwise it's isoball, which the nets

1058
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:19,359
Speaker 5: are comfortable with, but so are the bucks. The Bucks

1059
00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:21,640
Speaker 5: are like, look, we're gonna defend you straight up. And

1060
00:49:21,680 --> 00:49:25,319
Speaker 5: if you if you put up eighty points on forty shots, good,

1061
00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:26,919
Speaker 5: you know, congratulations, good job.

1062
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:28,840
Speaker 1: I think.

1063
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:34,160
Speaker 5: The switch also allows for them to tell, Forbes, don't

1064
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:38,400
Speaker 5: ball watch like, just stay attached, and that's.

1065
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:40,719
Speaker 3: Don't do don't do what you've been used to doing. Yeah,

1066
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:42,640
Speaker 3: for your career.

1067
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:44,279
Speaker 1: And that and that's hard to do, right.

1068
00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:47,239
Speaker 5: But it's also like, maybe it's not forest, maybe it's connotant,

1069
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:50,080
Speaker 5: like maybe that's maybe that's like the move. And then

1070
00:49:50,120 --> 00:49:51,879
Speaker 5: also here's what's actually interesting. I think about that first

1071
00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:54,879
Speaker 5: round series with Miami ports played well enough. Port has

1072
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:58,800
Speaker 5: surprisingly played so well, and again Miami just really imploded.

1073
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 5: But if Portis can play well enough to play some

1074
00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:05,960
Speaker 5: rotations with Claxton, that gets you that buys you some minutes, right, Like,

1075
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:07,120
Speaker 5: if you're just like, oh, we're gonna give you a

1076
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:09,920
Speaker 5: different look. And then if you're gonna switch everything, then

1077
00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:12,280
Speaker 5: we're gonna get Portis on a smaller defender, and Portis

1078
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:14,759
Speaker 5: is just gonna hit lit little pull up jumpers over Kyrie.

1079
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:17,919
Speaker 1: All day long, like the Nets.

1080
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:19,960
Speaker 5: The best way I can kind of think to describe

1081
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:22,560
Speaker 5: this is, while the Nets have a more complicated offense

1082
00:50:22,600 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 5: than what people give them credit for, this really is like, ironically,

1083
00:50:28,239 --> 00:50:30,319
Speaker 5: last year, the Bucks offense, last two seasons, the Bucks

1084
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 5: offense was just like a blunt force instrument.

1085
00:50:32,239 --> 00:50:34,080
Speaker 6: All Right, we're gonna we're gonna hit you.

1086
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:37,160
Speaker 5: With the honest, be honest, we're gonna size athleticism, figure

1087
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:38,719
Speaker 5: out an answer for it. And then if you if

1088
00:50:38,719 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 5: you bring help, which you have to because he's so big,

1089
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:43,600
Speaker 5: we're gonna pass for three. The Bucks are actually a

1090
00:50:43,640 --> 00:50:46,120
Speaker 5: little bit more nuanced and developed, and the Nets are

1091
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 5: very much just like, no man, We've got Katie Kyrie

1092
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 5: and James Harden, so we're just gonna go to work

1093
00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:53,520
Speaker 5: and you can't do anything against us. I think the

1094
00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:56,400
Speaker 5: real question for me is, like, who does Drew guard that?

1095
00:50:56,400 --> 00:50:56,480
Speaker 3: That?

1096
00:50:56,640 --> 00:50:58,439
Speaker 5: To me is like who's the initial because they're gonna

1097
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 5: want to iso a fair amount, and if you whoever

1098
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 5: you put Drew on, I will say, like, those guys

1099
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:05,280
Speaker 5: will probably disengage a little bit. They have enough respect

1100
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 5: for Drew that Harden will try and test him, but

1101
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:12,560
Speaker 5: they will know like this is not a high evy

1102
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:14,759
Speaker 5: situation for us, and they'll go to whoever the other

1103
00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:15,239
Speaker 5: guy is.

1104
00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 3: So I kind of feel like they know they have

1105
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:21,279
Speaker 3: they know they have two other guys to take on

1106
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:25,239
Speaker 3: the offensive burdens, so they're not going to be enthusiastic

1107
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:27,560
Speaker 3: by jumping on that matter for sure, right, So, like

1108
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:30,160
Speaker 3: I feel like the best tactic, honestly is to put

1109
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:34,840
Speaker 3: Drew on Harden, switch everything versus Kadi, and then just

1110
00:51:34,880 --> 00:51:38,040
Speaker 3: be like, Kyrie's gonna average forty points in this series.

1111
00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:40,719
Speaker 5: But we're trying to get Katie at twenty five and

1112
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:43,520
Speaker 5: Harden at twenty and then trying to limit Joe Harris

1113
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:47,680
Speaker 5: and Landry Shammit and Bruce Brown all those other guys.

1114
00:51:47,680 --> 00:51:51,040
Speaker 5: We're trying to limit all those dudes' production. And like

1115
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:52,759
Speaker 5: that's that to me? When I think about that in

1116
00:51:52,760 --> 00:51:54,960
Speaker 5: my head, I'm like, that's a sustainable model, Like I

1117
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:56,720
Speaker 5: think that that that can work.

1118
00:51:57,480 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 3: One one more sneeze storyline, and this is the health

1119
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:04,160
Speaker 3: of Jeff Green. I cannot emphasize how important he is

1120
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:07,240
Speaker 3: to this team, just with this uncertainty at the center position,

1121
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:10,040
Speaker 3: he doesn't look like he's making enough progress to at

1122
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:12,719
Speaker 3: least be healthy healthy. I would be very surprised piece

1123
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:15,439
Speaker 3: healthy for game one. We'll see game two, game three,

1124
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 3: but him getting back, he was in their closing lineup.

1125
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:20,759
Speaker 3: They closed with him instead of Blake Griffin when he

1126
00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:21,240
Speaker 3: was healthy.

1127
00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:21,440
Speaker 4: Right.

1128
00:52:21,520 --> 00:52:25,200
Speaker 3: So he's just a huge piece, a veteran piece that's

1129
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:28,760
Speaker 3: been in these big moments that I think extremely helpful

1130
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:31,200
Speaker 3: for for this Nett team. If they're able to get

1131
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:33,840
Speaker 3: him back for I don't know by game three, that

1132
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:35,359
Speaker 3: would be big for them.

1133
00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:37,440
Speaker 5: You want to shop around, you can do that using

1134
00:52:37,480 --> 00:52:40,440
Speaker 5: the Action Network app or go to Action Network dot com,

1135
00:52:40,480 --> 00:52:43,560
Speaker 5: slash NBA slash futures. You'll be able to find series

1136
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 5: price and compare them and get a sense for where

1137
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:48,560
Speaker 5: you can get the best value. And like, this matters

1138
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 5: a lot because there are certain books that are going

1139
00:52:51,880 --> 00:52:54,080
Speaker 5: to come in a lot shorter, They're gonna be closer

1140
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 5: to Justin's model, right, Like we know that there are

1141
00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:59,880
Speaker 5: a lot of those books you mentioned that Fandal and DraftKings.

1142
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:02,880
Speaker 5: There's also like when bet MGM comes out, I'm betting.

1143
00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:04,879
Speaker 5: If you want to bet the nets, then I think

1144
00:53:04,880 --> 00:53:06,480
Speaker 5: bet MGM is going to be a good book for you.

1145
00:53:06,520 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 5: They're likely, i think, to come in shorter on the

1146
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:11,919
Speaker 5: nets maybe than some of the other ones Points bet.

1147
00:53:11,960 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 5: On the other hand, it has bucks. If you're looking

1148
00:53:13,600 --> 00:53:16,160
Speaker 5: for bucks, bucks are plus one eighty five at points bet,

1149
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:18,399
Speaker 5: like they'll take your bucks. They'll they'll take that bucks

1150
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:20,359
Speaker 5: money over there points Bet. So you have like these

1151
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:24,200
Speaker 5: different opportunities to find the best price. You're gonna want

1152
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:26,960
Speaker 5: to do that, even though obviously you get great prices

1153
00:53:27,000 --> 00:53:29,960
Speaker 5: at bet mgm, the official as provider of the Action Network.

1154
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:34,000
Speaker 3: So let's close this out. Okay, how are we approaching

1155
00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:36,280
Speaker 3: betting this series in general?

1156
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:37,719
Speaker 4: Right? For me?

1157
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 3: I think I'm looking obviously for value that's obviously dictates everything,

1158
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:47,080
Speaker 3: and I think in terms of value, the nets are

1159
00:53:47,160 --> 00:53:49,840
Speaker 3: generally going to be overpriced for me in this series.

1160
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:55,520
Speaker 3: I think the best approach is probably over on the

1161
00:53:55,560 --> 00:53:58,560
Speaker 3: games five and a half, you know, six and a half.

1162
00:53:58,600 --> 00:54:02,000
Speaker 3: I think this one goes deep. She would my initially

1163
00:54:02,040 --> 00:54:06,960
Speaker 3: and is nets and seven, But so generally I'm looking

1164
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:11,200
Speaker 3: for opportunities to take advantage of that value in the

1165
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:11,759
Speaker 3: box here.

1166
00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:16,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I'll maybe I think looking for series spread

1167
00:54:16,360 --> 00:54:21,040
Speaker 5: like that's probably where I'm gonna be tarting. So this

1168
00:54:21,080 --> 00:54:23,200
Speaker 5: is sometimes where you can't get the best value. You

1169
00:54:23,200 --> 00:54:25,120
Speaker 5: have to like really kind of shop around for it.

1170
00:54:25,200 --> 00:54:28,839
Speaker 5: Like Bucks plus one and a half is minus one

1171
00:54:28,960 --> 00:54:31,239
Speaker 5: thirty four. That's a pretty good price that allows me

1172
00:54:31,320 --> 00:54:34,880
Speaker 5: to cover for the possibility of them winning and covers

1173
00:54:34,920 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 5: for them losing in seven games. I obviously would rather

1174
00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:41,799
Speaker 5: like I'm hoping that I'll say this the early the

1175
00:54:41,920 --> 00:54:45,239
Speaker 5: early field that I'm getting is that the sharps are

1176
00:54:45,280 --> 00:54:50,200
Speaker 5: gonna like the Bucks. Yes, media is gonna like the Bucks.

1177
00:54:50,920 --> 00:54:53,880
Speaker 5: The public's gonna like the nets. Like that's kind of

1178
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:56,200
Speaker 5: my feeling. I'm worried that that's going to counteract, so

1179
00:54:56,200 --> 00:54:57,680
Speaker 5: we're not gonna see as much movement, Like I would

1180
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:00,160
Speaker 5: rather the public just come in and absolutely hammer the

1181
00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:02,280
Speaker 5: nets to the point where some of those other numbers

1182
00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:05,440
Speaker 5: get affected, Like I want to see I want to

1183
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:07,319
Speaker 5: see Bucks plus two and a half at like a

1184
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:09,960
Speaker 5: reasonable number. If I can get Bucks plus two and

1185
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:12,720
Speaker 5: a half at like a reasonable number, But I don't

1186
00:55:12,719 --> 00:55:13,520
Speaker 5: have a lot of confidence.

1187
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:14,120
Speaker 6: I'm going to.

1188
00:55:15,800 --> 00:55:18,560
Speaker 5: You've got one thing that I do think is interesting

1189
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:20,520
Speaker 5: is going to be looking at this from a game

1190
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:25,040
Speaker 5: by game perspective, Like I think that that the Nets

1191
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:26,839
Speaker 5: get I don't think the Nets go to to oh.

1192
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:29,040
Speaker 5: I can't see like I really do think we're gonna

1193
00:55:29,080 --> 00:55:33,080
Speaker 5: probably wind up splitting these first four games. And that

1194
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 5: I think is you don't want to bet that too

1195
00:55:35,160 --> 00:55:37,040
Speaker 5: much in advance, right, because you don't want to be

1196
00:55:37,080 --> 00:55:40,160
Speaker 5: in case we're wrong and the Nets are just like that. Nope,

1197
00:55:40,200 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 5: we have Katie and Gyrie and Harden. I will ask

1198
00:55:44,520 --> 00:55:47,920
Speaker 5: this though the Nets title odds will obviously shorten if

1199
00:55:47,920 --> 00:55:49,799
Speaker 5: they were to go up like two to oh on

1200
00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:52,359
Speaker 5: the Bucks. If the Bucks were to go up to

1201
00:55:52,360 --> 00:55:54,800
Speaker 5: one on the Nets, I'm not sure that they would

1202
00:55:55,120 --> 00:55:57,680
Speaker 5: they would shorten the Bucks title lodds would shorten as much.

1203
00:55:57,840 --> 00:55:59,520
Speaker 5: Is that something that maybe better should look at is

1204
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:01,600
Speaker 5: terms of of like, look, if you get a sense

1205
00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:04,719
Speaker 5: of the series of the Bucks are been the better

1206
00:56:04,760 --> 00:56:07,040
Speaker 5: team through four games or whatever it is, or the

1207
00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:08,920
Speaker 5: Nets are you know, the Bucks have played well, but

1208
00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 5: the Nets are gonna shoot better and they're gonna win

1209
00:56:11,000 --> 00:56:13,279
Speaker 5: the series. Not only can you get value on the price,

1210
00:56:13,320 --> 00:56:15,120
Speaker 5: but if we take that premise that we started with,

1211
00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:18,880
Speaker 5: which is this is the finals, Yeah, yeah, this is

1212
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:20,759
Speaker 5: probably the spot. This is gonna be like the last

1213
00:56:20,800 --> 00:56:22,120
Speaker 5: spot where you might be able to get one of

1214
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:24,880
Speaker 5: the one of these teams at a longer number if

1215
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:26,920
Speaker 5: they're down in the series, but you still think they're.

1216
00:56:26,719 --> 00:56:27,120
Speaker 6: Going to win.

1217
00:56:28,080 --> 00:56:31,640
Speaker 3: No, I completely agree. I think that's the way to

1218
00:56:31,680 --> 00:56:35,160
Speaker 3: look at it. That this this this series holds so much,

1219
00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:39,200
Speaker 3: so much significance for the title odds and the model,

1220
00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:42,120
Speaker 3: just because especially with the Joel and beating injury, and

1221
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:44,680
Speaker 3: it really impacts everything that it's it's gonna be a

1222
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:47,400
Speaker 3: comment out west man, like these round two matters you

1223
00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:50,880
Speaker 3: might get Jazz Clippers and round two those are you know,

1224
00:56:50,960 --> 00:56:54,640
Speaker 3: two of the best, the big favorites in the West

1225
00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:57,640
Speaker 3: right now. So man, we're getting some We're against some

1226
00:56:57,719 --> 00:57:00,560
Speaker 3: big time matchups in round two. I'm looking forward to it.

1227
00:57:00,880 --> 00:57:03,440
Speaker 5: Well not only that, but like, look, I think the

1228
00:57:03,520 --> 00:57:05,880
Speaker 5: Nuggets have outplayed the Blazers in this series over the

1229
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 5: duration of it. I think that they've been the better

1230
00:57:08,239 --> 00:57:10,840
Speaker 5: team despite missing three of their top five guards.

1231
00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:12,120
Speaker 6: I think Portland can still win.

1232
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:14,680
Speaker 5: I'm betting Portland in game I'm gonna bet them on

1233
00:57:14,680 --> 00:57:17,520
Speaker 5: the spread in Game five or Game six. Rather, I

1234
00:57:17,520 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 5: think this goes to seven and then it's anybody's game.

1235
00:57:19,840 --> 00:57:22,200
Speaker 5: But like, look, if the Nuggets get to the second

1236
00:57:22,280 --> 00:57:25,120
Speaker 5: round versus Phoenix, they're not scared of them. And if

1237
00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:29,280
Speaker 5: they get the conference finals versus the Clippers or Jazz,

1238
00:57:29,360 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 5: they're not scared of those teams either, even without Jamal. Like,

1239
00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:35,040
Speaker 5: I don't really understand this, but I'm like looking at

1240
00:57:35,120 --> 00:57:37,240
Speaker 5: this being like, if the Lakers get knocked out, are

1241
00:57:37,240 --> 00:57:39,920
Speaker 5: the Nuggets live to win the Western Conference? Like, I

1242
00:57:39,920 --> 00:57:42,640
Speaker 5: don't think that they will, because missing Jamal is such

1243
00:57:42,680 --> 00:57:45,800
Speaker 5: a big is still a really big problem. And there

1244
00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:49,160
Speaker 5: are just no defenses as truly horrific as Portland's, which

1245
00:57:49,200 --> 00:57:50,760
Speaker 5: is a genuine embarrassment.

1246
00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:57,080
Speaker 3: Lineup defensive efficiency as a disaster. I can't. I can't

1247
00:57:57,080 --> 00:57:59,040
Speaker 3: do it with this backward. I mean they've been they've

1248
00:57:59,040 --> 00:58:03,160
Speaker 3: been squeezing all the basketball that the Posy could out

1249
00:58:03,160 --> 00:58:05,560
Speaker 3: of FACU, Composite, out of Austin Rivers, out of Marcus

1250
00:58:05,560 --> 00:58:09,520
Speaker 3: Howard By. I can't. Man, They're just way too They're

1251
00:58:09,520 --> 00:58:10,480
Speaker 3: way too shorthanded.

1252
00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:12,160
Speaker 1: I know it makes no sense.

1253
00:58:12,240 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 6: I get it. I do have one comparison for you, though.

1254
00:58:15,800 --> 00:58:19,320
Speaker 5: Two thousand and nine, the Orlando Magic lost Jamiir Nelson

1255
00:58:19,440 --> 00:58:21,840
Speaker 5: halfway through the season and had to make their playoff

1256
00:58:21,920 --> 00:58:27,000
Speaker 5: run with rayfer Alston Austin yep and made the finals.

1257
00:58:27,040 --> 00:58:29,560
Speaker 5: So there's a little bit of historical context for you,

1258
00:58:29,600 --> 00:58:31,479
Speaker 5: all right. Make sure to follow Justin Fan on Twitter

1259
00:58:31,560 --> 00:58:33,960
Speaker 5: and check the at Fantasy Labs NBA account for the

1260
00:58:34,080 --> 00:58:36,720
Speaker 5: up to the second news on everything injury related so

1261
00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:39,360
Speaker 5: you can get your bets in in relation to all

1262
00:58:39,400 --> 00:58:41,160
Speaker 5: the lineup changes and everything.

1263
00:58:40,800 --> 00:58:42,920
Speaker 6: Else going forward.

1264
00:58:42,960 --> 00:58:45,280
Speaker 5: Justin will check in with you later as the playoffs

1265
00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:47,280
Speaker 5: progress on the Action Network NBA podcast.

1266
00:58:47,320 --> 00:58:58,240
Speaker 4: Thanks man, Thanks, We're finished. Torture.