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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Joining us now is someone who is very familiar with

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Speaker 2: these types of speeches. Saint Louis FED President James Bullard,

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Speaker 2: who recently was in the media talking about his preference

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Speaker 2: for one hundred basis points of rate cuts this year

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Speaker 2: heading into twenty twenty six. Also a potential contender, I

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Speaker 2: should say to be the next FED chair James Jim,

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Speaker 2: how much are you seeing what we heard from Fedchair

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Speaker 2: j Powell and seeing anything different that you would really

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Speaker 2: say say if you were at that podium.

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Speaker 3: He used the speech to solidify expectations for twenty five

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Speaker 3: basis points in September. I was expecting that anyway markets

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Speaker 3: were expecting that. He leaned into the most recent labor

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Speaker 3: market report, which was very soft, and so I think

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Speaker 3: that's a done deal. He didn't say too much about

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Speaker 3: beyond that, what you want to do with the October

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Speaker 3: meeting or the December meeting. I have set one hundred

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Speaker 3: basis points, you know, going into twenty twenty six. I

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Speaker 3: think you could adjust as you go forward and eventually

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Speaker 3: get a full hundred basis points, but I would go

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Speaker 3: slowly in order to watch the data and then on

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Speaker 3: the framework review. I'm sure much earlier in the year

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Speaker 3: they had targeted that they would have the framework discussion

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Speaker 3: and that they would use the Jackson Hole speech to.

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Speaker 4: Talk about changes to the framework.

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Speaker 3: I thought those were thoughtful, and they were well presented

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Speaker 3: in this speed each and they're about what many.

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Speaker 4: Have speculated on.

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Speaker 3: So I think they did about as much as they

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Speaker 3: can on the framework side.

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Speaker 5: Jim Bowler, Tom keenan good morning to you. I definitely

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Speaker 5: consider this my conversation of the day. You served a

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Speaker 5: lengthy term at the Saint Louis FED. You have lived

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Speaker 5: the decline of a greater economy decades and decades ago

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Speaker 5: in the effort to provide for a resurgence Saint Louis

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Speaker 5: is a next chairman of the FED, whoever that may be.

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Speaker 5: Do they have to manage for two American economies, a

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Speaker 5: technology driven exceptional economy and another, to use a cliche,

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Speaker 5: America flat on their back? How would a chairman execute

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Speaker 5: those two Americas.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think in commonwealth distributsha have become more salient

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Speaker 3: topics for the FED.

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Speaker 4: Is not that clear how much the FED can really do.

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Speaker 3: Providing interest rate Paul, for the whole economy of if

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Speaker 3: you change the rate structure, that affects everyone, not just one.

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Speaker 4: Particular group that you might be targeting.

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Speaker 3: So I think that's been something we've had to wrestle with,

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Speaker 3: and I've actually done research on it myself to try

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Speaker 3: to understand it better from my point of view.

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Speaker 4: So I think there's been been a theme.

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Speaker 3: For a while, and that'll be an important theme in

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Speaker 3: Macreconowics going forward.

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Speaker 5: Mike McKee's got a lot of smarter questions than me

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Speaker 5: on the immediacy of this speech. I'm going to ask

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Speaker 5: one more distant question, Jim Bollard. You're at Purdue executing

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Speaker 5: online technology education every single day. How do you define

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Speaker 5: the new technology productivity that America faces?

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Speaker 6: Is it enough to save us?

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Speaker 5: Is it enough to really add on to our present

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Speaker 5: gdp Oh.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that the AI boom is.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's a general purpose technology that will diffuse

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Speaker 3: through the economy. I think the key question is how

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Speaker 3: fast does that actually diffuse? And sometimes marcus can get

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Speaker 3: ahead of themselves and think it's going to happen sooner.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes they're too late and it happens faster than markets think.

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Speaker 3: But nevertheless, anyway you look at it, it's an important technology.

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Speaker 4: It can drive productivity and.

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Speaker 3: I think in higher education is one of the places

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Speaker 3: where you can really have the biggest impact. We put

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Speaker 3: a AI requirement in at the Danniel School here for

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Speaker 3: every single student, and we're trying to expand that to

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Speaker 3: all produce. So I think that just shows you how

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Speaker 3: important this technology is.

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Speaker 6: Jim, it's Mike McKee.

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Speaker 7: I have a question about sort of the process involved

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Speaker 7: in this speech. The chairman is giving his own speech,

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Speaker 7: but basically when he says it's time to maybe adjust policy,

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Speaker 7: he's speaking for the entire open market. Can going into

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Speaker 7: a speech like this, would he have polled everybody? Does

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Speaker 7: he think he has the votes for that? Because we've

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Speaker 7: been speaking with FED officials here in Jackson Hall and

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Speaker 7: there's still some who were saying, well, we're not sure

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Speaker 7: that we need to do that yet.

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Speaker 3: Now he's going to report on the center of gravity

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Speaker 3: of the committee, even though there might be people that

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Speaker 3: have misgivings. At the June meeting, the committee had a

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Speaker 3: median dot dot plot of two rate reductions by the

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Speaker 3: end of the year, and I think the minutes, you know,

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Speaker 3: suggested something that was more like fifty to fifty.

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Speaker 4: But then the labor market report came in.

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Speaker 3: I think that tilted the balance, so he could have

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Speaker 3: he could have pushed back a little bit. I think

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Speaker 3: financial markets were expecting him to come be a little

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Speaker 3: bit more hawkish here and try to set up a

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Speaker 3: fifty to fifty meeting where you would wait and see

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Speaker 3: for the rest of the data to come in. But

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Speaker 3: I don't think that's where the center of gravity is

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Speaker 3: on the committee, so so.

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Speaker 4: He went ahead and leaned in.

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Speaker 3: I thought there was quite a bit of talk about

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Speaker 3: the labor market at the at the beginning. You know,

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Speaker 3: you could have could have been a little more, uh,

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Speaker 3: you know, a little more emphasis on the low unemployment rate,

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Speaker 3: for instance. And you know, he did come out at

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Speaker 3: the end of that discussion saying, well, it's in balance,

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Speaker 3: but we're a little bit nervous. So I think, you know,

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Speaker 3: I think he's accurately uh describing where the bulk of

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Speaker 3: the committee is.

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Speaker 7: Well where would you be on this question, because we've

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Speaker 7: heard FED officials for some time now saying, yes, we

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Speaker 7: had poor job creation in recent months, but the unemployment rate,

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Speaker 7: as you just mentioned, has been low, and they've described

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Speaker 7: the labor market as solid. Now, this seems to be

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Speaker 7: sort of a major shift in the way they view

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Speaker 7: the outlook and the sort of balance between the two mandates.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, what he did at the end of that discussion,

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Speaker 3: he said, well, it's in balance.

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Speaker 4: But I think the committee's nervous.

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Speaker 3: I think it has been slowing, and I think the

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Speaker 3: policy rate is moderately restrictive. Is maybe you know, one

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Speaker 3: hundred and twenty five basis points above the neutral rate.

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Speaker 3: Is that really where you want to be in this circumstance.

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Speaker 3: I think the answers no, So you can come down

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Speaker 3: some and still have moderately restrictive monetary policy that puts

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Speaker 3: gentle downward pressure on inflation. And then the other thing

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Speaker 3: I think has happened is that this argument from Chris

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Speaker 3: Waller and others on the committee that the you know,

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Speaker 3: you should look through the one time increase in goods

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Speaker 3: prices coming from tariffs.

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Speaker 4: I think that's carrying the day.

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Speaker 3: And you know, then he emphasized that inflation expectations remain

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Speaker 3: anchored and so on, and so I think that sets

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Speaker 3: up a modest move downward in September.

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Speaker 2: Jim, We've been talking with you for years and you

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Speaker 2: are very focused on the discipline of economics. Right now,

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Speaker 2: I'm looking at the headlines that are crossing from the

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Speaker 2: past hour. The top one, of course, is a Jerome

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Speaker 2: Powell fedchair saying that shifting risks may warrant adjusting rates.

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Speaker 2: The second one is that Trump says that hell fire

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Speaker 2: the Fed's Lisa's cook if she doesn't resign as someone

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Speaker 2: who is thought to be a contender to become the

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Speaker 2: next FED chair. Jim, how much does it concern you

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Speaker 2: that there's this increasing political noise around the seat and

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Speaker 2: exactly what the path of policy forward looks like.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I want to see due process around something like this.

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Speaker 3: I want to see you know, you can make charges

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Speaker 3: against anybody about anything, I guess, and you know the

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Speaker 3: person can answer the charges and the dojke and decide

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Speaker 3: what they want to do and so on.

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Speaker 4: So I think this has, you know, should.

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Speaker 3: Have longer to play out before you took that step.

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Speaker 3: Otherwise it's just is kind of the wild West, and

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Speaker 3: she can get reinstate later, I guess, or something if

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Speaker 3: there wasn't a conviction.

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Speaker 4: So seems messy to me.

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Speaker 3: I think these kinds of these kinds of charges are

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Speaker 3: made from time to time against various officials around Washington,

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Speaker 3: but I'd.

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Speaker 4: Like to see due process there.

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Speaker 2: Jim, there's another question here, and aside from Governor Cook

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Speaker 2: and what happens there, about how the perception of political

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Speaker 2: interference handles the market reaction to Fed policy. There is

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Speaker 2: this perception that that could cause the dollar a week

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Speaker 2: in more because there is more of an emphasis on

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Speaker 2: supporting growth and supporting the label market than containing inflation.

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Speaker 2: And some people are worried that if the Fed does

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Speaker 2: cut by fifty seventy five one hundred basis points, as

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Speaker 2: you were talking about this past week, that you could

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Speaker 2: see a move up in long end yields akin to

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Speaker 2: what we saw last year. If you are on the

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Speaker 2: FED currently and you did see yields along the long

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Speaker 2: end moving up in response to near term FED rate cuts,

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Speaker 2: what would you do?

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Speaker 4: Definitely be a concern.

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Speaker 3: And that's the tricky part of this business, is that

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Speaker 3: you know, you think you're pursuing a dubbish policy at

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Speaker 3: the short end, but the long end goes up because

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Speaker 3: in place and expectations start to rise, markets start to

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Speaker 3: lose confidence in the FED and the credibility of the FED,

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Speaker 3: and that can go very very badly and unfortunately fairly quickly.

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Speaker 3: So I think you do have to be come You

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Speaker 3: do have to be careful here. But I'm saying that

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Speaker 3: I think that committee has room to maneuver if they

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Speaker 3: proceed carefully over the remainder of twenty five and the

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Speaker 3: first half of twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 5: I don't want to get out front of the debate

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Speaker 5: here the moment, Jim Bullard, But what I would say

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Speaker 5: to Chairman Bullard and Mike.

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Speaker 6: McKee, I got to turn to you.

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Speaker 5: You and I used to sit and look at the

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Speaker 5: dots and go which one is Bullard?

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Speaker 6: I mean, you and I do.

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Speaker 7: It's fairly easy after a while to figure out.

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Speaker 5: I've Chairman Bullard, is your first act if you take

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Speaker 5: over the FED as your act to get rid.

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Speaker 6: Of the dots?

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I've threatened to well, ex President, I threatened to withdraw

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Speaker 3: from the dot plot. I think this could be done better.

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Speaker 3: This was discussed at the Framework conference and former chair

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Speaker 3: of Bernanke gave a very nice presentation and talk about

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Speaker 3: a quarterly monetary policy report, get more organized about it,

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Speaker 3: put out a forecast.

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Speaker 4: I think all of that could be done.

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Speaker 3: I've advocated that for a long time, and so I

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Speaker 3: think that would sort of clear up some of the

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Speaker 3: misconceptions around the dot plot.

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Speaker 6: Okay, this is really really important, Folcus.

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Speaker 5: Jim Bullard made he can history i'd say, a decade ago,

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Speaker 5: with a small, short paper forceful on regime change. How

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Speaker 5: do we get a new FED away from the guessing

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Speaker 5: and the certitude and the silly parlor game of it,

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Speaker 5: Jim Bullard, with great respect, how do we get to

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Speaker 5: that more disciplined study around the game of the FED

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Speaker 5: and regime change?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think regime switching is a great way to

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Speaker 3: think about the global economy and the US economy and

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Speaker 3: how it operates. There are relatively long periods of time

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Speaker 3: where you might have let's say, slow growth and very

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Speaker 3: low interest rates, and you might switch to another time

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Speaker 3: with faster growth and higher interest rates. I think understanding

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Speaker 3: that and understanding how that affects policy choices is a

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Speaker 3: great thing to study further and talk about further in

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Speaker 3: the years ahead, So you know, I think it's very

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Speaker 3: salient for what the committee does.

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Speaker 2: Jim Bullard, former FED President of the Saint Louis Bank,

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Speaker 2: will be sticking with us.

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Speaker 6: Right now.

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Speaker 2: In markets, you can see a cheering across Wall Street

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Speaker 2: to the opening the door to a potential rate cut

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Speaker 2: next month. Potentially more. You could see equities surging higher

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Speaker 2: across the different of the different indexes, led by some

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Speaker 2: of the more interest rate sensitive sectors. The Russell two thousand.

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Speaker 2: You can see ten year yields down now about six

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Speaker 2: basis points, even more at the front end, down ten

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Speaker 2: basis points. As people look to the prospect of the

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Speaker 2: Fed looking through some of the inflation from tariffs. You

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Speaker 2: could see the dollar markedly weaker one seventeen on the

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Speaker 2: euro dollar cross up on nine tenths of a percent

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Speaker 2: in terms of just the percentage rise up about a

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Speaker 2: basis point. And there's a real question here about what

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Speaker 2: this means going forward. City Wealth Chief Investment Officer Kate

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Speaker 2: Moore is still with us, freezing a little bit because

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Speaker 2: it is a little bit chilly.

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Speaker 4: Here, nippy in the morning.

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Speaker 2: I am curious though about what you're hearing in terms

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Speaker 2: of prospective FED chairs and the politicization of the Federal Reserve.

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Speaker 2: If this is a FED willing to err on the

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Speaker 2: Dubvish side, does that mean something that materially is higher

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Speaker 2: with respect to returns and with respect to risk appetite.

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Speaker 8: Look, markets love certainty and our investors love certainty, and

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Speaker 8: we want a certainty in terms of the process around

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Speaker 8: making monetary policy decisions. So I don't have any insight

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Speaker 8: into who might be named next FED chair, But what

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Speaker 8: I will say is if there is a sense that

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Speaker 8: the process is changing, I think that will lead to

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Speaker 8: some pause and perhaps some volatility in the market. You know,

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Speaker 8: our expectation is that regardless of who takes the next

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Speaker 8: chair and what seats are filled, we'll have a continuous

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Speaker 8: continuation of the process of being data dependent, of being thoughtful,

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Speaker 8: of having great debate and discussion amongst the FED governors

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Speaker 8: and their staff. But if that were to change, I

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Speaker 8: think that would introduce volatility. I think the most important

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Speaker 8: thing for us right now is to recognize that so

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Speaker 8: much of the data is going to be mixed through

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Speaker 8: the back half of the year, and that's going to

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Speaker 8: have a huge impact I think in terms of investor sentiment,

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Speaker 8: and I would suggest even more crowding in some of

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Speaker 8: the favored trades.

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Speaker 7: We tend to get reactions like we're seeing in the

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Speaker 7: market now on a day when news breaks. But I

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Speaker 7: think we're probably going to see extended rally here because

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Speaker 7: people are anticipating great conscience. Does that worry you in

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Speaker 7: terms of a bubble forming or some sort of excess

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Speaker 7: spending that would push up inflation because of inflated asset prices.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, so I have been a little bit worried actually

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Speaker 8: about positioning. I feel like I've been a little bit

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Speaker 8: more cautious frankly than some of my peers on the

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Speaker 8: street and saying, you know, people own the highest quality

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Speaker 8: parts of the market. It's quite crowded. Some of the

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Speaker 8: shorts when we're looking at some of the fast money

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Speaker 8: a community are very similar across the board, and we've

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Speaker 8: seen people kind of shrug off concerns around economic growth

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Speaker 8: or even the technological disruption across a lot of industries.

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Speaker 8: We've seen significant improvements in terms of the earnings or

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Speaker 8: vision ratios, City Economic surprise index has moved up, you know,

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Speaker 8: and all of this together I think sets us up

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Speaker 8: for you know, a little bit of weakness if there

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Speaker 8: was a bad data point, or if there was a

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Speaker 8: bit of a shock where there's a lot of consensus positioning.

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Speaker 2: Well, Jim, Jim Bullard, I'd love to bring you back

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Speaker 2: in here. How much does that concern you that sort

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Speaker 2: of a bias to cut rates could cause asset price

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Speaker 2: inflation to get ahead maybe of where the economy is.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, equities, except for just recently, equities have been doing

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Speaker 3: very well as they've digested the new trade policy of

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Speaker 3: the US and how that's going to play out globally.

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Speaker 4: You've got the AI boom going on, really a driver

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Speaker 4: for the big tech companies, and you know.

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Speaker 3: I do get concerned that things we get ahead of ourselves.

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Speaker 3: Sure it's a great technology and everything, but how fast

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Speaker 3: is it really going to in diffuse into actual productivity

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Speaker 3: in the economy. But overall, I would say, you know,

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Speaker 3: it's possible that we'll get higher productivity growth ahead and

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Speaker 3: really a good outcome for the second half of the

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Speaker 3: twenty twenties here, much as we had in the for

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Speaker 3: the nineteen nineties.

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Speaker 5: Let me talk to the chief investment strategist Purdue University

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Speaker 5: right now. I'm going to do a double barrel question

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Speaker 5: first to doctor Bullard and then to doctor Moore. Jim

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Speaker 5: Bullard as simple as I can all of my conversations

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Speaker 5: rather Jakamnagel, Bundesbank, Kate Moore, City Group and on and on,

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Speaker 5: is about an elevated or persistent nominal GDP.

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Speaker 6: Do you frame out that.

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Speaker 5: We're going to have an animal spirit in the country,

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Speaker 5: whether it's better real growth okay, inflation too much inflation, okay,

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Speaker 5: real growth, But what we're talking about forward is an

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Speaker 5: elevated nominal GDP.

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Speaker 3: If you think real growth is going to be faster

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Speaker 3: than yes, nominal gp growth would be faster even if

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Speaker 3: the Fed hits it's two percent inflation target over that period.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, you would see higher, faster nominal GDP growth.

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Speaker 6: I mean, I look at this, Kate Moore, and it's

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Speaker 6: a higher manner.

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Speaker 5: And I'm really surprised by your comments. I think they're

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Speaker 5: extremely important our back to the US quality, etc.

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Speaker 6: But it sounds like.

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Speaker 5: City Group is modeling out through all the emotion, the fear,

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Speaker 5: the turmoil, the political debate.

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Speaker 6: As we just sign next to the eight foot there

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Speaker 6: in the lobby.

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Speaker 5: The answer here is you're modeling out that will be

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Speaker 5: okay and there'll be a better nominal GDP, it leads

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Speaker 5: into revenue, etc.

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Speaker 8: Look, I think we're going to have an okay growth environment.

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Speaker 8: But one thing we keep on talking about is sort

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Speaker 8: of the ke shape. Right there are the haves and

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Speaker 8: have nots across all the different industries and different consumer groups.

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Speaker 8: And so I don't think that we want to assume

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Speaker 8: that everyone is going to experience strong growth in the

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Speaker 8: second half the year. And we're seeing this, of course

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Speaker 8: in the consumer companies. We're seeing this across you know,

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Speaker 8: segments of different households. We're seeing this even in technology companies,

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Speaker 8: those that have made the investments and are reaping dividends

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Speaker 8: from it. So yes, we may have these good headline numbers,

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Speaker 8: but I think as investors we have to really pay

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Speaker 8: attention to what's going on beneath the surface, and I

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Speaker 8: think there's an opportunity for differentiation over the next couple quarters.

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Speaker 2: We are looking at a market that is moving, We

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Speaker 2: are looking at headlines that are coming. And I want

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Speaker 2: to bring this to you that Canada is planning to

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Speaker 2: remove retaliatory tariffs on many US products in an olive

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Speaker 2: branch to President Trump. And there is this feeling that

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Speaker 2: maybe some of the tariffs are fungible, that we are

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Speaker 2: going to see some of them removed, or US as

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Speaker 2: a negotiating state.

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Speaker 5: I strongly agree with what you're saying. This was sort

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Speaker 5: of out there in the ether last night, but to

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Speaker 5: see these headlines is another example we adjust well.

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Speaker 2: And that's one of the reasons why there has been

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Speaker 2: a focus on the labor market fed chair to ome

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Speaker 2: Powell speaking just moments ago, really focusing on the complications

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Speaker 2: for the labor market overall.

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Speaker 9: While the labor market appears to be in balance, it

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Speaker 9: is a curious kind of balance that results from a

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Speaker 9: marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers.

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Speaker 9: This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising,

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Speaker 9: and if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly

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Speaker 9: in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment.

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Speaker 2: Some people might say that a fetcher J. Powell is

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Speaker 2: coming around to the Chris Waller view of things, that

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Speaker 2: there is this feeling of potentially the weakening and the

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Speaker 2: labor market taking priority over inflation at a time where

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Speaker 2: some of these tariffs are put on taken off, and

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Speaker 2: that's what we're seeing a little bit in terms of

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Speaker 2: negotiation this morning.

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Speaker 5: Well, the given the take and it goes back to

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Speaker 5: Kate Moore's optimism on investment in America and you see

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Speaker 5: it a dollar thank you, and you putting up that

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Speaker 5: wonderful dollar Looney chart and you see things adjusts and

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Speaker 5: you wonder, Okay, what do we do with China, what

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Speaker 5: do we do with Mexico with the produce debate? And

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Speaker 5: pharmaceuticals with Europe? Guess what there may be constructive surprises

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Speaker 5: is the certitude of the tariff debate gives way, It

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Speaker 5: makes it easier for the next chairman, and maybe maybe

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Speaker 5: I'll get out of triple levers all cash. It's fifty fifty.

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Speaker 2: Oh, now is the time to definitely do it? Yeah,

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Speaker 2: for sure, Jim. Before we let you get on with

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Speaker 2: your day, I do want to finish there that have

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Speaker 2: we seen from tariffs that there is this fungibility there

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Speaker 2: that they get put on, they get taken off, and

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Speaker 2: that right now the path of travel is lower from

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Speaker 2: where we were maybe on April second, not higher again,

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Speaker 2: And so you can look through in another kind of

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Speaker 2: way some of the inflationary impact.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think it was great to reach

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Speaker 3: a pluminary deal with the EU. That's one of the

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Speaker 3: bigger blocks in the world.

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Speaker 4: China put on the back burner.

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Speaker 3: Markets like that for now, and then you've got Canada

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Speaker 3: and Mexico. Looks like we're headed toward renegotiation of the USMCA,

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Speaker 3: which I think would be a fine thing to revisit.

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Speaker 3: Was scheduled for twenty twenty six anyway, so it's maybe

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Speaker 3: a little bit more settled than it was earlier this year,

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Speaker 3: and I think markets are liking that.

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Speaker 4: That's making it easier to plan. So far, so good

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Speaker 4: on that.

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Speaker 2: Jim Bullard, former Saint Louis FED President, joining us. Thank

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Speaker 2: you so much for being with us. Maybe a future

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Speaker 2: FED chair. We shall see. The process is ongoing. And

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Speaker 2: City Wealth Chief Investments Officer Kate Moore, before we let

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Speaker 2: you go, I just would like your take on this,

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Speaker 2: the idea that we are at a moment where suddenly

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Speaker 2: people are looking through the inflationary ramifications of tariffs. Are

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Speaker 2: you seeing the same kind of thing? And that's appropriate

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Speaker 2: that this isn't nineteen seventies. This is a different shock

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Speaker 2: that usually is a demand shock in the end.

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Speaker 8: Look, I will say people have been looking through the

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Speaker 8: inflationary impact of terriffs for the entirety of the summer.

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Speaker 8: At this point, there's been an enormous roller coaster ride

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Speaker 8: in terms of expectations for end tariffs. But what I

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Speaker 8: will say is this, you know, even if we're at

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Speaker 8: a lower rate, I'm just going to say fifteen percent

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Speaker 8: effective tariffs relative to where expectations were in the beginning

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Speaker 8: of April. I think we have to keep our eye

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Speaker 8: on the sectoral teriffs and this has potentially some of

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Speaker 8: the biggest impact for overall earnings. And those are sticky,

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Speaker 8: we know, and are likely to endure through multiple different administrations.

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Speaker 8: So you know, this a give and take between some

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Speaker 8: of our trading partners around the reciprocal tariffs we're watching

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Speaker 8: that it's very hard to trade around it. But I

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Speaker 8: will say the sectoral tariffs are going to be very

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Speaker 8: important for our outlook.

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Speaker 6: Stay with us.

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Speaker 5: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday

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00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

445
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:38,440
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

446
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 2: Well, let's take a listen to what Fedchara Jerome Powell

447
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 2: had to say about tariffs and what the impact is

448
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:45,360
Speaker 2: on the economy.

449
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:45,880
Speaker 4: Take listen.

450
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 9: The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible.

451
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 9: We expect those effects to accumulate overcoming months, with high

452
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:59,439
Speaker 9: uncertainty about both timing and amounts. The question that matters

453
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,640
Speaker 9: for monetary policy is whether these price increases are likely

454
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 9: to materially raise the risk of an ongoing inflation problem.

455
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,639
Speaker 2: What you could see is the response is rip roaring

456
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 2: in markets, with equities surging, yields plunging on the front end,

457
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:17,680
Speaker 2: yield curve steepening at a dollar a weeker Pimpko global

458
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 2: economic advisor and former FED Vice chair Rich Clarita joining us.

459
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 2: Now and Rich, what's your take on what we just

460
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 2: heard from FED share j Powell?

461
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 10: Well, I think the share certainly intended to open the

462
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 10: door pretty wide to cutting in September. Importantly, Lisa, he

463
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 10: spent a lot of time on balance of risk, which

464
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,880
Speaker 10: is what policy makers do, but at the two key

465
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 10: junctures he highlighted the balance of risk to the labor

466
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 10: market is to a weaker labor market, and he basically

467
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 10: indicated that the balance of risk to higher inflation doesn't

468
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 10: appear to be a first order concern in terms of

469
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 10: persistent inflation. So I think the message was they think

470
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 10: they're going to cut in September, we get some more data,

471
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 10: and the markets every acted to that.

472
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:03,679
Speaker 2: How much do you think that this is partly to

473
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 2: maintain the Fed's credibility, not necessarily with respect to the president,

474
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 2: but that right now, if they get it wrong on

475
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 2: the labor market front, that it is that much more

476
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 2: pernicious based on some of the job owning by what

477
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 2: we hear from the President.

478
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,360
Speaker 10: Well, yeah, I mean, as the chair said in the remarks,

479
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 10: it's a curious kind of balance in the labor market.

480
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,679
Speaker 10: The payroll employment growth has been very, very weak in

481
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 10: the private sector, but the unemployment rate has not gone up,

482
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 10: and so they are really focused on the balance of risk.

483
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 4: Look, the FED has a dual mandate.

484
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,720
Speaker 10: It's costly to let inflation move higher and stay there,

485
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 10: but it's also costly to have a recession with the

486
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,639
Speaker 10: rise of the unemployment. And I think, Lisa, you're correct

487
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 10: they are tilting in that direction.

488
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 4: Now.

489
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 2: It feels like a very different Jackson Hole. And this

490
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 2: is something that we've been talking about with all of

491
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 2: our guests today, Rich that people have come on and

492
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 2: said there is a different tone about central banking independence

493
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,639
Speaker 2: and a question of how to communicate at a time

494
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:06,400
Speaker 2: of such political interference. What's your sense of where that

495
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,200
Speaker 2: was in the speech that we just heard from Fedchair

496
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 2: J Powell.

497
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,680
Speaker 10: I think the approach the Chair took was to really

498
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 10: focus front and center Lisa on the dual mandate that's

499
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 10: assigned by Congress maximum employment and price stability, and the

500
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 10: Chair gave a very reasoned and thoughtful analysis and discussion

501
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 10: of how they're balancing the dual mandate risks.

502
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,919
Speaker 4: And I think that's the j. Powell message to the

503
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 4: issue of FED independence.

504
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 10: We have an assignment from Congress, and this is what

505
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:37,239
Speaker 10: we're doing to achieve it.

506
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 2: At this point, we also are dealing with the headlines

507
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 2: that are coming out about FED Governor Lisa Cook, where

508
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 2: at the same time that Jerome Powell was giving his speech,

509
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 2: President Trump came out with this truth post saying that

510
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 2: he will fire Lisa Cook if she doesn't resign. We

511
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 2: did hear reports that in the Jackson Lake Lodge and

512
00:26:55,920 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 2: the lobby that James Fishback was screaming at so Cook

513
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 2: that why did she commit mortgage fraud? What's your take

514
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 2: on what this does in terms of both the FED

515
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 2: composition but also just the ability to be clear minded

516
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 2: about making FED policy.

517
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:18,399
Speaker 10: Well, obviously understand just looking at the headlines that you

518
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:22,400
Speaker 10: mentioned myself and don't know the details or the facts

519
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 10: in this particular situation, but clearly we're in an environment

520
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 10: where FED independence is under scrutiny. And my conviction is that,

521
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,919
Speaker 10: notwithstanding all of the very relevant factors that you mentioned,

522
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 10: that the Fed's is going to keep doing keep doing

523
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 10: his job.

524
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 5: Richard Claire to Tom Keene here, thank you so much

525
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 5: for joining.

526
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:45,159
Speaker 6: U's very valuable.

527
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 5: I've got two tasks I want to take here that

528
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,360
Speaker 5: I think are important. You recently said that what matters

529
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 5: is the institution that this chairman and any future chairman

530
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 5: has to protect the institution. What's the day one first

531
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 5: mandate to protect the institution for the next chairman?

532
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 10: Well, I think first and foremost it's to have in

533
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 10: place a plan and communication that will deliver expectations of

534
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 10: price stability. I think the chair was right today to

535
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:19,199
Speaker 10: emphasize that the FED has to focus on getting price stability,

536
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 10: because that's going to deliver the ability to deliver maximum employment.

537
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 10: I've also written Tom that the FED is sort of

538
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 10: a complex and cumbersome institution with nineteen folks around the

539
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:33,640
Speaker 10: table and the Reserve Bank presidents. But I do think

540
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 10: that is a strength right now of the institution.

541
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 5: Right Well, this is really important because it's as fractiiced

542
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 5: as a meeting of the bond team at Pimco. In

543
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 5: the middle of the speech, Powell channeled a few years

544
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 5: ago at PIMCO the new normal for a moment, I thought.

545
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 5: Mohammed Ilarian persued it in to write the speech, What

546
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 5: is your optimal new normal for the FED? Which Powell

547
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 5: mentioned today? What's the best new normal for the next FED?

548
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 10: Well, I think a new normal would be inflation moving

549
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 10: down towards the two percent target, which would let the

550
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 10: next BEED chair cut rates down towards a neutral level.

551
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 10: You know, Pimco in twenty fourteen we rolled out the

552
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 10: idea of a new neutral and we've been operating in

553
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 10: that new neutral world now for more than a decade,

554
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 10: and so I think well anchored inflation expectations, getting tariffs

555
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 10: in the rear view, Mirr would allow the FED to

556
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 10: cut rates by probably one hundred and fifty basis points

557
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 10: from here and achieving that ultimate soft landing. So I

558
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 10: think that would be a good new normal destination for

559
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 10: the next FED chair.

560
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 2: What risks are there to that given what we're seeing

561
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 2: with the dollar, given the fact that we really have

562
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 2: a very high level of uncertainty around which tariffs are

563
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 2: going to stick and how much is going to get

564
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 2: past along to consumers.

565
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 10: Sure, and I think the Chair was right to point

566
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 10: out that we are seeing evidence of tariffs showing up

567
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 10: in the price indexes for imported goods, but that's been

568
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 10: offset to extent with the decline in services inflation. Again,

569
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 10: I think where they are focused is to make sure

570
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 10: that what is an inevitable increase in the price level

571
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 10: from tariffs does not over time result in persistent inflation.

572
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 10: And I think the speech today addressed their thinking right now,

573
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 10: which is that their baseline is that that will not happen,

574
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 10: which will give them the room possibly in September, to

575
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 10: cut rates.

576
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, Lisa, I think it's important to mention within the

577
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 5: market check that the market is putting on steam. Here

578
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 5: an hour after the beginning of the speech and Mike

579
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 5: McKee's bombshell headlines a Dow lifting up. I'm not told

580
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 5: I can't leave Jackson Hall unless Dow goes up a

581
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 5: thousand points.

582
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 6: Well, I'm getting pretty close to you.

583
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 2: It sounds like you're going to be hiking for maybe

584
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 2: another six hours and then all of a sudden not

585
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 2: so much rich. I do want to know, though, about

586
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 2: what this does in terms of the currency ramifications and

587
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 2: where your preference lies in terms of the good investment backdrop,

588
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 2: because what we heard from fetcherg is so vastly different

589
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 2: from what we heard from Joakim Novel of the German

590
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 2: Central Bank, where he said we have to focus on

591
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 2: inflation and right now that is more concerning to them

592
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 2: than trying to support growth by cutting rates or being stimulative.

593
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 2: The fact that that is the framework there and it

594
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 2: is such a different framework here, does that make you

595
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 2: want to invest in Europe a little bit more?

596
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 10: Well, you know, I think one of our themes at

597
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 10: PIMCO is that we're in a world where taking advantage

598
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 10: of a global opportunity set makes sense. Also, we're in

599
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 10: a world where makes sense to focus on valuations and

600
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 10: without getting into particular markets or securities. There have been

601
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 10: some pretty big divergencies between valuation in the US and Europe,

602
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 10: especially in inequity markets. Also, you know, the Europeans are

603
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 10: much closer to their two percent target than is the

604
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 10: FED because from your point of view, the tariffs are

605
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 10: really a disinflationary force. So we're at different points in

606
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 10: the rate cycle, and that does open up some good opportunities.

607
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 5: Richard Clarita, you are definitive in the mathematics, the modern

608
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 5: mathematics of our economics. Then you know, we talk about

609
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 5: a new framework and it's a lot of job boning

610
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 5: about process.

611
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 6: Maybe it's what are we going to do with the dots?

612
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 6: What are we going to do with the.

613
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 5: Mathematics of modern economics?

614
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 6: Forward? Is it diminished after all this turmoil?

615
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 10: You know, you know, Tom, you and I over the

616
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 10: years decades now, I've talked about that a number of times,

617
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 10: and my thinking continues to be the mathematics, the models,

618
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 10: including my own, our tools. They're a starting point for

619
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:41,320
Speaker 10: analysis and discussion, but they're not They're not handcuffs, nor

620
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 10: are they the destination.

621
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 4: And certainly, you know.

622
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 10: The last five years have been unusual with a pandemic

623
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 10: and all the rest. But I continue to believe that

624
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 10: models in math are our tools, not handcuffs.

625
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 5: My goal right now, Rich is to get you on

626
00:32:57,680 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 5: the short list, is to be the next chairman.

627
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 6: So let's talk tariffs here.

628
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 5: What is the clarita mathematics of Trump tariffs?

629
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 10: Well, as Mike McKee said, they are raising a heck

630
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 10: of a lot of revenue, and I would agree with.

631
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 6: My Washington there you go.

632
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 10: I think I think Washington may very quickly get hooked

633
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 10: on the two or three hundred billion dollars a year

634
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 10: in tariff revenue, especially if you know the initial cost

635
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 10: of raising that revenue is in the rearview mirror, which

636
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 10: which I think I expect to be the case down

637
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 10: the road.

638
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 6: Look, we're in.

639
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 4: A different regime, you know.

640
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 10: We talked at PIMCO in June about an era of fragmentation,

641
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 10: and these trends have been accelerating and the destination for

642
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 10: the global trading system and global economy is going to

643
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 10: be very different in five years than it was in

644
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 10: the thirty years of globalization. So I think to be

645
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 10: continued is the way I would answer your question.

646
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 2: He's running, Is that what you think? I know?

647
00:33:59,120 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 6: Bullets running?

648
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think by the time we get done on

649
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 5: the show today, we're going to have Tracy Alloway, right.

650
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 2: I think that maybe we'll find out, But I am

651
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:11,439
Speaker 2: we will. She's sitting here with us. I'm sure, she says,

652
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 2: I bag Rich. I am curious though, going forward this

653
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 2: idea of how inflationary tariffs could or couldn't be given

654
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 2: the fact that this is a new world order. And

655
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 2: we were talking with Adam Posen of the Peter S

656
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 2: Constitute earlier, and he was talking about how he sees

657
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 2: inflation as having nodes of the nineteen seventies and potentially

658
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 2: being really pernicious. Why do you not necessarily see that?

659
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 2: Why are markets more sanguine on that risk?

660
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 10: Well, I think simply because the nineteen seventies we're a

661
00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 10: very serient experience for the current group of policymakers who

662
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 10: lived through it, and I think there were some important

663
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 10: lessons learned. And one lesson learned is high and persistent

664
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 10: inflation is very costly to the economy. And I think

665
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 10: politicians learn that as well, and so I think that

666
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 10: central banks have earned a lot of credibility. The under Vulcar,

667
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 10: under green Span, under pass fed chairs in the US

668
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:17,839
Speaker 10: and abroad, and I think that expectations of inflation, we're

669
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 10: sort of in a world in which the bomb markets

670
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 10: at least think that over a five year period, the

671
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 10: FED is going to do whatever it takes to get

672
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 10: inflation down what I call two points something. And I

673
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 10: think that's an important victory that central banks are still

674
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 10: benefiting from, and I would expect that and certainly hope

675
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 10: that will continue.

676
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:40,520
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00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:44,920
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00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,280
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00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:52,240
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00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:55,640
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00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:57,960
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