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Speaker 1: Hello there, Happy Thursday. Welcome to another episode of the

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Speaker 1: check podcast. We are forty eight hours removed from essentially

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Speaker 1: the beginning of the midterm elections, and I'll get to

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Speaker 1: my reasoning on that again in a minute, But essentially

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Speaker 1: the twenty twenty six campaign started Election Night twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Obviously some of you may have watched watch my Election

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Speaker 1: Night live stream. First of all, just we are ecstatic

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Speaker 1: how well that went. For those of you that tunedn't

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Speaker 1: thank you. We had a huge audience, nearly half a

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Speaker 1: million people coming in. At any point in time, were

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Speaker 1: still trying to figure out the data, but it blew

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Speaker 1: the doors off, whether you caught us on X on YouTube,

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Speaker 1: whether it was on my pages, decision to s HQ,

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Speaker 1: Chris Elizzes substack. That was the beauty of this. We

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Speaker 1: could be in so many different platforms. We had tremendous

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Speaker 1: guests who brought information. It was data oriented. This wasn't

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Speaker 1: some partisan make yourself feel good or bad fest. This

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Speaker 1: was simply what was happening. What should we learn from this?

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Speaker 1: What's the takeaways with people who are charged with either

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Speaker 1: figuring out how to win or lose an election for

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Speaker 1: Team Red or Team Blue, or figuring out what happened

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Speaker 1: to explain blain to you. Look, we're so pleased with

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Speaker 1: how this went. This is something we hope and plan

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Speaker 1: to do again, and we'd love to hear from you

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Speaker 1: of thoughts, suggestions. What did you like that we did,

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Speaker 1: What do you wish we didn't do that we did?

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Speaker 1: And what do you wish that we did do that

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Speaker 1: we didn't? You know, we really tried to gear this

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Speaker 1: towards those that wanted that were following this stuff pretty

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Speaker 1: closely and wanted to understand what the heck was happening

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Speaker 1: on the ground election night and various I know, for me,

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Speaker 1: I learned a whole bunch of stuff from our guests,

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Speaker 1: the Newsgirls and what the work that they did in

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Speaker 1: New York. I want to give them another shout out.

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Speaker 1: Mable and Rent there and the Newsgirls and what they

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Speaker 1: did with covering voters in New York City and really

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Speaker 1: sort of capturing the story before anybody else got it,

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Speaker 1: which was what was happening with Republican voters in New

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Speaker 1: York City and how much that they held their nose

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Speaker 1: to support Cuomo. So just a tremendous success and I'm

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Speaker 1: just tickled about it. And yes I use the word tickle.

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Speaker 1: It's called me an old man for doing that. But

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Speaker 1: we're going to do more of this, but we definitely

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Speaker 1: would love feedback and suggestions, so don't be shy about that.

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Speaker 1: I want to get a little bit more. And I

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Speaker 1: feel like when you have a day to sort of

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Speaker 1: unpack everything you can, you know, it's like the day

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Speaker 1: after a storm hits you. Sometimes you think you know

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Speaker 1: the damage on the night of the storm, but sometimes

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Speaker 1: you need the sunlight right. And so in a few minutes,

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Speaker 1: We're going to take a look at things after I've

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Speaker 1: been able to look at things with some light and

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Speaker 1: in the light of day. Obviously, I'll also do some questions,

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Speaker 1: and hey, it's Thursday, it's a college football weekend, and

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Speaker 1: I'm going to another college football game this weekend. I'll

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Speaker 1: explain after the interview and after on the other side,

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Speaker 1: after we do some q and a's, but before we

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Speaker 1: get there, you know, in the light of day, with

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Speaker 1: a little extra time to look at all the results.

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Speaker 1: Tuesday night was a big night for Democrats. This was

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Speaker 1: not just a good night for them, it was it

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Speaker 1: was bigger than they would have expected. And I can

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Speaker 1: tell you what surprised me. I mean, did I expect

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Speaker 1: Spamberger to win, Cheryl to win, and Mom Donnie win. Yes, yes,

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Speaker 1: and yes. But it was the fact that Spamberger was

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Speaker 1: able to win by double digits, and she dragged Jay Jones,

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Speaker 1: the attorney the controversial Attorney general candidate, across the finish line,

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Speaker 1: a candidate by the way, that Spamberger did not reindorse

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Speaker 1: after the controversial text messages became released. He certainly underperformed

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Speaker 1: Spamberger by a good five to seven points, but she

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Speaker 1: won by such a big margin. Democratic turnout was so

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Speaker 1: big that it was enough to overcome that. So I

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Speaker 1: would say be careful assuming, you know, one of the

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Speaker 1: quick knee jerk takeaways of this might be a character

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter. Right, We've seen it with Donald Trump, Now,

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Speaker 1: we've seen it with Jay Jones. You know how many

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Speaker 1: times we've seen it with Bill Clinton? Right? How many

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Speaker 1: times do we need to be reminded of this? And

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Speaker 1: then I would say, well, look at the margins, you know,

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Speaker 1: you know, but for in a different national political environment,

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Speaker 1: these texts would have cost j Jones the election, that's

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Speaker 1: the bottom line. But because it was such an awful

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Speaker 1: environment for Republicans in such a good environment for Democrats,

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Speaker 1: that ended up it looks like it doesn't matter. But

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Speaker 1: don't kid yourself. Go look at those margins. It did matter.

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Speaker 1: It just didn't cost him the election. But that's the

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Speaker 1: point here. That's how big the Democratic turnout was. Take

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Speaker 1: a look at the state of New Jersey. Jack Chiarelli

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Speaker 1: essentially hit all of his targets that he did four

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Speaker 1: years ago in twenty twenty one, when he came within

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Speaker 1: three points of Phil Murphy, it was a pretty competitive

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Speaker 1: New Jersey governor's rights Well, he hit those same numbers,

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Speaker 1: but the turnout among Democrats was so much greater in

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Speaker 1: the democratic areas than Mikey Cheryl went rather comfortable, So

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Speaker 1: it was a huge turnout. Basically, Democrats showed up base

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Speaker 1: Republicans did not. And in fact, the best example of

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Speaker 1: this was not in New Jersey, was not in Virginia,

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Speaker 1: not in New York City. It was in Georgia. They

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Speaker 1: had two public Service commissioner races. And for those of

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Speaker 1: you that don't live in the South, this is a

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Speaker 1: little bit more of a Southern state thing, and there's

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Speaker 1: a few other states that do it this way, where

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Speaker 1: essentially the group of folks that oversee the public utilities

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Speaker 1: in a state that help approve whether they can have

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Speaker 1: a rate height on your electric bills. And by the way,

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Speaker 1: this I'm going to get to the electric bills issue

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Speaker 1: in a minute. In some states these are elected officials

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Speaker 1: and some states that are appointed by a governor or

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Speaker 1: appointed by a legislature. In this case, these are elected officials.

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Speaker 1: Now these are two Republican incumbents. They neither of the

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Speaker 1: men ever faced voters before they were appointed by the

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Speaker 1: governor and then had to stand for re election. There

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Speaker 1: was a bit of it. This was sort of there

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Speaker 1: had been a lawsuit. This is if you want to

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Speaker 1: get some of the details about this race, I encourage

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Speaker 1: you to go deeper on this and why these two

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Speaker 1: seats were on the ballot essentially for voter affirmation on

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Speaker 1: whether they were going to accept the appointee or whether

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Speaker 1: they wanted this alternative. But what you had in Georgia

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Speaker 1: was a fairly low turnout and there was a lot

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Speaker 1: of money spent in those races, so it was essentially

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Speaker 1: a test of whose voters showed up. And this is

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Speaker 1: a battleground state, right Georgia frankly is a state that

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Speaker 1: I think of is still a bit light red, you know,

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Speaker 1: when you look at where the you know, Democrats carried

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Speaker 1: it in twenty twenty won a couple of Senate seats

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Speaker 1: in the runoff after Donald Trump essentially messed up those

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Speaker 1: runoff races. Rafael Warnock wins in twenty twenty two, but

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Speaker 1: gets forced into a runoff by essentially the worst Senate

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Speaker 1: nominee that Georgia Republicans have had in a generation. But

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Speaker 1: it took a runoff frohim to win. So I've been

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Speaker 1: a bit skeptical that Georgia truly is a battleground state

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Speaker 1: that maybe it was just sort of an it's still

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Speaker 1: a lean red state that Democrats have to catch a

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Speaker 1: few breaks in order to win statewide, and in particularly

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Speaker 1: state level races, they had been getting crushed. They they

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Speaker 1: hadn't won a state level race, I think since two

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Speaker 1: thousand and nine, when a gentleman named Michael Thurman, who

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Speaker 1: happens to be running for governor this time, was able

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Speaker 1: to win a low level, down ballot statewide race. And

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Speaker 1: here we are and it wasn't even that close. It

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Speaker 1: was a wipeout. Now, I will say that this, and

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Speaker 1: I think this is a little nugget that people ought

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Speaker 1: to be aware of. I wouldn't be surprised if some

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Speaker 1: voters simply went into the polls and said, my electric

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Speaker 1: bills too damn high. I'm voting out the incumbent, right,

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Speaker 1: and there was a denotion of who the incumbent was.

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Speaker 1: And so I don't want to underestimate the power of

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Speaker 1: pissed off voters about their electric bills having an impact

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Speaker 1: when you get to directly express your frustration to the

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Speaker 1: Public Service commissioner who oversees rate hikes. But this was

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Speaker 1: a generic test of the two parties. And I'll tell

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Speaker 1: you this. If I'm John Ossoff, the Democratic senator up

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Speaker 1: for reelection in twenty twenty six, the most vulnerable Democratic

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Speaker 1: incumbent senator in the country, I think it's fair to

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Speaker 1: say you feel a heck of a lot better about

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Speaker 1: your chances today than perhaps you did yesterday. Look, he's

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Speaker 1: a fundraising juggernaut. He's going to have plenty of money.

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Speaker 1: He's catching a break that Republicans can't settle on a nominee.

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Speaker 1: Brian Kemps got his choice. And the son of former

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Speaker 1: Georgia football coach legend Vince Dooley, It's Derek Dooley. You

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Speaker 1: got two other candidates vying. They're all vying for the

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump endorsement. None of them have gotten that just yet.

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Speaker 1: You got Mike Collins in this race, son of Matt Collins.

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Speaker 1: Buddy Carter running as well, So it's a you know,

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Speaker 1: he's catching a break. There's a lot of money is

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Speaker 1: going to be spent between these three guys just trying

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Speaker 1: to get this nomination. But now, well, I'm starting to

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Speaker 1: think I was you know, I assume that the governor's

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Speaker 1: race was sort of a soft ur Lean here. Yes,

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Speaker 1: Brian kempis term limited, especially if a guy like Brad Raffensberger,

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Speaker 1: the outgoing Republican Secretary of State, gets that nomination. But

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Speaker 1: now you have to be pretty bullish about Democrats' chances

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Speaker 1: up and down the ballot in the state of Georgia

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Speaker 1: based on these results. But look, this wasn't just Virginia

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Speaker 1: or New Jersey or Georgia. In Pennsylvania, Republicans throw a

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Speaker 1: bunch of money trying to throw out a few Supreme

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Speaker 1: Court justices. They have an up or down they don't.

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Speaker 1: These were retention elections, and then if the voters choose

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Speaker 1: to not retain the Supreme Court justice, the governor would

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Speaker 1: appoint a temporary and then there would be an election

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty seven to fill to let the voters

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Speaker 1: decide who the long term justice should be. And Democrats

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Speaker 1: beat back all all of those sort of attempts by

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Speaker 1: Republicans to upend that Supreme Court. It's a five to

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Speaker 1: two majority right now in favor of the Democrats. That

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Speaker 1: is twenty twenty eight implications, right you know who's going

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Speaker 1: to be making the decisions about ballots and about whether

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Speaker 1: the polls, what time the polls should stay open to

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Speaker 1: or when early voting should begin, or what's the signature

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Speaker 1: rules when it comes to absentee ballots. This little these

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Speaker 1: little things matter, but more importantly organizationally, the party engaged

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Speaker 1: here and yet they got swamped. This was a repudiation

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Speaker 1: of Donald Trump. And here's why I say that. If

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Speaker 1: you look at the exit polling, and certainly if you

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Speaker 1: look at the polling that I highlighted in my Monday podcast,

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Speaker 1: the Republican Party brand is in better shape than the

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party brand. Right. The Democratic Party has some of

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Speaker 1: the highest unfavorable ratings that's had in decades, and in fact,

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Speaker 1: the in the network exit polls they did do a

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Speaker 1: elective exit poll, the Democratic Party had an unfavorable rating

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Speaker 1: in the state of Virginia of over fifty percent. That

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Speaker 1: didn't prevent Abigail Spenberger, the Democratic nominee for governor, from

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Speaker 1: having the biggest victory of of any Democrat in forty years.

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Speaker 1: And it's the biggest victory of any candidate for governor

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Speaker 1: since Bob McDonald's victory in two thousand and nine. So

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Speaker 1: this despite the unpopularity of the Democratic brand, Democrats won big.

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Speaker 1: So how do you explain it? Two words, Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: because his unfavorable rating is basically equal to the Democrats.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump's brand is in worse shape than the Republican

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Speaker 1: Party brand. And that is the driver. As I always say,

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Speaker 1: you know, presidents create the political weather. You know, we

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Speaker 1: use a lot of I use I say we, I

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Speaker 1: use a lot of weather metaphors when it to politics. Right, Collectively,

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Speaker 1: the entire political analyst community uses a lot of weather metaphors. So,

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Speaker 1: sticking with that metaphor, it is a president that creates

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Speaker 1: the weather. It is his political environment, especially a second

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Speaker 1: term president, especially someone who has got such control of

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Speaker 1: his party. And this is where his reaction, I think

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Speaker 1: tells you where this could be. And I think the

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Speaker 1: next three weeks are going to be fascinating inside the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party as this finger pointing starts to set in.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, for whatever reason, just handed Democrats more leverage

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Speaker 1: on the government shutdown debate. Why do I say he

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Speaker 1: handed Democrats more leverage because he chose to blame the

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Speaker 1: shutdown for the losses of the Republicans. So in Trump's view,

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Speaker 1: because remember, nothing is Donald Trump's fault when things go badly.

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Speaker 1: When things go badly, in Donald Trump's world, you have

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Speaker 1: to find someone else to blame. Donald Trump is not

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Speaker 1: going to accept the premise that he alone is why

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Speaker 1: Democrats had such an easy time getting their people to

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Speaker 1: the polls. That is something he's not going to accept.

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Speaker 1: But the fact that he goes out there and Chuck Schumer,

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Speaker 1: by the way, retweeted his comments and said, I agree

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Speaker 1: with him. Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I

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Speaker 1: us in the best shape. My mother single mother, now widow.

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Speaker 1: Myself sixteen trying to figure out how am I going

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Speaker 1: had one life insurance policy that we found wasn't a lot,

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Speaker 1: but it was important at the time, and it's why

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Speaker 1: I was able to go to college. Little did he

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Speaker 1: know how important that would be in that moment. Well,

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Speaker 1: guess what. That's why I am here to tell you

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Speaker 1: life insurance is something you should really think about, especially

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Speaker 1: if you've got a growing family. When Donald Trump goes

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Speaker 1: out there and said the reason they lost was one

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Speaker 1: Trump wasn't on the ballot, the inference there is because

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Speaker 1: there's a whole bunch of low propensity voters that only

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Speaker 1: show up when Donald Trump's on the ballot. Right, We've

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Speaker 1: seen this in sixteen and twenty once again in twenty four.

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Speaker 1: We've seen them in the midterms. They didn't show up

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Speaker 1: in eighteen, they didn't show up in twenty two, and

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Speaker 1: it looks like we're going to see a bit of

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Speaker 1: the same thing in twenty six because they didn't show

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Speaker 1: up in twenty five. And then he also said, and

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Speaker 1: this shutdown is killing the Republicans. So if you're Mike

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Speaker 1: Johnson and John Thune, you've spent the last six weeks,

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Speaker 1: I think it feeling is if you had higher ground

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Speaker 1: than the Democrats, because it was Chuck Schumer's decision to

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Speaker 1: sort of lead the Democrats into saying, no, we're not

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Speaker 1: going to do this, We're going to you know, this

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Speaker 1: was a shutdown instigated by the Democrats. And you know,

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Speaker 1: when you've looked at the polling there's been it's been

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Speaker 1: fairly As I said, it all depends on how you

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Speaker 1: want to spin the numbers. But the NBC poll offered

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Speaker 1: three punches on who's to blame for the shutdown, Democrats

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Speaker 1: in Congress, Republicans in Congress, or Donald Trump. Well, when

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Speaker 1: you add up those that blame Trump pluck with those

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Speaker 1: that blame Congressional Republicans. You get up to fifty two percent,

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Speaker 1: and it was forty two percent that blamed Democrats in Congress.

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Speaker 1: You know, so you could it, But the offering was

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Speaker 1: separately right, and I've look, I think the only question

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Speaker 1: that I would have done is I might have added

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Speaker 1: a fourth punch so that you could have had it

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Speaker 1: a little more even I might have said, you know,

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Speaker 1: progressives in the Democratic Party, because if you know, one

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Speaker 1: of the theories of the case that some on the

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Speaker 1: right have espoused, and some of us have wondered, that

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Speaker 1: did Schumer do this because of pressure from the progressive

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Speaker 1: base to confront Trump? More? So, maybe you offer that

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Speaker 1: punch in that way you can, I think more evenly.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little hesitant combining one set of numbers and

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Speaker 1: comparing it to a standalone that that would be my

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Speaker 1: only caution there. But it doesn't matter now, right, Perception

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Speaker 1: is reality, and Donald Trump uttered the new reality. He's

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Speaker 1: blaming Republicans in Congress and the Republican Party for the shutdown.

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Speaker 1: How the heck now do we get? I mean, look,

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Speaker 1: I really was a believer, and I thought, okay, everybody,

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Speaker 1: everybody sees here, this is gonna We're going to land

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Speaker 1: this plane in some form or another. You know, you

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Speaker 1: heard the conversation before Tuesday night, there were eight Democratic

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Speaker 1: senators starting to meet with a group of other Republican senators.

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Speaker 1: They were coming. Eight is the magic number that they

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Speaker 1: need in order. That's the number of number of votes

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Speaker 1: they need to get to sixty if they go with

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Speaker 1: all the Republican votes here and then this all happened.

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Speaker 1: So now it's very interesting yet Donald Trump blaming Republicans.

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Speaker 1: So now you're going to get more demo scrats feeling

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Speaker 1: as if, Okay, there's no penalty here for sticking sticking

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Speaker 1: to our guns. You're gonna have a progressive base that

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Speaker 1: is whispering in the ear of Akim Jeffreys and Chuck Schumer.

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Speaker 1: Don't back down now. Not only did you not pay

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Speaker 1: a price at the polls, you may have benefited from

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Speaker 1: standing up to Donald Trump right now in the polls.

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Speaker 1: And look at all of the self inflicted wounds Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump is doing right now to his own party and

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Speaker 1: to himself via the shutdown. Right he does not have

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Speaker 1: the discipline to not to to not confess, or not

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Speaker 1: to not to stick with a message that at least

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Speaker 1: was getting them to even but he threw the party

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Speaker 1: under the bus. And this is going to be the

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Speaker 1: real challenge, I think going forward for elected Republicans because

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Speaker 1: when you have a result like this in an off

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Speaker 1: off year, you're going to have there's there's you know,

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Speaker 1: we're we're hitting an interesting six week period where if

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Speaker 1: you are on the fence about running for reelection, you've

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Speaker 1: got to this is your final your final time, your

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Speaker 1: final exit ramp before filing deadlines begin. In fact, there's

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Speaker 1: some filing deadlines that are just about to come up

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Speaker 1: right now for the early twenty twenty six primaries. But

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Speaker 1: for the most part, you know, if you're going you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're going to retire and you're you know, maybe

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Speaker 1: you thought you were going to run for reelection, you

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Speaker 1: wanted to see what the political environment was going to

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Speaker 1: be at the end of the year. Well you've now

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Speaker 1: got a taste. Because you know, if history is any guide,

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Speaker 1: you know how these twenty five how these off off

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Speaker 1: year election goes, they absolutely foreshadow what's going to happen

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Speaker 1: a year later, barring some unforeseen event that radically changes

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Speaker 1: the political landscape. And given that we've lived through terrorist

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Speaker 1: attacks and a pandemic. I'm not going to sit here

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Speaker 1: and say that there's you know, no zero, the chances

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Speaker 1: are zero there's some event that just totally upends everything. Well,

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Speaker 1: let's be realistic. It's more likely than not that that

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Speaker 1: won't happen. That, if anything, we're going to continue to

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Speaker 1: have this sort of uneven economy, an economy that those

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Speaker 1: that don't have are going to feel like they're being

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Speaker 1: left behind. So you're going to have an angry electorate

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Speaker 1: on the economy. The tariffs are none of them do

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Speaker 1: good for the economy, and in fact, we may get

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Speaker 1: more chaos as it appears that the Supreme Court is

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Speaker 1: going to say that Donald Trump is violating the Constitution

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Speaker 1: with his tariff policy, and that this all has to

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Speaker 1: You know that this is the power. This is a

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Speaker 1: power that Congress has. It is not a power that

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Speaker 1: the executive branch has, which will only set his agenda

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Speaker 1: back even further. So you know how many Republicans House

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Speaker 1: Republicans decide, why do I got to pay Donald Trump's

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Speaker 1: debt when Donald Trump's not on the ballot? Right, maybe

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Speaker 1: I can win reelection if Donald Trump can get his

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Speaker 1: voters out and I can suck it up and take

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Speaker 1: the uncomfortable aspects of supporting Trump that come with it,

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Speaker 1: because he brings a type of a different type of

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Speaker 1: voter to the polls that nobody sees in polling, and

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Speaker 1: it helps them win reelection. But if Donald Trump's not

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Speaker 1: on the ballot, and you have to essentially you get

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Speaker 1: all the downside of Trump with none of the upside.

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Speaker 1: Do you want to one for reelection if you're a

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Speaker 1: if you're in a tough race. So the biggest development,

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Speaker 1: I think, and the biggest piece of fallout that's coming,

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Speaker 1: is going to be that there's going to be some

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Speaker 1: additional retirements throw in this redistricting madness that has taken place.

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Speaker 1: Right talk about a reminder, be careful what you you know,

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Speaker 1: would pick your cliche, be careful what you wish for

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Speaker 1: or when you you know. It's easy to start a war,

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Speaker 1: it's much harder to end it. So Donald Trump orders

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Speaker 1: Texas to start this redistricting war. It rallies Gavin Newsom

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Speaker 1: and organizes the California Democratic Party and unifies them in

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Speaker 1: a way that they haven't been unified in decades. You've

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Speaker 1: now got a record number of House delegates in the

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Speaker 1: Virginia Assembly, encouraging them now to do redistricting that will

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Speaker 1: favor the Democrats, that will put more pressure on Maryland

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Speaker 1: to join. Yes, there's been pressure put on your Indiana's,

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Speaker 1: your Missouri's, Kansas has decided to pull back. But I

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Speaker 1: imagine now, you know, in for a dime, in for

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Speaker 1: a dollar, you're going to see Trump go even harder

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Speaker 1: at Kansas to have to do this. But the irony

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Speaker 1: all this is Donald Trump thought he was going to

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Speaker 1: be gaining an advantage doing this. Democrats are fighting fire

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Speaker 1: with fire. I'm sorry that the unintended consequence is going

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00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 1: to be fewer competitive elections in general, But the larger

430
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 1: outcome here is going to be We're going to go

431
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:51,679
Speaker 1: from a fairly even national map when it comes to

432
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 1: house races to a fairly even national map after all

433
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,280
Speaker 1: these changes are made. You know. Okay, so maybe you

434
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 1: pick up three or four in Texas on the Republican side,

435
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:07,120
Speaker 1: Democrats may pick up three or four. In California, Republicans

436
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 1: may get one or two more. In Indiana, Democrats may

437
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 1: get three more. In Virginia, Republicans may get one more.

438
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:16,679
Speaker 1: In Missouri, they may get one or two more. In

439
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 1: North Carolina. Democrats could get another one or two if

440
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 1: they choose to in a New York or New or

441
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 1: even in New Jersey. The point is they and then

442
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 1: you had Ohio Republicans cut a deal that is a

443
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 1: less aggressive map that Republicans could have embarked on. Look,

444
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 1: the downside is just fewer competitive races. But I'll tell

445
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 1: you this too, because there's something else that developed out

446
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:48,719
Speaker 1: of the election night in twenty twenty five. You know,

447
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 1: a lot of Republicans and this is always a mistake,

448
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 1: you know, never assume that your success in a presidential

449
00:25:55,160 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 1: election year means your new coalition becomes durable. And I

450
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:02,680
Speaker 1: think a lot of Republicans thought, hey, look we won

451
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 1: these Latino voters. Now they're in. There are voters just

452
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,919
Speaker 1: like Barack Obama in twenty thirteen, and excuse me, in

453
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:14,880
Speaker 1: twenty twelve did extraordinarily well with Latinos, and so there

454
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 1: it was. Democrats thought, there it is, they just have

455
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 1: to do the youth, young voters, black voters, and brown voters,

456
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 1: and they win. And it turned out nope. You know,

457
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 1: there was plenty of voters who were voting for Barack

458
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 1: Obama who would go back to being up for grabs.

459
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 1: Barack Obama wasn't on the ballot, And there's plenty of

460
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 1: these working class voters, whether you're Black, White, Hispanic, that

461
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 1: are pocketbook sensitive and they're going to vote for the

462
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 1: candidate that is speaking to the issues they care the

463
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:47,119
Speaker 1: most about. Well, Donald Trump was talking about prices and

464
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 1: cost of living issues in twenty twenty four. He's not

465
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 1: doing that in twenty twenty five. Democrats in New Jersey

466
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 1: and in New York City and in Virginia. One thing

467
00:26:56,200 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 1: all three of those winners did that was similar was

468
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 1: talk about cost of living issues. And they guess what,

469
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,400
Speaker 1: they all did better with Latino voters than Kamala Harris did,

470
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 1: who didn't talk about those issues. She closed with the

471
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 1: democracy issue, so imagined redistricting Texas, thinking, oh, look, we've

472
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 1: got this new constituency of Latino voters that are now

473
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 1: going to be Republican voters. No, they're not. They're swing voters,

474
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 1: and they're probably going to be swing voting. By the way,

475
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 1: working the working class voter in America has always been

476
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 1: the swing voter if you look at politics more through

477
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 1: class than you do identity, and I think that's been

478
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,200
Speaker 1: the mistake. I really believe that. I think the Democratic

479
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:46,119
Speaker 1: Party's mistake since Obama was assuming they won those voters

480
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 1: on identity issues, not due to financial issues, which really

481
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:54,919
Speaker 1: is a translation class issues. Republicans went after these voters

482
00:27:54,920 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 1: of color using class not identity. And when you look

483
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:05,919
Speaker 1: at why, you know Reagan Democrats voted Republican, well, that

484
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:09,360
Speaker 1: was code for working class Democrats in the Midwest voters. Yes,

485
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 1: there was certainly there was certainly a cultural connection on

486
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 1: that front, but ultimately they were voting on their own

487
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 1: issues and its class issues. And so the working class

488
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:26,679
Speaker 1: vote in America, it's always been the swing vote. And

489
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 1: the mistake Democrats made for the last decade was treating

490
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 1: Latino voters like they were an identity group that belonged

491
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 1: to the Democratic coalition, when ultimately many Latino voters are

492
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 1: blue collar, are in blue collar jobs, and are voting

493
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 1: pocketbook issues. They don't look at the two parties as

494
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 1: part of their identity. They look at the two parties

495
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 1: the same way many voters look at the two parties,

496
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 1: which one is going to give me an opportunity for

497
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 1: a better quality of life? You know, this is where

498
00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 1: it goes. You know, the infamous Carvel line of it's

499
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 1: the economy to be stupid. It's always to a group

500
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 1: of voters, it's always about their issues, their financial stability.

501
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 1: So bottom line, this wasn't a good night for Democrats.

502
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 1: It was a great night for Democrats to get over

503
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 1: sixty seats in that Virginia House that delegates to me

504
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 1: for shadows what could be the beginning of a blue

505
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 1: wave election. Now, look, there's still a lot that could

506
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: change things. The Republicans and Donald Trump have a ton

507
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 1: of money. But I do keep an eye on this.

508
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 1: It is going to be easier for a Republican. There's

509
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 1: gonna be many Republican candidates are going to start to

510
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 1: distance themselves from Trump in some form or another, or

511
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 1: try to. I don't know if anybody can do it

512
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 1: outside of Susan Collins, because she's been doing it for

513
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 1: so long. She's just in some ways main voters do

514
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 1: not consider her trumpet. How does that work itself out?

515
00:29:56,200 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: And there the more vulnerable Trump looks, the weaker he looks,

516
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 1: the more he's going to lash out, the more he's

517
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 1: going to attack anybody that tries to essentially seek a

518
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 1: little distance for him. I mean, look, when some earl series.

519
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 1: She tried to have it both ways. She wanted the magabase,

520
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 1: but she knew the Northern Virginia voters, right. It says

521
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 1: a lot to me that Glenn Youngkin's fifty five percent

522
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 1: job rating, that one in four young positive Youngin job

523
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 1: approvers voted Frabagil Spamberger. So you know, to me, it's

524
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 1: another sign that this was as much about Trump as

525
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 1: it was about anything else. If the Republican Party brand

526
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 1: is non Trump, they have an easier chance in some

527
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: of these elections than they do when they're associated. When

528
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 1: the Republican Party brand becomes synonymous with Trump's brand. And

529
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 1: so that's what I'm going to be looking for over

530
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 1: the next six weeks, is are you going to start

531
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 1: to see more Republicans try to find their way to

532
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 1: seek some distance on some issues. It's going to be

533
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 1: made easy for him Supreme Court rules against his authority

534
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 1: over tariffs. Watch how many Republican Senators start to act

535
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 1: more independently on the issue of tariff's. You already have

536
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 1: seen it a little bit, right. He's putting pressure on

537
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 1: them with the with nuke and the filibuster. It's interesting

538
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:19,479
Speaker 1: who's with them. It is those that are in some

539
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 1: ways more Magga true believers. You're Josh Holly's your Jim Banks.

540
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 1: They're all in. It's the institutionalists that are pushing back

541
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 1: and the Senate Republicans. There's still quite a few of

542
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 1: the institutionalists there. There are two people that I'm very

543
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 1: curious to see what they're going to have to say

544
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 1: about the filibuster on that side of the aisle. One

545
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 1: is Rick Scott and the others Tom Cotton. Both have

546
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 1: wanted to be always sought approval of Maga world, but

547
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 1: they've always been in the It's a fine line, right,

548
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 1: They're a little bit myke canaries in the coal mine.

549
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,959
Speaker 1: If they start to seek distance from Trump on something

550
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 1: tells me that we might be seeing more Republicans abandonship.

551
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 1: But that's the big short term development. To keep an

552
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 1: eye on how Trump mishandles, frankly, the fallout from this election.

553
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 1: He's already flailing. He is not accepting the premise that

554
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 1: he creates this weather. And how elected Republicans walk this

555
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 1: line and deal with it. I think it's going to

556
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 1: be something to watch and certainly something I'm going to

557
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 1: keep an eye on and it could be in the

558
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 1: words Vailey Barber, good gets better, bad gets worse. Democrats

559
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 1: had a good night and they appeared they could be

560
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 1: This could improve candidate recruiting. They're going to suddenly have

561
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 1: Senate candidates in Alaska and in Kansas and in places

562
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 1: they've been trying to recruit because you're going to have

563
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 1: fensit or say hey, maybe this is a good year

564
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 1: to run as a Democrat in a light red state

565
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 1: like Kansas. And then on the opposite side you may

566
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 1: see bad gets worse. Republicans had a bad night. If

567
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 1: you're on the fence about seeking reelection, think Donald Trump's

568
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 1: a drag, You don't get any of the upside of

569
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 1: Trump being on the ballot. You may seek to run

570
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 1: for decide to retire instead of seek reelection, opening the

571
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 1: door for more room for a Democrat to run. So

572
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 1: this is why what happened on Tuesday night is so

573
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 1: significant and potentially such a huge game changer going into

574
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six because guess what it's I'm now in

575
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 1: the thirty to forty five percent range in my head

576
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 1: that Democrats could win control of both the House and

577
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 1: the Senate. Get it, You get an you get a

578
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 1: uneven turnout based turnout like you saw in twenty twenty

579
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 1: five on Tuesday, then you might get four Democratic Senate

580
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 1: pickups and certainly the handful of house ses that they

581
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 1: need to get that, and that would be some rebuke

582
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 1: going into twenty twenty eight. There's a reason results matter

583
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 1: more than promises, just like there's a reason in Morgan

584
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 1: and Morgan is America's largest injury law firm. For the

585
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 1: last thirty five years, they've recovered twenty five billion dollars

586
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:10,240
Speaker 1: for more than half a million clients. It includes cases

587
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,840
Speaker 1: where insurance companies offered next to nothing, just hoping to

588
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 1: get away with paying as little as possible. Morgan and

589
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 1: Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact, in Pennsylvania,

590
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 1: one client was awarded twenty six million dollars, which was

591
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 1: a staggering forty times the amount that the insurance company

592
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 1: originally offered. That original offer six hundred and fifty thousand

593
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:32,760
Speaker 1: dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty thousand dollars.

594
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 1: So with more than one thousand lawyers across the country,

595
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 1: they know how to deliver for everyday people. If you're injured,

596
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,359
Speaker 1: you need a lawyer, You need somebody to get your back.

597
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 1: Check out for the People dot Com, Slash podcast or

598
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 1: Dow Pound Law Pound five to nine Law on your

599
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 1: cell phone. And remember all law firms are not the same,

600
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 1: So check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free

601
00:34:54,239 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 1: unless they win. All right, let's do a the last

602
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 1: Chuck Ask Chuck. First question comes of George m Twin

603
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:13,240
Speaker 1: Cities Minnesota. Uh? Can you really be from both? You know? Don't?

604
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 1: Don't you have to pick one? George? Maybe the next

605
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 1: time you write in let me know what can you

606
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:21,839
Speaker 1: say twin Cities? Or are you know, do you have

607
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 1: a you know? Do you split your time between Minneapolis

608
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 1: and Saint Paul? All right, I'm just being snark. Your

609
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 1: question is, Hey, thanks for the live election cast Tuesday night.

610
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 1: Appreciate the effort you and your team went to put

611
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:35,240
Speaker 1: it all together. Yeah, you and me both. Brother Jacob

612
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,439
Speaker 1: Fry held on for a third term in Minneapolis, fending

613
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:41,360
Speaker 1: off Omar fatah uh And I'm seeing parallels with Zorn's

614
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 1: challenge to Adams and Cuomo. Curious if Zorn's political skill

615
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 1: explains the different outcomes or if the data suggests something more. Well,

616
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 1: you know, it's really interesting looking at the New York race.

617
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:54,840
Speaker 1: All right, First of all, I'm I'm gonna take a

618
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:57,839
Speaker 1: little victory lap on on the Minneapolis race, because if

619
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 1: you were watching very closely, you know, I saw the

620
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 1: ten point gap, and I thought, well, that should in

621
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:06,840
Speaker 1: my limited experience with the ranked choice voting environment that

622
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 1: we've had over the last decade or two in Alaska

623
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:11,839
Speaker 1: and Maine in particular, but in a handful of other

624
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 1: cities as well, I think San Francisco does it, Burlington,

625
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 1: Vermont does it. Obviously, we now DC's doing my my

626
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 1: home county here in Virginia has moved to frank choice

627
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 1: voting for Arlington County offices. Is that you know, Fatah

628
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 1: had a deal with the two of the other higher

629
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 1: profile candidates. They were basically going to leave Fry, you know,

630
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 1: encouraging their supporters to leave Fry off the ballot and

631
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 1: just rank those three. Well, it looks like the deal

632
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 1: didn't work, or it certainly didn't work well enough. But

633
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,399
Speaker 1: I that was one of those where I was like, oh,

634
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:51,359
Speaker 1: it looks I think Fry is going to hold on here.

635
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 1: I was. I was on the minority of that opinion

636
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 1: of our group group last night. But that's all right. Hey,

637
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 1: I was all so wrong about a few things too,

638
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna be totally be totally obnoxious in

639
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 1: that victory. Laugh. But it's fascinating to watch the spin

640
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,720
Speaker 1: with New York City. So we got just over fifty percent.

641
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 1: Is it a huge win? Or did he luck out

642
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,840
Speaker 1: from having an extraordinary flawed opponent who we got to

643
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 1: run against twice? Right? You know, Cuomo was if you

644
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 1: could have if you want to run an outsider race

645
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 1: and you want to run against the establishment, and you said,

646
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:43,319
Speaker 1: give me an opponent who oozes establishment but nobody likes,

647
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,240
Speaker 1: and you asked chat Gpt to come up with somebody,

648
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,120
Speaker 1: they would have said, hey, let me introduce you to

649
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:54,720
Speaker 1: former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. So I find myself wondering.

650
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 1: I was another thing that surprised me on Tuesday night,

651
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 1: and something that I was wrong about a week ago.

652
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:04,799
Speaker 1: I think I hinted here. I said, you know, you know,

653
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 1: why do I think, you know, why do I think

654
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 1: that Cuomo could collapse here because of where he was

655
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 1: in the ballot, and that maybe that Curtis Sleeweb was

656
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 1: he going to overperform well, then a bunch of stuff happened. Right,

657
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 1: All this late money came in for Cuomo. Bloomberg came

658
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:23,360
Speaker 1: in with the late endorsement. He spent money on Cuomo's behalf.

659
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 1: Trump comes in with the late endorsement. And I do think,

660
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 1: despite what some of the voters said to our to

661
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 1: our on the ground correspondence for our Election Night special

662
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 1: the newsgirls Mabel and Rent, despite what was said, no, no,

663
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 1: Trump doesn't tell me what to do. It's hard not

664
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 1: to conclude because, first of all, Republican voters traditionally vote

665
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 1: on election day more often, because part of it is

666
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 1: Trump is almost conditioned his base voters, you know, you

667
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:55,399
Speaker 1: should vote an election day, vote on election day, and

668
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 1: so he has more election day voters. So that last

669
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:01,920
Speaker 1: minute endorsement I think matters. So you know, Staten Island

670
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 1: goes dramatically for Cuomo. And you see SLIA was just

671
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:11,840
Speaker 1: support just collapse as it became a anti So I

672
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 1: look at the Mamdani race and it was essentially I

673
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 1: looked at it as it turned into almost like a

674
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 1: judicial retention race in Pennsylvania, up or down in Mamdani. Right,

675
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,799
Speaker 1: Cuomo was simply a vehicle for those that said no

676
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 1: to mam Donni. Right, people weren't voting for Cuomo. They

677
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:34,760
Speaker 1: were simply voting against Mamdani. Cuomo got forty one percent.

678
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 1: I don't buy that there was many positive Cuomo voters.

679
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 1: You know, Let's let's assume half of those folks were positive.

680
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 1: You know, that means about half his support was just

681
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:58,360
Speaker 1: simply anti Mom Donni. Would and this is an interesting

682
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 1: little I don't know what they answers, but would a

683
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 1: let's say the police commissioner had been on the ballot,

684
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:12,360
Speaker 1: would Mom Donnie have won? So was Mom Donnie's fifty

685
00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:16,799
Speaker 1: point six and impressive showing with a massive turnout or

686
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:19,279
Speaker 1: did the massive turnout happen because it drove some of

687
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 1: his vote, but it also drove some of the anti

688
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 1: mom Donnie vote. I think that's something that I would

689
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:28,840
Speaker 1: like almost a bit more. I want more data on

690
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 1: this one. I'd like a little bit more after action report.

691
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 1: I'd like a post election survey here on this because

692
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:40,600
Speaker 1: it is notable that Mikey Cheryl outperformed Harris in New Jersey,

693
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 1: Abigail Spamberger outperformed Harris in Virginia. Mom Donnie technically underperformed

694
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 1: Harris in New York City right now, Granted, one of

695
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 1: his chief opponents was a well known member of a

696
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:56,799
Speaker 1: prominent Democratic family, he was not on the ballot as

697
00:40:56,800 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 1: a d but obviously, you know there was plenty of

698
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 1: sort of more centrist Democrats that likely pick Cuomo. So

699
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 1: I really think if you want to believe that the

700
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:17,360
Speaker 1: progressive movement is on the march, you see, you know

701
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 1: you're going to look for a spin that shows Mamdani overperforming.

702
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 1: I think he benefited from his opponents. But you know what,

703
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:28,480
Speaker 1: So did AOC benefit from a from the rescheduling of

704
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 1: a primary and a unique period and she won and

705
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 1: beat an incumbent because hey, those were the rules of

706
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:38,240
Speaker 1: the moment. She met the moment and her primary opponent

707
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 1: didn't didn't. Is it true that it was a quirky

708
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 1: time in the election calendar that it was the only

709
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 1: time that New York had split its federal primaries from

710
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 1: its state primary, So voters probably weren't all aware that

711
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:54,759
Speaker 1: there were going to be two different primary days in

712
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 1: the same election year. Right, there was a few quirks

713
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 1: here or there that maybe under another circumstance, AOC never

714
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 1: wins a primary for the US Congress under differently. And

715
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:12,840
Speaker 1: maybe if Akim Jeffreys and Chuck Schumer weren't caught napping

716
00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:16,479
Speaker 1: when Andrew Cuomo and decided he wanted to be mayor

717
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 1: and they decided to do nothing about it, they had

718
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 1: recruited somebody a bit more viable in sort of in

719
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:27,719
Speaker 1: that wing of the party. Maybe Mam Donnie never catches fire, right,

720
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 1: So obviously I'm not gonna I kind of lean in

721
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 1: that that that Mam Donnie's actually underperforming a what a

722
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 1: broad coalition Democrat could get in New York City. But

723
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 1: I also don't want to deny that this guy is

724
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:46,839
Speaker 1: not He is an impressive political athlete. You know, I

725
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 1: love the phrase political athlete, and I think this is

726
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 1: an impressive athlete. I think he hurt himself at the

727
00:42:54,560 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 1: end by going by doing the Islam of Fabia speech.

728
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 1: I understand he felt he got baited into that conversation

729
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:08,200
Speaker 1: by by Cuomo's tactics in the last minute. And I

730
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:11,240
Speaker 1: also empathize with the fact that I think Mamdani sees

731
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 1: sees himself as the guy that's got to break the

732
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:20,839
Speaker 1: barrier to mainstream Muslim Americans into the political elite that

733
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 1: you know, I look at the campaign of the lieutenant

734
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 1: of the new lieutenant governor in Virginia, who's the first

735
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 1: ever Muslim woman to ever win statewide office anywhere in

736
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:36,359
Speaker 1: the country, and Uh has Meik Gazala Uh is her name.

737
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 1: She never wanted a debate. She kept an extraordinary low profile.

738
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 1: She took what is conventional political consultant advice on that

739
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 1: many a Muslim candidate has been told to do, which is,

740
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 1: you need to downplay any connections to Islam, you need

741
00:43:56,560 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 1: to downplay even sort of called you know, and mom

742
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:03,920
Speaker 1: Nannie didn't do that. He leaned in. And I think

743
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:09,759
Speaker 1: that that is it's simultaneously he's seen as as sort

744
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 1: of the uh, the trailblazer for Muslim Americans around the

745
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:17,280
Speaker 1: country running for office who are trying to break break

746
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:21,360
Speaker 1: into being taken seriously and getting a seat at the

747
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 1: table in the in the in the political power structure

748
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:29,280
Speaker 1: of the of America. And so he's he's been willing

749
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:31,799
Speaker 1: to sort of take this stuff on. I do think

750
00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 1: it it there are some voters that they don't want to,

751
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 1: you know, they they want to put blinders onto this. Okay,

752
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 1: I don't know how is to put it, but they

753
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 1: just do. They'll support you if you're downplaying it. Right. Look,

754
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 1: African American candidates at first were told this all the time.

755
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 1: Don't lean into the black community, you know, don't you know,

756
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 1: back off Jewish candidates back when they first started running

757
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 1: for office, you know, downplay your identity. Many a woman

758
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:03,280
Speaker 1: candidate in the early days of women breaking the glass

759
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:06,360
Speaker 1: ceiling and executive offices. Same thing. So this is not

760
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 1: a new thing. So I say this in that I

761
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:12,960
Speaker 1: think what Mom Donnie is doing for future Muslim Americans

762
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 1: running for office is going to be of help to them.

763
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 1: They will deal with less Islamophobia, less questioning of whether

764
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 1: they can win win elections. But do I think it

765
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:26,239
Speaker 1: hurt him a little bit at the end where he

766
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:28,319
Speaker 1: might have been on his way to fifty three, fifty

767
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:31,799
Speaker 1: four to fifty five, and then bringing that into the

768
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 1: message because I think there are a chunk of New

769
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:37,120
Speaker 1: York City voters who like his message but don't want

770
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:41,840
Speaker 1: him to be an international foreign policy expert, right that,

771
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:44,279
Speaker 1: no matter what his views are about foreign policy, they

772
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:46,879
Speaker 1: don't want him to use the platform of New York

773
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 1: City mayor to express them. I think there are some

774
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:52,800
Speaker 1: that want him to do that, and that's going to

775
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 1: be an interesting decision how he chooses to go about that.

776
00:45:56,160 --> 00:46:00,520
Speaker 1: How often does he use his platform to talk about

777
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:07,880
Speaker 1: issues around the world versus issues in the Five boroughs.

778
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 1: But I do think he's slightly underperformed when you look

779
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 1: at the broader democratic success throughout the night that you

780
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 1: could say and that, and again I look at it

781
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 1: as I think New York City became a mom dandi referendum,

782
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:26,960
Speaker 1: which may explain why Cuomo got as close as he

783
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 1: did with his forty one percent. All right, that's what

784
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 1: I love about this format. We get to do some nuance,

785
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 1: and I've been wanting it is hard to have that

786
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,800
Speaker 1: conversation about the New York City mayor's race without somebody

787
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 1: wanting to cherry pick something I said and weaponize it

788
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:45,640
Speaker 1: one way or the other. This is why I prefer

789
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 1: the format that we have here. It's very hard to

790
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,480
Speaker 1: do that. I'm not saying someone might not successfully try

791
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 1: to cherry pick something I said and claim I'm implying

792
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:57,440
Speaker 1: something that I'm not, but I hope I conveyed it

793
00:46:57,480 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 1: in what I was trying to get at there. All right,

794
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:03,359
Speaker 1: next question comes from a Weego New York, He goes,

795
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 1: not just Long Island anyway, I'm from. It's Jeff from

796
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:07,799
Speaker 1: a Weego New York. We'll get there in a minute,

797
00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 1: he says, really looking forward to the Orange heading to

798
00:47:10,040 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 1: Coral Gables this weekend. Yes, that is true. Hoping Mimmy

799
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:15,880
Speaker 1: gives us another chance to Syracuse it up. Like you

800
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:18,440
Speaker 1: said with Steven Jelly out, it's we'll get him next

801
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 1: to your mode. I get it. But a win over

802
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:22,799
Speaker 1: the you would definitely help fran Brown's recruiting pitch. What's

803
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:25,000
Speaker 1: your take on at least Stephonic potentially running for New

804
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:27,440
Speaker 1: York governor. New York City's mayoral race is grabbing all

805
00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:29,480
Speaker 1: the headlines, but upstate voters like me are eager for

806
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 1: a leader who prioritize it the whole state, not just

807
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:36,880
Speaker 1: Long Island. Jeff from a Weego New York. Look I

808
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:42,360
Speaker 1: I before Tuesday night, Jeff, I would have said, I

809
00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 1: think Kathy Holkle is one of the more vulnerable democratic

810
00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:49,400
Speaker 1: incumbents in the country and governors. Now, I'll tell you this,

811
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:52,320
Speaker 1: I think the most difficult thing to do is to

812
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:55,759
Speaker 1: outsit incumbent governor in politics. The only thing more difficult

813
00:47:55,800 --> 00:48:00,120
Speaker 1: is to an outstate sitting president. Now, when you're seeking

814
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 1: a third term, I think all bets are off when

815
00:48:02,320 --> 00:48:05,439
Speaker 1: it comes to governorships, but when you're seeking a full

816
00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:07,799
Speaker 1: second term, and in this case, that's kind of what

817
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:11,279
Speaker 1: she's doing. I think she's going to be tough to beat.

818
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 1: Now A lot to me, A lot's going to be

819
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:18,360
Speaker 1: if how far to the left does Hokal have to

820
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 1: run to survive her primary? Right, she's going to get primary,

821
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:25,959
Speaker 1: and what is she I think she ends up winning

822
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:27,879
Speaker 1: her primary. I don't. I don't buy that she can

823
00:48:27,880 --> 00:48:31,360
Speaker 1: get knocked off because you know, I'm old enough to

824
00:48:31,400 --> 00:48:35,400
Speaker 1: remember when Kathy Hokel was a surprise victor in upstate

825
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 1: New York in a special election for Congress. So I

826
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:42,040
Speaker 1: think she's I think the fact that she's not a

827
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:45,880
Speaker 1: New York City Democrat is a benefit to her potentially.

828
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 1: But before Tuesday night, I was on the I think

829
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:54,960
Speaker 1: Stephanic is going to be very competitive here. I given

830
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:58,319
Speaker 1: what we saw around the country. I am I am.

831
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 1: I am not at all bullish on any reply. I mean,

832
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:03,239
Speaker 1: you know, bring back George Pataki. And I don't know

833
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:06,799
Speaker 1: if this could go well for Republicans in New York.

834
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be tough again. I

835
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:15,360
Speaker 1: go back to, you know, can Stephanic get enough distance

836
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 1: for Trump? Can she? Can she sort of pivot back

837
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:22,719
Speaker 1: to who she was before Trump, right when she was

838
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:28,160
Speaker 1: that sort of very more traditional New York Republican that was,

839
00:49:28,719 --> 00:49:31,120
Speaker 1: you know, a bit more moderate and cultural issues, more

840
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:33,600
Speaker 1: on the fiscally conservative side, you know, very much the

841
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:39,440
Speaker 1: George Patacki model or the Alda Motto model of Republicans

842
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:43,440
Speaker 1: in New York. And I think that when she's not

843
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:48,040
Speaker 1: you know, it's funny about Stephanic. I think she does magataribly.

844
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:53,280
Speaker 1: I don't think her pivot to Trump has been very credible.

845
00:49:57,239 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 1: I have gotten the sense that she's slowly trying to

846
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:04,360
Speaker 1: get back to her old persona. I think she realized

847
00:50:04,480 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 1: that what sucking up to Trump gets her. She got

848
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 1: treated like garbage when it came to this appointment and

849
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 1: then non appointment to the UN. I think she feels

850
00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 1: pretty pretty pretty put upon in some form or another,

851
00:50:23,280 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 1: you know, certainly marginalized unfairly. I think, you know, Trump

852
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:30,640
Speaker 1: promised her her her leadership position back, and of course

853
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 1: Mike Johnson goes what leadership position, so that disappeared right.

854
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:41,520
Speaker 1: So again, I I just think that it may be

855
00:50:41,680 --> 00:50:45,160
Speaker 1: that their political weather is just too blue for any

856
00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 1: Republican to win. But a lot of this do I

857
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:54,719
Speaker 1: I personally think Lawler would be a stronger candidate than Stephanic.

858
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:58,239
Speaker 1: I think Lawler has has sort of cleaner uh, sort

859
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:01,880
Speaker 1: of slightly more into a Republican hands, meaning he's not

860
00:51:02,040 --> 00:51:06,480
Speaker 1: considered very trumpy and has a bit more credibility on

861
00:51:06,640 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 1: not being you know, as trumpy is Stephanic, which is,

862
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 1: you know, you got to sort of walk that line,

863
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:14,400
Speaker 1: I think in order to get the base not to

864
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:17,960
Speaker 1: reject you, but at the same time become appealing to

865
00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:23,920
Speaker 1: swing voters. So I think this primary, what does Hokle

866
00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:25,879
Speaker 1: look like? Out of this primary? How far are the left?

867
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 1: Does sift to move? And you know she's going to

868
00:51:28,320 --> 00:51:31,359
Speaker 1: be feeling, you know, she's going to find herself very

869
00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:33,360
Speaker 1: involved in New York City politics because some of the

870
00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:36,279
Speaker 1: things Mam Donnie would like to get done, he's got

871
00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:39,279
Speaker 1: to do through the state. So it's going to means

872
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:41,439
Speaker 1: he's going to be putting pressure on her. That could

873
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:43,680
Speaker 1: put pressure on her in a primary that could you know.

874
00:51:44,239 --> 00:51:48,720
Speaker 1: So I think there's a lot of state and city

875
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:52,520
Speaker 1: politics to play out before we can truly assess how

876
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:55,719
Speaker 1: vulnerable Hulkal could be in a general election. But I

877
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 1: will tell you this, if this is the weather we're

878
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:03,640
Speaker 1: going to have and No. Number twenty twenty six, you know,

879
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 1: I don't know if Michael Bloomberg, as a Republican again

880
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:09,919
Speaker 1: as the nominee for governor, would be able to win

881
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:20,399
Speaker 1: in an environment like this. All right. Next question comes

882
00:52:20,440 --> 00:52:23,319
Speaker 1: from Lincoln Sea out of Columbus, Ohio. He says, check,

883
00:52:23,400 --> 00:52:26,799
Speaker 1: not only would I stay on a thirteenth floor, my

884
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:30,040
Speaker 1: wife and I actually got married on Friday the thirteenth.

885
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:32,520
Speaker 1: How about that? This is a throwback to what I

886
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:34,759
Speaker 1: said my daughter. I don't think it's ever going to

887
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:36,840
Speaker 1: stay on the thirteenth floor of any hotel ever. Again,

888
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:39,120
Speaker 1: I may displaced to England or in the land of

889
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:43,520
Speaker 1: the Ohio State buckeyesco Michigan. And as a political junkie,

890
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:46,280
Speaker 1: I've always believed presidents should be judged by the hindsight

891
00:52:46,320 --> 00:52:49,239
Speaker 1: of history. Sometimes thirty, forty, even fifty years later, well

892
00:52:49,239 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 1: that's more about policy than norm breaking. I still find

893
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:54,600
Speaker 1: myself sparring with folks convinced that the most recent administration

894
00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:56,360
Speaker 1: is either the best or the worst to effort in

895
00:52:56,400 --> 00:53:01,440
Speaker 1: my onto something here best Lincoln Sea. I love that

896
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:05,960
Speaker 1: your name is Lincoln. We're asking about presidents. You're in

897
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 1: a state capital named after a Spanish explorer. Anyway, it's

898
00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:18,799
Speaker 1: a very full circle here. Look, I don't I think

899
00:53:18,840 --> 00:53:21,760
Speaker 1: I was. I mean, let's just take Harry Truman. The best,

900
00:53:22,400 --> 00:53:25,200
Speaker 1: the best example to defend your point of view here

901
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:28,200
Speaker 1: is Harry Truman. Harry Truman was very unpopular when he

902
00:53:28,280 --> 00:53:32,760
Speaker 1: left office. One of the reasons Eisenhower couldn't get convinced

903
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:34,800
Speaker 1: to run as a Democrat instead ran as a Republican.

904
00:53:34,880 --> 00:53:37,879
Speaker 1: In part, you could argue, is because Truman was unpopular

905
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 1: and he was going to probably have a harder time.

906
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 1: One of the reasons Truman wanted Eisenhowers because a dow

907
00:53:43,040 --> 00:53:46,480
Speaker 1: Democrats were going to have a hard hard time winning

908
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:53,160
Speaker 1: the fifty two election. But you know, a Truman, you know,

909
00:53:53,200 --> 00:53:56,239
Speaker 1: and you know it's funny. It does feel as if

910
00:53:56,280 --> 00:53:58,640
Speaker 1: the farther away we get from a president, the more

911
00:53:59,719 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 1: they're foreign policy becomes their defining legacy more than it

912
00:54:04,120 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 1: is their domestic policy or there or you get this right,

913
00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:12,239
Speaker 1: you get a foreign policy plus their political success or failure. Right,

914
00:54:12,280 --> 00:54:16,279
Speaker 1: that becomes so with Harry Truman, Right, there's this he

915
00:54:16,360 --> 00:54:21,400
Speaker 1: made tough. He made a tough decision and a tough spot.

916
00:54:21,560 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 1: You know he was He showed some steely spine, and

917
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 1: he showed how you run against a Congress that's against

918
00:54:29,000 --> 00:54:31,600
Speaker 1: you in forty eight, right. You know. So he's got

919
00:54:31,640 --> 00:54:36,160
Speaker 1: both a political legacy that many a Democrat loves to

920
00:54:36,200 --> 00:54:39,800
Speaker 1: talk about historically, and he's got a foreign policy legacy

921
00:54:39,840 --> 00:54:46,440
Speaker 1: that people like Ronald Reagan helped restore Truman's place in

922
00:54:47,160 --> 00:54:50,640
Speaker 1: American history by because there was a long time particularly Republicans.

923
00:54:51,000 --> 00:54:55,040
Speaker 1: You know, Truman was a punching bag for Republicans in

924
00:54:55,080 --> 00:54:58,439
Speaker 1: the fifties and sixties, and it was Reagan that sort

925
00:54:58,480 --> 00:55:02,680
Speaker 1: of started to, uh refer to Truman more as a

926
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:05,720
Speaker 1: as a as a president that you know, we should

927
00:55:06,440 --> 00:55:08,919
Speaker 1: be proud of and look up to. It. It really sort

928
00:55:08,920 --> 00:55:12,760
Speaker 1: of how it you know, maybe it's how he started

929
00:55:12,800 --> 00:55:16,800
Speaker 1: to appeal to older, older Reagan that older Democrats that

930
00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:20,399
Speaker 1: would later become quote unquote Reagan Democrats. But the point

931
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:23,000
Speaker 1: is you throw that in there. Reagan sort of revised

932
00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:25,239
Speaker 1: Truman in a positive way. Then you had the David

933
00:55:25,320 --> 00:55:29,640
Speaker 1: McCullough biography that hit that really sort of redefined and

934
00:55:30,200 --> 00:55:33,480
Speaker 1: certainly put Truman in a better light. So the point

935
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:35,720
Speaker 1: is is that Truman is is one of the great examples.

936
00:55:35,800 --> 00:55:39,520
Speaker 1: Eisenhower is another one. His presidency, you know, in the

937
00:55:39,560 --> 00:55:43,960
Speaker 1: near term, was considered you a little mah. I I

938
00:55:44,000 --> 00:55:48,480
Speaker 1: certainly think that looking back, he had a it was

939
00:55:48,800 --> 00:55:51,719
Speaker 1: you got to you know, his presidency is is is

940
00:55:51,760 --> 00:55:55,839
Speaker 1: a bit underrated in hindsight, and I think now he's

941
00:55:55,880 --> 00:55:59,880
Speaker 1: starting to get his due. But I do think you

942
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:02,759
Speaker 1: kind of I mean, here's the reality what we're really

943
00:56:02,800 --> 00:56:06,120
Speaker 1: saying here. Let's say it this way. You don't really

944
00:56:06,200 --> 00:56:08,560
Speaker 1: know how good or bad a president was until the

945
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:12,480
Speaker 1: president dies. Till that president dies and we get the

946
00:56:12,560 --> 00:56:15,560
Speaker 1: truth and you get people feeling like they can speak freely,

947
00:56:15,840 --> 00:56:18,520
Speaker 1: and you get access to archives and you start to

948
00:56:19,080 --> 00:56:21,279
Speaker 1: because sometimes you can't paint the full picture because we

949
00:56:21,280 --> 00:56:25,600
Speaker 1: don't have all the information. And then over time more

950
00:56:25,640 --> 00:56:28,880
Speaker 1: of that information comes out, right, more papers get revealed,

951
00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:34,400
Speaker 1: more letters, more family memoirs, things like that. So yes,

952
00:56:34,520 --> 00:56:38,600
Speaker 1: I mean, shoot, look at LBJ. Right, we've been where

953
00:56:38,640 --> 00:56:41,759
Speaker 1: you know, I think the Vietnam legacy is still a

954
00:56:41,800 --> 00:56:46,040
Speaker 1: pretty big fat demerit on his presidency, but his domestic

955
00:56:46,120 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 1: legacy is starting to is seen in a more positive

956
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:56,000
Speaker 1: light and is starting to overtake the Vietnam legacy and

957
00:56:56,000 --> 00:56:59,000
Speaker 1: putting him even Nixon has gone through ups and downs

958
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:02,080
Speaker 1: of his perception over the years. You know, in the

959
00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:05,000
Speaker 1: nineties it started to weirdly improve, you know, over time.

960
00:57:05,080 --> 00:57:08,680
Speaker 1: Now I think it's gone downward. How about George W. Bush,

961
00:57:09,120 --> 00:57:13,200
Speaker 1: who were Donald Trump has both hurt his legacy and

962
00:57:13,280 --> 00:57:17,680
Speaker 1: helped his legacy. Right, So a Dick Cheney talk about

963
00:57:17,720 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 1: a guy who was viewed one way as vice president

964
00:57:20,120 --> 00:57:24,920
Speaker 1: and has been remembered in recent death another way. So

965
00:57:25,600 --> 00:57:29,960
Speaker 1: it is It's why I talk about I can't wait

966
00:57:29,960 --> 00:57:32,360
Speaker 1: to find out and I'll be dead and gone unfortunately,

967
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:34,280
Speaker 1: but I can't wait to find out what people say

968
00:57:34,280 --> 00:57:37,320
Speaker 1: about this era fifty years from now, that's for sure.

969
00:57:38,360 --> 00:57:42,040
Speaker 1: All right, next question, Let's see where am I on

970
00:57:42,160 --> 00:57:43,760
Speaker 1: time here? So I'm going to make this the last question.

971
00:57:45,240 --> 00:57:47,480
Speaker 1: I'm a lifelong end D fan, but I have been

972
00:57:47,520 --> 00:57:50,080
Speaker 1: listening to your podcasts and found myself rooting and following you.

973
00:57:50,200 --> 00:57:52,360
Speaker 1: M thank you. Part of it is because you need

974
00:57:52,360 --> 00:57:54,480
Speaker 1: Miami succeed in order to make your loss look good

975
00:57:54,520 --> 00:57:57,200
Speaker 1: for the college football playoff domer. You know, I see

976
00:57:57,240 --> 00:58:00,600
Speaker 1: you anyway sincere sympathies on the last game. I appreciate it.

977
00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:02,400
Speaker 1: I enjoy your take on current events in DC and

978
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:05,320
Speaker 1: across the country in a grew with most everything you

979
00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:09,040
Speaker 1: and your guests suggest very balanced. Michel Meet the Press

980
00:58:09,080 --> 00:58:13,080
Speaker 1: recently moved from Southern Indiana, go IU to West Bend, Wisconsin.

981
00:58:13,200 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 1: Go back, Go and listen to your podcast the entire

982
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:18,040
Speaker 1: eight hour drive. Well, if you're lucky enough, maybe it's

983
00:58:18,040 --> 00:58:21,280
Speaker 1: only one podcast parade hours, so I haven't totally roguified yet. Right.

984
00:58:22,880 --> 00:58:24,960
Speaker 1: That's awesome and it helped me distract me from the

985
00:58:24,960 --> 00:58:28,520
Speaker 1: two cats in cages that never stopped owling. That's hilarious. Question.

986
00:58:28,560 --> 00:58:30,320
Speaker 1: What do you think Ronald Reagan would think about Trump?

987
00:58:31,240 --> 00:58:35,440
Speaker 1: And this comes from Sherry's Sherry, by the way, you

988
00:58:35,480 --> 00:58:37,520
Speaker 1: spell your name the same way my mother spells her name.

989
00:58:37,560 --> 00:58:40,200
Speaker 1: She is a Sherry, So that's a c CHR. I

990
00:58:40,200 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 1: I don't see that very often, so hey, mom, look

991
00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:50,320
Speaker 1: there's another Sherry that spells her name the same way. Well,

992
00:58:50,360 --> 00:58:53,040
Speaker 1: if you ask Roger Stone what Ronald Reagan would would

993
00:58:53,040 --> 00:58:56,520
Speaker 1: think of Trump? I think he would say that Reagan

994
00:58:57,720 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 1: sort of liked Trump, but you know, was been mused

995
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:04,400
Speaker 1: by him a little bit. And you've got to remember

996
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:09,080
Speaker 1: what Reagan's you know, interactions with Trump were pretty minimal.

997
00:59:11,720 --> 00:59:14,760
Speaker 1: It was it is. I have a great origin story

998
00:59:15,040 --> 00:59:18,160
Speaker 1: about Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan that I got from

999
00:59:18,200 --> 00:59:20,800
Speaker 1: Roger Stone, so I'll share it with you here. That's

1000
00:59:20,800 --> 00:59:26,720
Speaker 1: why this is a perfect last question. So Roger Stone

1001
00:59:26,840 --> 00:59:30,840
Speaker 1: is a young operative in seventy eight, seventy nine, and

1002
00:59:31,040 --> 00:59:37,160
Speaker 1: he is looking for he is working for Reagan. He's

1003
00:59:37,720 --> 00:59:40,560
Speaker 1: and he's in charge of New York for Reagan. All right,

1004
00:59:40,640 --> 00:59:43,840
Speaker 1: he's the New York And this isn't a primary. And

1005
00:59:44,480 --> 00:59:46,200
Speaker 1: you know, at the time, it was thought they were

1006
00:59:46,240 --> 00:59:49,440
Speaker 1: really trying to play catch up with George H. W. Bush,

1007
00:59:49,680 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 1: who was a financial juggernaut. He had had a much

1008
00:59:52,920 --> 00:59:57,000
Speaker 1: better fundraising network going into nineteen eighty arguably than Ronald

1009
00:59:57,080 --> 01:00:01,080
Speaker 1: Reagan did. So Roger Stone need had a finance chair

1010
01:00:01,600 --> 01:00:04,280
Speaker 1: for the New York New York Republicans for Reagan or

1011
01:00:04,280 --> 01:00:06,080
Speaker 1: New York for Reagan, whatever they were going to call

1012
01:00:06,120 --> 01:00:12,240
Speaker 1: their organization. And so obviously one of Reagan's big supporters

1013
01:00:12,360 --> 01:00:18,680
Speaker 1: was Roy Cohne. So and you know, look, everybody you know,

1014
01:00:18,960 --> 01:00:21,880
Speaker 1: Roy Cohne was very connected in Hollywood, Reagan being a

1015
01:00:21,920 --> 01:00:25,760
Speaker 1: Hollywood guy. So that's how Cone got into the world

1016
01:00:25,760 --> 01:00:28,720
Speaker 1: of Reagan and Nixon al and Cohne was always sort

1017
01:00:28,760 --> 01:00:30,760
Speaker 1: of part of that wing, part of, you know, wherever

1018
01:00:30,760 --> 01:00:35,400
Speaker 1: the Republican Party was going. And so Roger Stone meets

1019
01:00:35,400 --> 01:00:37,360
Speaker 1: with Cohane and he tells him, hey, I need a

1020
01:00:37,400 --> 01:00:40,520
Speaker 1: finance director for Reagan, and he says, you need Donald Trump.

1021
01:00:42,800 --> 01:00:46,440
Speaker 1: So but you need to first meet with Fred Trump,

1022
01:00:46,680 --> 01:00:50,240
Speaker 1: that was Donald's father. So again, this is a story

1023
01:00:50,360 --> 01:00:53,040
Speaker 1: Rogerstone told me this was for a book interview I

1024
01:00:53,120 --> 01:00:56,560
Speaker 1: did that I ended up not using just full disclosure

1025
01:00:57,240 --> 01:01:06,280
Speaker 1: on that. So anyway, so Stone, this is a very

1026
01:01:06,280 --> 01:01:09,400
Speaker 1: interesting story. Stone goes to meet with Fred Trump and

1027
01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:11,480
Speaker 1: he walks into Fred Trump's office and he sees all

1028
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:13,320
Speaker 1: these photos on the wall. Right, it's very much like

1029
01:01:13,440 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. Donald Trump, you know, wherever he is, any

1030
01:01:17,200 --> 01:01:19,320
Speaker 1: office he has has photos of Donald Trump and other

1031
01:01:19,560 --> 01:01:22,600
Speaker 1: and famous people. And Fred Trump was the same way.

1032
01:01:22,640 --> 01:01:24,520
Speaker 1: And at the time it was famous New York City

1033
01:01:24,560 --> 01:01:27,640
Speaker 1: people and New York City politicians. And Roger Stone said

1034
01:01:27,680 --> 01:01:29,520
Speaker 1: he walked into the office and he'd look around, and

1035
01:01:29,520 --> 01:01:33,360
Speaker 1: he saw all these pictures of Fred Trump with all

1036
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:36,080
Speaker 1: these New York City Democrats. You know, there was Fred

1037
01:01:36,080 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 1: Trump with a beam, there was Fred Trump with you know,

1038
01:01:38,840 --> 01:01:48,720
Speaker 1: all these different longtime New York Democrats, going why am

1039
01:01:48,760 --> 01:01:53,560
Speaker 1: I here? He was looking for a Republican finance director

1040
01:01:53,600 --> 01:01:57,160
Speaker 1: to support a Republican candidate for president, right, And here

1041
01:01:57,200 --> 01:01:59,840
Speaker 1: he is, you Kerry, like, what's going on here? Right?

1042
01:02:00,600 --> 01:02:03,200
Speaker 1: So he asked him and he says, mister Trump, you know,

1043
01:02:03,360 --> 01:02:07,040
Speaker 1: I see all these pictures with Democrats. And Fred Trump

1044
01:02:07,040 --> 01:02:11,720
Speaker 1: then opens his drawer again. This is a Roger Stone story.

1045
01:02:11,760 --> 01:02:16,920
Speaker 1: So you know, I'll let you decide the truthiness level

1046
01:02:16,920 --> 01:02:21,640
Speaker 1: of it. But I don't you know, when you interview

1047
01:02:21,720 --> 01:02:25,160
Speaker 1: somebody in person, you sort of you feel like, you know,

1048
01:02:25,720 --> 01:02:28,600
Speaker 1: this is the best I can do. And there's certainly enough.

1049
01:02:29,440 --> 01:02:34,040
Speaker 1: You know, the facts themselves are checkable, many of them,

1050
01:02:34,400 --> 01:02:37,320
Speaker 1: and certainly over time, I think other parts of this

1051
01:02:37,440 --> 01:02:42,160
Speaker 1: story certainly have proven to be true. So, according to Stone,

1052
01:02:42,680 --> 01:02:45,160
Speaker 1: Fred Trump opens a drawer and he pulls out a

1053
01:02:45,280 --> 01:02:50,400
Speaker 1: voided check that he had written to the John Birch Society.

1054
01:02:51,720 --> 01:02:53,360
Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe it was one hundred thousand dollars

1055
01:02:53,400 --> 01:02:55,760
Speaker 1: I think that's what Stone said to me at the time.

1056
01:02:55,800 --> 01:02:57,440
Speaker 1: Maybe it'd have been fifty thousand, who knows what the

1057
01:02:57,480 --> 01:02:59,960
Speaker 1: actual number was some at the time, a big number.

1058
01:03:00,560 --> 01:03:03,080
Speaker 1: And he's like, you know, does this convince you that

1059
01:03:03,160 --> 01:03:07,520
Speaker 1: I'm one of you? At the time, and so from there,

1060
01:03:09,200 --> 01:03:12,400
Speaker 1: Fred Trump says, Okay, I think I think Donald should

1061
01:03:12,480 --> 01:03:15,240
Speaker 1: do this. You know, essentially, in order for Donald Trump

1062
01:03:15,320 --> 01:03:18,000
Speaker 1: to be involved, you had to get Fred Trump's permission.

1063
01:03:19,320 --> 01:03:21,800
Speaker 1: Fred clears it, and Donald Trump becomes the you know,

1064
01:03:21,920 --> 01:03:26,400
Speaker 1: helps helps raise money for Donald Trump in New York essentially,

1065
01:03:26,840 --> 01:03:30,560
Speaker 1: but the relationship was essentially that right though, the way

1066
01:03:30,600 --> 01:03:35,360
Speaker 1: any president has a relationship with people who help raise money. Presidents,

1067
01:03:35,400 --> 01:03:37,440
Speaker 1: you know, you have to remember to know their name.

1068
01:03:37,600 --> 01:03:42,280
Speaker 1: You don't always really know them that well. You know.

1069
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:44,880
Speaker 1: I think it's really hard to know what Reagan would

1070
01:03:44,880 --> 01:03:47,960
Speaker 1: have thought of him. I know what Nancy Reagan. I

1071
01:03:47,960 --> 01:03:49,640
Speaker 1: have a feeling I know what Nancy Reagan would have

1072
01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:50,840
Speaker 1: thought of him. I don't think he would have thought

1073
01:03:50,920 --> 01:03:55,600
Speaker 1: much of him, and I certainly don't think Jim Baker

1074
01:03:55,720 --> 01:03:57,560
Speaker 1: would have thought much of him. You know, there was

1075
01:03:57,600 --> 01:04:00,440
Speaker 1: a part of Trump that was that fell. It was

1076
01:04:00,480 --> 01:04:06,160
Speaker 1: a little it was Reagan very much is a guy

1077
01:04:06,200 --> 01:04:09,840
Speaker 1: who felt comfortable in a white tie, and Donald Trump

1078
01:04:10,040 --> 01:04:13,720
Speaker 1: was sort of it's another way to put it new money.

1079
01:04:14,680 --> 01:04:16,560
Speaker 1: I'll just leave it at that. I'll let you imply

1080
01:04:16,680 --> 01:04:18,240
Speaker 1: what that is. But I think you know where I'm

1081
01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:20,560
Speaker 1: going here. So I don't want to say it was

1082
01:04:20,600 --> 01:04:25,640
Speaker 1: oil and water. But I certainly, you know, the character

1083
01:04:25,720 --> 01:04:29,120
Speaker 1: stuff I think would bother Reagan a lot more than

1084
01:04:29,160 --> 01:04:33,880
Speaker 1: people understand do. I think that there was a there

1085
01:04:33,920 --> 01:04:41,439
Speaker 1: maybe their belief in that somehow you sort of lean

1086
01:04:41,520 --> 01:04:44,840
Speaker 1: in a little bit, you know, you steffing up, You

1087
01:04:45,240 --> 01:04:48,320
Speaker 1: maybe push the envelope every now and then, uh, in

1088
01:04:48,440 --> 01:04:51,480
Speaker 1: order to make a point. You know, maybe you exert

1089
01:04:51,520 --> 01:04:54,320
Speaker 1: some power you may or may not have. You make

1090
01:04:54,360 --> 01:04:56,320
Speaker 1: a threat that you're not really going to carry through,

1091
01:04:56,320 --> 01:05:02,000
Speaker 1: but you go ahead and make the threat. So certainly

1092
01:05:02,000 --> 01:05:06,800
Speaker 1: you might say there's some stylistic similarities that Reagan might

1093
01:05:06,840 --> 01:05:11,160
Speaker 1: have been okay with. But I you know, I think

1094
01:05:11,200 --> 01:05:15,680
Speaker 1: back to an anecdote in Jimmy Carter's book on his Diaries,

1095
01:05:15,800 --> 01:05:20,240
Speaker 1: which I think is the greatest presidential memoir I've ever read,

1096
01:05:20,280 --> 01:05:23,400
Speaker 1: because it was it was done. It was his diaries

1097
01:05:23,440 --> 01:05:27,760
Speaker 1: with then notes later on his and one of them

1098
01:05:27,840 --> 01:05:31,880
Speaker 1: was how the relationship Reagan and Carter actually had In

1099
01:05:31,960 --> 01:05:35,200
Speaker 1: seventy seven and seventy eight, Carter knew Reagan was his

1100
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:38,560
Speaker 1: likely opponent. In eighty we were in the middle of

1101
01:05:38,560 --> 01:05:43,000
Speaker 1: the Panama Canal debate at the time. Carter was going

1102
01:05:43,040 --> 01:05:44,760
Speaker 1: to do something. He said, Hey, why don't we give

1103
01:05:44,800 --> 01:05:47,680
Speaker 1: Reagan a heads up so before he spouts off, he

1104
01:05:47,720 --> 01:05:50,680
Speaker 1: at least knows what I'm going to do. And that

1105
01:05:50,840 --> 01:05:53,160
Speaker 1: is what kind of like that. That was sort of

1106
01:05:53,200 --> 01:05:56,200
Speaker 1: the cordiality that existed between the two parties. And here

1107
01:05:56,240 --> 01:06:00,280
Speaker 1: was Reagan not even that there was a professional relationship

1108
01:06:00,440 --> 01:06:04,720
Speaker 1: between President Jimmy Carter and the former governor of California

1109
01:06:04,760 --> 01:06:07,200
Speaker 1: who was his likely opponent. But there was a sense that,

1110
01:06:07,440 --> 01:06:10,160
Speaker 1: you know, he ought to be we ought to we know,

1111
01:06:10,200 --> 01:06:14,320
Speaker 1: he's a big advocate of not getting you know, of

1112
01:06:14,360 --> 01:06:16,760
Speaker 1: not letting go of the canal. Let's let him know

1113
01:06:16,840 --> 01:06:22,200
Speaker 1: what I'm doing here, So I really, you know, and

1114
01:06:22,240 --> 01:06:24,080
Speaker 1: maybe i'm and I think we all do this with

1115
01:06:24,200 --> 01:06:26,440
Speaker 1: people that are no longer alive. We'd like to think.

1116
01:06:27,320 --> 01:06:30,120
Speaker 1: I just have a feeling Reagan wouldn't be a big

1117
01:06:30,120 --> 01:06:33,160
Speaker 1: fan of the Trump character, even if he didn't mind

1118
01:06:33,680 --> 01:06:37,120
Speaker 1: some of the policies. All Right, that was a longer

1119
01:06:37,160 --> 01:06:39,920
Speaker 1: story than I planned. So I'm going to do a

1120
01:06:39,920 --> 01:06:42,080
Speaker 1: a I apologize here because I don't like to go

1121
01:06:42,160 --> 01:06:44,000
Speaker 1: that long. Unless you're on the eight hour drive with

1122
01:06:44,040 --> 01:06:46,920
Speaker 1: two howling cats. Then I'm not going to apologize be

1123
01:06:47,000 --> 01:06:49,280
Speaker 1: helpful here. But let's get in a little bit. It's

1124
01:06:49,320 --> 01:06:53,680
Speaker 1: homecoming weekend, Miami's you know. Look, there's a part of

1125
01:06:53,680 --> 01:06:57,160
Speaker 1: me that says, Miami, we should feel disrespected by the

1126
01:06:57,960 --> 01:07:03,200
Speaker 1: ESPN College then controlled College Football Committee. Remember this is

1127
01:07:03,240 --> 01:07:06,600
Speaker 1: the ESPN Invitational, they own, they control the college football playoff.

1128
01:07:07,280 --> 01:07:09,600
Speaker 1: So I don't accept the premise that this is some

1129
01:07:09,640 --> 01:07:14,440
Speaker 1: sort of totally fair situation. Right, the SEC is going

1130
01:07:14,480 --> 01:07:16,560
Speaker 1: to get every benefit of it out. Notre Dame is

1131
01:07:16,600 --> 01:07:20,080
Speaker 1: going to get every benefited out. For whatever reason, even

1132
01:07:20,080 --> 01:07:24,560
Speaker 1: though the ACC is in business with ESPN, the ACC

1133
01:07:24,800 --> 01:07:27,040
Speaker 1: does not have a business partner that treats them fairly.

1134
01:07:27,640 --> 01:07:32,439
Speaker 1: And why the ACC has not been tougher on how

1135
01:07:32,680 --> 01:07:36,680
Speaker 1: ESPN mistreats their business partner here they're in business together.

1136
01:07:37,200 --> 01:07:41,280
Speaker 1: I think the ACC Commissioner is two week in challenging

1137
01:07:42,120 --> 01:07:49,600
Speaker 1: the way ESPN this is the ACC mistreats it treats

1138
01:07:49,600 --> 01:07:53,840
Speaker 1: it like a second class business partner. Again, I don't

1139
01:07:53,840 --> 01:07:56,560
Speaker 1: know why anybody would get into business with ESPN and

1140
01:07:56,600 --> 01:08:00,480
Speaker 1: college football during this SEC period because and has made

1141
01:08:00,520 --> 01:08:03,280
Speaker 1: the decision we are not going to prioritize anything else

1142
01:08:03,400 --> 01:08:05,800
Speaker 1: of the ACC. In fact, I learned a little nugget

1143
01:08:06,560 --> 01:08:10,040
Speaker 1: in Dallas from a pretty well connected source about how

1144
01:08:10,640 --> 01:08:14,080
Speaker 1: every week the Commissioner of the SEC, and I actually think,

1145
01:08:14,480 --> 01:08:16,439
Speaker 1: you know, this is his job. I don't know why

1146
01:08:16,479 --> 01:08:19,040
Speaker 1: the AEC commissioner is. Every week, the Commissioner of the

1147
01:08:19,080 --> 01:08:23,439
Speaker 1: SEC lobbies ESPN to make sure Chris Fowler and Kirk

1148
01:08:23,479 --> 01:08:27,240
Speaker 1: kirb Street are calling an SEC game, not an ACC

1149
01:08:27,280 --> 01:08:31,160
Speaker 1: game or a Big twelve game. And anytime he gets

1150
01:08:31,200 --> 01:08:35,080
Speaker 1: a whiff that they might go and make their and

1151
01:08:35,120 --> 01:08:38,320
Speaker 1: send their premier broadcast team to a game that does

1152
01:08:38,360 --> 01:08:42,200
Speaker 1: not feature an SEC team, Greg sank throws a conniption fit,

1153
01:08:42,880 --> 01:08:46,040
Speaker 1: and he's constantly putting pressure on ESPN that if you

1154
01:08:46,080 --> 01:08:48,559
Speaker 1: want to be in business with the SEC, you have

1155
01:08:48,640 --> 01:08:53,479
Speaker 1: to prioritize the SEC and screw your other business partners

1156
01:08:53,600 --> 01:08:58,200
Speaker 1: in the ACC and Big twelve. So again, very well

1157
01:08:58,560 --> 01:09:02,719
Speaker 1: connected source on this, this happens almost weekly that Greg

1158
01:09:02,760 --> 01:09:07,200
Speaker 1: Sankee pressures ESPN executives constantly in trying to make sure

1159
01:09:07,640 --> 01:09:12,760
Speaker 1: SEC games are treated differently in ACC. So my point is, yes,

1160
01:09:12,920 --> 01:09:15,160
Speaker 1: I still have that chip on my shoulder, and yes,

1161
01:09:15,680 --> 01:09:19,880
Speaker 1: there's no doubt in my mind that the ESPN Invitational

1162
01:09:19,920 --> 01:09:23,280
Speaker 1: Committee went out of their way to totally you know,

1163
01:09:24,280 --> 01:09:26,880
Speaker 1: I think mystery. There is no way Alabama or nd

1164
01:09:27,040 --> 01:09:30,600
Speaker 1: get dropped from two to eighteen with two loss and

1165
01:09:30,600 --> 01:09:35,800
Speaker 1: they're losing two out of three. That quickly that said, look,

1166
01:09:35,960 --> 01:09:38,679
Speaker 1: it's not as if Miami didn't know what the uneven

1167
01:09:38,760 --> 01:09:40,800
Speaker 1: what the unfair rules were going to be that you

1168
01:09:40,840 --> 01:09:42,880
Speaker 1: cannot get You cannot be in the ACC and have

1169
01:09:42,920 --> 01:09:45,479
Speaker 1: two losses and expect to get in the College Football Playoff.

1170
01:09:45,520 --> 01:09:46,840
Speaker 1: You can be in the SEC and do that. You

1171
01:09:46,840 --> 01:09:48,559
Speaker 1: can be Notre Dame and do that. You're not going

1172
01:09:48,600 --> 01:09:50,439
Speaker 1: to be allowed to do that in the ACC because

1173
01:09:51,000 --> 01:09:54,479
Speaker 1: they have arbitrary They have arbitrary rules of how this

1174
01:09:54,560 --> 01:09:56,519
Speaker 1: works because Greg Shanky is going to make a phone

1175
01:09:56,560 --> 01:09:58,360
Speaker 1: call and they don't want to deal with it. So

1176
01:09:59,000 --> 01:10:01,439
Speaker 1: let's realize that that that's the rules of the game.

1177
01:10:01,640 --> 01:10:05,760
Speaker 1: And I understood that going in, which is why I'm

1178
01:10:05,800 --> 01:10:09,519
Speaker 1: angrier at a football team not prepared to win a

1179
01:10:09,560 --> 01:10:15,840
Speaker 1: game knowing that the season was on the line. So look,

1180
01:10:16,000 --> 01:10:18,120
Speaker 1: I want Miamian win every game. I hope they can

1181
01:10:18,160 --> 01:10:21,559
Speaker 1: get their heads together. I think this is a huge

1182
01:10:21,600 --> 01:10:26,120
Speaker 1: test for this coaching staff. If they can't finish the

1183
01:10:26,160 --> 01:10:30,400
Speaker 1: season and run the table here, then you have to

1184
01:10:30,439 --> 01:10:33,040
Speaker 1: wonder if they've lost the team. Again. There is not

1185
01:10:33,120 --> 01:10:35,120
Speaker 1: a single team they've played where they have less talent,

1186
01:10:35,960 --> 01:10:37,840
Speaker 1: but there are plenty of teams that they've played where

1187
01:10:37,880 --> 01:10:41,600
Speaker 1: they're getting out coached and out prepared. And that's the problem,

1188
01:10:42,040 --> 01:10:45,960
Speaker 1: and that's it. I Look, do I think Stracuse with

1189
01:10:45,960 --> 01:10:48,639
Speaker 1: Steve Angelly would be giving Miami? I would have me nervous,

1190
01:10:48,640 --> 01:10:53,439
Speaker 1: it would, I am, But I have to tell you

1191
01:10:53,479 --> 01:10:55,080
Speaker 1: I would not. This is not a week I would

1192
01:10:55,080 --> 01:10:58,599
Speaker 1: bet on either Syracuse. No outcome would surprise me. If

1193
01:10:58,640 --> 01:11:00,599
Speaker 1: you told me Mimi had to sleep while one by

1194
01:11:00,640 --> 01:11:03,760
Speaker 1: ten because half the team's just not that into it

1195
01:11:03,800 --> 01:11:06,960
Speaker 1: and they realized that that the goals of the season

1196
01:11:07,000 --> 01:11:10,760
Speaker 1: are over, that wouldn't surprise me. Or if or if

1197
01:11:10,760 --> 01:11:15,400
Speaker 1: Mimmy put up a sixty burger and suddenly woke up

1198
01:11:15,920 --> 01:11:18,400
Speaker 1: and decided, Hey, we're going to make this really difficult

1199
01:11:18,439 --> 01:11:21,640
Speaker 1: for the ESPN executives when we're sitting at ten and

1200
01:11:21,680 --> 01:11:24,880
Speaker 1: two and they've got to explain why they're picking Notre

1201
01:11:25,000 --> 01:11:28,200
Speaker 1: Dame ahead of Miami for the college football playoffs. So,

1202
01:11:29,920 --> 01:11:32,439
Speaker 1: like I said, I certainly still have a chip about

1203
01:11:32,439 --> 01:11:37,680
Speaker 1: all this in different ways. Look quick, you know this

1204
01:11:37,720 --> 01:11:41,960
Speaker 1: is not the not the best college football weekend, but

1205
01:11:42,160 --> 01:11:44,000
Speaker 1: I think there's a few it should have been. Right

1206
01:11:44,120 --> 01:11:47,400
Speaker 1: LSU Alabama when the season started looked like it was

1207
01:11:47,560 --> 01:11:51,000
Speaker 1: a big deal. But here's the games that I'm I'm

1208
01:11:51,120 --> 01:11:53,639
Speaker 1: curious to see because I'm curious to see if there's

1209
01:11:53,680 --> 01:11:57,640
Speaker 1: any any fight left in a handful of teams. So

1210
01:11:57,920 --> 01:12:01,639
Speaker 1: Miami Syracuse is a classic one right now? Engaged is Miami?

1211
01:12:02,920 --> 01:12:06,639
Speaker 1: Is this? I've told you this has happened multiple seasons

1212
01:12:06,680 --> 01:12:11,679
Speaker 1: in a row where once once the postseason goals are over,

1213
01:12:12,600 --> 01:12:15,600
Speaker 1: there seems to be a collapse with the rest of

1214
01:12:15,640 --> 01:12:19,120
Speaker 1: the rest of the team. Does that happen here or

1215
01:12:19,120 --> 01:12:22,280
Speaker 1: can Miami successfully win by five or six touchdowns, which

1216
01:12:22,320 --> 01:12:25,720
Speaker 1: frankly they're favored to do. How about Penn State? They

1217
01:12:25,720 --> 01:12:28,599
Speaker 1: gave a one half of a fight to Ohio State. Well,

1218
01:12:28,640 --> 01:12:31,519
Speaker 1: they play Indiana this week. This game's at Penn State.

1219
01:12:34,040 --> 01:12:36,840
Speaker 1: I think the new coach bump is usually only worth

1220
01:12:37,080 --> 01:12:40,640
Speaker 1: only works after the first week or two. Then I

1221
01:12:40,720 --> 01:12:43,160
Speaker 1: start to wonder our players starting to think about what

1222
01:12:43,240 --> 01:12:46,880
Speaker 1: their value is in the portal. I can tell you

1223
01:12:46,920 --> 01:12:50,040
Speaker 1: this is a better I am not fading Indiana anymore.

1224
01:12:50,040 --> 01:12:53,000
Speaker 1: I'm out. I've lost too much money betting against Indiana

1225
01:12:53,080 --> 01:12:57,040
Speaker 1: thinking that these points spreads are overpriced. I'm out not

1226
01:12:57,240 --> 01:13:02,559
Speaker 1: touching it. Congratch Signetti. I've gone you you win, you cover,

1227
01:13:03,280 --> 01:13:08,120
Speaker 1: that's for sure. But does Penn State have any life left?

1228
01:13:08,400 --> 01:13:12,080
Speaker 1: If they do? Maybe this is you know, I still

1229
01:13:12,120 --> 01:13:14,519
Speaker 1: think Indiana is going to have a one more scare

1230
01:13:14,560 --> 01:13:16,240
Speaker 1: in them. Right. The Iowa game turned out to be

1231
01:13:16,320 --> 01:13:20,280
Speaker 1: a huge scare. Uh b Yu, Texas Tech is a

1232
01:13:20,320 --> 01:13:23,799
Speaker 1: huge game winner, is going to be probably the favorite

1233
01:13:23,800 --> 01:13:30,120
Speaker 1: of the big twelve losers likely out right, b Yu man,

1234
01:13:30,320 --> 01:13:33,880
Speaker 1: they are a they only UVA is more smoking mirrors

1235
01:13:33,920 --> 01:13:38,720
Speaker 1: than byu Right, But your record, you know, as great

1236
01:13:38,760 --> 01:13:41,840
Speaker 1: Bill Parcells said, your record is you are what your

1237
01:13:41,840 --> 01:13:43,720
Speaker 1: record says you are. And there ain't a no you

1238
01:13:43,720 --> 01:13:45,639
Speaker 1: know what that tells me it's really well coached team

1239
01:13:46,040 --> 01:13:50,920
Speaker 1: because they always they're prepared to win no matter what

1240
01:13:51,040 --> 01:13:53,240
Speaker 1: situation they get put in. But this is a tough

1241
01:13:53,320 --> 01:13:56,000
Speaker 1: road test. It's a much bigger game for Texas Tech.

1242
01:13:56,040 --> 01:13:59,360
Speaker 1: A second loss and all you know, than than they're

1243
01:13:59,400 --> 01:14:03,920
Speaker 1: crying and there in their nilber the way Miami is.

1244
01:14:08,800 --> 01:14:12,320
Speaker 1: I'm not saying Ohio State's on upset alert, but they're

1245
01:14:12,320 --> 01:14:17,800
Speaker 1: playing at Purdue. They've blown this game before as a

1246
01:14:18,000 --> 01:14:22,080
Speaker 1: top five team. I'm not saying, but this is a

1247
01:14:22,120 --> 01:14:29,480
Speaker 1: team produce shown some fight. They stick around in games unlikely,

1248
01:14:31,040 --> 01:14:34,880
Speaker 1: but anyway, put it this way, put it in your

1249
01:14:34,880 --> 01:14:37,200
Speaker 1: four box, especially if since there's you know, it's a

1250
01:14:37,240 --> 01:14:39,759
Speaker 1: big ten network game, it'll actually be of your YouTube

1251
01:14:39,760 --> 01:14:43,439
Speaker 1: TV subscription. A and M in Missouri is an elimination game.

1252
01:14:43,760 --> 01:14:47,280
Speaker 1: Missouri's at a four string quarterback. This is probably even

1253
01:14:47,320 --> 01:14:50,719
Speaker 1: though it's ranked versus rank, this is probably a flex

1254
01:14:51,360 --> 01:14:53,960
Speaker 1: a moment where A and M gets to flex they

1255
01:14:54,880 --> 01:14:58,040
Speaker 1: Probably the best game on the board is Oregon and Iowa.

1256
01:14:59,280 --> 01:15:02,240
Speaker 1: I don't know if you've been paying attention, but the

1257
01:15:03,160 --> 01:15:07,599
Speaker 1: Kirk Farrence's team there in Iowa City, man, they you know, yes,

1258
01:15:07,640 --> 01:15:10,120
Speaker 1: they've got the lost Indiana a game. They've given Indiana

1259
01:15:10,160 --> 01:15:15,120
Speaker 1: the toughest game that they've faced there is no tougher

1260
01:15:15,160 --> 01:15:21,760
Speaker 1: place to play than than Kinnick Stadium. There I this

1261
01:15:21,840 --> 01:15:24,920
Speaker 1: is you know, losers out of the playoffs. This is

1262
01:15:25,120 --> 01:15:29,240
Speaker 1: probably a loser goes home winner is you know at

1263
01:15:29,240 --> 01:15:31,120
Speaker 1: this point, especially if the ACC is only going to

1264
01:15:31,160 --> 01:15:34,120
Speaker 1: get one, that means that Big ten might get four teams.

1265
01:15:34,680 --> 01:15:37,800
Speaker 1: You know, who's the fourth team, who's the third team?

1266
01:15:38,479 --> 01:15:41,719
Speaker 1: Iowa a win here and they're suddenly making a play

1267
01:15:41,840 --> 01:15:45,240
Speaker 1: for that third or fourth Big ten slot. So it's

1268
01:15:45,280 --> 01:15:48,080
Speaker 1: a big game, and I think the sneaky best game

1269
01:15:48,840 --> 01:15:53,200
Speaker 1: of the weekend Auburn and Vanderbilt. Do you believe in

1270
01:15:53,240 --> 01:15:57,040
Speaker 1: the new coach bump, the Hugh Freeze firing? It's it's

1271
01:15:57,040 --> 01:15:59,599
Speaker 1: actually done quite well if you look at it through

1272
01:15:59,600 --> 01:16:05,200
Speaker 1: the spread, and I you know, if you wanted to

1273
01:16:05,240 --> 01:16:08,920
Speaker 1: pick vander you can pick some knits at Vanderbilt. You

1274
01:16:08,960 --> 01:16:11,920
Speaker 1: know their their body of work is great, but when

1275
01:16:11,960 --> 01:16:16,040
Speaker 1: you look under the hood, it's not statistically the greatest

1276
01:16:17,200 --> 01:16:23,160
Speaker 1: on that front. If somebody's gonna finally knock Uva off

1277
01:16:23,200 --> 01:16:25,200
Speaker 1: of its perch and give them their first loss in

1278
01:16:25,240 --> 01:16:29,200
Speaker 1: the ACC, Wake Forest is a pretty good candidate. Don't

1279
01:16:29,280 --> 01:16:33,240
Speaker 1: overlook that game. And then the two others they again,

1280
01:16:33,320 --> 01:16:37,080
Speaker 1: it's more on upset alert than anything else. Does LSU

1281
01:16:37,320 --> 01:16:41,400
Speaker 1: have a have a a relieve that Brian Kelly is

1282
01:16:41,479 --> 01:16:44,840
Speaker 1: gone bump? Does Garrett nus Meyer, who clearly wasn't getting

1283
01:16:44,880 --> 01:16:47,559
Speaker 1: along with coach Brian Kelly? Does he have the game

1284
01:16:47,640 --> 01:16:50,679
Speaker 1: of his life against Alabama? Here's something that is true.

1285
01:16:50,960 --> 01:16:55,240
Speaker 1: Whenever Alabama's favored by double digits in the when Klein

1286
01:16:55,240 --> 01:16:57,599
Speaker 1: de Boor has been in charge, the games turned into

1287
01:16:57,640 --> 01:17:00,519
Speaker 1: a pretty interesting game. And in fact, alib Is blown

1288
01:17:00,520 --> 01:17:03,439
Speaker 1: a couple of them, so that's a small upset alert.

1289
01:17:03,680 --> 01:17:06,960
Speaker 1: And then Navy at Notre Dame. It seems as if

1290
01:17:07,080 --> 01:17:09,360
Speaker 1: Navy always there was a time where it didn't matter

1291
01:17:09,560 --> 01:17:12,280
Speaker 1: what Navy's record was, it was a given that they'd

1292
01:17:12,320 --> 01:17:15,160
Speaker 1: make Notre Dame sweat you know, that they would make

1293
01:17:15,200 --> 01:17:20,000
Speaker 1: it a one score game. I think after the clunker

1294
01:17:20,040 --> 01:17:23,479
Speaker 1: that Notre Dame had last week against BC, that they

1295
01:17:23,600 --> 01:17:26,840
Speaker 1: probably right the ship and they take care of business here.

1296
01:17:26,920 --> 01:17:30,320
Speaker 1: But I enjoy me a good Navy Notre Dame matchup,

1297
01:17:30,960 --> 01:17:34,000
Speaker 1: and I know a lot of a lot of my

1298
01:17:34,520 --> 01:17:39,559
Speaker 1: midshipman retirees also do too. Always fun to see Navy

1299
01:17:39,640 --> 01:17:41,720
Speaker 1: play with the big boys and hang with Notre Dame,

1300
01:17:41,800 --> 01:17:44,479
Speaker 1: and they've done it a lot throughout this century. I

1301
01:17:44,560 --> 01:17:48,800
Speaker 1: think they even pulled an upset once. So, like I said,

1302
01:17:48,960 --> 01:17:51,639
Speaker 1: no awesome games this weekend, no games of the year,

1303
01:17:52,960 --> 01:17:57,400
Speaker 1: which probably means at least two top five teams lose. Right,

1304
01:17:57,560 --> 01:18:00,719
Speaker 1: Because it's always the weeks you don't expect, college football

1305
01:18:00,800 --> 01:18:04,720
Speaker 1: delivers the kookie and the crazy. So for those of

1306
01:18:04,800 --> 01:18:08,639
Speaker 1: you going to Miami or going to any college football game,

1307
01:18:08,880 --> 01:18:11,960
Speaker 1: enjoy your weekend doing that. And for some of you,

1308
01:18:12,040 --> 01:18:13,759
Speaker 1: I'll see you in Miami. Go Kins.