WEBVTT - Why Tracy's Furniture Is Stuck on a Grounded Ship 0:00:05.840 --> 0:00:09.280 Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast. 0:00:09.360 --> 0:00:13.240 I'm Tracy Allaway and I'm Joe. Joe. Do you remember 0:00:13.440 --> 0:00:16.680 that time I tried to ship a Teddy Bear in 0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:20.720 a single container from Hong Kong to New York or 0:00:20.800 --> 0:00:23.080 was it l a well to the US? Yeah? And 0:00:23.120 --> 0:00:25.959 it basically the story is like, it's just so operationally 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:29.080 complex and paperwork and there was no space so much 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:30.840 and it didn't make it in the end, right, No, 0:00:31.080 --> 0:00:33.400 I couldn't. Basically I couldn't get on a ship. I 0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:36.440 kept getting bumped um and bumped and bumped, and finally 0:00:36.479 --> 0:00:38.080 it seemed like it was going to be six months 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:41.400 until I could even get space, and so it didn't 0:00:41.400 --> 0:00:44.720 seem morph it. And now now that I've moved to 0:00:44.720 --> 0:00:48.519 New York, I got to repeat this entire experiment, um, 0:00:48.520 --> 0:00:51.000 you know, in reality, and I got to put all 0:00:51.000 --> 0:00:55.040 my apartment belongings into a container, put them on a ship, 0:00:55.080 --> 0:00:57.600 and actually ship them from Hong Kong to New York. 0:00:58.000 --> 0:01:01.520 Except it turns out I still can't actually ship anything 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:04.760 from Hong Kong to New York. I love how like 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:08.440 no one has more experience with the physical realities of 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:11.800 our commodity and infrastructure system than you between the teddy bear, 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:14.319 between the barrel of oil that you bought and kept 0:01:14.400 --> 0:01:17.520 under your desk for a while, and now this. You 0:01:17.560 --> 0:01:20.840 seem to have a knack for experiencing firsthand what the 0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:22.720 rest of us just see is lines on the chart. 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:26.200 I think I have a knack for failed logistics. But 0:01:26.440 --> 0:01:29.959 for our listeners, those who haven't been keeping abreast of 0:01:30.000 --> 0:01:34.319 all the shipping news, there is another ship that is stuck. 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:38.360 This time it's stuck in the Chesapeake Bay, just outside 0:01:38.520 --> 0:01:42.840 the port of Baltimore, and um you know, ironically, I 0:01:42.840 --> 0:01:45.399 guess that irony isn't the right word here, but it 0:01:45.520 --> 0:01:49.360 happens to be owned by the same company that owned 0:01:49.600 --> 0:01:52.640 UM the Ever Given, the boat that got stuck in 0:01:52.680 --> 0:01:56.760 the Suez Canal. Uh. This time the container ship is 0:01:56.800 --> 0:01:59.920 called the ever Forward, only of course it's not going forward. 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:02.600 It's stuck in the mud with all my belongings in it. 0:02:02.920 --> 0:02:05.360 So they Ever Given got a lot of attention, obviously 0:02:05.440 --> 0:02:08.600 in part because it blocked all the traffic of the 0:02:08.600 --> 0:02:11.640 Suis Canal, which everyone knows. I take it the ever Forward. 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:14.760 It doesn't seem to be blocking as much, I think, 0:02:14.840 --> 0:02:17.920 but it has all your stuff on it that is correct. 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:21.800 So there were some some news reports around this, but 0:02:22.000 --> 0:02:24.680 definitely not as much attention as the Ever Given, given 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:28.600 that that thing was blocking an actual percentage of global trade. 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:31.000 Who can no longer go through the canal? Um the 0:02:31.080 --> 0:02:36.320 Chesapeake Bay remains open. But it's interesting to me personally 0:02:36.760 --> 0:02:39.840 for obvious reasons. But it also the fact that this 0:02:39.880 --> 0:02:42.919 has happened again feeds into a number of the themes 0:02:42.960 --> 0:02:45.680 that we were discussing all throughout last year. And I 0:02:45.720 --> 0:02:48.080 know we've been talking about a lot of other stuff recently, 0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:50.919 but I think we have to dive into this one. 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:53.720 We owe it to odd lots listeners and ourselves. So 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:57.040 we are going to be speaking with sal Mercogliano. He 0:02:57.320 --> 0:03:02.720 is a maritime historian and day history professor at Campbell University. 0:03:02.760 --> 0:03:05.760 He also runs an excellent YouTube channel which has been 0:03:05.760 --> 0:03:09.080 going in depth on what's actually happening with the ship 0:03:09.200 --> 0:03:12.240 The Ever Forward. Sal thank you so much for coming 0:03:12.240 --> 0:03:14.440 on the show. Well, thank you for having me. Why 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:16.800 don't we start with the basics, because you know, I 0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:20.640 read the news articles. This thing has been stuck for 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:24.119 just over a week. Now, What exactly do we think 0:03:24.200 --> 0:03:27.639 happened here? How can a massive container ship have this 0:03:27.800 --> 0:03:31.280 kind of incident for a second time, sure, so Ever 0:03:31.400 --> 0:03:34.960 Forward was on a routine voyage. She had come through 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:39.160 the Panama Canal and was stopping at four East Coast 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:42.480 US ports, had stopped already at Savannah and offloaded. It 0:03:42.560 --> 0:03:45.720 had gone up to Baltimore and offloaded part of its cargo, 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:49.160 and it departed on the evening of March thirteenth and 0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:52.640 was heading down to Norfolk and then eventually to New York. 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:56.360 So the ship departed routinely, came off the birth late 0:03:56.680 --> 0:03:59.680 late in the evening early morning, and she seemed to 0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:01.840 be allowing all the rules. I mean, everything seemed to 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:04.320 be fine. They were maneuvering. There seemed to be no 0:04:04.440 --> 0:04:08.000 incidents with her. And she's part of this new class 0:04:08.000 --> 0:04:10.720 of what's called the neo Panamax vessel. These are vessels 0:04:10.760 --> 0:04:13.520 that can use the new lane of the Panama Canal 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:17.960 that was opened in so these East Coast ports have 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:22.640 been dredging and building to accommodate vessels like this. And 0:04:22.839 --> 0:04:25.599 Ever Forward was heading southbound through the what's called the 0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:28.320 Craig Hill Channel. This is the channel out of Baltimore 0:04:28.800 --> 0:04:32.640 down to the Bay Bridge at Annapolis, and the ship 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.400 was following the track that it normally does in the 0:04:35.480 --> 0:04:39.520 Dredge Channel, which is well lit, well charted. She had 0:04:39.560 --> 0:04:42.320 a chess Peak bay pilot on board in addition to 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:46.320 her normal crew and master, and the vessel went through 0:04:46.320 --> 0:04:48.800 the buoy's at the top of the channel, but proceeded 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:51.359 to keep going out of the channel. Didn't appear to 0:04:51.440 --> 0:04:55.120 make the change at all to the course to head southbound, 0:04:55.200 --> 0:04:58.479 and what she wound up doing was plowing into the 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:01.920 mud on the east side of the channel. She draws 0:05:02.040 --> 0:05:04.599 about forty two ft of water in the condition she 0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:07.599 was when she left Baltimore. She is now sitting in 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:11.480 anywhere between eighteen to twenty four ft of water about 0:05:11.520 --> 0:05:14.440 an entire ship lengths off the channel. She's over a 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:18.320 thousand feet long. So what is what's being done right now? 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:20.839 And you mentioned the ship has been stuck for a 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:23.800 little over a week. What's been tried and what is 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:26.040 this sort of basic idea of what people are trying 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:28.320 to do to get the ship moving again. Sure, so 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:31.000 again we're not exactly sure what causes incident. Let me 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:33.080 go back that for a second. So you know there's 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:37.159 either a mechanical issue which is you know, she couldn't steer, 0:05:37.480 --> 0:05:40.919 or it is a human error. Was there a miscommunication 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:44.160 between the pilot and the crew. Was there an issue 0:05:44.240 --> 0:05:48.200 regarding uh the proper helm water? Did they lose their 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:52.080 situational awareness? I find the ladder the least likely because 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:54.680 this is a well lit channel. It's like a landing 0:05:54.760 --> 0:05:57.240 zone for an airplane, well lit with the Booey's heading 0:05:57.240 --> 0:05:59.600 to the bay bridge there. So we're probably looking at 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:02.880 a mechanic goal or communications error in regards to the 0:06:02.920 --> 0:06:05.719 salvage of the vessel. So we're a week into this 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:08.480 at this point, and again, ever given took just six 0:06:08.600 --> 0:06:10.920 days to get free, and now we're over a week 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:13.560 into this, and what they've begun to do is start 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:16.120 dredging in two areas, one off the stern of the 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:19.160 vessel and one off the forward bow of the vessel, 0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:22.239 off the right side of the vessel. And what they're 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:25.960 trying to do is remove the mud and spoil from 0:06:26.000 --> 0:06:29.080 around the propeller and runner of the vessel and also 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:32.679 trying to clear the forward bow an attempt to pull 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:35.679 the chan of the ship into the channel. The problem 0:06:35.760 --> 0:06:38.159 is the amount of spoil that is there. This is 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:41.320 the material that had actually been removed from the channel, 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:44.080 and the method they're doing with the dredges they have 0:06:44.200 --> 0:06:47.480 there are big for the United States, but they're not 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:50.640 like the vacuum dredges you see in the Suez Canal. 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:53.480 Give you an idea. The biggest dredge on seen here 0:06:53.560 --> 0:06:58.080 can move about sixty cubic yards of material in each 0:06:58.120 --> 0:07:01.680 of its moves with its big clams l The massuit, 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:04.760 which was the dredge used in the Suez Canal, could 0:07:04.839 --> 0:07:08.400 move seventy thousand cubic yards of material in an hour 0:07:08.520 --> 0:07:11.800 with its vacuum suction. Wait was that the was that 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:14.280 the little one that turned into a meme? Or was 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:16.960 that something else that was the big dredge? So was bright? 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:18.720 It wasn't the little digger, although I've seen a lot. 0:07:19.360 --> 0:07:20.800 I've seen a lot of memes right now with a 0:07:20.800 --> 0:07:22.560 little with the little digger on the way to the 0:07:22.640 --> 0:07:25.160 United States. Can you just say those two numbers again, 0:07:25.280 --> 0:07:27.680 how much could the Suez dredger do verse the one 0:07:27.720 --> 0:07:30.000 that we have operating right now. Sure, so there's two 0:07:30.040 --> 0:07:32.080 dredges right now and operating. The one off the bow 0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:34.720 of the vessel can move about a fifteen cubic yards 0:07:34.800 --> 0:07:37.200 in each move. The one off the stern, the Dale 0:07:37.280 --> 0:07:41.440 Pilot Piet can move about sixty cubic yards. The Masure, 0:07:41.520 --> 0:07:44.320 which is the big dredge that was used on every 0:07:44.320 --> 0:07:49.000 given can move seventy thousand cubic yards an hour. Okay, 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:53.400 here's my question, why don't we have a bigger drudger? Well, 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:55.280 and that's a big issue, I would argue. You know, 0:07:55.320 --> 0:07:57.160 one of the things that we've been talking about with 0:07:57.240 --> 0:08:00.240 port infrastructure is the focus I mentioned the expand nine 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:03.160 the Suez Canal. So we've been dredging channels, we've been 0:08:03.160 --> 0:08:06.280 bringing in these large ship to shore cranes. But one 0:08:06.280 --> 0:08:10.000 of the things that has really lagged is our dredging capacity. 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:14.640 And we've seen recently through the Infrastructure Bill, money being 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:18.720 contributed or being allocated to build new drudges, and we're 0:08:18.720 --> 0:08:21.559 seeing new dredges build. It is a priority that really 0:08:21.640 --> 0:08:24.920 needs to be done. We we do not have sufficient 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:28.360 dredging capacity in the US, and there's a law that 0:08:28.760 --> 0:08:31.080 requires there's the Dredging Act of nineteen o six that 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:34.280 requires dredges within the United States to be US owned, 0:08:34.400 --> 0:08:37.439 US built, US crewed, very similar to the Jones Act. 0:08:37.480 --> 0:08:41.640 Of and this is because we want dredges within the 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:43.920 United States. The problem is we just haven't a lot 0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:46.280 of a lot of money to it, and there really 0:08:46.320 --> 0:08:50.240 hasn't been the impetus to fund this, and I think 0:08:50.280 --> 0:08:53.920 this incident is really highlighting that danger. I can't believe, Tracy, 0:08:54.000 --> 0:08:56.880 We're gonna have to now do an episode an hour 0:08:57.080 --> 0:09:02.200 just talking about America's systematic under estament in dredging capacity. 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:03.840 But at some point we're gonna have to do this. 0:09:03.880 --> 0:09:07.000 But also why haven't we, I mean, why, like why 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:10.040 has there been this sort of underappreciation. I mean, I understand, 0:09:10.040 --> 0:09:14.160 like dredging isn't just about getting ships unstuck, So why 0:09:14.280 --> 0:09:18.240 this sort of systemic under investment. Well, it has to 0:09:18.280 --> 0:09:21.319 do with the way we handle ports in the United States. 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:24.600 So you've you had Jean Saroka on Jean, what is 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:26.960 the CEO of the of the Port of Los Angeles. 0:09:27.240 --> 0:09:29.439 Ports in the United States are owned by the states 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:32.920 and municipalities, so they are a local entity. Yet the 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:36.320 waters that connect those ports to the ocean are federal, 0:09:36.760 --> 0:09:40.079 and so they fall under the Army Corps of Engineers specifically, 0:09:40.559 --> 0:09:42.880 and so the Army Corps of Engineers has been tasked 0:09:42.920 --> 0:09:45.240 to basically maintain the dredging, and they do it either 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:48.800 with their own fleet of dredgers or they contract out 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:51.920 with that. And you know, this comes back to everything 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:56.080 from Hurricane Katrina and and and the dikes and all 0:09:56.120 --> 0:10:00.360 the waterways maintenance, and we just have under invested in this. 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:02.240 It's not a very sexy topic. No one likes to 0:10:02.240 --> 0:10:04.040 talk about it, No one likes to pay money for 0:10:04.080 --> 0:10:06.760 a dredge. It's you know, it's just not not not 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:09.120 as sexy as an aircraft carrier or something, you know, 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:12.560 more nautical. But it's absolutely essential. And one of the 0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:14.760 things that we've seen happen again over the past decade 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:18.040 is these East Coast and Gulf Coast ports have been 0:10:18.400 --> 0:10:21.760 using what dredges are available to get those channels down 0:10:21.800 --> 0:10:26.800 to accommodate these larger vessels, these ultra large container vessels. 0:10:26.800 --> 0:10:29.520 And while ever Forward is not an ultra large container vessels, 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:33.240 she's actually substantially smaller than ever given by about four 0:10:33.320 --> 0:10:37.280 hundred feet and eight thousand boxes. She is still a 0:10:37.400 --> 0:10:39.760 mammoth vessel when you look at her compared to the 0:10:39.840 --> 0:10:50.680 vessels that have previously come into US ports. So we 0:10:50.840 --> 0:10:54.120 build these massive container ships. And you know, Joe and 0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:55.680 I have had a number of guests on at this 0:10:55.760 --> 0:10:58.160 point talking about how the ships get bigger and bigger 0:10:58.200 --> 0:11:00.760 and the reasons why that happens. But at the same time, 0:11:00.960 --> 0:11:05.320 it doesn't seem like, again, we've made sufficient investment in 0:11:05.360 --> 0:11:09.840 the infrastructure, if you include dredging in the category of infrastructure, 0:11:10.080 --> 0:11:14.360 to actually make the whole system work efficiently, right And 0:11:14.400 --> 0:11:16.640 I think that's that's a key element right there, because 0:11:16.679 --> 0:11:19.240 one of the things we're watching is Okay, how can 0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:22.240 we better improve it? And we've talked about, you know, 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:25.839 improving throughput in the ports everything from road, rail, dra 0:11:26.000 --> 0:11:28.840 edge trucks, you name it. But again, the maintenance of 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:32.679 the ports are really essential and and be able to 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:34.880 flow the cargo. And in particularly one of the things 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:37.240 you're seeing right now is because of the backlogs on 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:39.040 the West coast that have been going on now for 0:11:39.200 --> 0:11:42.120 over a year, you're seeing shippers, those who want to 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:45.840 move cargo are shifting over to the East coast. You know, 0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:49.840 the ports of New York, of Charleston, Savannah, Baltimore, Norfolk, 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:55.199 Houston are actively seeking this this cargo and it's it's successful. 0:11:55.360 --> 0:11:57.640 They're getting it you're seeing this matter fact, you're seeing 0:11:57.880 --> 0:12:00.520 where you had seen backlogs off the Port of Los Angeles, 0:12:00.559 --> 0:12:02.320 which they were over a hundred ships. Now they're down 0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:05.320 to forty. Now we're seeing them off Charleston, we're seeing 0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:07.200 them off Norfolk, we're seeing them off in New York, 0:12:07.920 --> 0:12:10.320 and and we're kind of moving the issue. And Port 0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:13.160 of Baltimore in particularly is a very interesting port because 0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:16.480 it does not just containers, it does bulk cargo coal 0:12:16.760 --> 0:12:20.079 in particularly, a lot of vehicles moved through. It's an 0:12:20.080 --> 0:12:24.040 active moving port, and so moving ships in and out 0:12:24.120 --> 0:12:27.640 as expeditiously as you can becomes a priority. And there's 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:30.760 gonna be a question about was ever Forward going too 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:34.440 fast for the channel she was in, because the faster 0:12:34.559 --> 0:12:36.360 you go, And it's literally the same thing with ever 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:39.400 Given too. If every Given hadn't going been going as 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:43.040 fast thirteen knots and ever Forward was doing thirteen knots too, 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:47.120 had they been going slower, the salvage and the damage 0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:49.440 and the ability to get the vessels off would have 0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:53.520 been minimized. Is that faster than they should be going 0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:57.960 in either in either the Suez or the chest Peak. Well, 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:00.720 it's funny you said that because I had Traffic, which 0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:03.200 is an A I S tracking app which does all 0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:06.880 the kind of monitoring. Ever, Forward came through this same 0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:10.040 area in December, and when she came through in December, 0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:12.480 she did roughly the same speed, so it was roughly 0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:15.840 about twelve thirteen knots she was using coming in. So 0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:18.040 I was able to see her her her departure and 0:13:18.080 --> 0:13:20.120 it seemed to be the same exact Now she may 0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:23.120 speed it up just a little bit prematurely before turning 0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:25.360 into the channel, and that's something that's going to have 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:28.840 to be investigated. So I want to ask a question 0:13:28.880 --> 0:13:33.400 which is very important to me personally, but what are 0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:37.720 what are the chances that something really bad happens in 0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:43.200 the situation and my entire apartments belongings is just like 0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:46.079 jettisoned into the ocean, or I don't know, if the 0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:49.920 ship cracks up and I lose everything. Is that is 0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:54.840 that an above zero percent chance? Uh? I would say, 0:13:55.240 --> 0:13:58.719 You're not without some worries, Tracy. I think I think 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:01.400 one of the reasons we're seeing this this salvage taking 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:04.160 time again. I think the coast Guards announcement that she'll 0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:07.520 be free this week is very premature. Bill Doyle, who's 0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:11.240 the CEO of the Port of Baltimore headed the Dredger 0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:14.400 Association of the United States. I mean he he knows stredging, 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:17.360 and he says this is gonna take several weeks. UH. 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:20.640 Since the vessel is fully aground, meaning its bottom is 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:24.120 touching again, she draws water. She's an eighteen to twenty 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:27.360 four ft of water. She's literally up higher than she 0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:30.640 normally is sitting on mud. They have to be concerned 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:34.280 about several issues. Number One, this vessel cracking UH. She 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:38.360 ships are designed is a ship that brand new. UH 0:14:38.520 --> 0:14:41.160 ships are not designed to touch anything. They're designed to 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:45.560 be buoyant, and the hulls are very thin in certain areas, 0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:49.480 I'm talking millimeters thick. And you know what you have 0:14:49.520 --> 0:14:52.040 to worry about is the vessel shifting, moving and cracking. 0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:55.960 This could necessitate an oil spill, for example, or fuel spill, 0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:58.960 so they want to move her very carefully. The other 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:01.760 thing is, since she's there's no buoyancy acting on her, 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:04.720 there's nothing pushing her up to keep her afloat. Everything 0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:06.720 is pushing down. And what you have to worry about 0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:09.320 is if you pull her back into the channel, she's 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:11.120 she went out to the channel to the east side, 0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:13.240 so you have to pull her to the west. You 0:15:13.280 --> 0:15:16.040 don't want the vessel to roll, and that's the worst 0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:19.000 case scenario, in which case your apartment goods would then 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:21.960 be wet in the ocean or in the bay. This 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:25.400 leads to my next question. I guess it's there's it's 0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:29.640 the two potential A. If Tracy's entire apartment good to 0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:32.400 go into the ocean, who pays her for that? But 0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:36.120 be who is paying right now? Assuming Tracy does get 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:39.200 her stuff? But how are the sort of costs of 0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:43.320 delay allocated? Right? We all we all remember the law 0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:46.760 of general averages from previous episodes. So I'm also worried 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:48.960 about my liability and whether or not I end up 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:52.200 paying for the contents of this entire ship. Well, I'm 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:54.920 glad you mentioned Tracey, because that's what I was gonna lose. Tom. 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:58.960 I'm hoping you have insurance on this because right now, 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:02.600 this this entire salvage is being done by Evergreen, the 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:06.320 company associated with this, and they have not yet declared 0:16:06.480 --> 0:16:09.160 general average, in which case the cargo would have to 0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:12.600 bear a portion of the salvage. Right now, it's under 0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:16.520 the protection and indemnity club that ensures the vessel. So 0:16:16.560 --> 0:16:20.160 they're paying for the salvage right now. And you know 0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:23.520 they contracted with Don John SMIT, which is actually a 0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:26.560 combined company doing the salvage. SMIT had done the salvage 0:16:26.560 --> 0:16:30.000 on ever given in the Suez, and so now Don 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:33.440 John Smit are doing this. And again there are certain 0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:35.600 liabilities they're gonna have to be looked at. Number One, 0:16:35.640 --> 0:16:38.320 cargo delay. Uh, this cargo is not going to be 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:41.960 delivered on time, so there may be liabilities against that. 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:45.600 But again, if the vessel has a catastrophic issue, then 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:48.280 that may be something that has to be done. And 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:53.000 under shipping agreements, the cargo bears part of the responsibility. 0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:56.520 If they declare general average, then the question becomes does 0:16:56.560 --> 0:16:59.120 the cargo pay. This is why whenever you ship anything 0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:01.480 you need to get insurance on it because if not, 0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:05.119 you open yourself up to huge liability. They may have 0:17:05.200 --> 0:17:08.040 to start taking containers off this vessel if they really 0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:11.840 if they think they can't move it safely. She didn't 0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:14.520 have that much ballast on her because the ship has 0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:18.520 offloaded cargo. Ships tend not to take ballast in what 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:20.480 they call brown water. They like to do it out 0:17:20.520 --> 0:17:22.200 in the ocean and blue water, because they have to 0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:26.000 run that ballast water through a system to clean it, 0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:28.960 to purify it. And that's expensive because you have to 0:17:28.960 --> 0:17:31.679 pump off that material at the end. So this ship 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:34.520 probably didn't have very much ballast on board. They were 0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:37.560 probably gonna ballast after they left New York. So that 0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:40.280 means taking fuel off. And if that's not enough, the 0:17:40.280 --> 0:17:42.400 problem with that is it raises the center of gravity 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:44.400 of the vessel. That means you're gonna start taking those 0:17:44.440 --> 0:17:47.480 loaded containers at the very top off and that is 0:17:47.480 --> 0:17:50.240 a complicated problem. You need huge cranes to come out 0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:53.560 to do it. It's a very slow process, but that 0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:56.640 may be necessary. While we're here and look at reading 0:17:56.640 --> 0:17:58.440 a little bit more about the Foreign Dredge Act of 0:17:59.160 --> 0:18:02.879 suddenly really that you know, I know, sometimes like you 0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:05.760 talk about, oh, can the President suspend or pause the 0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:08.960 Jones Act? And sometimes you hear about that during emergencies, 0:18:09.119 --> 0:18:11.399 can the president do anything that could we get a 0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:14.920 bigger dredge from another country just temporarily you can waive 0:18:14.960 --> 0:18:16.760 the Dredge Act and bring it in the problem you have, 0:18:16.880 --> 0:18:20.120 of course, is whatever foreign dredge exist is not here, 0:18:21.760 --> 0:18:23.680 it's gonna be a delay to get it over here. 0:18:23.760 --> 0:18:25.920 And one of the reasons that this Dredge Act was 0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:29.240 enacted was to ensure that we had dredges in the 0:18:29.320 --> 0:18:32.320 United States that could do this, so that in case 0:18:32.320 --> 0:18:35.120 of an emergency, in case of an accident like this 0:18:35.200 --> 0:18:38.360 where a ship runs aground. Unfortunately, ever Forward went out 0:18:38.400 --> 0:18:41.439 of the channel. She hasn't blocked Baltimore, so you know, 0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:44.160 we still see the free movement. However, when they do 0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:46.560 salvage her, she's going to temporarily block the channel to 0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:49.679 bring it out. But I think this again goes to 0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:51.879 that idea of infrastructure. You know, one of the things 0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:54.400 we're not talking about two is the size of tugs. 0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:57.639 You know, it was estimated that this ship grounded and 0:18:57.880 --> 0:19:00.280 there's a grounding force. The amount of poll you would 0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:04.000 need to pull her off, according to naval architects. I've 0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:07.359 talked to the marine industry uh AXCUME ME, the Marine 0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:10.880 Innovation Safety Lab. They've estimated it's going to take anywhere 0:19:10.880 --> 0:19:15.520 from twenty to two thousand metric tons of pull to 0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:19.080 get her off. A normal tug pulls about sixty tons, 0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:22.440 So it gives you the idea of of what you need. 0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:25.160 And again we're not investing a lot in our tug boats, 0:19:25.160 --> 0:19:27.480 which sounds very small. I know it's not a very 0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:30.879 sexy topic, but in truth, as these vessels get bigger, 0:19:30.920 --> 0:19:33.280 they're much bigger than the tugs that were designed to 0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:44.360 handle vessels ten twenty thirty years ago. You know, we've 0:19:44.400 --> 0:19:47.119 seen okay, at least two of these incidents at this 0:19:47.200 --> 0:19:51.320 point involving large ships getting stuck somewhere and then all 0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:54.679 the efforts to actually move them. What are the chances that, 0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:59.240 instead of building out the infrastructure, so getting bigger dredgers, 0:19:59.240 --> 0:20:03.080 getting bigger to boats, widening channels and things like that, 0:20:03.080 --> 0:20:06.800 that we settled for smaller container ships. Is that realistic 0:20:06.960 --> 0:20:10.240 or desirable at all? Well, I would say two things 0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:13.520 on that trace. Number one, we will continue to get 0:20:13.640 --> 0:20:19.000 vessels bigger and larger than even this, because insurance companies 0:20:19.040 --> 0:20:21.840 will keep ensuring them, and ports will keep accepting them, 0:20:21.920 --> 0:20:24.439 and operators will keep getting them. I should say that 0:20:24.560 --> 0:20:28.600 right now, right in the midst of this grounding, Evergreen, 0:20:28.680 --> 0:20:32.280 the parent company, just ordered three ultra large container vessels, 0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:35.520 twenty four thousand box vessels. They did the same thing, 0:20:35.520 --> 0:20:37.719 by the way, when ever given had run Ashore. Literally 0:20:37.800 --> 0:20:39.879 a day or two after ever Given ran Ashore, they 0:20:40.000 --> 0:20:42.959 placed a huge order for these vessels. They love these 0:20:43.040 --> 0:20:47.040 vessels because their economy of scale. Again, you know, the longer, wider, 0:20:47.080 --> 0:20:51.280 bigger makeum, the more efficient it is for them. There 0:20:51.280 --> 0:20:53.560 are things that can be done to do this. The 0:20:53.600 --> 0:20:58.359 problem is it shifts cost onto transportation, which in turn 0:20:58.480 --> 0:21:01.399 in turn gets passed on to the consumer. If you 0:21:01.480 --> 0:21:04.840 slow down these vessels, if if you you know, require 0:21:04.960 --> 0:21:07.399 tug escorts and things like that, you're going to make 0:21:07.440 --> 0:21:09.760 it more expensive. And if you go for smaller vessels, 0:21:09.760 --> 0:21:12.720 that becomes even more expensive. We can talk for hours 0:21:12.760 --> 0:21:15.119 about this. I found this conversation to be riveting. But 0:21:15.359 --> 0:21:18.560 you know, just my last question is basically we had 0:21:18.560 --> 0:21:22.639 the ever Given, now the ever forward a. How like 0:21:23.000 --> 0:21:25.439 rare is this? I mean, like, you know, normally I 0:21:25.480 --> 0:21:29.359 don't think ships running aground, particularly if they don't either 0:21:29.440 --> 0:21:31.120 in the US or if they don't block the Swiss 0:21:31.119 --> 0:21:33.679 Canal probably get much news attention. How rare is it 0:21:33.760 --> 0:21:35.760