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Speaker 1: It's time to get inside the Giants Hotel on Giants

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Speaker 1: dot Com and the Giants Mobile the Giants Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the newest edition of the Giant Subtle Podcast.

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Speaker 1: John Smoke with you today's guest from Pro Football Focus

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Speaker 1: George chak Ruy. But first and remind you you could

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Speaker 1: find the GJIHNT Subtle Podcast and all your favorite podcast

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Speaker 1: platforms at Giants dot com, slash podcast, and on the

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Speaker 1: Giants Mobile app. Now we're joined by our guests. He

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Speaker 1: joins us every year heading into the football season to

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Speaker 1: kind of dig into general trends in the NFL and

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Speaker 1: some of the new things they're figuring out. Over at

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Speaker 1: PFF headquarters, he's in Cincinnati. He does many things, data scientist,

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Speaker 1: host of the PF Forecast podcast, and an analyst. Also,

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Speaker 1: there's chief experience officer over a Pro Football Focus, George

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Speaker 1: schach Rury. George, thanks for being with us. And by

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Speaker 1: the way, Effort and Siciliano try to do your name

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Speaker 1: much better than you do. I'm than he does. I'm

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Speaker 1: not gonna lie. I think you did. I was actually

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Speaker 1: very impressive. You nailed the like a heart ached sound.

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Speaker 1: The yeah it's not it's not something that comes easily.

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Speaker 1: It's not in the English language a whole lot. Um,

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Speaker 1: But yeah, Scilly, he gives he gives it a really

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Speaker 1: good go. I think there are a few people that

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Speaker 1: do it particularly well. That was like CENTI, although I

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Speaker 1: gotta no nice, I'll take it all right. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: start really basic here, George. What new stuff are you

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Speaker 1: guys working on or trying to figure out or you

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Speaker 1: have figured out since we last spoke about PFF That

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Speaker 1: kind of helps NFL teams either when games build franchises.

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Speaker 1: You could take this in whatever direction you want and

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Speaker 1: then we'll build from there. Yeah, you know, I mean,

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Speaker 1: we're Here's the great thing is you're always learning UM.

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Speaker 1: And anyone that comes in and and learn something initially

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Speaker 1: and then isn't willing to update you know there their

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Speaker 1: knowledge is UM is not doing it the right way.

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Speaker 1: So I like to think that kind of anything that

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Speaker 1: we've touched on in the past is open for um,

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Speaker 1: open for debate, and always open for new research. And UM.

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Speaker 1: You know, one of the things that I think we've

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Speaker 1: talked about a little bit before and that we've been

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Speaker 1: studying for a while, and I think is one of

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Speaker 1: the next things in terms of UM, you know, like

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Speaker 1: kind of really macro team building sorts of things. UM

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Speaker 1: is the value of coverage and pass rush, but then

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Speaker 1: also like how do you build those most effectively because

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Speaker 1: it's easy to make a blanket statement like mathematically, good

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Speaker 1: coverage units are more valuable than good pass rush units

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Speaker 1: UM and and therefore you can extract, you know, get

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Speaker 1: to coverage is more valuable than pass rush, which definitely

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Speaker 1: rubs a lot of people the wrong way. It's very

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Speaker 1: antithetical to how the salary cap is used. Right. The

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Speaker 1: way that teams allocate their money says that they value

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Speaker 1: individual pass rushers more than individual coverage players. And there's

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Speaker 1: a little bit of you know, normalization you have to

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Speaker 1: do there because you play more coverage players than rushers

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Speaker 1: in general, and you know that that's important. But by

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Speaker 1: and large people value thrush over coverage, and that statement

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Speaker 1: can lead you to do a lot of different things

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Speaker 1: from building in terms of building your team. And that

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Speaker 1: doesn't mean necessarily those are the right things new to

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Speaker 1: build a team, just because you know, mathematically, right, you

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Speaker 1: know from the data that you have that that coverages

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Speaker 1: more valuable, not saying that pass rest isn't valuable, but

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Speaker 1: that's more valuable. And you know, what we've looked at

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Speaker 1: more and more closely is how important stability is in

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Speaker 1: this regard. And what I mean by that is if

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Speaker 1: someone does something well one year, how confident are you

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Speaker 1: then that they'll do it again the next year? You know,

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Speaker 1: how consistent is that performance? And the way that we

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Speaker 1: measure coverage is such that, UM, it leaves a lot

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Speaker 1: of open questions. So you know, if you're looking at

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Speaker 1: the result of a play, and this is kind of

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Speaker 1: the thesis of PFF, right, the result of the play

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Speaker 1: is often misleading relative to the process. Right. A quarterback

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Speaker 1: can make a perfect throw, the receiver can get intercepted. Um,

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Speaker 1: the quarterback can make an average throw on a screen pass,

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Speaker 1: and Tyreek Kale can take to the house any given play,

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Speaker 1: and those things are not going to be measured accurately,

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Speaker 1: you know, based on the process. And that's very true

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Speaker 1: of coverage, right. Um, Quarterbacks that make poor throws give

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Speaker 1: coverage players opportunities to make plays. And even if a

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Speaker 1: coverage player um a is Deontay Lee, one of our

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Speaker 1: newest analysts of PFF, said to me just the other day,

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Speaker 1: the Turkey. Thing with coverage is that it's the one

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Speaker 1: place on the field where you can play everything perfectly

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Speaker 1: and still get beat, and that is that's going to

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Speaker 1: lead to more inconsistency in their performance. So one of

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Speaker 1: the interesting things is the pass rush side of the

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Speaker 1: spectrum is totally different. Pass rush is a very consistent trait.

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Speaker 1: Right when people talk about traits, what they're really trying

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Speaker 1: to talk about is what is something endemic of the player,

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Speaker 1: What's something that I can trust is going to be

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Speaker 1: with that player in different situations to in scenarios I

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Speaker 1: can count on it um. Pass rush appears to be

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Speaker 1: a much more consistent element of play. It's a it's

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Speaker 1: more of a trait um, and we can measure it

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Speaker 1: a little bit better. So, you know, I think the

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Speaker 1: kind of big takeaway that we're looking at right now is, Okay,

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Speaker 1: if I am building a defense, how will I allocate

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Speaker 1: my resources to both leverage the fact that I know

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Speaker 1: coverage is really valuable and actually more valuable than pass rush,

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Speaker 1: but that individual players are less consistent from a coverage

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Speaker 1: perspective and they are from a pass rush perspective. And

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Speaker 1: I think what that leads to and we just did

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Speaker 1: this on the PFF forecast. I would recommend checking it out.

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Speaker 1: We did a draft in defensive players, and what I

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Speaker 1: think it leads you to is to be more confident

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Speaker 1: in using early picks on players who are confident are

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Speaker 1: going to be great pass rushers going forward, but to

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Speaker 1: spend a lot of picks on players who can cover,

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Speaker 1: because you are using more and more coverage players every year.

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Speaker 1: Last year, five coverage defenders was the most frequently used,

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Speaker 1: a lot of plus coverage players most frequently used defensive

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Speaker 1: um formation, and you need to have depth there. So

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Speaker 1: roster construction on the defensive side and how we view

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Speaker 1: defense I think is something that we're continuing to learn

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Speaker 1: more about. And I would say if I'm projecting forward

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Speaker 1: and I'm thinking about areas of play that we still

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Speaker 1: need to learn more about, it's certainly coverage. It's one

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Speaker 1: of the trickiest things to pin down. I don't I

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Speaker 1: think it's one of the weakest areas. I think PFF

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Speaker 1: does the best job of it out there, and a

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Speaker 1: hell of a lot better than any box score statu

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Speaker 1: is ever going to do for you. But it's still,

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Speaker 1: in my opinion, in the place we have the most

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Speaker 1: opportunity to grow and improve in terms of measuring player performance.

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Speaker 1: So that's kind of one of the big and maybe

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Speaker 1: the biggest thing that UM that I think is on

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Speaker 1: the horizon in terms of where we go next UM,

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Speaker 1: and we're studying it pretty closely here at PF. Let

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Speaker 1: me dig in on that a little bit because I

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Speaker 1: think another concept that we talk about with offense versus

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Speaker 1: defense too, and I think it works for D line

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Speaker 1: verse secondary. You want to avoid having, especially in the

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Speaker 1: secondary george a weakness, right, because you could have three

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Speaker 1: great coverage guys out there, you have one guy that

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Speaker 1: stinks guess where they're throwing the ball right, and the

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Speaker 1: other great guys don't really matter much if they're just

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Speaker 1: killing one side of the field. But with the defensive line,

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Speaker 1: you kind of need a guy that can win one

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Speaker 1: on one. Right. Is that all then shift the offensive line?

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Speaker 1: It helps other people out? So does that lend it

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Speaker 1: towards to your previous point even more so that that

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Speaker 1: individual top pass rush that you know the production you're

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Speaker 1: gonna get is maybe worth that investment. Given the secondary

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Speaker 1: is more of a numbers game where maybe you don't

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Speaker 1: need the super dominant guy, but you don't want to

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Speaker 1: have that really weak link, if you know, kind of

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Speaker 1: the comparison I'm making here. Yeah, I think there's Um

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Speaker 1: it's interesting because I I agree with that statement. Um. Overall,

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Speaker 1: the one thing that I think is interesting in in

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Speaker 1: prep and prepping for that defensive player draft, I kind

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Speaker 1: of came across this where I feel that the top

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Speaker 1: tier of pass rushers is also larger than the top

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Speaker 1: tier of coverage players, to the point where I would

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Speaker 1: actually say that, Um, you know, the gap between Aaron

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Speaker 1: Donald and the next best guy. Yeah, it's it's decent,

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Speaker 1: But I could make the argument, and I would actually

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Speaker 1: make this argument even though I think it's very very

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Speaker 1: very close, is that I feel more comfortable with Jalen

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Speaker 1: Ramsey over the next best coverage player. Um. Then I

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Speaker 1: then I do taking Aaron Donald. You know, if I

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Speaker 1: were to issue Aaron Donald and take the next best

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Speaker 1: defensive pass rusher, and my reasoning for that is that, um,

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Speaker 1: there are so few coverage players who are the best

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Speaker 1: regardless of where they are in the field. UM, And

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Speaker 1: Aaron Donald is interesting and that right he plays on

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Speaker 1: the interior. Now can you play outside? Absolutely? I think

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Speaker 1: what's interesting is where is it more valuable to have

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Speaker 1: that dominant performance. Is it on the interior or on

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Speaker 1: the outside, and our data would point to pressure from

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Speaker 1: the exterior from the outside being more valuable. Now that's

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Speaker 1: something that's very interesting because you think about the type

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Speaker 1: of quarterback that is becoming very problem in the league

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Speaker 1: and they're all very mobile. So, um, you know how

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Speaker 1: that how that matriculates down over the next couple of

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Speaker 1: years is interesting. So it's it is one of those

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Speaker 1: things where you think yourself, Okay, yes, I definitely want

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Speaker 1: depth in the secondary. Um, but if you were like

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Speaker 1: building your team out and you go, do I have

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Speaker 1: to have the best guy you know on the defensive line, Well,

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Speaker 1: there might be like seven or eight of those guys

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Speaker 1: where you feel like, yeah, and any given your this

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Speaker 1: could be the best guy. Um. Although I would say

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Speaker 1: Aaron Donald right, even though he plays in the interior,

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Speaker 1: has still taken that mantle. So um, it's tricky. The

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Speaker 1: thing that I would kind of take away from that

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Speaker 1: is like, there are different ways to skin a cat,

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Speaker 1: and as long as you're pointing in the right direction

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Speaker 1: in terms of understanding that coverage is valuable and it's

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Speaker 1: a weak link system, meaning I need a lot of

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Speaker 1: good players and if I have one weak link, I'm

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Speaker 1: going to get destroyed. And on the defensive line, it's

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Speaker 1: a little bit more of a strong link system where

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Speaker 1: I have one guy that's dominant. He's going to rise.

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Speaker 1: That tide is going to rise, raise all boats. UM,

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Speaker 1: I think you can build your team in slightly different

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Speaker 1: ways and still have a very good defense. Well, how

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Speaker 1: about the approach of Giants have taken because they have

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Speaker 1: their one dominant quote unquote pass rusher and Leonard Williams

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Speaker 1: eleven and a half sacks last year, inside guy, not

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Speaker 1: an outside guy, and they have very much taking the

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Speaker 1: edge rusher by committee approach. They have like eight or

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Speaker 1: nine guys in that room. Is that a structure that

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Speaker 1: you guys have seen work or is that something where

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Speaker 1: you're really going edge rush by committee can get a

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Speaker 1: little bit dicey with getting consistent pressure on the quarterback. Well,

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Speaker 1: this is and this is another interesting point, is where

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Speaker 1: does scheme come into this? And UM, which is easier

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Speaker 1: to scheme a good pass rush or a good coverage UM,

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Speaker 1: And all of the answers would point towards all the

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Speaker 1: data and research would point towards UM pass rush being

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Speaker 1: an easier thing to scheme. Um. You've seen it with

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Speaker 1: the Patriots consistently. How many times have they had a

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Speaker 1: dominant defense which generated pressure, maybe not at the league

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Speaker 1: high rate, but generated pressure UM, and did so with

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Speaker 1: guys people have never heard of. I mean, Kyle Finny

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Speaker 1: led them in pressures like you know two years ago.

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Speaker 1: And and then he's you know, switched teams twice and

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Speaker 1: is now back. UM. And that is something that we

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Speaker 1: all saw last year. You go look at the Steelers,

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Speaker 1: for example, um lead the league in pressure rate and

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Speaker 1: they blitzed at the highest rate in the league. The

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Speaker 1: Ravens as well. UM. Tell me. The best pass rusher

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Speaker 1: on the Ravens last year, He's was a free agent,

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Speaker 1: Matthew june On and they let him go. Um. You know.

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Speaker 1: And so like the Ravens are if I were power

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Speaker 1: ranking the smartest front offices slash coaching staff us in

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Speaker 1: the in the NFL. UM, certainly the Ravens are top three,

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Speaker 1: if not one. UM. And they said, oh, we actually

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Speaker 1: think we can scheme our our pass rush. So the

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Speaker 1: Giants approach makes a lot of sense to me. And

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Speaker 1: in fact, like even looking at how they built their

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Speaker 1: coverage unit. You know, James Bradberry coming over there. He's

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Speaker 1: been really strong since he got out of the murderers

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Speaker 1: row of the NFC South. UM, and they've invested in

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Speaker 1: you know, depth along that defensive secondary. Um. But you

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Speaker 1: can scheme pass rush and you can do so with blitzing. Um.

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Speaker 1: You can do so with with a single player who

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Speaker 1: can take up some uh some space and attention. You

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Speaker 1: know Steelers with t J. Watt obviously, Um, he's their

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Speaker 1: main focus, but a lot of other guys on that

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Speaker 1: D line et So. UM. I like it from that standpoint,

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Speaker 1: and I also like from this standpoint. I think about

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Speaker 1: this also with coverage players. You're great. Coverage players are

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Speaker 1: on the field every single play the game. Receivers switch

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Speaker 1: out all the time, so whenever you're defensive back, you're

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Speaker 1: always going gets to go with fresh legs. Darius Butler

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Speaker 1: has told this to me many times. UM. Great. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know the wonderful secondary player played for the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: book with the Colts and now is doing a lot

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Speaker 1: of great media work. And you can apply this to

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Speaker 1: the defensive line offensive line equation, where the offensive linemen

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Speaker 1: are out there every single play and it's the defensive

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Speaker 1: lineman where you can switch them in and out and

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Speaker 1: get fresh legs out there, and a guy with fresh legs,

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Speaker 1: these guys are incredible athletes. That's the other thing to

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Speaker 1: take note of. The defensive linemen are blonkers defensive you know, athletes,

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Speaker 1: And so if you get a guy out there with

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Speaker 1: fresh legs, like against an offensive tackle or guard who

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Speaker 1: wasn't amazing and is tired, um, that's a super valuable

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Speaker 1: edge for you to have, especially if you have a

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Speaker 1: good scheme. So I generally like the direction that the

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Speaker 1: Giants defense is taking. I actually think the Giants in

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Speaker 1: general from a lot of different aspects. Maybe a couple

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Speaker 1: of years ago it felt like it was not going

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Speaker 1: in the right direction. You take a running back that high,

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Speaker 1: you know, But now they seem to be starting to

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Speaker 1: invest in some of those really ordin areas um, and

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Speaker 1: you know, looking up a little bit. You know, people

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Speaker 1: question sometimes I don't want to jump to some other topics,

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Speaker 1: but we'll stick on the coverage part of this. You

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Speaker 1: know the value of linebackers and safeties, you know. I

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Speaker 1: imagine for you guys, grading their coverage sometimes probably can

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Speaker 1: be tough because they're not in a lot of actual

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Speaker 1: man on man situations. You know, deep center fielder, if

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Speaker 1: he's playing the right depth, the bull never gets thrown.

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Speaker 1: The coach involves a job that he did, but you

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Speaker 1: don't see it on the field. So how have you

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Speaker 1: guys evolved in the value of those linebackers and safety

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Speaker 1: positions as the middle of the field has become a

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Speaker 1: more frequent target in the passing game where you can

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Speaker 1: really you know, churn out some easy yards for these offenses. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's a very interesting light of UM the UH Fred

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Speaker 1: Warners signing. UM. What I'm assuming maybe at the point

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Speaker 1: that this airing the Darius Lanard signing that will top

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Speaker 1: that UM and how teams are valuing those those linebackers

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Speaker 1: because they have increasingly value them over safeties of late,

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Speaker 1: I think the gap between UM that like high end

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Speaker 1: of the salary spectrum for them is growing to about

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Speaker 1: and UM. It's very tricky because and this is another

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Speaker 1: this is one of the areas of exploration within UM,

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Speaker 1: within coverage that that we're doing right now, what does

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Speaker 1: it mean to not target a linebacker? You know, what

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Speaker 1: does it mean to not target even a guy like

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Speaker 1: Jalen Ramsey? Right, UM, it depends on the player they're covering. UM,

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Speaker 1: it depends on you know, am I not targeting this

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Speaker 1: guy because another player is open, or am I not

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Speaker 1: targeting this guy because I wanted to and I couldn't

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Speaker 1: because he was so good at covering them. The other

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Speaker 1: thing is, often the linebacker position is covering a guy

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Speaker 1: that is one of the worst receivers. Now, obviously, smart

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Speaker 1: offenses are going to target those guys, but oftentimes it's

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Speaker 1: a running back or you know, it's a third wide

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Speaker 1: receiver in the slot or something like that. It's not

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Speaker 1: your number one option, So it's quantifying that is definitely tricky.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Fred Warner, I think you know, if we're

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Speaker 1: looking at like where we went in our draft, we

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Speaker 1: did in the forecast give you a little teaser here.

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Speaker 1: None of us in the first eight rounds took a linebacker, UM,

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Speaker 1: And we took safeties that a lot of us described

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Speaker 1: as players that could play all over the field. Because

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Speaker 1: who do you feel more confident in coverage, UM, Jamal

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Speaker 1: Adams or Fred Warner. Now that's a tight one based

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Speaker 1: on last year. Jamal Adams had it not great year

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Speaker 1: in coverage last year. UM, But I think you're starting

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Speaker 1: to get to that position where you go, am I

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Speaker 1: really losing that much against the run? I mean, maybe

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Speaker 1: a little bit, But what's more valuable it's the past

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Speaker 1: game and pass coverage. So it's a very tricky spot.

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Speaker 1: I think the league is actually valuing linebackers who can

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Speaker 1: cover a lot, and maybe we'll find out that that's

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Speaker 1: actually something where we're overcompensating for linebackers as as a

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Speaker 1: whole in general because they're not good at coverage, and

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Speaker 1: really we should be thinking about more multi dimensional, non

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Speaker 1: positional players that can simply cover anywhere on the field.

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Speaker 1: Don't miss that on your chance to experience a premier

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Speaker 1: hospitality experience watching Giant games, world class concerts in one

329
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Speaker 1: eight NYG is a Giants dot com slash suits for

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Speaker 1: more information. Can you talk a little bit about, generally speaking,

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Speaker 1: why you guys value offense in team building more than

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Speaker 1: defense in terms of consistency year to year. We've talked

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Speaker 1: a lot about whether or not the Giants defense can

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Speaker 1: repeat that performance from last year, and now that's not

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Speaker 1: necessarily something that happens off in the NFL, there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of fluctuation and defensive rankings from year to year.

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Speaker 1: Why is offense more consistent and why then, in your opinion,

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Speaker 1: is it makes more sense for franchises to focus on

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Speaker 1: building that offense first and then trying to figure things

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Speaker 1: out on defense later. Yeah. The the big reason and

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Speaker 1: this gets back to the consists and see argument. And

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Speaker 1: this is a good thing for Giant fans to think

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Speaker 1: about this year. Is so, imagine a game where an

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Speaker 1: offense plays well and a defense plays well. I'm sorry,

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Speaker 1: an offense plays well, and then imagine other game where

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Speaker 1: defense plays well. Coming out of that game where the

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Speaker 1: offense played well, what are the reasons that the offense

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Speaker 1: played well. Well. It's probably they have a good quarterback

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Speaker 1: and they've got some players that can make a play,

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Speaker 1: you know, after they get the ball. But it's not

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Speaker 1: like eight things going right. It's a couple of things.

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Speaker 1: But a defense, if you have one thing that doesn't

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Speaker 1: go well in other words, you have a weak link

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Speaker 1: in your coverage. You might have a really nice pass

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Speaker 1: rush see the Eagles um and it won't matter because

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Speaker 1: that one week link can torpedo a great performance by

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Speaker 1: the rest of your players. Whereas on offense, let's say

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Speaker 1: I have a great quarterback and my left guard isn't great,

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Speaker 1: it's still be okay. Patrick Mahome is going to be

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Speaker 1: all right. If the left guard doesn't play particularly well, right,

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Speaker 1: if the third receiver doesn't play particularly well, right, Tom

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Speaker 1: Brady is still going to figure out a way. He's

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Speaker 1: still gonna be all right. And so you can. The

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Speaker 1: players that you need on offense to be really good

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Speaker 1: are just fewer than the ones that you need on defense.

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Speaker 1: And so it's easier. And I use the word easier

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Speaker 1: in quotes there because it's not easy regardless, but it's

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Speaker 1: easier to pinpoint how to build that you know, the

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Speaker 1: path towards a really great offense than it is a defense.

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Speaker 1: And once you reach that point, it's easier to sustain

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Speaker 1: the really good offense than it is the really good defense. Again,

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Speaker 1: not easy by any stretch to do either. But on defense,

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Speaker 1: you are you could do everything right. Again, I've said

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Speaker 1: this earlier. It's the same kind of concept. You could

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Speaker 1: do everything right and luck could totally screw you over.

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Speaker 1: And that's why it's important to go into two seasons

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Speaker 1: with expectations that are taking that into account. Um, you know,

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Speaker 1: did you have good turn over luck last year? Did

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Speaker 1: you play offenses that weren't great? Um, did you have

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Speaker 1: a fairly healthy season. All of those things generally regress

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Speaker 1: either back up towards the meme or back down towards

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Speaker 1: the meme, and they do so more frequently than what

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Speaker 1: would happen on offense, because on offense, you're counting on

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Speaker 1: less players being impacted by those regressions, and so you're

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Speaker 1: more likely, you know, to see consistency. And the last

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Speaker 1: thing that I'll point out is that we mathematically have

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Speaker 1: you know, the statistics that we collect are more stable

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Speaker 1: for offensive players. So, um, you know, success of an

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Speaker 1: offensive player, I feel a little more confident than that

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Speaker 1: of a defensive player. And so even in those isolated

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Speaker 1: positions like let's say I'm just looking at cornerback and

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Speaker 1: uh quarterback for example, or cornerback and wide receiver is

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00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:51,000
Speaker 1: a good one because they oppose each other, and more

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Speaker 1: confident in a wide receiver continuing to play well. If

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Speaker 1: you played well one year playing well the next year,

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Speaker 1: then I would be for a corner You mentioned turnover

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Speaker 1: luck in that answer. I think I've asked you this

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Speaker 1: question every year we've done this, and I'll ask it

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Speaker 1: again because I think we both know. I think of

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Speaker 1: the time, the team that wins the turnover battle wins

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Speaker 1: the game. Is it all uck? Is there something teams

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Speaker 1: can do to get better at either getting turnovers, are

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Speaker 1: getting takeaways preventing turnovers or is this really just something

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Speaker 1: that comes and goes and is the beauty kind of

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Speaker 1: the randomness of the NFL. Well, it's a great question

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Speaker 1: because it's like yes and no. Because if your only

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Speaker 1: goal is to increase the chances of getting a turnover,

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Speaker 1: that's fine, But that is a little bit skewed because, um,

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Speaker 1: let's take an extreme example, and this is an extreme example,

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Speaker 1: but it's used a lot in the NFL. Cover zero

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Speaker 1: blitz so cover zero blitzes have a higher turnover really play, right,

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Speaker 1: But and that's even so things that don't even end

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Speaker 1: up turning into turnovers that are should be. And the

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Speaker 1: reason I mentioned that is because it's more consistent year

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Speaker 1: year than just pure turnovers, which a bumble can bounce

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Speaker 1: one way, a defender can drop and open interception. Right,

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Speaker 1: those things are flukey, but consistently putting the ball in

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Speaker 1: harm's way is more stable. Um, you can try and

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Speaker 1: maximize that by blitzing up frequently and doing all these

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Speaker 1: exotic things. Um, but what does that do on average? Right?

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Speaker 1: It is your only goal to force turnovers? Or are

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Speaker 1: you trying to stop the team? You know more often

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Speaker 1: than not. So it's I believe and looking at the

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Speaker 1: data as I just mentioned, it's the case where you

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Speaker 1: can do things that increase the chances of getting a

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Speaker 1: turnover opportunity. But the important thing there is what does

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Speaker 1: that do to you? If you don't write what? How?

430
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 1: How solid are you in your scheme? Because um, you

431
00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 1: know the Patriots can execute it, but you know the

432
00:22:56,560 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 1: Jets can't, and so you know it's it's it's uh,

433
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 1: it's not a like one you know, one trick kind

434
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:05,959
Speaker 1: of thing where you get it right on one end

435
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 1: of spectrum and the other one's just gonna tag along.

436
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 1: You've got to be solid there. So would I be

437
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 1: looking to you know, for example, if I'm the chiefs

438
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 1: am I sitting out there trying to you know, get

439
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 1: a turnover every play? Not really like I just need

440
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 1: you to have a couple of possessions where you stall

441
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 1: out and kick a field goal. Um, if I have

442
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:25,719
Speaker 1: a really poor offense and my goal is to make

443
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 1: it to the playoffs, then yeah, I am probably trying

444
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 1: to force a lot more turnovers. I think we're talking

445
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:34,199
Speaker 1: range of outcomes, right, and I think that explains I

446
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 1: think a lot of the frustration that people in the

447
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 1: different camps that are like, you know, run the ball

448
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 1: on early down to getting third and short and do

449
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:42,880
Speaker 1: your thing, versus the guys that say, no, you want

450
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 1: to thoroughly, you have a chance of a bigger play.

451
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 1: You avoid third down altogether, I think, and even with coaches,

452
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,919
Speaker 1: it always comes down to how comfortable you are with

453
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,360
Speaker 1: a larger range of outcomes and variants in your outcomes

454
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,200
Speaker 1: from possession to possession. Right. You might have a disastrous

455
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 1: possession where you throw an interception on the first intent

456
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 1: where the coach wants to line ends of the wall,

457
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 1: but you have more opportunities to score when you take

458
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 1: everything in totality. When if you run the ball you

459
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 1: feel good. All right, I'm in throwing and three, I

460
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 1: feel good about this. You're not going to have that

461
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 1: bad first that interception. But it's almost a psychological trick.

462
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people play on themselves, right. Yeah,

463
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 1: it's a self fulfilling prophecy. Right. So if my goal

464
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 1: is to get to third and three, then I've pre

465
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 1: disposed myself to think of certain things as successes and

466
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 1: certain things as failures, and I'm then less prepared for

467
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 1: situations that like throwing on first down that should be

468
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 1: the norm, UM, throwing on second and long, that should

469
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: be the norm. Um. I think of an example, UM

470
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 1: with fourth downs. So one of my beliefs has been

471
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 1: that one of the reasons teams are so terrified of

472
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 1: going for it on fourth and short, not to mention,

473
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 1: you know, if they fail, people are gonna yell at them,

474
00:24:55,320 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: But it's also not like something that dominates your preparation. UM.

475
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,439
Speaker 1: And the Saints a team that have historically gone for

476
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 1: fourth and shorts more frequently than most teams, although UM

477
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 1: of late the Ravens and the Bills UM have caught

478
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 1: them there UM and overtaken them. Is that they used

479
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 1: to practice fourth and goal, fourth and short and UM.

480
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 1: You know they would put you know, they would put

481
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 1: people's pride on the line, and uh, I think you know,

482
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 1: even put some dollar bills on it as well. And

483
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 1: so you know that kind of putting game like scenarios

484
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 1: into your practice. Um, actually practicing like it that that matters, Right.

485
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 1: You can't just go out there and say, oh, yeah,

486
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 1: today we're gonna throw the ball in first down. I

487
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 1: hope you're ready, you know. Um. In the same it

488
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 1: goes for like, you know, all the way to fourth

489
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 1: town obviously. Um. But it's a mentality. You know, if

490
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 1: you accept that, you know, these are the things that

491
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 1: can win football games, and you're not afraid of them. Um,

492
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,360
Speaker 1: they become the norm for you. You're comfortable. I think

493
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 1: you know, ultimately you'll see more success there. You mentioned

494
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:01,919
Speaker 1: to situational football there in terms of going for it

495
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 1: on fourth downs, and it really is such a big

496
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 1: part of preparation for these teams that you know they do.

497
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 1: You know, installation on first and second was just one

498
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,920
Speaker 1: day of practice a week, right. Then they do red zone,

499
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 1: then they do third down, two minute, take your pick.

500
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 1: But at the same time, when you analyze the results

501
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 1: of those, they're all naturally a small sample sized deal, right,

502
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 1: So it's hard to take a lot out of out

503
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 1: of them. So how do you guys balance the fact

504
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 1: that they're small sample sizes but they are so important

505
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 1: to the result of the game red zone specifically, right,

506
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 1: seven points us three points is a huge freaking deal

507
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 1: in evaluating how you determine what teams are good at

508
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 1: what players are good when situational football is a small

509
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:42,160
Speaker 1: sample size yet still so important to wins and losses. Yeah,

510
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 1: the key there is looking at decisions and not results.

511
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:50,360
Speaker 1: Um So, is a coach that makes the right decision

512
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 1: to go for it on ten straight fourth downs, but

513
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 1: only um, you know, capitalizes on two of the ten,

514
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 1: is he've had coach? No, not at all. Now I

515
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 1: say that, like, let's assume they called decent plays there, right, Um,

516
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: that they've practiced and their team is prepared for, and

517
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 1: those are things we can't totally know. Um So it's

518
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,880
Speaker 1: what we try and look at is what is most consistent. Okay, Well,

519
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 1: what's most consistent is the decision that coach is going

520
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:18,919
Speaker 1: to make to go for it. What's going to be

521
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:22,159
Speaker 1: less consistent is whether he succeeds or fails on like

522
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:25,880
Speaker 1: fifty forty five propositions. Right, you know you can. It's

523
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 1: basically a coin flip. You can flip a coin ten times.

524
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:29,919
Speaker 1: You can do it right now, And yeah, you expect

525
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:31,680
Speaker 1: to go five for ten. And if it was a

526
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,400
Speaker 1: weighted coin, like a fourth down is right, and say

527
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 1: it was sixty heads forty percent tails, you would expect

528
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 1: six heads and four tails. But you can go flip

529
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,639
Speaker 1: them and you're not going to get that right. Um.

530
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 1: And so should you come back and go, oh, like

531
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 1: you know this coin is bologny? No, Like, what you

532
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 1: should do is realize that it's a small sample and

533
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 1: the process is the thing that you're looking for. That's

534
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 1: so tough though, because it's still a small sample size sports,

535
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 1: small sample size in terms of plays, in terms of decisions,

536
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 1: in terms of games, and often you know, coaches are

537
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 1: judged on that small sample and so that's why you know,

538
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 1: it can be hard to convince an owner like, hey,

539
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 1: trust the process, right, We've seen that in Philadelphia be

540
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,719
Speaker 1: a very tough thing. Um. And uh so you know

541
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 1: what we especially on fourth downs, that's what we look at,

542
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 1: like where are people making the right decisions? And then

543
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 1: you can use that to your advantage. You know, maybe

544
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 1: if you're looking at you know, different angles of ways

545
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 1: to like invest and so in these kinds of things

546
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: with you know, I know, sports betting is not legal

547
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:34,880
Speaker 1: in New York, although it's legal in you know, other

548
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 1: parts very close to New York, Um, New Jersey where

549
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 1: we are right now, where you are right now exactly so. Um,

550
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 1: so you can you know, see those things generally regressing,

551
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 1: you know, back to the mean and take advantage of it.

552
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 1: Red zone is another kind of very interesting aspect because

553
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 1: red zone and third down I kind of put in

554
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 1: the same bucket where I can bet you, like any

555
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 1: amount of money that if you turn on a pregame

556
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 1: show and they go around, they go, Okay, coach, what's

557
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 1: the key to the game. You're gonna get at least

558
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 1: at least one third down and one red zone? Comment

559
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 1: per game? Turnovers is the third one, by the way,

560
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 1: and turnovers that yeah, exactly, force turnover has got to

561
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 1: execute in the red zone, got to execute on third down? Yes? Um,

562
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 1: But what's wrong with executing on first and second down

563
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 1: so that you don't get to third down? And the

564
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 1: way that I would think about that is would you

565
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 1: rather have too would you rather focus on executing on

566
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 1: two downs where a team doesn't know as much about

567
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 1: what you're gonna do, or focus on executing on a

568
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 1: down that presupposes you failed on those first two downs

569
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 1: and are now in a situation where your hand, unless

570
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 1: you're on third and short, is basically been called for you.

571
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 1: Right Like, if you're in third and six, you're throwing

572
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 1: the ball and the team knows it. If you're in

573
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 1: second six, you have a lot of opportunity to fake

574
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 1: out the other team. Now, what I throw in most

575
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 1: of those situations, absolutely, But what I get creative there? Yes,

576
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 1: and um, I think that's the important thing. So when

577
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 1: I look at red zone, I go, you don't want

578
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 1: to execute in the red zone, absolutely, I also want

579
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 1: to execute everywhere else on the field. I want to

580
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 1: take chances to try and score when I'm at the

581
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 1: thirty for example, right, Um, and uh, you know there's

582
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 1: there's a process there in terms of calling you know,

583
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 1: good plays and good situations, not running and disadvantageous situations

584
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 1: actually running in like short yardage situations even if it

585
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 1: is third down, you know you can go for it.

586
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 1: And fourth down, Um, you know, leveraging quarterback runs for

587
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 1: example near the goal line. Um. You know things like that,

588
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 1: throwing the ball to or past the sticks you know,

589
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 1: on on those laid downs, like to give yourself a chance.

590
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 1: Those are all things that we can have more confidence in.

591
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: But I would say, instead of worrying so much about

592
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 1: some of those low samples to situations, look at the

593
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 1: you know, the process, say okay, I think this a

594
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 1: good process, great, and then really focus on that are

595
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 1: we executing on those other places first and second down,

596
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 1: other plays outside of the red zone that if you do,

597
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 1: can mitigate some of the reliance on those really low

598
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 1: sample situations. How much is winning in the league now,

599
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 1: George avoiding bad plays and not screwing up versus trying

600
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 1: to make those spectacular plays that make a difference. I

601
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 1: know it's a very basic question, but I do think

602
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 1: it actually encompasses a lot of different ways you want

603
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 1: to roster building, any kind of structure, how you work

604
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 1: Offenses are getting better and better, UM, passing, quarterback play,

605
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 1: quarterback athleticism. UM. And I say this all the time,

606
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 1: like a field goal is not it is not a victory.

607
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 1: You know, I kind of like it, And I probably

608
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 1: said this on your podcast before, Like a field goal

609
00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 1: is is like a participation trophy. You know, thanks for

610
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 1: coming out, Like we appreciate you jogging out of the field. Here,

611
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 1: here's three points, you know, go away, Um, taking chances

612
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 1: to score seven points when the opposing offenses are getting

613
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 1: better is something that you should do more and more. Um.

614
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 1: And the math bears that out. Playing to keep it close,

615
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 1: not to lose, to for field position, for time of possession,

616
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 1: those things are all largely a myth and a fairy tale. UM.

617
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 1: And so to answer your question, it's more about scoring

618
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 1: touchdowns than it is avoiding interceptions. Now on the extremes,

619
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 1: are you going to screw yourself? Absolutely right, I throw

620
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 1: thirty interceptions and win a whole bunch of games. I'm

621
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 1: not going to bet on it, right, But I want

622
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 1: to take chances to score points. I want my team

623
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 1: to feel comfortable with that, not to be kind of

624
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 1: blindsided by it. Um. This is increasingly becoming a big

625
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 1: play league. We've seen the Chiefs to it for now

626
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 1: three years, where they score more touchdowns on first and

627
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 1: second down on plays outside of the forty, outside of

628
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 1: the twenty than just about any team than any team actually,

629
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 1: I should say, in the NFL. And that is kind

630
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 1: of the moniker. Now, not everyone can have with Patrick Mahomes,

631
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 1: but you're looking at some of these teams who don't

632
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 1: quite have Patrick Mahomes. But are starting to create offenses

633
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 1: that are almost as lethal. You're looking at you know,

634
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:36,239
Speaker 1: teams like the Bills with Josh Allen. UM. I think

635
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: the Chargers with Justin Herbert will be very interesting this year. UM.

636
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 1: You know a lot of these young quarterbacks who are

637
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 1: explosive and can throw the ball down the football field

638
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 1: and also make plays with their legs. You know the

639
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 1: Ravens with Kyler Murray and uh, and then you know

640
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. UM, the Seahawks are a great

641
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:56,240
Speaker 1: example of that with Russell Wilson his pinpoint deep accuracy. UM.

642
00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 1: Even the Bucks last year, everyone thinks Brady Digson dunks

643
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 1: it down the field, Go watch the Bucks play for

644
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 1: last year Tom Brady threw the ball down the football

645
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 1: field often and did it well, and their offense was

646
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 1: explosive and you know it helped them win a Super Bowl.

647
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 1: Limited Giant season tickets are on sale now for the season.

648
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 1: In addition to ticket savings, membership benefits include access to

649
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 1: exclusive events, experiences, pre sales, and more. You can lock

650
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,319
Speaker 1: on your seat start You're just one called eight eight

651
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 1: n y G. Visit Giants dot com slash tickets for

652
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 1: more information. We had Steve, your colleague, Steve Palazolo on

653
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,040
Speaker 1: the show a couple months ago. He broke down. It

654
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:33,799
Speaker 1: was right after he did the offensive line rankings, which

655
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 1: were not kind to the New York Football Giants, and

656
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 1: we spoke. But it was with quincid Its, it really was,

657
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,319
Speaker 1: and we spoke about I thought the reasoning behind it

658
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 1: was sound, that made sense. So let's talk about this

659
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 1: more generally, George. If you're having an offensive one that struggles,

660
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 1: how does that impact your offense? And how not bad

661
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:52,279
Speaker 1: do you have to get your offensive line where it's

662
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 1: neutral and your quarterback and your receivers and you're running

663
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 1: back can operate as they normally would without having to

664
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:02,880
Speaker 1: make tingencies for what's going on in front of them.

665
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 1: You can't have disasters. Um, that that's and there's a

666
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,279
Speaker 1: couple of ways to mitigate that. The first is, you're

667
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:15,759
Speaker 1: starting five. Can't have glaring, glaring weaknesses, particularly on the edges. Right,

668
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 1: it's you got a tackle who literally can't stand up. Um,

669
00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to put it. You don't have to

670
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 1: help him out every single play takes one less player

671
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 1: out of the play, Like, that's really bad for your offense.

672
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 1: You know, there's a reason red cards sucking soccer. You

673
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 1: don't want to play. And by the way, see Chiefs

674
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 1: Super Bowl versus Bucks pass rush, great example, great example.

675
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:39,720
Speaker 1: Um they were totally unprepared, you know, the Chiefs. Honestly,

676
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 1: I thought it had a lot of hubris in that

677
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 1: because you know, I thought they came out and played

678
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 1: as if it wasn't gonna matter as much. Um, And

679
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 1: well it did. Um. So that's the first thing. The

680
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 1: second thing is what are you doing outside of that

681
00:35:56,120 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 1: starting five to mitigate disaster? Injuries are going to happen.

682
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 1: They're going to happen on your offensive line. Do you

683
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:05,959
Speaker 1: have depth there? That is a huge key. I would

684
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:10,840
Speaker 1: rather spend money on depth then on a stud left tackle.

685
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:13,839
Speaker 1: And look, there are some great left tackles out there.

686
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 1: Trent Williams is amazing. Now do I actually have a

687
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 1: problem with that contract? That really it was well structured

688
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:23,760
Speaker 1: and he's absolutely amazing. But if I'm given the choice,

689
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 1: you know, and I say, look, I can either have

690
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 1: a great left tackle or I can have an average one,

691
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 1: but great depth across the line, I'm choosing depth because

692
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:34,320
Speaker 1: I know that war of attrition is going to happen.

693
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:37,320
Speaker 1: And this other thing, which is very important, which is

694
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: the way you scheme your offense. The way your quarterback

695
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 1: executes the offense will determine a lot of what happens.

696
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 1: Will they be able to get the ball out on time?

697
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 1: You know, will they take on more pressure on themselves

698
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 1: than than normal because they hold onto the ball. We

699
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 1: know that that's a quarterback trait. Um. See Wilson, Russell

700
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 1: and Seattle who holds on the ball for about three

701
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 1: seconds on average in Houston. Great example, Yeah, another fantastic example.

702
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,879
Speaker 1: So those are all things that can help with your

703
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 1: offensive line, your protection, you know, as a as a

704
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,840
Speaker 1: whole um. But the two big things that are you

705
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 1: gotta have solid play across. It's not you know, even

706
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 1: if it's just slightly uh, you know, below average, Like

707
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 1: that's not a big deal. You're gonna be fine. Yeah, exactly.

708
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:27,319
Speaker 1: I know. I'll take a twenty rank line. I'll take

709
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 1: even a you know, I think where you start getting

710
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:33,279
Speaker 1: there is you get twenty six seven, maybe twenty seven

711
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:36,360
Speaker 1: three two. It's like, man, it's gonna be hard for

712
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 1: you to win, Like it's just gonna be hard. But

713
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 1: yet number twenty through I'm not terrified of that. I

714
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:46,439
Speaker 1: think it'll be interesting to watch the Bengals this year.

715
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 1: Will they be able to have an offensive line that

716
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:51,879
Speaker 1: is just not terrible? And what will that look like

717
00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 1: with that offense? Um? You know, and I think the

718
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 1: Giants are really in that same boat. Well, Andrew Thomas

719
00:37:57,360 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 1: kind of not be that huge week link that he

720
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,279
Speaker 1: was to start out the season last year. UM. And

721
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 1: you know, like towards the end of the season, did

722
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 1: it get a little better, Yes, but like we still

723
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:12,399
Speaker 1: need to see it improve. Um. And if that's the case, right,

724
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 1: then you can start to have that um stability across

725
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,839
Speaker 1: the offensive line, and um, that will obviously help the

726
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:21,359
Speaker 1: offense out quite a bad Alright, one or two more here,

727
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 1: George Daniel Jones, we have to talk about him. I

728
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,399
Speaker 1: did specifics on him with Steve, so we're not gonna

729
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 1: do that necessarily. But what is it that the really

730
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 1: good quarterbacks in this league do consistently? I know it's

731
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 1: different from player to player, but what are some of

732
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:38,839
Speaker 1: the things that Giant fans can kind of look at

733
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 1: a checklist as they move into season three and say,

734
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:44,960
Speaker 1: all right, Daniel Jones, let's watch for ABC and D

735
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:48,319
Speaker 1: because he does these things, well, odds are he's going

736
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 1: to be a pretty good quarterback for us for a

737
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 1: long time. Yeah. It's a great question and and a

738
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 1: lot of resources for UM Giants fans on pf dot com. UM.

739
00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 1: One of the ones that I use really frequently is

740
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 1: the Quarterback Annual because it just gives me a snapshot

741
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 1: of what, you know, that quarterback or all other quarterbacks

742
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 1: looked like across the league. And obviously you can see

743
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:12,799
Speaker 1: how they you know, grade from week to week and

744
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 1: stuff like that. So if you want to follow up

745
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 1: on these, you know where to go. UM. But Daniel

746
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:21,560
Speaker 1: Jones is really interesting. What really impressed me about him

747
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 1: last year and where I think you've got room for

748
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,799
Speaker 1: some real hope is I look at you know, I

749
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 1: look at some of those bigger throws down the football field,

750
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:34,319
Speaker 1: and you know, is it something that I was like

751
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:37,919
Speaker 1: really excited about in year one? You know, we made

752
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 1: big time throws at about a four percent clip. Last

753
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 1: year that improved about five. UM, starting to get closer

754
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 1: to that top end of the league, UM in terms

755
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:51,120
Speaker 1: of making big throws that are accurate down the football

756
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:56,400
Speaker 1: field and the turnover worthy plays, those throws where you go, man, like,

757
00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 1: those were really rough to watch. That decreased by over

758
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 1: two percent last year, And so I think about that

759
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 1: kind of equation there and I go, Okay, can I

760
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 1: continue to limit those really bad throws? And can I

761
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 1: continue to make those pretty good throws? And if you

762
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 1: can keep moving in the direction on both of those,

763
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:16,480
Speaker 1: you'll be in good shape. I think there are a

764
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 1: couple of other places that I talked about this a lot,

765
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 1: but this is a place that Daniel Jones graded really well,

766
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 1: which is from a clean pocket thirteenth highest grade out

767
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 1: of thirty two quarterbacks last year in raw PF grade

768
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 1: from a clean pocket, you know, that's consistent from season

769
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:33,279
Speaker 1: to season more so than anything else. So that gives

770
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:35,240
Speaker 1: me some hope there as well, and I would continue

771
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 1: to monitor that, even if maybe he gets off to

772
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 1: a rocky start, you know, come to PFF and check

773
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 1: out how he's doing from a clean pocket. Um. And

774
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:44,879
Speaker 1: then I think the last thing, and I guess maybe

775
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 1: it's kind of two things. Fumbles are obviously something that

776
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 1: has been a huge bug boo with Daniel Jones, and

777
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 1: that can't continue. You know, we talked about turnover with

778
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:56,399
Speaker 1: the play rate. Those are both throws that are bad

779
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 1: and fumbles that are bad. That number needs to come

780
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 1: down regard us of where he was at last year,

781
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 1: which was, you know, the middle of the league. But

782
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 1: eight that are but still know where you want it

783
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:09,279
Speaker 1: to be exactly. We're trending, but we need to keep

784
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:11,399
Speaker 1: going or else we're gonna stay in the middle, right,

785
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 1: and no one wants to be in the middle. You're

786
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:14,920
Speaker 1: not looking for the guy at eighteen. You're looking for

787
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 1: the guy at eight who can maybe get to five.

788
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 1: The last thing that I would note is sixty eight

789
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 1: point four passer rating throwing in between ten and nineteen

790
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:26,759
Speaker 1: yards down the football field. Those are the areas that

791
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:29,120
Speaker 1: area of the field. My buddy Eric Eager, my co

792
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 1: host on the forecast, calls those doubles. You gotta hit

793
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 1: doubles to win. UM. Those are really big plays that

794
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 1: you can make more frequently than those twenty plus yard plays. UM.

795
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 1: But they are worth so much there, worth so much

796
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:45,919
Speaker 1: and so UM. Looking for that offense to generate more

797
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 1: UM performance in those zones, UM, and for Daniel Jones

798
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 1: to to hit those throws UM, that will be a huge,

799
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 1: huge area of improvement if he improves there. You know,

800
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 1: I think we can scrape into that, you know, top

801
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 1: twelve range. Yeah, saying for Kyler Murray. By the way,

802
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 1: he doesn't have any of those doubles on exact way either,

803
00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:05,760
Speaker 1: same same draft class, which is you know that middle

804
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:07,640
Speaker 1: of the field between the corners and safeties is that

805
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:09,959
Speaker 1: you need to have confidence to put the ball there,

806
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,480
Speaker 1: and that comes with time. All right, let's let's wrap

807
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 1: it up to your George. Anything that you missed you

808
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:16,400
Speaker 1: think you know you want to bring up that we

809
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:19,799
Speaker 1: should talk about anything exciting happening in PFF. You want

810
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 1: the people to know about and tell the folks about

811
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 1: where they can findow your products. Yeah, well, go to

812
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 1: PFF dot com. A couple of things that I would

813
00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:29,800
Speaker 1: keep an eye on. We've talked about this. A bunch um.

814
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 1: Where can you bet on your team to do well?

815
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 1: A couple of places I love I personally, John, I

816
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:38,640
Speaker 1: love player props. It's so fun because you can actually dig.

817
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 1: It's just that player that you care about. You can

818
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:43,920
Speaker 1: root for him, kind of like fantasy, but less you know,

819
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 1: dealing with the team. He just got that one player.

820
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 1: I think Daniel Jones is being a little undervalued in

821
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 1: terms of the passing yardage that he'll put up this year,

822
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 1: and go check that out. I think he kind of

823
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:58,480
Speaker 1: sails over that mark. Um and what is over on

824
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:00,839
Speaker 1: the right, I'm just curious. I need to I need

825
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:05,840
Speaker 1: to look it up at the moment um and I will, no,

826
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:08,320
Speaker 1: I will. This is the kind of you know athletes

827
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:10,839
Speaker 1: ad just here, I will as I talk about some

828
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 1: of those other things that are there. Um, look, this

829
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:16,239
Speaker 1: year is going to be so much fun. I just

830
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 1: think people have I don't know if anyone's ever felt

831
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 1: as excited for season as I feel for this NFL season.

832
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 1: And if you go to PFF, not only will we

833
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:28,439
Speaker 1: get you covered with all the fantasy news and notes

834
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,319
Speaker 1: that you need every single day, the rankings of projections,

835
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 1: all that stuff, but all the new things that you

836
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 1: didn't know could be exciting about, you know, football, And

837
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:39,759
Speaker 1: I will bring up player props again from a week

838
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:42,879
Speaker 1: tweek basis, you know, getting into betting as as like

839
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:45,839
Speaker 1: it becomes more available unless of a slimy thing, because

840
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 1: it's really not anymore. Um, those are all opportunities to

841
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,279
Speaker 1: come to PFF and leverage the tools we have to

842
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 1: help you there. Daniel Jones, um over under here, this

843
00:43:57,280 --> 00:44:01,920
Speaker 1: is passing touchdowns and I want past yards. Um on

844
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 1: DraftKings dot Com is thirty eight hundred and a half yards.

845
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:10,239
Speaker 1: So in today's NFL that ain't a whole lot. Um.

846
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:11,880
Speaker 1: I think it was actually a little lower, maybe a

847
00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago. But um, I think we're undervaluing

848
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 1: what that offense is gonna look like. Some new receivers

849
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:20,760
Speaker 1: pretty good receiving corps Cyclon Barkley not a bad receiver himself.

850
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 1: Um So I'm taking the over on Daniel Jones there,

851
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:26,919
Speaker 1: and I encourage encourage everyone to do so. And there's

852
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 1: a bunch of other bunch of other player props that

853
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 1: I like to You can go to PFF dot com

854
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:33,440
Speaker 1: and check those out. Get an Edge subscription. You get

855
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:35,960
Speaker 1: all the premium content that you want and if you

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00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:38,399
Speaker 1: want to, you know, learn a little bit more, get

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00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 1: into the betting side of things, and Elite subscription will

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00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 1: give you the tools to do all of that stuff.

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00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:45,800
Speaker 1: And by the way, you you you selected the correct

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00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 1: gambling partner and Draft Kings, by the way, the official

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00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:50,239
Speaker 1: sports betting service of the New York Football Giants. Thank

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00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:52,759
Speaker 1: you for that. Thank god you, Otherwise I would edit

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00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 1: that one out George every once in a while. You know,

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00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 1: you get lucky George good stuff, then we really appreciate it.

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00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 1: Brought the talking to you. Thank you, John, George Chakrouy,

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00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:04,320
Speaker 1: thank you for joining us on the John Settle Podcast.

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Speaker 1: We'll see you next time. Everybody,