1
00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:13,440
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The crown

2
00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:17,560
Speaker 1: is yours, the conference title games are upon us. We

3
00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:20,280
Speaker 1: have all the info that you need to get set

4
00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,520
Speaker 1: for all of that and get some bets in pocket

5
00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:27,680
Speaker 1: today as well. I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by my Favorites crew,

6
00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:31,200
Speaker 1: the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky, the Queen of

7
00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:35,599
Speaker 1: the Pod, Miss Kendra Middleton. On today's episode, we've got

8
00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:39,160
Speaker 1: action or distraction coming up in moments, Stucky's random question

9
00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:42,120
Speaker 1: of the Week, two Kings and a Queen parlay courtesy

10
00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:45,720
Speaker 1: of Draft Kings. But let's head straight to the primer

11
00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:51,360
Speaker 1: for our shrimply unbelievable stat of the week. Two teams

12
00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:55,640
Speaker 1: off of overtime, the Broncos and the Rams off of

13
00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:59,640
Speaker 1: an overtime winning the divisional round last week. Since twenty fifteen,

14
00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,880
Speaker 1: teams off of ot facing a team that was not

15
00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:05,119
Speaker 1: or winning at a rate of just forty three point

16
00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:09,480
Speaker 1: nine percent forty six percent of those games against the spread,

17
00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:13,479
Speaker 1: so slight tick up ats. This season, those teams went

18
00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:17,080
Speaker 1: ten to eighteen straight up, eleven and seventeen against the spread,

19
00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:20,640
Speaker 1: but that counts in season games. For the regular season,

20
00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,440
Speaker 1: looking specifically at the playoffs, when the team is off

21
00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:26,920
Speaker 1: of an overtime win in the postseason and it's playing

22
00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:29,240
Speaker 1: obviously another playoff game in the next round. They are

23
00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:32,480
Speaker 1: zero to five straight up one in four ats since

24
00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:38,200
Speaker 1: twenty fifteen and losing by a healthy margin as well. Kendra,

25
00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:44,280
Speaker 1: how much do you factor in overtime impact into this

26
00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,880
Speaker 1: weekend's games as you look at the Broncos and the Rams.

27
00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:50,240
Speaker 2: I definitely think it matters because at this point in

28
00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:53,720
Speaker 2: the season, nobody, no team is perfectly healthy, no player

29
00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:56,240
Speaker 2: is perfectly healthy, and the more minutes and the more

30
00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:59,040
Speaker 2: time and the more snaps downs, everything that you have

31
00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:02,080
Speaker 2: on your body matters. We've seen kind of the exhausted

32
00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:06,960
Speaker 2: I pointed maybe towards the exhaustion towards the Eagles this year,

33
00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,600
Speaker 2: the Chiefs this year, just having so many more games

34
00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:12,440
Speaker 2: on your body. So I think that it's probably silly

35
00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:14,960
Speaker 2: to say that it doesn't matter. I mean, at this

36
00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:19,200
Speaker 2: point in the season, nobody's healthy. Every second of rest

37
00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:20,480
Speaker 2: you can get is important.

38
00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,600
Speaker 1: I would say that it matters more in fading the

39
00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:28,200
Speaker 1: Rams because this is their third straight road game, road game,

40
00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:30,200
Speaker 1: so you would think that they would be more impacted

41
00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:33,840
Speaker 1: by that, I happen to know after watching the Sunday

42
00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:37,600
Speaker 1: six Pack Stucky, that that does not factor in enough

43
00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,480
Speaker 1: to your analysis. And perhaps we'll get a beat on

44
00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:41,960
Speaker 1: this later on in the show. So if you want

45
00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:43,919
Speaker 1: to save some of this in your pocket, by all means,

46
00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:46,760
Speaker 1: do so, but not enough to scare you off the Rams.

47
00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:53,720
Speaker 3: No, especially at three. I mean, look, there's we've had teams.

48
00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:57,359
Speaker 3: I think it's a small factor, but like I mean

49
00:02:57,360 --> 00:02:59,640
Speaker 3: that the twenty twelve Ravens went on to win the

50
00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,119
Speaker 3: Super Bow. They played Wildcard Weekend, went on the road

51
00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:06,120
Speaker 3: one and overtime, and then against the Broncos in double

52
00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:08,960
Speaker 3: overtime in altitude. The next week they went up to

53
00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:11,560
Speaker 3: New England and destroyed Brady in the conference championship game

54
00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:14,760
Speaker 3: with Joe Flacco. Two thousand and three Panthers, who went

55
00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:19,080
Speaker 3: on to the Super Bowl. They were They played Wildcard Weekend,

56
00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:23,600
Speaker 3: won and overtime against the Rams, and then went to

57
00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:27,640
Speaker 3: Philly as an underdog and dominated the Eagles then and

58
00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:29,680
Speaker 3: then went on to the Super Bowl to play the Patriots.

59
00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:33,760
Speaker 3: So I think it is a factor. But you also

60
00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:37,560
Speaker 3: got to remember division like divisional home field advantage isn't

61
00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:41,480
Speaker 3: worth as much. There's familiarity there. The Toaday's generally been

62
00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:44,280
Speaker 3: good when it comes to travel, and teams are getting

63
00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:48,960
Speaker 3: smarter with just over time with traveling and taking care

64
00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:51,640
Speaker 3: of their bodies, and so I do think it's a

65
00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:56,640
Speaker 3: it's a small factor. But the Rams are getting healthier too.

66
00:03:56,680 --> 00:04:02,200
Speaker 3: And the Seahawks they have a potential issue at left tackle.

67
00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:04,600
Speaker 3: They lost one of their running backs. But I mean

68
00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:07,600
Speaker 3: getting Dotson backs huge for the Rams. They have Davante

69
00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:11,160
Speaker 3: Adams back this time around, Quinton Lake back on the

70
00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,200
Speaker 3: defensive side of the ball. I just had a three,

71
00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:16,880
Speaker 3: even in an expensive three, I'd have to play the Rams.

72
00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:20,440
Speaker 3: I mean we're going back, go back to Week sixteen,

73
00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:26,400
Speaker 3: and the Rams dominated Seattle, and I mean I was

74
00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:30,320
Speaker 3: on Seattle plus one at home. One of the reasons

75
00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:35,200
Speaker 3: is because Dotson was out, Adams was out, and Seattle

76
00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:37,200
Speaker 3: was basically healthy outside of their left tackle, which might

77
00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:39,880
Speaker 3: be the case again this week. But in that came

78
00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:42,880
Speaker 3: I was getting plus one. Lucky, lucky bet. I mean

79
00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:45,640
Speaker 3: it took a miraculous two point conversion to come back

80
00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:47,960
Speaker 3: from down sixteen that included a punt return for a touchdown.

81
00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:50,240
Speaker 3: Now special teams are concerned again now Seattle special teams

82
00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,600
Speaker 3: are elite. But the Rams, I mean the Seals were

83
00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:57,000
Speaker 3: plus one home dog in Week sixteen. Since then, yeah,

84
00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:01,560
Speaker 3: the Rams have been a bit more inconsistent, but we

85
00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:04,280
Speaker 3: had a full body of work after Week sixteen, including

86
00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:07,279
Speaker 3: a game at Seattle where I said Rams are clearly

87
00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:09,160
Speaker 3: the best team in the NFL. They put up close

88
00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:12,320
Speaker 3: to six hundred yards in Seattle on that defense that

89
00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:16,080
Speaker 3: was healthy without Adams and without Dots. And you know,

90
00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:19,360
Speaker 3: now we fast forward a month later and we're pushing

91
00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:25,000
Speaker 3: three on this line. I can't get there. I think

92
00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:28,640
Speaker 3: this is a little bit of recency bias weighing in

93
00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:31,800
Speaker 3: on both sides, with the Rams not covering him back

94
00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:34,680
Speaker 3: to back weeks looking a little shakier. And then the Seahawks,

95
00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:37,040
Speaker 3: I mean they the last three games since then, they

96
00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:39,480
Speaker 3: played the forty nine ers practice squad twice, and they

97
00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:41,160
Speaker 3: match up so well against the forty nine ers and

98
00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,159
Speaker 3: the Panthers, Like that's that's all. We've only gotten three

99
00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,520
Speaker 3: games against two opponents for Seattle.

100
00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:49,520
Speaker 2: Talked about the Patriot having it easy.

101
00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:51,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean against teams that they match up well.

102
00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,560
Speaker 3: And at the end of the day, I have I

103
00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:58,360
Speaker 3: have the better quarterback, the better offensive line, the better receivers,

104
00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:03,080
Speaker 3: the better running back room, and I'm going up against

105
00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:04,960
Speaker 3: a quarterback. We'll push this over the edge for me

106
00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:06,800
Speaker 3: of why I'm going to play the Rams that I want?

107
00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,920
Speaker 3: Like a three minus one twenty is sure better?

108
00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:13,760
Speaker 1: Is you? Like?

109
00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:15,400
Speaker 3: What I think this comes down to, is it's gonna

110
00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,760
Speaker 3: come out of the coaching like there's gonna be some

111
00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:19,880
Speaker 3: curve balls from McVay. I thought he had an awful

112
00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:23,640
Speaker 3: game last week. He generally has positive curve balls. But

113
00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,479
Speaker 3: like formation wise, personnel wise, you go back to the

114
00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:28,840
Speaker 3: first meeting, it was all it was sixty five percent

115
00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:31,280
Speaker 3: eleven personnel. The second meeting it was like sixty five

116
00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:34,200
Speaker 3: percent thirteen personnel. Well, they abandoned that last week. Thirteen

117
00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:37,520
Speaker 3: personnel doesn't work as well against Seattle's defense anyway. So

118
00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,080
Speaker 3: I'm curious to see what they do and what Seattle

119
00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:42,080
Speaker 3: does to counter what the Rams did in that second meeting.

120
00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:44,240
Speaker 3: They ran right at even wore A. They had no

121
00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:47,160
Speaker 3: answer for Puka. Do they bracket Pookah here? How do

122
00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:49,919
Speaker 3: they handle that? Like those little adjustments? This is like

123
00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:51,960
Speaker 3: a coaching porn game. When the Rams have the ball,

124
00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:56,600
Speaker 3: but the Rams can get pressure, and Darnold under pressure

125
00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:59,240
Speaker 3: we've seen a countless times against this Rams team three

126
00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:01,240
Speaker 3: times in the last two years, including in the playoffs

127
00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:04,040
Speaker 3: last year. He's gonna make mistakes and what puts this

128
00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:07,440
Speaker 3: over the top, which might kind of counteract some of

129
00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:10,440
Speaker 3: this scheduling advantage because it's definitely an advantage for Seattle.

130
00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:12,920
Speaker 3: At home they had a buy and then a laugher,

131
00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,040
Speaker 3: and then the Rams had to go to Carolina in

132
00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:18,800
Speaker 3: a war, to Chicago in a war in overtime, and

133
00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:22,040
Speaker 3: now to Seattle. It's definitely an advantage for Seattle. But

134
00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:26,320
Speaker 3: the oblique injury for Sam Darnold, I think it's like

135
00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:27,760
Speaker 3: last week, he didn't have to do anything. He threw

136
00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:29,200
Speaker 3: for one hundred and twenty yards.

137
00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:33,640
Speaker 1: But what about Stafford though, because that last week the

138
00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:36,680
Speaker 1: finger was a storyline going into that game against Chicago,

139
00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:37,880
Speaker 1: he didn't play great.

140
00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:40,480
Speaker 2: Se If we're talking about his back right now, well,

141
00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:41,239
Speaker 2: they've been talking.

142
00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:43,400
Speaker 1: About his back for years, I feel like so are

143
00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:49,600
Speaker 1: we sure? And perhaps the number that we're seeing is

144
00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,600
Speaker 1: is somewhat reflective of this that there's less confidence that

145
00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:54,720
Speaker 1: Matt Stafford is at one hundred percent right now.

146
00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:57,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, no one's really at one hundred percent,

147
00:07:57,840 --> 00:07:58,240
Speaker 3: but like.

148
00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,760
Speaker 1: A quarterly not being one hundred percent throwing.

149
00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:04,080
Speaker 3: But we know that Darnold is not one hundred percent.

150
00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,320
Speaker 3: I mean you could see it on his deep balls

151
00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,360
Speaker 3: last week. He's getting he's grimacing, he's not gonna be

152
00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:11,880
Speaker 3: able to scramble or his mobility's gonna be limited. He's

153
00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:14,040
Speaker 3: getting heat on the sidelines. And the thing is with

154
00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:16,160
Speaker 3: an oblique I think there's like a there's like a

155
00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:18,440
Speaker 3: ten to fifteen percent chance it like really flares up

156
00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,600
Speaker 3: and becomes problematic, and that occurs. The risk of that

157
00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:23,840
Speaker 3: goes up with each pass attemp and each time you

158
00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:27,000
Speaker 3: have to you know, tork your body and throw it downfield.

159
00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:29,000
Speaker 3: And last week it didn't not have to do much.

160
00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:32,960
Speaker 3: But if you know, I think this week he's not

161
00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,760
Speaker 3: going to have that same luxury where you know, Seattle's

162
00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:38,000
Speaker 3: up twenty eight to three for most of this game.

163
00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:42,440
Speaker 3: I don't think that's going to be the case. So yeah,

164
00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:45,080
Speaker 3: you could there's definite an argue with me that Stafford

165
00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:48,360
Speaker 3: might not be at one hundred percent, although the conditions

166
00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:49,760
Speaker 3: were just not ideal less.

167
00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:52,280
Speaker 1: Not ideal, but Stafford held without a touchdown for the

168
00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:55,040
Speaker 1: first time in nineteen starts this season, and that was

169
00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:57,640
Speaker 1: against Chicago. I know the weather wasn't great, it's the

170
00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:00,760
Speaker 1: Bears defense is awful, and he still had one of

171
00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:05,160
Speaker 1: his worst performances of the season. So think the story

172
00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:06,080
Speaker 1: needs to be told.

173
00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:11,200
Speaker 3: Donald hasn't I mean this, this Seattle offense has pretty

174
00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:14,720
Speaker 3: much been figured out. I mean you go back to

175
00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:18,280
Speaker 3: Devint talked about this earlier in the week. I mean

176
00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:22,760
Speaker 3: since the first nine weeks of the year, I mean

177
00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,080
Speaker 3: Donald was unbelievable, Like I think number one and EPA

178
00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:29,080
Speaker 3: per plays. I think it's like bottom five since week ten,

179
00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:33,520
Speaker 3: and teams have figured out they're just going lighter boxes. Now.

180
00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,160
Speaker 3: The Seattle run game has gotten better as a result,

181
00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:41,839
Speaker 3: but the explosive plays that pet disappeared. And like you also,

182
00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:45,240
Speaker 3: what's and Donald over the past since he's played the Rams,

183
00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:50,040
Speaker 3: he's played Carolina and San Francisco, the two worst teams

184
00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:53,800
Speaker 3: in the league in terms of pressure eight And that's

185
00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:56,439
Speaker 3: like that's the biggest handicap when it comes to Donald,

186
00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:59,280
Speaker 3: Like can you pressure him? And when you do, he

187
00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:03,320
Speaker 3: makes mistake. So I think there's a very high risk

188
00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:06,480
Speaker 3: that he makes which he's done all year against the Rams.

189
00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,680
Speaker 3: Backbreaking mistakes kill killer mistakes.

190
00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:12,320
Speaker 2: So he's about what almost ten turnovers against them alone.

191
00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:13,440
Speaker 2: I want to say, it's like seven.

192
00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:16,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, and like that pick was so I mean some

193
00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:20,320
Speaker 3: of the intercessions have been so bad. So yeah, I

194
00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:24,080
Speaker 3: just think at three this this line can't be three

195
00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:27,360
Speaker 3: in my opinion. So, uh, that's the side that I'm

196
00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:27,880
Speaker 3: looking at.

197
00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:32,480
Speaker 1: Well, I I did just look ahead at the show notes,

198
00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,640
Speaker 1: and I do think we're going that you did, Evan,

199
00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,240
Speaker 1: you might want to stretch for later in the show.

200
00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,439
Speaker 2: Guess who Guess who the problem child is? Once again?

201
00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:46,559
Speaker 1: Oh man, it's gonna be fun. We will get back

202
00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:48,720
Speaker 1: to that in a moment, but it's time to delve

203
00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:51,360
Speaker 1: into the weird, the bizarre, the random, and Stucky's question

204
00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:56,120
Speaker 1: of the Week. Hey, this is a dumb question. Let

205
00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:58,679
Speaker 1: me ask you a personal question kind of question.

206
00:10:58,800 --> 00:10:59,959
Speaker 2: Is that this question?

207
00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:09,640
Speaker 3: All right? If for the next five years you, in

208
00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,600
Speaker 3: order to have a cell phone, you could only have

209
00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:20,319
Speaker 3: three This does not include phone calls and texts so

210
00:11:20,559 --> 00:11:24,080
Speaker 3: on and like internet, So on your phone you're gonna

211
00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:27,559
Speaker 3: have on like your homepage, You're gonna have your your

212
00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:35,480
Speaker 3: phone icon, your uh text, your email, and your browser.

213
00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:38,439
Speaker 3: Those are given you're allowed to have them. You can

214
00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:43,520
Speaker 3: only have three apps on your phone, and you have

215
00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:45,760
Speaker 3: to choose them, and then that's it. You cannot you

216
00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:47,839
Speaker 3: can't swap them out. You only can have three apps

217
00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,720
Speaker 3: on your phone for the next five years.

218
00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:54,720
Speaker 1: Oh this is so easy, so easy. I'm glad you

219
00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:58,720
Speaker 1: gave us the freebies there. And those were you said, text, email,

220
00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,520
Speaker 1: browser calls. Those are the locks.

221
00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:03,480
Speaker 3: Those are the locks.

222
00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:05,679
Speaker 1: Those are the ones at the bottom of my screen.

223
00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:08,520
Speaker 1: So great call on that. I don't know if that's

224
00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:11,200
Speaker 1: if that's the same for everybody out there, but still, I.

225
00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:12,880
Speaker 3: Mean, you could change it, but that's that's how I

226
00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:13,600
Speaker 3: think gets to fall.

227
00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:16,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think that's the way to go.

228
00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:20,920
Speaker 3: Gammra is an app that you would have to choose.

229
00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:25,640
Speaker 1: Oh damn, that's now Okay. They got a little tougher,

230
00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:29,520
Speaker 1: So I was gonna go with my Notes app I

231
00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:38,120
Speaker 1: use every day. It's loaded reminders, show prep everything things

232
00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:42,320
Speaker 1: about my son that I notes from the past, moment

233
00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:44,800
Speaker 1: when he was born and that, like, all that stuff

234
00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:46,880
Speaker 1: lives on my notepad, so that's very important to me.

235
00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:54,560
Speaker 1: The maps app, yeah, I have completely just sort of

236
00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:57,840
Speaker 1: leaned into technology as the decades have gone by. I

237
00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,920
Speaker 1: could not find my way around the corner without my

238
00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:03,880
Speaker 1: Maps app. And then I was gonna say, I know

239
00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:07,760
Speaker 1: that this is hey company shill. The Action Network app

240
00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:11,120
Speaker 1: might be the app that I opened the most track

241
00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,040
Speaker 1: bets and all of that great stuff that you get

242
00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:16,960
Speaker 1: the great advice from people like both of you. So

243
00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:19,240
Speaker 1: those would be my three. But then I'd have to

244
00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,040
Speaker 1: eliminate my camera. I guess I would buy a camera. Yeah,

245
00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:27,200
Speaker 1: I'm gonna stick with those three action Notes and Maps.

246
00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,920
Speaker 3: Maps, No chance. I don't. I don't go enough places

247
00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:39,760
Speaker 3: like i'm I'm home, or I go to my wife's bar,

248
00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:44,040
Speaker 3: or like food shopping, or I go to the airport

249
00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:45,520
Speaker 3: down the street. I don't need to. I don't need

250
00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:50,920
Speaker 3: a map app, so that I'm not I'm not taking

251
00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,880
Speaker 3: I'm also definitely not using a notes app because now

252
00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:56,439
Speaker 3: I get that you use it a lot, but I

253
00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:59,640
Speaker 3: never used my notes app. But if you went into

254
00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:04,600
Speaker 3: my teen, I text myself all day throughout the.

255
00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,239
Speaker 2: Day, you text yourself.

256
00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:08,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's essentially the same thing.

257
00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:09,760
Speaker 3: It's just the same thing. It's just I have a

258
00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:12,440
Speaker 3: text just I text myself. So I just pull up

259
00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,280
Speaker 3: text and I'll say, like it could be like a tweet.

260
00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:17,760
Speaker 3: I'll tweet to myself. Well, actually I just bookmark tweets,

261
00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:21,360
Speaker 3: but it's usually just like a note or look into

262
00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:25,200
Speaker 3: this or this stat or something that I came across

263
00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:27,760
Speaker 3: one while watching a game that I want to dig into.

264
00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:33,280
Speaker 3: So I text myself all the time. So that's that's

265
00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,040
Speaker 3: how I handle the notes. Mine by far, I mean,

266
00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,080
Speaker 3: mine is very very easy, Like I don't even have

267
00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:42,440
Speaker 3: to think twice about it. It's the three that I

268
00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:46,920
Speaker 3: use most. I mean, my screen time is eighteen hours

269
00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:59,000
Speaker 3: every day and it's mostly action app Twitter, and I

270
00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:02,200
Speaker 3: would need a sport book app, so shout out DraftKings

271
00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,280
Speaker 3: sponsored the show, so I need a This is what

272
00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:09,840
Speaker 3: I'd spend all my time doing. Tweeting, blogging, bets, doing

273
00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:13,160
Speaker 3: stuff for the and then placing bets. So those are

274
00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:16,880
Speaker 3: my three. That's what I spend my entire time doing.

275
00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:20,680
Speaker 3: I would miss I do take I like to take

276
00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:30,560
Speaker 3: breaks from work and and scroll doom, scroll TikTok. Sometimes

277
00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:31,160
Speaker 3: we would miss that.

278
00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:34,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, that would be it would be tough to give

279
00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:38,520
Speaker 1: some of these. Not being able to watch a football game,

280
00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:40,800
Speaker 1: we go you.

281
00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:43,960
Speaker 3: Know, podcasts, I'd have to do it on my laptop.

282
00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:48,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's how I kind of came to My answer

283
00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:51,200
Speaker 2: was the things that I don't use on desktop very

284
00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:53,800
Speaker 2: often or can't use on desktop. So I use Twitter

285
00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:55,480
Speaker 2: on desktop all the time. I can use the Action

286
00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:58,120
Speaker 2: you know website on here. I can use DraftKings on

287
00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:00,560
Speaker 2: my computer. The things that I can not use on

288
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:05,440
Speaker 2: my computer obviously the camera maps, and then Instagram because

289
00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:07,960
Speaker 2: the Instagram like on the browser sucks and you can't

290
00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:10,280
Speaker 2: upload anything for their so for work, I would have,

291
00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:13,240
Speaker 2: like I make money on Instagram obviously, So it would

292
00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,240
Speaker 2: have to be those three because those are the things

293
00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:16,880
Speaker 2: on the like I can't use on a browser.

294
00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:19,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a good way to think about it.

295
00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:25,200
Speaker 1: I would miss banking on the app. Yeah, the website

296
00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:27,640
Speaker 1: that would suck. But that I mean, you just you know,

297
00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:29,400
Speaker 1: you got to you gotta make concessions here.

298
00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would actually miss. The one app I would

299
00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:37,760
Speaker 3: really miss is probably ESPN app for like streaming games

300
00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:42,280
Speaker 3: at any any out like I will always where if

301
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:45,080
Speaker 3: I'm out, or just as an extra screen, or even

302
00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:46,600
Speaker 3: to a home with all my screens off an extra

303
00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:48,880
Speaker 3: game screen streaming on my phone. I would really miss that.

304
00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:51,200
Speaker 3: That's why I'm looking at my most used apps that

305
00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:54,400
Speaker 3: for streaming I would miss, but uh yeah, that's what

306
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:56,280
Speaker 3: I would choose. Haven't you got our good answer for this?

307
00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:58,120
Speaker 4: Not really, because when you look at my apps and

308
00:16:58,160 --> 00:16:59,640
Speaker 4: you look at like what I use the most, I

309
00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:01,480
Speaker 4: don't think that's the answer because I think like the

310
00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,960
Speaker 4: banking stuff, and that is what I tend to like

311
00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:08,199
Speaker 4: not appreciate. Like, you know, my most used apps like

312
00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:10,040
Speaker 4: X slack action.

313
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:13,080
Speaker 3: The operators say X.

314
00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:17,680
Speaker 1: I don't know a quick aside. How do you find

315
00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,879
Speaker 1: what apps you use the most? Where's that information?

316
00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:23,880
Speaker 2: So if you go to your settings, you can see

317
00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:25,840
Speaker 2: like your usage screen time.

318
00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:29,000
Speaker 1: It's called are you talking amongst yourselves? We'll be looking

319
00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:29,440
Speaker 1: this up.

320
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:33,160
Speaker 2: I mean, I just can't believe Evan used Twitter's stripper name.

321
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:35,440
Speaker 2: That's kind of a vendor.

322
00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:37,560
Speaker 1: Well, good job by them.

323
00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:39,080
Speaker 3: That's some marketing wins.

324
00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:43,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I would have to use that. I don't know.

325
00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:46,600
Speaker 2: Buying a camera wouldn't work for me, because like what

326
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:48,520
Speaker 2: do you do when your dog's just doing something cute

327
00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:50,600
Speaker 2: or your kids doing something cute? You just go, like

328
00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:52,840
Speaker 2: grab your camera from wherever it is.

329
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:55,560
Speaker 4: No, you're right, camera and banking were two things I

330
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:57,679
Speaker 4: actually didn't think about. But I don't know how I

331
00:17:57,680 --> 00:17:59,760
Speaker 4: could leave those two things behind because I just don't.

332
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:01,520
Speaker 4: I don't want to walk into a bank.

333
00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:05,320
Speaker 1: Could you imagine a camera go on your you.

334
00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:06,960
Speaker 3: Can go on your laptop to your bank.

335
00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:08,679
Speaker 4: You could.

336
00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,840
Speaker 3: That's fair, That is fair. I don't think I've ever

337
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:17,040
Speaker 3: logged onto my bank or like Vanguard Accouncil on a laptop.

338
00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:19,120
Speaker 3: But I mean you thought you were going.

339
00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:19,960
Speaker 2: To say on your phone.

340
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:23,600
Speaker 3: I was like, what, Yeah, okay, that was my question.

341
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:28,720
Speaker 1: Anyways, fantastic for action or distraction. This is.

342
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:32,520
Speaker 3: I'm not I want it on the action.

343
00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:39,240
Speaker 1: For rams Seahawks. We have a prior matchup to go

344
00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:42,320
Speaker 1: off of, not the case for the AFC title game.

345
00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:44,160
Speaker 1: So what I did today is I took a little

346
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 1: dive into common opponents for the Patriots and the Broncos,

347
00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 1: and here is what I found. They both played the Raiders, Bills, Titans, Jets, Bengals, Giants,

348
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:59,240
Speaker 1: and Chargers. The Patriots went eight and two in those games.

349
00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:04,400
Speaker 1: The Broncos went nine and one. Patriots average margin plus

350
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:08,679
Speaker 1: ten point one, Bronco's average margin just six and a half.

351
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,919
Speaker 1: And that was with b nix Action or distraction. Kendra

352
00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:15,719
Speaker 1: as this being anything that resembles a factor of analysis

353
00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:15,960
Speaker 1: for you.

354
00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:18,240
Speaker 2: I think it's a good thing to look at, but

355
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,280
Speaker 2: it's not something that I personally looked at when I

356
00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 2: was getting to the window on one of my options

357
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 2: for our parlay later and to be honest, kind of

358
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:31,359
Speaker 2: something that I thought about, do we really, let's be

359
00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,360
Speaker 2: honest with ourselves here, do we really think that there

360
00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:38,800
Speaker 2: is that large of a drop off between Bonix and

361
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,040
Speaker 2: Jared's Didham Because I personally do not.

362
00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:45,560
Speaker 1: Well, the sports books would disagree, because the number has

363
00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:50,800
Speaker 1: swung wildly and it seems like there is a divide.

364
00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:54,320
Speaker 1: This is the time of year where public versus sharp

365
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,120
Speaker 1: money is more pronounced than any other time in the year,

366
00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:01,200
Speaker 1: this week, next week, and it seems to me reading

367
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:04,200
Speaker 1: the market like the public is all over New England

368
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,919
Speaker 1: and the sharpbetters out there are all over the Broncos

369
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 1: because this number has swung too wildly. So it depends

370
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,520
Speaker 1: on what side of the aisle you're on. But the

371
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:19,639
Speaker 1: sports books are obviously they're they are welcoming the Broncos.

372
00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 1: They are welcoming, welcoming sharp action on the Broncos as

373
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,359
Speaker 1: it stands right now. To me, I don't know I

374
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:29,679
Speaker 1: am pretty comfortable saying I have no idea. Jarrett Stidham

375
00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 1: hasn't played in two years, and I do think we're

376
00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 1: underrating maybe not the total body of work of bo Nicks,

377
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:43,120
Speaker 1: but specifically what he does in key situations. The Broncos

378
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:47,600
Speaker 1: have orchestrated a number of fourth quarter comebacks. They're one

379
00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,280
Speaker 1: of the most past happy teams in the NFL. In fact,

380
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,200
Speaker 1: bo Nicks had more pass attempts than any other quarterback

381
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 1: in the league this year and they were the one seed.

382
00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 1: There has to be a correlation there between his quality

383
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:03,119
Speaker 1: in comebacks late in games. You need quarterbacks to do

384
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,480
Speaker 1: that in overall pass attempts. You have to have trust

385
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 1: from your coach in order to obtain that, and so

386
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:14,120
Speaker 1: I think there. I do think we are perhaps overthinking

387
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:17,120
Speaker 1: this drop off of Knicks to stead of not being

388
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:20,160
Speaker 1: a big deal, when when in fact it is. That's that,

389
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:23,160
Speaker 1: But I'm not one hundred percent confident on that. That's

390
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 1: just sort of where my mind has led me on

391
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 1: this debate.

392
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 3: I mean, no one saying it's not a big deal,

393
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:32,679
Speaker 3: just like drop going from Nix isn't isn't an elite,

394
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 3: elite quarterback by any stretch. I mean, no one can

395
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,919
Speaker 3: make that argument. And like a drop off from an

396
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:43,880
Speaker 3: elite quarterback to just like an average backup would be

397
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:46,640
Speaker 3: you know, in some cases seven points.

398
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 1: But it's an average backup that hasn't played in two

399
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 1: years that is making his first start of the season

400
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,440
Speaker 1: in the most high pressure situation.

401
00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 2: So it's I think that helps them though, because I think.

402
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 3: We saw he It's we saw Philip Rivers not playing

403
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,119
Speaker 3: five years ago against the Seattle defense and he should

404
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 3: have beat them. Speaking of the Seahawks, they should have

405
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 3: won that game if not for a sixty yard field goal.

406
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:20,199
Speaker 3: And he had familiarity with the system. I mean, Sidham

407
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,439
Speaker 3: has been around for years under Peyton, so has familiarity

408
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 3: with the system. Here's the difference is that with Stidham.

409
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:32,160
Speaker 3: A lot of times you get these backups that come

410
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:37,400
Speaker 3: in and one they don't have any mobility whatsoever, which

411
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 3: kills them. Stidham is sneakily mobile, which always is helpful.

412
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 3: But most importantly in addition to his familiarity with the system,

413
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 3: is he has he's working behind one of the best

414
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:55,280
Speaker 3: offensive lines in the NFL. That's enormous, and with an

415
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 3: elite play caller like, this isn't your normal situation or

416
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:03,160
Speaker 3: a backup are back coming in and you know you're

417
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 3: You go back to what Stidham and look Stidham's numbers.

418
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:10,200
Speaker 3: He's only had four starts since twenty twenty two. If

419
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 3: you remove garbage time and you look at all the

420
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,440
Speaker 3: quarterbacks with a minimum of one hundred snaps since twenty

421
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 3: twenty two, there's eighty two of them. He ranks nineteenth

422
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 3: in success rate, that's basically Jalen Hurts thirty third, and

423
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 3: adjusted EPA per play that's basically Baker Mayfield forty first

424
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:32,680
Speaker 3: in EPA plus completion percentage of expectation that's basically Mitch Trubisky,

425
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 3: which I think is like a fair comp This isn't

426
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 3: like Max Brosmer or a bottom of the barrel back up.

427
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 2: He's a better back. He's one of the better backups

428
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 2: in the league.

429
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,360
Speaker 3: I agree. And those four games he's when he started

430
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 3: two were with the twenty twenty two Raiders, who I

431
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 3: mean threw three.

432
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 2: Hundred and sixty five yards in that game.

433
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, one against that really good forty nine Ers defense.

434
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 3: But he that Raiders offense was twenty fourth in DVOA,

435
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:02,120
Speaker 3: twenty fifth in press aratee allowed. The twenty twenty three

436
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:07,439
Speaker 3: Broncos were twenty seventh on offense Dvoa thirty first in

437
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 3: pressure rate allowed. So he was in awful situations with

438
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 3: bad offensive lines, which won't be the case here. And

439
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 3: there's this there's an uncertainty factor. It's one of the

440
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 3: reasons why I like the Broncos first quarter in this

441
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 3: game as well plus a half of point. There's some

442
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 3: uncertainty with what like what they're gonna do with sidem.

443
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,400
Speaker 3: I assume they're gonna get super creative here with packages,

444
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 3: personnel uses. Maybe you go heavier and they're gonna have

445
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 3: some Peyton's gonna have some curve balls here. And by

446
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 3: the way, Bo Nicks this year has been arguably the

447
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 3: worst quarterback in the NFL. In the first quarter, he's

448
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 3: thirty first in EPA plus completion centergy of expectation out

449
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 3: of thirty two quarterbacks, tied with basically tie with Flacco

450
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 3: for dead last twenty seventh adjusted EPAPRI play twenty ninth

451
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 3: and success rate thirty first in completion set jewel expectation.

452
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,360
Speaker 3: You mentioned all the stuff he's done late. That's where

453
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 3: a lot of Knicks's value has come, but early on

454
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 3: in games he's been really, really, really poor. So they

455
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 3: drop off can't be that significant to especially in the

456
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 3: first quarter, to one of the worst quarterbacks in the

457
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,199
Speaker 3: first quarter this year, to what Stidham is with all

458
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,639
Speaker 3: of the uncertainty, you also have your it's Denver in

459
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:25,200
Speaker 3: January at home, Like with a with an inexperienced quarterback,

460
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 3: you're gonna have that crowd noise, the outstude, the defense

461
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 3: is gonna come juiced. I think they can get pressure

462
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:33,639
Speaker 3: on May And by the way, you might say, well,

463
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 3: May he has been very He's his numbers are elite

464
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 3: in the first quarter, but if you.

465
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,120
Speaker 2: Break it back posts terrible postseason.

466
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 3: He's been the worst quarterback so far in the postseason

467
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 3: in the first quarter, even worse than Shroud. And if

468
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 3: you look at even from an average to above average

469
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 3: defenses he's faced this year. And it's stretching it because

470
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 3: the Patriots have played nobody I'm including like the Steelers, Falcon, Saints, Raiders,

471
00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 3: and the Ravens in this They were two and six

472
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 3: in the first quarter. They averaged only four and a

473
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 3: half points per game, They were shut out three times,

474
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:10,440
Speaker 3: scored more than a touchdown only once. So yeah, I

475
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 3: think that the Denver pressure can cause may issues. But additionally,

476
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,880
Speaker 3: you see this when like your star or your quarterback

477
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 3: is out that first game, everyone else kind of steps up.

478
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 3: You also have that uncertainty factor. You start, you have

479
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 3: these new looks that the other team isn't prepared for,

480
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 3: and then now all of the pressure shifts to New England,

481
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 3: all of it, right, Like you who can't pass up

482
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 3: this opportunity in the AFC you got to go through

483
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 3: Mahomes for every year for the last seven years. The

484
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 3: Patriots finally get the Natcy Championship game and they have

485
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 3: to go through Jared Stidham, like all of the pressures

486
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 3: on New England here. So yeah, I think this is

487
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 3: it's too much of an adjustment. I would set that

488
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if more Denver money comes. But

489
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 3: as you said, public money can have a say depending

490
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 3: on how much chart money is, on how much respected

491
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 3: on the other side, and there might there could be

492
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 3: conflicting opinions too on both which I could see. There's

493
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 3: a lot of uncertainty in this game. There is a

494
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 3: world where Stidham is a disaster.

495
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,400
Speaker 1: I fully admit that, but I don't think we're gonna

496
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 1: see that quote unquote sharp action come in on New

497
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 1: England until this number drops to it's at four and

498
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 1: a half in some places, if you might get some

499
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 1: or right, I.

500
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 3: Would put set to I think this line should be

501
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 3: like I would set if I was I would set

502
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:29,640
Speaker 3: it at three and a half. I'm at like three

503
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:30,120
Speaker 3: point three.

504
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,119
Speaker 1: So Evan, what do you think as far as the

505
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 1: way that this action tilts, where the where the bypoint

506
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 1: will be on New England.

507
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,920
Speaker 4: I'd be shocked to see it roll below four. I

508
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 4: feel like four is going to be like a bit

509
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 4: of a demarcation point would.

510
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 3: Be my guess.

511
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 4: I was kind of shocked for it to go to

512
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 4: five and a half and six. But again, I mean,

513
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:52,919
Speaker 4: right now, you've got like three quarters of the tickets

514
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,400
Speaker 4: and the money on New England. So at this rate

515
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,400
Speaker 4: you've seen the line come down, because I'm guessing you've

516
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,239
Speaker 4: seen some big bets on Denver. But at this right

517
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,639
Speaker 4: as you get I mean, you don't really see big money,

518
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 4: especially respected money, usually until we get closer to the weekend.

519
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:10,679
Speaker 4: So uh, I think it could close. I think it's

520
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 4: right around where it is.

521
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:18,360
Speaker 3: I think it's going to close for some Sharper.

522
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 1: Shops, Kendrick. Before I get to the next question, what

523
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 1: is the what's the conversation been in your area of

524
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 1: the country as far as the confidence level are New

525
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 1: England fans just assuming that this is around.

526
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 2: Well here the three people here, I think the Patriots

527
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 2: are absolutely going to beat the ship out of the Broncos.

528
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 2: And I think that that is insane, especially when you

529
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 2: take the history of New England playing in Denver in

530
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 2: the postseason into consideration. I just think people here are

531
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 2: way too cocky and are getting off on the fact

532
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 2: that they've had an easy schedule, and it's insane to

533
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 2: me how confident people here are. I don't think that

534
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 2: I've heard anybody at our station say that they think

535
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 2: the Broncos can even hang in this game this week?

536
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 1: What sounds about, right le insane? We get to two

537
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 1: more and then we've got a pickle prop to get

538
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 1: to and our two Kings and a Queen Paul Lay

539
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 1: The Seahawks have allowed just seven points in the second

540
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 1: half over their last three games, and in his last

541
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 1: three playoff games as a defensive coordinator and a head

542
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 1: coach like McDaniel, or like McDonalds, Mike McDonald's defense has

543
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 1: allowed to combine zero second half points. So action or

544
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 1: distraction on this handicap Rams first half money line parlayed

545
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 1: with the Seahawks full game money line plus four seventy

546
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 1: or if this is more your style, bet the Rams

547
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 1: first half and then live bet Seattle when we go

548
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 1: to the halftime break. Whichever is more your style, Stucky,

549
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 1: action or distraction on this creative way to play the

550
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 1: NFC Championship game.

551
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 3: I have no interest in doing that. I think this

552
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 3: is all gonna come down to the game plan. Also

553
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 3: the health of the quarterbacks, as we mentioned, but it's

554
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,719
Speaker 3: it's that chess match, and it's just it's very, very

555
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 3: difficult to predict unless you're in the room with McVeigh

556
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 3: and McDonald I. I do think that if the Rams,

557
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 3: if the Rams get up like, I don't think that's

558
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 3: I especially by margin, that's not ideal for Seattle. I

559
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 3: think they're toasts. Then I don't see Seattle. I know

560
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 3: they came back the first meeting, but again the Rams

561
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 3: were not fully healthy, and it took miracles, took a

562
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,760
Speaker 3: punt return touchdown, it took an incomplete two point conversion

563
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 3: that got scooped up, and then the Rams also missed

564
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 3: a field goal that would have won the game, and

565
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 3: then Seattle eventually wins on a two point conversion in

566
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 3: overtime because the Rams can and just tee off on

567
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 3: Donald and I don't, and with that oblique injury, I

568
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 3: don't think that would end well. I think Seattle's script

569
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 3: this year, SAMs that miraculous comeback is their defense and

570
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 3: special teams have come out and made plays early and

571
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 3: given them leads, and then their offense just can play

572
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:26,959
Speaker 3: complimentary football. You don't have to do too much. I mean,

573
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 3: look at all their wins, so many blowout wins this

574
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 3: year they've had because their defense and special teams have

575
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 3: made plays. That's who this team is. A lot of

576
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 3: people remember this Rams, this Seahawks team early in the year,

577
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:42,960
Speaker 3: when Donald was hitting JSN down the field every other play.

578
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 3: That's not who they are, and that's not who they've

579
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 3: been that team for a while. Yeah, the whole second

580
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 3: half of the season, so yeah, I mean it just

581
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 3: I mean, going back here Donald, weeks one through nine,

582
00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 3: he was third in EPA per play, first in yards

583
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 3: per attempt. Week ten, he's twenty seventh in EPAPRI play,

584
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 3: twelfth in yards per attempt, and that's because teams have

585
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 3: adjusted to their offense. It's one of the reasons the

586
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 3: run game now is a little bit more successful. They

587
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 3: were twenty seventh in EPAPRI play over the first nine weeks.

588
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 3: Since then they're eleventh because they're facing more light, more

589
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 3: lighter boxes. Teams are saying, Okay, run the ball. I

590
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 3: don't care, we're gonna, you know, take away the explosive play.

591
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 3: Early on in the season, they were just running it

592
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 3: into heavier boxes with heavier personality. Didn't care that it

593
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 3: was inefficient because then it was setting up the play

594
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 3: action game and then the deep shots. Well, defenses have

595
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 3: adjusted and said, we're gonna bracket JSN, we're gonna take

596
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 3: away or exposed to pass, go ahead and run the ball.

597
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 3: The Seahawks are fine doing that as long as especially

598
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 3: they're playing from ahead. Gets a little bit more problematic

599
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 3: if they're playing from behind. So yeah, actually, I don't

600
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 3: like that. I think this is going to come down

601
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 3: to just the game plans early on. And I mean

602
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 3: one thing that I will say for your for your

603
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 3: approach or for that suggestion, is maybe the fatigue sets

604
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 3: in late for the Rams after all of this travel

605
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 3: over the past month or two, and that's that advantage

606
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 3: for the Seahawks shows more in the second half. But

607
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 3: I'm going to say distraction.

608
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have a hard time personally figuring out how

609
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 1: the game script is going to go early on in

610
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 1: this one, but we're going to eliminate Rams first half

611
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 1: as an option here, Kendra. Many months ago, the mentalists

612
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 1: predicted a Rams Bronco Super Bowl using Stafford Adams, Kyron

613
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 1: Kobe Durant Oz Perlman, I think his name is predicted

614
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,480
Speaker 1: the exact outcome of the upcoming Super Bowl. His pick

615
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 1: was the Rams to beat the Broncos twenty three to fourteen.

616
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 1: So I mean you've asked your uber driver for some

617
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 1: picks that have paid off. So action or distraction on

618
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 1: the clairvoyance of one Oz Pearlman. Action.

619
00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 2: My favorite holiday is Groundhog Day. So the fact that

620
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 2: we have a clairvoyant rodent, I can't get away from clairvoyance. Now,

621
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,399
Speaker 2: it's the best holiday. I'm pro clairvoyance. I also would

622
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 2: love this for my bets, and this is exactly what

623
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 2: I think is going to happen. So action from me,

624
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 2: I love this. I think that this is perfect and

625
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 2: it's everything that I want. I think that it would

626
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 2: be hysterical to have eight Jared's Didham Super Bowl.

627
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 1: Well, this would be your longest payout if you were

628
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 1: to parlay the Broncos and the Rams to meet up

629
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:29,879
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl, and then you can just kick back,

630
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 1: kick your feet up, and let everybody else bet the

631
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 1: Super Bowl while you count your dollars still to come.

632
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,240
Speaker 1: Two Kings and a Queen get nominated on our weekly parlay.

633
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: But first, the word about Draft Kings from the first Lady.

634
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 5: The Favorites podcast is sponsored by DraftKings sports book and

635
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 5: in partnership with DraftKings, our listeners are getting a great

636
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 5: offer right now. New customers can bet five dollars and

637
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 5: get three hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your

638
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 5: bet wins. The next great touchdown is coming and you

639
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 5: can bet on it. If sports betting is not yet

640
00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 5: available in your steat, don't worry. You can still join

641
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 5: in all the fun with DraftKings Pick six and have

642
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 5: the shot to win cash prizes. To get started, use

643
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 5: promo code Favorites. When signing up with DraftKings again, use

644
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 5: code favorites when signing up and bet five bucks to

645
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 5: get three hundred back in bonus bets.

646
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 2: If your bet wins, the crown is yours.

647
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: It is the triumphant return of Kendra's pickle prop. Let's

648
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 1: pop that jar back open. What are we looking at? Okay,

649
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 1: we're in a pickle. Now, I'm really in a pickle.

650
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:29,319
Speaker 3: Now, all right, look we're gonna pickle again.

651
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 2: Hey, so I'm looking at some Stidham rushing props. We've

652
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:38,320
Speaker 2: kind of talked a little bit about how mobile he

653
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 2: actually is, and I get that the Patriots game plan

654
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 2: is going to be to stack the box, have Milton

655
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 2: Williams waiting there for the run. They're gonna make Jared

656
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 2: Ssidam beat him with his arm. But I don't think

657
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,279
Speaker 2: people are taking into account how mobile Jarrett actually is.

658
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 2: And I think that this number kind of shows that

659
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 2: I was on DraftKings earlier. Fifteen plus rushing yards from

660
00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:59,760
Speaker 2: him is minus one eleven or over twenty is plus

661
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 2: one one forty eight. I think over twenty that's kind

662
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 2: of a really really good price in my opinion. But

663
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 2: what do you guys think? I'm kind of sitting here

664
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 2: on which one to get on Does he run a lot?

665
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 1: I mean his stats in the past, which we have

666
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 1: a very limited sample of he's pretty mobile.

667
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:23,839
Speaker 3: No, he doesn't run a ton in the past. Yet

668
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:25,720
Speaker 3: he does have some ability, but he was playing behind

669
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 3: atrocious offensive line line with offenses that didn't use the

670
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:34,320
Speaker 3: quarterback to run, so I could see it.

671
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:39,239
Speaker 2: But a lot, Yeah, I was gonna say, they make

672
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 2: both right.

673
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:43,840
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna Peyton's got to get creative, and

674
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 3: they use Nick's legs a ton, so I think it

675
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 3: would make sense to, you know, have some of those

676
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 3: same plays and use Stidham's legs. And the Patriots the

677
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 3: one constant, the one thing that I do believe in

678
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 3: with the Patriots, like you could you could go. I mean,

679
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:04,800
Speaker 3: May is very very good, but you cannot deny that

680
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 3: he played no top ten defenses all year until the

681
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 3: past two weeks, and he has six fumbles and hasn't

682
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:16,399
Speaker 3: looked as effective. The offensive line is problematic, but their

683
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 3: run defense is legitimate when healthy, and now they're fully healthy.

684
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 3: You saw them slip a little bit the end of

685
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:26,320
Speaker 3: the year when you had Milton Williams in particular reserved

686
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:28,719
Speaker 3: Tonga and they had some injuries at the linebacker and

687
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 3: their run defense slipped a bit, but when they were healthy,

688
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:32,880
Speaker 3: you know, over the first twelve weeks of the season,

689
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 3: and then you know, since the very end of the

690
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 3: regular season they got fully healthy. That run defense is dominant.

691
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:41,839
Speaker 3: You can't really run on them so traditionally with your

692
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 3: running back. So that is one thing that I am

693
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 3: as someone who bet the bron because that is one

694
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:49,240
Speaker 3: thing that I am worried about. You have a backup quarterback,

695
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 3: a really good offensive line, but I don't know how

696
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 3: much Sitton is going to be able to rely on

697
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 3: a complimentary rushing attack, which is always a nice thing

698
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 3: to have. But because of that, one of the ways

699
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 3: that Peyton can counteract that is to get more creative

700
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 3: in the run game. So that could be you know,

701
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:13,800
Speaker 3: some jet sweeps, getting Memes involved and then using Stidham's

702
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 3: legs rolling him out. Maybe you know, some designed runs.

703
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 3: He's going to have to scramble a bit. So yeah,

704
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:22,799
Speaker 3: I don't mind that look at all.

705
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:26,920
Speaker 1: I kind of think it's all or nothing either Stidham

706
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 1: is going to be involved in the run game, and

707
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 1: you go with the bigger payout.

708
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:32,319
Speaker 3: Or yeah I like it twenty plus more.

709
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:37,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that Yeah, twenty plus or pass at

710
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,759
Speaker 1: plus one forty eight for Kendrim Middleton, You feel better

711
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 1: about that one.

712
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:44,479
Speaker 2: No, I feel good about it just because, like I said,

713
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:47,439
Speaker 2: like they do have bo run straight down the middle

714
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:50,760
Speaker 2: of the field often, and I could see them trying

715
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 2: to get Jarrett involved just because they're expecting them to

716
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 2: try to run the ball so much that they are

717
00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 2: going to have to get creative. And I think that

718
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 2: that's one of the ways that they can. And I

719
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 2: don't think that people consider how mobile Jarrett really can be.

720
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 2: And like Stucky said, he's played behind some really bad

721
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:08,840
Speaker 2: offensive lines. So when I was looking at props today,

722
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 2: it was just something that I thought really kind of

723
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:13,320
Speaker 2: jumped off the page at me.

724
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 1: Yeah.

725
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:17,439
Speaker 3: The one thing, the only thing, the thing that I'll

726
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 3: be worried about this is this is what makes the

727
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 3: playoffs so difficult to bet. I'm number one, Like, we

728
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 3: know who these teams are. In this case, it's there's

729
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:30,719
Speaker 3: a lot of uncertainy. It's not necessarily true, but this

730
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 3: is when teams throw complete change ups, right, So you

731
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,239
Speaker 3: got I spend I still spend all of my time

732
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 3: digging into the matchups schematically, but you're gonna have the

733
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 3: other teams know that too, right, So in these high

734
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 3: leverage games, that's when you want to switch things up.

735
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 3: So over the last four their four games, past four games,

736
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:50,359
Speaker 3: the Patriots have been blitzing at like a floor as level.

737
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 3: It's like forty three, forty four percent, forty two percent,

738
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:56,359
Speaker 3: I think, all like between forty and forty five percent

739
00:39:56,440 --> 00:40:00,720
Speaker 3: blitzing a ton. And you know they're going up against

740
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:04,879
Speaker 3: the Chargers offensive line, the Texans beat up offensive line

741
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 3: against you know, then they play the Dolphins and the

742
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:09,800
Speaker 3: Jets in the final two games.

743
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 1: So do they.

744
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 3: Do they continue to do that this week? If they do,

745
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:20,400
Speaker 3: I think it'll open up some opportunities for Stidham to

746
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:25,319
Speaker 3: break some and and this is just me, just general

747
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 3: thoughts in the game. Or do they say, you know,

748
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:30,399
Speaker 3: we're we're actually going up against one of the better

749
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:37,360
Speaker 3: offensive lines in the NFL, So let's dial back the

750
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:43,400
Speaker 3: blitz and just sit back and make Stidham, you know,

751
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:46,760
Speaker 3: throw into lots of zone coverage and read the defenses.

752
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 3: And they and the Patriots do do a excellent job

753
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 3: of changing up their looks on the back end, so

754
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 3: maybe you get more coverage and less blitzing, So I mean,

755
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:00,359
Speaker 3: they're gonna mix it up and just say and as

756
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 3: as maybe they don't blitz as much as they have been.

757
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:06,279
Speaker 3: So I'm curious to see how the Patriots approach this

758
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 3: from a game planning perspective. And additionally, you could see

759
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:14,840
Speaker 3: I could envision the one of the other reasons I

760
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:17,919
Speaker 3: like the Broncos first quarter as well. I could see

761
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 3: the Patriots coming out very conservatively on offense. I know

762
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:29,320
Speaker 3: that's not Drake May's nature, but and they've started slow

763
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 3: both playoff games, but in Denver on the road, the

764
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:40,319
Speaker 3: last thing you want to do here is especially when

765
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 3: you don't know what Stidham and this offense is going

766
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:43,720
Speaker 3: to look like, right like, there's a chance that Sidham

767
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 3: is just a disaster. The last thing you want to

768
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 3: do is, you know, Nick Benito and company force May

769
00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 3: into you know, the strip, sack them, go up seven

770
00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 3: to nothing, and the crowds on crazy. Stidham doesn't have

771
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:05,239
Speaker 3: to he can play from ahead. So the Patriots might

772
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,080
Speaker 3: be a little bit more conservative here early on in

773
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 3: the game, and because they're just there might just be

774
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 3: a chance that Stidham is a complete disaster. But that's

775
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:20,480
Speaker 3: that's gonna be the key. May has to feel pressure

776
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:25,880
Speaker 3: much better than he did against the Chargers and the Texans.

777
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 3: He has a forty five percent pressure to sack ratio.

778
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 3: It's his one week area. If you look at his

779
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 3: whole body of work, it's sack pressure leading the sacks.

780
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 3: He was twenty eighth in the NFL in that department

781
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:40,520
Speaker 3: at like twenty two percent. That's doubled in the playoffs. Now,

782
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 3: granted he's gone against the Chargers and Texans defense, but

783
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 3: he's getting another great defense on the road with a

784
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:47,840
Speaker 3: weak offensive line. They're gonna have to deal with the noise.

785
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:50,239
Speaker 3: So I'm curious to see number one, how much the

786
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 3: Patriots blitz and then how aggressive are they early on

787
00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 3: against this defense. So yeah, a lot of things though

788
00:42:57,160 --> 00:42:58,359
Speaker 3: to watch early that I'm watching.

789
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 2: It's so big of because I'm so in the thick

790
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 2: of it here, I feel like I over pay attention

791
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 2: to it. But to you guys outside of the New

792
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:09,920
Speaker 2: England market, how much of a liability do you think

793
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:11,280
Speaker 2: Will Campbell has been.

794
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 3: Huge? I mean, get up like a ten and a

795
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 3: half eleven percent pressure rate since he returned from injury.

796
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 3: His I've always had some questions about his ability as

797
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 3: a blind side tackle against the elite. Now, that doesn't

798
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:28,799
Speaker 3: mean he can't become very very good. It's still he's

799
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 3: a rookie. But yeah, the Texans were clearly to Will.

800
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:37,239
Speaker 1: On Will crime. Yeah, Will anderson ate them alive and

801
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:39,240
Speaker 1: on Will crime.

802
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 3: Oh wait, look like an All Pro going against them

803
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:46,480
Speaker 3: the week before. So yeah, I have a lot of

804
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 3: concerns of how he's going to hold up against the

805
00:43:50,880 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 3: Denver pass rushers. And this is a Denver teen, it's

806
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 3: you know, top five and pressure without blitzing. They are

807
00:43:57,120 --> 00:43:59,800
Speaker 3: going to bring blitzes. They are going to be aggressive.

808
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:02,560
Speaker 3: And there's no question the Pages have been lucky with

809
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 3: turnovers and love with fumbles, and the Broncos defense has

810
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 3: been unlucky up until last week all year when it

811
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:14,919
Speaker 3: comes to fumbles and turnovers. So maybe they are still

812
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 3: due for some bounces here. But that is a major

813
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 3: major concern here. Is Ken the offensive line hold up

814
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 3: Because one of the Drake May's gifts and his biggest

815
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:31,359
Speaker 3: strengths is his downfield passing. Throws a beautiful deep ball

816
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:35,040
Speaker 3: and he's going to get a lot of man coverage

817
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 3: this week, and Ken the offensive line give May enough

818
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:43,280
Speaker 3: time and can he feel that pressure and avoid losing

819
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 3: the ball? And a big part of that it's going

820
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 3: to be Will Campbell because you don't want to use

821
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 3: you also just don't want to use your tight ends

822
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 3: to be blocking the entire game, and because that's one

823
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:58,240
Speaker 3: of the ways you want to attack this Denver defense

824
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:00,040
Speaker 3: over the middle of the field with like Henry And

825
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 3: so we'll see it. And this is a that's a

826
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:07,359
Speaker 3: great matchup because Denver's defense number one and explosive pass

827
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:11,240
Speaker 3: rate allowed New England one of the best passing explosive

828
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 3: passing offenses in the league. And the difference might just

829
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 3: be how quick can Denver get pressure on me?

830
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 1: Can may handle the pressure? We feel pressure to hand

831
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,360
Speaker 1: out a winning parlay. Let's get to it.

832
00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 2: Two Kings in a Queen should feel pressure.

833
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 1: Crafits we all do. It's been a couple of weeks

834
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 1: for us.

835
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 2: It has been a couple of weeks as a collective.

836
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 1: Two Kings and a Queen presented by Draft Kings. Let's

837
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:45,399
Speaker 1: get to it. Kendrick kick us off with a couple

838
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 1: of nominations with the two games we have in front

839
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:47,799
Speaker 1: of us.

840
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:51,359
Speaker 2: So this is tough because stucky and I are very

841
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:54,640
Speaker 2: in lockstep here. I had the Rams money line plus

842
00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:57,280
Speaker 2: one thirty and then Denver to cover the four.

843
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 1: And a half.

844
00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 2: I don't know how we want to attack this because

845
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:04,279
Speaker 2: of the picks that you guys have, So I am

846
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:08,919
Speaker 2: open to interpretation. But me and stuff you're holding hands

847
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 2: this week, and then there's just gravits.

848
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 1: I you know, I'm going to nominate the Seahawks money line.

849
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:18,120
Speaker 1: I could even get behind. I mean, we kind of

850
00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:20,239
Speaker 1: need a win, so this would be dangerous. I could

851
00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 1: get behind of Rams spread and Seahawks money line within

852
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 1: the same parlay. I think the game is going to

853
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:28,359
Speaker 1: be really close, so there's a chance that we could

854
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 1: thread that needle. Obviously I can't. I'm not relax, guys.

855
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:35,919
Speaker 1: You can yell at me in a minute, okay. I'm

856
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:39,480
Speaker 1: not suggesting that. I'm saying I would have a conversation

857
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 1: about it. I know. Obviously I can't vote for the

858
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:45,360
Speaker 1: Rams money line, so if I have to be, I

859
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 1: have not bet the Patriots or the Broncos. I'm on

860
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 1: the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. I bet that

861
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 1: right when bow Nicks went down. There's a part of

862
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 1: me there, Yes, I'm right now I'm gonna feel this.

863
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 1: I'm very excited. I'm I'm gonna feel this out live.

864
00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:02,240
Speaker 1: But if we got to throw it in the parlay,

865
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:07,479
Speaker 1: that's fine. I begrudge. I begrudgingly vote the Broncos plus

866
00:47:07,600 --> 00:47:11,360
Speaker 1: the points. But I don't love that. I think I

867
00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:14,200
Speaker 1: think a lot of people are underrating bo Nicks oddly enough,

868
00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:16,880
Speaker 1: who I was eager to fade a week ago, and

869
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 1: now it seems like all the people I respect the

870
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:22,760
Speaker 1: most cannot wait to back Jared Stidham in this situation.

871
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:25,840
Speaker 1: And I just feel like you all are walking into it.

872
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 3: But anyway, Jar Stidham, if the line was three three

873
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 3: and a half, I wouldn't that's all. Uh, I'm gonna

874
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:39,520
Speaker 3: go Denver as well. So we'll start off with Denver

875
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:42,600
Speaker 3: plus the points. Anything better than four I think is good.

876
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:50,239
Speaker 3: I'll nominate. I'll change mine up. We'll go because we

877
00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:51,920
Speaker 3: already have Denver. I was gonna go. I was going

878
00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 3: to suggest Denver first quarter. I'll my first suggestion will

879
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 3: be rams By will buy it to three. Well, it's partlay,

880
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:06,759
Speaker 3: we can buy it to three and a half. And

881
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:09,840
Speaker 3: I already talked about that game. I just think this

882
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:11,200
Speaker 3: is more of a coint that it just comes down

883
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:15,359
Speaker 3: to the coaching adjustments. I've better quarterback, and I don't

884
00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:18,840
Speaker 3: like I think there's just an overreaction to what's happened

885
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 3: over the past three weeks. That's the name of the game.

886
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:24,840
Speaker 3: You look, Historically, teams off thirty five plus point wins,

887
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:28,719
Speaker 3: it's almost like an auto fad for me the next week.

888
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:31,440
Speaker 3: Teams are never as good as they appear, and historically,

889
00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:34,880
Speaker 3: if you do that just blindly, you've hit at over

890
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:37,840
Speaker 3: sixty two percent. We've only seen one team in the

891
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 3: playoffs over the past twenty years, by the way, win

892
00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:41,360
Speaker 3: by thirty five or more, and it was the Patriots

893
00:48:41,760 --> 00:48:45,279
Speaker 3: twenty twelve, I think, beat the Broncos by thirty five.

894
00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:49,360
Speaker 3: And then the next week at home against the Ravens,

895
00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 3: laying seven, should have lost, but Lee Evans dropped the

896
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:54,479
Speaker 3: pass and then Billy kind of missed a twenty seven

897
00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:54,960
Speaker 3: yard field.

898
00:48:55,160 --> 00:48:55,800
Speaker 2: Don't soundry.

899
00:48:57,480 --> 00:48:59,239
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say to you what you would say to

900
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:02,240
Speaker 1: me in this situation, Stucky, you should never do anything blindly.

901
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 1: You could do the exact same thing in the other direction,

902
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 1: betting on the Seattle Seahawks to win this football game,

903
00:49:08,600 --> 00:49:11,919
Speaker 1: and Evan lays it out wonderfully in the primer. This week,

904
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:16,440
Speaker 1: Rams off of an overtime game. Teams historically lose in

905
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 1: those situations. Rest disadvantage. Seattle playing on Saturday, the Rams

906
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 1: playing on Sunday. Teams in that spot won an eight

907
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:28,000
Speaker 1: straight up. The Rams are playing their third consecutive road game,

908
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 1: also a losing spot straight up historically. So if we're

909
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:36,960
Speaker 1: going blind trends, Settle and Seattle at home in the

910
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:40,400
Speaker 1: playoffs has been money over the last decade.

911
00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:43,280
Speaker 3: I mean, this isn't a blind trend. That's just basically

912
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:47,360
Speaker 3: how I handicap. That's my overarching bloss young handicap in

913
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:50,279
Speaker 3: the NFL buying low selling high teams are never as

914
00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:53,880
Speaker 3: good as they look, or the previous week never as

915
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 3: bad as they look, And that thirty five plus point

916
00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 3: status is a way to contextualize at that. It just

917
00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 3: goes back to me saying, I think we're overreacting to

918
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:07,759
Speaker 3: what we've seen over the past three weeks. Uh after

919
00:50:07,880 --> 00:50:10,400
Speaker 3: six after sixteen weeks when these teams played in Seattle,

920
00:50:10,440 --> 00:50:12,600
Speaker 3: everyone said Rams are clearly the best team in the NFL.

921
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:14,960
Speaker 3: They're going to win the super Bowl. And I think

922
00:50:15,000 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 3: we've gone too far since that's all.

923
00:50:18,520 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 1: I mean. I can't argue with you too much about this.

924
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:23,600
Speaker 1: I'm not betting Seattle minus the points. I am paying

925
00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:27,440
Speaker 1: up to take them on the money line because I mean,

926
00:50:27,480 --> 00:50:29,399
Speaker 1: these two games that we've seen with these two teams

927
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:32,880
Speaker 1: have shown us the margin is razor thin between these

928
00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:35,520
Speaker 1: two teams. I'm not trying to get hooked on a

929
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:38,399
Speaker 1: Seattle wins by two. I think Seattle is the better

930
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:42,680
Speaker 1: football team. I think their home field advantage is significant,

931
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 1: and the Rams being on the road three weeks in

932
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:48,839
Speaker 1: a row. I question Stafford's health. I feel like people

933
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:53,839
Speaker 1: have just neglected that, and in the Rams defense has

934
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 1: not looked as good as it did in the middle

935
00:50:55,640 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 1: of the season. So I think Seattle, I just don't want.

936
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 3: To defense looked very very good last week, I have

937
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:05,239
Speaker 3: to say. I mean, their their run defense was very good.

938
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:09,120
Speaker 3: I was impressed by their run day. I think the

939
00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:11,960
Speaker 3: Rams are still the better overall team, but I do

940
00:51:12,080 --> 00:51:15,640
Speaker 3: make the Seahawks a small, slight favor. You have to

941
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:20,040
Speaker 3: take into account the situation, home field, etcetera, etcetera. But

942
00:51:20,239 --> 00:51:21,760
Speaker 3: super close. I mean they were separated in the regular

943
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:25,799
Speaker 3: season by one yard at one point, but I'll say

944
00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 3: so Rams will buy it to three and a half,

945
00:51:29,520 --> 00:51:33,240
Speaker 3: and then my other one will be we'll go Kaishan

946
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:38,319
Speaker 3: Boudi under two and a half receptions. I know he's

947
00:51:38,400 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 3: cleared this in both playoff games, but his biggest games

948
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:47,759
Speaker 3: all season have come against zone heavy defenses. I think

949
00:51:47,760 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 3: he's going to get a huge dose of certain here

950
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:55,440
Speaker 3: man heavy Broncos defense the way, and when they Patriots

951
00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:59,880
Speaker 3: play man May targets Henry and digs in the slot,

952
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:02,759
Speaker 3: I think that's where they're going to target here. The

953
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:05,719
Speaker 3: pressure from Denver I think can get to May. And

954
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 3: there's also just a chance that the Patriots blow out

955
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:14,880
Speaker 3: the Broncos, or that this is very low scoring and

956
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,680
Speaker 3: it's like becomes a field position battle and there's just

957
00:52:17,840 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 3: not as many opportunities for Booty. So yeah, I'm gonna

958
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:24,880
Speaker 3: go He's not a target share monster. He's more like

959
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:27,560
Speaker 3: we'll take a couple of deep shots to him and

960
00:52:27,680 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 3: he might get the best corner in the NFL. So

961
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:34,840
Speaker 3: under two and a half at plus money, I like.

962
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:38,400
Speaker 3: I think during the regular season, he.

963
00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:42,919
Speaker 1: Let me see he one catch for fifty yards sounds

964
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:44,239
Speaker 1: like his stat line in this game.

965
00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll say two for fifty eight is what he

966
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:52,560
Speaker 3: finishes at. But if you're curious, during the regular season,

967
00:52:53,719 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 3: he went under two and a half and nine of

968
00:52:57,200 --> 00:53:00,880
Speaker 3: fourteen games. And remember they had one of the easiest

969
00:53:00,920 --> 00:53:06,399
Speaker 3: schedules in NFL history of opposing defenses. So and you're

970
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:09,240
Speaker 3: gonna see a lot of man here. I think Pat's

971
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 3: gonna be heavy digs, tight end game and uh the

972
00:53:13,680 --> 00:53:16,440
Speaker 3: Broncos are number one and explosive fast right allowed and

973
00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:19,120
Speaker 3: that's where Booty does most of his damage. So those

974
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:21,239
Speaker 3: are my two. Well by the by the Rams to

975
00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:25,120
Speaker 3: three and a half or Booty under two and a

976
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:25,920
Speaker 3: half receptions.

977
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:34,319
Speaker 1: Mm I am I'm gonna lean into that, Booty. GI

978
00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:35,520
Speaker 1: me kayseean Booty.

979
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:36,520
Speaker 2: I'm taking the rams.

980
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:38,400
Speaker 1: So Evan, it's your time to shine.

981
00:53:40,040 --> 00:53:40,200
Speaker 2: Uh.

982
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:41,920
Speaker 3: I guess I'd go with the Rams.

983
00:53:42,040 --> 00:53:44,480
Speaker 4: I'd be kind of scared on like a two to

984
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:46,480
Speaker 4: three cap kind of what you saw last game, Like

985
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 4: he doesn't look at Booty at all, and then one

986
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:50,480
Speaker 4: drive he hits him two or three times. It just

987
00:53:50,560 --> 00:53:54,279
Speaker 4: becomes unlucky. I think three is probably his ceiling, which

988
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:56,800
Speaker 4: makes it a good bet, But I don't know. I'm

989
00:53:56,840 --> 00:53:58,680
Speaker 4: a little jaded based off what we just saw.

990
00:53:59,800 --> 00:54:03,399
Speaker 1: All right, Rams, three and a half? Are we buying

991
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:07,640
Speaker 1: the Broncos? Up to five? By the way, now collective here, Okay.

992
00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:10,520
Speaker 4: You're above four, you're fine, four and a half.

993
00:54:10,760 --> 00:54:13,280
Speaker 1: Two for the Broncos, three and a half for the Rams.

994
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:16,320
Speaker 1: I have the Seattle money line. Nobody's voting for that,

995
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:17,920
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna bother.

996
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:19,120
Speaker 3: Pees and.

997
00:54:20,719 --> 00:54:24,400
Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker over eighty five and a half yards rushing.

998
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:26,680
Speaker 1: His average on the season is twenty yards short of this,

999
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:29,399
Speaker 1: but obviously this number is what it is because he's

1000
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:31,720
Speaker 1: the lone wolf now in the backfield, and I highly

1001
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:34,800
Speaker 1: doubt they're about to turn to VLAs Jones in the

1002
00:54:34,920 --> 00:54:36,960
Speaker 1: Charbonnay role. It's just gonna be give the ball to

1003
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker twenty five times. I know you said, hey,

1004
00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:44,239
Speaker 1: the Rams defense looked good last week, right, but since

1005
00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 1: Week fourteen they have a lot one hundred and thirty

1006
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 1: yards per game on the ground. All of that workload

1007
00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:52,960
Speaker 1: is gonna land on Kenneth Walker's shoulders. We have an

1008
00:54:53,000 --> 00:54:57,400
Speaker 1: injured quarterback in Sam Darnold. They have to feed Kenneth

1009
00:54:57,440 --> 00:55:00,040
Speaker 1: Walker in this game. I think Seattle's gonna win, and

1010
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:02,840
Speaker 1: to me, one of their only chances at victory is

1011
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:04,840
Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker having a big game on the ground and

1012
00:55:04,880 --> 00:55:07,480
Speaker 1: then leaning on him in order to get the dubs.

1013
00:55:07,520 --> 00:55:09,960
Speaker 1: So eighty five and a half yards. So, by the way,

1014
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:12,920
Speaker 1: he has already cleared this against the Rams in a victory,

1015
00:55:13,080 --> 00:55:15,000
Speaker 1: so we have seen what that looks like.

1016
00:55:15,960 --> 00:55:18,760
Speaker 3: Olani's back though, so that I think he'll be the backup.

1017
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:24,000
Speaker 3: So but yeah, I mean that one of the reasons,

1018
00:55:24,560 --> 00:55:26,440
Speaker 3: and I think the Rams will take the same approach

1019
00:55:27,440 --> 00:55:29,880
Speaker 3: that the Seahawks offense has become way less explosive, the

1020
00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:33,759
Speaker 3: teams are using lighter boxes, Donold has become a shell

1021
00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 3: of what he was early in the season, and the

1022
00:55:35,239 --> 00:55:40,320
Speaker 3: run game has become significantly more successful as I mentioned.

1023
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:42,439
Speaker 3: So they were twenty seven of the EPA per play

1024
00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:45,719
Speaker 3: running the ball over the first ten weeks. Since then

1025
00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:51,920
Speaker 3: they're eleventh. So yeah, by far, I would roll with Walker,

1026
00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 3: who should get heavy workload here, and I do think

1027
00:55:56,239 --> 00:55:58,880
Speaker 3: that that's they want to play a complimentary game here,

1028
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:03,920
Speaker 3: limit Arnold's attempts as much as they can, and the

1029
00:56:04,040 --> 00:56:06,759
Speaker 3: Rams are gonna want to take away those explosives. So

1030
00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:08,520
Speaker 3: I do think Walker will have a good day. So

1031
00:56:08,640 --> 00:56:10,720
Speaker 3: that of the two I'm definitely going Walker.

1032
00:56:11,840 --> 00:56:14,000
Speaker 2: I have to you because I'm on the Rams money line, so.

1033
00:56:15,440 --> 00:56:17,279
Speaker 1: Well, don't sound too excited about it.

1034
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:21,440
Speaker 3: All right, there you go, we have we have six

1035
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:22,920
Speaker 3: to one at DraftKings.

1036
00:56:24,160 --> 00:56:26,279
Speaker 1: There you go, Yes, plus five ninety three over at

1037
00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:30,080
Speaker 1: Draft Kings where the Crown is yours, Broncos plus four

1038
00:56:30,080 --> 00:56:32,320
Speaker 1: and a half Rams, plus three and a half Kenneth

1039
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:37,080
Speaker 1: Walker over eighty five and a half yards rushing. That's

1040
00:56:37,120 --> 00:56:39,279
Speaker 1: gonna do it for today's episode special thanks to our

1041
00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:43,400
Speaker 1: producers Gifford Gold and David Payne, statsound Evan Abrams. The

1042
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:47,879
Speaker 1: Favorites will return on Sunday night, right after the Late Game,

1043
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:50,160
Speaker 1: and we'll break it all down right here on the

1044
00:56:50,200 --> 00:56:52,560
Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. Thanks for hanging out. To see

1045
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:54,920
Speaker 1: you next time here on the Favorites Podcast, presented by

1046
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:57,360
Speaker 1: Draft Kings. The Crown yours.

1047
00:57:06,840 --> 00:57:11,320
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1048
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:14,160
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1049
00:57:14,200 --> 00:57:17,280
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler