1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew and myself, Kayley Lines, have returned to Washington 7 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 2: along with the majority of Congress after of course, the 8 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:35,160 Speaker 2: Memorial Day recess. The Senate is flying in this afternoon, 9 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 2: this evening and are pretty quickly going to get to work, 10 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 2: at least behind closed doors, on figuring out what changes 11 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:44,159 Speaker 2: they want to make to the House past big one, 12 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 2: big beautiful bill. Can't forget the one. Of course, it 13 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:49,320 Speaker 2: passed in the House two fifteen to two fourteen. It 14 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 2: was very narrow, and the Speaker of the House has 15 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 2: warned the Senate, don't make too many changes if you 16 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 2: want me to be able to pass this thing. 17 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 3: A second, we're still calling it OBA. That was a 18 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 3: thing for OBBA. Does that make it easy? I feel 19 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 3: like we worked off the O, but we're not doing 20 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:05,399 Speaker 3: that anymore. I haven't been remember to build back better BBB. 21 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:08,399 Speaker 3: That's dangerous. Ground. Yes, the President did talk about this 22 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 3: at the big rally, the one big rally on Friday 23 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:12,800 Speaker 3: night outside of Pittsburgh. This is something that's very top 24 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 3: of mind for him. Right Let's listen. 25 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 4: Right now, with the verge of passing the largest working 26 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 4: class tax cuts in American history, we got to get 27 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 4: that beautiful, big bill, beautiful, beautiful as it is, we 28 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 4: got to get it passed the Senate. Call you, senators 29 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:34,039 Speaker 4: and I'll tell you have you have great people representing you, 30 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 4: with your senators, your congressman. You have great people. Every 31 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 4: single Democrat House member voted to impose the largest tax 32 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 4: hike in history. The Democrats are voting for the largest 33 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 4: highest tax hike in history. I've never heard of it before. 34 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 3: Now, as this bill goes to the Senate, the big question, 35 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 3: of course, that we've been asking here on this program 36 00:01:56,880 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 3: and everyone's asking inside the nation's capital, is kind of 37 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 3: change will the Upper Chamber make and will that make 38 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 3: this more difficult to pass when it comes back in 39 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 3: the House. We actually have an opportunity to speak to 40 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 3: Republican leadership in the House to talk about that very question. 41 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 5: Right now. 42 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 3: Congressoman Lisa McLean is with us of Michigan's ninth District, 43 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:21,400 Speaker 3: Chair of the House Republican Conference in studio, no less. 44 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 6: Thanks for coming to see us, Thanks for having me. 45 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:25,359 Speaker 3: Are you getting the jitters? Now that Senators are flying 46 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 3: back into town? What are they going to do to. 47 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 7: This thing's getting real? My hope is that they don't 48 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 7: do a lot right. We passed it very narrowly in 49 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:36,640 Speaker 7: the House. We don't have a big margin. Obviously that's 50 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 7: no secret. So my hope is that they make very 51 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 7: very few changes, they send the bill back, and we 52 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 7: do get it passed by July fourth. The President Trump 53 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 7: has been very clear that that is his deadline, and 54 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 7: I'll tell you I wouldn't want to be the one 55 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 7: that stands in front in front of President Trump's deadline. 56 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 2: Well, we know he's not afraid to get people on 57 00:02:56,760 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 2: the phone, even call them out publicly if necessary. But obviously, 58 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 2: your job is Republican Conference chair, is to talk to 59 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,639 Speaker 2: the membership, get an understand of understanding of what their 60 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 2: deal breakers are. Knowing they were not shy about expressing 61 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 2: that during the process in the House. What is the 62 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 2: most potential deadly change the Senate can make to this bill? 63 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 7: I hope they don't do many changes to reduce the 64 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 7: amount of savings, right. I think we've hit the sweet spot. 65 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 7: I don't believe they'll make many changes to Medicaid because again, 66 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 7: that was a very delicate balance and salt is obviously 67 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 7: very important. So I don't see a lot of changes 68 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 7: that they really can make. I know some of the 69 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 7: talk has been out there on you know, making sure 70 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 7: that we have coverage in the rural hospitals and whatnot, 71 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 7: which will make sure that we do. The bill is 72 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 7: pretty well crafted. And remember we'd been working on this 73 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 7: bill for almost nine months, so we've had our family fights, 74 00:03:57,520 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 7: so to speak, to get to the place that we're. 75 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 8: At right now. 76 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 3: What if it's in fact more cutting that comes from 77 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 3: the Senate, what do you tell Mike Crapo says, let's 78 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 3: make the Trump tax cuts permanent, make the cuts even deeper. 79 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 3: Would it pass the House when it came back. 80 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 7: I think it would. I think it would, provided it 81 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 7: just doesn't go too far for a lot of our members. 82 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:22,599 Speaker 7: Look at Speaker Johnson has a very small eye of 83 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 7: the needle that he needed to thread, and I think 84 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 7: he threaded that perfectly right. Some members like me that 85 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:30,359 Speaker 7: are in a Ruby red districts. Wish we would have 86 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,159 Speaker 7: been able to cut more, but I understand why we didn't, 87 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 7: and that's this balance. What I will remind everybody is 88 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 7: we need you know, everyone's talking about certainty, certainty, certainty. 89 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:43,599 Speaker 7: That's why it's so critical that the Senate passed this 90 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,920 Speaker 7: is it will give Americans the certainty that they've been 91 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 7: asking for, and I'm confident they will. 92 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 2: Well, what do we consider what Americans will actually see 93 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 2: if and when this becomes law in terms of the 94 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 2: changes in their pocketbook. A lot of this is just 95 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:00,080 Speaker 2: an extension of the tax rates they've currently been pay 96 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 2: That's the point the President was making. It's avoiding a 97 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 2: tax hike, not necessarily giving everyone a tax cut. Though, 98 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 2: how do you message that successfully as you look ahead 99 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:09,360 Speaker 2: to twenty twenty six. 100 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 7: Exactly what you said is we want to avoid the 101 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 7: largest tax increase then a lot of Americans will see 102 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 7: in their entire lifetime. Look at in Michigan, if we 103 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 7: do not pass this bill, over seven hundred thousand small 104 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 7: businesses in just Michigan will see their tax rate increase 105 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 7: to forty three percent. That is not good for the economy. 106 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:37,839 Speaker 7: That is not good for michiganers. So we have to 107 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 7: make sure that we extend these tax cuts. And I 108 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 7: will remind you every single Democrat voted to raise the 109 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 7: American people's taxes. We're not for that. 110 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:48,840 Speaker 3: There's a question about the debt ceiling here, of course, 111 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:52,120 Speaker 3: that's folded into this bill. Scott Bessett. Yesterday the Treasury 112 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 3: Secretary would not be specific about the X state, suggesting 113 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:59,359 Speaker 3: that that might increase the urgency and the timeline and 114 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 3: getting this done. Is that a good strategy? Does that 115 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:02,600 Speaker 3: actually motivate lawmakers? 116 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 7: Well, I can share with you. I believe it does 117 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 7: motivate lawmakers. 118 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 3: Let's put it on I'd say it's the fourth of August, 119 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 3: Congress women. We need to get it done by them. 120 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:13,039 Speaker 7: I think we don't have the exact date, or no 121 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 7: one can provide the exact date right now, but I 122 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 7: do know that it's sometime in the near future. So 123 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 7: let's put it in the one big, beautiful bill and 124 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:25,280 Speaker 7: let's just deal with everything so we can get onto 125 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 7: the real business of Congress, which is the appropriations. Right, 126 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:31,159 Speaker 7: we have to begin to pass our appropriations package. 127 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 2: Well, the Senate may ultimately if it wants to make 128 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 2: a number of these cuts permanent or extend the duration 129 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 2: before we have another X date crisis on our hands. 130 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,479 Speaker 2: Actually lift the amount of the debt sealing hike in 131 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:44,840 Speaker 2: the package to five trillion from four trillion. Would that 132 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 2: be problematic or do you think that can be? 133 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 7: You know, I think that will be a little bit 134 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 7: of problematic. Any tweak or adjustment that is made in 135 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 7: the Senate is not going to be an easy lift 136 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 7: for us because we spent all of the time already 137 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 7: having the internal fights and arguments, and you know, different 138 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:06,279 Speaker 7: people representing their districts, so we really can't have a 139 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 7: lot of changes. It is not going to be positive 140 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 7: for the American people if we do that, it just 141 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 7: makes everybody's job way more difficult. 142 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 3: There's been a lot of talk about Joni Ernstown hall experience, 143 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 3: which we're going to get into, and a little bit here. 144 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 3: I'm just wondering what you heard from your members who 145 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 3: went home, marched in parades, I guess in some cases 146 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 3: held town hall meetings. What was the point of concern 147 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 3: that they were hearing from voters. 148 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 7: Yeah, well, I actually did a Memorial Day parade and 149 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 7: a more event and several other events, talked to business owners, 150 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 7: had a round table with my elected officials, et cetera, 151 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:40,560 Speaker 7: et cetera, And what I heard in my district in 152 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 7: Michigan is a sense of optimism and hope because the 153 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 7: people in my state look at the tariffs and the 154 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 7: economy a little bit differently. And I say that because 155 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 7: Michigan ranks number three behind California in New York in 156 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 7: the amount of manufacturing jobs lost, So that is a 157 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 7: horror thing. What they see President Trump doing is bringing jobs, 158 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:09,560 Speaker 7: especially manufacturing jobs, back to their state of Michigan. So 159 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 7: they are extremely excited and very optimistic with what's going 160 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 7: on in the economy right now. 161 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 2: But are you not hearing from some of those manufacturers 162 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 2: that say, lifting steel and aluminum teriffs from twenty five 163 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 2: percent to fifty percent and therefore elevating input costs is 164 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 2: an issue. 165 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 7: Yeah. To be fair, yes they are, but they're giving 166 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 7: the president some grace. They understand that tariffs are just 167 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 7: a tool in the toolbox to level the playing field, 168 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 7: so to speak. So what I'm hearing is, eh, there 169 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 7: is a little bit of all concern, but they do 170 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 7: trust his decision making on economics and economic policy because 171 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:50,600 Speaker 7: he's done it before and in his first term. It 172 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 7: went really well for a lot of the businesses in 173 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:55,199 Speaker 7: my community, and they're hopeful that we're going to get 174 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:56,679 Speaker 7: this economy back on track. 175 00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 3: Well with that trepidation is they're also a conversation of 176 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 3: about pulling up the moving trucks and starting to move 177 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:06,679 Speaker 3: manufacturing supply chains. Do they say, Congresswoman, give us give 178 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 3: us six to nine months because we're bringing it back 179 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:10,200 Speaker 3: to Michigan. Is that how this ends? 180 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,679 Speaker 7: Yes, they are asking, just like they're giving the President 181 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:15,839 Speaker 7: said grace. They're asking for a little bit of grace. 182 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:19,080 Speaker 7: If they're showing progress moving facilities. 183 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 8: Back, will we see that? 184 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:22,560 Speaker 7: You know, I'm confident. I don't want to get ahead 185 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 7: of the president. But what I can tell you about 186 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:27,599 Speaker 7: President Trump is he's been very receptive to the American 187 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 7: worker in listening right, there are unintended consequences when we 188 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:36,960 Speaker 7: do policy changes. He's very in tune with the American 189 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 7: worker and he wants to listen to what they're dealing 190 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 7: with in the American manufacturer and he will make changes 191 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 7: based upon that. 192 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 2: All right, Chairwoman, great to have you, thanks with us 193 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 2: in our Washington, d C. Studio. The Chairwoman of the 194 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:53,959 Speaker 2: House Republican Conference representing Michigan's ninth district, Lisa McClean with us. 195 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 196 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:02,080 Speaker 1: us Lie I have weekdays at noon and five pm. 197 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:04,760 Speaker 1: E's durn on Apple Cockley and Android Otto with the 198 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 1: Blooburg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon 199 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 1: Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa 200 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 1: played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 201 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 2: We're in Washington, where we just wrapped up a conversation 202 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 2: with the chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, Lisa mcclan 203 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:24,680 Speaker 2: and Joe made mentioned in our conversation with her about 204 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:27,600 Speaker 2: the experience of Iowa Senator Joni Earns, the Republican who 205 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 2: held a town hall over the Memorial Day recess and 206 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:34,200 Speaker 2: was actually pressed by a constituent and people who were 207 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:37,560 Speaker 2: in attendance about the cuts to Medicaid and SNAP that 208 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 2: could potentially come if the one big beautiful bill indeeds 209 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:45,200 Speaker 2: become lost, suggesting that people will die. This was the 210 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 2: senator's response. 211 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:56,599 Speaker 9: People are not, well, we all are going to die, 212 00:10:53,040 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 9: said spokes Okay, no, but but well, what you. 213 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 3: Don't want to do is listen to me. 214 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 5: When I say that we are going to focus on 215 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:09,479 Speaker 5: those that are most vulnerable, those that made the eligibility 216 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 5: requirements for meta paid we will protect. 217 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 3: Yes, you heard her say, well, we are all going 218 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 3: to die. Fast forward through the outrage many rounds on 219 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:23,719 Speaker 3: social media, a bunch of campaign ads that Democrats are 220 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:27,840 Speaker 3: making with that tape, to the response from Senator Joni Ernst, 221 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 3: who went all the way to an actual graveyard to 222 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 3: record a video that maybe we'll call a non apology. 223 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 10: Listen, I would like to take this opportunity to sincerely 224 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 10: apologize for a statement that I made yesterday at my 225 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 10: town hall. 226 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 8: See. 227 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 10: I was in the process of answering a question that 228 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 10: had been asked by an audience member when a woman 229 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 10: who was extremely distraught screamed out from the back corner 230 00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 10: of the auditorium people are going to die. And I 231 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:12,320 Speaker 10: made an incorrect assumption that everyone in the auditorium understood that, yes, 232 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 10: we are all going to perish from this earth. 233 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 2: So on that grim note, let's assemble our political panel today. 234 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:25,679 Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzino is a Wes S. Bloomberg politics contributor, democratic analyst, 235 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 2: and Tenior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the study 236 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:31,320 Speaker 2: of the Presidency and Congress alongside Ashley Davis, Republican strategist 237 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 2: and partner at S three Group. Ashley, I'll come to 238 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 2: you on this one first. As the Republican at the table, 239 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 2: when you are being pressed on issues that actually do 240 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:44,959 Speaker 2: affect people's health and health outcomes and suggest that we're 241 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:47,439 Speaker 2: all going to die anyway, then kind of double down 242 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:50,720 Speaker 2: in that fashion. Does this serve the Senator will does 243 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 2: it serve Republicans at large? 244 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 6: Well, I knew you were coming to me first. I mean, 245 00:12:57,080 --> 00:13:00,439 Speaker 6: Senator Earns is a very serious member as sure, she's 246 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 6: been on the show and she she so I was 247 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 6: actually surprised with the response today. I do think that 248 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,680 Speaker 6: from the initial town hall. These town halls are exhausting, 249 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 6: which is why most people are canceling theirs or they're 250 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 6: being told like because and we all know this, this 251 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 6: is not a political thing. They're being stacked with Democrats 252 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 6: to ask hard questions, which, by the way, Republicans would 253 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 6: do the exact same thing. So I mean, like, this 254 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 6: is not a political statement that I'm making, So I 255 00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 6: thinks think they're exhausting. I think that probably the response 256 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 6: was a little bit worse than the actual mistake to 257 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:34,840 Speaker 6: begin with, she could have just said, like, listen, that 258 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 6: was a little bit out of context or whatever. But 259 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 6: the doubling down, I mean, she's making a strategic decision 260 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 6: to do it. She knows what she's doing. 261 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 3: So with a little bit of snark, Genie, I'm very 262 00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 3: in touch with my own mortality, so I have to 263 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 3: be careful here. I can barely sleep through the night 264 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:51,720 Speaker 3: with this kind of stuff. Is this actually great for Democrats? 265 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:56,840 Speaker 8: It is, you know, and Joe I think you know, 266 00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:58,679 Speaker 8: she woke us all up to the fact that we're 267 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:03,959 Speaker 8: all gonna die. The reality is is that that it 268 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 8: was very strange. It fell flat. Obviously the cemetery walk. 269 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 8: People kept saying it was Ai. It was truly her. 270 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:16,440 Speaker 8: And this is a woman who came to Washington making 271 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 8: her name with the Squealing Pigs commercial that was amazing, 272 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 8: talking about cutting pork, and yet she's doubling down on 273 00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 8: cutting medicaid that impacts forty percent of young people children 274 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 8: in her district in her state rather and fifty percent 275 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 8: of seniors. And so it was strange because as you 276 00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 8: listen to the rest of the town hall, she said 277 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 8: perfectly clearly that she understands how important Medicaid is, she 278 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 8: understands how important it is to her constituents. She could 279 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 8: have just said that and said what Mike Johnson said, 280 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 8: which is we're trying to cut people who are, you know, 281 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 8: playing the system essentially. Now, I don't agree with Mike Johnson, 282 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 8: nor do I give Jony Ernst tips, but I'm really 283 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 8: thinking she needs to go back and listen to his 284 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 8: Meet the Press interview because he explained it a lot 285 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 8: better than she did, and he certainly didn't say, oh, 286 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 8: don't worry, we're all going to die anyways. 287 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 10: Well. 288 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 2: I also wonder how some of her colleagues received this 289 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 2: or viewed this. Senators like Josh Holly, for example, or 290 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 2: Susan Collins, who have raised serious concerns about the cuts 291 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 2: to Medicaid, suggesting they may want to see a different 292 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 2: version through the Senate. Could this kind of episode give 293 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 2: more ammunition to that argument. 294 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 5: I don't know. 295 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 6: I mean, I think this is an issue that is 296 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 6: not going to impact It may impact her because we 297 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 6: have to remember, she's up in twenty twenty six, so 298 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 6: she doesn't have that long to lose this kind of statement, 299 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:43,720 Speaker 6: and obviously the Democrats are going to make tons of 300 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 6: ads over it, But I don't know if it impacts 301 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 6: the broader bill. I think there's so many things happening 302 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 6: behind the scenes. We know that of just all the 303 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 6: different lovers to make sure that we at least don't 304 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 6: lose any more than three votes, and I don't think 305 00:15:57,680 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 6: this impacts it. 306 00:15:58,640 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 5: Well. 307 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 3: We just spoke with a member of Republican House leadership, 308 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 3: of course on the program, Genie and Congresswoman Maclain was 309 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 3: asking hoping maybe that the Senate not make any big 310 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 3: changes to this bill. But based on the conversations we 311 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 3: heard on Sunday morning and of course throughout the week 312 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 3: last week, that's just maybe not going to be the case. 313 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 3: When you talk to Ron Johnson, Ran Paul Tom Tillis, 314 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 3: I could keep going. The idea of a fourth of 315 00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 3: July deadline feels how to you right now? Is that 316 00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 3: even possible? 317 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 8: You know, I wouldn't count it out. But the reality is, 318 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 8: and this will get done, but most likely it gets 319 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 8: done after that, probably August. It was fascinating to hear 320 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 8: the representative because the fact is the Senate is going 321 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,880 Speaker 8: to put their imprint on the bill. There is no 322 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 8: way that the House gets to hope that they can hope, 323 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 8: but they're going to get a reality of the Senate 324 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 8: just rubber stamping what they've done, so that is just 325 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 8: not going to happen. They will be battling about changes, 326 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 8: but in the end they've got to get something passed. 327 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 8: There's just no way that the Senate can fight enough 328 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:07,880 Speaker 8: that they give the House something that it can't pass. 329 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:09,879 Speaker 8: So it will get done, but then they're going to 330 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 8: have to live with the consequences, and that's what the 331 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 8: Joni Ernstown Hall experience shows. Those consequences are going to 332 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 8: be dramatic. On the deficit, on social safety nets, on spending, cuts, 333 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:25,680 Speaker 8: on taxation. They are real and Republicans will feel them 334 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 8: in twenty twenty six and then again in twenty twenty eight. 335 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 2: When we consider the role Democrats play here, Jeanie the 336 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 2: Democratic leader in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, is vowing in 337 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:39,399 Speaker 2: a letter to colleagues to fight back with everything we've got. 338 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 2: What do they really got when this is reconciliation and 339 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:48,640 Speaker 2: it's by design a party line issue. 340 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 8: They don't got much, Kaylee. That's the reality. They're in 341 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 8: the minority. What they do have are gifts like Joni 342 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 8: Ernst and others have given them throughout the process that 343 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,360 Speaker 8: they are going to tag into campaign commercials and take 344 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,720 Speaker 8: out and those impacts are going to be real. When 345 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:05,160 Speaker 8: James Carval says Democrats really need to focus on twenty 346 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,120 Speaker 8: twenty six, twenty twenty eight, that's what they got. They 347 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,119 Speaker 8: got a campaign to fight, because you can't do anything 348 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:14,640 Speaker 8: with washing in Washington unless you control either the House, 349 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 8: the Senate or the White House, and they don't control either. 350 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:21,879 Speaker 6: This is going to be in campaign ads either way, right, Yeah, 351 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 6: you mean Jony Yeah, oh yeah, totally. I mean for 352 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 6: sure for her, one hundred percent. I mean I don't 353 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 6: know if it goes into others because also eighteen months 354 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:32,680 Speaker 6: for everybody else is a long time away. Even though 355 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 6: but listen, I think what I keep saying as well, 356 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 6: just as Genie said, it's going to be really hard 357 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 6: to get this done by the July fourth recess. But 358 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 6: then I also said the exact same thing that Speaker 359 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:46,160 Speaker 6: Johnson wasn't going to do it. Yeah, and everyone else 360 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 6: was too, you know, So I think there's a lot 361 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 6: happening that we all don't know about behind the scenes. 362 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,240 Speaker 6: And again, as I said earlier, the Senators right now 363 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 6: are negotiating in public. They're negotiating with the press. I 364 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,679 Speaker 6: mean to tell their sides of the stories. But so 365 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:03,439 Speaker 6: did the House and then they all come together at 366 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 6: the well. 367 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 2: When we consider that Speaker Johnson was able to meet 368 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:07,919 Speaker 2: his own deadline, he needed the helping hand of the 369 00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 2: President who was having meetings at the White House with 370 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,679 Speaker 2: some of the most difficult members. Is President Trump is 371 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 2: influential for the Senate? Can he give that same helping 372 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 2: hand to. 373 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 6: John Thune for some? I mean, I think to you 374 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 6: very serious members that have very serious concerns, like Senator 375 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:24,879 Speaker 6: Rick Scott, who's very well respected in some of the 376 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 6: healthcare spaces and obviously fiscal spaces. Ron Johnson as well. 377 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 6: I don't think he can move Rand Paul. I think 378 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 6: Rampa as long as the debt ceilings attached, Ram Paul's out, 379 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:37,119 Speaker 6: So I think you lose one vote there. I don't 380 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 6: know if he can help with Holly or not, but 381 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 6: I think he can help with Rick Scott and Ron 382 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:45,640 Speaker 6: Johnson just because of the close relationship. 383 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,399 Speaker 3: They all have. Fascinating well, I'm sure you're going to 384 00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 3: help us learn a lot over the coming days. It's 385 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 3: great to have you with us as ever Ashley Davis, 386 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:56,359 Speaker 3: Republican strategists, alongside Geenie Schanzino, our Democratic analyst, Bloomberg Politics contributor. 387 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 1: Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ketchays live 388 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:07,200 Speaker 1: weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Cocklay 389 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on 390 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 391 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:17,439 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 392 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:19,200 Speaker 2: Watching Well Washington. But we have our eyes on events 393 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:21,880 Speaker 2: elsewhere as well, as we consider not just domestic politics 394 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,920 Speaker 2: but geopolitics too, and ongoing hot conflicts around the world, 395 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 2: including that of course between Russia and Ukraine. A second 396 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 2: round of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine was held 397 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:35,879 Speaker 2: in Turkey today, yielding perhaps not surprisingly, no agreement on 398 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 2: any sort of ceasefire, though there will be another exchange 399 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 2: of prisoners. But Ukraine came to those talks having just 400 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:48,639 Speaker 2: conducted a pretty bold aerial attack inside Russia. Far inside Russia, 401 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:52,639 Speaker 2: We're talking hundreds and hundreds of miles from the front lines, 402 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:56,919 Speaker 2: thanks to, according to President Vladimir Zelinsky, a more than 403 00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,640 Speaker 2: a year and a half long effort to get drones 404 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 2: inside Russian territory deep inside, so much so that they 405 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 2: were within striking distance of some of the most powerful 406 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 2: components of Russia's aerial fleet, those that have been used 407 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 2: to conduct these missile and other strikes on Ukrainian targets, 408 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 2: including civilian targets. Though there is some dispute Joe as 409 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,720 Speaker 2: to the number of aircraft that were ultimately actually hit, yes, 410 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 2: by this drone strike, it's still incredible to see and 411 00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 2: read about. 412 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 3: Well, yeah, you can't deny the video we're looking at 413 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 3: here for our listeners on Bloomberg Radio. It's a shot 414 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 3: from a drone showing these massive Russian bombers burning while 415 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,400 Speaker 3: they're still on the ground having been attacked by these 416 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:41,160 Speaker 3: suicide drones. Really remarkable stuff. Then these spies, to your point, 417 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 3: they worked for months, Kaylie. Ukrainian spies got these quad 418 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,199 Speaker 3: copter drones into Russian territory. There were more than one 419 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,719 Speaker 3: hundred of them, and I guess they were obscured by 420 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:56,359 Speaker 3: these wooden containers that opened by remote control, allowing these 421 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 3: things to fly into the military bases. And it's worth 422 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:04,560 Speaker 3: noting you did target military bases, not civilians, as Russia 423 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 3: continues to do. 424 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,439 Speaker 2: Yeah, which is a contrast that Zelensky is trying to 425 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 2: note in this is that they are trying to take 426 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 2: out Russia's military capacity that's being used against Ukraine, obviously, 427 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 2: but in kind of a different way in that it 428 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:22,479 Speaker 2: is being used really with non military targets in Ukraine 429 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 2: and taking the lives of untold amounts of civilians. 430 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:29,960 Speaker 3: It's being compared to, or being referred to as Russia's 431 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 3: Pearl Harbor. We saw comments in the tip sheets this 432 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 3: morning as well, comparing it to Israel's walkie talkie attack 433 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:41,880 Speaker 3: against Hesbola and Lebanon. Kelly Grico specializes in this type 434 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:43,919 Speaker 3: of thing. We wanted to have her frame it for us, 435 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 3: the senior fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program 436 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,359 Speaker 3: at the Stimpson Center. Kelly, it's great to have you 437 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,919 Speaker 3: back with us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. How 438 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,639 Speaker 3: would you describe this breakthrough by Ukraine? 439 00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 11: Well, first, thank you for having me, and I would 440 00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:06,960 Speaker 11: say this attack clearly was timed for these negotiations and Eastanbul. 441 00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:08,919 Speaker 11: But I would say what's interesting about the attack to 442 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,320 Speaker 11: me is that it goes back to the very roots 443 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 11: of airpower in one way, and that there's always been 444 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:17,920 Speaker 11: an emphasis on attacking air bases, that aircraft are often 445 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,440 Speaker 11: the most vulnerable when they're on the ground, but it's 446 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,400 Speaker 11: a twenty first century version of this by using these 447 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 11: very cheap and expensive quad copters that are carrying explosives 448 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 11: to cause an enormous amount of damage. 449 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:35,520 Speaker 2: Well, when we considered that enormous amount of damage, Kelly 450 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,400 Speaker 2: Knowing Russia says it's more like ten aircraft that were affected. 451 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 2: Ukraine said the number was roughly forty. Do we have 452 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 2: a sense of what this actually does to Russia's capacity 453 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,840 Speaker 2: to conduct the strikes at the pace we've been seeing 454 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:48,439 Speaker 2: in Ukraine? 455 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,520 Speaker 11: Yes, so I don't feel like we really have very 456 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:56,200 Speaker 11: good numbers right now in open source because we want 457 00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:58,920 Speaker 11: to see these things verified. But what I would say 458 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 11: is that this doesn't necessarily going to restrict I think 459 00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:05,760 Speaker 11: in a very significant way Russia's ability to conduct strikes 460 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:09,720 Speaker 11: on Ukraine. In fact, many of these aircraft I suspect 461 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,159 Speaker 11: more probably further back and are not being used in 462 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,840 Speaker 11: these kinds of operations, though they might be rotated forward 463 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 11: at times to bases closer to Ukraine. But what is 464 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 11: significant about it is that these are dual capable aircraft, 465 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:26,880 Speaker 11: meaning that They're also part of Russia's nuclear triad because 466 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 11: they can carry nuclear weapons as well, and so Russia 467 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:31,879 Speaker 11: is going to have to think carefully about to what 468 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,880 Speaker 11: degree it wants to place these assets at risk, including 469 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 11: on the ground. And retaliatory attracts from the Ukrainians because 470 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,040 Speaker 11: it places at risk part of their nuclear triad, and 471 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,440 Speaker 11: that starts to get very serious for uctions. 472 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 3: Well, you wonder what's next here, Kelly, with regard to 473 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:54,600 Speaker 3: a Russian retaliation against Ukraine. Surely this won't be in isolation, 474 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:58,119 Speaker 3: but also whatever Ukraine might have left up its sleeve. 475 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 3: If Ukrainian spy smuggle the hundred roans into Russia for 476 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 3: this event, what else could they have? 477 00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 11: Yes, I mean that's a great question. You know, it's 478 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 11: interesting this attack doesn't come out of nowhere in the 479 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 11: sense that, you know, people have talked about these kinds 480 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:17,320 Speaker 11: of attacks before, particularly about someone conducting something like this 481 00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,359 Speaker 11: against the United States at airbases at home. But the 482 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 11: Ukrainians are the first to do it, and they showed 483 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,440 Speaker 11: a level I think of sophistication and ability to operate 484 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:29,200 Speaker 11: inside Russia to be able to pull something like this off. 485 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 11: They were even bragging on Twitter that One of the 486 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:36,280 Speaker 11: warehouses they use was near an FSB outpost in a 487 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,640 Speaker 11: town that they were right next to it. So it's 488 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:40,800 Speaker 11: quite interesting, and I think you're right, the Russians have 489 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,840 Speaker 11: to ask themselves what could be next. I'm asking myself, 490 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 11: quite honestly, what's next in terms of the Russian response, 491 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,360 Speaker 11: because I think we're going to see a significant escalation 492 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:50,400 Speaker 11: on the part of the Russians. 493 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:55,040 Speaker 2: Well, what would that escalation look like, Kelly? I mean, 494 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,800 Speaker 2: is there serious questions as to whether or not Russia 495 00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,440 Speaker 2: would choose to use part of its nuclear are arsenal. 496 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:02,880 Speaker 2: How can they escalate short of that given everything they're 497 00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:03,440 Speaker 2: already doing. 498 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,320 Speaker 11: Yeah, So I think it's important to remember that back 499 00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:12,320 Speaker 11: in November, Putin changed Russia's nuclear doctrine to clarify that 500 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,440 Speaker 11: it would consider it a attack on Russia that was 501 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 11: a threat to its nuclear arsenal, whether it whether a 502 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,800 Speaker 11: nuclear weapon was used against its nuclear arsenal, or if 503 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,280 Speaker 11: it was a conventional weapon use that threatened its nuclear 504 00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 11: arsenal or its sovereignty, it would reserve the right to 505 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:31,359 Speaker 11: respond with a nuclear weapon. Now, I don't think Russia 506 00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 11: is going to use a nuclear asset in response to 507 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,200 Speaker 11: this but I can't totally rule it out. I think 508 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,639 Speaker 11: it's worth saying, and that, you know, gives me pause 509 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,240 Speaker 11: that I'm even having to say that. I think they're 510 00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 11: going to look though, for something that is very visible, 511 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,280 Speaker 11: and I think signaling, not just to the Ukrainians, but 512 00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 11: I think at this point they're going to want to 513 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,719 Speaker 11: signal to the United States and even China. You know 514 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,680 Speaker 11: that it's nuclear arsenal is non vulnerable, that it's able 515 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:59,919 Speaker 11: to still operate effectively, so not probably a cyber attack, 516 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 11: and could be using a new kind of missile in Ukraine. 517 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,000 Speaker 11: But I think, you know, I wouldn't rule out even 518 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 11: a possibility of some kind of action, perhaps in space. 519 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 11: There's been stories about a new satellite Cosmos that is 520 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 11: suspiciously operating near some US satellites and concerns they might 521 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:19,360 Speaker 11: conduct an anti satellite test in space. I could potentially 522 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 11: see something like that happening as a response. 523 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,560 Speaker 3: Kelly Grico, you're an expert in asymmetric warfare. How does 524 00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:30,520 Speaker 3: this change the United States approach to weapons systems after 525 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 3: what we just saw. 526 00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 11: Well, how it should change it and how it will 527 00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:39,960 Speaker 11: are probably two different things. Unfortunately, you know, I think 528 00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 11: it's clear that, you know, we have a preference for 529 00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:45,920 Speaker 11: high end systems that are expensive, that have a lot 530 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:49,000 Speaker 11: of capability. You know, we see that with you know, 531 00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,680 Speaker 11: the acquisition now of the F forty seven, this new 532 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,520 Speaker 11: fighter aircraft, or the B twenty one, things like that. 533 00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 11: But what Ukraine is I think trying to show us 534 00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:01,920 Speaker 11: is that something that is lower cost is not necessarily ineffective. 535 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,679 Speaker 11: In fact, it can have disproportionate effects. And so what 536 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,239 Speaker 11: I think is concerning is that we keep seeing all 537 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,480 Speaker 11: these messages from Ukraine warning us that these lower cost, 538 00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:16,520 Speaker 11: creative ways of using capabilities can be quite effective, but 539 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,320 Speaker 11: we're not as much investing in that area in our 540 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:23,240 Speaker 11: own defense budget to try to actually maximize our advantage. 541 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 2: All right, Kelly, it's great to have you. As always, 542 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,840 Speaker 2: we appreciate your insight and expertise. Kelly Grico, Senior Fellow 543 00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,400 Speaker 2: with the Reimagining US Greene Strategy program at the Stimson Center. 544 00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:39,040 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 545 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:42,000 Speaker 3: sure to subscribe if you haven't already an Apple, Spotify, 546 00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,680 Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 547 00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:48,000 Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 548 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:49,720 Speaker 3: at bloomberg dot com.