WEBVTT - Growing Consensus on How You Catch COVID-19 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:04.040 It's Monday, June. I'm oscar A Mirrors from the Daily 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:08.160 Dive podcast in Los Angeles, and this is reopening America. 0:00:08.800 --> 0:00:11.240 We have shifted into a new phase in the coronavirus pandemic. 0:00:11.600 --> 0:00:14.760 We're social distancing, washing our hands, wearing face masks, and 0:00:14.800 --> 0:00:17.480 we're reopening the country. I'll still give you updates on 0:00:17.520 --> 0:00:20.239 any new information about the virus and vaccine development, but 0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:23.400 I'll also be focusing on how we're reopening America. Going 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.880 through the coronavirus pandemic has been a learning process for 0:00:25.920 --> 0:00:29.120 both people and governments and how the virus infects someone. 0:00:29.560 --> 0:00:32.000 But there's finally a growing consensus on how you catch 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:35.960 COVID nineteen. Getting sick from touching surfaces or quick encounters 0:00:36.040 --> 0:00:38.040 is less of a worry than close up person of 0:00:38.120 --> 0:00:41.519 person interactions for extended periods of time. It's crucial to 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:44.640 understand how the virus has transmitted because it informs governments 0:00:44.680 --> 0:00:47.960 on the proper ways to reopen economies. We should still 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:50.440 be worried about things like concerts and bars. We need 0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:53.240 to improve ventilation and buildings, and we need to continue 0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:56.840 to wear those face masks. Betsy McKay, Senior writer at 0:00:56.840 --> 0:00:59.279 The Wall Street Journal joins us for more on how 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:02.600 you catch COVID nineteen. Thanks for joining us, Betsy, thanks 0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:06.399 for having me right now. We're finally getting to a 0:01:06.480 --> 0:01:11.399 consensus about how people actually catch COVID nineteen. When we 0:01:11.440 --> 0:01:14.280 first started, there was a lot of concern about surfaces. 0:01:14.640 --> 0:01:17.679 Don't touch things that might be have come in contact 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:19.800 with somebody else that might have had it. We're starting 0:01:19.840 --> 0:01:22.400 to learn that that's a little less worried about that. 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:25.559 And the big worry now is these up close person 0:01:25.600 --> 0:01:28.760 of person interactions for extended periods of time. This is 0:01:29.120 --> 0:01:32.720 really where they're finding that the transmission is happening. Betsy, 0:01:32.720 --> 0:01:34.959 tell us a little bit more about this. Yeah, No, 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:38.320 you're absolutely right. When this pandemic first started, I think 0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:41.440 we all thought, gee, everything's at risk. I can get 0:01:41.440 --> 0:01:45.400 it anywhere surfaces just breathing the air around me. Now 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:47.920 it really does seem like it is, as you said, 0:01:48.080 --> 0:01:51.800 close up person to person interactions, and that can be 0:01:51.840 --> 0:01:55.160 a lot of things. You know, um, so crowded events 0:01:55.400 --> 0:01:57.960 where you have a lot of people. You may have 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:01.200 heard the term super spreader event, and and that happens 0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:04.960 when there's one infective person. You know, really confined space, 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:11.440 maybe talking loudly, and the air the room is poorly ventilated. 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:14.480 So these types of things. You know, there's a famous 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:18.640 study now, a famous event a church choir rehearsal, where 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:23.520 percent of the people who were there actually got infected 0:02:23.720 --> 0:02:27.160 just from one person being infected, and that scientists believe 0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:30.560 is because of all the singing. When you sing, you project. 0:02:31.160 --> 0:02:34.560 So as we start to learn more about this, it 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:38.280 starts to help policymakers figure out okay, what's okay and 0:02:38.360 --> 0:02:41.480 what's not okay going forward. Yeah, and just a little 0:02:41.480 --> 0:02:44.120 bit more on that church example that you were talking about, 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:47.240 because it's important. All told, fifty three of the sixty 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:50.200 one attendees at that practice got infected. But it was 0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:52.760 a two and a half hour practice. The members of 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:56.280 the choir changed places four times, and as you mentioned, 0:02:56.320 --> 0:02:59.360 they were tightly packed in their confined space. They were 0:02:59.400 --> 0:03:01.919 mostly all they're so all they were doing was just 0:03:02.000 --> 0:03:05.120 kind of playing this musical chairs with each other, continuously 0:03:05.200 --> 0:03:08.200 spreading that in that one confined space. These are the 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:11.760 things that we're worried about. And you mentioned how learning 0:03:11.840 --> 0:03:15.800 this informs governments on how to reopen. That's why things 0:03:15.880 --> 0:03:19.520 like concerts going to a bar, even going to the 0:03:19.560 --> 0:03:24.280 gym can be a really problematic area. Right. Some people 0:03:24.440 --> 0:03:27.720 ask where the lockdowns necessary, because we have to lockdown 0:03:27.760 --> 0:03:31.360 absolutely everything, And the people I've talked to have said, 0:03:31.400 --> 0:03:34.600 look pretty much yes, for two reasons. One, they didn't 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:36.320 know where the dangers were and there was no way 0:03:36.400 --> 0:03:39.400 to know it at that point. You know, the virus 0:03:39.400 --> 0:03:42.600 from only five and anths months old or it's only 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:46.680 been spreading five and a half one. The second thing is, um, 0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:49.400 you just don't know where the next danger is going 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:52.280 to come when you've got so many people, for example 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:56.040 in New York City who are infective. But now you know, now, 0:03:56.120 --> 0:03:59.120 while you've got outbreaks all over the country, and it's 0:03:59.160 --> 0:04:03.360 certainly a huge concern, it's a little less, little less intense. 0:04:03.760 --> 0:04:08.400 So this will be help going forward, um figuring out 0:04:08.760 --> 0:04:11.280 you know, what stores should do to reopen or what 0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:15.640 you know, but not bars for example. Yeah, and especially 0:04:15.640 --> 0:04:17.919 you know a bar very cramped, it's kind of loud 0:04:17.920 --> 0:04:19.320 in there, so what are you going to be doing 0:04:19.720 --> 0:04:22.960 talking very loudly? And that's gonna you know, enhance the 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:25.039 viral particles that are going to be out in the air. 0:04:25.360 --> 0:04:27.680 There are two large recent studies that showed that the 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:31.000 wide scale lockdowns and stay at home orders did prevent 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:33.640 millions of infections and debths around the world. Just as 0:04:33.640 --> 0:04:36.920 you were saying, tell me a little bit about the 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:41.240 attack rate with which this spreads. And then this kind 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:44.800 of you know people have heard like the rule. There's 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:47.720 this kind of ten eighty rule where the it's an 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:50.200 estimated that ten percent of people with COVID nineteen are 0:04:50.240 --> 0:04:54.120 responsible for about eight of transmissions. So there is this 0:04:54.160 --> 0:04:56.520 thing called the attack rate, which is the percentage of 0:04:56.560 --> 0:04:59.400 people who were infected at a given place or time. 0:04:59.480 --> 0:05:03.960 For examp people at this this church choir rehearsal, which 0:05:03.960 --> 0:05:05.960 we should say took place in March, when people knew 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:08.200 very little about this virus. So it wasn't you know, 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:10.560 people didn't understand their risk when they were coming to 0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:14.520 this thing. So it's that of the attendees were infected. 0:05:14.920 --> 0:05:18.599 So so the attack rate um can be very high 0:05:18.880 --> 0:05:23.240 in these in these crowded types of events. Also in homes, 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:28.000 particularly where you have multi generation multiple generations living many 0:05:28.080 --> 0:05:30.920 people in a small home, or just other places where 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:34.919 people people come together um in you know, have extended 0:05:35.240 --> 0:05:38.720 exposure to each other in tight quarters or a place 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:41.039 that's just poorly ventilated, so you don't have the air 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:44.640 circulating and the the virus able to disperse. So this 0:05:45.200 --> 0:05:49.760 idea that ten percent of the people are responsible for 0:05:49.800 --> 0:05:53.279 about eight percent of transmissions. That's from a recent study, 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:56.680 and what it's describing are these so called super spreader 0:05:56.760 --> 0:06:00.080 events where you have um, you know, one person in 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:02.720 at a conference. For example, there was a conference in 0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:07.080 Boston in March. Um this church choir would be another. 0:06:07.520 --> 0:06:11.480 Certainly the cruise ships um so months ago. These were 0:06:11.480 --> 0:06:15.120 also super spurturban. You just have several factors to come together, 0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:18.000 both environmental and there may be something about that that 0:06:18.120 --> 0:06:21.440 effected person they speak loudly or where they're standing or whatever, 0:06:22.000 --> 0:06:24.719 um and and so then you end up getting a 0:06:24.760 --> 0:06:29.400 lot of people infected at once. The opposite of that 0:06:29.720 --> 0:06:32.440 is that that means that a lot of people aren't 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:35.080 actually infecting anybody else. If you have a small number 0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:40.360 of people infecting ten people infecting, ten percent of the 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:44.120 infected people infecting more, that means you've got a large 0:06:44.240 --> 0:06:48.120 number of people who are not infecting either anybody or 0:06:48.160 --> 0:06:51.240 a very small number of people. And that definitely makes 0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:53.960 that definitely makes the case for wearing face masks. You know, 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:57.479 if if you were talking loudly and you know, spouting 0:06:57.480 --> 0:07:00.200 out those viral particles, you know, face mask, it's not 0:07:00.200 --> 0:07:03.360 gonna stop everything. It is going to help a lot. 0:07:03.600 --> 0:07:07.320 And you think about transitioning back into the workplace, I mean, 0:07:07.360 --> 0:07:09.760 this leads me to believe that you know, there will 0:07:09.840 --> 0:07:12.000 be no more conference rooms. You know, why would you 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:14.680 put a lot of people in a small space sitting 0:07:14.680 --> 0:07:16.760 next to each other and you know, what do you have? 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:19.600 You have a speaker, you have people taking turns talking 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:21.680 like that. We've proved that we can do without those 0:07:21.720 --> 0:07:24.440 now with virtual meetings and whatnot, So that seems like 0:07:24.640 --> 0:07:27.480 that could be something that goes by the wayside as well. 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:30.760 You know, the idea of holding a large event indoors. 0:07:31.360 --> 0:07:34.920 It's really difficult to justify right now because you never 0:07:34.960 --> 0:07:37.520 know if somebody's infected, and you know, it's important for 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:41.720 everybody to remember that if you're infected, you can start 0:07:41.920 --> 0:07:45.600 spreading the virus to other people two days before you 0:07:45.640 --> 0:07:49.119 show any symptoms yourself. So we actually don't know who's 0:07:49.160 --> 0:07:52.840 infected in a group of people, either nobody or people 0:07:52.880 --> 0:07:56.440 who aren't aren't sick yet, So there's a strong argument 0:07:56.520 --> 0:07:59.680 for masks and for everybody to wear a mask because 0:07:59.720 --> 0:08:01.480 you don't know if you're infected, and you don't know 0:08:01.520 --> 0:08:04.400 who around you is infected, and so if you both 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:06.800 wear it, it's it's a way to protect everybody and 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:11.120 just keep the air clean. You know this this basically, 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:14.640 this disease spreads through um it's kind of a gross term, 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:18.360 but respiratory droplets. The virus comes out with spit and 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:21.240 there's either little tiny pieces of spit that hang in 0:08:21.240 --> 0:08:23.640 the air a while, and then there's large pieces that 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:27.040 kind of fall to a surface right away. And um. 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:30.280 The idea when you get in these consigned spaces, particularly 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:33.120 those that aren't well ventilated, that's another thing. Building codes 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:35.960 are probably going to have to change. Right Um, when 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:39.240 you get you get this sort of build up virus, 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:41.160 and that's that's one way you get a lot of 0:08:41.160 --> 0:08:45.160 people infected. Yeah, I mean, it's super important to understand 0:08:45.160 --> 0:08:47.439 how this works so that we can change those policies. 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:50.119 As you just mentioned right now, you know, better ventilation 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:53.439 systems and buildings probably across the board is what we're 0:08:53.440 --> 0:08:56.319 gonna end up needing. But you know, learning so much 0:08:56.360 --> 0:08:58.480 more about this and it's starting to click in my 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:02.000 head a little bit why this might be so difficult 0:09:02.040 --> 0:09:04.720 for some people to go through, because it's almost like 0:09:04.720 --> 0:09:06.880 a changing of a lifestyle really that we have to 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:09.160 go through in real time right now. You know, we 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:11.400 have to adjust the way we've been doing things for 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:14.120 so long so that we can limit the spread of this. 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:17.240 You know, these person a person encounters. You know, people 0:09:17.240 --> 0:09:19.320 are so used to this in the workplace and just 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:21.800 in their general lives, and we have to kind of 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:24.720 moderate how we do that now. You know, you also 0:09:24.760 --> 0:09:27.120 want to know where it's safe. One of the things 0:09:27.120 --> 0:09:30.080 that inspired me to do this story was I was 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:33.400 wondering for myself and my faith outside, like could I 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:35.480 get it from a passer by, you know, walking on 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:38.960 the street, And so I started looking into it, and 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:42.000 the answer is, you know, the chances are really low. 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:45.040 It's because because it's just such a fleeting encounter and 0:09:45.120 --> 0:09:48.840 somebody's passing you by, and your outdoors where the viral 0:09:48.880 --> 0:09:52.880 particles would disperse pretty quickly and some lay will you 0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:55.880 help decay it and all that stuff, You're actually pretty safe. 0:09:55.880 --> 0:09:58.360 So I think it's helpful for people to know, you know, 0:09:58.400 --> 0:10:01.400 we can't think of ourselves and these total lockdowns forever. 0:10:01.480 --> 0:10:06.000 I think it's it's economically impossible, it's for the rest 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:09.640 of our health, physical and mental health, very very difficult. 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:13.280 And so knowing what you can do and what you 0:10:13.320 --> 0:10:16.120 really shouldn't do, UM, and that there are things you 0:10:16.160 --> 0:10:18.880 can do, I think is is really helpful for us 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:22.200 as we move forward, knowing that we have a long 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:25.320 ways to go before we come out of this. Yeah, 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:28.360 I totally agree. UM. You know, spending that time outdoors, 0:10:28.440 --> 0:10:31.719 given yourself and your body, that kind of respite from 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:34.680 being on that lockdown is so important, and you can 0:10:34.720 --> 0:10:37.600 at least have a little more confidence now knowing that 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:41.040 you're generally safer in that sense, and you know, as 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:43.320 you mentioned, you know where to keep away from UH 0:10:43.360 --> 0:10:46.440 in order to help yourself. So some very good information. 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:50.480 Betsy McKay, senior writer at The Wall Street Journal, Thank 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:53.000 you very much for joining us. Well, thanks so much 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:58.400 for having me. I'm Oscar Ramirez and this is reopening America. 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:01.439 Don't forget day's big news stories. You can check me 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:04.040 out on the Daily Dive podcast every Monday through Friday. 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:06.719 We'll follow us on I Heart Radio or wherever you 0:11:06.760 --> 0:11:07.560 get your podcast.