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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Daybreak EUROP podcast. Good morning, It's Tuesday, the thirtieth of December.

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Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carolyn London. Coming up today. The price of

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Speaker 1: silver rebounds after plunging by the most in years as

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Speaker 1: traders booked profits. We have a special report on how

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Speaker 1: China's shadow lng fleet is offering a lifeline to Putin

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Speaker 1: plus Arise Sir Idris. The UK's new year's honors list

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Speaker 1: is revealed, including knighthoods for the actor as well as

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Speaker 1: for the new ambassador to the US. Let's start with

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Speaker 1: a roundup of our top stories. The price of silver

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Speaker 1: is rebounding after its biggest one day drop and more

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Speaker 1: than five years. The white metal is trading around seventy

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Speaker 1: four dollars announce, following a nine percent slide in the

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Speaker 1: previous session as traders booked profits following a powerful year

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Speaker 1: end rally. Mike mcglow has senior Commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Speaker 2: The narratives that they're using now for pulling up silver

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Speaker 2: have been around for years. We've all known about the

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Speaker 2: demand from soul and everything, But to me now it's

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Speaker 2: in that speculative excesses stage. I think people are realizing

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Speaker 2: it's much more beneficial maybe to allocates to some precious

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Speaker 2: metals where there's only four versus cryptocurrencies where there's.

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Speaker 1: Twenty eight million, Mike McGowan speaking there as Gold also

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Speaker 1: regained its footing and trading today following its steepest drop

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Speaker 1: in two months. Despite the sudden pullback this week, both

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Speaker 1: precious metals are still on track for their best annual

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Speaker 1: performances since.

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Speaker 3: Nineteen seventy nine.

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Speaker 1: Russian President Vladimir Putin says he will revise his country's

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Speaker 1: negotiating position after claiming Ukrainian drones targeted his residence. According

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Speaker 1: to the Kremlin, Putin told you US President Trump of

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Speaker 1: his decision in a call on Monday. Kiev has cast

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Speaker 1: the Russian claims as fabrication aimed at derailing the peace process,

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Speaker 1: his Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, whose words are spoken

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Speaker 1: by a translator.

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Speaker 4: Much on the night from the twenty eighth to the

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Speaker 4: twenty ninth through Decent twenty twenty five, the Kiev regime

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Speaker 4: carried out a terrorist attack using ninety one long range

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Speaker 4: attacking drones against the State residents of the Russian President

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Speaker 4: in the Novgorod region. All drones were destroyed by the

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Speaker 4: air defense system of the Russian Armed Forces. No information

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Speaker 4: has been received for regarding casualties or damage caused by

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Speaker 4: the drone debris.

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Speaker 1: Lavrov adda that Russia will retaliate and that targets had

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Speaker 1: already been selected. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski dismissed the Russian

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Speaker 1: claims as a new lie and warned that Moscow could

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Speaker 1: be using it as an excuse to prepare an attack

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Speaker 1: on government buildings in Kiev. However, President Trump appeared to

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Speaker 1: side with Putin while speaking with reporters.

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Speaker 5: So one thing to be offensive because they are offensive,

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Speaker 5: it's another day to attack his house. It's not the

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Speaker 5: right time to do any of that, and can't do it.

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Speaker 5: And I learned about it from President Bonde was very.

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Speaker 3: Angry about it, as when Trump was speaking.

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Speaker 1: As one Kremlin advisor told Russian media that while Moscow

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Speaker 1: intends to work closely with it's the US on peace efforts,

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Speaker 1: it will reconsider a number of previously reached agreements. The

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Speaker 1: US president meanwhile, it's threatened to strike Iran again if

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Speaker 1: the country rebuilds its nuclear capacities. Speaking as he met

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Speaker 1: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Neettan Yahoo, Donald Trump expressed concern

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Speaker 1: that Iran is seeking to revive the program.

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Speaker 6: Now.

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Speaker 5: I hear that Iran is trying to build up again,

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Speaker 5: and if they are, we're going to have to knock

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Speaker 5: him down.

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Speaker 3: We'll knock him down. We'll knock the hell out of them.

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Speaker 3: But hopefully that's not happening.

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Speaker 5: I heard Iran.

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Speaker 7: Wants to make a deal.

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Speaker 5: If they want to make a deal, that's much smarter.

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Speaker 5: You know, they could have made a deal the less

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Speaker 5: time before we went through, you know, the big attack

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Speaker 5: on them.

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Speaker 1: The US President also said he would support Israel and

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Speaker 1: striking Iran if it continued with its ballistic missile program.

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Speaker 3: The comments comments.

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Speaker 1: Tehran has seen a wave of protests after the local

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Speaker 1: currency slumped to a record low, pushing up food prices

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Speaker 1: and deepening an economic crisis in the sanctions hit country.

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Speaker 1: Pockets of London, so called Stockbroker Belt, suffered as the

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Speaker 1: biggest house price declines in twenty twenty five, as the

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Speaker 1: southeast of England and the capital fell behind other regions

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Speaker 1: with more Here's Bloomberg's Crispit.

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Speaker 7: The figures from Lloyd's Bank reveal a chasm in house

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Speaker 7: price growth between areas in and around the capital, the

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Speaker 7: most expensive in the UK, and the rest of the country.

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Speaker 7: The West Sussex town of Crawley and high Wickham saw

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Speaker 7: the biggest falls of any UK town or city, with

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Speaker 7: prices there falling by eight point nine percent and seven

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Speaker 7: point four percent respectively. The figures are in stark contrast

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Speaker 7: to large swedes of the rest of the UK, with

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Speaker 7: Plymouth and the southwest of Stafford in the West Midlands

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Speaker 7: topping the list for house price growth in twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 7: with both areas enjoying increases of more than twelve percent.

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Speaker 7: In London, Chrispit, Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: Radio and more than one thousand people have been recognized

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Speaker 1: in the UK's New Year Honors list. Actress Idris Elber

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Speaker 1: as being whilst reh Aviigman has been made an honorary

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Speaker 1: Dame after leading England's women's football team to back to

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Speaker 1: back victories at the Euro's Former Olympic Ice dancers Jane

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Speaker 1: Torvill and Christopher Dean are also being honored. They say

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Speaker 1: they're thrilled with the accolade.

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Speaker 8: It looks like a.

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Speaker 3: Little kid jumping up and down. It can sit still.

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Speaker 8: I mean, it's such an amazing award to honor and

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Speaker 8: we're really humbled by it. We've been together for fifty

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Speaker 8: years and skated and performed and entertained over all that time.

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Speaker 1: Jane Torville and Christopher Dean speaking there. The UK's new

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Speaker 1: ambassador to the US, Christian Turner, is also being knighted

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Speaker 1: for services to foreign policy, alongside Barbara Woodward, a diplomat

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Speaker 1: who will be named Deputy National Security Advisor and is

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Speaker 1: set to become a dame with Those are your top

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Speaker 1: stories on the markets. The MSCIS Pacific Index flat this morning,

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Speaker 1: the NICKA in Tokyo down three tenths of one percent.

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Speaker 1: The Hangkstang in Hong Kong, though up by one percent.

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Speaker 1: Eurostocks fifty features are just slightly lower this morning, as

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Speaker 1: our SMPM and e's on Wall Street. The tenure treasury

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Speaker 1: yield is up a basis point to four point one

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Speaker 1: two percent in a moment more on the volatility in

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Speaker 1: gold and silver prices, plus a Bloomberg investigation takes you

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Speaker 1: inside China's shadow LNG fleet that's offering a lifeline to

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin.

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Speaker 3: Another story that I've been reading this morning about.

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Speaker 1: The rise of the silver content creator Bloomberg Opinions, Andrea

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Speaker 1: Papuk has been writing about the wave of influencers who

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Speaker 1: are gaining followers into their sixties and beyond. Take for example,

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Speaker 1: Aki and Kochi, who are a couple from California in

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Speaker 1: their seventies or a huge hit on social media showcasing

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Speaker 1: their daily outfits. Andrea writes this is both the reflection

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Speaker 1: of how wealthy this generation is, but also how it

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Speaker 1: particularly provides a voice for older women to reclaim their

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Speaker 1: voice and visibility.

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Speaker 3: She says it'll.

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Speaker 1: Take more than a bunch of influencers to dismantle unconscious

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Speaker 1: bias in the workplace that limits's career progression, But she

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Speaker 1: says we shouldn't dismiss the impact of the rise of

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Speaker 1: these older influencers either. As populations age and people delay

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Speaker 1: their retirement, these third age influencers are restoring some relevance

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Speaker 1: and legitimacy to age groups which are sidelined in many professions,

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Speaker 1: and it signals to those born after nineteen eighty that's

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Speaker 1: shaping tastes, sparking trends, and driving product interest online doesn't

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Speaker 1: have to fizzle out as the years pass, and you

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Speaker 1: can still have digital clout for decades to come. Perhaps

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Speaker 1: some comfort to those of us who are thinking ahead

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Speaker 1: into the future. You can read Andre's peach a Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot com forwards Lash opinion, and we'll put a link

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Speaker 1: to it in our podcast show notes as well. Let's

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Speaker 1: turn back to what's been happening on markets as well,

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Speaker 1: as well as that plunge that we've seen in silver

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Speaker 1: and goal prices, some rebound in trading today, our market's

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Speaker 1: live stretch. As Mark Cranfield is with us now for

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Speaker 1: more and more. Good to talk to you. So pretty

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Speaker 1: dramatic drops in silver in particular down nine percent yesterday,

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Speaker 1: Goal down as much as five percent. Talk us through

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Speaker 1: where things are trading today and what we should be

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Speaker 1: reading into this volatility.

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Speaker 9: Both a little bit higher today. In fact, it is

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Speaker 9: platting on which is helping out quite a bit. That's

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Speaker 9: helping to push silver higher. Goal is higher, but it's

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Speaker 9: lugging behind the other two. Quite a bit of it though,

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Speaker 9: has got to do with the weakness in the US dollar,

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Speaker 9: and some of that is because of the Chinese currency.

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Speaker 9: As you were saying earlier it's gone below dollar yu one.

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Speaker 9: That's gone below seven for the first time in a

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Speaker 9: couple of years for the onshore market, so that's generally

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Speaker 9: helping currencies. Australian dollars one of the best performance today

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Speaker 9: and that's typically what happens when the yue is also

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Speaker 9: performing well. As far as silver is concerned, though it's

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Speaker 9: rebounding slightly today, it probably isn't going to last because

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Speaker 9: the way in which it reversed after the cash market

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Speaker 9: reached about eighty four at one stage yesterday, we're trading

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Speaker 9: down to seventy four now, but during that reversal it

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Speaker 9: was on huge trading volumes. People talk about this time

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Speaker 9: of year being quiet, thin liquidity, there is no indication

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Speaker 9: at all that they were seeing liquidity in the precious metals.

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Speaker 9: In fact, if you look at the futures market, the

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Speaker 9: combined volumes for Friday and Monday were the two biggest

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Speaker 9: days of the year in twenty twenty five, even though

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Speaker 9: it's December, so it shows you there's still a lot

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Speaker 9: of people involved in the market and the speed of

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Speaker 9: liter reverse suggests that silver will probably have a soft

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Speaker 9: start to twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: I mean the year today figures are incredible for silver

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Speaker 1: a nearly one hundred and sixty percent higher, gold up

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Speaker 1: some sixty seven percent. Should we expect to see as

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Speaker 1: much of a focus on these precious metals into twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six as we have this year.

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Speaker 9: Well, it's an unusual set of conditions which have come

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Speaker 9: together to make precious metals in demand, and for the moment,

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Speaker 9: those things are very much in place. So you have

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Speaker 9: falling interest rates in the United States. We still expect

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Speaker 9: for the Reserve to lower interest rates a couple more

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Speaker 9: times next year. You have a relatively weak US dollar.

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Speaker 9: Chances are that the dollar will stay under pressure next year.

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Speaker 9: That's all supportive of precious metals. In addition to that,

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Speaker 9: you have a lot of geopolitical tension around the world,

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Speaker 9: whether it's UK and Russia, whether it's China, Taiwan, whether

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Speaker 9: it's other parts of the Middle East as well, all

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Speaker 9: of those things. In fact, some people describe twenty twenty

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Speaker 9: five as are on the busiest year for geopolitics for

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Speaker 9: a decade now. Obviously, silver gold are places that people

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Speaker 9: tend to go to as a hedge against that. So

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Speaker 9: you have this unusual situation where it's both being used

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Speaker 9: as a hedge and as a play on what's happening

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Speaker 9: in the monetary policy situation as well. It doesn't often

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Speaker 9: come together at the same time. So all of those

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Speaker 9: things that are very much in place, and they will

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Speaker 9: probably continue to support the precious metals into the early

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Speaker 9: part of the year at least.

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Speaker 3: Mark.

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Speaker 1: We've spoken many times over the past year on days

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Speaker 1: when we've seen big market movements, But I wonder when

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Speaker 1: you look back as the year as a whole, I mean,

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Speaker 1: is it the geopolitics that characterize the moves we've seen

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Speaker 1: on markets? Is twenty twenty five going to be remembered

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Speaker 1: as an exceptional year on markets?

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Speaker 9: I think what we've learned this year is the influence

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Speaker 9: of governments is probably greater on financial markets, and it's

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Speaker 9: been for a very long time. So typically, if you're

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Speaker 9: a trader, you look at what central banks are doing,

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Speaker 9: You look at where they're positioned in terms of hiring,

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Speaker 9: whether raising or lowering interest rates, what that means for

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Speaker 9: various financial markets, and then governments are somewhere down the

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Speaker 9: list that has gone completely the other way around. Now

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Speaker 9: clearly what's happening and we see it particularly United States,

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Speaker 9: in China and Japan, the moves by governments, whether it's

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Speaker 9: to influence fiscal policy, whether it's to influence geopolitics, is

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Speaker 9: having a much greater weight on the thinking in financial

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Speaker 9: markets even than what central banks are doing. So that

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Speaker 9: is a change which has really taken place this year

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Speaker 9: and may well continue through into next year as well.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Mark, thanks so much for joining us for your analysis.

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Speaker 1: As always our market's live strategist, Mark Cranfield, stay with us.

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Speaker 1: More from Bloomberg Daybreak Europe coming up after this.

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Speaker 6: Now.

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Speaker 1: A shipping network designed to circumvent restrictions on sanctioned Russian

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Speaker 1: gas has been quietly growing thanks to cooperation between Beijing

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Speaker 1: and Moscow. Russia has been working with China to create

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Speaker 1: a parallel system similar to the one it uses for

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Speaker 1: oil that's less vulnerable to Western intervention. Bloomberg has been

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Speaker 1: investigating the extent of this network, and Steven Stopchinski, who

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Speaker 1: leads our team covering energy and as it, joins us

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Speaker 1: now for more.

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Speaker 3: Stephen, good to talk to you.

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Speaker 1: How big is this network of shadow vessels that's moving

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Speaker 1: Russian LNG.

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Speaker 10: So we've been able to identify fifteen vessels that are

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Speaker 10: in the shadow fleet, linking either to Russia or to China.

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Speaker 10: Now this is relatively small in the grand scheme of things.

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Speaker 10: The Shadow oil fleet has over one thousand vessels. But

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Speaker 10: I think what's interesting here is this is just the beginning.

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Speaker 10: There are more vessels that could potentially be added as

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Speaker 10: they get older. Generally, the shadow fleet operates on older vessels,

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Speaker 10: and there are now ten percent of the global LNG

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Speaker 10: fleet that are over twenty years old. That is potentially,

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Speaker 10: you know, going to be scrapped. They're seen as dinosaurs.

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Speaker 10: They're too old to continue operating. And that's where the

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Speaker 10: shadow fleet kind of operates in that realm where the

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Speaker 10: people behind the scenes could potentially decide to buy these

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Speaker 10: vessels instead of going to the scrapyard. They offer a

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Speaker 10: little bit more money to get them, turn them dark

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Speaker 10: and start delivering this sanctioned fuel from Russia to China.

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Speaker 1: Talk to us about the role that China is playing

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Speaker 1: and I suppose creating this fleece.

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Speaker 10: So what's interesting is it's not just helping to create

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Speaker 10: the fleet, but they're also the buyer.

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Speaker 3: Right, you can't have a shadow fleet.

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Speaker 10: If you just have people selling the energy and putting

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Speaker 10: it on the water in going places. That's what happened

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Speaker 10: in twenty twenty four. The US had slaped the Biden

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Speaker 10: administration slab sanctions on Russia's Arctic energy to facility in

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Speaker 10: northern Russia in twenty twenty three. When it began producing,

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Speaker 10: they just couldn't find any buyers.

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Speaker 3: No one wanted to touch it.

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Speaker 10: The Biden administration sanctioned all the energy vessels that went

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Speaker 10: to the facility, the shadow fleet ships, and no one

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Speaker 10: wanted it. But now in twenty twenty five, the Chinese

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Speaker 10: have basically designated one energy import terminal in southern China

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Speaker 10: called Behai, to just only take sanctioned energy from Russia.

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Speaker 10: That's likely to help insulate their other companies which buy

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Speaker 10: energy from the United States and other Western nations that

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Speaker 10: have slap sanctions on Russia. And so one they're a buyer.

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Speaker 10: Two they're helping to start to collect some vessels. Two

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Speaker 10: ships have been identified that have not been sanctioned yet

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Speaker 10: by the United States or Western authorities that are helping

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Speaker 10: to ferry fuel from sanctioned Russian plants or Russian ships. Now,

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Speaker 10: all of this together is creating sort of this network

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Speaker 10: that is allowing Russia to export the sanctioned fuel and

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Speaker 10: again sort of mimic that peril network that we saw

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Speaker 10: built for oil.

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Speaker 3: This is a fascinating piece of reporting. Stephen.

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Speaker 1: Can you talk us a little bit through how you

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Speaker 1: and the team managed to track these ships?

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 10: I mean, first off, there is a lot of these

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Speaker 10: ships have AI S tracking systems in them, so we're

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Speaker 10: able to see where they're going and when they pick

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Speaker 10: up sanctioned fuel. Now the Chinese ships are a bit

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Speaker 10: trickier we have to look at. Basically, we talked to

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Speaker 10: brokers to figure out how these ships are are are

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Speaker 10: being purchased or sold. When an old ship is purchased

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Speaker 10: by an unknown company, that kind of puts off an

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Speaker 10: alarm bell within the industry that says, hey, maybe this

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Speaker 10: ship is trying to go dark. Now, there was one

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Speaker 10: ship called CCH Gas that did a ship to ship

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Speaker 10: transfer with a sanctioned Russian vessel. We were able to

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Speaker 10: track it from the very beginning with satellites. When when

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Speaker 10: the ship docked next to the sanctioned vessel we got

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Speaker 10: a tip off, we were able to take satellite pictures.

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Speaker 10: I've also been able to track what's happening on the

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Speaker 10: CCCH Gas and other other ships because of social media

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Speaker 10: posts by the recruiters that have helped recruit crew for

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Speaker 10: the ship, All's Safairs who have posted pictures on Instagram,

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Speaker 10: which is very interesting the age of social media as

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Speaker 10: well giving transparency two things that probably these ship owners

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Speaker 10: and operators don't want transparency for.

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