Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: I want to welcome everyone here, and this is a
Speaker 2: forum to talk about investment ideas and a frame of reference.
Speaker 2: And we have the task of explaining how to navigate
Speaker 2: the current business climate, and these two gentlemen we'll explain
Speaker 2: to us how we can frame the current events that
Speaker 2: we're facing off with and how companies are grappling with
Speaker 2: them at a time where the business climate changes in
Speaker 2: thirty minute increments. Joining us here is Ray MacGuire, president
Speaker 2: of Lazard, as well as the seventieth US Secretary of
Speaker 2: the Treasury, Robert Rubin. They have both told me that
Speaker 2: I can call them Bob and Ray or your honor.
Speaker 2: I want to start with this question of where are
Speaker 2: your honor If you want.
Speaker 3: Your honor, your people in Congress who called me things
Speaker 3: far south of Bob, I'll tell you, well.
Speaker 2: Hopefully we don't go there, but I do want to
Speaker 2: start with just where we are in the day's news,
Speaker 2: which is the tariffs and this idea that we got
Speaker 2: twenty five percent tariffs actually put on Mexico on Canada,
Speaker 2: an additional ten percent tariffs put on China. I want
Speaker 2: to start with you, Ray, how are companies making sense
Speaker 2: of this?
Speaker 1: You know it.
Speaker 4: We're in the early stages of this tariff diplomacy, if
Speaker 4: you will, geopolitical diplomacy, and boards and senior managements are
Speaker 4: now trying to assess the implications. It's been advertised for
Speaker 4: a while and today it's begun to be implemented. Having
Speaker 4: said that, there's also the suggestion that in April there's
Speaker 4: going to be a reset, so there'll be a review,
Speaker 4: and most investors, most companies do take a long term view,
Speaker 4: and so we'll see how this early move on the
Speaker 4: chess board plays out. People are assessing, companies are assessing
Speaker 4: them implications, But for the most part, there's a long
Speaker 4: term view that is now being contemplated. We've not seen
Speaker 4: this level of terrorist at least in modern times. We've
Speaker 4: seen it historically, the implications of which historically have been
Speaker 4: pretty dramatic, and we'll see today whether or not the
Speaker 4: implications are going to be equally as dramatic.
Speaker 2: Bob, how do you take a long term view when
Speaker 2: it's unclear what the destination is?
Speaker 1: Well, I have the following deal.
Speaker 3: I think these are going to adverse the effect us
Speaker 3: with respect inflation. The adverse effects us respect the growth,
Speaker 3: adversity effect productivity, but I think is an even bigger
Speaker 3: point in some respects Lisa, we have treaty obligations with
Speaker 3: Canada and Mexico and we have now violated congressionally approved treaties.
Speaker 3: What does that do to our credibility around the world
Speaker 3: aspect to our commitments? And that can adversity affect us
Speaker 3: geo politically and adversity effect us economically. We have spent
Speaker 3: all these years since World War Two developing alliances and
Speaker 3: allies excuse me, supported by all sorts of commitments in
Speaker 3: our our partner has been enormously in our economic self interest,
Speaker 3: well in our economic self interest, in our geopolitical self interest,
Speaker 3: and I think we're putting.
Speaker 1: All that at risk.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 2: Do you see companies thinking about it that way or
Speaker 2: dealing with international partners who are calling into question some
Speaker 2: of the framework of being able to come through the.
Speaker 1: Answers that and I agree with Bob.
Speaker 4: Companies are being forced to now contemplate variables that historically
Speaker 4: we haven't contemplated. Remember the peak of US manufacturing happened
Speaker 4: in nineteen seventy nine. Between nineteen seventy nine and today,
Speaker 4: we have relied on a supply chain that has been
Speaker 4: so dependent upon our international partners, especially our closest one
Speaker 4: being Canada in Mexico, and so as that begins to
Speaker 4: be challenged, how we onshore or at some point we
Speaker 4: talked about nearshoring and near sharing was canadon in Mexico.
Speaker 4: Since we've now applied tariffs to those countries, it's unclear
Speaker 4: how US manufacturers will navigate.
Speaker 1: So we're exposed.
Speaker 4: The corporate America is exposed, especially those in the industrial
Speaker 4: in the industrial arena's technology, perhaps a little less soil
Speaker 4: that we have exposure to what's taking place on the
Speaker 4: chip front, But the implications here on the market we've
Speaker 4: seen today you've seen a sell off of two to
Speaker 4: three trillion dollars. Risk is off today. Before today you
Speaker 4: had a little bit more risk on. You look at
Speaker 4: the volatility index, which is a VIX. Historically it's average twenty.
Speaker 4: Now you're at twenty five or so. If you look
Speaker 4: at the options on VIX fifty, which gets to the
Speaker 4: high end of risk, we see more activity in those
Speaker 4: options in what we've seen in quite some time. So
Speaker 4: you now are in a relatively complex environment with interdependency,
Speaker 4: having to do with the supply chain for all the
Speaker 4: goods and all the products that we consume.
Speaker 1: We're gonna have to be able to manage through that.
Speaker 2: Bobby mentioned that this is going to cause inflation, and
Speaker 2: it's also going to cause some sort of deceleration and growth.
Speaker 2: People argue that tariffs in the long run are disinflationary.
Speaker 2: It's a one time price shock and then it gets
Speaker 2: absorbed and it's sort of part of the mess to
Speaker 2: get to a final goal of bringing more domestic production,
Speaker 2: reviving domestic production. What's your outlook. Do you think that
Speaker 2: it's going to look a bit different than.
Speaker 3: That, Well, a little bit technical for the moment at least,
Speaker 3: you're right, it's a one time supply shock, so that
Speaker 3: increases costs, and then it can level off. So the
Speaker 3: rate of inflation may not have gone up, but costs
Speaker 3: will be higher to consumers, to our producers, the producers
Speaker 3: who compete with imported goods can now raise their prices,
Speaker 3: and I think in terms of the long run for US,
Speaker 3: I think it means less productivity because the whole theory
Speaker 3: of trade is comparative advantage, so that every country gets
Speaker 3: the benefit of getting the most it possibly can for
Speaker 3: that which it is best suited to produce, and now
Speaker 3: we're interfering.
Speaker 1: With that process.
Speaker 3: It will cost us in terms of productivity and growth.
Speaker 3: I think I think this is about ideology and the desiions.
Speaker 3: I think you're it's about ideology and I think of
Speaker 3: not factor analysis grounded.
Speaker 2: It raises this question about a time when heading into
Speaker 2: this year, companies, we're talking about incredible dynamism, incredible expansionism,
Speaker 2: the idea of American exceptionalism. You're going to see a
Speaker 2: boom in deal making. Ray, do you think that that's
Speaker 2: just on hold, that that can come back, or do
Speaker 2: you think that people are rethinking that in corporate executive offices.
Speaker 4: Well, let's be clear about productivity and how does it
Speaker 4: we transition. In order to rebuild the industrial infrastructure of
Speaker 4: this country, it will take five to ten years. So
Speaker 4: while we think about being able to remove ourselves from
Speaker 4: that supply chain dynamic, the reality is it will take
Speaker 4: a while before we do that. Having said that, is
Speaker 4: I think about some of the tailwinds in this environment.
Speaker 4: You have I don't know ten trillion dollars sitting on
Speaker 4: the sideline, seven and a half trillion on corporate balance
Speaker 4: sheets two and a half trillion. With the asset managers,
Speaker 4: you have fourteen trillion dollars or so of debt available
Speaker 4: to trillion and with the asset managers twelve trillion traditional banks.
Speaker 4: Will we need to somehow deploy that capital to continue
Speaker 4: to grow the entries?
Speaker 1: Yes, we will.
Speaker 4: So I have, on the one hand, a lot of
Speaker 4: capital that is pent up. On the other hand, notwithstanding
Speaker 4: the sell off that we're seeing in the market today
Speaker 4: which brings it back down to still it is a
Speaker 4: pretty historical high. We're trading at twenty semi times next
Speaker 4: year's earning forward earnings. So I look at the dynamics
Speaker 4: of the resources that we have and how we deploy
Speaker 4: those resources, and the pent up demand for growth.
Speaker 1: So we will pause for a while as we.
Speaker 4: Understand and interpret the implications of the tariff dynamics, and
Speaker 4: once we get to a new normal, then at some
Speaker 4: point we will re engage. Will it be at the
Speaker 4: same levels that we've engaged re engaged historically unclear?
Speaker 2: Yeah, But do you think that we're going to have
Speaker 2: that boom and m and a, that boom and deals
Speaker 2: that everyone was expecting that's been propelling financial stocks higher.
Speaker 4: Well, we had the prospect of that, didn't We When
Speaker 4: we came in, we thought that there was going to
Speaker 4: be because of the factors of the availability of capital
Speaker 4: where the market was going. And we also thought there's
Speaker 4: going to be a relaxation in some of the regulatory
Speaker 4: environments having to do with what took place in the
Speaker 4: many environment last year, where regulators came in and upset
Speaker 4: a few of those transactions, said note or a few
Speaker 4: implications which are pretty severe on a few of those
Speaker 4: companies that were not able to e merge, and given
Speaker 4: the pent up demand and demand for growth for these companies,
Speaker 4: and so I think you will see some once this
Speaker 4: the first move in the tariff environment, once that move
Speaker 4: gets digested, the implications of which are still going to
Speaker 4: be long term is Bob reference.
Speaker 2: Well, and Bob, something that you talked about is that
Speaker 2: one of the foundations to the business climate in the
Speaker 2: United States has been some level of predictability. Is what
Speaker 2: some level of predictability?
Speaker 3: Oh boy, Yeah. And I think what we're doing absolutely is.
Speaker 3: And I think that that goes even beyond that. The
Speaker 3: rule of law underlies our economy, and I think we're
Speaker 3: and that gives you a certainty and predictability, and I
Speaker 3: think a lot of what's going on is adversely affecting confidence.
Speaker 3: It is now, and I think we'll more so in
Speaker 3: the future. Confidence in the rule of law. This whole
Speaker 3: discussion about retribution and the use of the law enforcement
Speaker 3: agency in the United States to attack our components or
Speaker 3: opponents throughout the administrations is a good example.
Speaker 1: I think, just as I said.
Speaker 3: A moment ago, I think the violation of our treaty
Speaker 3: obligations to Mexico and to Canada.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think that.
Speaker 3: I think predictability and confidence are essential and undermined underlie
Speaker 3: rather our economy. And I think I think of another
Speaker 3: good example, if I may, if something I think is
Speaker 3: doing tremendous damage, which is Doge. I've spent my entire
Speaker 3: career focused on fiscal discipline. We bounced the budget in
Speaker 3: nineteen ninety eight, first time in thirty years. I think
Speaker 3: we knew what the heck we were doing. I don't
Speaker 3: think these people the foggiest notion what they're doing. And
Speaker 3: I think DOSE is doing tremendous damage to government and
Speaker 3: to the recipients of government services and government activities. Now,
Speaker 3: are there excess expended? Are there inefficiencies and is there
Speaker 3: excess regulation, Yes, but you approach it with the cost
Speaker 3: of a rational cost benefit analysis, not a burn and
Speaker 3: the burning down of what exists, and then the thought
Speaker 3: that you rebuild it. And I think, I think we
Speaker 3: really are doing tremendous damage to government and to our economy.
Speaker 2: Right, you're nodding, do you want to add.
Speaker 1: In a little?
Speaker 4: The answer is the response is, as you think about
Speaker 4: the world geoeconomically and geopolitically, the anchor, the sacro sa
Speaker 4: anchor that the US has is a rule of law.
Speaker 4: It has never been a factor in any conversations that
Speaker 4: we've had up.
Speaker 1: To this point.
Speaker 2: Is it a factor now?
Speaker 1: It is.
Speaker 4: It is moving into the conversation in the ways that
Speaker 4: we haven't we haven't visited historically. So we need to
Speaker 4: be very mindful of conversations that today. It is not
Speaker 4: central to the conversations, but it has now become part
Speaker 4: of the conversation where historically it hasn't been.
Speaker 2: One thing that some people would argue, the Trump administration
Speaker 2: argues is that this is an effort to rearrange a
Speaker 2: system that has been structurally disadvantaging the United States, especially
Speaker 2: when it comes to China. And they make the argument
Speaker 2: that you need to play tough and do different things
Speaker 2: to try to shake up the status quo. Are companies
Speaker 2: still talking like that? Do they expect this to just
Speaker 2: be a negotiation that they're to raise point Bob that
Speaker 2: there will be a new normal that will emerge and
Speaker 2: that the second half of this year we'll have a
Speaker 2: more stable kind of foundation that's more visible for corporations.
Speaker 3: What kind of a new normal do you want to have, Lisa,
Speaker 3: I think that the normal.
Speaker 1: No, I'm sure.
Speaker 3: I think there's a new normal of irrationality, and I
Speaker 3: don't think that's going to be helpful to our economy.
Speaker 3: I think our new normal to be to return to
Speaker 3: sensible cost benefit judgments about everything that we do in
Speaker 3: terms of public policy, and I don't think and I
Speaker 3: think we're doing exactly opposite right now.
Speaker 2: What we're hearing from companies Ray is that there could
Speaker 2: be some reasons behind some of the tariffs, and some
Speaker 2: investors have come out and said that tariffs are attacks,
Speaker 2: but some have said.
Speaker 1: You know, both our attacks.
Speaker 2: Some have come out and said that you know that
Speaker 2: they can manage through this. The US economy is strong
Speaker 2: and resilient and once we're past this negotiation tip for
Speaker 2: TAT they can continue with the growth plans, and they
Speaker 2: still are optimistic about the consumer. Ray have you heard
Speaker 2: anything different than that?
Speaker 4: I think there is optimism still, but optimism maybe without
Speaker 4: the same level of conviction. Right, So the the randomness
Speaker 4: that appears to be at play here is not one
Speaker 4: that gives boards. And see there's a lot of confidence.
Speaker 4: So whatever the new normal is, will they react? Is
Speaker 4: they will react whatever whenever we get there. If it's
Speaker 4: a new normal of continued unpredictability, there's quite quite certain
Speaker 4: how aggressive people are going to act.
Speaker 1: So I would.
Speaker 4: Continue to pay pay it, pay attention to the volatility index.
Speaker 4: I would continue to pay attention to the tenure treasure,
Speaker 4: which I think what the administration is currently looking.
Speaker 1: To as guidance.
Speaker 4: And see if we get to a new normal, what
Speaker 4: that new normal looks like.
Speaker 1: It's not clear yet.
Speaker 3: Fun Yeah, And if a new normal, Lisa, is new
Speaker 3: normal which the world has tariff walls, we haven't because
Speaker 3: they have to have retali We're having retaliation already. We'll
Speaker 3: continue to have retaliation. And if the new war, if
Speaker 3: the new normal is a world of tariff walls, then
Speaker 3: will all just be less productive, less efficient, and less
Speaker 3: effective as economies, and our people will as a result,
Speaker 3: do less well and they would otherwise have done.
Speaker 2: You mentioned the ten year treasure yields and Scott Bessett
Speaker 2: has made it. The treasure secretary under Donald Trump has
Speaker 2: made it very clear that the ten year treasure yield
Speaker 2: is his north star in some ways, that he wants
Speaker 2: to bring yields lower. That is a requirement to deal
Speaker 2: with the deficit that we have. Is that how companies
Speaker 2: are thinking about it as well? Is this how people?
Speaker 2: I think that actually ten year treasure yields?
Speaker 3: Now, pray Tell does he plan to do that?
Speaker 1: Seriously? Yeah, this is something I know a little bit about.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, how pray Tell does he?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 1: I'm serious.
Speaker 3: I would have gone into Act twenty six years. This
Speaker 3: is what I did for a living and I was
Speaker 3: a treasury for one of it. How does he want
Speaker 3: to bring ten year yields down?
Speaker 1: Well?
Speaker 2: He says that according to his plans that there will
Speaker 2: be greater efficiencies through doche but also through cost cuts.
Speaker 1: Those an't going to create data efficiencies.
Speaker 3: What those is going to do is tear apart our government.
Speaker 2: But that he you need.
Speaker 1: A greater efficial.
Speaker 3: In the way you do that is you look at
Speaker 3: the excesses in both regulation and government and then you're
Speaker 3: approach them with a course of reasoned course benefit.
Speaker 1: Now not slash and burn.
Speaker 2: Well, the ten your treasure yield has been down every
Speaker 2: single week, Donald Trump, the ten your treasure yield has
Speaker 2: been down every since.
Speaker 3: But there's people starting to worry about the economy.
Speaker 2: So then I would ask you ray at a certain point.
Speaker 4: No, I will.
Speaker 3: I'm now being excluded from the conversation.
Speaker 1: All right, I'll send you totally quiet.
Speaker 2: No, I actually I would love to have to further
Speaker 2: the cover.
Speaker 4: That's what I'm yeelding to the secondary and I'm looking
Speaker 4: at the chart here and unfortunately, if it happens to
Speaker 4: be right, well, no.
Speaker 2: This is this is really the key question. And actually
Speaker 2: to your point, there has been this theory that if
Speaker 2: yields go down, you end up with more economic dynamism
Speaker 2: because companies will invest more. And that has been the
Speaker 2: FED put right, this idea that if they lower rates
Speaker 2: that will encourage people to spend more. That is not
Speaker 2: what we're seeing in markets. That is the opposite. What
Speaker 2: we're seeing is yields lower risk off people scared exactly
Speaker 2: to your point and right to your point from your perspective,
Speaker 2: do companies see yields lower as a positive shift before
Speaker 2: when we were talking about the potential for rate hikes
Speaker 2: or are they growing increasingly concerned to Bob's point that
Speaker 2: this really represents a pretty massive, massive and seismic shift
Speaker 2: in the economy.
Speaker 4: Remember this is we're responding real time, right. I got
Speaker 4: a pretty low tenure, and I got a stock market
Speaker 4: to Soloft treat two to three trillion dollars today and
Speaker 4: a VIC that's gone up by twenty percent. So the
Speaker 4: data is and I got a conference call that's taking
Speaker 4: place now up north, and I got one that's going
Speaker 4: to take place to night leave. I got one that's
Speaker 4: taking place tonight that we're all going to witness. So
Speaker 4: the question is is CEOs are waiting to digest as
Speaker 4: much and boards are waiting to do just as much
Speaker 4: of this information as they can and then somehow position
Speaker 4: themselves for what the world is going to look like
Speaker 4: after the next two days or so.
Speaker 1: But it won't be just that. They have to look
Speaker 1: at the entire.
Speaker 4: Supply chain infrastructure and how it impacts what they do
Speaker 4: as will the US consumer. And if you go through
Speaker 4: and look at the implications on the large retailers out there,
Speaker 4: both electronic retailers and food retailers look at consumer staples.
Speaker 4: For some reason, consumer staples are up. I'm looking at
Speaker 4: some of the companies with which are in we interact
Speaker 4: every day, and their stock scens have been moving in
Speaker 4: the right direction. Well, right direction means the stocks are
Speaker 4: moving up. And I'm looking at this and you're looking
Speaker 4: at what you're looking at the vics here.
Speaker 2: It's easier sometimes to talk about what the market's.
Speaker 1: Doing, bought working here. So it's something that we suggest
Speaker 1: you put a slide up.
Speaker 2: You can just keep talking on this, Bob, I want
Speaker 2: to come back to you about this idea.
Speaker 1: So you're excluding me.
Speaker 3: You want to come back to me, I may not,
Speaker 3: I may not engage.
Speaker 2: I think you'll engage a little bit. You're talking about
Speaker 2: how you have quite a bit of experience as being
Speaker 2: the Treasury secretary.
Speaker 1: Of experience, but good idea.
Speaker 2: And you said, how is he going to bring down
Speaker 2: ten year treasure yields?
Speaker 1: And right now we see them dropping.
Speaker 3: The best way to bring down treasuries is to have
Speaker 3: a sound economy and then have, in response to that,
Speaker 3: have sound monetary policy, and then have treasury yiels adjust accordingly.
Speaker 3: You don't want to have eels go down because people
Speaker 3: are concerned that we're going to have a weak economy
Speaker 3: or that we may run into growth problems.
Speaker 2: It raises this question, even if these teriffs come off,
Speaker 2: even if they rolled back.
Speaker 1: If what rolls back the terriffs, Oh, I'm sorry.
Speaker 2: If they are being used as a cudgel of sorts,
Speaker 2: how long can this uncertainty remain before just the idea
Speaker 2: of having uncertainty is really pernicious for growth.
Speaker 3: Cain famously said that confidence underlies economic activity, and confidence
Speaker 3: is predictability. And I think that the actions we're taking,
Speaker 3: the tariffs, the immigration actions that we're taking, we're doing
Speaker 3: with dough which, as I said, I think doing tremendous
Speaker 3: damage to government and ineffectively addressing what is a real
Speaker 3: problem with your inefficiencies and excess regulation. I think all
Speaker 3: of that have not only substant effects, but adverse effects
Speaker 3: on confidence and unpredictability. And I think all this talk
Speaker 3: about retribution, of which there's been a lot of talk,
Speaker 3: I think feeds that that lack of confidence and unpredictability.
Speaker 2: Right from your perspective, how long can this go on
Speaker 2: before companies that are delaying some of their investment plans
Speaker 2: just take them off the table, you know.
Speaker 1: I think it's early days again.
Speaker 4: I think you're in the early innings of this tariff diplomacy,
Speaker 4: and companies are pretty wise and thoughtful about how they engage.
Speaker 4: This still remains the largest, used to be faster grow
Speaker 4: an economy that exists on the planet. So there's still
Speaker 4: confidence in what's taking place in the uas US notwithstanding
Speaker 4: the lack of predictability. A lot of reserves, a lot
Speaker 4: of capital reserves, a lot of pent up capital that
Speaker 4: needs to be allocated. So I don't think there's going
Speaker 4: to be a rush to judgment. Having said that, the
Speaker 4: more the actions are unpredictable, then that goes to the
Speaker 4: level of confidence that exist with senior managers and boards.
Speaker 4: They will wait, they will wait out, wait this out
Speaker 4: to see what the implications are in the house of
Speaker 4: the Earth, the implications, and then take a decision on
Speaker 4: how they're going to move forward.
Speaker 2: Is the United States still the best place in the
Speaker 2: world to invest?
Speaker 1: Ah?
Speaker 3: I would rather that's a good question, Lisa. I would
Speaker 3: rather invest here than any other economy. But of course
Speaker 3: that a little bit reflects on what's going elsewhere China, Europe, etc.
Speaker 3: I mean, those are all places with tons of problems.
Speaker 3: But having said that, we also I think it's the
Speaker 3: greatest uncertainty. Having said that, think it's the greatest uncertainty
Speaker 3: in the twenty six years that I've been involved, or
Speaker 3: rather sixty years roughly that I've been involved in decision
Speaker 3: making it one sort or another respective markets and economies,
Speaker 3: and I think those risks have been substantially increased, as
Speaker 3: we discussed briefly, by the action of the administration or
Speaker 3: the perspective actions of administration, and then one other things,
Speaker 3: if I made Lisa, I think we have an unsustainable
Speaker 3: fiscal trajectory, and I think that as and there that
Speaker 3: is what the administration says. The problem is, I don't
Speaker 3: think they go at the right way. I think you
Speaker 3: can be rational about trying to save some money, and
Speaker 3: I think we can save some but I think it's
Speaker 3: a practical matter that is a very limited an opportunity,
Speaker 3: but a very limited opportunity, and fundamentally we need more revenues.
Speaker 3: And if you look to tar and tarifs for revenues,
Speaker 3: You'll get more revenues, but you ms be adversely affecting growth.
Speaker 1: And the offset of.
Speaker 3: That is probably and I've had this model for me.
Speaker 3: Actually the offset of that is a very small, if any,
Speaker 3: net increase in revenues.
Speaker 1: But the.
Speaker 3: Answer lies prodominantly on the revenue side.
Speaker 2: Right your thought about what the United's States is still
Speaker 2: the place that everybody wants to invest, you know.
Speaker 4: Without reservation longer term. Yes, I look at the advantags
Speaker 4: that have been made in technology Max seven been examples.
Speaker 4: If I look at all the advantages that we're making
Speaker 4: across the landscape, notwithstanding our dependence on supply chain in
Speaker 4: many ways, this still is the most attractive, the greatest
Speaker 4: country that exists.
Speaker 2: What about next six months.
Speaker 4: We're going to go through some challenges over the next
Speaker 4: six months, We'll be challenged.
Speaker 1: Will we get through them? The answer is yes, presumably. Now.
Speaker 4: The challenge I have is that it's a historical mindset.
Speaker 4: We've not seen factors come in to play historically the
Speaker 4: way we see today. And so and I say that
Speaker 4: with a bitter conviction, not necessarily the hope, but a
Speaker 4: bitter conviction. I hope will always be there, but conviction
Speaker 4: that we'll get through this.