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Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by FanDuel. Football season is here,

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am joined as I am every single show by

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Speaker 1: my bff, my companion Mike and padre my co host

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter Professional better listen. I'm not gonna lie to you.

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Speaker 1: Before we started recording today, I was a little nervous.

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Speaker 1: It's just a different show. It's a it's a different show.

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Speaker 1: When you are talking about the actual Week one games

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Speaker 1: to bet on, the stakes are higher, they just are.

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Speaker 1: Our show is getting bigger, Chad, I mean, it's good

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Speaker 1: to be back. I mean, it's what the the true

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Speaker 1: first day of school. I guess you could say, it's

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Speaker 1: like we're all here ready to go. It's raining the

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Speaker 1: next two days in the Northeast. That kind of starts

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Speaker 1: feeling like fall a little bit. Should we do some housekeeping,

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Speaker 1: some bona fides? Just because how many new listeners are

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Speaker 1: we gonna have Week one? Everyone's back like we got

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Speaker 1: our true loyal fans who are the smart ones. They

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Speaker 1: got all the good numbers that we gave out all summer.

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Speaker 1: Now the new guys are showing up. The guys who

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Speaker 1: you know, they don't love us, They just love our

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Speaker 1: picks because they love winning money. They're back. Also, we

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Speaker 1: probably should tell everyone our new show dates, right, Chad,

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Speaker 1: No more Tuesday Thursdays. A lot of people saying we're

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Speaker 1: ruining their routine. It's part of the business. People adjust

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Speaker 1: Wednesday's Fridays. It's not that bad. Listen. The show will

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Speaker 1: come out around eleven pm on Tuesday night and eleven

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Speaker 1: pm on Thursday night. A lot of behind the scenes

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Speaker 1: master nation that will bore people about why that has

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Speaker 1: to happen, But look, that's part of the deal. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna roll with it. I was thinking of myself. It

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Speaker 1: feels like the first day of school when I was

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Speaker 1: doing my ten minute peloton full body stretch this morning.

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Speaker 1: You're just an old man. As far as bona fides, listen.

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Speaker 1: For those who don't know, I'll start with myself. I

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Speaker 1: am the chief Content Officer of the Action Network. The

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Speaker 1: Action Network covers everything you need in sports betting in

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Speaker 1: our app, on our website, on our social handles. We

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Speaker 1: are producing hundreds of pieces of content a week focused

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Speaker 1: on sports betting, the sports betting experience. Download the app

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Speaker 1: track your picks. We've tracked north of two hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty five million picks in our app. It is a

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Speaker 1: vital tool for anybody who was fresh to the gambling experience.

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Speaker 1: I'm kind of a legend in the sports betting media space.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how much I need to go into

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Speaker 1: my background. Let's just say I invented it and I've

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Speaker 1: also written seven books. Sign and go ahead. Chad Millman

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Speaker 1: is proud of himself. This will be my tent season

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Speaker 1: being an actual professional better working for a betting syndicate.

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Speaker 1: I joined Chad. This will be our fourth season again.

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Speaker 1: I didn't want to be on the show, honestly. When

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Speaker 1: I reached out the chat, I simply said to him,

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Speaker 1: can I just send you picks and you can use them.

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Speaker 1: Just you gotta take more underdogs and they're gotta be

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Speaker 1: smart underdogs. And Chad was like, talk to me on

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Speaker 1: the phone. We talked. Next thing, you know, I'm coming

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Speaker 1: on this show fifteen minutes a week for the first year.

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Speaker 1: I came on last year when I Matt Mitchell will

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Speaker 1: blur my face because again, I didn't really want to

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Speaker 1: be on the show, but it's all worked out, like

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Speaker 1: this is your four for me and Chad. The show

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Speaker 1: has grown, it's definitely getting it's definitely different, where like,

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Speaker 1: you know, we got to target on our back. I

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Speaker 1: definitely feel that for sure, and it's like, you know,

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Speaker 1: I don't take it lightly. So this season there's gonna

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Speaker 1: highs and lows. Just understand, I'm working my ass off

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Speaker 1: and Chad is obviously trying his best. It's like, we

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Speaker 1: get it. We want to win too. The goal here

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Speaker 1: is to make you take ugly dogs. I feel like

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Speaker 1: that's what me and Chad are really coming known for.

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Speaker 1: It's been very profitable taking underdogs. So yeah, if you're

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Speaker 1: new to the show, it's gonna feel weird what we do,

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Speaker 1: but it will make sense that the season goes along.

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Speaker 1: As you'll see, there's just these spots in these moments

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Speaker 1: of these underdogs that are just crazy undervalued. So thanks

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Speaker 1: for taking a chance on us, and hopefully, like some

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Speaker 1: of these ugly picks, we're literally about to give in

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Speaker 1: the next two minutes. Here's how the show breaks down

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Speaker 1: on Tuesdays, we go through the entire NFL slate. Simon

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Speaker 1: and I will talk about our early leans. We will

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Speaker 1: give away a Foxhole bet. That is the bet where

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Speaker 1: we are in it together. We feel like everyone is

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Speaker 1: going to be against us. But I want to be

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Speaker 1: in the foxholl with Simon. He wants to be in

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Speaker 1: the foxhow with me. Simon will give his Simon says

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Speaker 1: bet that means bet it right away. I will give

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Speaker 1: him my executive decision bet because I am an executive

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Speaker 1: Bet it right away. You can follow all of these

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Speaker 1: picks follow the Favorites podcast handle in the Action Network app.

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Speaker 1: Producer Matt Mitchell will be loading these into the app

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Speaker 1: every single week um and then on Thursdays we narrow

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Speaker 1: down the slate. We talk about the games that we

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Speaker 1: loved to try to come up with a five favorite

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Speaker 1: that we will enter into a contest in which Simon

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Speaker 1: and I are going to win boatloads of money. Let's

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Speaker 1: get to a brother No more dilly dally, you talk

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Speaker 1: about ugly dogs. Right Thursday Night Football kicking off the

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Speaker 1: season super Bowl Champs against the consensus Super Bowl favorites.

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Speaker 1: The Rams are two and a half point home underdogs

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Speaker 1: higher percentage of bets about the bets and about seventy

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Speaker 1: of the money coming in on the Buffalo Bills Matt

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Speaker 1: Mitchell's Bills mafia. This is excruciating for him. What do

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Speaker 1: you think right off the bat, Simon says, bet the

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Speaker 1: Rams get it right now, let's do and a half.

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Speaker 1: Simon do it? We do? What Sciences? What? Chad? A

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Speaker 1: little fun things going on Downd the scenes. Chad has

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Speaker 1: his nerds hitting me up now for pick. And they're

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Speaker 1: really cool about it, they said, because they know I

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Speaker 1: can't write, like again, I dropped out of college. Your

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Speaker 1: boy cannot right. Uh. They called me up. They'll say,

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Speaker 1: can you give us one or two your best bets?

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Speaker 1: And my favorite bet when I gave right away was

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Speaker 1: the Rams plus two and a half classic overvalue team

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Speaker 1: and a Bills team that's the all hyped team, the

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Speaker 1: super Bowl favorite. Everyone's talking about them. We're getting the

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Speaker 1: defending Super Bowl champion on a discount and in the

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Speaker 1: rare position of I don't think people understand what happened

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Speaker 1: last year with this Bills team, right Everyone just looks

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Speaker 1: at what they did last year, looks at their record

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Speaker 1: without thinking themselves, how did they get to that record,

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Speaker 1: and if you look at their division, they went five

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Speaker 1: and one. That's great outside their division, six and five,

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Speaker 1: That's that's what you have to look at, say what

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Speaker 1: happened outside of the division. Where do they get their wins?

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Speaker 1: Where they get their losses? This is their wins outside

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Speaker 1: their division. Last year they won against Washington, they went

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Speaker 1: against Houston, beat the Chiefs. That's when I got sucked in.

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Speaker 1: Then they beat New Orleans Carolina in Atlanta. That that

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Speaker 1: was are outside of their visions wins. They went one

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Speaker 1: in three against the a FC South. Last year the

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Speaker 1: Bills outside of their division, their only win was against Houston,

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Speaker 1: so they lost to the Jaguars, lost of the Colts,

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Speaker 1: and lost the Tennessee. This is just a classic overvalue

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Speaker 1: Bills team where who can't deny Josh Allen's probably the

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Speaker 1: best quarterback in football right now. It's a team game.

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Speaker 1: So we're getting the all hype team and Bills that

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Speaker 1: a games should be a pick. It's two and a half.

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Speaker 1: They're out of their division, they're playing at a conference

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Speaker 1: against the defending Super Bowl champions against McVeigh who's five

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Speaker 1: and oh at home. I'm not even at home opening night,

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Speaker 1: uh their first game. He's five and out his career.

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Speaker 1: McVeigh has never lost the defending Super Bowl champion at home.

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Speaker 1: In this position of being a underdog, they cover at

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Speaker 1: a six percent clip. So again, there's just all these

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Speaker 1: little trends pointing to it, and Chad knows we love

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Speaker 1: home dogs. So it's like to me, I was hoping

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Speaker 1: to get to the three, hoping the public keep betting up.

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Speaker 1: The books are too smart. They just kept it two

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Speaker 1: and a half. Just take the two and a half

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Speaker 1: for my Simon says, but so listen, I love it, um.

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Speaker 1: While you were talking literally in the first thirty seconds,

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Speaker 1: I want to explain something. I went to the Action app,

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Speaker 1: clicked on the game, I pressed on the RAMS plus

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Speaker 1: two and a half, and then I used this new

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Speaker 1: technology we have that we integrate with fan Duel, who

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Speaker 1: is our sponsor. This is not sort of shameless. This

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Speaker 1: is a cool new tech that we're doing with them.

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Speaker 1: I clicked on it in the app for Action. It

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Speaker 1: took me to fan Duel. I made the bet in

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Speaker 1: about fifteen seconds. It was miraculous. And then I went

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Speaker 1: and tracted in the Action Network app. So everybody should

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Speaker 1: be getting an alert that I just made a pet

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Speaker 1: on the Rams plus two and a half. This whole

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Speaker 1: slate is full of home dogs and it's gonna make

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Speaker 1: us sick, and we're gonna have to bet every single

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Speaker 1: one of them. You can't, you can't not make these bets.

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Speaker 1: You can't sort of randomly choose. You gotta bet them

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Speaker 1: all if you want to take advantage of the full opportunity,

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Speaker 1: which brings me to the next game. Lions plus four

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Speaker 1: against the Philadelphia Eaggles. The lines have been getting a

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Speaker 1: lot of love, right You want to bet over six

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Speaker 1: and a half in the Lions, you gotta pay. That

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Speaker 1: is a weird world. We're paying minus to bet on

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Speaker 1: the Lions over. We love their offensive line. Jared Goff

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Speaker 1: is competent. We love their offensive weapons at skill positions

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Speaker 1: outside of golf. I am in love with Dan Campbell.

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Speaker 1: So this team is Detroit. We're gonna kick you in

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Speaker 1: the teeth and when you punch this, we're gonna smile

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Speaker 1: at you. And when you knock us down, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: get up. And on the way up, we're gonna buy

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Speaker 1: a knee cap off. All right, We're gonna take your

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Speaker 1: other knee cap before long, We're there going to be

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Speaker 1: the last one standing. A lot of hype on this team,

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Speaker 1: but they covered last year at an enormous rate for

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Speaker 1: a team that lost as often as they did. His

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Speaker 1: play calling is uncanny home dog money line taste, but

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Speaker 1: definitely lines plus four executive decision. How already the choice

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Speaker 1: between the unthinkable and the impossible exect decision. We've been

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Speaker 1: tagging this game since May, like when did a week

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Speaker 1: one lines come out? We've been saying Lions, Lions, Lions,

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Speaker 1: And this is what's interesting. As much as we've been

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Speaker 1: talking about and you and I were so immersed in

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Speaker 1: this stuff, we keep thinking everyone loves the Lions. Money wise,

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Speaker 1: the bets are on the Lions, but ticket wise the

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Speaker 1: bets are on the Eagles, So huge discrepancy. You've got

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Speaker 1: a wise guy trend here. Yeah, it's a little bit

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Speaker 1: of wise guy money movement. Right, I'm going at home

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Speaker 1: dog Eagles. We already talked about there. I mean we

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Speaker 1: just talked about the Bills being the hype team. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there is there a more hyped up team right now

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Speaker 1: than the Eagles than not of movement. Their line has

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Speaker 1: had this just last month. Uh, it's been been heavy,

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Speaker 1: and we talked about if you already missed the bets

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Speaker 1: on the Eagles that we were given out. We thought,

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Speaker 1: this is a nice time. You just wait and let

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Speaker 1: them maybe lose this game or lose the next game,

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Speaker 1: go one on one to start the season or oh

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Speaker 1: and two, and then you get good value on this

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Speaker 1: Egos team, where I do think this Egos team is

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Speaker 1: crazy talented. The early weeks here, these teams are not formed.

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Speaker 1: It's just chaos, and that's what me and Chad we're

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Speaker 1: kind of gonna get betting on a lot of chaos

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Speaker 1: early on here. And these are, like Chad just talked about,

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Speaker 1: evening match teams where I think they're both ascending in

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Speaker 1: the right direction. No doubt the Eagles have more talent

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Speaker 1: across the board. But the strength of this Detroit team

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Speaker 1: we already talked about. It's their offensive line. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: Jared golf five and oh a t s career. Uh

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Speaker 1: got lucky last year, right, Some people got a little

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Speaker 1: unlucky if they got the seven and a half not

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Speaker 1: the eight and a half because the number landed on

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Speaker 1: eight again gets the forty nine in week one. So

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Speaker 1: for me, I trust Golf Trust this offense and just

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Speaker 1: the fact that this number is ballooned up. It should

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Speaker 1: just be three, like this is a field goal game.

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Speaker 1: The Egos are clearly the better team, but more than

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Speaker 1: three points, that's that's a bit rich. So I like

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Speaker 1: what Chad saying, take the four, you can still get it.

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Speaker 1: Most people have to take a three and a half,

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Speaker 1: still love the three and a half, So on with

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Speaker 1: I'd take that three and a half Falcons plus five

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Speaker 1: at home against the Saints. I don't get this. Saints love.

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Speaker 1: What's happening right now? People are starting to feel like

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Speaker 1: maybe they have a better roster than the box. I

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Speaker 1: read that this morning. I cannot invest in Jamis. We

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Speaker 1: were in Atlanta Falcons podcast last year. The number has

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Speaker 1: moved up from three and a half to five and

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Speaker 1: a half. Of the money seventy of the bets on

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Speaker 1: the Saints. Why wouldn't we outo bet the Falcons here?

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Speaker 1: I was about to say, chat, what are you doing

262
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Speaker 1: just going through our favorite bets? But then I realized,

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Speaker 1: I think every game we have favorite bets because we've

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Speaker 1: just been talking about these games for three months. Atlanta,

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Speaker 1: it's just an overlooked team, Like the number, the number screams,

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Speaker 1: please anyone put money on me, like the books need.

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Speaker 1: People are coming in Atlanta. But it was funny that

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Speaker 1: as soon as it touched six, they took a lot

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Speaker 1: of money and moved it right back to five and

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Speaker 1: a half, which means they know the pros are just

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Speaker 1: waiting on that six. Again. It's a key number. Five

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Speaker 1: is kind of five and a half is kind of

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Speaker 1: a dead number. So to me, if you're like me

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Speaker 1: and Chad and you liked this Atlanta game, you don't

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Speaker 1: need to wait for the six. I don't think it's

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Speaker 1: gonna come. I think you're fine taking the five and

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Speaker 1: a half if you just want to get the bet

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Speaker 1: in and get it locked up. But simple strategy here

279
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Speaker 1: of divisional matchup, rookie head coach on the road with

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Speaker 1: Jamis Winston. Need I say more. It's like, you can

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Speaker 1: have all the Mariota slander you want. He has Drake London,

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Speaker 1: he's got Quitel Paterson the running back, he's got Kyle Pitts.

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Speaker 1: They have all these different weapons on offense. And if

284
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Speaker 1: you look at his grade inside the twenties, the man's

285
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Speaker 1: are literally one of the best red zone players in

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Speaker 1: the history of football. The guy just because of the

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Speaker 1: triple threat right the run pass option with him. So

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Speaker 1: for me, I I love getting a doubted Atlanta team

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Speaker 1: here at home opening day against a rookie head coach.

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Speaker 1: UH Chad. Chad gave us out forever ago about one

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Speaker 1: of his favorite bets. I had no doubt this is

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Speaker 1: probably one of one of the bets in our contest.

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Speaker 1: UH might have to be one of our Foxhold bets.

294
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Speaker 1: But I don't know if we can do three in

295
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Speaker 1: a row of our game show bets because it's like

296
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Speaker 1: Chad's railing them off here. But I do just love

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Speaker 1: this game. I feel like this will be one of

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Speaker 1: the less bet teams. Maybe the Jets will be get

299
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Speaker 1: the least amount of money. I could see Atlanta Week

300
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Speaker 1: one and get the least amount of money. Every game

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Speaker 1: is a game that we seem to love because there

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Speaker 1: are so many dogs. That's the problem. And we can

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Speaker 1: talk about this Jets game next. Oh no, we suck again.

304
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Speaker 1: Jets plus seven against the Ravens. This is the one

305
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Speaker 1: that I know we should bet it, but I don't

306
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Speaker 1: know who's playing for the Jets. I've got a lot

307
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Speaker 1: of investment in the Ravens. I think if there's any

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Speaker 1: game we could skip, it's this one because of the

309
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Speaker 1: uncertainty for the quarterback. I'm heavily invested. I've been betting

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Speaker 1: it for months as one of Like again, one of

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Speaker 1: the readers reached out to me, can you just throw

312
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Speaker 1: two bets into the app so we can start tracking

313
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Speaker 1: NFL bets. First two bets I did Ravens minus five

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Speaker 1: and a half Houston plus eight, And it's just the

315
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Speaker 1: exact same reason here with the Ravens. It's like I

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Speaker 1: thought this line was gonna move and it has. We

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Speaker 1: just we just knew people eventually catch up to this

318
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Speaker 1: Ravens team. I still think they're being under valued. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we don't know right now. We're meant to do on

320
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Speaker 1: this show on Tuesday. By Wednesday, won't know if it's

321
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Speaker 1: gonna be Zack Wilson. If this is Zack Wilson, a

322
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Speaker 1: guy who hasn't practiced for the last month, coming in

323
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Speaker 1: cold against this Ravens team with Lamar and this defense,

324
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Speaker 1: I mean, across the board, this is gonna be everyone's

325
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Speaker 1: survivor picked. Everyone will be all in on it. So yeah,

326
00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,160
Speaker 1: that's the scary part of it. But I do bet Shalk,

327
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Speaker 1: Like there are times I'd take a position when I

328
00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:45,920
Speaker 1: think that there's a bad number. Seven is good, like

329
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Speaker 1: that is where it should be. I would take the seven,

330
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Speaker 1: and I'd be concerned if it was Flacco, just because

331
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Speaker 1: of that. You know that veteran game. We always see

332
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Speaker 1: it all the time. These veteran quarterbacks have one good

333
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Speaker 1: game and then they suck for the next five. That's

334
00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:01,200
Speaker 1: just stinks for like a flac Oh moment against his

335
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Speaker 1: former team. But I would not change my position. If

336
00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:05,879
Speaker 1: you're already been in the Ravens and his Flacco, I

337
00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:07,760
Speaker 1: would still let a ride just for me and Chad.

338
00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:09,159
Speaker 1: I don't know if this would be one of our

339
00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:11,879
Speaker 1: picks in the contest, but if it's Zack Wilson, Chad's

340
00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:13,320
Speaker 1: gonna fight me on it. But I'm gonna be trying

341
00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:15,240
Speaker 1: to get it in there because it's like, literally the

342
00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:17,960
Speaker 1: kid has not practiced for a month until this week.

343
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Speaker 1: You know, that's really hard to do. If you're Tom Brady,

344
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Speaker 1: it's hard to do. If you're Zack Wilson, it's impossible.

345
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Speaker 1: You're gonna be fighting to get the Ravens even at

346
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Speaker 1: seven into the contest. If it's Zack Wilson. If it

347
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Speaker 1: was seven, I would If it was seven a half,

348
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Speaker 1: I would not be I would not try to put

349
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Speaker 1: it down. I think this Jets team might be one

350
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:41,000
Speaker 1: of the worst teams in football. Yeah, I told you,

351
00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:42,840
Speaker 1: I'm I bet them for a worst record. Again, it's

352
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Speaker 1: just because the a f C is so brutally tough. Yeah,

353
00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:49,000
Speaker 1: the a f C is tough. And look, everyone overhyped them.

354
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Speaker 1: This was a team I bet under five and a

355
00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,879
Speaker 1: half at plus one thirty five because they won the

356
00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:57,320
Speaker 1: off season, they won the draft, and everybody bet the

357
00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,960
Speaker 1: over five and a half and it made no sense,

358
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,240
Speaker 1: but everyone bought in because it's the fucking Jets, and

359
00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:05,560
Speaker 1: it's New York and half of everybody in the media

360
00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,880
Speaker 1: is enamored with them, as if it's like an ironic

361
00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:11,880
Speaker 1: team to root for because they're so bad. I wouldn't

362
00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,800
Speaker 1: mind taking the seven if it's If it's a Zach Wilson,

363
00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:17,879
Speaker 1: that'll be an interesting conversation we have on Sunday the

364
00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:21,880
Speaker 1: Bengals defending a f C champs against the Mitch true

365
00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:28,040
Speaker 1: Bisky lead Pittsburgh Steelers. There's six and a half point favorites.

366
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,159
Speaker 1: This kind of feels right to me. Yeah, to me,

367
00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:36,640
Speaker 1: this is way too high. Just a lot of respect

368
00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:40,320
Speaker 1: to Joe what Joe did last year about realizing what's

369
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:43,520
Speaker 1: what's the Bengals makeup? They win ugly close games. Now

370
00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:45,280
Speaker 1: you could say they've changed without the same team they

371
00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:48,920
Speaker 1: were last year. But the a f C North, it's

372
00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 1: like it just never ends. It's literally a never ending

373
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,360
Speaker 1: circle of these teams just play each other tough, tight games,

374
00:18:55,680 --> 00:19:00,439
Speaker 1: defensive battles, and we're getting the benefit of no one

375
00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:02,840
Speaker 1: wants to bet Pittsburgh right when they chatted last time

376
00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:04,359
Speaker 1: we checked. I think there are plus nine hundred for

377
00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:07,160
Speaker 1: this division. They're left for dead because no one's behind

378
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,880
Speaker 1: the mixture of biscuit business and we talk all the time.

379
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,120
Speaker 1: I look at that team again. One of the worst

380
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:15,159
Speaker 1: offensive lines in football, no denying that, But at the

381
00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 1: skill positions, you can't find more talent on offense. They

382
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,840
Speaker 1: have a skill position at every position on from my

383
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:24,480
Speaker 1: receiver tight end to running back. Mitch. We've seen it.

384
00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 1: The guy can game manager game. So I was hoping

385
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:30,000
Speaker 1: this wasn't at the seven, right. That's me being greedy

386
00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:32,560
Speaker 1: but happy to take the value six and a half.

387
00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 1: I had this number three and a half. It's no

388
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,800
Speaker 1: disrespect to Joe. I think this since an a team.

389
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:40,160
Speaker 1: We I gave him out as a wild card team.

390
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,440
Speaker 1: I do think they're gonna be good this year. This

391
00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:44,560
Speaker 1: is a trap, like we're gonna talk about a round

392
00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 1: robin we do on Thursday. How do you not take

393
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,240
Speaker 1: the money along in this Pittsburgh team a divisional game?

394
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:54,240
Speaker 1: The team that lost in the super Bowl historically is

395
00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:57,760
Speaker 1: terrible A t s uh. It's it's just a bad

396
00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:00,080
Speaker 1: spot for this Bangles team to be in and and

397
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:02,080
Speaker 1: the best parties that they're at home, which to me,

398
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,440
Speaker 1: that's that's good for us. We want this Pittsburgh team

399
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:06,680
Speaker 1: on the road because that's what you like with the defense,

400
00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:08,800
Speaker 1: that gets them fired up, being the bad boys in

401
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,840
Speaker 1: that stadium. So yeah, it's yeah, and there's so many

402
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:14,920
Speaker 1: other dogs we love. But if this makes into our contest,

403
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 1: you never know. But to me, this is an auto play.

404
00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 1: You just play a divisional foe like this for a

405
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,639
Speaker 1: final five. It'll be hard. I mean, I already know

406
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 1: we love the Lions and the Falcons at four and

407
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 1: five and a half and we're four games into this, right,

408
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 1: But you make some good points about Pittsburgh division foe Like,

409
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:36,719
Speaker 1: when do these games ever land in the final score

410
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 1: at more than three? That tends to be the case.

411
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,120
Speaker 1: So six and a half I think is a little

412
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 1: bit over inflation in the Bengals. Mike Tomlin. By the way,

413
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:51,119
Speaker 1: rah Ras spot what ra ra? Mike Tomlin spot we

414
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 1: win the game? Were bodies right here today today we

415
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 1: almost went through an entire game without mentioning. Mike Tomlin

416
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:06,880
Speaker 1: in an Underdog on the road Mike Tomlin, spot man.

417
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,159
Speaker 1: We make the simple complex in this business, don't we

418
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,359
Speaker 1: All of a sudden. If this isn't the first game

419
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,360
Speaker 1: that we put in our contest, I think we're crazy.

420
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:16,479
Speaker 1: And we're going to hear from people saying the Bengals

421
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:19,440
Speaker 1: swept them last year and they dominated Pittsburgh and both matches.

422
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 1: That is a fair argument, but again, it's a new year.

423
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 1: It's like you have to adjust this year and this

424
00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:28,240
Speaker 1: is just even even if they dominated last year, this

425
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 1: is just a bad spot for this Bangals team. Not

426
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,639
Speaker 1: so much. I think Pittsburgh approved that much. It's just

427
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,200
Speaker 1: a lot more goes into it than simply on piece

428
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,679
Speaker 1: of paper what these teams do against each other. We

429
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:42,439
Speaker 1: shouldn't note that last year we got off to a

430
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 1: not great start, and I think we were we were

431
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 1: in our head, we weren't playing to our principles, which

432
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 1: as you've noted, we like to play home dogs, we

433
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:56,360
Speaker 1: like to play ugly dogs, we like to play the value.

434
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 1: And so I think we just got to remind ourselves

435
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:04,159
Speaker 1: every single day, every single show, every single week, like

436
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,919
Speaker 1: stick with our guns, don't get caught up in the hype,

437
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 1: don't listen to the voices, go with what we know

438
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,640
Speaker 1: and that then the Briggs, can you tell me how

439
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:17,880
Speaker 1: often are pro actually wins any of these contests? Never?

440
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:19,640
Speaker 1: It's just you need a lot of luck. But I'm

441
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 1: with you, like if we if if those glory let

442
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 1: there's those down days, like Chad saying I'm gonna need

443
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 1: chry to smack me around a little bit and be like, no,

444
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,919
Speaker 1: stick stick to what it gets us to the that

445
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:32,600
Speaker 1: what we need to do is like that dogs at home,

446
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:34,439
Speaker 1: That's kind of what we gotta stick to because a

447
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 1: lot of times we get scared because we were like

448
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 1: losing on some of them. Just gotta stick stick with it.

449
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:41,880
Speaker 1: Dolphins have moved up from two and a half point

450
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 1: favorites at home against the Patriots to three and a

451
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 1: half seventy of the money of the bets. This is

452
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 1: a pass for me. At three and a half, I

453
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,879
Speaker 1: could see how you'd say, all right, take the Patriots.

454
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,919
Speaker 1: Take the hook at plus three and a half. At

455
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,439
Speaker 1: two and a half, I kind of love the Dolphins.

456
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 1: The money has moved too much for me. Yeah, it sucks.

457
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,200
Speaker 1: I love the Dolphins. Like this was a no brainer.

458
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 1: Been betting it all summer two two and a half,

459
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 1: even bet it again at three because I was like, forget,

460
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,359
Speaker 1: that's still a good number. Now you have to bet.

461
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:15,120
Speaker 1: You have to bet the Patriots of three and a half.

462
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 1: It's like, how have we not We've all seen the data.

463
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 1: These rookie head coaches are just not good week one.

464
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 1: I think again it's our guy Evan put out that

465
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 1: arc collaborate Abrahams three and eighteen or three nineteen since

466
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 1: and week one straight up, it's just it's not good.

467
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,920
Speaker 1: So scared of the only only thing pausing to me

468
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 1: is honestly that the coaching like Bill Belichick against a

469
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 1: rookie head coach week one scary. But Miami talent wise

470
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 1: is so far above better than this Patriots team, and

471
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 1: everything Miami does well. Speed is the biggest weakness of

472
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,640
Speaker 1: this new England team. Like people are gonna be blown

473
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 1: away how fast this Miami team is. It's like it's

474
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 1: gonna to be very interesting to see how this new

475
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 1: England team tries to defend it as they are bad

476
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 1: on defense now, Like people don't realize that that's one

477
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 1: of their bigger weaknesses now is their defense. So again,

478
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,160
Speaker 1: their fronts good, but their back end is not that good.

479
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 1: So I love Miami, but like Chad said, we're gonna

480
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 1: pass on this one. This next game, Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor

481
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:19,919
Speaker 1: Lawrence visiting the Washington Commanders. This game has dropped. The

482
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:23,199
Speaker 1: Jags opened as four point dogs, they're now two and

483
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 1: a half. Anyone who is new to the podcast should

484
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 1: know Simon and I have an irrational love for the

485
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 1: Jaguars right now. My theory is that Doug Peterson was

486
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 1: the genius on that Eagles team, and he's the one

487
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 1: who coached Nick Foles to greatness, not Frank Reich who's

488
00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 1: gotten a lot of the credit as the offensive coordinator

489
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 1: on that Eagles team that won the Super Bowl. Doug

490
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 1: Peterson would with Trevor Lawrence who could potentially be a

491
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 1: generational talent, is primed for a massive leap, not dissimilar

492
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 1: than what Joe Burrow did last year. Um, it happens.

493
00:24:57,160 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 1: It happens all the time. I got Trevor Lawrence plus

494
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 1: at seventy one to lead the league in passing touchdowns.

495
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 1: We both like the Jags as long as shots to

496
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 1: win their division, the a f C South. Everything is

497
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:23,199
Speaker 1: on the Jags right now. That's and money. So do

498
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,679
Speaker 1: you still like it at two and a half? And like,

499
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:27,680
Speaker 1: that's what sucks about doing the show this week one.

500
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 1: It's like some of these numbers have just moved too much. Yes,

501
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 1: we are all in on the Jaguars. They should lose

502
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 1: this game. Like the Washington Commanders are pretty much the

503
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 1: same exact team as the Jaguars are for the most part, honestly,

504
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 1: Like you just look it on paper. Again, I want

505
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 1: I love the shot on Carson Wentz because it's fun,

506
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 1: He's not that terrible, and they have pretty pretty good

507
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:51,719
Speaker 1: weapons on this Washington team. So yeah, at four points,

508
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 1: this was a really really good value and an easy pick.

509
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 1: Even at three points that probably would have taken the Jaguars.

510
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 1: But I have this game at and a half. Now

511
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 1: there's a lot the move is shifted to the Commanders.

512
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 1: I just won't bet it because I'm already invest in

513
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,639
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. But yeah, I'm terrified, Like it feels like

514
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:11,640
Speaker 1: we're about to have the Jaguars start. Oh one chat,

515
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 1: I'm gonna feel like an idiot. But coming into us,

516
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 1: I love this game because it was just it's just

517
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 1: too egally evenly match teams where a number should have

518
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 1: been three two and a half because again, there's no

519
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,199
Speaker 1: real home field advantage. Right for Washington, their fans they

520
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 1: hate them, like they're they really calling themselves the Commies.

521
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:29,199
Speaker 1: They just they do not like this organization. So we

522
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 1: talked about it. I don't know how many times when

523
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 1: we betting on Washington. Eventually the value is going to

524
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 1: be there and we will have to take Washington. They're

525
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 1: probably my least favorite team to bet on this season

526
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 1: until Deshaun Watson comes back. For right now, Washington, I

527
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: just I hate betting on So I'm gonna pass on

528
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 1: this all right. We're gonna have to pass on the

529
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 1: Jags as much as we love them. Now we're gonna

530
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 1: have to spend a couple of minutes talking about a team.

531
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 1: For people who don't know. Simon and I are on

532
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:02,879
Speaker 1: a show called Convince Me every Sunday at eleven a

533
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,679
Speaker 1: m Eastern. You can catch it on Twitter, on the

534
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 1: Action Network Candle. You can catch it in the Action

535
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 1: Network app. It's me, It's Simon, It's Chris Raban, It's

536
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 1: Sean Kerner, it's Darren Rivel, it's Samantha Prividi. We're all

537
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 1: talking about the games. We did a preview show last week.

538
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 1: I kind of love the Niners to represent the NFC

539
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl right now. They're sixteen to want

540
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,679
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. But I also love the

541
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 1: Bears as a hometown Chicago fan. The Bears are plus

542
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 1: seven in this spot. If not for my anti Bears

543
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 1: bias as a fan, this would be an automatic play

544
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 1: to me. And the way the percentages are shaping up,

545
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 1: the bests on the Niners sixty eight of the money

546
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,679
Speaker 1: on the Bears, So the wise guys see it that

547
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,920
Speaker 1: way too. Yeah, I bet this game like a damn coward.

548
00:27:58,000 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 1: It's one of the few games I've met like a

549
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 1: cow Uh. Took took forty nine first half, took Bears

550
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:05,679
Speaker 1: for the game. I just didn't really know what to

551
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 1: do with it. It's stinks. This line stinks. I don't

552
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,159
Speaker 1: get why I didn't stay at seven. Why is it

553
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 1: not st going up and stayed up? Who is betting

554
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 1: the Bears? Other their professionals, like other than Bears fans

555
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,479
Speaker 1: who are betting. I just don't I don't get what

556
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 1: people are seeing this. I guess because they had that

557
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 1: one end of the game, end of the preseason fields

558
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 1: through the three touchdowns. But it's like the talent level

559
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 1: on these two teams, it's not comparable, like it's it's

560
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,360
Speaker 1: really night and day. Um. The Bears did draft good though,

561
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 1: chat like you're you should be excited about this regime

562
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 1: right now because they are apparently making good draft picks.

563
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 1: They had no good pick slash. I don't think they

564
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 1: had a first round pick right, and they end up

565
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 1: getting two guys that are starting for you this year

566
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 1: on defense, which again could be scary, but they've looked

567
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 1: they've played well, uh this preseason. So to me, I

568
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 1: don't know what to really do with this Bears team

569
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 1: because I want to fade them heavily. But taking a

570
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 1: I guess you could say is the second year quarterback

571
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 1: in Trey Lance take him in his first start of

572
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 1: the year on the road. I mean, that's that's a

573
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 1: lot to ask of him. So I do think first

574
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 1: half is a smart bet. With the sport Owners team,

575
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 1: they can come out, Kyle can scheme up the first

576
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 1: thirty place for him. It's once he goes off off,

577
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 1: you know script, and he's in the second half. That's

578
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 1: him a little worried about Trey Lance. So to me,

579
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 1: if you're gonna bet this game, you can bet it

580
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 1: like I am. I'm just doing first half for Niners

581
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 1: and then I'll take the Bears for the full game,

582
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 1: just because I feel like this game is gonna land

583
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: on six. It's just the way the books have been

584
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 1: keeping it at that number. It's as if they know

585
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 1: something like this game will be closer than people think.

586
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: But we do have to play the Bears at plus seven. Yeah, yeah,

587
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 1: no doubt, but you can't. You just can't ignore it. Yeah,

588
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 1: and again it's this would be this is probably my

589
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 1: second or third smallest bet because I just don't don't

590
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 1: really like this Bears team, like we talked about it.

591
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 1: But there's gonna be a bunch of times me and

592
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 1: Ted are gonna have to bet the number. And we've

593
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 1: just seen the time and time again the Bears at home,

594
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 1: because you when you have to take this team like

595
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 1: they're a bad team, where they're at home, that's when

596
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:06,680
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631
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Speaker 1: the way well and opened it four a while ago,

632
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:04,520
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633
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634
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 1: and the Cleveland Browns. Baker Mayfield, I'm gonna fuck him

635
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 1: up revenge. I'm a huge Panthers fan. I like the

636
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,479
Speaker 1: over six and a half. I think Baker is an

637
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 1: interesting long shot for a variety of passing props. Why

638
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:25,000
Speaker 1: aren't I taking the Panthers minus two here is a

639
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 1: short home favorite. In fact, for the record, you can

640
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 1: check in the action app. I did take him to

641
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 1: two and a half. Another game where I kind of

642
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 1: bet early. We all kind of bet Carolina early on

643
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 1: because they were plus three plus four, just because at

644
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 1: the time Watson was gonna play. And then as the

645
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 1: months rolled on, the numbers started coming down, and then

646
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 1: once they traded for Baker flipped and then once the

647
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 1: Watson news came out, Chad said, it shot up the

648
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 1: four three and a half. The pros beded back down

649
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 1: because it's like, this is not that I'm saying this

650
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 1: is your season, Carolina, but you have to start off good,

651
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 1: like this team needs to start hot with Baker. I

652
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 1: want to know you need to start that way. So

653
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 1: I don't like the position I'm in with this Carolina

654
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 1: team that I feel like they have the pressure on them,

655
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 1: that the Browns will be playing free. Everyone's awful. The

656
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 1: expectations are very low. Jakober said it is not a

657
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 1: good quarterback. So yeah, blind picking, I would take Carolina.

658
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 1: But this is again another one of these very small

659
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 1: bets for me. I just I just don't know what

660
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 1: to really do with this game because I don't know

661
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 1: what I'm getting from this Browns team. They on paper,

662
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: they have more talent to this Carolina team, but we've

663
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 1: seen Baker like Baker with talent around him to make

664
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,479
Speaker 1: things happen. Again, he took this Brown's team just two

665
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 1: years ago the NFC Championship games, So I get why

666
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:40,560
Speaker 1: Chad so hyped in this Carolina team. I'm excited just

667
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 1: to wait and see before I start putting six figures

668
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 1: or five figures into Baker Mayfield led Carolina Panthers when

669
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 1: he's healthy and has talent. The ceiling for Baker Mayfield

670
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 1: is consistently higher, considerably higher than he's being given credit for.

671
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 1: That's really just the bottom line. He just makes the

672
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 1: dumbest fucking decisions. Chad's gonna have a moment, Baker's gonna

673
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 1: throw a pick, and you're like, fuck Baker, I fucking

674
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 1: hate this guy. I feel like there's so much pressure

675
00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 1: on Carolina in just week one them in Miami. I

676
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 1: feel like, are the two teams of the highest pressure,

677
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,840
Speaker 1: Like Miami needs to beat in New England to start

678
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,840
Speaker 1: the year or man, people are gonna lose their minds

679
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,320
Speaker 1: down there in Miami. You mentioned this off the top.

680
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 1: The Texans number has moved the Texans against the Colt

681
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 1: to move from eight and a half to seven. I

682
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 1: bet the Texans at plus eight and a half on Sunday,

683
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:34,720
Speaker 1: it's now Tuesday, it's at seven. I'm looking at Action

684
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 1: network dot com right now, and you can get all

685
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 1: this information on the site and in the app. So

686
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 1: when I quote percentage of bets percentage of money, I'm

687
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:48,320
Speaker 1: getting it off of Actions properties. The biggest delta between

688
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 1: number of bets and percent of money is on the Texans.

689
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 1: Of the bets are on the Texans. So basically the

690
00:34:56,719 --> 00:35:00,840
Speaker 1: public are betting on the Texans over the Olds, but

691
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 1: nine percent of the money of the money is generally

692
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 1: that's the wise guys biggest delta, second biggest delta. Our

693
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 1: third biggest delta is the Bears and the Niners, and

694
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 1: we'll get to the second one in a little bit.

695
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 1: We haven't gotten there yet. Even at seven, I'd play

696
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 1: the Texans. They're better than we think. They performed better

697
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 1: than we thought they would last year. We believe in

698
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 1: Davis Mills is a quarterback. Frank Reich. His team is

699
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,399
Speaker 1: always underperform. I'm a mind that Frank Wright probably isn't

700
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 1: as good a coach as everyone believes him to be.

701
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 1: His teams have generally underperformed, even though he's had eight quarterbacks. Like,

702
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 1: that's your job, dude. You play the guys you got

703
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 1: and then you win. Give me the Texans here. I

704
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:46,919
Speaker 1: like him at seven, probably the lowest I like him,

705
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:49,439
Speaker 1: but I like him at seven. Yeah, and Frank Reich

706
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 1: has never covered Week one. And as I mean, it's

707
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 1: a young coaching career, it's what year four formed. But again,

708
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 1: these teams have historically come out slow. Last year, I

709
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 1: think their own four colts start the year. So we

710
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 1: love all things about this Houston team. We already checking,

711
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 1: already touched on it. We just knew this was a

712
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:06,359
Speaker 1: bad number. We're lucky we both locked in an eight

713
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 1: and a half. This was my second best bet I

714
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 1: gave out, So I give off the rams um on

715
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 1: the action app writing it. And then this is the

716
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 1: other pick I gave out, just the fact that said

717
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 1: in the article, eight and a half is just too

718
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 1: many points in the divisional game Week one between these

719
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 1: two teams. That again the Colts they beat him last year. Good,

720
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 1: they beat their crap out of Houston. They beat him

721
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 1: twice last year. I think both times were over thirty points.

722
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 1: This Houston team is completely different, the things they've added,

723
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 1: the update they've done on defense. Again, say what you

724
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 1: want about Lovey Smith. I do think he is a

725
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 1: smart defensive mind. I just like this Houston team and

726
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 1: Chat I might begin sucked in here, I might be

727
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 1: drinking too much of the kool aid, but all the

728
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 1: pros are with us. Like I've every product talked to,

729
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 1: They've loved this number and they were gonna come in

730
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 1: heavy on it this week, and they did so. The

731
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 1: number dropped a seven. It's gonna half. Other pros came

732
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:56,360
Speaker 1: back on the other side, right get a middle position

733
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:57,879
Speaker 1: at that six and a half. They bet it back

734
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 1: up to seven Fandel, I believe that's seven and a

735
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 1: half right now in Jersey, and that number keeps fluctuating.

736
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 1: So to me, if you didn't get the day and

737
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:08,399
Speaker 1: a half, you could wait. But it's a little risky

738
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:09,839
Speaker 1: because it could drop down a six and a half

739
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 1: and that crossed another key number of seven, so you

740
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,239
Speaker 1: could get seven half of fandor right now. I would

741
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 1: grab that just in case. But yeah, no brainer played

742
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 1: divisional game at home. Dog. I love it. My only

743
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 1: pause right now is the fact that, shoot, it's so

744
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 1: much love for Houston, like all every proctol. I haven't

745
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,479
Speaker 1: talked to a single pro that's on the Colts, which

746
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 1: is very rare because usually there's a couple of guys

747
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:36,240
Speaker 1: you like chalk a little scary. It feels like I'm again,

748
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:39,279
Speaker 1: I'm heavily invested in this, uh this this Houston team

749
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 1: just for a week one. But you can't not take

750
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 1: that number. Like Chad said, it's such a big number

751
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 1: for week one. The Raiders very interesting team. I know

752
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,800
Speaker 1: how much you love the Raiders. They're on the road

753
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 1: at the Chargers. Las Vegas is a three and a

754
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:59,240
Speaker 1: half point underdog, getting a preponderance of the money against

755
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 1: the Chargers team that everyone believes might be the most

756
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:05,399
Speaker 1: talented top to bottom roster in the NFL. And if

757
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:08,840
Speaker 1: there is anyone who was expected to win the division

758
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,360
Speaker 1: other than the Chiefs, probably the best division in the

759
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 1: a f C West with four fantastic quarterbacks, it is

760
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Chargers. This is probably a pass for me. Yeah,

761
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 1: I'll pass too, because this line stinks like to me,

762
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:25,319
Speaker 1: they're they're begging me to take this Raider's team. They

763
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 1: know I want to take that three and have so bad.

764
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:31,360
Speaker 1: But I look at a team in Vegas that have

765
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,879
Speaker 1: a new head coach learning a new scheme on the road,

766
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 1: they probably have more fans though honestly right they'll probably

767
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 1: have more fans in the Chargers in l A. But

768
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:42,200
Speaker 1: I feel like this is a good spot to take

769
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,799
Speaker 1: this Chargers team. You got Herbert at home with the

770
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 1: head coach that they're running the same system as that

771
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 1: it last year him in his OUFC. So I wish

772
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:51,480
Speaker 1: I could bet it. I wish I had the confidence

773
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 1: take this Chargers team. There's just other games that I

774
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:57,319
Speaker 1: like better. So I will be betting the Chargers, but

775
00:38:57,640 --> 00:38:59,439
Speaker 1: not not going to be one of the five We

776
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: we land the next game on the docket here, and

777
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 1: I just want to say, we thought there'd be so

778
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 1: many games that we want to bet. The truth is,

779
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 1: I think there's right now three that we feel really

780
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 1: good about, four that we're like maybe, so it's not

781
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 1: as cut and dry as we thought, well it is.

782
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 1: I'm just I'm trying to keep the show, you know,

783
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 1: excitement go as we go on here. All right, Vikings

784
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 1: plus one and a half against the Packers. I'm surprised

785
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 1: um this this number has moved down and opened a

786
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 1: two and a half. I'm surprised at the amount of

787
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:38,800
Speaker 1: money coming in on the Packers because to me, I

788
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 1: don't like this game because I think we've lost value

789
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 1: and I want to bet the best of the number.

790
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 1: But the Vikings are the side here, you know, and

791
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 1: this is I'll get in trouble. I break my own rules,

792
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,319
Speaker 1: like I like Green Bay. I just there's two bunch

793
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,239
Speaker 1: being made about the green Bay wide receivers and it's

794
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 1: like as if people don't realize there's always guys living,

795
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:00,319
Speaker 1: Like people don't even know who Greg Jennings is, lester

796
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:03,360
Speaker 1: of certain age, like that guy left. Jordy Nelson stepped

797
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 1: up and then that a guy named Jones stepped up,

798
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 1: and then Davante Adams stepped up. There's just always the

799
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:11,239
Speaker 1: next guy up for Green Bay at wide receiver, Like

800
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 1: they find these guys and Rogers makes them great. So

801
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:16,400
Speaker 1: I saw the under get hit and I saw in

802
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 1: Minnesota get hit. So that's professional bets and professional movement.

803
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 1: So if you want to beg with Green Bay with me,

804
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 1: you just understand you're going against guys like Chad and

805
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 1: other pros that are like you're taking a home dog divisionally,

806
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 1: you blindly bet it. I think this number should be three.

807
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:33,719
Speaker 1: I just I think there's too much hype on this

808
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 1: Vikings team. Even professionals. They're like looking at this offense. Oh,

809
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:40,399
Speaker 1: their new o c their new head coach, he's he's

810
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:42,400
Speaker 1: the right hand man to McVeigh. This guy's new scheme

811
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 1: is gonna really change his whole Vikings outlook. And it's

812
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 1: still at the end of the day, it's still Kirk Cousins.

813
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:50,839
Speaker 1: So I'm I'm great with taking Rogers. I'll be down

814
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 1: four or up four in the fourth quarter and somehow

815
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 1: Kirk's gonna help me win this bet. So Chad's me

816
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 1: sweating Kirk I'll be sweating Rogers and we'll see who's

817
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:06,759
Speaker 1: mount come Monday. Oh, I haven't bet it yet. Don't

818
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:10,799
Speaker 1: talk about our principles all the time. And we've got

819
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 1: a couple of games here in the Ravens and in

820
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 1: the Packers. It's so clearly we should be betting from

821
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 1: a historical precedent point of view the home dog, and

822
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:24,760
Speaker 1: yet the matchup is making you say take the favorite.

823
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:30,319
Speaker 1: And since divisional home dogs five and oh a t

824
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 1: s week one, going against that trend to which again

825
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,919
Speaker 1: it's scary, but you are. I gotta trust the numbers. Brother,

826
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:39,359
Speaker 1: I got it at three. It's it's one and a half. Oh,

827
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:44,000
Speaker 1: you're a professional. The Giants, Uh, this is the second

828
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 1: biggest differential between money and bets. The bets on the

829
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 1: Titans at minus five and a half of the bets

830
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 1: on the Giants cent of the money A lot of

831
00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 1: professionals like in the Giants here. I can't do it.

832
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:03,320
Speaker 1: I people are gonna hate me because I hate on

833
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:05,920
Speaker 1: their teams. But I just I don't get the Giants hype.

834
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 1: I don't get it either. I'm excited, right, excited to

835
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:12,239
Speaker 1: see what they do this year? Like this is it

836
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,439
Speaker 1: for Daniel Jones and like that as a fan, that's

837
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:16,360
Speaker 1: must be nice for Giants fans. I know this is

838
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 1: it like either this kids actually finally be good with

839
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 1: a good head coach, well was just not good and

840
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 1: like that's it. But man, everyone trying to hype up

841
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 1: their offensive lines better, everyone trying to take a better

842
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 1: you're for Barkley. It's just like, I just don't know

843
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 1: what's backing up these statements. Uh, Tennessee to me is

844
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 1: still a very good team. Number probably should be six.

845
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 1: I like that it's stayed a five and a half.

846
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 1: I definitely think it's tsue and Chad just said a

847
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:43,879
Speaker 1: lot of money is coming on on the neverb really

848
00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 1: hasn't move much, which means the books are kind of

849
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:47,799
Speaker 1: the same thing. They're kind of shruggling their shoulders, being like,

850
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:51,040
Speaker 1: we're happy to be needing the Tennessee against the Giants here.

851
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:53,879
Speaker 1: This is a position we don't mind taking. So yeah,

852
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:56,399
Speaker 1: it's not when I've heavily bet, but I have I've

853
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 1: had bet this Tennessee team. And again, if you're a

854
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 1: big teaser guy, don't mind taking this one as a teaser,

855
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 1: or you just do a money line parlay with them, uh,

856
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 1: because I could see it being closer than we believe,

857
00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:09,480
Speaker 1: just because again Tennessee loss a J. Brown, Like, we

858
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 1: don't really know where getting from the wire receiver position.

859
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,800
Speaker 1: With them, we do know is we have a solid

860
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:16,840
Speaker 1: o line with Derrick Henry and a better quarterback and

861
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 1: a better head coach. Right, So I do think it's

862
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 1: interesting that the the pros again, people are gonna see

863
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:24,400
Speaker 1: this Week one, a lot of people are gonna betting

864
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:26,840
Speaker 1: what they're hoping to happen this season, which is totally

865
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:29,240
Speaker 1: relevant to Week one. You just simply should be playing

866
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:31,760
Speaker 1: this week alone. So yeah, trying to be not biased

867
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 1: because I am excited for this Giants team because like again,

868
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:36,840
Speaker 1: they they to me have no expectations. It's kind of

869
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 1: a fun year for them where it's they're gonna be

870
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 1: really good or they're just gonna be absolutely crap again,

871
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 1: but would not be putting money on them. Give me,

872
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: give me six and a half. Seven, I'm there on

873
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:46,399
Speaker 1: the Giants, but a five and a half, I think

874
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:50,879
Speaker 1: you gotta take Tennessee. I'm gonna foreshadow something I think

875
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 1: the Titans this week and we'll talk about this on Thursday.

876
00:43:56,280 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 1: Interesting survivor choice. Do you think about this positions Other

877
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:04,360
Speaker 1: teams are in who you might want to pick and

878
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 1: survivor they're in trap spots, and the Titans are a

879
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:09,319
Speaker 1: team you might want to get rid of early and

880
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 1: they're not in a trap spot. Rights, that's a good one.

881
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 1: But when we're gonna play the Ravens again, we have

882
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 1: to look to the schedule. Well, we'll get to it

883
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:22,480
Speaker 1: on Thursday. Chiefs are six point favorites over the Cardinals

884
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 1: in Arizona. Bets and money on the Chiefs. I know

885
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,520
Speaker 1: you love the Chiefs. I know I know how much

886
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:33,800
Speaker 1: you love the Chiefs. The backlash to the backlash against

887
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:36,800
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes is alive and well on the Favorites podcast.

888
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:41,319
Speaker 1: This kind of feels foxholy to me. What like taking Arizona,

889
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 1: Oh God, Chad, I mean Chad's right and saying you

890
00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 1: bet the number here, But I had made this number six.

891
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:49,480
Speaker 1: I think you're still getting good value on the Chiefs.

892
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 1: And it was funny when I put it in. Uh, Basically,

893
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 1: Chad has me do this thing with other guys that

894
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 1: work at Action. We put in like an NFL power

895
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 1: rating thing they plug into the app. Everyone else had

896
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 1: three half four and I just came in with six.

897
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:03,799
Speaker 1: I was just like, no, this number should be six.

898
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 1: And it looked crazy because at the time I think

899
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:07,320
Speaker 1: the number was three, and then I went up to

900
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 1: three and a half, and then all of a sudden

901
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:10,759
Speaker 1: this week it shot up to five and a half six.

902
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 1: So I think it's good where it is at. Like,

903
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 1: I like this Chief's team. I like the fact that

904
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 1: they have upgraded. The only reason with Chad that you

905
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 1: should maybe think about taking Arizona here is no one

906
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 1: likes them. They're kind of being hated on by everybody.

907
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 1: No one's taking them their division, no one. He's talking

908
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:31,479
Speaker 1: about them secretly. They're greatest strength is running the ball,

909
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 1: like they ran the ball a lot last year. Connor,

910
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:39,320
Speaker 1: they're running back. I think he had sixteen touchdowns rushing.

911
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:42,279
Speaker 1: That's a huge weapon. And we know this Chief's team

912
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 1: that was their Achilles Hill last year. You could pick

913
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 1: up five eclips. So that's the fear, right if you're

914
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:50,240
Speaker 1: if you're taking a big road favorite that can't stop

915
00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 1: the run, that's a recipe for disaster. So and Chad,

916
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 1: Chad was Chad saying, it's true, you're like you're always

917
00:45:57,239 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 1: supposed to take Arizona here. See me, I just don't

918
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:03,040
Speaker 1: think there's value yet. If they hit seven, I I

919
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 1: will take a position on Arizona, no doubt. But still

920
00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:07,120
Speaker 1: at six, I still think you're getting good value on

921
00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 1: the Chief's team. Well, listen, we got two other games

922
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:13,840
Speaker 1: that are foxholes, and one of them there's no way

923
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:18,319
Speaker 1: we're taking. I'm putting the Cardinals down as a potential

924
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 1: for our top five. No, there's no chance Cardinals. It's

925
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:24,800
Speaker 1: a good spot. It's good spot. Buccane years two and

926
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 1: a half point favorites on the road at Dallas Sunday night.

927
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:32,760
Speaker 1: Tom Brady's back. The Cowboys are back. The Cowboys their

928
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:36,960
Speaker 1: home dogs. I mean the Cowboys are the side. Yeah,

929
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 1: it sucks, like I hate betting a team like this

930
00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:42,800
Speaker 1: that just had so much negativity heading into the season.

931
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:45,279
Speaker 1: But lucky for us, Tampas had the same exact thing.

932
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 1: They just had a lot of drama in this camp.

933
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:51,760
Speaker 1: Dak I just saw crazy stat career completion percentage against

934
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:56,600
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. For some reason, he plays incredibly well against them.

935
00:46:56,760 --> 00:46:59,040
Speaker 1: Last year, the all hype team with Tampa the only

936
00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 1: beat them by two and week one, we're exactly where

937
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 1: we were last year, right, except we're at home with

938
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:07,799
Speaker 1: this team getting two and a half. It's gross. We

939
00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 1: gotta do it. This is the foxhole. I mean, there's

940
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:12,959
Speaker 1: just no doubt about it. No one's gonna be betting

941
00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:15,840
Speaker 1: this game Sunday night, taking Dallas going to the foxhole.

942
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:24,600
Speaker 1: Let's climb down into the foxhole like it's us and

943
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 1: it's us in Cowboy fans, like, I mean literally, they

944
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 1: just signed a four year old man to play left

945
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:31,200
Speaker 1: tackle for them in Jason Peters, a guy who was

946
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:33,759
Speaker 1: on his couch all summer. Another team gave him a

947
00:47:33,840 --> 00:47:37,200
Speaker 1: call and Dallas did so. Dallas definitely is a nice spot.

948
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 1: But you know, for Week one, weird things are happening.

949
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 1: We're getting home dog that we can't really disagree that

950
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:47,400
Speaker 1: this feels gross, right, Chet Like this is probably the

951
00:47:47,600 --> 00:47:49,879
Speaker 1: This to me feels like the most forced one going

952
00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 1: against Brady and week one. But they just have had

953
00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 1: so much turmoil and Tampa. It's like it's hard to

954
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:57,800
Speaker 1: back him until they get into a groove in this season.

955
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:01,799
Speaker 1: I've been eyeing this game for weeks. Every single time

956
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 1: I look at the board and I see the two

957
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:07,319
Speaker 1: and a half, it feels like, of course, I got

958
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:09,719
Speaker 1: to take the Cowboys and I have not. It's one

959
00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:11,400
Speaker 1: of the games I have not pulled the trigger on.

960
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 1: I just I haven't been able to do it. If

961
00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 1: you're really that scared, that's a good tease game, then,

962
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:18,200
Speaker 1: like if you don't want to bet it straight Again,

963
00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:20,839
Speaker 1: Stucky is our guy for teasers. I feel like you'll

964
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:22,480
Speaker 1: have this one in there, because again, eight and a

965
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 1: half on a home dog. I I understand I'm not

966
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:27,280
Speaker 1: a huge teas guy, but I would definitely tease Dallas.

967
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:29,759
Speaker 1: That's a good number for a home team. Listen to

968
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:34,240
Speaker 1: Stucky and Chris Raybon on the Action Network podcast. It's brilliant.

969
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 1: Their Thursday episode where they create their six pack of

970
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:41,840
Speaker 1: best bets is so good. You can also hear Stucky

971
00:48:41,880 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 1: and Colin Wilson on The Big Bets on Campus pod

972
00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:48,920
Speaker 1: previewing the college games. All right, Russell Wilson is visiting

973
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 1: his old team, the Seattle Seahawks. Who's playing quarterback for

974
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:58,919
Speaker 1: the Seahawks? Is it really Gino Smith? Did I dream that? Yeah?

975
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:02,120
Speaker 1: Thank god? Is Geno Smith not Drew Lock. The most

976
00:49:02,120 --> 00:49:04,759
Speaker 1: disgusting thing we can do here is take the Seahawks.

977
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:07,000
Speaker 1: It almost at six and a half right now. It

978
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:11,840
Speaker 1: almost feels negligent if we don't and it's probably of

979
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 1: those sick things, or if I lose and that Cowboys bet,

980
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:16,239
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go probably even heavier on this game because

981
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 1: I'll just be so mad where it's like, come on,

982
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 1: like the one of these dogs gotta win big in

983
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:25,600
Speaker 1: prime time. Seahawks gross like this, this is one of

984
00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:28,239
Speaker 1: the grosser bets. This is the Jets. Like, if you're

985
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:30,440
Speaker 1: bet two teams this week that take the biggest amount

986
00:49:30,440 --> 00:49:32,719
Speaker 1: of balls and the grossest bet you can make, it's

987
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 1: probably this is the Jets. It's just disgusting. The Seahawks

988
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:41,440
Speaker 1: on paper, bad defense, offense not terrible, Like they got

989
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:44,040
Speaker 1: the weapons that penny in the backfield, they got tire locket,

990
00:49:44,080 --> 00:49:46,719
Speaker 1: It's like they got the weapons. Canino get it there.

991
00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:49,280
Speaker 1: But to me, the biggest thing is it's it's Russ

992
00:49:49,520 --> 00:49:52,239
Speaker 1: first start. It's gotta be so weird, Like again, the

993
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:54,240
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan thing's gonna be weird too, Matt Ryan fourteen

994
00:49:54,280 --> 00:49:56,120
Speaker 1: years in the land, the first game for the Colts.

995
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:58,719
Speaker 1: It's gonna be weird, walking out, the guys in locker room,

996
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 1: all of it, Like that's weird. It how how do

997
00:50:01,239 --> 00:50:02,640
Speaker 1: we not feel like this is gonna strangest thing I

998
00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 1: have for Russell Wilson going back to where all those memories,

999
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:08,360
Speaker 1: all those amazing things happened. Brady, what was that? What

1000
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 1: do he went by two points against New England when

1001
00:50:11,000 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 1: he went back last year against Mac Jones, like we've

1002
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:16,560
Speaker 1: just seen even the strongest mental guy in the world,

1003
00:50:16,600 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 1: Tom Brady, he broke and he talked about it affected

1004
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:20,600
Speaker 1: him after the game. He said it was the weirdest

1005
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:24,239
Speaker 1: thing ever be another sideline looking at the stands. That's

1006
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:26,319
Speaker 1: kind of rare. And russ having people that loved him

1007
00:50:26,360 --> 00:50:28,840
Speaker 1: for ten years curse on him out talking ship to

1008
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:31,280
Speaker 1: him going to be weird. So I love this number

1009
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:32,680
Speaker 1: all the way down to four and a half. It's

1010
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:36,440
Speaker 1: it's gross people, But primetime Island games, you're getting a

1011
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 1: dog and I guess all hype team in Denver, another

1012
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:42,839
Speaker 1: team that's just been talked about all summer take it.

1013
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:44,680
Speaker 1: This number has just been ballooned up on the simple

1014
00:50:44,719 --> 00:50:47,400
Speaker 1: fact they have to protect against teasers and they know

1015
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:49,840
Speaker 1: the public is gonna come back heavy on this game, especially.

1016
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:53,279
Speaker 1: I mean if the Bucks lose, this number could jump

1017
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:55,000
Speaker 1: to seven again, which it was at and it came

1018
00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:57,319
Speaker 1: down when Gino's name. So I like it at six

1019
00:50:57,360 --> 00:50:58,440
Speaker 1: and a half. But if you don't want to wait,

1020
00:50:58,520 --> 00:50:59,800
Speaker 1: you wanna wait to live it. See see if you

1021
00:50:59,840 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 1: get seven, I get it, because I do think I

1022
00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 1: could get back up there. I think it's fitting that

1023
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:08,360
Speaker 1: we end a disgusting show convincing ourselves that Seattle plus

1024
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:11,120
Speaker 1: six and a half is not only a great play,

1025
00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:13,640
Speaker 1: but it may be one of our top five picks

1026
00:51:13,800 --> 00:51:16,920
Speaker 1: when we narrow it down on Thursday. It's gonna be interesting.

1027
00:51:17,120 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 1: We got a couple of conversations going on in here

1028
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 1: when on Thursday and we talked about sharp calls, which

1029
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:25,880
Speaker 1: is you will get over the next forty eight hours

1030
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 1: a lot of phone calls from professional betters who listen

1031
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:32,600
Speaker 1: to the podcast. Not so much week one, but as

1032
00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:34,160
Speaker 1: the season goes along, it's gonna be a lot more.

1033
00:51:34,200 --> 00:51:35,920
Speaker 1: But like, yeah, the only guys are gonna calling me.

1034
00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:39,080
Speaker 1: Your guys are already talked ship to me about their picks.

1035
00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:41,960
Speaker 1: They will call and they will either confirm what we're

1036
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:45,400
Speaker 1: saying or trash what we're saying. It's gonna be no confirmations.

1037
00:51:45,400 --> 00:51:48,040
Speaker 1: It's only gonna be negative. Week one, Well, we live

1038
00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:52,360
Speaker 1: for the negative. It hypes us up. Hit people in

1039
00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:56,960
Speaker 1: the fucking mouth. Run it up there, fucking throat. That's it.

1040
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:02,399
Speaker 1: We got through. I was nervous about this. We got

1041
00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:05,080
Speaker 1: through the full slate. We had things to say about

1042
00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 1: every game. Here we go, brother, This has been the

1043
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:12,640
Speaker 1: favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm Chad Moman, He's

1044
00:52:12,640 --> 00:52:17,880
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter for producer Extraordinaire Matt Mitchell. Download the podcast

1045
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:21,279
Speaker 1: from Spotify, from Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts.

1046
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:24,040
Speaker 1: Download the Action Network app. Take advantage of all the

1047
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:27,880
Speaker 1: tech that we're linked with our sponsor FanDuel on quick slip,

1048
00:52:28,680 --> 00:52:32,800
Speaker 1: super easy, super cool. Listen to the Action Network podcast

1049
00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus podcast rate review, subscribe, but

1050
00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:39,040
Speaker 1: leave us five stars. Say whatever you want feedback as

1051
00:52:39,040 --> 00:52:41,879
Speaker 1: a gift until Thursday. I love you,