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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go throwing in Joe.

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Speaker 2: We're sitting up to catch.

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Speaker 3: The most gamblers. When they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 3: to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 3: It's just the ultimate kaba and we are going away.

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Speaker 3: What is up? Everybody?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 4: I am your host, Chris Raybond of The Action Network.

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Speaker 4: This is your super wild Card weekend betting preview. We're

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Speaker 4: gonna talk our favorite sides, totals, moneyline, underdogs, and of

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Speaker 4: course crack open our six pack of against the spread

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Speaker 4: bets with the help of my co host, Prime Minister

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Speaker 4: of Degenerate Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 3: What's going on, brother.

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Speaker 2: Fun Week eighteen. I think we ended up on the

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Speaker 2: wrong side of aaronson a couple of games. Ravens was

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Speaker 2: kind of brutal at to fuck us to cover both

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Speaker 2: fumbles and then hit a long bomb and then Ravens

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Speaker 2: can't get in into the end zone late, and then

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Speaker 2: the Panthers. I mean, god, I'm just so happy. I

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Speaker 2: don't think that the Panthers again a touchback on a

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Speaker 2: clear touchdown and they score another touchdown the cover, but

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Speaker 2: it gets called back to a legal formation and they

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Speaker 2: can't cover even though they only allowed nine points. That'll happen.

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Speaker 2: I'm excited for the playoffs. Who cares what happened last

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Speaker 2: week or in the regular season. It was a good

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Speaker 2: season for us, but last season was last season, I think,

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Speaker 2: as no one ever has said, but I'm sending it now.

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Speaker 2: Excited to get into wildcard weekend after we break these

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Speaker 2: games down. Only seven more football games to break down.

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Speaker 2: So excited to get into these Excited to enjoy the weekend.

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Speaker 2: I'll be with you and hopefully some of you guys

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Speaker 2: who were listening or watching on YouTube if you're in

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Speaker 2: the New York New Jersey area, will be in Hoboken

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Speaker 2: Saturday and Sunday. Free drinks, sweat all of our bets together.

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Speaker 2: Drinks are free. You just got an R s v

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Speaker 2: P link will be in the episode description.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Man, I'm excited that it was a It was a

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Speaker 4: movie last year when we did it, and so I'm

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Speaker 4: looking forward to uh doing it again again. That's the

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Speaker 4: Shepherd and the Knucklehead and Hoboke in New Jersey for

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Speaker 4: anybody that's interested. Again, all of the information will be

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Speaker 4: in the episode description, but do make sure you are

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Speaker 4: SVP because these things do fill up.

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Speaker 3: That's the one thing, you know.

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Speaker 4: We can only fit as many people as they allow

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Speaker 4: us to, so please r s VP. It'll be Stuck, Me, Kerner, Simon, Hunter, Milman,

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Speaker 4: Nick Giffen, all your favorite action experts. So if you

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Speaker 4: ever wanted up to give us some shit about any

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Speaker 4: bet you tell us on it didn't hit, you could

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Speaker 4: do that too. Looking forward to seeing y'all and again

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Speaker 4: appreciate y'all for listening and exciting.

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Speaker 2: Favorite action personalities and Dubundo we will also be there.

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Speaker 4: Nash Out said, Bundo. Let's get into our six pack

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Speaker 4: because we got no Thursday Night Football, which means straight six.

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Speaker 1: Pack Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: We're opening it up to any type of bet, you know, totals, props, whatever.

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Speaker 4: The only rule is we have to have at least

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Speaker 4: one side each, so that'll be our six pack.

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Speaker 3: Stuck, you're up sixty nine sixty three.

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Speaker 4: We'll do same, two to two for our first two picks,

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Speaker 4: one point for the third, and a bonus point.

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Speaker 3: If we sweep all three.

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Speaker 4: You went first last week, so I'm up first this

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Speaker 4: week and I'll start it off with the first pick

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Speaker 4: of the souper were wild Card weekend six pack, going

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Speaker 4: with the Green Bay Packers plus seven and a half

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Speaker 4: at the Dallas Cowboys. The key for me in this

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Speaker 4: one is, anytime you face Dallas in Dallas, you know

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Speaker 4: you need to score if you're going to back a

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Speaker 4: team to cover against the Cowboys in Dallas. Well, green

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Speaker 4: Bay sixth in offensive DVOA on the year, Dallas ninth

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Speaker 4: by the way, so Green Bay has overtaken Dallas, and

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Speaker 4: then it weighted DVOA, which just waits recent games more

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Speaker 4: heavily discounts games earlier in the season. Green Bay is

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Speaker 4: top three in offense, Dallas is eight. So is green

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Speaker 4: Bay offense playing well. And that's mostly to do with

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Speaker 4: Jordan Love, who you know, kind of took the cobwebs

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Speaker 4: out over the first two months of the season. He

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Speaker 4: was sitting for the better part of three years outside

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Speaker 4: a couple of spot starts, But his numbers since November

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Speaker 4: have been borderline elite. First seven games in September October

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Speaker 4: fifty eight percent completion rate. Since then, sixty nine percent

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Speaker 4: two hundred and thirteen yards per game and six point

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Speaker 4: four yards in attempt over the first two months to

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Speaker 4: sixty seven and seven point seven yards in attempt over

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Speaker 4: the last two months. Two point one touchdowns per game

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Speaker 4: just zero point three picks, so a twenty one to

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Speaker 4: three touchdown at interception ratio since November that spans ten games.

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Speaker 4: His sack rate has gone down as well, and that's

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Speaker 4: despite missing Christian Watson for five games, Musgrave the top

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Speaker 4: tight end for six games, Aaron Jones for three games,

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Speaker 4: Wits for two games, and parts of others, Jayden Reid

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Speaker 4: for a game, in parts of others. Even Dobbs left

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Speaker 4: last game. So Love has been doing all this with

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Speaker 4: a rotating cast of receivers. The old line is held

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Speaker 4: up tied for sevens in pass block efficiency since week nine,

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Speaker 4: her PFF and both tackles Rashid Walker and Zach tom

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Speaker 4: right out in the top twenty five among eighty three

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Speaker 4: qualifiers in terms of pass blocking. And you know, so

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Speaker 4: you Love has got protection and this Dallas pass rush

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Speaker 4: it's been good, but not dominant, at least by the numbers.

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Speaker 4: You know, they are eighth and sack rate thirteenth and

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Speaker 4: sacks per game and sixteenth in pressure rate. So Dallas,

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Speaker 4: you know, obviously they're gonna be able to get pressure,

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Speaker 4: but you know, this Green Bay o line should be

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Speaker 4: able to hold up. And Jordan Love also has done

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Speaker 4: well against this kind of scheme. We all know Dallas

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Speaker 4: plays the most man coverage in the league. They got

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Speaker 4: deron blind and Gilmour on the outside. But Love's passer

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Speaker 4: rating thirteen points better against man coverage than against zone

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Speaker 4: coverage this year. And you know, obviously Dallas has been

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Speaker 4: a juggernaut for the most part at home, but you

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Speaker 4: just got to score to keep up with them. And

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Speaker 4: I don't think Green Bay is going to have too

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Speaker 4: much of a problem with that. They've done this all

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Speaker 4: year going on a road. They're third in the league

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Speaker 4: in points per game on the road, just over twenty five.

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Speaker 4: And if you're looking for a trend, wild card or

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Speaker 4: Division round, single digit road dogs on Sundays forty six

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Speaker 4: sixteen and one seventy four percent against the spread since

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Speaker 4: two thousand and three, covering by four point four points

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Speaker 4: per game on average.

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Speaker 3: I think Green Bay can hang here. I think this

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Speaker 3: is too many points.

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Speaker 4: I think this line should be five and a half six,

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Speaker 4: you know, just that, maybe a hair inside of six,

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Speaker 4: but you can round it to six. So I love

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Speaker 4: getting the seven and a half with Green Bay.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, unfortunately this would have been my first pick, but

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Speaker 2: you took it. Decided that I like the most by

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Speaker 2: far this weekend. I mean Love who ended up finishing

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Speaker 2: top five EPA among all quarterbacks among thirty three quarterbacks

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Speaker 2: at least one hundred dropbacks since week eleven, second EPA

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Speaker 2: plus completion percentage over expectation only behind Purty same timeframe

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Speaker 2: since week eleven, eighteen touchdowns, one interception, seventy percent, completion percent,

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Speaker 2: seven point seven yards per attempt, with a ridiculous point

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Speaker 2: two six EPA per pass play. Unbelievable. Prescott's been right

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Speaker 2: behind him. But you said it. This Dallas team. Look,

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Speaker 2: I've only faded them since that, you know, I said,

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Speaker 2: I don't want to get in front of this Dallas

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Speaker 2: train ever since I saw what they did coming out

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Speaker 2: of the buy. The only time I faded them was

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Speaker 2: against the Bills. Luckily that worked out. I'm fading them here.

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Speaker 2: I took a seven a half as well. I think

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Speaker 2: this sign should be closer to six, and the Packer's offense. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: they can keep up. They're playing just too well right

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Speaker 2: now for me now to take this. I also could

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Speaker 2: see McCarthy making a boneheaded clock management or just in

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Speaker 2: game decision to cost Dallas points. And you mentioned it.

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Speaker 2: This Dallas team. Prescott's been really good as a favorite

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Speaker 2: in this range, but usually it's against inferior teams, and

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Speaker 2: once they get a lead, they can and take advantage

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Speaker 2: of bad offensive lines. That's not the case here. Green

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Speaker 2: Bay's offense right now is humming. Their offensive line can

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Speaker 2: hold up against this Dallas pass rush. And then you'll

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Speaker 2: hear the narrative that's not necessarily a narrative, it's a fact,

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Speaker 2: but that Dallas been so dominant home. They're averaging thirty

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Speaker 2: seven points per game. They haven't lost. But here's what

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Speaker 2: they beat the Patriots, the Jets, the Giants, the Commanders,

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Speaker 2: the free Falling Eagles, the Seahawks, the Rams, and the Lions.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, the Lions should have won, and

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Speaker 2: the Seahawks had the ball with the chance to win

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Speaker 2: late in that game. Dallas gonna get its points. But

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Speaker 2: like you said, I think green Bay can keep up.

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Speaker 2: It's not the worst matchup for the green Bay defense,

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Speaker 2: but I don't think they're gonna get too many stops.

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Speaker 2: And green Bay on the road this year, yes, they're

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Speaker 2: only four and five, all five losses by four points

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Speaker 2: or less. Dallas all the pressure here, green Bay can

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Speaker 2: pay play loose. There is a stat here that I'll

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Speaker 2: mention a trend of inexperienced quarterbacks making their first start,

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Speaker 2: and it's bad. And if you go back, quarterbacks making

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Speaker 2: their first playoffs start just seventeen thirty five and one

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Speaker 2: against the spread against quarterbacks who have playoff experience. So

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Speaker 2: that applies this weekend to Stroud, Love, Rudolph, and Tua.

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Speaker 2: I think it does apply to Rudolph very inexperienced, but

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Speaker 2: I don't think that's necessarily the case with Love, who's

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Speaker 2: playing so well. And by the way, also Stroup, these

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Speaker 2: guys played and they've been they've played in playoff games

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Speaker 2: the past two weeks. Stroud went on the road last weekend,

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Speaker 2: that was a playoff game. He had a win, win,

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Speaker 2: and in or you're out Love the past the week's

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Speaker 2: been playing in playoff games. I love the Packers here,

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Speaker 2: wouldn't be shocked they pulled off the outright upset, but

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Speaker 2: I think Dallas probably finds a way to pull it

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Speaker 2: out by three to.

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Speaker 4: Six, you know, with that offense playing the way it is,

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Speaker 4: you know, weighted overall DVOA, Dallas top five team obviously,

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Speaker 4: that's why they're weighing, you know, over a touchdown. But

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Speaker 4: Green Bay now up to twelve, So that shows you

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Speaker 4: how much that offense is kind of impacting the overall team,

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Speaker 4: and that's that's really what you need. So it's you know,

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Speaker 4: it's it's number four versus number twelve, which you know,

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Speaker 4: the line is implying that's a much bigger mismatch than that.

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Speaker 2: All right, for my first pick and the second overall

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Speaker 2: of the Wildcard weekend six pack, let's go prop Joe status.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go give them my prop here. I rarely

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Speaker 2: get the bet props unless it's the I really do,

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Speaker 2: unless it's the playoffs. I'm going with cad Oughton Monday Night,

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Speaker 2: Kate Otten over twenty one and a half receiving yards.

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Speaker 2: That's the official pick for the six pack. But I

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Speaker 2: split up my bet in three because I'm going to

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Speaker 2: explain all three over twenty one and a half seving

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Speaker 2: arts is one I like the most, but I also

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Speaker 2: played over two and a half catches and longest catch

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Speaker 2: over eleven and a half yards, So I'll i'll explain

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Speaker 2: all three here. Number one, the Eagles cannot defend tight

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Speaker 2: ends to save their lives. On this season, they allowed

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Speaker 2: four point eight catches on average and at about fifty

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Speaker 2: yards to tight ends per game. That includes a Dolphins game.

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Speaker 2: Dolphins don't use tight ends and they had no yards

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Speaker 2: in that game. But since Week eight they have injuries

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Speaker 2: on the back end. Matt Patricia took over. The defense

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Speaker 2: has lost everyone's out of the sign that there's injuries.

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Speaker 2: They're thirty first in EPA per play on defense since

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Speaker 2: week nine. But since Week eight, the Eagles have a

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Speaker 2: lot opposing tight ends averaged five point eight receptions for

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Speaker 2: fifty eight yards. Also with the big plays and Aughton

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Speaker 2: who has get over eleven and a half longest reception

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Speaker 2: and aughten did. Eagles, for what it's worth, have about

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Speaker 2: twenty two completions of the season in seventeen games of

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Speaker 2: at least twelve yards to opposing tight ends. Over the

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Speaker 2: past six games that number nine eight of those of

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Speaker 2: over twenty. There's a good chance he goes over his

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Speaker 2: reception yards and over his longest reception with just one catch,

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Speaker 2: and you know he's look, Kayauen is not great by

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Speaker 2: any stretch, but Kaydaden has thirteen catches on the season

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Speaker 2: of at least twelve yards. So in seventeen games he

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Speaker 2: has thirteen catches at least twelve yards, and he's he

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Speaker 2: has fifty targets over his last eleven games. There's no

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Speaker 2: real other tight end. He's gonna be on the field

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Speaker 2: most of the game. And here's why I think he'll

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Speaker 2: get in look Philly can't defense tight ends. But here's

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Speaker 2: why I think he potentially might even get more looks.

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Speaker 2: And why Philly's production is going down against tight ends.

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Speaker 2: Not only a their injuries read blanket ship. His production's

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Speaker 2: falling off a cliff. But the Eagles offense right now

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Speaker 2: is a mess. Right Hertz might be banged up, AJ

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Speaker 2: Brown is banged up. They can't figure out how defense

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Speaker 2: is have adjusted to them. The play calling is a mess.

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Speaker 2: So what does that mean? Less efficient offense means more

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Speaker 2: snaps for the opposition. And you know in the past,

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Speaker 2: you go back to that Rams game for example, the

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Speaker 2: Rams they don't have the ball the entire game because

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Speaker 2: the Eagles can just keep it and their offense is humming.

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Speaker 2: But not only that, when the Bucks do have the ball,

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Speaker 2: Baker's banged up, This offensive line might not be able

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Speaker 2: to hold up against the pass rush. And Tampa's a

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Speaker 2: bottom five rushing offense might not be able to run

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Speaker 2: in this game. So I don't think they're gonna have

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Speaker 2: much success in the ground. So it's going to leave

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Speaker 2: a lot of passing downs and potentially it might even

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Speaker 2: throw in some weather Mayfield having to get rid of

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Speaker 2: the ball quick. So with all the focus on Godwin

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Speaker 2: and Evans, I think Gotten can really take advantage. I

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Speaker 2: think this number is too low, so I'm going over

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Speaker 2: twenty one and a half receiving yards. I also played

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Speaker 2: some over two and a half catches. Longest catch over

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Speaker 2: eleven and a half yards. You could find out there,

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Speaker 2: curious to get your thoughts on this one, because you

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Speaker 2: would know way better than me. But that's what I

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Speaker 2: dug into and found.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so I actually shouted out and as you know,

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Speaker 4: the tight end that I'm high on one of the

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Speaker 4: best DFS values, because I agree, I think his number

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Speaker 4: at twenty one and a half, you know that's pretty

274
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Speaker 4: low considering he's, like you said, on the field almost

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Speaker 4: every snap. He's averaging a route participation rate of ninety

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Speaker 4: three percent over his last six games, and that's you know,

277
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Speaker 4: for the season, he's right around ninety percent. So he's

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Speaker 4: he's missing maybe one or two plays or blocking on

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Speaker 4: maybe one or two plays. I should say he's gone

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Speaker 4: for twenty seven or more seven of his last twelve games. So,

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Speaker 4: like the everything kind of points to being like this

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Speaker 4: guy who's you know, no one's really gonna pay attention

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Speaker 4: to him. No, it's he's not sexy, he's not a

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Speaker 4: big play guy. But like you said, you know, as

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Speaker 4: Matt Patricia, he is from the Belichick school, probably gonna

286
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Speaker 4: sell out a little more than even most defenses do

287
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Speaker 4: to try to take away Mike Evans. Also, like you said,

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Speaker 4: Baker's gonna have to get the ball out quick. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: I think aton I have them at twenty seven yards,

290
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Speaker 4: so I think they the one you're playing for the

291
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Speaker 4: contest is probably the best value I have him. I

292
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Speaker 4: have him at two point eight catches, so that's like

293
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Speaker 4: slight lean to the you know, to the to the

294
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Speaker 4: over two and a half. But I think there's more

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Speaker 4: value on the on the yardage. So I like this one,

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Speaker 4: and I was actually curious before we move on, just

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Speaker 4: your general thoughts on this Eagle team. I mean, what

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Speaker 4: do you think the chances are the Eagles just like,

299
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Speaker 4: don't have a J Brown, don't have Devonte Smith banged up,

300
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Speaker 4: Hurts bad, Like, what do you think the Eagles? Just

301
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Speaker 4: chances are the Egles just face plant here?

302
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Speaker 2: The Bucks aren't good. I would love to fade the Eagles. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: they're a mess on both sides of the ball. Just

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Speaker 2: talked about their defense, their offense too, as I mean

305
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Speaker 2: AJ Brown, the big plays aren't there. Hurts has declined

306
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Speaker 2: they can't figure out to pick up Blitz. But you know,

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Speaker 2: this team went to the Super Bowl last year. This

308
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Speaker 2: is a chance to like hit the reset button going

309
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Speaker 2: into the postseason. And we saw the same exact situation

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Speaker 2: last season. You never want to overreact to the NFL.

311
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Speaker 2: The Cowboys were in the Eagle shoes. They had to

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Speaker 2: win and then hope the Eagles lost. But they knew

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Speaker 2: that the Eagles are probably gonna win, and they went

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Speaker 2: up to Washington laid an egg lost twenty six to six.

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Speaker 2: Dak had his worst game ever. Well, what happened the

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Speaker 2: next week because of that, Dallas had a good Tampa

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Speaker 2: Monday Night four five game, and Dak looked like prime

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Speaker 2: Joe Montana and had the best, one of the best

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Speaker 2: playof performances of all time, and everyone said Dallas thinks

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Speaker 2: and then Dallas rolled in that game. So I think

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Speaker 2: Philly will rally here. I think that they're like, this

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Speaker 2: is their ceiling though winning this game is more about

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Speaker 2: just the Bucks. But I think Sirianni will We'll play

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Speaker 2: the US against the world card and it could get

325
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Speaker 2: them by this week. But I think you'll get a

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Speaker 2: decent effort from them. Most likely they're going to Sant

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Speaker 2: fran and then the party's over. But I will say,

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Speaker 2: if they do like an Eggs Syrian, it might be

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Speaker 2: out the door. I think you're going a good effort.

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Speaker 2: I still think the Bucks can win this game, especially

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Speaker 2: getting the injuries, which is we'll talk about I guess

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Speaker 2: we're talking about it now, but we'll talk about our

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Speaker 2: money on dogs later, and I'll be going with Tampa there.

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Speaker 4: All right, Let's go to my second and the third

335
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Speaker 4: overall pick of the Super wild Card Weekend six pack,

336
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Speaker 4: going with the Miami Dolphins. Plus four at the Kansas

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Speaker 4: City Chiefs, and I just think the market is overreacting

338
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Speaker 4: to you know, Miami and the can't we can't be

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Speaker 4: good teams, and you know, they've got a couple of

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Speaker 4: injuries on defense.

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Speaker 3: I still think this is too many points.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean they got a lot, but all right,

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Speaker 4: so and I'll talk about that, but I just think

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Speaker 4: this is too many points, even with everything going on

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Speaker 4: with Miami, because first of all, now Miami out gaining

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Speaker 4: Kansas City in that first meeting UH sixty seven, lost

347
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Speaker 4: on a fluky Tyreek Hill fumble six and whatnot. Now

348
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Speaker 4: they've lost you know, Chubb and Phillips their top pass

349
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Speaker 4: rushers since then, which you know is obviously a concern.

350
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Speaker 4: But last week, without both of them, they were able

351
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Speaker 4: to pressure Josh Allen on twenty or forty four dropbacks

352
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Speaker 4: or forty four percent, which is a pretty high number.

353
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Speaker 3: They still held Buffalo to fourteen points.

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Speaker 4: You know, on offense, one of Buffalo's touchdowns came on

355
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Speaker 4: a Deontay Hardy ninety six yard park return, which not

356
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Speaker 4: very sustainable.

357
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Speaker 3: And the way this team matches.

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Speaker 4: Up with the Chiefs, I still think they have enough

359
00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:53,600
Speaker 4: on defense because you still have Ramsey, still have Holland

360
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:57,320
Speaker 4: in the back end, and this Chiefs team.

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Speaker 3: You know when there though, yeah, I mean they should.

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Speaker 3: They look like they're they're gone, Like I don't.

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Speaker 4: I don't like they've I mean, yeah, they're on the

364
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 4: injury report, but I think those guys are straight. But

365
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Speaker 4: my thing with the Chiefs is like everyone wants to

366
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Speaker 4: talk about how banged up the Dolphins are, which fine,

367
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Speaker 4: it's true, but let's not act like everything has been

368
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 4: a hasn't been a struggle for this chief team offensively

369
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Speaker 4: for the better part of you know, the second half

370
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Speaker 4: of the season, if not longer.

371
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Speaker 3: What happens when you get to the playoffs.

372
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Speaker 4: Teams are going to play more man coverage, especially if

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Speaker 4: you have weakness at receiver. Well, the Chiefs have two

374
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Speaker 4: dudes for she Rice and Travis Kelcey. Miami in that

375
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 4: first meeting held or she Rice to a season low

376
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Speaker 4: seventeen yards on two.

377
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Speaker 2: Causes they take him out of racket.

378
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Speaker 4: Yeah, and then Kelsey. They held Kelsey to a season

379
00:20:55,480 --> 00:21:01,160
Speaker 4: low fourteen yards. Right, So, so so you're taking those

380
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,520
Speaker 4: two guys away. You showed you can still get pressure

381
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:09,080
Speaker 4: last week without your top pass rushers. You showed that

382
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:13,200
Speaker 4: you could still you know, be competitive against a high

383
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:18,640
Speaker 4: powered offense in Buffalo on a road last week, and

384
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:23,000
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes averages a full adjusted net yard per attempt

385
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 4: at less against man coverage than zone. For this exact reason,

386
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:32,399
Speaker 4: after Kelsey and Rice, it's, you know, justin Watson's like

387
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 4: their best receiver against man covered.

388
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Speaker 3: That's not gonna cut it.

389
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 4: And for all the defense, for all your losing on

390
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:43,639
Speaker 4: defense for Miami, you didn't have a chan in that

391
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 4: first matchup. And this is gonna be a game that's

392
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Speaker 4: gonna be forecast in a single digit tempts, double digit

393
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 4: mile power wins, eight chans averaging seven point seven yards

394
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,440
Speaker 4: per touch, weeds all running backs, scoring on eight and

395
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Speaker 4: a half percent of his touches, Weeds all running backs.

396
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 4: And this Chiefs defense twenty seventh in DVOA against the run,

397
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Speaker 4: even though they've been good, you know, probably the best

398
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 4: defense of the Mahomes era, twenty seventh in DVOA against

399
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 4: the run, twenty first in DVOA on passes to running backs.

400
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:19,439
Speaker 4: So just having a chan regardless if Moster goes and

401
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:23,119
Speaker 4: he did practice Tuesday, and so did Jay, Yeah, so

402
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 4: and Wadle practice Tuesday as well, so that you could

403
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 4: have a full deck plus a Chan who you didn't

404
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,640
Speaker 4: have last game. But you know, the Dolphins are still

405
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:35,399
Speaker 4: the better run defense of the two. Chan is unlike

406
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,200
Speaker 4: any other guy player in this league in terms of

407
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 4: what he can do explosively right now from the running

408
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,640
Speaker 4: back position. Uh, you know his seven point seven yards

409
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 4: per touch. That's nearly two yards per touch more.

410
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 3: Than Christian McCaffrey.

411
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Speaker 4: So just to put it in perspective, now, obviously expect

412
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 4: them to regress, but that just shows you what a

413
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 4: big weapon they were missing. So I just don't when

414
00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 4: I look at this matchup like I if if all

415
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 4: they being equal, like a healthy Miami, I would have

416
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,919
Speaker 4: power rated about a point and a half above Kansas

417
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 4: City with all the injuries and everything that's going on,

418
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 4: and Kansas City being at home on long rest or

419
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 4: with the rest advantage because it you know, starts in

420
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 4: most of the starts didn't.

421
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 3: Play last week.

422
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 4: I still make this around like just inside of a

423
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 4: field goal. So I just think this four, this line

424
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,360
Speaker 4: of fours too many points. I think Miami's a live

425
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 4: dog in this spot. I just this Kansas City offense,

426
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 4: like if they have to score like Miami is still explosive.

427
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:38,440
Speaker 3: You still got tyreeth. We're gonna have a chance.

428
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:42,199
Speaker 4: If Kansas City has to score more than you know,

429
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 4: twenty one and they're averaging twenty one point eight, the

430
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 4: lowest of the Mahomes era their fifteenth in the league.

431
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 4: If they have to score more than by twenty one,

432
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 4: all bets are off, period. So I like Miami here

433
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 4: and trend wise wild card road dogs by a touchdown

434
00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 4: or less thirty and eighteen sixty three percent against the

435
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 4: spread over the last two decades, covering by just under

436
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 4: two points per game.

437
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:06,640
Speaker 3: To give me Miami plus four.

438
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 2: I like it now that this has gone way up,

439
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 2: But I like the Chiefs in the opener minus one

440
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:14,919
Speaker 2: and a half Koud does to anyone about that, I

441
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 2: did not, But yeah, this has gone too far now.

442
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 2: It's even with all of the injuries, and yeah, with

443
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 2: most dirt and Nate Chane's I think they're gonna come

444
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 2: out run auty game plan. You can run on the Chiefs,

445
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 2: take some shots off of play action. I do worry

446
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:32,880
Speaker 2: a little bit about, you know, Miami in cold weather,

447
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 2: but you're going to see a lot there. What ll

448
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,120
Speaker 2: win ten straight up since twenty seventeen below forty degrees.

449
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 2: It's a warm weather team. But they went up to

450
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,360
Speaker 2: Buffalo in the playoffs last year when it was cold

451
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,440
Speaker 2: McDaniel remember he was wearing the shirt that's like I'm

452
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 2: not cold, and they had Skylar Thompson. Then they lost

453
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 2: thirty four to thirty one to the Bills, So they

454
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 2: were in that game. So I mean, but I worried

455
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,679
Speaker 2: the Chiefs obviously more familiar with the conditions. They obviously

456
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,959
Speaker 2: got the rest last week while Mommy got more injuries

457
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 2: and you lost d and Ganko. Good, we'll see like

458
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 2: the whole secondary and Howard's still gonna be out. Howard

459
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 2: is an over overrated losses.

460
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:07,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, it might be handed a dish by some traction.

461
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 2: Like Kim and Affle are equal. Howard is washed. So

462
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 2: as long as you got Ramsey, because I agree, you

463
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 2: can take Ramsey put him on Rice bracket Kelsey, or

464
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 2: you can be like Kelsey's washed and just and just

465
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,360
Speaker 2: have You could have Ramsey one on one with Kelsey,

466
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 2: but I think they'll probably just take away Rice brack

467
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 2: at Kelsey again. Now, they were able to generate pressure

468
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,679
Speaker 2: last week because they blitzed a lot, which especially in

469
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 2: the second half once they started losing guys Fangio usually

470
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 2: doesn't do, but he didn't have any edge guys left

471
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 2: they got. There's two things I'm really interested to see

472
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 2: in this game. But one, will Fangio sit back and say,

473
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 2: we don't trust your receivers. We're gonna take away Rice,

474
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:50,160
Speaker 2: We're gonna take away Kelsey, you know, try to move

475
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 2: it down the field methodically, which the Chiefs have not

476
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 2: been able to do efficiently this season. Or is he

477
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 2: going to try to blitz to generate pressure. You know,

478
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,160
Speaker 2: you don't really want to blitz Mahomes, but I don't

479
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 2: know if they'll be able to generate pressure without that.

480
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 2: They are defensive edge rushers for this game. Man, if

481
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 2: this is twenty seventeen, I mean they signed Bruce Irvin

482
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 2: just justin Houston. At least guys these guys Urvin, who

483
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:20,159
Speaker 2: red Milik Reid. Oh yeah, but all these guys that

484
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 2: did sign have some history in fangio system, which is good,

485
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,360
Speaker 2: so they can come in and you know, maybe give

486
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,400
Speaker 2: ten ten or so ten to fifteen snaps. I am

487
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:35,919
Speaker 2: interested to see does Kansas City because the depth on

488
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 2: Miami's defensive line is so bad now they try to

489
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 2: address it, they're gonna bring in like you know, how

490
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 2: old is Pruce iervans like thirty seven. Does Kansas City

491
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 2: go hurry up and try to wear out the thin

492
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 2: Miami defensive front. I don't know. It's a possibility. Keeps

493
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 2: me off the under because the way I see Miami

494
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 2: going with a really run heavy game plan, the Kansas

495
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:03,400
Speaker 2: City offense is just stuck in the mud, freezing conditions outdoors.

496
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 2: Outdoor wildcard unders have been a cash cow in the past,

497
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 2: But because I think Kansas City could potentially go hurry

498
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 2: up here and then you could get some Miami explosives,

499
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 2: I'm staying away from the total all right. For my

500
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 2: second pick in the fourth overall of the wild Card

501
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 2: Weekend six pack, I'm going with the Houston Texans Cleveland

502
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 2: Browns over forty four and a half. I mentioned Wildcard

503
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 2: Weekend outdoor unders, which have gone fifty one to thirty

504
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 2: five close to sixty percent of the past twenty years.

505
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,359
Speaker 2: Indoors overs eleven and eight fast track here for what

506
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,120
Speaker 2: it's worth. The Browns on the road this year eight

507
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,920
Speaker 2: to no to the over by fifteen points per game.

508
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 2: They're also the number one most profitable team total over

509
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 2: team in the NFL. But here's why I like this

510
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 2: over so I don't. I think it should be over

511
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:55,920
Speaker 2: forty five at the minimum. The Browns now with Joe Flacco,

512
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 2: they've gone from a bottom five pass expos of offense

513
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 2: to a top five. They're now played fast and just

514
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,639
Speaker 2: chuck it all over. I mean, this is an explosive

515
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 2: passing offense with Flaco. They're going up against the Texans

516
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 2: defense that can stop the run, can't stop the pass.

517
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 3: Except last week.

518
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 4: Last week they could not stop the run for I

519
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 4: don't know what the fucked out.

520
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know what was going on last week.

521
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 2: But their pass defense numbers are horrific and Stefanski smart,

522
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 2: he's just throwing it all over anyway. I expect that

523
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 2: to continue. So I expect Cleveland pass heavy script. There's

524
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:35,400
Speaker 2: going to be some explosive passing plays. I And look

525
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 2: this Houston defense, even their pass defense numbers are bad.

526
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 2: And here's here's what they faced. They faced one top

527
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 2: ten EPA offense all year. That was Baltimore in Week one.

528
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 2: That's it, and that was a new first game of

529
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 2: a new scheme. They still lost I think twenty five

530
00:28:56,000 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 2: to eight. They've only faced two others in the top

531
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 2: thirteen Tampa, right or the explosive Bucks, which is number twelve.

532
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 2: Tampa put up thirty seven in Houston, and the Bengals,

533
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 2: who scored twenty seven. That's it. Here are the other

534
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 2: offenses that they faced. The Titans twice, the Jags twice,

535
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 2: the Colts twice, the Steelers, Falcons, Jets, Broncos, Cardinals, Panthers, Saints,

536
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 2: and Browns who are you know, bottom tier EPA offense

537
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 2: but not with since Blaco's taken over, and the Browns

538
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 2: with Flacco put up thirty six in the stadium a

539
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 2: few weeks ago. The Browns are gonna score in this game.

540
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 2: On the other side of the ball, the Browns defense

541
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 2: number one, it's not healthy. Maybe they'll get dealt with

542
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 2: back or they're not healthy at safety. They lost Walker,

543
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 2: they lost some defensive line pieces, and it's not the

544
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 2: same unit away from home. This is the team that's

545
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 2: given up thirty points per game on the road on average.

546
00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 2: They've given up twenty two or more in every game

547
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 2: in alluding against Houston, who had case Keenum at quarterback,

548
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 2: and they still got to twenty two. His Brown's defense

549
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 2: is not the same on the road Stroud, I think

550
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 2: we'll hit some explosive pass play. He's gonna throw downfield.

551
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 2: It's an aggressive Browns defense. I think he's gonna have

552
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 2: opportunities hit some big plays. So I think we're gonna

553
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 2: get some explosive passing plays. I am curious to see

554
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 2: what Houston does to slow down Cooper, so I would

555
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 2: imagine there's probably value on Cooper under I don't know.

556
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 2: I haven't been looking to even look at the numbers,

557
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 2: but Cooper went for two sixty five, so they do

558
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 2: they shadow him with Stingley, I'm guessing and put and

559
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 2: then say someone else beat us and the joke who

560
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 2: probably has a huge game. I would imagine maybe more

561
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 2: as a couple explosives, but Flacco was more than happy

562
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 2: to spread it around. But I'm curious to just to

563
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 2: see what Houston does, like do they overreact to what

564
00:30:55,640 --> 00:31:00,040
Speaker 2: Cooper does and that opens up some other things. But

565
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 2: I think that both both offenses should have some explosive

566
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 2: passing place, which is what you want for an over

567
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 2: fast track. Here would normally be concerned about Stroud, like

568
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 2: being an experienced first playoffs start, but it's at home.

569
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 2: Like I said, he had a basically road playoff start

570
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 2: last year, and he's just head and shoulders above rookie

571
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:23,400
Speaker 2: quarterbacks that normally are in this situation that fail and

572
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 2: have horrific stats. Flaco obviously has plenty of experience. So yeah,

573
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 2: I think that we're gonna get a ninth straight Brown's

574
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 2: road over give me over forty four and a half.

575
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 4: I struggled just with this matchup in general. I'm kind

576
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:42,479
Speaker 4: of going back and forth because like, at first glance,

577
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 4: the total does look low, but then I'm like, Okay, Flaco,

578
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 4: he's been like Houston is like predominantly zone team, Like

579
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 4: he has been like significantly worse against zone coverage, like

580
00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 4: a seventy four rating and four point eight adjust the

581
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 4: net yards in attempt against zone ninety five ratings seven

582
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 4: point four against man. But I also, but then, like

583
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 4: you said, what like if they're gonna put Stingley on Cooper,

584
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 4: Like what the hell are they doing to Cooper last matchup?

585
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 4: Like Stingly did cover them I think on five of

586
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 4: his targets. Now you had what like fifteen targets, Stingley

587
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 4: covered him on five of them, gave up a touchdown

588
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 4: forty three catches forty three yards.

589
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 3: So like that, you know that.

590
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:29,959
Speaker 2: They're also gonna say wardon Thomas now too.

591
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 4: We're both yeah, yeah they should get We'll see about.

592
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 3: Greenerd like they need some they need more pass around.

593
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 2: Greener Anderson aren't fully healthy. Yeah, that doesn't help. They're

594
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 2: not getting the same edge rush. I think they'll both

595
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 2: probably play, but I don't think that they'll be at

596
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 2: one hundred percent, which has also hurt their past defense numbers.

597
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 2: But it is just amazing that this they faced one

598
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 2: top eleven EPA offense all season.

599
00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 4: I just yeah, you know the Texans obviously, you know

600
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 4: you're field under, a field goal dog, obviously a live

601
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 4: dog at home in the playoffs. But I do worry

602
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:14,440
Speaker 4: in this matchup more than the last one, about the

603
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 4: health of Strouds non Nico Cowens receivers, because like Noah

604
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 4: Brown seems like he's still banged up.

605
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 3: Woods, I mean he's you.

606
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 4: Really have like Woods has been a non factor even

607
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 4: when he's healthy. Mechi non factor, Hutchinson non factor, bottom line.

608
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 4: I could see it going either way, but I mean,

609
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 4: you got Joe Flacco chucking it deep all day. Good

610
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 4: for probably a turnover, and you got one of the

611
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 4: best quarterbacks in the game on the other side, so

612
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 4: I can't say I hate it, but yeah, I'm still

613
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 4: kind of undecided where what I'm doing with this one.

614
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 3: All right?

615
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 4: For my third pick and the fifth overall of the

616
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 4: Super wild Card Weekend six pack, I'm going with Jalen

617
00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 4: Warren under nine and a half carries. This will be

618
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:03,000
Speaker 4: my prop for the show. And I love when you

619
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 4: have like kind of two extreme matchups meeting because I

620
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 4: think that makes it harder for the market to kind

621
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 4: of properly adjust, and usually that's usually where you.

622
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 3: Find some value.

623
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:17,440
Speaker 4: So on one hand, you've got this new look Bill's offense.

624
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 4: It's a lot more run heavy. They're running on fifty

625
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,760
Speaker 4: two percent of their plays under Brady compared to forty

626
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 4: one percent under Dorsey. So what that's done is their

627
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:31,879
Speaker 4: opponent average time of possession for Buffalo, their opponents went

628
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 4: from averaging just over thirty minutes of time of possession

629
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 4: to just under twenty six, you know, with Brady, and

630
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 4: they're averaging only fifty six plays and sixteen backfield carries

631
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 4: per game since Dorsey was fired. So that is in

632
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 4: stark contrast to Jaymen Warren and the Steelers, who since

633
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:03,120
Speaker 4: they fired their offensive coordinator, they've been averaging, you know,

634
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 4: nearly thirty backfield carries per game and Jalen Warren's averaging

635
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:10,880
Speaker 4: nine point nine.

636
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:14,800
Speaker 3: Carries since they fired Canada.

637
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 4: But he's been under ten in four of the last seven.

638
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 4: And that's with the Steelers holding the ball for an

639
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 4: average of thirty two and a half minutes, running sixty

640
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 4: two and a half plays, and handing the ball off

641
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 4: twenty eight times per game. So you got the Steers

642
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 4: adding off twenty eight times per game, holding the ball

643
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 4: for thirty two and a half minutes, you got Buffalo

644
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:41,360
Speaker 4: allowing only sixteen handoffs per game and unlimiting opponents to

645
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:44,800
Speaker 4: twenty less than twenty six minutes of time and possession.

646
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 4: So essentially, what I'm trying to say is the Steelers

647
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 4: Warren's barely like this is kind of Warren's median or

648
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 4: a little under it even with the circumstances of the

649
00:35:57,040 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 4: last few games. Before you even factor in this, before

650
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 4: you factor in the fact that they're ten point underdogs,

651
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:08,440
Speaker 4: and also Naji Harris his emergence has kind of relegated

652
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,959
Speaker 4: Warren to more of his initial role this season, which

653
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:13,920
Speaker 4: was kind of a change of pace, and you know,

654
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:18,360
Speaker 4: heavy on the pass snaps. Last three games, Nase seventy

655
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 4: two carries, three hundred and twelve yards four tuddies. That

656
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 4: has relegated Warren to just twenty nine percent of the

657
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,479
Speaker 4: backfield carries but seventy four percent of the pass snap.

658
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 4: So it's you just have all these factors that kind

659
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 4: of point to if Pittsburgh does hang close and you know,

660
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 4: kind of surprises us, Nase is going to be the

661
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 4: main beneficiary at this point because you can't you know,

662
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 4: he's the hot hand.

663
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 3: He's kind of forced to coach his hand.

664
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:45,360
Speaker 4: If the opposite rings true, and you know Pittsburgh doesn't

665
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 4: have many possessions, is it at a deficit? Warren will

666
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 4: get more snaps, but they'll likely be passes.

667
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 3: So I like this one from a number of angles.

668
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 4: And you know, you know, with Pittsburgh being a ten

669
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 4: point dog, it's worth noting that at Warren averaging nine

670
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 4: point eight carries per game and wins seven point three

671
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 4: in losses, and that's generally what you expect of, you know,

672
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 4: a non featured running back. You know, two and a

673
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 4: half carries per game less in losses. I think Buffalo

674
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 4: should be able to take care of business here. The

675
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 4: last time they played Pittsburgh it was a thirty eight

676
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 4: to three win for Buffalo. I believe it was in

677
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:28,839
Speaker 4: sometime early twenty twenty two. So like this, Warren under

678
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 4: nine and a half even juiced up, I would prefer it.

679
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:34,400
Speaker 4: You know, you might see an eight and a half

680
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 4: at plus money. That's you know, there's a little bit

681
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 4: of value there if you can get it at better

682
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 4: than even money. But at under nine and a half,

683
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 4: this should hit about two thirds of the time, so

684
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 4: you know, books probably won't juice it to even pass

685
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 4: like minus one point eighty before dropping. But I wouldn't

686
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 4: hesitate to play under nine and a half at any

687
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 4: juice eight and a half.

688
00:37:57,400 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 3: You'd have to be getting better than even money.

689
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 4: Javin Warren under nine and a half carries at the

690
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 4: Buffalo boos like it.

691
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:08,759
Speaker 2: I wanted to lay up with Buffalo if you can

692
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 2: get under ten or under ten pops, But I cannot

693
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 2: bet it now. There's so much weather uncertainty and the

694
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 2: Lake effect and how bad are the wind's going to be.

695
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 2: There could also be snow it might have put up

696
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 2: a snow over people. I should remind everyone what snowvers are. Snowver.

697
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 2: Here are the qualifications. There has to be the perfect

698
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 2: amount of snow on the ground. Can't be too much.

699
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 2: If it's like a foot, you can't move, But it

700
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:33,360
Speaker 2: ask to be like a slippery surface. You can't have

701
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 2: too much wind, so wind will kill any you know

702
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:39,440
Speaker 2: over and then the market comes down because of the

703
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 2: weather right before kick and then that's when you bet

704
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 2: the over. But you can't have any wind, so like

705
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 2: it's just you need the right conditions and then the

706
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 2: market to come down and then you can get a

707
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 2: better number. I don't think we'll have a snow be

708
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:51,480
Speaker 2: because you could have. The other night of Buffalo, there

709
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 2: was sixty to seventy mile on our wind gus with

710
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 2: the lake effects, it's so hard to predict. Five days out.

711
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:58,839
Speaker 2: We'll recording this on Wednesday, so I got to see

712
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:00,839
Speaker 2: how bad these winds are gonna because do you remember

713
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 2: the game against the Patriots and the Patriots just threw

714
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 2: it one yeah, yeah Monday night, Like you could see

715
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 2: Josh Allo could still make some throws, but it becomes

716
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 2: extremely difficult to even throw the ball to kick the

717
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 2: ball when the wins get to that level. So I

718
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 2: need to wait on clear weather report. If it gets

719
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 2: real bad, it's definitely edge to the Steelers. It just

720
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 2: creates way more variance. But they will miss Watt bad.

721
00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 2: I mean he could change a game with a play,

722
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 2: and their defensive numbers with him without him are bad.

723
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 2: Gotta wait on the weather there for that one. For

724
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:34,879
Speaker 2: my third pick in the sixth overall of the wild

725
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:37,720
Speaker 2: Card Weekend six pack, I'm going with the Detroit Lions

726
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 2: minus three. Hello Detroit. I didn't think I'd be going here,

727
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 2: but I dug into this game, and then once this

728
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 2: line came back down to three, I think Lions fans,

729
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 2: I think you're winning on Sunday Night. Here are the reasons.

730
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 2: Number One, you have to pray Matt Stafford to throw

731
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 2: them off. You have to stop their run game. In

732
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 2: Karen Williams, Lions can stop the run. Lions can generate

733
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:11,720
Speaker 2: pressure number one in the NFL and pressure rate Hurry

734
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:14,880
Speaker 2: Ray quarterback knockdown rate. Now they didn't translate to a

735
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,240
Speaker 2: lot of sacks. That's not really predictive. They can pressure

736
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 2: the quarterback. They can stop the run. Now are they

737
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:23,120
Speaker 2: going to be able to stop and cover Nikua and Cup,

738
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 2: of course not their owners are not good enough. But

739
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:28,799
Speaker 2: they also have McNeil back who helps a ton all

740
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 2: across the board. But they got CJ. Garno Johnson back.

741
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 2: The Rams are gonna hit their plays, but Stafford forty

742
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:36,799
Speaker 2: three percent completion percentage under pressure. I think they're going

743
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 2: to pressure them. The crowd is going to be an

744
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:43,359
Speaker 2: electric factory. It's gonna mess with the snap count. You're

745
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,319
Speaker 2: gonna probably get a couple extra calls here. And on

746
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 2: the other side of the ball. Did Lions have just

747
00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 2: as big of an advantage, I think more so than

748
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 2: the Rams because the Rams can't get pressure. They can

749
00:40:56,560 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 2: block Donald and I don't see how this Rams defense

750
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 2: is gonna get many stops. And then the wild card

751
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:06,640
Speaker 2: special teams, the Rams special teams are going to be

752
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 2: the reason that they exit the playoffs. I've said it

753
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:13,320
Speaker 2: all season. They will give away something on the road

754
00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:17,799
Speaker 2: and their special their impover special teams. They're gonna miss

755
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 2: two kicks, They're probably gonna give up a big return,

756
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 2: get a punt block. Something will happen which you cannot

757
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:25,839
Speaker 2: ever come on the road. But I think Lions can

758
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 2: stop Karen Williams can pressure Stafford enough to get enough stops,

759
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 2: and which should be a higher scoring game. And I

760
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,440
Speaker 2: don't see all the Rams generate many stops because they

761
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 2: don't get pressure Goff's indoors and what their scheme that

762
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 2: they play. Goffs should be able to pick them apart

763
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 2: and report it or not. They also should be able

764
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:48,399
Speaker 2: to run the ball on the Rams. This Rams team,

765
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:50,760
Speaker 2: I think is over to everyone's calling them a sleeper

766
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:53,400
Speaker 2: win the Super Bowl. I do not see it. They

767
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 2: over overachieved this year. Credit the McVeigh, credit to Stafford

768
00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 2: Nakula Cup. Amazing to watch that offense when it's coming.

769
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:05,840
Speaker 2: But let's remove the game where everyone sat their starters

770
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 2: at the end. Other than that, they went one in

771
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:10,880
Speaker 2: six against playoff teams this year. The one win was

772
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:13,440
Speaker 2: against the Browns at home, who had a ton of injuries.

773
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 2: Ward Garrett all were hurt and Flaccos that the first start,

774
00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 2: that's it, and they were blown out by a bunch

775
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 2: of other teams. Remember this is a team that lost

776
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 2: to the Steelers and they should have lost at the

777
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:27,239
Speaker 2: Giants a couple of weeks ago. Everyone's putting too much

778
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 2: weight into that game up Baltimore. They did so much

779
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:33,919
Speaker 2: of their damage analytically against the Seahawks and Cardinals, which

780
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 2: have just boosted their numbers astronomically. Still a bad defense,

781
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 2: still horrendous special teams unit. I think the Lions, because

782
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:46,720
Speaker 2: they can protect better and the Rams don't get pressure,

783
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 2: they'll be able to sustain more drives than the than

784
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 2: the Rams and special teams Campbell. I think we'll also

785
00:42:57,360 --> 00:43:02,680
Speaker 2: have more positive aggressive decisions at mcday in the spot

786
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 2: throwing the home crowd get a couple of calls loud

787
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:09,240
Speaker 2: Rocus caused some false starts to I think the Lions

788
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:11,319
Speaker 2: win at three their play three and a half, they

789
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 2: wouldn't have been, but I think the Lions get it done.

790
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 3: Yeah.

791
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 4: The more I dig into this one, the more it

792
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,240
Speaker 4: sounds crazy to say, but I I am a little

793
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 4: bit worried about that Rams offense too, because I kind

794
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 4: of broke it down and I like to look at Okay,

795
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 4: you know it's the playoffs, which defenses Mate might man

796
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:34,840
Speaker 4: up and the Lions. I mean, do you think the

797
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:37,799
Speaker 4: Lions will be willing to play some man coverage now

798
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:39,840
Speaker 4: with their secondary a little bit healthier?

799
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 2: I think so. I think they're gonna hr right, yeah.

800
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:44,040
Speaker 4: Because they Yeah, they've been kind of in the top

801
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:47,240
Speaker 4: half of the week anyway. But if you look at

802
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:52,799
Speaker 4: Stafford and this receiving court against man versus zone, Stafford

803
00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:56,959
Speaker 4: over a yard per attempt better versus zone.

804
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 2: If you don't pressure of Stafford and you're in zones,

805
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 2: you're done.

806
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, But the Lions don't have to do that. They

807
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 3: can play Man. And if you look at the y.

808
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, and if you look at the now you go

809
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 4: to the receiving corps and you say, okay, well, how

810
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:13,080
Speaker 4: is this coming about? You know, because it's not just

811
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:16,800
Speaker 4: a quarterback. It's because of you know, the combination of receivers.

812
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 4: And luckily with the Rams, they play the same guy

813
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:20,759
Speaker 4: as almost every snap, so you kind of know what

814
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 4: you're gonna get. You're gonna get in the KUPA Cup

815
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:28,839
Speaker 4: and Robinson Higbee and then Williams so against man coverage

816
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:34,000
Speaker 4: yards per route Hookah two point eight against man, which

817
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:36,279
Speaker 4: is elite, and two point nine against zone. So he's

818
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 4: the he's really the only one that is good against man.

819
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:44,040
Speaker 4: Cooper Cup really struggle to seear against man. One point

820
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:46,640
Speaker 4: four yards a rout against man two point two against zone.

821
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 4: Robinson two point three against zone, but only one yard

822
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 4: per route against man. Higbee one yard per out against man.

823
00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:57,920
Speaker 4: That's that's not good any like we want to try

824
00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:00,319
Speaker 4: to get to like one and a half. U one

825
00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 4: is bad and he's he's better against zone two as

826
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 4: most tight ends are. I mean, like you said, they'll

827
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:07,440
Speaker 4: probably give up some plays by doing it. But I

828
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 4: just wonder if they say to hell with it and

829
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 4: just come out in a man heavy scheme, live with

830
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:15,799
Speaker 4: you know, a couple of explosives and have confidence in

831
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:18,800
Speaker 4: her offense against like you said, a defense that doesn't

832
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:22,560
Speaker 4: get pressure to just outscore whatever, you know, explosives they

833
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:25,759
Speaker 4: allow by playing man. Because so yeah, the more I

834
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 4: look in it, I do think Detroit is the right

835
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:37,320
Speaker 4: side here. Try any thoughts on the total.

836
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:38,640
Speaker 3: It's fifty one and a half.

837
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 2: I'd lean over, but it's so high. Yeah, you just

838
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:44,279
Speaker 2: need everything to go right in a playoff game where

839
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:47,760
Speaker 2: could people teams could be tight, coaches could get conservative.

840
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:50,480
Speaker 2: You also have the Campbell fourth down variants.

841
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:53,600
Speaker 4: And the Bretton not her variants for the like her ams.

842
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 4: That's that like they're missing at the one kick. It's

843
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 4: just do they get like a punt block or some

844
00:45:57,080 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 4: other ridiculous that I give the points back.

845
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:01,000
Speaker 2: I think it's about right. I was good. I want

846
00:46:01,000 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 2: to be over, but fifty one and a half it's tough,

847
00:46:03,600 --> 00:46:04,080
Speaker 2: all right.

848
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 3: That is going to do it.

849
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:11,800
Speaker 4: For our super Wildcard weekend six pack. To recap, stuck

850
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:15,760
Speaker 4: has cade Atton over twenty one and a half receiving yards,

851
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:20,920
Speaker 4: the Browns Texans over forty four and a half, Lions

852
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 4: minus three at home against the Rams. I have the

853
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,440
Speaker 4: Packers plus seven and a half at Dallas Miami, plus

854
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 4: four at Kansas City, and Jamn Warren under nine and

855
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:38,719
Speaker 4: a half carries at Buffalo. All right, that was our

856
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 4: wild Card Weekend six pack. Now it's time for our

857
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:42,600
Speaker 4: coaches pep talk.

858
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:48,319
Speaker 3: Playoffs. Don't talk about playoffs, you kidding me? Playoffs.

859
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 4: This week's coaches pep talk comes from actor Will Ferrell,

860
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:56,600
Speaker 4: and let's dedicate it to the Kansas City Chiefs offense

861
00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 4: because it's been a struggle.

862
00:46:58,239 --> 00:46:58,439
Speaker 3: Man.

863
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:02,840
Speaker 2: This is so and it's horseshit, But I'm too polite

864
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 2: to say anything because I'm a class act.

865
00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 4: This version of their offense for one more week. I

866
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:09,680
Speaker 4: hope it continues to be a struggle.

867
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:11,840
Speaker 2: But then we got to set the Dolphins by the

868
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:12,440
Speaker 2: Bills again.

869
00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 3: I mean, you gotta beat him at some point, right, Like.

870
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:19,959
Speaker 2: The future Bills just match up very well with the Dolphins. Yeah,

871
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 2: they do, so I think I'd rather see chees Chiefs

872
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:26,479
Speaker 2: by the Chiefs always whenever the layover fielder they never covered.

873
00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 2: The Chiefs by a field goal is like such a

874
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:32,360
Speaker 2: likely result in this game, Like Dolphins are up for late,

875
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 2: Mahomes leads a drive, but your field or you know,

876
00:47:37,760 --> 00:47:40,280
Speaker 2: it's tied, and Bucker hits like a fifty seven yarder

877
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 2: to win it.

878
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:43,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, after some refereation andagans.

879
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, Chiefs by three is very likely here.

880
00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 4: Let's uh so, we're obviously not going to do total

881
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 4: favorite total of the week because we did that in

882
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:55,400
Speaker 4: uh well, totals were eligible, but I guess we have

883
00:47:55,520 --> 00:47:58,239
Speaker 4: well yeah, so favorite tote of the week, if you

884
00:47:58,239 --> 00:48:01,920
Speaker 4: want to go off the six packs is Stuckies Browns

885
00:48:02,040 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 4: Texans over forty four and a half.

886
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:05,719
Speaker 3: That's the only total in our six pack.

887
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:09,759
Speaker 4: No teasers numbers where I think you're better off just

888
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:10,680
Speaker 4: playing them straight up.

889
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 2: If you wanted to teaser, the only real option would

890
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:18,360
Speaker 2: be Dallas down. But the totals high, so it's not ideal.

891
00:48:20,600 --> 00:48:23,880
Speaker 2: And then with Houston up over thy seven but not

892
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 2: a good teaser, we can I'm not playing any teasers.

893
00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's just it's better off.

894
00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:30,560
Speaker 4: You're better off just you know, kind of capping them

895
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 4: and betting them when you know, think individually. All right,

896
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:38,920
Speaker 4: So that means with no teaser and no total segment,

897
00:48:39,040 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 4: we're gonna jump right into our Underdog Moneyline Parlay. But first,

898
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 4: as a reminder, the Action Network podcast is presented by

899
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:49,879
Speaker 4: bet MGM, and you can use Bonus code Action when

900
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:53,520
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904
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:09,799
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905
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:14,440
Speaker 4: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. All right, Underdog

906
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 4: money Line Parlay.

907
00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 1: Time turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

908
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:24,880
Speaker 1: the money line Parlay.

909
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:28,920
Speaker 2: I've mentioned earlier in the show. Bucks just a lot

910
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:32,440
Speaker 2: of variance with the Eagles, like what's going on with

911
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:35,839
Speaker 2: their play calling, the locker room, and the injuries, like

912
00:49:36,200 --> 00:49:39,560
Speaker 2: who's healthy on their offense. I show a little bit

913
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:42,279
Speaker 2: of value in the spread too, So yeah, let's roll

914
00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:45,000
Speaker 2: with the Bucks. Home dogs for what It's worth have

915
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:48,839
Speaker 2: been very successful in the NFL playoffs historically, so have

916
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:52,400
Speaker 2: double digit favorites. Two of them in play for what

917
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 2: It's worth. Past ten postseason home owner Ducks eight three

918
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:59,120
Speaker 2: and two against the spread. Will double digit favorites are

919
00:49:59,120 --> 00:50:01,919
Speaker 2: going eleven and four spread. A lot of times people

920
00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:04,200
Speaker 2: want to take the double digit dog in the playoffs,

921
00:50:05,200 --> 00:50:08,240
Speaker 2: but usually there's a reason why they're a double digit underdog.

922
00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:11,279
Speaker 2: But yeah, let's go out the Bucks. Where you're going.

923
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:15,799
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with the Texans plus one twenty and

924
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 4: you know, kind of slimmer similar situation, a lot of variants,

925
00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:21,879
Speaker 4: a lot of ways this could play out. I kind

926
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 4: of touched down it earlier, but you know, at the

927
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 4: end of the day, there might be a time in

928
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:33,320
Speaker 4: the very near future where we look back and say,

929
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:39,800
Speaker 4: like we were really favoring thirty nine year old ghost

930
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:41,320
Speaker 4: of Joe Flacco or CJ.

931
00:50:41,400 --> 00:50:42,439
Speaker 3: Stroud at home.

932
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:46,080
Speaker 4: So like, I just can't let I can't let this

933
00:50:46,160 --> 00:50:51,720
Speaker 4: podcast end without without fading Flacco, the ghost of Flaco

934
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:54,600
Speaker 4: on the road as well as he's been playing it.

935
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:59,560
Speaker 4: Just like the trajectory Stroud is on, this may look

936
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:00,879
Speaker 4: ridiculou sooner than later.

937
00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:02,800
Speaker 3: So and I mean, who knows this.

938
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:05,719
Speaker 4: You know, Flacco had five games, you know, you put

939
00:51:05,800 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 4: up and then he rested. This might be the top

940
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:10,720
Speaker 4: of the market for Flacco favored on the road against

941
00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:13,480
Speaker 4: like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. So

942
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:15,720
Speaker 4: I know it's his playoff debut, but like you said,

943
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:19,920
Speaker 4: he's not like most quarterbacks. So I think it's a perfect,

944
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:23,560
Speaker 4: perfect way to kind of invest because you know, two

945
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:24,360
Speaker 4: and a half really a.

946
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:25,000
Speaker 3: Ton of value.

947
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 4: I think it could go, Like I said, I think

948
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:29,239
Speaker 4: it could go either way. But in a coin flip game,

949
00:51:29,600 --> 00:51:30,759
Speaker 4: I'll take the money line dog.

950
00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:33,080
Speaker 3: So I had trying to go too in a row.

951
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:35,880
Speaker 4: Had the Giants at plus two hundred come through for

952
00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:38,799
Speaker 4: us last week. Finally I was on like a in

953
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:41,000
Speaker 4: a swamp. You're still up. You still have seven to

954
00:51:41,080 --> 00:51:43,839
Speaker 4: my four on the year. But hopefully I can make

955
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:45,319
Speaker 4: it two in a row and you can get back

956
00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 4: on track.

957
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:48,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that this is about the pro peak

958
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:50,440
Speaker 2: of the market on the Browns. The Browns and the

959
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:53,000
Speaker 2: Rams I think come into the playoffs over right, everyone's

960
00:51:53,040 --> 00:51:57,239
Speaker 2: like they're the sleepers. The Browns with Flacco have been

961
00:51:57,280 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 2: much better than throwing it all over. But look they

962
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:04,799
Speaker 2: got they lost to the Rams, they lost to the Broncos,

963
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:08,600
Speaker 2: and since then they beat the beat up Jags, who

964
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:10,600
Speaker 2: we've seen what the Jags at the end of the year,

965
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:13,319
Speaker 2: and they beat them thirty one to twenty seven. Then

966
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 2: they beat the Bears, and the Bears the chances to

967
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:18,560
Speaker 2: win that game, remember the drop early in the first

968
00:52:18,560 --> 00:52:22,759
Speaker 2: half of an eighty r touchdown. Then they beat the

969
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:25,400
Speaker 2: Texans with case Keenum. Then they beat the Jets with

970
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:29,399
Speaker 2: Trevor Simeon and then they lost to the with their

971
00:52:29,400 --> 00:52:33,439
Speaker 2: backups to Jake Browning. So like, who have they really

972
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:35,680
Speaker 2: beat during the stretch? Nobody?

973
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:40,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's just just I mean, the Texans really un

974
00:52:40,040 --> 00:52:41,960
Speaker 4: beating nobody either, But I guess they got they got

975
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:42,320
Speaker 4: a couple.

976
00:52:42,920 --> 00:52:43,560
Speaker 3: Who do they get?

977
00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 4: They got they got Cincinnati, and Cincinnati was probably as

978
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:48,840
Speaker 4: good as they were gonna get. But yeah, it's just

979
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:51,279
Speaker 4: I just I mean, like you said, last year, it

980
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:53,600
Speaker 4: was like, like, you go, it's gonna you're gonna look

981
00:52:53,640 --> 00:52:56,760
Speaker 4: back and regret fading Mahomes as like a Western three

982
00:52:57,000 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 4: point favorite or whatever. It's like, I just look at

983
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:05,440
Speaker 4: it like Stroud underdog at home against the ghost of

984
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:09,520
Speaker 4: Flacco who's played five games an underdog. Yeah, oh yeah,

985
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:12,440
Speaker 4: yeah sorry as an underdog. Yeah ye, but yeah say

986
00:53:12,560 --> 00:53:15,200
Speaker 4: kind of similar thing, like not trying to compare the two,

987
00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:17,920
Speaker 4: but Stroud is like one of the few quarters, Like

988
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:20,440
Speaker 4: I think my favorite quarterbacks to watch now, especially with

989
00:53:20,440 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 4: Mahomes having a like shaky year, it's probably been Stroud

990
00:53:24,719 --> 00:53:26,719
Speaker 4: number one and Jordan Love number.

991
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:31,840
Speaker 3: Two and then like dak I mean any like, oh no,

992
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:35,160
Speaker 3: Lamar Lamar. Sorry, I'm to getting Lamar. Yeah yeah, Lamar.

993
00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:35,839
Speaker 2: Who.

994
00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:39,400
Speaker 3: By the way, he's gonna win that MVP, right, yeah yeah,

995
00:53:39,640 --> 00:53:41,360
Speaker 3: did you do you ever? Did you get down to that?

996
00:53:41,480 --> 00:53:42,080
Speaker 3: Or yeah?

997
00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:42,879
Speaker 2: Fourteen to one?

998
00:53:43,120 --> 00:53:45,440
Speaker 3: Whoa, there we go and you got the Bill's.

999
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:47,920
Speaker 2: Future, right, Bravens tend to won Super Bowl and then

1000
00:53:47,920 --> 00:53:51,000
Speaker 2: Bill's fifty to one Super Bowl. The best part about

1001
00:53:51,040 --> 00:53:52,879
Speaker 2: that is the Bill's beating the Dolphins. They can't face

1002
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:55,400
Speaker 2: each other until the SC Championship, hopefully that's the matchup,

1003
00:53:55,440 --> 00:53:57,200
Speaker 2: and then lamar a fourteen to one MVP.

1004
00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:01,920
Speaker 3: So lovely. That is a wrap for us. Thanks for listening.

1005
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:05,600
Speaker 4: We'll be back here every Thursday throughout the NFL Playoffs.

1006
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 4: You can hear more of myself this week, but my guys,

1007
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:11,200
Speaker 4: Sean Kerner, the odds maker, talking Fantasy DFS Prize picks

1008
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:14,239
Speaker 4: all that good stuff on the Fantasy Flex Podcast. We

1009
00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:19,440
Speaker 4: also have our Player Projections episode right here on this channel.

1010
00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 4: You can hear Stuck talking college hoops over on the

1011
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:26,520
Speaker 4: Big Bets on Campus pod every Monday and Friday, and

1012
00:54:26,600 --> 00:54:29,680
Speaker 4: Stuck is on X at Stucky two. I'm at Chris

1013
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:32,520
Speaker 4: Raybon rat those same handles on the free award winning

1014
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:34,600
Speaker 4: Action Network app.

1015
00:54:34,680 --> 00:54:35,600
Speaker 3: Again, don't forget.

1016
00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:40,440
Speaker 4: We'll all be in Hoboken, New Jersey, Saturday and Sunday

1017
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 4: for wild Card Weekend. More information in the episode description.

1018
00:54:45,880 --> 00:54:49,080
Speaker 4: Make sure you are SVP if you're interested in attending.

1019
00:54:49,520 --> 00:54:57,719
Speaker 4: Until next time, Let's get this is money.

1020
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:03,279
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1021
00:55:03,320 --> 00:55:05,800
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1022
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:08,680
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler