1 00:00:01,920 --> 00:00:06,520 Speaker 1: Welcome to Brainstuff, a production of I Heart Radio. Hey 2 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:10,160 Speaker 1: brain Stuff, Lauren Vogel Bam Here. The good people who 3 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:12,480 Speaker 1: make toilet paper and get it onto the shelves of 4 00:00:12,480 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: our local stores have been telling us for weeks that 5 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 1: we have nothing to worry about. You'll have your sharmin, 6 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:21,279 Speaker 1: they say, you're quilted, Northern and angel softened. Fill in 7 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,759 Speaker 1: the store brand here will be there for you. But 8 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: anyone who has been shopping lately knows, more than a 9 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: month into a worldwide pandemic, the paper aisle remains an 10 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 1: unmitigated disaster area. So is it ever going to get better? 11 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 1: And of all things, why toilet paper in the first place. 12 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 1: When consumers of toilet paper first became aware of the 13 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 1: novel coronavirus and the possibly lengthy stay at home orders 14 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:50,959 Speaker 1: that seemed sure to follow, the reaction generally fell one 15 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 1: of two ways. Oh One, let's wait and see see 16 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: how this thing shakes out, see if all this fuss 17 00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: is for not? And two battened down the bathroom hatches 18 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:04,319 Speaker 1: were in here for the long haul. Better stock up. 19 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: Back in early March in the United States, it seemed 20 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: as if the panic buyers and the hoarders clearly had 21 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 1: won out, but the perception of a looming shortage may 22 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:19,760 Speaker 1: not be entirely accurate. Despite the empty shelves. We spoke 23 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 1: Georgia Pacific spokesperson Eric Abercrombie. Georgia Pacific is one of 24 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:26,480 Speaker 1: the leading makers of toilet paper in the United States, 25 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:30,319 Speaker 1: the company behind angel Soft toilet tissue and Brawny Paper towels. 26 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:34,559 Speaker 1: Abercrombie said, I wouldn't say that there's a shortage because 27 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:38,320 Speaker 1: there is paper fibers still available, There's still trees were 28 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 1: still making it. The raw materials are there. We're working 29 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: with our third party vendors for our packaging needs. Those 30 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 1: products are there for us to package. It's just a 31 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: matter of time for it to be made and get 32 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 1: out to the stores. Still, the threat of a shortage 33 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: leads to something that Georgia Pacific's Kim Sackie calls four 34 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 1: oh fear of running out. That explains panic buying and hoarding. 35 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 1: Saki told The Chicago Sun Times, if you run out 36 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 1: of green beans, you can go without green beans. There 37 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:11,360 Speaker 1: are a lot of things you can substitute. There really 38 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 1: aren't a lot of substitutes for toilet paper. Greediness and 39 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 1: fear of being left with an empty roll on the 40 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 1: dispenser doesn't completely answer why many shelves are still cleaned out, 41 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 1: though another explanation may lie in a simple supply and 42 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 1: demand formula. More people at home plus more time at 43 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: home equals greater demand at home. Instead of making use 44 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 1: of facilities on campus, in office buildings, at restaurants and 45 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: coffee shops and bars, or even at rest stops or airports, 46 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 1: many people are staying home and using their home facilities. 47 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 1: The bottom line, sorry, may be as simple as this. 48 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 1: As a nation, we're almost certainly not going more during 49 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:57,639 Speaker 1: these trying times. We're just going more at home, and 50 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: right now we don't have enough at home product to 51 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 1: meet a surging demand. Anyone who's ever made a stop 52 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 1: in a public toilet and peeled off a line of 53 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: sand papery one ply knows the difference between commercial and 54 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 1: at home tissue. Abercrombie said, on the consumer side, we 55 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: saw a two times demand back in mid March, so 56 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: we quickly are trying to adjust the operations to meet 57 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 1: that demand. According to Abercrombie, siting statistics from Information Resources Incorporated, 58 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: a market research company based in Chicago, that demand is heavy. 59 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 1: An average United States household of two point six people 60 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 1: uses four hundred and nine equivalized rolls of toilet paper 61 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: per year, equivalized roles being kind of an average sized 62 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 1: role among all the mega and double rolls. Consider a 63 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 1: job that takes a third of a day, not counting commutes, 64 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: or a school day that takes somewhere around that at 65 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: in time, eating out, in various other time away from home. 66 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:00,880 Speaker 1: Now roll up all that away from home time and 67 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 1: add it to stay at home time. Staying home GP 68 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: figures would mean around at increase in at home toilet 69 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 1: tissue use, and that means, by GPS counting, a two 70 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 1: person household would need about nine double rolls or five 71 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 1: megas to last two weeks during this pandemic. A four 72 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 1: person household seventeen doubles or nine megas for two weeks. 73 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:30,719 Speaker 1: That sounds like a lot if it's accurate. It also 74 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:34,159 Speaker 1: sounds like a good argument that actual need, as much as, 75 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 1: or maybe more than, greed is what's keeping grocery store 76 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: shelves barren. Georgia Pacific has fourteen facilities that make bath 77 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 1: tissue and paper towels, both retail and commercial in eleven states. 78 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:51,040 Speaker 1: Those places employ around seven thousand, five hundred workers. They're 79 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 1: working at about one and twenty percent capacity, Abercrombie says, 80 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 1: and they're not alone. We also spoke by email with 81 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: Lauren Fanroy, a presentative for Procter and Gamble. They said, 82 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 1: we're producing and shipping Sharman at record high levels. We're 83 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 1: currently manufacturing and shipping. Demand continues to outpace supply, but 84 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:14,720 Speaker 1: we're working diligently to get product to our retailers as 85 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 1: fast as humanly possible so everyone can continue to enjoy 86 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 1: the go. So what else can be done? All consumers 87 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 1: can do at this point is sit and wait for 88 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:28,040 Speaker 1: manufacturers to catch up. The good people that make all 89 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:30,720 Speaker 1: that toilet paper are already tugging at the supply chain, 90 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 1: increasing and varying production where they can, and looking for 91 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:39,359 Speaker 1: efficiencies in packaging and distribution. Heidi Brock, the president of 92 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: the American Forest and Paper Association, said in a statement. 93 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 1: This situation is highly dynamic and changing daily, and the 94 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:48,840 Speaker 1: industry is working diligently to respond to the spike in 95 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 1: demand for TISSOO products due to coronavirus COVID nineteen purchases. 96 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: The rest assured Tishoot products continue to be produced and 97 00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 1: shipped just as they are fifty two weeks each year 98 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 1: as part of a gable market. Toilet paper manufacturers are 99 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 1: clearly not meeting that demand quite yet. The TP supply 100 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 1: chain has a lot of moving parts. It's not as 101 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 1: simple as switching a machine from scratchy one ply to 102 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: cooshy two ply, or from mega commercial rolls to a 103 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 1: double at home sizes. There's the packaging to The companies 104 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 1: will have to print more plastic wrap and already are 105 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 1: for more home use packages, you know, with the clouds 106 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 1: or bears or bunnies or kitties on them, and they'll 107 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 1: do fewer of the boxes that go to stores and businesses. 108 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: Shipping and storage also remain a challenge. A toilet paper, 109 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 1: as relatively bulky and light as it is, never has 110 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:45,840 Speaker 1: been an awfully efficient cargo to get from manufacture to 111 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 1: store shelf. You can only get so many rolls on 112 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 1: a truck. Nobody likes to use storage space on huge 113 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 1: packages of toilet paper either. Furthermore, the product's bulk may 114 00:06:56,160 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: encourage panic purchases, since fewer packages of toilet paper can 115 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 1: fit on one consumer facing shelf than some other products. 116 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 1: It may appear the stores running low more quickly once 117 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: a few packages are gone. We also spoke with David Kloss, 118 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 1: the John H. McConnell Chair Emeritus of the Department of 119 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 1: Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University's broad College of Business. 120 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: He said, it's not easy the relationships. If you're going 121 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 1: through the commercial industry, it's a completely different set of 122 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 1: distributors than retailers. There's different flows. Who controls it is different. Still, 123 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 1: the people that keep us in cottonell, et cetera are 124 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 1: working on it. The shelves for the good at home stuff, 125 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 1: as quickly as they're emptied out, are regularly getting filled again. Eventually, 126 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 1: and probably soon, suppliers will catch up to the demand, 127 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: distribution will become a little more streamlined, and when it 128 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 1: all comes together, the paper aisle will again be a 129 00:07:52,960 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 1: safe place to go, so to speak. Today's episode was 130 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 1: written by John Donovan and produced by Tyler Clang. For 131 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: more on this and lots of other urgent topics, visit 132 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 1: how Stuff works dot com. Brain Stuff is production of 133 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 1: I Heart Radio. For more podcasts from my heart Radio, 134 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 1: visit the heart Radio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you 135 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 1: listen to your favorite shows.