WEBVTT - Washington’s Crowded Outlook for 2024 0:00:15.320 --> 0:00:19.200 Hello, and welcome to the Votes and Verdicts podcast, hosted 0:00:19.200 --> 0:00:22.520 by the litigation and policy team at Bloomberg Intelligence, the 0:00:22.600 --> 0:00:27.560 investment research platform of Bloomberg LP. This podcast series examines 0:00:27.600 --> 0:00:31.720 the intersection of business policy and law. I'm Elliott Stein, 0:00:31.840 --> 0:00:35.640 an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence covering financials litigation. 0:00:35.680 --> 0:00:37.400 And my name is Nathan Dean, and I'm an analyst 0:00:37.440 --> 0:00:39.600 with Bloomberg Intelligence covering financials policy. 0:00:40.640 --> 0:00:43.640 So our topic for today is one of the subjects 0:00:43.720 --> 0:00:48.800 that is going to dominate the news headlines throughout the year. Washington, DC. 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:52.200 What can we expect to come out of Congress, from 0:00:52.240 --> 0:00:55.959 regulators and the White House in twenty twenty four? Will 0:00:56.000 --> 0:00:58.440 Congress pass any legislation this year that will have an 0:00:58.480 --> 0:01:03.000 impact on your portfolio? While regulators increase their rulemaking pace 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:06.040 this year to finalize items before the twenty twenty four 0:01:06.080 --> 0:01:08.880 elections and perhaps to get ahead of a ruling on 0:01:08.959 --> 0:01:13.600 the Chevron case. How will the elections shape US policy 0:01:13.640 --> 0:01:16.480 for years to come? How should investors think about a 0:01:16.520 --> 0:01:22.039 potential rematch between President Biden and former President Trump. Joining 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:25.000 us today to help answer those questions are some of 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:30.240 the best individuals distributing policy research and analysis to Wall Street, 0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:32.440 and we could not be more delighted to have them 0:01:32.480 --> 0:01:37.000 on our podcast. First, we'd like to introduce Henrietta Treys, 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:41.840 director of Economic policy Research with Vada Partners. Henrietta has 0:01:41.920 --> 0:01:46.000 provided investors with economic policy analysis for over fifteen years 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:49.640 on a broad set of topics, including financial services and 0:01:49.760 --> 0:01:53.800 healthcare reform. She is also in a lum of Congress, 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:57.200 having worked for the Senate Finance Committee and as a 0:01:57.240 --> 0:02:00.720 research fellow for a congressional member, and she's also a 0:02:00.800 --> 0:02:05.440 frequent contributor to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Henrietta, Welcome to 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:06.080 the podcast. 0:02:07.080 --> 0:02:09.119 Thank you so much for having me. Grilled to be here. 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:13.560 And also joining us is another contributor to Bloomberg TV 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:18.040 and Radio. Isaac Boltanski Managing director and Director of Policy 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:22.320 Research at BTIG, where he is responsible for coordinating the 0:02:22.320 --> 0:02:28.239 firm's Washington policy analysis and forecasting how potential policy shifts 0:02:28.560 --> 0:02:34.600 could impact investors, corporations, and other market participants. Prior to BTIG, 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:38.440 Isaac was the director of policy research at Compass Point 0:02:38.520 --> 0:02:41.960 Research and Trading and also served as a research analyst 0:02:42.240 --> 0:02:45.800 on the Troubled Asset Relief Program TARP. As many of you, 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:50.320 I'm sir know it a TARP Congressional oversight panel. So, Isaac, 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:52.480 welcome to the Votes and Verdicts Podcast. 0:02:53.560 --> 0:02:55.840 Thanks for the invite, Happy to be here with both 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:58.079 of you. I appreciate your research, and always good to 0:02:58.120 --> 0:02:58.920 be with Henrietta. 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:03.680 Thank you both. So for our regular listeners, we're gonna 0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:06.200 do things a little bit differently for this episode because 0:03:06.480 --> 0:03:09.320 we have this great panel of Washington experts, So we're 0:03:09.320 --> 0:03:12.560 gonna sort of do this as a round robin of sorts, 0:03:13.440 --> 0:03:16.000 asking you know, some of the key questions that we've 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:20.480 that are on our minds, on clients' minds, on investors' minds. So, 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:24.320 without further ado, let's get right into it. Let's talk 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:30.400 about predictions for twenty twenty four. Henrietta, why don't we 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:32.560 start with you and then Isaac and Nathan, you guys 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:35.960 can jump in after. I'd like to, you know, start with, 0:03:36.840 --> 0:03:38.680 you know, sort of a broad question, what is the 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:41.840 one thing in twenty twenty four a key prediction that 0:03:41.920 --> 0:03:45.360 you think the market is out of consensus on. Is 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:50.080 there something that markets aren't paying attention to, whether it's legislative, regulatory, 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:52.000 or from the executive branch? 0:03:52.640 --> 0:03:56.680 Oh Man, Where to start I would say that the 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:59.960 most frequent conversation I have with investors is really around 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:01.280 FED interest rate cuts. 0:04:01.400 --> 0:04:03.400 When's that going to start? When's it going to end. 0:04:04.400 --> 0:04:08.320 There is a prevailing view in any meeting I go 0:04:08.440 --> 0:04:13.080 to that the Fed is going to hold off reducing 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:16.080 interest rates as we get closer to the election, and 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:19.760 I disagree with that. That's not my experience having worked 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:23.000 closely with those agencies during the Great Recession. You know, 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:24.920 whatever the FED needs to do, whenever they're going to 0:04:25.120 --> 0:04:27.640 need to do it, they will act. I think that 0:04:27.680 --> 0:04:30.000 will be independent of a lot of sort of political 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:34.839 maybe conspiracy theories. I sometimes think about them as But 0:04:35.000 --> 0:04:38.239 expectations is for starting cuts in March and going through 0:04:38.720 --> 0:04:42.560 maybe August September. I think if they need to go 0:04:43.160 --> 0:04:45.560 well into September, they will do so. 0:04:45.560 --> 0:04:46.520 So that's one big one. 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:52.320 The next big disconnect is really just a commitment to 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:55.200 the idea that there will be another candidate on the 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:58.119 twenty twenty four presidential election ballot that is not named 0:04:58.120 --> 0:04:59.160 Biden or Trump. 0:04:59.560 --> 0:05:00.799 We get that a lot. 0:05:00.960 --> 0:05:03.440 Every single room I walk into, we have that conversation 0:05:03.560 --> 0:05:06.599 for a long time, you know, ten fifteen, twenty minutes 0:05:06.680 --> 0:05:09.159 just spitballing ideas about who else could it be, what 0:05:09.320 --> 0:05:12.360 happens if one of them drops out? If this were 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:16.000 any other two people in any other year, I don't 0:05:16.000 --> 0:05:18.320 think anybody would question the lock that Donald Trump has 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:19.360 on the Republican Party. 0:05:19.560 --> 0:05:21.680 And Joe Briden is the Democratic nominee. 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:23.919 He is the preferred candidate of eighty three percent of 0:05:23.920 --> 0:05:25.799 Democrats now and I expect that will rise. 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:28.400 So I don't see a path forward for other candidates. 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:31.599 By the time y'all publish this podcast, maybe we'll have 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:34.880 more information out of New Hampshire. But after New Hampshire, 0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:36.920 I think the primary season is done, and then investors 0:05:36.920 --> 0:05:39.560 will really start potentially being able to bake in what 0:05:39.600 --> 0:05:43.080 their expectations are for the election. There is probably the 0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:47.279 most to do on the tax front, and then also 0:05:47.320 --> 0:05:49.359 on the trade front. So those are two areas that 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:52.240 I focus on heavily with clients, and. 0:05:52.240 --> 0:05:55.479 We'll talk about some of those issues some more in 0:05:55.560 --> 0:06:00.360 terms of congressional and presidential priorities. But sticking on twenty 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:04.240 four key predictions, Isaac, anything you want to anything to 0:06:04.320 --> 0:06:05.000 keep it in an eye on. 0:06:06.080 --> 0:06:07.560 Yeah, Look, I think Henrietta's right. 0:06:07.920 --> 0:06:10.479 The number of conversations I have where people are just 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:14.920 high on hopium regarding some other candidate riding in to 0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:17.920 save the twenty twenty four election. Nobody wants it to 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:21.640 be Biden v. Trump, but it's going to be Biden v. Trump, 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:25.080 And I think that there is definitely in the investor 0:06:25.080 --> 0:06:29.200 community some hope that there'll be another set up. 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:30.080 I just don't see it. 0:06:30.200 --> 0:06:33.600 So I think really getting our arms around understanding what's 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:38.040 going to be an ugly and emotionally exhausting election cycle, 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:40.520 because that is what it's setting up as. I would 0:06:40.520 --> 0:06:45.000 also say that I don't think that market's fully ready 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:48.480 yet for the absolute flurry of rule making that we're 0:06:48.480 --> 0:06:53.039 going to get from the agencies in advance of the 0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:57.000 Congressional Review Act, deadline, advance of the Chevron ruling, advance 0:06:57.040 --> 0:06:59.800 of the election, and so you know, you can you 0:06:59.839 --> 0:07:02.680 can pick any part of the alphabet soup that runs down, 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:07.479 and they're trying to get these papers out and done 0:07:07.520 --> 0:07:09.480 as soon as they can, because look, we get into 0:07:09.600 --> 0:07:13.720 May of this year, and if you are releasing something 0:07:13.760 --> 0:07:16.360 after that, you may be in trouble. In terms of 0:07:16.360 --> 0:07:20.160 the Congressional Review Act, which allows for an expedited means 0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:23.520 of reversing a rule, and so I think that's the 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:25.920 one area that I've been highlighting in terms of something 0:07:25.920 --> 0:07:27.840 that might not be that sexy but could have an 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:32.240 enormous impact for certain sectors with real finalization. 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:34.640 I was just going to say, often comes litigation, So 0:07:34.720 --> 0:07:37.480 which is what I covered. So I'm looking forward to back. 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:39.760 All right, Nathan, what did you want to tie name it? 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:43.040 So I was gonna just echo Isaac's comment about the 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:44.800 rule making. I mean, even if you just look at 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:48.400 the SEC calendar, they're starting with a rule on specs 0:07:48.440 --> 0:07:50.600 on January twenty fourth, and I think they're just going 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:52.840 to go straight through. It's almost gonna be like primary 0:07:52.880 --> 0:07:55.000 season for the SEC. They've got so much stuff on 0:07:55.040 --> 0:07:57.720 the docket. But my one prediction that I'm going to 0:07:57.760 --> 0:07:59.080 go out there is I'm going to say that the 0:07:59.080 --> 0:08:00.840 Puzzil three and is finalized. 0:08:02.280 --> 0:08:03.040 I don't think. 0:08:03.080 --> 0:08:06.040 I think there is a growing consensus in Wall Street 0:08:06.080 --> 0:08:08.280 and amongst the banks that this may not happen, and 0:08:08.600 --> 0:08:10.760 I certainly don't. I certainly think there is a decent 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:13.040 chance that it may not happen. But if you look 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:16.200 at the regulatory agendas that the regulators, the FED, the 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:18.560 OCC and the FDIC to put out. They've said that 0:08:19.000 --> 0:08:21.680 their goal for finalizing the Bosle three. 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:22.440 End game is June. 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:25.880 Now, that is so fast in terms of going from 0:08:25.960 --> 0:08:29.480 proposal to finalization and so forth like that. But like 0:08:29.680 --> 0:08:32.640 Isaac has pointed out, you know, you've got a Congressional 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:34.920 Review Act out there, You've got this potential for a 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:37.959 GP victory out there, You've got a lot of things 0:08:38.000 --> 0:08:41.079 that are just uncertain for the regulatory framework going forward. 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:43.040 So I think you're going to have to make massive changes. 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:45.160 And we can talk about this later, but as of 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:47.679 right now, we're still saying sixty percent chance that the 0:08:48.200 --> 0:08:49.760 Buzzle three end game gets out this year. 0:08:50.559 --> 0:08:54.040 Let's stick Let's stick on that for a moment. Isaac 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:57.000 or Henrietta, either of you think they don't get it 0:08:57.040 --> 0:09:00.480 done by their anticipated timeline of what did you say, 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:01.200 married June? 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:04.200 Yeah, you know, I could see it slip, but I 0:09:04.240 --> 0:09:06.360 still you know they're they're aiming for June. And and 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:09.360 this says everybody knows those those dates aren't set in stone, 0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:13.079 but uh, I think they're gonna right now. They're proceeding 0:09:13.120 --> 0:09:14.319 is if they're going to finalize it this. 0:09:14.320 --> 0:09:17.560 Year, And the comments have been voluminous, as I'm sure 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:20.480 you guys all saw. So Isaaca Henry had any thoughts 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:23.320 on on the timing, I'm. 0:09:23.240 --> 0:09:25.280 I'm happy to jump in on this one because I've 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:27.280 I've spent the past day and a half of my 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:29.640 life reading comment letters, and god knows, I'm not going 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:33.480 to get bad time back. But you know, my view is, 0:09:33.640 --> 0:09:36.880 I don't think they're going to have it finalized this year. 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:39.920 I think that the odds of a reproposal have have 0:09:40.120 --> 0:09:43.160 increased meaningfully over the past few weeks. I think that 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:45.360 the letters that you've seen from the Hill, as well 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:48.520 as everything I've been able to pick up in regards 0:09:48.559 --> 0:09:52.160 to some consternation within the agencies and the principles in 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:54.400 the agencies, and then you throw on top of it 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:57.800 some of these comment letters where you have a pretty 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:03.640 diverse set of folks expressing concern regarding this proposal and 0:10:03.679 --> 0:10:06.920 it's economic impact. So look, I'm taking the over on 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:09.560 that I'm not as fearful of the Congressional Review Act. 0:10:09.600 --> 0:10:13.640 One of the peculiarities of the Congressional Review Act is 0:10:13.640 --> 0:10:15.559 that if you do use it, which by the way, 0:10:15.600 --> 0:10:18.600 they don't really like using it for financial services issues. 0:10:18.640 --> 0:10:20.719 When you know, they're going to have control of these 0:10:20.720 --> 0:10:24.120 agencies shortly after, so they can just change the issues 0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:27.400 at hand. But then also it effectively salts the earth 0:10:27.440 --> 0:10:31.840 for new rule making anything that's substantively similar, which Elliott 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:34.760 hasn't been fully litigated yet, so there's still questions around that, 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:37.120 of course. But look, I'm taking the over. I think 0:10:37.160 --> 0:10:40.040 that they're going to do an impact study that's going 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:42.160 to take time. I think they're going to work to 0:10:42.200 --> 0:10:44.840 find a way to try to handle some of the 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:47.680 low hanging fruit, everything for mortgage to the treatment of 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:51.120 corporate loans. But they're massive fights over the use of 0:10:51.160 --> 0:10:53.320 internal models and other things that lead me and believe 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:55.679 this is going to slip into the end of twenty 0:10:55.720 --> 0:10:58.439 four and maybe even twenty five if they decide to repropose. 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:02.599 All right, Nathan with the under, Isaac with the over, Henrietta, 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:04.640 you want to be peace maker or his side with 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:05.840 one of these gentlemen. 0:11:06.840 --> 0:11:09.840 I very much agree with Isaac on the level of 0:11:09.880 --> 0:11:12.959 consternation that's coming out, and I don't think Nathan is 0:11:13.000 --> 0:11:14.280 discounting that at all either. 0:11:15.480 --> 0:11:18.360 What's interesting from my perspective is the. 0:11:20.559 --> 0:11:24.920 That the reach that the complaints have been able to 0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:29.200 secure so you know, whether it's a healthcare conference or 0:11:29.360 --> 0:11:33.440 you know, Jamie Diamond is out speaking somewhere. The trickle 0:11:33.480 --> 0:11:36.920 down effect of somebody at the top having a negative 0:11:37.000 --> 0:11:42.240 reaction to these rules and proposals is so widespread that 0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:44.920 it's covered the blanket at the whole street at this point. 0:11:44.960 --> 0:11:48.320 So I'd expect exactly the dynamic Isaac is talking about. 0:11:48.360 --> 0:11:50.800 Just to get louder I did not spend the last 0:11:50.840 --> 0:11:53.079 day and a half reading those complaint letters, so thank 0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:54.000 you for doing it, Isaac. 0:11:54.760 --> 0:11:59.559 You're waiting for the movie. Yes, all right, let's uh, 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:02.559 let's which gears a little and talk about Congress. So 0:12:02.840 --> 0:12:06.400 we're recording this on January eighteenth, and at this time, 0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:11.040 Speaker Johnson and congressional negotiators are still trying to find 0:12:11.040 --> 0:12:14.400 a deal to keep the government open, and so because 0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:16.599 of that, we're not going to talk about, you know, 0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:20.280 a potential government shut down, since that issue could be 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:22.640 resolved by the time this episode there is. Maybe maybe not, 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:25.080 but I do want to focus a little bit on 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:29.840 congressional priorities for twenty twenty four from Speaker Mike Johnson. 0:12:30.360 --> 0:12:33.880 Once we get past this government funding issue, can Speaker 0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:37.720 Johnson effectively run the House? What are his priorities for 0:12:37.840 --> 0:12:41.120 the coming year? Can he handle you know, the many 0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:46.840 internal disagreements that he has with his party, similar to 0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:50.000 what we saw recently when twelve Republicans helped bring down 0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:54.240 and otherwise ordinary rules vote. Do you even think he'll 0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:56.800 be speaker at the end of twenty twenty four? So 0:12:56.840 --> 0:12:59.280 a lot of questions that I wanted to sort of 0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:02.560 throw out there, Isa, think, why don't we start with 0:13:02.600 --> 0:13:03.120 you this time? 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:08.719 So the initial question is does Speaker Johnson is he 0:13:08.760 --> 0:13:12.960 able to effectively manage the house? The answer is no. 0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:17.000 What's the next question? You know, I think it's been 0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:20.559 pretty clear that this is an ungovernable house. And when 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:23.400 I and I would even take a step farther and 0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:25.640 to say, you know, look, we're an earning season now. 0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:29.280 An earning season is all about expectations management, And boy, 0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:31.880 oh boy, was the bar set low for one hundred 0:13:31.880 --> 0:13:34.839 and eighteenth Congress and somehow they can't even clear that 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:37.800 low bar. And that's what you have when you have 0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:40.280 margins this this tight on each side. 0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:41.600 And so look, I. 0:13:41.520 --> 0:13:44.520 Think that we are we are gearing up to get 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:46.760 a Christmas tree done and I'm very interested in what 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:49.719 Henrietta and Nathan think on this, But I do think 0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:52.520 that there's a path forward on one of these catch 0:13:52.559 --> 0:13:55.560 all bills that everyone gets to hang their ornament on. 0:13:56.280 --> 0:13:58.800 But no, I don't expect much more, And really I 0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:02.240 think it's it's almost an impossible task with the margins 0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:05.160 where they are in the way that our political discourses 0:14:05.280 --> 0:14:08.240 has unfolded over the past few years. So no, I 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:11.160 don't think that we should expect much more than the 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.080 absolute bare minimum. And let's just hope they can even 0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:14.440 do that. 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:18.360 Always good to go with the under with on what 0:14:18.440 --> 0:14:23.119 Congress is going to get done. Nathan thoughts on this, Yeah. 0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:25.800 So you know, I do think Speaker Johnson's going to 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:27.920 be Speaker at the end of the House. I think 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:31.360 he's somewhat called a little bit of a bluff during 0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:34.880 the most recent government funding deal when he refused to 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:37.560 back off his one point sixty six or one point 0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:40.040 five to nine trillion dollar government spending bill, depending who 0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:42.720 you talk to. They think they somewhat disagree on the 0:14:42.760 --> 0:14:47.120 top playing number here, But I echo Isaac's comments that 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:50.960 I think once they figure out this spending package and 0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:54.520 they avoid this automatic sequester that's coming on April thirtieth. 0:14:54.600 --> 0:14:57.400 You know, if we're still under a cr there's a 0:14:57.440 --> 0:15:00.320 one percent sequester coming. Once they figure that out, and 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:02.320 I think they will. I think folks are just going 0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:04.400 to say we're tired, We're going to go to the election, 0:15:04.920 --> 0:15:08.040 you know, spend the entire summer, because you know, I 0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:11.560 often tell it to clients that when Congress is stuck 0:15:11.600 --> 0:15:14.960 here in Washington doing this stuff, like let's just say 0:15:14.960 --> 0:15:18.200 that somebody tries to kick Speaker Johnson out and they're 0:15:18.240 --> 0:15:20.360 going to have like ten days of trying to figure 0:15:20.400 --> 0:15:22.720 out who the next speaker is. That's ten days that 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:25.280 your opponent is out in your district campaigning against you, 0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:29.040 if you're in the House. And so I certainly think 0:15:29.040 --> 0:15:31.400 that most of the folks over in Congress will say, look, 0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:33.880 let's just get our end of the year priority set 0:15:33.960 --> 0:15:37.560 up in May or June. Let's just call it what 0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:40.280 it is. Let's go for the election. And obviously there 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:43.440 are things like Ukraine and Israel and border security, and 0:15:43.480 --> 0:15:45.240 I'm going to defer to my other two guests on 0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:48.440 those because they are better versed than that than I am. 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:50.280 You know, all that stuff has to get resolved, but 0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:52.560 there will come a point where like, look, I'm just 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:54.760 thinking about November and I don't care about anything else. 0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:56.640 Henrietta thoughts on this. 0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:59.080 Yeah, my favorite thing. 0:15:59.160 --> 0:16:00.720 I don't know if my client it's like enough, but 0:16:00.720 --> 0:16:02.880 I always go by the Congressional calendar. I find it 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:06.200 to be deeply informative and helpful in predicting when they 0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:09.160 will come up with conclusions. So right now as we speak, 0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:11.480 the House and Sentative reached a deal on voting on 0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:12.080 the CR so. 0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:14.440 They can get out tomorrow before the storm. 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:16.320 But if you look ahead, it sounds like we've got 0:16:16.760 --> 0:16:19.200 a good deal of time between March first and March chase, 0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:23.120 but they're in session almost none of February, so we, 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:26.600 by functionality, have to have another CR. And this is 0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:29.880 going to be a tightrope walk for Speaker Johnson. I 0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:33.720 suspect he will succeed. The guys have kind of alluded 0:16:33.720 --> 0:16:36.200 to a dynamic that I think is really informative here, 0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:39.520 which is that members remember the three week period where 0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:41.560 they were trying to re elect a new Speaker and 0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:46.160 that was awful. They've gone through their whole roster, so 0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:49.600 at this point Speaker Johnson is not really somebody that 0:16:49.960 --> 0:16:53.560 they're unwilling to bash. Obviously that's happening, but there's no 0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:56.840 other candidate, so he's going to do exactly what Kevin 0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:59.640 McCarthy did, which is just move the needle, move the 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:02.920 ball down the field every couple of weeks by four, 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:06.640 six weeks at a time. And I think for investors 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:11.080 the sequester is of interest, mostly on the defense side. 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:13.240 We have a lot of defense clients who want to 0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:15.680 know when spending cuts are going into effect. With ninety 0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:18.320 percent odds, I think the sequester will never go into effect. 0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:20.800 I was in Congress when they were writing the Budget 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:24.360 Control Act, and if you remember that one trillion dollar sequester, 0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:26.840 the most notable thing about it was that it never happened. 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:30.040 So I suspect that will happen this time around as well. 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:31.640 But if you really wanted to look and. 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:35.520 See when a major spending bill, the Christmas tree kind 0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:37.880 of idea that Isaac is referencing, I don't think it's 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:40.439 coming in February because they're not in session, but the 0:17:40.480 --> 0:17:43.720 period between March fifth and April eighteenth is one we'll 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:47.280 see the next big spending bill written, and probably the 0:17:47.320 --> 0:17:50.760 last bill that they pass all year. Aside from regulatory stuff, 0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:52.960 We're not going to see anything out of DC. There 0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:55.639 is no tax bill that's going to pass. There is 0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:58.439 no additional stimulus coming down the pike. We are just 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:01.840 going to fund the government at the most basic of levels. 0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:04.920 I do think that we will get an international aid package, 0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:07.480 in no small part because we also need fifty five 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:11.000 billion dollars in domestic aid for things like back billing FEMA, 0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:15.639 things like wildland firefighters, some broadband components that a lot 0:18:15.680 --> 0:18:17.760 of investors are interested in seeing renewed. 0:18:18.240 --> 0:18:19.360 So I do think that there is. 0:18:19.480 --> 0:18:22.080 Enough money to throw around to get these guys to 0:18:22.320 --> 0:18:24.760 vote on a bill before they leave down and go campaign. 0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:27.320 And of course that's my politics usually works. Pork barrel 0:18:27.359 --> 0:18:28.680 spending gets the job done. 0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:34.600 What about crypto and something getting done in Congress on crypto? 0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:36.440 I know, you know, it's been talked about a long time. 0:18:38.640 --> 0:18:44.639 You know, there have been cryptocurrency frameworks proposed, some of 0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:48.840 them bipartisan. You know, I think there is talk about 0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:53.080 maybe a stable coin bill getting done first, potentially. Wondering 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:54.920 if you guys had any thoughts on this, Nathan, you 0:18:54.960 --> 0:18:55.600 want to go first? 0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:59.120 Yeah, So what I told my crypto clients is that 0:18:59.640 --> 0:19:01.800 they need to start paying attention to twenty twenty five. 0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:05.840 I mean, like they are more better framed the courts, 0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:09.240 you know, like the coin based SEC court that I 0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:12.120 know Elliott was visiting yesterday and we'll have his analysis 0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:14.800 out on the terminal for that. But I don't think 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:17.240 Congress is going to be doing anything now when it 0:19:17.240 --> 0:19:20.440 comes to stable coins. I even have said as soon 0:19:20.680 --> 0:19:23.080 as late December that I thought a stable coin bill 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:25.439 could get done. And the reason being is is that 0:19:25.520 --> 0:19:28.080 there is a regulatory gap that I think pretty much 0:19:28.200 --> 0:19:30.439 anybody can agree on when it comes to stable coins, 0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:34.120 you know, other than SEC Chairman Gary genslerre viewing them 0:19:34.720 --> 0:19:39.720 sort of like a money market account. There who regulates 0:19:39.720 --> 0:19:42.280 the stable coin. Nobody really knows, and so I think 0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:45.640 there is general agreement on that they can get there 0:19:45.680 --> 0:19:47.760 on a stable coin, having it one hundred percent backed 0:19:47.760 --> 0:19:50.760 by high quality liquid assets and have it registered with 0:19:50.800 --> 0:19:54.400 the FED and or another regulator. The question is can 0:19:54.560 --> 0:19:57.080 something get done into Congress, like we just allude to, 0:19:57.200 --> 0:19:59.800 is so toxic and so at the end of the year, 0:19:59.840 --> 0:20:01.720 I even put in one of her predictions, I thought 0:20:01.720 --> 0:20:04.840 there was a sixty percent chance every day that we goes. 0:20:04.920 --> 0:20:07.000 I just feel less and less certain on that. And 0:20:07.040 --> 0:20:09.960 so if there's any crypto investors out there listening to 0:20:10.000 --> 0:20:13.000 the podcast right now, I think it's more importantly to 0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:17.520 watch the courts and see what happens in twenty twenty five. 0:20:18.040 --> 0:20:21.480 But just remember, even as of yesterday, President Trump gave 0:20:21.520 --> 0:20:26.600 a statement that there's no way, in his words of way, 0:20:26.840 --> 0:20:31.000 no chance of ever having essential being digital currency. So 0:20:31.280 --> 0:20:33.119 you know, what you get in twenty twenty five may 0:20:33.160 --> 0:20:34.440 not be what you want to see either. 0:20:34.800 --> 0:20:38.280 And I wasn't in court yesterday for the SEC versus 0:20:38.280 --> 0:20:42.200 Coinbase here in in my note Nathan is already published 0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:44.560 on the terminal this morning. I like Coinbase's chances in 0:20:44.560 --> 0:20:47.080 that case, which raises a question which we can throw 0:20:47.119 --> 0:20:49.400 into the next for you all. Let's say the SEC 0:20:49.480 --> 0:20:54.480 loses and loses badly, and that they're theory of evacuating crypto. 0:20:55.000 --> 0:20:59.240 You know, one of the securities laws gets rejected by 0:20:59.240 --> 0:21:02.880