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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go spreading the corn.

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Speaker 3: Ten seconds remaining, so just go show under the basket.

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Speaker 4: Under the basket, it's the croup for the wind God

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Speaker 4: big a miracle.

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Speaker 3: I'm good up the water hit that one from the

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Speaker 3: parking lot.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. I am

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Speaker 1: your host for this episode, Jim Root, joined by the

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Speaker 1: rest of the three man Weave crew, Matthew Cox, Kay McEwan.

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Speaker 1: We are here to break down the final four. We've

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Speaker 1: come to it at last. The road ends here in

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Speaker 1: San Antonio with arguably one of the best final fours ever.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna get the guys quick take on that before

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Speaker 1: we break down the games from every conceivable gambling angle

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Speaker 1: that we can think of. We're excited for it, Big

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Speaker 1: ones and sat down in San anton down in Texas,

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Speaker 1: Kay and I will be headed down there in person.

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Speaker 1: That will be our satellite correspondent from up in Chicago. Fellows,

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Speaker 1: let's just start right there. We've got all four one

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Speaker 1: seats for the first time since two thousand and eight,

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Speaker 1: very well documented that was also in San Antonio. As

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Speaker 1: everyone has mentioned, Kai, is this the best final four ever,

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Speaker 1: considering the quality of teams we've gotten.

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Speaker 3: Yes, I'm going absolutely yes. It's not just the quality,

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Speaker 3: it's the gap between the top four teams and the

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Speaker 3: rest of the nation. The margin between number four and

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Speaker 3: number five is huge. So yes, it's the best four

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Speaker 3: team in the country. It's the best four teams in

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Speaker 3: the country by far. I think eight was also ended

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Speaker 3: up being the top four teams in Kem Palm. We're

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Speaker 3: in the final four, but they weren't quite as dominant

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Speaker 3: compared to these teams. And these teams are frankly better.

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Speaker 3: It's the best final four of all time. I'm excited, Matthew.

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Speaker 5: It is the best final four of all time. However,

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Speaker 5: we were at maybe the second most intriguing final four

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Speaker 5: of all time. I'm not sure how, but how best.

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Speaker 5: But the UNC Duke, Villanova and the other team States

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Speaker 5: can State thank you in Nola. No, not NISI State in.

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Speaker 3: New Orleans for sure, k Yes, that was what it was.

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Speaker 5: That was the true blue blood final four. This is

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Speaker 5: like now, I think, a good microcosm of like the

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Speaker 5: new era of college basketball. There are many new bloods,

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Speaker 5: and obviously the four teams that are that are in

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Speaker 5: San antone good gym. Kaya sure you cut off the ice,

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Speaker 5: they'll call you out for being a fraud if you don't.

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Speaker 1: Well, ain't all new bloods, Matthew, because you're what is

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Speaker 1: the blue devils or the classic blue blood They are

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Speaker 1: down there in San Antonio as well, seeking their sixth title.

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Speaker 1: I believe mister Ryzewski racked up five while in Durham,

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Speaker 1: and they are the number one team. They're the top

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Speaker 1: ranked team in Ken Palm. They're the second ranked team

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Speaker 1: ever in Ken pom Per adjusted efficiency margin. We have

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Speaker 1: four of the top ten teams of all time per

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Speaker 1: that trick that goes back to nineteen ninety seven. That

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Speaker 1: alone would indicate, yes, potentially the best final four ever.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully the quality of the games indicate such such a

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Speaker 1: great quality of these teams. But let's talk about them.

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Speaker 1: Let's get into that we've got. I mentioned the quality

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Speaker 1: of the team's two double champs, Duke and Houston both

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Speaker 1: won regular season and tournament titles. Auburn won the SEC

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Speaker 1: regular season, Florida won the SEC tournament. Considering how good

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Speaker 1: that league is, getting each of those champs makes a

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Speaker 1: lot of sense. Hey, maybe winning the conference tournament does

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Speaker 1: matter in the future, so teams should play for that.

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Speaker 1: Start with Florida versus Auburn, unsurprisingly, the first game of

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Speaker 1: the day, Duke the Nightcap team of all Nightcap teams

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Speaker 1: to get ratings. Ratings, ratings, we've got Florida minus two

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Speaker 1: and a half, a high high total of one hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty and a half, although it has ticked down

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Speaker 1: a little bit since open down one and a half points. Matthew,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to go to you first here. We'll get

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Speaker 1: your your take on this SEC rubber match, although they

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Speaker 1: did only play once during the regular season, with Florida

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Speaker 1: getting the win. How are you looking at this game

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Speaker 1: from a side and total perspective?

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Speaker 5: Well, I think the Jodi Broom re injury is obviously

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Speaker 5: the story that people will have to track throughout the week.

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Speaker 5: It seems like he's fine, right, but it has been

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Speaker 5: I think two or three times this year he has

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Speaker 5: the world has stopped and gassed at that potentially being

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Speaker 5: a seismic shift in the landscape. But he looks good,

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Speaker 5: I think is the way he's kind of labored through

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Speaker 5: at ky you can tell you just sort of like

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Speaker 5: almost hobbles his way to dominance in an awkward way,

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Speaker 5: but that's I think the whole matchup on both sides

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Speaker 5: revolves around Broom's effectiveness.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 5: He was not effective in that game on Friday against Michigan, Right.

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Speaker 5: I think Auburn really got away with one there in

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Speaker 5: the second half by praying on Michigan's turnovers, and their

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Speaker 5: guards really led them, I think down the stretch right

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Speaker 5: Denver Jones into Hot Pettiford. I think that's a continuation

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Speaker 5: of the matchup. You're going to the matchup edge. I

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Speaker 5: think they have to really lead into here now as

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Speaker 5: Florida's guards have been as big as those guards are,

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Speaker 5: I think you have to look at Denver Jones and Pediford.

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Speaker 5: Pediford a little smaller, So Jones is the guy I

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Speaker 5: think is like the X factor. I'm already kind of

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Speaker 5: going right to player props. I've sort of I've sort

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Speaker 5: of dovetailed off of the side. In total, I think

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Speaker 5: both are pretty sharp. No official plays there, but I

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Speaker 5: am looking at some player props and the Auburn guards

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Speaker 5: I think are gonna be poised for some big production,

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Speaker 5: whether it be in garbage time or just because I

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Speaker 5: think they do have some matchup favorability. Here, especially with

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Speaker 5: Broom and Cardwell maybe not being as assertive or dominant

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Speaker 5: upfront in the post.

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Speaker 1: A quick followup for you, Matthew Denver Jones had two

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Speaker 1: points on oh four shooting in the first matchup. Does

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Speaker 1: that scare you a little.

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Speaker 5: Bit because again, I think the key thing that Florida

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Speaker 5: has his size on the perimeter. But I think the

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Speaker 5: Denver Jones we've seen lately in this tournament has just

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Speaker 5: been different. So I do think he I think in

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Speaker 5: this matchup you're gonna need him right, whether it's an

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Speaker 5: efficient you know, path to the props.

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Speaker 3: Over or or volume.

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Speaker 5: I think he's He's the one guy I'm circle in

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Speaker 5: terms of, you know, really breaks out and has big game,

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Speaker 5: lots of options, lots of the usage for sure.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Jim mentioned the first matchup, Florida smoked that meeting.

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Speaker 3: They led by twenty one at Auburn. It was really

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Speaker 3: impressive and they didn't even have Elijah Martin. I would

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Speaker 3: say they're you know, I'll call him second best player

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Speaker 3: behind Walter Clayton. That's maybe even a little controversial with

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Speaker 3: Alex Condon. He's been fantastic this year, but their interior

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Speaker 3: defense led the way fishing offense. Of course, good shooting.

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Speaker 3: Auburn won the turnover battle and grab more offensive rebounds,

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Speaker 3: didn't It wasn't like they played horrible. Florida was just

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Speaker 3: that good that night, and I think this four team

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Speaker 3: is awesome. That game was seventy four possessions, one hundred

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Speaker 3: and seventy one points. I'm not sure we really get

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Speaker 3: a shootout in this game. I don't know if that's

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Speaker 3: the best path for either team. Necessarily. Florida loves to

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Speaker 3: play in transition, loves to run. But I don't think

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Speaker 3: Golden Mines happing this as a slog. He has waves

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Speaker 3: of bigs he can throw at Broom with Condon with

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Speaker 3: Hog with handlocked in which in YALEU it's arguably the

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Speaker 3: de front court in the country, and Broome got his

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Speaker 3: in the first matchup. The key is for Florida not

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Speaker 3: to key in too much and overplay on Broom. Because

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Speaker 3: you mentioned Denver Jones, with Pettiford and Johnson and Kelly

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Speaker 3: and Baker Mazzara, there are plenty of other weapons for Auburn.

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Speaker 3: This offense is so efficient, number one shot quality, top

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Speaker 3: four in the country. With Florida, it's really a tough

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Speaker 3: team to stop, especially if you just laser focus on Broom.

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Speaker 3: He's a good passer too. I just love Walter Clayton.

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Speaker 3: He's a star. I do think Florida can find success

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Speaker 3: in the open floor they choose to go that route.

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Speaker 3: I do think they can impede on the glass with Auburn,

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Speaker 3: which is key. I love this Gator team. I want

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Speaker 3: them to win, but man, Auburn as a dog is

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Speaker 3: very tempting to me. I don't believe they've been a

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Speaker 3: dog what at all this season. If they have, it's

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Speaker 3: been very, very few times, and that's tempting. I'm on

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Speaker 3: the fence on the side and total, kind of like Matthew.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't have any official play on the side

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Speaker 1: of total either. I think as we get down to it,

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Speaker 1: those numbers get sharper and sharper. I've also started looking

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Speaker 1: a little more at some of the player props. K.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to quick try to check on that.

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Speaker 5: Auburn They No, I have that right here, Jim, I'm

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Speaker 5: prepp baby bwice.

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Speaker 1: Okay, twice, Okay, Duke at Duke makes sense?

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Speaker 3: And how about this? Houston forgot those two teams play?

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Speaker 3: Did you? How about that number ninth.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Robin one beat Houston and they lost at Duke

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Speaker 5: did not cover so one in one we can make

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Speaker 5: a lot of two games. But it's funny that the

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Speaker 5: two times Kyri had they actually have been a dog

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Speaker 5: this year where he gets go to two teams in

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Speaker 5: this final four.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, the fact that Auburn's played all three teams

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Speaker 1: in the final four and only one of them in

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Speaker 1: their conference, it just tells you again how the how

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Speaker 1: hard their schedule was, how impressive what they did for

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Speaker 1: the first twenty nine games of the season, how impressive

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Speaker 1: that accomplishments were that got them the number one overall

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Speaker 1: seed despite losing three of their final four games. The

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Speaker 1: pace is going to be interesting. As Kai mentioned, first

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Speaker 1: one got up and down. I believe our guy Stucky

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Speaker 1: has an angle on the elite eight games tend to

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Speaker 1: slow down more than the final four games. I think

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Speaker 1: there's a getting their nervousness more than there is a

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Speaker 1: we're here, let's play, let's get up and down, let's

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Speaker 1: be ourselves. So both these teams I think would be

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Speaker 1: a little bit prone to getting up and down. And again,

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Speaker 1: your take on the total should probably impact your take

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Speaker 1: on player props, because if you're thinking under, you don't

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Speaker 1: want to be hammered a bunch of overs, whether it

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Speaker 1: be rebounds, assists, or points. So, Matt, you mentioned the

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Speaker 1: Denver Jones to Hod Pettiford angle. I'll give you two

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Speaker 1: that I like and i'll see what you think here

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Speaker 1: one Clayton Walter Clayton over three and a half assists

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Speaker 1: minus one twenty here, so there's a little bit of

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Speaker 1: juice to pay for it. He had nine in the

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Speaker 1: first meeting with Auburn. He's gone over three and a

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Speaker 1: half in eight of his last eleven. He played all

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Speaker 1: forty minutes against Auburn, now granted and Elijah Martin, but

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Speaker 1: I think that is indicative of what could happen here.

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Speaker 1: The only three he's gone under in the last eleven

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Speaker 1: games at Norfolk State he played twenty nine minutes. Who

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Speaker 1: cares that game doesn't matter. First round game against sixteen seed,

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Speaker 1: then you count in Tennessee. They both really slowed the

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Speaker 1: game down, made it much more of a half court

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Speaker 1: kind of brawl, a lower total than one hundred and

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Speaker 1: sixteen and a half when the teams are willing to

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Speaker 1: get up and down with them he's racked up assists.

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Speaker 1: He's gotten four in the last two. He's had some

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Speaker 1: really big, gaudy assess holes down the stretch. So that

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Speaker 1: is one I'm looking at. The other is Alex Condon

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Speaker 1: under seven and a half rebounds. Unfortunately people are onto

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Speaker 1: this one minus one forty five. The juice is really

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Speaker 1: hitting hard there. He did have ten in their first meeting,

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Speaker 1: but he was healthy then. I think he's going to

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Speaker 1: be limited here with the ankle. It's just tough to

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Speaker 1: recover from that immediately in a week, even with a

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Speaker 1: ton of treatment. They also did not have hand locked

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Speaker 1: in in the first game. He wasn't back from his

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Speaker 1: broken leg yet, so I think maybe they'll be a

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Speaker 1: little bit more democratic with minutes Conda without some explosiveness

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Speaker 1: going under seven and a half. He's also gone under

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Speaker 1: it in what He's gone over that once in the

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Speaker 1: last six so five to last six under. I think

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Speaker 1: this kind of trends well. Matthew, Clayton and Condon. Any

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Speaker 1: thoughts on those two and then you can hit me

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Speaker 1: with any others you have.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I like that as well. I back to my

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Speaker 5: broom point. I actually was looking it's the problem with

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Speaker 5: these markets is there is a lot of books don't

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Speaker 5: offer the under, which is ridiculous. Like I kind of

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Speaker 5: think a broom under is worth a look here because

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Speaker 5: you're going to probably get lots of like twenty scoring

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Speaker 5: unscoring yeah.

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Speaker 1: From BETMGM right now, seventeen and a half is the

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Speaker 1: title with even money to the under to the under.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: See I think eighteen and a half at FanDuel shop round.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying to think.

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Speaker 5: Okay, yeah, fandoalisy eighteen oh eight and a half, thank you, Kay, Yes,

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Speaker 5: I like that one. Uh yeah, Jim to your point,

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Speaker 5: and actually I just want to go back to my

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Speaker 5: Denver Jones point. The problem with Jones a little bit

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Speaker 5: is that he is like one of their premier defenders,

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Speaker 5: and you could see him getting a lot of the

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Speaker 5: the Clayton matchup, and certainly, you know with how you

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Speaker 5: know meticulous Pearl is with his with his game plans.

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Speaker 5: Excuse me, probably something to do with those high assist

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Speaker 5: total shimm you mentioned something to do with him, just

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Speaker 5: like let's make others beat us. Clayton's too good. I

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Speaker 5: think he does draw a lot of gravity and a

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Speaker 5: lot of attention and pace wise. I'm of the belief

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Speaker 5: this game will get up and down. I don't think.

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Speaker 5: I think Alburg has been okay playing multiple styles. Pearl

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Speaker 5: has really touted as like a strength of this team.

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Speaker 5: He likes that they can win multiple ways. But Florida

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Speaker 5: plays their way and I think that game and Auburn

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Speaker 5: can win that way, and I think that that's what

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Speaker 5: the way this game splanks Kai so that I think

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Speaker 5: if you're looking for a total, and I have the

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Speaker 5: updated again, the theme of this podcast is large samples

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Speaker 5: ten and six to the over final fours since twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 5: since the shot clock or so since the yeah, shot

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Speaker 5: clock was the thirty, so with the thirty, So there

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Speaker 5: you go, huge, huge trends in the favor of the

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Speaker 5: over for final four. I agree with with Stuckey's point though,

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Speaker 5: Elite A to final four, more overy, more free flowing

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Speaker 5: in terms of pace.

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Speaker 3: But I'm gonna tip my toe in the prop mark,

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Speaker 3: which I don't often do. Thomas Hawk three pointers, why not,

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Speaker 3: let's do it. He's shot seventeen this tournament, and him

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Speaker 3: to make two is plus three twenty at FanDuel minus

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Speaker 3: one fifty four to hit one. I do think he'll won.

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Speaker 3: He shot four in the first matchup one for four

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Speaker 3: against Auburn. I think he has a pretty good chance

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Speaker 3: of making one or two in this game. So hey,

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Speaker 3: there's my weird player prop for this one.

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Speaker 5: I think he gets a lot of minutes too. He

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Speaker 5: should be thirty. E've been thirty plus the last two games.

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Speaker 5: I think with Condon's injury and Chinyelo has been kind

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Speaker 5: of hit or miss, and so I think maybe a

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Speaker 5: golden that Staff lean more into the hot hand and

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Speaker 5: certainly has been hot.

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Speaker 1: Y Hinelo may be the worst layup finisher of seven

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Speaker 1: footers in the country. It's sometimes very brutal to watch. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Kai Howk's confidence could not be higher, and he hit

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Speaker 1: two huge ones to give Florida a chance. Clayton came

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Speaker 1: out the story of that game, but how Kit two

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Speaker 1: right before to cut that lead down and give Clayton

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Speaker 1: shots a chance to matter. So I would think that

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Speaker 1: he's yeah, I got a pretty good chance that you

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Speaker 1: said one fifty four to make one, They've got it

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Speaker 1: one fifty at MGM. So poke around at these all

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Speaker 1: these different ones. Curious real quick on just Jan and

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Speaker 1: I broom props. Guys, Matt, you were thinking under I

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Speaker 1: think he's going to have a lot of volume. He

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Speaker 1: had eighteen eleven and six against Florida in the first meeting,

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Speaker 1: but he took nineteen shots to get to the eighteen.

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Speaker 1: That's my one fear with going unders that they're probably

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Speaker 1: just gonna have to feed him over and over. And

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Speaker 1: I could see Florida being like, we've got four bigs

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Speaker 1: to throw at you. We're just gonna make you try

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Speaker 1: to beat us with those those guys, you're banged up.

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Speaker 1: I just worry about his volume, So I don't really

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Speaker 1: have a strong take either way. And Broom kai an

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Speaker 1: anything for you.

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Speaker 3: There no no strong take. Yeah, Golden's like two different ways.

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Speaker 3: It's like, okay, either they're just gonna say, all right,

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Speaker 3: Broom you try to beat us, or they're gonna take

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Speaker 3: him like way away completely. It's gonna be a too

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Speaker 3: one of the extremes. What would you do?

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Speaker 5: I think I'm in the camp of make Broom Beach

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Speaker 5: you don't want, Yeah, I don't. You just don't let

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Speaker 5: Maker Mazarre get going, don't let Petiford get going, don't

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Speaker 5: don't give them that.

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Speaker 3: Like spurt ability with those crazy shots.

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Speaker 5: I think you try and focus on that and make

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Speaker 5: you beat you know, play the two v three math game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I would be all about that as well.

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Speaker 1: If you can get up and down and get transitioned

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Speaker 1: and they're trying to beat you with post ups against

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Speaker 1: their interior defenders, I can live with that. Uh, Matt,

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Speaker 1: do we bet under Chad Baker massar props hoping that

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Speaker 1: he gets ejected?

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Speaker 3: It's a tea Yeah. I mean it's a good idea

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Speaker 3: how how deep the menu is.

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Speaker 5: But I've not seen technicals over under on any on

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Speaker 5: the list. I think an over would be a good

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Speaker 5: look here. I don't The final four officials are obviously

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Speaker 5: going to be discussed at length when they come out.

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Speaker 5: A lot of those veteran guys don't like making the

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Speaker 5: tough tees. But maybe you get like a wild car

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Speaker 5: bed and they're just looking to make make a name

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Speaker 5: for himself, and maybe he singles out CBM and at

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Speaker 5: that moment just.

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Speaker 1: See him getting ejected and then the void Baker Massaar props.

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Speaker 1: It's not fair. Well, this was the risk when you

339
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Speaker 1: bet on that lunatic.

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Speaker 4: Head course shots and mascot suzz a beta that's shot must.

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Speaker 2: Keep teaving disappearing freshman with a hot hand, shoots and scores.

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Speaker 1: All right, fellas, that's it. Let's move to the second

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Speaker 1: game here, Duke versus Houston. Lots of table set here.

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Speaker 1: Houston's won twenty nine of their last thirty. They have

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Speaker 1: not lost in regulation since November, and they're a five

346
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Speaker 1: point underdog. That's what you get for accomplishing all that.

347
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Speaker 1: They're playing in their home state, playing in San Antonio,

348
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Speaker 1: not overly close to Houston, but close enough that the

349
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Speaker 1: crowd should be well populated with Cougars fans. Of course,

350
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Speaker 1: Duke travels well too, so not exactly a Houston home game.

351
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Speaker 1: But Kaius opened Duke minus four and a half and

352
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Speaker 1: it's up to five, so people are buying that we

353
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Speaker 1: could get this Duke coronation. They blow everybody out. They

354
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Speaker 1: just blew out a top seven team in Alabama, completely

355
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Speaker 1: took them to the woodshed basically the entire game total

356
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Speaker 1: one thirty six, one of the Duke's lowest totals of

357
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Speaker 1: the season because of Houston's defense, What are you thinking

358
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Speaker 1: about with this game side in total?

359
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Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a better matchup for Houston. Alabama's defense

360
00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:14,960
Speaker 3: is not that good. Houston's defense is great. Yeah, both

361
00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:18,600
Speaker 3: teams combined upon thirty two straight games, so it's someone's

362
00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:20,240
Speaker 3: got to lose, and it hasn't been a while off

363
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Speaker 3: either one of them. A different game excuse me, different

364
00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:25,560
Speaker 3: teams this year from last year, but last year was

365
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Speaker 3: a slog. These teams met in the lead eight fifty

366
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Speaker 3: six possessions, ugly one hundred and five points. Duke hung

367
00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:34,880
Speaker 3: right with the Cougars and the glass they hitd up defensively,

368
00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:37,520
Speaker 3: of course, Shed got hurt, but Duke was impressive and

369
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Speaker 3: this year's Duke team is even better on both ends

370
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Speaker 3: of the floor. They're the biggest team in the country.

371
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Speaker 3: That means they can battle Houston on the boards. That's

372
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Speaker 3: obviously a key. They can throw multiple bigs at Jawan Roberts,

373
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Speaker 3: and they can extend in the perimeter with their size

374
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Speaker 3: and sort of take away Houston's three. Houston's the top

375
00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:55,680
Speaker 3: three three point team in the country. That's actually a

376
00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:59,399
Speaker 3: big part of their offense, especially on kickouts off offensive boards.

377
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,320
Speaker 3: Any team, in my opinion, is built to stop Duke.

378
00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:05,760
Speaker 3: I think it's Houston. They pressure Duke Handler's who have

379
00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:07,960
Speaker 3: been excellent all year. To remember, there's no real true

380
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,680
Speaker 3: point guard on this team. Sam James is not really

381
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:12,159
Speaker 3: a true point guard. He just runs it and he

382
00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:15,439
Speaker 3: does a great job of To be fair, they're going

383
00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:17,399
Speaker 3: to make scoring at the rimature and they're going to

384
00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,119
Speaker 3: force Duke to shoot over the top. The Bouod Devils

385
00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:21,320
Speaker 3: can really shoot, but does it throw them off their

386
00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:24,040
Speaker 3: game at all if shots aren't falling early and if

387
00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:27,159
Speaker 3: the Houston physicality kind of wears on them or shocks

388
00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,640
Speaker 3: them right away. This is the most physical team, best

389
00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 3: coach team on the defensive end the floor in the country.

390
00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:35,879
Speaker 3: I think this one's sort of a battle, relatively low scoring.

391
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Speaker 3: I'm winning towards the under. I'm also going to take

392
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Speaker 3: the points with Houston plus five. Yeah, it's tough not

393
00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:43,720
Speaker 3: to take five with Houston. The concerns though, to me,

394
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Speaker 3: are you look at what Houston's done so far, that

395
00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:49,480
Speaker 3: they've played some physical teams, but they really haven't played

396
00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:52,840
Speaker 3: a great defensive rebounding team like Tennessee Isn't doesn't. Profile

397
00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:55,159
Speaker 3: is a great defensive rebinding team, and they dominated on

398
00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:58,280
Speaker 3: the offensive class when shots were falling. And you just

399
00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,080
Speaker 3: look at what Houston's They played ten games at neutral sites,

400
00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 3: They're four and six against the spread. They've been obviously

401
00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:06,480
Speaker 3: favored most of those games. That's not a big trend.

402
00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:08,240
Speaker 5: But I do think is though, is the way they

403
00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 5: play and how reliant they are on their shot making

404
00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:14,600
Speaker 5: does worry me at this cavernous neutral site venue, whatever,

405
00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:16,680
Speaker 5: But because they get so many offensive rebounds, it doesn't

406
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,480
Speaker 5: really matter. But Duke, I think, is the best defensive

407
00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:21,720
Speaker 5: rebounding team they've gone up against so far in this tournament.

408
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,000
Speaker 5: So that's where I think maybe we haven't seen Houston.

409
00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,920
Speaker 5: I worry about Houston's offense looking more mortal if shots

410
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,439
Speaker 5: aren't falling, if they can't get forty percent of their misses,

411
00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,119
Speaker 5: and that's where Duke's been terrific. Like I know, Flag

412
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 5: had a struggled last game, but I mean on the glass,

413
00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:38,359
Speaker 5: he was awesome. He cleans everything up, gets them going

414
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:42,239
Speaker 5: out in transition. So I had some matchup concerns their gym.

415
00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:45,119
Speaker 5: I was certainly in toward Houston as well. I ultimately landed,

416
00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:47,200
Speaker 5: but just as a full reveal, I'm going to take

417
00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:50,000
Speaker 5: just both dogs money line. Feel pretty good about one

418
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:51,920
Speaker 5: of those winning, and that's sort of my plus ev

419
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:55,560
Speaker 5: port foudio. But I have some matchup concerns here with Houston,

420
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:57,919
Speaker 5: even though they are in their home state coming off

421
00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:01,280
Speaker 5: three straight games, they basically played road games right Tennessee

422
00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:02,840
Speaker 5: as well, so this is kind of a nice change

423
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,040
Speaker 5: of pace for them. Still, I just don't know about

424
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:05,960
Speaker 5: the matchup here for Houston.

425
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Speaker 3: I don't love it.

426
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:08,639
Speaker 1: I guess so look us in the imat and tell us.

427
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:10,720
Speaker 1: Is that an emotional hedge for Duke.

428
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:12,960
Speaker 3: Partially that what's going on there doesn't make it wrong?

429
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 1: Jim, No, no it doesn't. I just want to want

430
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Speaker 1: to make sure that the listeners have the peek inside there. Matt,

431
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:21,200
Speaker 1: can you name the best defensive rebounding teams by rate

432
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:23,360
Speaker 1: that Houston has played this year?

433
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 3: Kansas?

434
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 1: Kansas is up there, Kansas is there? Is number four,

435
00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 1: basically I was now I thought, Iowa State. I'll just

436
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,920
Speaker 1: number one's Notre Dame, which they're not even on the level,

437
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,600
Speaker 1: So I'm not really worried about that matchup. But number

438
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 1: three is Gonzaga, who Houston scored very efficiently against. And

439
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:46,640
Speaker 1: number two really the one that's probably the closest compment

440
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 1: in terms of like size is BYU, who Houston blasted

441
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:54,200
Speaker 1: by twenty points and thirty points. Again, they're not due

442
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,879
Speaker 1: it's not the same thing, but I think they can

443
00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:01,240
Speaker 1: be teams in defensive rebound and they're relentlessness and scrappiness

444
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:03,679
Speaker 1: and really the shots they take like they don't get

445
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:05,119
Speaker 1: to their rim that much, so it's a lot of

446
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:08,920
Speaker 1: long rebounds, it's a lot of takes tippable, yeah, and

447
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:11,840
Speaker 1: they get to like the mid range crier newsander shooting floaters,

448
00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,680
Speaker 1: stuff that you can tip out. I think sometimes that

449
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 1: can be a little immune to great defensive rebounding because

450
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 1: even if you're in the right position, it might bounce.

451
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:19,880
Speaker 3: Over your head.

452
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 1: We mentioned Auburn barely being a dog this year. Houston's

453
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 1: been a dog once. That closed a one point underdog

454
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 1: at Kansas, which in hindsight now looks kind of silly,

455
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 1: just the fact that how good Houston is. The trajector

456
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 1: at Kansas went on. Houston didn't a miracle to win

457
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 1: that game, but it's just kind of surprising that they

458
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:39,360
Speaker 1: were an underdog. That's the only time the last two

459
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:42,480
Speaker 1: years the Houston's been a dog. I like Houston just

460
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 1: from a spread here, I think five's too many. I

461
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 1: think this can be a little bit similar to the

462
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 1: Clemson game. Now, this isn't Little John Coliseum. But it's

463
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:54,880
Speaker 1: a super physical adult team that has got a lot

464
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:58,880
Speaker 1: of physicality to it and just the scrappiness. The way

465
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 1: it felt like Clemson got a loose ball in that game.

466
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:05,400
Speaker 1: Houston feels like a wonderful loose ball team. You throw

467
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 1: a little bit of fifth year senior guys, guys with

468
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 1: a ton of length at flag, just see if you

469
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 1: can get him out of rythm like he was for

470
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 1: most of that Clemson game. He was great late, but

471
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 1: he struggled for the first thirty five minutes. I think

472
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 1: that sets up well for Houston. There is that little

473
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 1: ankle of for five of the seven guys in the

474
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,480
Speaker 1: Houston rotation. They lost to this Duke team last year

475
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:29,400
Speaker 1: when they probably shouldn't have because she got hurt. Maybe

476
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 1: a tiny revenge angle there. I think that at least

477
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 1: keeps it close. As great as Duke is laying five

478
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,360
Speaker 1: against the second best team in the country, that's kind

479
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 1: of crazy to me. With how good Houston's been and

480
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:42,200
Speaker 1: the matchup that I think works a little bit in

481
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:42,640
Speaker 1: their favor.

482
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,159
Speaker 5: I was looking at props Jimbo, please do tell me

483
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,160
Speaker 5: and to them to the Houston matchup point. I think

484
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 5: the emergence of Miley lock for Duke has gotten a

485
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,160
Speaker 5: lot of love, you know, and Goneba has been phenomenal

486
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 5: to I think, just waves of size up front. All

487
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 5: these teams just have just huge, deep frontline. It's just

488
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,400
Speaker 5: like a very clear common threat across all of them.

489
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 1: I don't I would have surprised that the Bama game

490
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 1: was like all mallowatch and very little Gungba.

491
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 3: Yeah it was.

492
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 5: It tipped one, I think because he's just more mobile,

493
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 5: at least on the perimeter to my you know, I

494
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 5: you know, more of a you know, a pro type

495
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 5: of big with his ability to kind of step away,

496
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 5: but not like he's going to stretch the floor. But

497
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 5: he did look more more ably to move his feet

498
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 5: I think that's going to matter in this matchup too.

499
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 5: But I don't want to like ride the Maluwak trend

500
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,199
Speaker 5: against a vaunted Houston frontline. I just don't know if

501
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 5: this is the right matchup, but is It's pretty crazy

502
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 5: to see how important he's been, especially since Malik Brown

503
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 5: had his set back high.

504
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,399
Speaker 3: So uh, to me, kan k Nipple is the is

505
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 3: the matchup here.

506
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 5: I think Shire just trusts him so much he drew

507
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:45,200
Speaker 5: up so many actions for him against Bama. Now that

508
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 5: was a he had a better matchup against Bama that

509
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 5: he might have here against Houston. But but I think

510
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:51,440
Speaker 5: that there's just a lot of trust factor with with

511
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 5: Shire and how he likes to really dictate the actions

512
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 5: that they run, especially in a close game, which I

513
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:58,639
Speaker 5: think he probably expect this to be. I think I

514
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,199
Speaker 5: think KK gets so it's a lot of usage. I'm

515
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,960
Speaker 5: not sure it's a points are and assist thing, but

516
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 5: I think points for Kinnnipple, maybe threes as well. With

517
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 5: Houston's defense, maybe in rotations, but just a quick look there.

518
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't have much in terms of props. I

519
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 3: would lean towards the Duke guards versus the Duke frontline.

520
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,879
Speaker 3: Houston is like the best friend defense and paint defense.

521
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,360
Speaker 3: I think now the glass should be open for Duke.

522
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 3: On the offensive end, Houston's a great offensive rebounding team.

523
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 3: They are susceptible sometimes a defensive rebounding so that's where

524
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 3: Malolac can really come into play. But I do think

525
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 3: they're going to have a tough time scoring in the

526
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 3: interior against Houston, So I would look towards guardovers for

527
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 3: Duke and more so the unders towards big men. Maybe Flag,

528
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:47,119
Speaker 3: I mean eighteen and a halfs a lot, and he

529
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 3: hasn't hit that mark in what three four games in

530
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 3: this tournament. Houston's by far the best defense they've played

531
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 3: so far. So hey, it's scary. He's gonna have a

532
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 3: lot of volume, like Jim said with Broom, but that's

533
00:24:57,920 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 3: the way I lean on his point total.

534
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of like the Flag assists where, you know,

535
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 1: especially if he's they're playing in like the mid post.

536
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 1: You know, Houston loves to hard double the post. Maybe

537
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:10,400
Speaker 1: they won't do it here, and I think they've avoided

538
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 1: doing it at times in this tournament, like a couple

539
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 1: of times they tried to make Kaufman Ren beat them

540
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 1: one on one because they're a little bit scared of

541
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 1: the shooting that Purdue had and boy, Duke's got some

542
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:23,880
Speaker 1: absolute gunners around the perimeter. But yeah, Flag's coming off

543
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 1: a really poor scoring effort. I mean, six of sixteen,

544
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:32,160
Speaker 1: that's poor for him against Alabama. His quality of games

545
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 1: are just so good that the bad ones don't even

546
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 1: look that bad. But I think maybe the assists there

547
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 1: four and a half he had seven against Arizona six

548
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 1: against Baylor, downed only three against Bama, but everybody else

549
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 1: was cooking so much they didn't need to play through

550
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 1: him quite as well. And that's not a guy I

551
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 1: expect to have two poor games in a row, So

552
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 1: lean there and then the glass Jay when Roberts over

553
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 1: six and a half rebounds. I know he's a little

554
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 1: undersized relative to the Duke front court, but again the

555
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:02,199
Speaker 1: Flag matchup, I think Clemson got a little bit up

556
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:04,719
Speaker 1: on him with their physicality. Flag only had five rebounds

557
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:07,479
Speaker 1: in that game. Locking and Shefflin both I think had

558
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 1: had big games on the glass. So I leaned towards

559
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 1: Jay when Roberts getting a bunch there, and hopefully his

560
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,919
Speaker 1: ankle is fully healthy after another week off. Yeah right,

561
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:20,120
Speaker 1: Matt any other angles for you? You mentioned the canipple

562
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 1: over three, He's for three pointers over one and a

563
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:26,440
Speaker 1: half at MGM is minus one seventy five, So people

564
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 1: are definitely wise to that. See on James to hit

565
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 1: one is minus one fifty five. I don't I don't

566
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 1: even want to tell the people what Mala watches because

567
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: I don't think he's going to hit one. How about Proctor, Matthew,

568
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 1: he came into this tournament. Tair started on a tear

569
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 1: over two and a half is plus money plus one ten.

570
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 5: Yeah, I said two plus is minus two twenty for

571
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 5: Procter and minus one eighty for Canipple at Vanduel.

572
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 3: This is where it's tough. It's just who go through.

573
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:54,919
Speaker 5: You have to kind of play the matchup game, right,

574
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:58,359
Speaker 5: Houston's guards, who guard too? And then what who do

575
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 5: you value? Is like, you know, is there a wink

576
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 5: link in that.

577
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 3: The wink link? Right?

578
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 1: Yeah?

579
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 5: And I think honestly, he probably gets the Procter matchup.

580
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 5: I don't think he's gonna got Kennedy. You can't match me.

581
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,199
Speaker 5: It's Kniple. I think Kniple can kind of bully him.

582
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 1: I Kiple I think is very James cutting against him and.

583
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 5: Cutting in James size. So maybe, right, maybe Proctor is

584
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 5: actually the more favoral matchup. But we know we've you know,

585
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,639
Speaker 5: Proctor's had a tendency to kind of uh, you know,

586
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 5: hide in some of these big games. I think that's

587
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,040
Speaker 5: changed this year. I think he's really like made that

588
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:31,399
Speaker 5: narrative into a motivational like I'm going to take the

589
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 5: big ones. And he's been confident for most of this

590
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 5: postseason runs. So you're right, Jim, you're as we're workshopping

591
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 5: that you're talking to me and is some Proctor looks

592
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:39,440
Speaker 5: for overs here?

593
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean so really, even like the Clemson game,

594
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 1: he was the guy that carried them through that like

595
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:46,719
Speaker 1: something felt like some of their biggest games where other

596
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 1: guys struggled, it was actually Proctor that stepped up and

597
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 1: roasty occasion last year hen Stens, he stayed in the

598
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 1: Elite eight. Was maybe the worst he's ever played, but

599
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 1: he's gotten a lot of redemption on this this junior

600
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 1: season for him. Okay, that's it for that game. Let's

601
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,679
Speaker 1: take a quick glance at the futures here to win

602
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 1: it all. Duke is the favorite even money right now

603
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:09,359
Speaker 1: at BETMGM. You can probably find a plus one oh

604
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:11,880
Speaker 1: five at some places out there. There was a plus

605
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,159
Speaker 1: one ten at FanDuel on Monday, and it vanished quickly.

606
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 1: People hit that ate that up for the Blue Devils.

607
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,399
Speaker 1: Kyle laughs, Because we were looking at it, weren't we

608
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 1: took it.

609
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll edge, I have three futures on the other team,

610
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 3: so I took the one ten. Yeah.

611
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got future stuff here where I want to

612
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 1: move around my payouts because I believe, as Duke is

613
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 1: indicated by the odds, the most likely to win, and

614
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 1: I want to shift my payout to that. But Florida

615
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 1: right behind it plus two seventy five, given that they

616
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: are the favorite in the other semifinal, that makes sense.

617
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 1: Houston plus four twenty five, Auburn plus five twenty five.

618
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 1: And then, real quick, the matchups guys from bet MGM,

619
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 1: Duke and Florida plus one fifty. That's just a matchup.

620
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 1: You don't have to get the winner. Duke versus Auburn

621
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 1: is plus two to twenty five, Houston versus Florida plus

622
00:28:56,240 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 1: three fifty, Houston versus Auburn plus four seventy five, jump

623
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 1: out of you, mister McEwan.

624
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 3: No, I don't see a ton of value on there

625
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 3: out there on the champ. If you really think Duke

626
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 3: is that dominant, sure, but that's that's nothing there for me.

627
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 5: That's my I think whole narrative of this whole thing

628
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 5: is like you're talking about how these are the four

629
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 5: four League teams, but Duke is being priced like they're

630
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 5: a cut above the rest, and analytically they are Ken Palm.

631
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,960
Speaker 5: They're three points higher in that rating. That doesn't jive

632
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 5: with the I think the general perception. Maybe you guys

633
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 5: agree with that. I kind of think Duke is like

634
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 5: cut above the rest of these teams. I'm not sure

635
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 5: if it's I think the odds are maybe overstating that

636
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 5: gap just because of how consistently dominant they've been against

637
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 5: again ACC and now they've been great in the tournament. Yes,

638
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 5: but I think the Bama matchup was actually one in

639
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 5: hindsight that felt more favorable to them.

640
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 3: I didn't want they'll see in the final four. I'd say,

641
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 3: if you want, I would rather just bet on Moss

642
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 3: outstanding Player, because I think there's four clear choices on

643
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 3: one for each team. I don't see anybody but the

644
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 3: Stars winning this. So if you prefer Houston's actually the

645
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 3: one question mark. But yeah, I would agree there, yes, yeah,

646
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 3: but so like so, if you want a futures take

647
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 3: on this, if you want to take one of them

648
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 3: one at all, just look at the futures market. Broom

649
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 3: seven to one to win player, the player of the tournament,

650
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 3: or the final four, Auburn's five to twenty five to

651
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 3: win the championship. Broom is not going to lose most

652
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 3: out stating player if they went again. This is for

653
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 3: a whole tournament, right, and now it's just final four

654
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,959
Speaker 3: to final four. Yeah, final four this is I think

655
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 3: it's voted on award. It always goes to the star player.

656
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 3: If you recall the Canvas year where uh Bimick should

657
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 3: have won and ag Baji want it.

658
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 1: That somebody else has to be so much better than Flag,

659
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 1: Clayton or Broom for any of those three to lose

660
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:44,600
Speaker 1: it your first team All Americans, they're going to get

661
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 1: the reputation bump from basically every voter. So that's I

662
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 1: would tend to agree with Kyl there. Now the Flag

663
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 1: plus one ten, that's what I'm seeing at bet MGM.

664
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 1: Chop around see if you can find something better. But

665
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 1: the difference there between Duke plus or Duke even money

666
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 1: and Flag plus one ten isn't a lot, but might

667
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 1: be worth looking at. Probably not for us as a

668
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 1: hedge kai, I don't want to have the open and

669
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 1: be open to the Procter thirty point game and somehow

670
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 1: lose it. But yeah, with Clayton and Broom, it would

671
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,239
Speaker 1: be shocking if someone played well enough to overcome their

672
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 1: reputation gap. With Houston, it's a little more questionable. Their

673
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 1: top guys are Crier ten to one, use A sixteen

674
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 1: to one, Sharp twenty five to one, Roberts thirty to one. Really,

675
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 1: any of those guys can have a huge game. Use

676
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 1: In has kind of carried them to this tournament. Crier

677
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,479
Speaker 1: was really bad against Purdue and use An saved them,

678
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 1: So perhaps there is a little bit more balance with them. Kay,

679
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 1: who's your favorite of that grouping? If somebody was diving

680
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 1: into the Houston most outstanding player market.

681
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 3: I'd go Roberts thirty to one or I'd go use

682
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 3: In sixteen to one. Those are my choices. Now, Roberts

683
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 3: may not put up the stats, but I don't know.

684
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 3: They might just default it. He is, I think, their

685
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 3: most important player, and he'll have the ball at the

686
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 3: end of the games if they're in tight situations. Yeah,

687
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 3: they love going to him in the iceop post thing.

688
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 1: Yep, get him going downhill to his left right, that.

689
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 3: Left is crafty. It's funny, man.

690
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 5: Milo's for all. I was skeptical of him. He has

691
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 5: been almost, you know, bulletproof. Two of his last three

692
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 5: have been mortal, and I think maybe he doesn't have

693
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 5: that you know, that name pedigree or that momentum coming

694
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 5: into this. But then we talked about the Roberts injury

695
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 5: could be a concerned Yeah, Houston's tough. I mean I

696
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 5: don't That's one where it's like, if you're betting, if

697
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 5: you like Houston, I almost feel like you just you

698
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 5: bet the Houston team because.

699
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 3: I don't know where the production comes from.

700
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 5: I don't know what the voters would think about, you know,

701
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 5: if they had to pick a winner from that to

702
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 5: a player from that team. But because I think you

703
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 5: guys are about the Roberts is like kind of the

704
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 5: heart and soul guy where there you know, probably be

705
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 5: some momentum to give him like an honorary achievement type

706
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 5: of nod.

707
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 3: And in a sort of sense, I think it's closed.

708
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 1: So yeah, Samson loves him. Samson will tell you he's

709
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 1: like their leader. He's he like cried during Arp Roberts's

710
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 1: senior day thing like like that indicates his value to

711
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 1: the team. But I mean all those guys are good.

712
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 3: And sharp, could hit one hundred threes and when it

713
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 3: could they run guards prior.

714
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's one I wouldn't really mess with just

715
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 1: because I think of the various possibilities within it. So yeah,

716
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 1: I'm not betting much in the most outstanding player market

717
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 1: just because of what we said. With the top players

718
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 1: and the other three teams in Houston being such a

719
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 1: toss up, there isn't really like a wild card that

720
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 1: really intrigues me unless you love Proctor, but I don't

721
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:28,720
Speaker 1: quite love him enough to get there on the on

722
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 1: the duke one flags just unassailable reputation wise with the

723
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 1: number one pick and how well known he is, He's

724
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 1: like the most popular player in college basketball and years

725
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 1: and years.

726
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 5: A week off but four days to rest. Right, it's

727
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 5: the only the second time he's had that break since

728
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 5: his injury. I got to think that helps a little bit, right,

729
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 5: that he's looked like injured, but certainly has to help.

730
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, how good was he against Arizona? Goodness, just like

731
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 1: a virtuoso type of game. I would expect more of

732
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 1: that level performance than the Alabama game, where he looked

733
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 1: like just a really good all conference guy instead of

734
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 1: the best player in the sport. All right, That wraps

735
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 1: it up. So the overall means definitely a Houston lean

736
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 1: from the group at five, despite how invincible Duke has

737
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 1: looked at times. Houston kind of sets up with their

738
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,759
Speaker 1: physicality half court play as being a tough matchup for them,

739
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 1: and then leans more to the overs. I think in

740
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 1: the Florida Auburn game, in terms of props, nobody's betting

741
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: a sider total quite in that game, as we think

742
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 1: the numbers.

743
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:31,279
Speaker 3: Are pretty sharp.

744
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 1: But I might add something on Florida if Broom kind

745
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 1: of comes out that he's not moving well, or if

746
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 1: we see him Kai at open practice on Friday and

747
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 1: he doesn't look great, so we'll try to get boots

748
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:44,879
Speaker 1: on the ground. And of course, mister McEwan, we will

749
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 1: be scouting the inflation of the balls, the tightness of

750
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 1: the rims or we'll have that coming to you from

751
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:51,760
Speaker 1: at THREEMW Underscore CBB.

752
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,719
Speaker 5: The A Tabernus venue is at jim It's big, but

753
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 5: not like it's.

754
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:02,879
Speaker 1: Not the Superdome and Orleans right or the Lucas Oil Stadium. Yeah,

755
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 1: so we'll see. I'm excited to check that out because man,

756
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 1: the balls in the rims seem to have a huge

757
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 1: influence on totals in all the regions this year, so

758
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to take a look at that. Once

759
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,719
Speaker 1: we get boots on the ground, that is it. I

760
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 1: believe this is our final BBOC episode of the season,

761
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 1: So thank you everybody for tuning in. Thank you to

762
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:27,240
Speaker 1: Matt and Kai for all their wonderful handicapping work this season.

763
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 1: It's a pleasure. Always enjoyed being on this feed with

764
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,839
Speaker 1: Stuckey and Mike and Greg and all the boys at

765
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 1: Action Network. So thank you to Matt and David behind

766
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:40,320
Speaker 1: the scenes are wonderful producers. And that wraps it up. Folks.

767
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 1: Enjoy this historic final four. Hopefully we get some elite games.

768
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 1: Best to buck you er head course shots.

769
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 4: And Mascott spuzz a Beta.

770
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:03,800
Speaker 3: So much fall, keep cheering.

771
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:09,400
Speaker 2: Disappearing freshman with a hot hand shoots and scores that

772
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:11,360
Speaker 2: s arches fault.

773
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 4: Satup you prior, Oh no, no mad go little madness

774
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 4: in my eye, st me out my moment jump that

775
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 4: s arches fault.

776
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:35,319
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

777
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

778
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,839
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred.

779
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 4: Gambler