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Speaker 1: Welcome everyone. That's the first edition of Fair Territory for

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. We've got a lot to talk about today.

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Speaker 1: Why because still a lot in this sport is unresolved,

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Speaker 1: Still a lot of free agents out there, still trades

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Speaker 1: to be made, still rosters that are incomplete. So we're

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Speaker 1: going to start by talking about the free agent market

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Speaker 1: and the Athletics initial list of the top forty free

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Speaker 1: agents as compiled by Tim Britton and Aaron Gleeman. Of

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Speaker 1: those forty of the forty top free agents that those

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Speaker 1: guys listed at the start of the off season, twenty three,

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Speaker 1: twenty three of the forty remain unsigned. That's a majority.

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Speaker 1: And we're sitting here it's early January. There's plenty of

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Speaker 1: time until spring training, but there is a lot again

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Speaker 1: that needs to happen in the next five to six weeks.

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Speaker 1: So who are the top remaining free agents. Well, the

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Speaker 1: top three on the Athletics list were Shoheyotani, Aaron Nola,

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Speaker 1: and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Those three are gone, but let's look

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Speaker 1: at the top remaining guys because there are still a

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Speaker 1: number of big time players left. We can start with

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Speaker 1: Cody Bellinger, He's number four on Tim and Aaron's list,

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Speaker 1: Blake Snell number five, Jordan Montgomery number six, Matt Chapman

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Speaker 1: number eight. What do these four players all have in common,

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Speaker 1: you might ask, They all have the same agent. It's

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Speaker 1: Scott Boris, and Scott Boris routinely proceeds at his own

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Speaker 1: pace in free agency. Sometimes he will sign guys quickly.

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Speaker 1: We've seen that a couple of times with players this offseason.

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Speaker 1: Nick Martinez was one, and sometimes he will wait and

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Speaker 1: let the market come to him or let it develop

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Speaker 1: at its own pace. In the case of Snell and Montgomery,

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Speaker 1: Yamamoto had to go first. In the case of Bellinger

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Speaker 1: and Chapman to some degree, they were related to Otani,

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Speaker 1: who was the best position player available on the market.

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Speaker 1: But at the same time, their markets should be pretty clear,

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Speaker 1: and these teams that are interested in those players should

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Speaker 1: be ready to go. Ditto for Snell in Montgomery. So

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Speaker 1: it's just a matter of who is going to get

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Speaker 1: these guys, how the negotiations are going to proceed, and

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Speaker 1: what exactly Boris's strategy will be with these players. Now

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Speaker 1: I mentioned twenty three of the top forty three ends

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Speaker 1: according to the athletic remain unsigned. Here's another fun fact

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Speaker 1: for you as we assess the market. There are only

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Speaker 1: three position players besides Otani, three that have received contracts

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Speaker 1: of three years or more. Three free agent position players

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Speaker 1: contracts of three years or more. Here they are Junghuli

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Speaker 1: six years, one hundred and thirteen million with the Giants,

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Speaker 1: Heimer Candelario three years forty five million with the Reds Lords,

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Speaker 1: Gariel Junior three years forty two million with the Diamondbacks. Now,

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Speaker 1: you might think that is a really weird low number,

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Speaker 1: and it is, but it's a real coflection of something

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Speaker 1: that frankly, we haven't talked enough about this offseason, and

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Speaker 1: that is the weakness of this market for starting pitchers.

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Speaker 1: It's pretty good, for relievers, it's okay. For position players

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Speaker 1: outside of Otani, not so great. And that's why you've

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Speaker 1: seen only three of those players so far. Three of

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Speaker 1: the free agent position players signed contracts of three years

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Speaker 1: or more. We should get a few others. Bellinger will

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Speaker 1: get three years or more. Chapman should get three years

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Speaker 1: or more. I would think Tayl Hernandez might, Jorg Solaire might.

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Speaker 1: Both those guys are thirty one. But this has not

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Speaker 1: been a great free agent market. You've had some really

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Speaker 1: big names at the top, Otani and Yamamoto. You've had

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Speaker 1: Aaron Nola who did really well, and Blakesdell certainly a

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Speaker 1: two time cy Young Award winner, Jordan Montgomery postseason hero

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Speaker 1: for the Texas Rangers. But overall, not a great group.

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Speaker 1: So we're looking at a free agent market that has

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Speaker 1: yet to fully take We're looking at a number of

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Speaker 1: players who are still available in trade, starting pitchers in particular.

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Speaker 1: I'm talking yes about Dylan Cees, possibly Corbyn Bruns, Shane

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Speaker 1: Bieber if he gets moved. The Marlins have starting pitchers

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Speaker 1: to possibly trade. The Mariners have starting pictures to possibly trade.

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Speaker 1: We have a lot of things still circulating, still in

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Speaker 1: play now. It's all going to develop. I don't know

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Speaker 1: will Corbyn Burns indeed be traded. I don't know Dylan

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Speaker 1: Cees I would say yes. Bieber is a little bit

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Speaker 1: more uncertain though it certainly is something that guardians would consider.

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Speaker 1: But overall, again we're sitting here in early January and

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Speaker 1: we're not exactly sure about where all these bodies are

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Speaker 1: going to land. We do know a few things though.

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Speaker 1: We do know that there are still certain teams with

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Speaker 1: huge needs, glaring needs, I would say, and these are

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Speaker 1: big market teams. I'm not talking about the Pittsburgh Pirates

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Speaker 1: or the Oakland Ades, who have obvious needs. I'm talking

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Speaker 1: about teams that will spend money, want to spend money,

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Speaker 1: but have yet to fully address what they intended to

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Speaker 1: do this offseason. Let's look at five of those teams.

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Speaker 1: This list is not all inclusive. If I'm missing your team,

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Speaker 1: don't have a cow. But these are five teams certainly

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Speaker 1: with things to do. The Giants will start with them.

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Speaker 1: I've got listed here starting pitcher, shortstop, right handed, corner infielder,

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Speaker 1: and bullpen. Now, I don't know that they're going to

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Speaker 1: do all of that, but they'll do some of it.

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Speaker 1: Shortstops interesting with them. Marco Luciano is a top prospect,

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Speaker 1: the guy they like, but I'm not sure they want

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Speaker 1: to play him at that spot, such a pivotal spot

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Speaker 1: in a year in which they are trying to make

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Speaker 1: a lot of progress. You don't want to necessarily entrust

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Speaker 1: a rookie who is not necessarily a great defender in

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Speaker 1: that particular role. Now, as we continue on in this list,

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Speaker 1: the Red Sox They've done some things. Yes, they've added

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Speaker 1: Lucas Giolito, subtracted Chris Sale. We'll talk more about that

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Speaker 1: trade later in the program. But they still need a

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Speaker 1: top of the rotation starter. The Yankees still need a

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Speaker 1: starting pitcher. They've got Garrett Cole, but they've got Cortes

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Speaker 1: and Rodin coming off injury marked seasons. They've got Clark Schmid,

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Speaker 1: who is a below average starter. Need a starting pitcher,

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Speaker 1: didn't get Yamamoto. The Cubs have yet to sign a

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Speaker 1: free agent to a major league contract this offseason. A

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Speaker 1: left handed hitter to replace Bellinger, that's one, Maybe another

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Speaker 1: left handed hitter in a trade, and maybe a starting

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Speaker 1: pitcher to replace Marcus Stroman. And finally, the Orioles. The

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Speaker 1: Orioles have signed Craig Kimberl to supplement their bullpen and

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Speaker 1: replace Felix Bautista, who will be out this season after

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Speaker 1: undergoing Tommy John surgery. But the Orioles have still not

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Speaker 1: added the top of the rotation starter that they need.

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Speaker 1: I don't expect them to sign Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery.

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Speaker 1: Those pictures are likely going to be beyond where they

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Speaker 1: want to spend. Could they be a player for Dylan Sees.

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Speaker 1: They should be a player for Dylan Sees. Perhaps one

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Speaker 1: of the Seattle stars, perhaps one of the Miami starters.

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Speaker 1: But the Orioles need someone on top of Bradish and Rodriguez.

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Speaker 1: At the very least, they need to replace Kyle Gibson's

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Speaker 1: one hundred and ninety two innings. So to sum it

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Speaker 1: all up, I'm going back to where I was at

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Speaker 1: the beginning of the program. Here. There is a lot

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Speaker 1: that needs to get done, a lot we'll be talking

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Speaker 1: about in the weeks ahead on fair territory, on foul territory.

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Speaker 1: There's just a lot that needs to be resolved. Time

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Speaker 1: now for the inside dish. This is the part of

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Speaker 1: the show where I go inside a story I've written,

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Speaker 1: inside a trend in the game, or maybe off the

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Speaker 1: board entirely. But this week I want to talk about

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Speaker 1: the one big move that happened between Christmas and New

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Speaker 1: Year's There are a lot of things that happened. Actually,

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Speaker 1: Mitch Garver signed, Kevin Kiermeier signed, but the biggest move

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Speaker 1: was clearly the trade of Chris Sale from the Red

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Speaker 1: Sox to the Braves for Vaughan Grissom. This move is

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Speaker 1: interesting for a lot of reasons. And I wrote about

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Speaker 1: it in The Athletic on Tuesday night. It's still up

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Speaker 1: there on Wednesday if you want to check it out.

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Speaker 1: And I wrote about it from the Braves perspective, because

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Speaker 1: the Braves, to me, have had a fascinating off season.

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Speaker 1: They're pretty much done now. They've made a ton of moves.

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Speaker 1: Money's been flying everywhere, They've been sending it with players,

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Speaker 1: getting it with other players, and they've increased their payroll

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Speaker 1: by probably some forty million dollars. And yet some of

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Speaker 1: that increase is just natural due to salaries that are

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Speaker 1: rising among the players that they have, and some of

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Speaker 1: it is due to the moves that they've made. They

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Speaker 1: essentially bought Jared Kealenick from the Mariners. They did that.

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Speaker 1: He's going to be their left fielder, and now with Sale,

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Speaker 1: it's not a move that necessarily increases their payroll. In fact,

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Speaker 1: they're getting him for almost nothing. In terms of the

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Speaker 1: finances involved, the Red Sox are covering seventeen of the

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Speaker 1: twenty seven and a half million dollars that Chris Sale

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Speaker 1: is due in twenty twenty four, and of the other

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Speaker 1: ten and a half million, ten million of that is

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Speaker 1: not going to get paid. It's deferred into untill two

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Speaker 1: thousand and thirty nine. I don't expect Alexanthopolis will be

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Speaker 1: president of Baseball Operations of the Braves then not his problem.

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Speaker 1: So essentially Sale comes for five hundred thousand dollars, but

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Speaker 1: it cost them a promising hitter Von Grissom. Now von

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Speaker 1: Grissom I know is the exept velocities weren't great last

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Speaker 1: year when he was in the major leagues. But most

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Speaker 1: people in baseball believe he will hit, and the Red

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Speaker 1: Sox are going to install him in second base and

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Speaker 1: feel pretty good about that. For Chris Sale, that's a

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Speaker 1: good return. I don't know that there's any question about that.

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Speaker 1: But my bigger question is with the Braves and where

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Speaker 1: is the rotation going in twenty twenty four and what

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Speaker 1: is it looking like in twenty twenty five and beyond.

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Speaker 1: In twenty four you might say, whoa, it looks pretty

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Speaker 1: good Freed and Strider and Sale and Charlie Morton. The

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Speaker 1: only problem with that is each of those pitchers has

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Speaker 1: had injury issues in recent years. Not so much Strider.

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Speaker 1: I should exclude him from that. Freed certainly had he

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Speaker 1: had the forearm last year. Charlie Morton's forty years old.

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Speaker 1: For heaven's sake, he's been relatively healthy since joining the

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Speaker 1: Braves in twenty twenty one, and say we know of

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Speaker 1: his injury history. Now the good news for the Braves.

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Speaker 1: You look at the other candidates on this list. They

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Speaker 1: have a number of other candidates. They signed Rinaldo Lopez

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Speaker 1: with the idea of giving him a chance to start.

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Speaker 1: Bryce Elder brilliant in the first half last year, was

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Speaker 1: an all star, then he faded in the second half.

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Speaker 1: And then you've got two prospects. Aj Smith showf whe

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Speaker 1: we saw him a little bit, Hurston Wald rep. And

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Speaker 1: then two guys coming off Tommy John who osco Ioah

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Speaker 1: will be ready by spring training, Ian Anderson possibly June

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Speaker 1: or July. So you look at them and they've got depth.

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Speaker 1: But what happens at the deadline if things aren't going smoothly,

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Speaker 1: and indeed they might not be going smoothly, right with

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Speaker 1: these pictures, the injury risks that are involved. And then

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Speaker 1: beyond twenty twenty four, let's go fast forward a year.

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Speaker 1: What happens now next year twenty twenty five? Freed, in

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Speaker 1: my opinion, is almost certain to leave as a free agent.

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Speaker 1: He's going to be priced out of where the Braves

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Speaker 1: want to be. Charlie Morton at that point, who knows

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Speaker 1: if he'll be effective, who knows if he'll want to pitch?

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Speaker 1: He'll be forty one and Chris Sale. The Braves do

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Speaker 1: have a twenty million dollar club option on him, which

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Speaker 1: if he pitches well, will be great. But will he

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Speaker 1: pitch well enough for them to justify picking up that option.

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Speaker 1: Will he pitch well enough to indeed be the playoff

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Speaker 1: starter that they envision. It's a worthwhile gamble for them,

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Speaker 1: certainly because Vaughan grism was blocked pretty much everywhere. He

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Speaker 1: was a safety net for Jared Kellenick, but not much

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Speaker 1: more than that. And at the same time, it's a

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Speaker 1: risky trade. So for the Braves, I'm a little worried.

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Speaker 1: And it's interesting I noticed the comments on the article.

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Speaker 1: A lot of Braves fans were saying, Hey, no reason

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Speaker 1: to doubt Alexanthropolis. He has been mostly brilliant since taking

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Speaker 1: over as President of Baseball Operations. No argument, Operas has

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Speaker 1: done a tremendous job. He has mostly identified the right

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Speaker 1: players at the right times, and there is every reason

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Speaker 1: for Braves fans to feel confident about that. Again, Jared Kalenick,

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Speaker 1: I still believe will be a really good player in

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Speaker 1: the major leagues. Chrissell, I'm not as sure about. But

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Speaker 1: there were some good signs last year. There were some

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Speaker 1: good things that he did. Strikeout rate was up, he

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Speaker 1: did make twenty starts. I know he had some issues,

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Speaker 1: but at the same time we saw not the old Chrissale,

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Speaker 1: but certainly at times a competent, quality major league pitcher.

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Speaker 1: And don't forget the Braves also have added to their

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Speaker 1: bullpen with Ray Kerr and of course Aaron Bummer. So

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Speaker 1: it's going to be an interesting season for the Braves

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Speaker 1: to see all this play out. For the Red Sox,

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Speaker 1: we discussed them earlier and we'll discuss them again right here.

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Speaker 1: I do like Grissom at second base, and their infield

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Speaker 1: right now looks pretty good Cassis, Grissom, Story Devers. That's

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Speaker 1: a presentable group for sure. The rotation is still a

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Speaker 1: work in progress, and I mentioned they've swapped out Giorledo

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Speaker 1: for sale or swapped in Gilido for sale, I should say.

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Speaker 1: And here's other rotation probably looks right now Brian Beao,

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Speaker 1: Lucas Giolito, Nick Pavetta, Tanner, Howck Cutter Crawford. Now that

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Speaker 1: is not a horrible group, but what is it missing.

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Speaker 1: Clearly a top of the rotation. Guy Montgomery could be that.

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Speaker 1: Blake Snell could be that, though I'm not sure sure

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Speaker 1: the Red Sox will want to go on down that path.

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Speaker 1: They could even make a trade. There's certainly a team

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Speaker 1: that right now is in position with their farm system

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Speaker 1: to do some things with their young players, maybe even

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Speaker 1: acquire a Dylan Ceese or a Corbyn Burns. They're in

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Speaker 1: position to do that. At the same time, I want

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Speaker 1: to see it happen. And we've talked a lot about

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Speaker 1: how Red Sox chairman Tom Werner at the start of

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Speaker 1: the off season said the team is going full throttle.

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Speaker 1: We have not really seen them go full throttle just yet.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of half throttled at this point. But the

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Speaker 1: off season is not over, and the Red Sox again

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Speaker 1: still have the opportunities in free agency and in trade

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Speaker 1: to significantly upgrade that rotation. And if they do that,

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Speaker 1: there's suddenly a lot more interesting in twenty twenty four

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Speaker 1: time now for dude and dork of the Week due

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Speaker 1: to the week is one of my favorite Dudes of

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Speaker 1: the Week that we've had. It's someone that I've known

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Speaker 1: for a long time. It's someone that a lot of

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Speaker 1: fans have a lot of fondness for. It's someone that

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Speaker 1: is dealing with something right now that is really difficult,

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Speaker 1: but he's coming through it. And if you haven't read

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Speaker 1: Matt Gilb's story on Charlie Manuel yet, i advise you

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Speaker 1: that as soon as you're done listening or watching this

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Speaker 1: show to go read it. Charlie Manuel suffered a stroke

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Speaker 1: and after suffering his stroke, he had a hard time talking.

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Speaker 1: It's one of the things that sometimes happens when a

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Speaker 1: person has a stroke, and Charlie Manuel is someone who

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Speaker 1: loves to loves to talk about baseball, and it's interesting.

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Speaker 1: We've kind of teased Charlie over the year for his

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Speaker 1: tortured syntax at times, but Charlie Manuel is a really

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Speaker 1: bright guy who knows exactly what he's saying and when

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Speaker 1: he was a manager, knew exactly what he was doing. Well,

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Speaker 1: if you read the story by Matt, Charlie is coming

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Speaker 1: out of it and he's kind of gaining strength with

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Speaker 1: his voice and all of the things that he needs

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Speaker 1: to do recovering from a stroke. And the story was

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Speaker 1: beautifully written by Matt. It was also inspiring. So Charlie

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Speaker 1: Manuel due to the week, and it's really great to

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Speaker 1: name him due to the week, knowing that he is

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Speaker 1: on the road to recovery, in fact, kind of completing

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Speaker 1: the road to recovery. Dork of the Week. Now, I

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Speaker 1: hate to give Dork of the Week to a colleague

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Speaker 1: of mine at Fox, but I want you to watch

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Speaker 1: this gender reveal involving David Ortiz, and I want you

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Speaker 1: to pay attention to this great hitter. And what we

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Speaker 1: see here is a swing and a myth. Now, thankfully

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Speaker 1: somebody popped the balloon or did whatever it was, and

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Speaker 1: we see that it's going to be a boy. That

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Speaker 1: Poppy is going to be the father of a boy.

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Speaker 1: But man, he missed the ball Poppy, Come on, man,

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Speaker 1: I know you're forty eight, you can still hit. Let's

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Speaker 1: go David Ortiz a loving dork of the Week. Time

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Speaker 1: now for Grill and Ken. Let's get to your questions.

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Speaker 1: First one this week comes from Stoke, who asks, Hi, Ken,

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Speaker 1: what do you think is the most underrated signing so far?

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Speaker 1: This offseason. This is a good question, and I thought

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Speaker 1: about Edward Rodriguez a little bit. Four years, eighty million

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Speaker 1: with the Diamondbacks. It's not a bad signing in my opinion.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna go well with Gallon and Merril Kelly. But

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Speaker 1: the guy I'm going to choose is someone who is

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Speaker 1: one of the better hitters in the game when healthy.

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Speaker 1: He signed a two year, twenty four million dollar deal

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Speaker 1: with the Mariners, and his name is Mitch Garver, and

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Speaker 1: Mitch Garver is most likely not going to catch very

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Speaker 1: much for the Mariners. I would expect to be a DH,

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Speaker 1: which is what he was most of the time with Texas.

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Speaker 1: The Mariners, of course, have Cal Rawley, one of the

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Speaker 1: great catchers in the game right now. They picked up

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Speaker 1: Sebbi Zavala, who will be their backup. So Garver looms

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Speaker 1: is a DH. But for two years, twenty four million,

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Speaker 1: it seems to me that's a pretty good deal. Next

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Speaker 1: question comes from Boston Badasses. Boston Badasses ass can the

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Speaker 1: Socks replace Jansen internally? Secondly, what is his real value

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Speaker 1: on the trade market. I don't know that Kenllen Jansen

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Speaker 1: would be easy to replace internally. He had a good

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Speaker 1: season last year. It was twenty nine of thirty three

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Speaker 1: save opportunities, about a three six ERA and about forty

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Speaker 1: five innings. He is someone who is still performing at

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Speaker 1: age thirty six at a really high level. Now trade value.

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Speaker 1: I believe he has some trade value now. It's one year,

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Speaker 1: sixteen million, that's what he has left on his contract.

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Speaker 1: And because he is still performing in a role that

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Speaker 1: few people can perform at very well. Kellen Janssen, I

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Speaker 1: would imagine would at least bring the Red Sox a

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Speaker 1: solid prospect, not an elite prospect, the top one hundred guy,

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Speaker 1: but someone that they can maybe plug into their farm

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Speaker 1: system and envision as a major leaguer in the future.

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Speaker 1: Last question comes from old school PlayStation fanboy Gary. Like

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Speaker 1: your handle, Gary, Gary asks Nick Krawl, gam of the Reds,

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Speaker 1: says the Reds are basically done by or Sell. Jonathan

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Speaker 1: India will be playing on this contending Reds club in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. Interesting question, Gary, and well timed. Nick

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Speaker 1: Krawl said earlier this week that he does not expect

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Speaker 1: the Reds to make any more major moves. They've added

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Speaker 1: Mantas and Nick Martinez to their rotation, done some other things,

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Speaker 1: and he thinks that that is pretty much it. I

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Speaker 1: forgot Candelario. They've also added him. And Candelario is relevant

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Speaker 1: here because he adds to the Reds crowded infield mix.

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Speaker 1: They essentially have with India six guys for five spots

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Speaker 1: if you include the DH I'm talking about Candelario, Dela Cruz,

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Speaker 1: Matt McClain, Jonathan India, Noel Vie Marte and Christian and

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Speaker 1: Carnasio Strand that's six. They've got Spencer Steer. Really he

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Speaker 1: would be seven, but he's going to move to the

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Speaker 1: outfield now. Nick Kral has said that he likes the

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Speaker 1: idea of depth, that injuries will occur. We do know that,

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Speaker 1: and that he likes having the extra guys available. But

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Speaker 1: as Trent Rosecrans and I wrote back when Elie Delacruz

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Speaker 1: came up, much to the dismay of Kirk Herbstreet, Jonathan

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Speaker 1: India remains the odd man out here, and he's projected

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Speaker 1: an arbitration to make about three point seven million. I

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Speaker 1: don't know that he has much trade value. He's a

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Speaker 1: league average hitter and a below average defender at second base,

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Speaker 1: so it seems to me that he likely will open

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Speaker 1: the season at second base or somewhere in the infield

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Speaker 1: with the Rets perhaps bound around a little bit. Long term,

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Speaker 1: I don't see his future. There too many good young

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Speaker 1: players who are squeezing him out of the picture. So

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Speaker 1: will India open the season and be part of the

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Speaker 1: contending Reds in twenty twenty four? He means a lot

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Speaker 1: to that team. He's kind of the heart and soul

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Speaker 1: of that Reds roster, but he is getting squeezed again

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Speaker 1: by more talented and younger players. Want to thank everyone

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Speaker 1: for their questions. Thanks to everyone for listening, for watching.

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Speaker 1: You know where to find us YouTube, Apple, Spotify, Like Subscribe.

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Speaker 1: We will be back next Monday. We are going to

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Speaker 1: go strong in twenty twenty four.

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