1 00:00:11,657 --> 00:00:14,937 Speaker 1: You're listening to The Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure 2 00:00:14,937 --> 00:00:17,977 Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or 3 00:00:17,977 --> 00:00:21,697 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everybody, Welcome to another 4 00:00:21,697 --> 00:00:24,697 Speaker 1: episode of The Buck Sexton Show, a deep dive on 5 00:00:24,897 --> 00:00:28,657 Speaker 1: all things China right now. And for that we have 6 00:00:29,257 --> 00:00:33,217 Speaker 1: the perfect guest, Gordon Chang. He's the author of The 7 00:00:33,537 --> 00:00:37,057 Speaker 1: Coming Collapse of China as well as the Great US 8 00:00:37,257 --> 00:00:40,777 Speaker 1: China Tech War. He's a great following on Twitter as well. 9 00:00:40,857 --> 00:00:44,257 Speaker 1: Gordon g. Chang, Gordon, my friend. Good to have you back, sir, 10 00:00:44,337 --> 00:00:47,257 Speaker 1: good to see it. Thank you so much. But this 11 00:00:47,337 --> 00:00:51,177 Speaker 1: will be fun. So the biggest news right now with 12 00:00:51,217 --> 00:00:54,377 Speaker 1: regard to China is and something that came up of 13 00:00:54,417 --> 00:01:00,497 Speaker 1: the weekend, how worried should we be about Chinese military 14 00:01:00,657 --> 00:01:03,977 Speaker 1: support to Russia in the Ukraine War? And I want 15 00:01:03,977 --> 00:01:06,297 Speaker 1: to dive into what that could look like. But what 16 00:01:06,377 --> 00:01:10,377 Speaker 1: do you see it as right now? Gordon? China has 17 00:01:10,417 --> 00:01:14,417 Speaker 1: been supplying military assistance from the very beginning of this war, Buck, 18 00:01:15,297 --> 00:01:18,497 Speaker 1: but China has picked up the pace now. The Breaking 19 00:01:18,577 --> 00:01:23,497 Speaker 1: Defense website reports that almost every day, and antonoff An 20 00:01:23,617 --> 00:01:27,177 Speaker 1: one twenty four, which is the biggest cargo plane in 21 00:01:27,177 --> 00:01:31,097 Speaker 1: the World leaves Jung Joe, which is in central China, 22 00:01:31,137 --> 00:01:34,977 Speaker 1: and it goes to Russia. It turns off its transponder 23 00:01:35,137 --> 00:01:38,377 Speaker 1: when it leaves. I mean it's carrying ammunition and other 24 00:01:38,457 --> 00:01:42,577 Speaker 1: high consumption rate items. This follows reports that China has 25 00:01:42,617 --> 00:01:45,617 Speaker 1: been selling drones, so the Wagner Group, for use in Ukraine, 26 00:01:46,137 --> 00:01:49,257 Speaker 1: and from the get go in this war, China has 27 00:01:49,257 --> 00:01:54,217 Speaker 1: been feeding location data to the Russians. The Ukrainian drone 28 00:01:54,217 --> 00:01:58,417 Speaker 1: operators were using products made in China. That means that 29 00:01:58,497 --> 00:02:02,937 Speaker 1: China knew the location of the Ukrainians. China was sending 30 00:02:02,977 --> 00:02:05,297 Speaker 1: that over to Russia, and then Russia was taking out 31 00:02:05,297 --> 00:02:09,457 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians. That's military assistance. Now we have a series 32 00:02:09,497 --> 00:02:12,697 Speaker 1: of state from Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, and 33 00:02:12,777 --> 00:02:17,697 Speaker 1: others saying, oh, we think China is contemplating supplying lethal 34 00:02:17,737 --> 00:02:21,017 Speaker 1: assistance to Russia. Well, they've already been doing so for 35 00:02:21,177 --> 00:02:23,857 Speaker 1: quite some time, and I think that they owe us 36 00:02:23,897 --> 00:02:26,897 Speaker 1: an explanation why they think that all of these reports 37 00:02:27,697 --> 00:02:33,177 Speaker 1: are untrue, because obviously we are hearing information contradicting what 38 00:02:33,297 --> 00:02:37,017 Speaker 1: the administration is publicly telling the world and the American people. 39 00:02:37,417 --> 00:02:39,257 Speaker 1: Is there a concern Gordon I mean, as you just 40 00:02:39,337 --> 00:02:42,097 Speaker 1: laid out, there's already military support that has been going 41 00:02:42,177 --> 00:02:46,017 Speaker 1: from day one from China to Russia. But is it 42 00:02:46,097 --> 00:02:48,777 Speaker 1: possible in your mind that there could be an escalation 43 00:02:48,857 --> 00:02:53,217 Speaker 1: even on top of that from Shijinping to provide either 44 00:02:53,297 --> 00:02:57,017 Speaker 1: just greater amounts of what's already there, or perhaps more 45 00:02:57,057 --> 00:03:02,337 Speaker 1: advanced weaponry or even Chinese training on certain specific systems. 46 00:03:03,897 --> 00:03:07,297 Speaker 1: There always can be a ramp up in assistance. And 47 00:03:07,537 --> 00:03:10,777 Speaker 1: one of the explanations that I have just guessing, because 48 00:03:11,017 --> 00:03:15,057 Speaker 1: all I'm doing is speculating, is that the administration doesn't 49 00:03:15,137 --> 00:03:18,897 Speaker 1: want to acknowledge the lethal assistance because it's still trying 50 00:03:18,937 --> 00:03:21,897 Speaker 1: to work with China to keep that assistance to the 51 00:03:21,897 --> 00:03:25,777 Speaker 1: bare minimum. And maybe people in the administration think that 52 00:03:25,777 --> 00:03:30,337 Speaker 1: if they publicly confront China that Beijing will increase what 53 00:03:30,457 --> 00:03:34,337 Speaker 1: it sends over to the Russians. I don't know. That's 54 00:03:34,417 --> 00:03:38,257 Speaker 1: not a good strategy. It's not working, and I think 55 00:03:38,257 --> 00:03:44,257 Speaker 1: that it just misunderstands the Chinese way of thinking. We 56 00:03:44,337 --> 00:03:47,377 Speaker 1: have a lot of policies but that sound good to 57 00:03:47,417 --> 00:03:50,857 Speaker 1: the ear like they should work. But for decades we've 58 00:03:50,897 --> 00:03:55,177 Speaker 1: been applying these policies and we now have disastrous results, 59 00:03:55,457 --> 00:03:58,217 Speaker 1: which means obviously we've got to try something new because 60 00:03:58,217 --> 00:04:03,057 Speaker 1: what we've been doing ain't working. What is the Chinese 61 00:04:03,097 --> 00:04:08,297 Speaker 1: interest in Ukraine and in the Ukraine Russia conflict? What 62 00:04:08,657 --> 00:04:14,577 Speaker 1: are they hoping to achieve? Is their strategic objectives? Again 63 00:04:14,697 --> 00:04:18,417 Speaker 1: we have to speculate because I think that ultimately what 64 00:04:18,457 --> 00:04:24,777 Speaker 1: they're doing is counterproductive. But obviously they see themselves on 65 00:04:24,817 --> 00:04:28,577 Speaker 1: the same page with Vladimir Putin. Cejumping and Putin, they 66 00:04:28,657 --> 00:04:31,497 Speaker 1: view the world in the same terms. They identify the 67 00:04:31,537 --> 00:04:36,217 Speaker 1: same enemy, which is us, and I think Siejumping finds 68 00:04:36,257 --> 00:04:38,737 Speaker 1: Putin to be very useful because he's willing to go 69 00:04:38,777 --> 00:04:41,977 Speaker 1: out and really put us on the back foot. You know, 70 00:04:42,017 --> 00:04:46,377 Speaker 1: the more that we expend resources in Ukraine, the fewer 71 00:04:46,417 --> 00:04:49,657 Speaker 1: resources we have to defend our friends and allies in 72 00:04:49,857 --> 00:04:52,537 Speaker 1: East Asia. So that's part of it as well. We're 73 00:04:52,617 --> 00:04:57,417 Speaker 1: being bled and we're being distracted. Now I think we 74 00:04:57,537 --> 00:05:00,337 Speaker 1: need to be in Ukraine because the best way to 75 00:05:00,417 --> 00:05:04,097 Speaker 1: deter China over Taiwan for instances, to make sure that 76 00:05:04,537 --> 00:05:07,457 Speaker 1: Putin losers in Ukraine. But the point is we are 77 00:05:07,497 --> 00:05:11,657 Speaker 1: being bled and the Chinese, I think, enjoy watching this. 78 00:05:13,057 --> 00:05:16,937 Speaker 1: What is the what is your response to the assessments 79 00:05:16,937 --> 00:05:18,657 Speaker 1: that are out there now from people that there is 80 00:05:18,697 --> 00:05:23,737 Speaker 1: a just a growing Russia, China Iran axis. You know, 81 00:05:24,017 --> 00:05:26,497 Speaker 1: it harkens back to the axis of evil speech of 82 00:05:26,537 --> 00:05:30,657 Speaker 1: the Bush administration many years ago with Iraq, Iran and 83 00:05:30,697 --> 00:05:34,537 Speaker 1: North Korea. Now it's much bigger, much more important countries 84 00:05:34,537 --> 00:05:37,217 Speaker 1: that people are tying together. What do you make of that. 85 00:05:38,777 --> 00:05:40,777 Speaker 1: I think that's absolutely right, and I think that we 86 00:05:40,897 --> 00:05:45,417 Speaker 1: have to add North Korea and perhaps add a country 87 00:05:45,457 --> 00:05:49,177 Speaker 1: like Algeria. So you put together a lot of these 88 00:05:49,177 --> 00:05:54,137 Speaker 1: countries in the world's dividing into camps. President Biden doesn't 89 00:05:54,177 --> 00:05:57,937 Speaker 1: want to acknowledge that, but it's playing to see. And 90 00:05:57,977 --> 00:06:03,177 Speaker 1: if you don't acknowledge reality, you can't deal with reality. So, yeah, 91 00:06:03,177 --> 00:06:06,257 Speaker 1: the world is dividing, and it is a Cold war, 92 00:06:06,417 --> 00:06:09,897 Speaker 1: and it's a I think, far more dangerous period than 93 00:06:10,337 --> 00:06:13,617 Speaker 1: the Cold War. You know, people say, oh, you know, 94 00:06:13,777 --> 00:06:17,977 Speaker 1: nineteen sixty two Cuban missile crisis the most dangerous moment 95 00:06:18,017 --> 00:06:21,337 Speaker 1: in history. I could argue in say nineteen sixty one, 96 00:06:21,617 --> 00:06:26,137 Speaker 1: the Checkpoint Charlie crisis in Berlin was perhaps even more dangerous. 97 00:06:26,737 --> 00:06:29,617 Speaker 1: But the point is we know from the archives, but 98 00:06:29,977 --> 00:06:34,297 Speaker 1: that neither Khrushchoff nor Kennedy were willing to use nuclear weapons. 99 00:06:35,057 --> 00:06:37,977 Speaker 1: We don't know that about Vladimir Putin. We don't even 100 00:06:38,017 --> 00:06:40,737 Speaker 1: know that about Siejun Ping. And I think that makes 101 00:06:40,897 --> 00:06:44,657 Speaker 1: this the most dangerous moment in history. And because you've 102 00:06:44,657 --> 00:06:47,537 Speaker 1: got that large camp on the other side, there might 103 00:06:47,577 --> 00:06:52,857 Speaker 1: be willing to use nukes. It's just we're not comprehending 104 00:06:53,057 --> 00:06:59,857 Speaker 1: the possibilities. Are there areas of friction between Putin and 105 00:07:00,017 --> 00:07:05,297 Speaker 1: She that US policy or just US action could exploit. 106 00:07:05,337 --> 00:07:08,817 Speaker 1: I mean, how can you make them less cozy together 107 00:07:08,897 --> 00:07:10,817 Speaker 1: so they're less of a threat to the world order 108 00:07:10,857 --> 00:07:15,817 Speaker 1: as we know it. I think that it's theoretically possible, 109 00:07:15,857 --> 00:07:20,977 Speaker 1: but as a practical matter, it is not. These two 110 00:07:21,697 --> 00:07:26,137 Speaker 1: just believe that they find advantage in each other's arms. 111 00:07:26,537 --> 00:07:28,417 Speaker 1: And I don't think that there is anything, as a 112 00:07:28,417 --> 00:07:32,017 Speaker 1: practical matter, we could do to separate them, except to 113 00:07:32,097 --> 00:07:36,097 Speaker 1: perhaps bring down Russia. We do that, We drive it 114 00:07:36,097 --> 00:07:41,457 Speaker 1: out of Ukraine. Yeah, we end that partnership. And you know, 115 00:07:41,537 --> 00:07:47,017 Speaker 1: people will say that's extraordinarily dangerous, And I say, saying 116 00:07:47,097 --> 00:07:50,657 Speaker 1: something is dangerous is not a meaningful objection, because out 117 00:07:50,657 --> 00:07:55,057 Speaker 1: of three decades of truly misguided Russia policy in China policy, 118 00:07:55,457 --> 00:07:59,737 Speaker 1: we have created an extremely perilous situation. There are no 119 00:07:59,857 --> 00:08:02,897 Speaker 1: safe options, and the most dangerous option of all is 120 00:08:02,897 --> 00:08:05,857 Speaker 1: continuing with the policies that created this disaster in the 121 00:08:05,897 --> 00:08:08,897 Speaker 1: first place. So we're going to have to think about, 122 00:08:10,177 --> 00:08:13,377 Speaker 1: you know, the world in very different terms and realize 123 00:08:13,497 --> 00:08:17,097 Speaker 1: that it is perilous. Gordon, I'm gonna ask you about 124 00:08:17,377 --> 00:08:20,657 Speaker 1: China Taiwan here in just a second. But first from 125 00:08:20,657 --> 00:08:24,457 Speaker 1: our sponsor, My Pillow. My Pillow is an amazing company. 126 00:08:24,497 --> 00:08:27,657 Speaker 1: Because of everybody listening to this, you know that these 127 00:08:27,657 --> 00:08:30,137 Speaker 1: are great products. 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But the Geeza Dream Sheets twenty 148 00:09:23,097 --> 00:09:24,857 Speaker 1: out of ninety nine. Get yourself some new sheets. You 149 00:09:24,857 --> 00:09:27,057 Speaker 1: probably need some new sheets at home. My pillow dot 150 00:09:27,057 --> 00:09:33,097 Speaker 1: com promo code b U C K Gordon, China, Taiwan. 151 00:09:34,137 --> 00:09:38,017 Speaker 1: Let's start with this. Is China, after seeing the situation 152 00:09:38,177 --> 00:09:43,337 Speaker 1: in Ukraine, less likely to invade in well, we'll say 153 00:09:43,337 --> 00:09:47,697 Speaker 1: a five year timetable because they see all the trouble 154 00:09:47,897 --> 00:09:51,417 Speaker 1: that Ukraine, that Russia has had in Ukraine, or more 155 00:09:51,537 --> 00:09:55,897 Speaker 1: likely because they feel the US is distracted and doesn't 156 00:09:55,897 --> 00:09:58,537 Speaker 1: have the stomach for a fight. In addition, on the 157 00:09:59,057 --> 00:10:04,857 Speaker 1: Eastern Front, so to speak. I think that this is 158 00:10:04,977 --> 00:10:09,297 Speaker 1: just guessing, but I think China is less deterred than 159 00:10:09,337 --> 00:10:13,937 Speaker 1: it was before. Now. William Burns, the CIA director, a 160 00:10:13,977 --> 00:10:17,577 Speaker 1: couple of days ago, actually said that China is more 161 00:10:17,657 --> 00:10:22,177 Speaker 1: deterred seeing Russia's problems in Ukraine, and the Chinese, we know, 162 00:10:22,377 --> 00:10:26,497 Speaker 1: are looking very closely at Russia's experience. But you got 163 00:10:26,497 --> 00:10:31,177 Speaker 1: to remember, you know, the happy talk in Washington is 164 00:10:31,777 --> 00:10:34,737 Speaker 1: the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people have convinced the 165 00:10:34,857 --> 00:10:40,657 Speaker 1: Chinese not to invade Taiwan because they worried about similar resistance. 166 00:10:41,217 --> 00:10:44,097 Speaker 1: And you know, I think there's something to that, But 167 00:10:44,177 --> 00:10:46,537 Speaker 1: we got to look at the rest of the situation, 168 00:10:46,697 --> 00:10:52,657 Speaker 1: and that is there was a failure of deterrence in 169 00:10:52,857 --> 00:10:58,537 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. We saw the coalition that was a 170 00:10:58,657 --> 00:11:02,617 Speaker 1: raid against Russia, the United States, the twenty seven nations 171 00:11:02,617 --> 00:11:05,977 Speaker 1: of the European Union, in Great Britain had an economy 172 00:11:06,137 --> 00:11:10,257 Speaker 1: twenty five point one times larger than Russia's in twenty 173 00:11:10,417 --> 00:11:14,377 Speaker 1: twenty one, and yet we fail to stop the Russian invasion. 174 00:11:15,777 --> 00:11:21,537 Speaker 1: That is, I perhaps the biggest failure of deterrence since 175 00:11:21,577 --> 00:11:25,817 Speaker 1: the Second World War. And I think China's seen that. 176 00:11:25,937 --> 00:11:30,457 Speaker 1: I think that that reinforces the notion in Chinese minds that, 177 00:11:31,377 --> 00:11:35,017 Speaker 1: as Siejumping's favorite phrases, the East is rising and the 178 00:11:35,057 --> 00:11:38,977 Speaker 1: West is declining. And c has actually thought for a 179 00:11:39,097 --> 00:11:41,817 Speaker 1: very long time the United States is in terminal decline. 180 00:11:42,377 --> 00:11:45,257 Speaker 1: So he sees the failure of deterrence. He sees the 181 00:11:45,337 --> 00:11:50,577 Speaker 1: United States not still being deterred by Russia because we're 182 00:11:50,577 --> 00:11:54,617 Speaker 1: not supplying the assistance that Ukraine needs to win. And 183 00:11:54,657 --> 00:11:57,497 Speaker 1: he can sees that the threats to use nuclear weapons 184 00:11:58,297 --> 00:12:01,617 Speaker 1: have prevented the West from actually coming to the aid 185 00:12:01,697 --> 00:12:05,617 Speaker 1: of Ukraine in the way that we need to. So 186 00:12:06,617 --> 00:12:08,937 Speaker 1: you put all that together, and I think on balance, 187 00:12:09,057 --> 00:12:13,217 Speaker 1: the Chinese believe that they've got a bigger, bigger green 188 00:12:13,297 --> 00:12:17,737 Speaker 1: light to invade. How we don't know how formidable gordon 189 00:12:18,457 --> 00:12:22,817 Speaker 1: are the Taiwanese defense forces in the face of a 190 00:12:22,857 --> 00:12:27,457 Speaker 1: possible Chinese full scale invasion, and also what would it 191 00:12:27,497 --> 00:12:28,897 Speaker 1: take to get well, let's I want to ask you 192 00:12:28,897 --> 00:12:31,137 Speaker 1: about Japan as well, but let's just start with how 193 00:12:31,177 --> 00:12:35,497 Speaker 1: does Taiwan stack up against those initial critical days of 194 00:12:36,217 --> 00:12:40,417 Speaker 1: Chinese forces in an amphibious landing, crossing the straits and 195 00:12:41,177 --> 00:12:47,417 Speaker 1: invading Taiwan doesn't stack up very well because it has 196 00:12:47,457 --> 00:12:51,737 Speaker 1: the wrong types of weapons, and that's the fault of 197 00:12:51,817 --> 00:12:56,657 Speaker 1: some Taiwan general officers who asked to buy the wrong things. 198 00:12:57,137 --> 00:12:59,737 Speaker 1: And it's also the fault of the Pentagon for pushing 199 00:12:59,897 --> 00:13:04,937 Speaker 1: on Taiwan some of the wrong weapons. Taiwan needs cruise 200 00:13:05,017 --> 00:13:11,137 Speaker 1: missiles and it also needs submarines, and we have not 201 00:13:11,577 --> 00:13:15,377 Speaker 1: been willing to sell them submarines. We've been slow walking 202 00:13:15,617 --> 00:13:20,337 Speaker 1: arms sales, as Representative Gallagher said after he just returned 203 00:13:20,337 --> 00:13:26,617 Speaker 1: from Taiwan. So you know, Ukraine needs F sixteens, but 204 00:13:26,657 --> 00:13:30,097 Speaker 1: I don't think Taiwan needs F sixteens because there's gonna 205 00:13:30,097 --> 00:13:34,657 Speaker 1: be no airfield left in Taiwan. You know, after the 206 00:13:34,697 --> 00:13:37,977 Speaker 1: first couple hours of a Chinese bombardment, we're not going 207 00:13:38,017 --> 00:13:40,097 Speaker 1: to have any air fields left in the region either. 208 00:13:40,417 --> 00:13:45,497 Speaker 1: But that's another story. The point is that Taiwan can 209 00:13:45,537 --> 00:13:49,057 Speaker 1: maybe stop the Chinese for a little while, but they're 210 00:13:49,057 --> 00:13:52,617 Speaker 1: going to need help from their friends. Gordon, you raise 211 00:13:52,697 --> 00:13:56,337 Speaker 1: something I think is important for people to know. There 212 00:13:56,337 --> 00:14:00,577 Speaker 1: may be this conception of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 213 00:14:00,657 --> 00:14:06,297 Speaker 1: looks like some you know, obviously massive air aerial strikes 214 00:14:06,377 --> 00:14:09,217 Speaker 1: beforehand to try to soften up the target the island 215 00:14:09,257 --> 00:14:14,657 Speaker 1: of Taiwan and then naval flotilla, amphibious landing craft and 216 00:14:14,657 --> 00:14:17,537 Speaker 1: they just try to occupy and overrun the forces. But 217 00:14:17,817 --> 00:14:20,057 Speaker 1: you seem to indicate it it could be a lot 218 00:14:20,097 --> 00:14:24,257 Speaker 1: broader than that. What does if you were to invasion 219 00:14:24,297 --> 00:14:27,017 Speaker 1: and I know, look, the Pentagon does war gaming all 220 00:14:27,017 --> 00:14:28,977 Speaker 1: the time, whether the right or wrong. They don't know 221 00:14:29,057 --> 00:14:32,137 Speaker 1: until the bullets start flying. Right, if you were war gaming, 222 00:14:32,457 --> 00:14:36,057 Speaker 1: what a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would look like. What 223 00:14:36,177 --> 00:14:39,657 Speaker 1: happens in those first we'll call those first seventy two hours. 224 00:14:42,537 --> 00:14:45,657 Speaker 1: First of all, I think that maybe for six months 225 00:14:45,737 --> 00:14:48,817 Speaker 1: we don't know that an invasion has started. Because a 226 00:14:48,937 --> 00:14:52,697 Speaker 1: Chinese invasion of Taiwan may not start with war in 227 00:14:52,777 --> 00:14:56,737 Speaker 1: space or you know, a massive aerial bombardment of Taiwan. 228 00:14:57,017 --> 00:15:01,137 Speaker 1: It can start with this. The dissemination of a pathogen 229 00:15:01,217 --> 00:15:05,537 Speaker 1: in Taiwan, you know, just weakened Taiwan's ability to defend 230 00:15:05,577 --> 00:15:09,017 Speaker 1: itself with the disease. You know, We've got a lot 231 00:15:09,057 --> 00:15:12,017 Speaker 1: of smart American war planners who say, oh, don't worry 232 00:15:12,057 --> 00:15:14,977 Speaker 1: about all this. We know, you know, we'll have months 233 00:15:14,977 --> 00:15:18,617 Speaker 1: of notice of an invasion. I'm not sure that that's 234 00:15:18,657 --> 00:15:21,697 Speaker 1: the case. Because you know, we've got American war planners 235 00:15:21,697 --> 00:15:25,457 Speaker 1: who assume that Chinese war planners think like American war planners, 236 00:15:26,377 --> 00:15:30,537 Speaker 1: and so I don't know if that's the case. I 237 00:15:30,577 --> 00:15:34,337 Speaker 1: think that we could very well have this long period. 238 00:15:35,617 --> 00:15:38,777 Speaker 1: It's sort of prepping the battlefield, so to speak. We 239 00:15:38,857 --> 00:15:44,417 Speaker 1: could have sabotage events throughout Taiwan which people may not know, 240 00:15:44,537 --> 00:15:49,137 Speaker 1: or sabotage you know, derailments, chemical fires, all the rest 241 00:15:49,137 --> 00:15:51,257 Speaker 1: of it, the stuff we see in the US for instance. 242 00:15:52,137 --> 00:15:56,337 Speaker 1: So first, the first moments of a war may not 243 00:15:56,457 --> 00:15:59,617 Speaker 1: be evident for quite some time. But when it really 244 00:15:59,657 --> 00:16:02,577 Speaker 1: goes kinnectic, I think we're going to see a lot 245 00:16:02,617 --> 00:16:05,577 Speaker 1: of our assets in space taken down. We'll see a 246 00:16:05,657 --> 00:16:10,017 Speaker 1: bombardment of Okinawa and Guam. We'll see a naval blockade 247 00:16:10,177 --> 00:16:13,857 Speaker 1: which includes sovereign Japanese islands, because remember the island of 248 00:16:13,937 --> 00:16:19,857 Speaker 1: Yanagumi is actually south of Taipei, and for a Chinese 249 00:16:19,937 --> 00:16:22,377 Speaker 1: invasion to be successful, they've got to have a blockade. 250 00:16:22,577 --> 00:16:25,217 Speaker 1: For a blockade to be successful, it's got to include 251 00:16:25,537 --> 00:16:30,257 Speaker 1: Yanagumi and other Japanese islands. So this gets really ugly 252 00:16:30,457 --> 00:16:33,417 Speaker 1: really fast. And one other thing, buck sorry for going on, 253 00:16:33,497 --> 00:16:39,217 Speaker 1: but well, go on, go on. The first kinetic element 254 00:16:39,337 --> 00:16:41,817 Speaker 1: of a Chinese attack could be the use of tactical 255 00:16:41,977 --> 00:16:45,217 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons. I mean, everyone says how hard it is 256 00:16:45,257 --> 00:16:47,737 Speaker 1: to have a cross Straits invasion. You'd have to have 257 00:16:47,857 --> 00:16:51,257 Speaker 1: combined land air sea operations, which the Chinese have never 258 00:16:51,257 --> 00:16:54,497 Speaker 1: done in their history. How do you avoid that, Well, 259 00:16:54,737 --> 00:16:59,337 Speaker 1: you use tactical nukes and you force in the Chinese mind, 260 00:16:59,377 --> 00:17:02,137 Speaker 1: you force everyone to back off because they don't want 261 00:17:02,137 --> 00:17:05,297 Speaker 1: to get nuked as well. Do you think there's a 262 00:17:05,377 --> 00:17:09,417 Speaker 1: chance that they would also? Are there any US assets 263 00:17:09,457 --> 00:17:11,177 Speaker 1: in the region that they would go for with the 264 00:17:11,217 --> 00:17:14,737 Speaker 1: idea that while it maybe US territory, it's not quite 265 00:17:15,137 --> 00:17:17,417 Speaker 1: you know, it's not quite the Fifty States. Do you 266 00:17:17,417 --> 00:17:19,057 Speaker 1: think they might hit Guam? Do you think they might 267 00:17:19,097 --> 00:17:23,377 Speaker 1: try to go after some US Pacific assets? Absolutely? And 268 00:17:23,537 --> 00:17:27,417 Speaker 1: in Okinawa, they got to take out Okinawa. They cannot 269 00:17:27,457 --> 00:17:33,137 Speaker 1: afford to have the large US military presence there left intact. 270 00:17:33,897 --> 00:17:36,177 Speaker 1: So if you're going to go after Guam, you might 271 00:17:36,177 --> 00:17:42,017 Speaker 1: as well go after American bases in Japan, and you 272 00:17:42,057 --> 00:17:46,057 Speaker 1: probably will have the North Koreans engage in some sort 273 00:17:46,097 --> 00:17:52,417 Speaker 1: of provocative activity to draw off the United States. So yeah, 274 00:17:52,457 --> 00:17:56,977 Speaker 1: there's just to be clear, you could foresee or at 275 00:17:57,057 --> 00:18:00,097 Speaker 1: least you could find plausible we'll put it that way. Gordon. 276 00:18:00,137 --> 00:18:01,697 Speaker 1: I'm not you know, no one can predict the future, 277 00:18:01,777 --> 00:18:04,377 Speaker 1: and that's very clear, but you know, it is important 278 00:18:04,417 --> 00:18:07,217 Speaker 1: to understand what the possibilities are in order to plan 279 00:18:07,297 --> 00:18:10,497 Speaker 1: for them. You could foresee a situation where a Chinese 280 00:18:10,497 --> 00:18:15,817 Speaker 1: invasion of Taiwan also coincides with North Korean what just 281 00:18:16,457 --> 00:18:19,137 Speaker 1: military action, maybe not an invasion, but military action of 282 00:18:19,177 --> 00:18:24,937 Speaker 1: some kind strikes, artillery strikes, etc. Against South Korea, absolutely, 283 00:18:25,337 --> 00:18:31,577 Speaker 1: because what better way to divert the United States. And 284 00:18:31,977 --> 00:18:35,417 Speaker 1: so there could be all sorts of things that are occurring. 285 00:18:36,297 --> 00:18:39,657 Speaker 1: And also it could be sabotage by Chinese agents in 286 00:18:39,697 --> 00:18:43,777 Speaker 1: the US, which I think would probably occur pretty much 287 00:18:43,777 --> 00:18:46,377 Speaker 1: at the same time. So this is not going to 288 00:18:46,457 --> 00:18:49,297 Speaker 1: be limited. I want to ask you about Chinese influence 289 00:18:49,337 --> 00:18:52,337 Speaker 1: in the United States Gordon in just a second. 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That 317 00:20:12,577 --> 00:20:17,337 Speaker 1: phone number is one eight hundred LifeLock. Gordon. There's a 318 00:20:17,337 --> 00:20:20,577 Speaker 1: lot of attention that people pay to Chinese influence in 319 00:20:20,617 --> 00:20:25,017 Speaker 1: this country with regard to a few things Hollywood and 320 00:20:25,137 --> 00:20:29,017 Speaker 1: the way that it's clear the media industrial complex here, 321 00:20:29,057 --> 00:20:32,577 Speaker 1: the entertainment complex in America doesn't want to offend China. 322 00:20:32,857 --> 00:20:37,977 Speaker 1: That includes occasionally professional athletes, the NBA notably not wanting 323 00:20:37,977 --> 00:20:43,697 Speaker 1: to upset Beijing. And then some tie in to Hunter Biden, 324 00:20:43,817 --> 00:20:46,057 Speaker 1: the son of the President of the United States, getting 325 00:20:46,057 --> 00:20:49,497 Speaker 1: a whole lot of money from Chinese Communist Party backed 326 00:20:49,577 --> 00:20:53,217 Speaker 1: business interests in China. I wanted you to to sort 327 00:20:53,257 --> 00:20:56,017 Speaker 1: of lay out for everyone in the scope of how much, 328 00:20:56,617 --> 00:21:00,537 Speaker 1: from the elites on down, what kind of control an 329 00:21:00,577 --> 00:21:06,137 Speaker 1: influence operation does China have in the US. China for 330 00:21:06,257 --> 00:21:09,257 Speaker 1: decades has been trying to buy off elements of the 331 00:21:09,297 --> 00:21:15,097 Speaker 1: American society, and they've been extremely successful. As you've been 332 00:21:15,137 --> 00:21:21,297 Speaker 1: talking about on November twenty eight, twenty twenty, Joe Biden 333 00:21:21,337 --> 00:21:24,577 Speaker 1: was elected president, but before he took office, a Chinese 334 00:21:24,577 --> 00:21:28,857 Speaker 1: academic d Dong Shong gave a live stream lecture in 335 00:21:28,857 --> 00:21:32,337 Speaker 1: Shanghai got a lot of play throughout China, and d 336 00:21:32,697 --> 00:21:37,457 Speaker 1: talked about how China was controlling outcomes at the highest 337 00:21:37,537 --> 00:21:41,057 Speaker 1: levels of the American political system. He said that China 338 00:21:41,897 --> 00:21:44,897 Speaker 1: was able to get what it wanted up until Trump. 339 00:21:45,417 --> 00:21:49,737 Speaker 1: It mentioned that the Chinese levers of influence during the 340 00:21:49,737 --> 00:21:54,617 Speaker 1: Trump administration were broken, but how China was looking forward 341 00:21:54,777 --> 00:22:01,257 Speaker 1: to exercising control after Biden took office. And when Dee 342 00:22:01,377 --> 00:22:04,897 Speaker 1: talked about Hunter Biden, everybody in the live audience in 343 00:22:04,937 --> 00:22:10,857 Speaker 1: Shanghai was snickering, so you can see what the Chinese thing. Also, 344 00:22:10,937 --> 00:22:15,377 Speaker 1: D said there was no American politician who could resist China, 345 00:22:15,537 --> 00:22:18,737 Speaker 1: and every American could be bought. Now, I'm not saying 346 00:22:18,777 --> 00:22:22,617 Speaker 1: that what D's assessment was correct. I actually think it wasn't. 347 00:22:22,977 --> 00:22:26,137 Speaker 1: But the point is that's what the Chinese think, and 348 00:22:26,577 --> 00:22:31,097 Speaker 1: that shows you how pervasive Chinese influence in the United 349 00:22:31,137 --> 00:22:34,977 Speaker 1: States is. And by the way, those levers of influence 350 00:22:35,097 --> 00:22:38,577 Speaker 1: that D talked about, that he was exercising both before 351 00:22:38,737 --> 00:22:43,897 Speaker 1: and would exercise after Trump two things Wall Street and 352 00:22:44,257 --> 00:22:49,777 Speaker 1: Henry Kissinger. Just one other thing. The thing about Eric 353 00:22:49,857 --> 00:22:54,737 Speaker 1: Swalwell was the Chinese. And I'm not saying that he 354 00:22:54,857 --> 00:22:59,417 Speaker 1: was treacherous or anything, because I don't know. And I 355 00:22:59,457 --> 00:23:02,497 Speaker 1: also believe that being targeted by China's Ministry of State 356 00:23:02,577 --> 00:23:07,617 Speaker 1: Security is not a sin, because that means everybody in 357 00:23:07,697 --> 00:23:11,457 Speaker 1: Congress would be a sinner. But the point is that 358 00:23:11,777 --> 00:23:15,057 Speaker 1: they Chinese first contact a swallowal not when he was 359 00:23:15,097 --> 00:23:18,257 Speaker 1: in on the House Intelligence Committee, which would obviously be 360 00:23:18,337 --> 00:23:21,617 Speaker 1: of great importance for China. They first contacted him when 361 00:23:21,657 --> 00:23:26,177 Speaker 1: he was on the City Council of Dublin City, California. 362 00:23:26,377 --> 00:23:30,137 Speaker 1: That means that they have not just one Swallowell. That 363 00:23:30,257 --> 00:23:33,417 Speaker 1: means they must have hundreds or thousands of swallow Wells. 364 00:23:33,617 --> 00:23:37,937 Speaker 1: That shows you how pervasive their operations are. So they're 365 00:23:37,937 --> 00:23:41,057 Speaker 1: going for influence operations not just obviously at the White 366 00:23:41,097 --> 00:23:43,537 Speaker 1: House level, but as you point out, all the way 367 00:23:43,577 --> 00:23:46,217 Speaker 1: all the way down and then on the corporate side, 368 00:23:46,217 --> 00:23:49,577 Speaker 1: because that's an area where you know, whether it's Disney 369 00:23:49,697 --> 00:23:55,657 Speaker 1: or Paramount Pictures or National Basketball Association, clearly companies have 370 00:23:56,297 --> 00:24:02,377 Speaker 1: a sensitivity about to say Chinese interests, Chinese Communist Party dogma, right. 371 00:24:02,377 --> 00:24:04,937 Speaker 1: I mean, it's not they're not worried about offending the 372 00:24:04,977 --> 00:24:07,057 Speaker 1: man on the streets so to speak, in Beijing. They 373 00:24:07,057 --> 00:24:10,057 Speaker 1: don't want to upset the powers that be in China 374 00:24:10,137 --> 00:24:13,977 Speaker 1: and lose access to those markets. How much, how much 375 00:24:13,977 --> 00:24:16,057 Speaker 1: money is at staken things like that, I mean, what 376 00:24:16,057 --> 00:24:17,777 Speaker 1: what were to happen, What would happen to some of 377 00:24:17,777 --> 00:24:20,977 Speaker 1: these companies if Shiji and Ping said no, not you, 378 00:24:20,977 --> 00:24:25,217 Speaker 1: you're out. Well, we're already starting to see that buck 379 00:24:25,297 --> 00:24:28,577 Speaker 1: because Cijumping has in fact been saying that. But you know, 380 00:24:28,657 --> 00:24:33,337 Speaker 1: obviously the NBA would lose its entire China market. Um. 381 00:24:34,217 --> 00:24:38,897 Speaker 1: The Hollywood studios, Um, they already losing, you know, a 382 00:24:38,977 --> 00:24:41,977 Speaker 1: large part of the market because Beijing has been promoting 383 00:24:42,017 --> 00:24:45,857 Speaker 1: local films making it difficult for foreign films to be shown. 384 00:24:46,457 --> 00:24:49,097 Speaker 1: But you know, Hollywood still is very much on board 385 00:24:49,177 --> 00:24:55,217 Speaker 1: with China. Um. Fortunately the movie Maverick Top Gun um 386 00:24:55,297 --> 00:24:59,537 Speaker 1: has sort of convinced Hollywood that you don't necessarily need 387 00:24:59,577 --> 00:25:03,777 Speaker 1: the Chinese market. Um. But this is not only this 388 00:25:03,857 --> 00:25:07,457 Speaker 1: is this is a question of Sijumping forcing American companies 389 00:25:07,457 --> 00:25:10,457 Speaker 1: and other companies out of China. A good job. Maverick 390 00:25:10,497 --> 00:25:12,137 Speaker 1: not allowed in China, Gordon, I didn't know that, but 391 00:25:12,257 --> 00:25:15,097 Speaker 1: they didn't allow that movie in. Yeah, I don't think 392 00:25:15,097 --> 00:25:18,737 Speaker 1: it was allowed in Remember the issue though, was the 393 00:25:18,817 --> 00:25:24,297 Speaker 1: patches on right, Yeah, yeah, the Taiwan you know, the 394 00:25:24,337 --> 00:25:30,097 Speaker 1: Taiwan message there. So really what Beijing, what Hollywood was saying, 395 00:25:30,177 --> 00:25:31,857 Speaker 1: was look, we don't care, We're going to do this. 396 00:25:32,057 --> 00:25:33,697 Speaker 1: You know where you let your film in or not. 397 00:25:35,057 --> 00:25:38,617 Speaker 1: But American films have not done that well in China 398 00:25:39,097 --> 00:25:42,577 Speaker 1: recently because Beijing has really started to put the clamps 399 00:25:42,617 --> 00:25:44,937 Speaker 1: down on them. So, yeah, they still have a market. 400 00:25:44,977 --> 00:25:47,697 Speaker 1: It's still considered to be important in Hollywood, but I 401 00:25:47,697 --> 00:25:52,017 Speaker 1: think it'll become less important as Beijing seeks to really 402 00:25:52,057 --> 00:25:54,537 Speaker 1: control what the Chinese people see to a greater extent 403 00:25:54,537 --> 00:25:57,057 Speaker 1: than they've done in the past. I want to come 404 00:25:57,097 --> 00:25:59,017 Speaker 1: in in just a second here and ask you about 405 00:25:59,257 --> 00:26:03,737 Speaker 1: what's going on inside of China with in terms of stability, 406 00:26:03,777 --> 00:26:07,097 Speaker 1: political stability, the economy Hong Kong. We'll get to that 407 00:26:07,137 --> 00:26:09,737 Speaker 1: in just a second. But work from our sponsor here, 408 00:26:10,137 --> 00:26:13,017 Speaker 1: the Towers Foundation, born from the tragedy of nine to eleven, 409 00:26:13,017 --> 00:26:15,897 Speaker 1: The tunnel of the Towers Foundation has been honoring America's heroes. 410 00:26:15,937 --> 00:26:19,377 Speaker 1: Ever since, the Foundation honors fallen and severely injured heroes 411 00:26:19,417 --> 00:26:22,337 Speaker 1: and their families with mortgage free homes. This year alone, 412 00:26:22,377 --> 00:26:24,977 Speaker 1: hundreds of Gold Star on fallen first responder families with 413 00:26:25,057 --> 00:26:28,337 Speaker 1: young children, and our nation's most severely injured veterans and 414 00:26:28,377 --> 00:26:33,017 Speaker 1: first responders are receiving homes. 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There was all this 431 00:27:20,377 --> 00:27:25,937 Speaker 1: media attention on the threat of Hong Kong being essentially 432 00:27:26,457 --> 00:27:30,137 Speaker 1: consumed by the Chinese Communist Party, losing its special status 433 00:27:30,177 --> 00:27:33,057 Speaker 1: for all intents and purposes. What ended up happening there? 434 00:27:33,057 --> 00:27:35,457 Speaker 1: What's the status of Hong Kong and the freedoms that 435 00:27:35,457 --> 00:27:40,577 Speaker 1: it was supposed to have today? Yeah, just for some background, 436 00:27:41,057 --> 00:27:44,617 Speaker 1: Beijing promised fifty years of a high degree of autonomy 437 00:27:44,657 --> 00:27:47,297 Speaker 1: for Hong Kong in the one Country, two systems formula 438 00:27:47,697 --> 00:27:51,337 Speaker 1: starting from July one, nineteen ninety seven, when Britain, as 439 00:27:51,417 --> 00:27:54,897 Speaker 1: they say, handed over Hong Kong to the People's Republic. 440 00:27:55,257 --> 00:27:59,257 Speaker 1: This was a pursuant to a treaty. China has clearly 441 00:27:59,377 --> 00:28:02,497 Speaker 1: violated that treaty. It's now running Hong Kong lock stock 442 00:28:02,537 --> 00:28:07,937 Speaker 1: and barrel, and it has done so since basically twenty twenty. 443 00:28:08,417 --> 00:28:11,137 Speaker 1: You were referring to the big protests of twenty nineteen. 444 00:28:11,537 --> 00:28:15,097 Speaker 1: Sejumping decided that he was going to take over Hong Kong. 445 00:28:15,297 --> 00:28:18,257 Speaker 1: They did that with their National Security Law, which was 446 00:28:18,377 --> 00:28:21,817 Speaker 1: basically called the End of law in Hong Kong, and 447 00:28:21,977 --> 00:28:25,697 Speaker 1: right now, Hong Kong in many respects, it is actually 448 00:28:25,817 --> 00:28:30,017 Speaker 1: less free than the mainland itself. Certainly it's more dangerous 449 00:28:30,057 --> 00:28:33,137 Speaker 1: for foreigners because we don't know exactly where the line is. 450 00:28:34,217 --> 00:28:39,937 Speaker 1: So yeah, Hong Kong has been smothered by Beijing. And 451 00:28:40,417 --> 00:28:44,697 Speaker 1: also we had mentioned before we brought in North Korea 452 00:28:44,737 --> 00:28:48,417 Speaker 1: to the conversation. We don't hear that much about North 453 00:28:48,497 --> 00:28:51,337 Speaker 1: Korea these days, and we didn't during the Trump administration 454 00:28:51,417 --> 00:28:57,457 Speaker 1: because of the the outreach, the discussion conversations between Kim 455 00:28:57,537 --> 00:29:02,457 Speaker 1: Jong un and then President Donald Trump. What is North 456 00:29:02,537 --> 00:29:07,497 Speaker 1: Korea up to right now? Has a situation deteriorated when 457 00:29:07,537 --> 00:29:10,897 Speaker 1: it comes to US interest which really are in Japanese 458 00:29:10,937 --> 00:29:15,817 Speaker 1: and US interests in the region. Jesion pain keep North 459 00:29:15,897 --> 00:29:18,777 Speaker 1: Korea ready at a moment's notice to cause trouble, to 460 00:29:18,817 --> 00:29:23,697 Speaker 1: throw the international community off balance. What's going on? First 461 00:29:23,697 --> 00:29:27,617 Speaker 1: of all on their missile program and their nuclear weapons program. 462 00:29:27,817 --> 00:29:32,417 Speaker 1: Those are proceeding, and you know the Biden North Koreans 463 00:29:32,417 --> 00:29:36,897 Speaker 1: will fire off intercontinental ballistic missiles. Those are violations of 464 00:29:37,097 --> 00:29:43,337 Speaker 1: UN Security Council resolutions, and we complain about it. Over 465 00:29:43,377 --> 00:29:46,337 Speaker 1: the last one we call the Security Council meeting, we 466 00:29:46,377 --> 00:29:51,817 Speaker 1: don't do anything. So this really is this is the 467 00:29:51,897 --> 00:29:56,537 Speaker 1: United States. We are not vigorously enforcing our sanctions against 468 00:29:56,537 --> 00:30:01,577 Speaker 1: North Korea, and more important, we're not enforcing our sanctions 469 00:30:01,577 --> 00:30:06,377 Speaker 1: against China and Russia, which is busting those sanctions. You know, 470 00:30:06,817 --> 00:30:13,137 Speaker 1: North Korea relies on exports sales. That remains that they're 471 00:30:13,177 --> 00:30:17,577 Speaker 1: getting dollars China is Chinese banks are laundering those dollars 472 00:30:17,617 --> 00:30:21,537 Speaker 1: through our financial system. Buck We know about this, and 473 00:30:21,617 --> 00:30:26,817 Speaker 1: we do nothing to stop China from doing that. So 474 00:30:26,977 --> 00:30:30,457 Speaker 1: this is shame on us because we didn't allow Pablo 475 00:30:30,577 --> 00:30:33,697 Speaker 1: Escobar to run money through New York, but we're allowing 476 00:30:33,697 --> 00:30:37,497 Speaker 1: the Chinese to do so inside North Korea. Right now, 477 00:30:38,377 --> 00:30:40,737 Speaker 1: they don't have a famine like they did in the 478 00:30:40,737 --> 00:30:43,737 Speaker 1: middle of the nineteen nineties, but there is a severe 479 00:30:43,817 --> 00:30:48,217 Speaker 1: shortage of food. They didn't recover very well from COVID. 480 00:30:48,777 --> 00:30:52,417 Speaker 1: There's a lot that we do not know. But basically, 481 00:30:52,537 --> 00:30:57,697 Speaker 1: Kim Jong un is able to survive and we're not. 482 00:30:58,017 --> 00:31:01,617 Speaker 1: We could, we could affect that situation, but we've decided 483 00:31:01,697 --> 00:31:04,457 Speaker 1: not to do so because after the outreach of diplomacy 484 00:31:04,577 --> 00:31:07,777 Speaker 1: during the Trump administration, Biden has gone back to a 485 00:31:07,857 --> 00:31:11,577 Speaker 1: policy you could generally call strategy patients, which is basically 486 00:31:11,617 --> 00:31:18,257 Speaker 1: ignoring the North Koreans. Gordon, how is China doing with 487 00:31:18,337 --> 00:31:23,577 Speaker 1: regard to COVID right now? I know that they've had 488 00:31:23,697 --> 00:31:26,177 Speaker 1: obviously the most extreme lockdowns of any country in the world, 489 00:31:26,257 --> 00:31:28,577 Speaker 1: stretching back for a long time. But I think people 490 00:31:28,577 --> 00:31:31,977 Speaker 1: were pretty surprised in this country to hear that China 491 00:31:32,057 --> 00:31:36,457 Speaker 1: was still having extreme lockdowns well as of the last 492 00:31:36,537 --> 00:31:41,337 Speaker 1: six months. What's going on? Yeah, China had a zero 493 00:31:41,377 --> 00:31:44,577 Speaker 1: COVID policy, which was a policy meant to prevent any 494 00:31:44,617 --> 00:31:47,857 Speaker 1: transmission of the disease, and it was, as you say, 495 00:31:48,937 --> 00:31:52,737 Speaker 1: the most extreme set of disease control measures anywhere, or 496 00:31:52,777 --> 00:31:55,737 Speaker 1: maybe anywhere outside of North Korea. It's not entirely clear, 497 00:31:56,097 --> 00:31:59,137 Speaker 1: but the point is that they had these large quarantine camps, 498 00:31:59,177 --> 00:32:02,697 Speaker 1: Stanley testing, all the rest of it. On December seventh, 499 00:32:02,897 --> 00:32:07,737 Speaker 1: the National Health Commission in China enacted its ten point plan, 500 00:32:07,857 --> 00:32:11,817 Speaker 1: which was essentially the abandonment of zero COVID, and they 501 00:32:11,897 --> 00:32:16,977 Speaker 1: let the disease rip and even by Beijing's own estimates, 502 00:32:17,017 --> 00:32:19,737 Speaker 1: about eighty percent of the population has now been infected 503 00:32:19,777 --> 00:32:24,137 Speaker 1: by COVID, probably more by the end of this winner 504 00:32:24,217 --> 00:32:27,297 Speaker 1: they'll be somewhere, maybe one or two million deaths. We 505 00:32:27,417 --> 00:32:33,217 Speaker 1: don't know, but clearly this has been China has had 506 00:32:33,257 --> 00:32:38,057 Speaker 1: its COVID epidemic in the beginning and now at the end, 507 00:32:38,257 --> 00:32:40,177 Speaker 1: as we've seen in the last couple of months or so, 508 00:32:40,977 --> 00:32:43,577 Speaker 1: and they'll get over it because this is omicron it's 509 00:32:43,617 --> 00:32:47,497 Speaker 1: pretty mild, but nonetheless China was not prepared for this, 510 00:32:47,817 --> 00:32:50,457 Speaker 1: and the Chinese people are pretty upset at the way 511 00:32:50,497 --> 00:32:53,457 Speaker 1: that the government has handled it. What are the chances 512 00:32:53,457 --> 00:32:56,537 Speaker 1: in your mind, Gordon, that we could wake up in 513 00:32:57,377 --> 00:33:00,897 Speaker 1: a week, a month, a year and Xijing Ping is 514 00:33:00,937 --> 00:33:04,657 Speaker 1: no longer the Chinese premiere for reasons other than his 515 00:33:04,737 --> 00:33:13,257 Speaker 1: own natural health and demise. That's a great question. In October, 516 00:33:13,337 --> 00:33:16,057 Speaker 1: at the twentieth National Congress of the Communist Party, where 517 00:33:16,137 --> 00:33:19,737 Speaker 1: cijun Ping got his precedent breaking third term as General Secretary, 518 00:33:20,217 --> 00:33:27,177 Speaker 1: everyone or almost everybody said that he was unchallenged. Since 519 00:33:27,217 --> 00:33:32,257 Speaker 1: that time, Buck, we have seen reversals of his signature 520 00:33:32,337 --> 00:33:36,897 Speaker 1: policies like common prosperity, zero COVID as we talked about 521 00:33:38,057 --> 00:33:42,297 Speaker 1: crackdowns on certain businesses, and so that has led people 522 00:33:42,337 --> 00:33:45,737 Speaker 1: to believe that perhaps cijing Ping is not as powerful 523 00:33:45,857 --> 00:33:51,417 Speaker 1: or influential as he first thought. The Chinese political system 524 00:33:51,417 --> 00:33:55,417 Speaker 1: has gotten more opaque, if that were possible, So there's 525 00:33:55,577 --> 00:33:58,777 Speaker 1: less that we know about it, and we can only 526 00:33:58,817 --> 00:34:01,857 Speaker 1: guess from these policy reversals that there's turmoil at the 527 00:34:01,857 --> 00:34:06,337 Speaker 1: top of the Communist Party, because otherwise c would have 528 00:34:06,337 --> 00:34:09,177 Speaker 1: been able to enforce his will and make sure that 529 00:34:09,217 --> 00:34:12,657 Speaker 1: his policies we're not reversed. So I think that there 530 00:34:12,857 --> 00:34:17,137 Speaker 1: is a real problem. That he's clearly the most powerful, 531 00:34:17,337 --> 00:34:22,017 Speaker 1: but that doesn't mean he's as powerful as he once was. Gordon. 532 00:34:22,337 --> 00:34:28,497 Speaker 1: Also on the American front, if someone told you right 533 00:34:28,537 --> 00:34:32,137 Speaker 1: now that they were considering traveling to China for you know, 534 00:34:32,137 --> 00:34:36,857 Speaker 1: a US citizen for work or for fun, are there concerns? 535 00:34:36,857 --> 00:34:40,617 Speaker 1: I mean, for example, right now, if someone told me, hey, Buck, 536 00:34:40,897 --> 00:34:43,217 Speaker 1: I want to go to Russia. I've never seen Moscow, 537 00:34:43,377 --> 00:34:45,497 Speaker 1: I want to go to a Red Square, I would say, 538 00:34:46,177 --> 00:34:50,657 Speaker 1: bad timing, don't do it now. Do I think they 539 00:34:50,457 --> 00:34:54,337 Speaker 1: know by the odds would be okay? Yeah, probably, but 540 00:34:54,457 --> 00:34:56,737 Speaker 1: I certainly wouldn't tell a family member or a friend 541 00:34:56,777 --> 00:35:00,297 Speaker 1: of mine. I think it's wise to go. Do you 542 00:35:00,297 --> 00:35:02,977 Speaker 1: have a similar feeling about China right now or our 543 00:35:03,057 --> 00:35:07,137 Speaker 1: relations still strong enough that American businessmen can feel safe 544 00:35:07,177 --> 00:35:09,257 Speaker 1: going over there and not worry they're going to get 545 00:35:09,257 --> 00:35:14,777 Speaker 1: detained for some made up reason. It hasn't been saved 546 00:35:14,817 --> 00:35:21,097 Speaker 1: for quite some time. Buck He remember when President Trump 547 00:35:22,297 --> 00:35:27,257 Speaker 1: sought Canada, asked Canada to detain Mung Wang Joe, who 548 00:35:27,377 --> 00:35:30,857 Speaker 1: was the chief financial officer of Lahwei Technologies, which is 549 00:35:30,937 --> 00:35:39,537 Speaker 1: China's national champion telecom equipment provider. China just grabbed two 550 00:35:39,537 --> 00:35:43,377 Speaker 1: Canadian citizens, the two Michaels as they're called, and detained 551 00:35:43,377 --> 00:35:46,337 Speaker 1: them for no reason at all, And this obviously was 552 00:35:46,417 --> 00:35:51,217 Speaker 1: in retaliation for China complying with our request for the 553 00:35:51,337 --> 00:35:57,697 Speaker 1: tension of Msmong. Just a couple of just a day 554 00:35:57,777 --> 00:36:03,497 Speaker 1: or so ago, on Sunday, we learned that Balfon, Chinese 555 00:36:03,497 --> 00:36:12,737 Speaker 1: citizen of China Renaissance, a very influential tech financier, was 556 00:36:13,337 --> 00:36:15,857 Speaker 1: cooperating with authorities as the way they was put in. 557 00:36:16,337 --> 00:36:21,337 Speaker 1: He disappeared in the middle of this month and people 558 00:36:21,377 --> 00:36:23,737 Speaker 1: didn't know whether he had fled or whether he was detained. 559 00:36:24,417 --> 00:36:27,737 Speaker 1: He's detained, I mean, there's just no law. So if 560 00:36:27,737 --> 00:36:30,537 Speaker 1: they can do that to someone really powerful in China, 561 00:36:30,577 --> 00:36:33,177 Speaker 1: they can do that to an American citizen, and I 562 00:36:33,217 --> 00:36:36,337 Speaker 1: think the State Department should have an advisory on travel 563 00:36:36,377 --> 00:36:39,697 Speaker 1: to China, which is more than just be careful, It 564 00:36:39,697 --> 00:36:43,257 Speaker 1: should be thou shalt not go, because I think that 565 00:36:43,337 --> 00:36:47,737 Speaker 1: it's not possible for US to protect American citizens who 566 00:36:47,777 --> 00:36:51,737 Speaker 1: have been detained in China for any reason. So unless 567 00:36:51,737 --> 00:36:55,497 Speaker 1: you're traveling on a diplomatic passport, I don't think that 568 00:36:55,577 --> 00:36:59,337 Speaker 1: it's safe to go to China. Gordon, last one for you, 569 00:36:59,897 --> 00:37:04,377 Speaker 1: how is the Biden administration doing on China policy in general? 570 00:37:04,457 --> 00:37:06,897 Speaker 1: What's your honest assessment? What are they getting right? What 571 00:37:06,937 --> 00:37:11,297 Speaker 1: are they getting wrong? What are you worried about? It's 572 00:37:11,337 --> 00:37:15,337 Speaker 1: not been one hundred percent awful, but they're not moving 573 00:37:15,377 --> 00:37:19,337 Speaker 1: fast enough and they're still issuing. Just to give you 574 00:37:19,377 --> 00:37:22,697 Speaker 1: an example, you know, they're still issuing hollow warnings on 575 00:37:22,817 --> 00:37:26,177 Speaker 1: providing leadable assistance. As we talked about, that's a real 576 00:37:26,217 --> 00:37:29,337 Speaker 1: problem because let me give you just a little bit 577 00:37:29,377 --> 00:37:32,977 Speaker 1: of historical analogy as to how dangerous this is. You 578 00:37:33,017 --> 00:37:36,057 Speaker 1: remember England and France we're issuing hollow warnings to the 579 00:37:36,137 --> 00:37:40,457 Speaker 1: Third Reich in the late nineteen thirties, and we know 580 00:37:40,577 --> 00:37:43,777 Speaker 1: that in August of nineteen thirty nine, Britain and France 581 00:37:44,017 --> 00:37:48,457 Speaker 1: told Hitler that they would declare war on Germany if 582 00:37:48,537 --> 00:37:53,377 Speaker 1: Germany invaded Poland. We know from the archives that Hitler 583 00:37:53,377 --> 00:37:55,697 Speaker 1: didn't believe Britain and France. He thought he could invade 584 00:37:55,697 --> 00:37:58,737 Speaker 1: Poland and there would be no general war in Europe. Well, 585 00:37:59,057 --> 00:38:02,497 Speaker 1: Hitler was the most surprised person in September nineteen thirty 586 00:38:02,577 --> 00:38:06,417 Speaker 1: nine because he invaded Poland, and Britain and France actually 587 00:38:06,417 --> 00:38:08,657 Speaker 1: made good on their warnings the first time they had done. 588 00:38:08,657 --> 00:38:12,017 Speaker 1: So that's our problem right now. We are the Britain 589 00:38:12,057 --> 00:38:15,457 Speaker 1: in France. Of our decade, we've been issuing all these 590 00:38:15,457 --> 00:38:19,577 Speaker 1: hollow warnings to China Biden administration and not following up. 591 00:38:19,577 --> 00:38:21,377 Speaker 1: And we have and this is not just Biden, this 592 00:38:21,457 --> 00:38:24,377 Speaker 1: is previous presidents as well. We've taught the Chinese to 593 00:38:24,457 --> 00:38:28,577 Speaker 1: ignore our warnings and eventually the Biden administration is for 594 00:38:28,617 --> 00:38:30,937 Speaker 1: the protection of the American people, is going to have 595 00:38:30,977 --> 00:38:33,257 Speaker 1: to carry through on one of them. The Chinese aren't 596 00:38:33,257 --> 00:38:35,737 Speaker 1: going to believe us. This is going to get ugly. 597 00:38:36,057 --> 00:38:40,457 Speaker 1: This is nineteen thirty nine ugly. And so yes, their 598 00:38:40,537 --> 00:38:43,977 Speaker 1: Biden administration has done some good things, like the CHIP restrictions, 599 00:38:44,017 --> 00:38:48,737 Speaker 1: the restrictions on selling chip making equipment. But it's too slow, 600 00:38:49,257 --> 00:38:51,217 Speaker 1: and we are now at a point where the Biden 601 00:38:51,217 --> 00:38:54,897 Speaker 1: administration is not acknowledging how dangerous this world is, and 602 00:38:54,937 --> 00:38:58,897 Speaker 1: it's engaging in policies that in the past have led 603 00:38:58,977 --> 00:39:03,457 Speaker 1: to great tragedy. Get the US The Great US China 604 00:39:03,617 --> 00:39:07,377 Speaker 1: Tech War, Gordon's latest book, also The Coming Collapse of China, 605 00:39:07,417 --> 00:39:12,377 Speaker 1: and follow Gordon Chang on Twitter. Gordon always enlightening. Thank 606 00:39:12,377 --> 00:39:13,937 Speaker 1: you for being with us. Good to see you. Thank 607 00:39:13,977 --> 00:39:14,697 Speaker 1: you so much. Buck