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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju Us prout

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Speaker 1: read enough. They're up for running a game so smoothe

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Speaker 1: so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Slid sisting, just glorious execution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop offind buddy, And that's why

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Speaker 2: you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody pict the.

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Speaker 3: God up.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The one.

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Speaker 1: It's left to one, the wide eyed drill bibus, how

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Speaker 1: old Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 3: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wonder Goal presented by Bet

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Speaker 3: three sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand.

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Speaker 1: Sign up with promo code.

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Speaker 3: Action to get that three sixty five exclusive sign up

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Speaker 3: offer in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar on

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Speaker 3: any game and get two hundred free. I am BJ

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Speaker 3: Cunningham hosting this episode. Mike Leeboff will be back for

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Speaker 3: our midweek episode. I'm joined by my colleague and Fred

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Speaker 3: Anthony Dubundo and we have match Week four in the

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Speaker 3: Champions League. This is the reverse fixtures of the matches

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Speaker 3: we just saw last week, except at the other venue.

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Speaker 3: We'll start out on Tuesday. We're gonna start in Group E.

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Speaker 3: Group E sets up like this, Salzburg sitting in first

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Speaker 3: place with five points, Chelsea and second with four points

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Speaker 3: Milan and third with four points.

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Speaker 1: Chelsea has the.

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Speaker 3: Tiebreaker and Dinoo Zagreb sitting at the bottom of the

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Speaker 3: table with three points because they beat Chelsea in the

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Speaker 3: first meeting. We start at the Sansio, Milan hosting Chelsea.

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Speaker 3: Milan is plus two hundred, Chelsea is sitting at plus

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Speaker 3: one thirty seven and the draw at plus two forty.

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Speaker 3: Chelsea won this reverse fixture three to nothing. Pretty much

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Speaker 3: dominated the match, especially defensively. Milan only took four shots

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Speaker 3: in the entire match, didn't have a shot up until

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Speaker 3: right before the half. Milan is still missing some guys.

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Speaker 3: They'll get Dale Hernandez back. But it's interesting because I

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Speaker 3: really want to play Chelsea really bad, but the number

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Speaker 3: is just not there for me.

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Speaker 1: Anthony, What do you think for this match?

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Speaker 3: Most importantly, what do you think Milan can actually do

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Speaker 3: to potentially reverse this or is it just going to

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Speaker 3: be another Chelsea runaway?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think Milan has more of a chance at

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Speaker 2: home here in the situation, they can play a little

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Speaker 2: bit more direct through Drew. I think they might find

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Speaker 2: a little more success because they were not able to

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Speaker 2: do anything to play through the Chelsea pressure. At Stanford

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Speaker 2: Bridge whatsoever. Chelsea passes per defensive action below nine, dominated

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Speaker 2: the field till sixty two to thirty seven, dominated the XG,

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Speaker 2: dominated the chances. Really should have been a two to

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Speaker 2: three to zero win pretty comfortably really for Chelsea. When

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Speaker 2: you go back and look at how that match played out.

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Speaker 2: It was interesting that Chelsea rotated a little bit over

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Speaker 2: the weekend. We saw Christian Polistic make a pretty impressive appearance.

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Speaker 2: I thought four shots and a goal for Polis Sick.

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Speaker 2: They benched, Obama Yang came off the bench. But I

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Speaker 2: think it was very pretty much a confirmation of my

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Speaker 2: prior on Milan what we saw last week, which was

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Speaker 2: that Milan does not particularly play well when they're pressed high.

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Speaker 2: When they are forced to make quick decisions and try

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Speaker 2: to play through that pressure, they have not been successful

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Speaker 2: at it. They benefit from Syria not being a high

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Speaker 2: press and possessed type league typically a little bit different stylistically.

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Speaker 2: There's more slow possession build up play that they tend

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Speaker 2: to do better with, and so I'm not really sure

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Speaker 2: what changes for Milan in this match. With that being said,

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Speaker 2: the number doesn't give them any market respect whatsoever. In fact,

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Speaker 2: I think it's gone a little far here. I would

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Speaker 2: need minus one ten on drawn no Bett for Chelsea

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Speaker 2: to play it. We're not even close to that. We're

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Speaker 2: sitting like minus one forty one forty five or out

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Speaker 2: there with them as a pretty solid road favorite. So

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Speaker 2: while I said last week that I think that the

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Speaker 2: market was a little bit too low on Chelsea and

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Speaker 2: a little too high on Milan, it seems they have

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Speaker 2: just here and I hate that we do this six,

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Speaker 2: you know, six days later. It's kind of stupid. But

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Speaker 2: I do think Chelsea is more likely than not to

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Speaker 2: win this, but not at the price that I have

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Speaker 2: to pay. So I'm going to be staying away here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, last you mentioned that these since these are the

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Speaker 3: reverse fixtures last season, teams who won the first fixture

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Speaker 3: and won the x G battle in those fixtures the

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Speaker 3: following way they went nine to one and three. The

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Speaker 3: only loss was Salzburg loss to Wolfsburg. So I know

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Speaker 3: it's only one of your sample size. You can go

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Speaker 3: back and look if you want to to see how

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Speaker 3: team's performed over the long run. But yeah, again six

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Speaker 3: days is a little difficult to to once again prepare,

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Speaker 3: make you know, wholesale changes and try and to essentially

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Speaker 3: reverse eight A three nothing defeats.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, for me, I'm with you. I need Chelsea

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Speaker 1: at a better numbered.

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Speaker 3: Actually, play might have been projected at plus one sixty four,

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Speaker 3: So I too have to pass because Milan is still

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Speaker 3: without Mike Manyon, Salamachers, Care, Florenzi, They're all still out.

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Speaker 3: They like I said, to get Hernandez back. They'll help

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Speaker 3: them on left side. But Reyes James did a great

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Speaker 3: job of shutting down Leyos.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, it's a pass for me.

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Speaker 3: Let's move on to the other match in Group E,

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Speaker 3: Dinamo Zagreb hosting Salsburg. Dinamo Zagreb is plus one eighty

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Speaker 3: Salsburg sitting at plus one fifty five with a draw

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Speaker 3: at plus two to thirty. Salzburg won this match one

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Speaker 3: nothing on a penalty, fairly dominated the match on XG.

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Speaker 3: What I think is important about this match is Salsburg

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Speaker 3: is sitting atop the group, but if they win this match,

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Speaker 3: they can essentially if in a worst case scenario set up,

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Speaker 3: a winner goes through match against Milan on the final day,

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Speaker 3: So I mean I was taking a look at what

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Speaker 3: Salisburg was to advance and only plus one fifty.

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Speaker 1: That's way too short.

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Speaker 3: I'm not going to play that because they you know,

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Speaker 3: in the worst case scenario, they're not going to be

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Speaker 3: plus one fifty against Milan on the final day in Italy.

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Speaker 1: So for me, I am going to pass for this one.

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Speaker 3: If we can get Salsburg maybe at a better number,

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Speaker 3: I might be tempted to play them.

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Speaker 1: What do you have in Zagreb Salzburg.

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Speaker 2: I think it was interesting that from a you know,

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Speaker 2: expected threat point of view that Dino a Zagreb actually

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Speaker 2: hung with Salsburg in that match. And you know, the

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Speaker 2: penalty of course inflates the expected goals indicators. But if

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Speaker 2: you look at kind of the rolling chart of that

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Speaker 2: map and how it played out for the majority of

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Speaker 2: the first half, Salsburg were not able to do anything.

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Speaker 2: They created two big chances, one of which was the penalty,

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Speaker 2: one of which came just before the penalty.

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Speaker 1: It was not the goal.

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Speaker 2: I think Salsburg are a better side, but I was

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Speaker 2: looking for a potentially good Zagreb spot here, but it

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Speaker 2: doesn't look like we're going to get it. I also

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Speaker 2: thought it was very interesting if you look at Zagreb's

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Speaker 2: record home versus away that there's been a huge difference.

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Speaker 2: And of course it's a very difficult place to play.

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Speaker 2: If you've never looked up the videos on YouTube of

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Speaker 2: how insane the fans get there, it's one of the

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Speaker 2: most hostile environments in all of Europe. To go on

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Speaker 2: the road to Salzburg is the youngest team in the competition,

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Speaker 2: you do worry a little bit about, you know, how

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Speaker 2: they're able to handle that, and I think that's going

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Speaker 2: to be a very interesting challenge, especially in the first

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Speaker 2: half if you wanted to look for like a Zagreb

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Speaker 2: first half money line. I do think Salisbury's clearly the

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Speaker 2: better team when you look at their underline numbers and

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Speaker 2: their power ratings. But overall here nothing that I was

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Speaker 2: able to come and land on. I thought that we'd

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Speaker 2: get a better Zagreb number at home but after the loss,

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Speaker 2: but we did not.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to Group A. This is

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Speaker 1: a fun one.

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Speaker 3: Celtic hosting RB Leipzig on Tuesday at three pm Eastern

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Speaker 3: Celtic is plus two twenty RB liip six sitting at

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Speaker 3: plus one ten and the draw sitting at plus two

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Speaker 3: eighty RB. Leipzig won this match three to one.

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Speaker 1: But I ridiculous, you know, it was ridiculous.

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Speaker 3: You know, final XG is not really gonna give it justice.

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Speaker 3: I know where I'm going in this one. But Anthony Froggy, first,

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Speaker 3: let you give your thoughts from that stupid match.

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Speaker 2: Are you really going to bet Celtic again?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: You know, of course against Real Madrid, I felt like

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Speaker 2: we were probably wrong side there. I think you had

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Speaker 2: them against minutes Yeah, pretty good. And that's really the

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Speaker 2: thing here, right, And what we've seen now in two

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Speaker 2: separate matches against superior talented teams is that Celtic can

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Speaker 2: play with them for an hour, but as the game

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Speaker 2: becomes more stretched and more open, they have gotten absolutely

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Speaker 2: destroyed and transitioned. And that's not to say that they

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Speaker 2: also didn't find success themselves. There were periods against Leipzig

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Speaker 2: of significant sustained pressure where they looked like the better team.

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Speaker 2: But again the second goal. There were two varred off

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Speaker 2: goals for very close calls in that game, like Leipzig. Yes,

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Speaker 2: the go ahead goal was because Joe Hart just passed

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Speaker 2: the ball right to a Leipzig player was incredibly stupid

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Speaker 2: and one of many goalie errors that has gone against

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Speaker 2: me in the last two weeks, just throwing the ball

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Speaker 2: to the other team. But we also shouldn't ignore just

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Speaker 2: how open Celtic were at the back, and I think

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Speaker 2: that's a major problem against this Leipzig team because Cuckoo

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Speaker 2: had a ton of space, so the bosch Li was

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Speaker 2: able to get in. Werner played one pass that almost

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Speaker 2: sent in Kunku in like it was just missed it,

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Speaker 2: and I was on the edge of my seat thinking

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Speaker 2: this is going to be a goal. I think I

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Speaker 2: would only look towards the Celtic attack here more so

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Speaker 2: as opposed to the defense, because I think they have

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Speaker 2: had major defensive flaws exposed by these transition elitetacking attacking teams.

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Speaker 2: So I know the minute I stopped atting Celtic is

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Speaker 2: when they'll finally get a result in this group, like

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Speaker 2: a positive result relative to the market. But you look back,

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Speaker 2: they conceded a good number of big chances in that

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Speaker 2: match and it was twenty deep completions for Leipsig to

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Speaker 2: just twelve two point one one Xtgar. But like I said,

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Speaker 2: there was two the one was clearly offside and he

202
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Speaker 2: probably only scored because he was off But the second

203
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Speaker 2: one was one of those classic like the guy in

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Speaker 2: the off side position is blocking the goalie chances and

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Speaker 2: you know that doesn't really it's more the defense getting

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Speaker 2: bailed out. So I'm going to be standing away here

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Speaker 2: as well. Another pass for me for now. But I

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Speaker 2: don't hit a look on like a Celtic team total

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Speaker 2: because as I do think they can score with Leipzig.

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Speaker 2: We saw Leipzig's defense get opened up a bit at

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Speaker 2: the weekend on Minds. They have had major struggles away

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Speaker 2: from home. You cannot talk about that. I mean they

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Speaker 2: got pasted at Frankfurt, you got pasted at god Bach,

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Speaker 2: conceded early against Minds and could have conceded again late.

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Speaker 2: So the Leipsick's had problems on their travels. But I

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Speaker 2: don't trust this Celtic defense and transition.

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Speaker 1: They look so bad.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean there's definitely concerns here with Celtic defensively.

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Speaker 3: But for me, I mean this is purely a numbers play.

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Speaker 3: I mean I have Celtic projected as a slight favorite.

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Speaker 3: I'm looking at five thirty eight. They only have Leipzig

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Speaker 3: at forty one percent Celtic. There's a couple of positives.

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Speaker 3: You know, obviously the two vard Off goals and the

224
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Speaker 3: defensive transition problems are concerned, but they did force nine

225
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Speaker 3: high turnovers. They were able to counter pretty well. The

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Speaker 3: goal they set up was a beautiful counter attack right

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Speaker 3: out of the half. You know, up until again, like

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Speaker 3: you said, up until about the sixtieth minute, like the

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Speaker 3: rolling at chi ch chart they were winning the match

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Speaker 3: on x GIP and then the dumb goalkeeping mistake by

231
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Speaker 3: Joe Hart, and then Celtic basically didn't attempt to shop

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Speaker 3: for the rest of the game, which was kind of concerning.

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Speaker 1: But Celtic did have sixteen passes.

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Speaker 3: Into the penalty area against Leipstick only we're able to

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Speaker 3: create one point to expect goals off at that is

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Speaker 3: kind of concerning. But this is an all in spot

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Speaker 3: for Celtics, Like this is it. They have to win

238
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Speaker 3: this match to have any chance of going through RBI.

239
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Speaker 3: Leipzig is on a backup goalkeeper Glashy towards acl on

240
00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,200
Speaker 3: that match. They're still without Limer, they're still without Almo,

241
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Speaker 3: So I think this is a good spot here for Celtic.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's it's it's now or never with these

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Speaker 3: Scottish teams, So this is.

244
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Speaker 1: Probably my last.

245
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Speaker 2: Team.

246
00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:38,040
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, so I'm taking Celtic plus half a goal

247
00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:39,760
Speaker 3: at minus one thirty five. I tried to look at

248
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Speaker 3: Celtic first half. Their jonal bet is.

249
00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:44,199
Speaker 1: Only even money. I can't play that. That's way too short.

250
00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,480
Speaker 1: So I'm I'm gonna take them for the full game.

251
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Speaker 3: I'm gonna hope that they can convert some of these

252
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Speaker 3: box entries, convert some of these counter attacks. And I mean,

253
00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:55,880
Speaker 3: Celtic Park is an amazing atmosphere, a very very you

254
00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:57,839
Speaker 3: mentioned Zagrea. I mean, Celtic is right up there with

255
00:11:57,920 --> 00:11:59,400
Speaker 3: one of the most difficult places to play in all

256
00:11:59,440 --> 00:11:59,800
Speaker 3: of Europe.

257
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Speaker 2: You A.

258
00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:02,400
Speaker 3: Madrid even said it after their match that the crowd

259
00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:04,800
Speaker 3: was just crazy. So I'm back on the Scottish team.

260
00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:06,600
Speaker 2: Maybe this is a better money line game than plus

261
00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:08,160
Speaker 2: a half, Like I could make the argument for that,

262
00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:10,360
Speaker 2: you know, because the variance are this right, Like if

263
00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:12,040
Speaker 2: it's tied late, Celtic.

264
00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:13,319
Speaker 1: Kind of have to win, Like, yeah, there's.

265
00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:16,000
Speaker 2: Scary for me because Lips they could just come down

266
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Speaker 2: and win it. Whereas if Celtic is up late, you know,

267
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Speaker 2: you kind of like their chances if they're just you know,

268
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Speaker 2: defending for their lives with that crowd behind them. So yeah,

269
00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:28,400
Speaker 2: I could be chalked into maybe like a money line shop,

270
00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:30,880
Speaker 2: but I definitely don't want the plus a half minus

271
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Speaker 2: one thirty five. I'm laying a lot of juice on

272
00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,959
Speaker 2: a team I don't trust defensively against a matchup that

273
00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:37,160
Speaker 2: has not looked good for them.

274
00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:40,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'm gonna lay the juice just because

275
00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:42,640
Speaker 3: I maybe I trust Joehart a little more than you.

276
00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:45,040
Speaker 1: Maybe I'm just a little more keen to him. But anyway,

277
00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:46,760
Speaker 1: let's move on. In Group E.

278
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Speaker 3: For the sixth time in the last three years, Shocktar

279
00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:56,839
Speaker 3: versus Real Madrid. Shocktar is plus seven hundred Real Madrid

280
00:12:56,920 --> 00:13:00,480
Speaker 3: minus two seventy five the draw sitting at us for

281
00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:04,520
Speaker 3: twenty five Shaktar got or lost to one.

282
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Speaker 1: To Real Madrid. In the last league.

283
00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:10,120
Speaker 3: Real Madrid created three point six expected goals. The Shock

284
00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:14,760
Speaker 3: Tar team continues to show that they are really just

285
00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:17,680
Speaker 3: They've lost a ton of guys and they're just really

286
00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,760
Speaker 3: not what they were. I'm passing on this one. I

287
00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:23,400
Speaker 3: know you snaked your way out of a couple of

288
00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:27,000
Speaker 3: Shock Tar bets in the last round of matches. But yeah,

289
00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:30,680
Speaker 3: that's I mean, I'm not laying anything with Real Madrid

290
00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:32,400
Speaker 3: right now, especially on the road.

291
00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:34,719
Speaker 1: So do you have anything for Shaktar Real Madrid for

292
00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:35,360
Speaker 1: the sixth time?

293
00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:38,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, the sixth and hopefully final time for a little while.

294
00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:40,560
Speaker 2: We need to switch up these matchups and stocked drawing

295
00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:43,040
Speaker 2: these two teams in the same group. But yes, if

296
00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:45,760
Speaker 2: you remember last week's pod, I said that I had

297
00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:47,679
Speaker 2: no interest in the current number I'm playing Shaktar and

298
00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:50,000
Speaker 2: I didn't want to buy high on them. Then the

299
00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:53,640
Speaker 2: market moved pretty heavily toward Real. It was two and

300
00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:56,600
Speaker 2: a quarter, and I was like, I got up by

301
00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:59,439
Speaker 2: the under and the Shaktar bet here like Real' is

302
00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:03,480
Speaker 2: just inflated. It's not a great situational spot, and I

303
00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:05,920
Speaker 2: got lucky, and that doesn't happen all the time. But

304
00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:08,319
Speaker 2: let's be honest. Look, and this is kind of a

305
00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:12,360
Speaker 2: little more larger point about how these rolling XG things

306
00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:14,640
Speaker 2: work and how we talk about teams regressing and whatnot.

307
00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:18,160
Speaker 2: Like Real Madrid has due for so much finishing regression

308
00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:20,120
Speaker 2: that they're going to have games like this and you're

309
00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:22,960
Speaker 2: you kind of have to bake that into how you

310
00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:25,440
Speaker 2: project out these teams. Real Madrid is not going to

311
00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:29,520
Speaker 2: overrun their actually every single game. And you have to

312
00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:33,120
Speaker 2: also think about the fact that Shaktar put an impressive

313
00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:35,360
Speaker 2: effort in defensively, they blocked a lot of shots. Yes,

314
00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:37,640
Speaker 2: there were a bunch of chances, but a lot of

315
00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:39,960
Speaker 2: them were blocked and there were a lot of bodies

316
00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,720
Speaker 2: behind the ball almost all times. I was actually amazed

317
00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:46,120
Speaker 2: with Shaktar's willingness to play out from the back like

318
00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,400
Speaker 2: they were trying to concede it. Sometimes it felt like

319
00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:51,480
Speaker 2: because they were insistent on not going long, they were

320
00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:54,840
Speaker 2: insistent on playing out and not and you know, inviting

321
00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:56,600
Speaker 2: pressure and then trying to get in behind. And it

322
00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:58,360
Speaker 2: did work. I mean, they scored a goal because they

323
00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:00,960
Speaker 2: played out from the back, invited pressure, got past the

324
00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,160
Speaker 2: first line, played one ball in goal.

325
00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:03,840
Speaker 3: Right.

326
00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:07,360
Speaker 2: But it's a dangerous game to play. And this this

327
00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:11,120
Speaker 2: is a bad situational spot for Real Madrid again, because yes,

328
00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:15,520
Speaker 2: they'll probably win this comfortably, but they have Olclassico this weekend.

329
00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:18,520
Speaker 2: Here's the thing, the number, you know, and I think

330
00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:19,920
Speaker 2: a lot of people will see We'll look at this

331
00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:21,880
Speaker 2: and they'll see, Okay, three and a half was the

332
00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,480
Speaker 2: total for the first game at Real Madrid. Now it's

333
00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:26,800
Speaker 2: in a neutral site and I just watched eight hundred

334
00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:29,320
Speaker 2: expected goals go up on the board for Real Madrid,

335
00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:31,480
Speaker 2: and I get a better number on the over, I'm

336
00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:34,000
Speaker 2: just gonna bet the over. I don't like that at all,

337
00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:36,640
Speaker 2: and I and I would very heavily caution against that

338
00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:40,440
Speaker 2: they could do it again, but uh yeah, I'm gonna

339
00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:42,200
Speaker 2: pass on this one. I'm gonna take my money from

340
00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:44,200
Speaker 2: last week on jack tar and under, and I'm gonna

341
00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,400
Speaker 2: walk away from the table as as a head. And

342
00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,800
Speaker 2: I'm now one and two on my Real Madrid well

343
00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,280
Speaker 2: two and two technically my Real Madrid phades this year.

344
00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:55,320
Speaker 2: I'm keeping a running count for those who say I

345
00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:56,080
Speaker 2: faded them every week.

346
00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:59,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I should have mentioned off the top that Real

347
00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:03,400
Speaker 3: Madrid and Shaktar over the years Real Madrid expected goals

348
00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:05,520
Speaker 3: has been ten point five to five point two in

349
00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:07,440
Speaker 3: the other five meetings, so Real Madrid has basically just

350
00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:10,520
Speaker 3: beaten them by a full expected goal per meeting. And

351
00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:12,360
Speaker 3: I also should have mentioned off the top group f

352
00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:14,880
Speaker 3: Real Madrid is sitting at the top with nine points,

353
00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:18,040
Speaker 3: Shaktar is in second with four points Leipzig and third

354
00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:22,720
Speaker 3: with three points in Celtic with one point. So it's

355
00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:24,680
Speaker 3: a pretty interesting group of who's actually get advanced in

356
00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:28,680
Speaker 3: that second spot. Let's move on to Group H, which

357
00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:33,240
Speaker 3: sets up like this. PSG sits at the top with

358
00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:36,920
Speaker 3: seven points, Benefica tied with them on points, second place,

359
00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:41,240
Speaker 3: Juventus in third with just three points, and Macabi Haifa

360
00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:45,400
Speaker 3: in dead last with zero points. Let's first start with

361
00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:51,640
Speaker 3: PSG versus Benefica. I came away with that match very

362
00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:55,000
Speaker 3: very happy, not just because I won my bet, but

363
00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:58,840
Speaker 3: it really confirmed to me that this PSG team is

364
00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,960
Speaker 3: still this old PSG team that we saw in the

365
00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:05,760
Speaker 3: Champions League last year. The market is indicating that they

366
00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:09,320
Speaker 3: are essentially one of the better teams in this entire competition,

367
00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,399
Speaker 3: which I think not to be true. Benefica was the

368
00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:14,440
Speaker 3: better team at home, like they won the expected goals.

369
00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:18,040
Speaker 3: That all, they held PSG to just point nine XG

370
00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:20,760
Speaker 3: on fifteen shots, twenty eight touches in the penalty area

371
00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:23,960
Speaker 3: and twenty box entries. That is incredibly impressive to do

372
00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:26,720
Speaker 3: against the best front three in the world. PSG was

373
00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,880
Speaker 3: able to get into Benefica's box, but they just got nothing.

374
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:33,240
Speaker 3: Equality and PSG's first three matches. I said this in

375
00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:36,159
Speaker 3: the last podcast, but the best front three in the

376
00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:41,680
Speaker 3: world has only created four point one expected goals against Juventus, Maccabi,

377
00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:45,400
Speaker 3: Haifa and Benefica, and their expected threat was one point

378
00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:48,320
Speaker 3: one against Juventus, one point three against Haifa and one

379
00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:52,520
Speaker 3: point seven against Benefica. That is not elite attacking numbers.

380
00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:55,399
Speaker 3: And might I remind you that Benefica. I understand they

381
00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 3: give up two goals to Rio ad this weekend, but

382
00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:59,080
Speaker 3: that was off only off half an expected goal.

383
00:17:59,160 --> 00:17:59,960
Speaker 1: So now we're only.

384
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:04,280
Speaker 3: Three expected goals allowed through nine matches and they've held

385
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:06,520
Speaker 3: their first three opponents in the Champions League under one

386
00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:09,800
Speaker 3: expected goal. Benefica in that match created three big scoring chances.

387
00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:13,119
Speaker 3: Dona Rouma constantly just bailed PSG out. He had a

388
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:16,399
Speaker 3: post shot XG of two point one. PSG was planning

389
00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,520
Speaker 3: on resting a lot of guys this week. In against Reims,

390
00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:20,960
Speaker 3: Sergio Ramas got a red card, they had to bring

391
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:25,720
Speaker 3: on neymar Fatina and Hakemi in the second half and

392
00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:28,160
Speaker 3: they ended up drawing and actually losing the expected goals battle.

393
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:32,640
Speaker 3: PSG's probably maybe gonna be without Lionel Messi for this match.

394
00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:34,840
Speaker 3: He was subbed off against Benefica, didn't play over the week,

395
00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:37,159
Speaker 3: anains against Rems. Not sure if he's gonna play or not.

396
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:39,960
Speaker 3: They're also going to be without new Amendes Kim Bembe,

397
00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:43,119
Speaker 3: Brenezo Sanchez, so if Messi's out, it's likely gonna be.

398
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:46,560
Speaker 1: Hugo, Ikatke, Pablo Serabia.

399
00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:48,919
Speaker 3: I'm not sure, but the downgrade from Messi to one

400
00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:52,240
Speaker 3: of those two guys is pretty massive. So I can't

401
00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,840
Speaker 3: believe PSG is this big of a favorite at home

402
00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:57,879
Speaker 3: against how basically how good this Benefica team has been.

403
00:18:57,920 --> 00:18:59,240
Speaker 1: So I'm taking Benefica plus.

404
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:00,960
Speaker 3: One and a half on the road. I think this

405
00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:03,240
Speaker 3: number is a little crazy. I only have PSG projected

406
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:06,080
Speaker 3: as a small favorite. What are you feeling for Benefica PSG?

407
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, we had good reads on this one last week.

408
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:10,960
Speaker 2: I've seen nothing that changes my opinion on what happened

409
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:12,840
Speaker 2: last week. My best bet last week on the pod

410
00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:15,639
Speaker 2: was under three point twenty five. These two teams played

411
00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:20,440
Speaker 2: a game six days ago and there was one point

412
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:24,120
Speaker 2: eight expected goals created off of about two point six

413
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:27,040
Speaker 2: expected threat. PSG had a lot of the ball, They

414
00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,200
Speaker 2: dominated the possession, they couldn't really create much the first half.

415
00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:31,440
Speaker 2: It was really a tale of two halves.

416
00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 1: Right.

417
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:34,159
Speaker 2: The first half, Benfica was playing the better football. They

418
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 2: were passing through PSG. I think a better team might

419
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 2: have taken advantage of PSG's weaknesses. I think that's a

420
00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,440
Speaker 2: really interesting thing going forward to look at. There were

421
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:46,800
Speaker 2: some flaws that I saw, but Benfica's not a great

422
00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:51,960
Speaker 2: attacking side at all. And now the second half at home,

423
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:55,840
Speaker 2: they were very capable and very comfortable sitting deep, letting

424
00:19:55,920 --> 00:20:00,040
Speaker 2: PSG have the ball, not conceding many big chances and

425
00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:02,480
Speaker 2: the result was a pretty fair one one draw in

426
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 2: the end. Now, what changed from six days ago to now?

427
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:07,159
Speaker 3: For me?

428
00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,440
Speaker 2: Nothing, I thought ben THINKA represented themselves well defensively. I

429
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:12,680
Speaker 2: think they'll do that again even in Paris. I'll take

430
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,040
Speaker 2: on to three point twenty five, same number, same price,

431
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:16,560
Speaker 2: same bet. Let's do it again.

432
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:18,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. I just don't. I don't.

433
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,359
Speaker 3: It's the problem with these matches, just being six days out,

434
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,119
Speaker 3: you have you always have to ask, all right, what

435
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 3: has changed?

436
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 1: Oh? Not really much?

437
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:27,159
Speaker 3: And for a lot most of these matches, some of

438
00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:29,720
Speaker 3: them have changed a little bit. But again, yeah, not

439
00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:32,119
Speaker 3: much has changed. So let's move on to Group G

440
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,399
Speaker 3: which sets up like this, Manchester City sitting at the

441
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 3: top with nine points, Doorman and second with six points

442
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:40,920
Speaker 3: to be in third with one point, and Copenhagen in

443
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:46,040
Speaker 3: fourth with one point. Let's start off with Copenhagen versus

444
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 3: Manchester City. Manchester City is a minus one thousand favorite

445
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 3: on the road, Copenhagen sitting at twenty two to one

446
00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 3: on the money line, with the draw sitting at plus

447
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 3: nine hundred. We're gonna kind of disagree on this match.

448
00:20:59,040 --> 00:20:59,720
Speaker 1: I'll let you go.

449
00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 3: First because I actually think City might put up another

450
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 3: route again.

451
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,400
Speaker 2: I mean they might like a three nail route would

452
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:09,920
Speaker 2: cash both of our bets, right, that's true. You're on

453
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 2: City minus two and a half. I'm on the under

454
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:14,919
Speaker 2: three and a half. This is a super duper sleepy

455
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:19,400
Speaker 2: spot for man City. They have overperformed considerably their expected

456
00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:22,000
Speaker 2: goals four numbers for the season, and I know Earling

457
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,400
Speaker 2: Holland is the man and I know that the sustained

458
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:28,440
Speaker 2: pressure is likely to continue. But this total is inflated

459
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:33,639
Speaker 2: on the road at Copenhagen, and they have Liverpool this weekend,

460
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 2: so there is no incentive for them to run up

461
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 2: the score. They have already won this group. Essentially, with

462
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 2: a win, they will win all but win the group

463
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 2: depending on how Dortmund and Sevilla play out their match.

464
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 2: If if you know, Dortmund wins, they've secured advancement already,

465
00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:53,880
Speaker 2: and if Dortmund ties, they would need some weird thing

466
00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 2: to occur in the final two matches for them to

467
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:57,879
Speaker 2: not win this group. So there is no incentive for

468
00:21:57,920 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 2: Holland to be playing big minutes. I think he may

469
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 2: play sixty minutes and come off. I think that makes

470
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 2: a huge difference for this total. City has no reason

471
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 2: to run it up. Copenhagen should give a good defensive

472
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 2: effort at home. I think all of this points to

473
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 2: the under in a sleepy city spot. Please pray for me,

474
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 2: Absolutely a sleepy spot.

475
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 3: I totally agree with you that one of the biggest

476
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:18,439
Speaker 3: look at heead spots on the board in the Champions

477
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 3: League this weekend. But Pep Guardiol is a psychopath and

478
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 3: he never consistently has rarely benched a ton of guys

479
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:27,880
Speaker 3: in these type of look ahead spots in the Champions League.

480
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:29,879
Speaker 3: They were in a similar spot last year when they

481
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,159
Speaker 3: had just blown out Club Bruges. They had a Manchester

482
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 3: derby on the weekend. They had no incentive to actually

483
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 3: play a lot of their guys. They rested de Bruynna

484
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 3: and the rest of Reuben Diz and that was it.

485
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,439
Speaker 3: And then they went on and they just absolutely pasted Bruges.

486
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:46,440
Speaker 3: For one, I think Pep is actually gonna think, you

487
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,639
Speaker 3: know what, we actually need to win this match so

488
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:50,679
Speaker 3: that we can seal things up. When we played Dortmund

489
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:56,640
Speaker 3: in Germany, I mean City absolutely destroyed Copenhagen. They took

490
00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 3: thirty shots, they had thirty nine bockses, fifty nine touches

491
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,679
Speaker 3: in the penalty area, ended up creating four point one

492
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 3: expected goals, and they only allowed Copenhagen to just take

493
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,920
Speaker 3: two shots and thirty five touches in their final third.

494
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 1: Also, I found this kind of funny.

495
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:15,400
Speaker 3: Copenhagen sacked their manager on September twentieth after a poort run,

496
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 3: and in the Danish Super League they're still trying to

497
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 3: kind of find themselves. They haven't put together really that

498
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 3: great of results, like they just drew with nordhold Land

499
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 3: over the weekend. So I very rarely do this, but

500
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 3: I'm taking City minus two and a half at even money.

501
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 3: I actually do project a little bit of value on it,

502
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:39,119
Speaker 3: just because I think this Copenhagen team is quite bad.

503
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 3: They were very, very poor against Dortmund. They were obviously

504
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 3: they got paceed by City, and you know they coming

505
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 3: into the Champions League they only had you know, plus

506
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 3: a half expected goal differential dating back to the start

507
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:56,639
Speaker 3: of last season, Like this team really isn't that talented,

508
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 3: Really isn't that good. They also, you know, their captains injured,

509
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 3: that one of their rest offenders is injured. So it's

510
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,439
Speaker 3: it's a tough spot here for Copenhagen, and I think

511
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 3: they you know, they're basically going to be battling with

512
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 3: Seville for that final third spot to get into Europa League.

513
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna take City minus two and a half

514
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:13,439
Speaker 3: at plus one hundred. Let's hope for a City three

515
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 3: nothing win, all right.

516
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, but at the other doom this right, yeah, like

517
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:18,439
Speaker 2: if they give away a penalty or two. But if

518
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 2: City does keep a clean sheet, I have a hard

519
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 2: time seeing City creating enough to get to four. Now,

520
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 2: they could finish enough to get to four, but in

521
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 2: terms of actually created I would be very surprised if

522
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 2: we got over three and a half.

523
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 1: Year.

524
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,120
Speaker 2: So I'm going to take the under hold my nose,

525
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 2: bank on some city attacking regression, and bank on pep

526
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 2: Yah giving Holland a break in the last thirty minutes

527
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 2: when he already has two and they're up to now

528
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:40,679
Speaker 2: in the sixtieth minute, and.

529
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 3: So talk about it, and we'll talk about it on

530
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 3: the weekend podcast. But I'm getting close to having to

531
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 3: be the guy that says, hey, Holland can't keep.

532
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 1: Up this scoring rate forever. But we'll get to that later.

533
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,399
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the other match in Group H.

534
00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 3: It is Dortmunt hosting Severe Dormant is minus one eighty eight,

535
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 3: Sabbia sitting at plus five hundred with the draw at

536
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 3: plus three point thirty.

537
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 1: Dortmund won this match four to one.

538
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,679
Speaker 3: Uh pretty much dominated Sevilla, who had who sacked their

539
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:16,640
Speaker 3: manager after the match. Sevia did get a draw match

540
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:20,679
Speaker 3: really it was before the match, but technically the announcement

541
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 3: came after the match. Low Petage might be on his

542
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:26,119
Speaker 3: way to Wolves. Sam Pauli comes over from Marseille. They

543
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,640
Speaker 3: get a one to one draw with at athletic built

544
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 3: Boot on the weekend lose on XG. They seem to

545
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 3: still have the same defensive problems here. Numbers just a

546
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 3: little too high for me. On Dortmann who are just

547
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:40,880
Speaker 3: you know, they're in a run of playing extremely high

548
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 3: stakes matches. You know, they had the match obviously against

549
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,680
Speaker 3: Sevilla two weeks ago, they had to play Manchester City,

550
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 3: then they had to play Bayern Munich on the weekend,

551
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 3: got a late goal to draw to two. Yeah, I

552
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 3: only have Dortmuann projected at minus one twenty nine. You know,

553
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 3: if you want to get a little crazy, you might

554
00:25:57,680 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 3: want to play you know, you can play Dortmund minus

555
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 3: one and a half off chase a big price here.

556
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 3: Other than that, I'm staying way, do you have anything

557
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 3: for Dortmund Sevilla?

558
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 2: You know, this is one of those kind of games

559
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:09,960
Speaker 2: where you know, we talk about what do you take

560
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 2: away from the first game that you can apply to

561
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 2: the second game. This is one where I think the

562
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 2: market overreacted.

563
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 1: I agree.

564
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 2: I have been a severe fader for a while. We

565
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 2: all have on this podcast.

566
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 3: Uh.

567
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 2: They had a pretty decent showing at home against bill

568
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 2: Bao on Saturday. It was not as near it was

569
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 2: probably their best performance of the season given the opponent

570
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:34,880
Speaker 2: in the situation. The performance against Dortmund last week wasn't

571
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:36,919
Speaker 2: as bad as the underlying numbers. They created over one

572
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:38,879
Speaker 2: and a half expected goals, just didn't finish any and

573
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 2: then Dortmann finished all of their chances. But that game

574
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 2: was relatively even, so I am tempted to take the

575
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 2: goal here, very tempted, but I think I'm going to

576
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 2: end up passing. Dot made an interesting decision to not

577
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 2: start Anthony Madest in the match against Byron on Saturday,

578
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 2: which there was only two shots taken in the first

579
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 2: half their first forty minutes. Rather, there was a few

580
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 2: in the last five minutes and a half, but the

581
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 2: first forty minutes there were two shots attempted until Gretzka

582
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 2: hit that goal in the thirty ninth. I think it

583
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:18,920
Speaker 2: was so this defense did a remarkably impressive job, and

584
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 2: that was at home, where they have been excellent defensively

585
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,879
Speaker 2: this season. I do wonder if Sevia will struggle to score.

586
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 2: It's very hard to just send crosses in forever against

587
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:30,719
Speaker 2: Nicholas Sula and Nico Schlaterbeck. I don't know if they

588
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 2: will if it will change, but they've been built so

589
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 2: heavily around crossing that I think it's going to be

590
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 2: difficult for Sevia to create chances here on the road.

591
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 2: So I'm so close on Sylvia plus one as a

592
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 2: good bye low new manager coming in eventually caretaker. For now,

593
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 2: the Patagi's gone Dortman inflated off of an overrated performance,

594
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 2: big let down after they just got an incredible draw

595
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 2: at home of Buyern. They haven't gotten a result against

596
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:57,920
Speaker 2: Byron a long time, so it's been a couple of years.

597
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 2: So I'm very close on Seville. But again another past.

598
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 2: This car's about to get ugly for me because you

599
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 2: know I've taken I'm betting against City PSG and whatnot,

600
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 2: but I am keeping the bet on Zavia off of

601
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 2: it for now.

602
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, hoots about to get ugly.

603
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 3: Art that wraps up Tuesday's matches. Before we head to Wednesday,

604
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:21,119
Speaker 3: Let's stop and remind our listeners that Wonder Goal is

605
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 3: presented by Bet three sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand.

606
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,240
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607
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,879
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608
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,680
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609
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 3: You may want to use that one dollar bet on

610
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 3: this game. We'll start off in Group C, which sets

611
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 3: up like this. Bayern Munich is at the top of

612
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 3: the table, sitting with nine points, enter and second with

613
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 3: six coming off that win against Barcelona. Barcelona is sitting

614
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 3: in third and potentially looking at another trip to the

615
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 3: Europa League, and Victoria Pleasant has been outscored twelve to

616
00:28:56,080 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 3: one and has zero points. Let's start off with Barca

617
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 3: versus Inter Milan. In won that match won nothing kind

618
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 3: of a it was. It was an interesting match. There

619
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 3: wasn't a whole lot of action like x she was

620
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 3: very very low. There was some There was a very

621
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 3: critical bar decision that went against Barcelona. I thought Inter

622
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 3: really bounced back from a really bad run of form

623
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 3: to get a good result there. But I'll let you

624
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 3: start us off here in Barcelona.

625
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 1: Intern.

626
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 2: Look, you know you guys been into here last week.

627
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 2: I ended up passing and that was a mistake. But like,

628
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 2: what what changed in this matchup? Besides Barsa needing to win, right,

629
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 2: and Barsa wins this, they'll probably advance. If they don't

630
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 2: win this, they probably won't. So I get it, like

631
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 2: it's a must win situation, but the market is clearly inflated.

632
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 2: On what earth are they a full goal better than Inter?

633
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 2: Milan on a neutral they're not right, and so Milan

634
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 2: or Inter rather, I continue to be hesitant about them

635
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 2: in the long run this season. But after what you

636
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 2: saw in the last match where they basically held Barsa

637
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 2: without a shot for about thirty minutes of that match,

638
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 2: so between about forty and seventy there was no Barsa's

639
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 2: shot attempt, which was insane. The expected goals in that

640
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 2: match they defended extremely well. There's no reason that I

641
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 2: think they couldn't repeat that defensive performance on the road

642
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 2: needing only a draw. I also think this is a

643
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 2: decent underspot, but ultimately this market is inflated on Barsa

644
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 2: off of a performance that does not deserve them to

645
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 2: be inflated. And you can't even say it's a look

646
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 2: ahead because it's so important for the club. But there

647
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 2: is real Madrid waiting on Saturday. I don't consider that

648
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 2: in this situation because again, like I said, like they

649
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 2: have to win this match, but they just haven't deserved that.

650
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 1: And have they been.

651
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 2: Unlucky at this point in the Champions League to have

652
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 2: lost both matches against Bayern and Enter? Absolutely, but Inter

653
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 2: still has good underlying metrics and good enough onnderlying metrics

654
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 2: and perhaps most importantly, started Onana instead of Hondanovich. I

655
00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 2: think there might be a transition happening there, And I

656
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 2: love in Thursday fent a lot more now with there

657
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 2: not a shot stopping versus the Hondanovich regression, which looked

658
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 2: like he was just kind of off of a cliff here.

659
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, like in your point, I mean, I.

660
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 3: Mean, I mean I should have mentioned up top Bars's

661
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 3: minus two to fifty, Inter plus six twenty five and

662
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 3: the draw sing of plus four hundred.

663
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 1: I agree with you.

664
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 3: So essentially Barcelona closed at what minus won thirty against

665
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 3: Inter in the first match. If you say that home

666
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 3: field advantage is worth fifty cents in the Champions League,

667
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 3: which is you know, kind of a steep assumption. Essentially,

668
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 3: what you're saying is, okay, if we could, if we

669
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 3: flip this, then Barcelona getting essentially one hundred points on

670
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 3: the money line, they should be minus two thirty. Well

671
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 3: they're sitting at minus two fifty. So essentially the market says, okay,

672
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 3: Barcelona should have won that match like they were way better,

673
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 3: which I really don't think the case. I think Entered

674
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 3: did a great job sitting back in their five three

675
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 3: to two. What was interesting what they did is essentially

676
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 3: they tried to play out of the back a lot

677
00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 3: like they Screener and Debry are very good ball controlling

678
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 3: center backs who can distribute the ball very well.

679
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 1: Barcelona tried to.

680
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 3: Press with their front three Boostquets came up and tried

681
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 3: to cover the central midfielder, but the Screener and Deveri

682
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 3: just basically we're able to consistently play passes through right

683
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 3: to the dropping strikers and get the ball out wide

684
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 3: and get it moving forward and really put a lot

685
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,479
Speaker 3: of pressure on Barcelona's back line. I mean, Barcelona did

686
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 3: hold seventy percent possession and we're still held to just

687
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 3: seven shots and point six XGT and most importantly, Lewandowski

688
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 3: only took one shot for the entire match, So I

689
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:31,760
Speaker 3: agree with you. I'm on Interier plus one and a

690
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 3: half as well. Barcelona, coming off a less than inspiring

691
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 3: performance against South of Ego on Sunday, allowed one point

692
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 3: five expected goals, so I am with you. This market

693
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 3: is way too inflated on Barcelona, so I'm taking into

694
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 3: plus one and a half as well. Let's go to

695
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 3: the other match in that group. Is it is Victoria

696
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 3: Pleasant hosting Bayern Munich. Byron Munich is minus eight hundred

697
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:57,719
Speaker 3: on the money line, Victoria Pleasant is eighteen to one,

698
00:32:57,760 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 3: with the draw sitting at eight to one.

699
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know.

700
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 2: Again, Yeah, I'm splitting up a little.

701
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 3: I'm still so mad that I took Barcelona to win

702
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 3: nail in the first match, and that's gonna be the

703
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 3: only match that Pleasant actually scores a goal.

704
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 1: But anyway, I'm passing.

705
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the under and both halves. I took

706
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 2: one and a half and three and a half. I'm

707
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 2: splitting a unit on that. Look. Byron didn't look good

708
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 2: at all against Dortmund this week. Byron is very flat

709
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:28,720
Speaker 2: situationally here. This is a weird road match for them.

710
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 2: They've already basically won the group. Like I said, they'll

711
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 2: catch the Inter. You know, they'll host Inter in the

712
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 2: last match. They just need to win this. The reality

713
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 2: of the first game was that Byron had some incredible finishes.

714
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 2: It wasn't that they were completely overwhelming. Of course, they

715
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 2: dominated the match, but if you look kind of at

716
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 2: the expected goals, I have a hard time getting this

717
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 2: one to four as well. I don't think Pilsen will

718
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:57,520
Speaker 2: score either. They have offered no attacking threat in the

719
00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 2: last two matches whatsoever. So I'm holding my nose here

720
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 2: on just what I think is an inflated total.

721
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 1: Yeah.

722
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 3: One thing I did find interesting was Byron is only

723
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 3: minus one ten to Wind nil, which I thought was

724
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 3: pretty cheap. And then I looked in you know, pleasant

725
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 3: you know, say what you will. They did create a

726
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 3: half and expected goal against Byron, and Byron does have

727
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 3: a you know, may not look that, uh, you know

728
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 3: as a huge match on you know, on the calendar,

729
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 3: but they are hosting Freiburg, who's ahead of them in

730
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 3: the table in the Bundesliga, so they have to take

731
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 3: that one very seriously.

732
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 1: But yeah, maybe take Byron to Wind nil.

733
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:37,239
Speaker 2: But then had its worst chance creation showing in the

734
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 2: Bundesliga in more than four years Saturday against Dortmann. They

735
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:44,840
Speaker 2: created about point five two point six x g depending

736
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:48,319
Speaker 2: on what model you look at. It was really bad. Yeah,

737
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 2: and this tax isn't right. I mean they're not. No,

738
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 2: they're not. There's no focal point and it's been weird

739
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 2: for them. Canai's not a natural striker Mani's kind of

740
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,880
Speaker 2: not a natural striker like muci Alas stepped up. Muller

741
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 2: is injured, so like there are question marks here with

742
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 2: this team buying as a general rule.

743
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, it'll be interesting.

744
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:08,439
Speaker 3: I don't know if we're gonna learn much from this match,

745
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 3: but yeah, the match against Freiburg this weekend is going

746
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 3: to be kind of interesting. Let's move on to Group A,

747
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 3: which sets up like this, Napoli sitting atop the group

748
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 3: with nine points, Liverpool and second with six points, i

749
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 3: AX and third with three points. Rangers zero points, zero goals,

750
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 3: nine goals against. So let's start off with that Rangers

751
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 3: versus Liverpool match. The steven Gerrard Darby. I am passing.

752
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 3: I'm done with Rangers. I'm not going to try and

753
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:39,719
Speaker 3: even play them. But you you're going to try to

754
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 3: buy Rangers against Liverpool?

755
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,280
Speaker 2: I am you know. I think Liverpool's a little inflated.

756
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 2: This is a brutal spot for Liverpool too, like they

757
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:49,960
Speaker 2: need to win. But again, like this defense is not

758
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 2: traveled whatsoever. They took Trent off today against Arsenal, they

759
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 2: had no options to pass the ball forward. They were

760
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 2: completely unable to get through Arsenal once they took their

761
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 2: passer off the field, Sala is, I mean, where's Mosala

762
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 2: right now? I mean his numbers have dropped off in

763
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 2: a big way, like there are I'm I'm more questioning

764
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:13,920
Speaker 2: if it's tactical or if he's aging. I think it's

765
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:16,240
Speaker 2: a little bit of both, because if you watch Liverpool,

766
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 2: he definitely is playing wider this year than he used to.

767
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 2: But he's also way down in XTG for ninety and like,

768
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 2: is it because he's aging. I don't know, because he

769
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 2: peaked at XG P ninety last season around point seven

770
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 2: to one. Domestically, he's down two point four to six

771
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 2: coming into today. That's the fb REF numbers. You can

772
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 2: even look in the Champions League he has not been

773
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:40,879
Speaker 2: particularly good either. You can go all competitions like, there

774
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 2: are legitimate regression indicators for mo thus far this season

775
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 2: he's at point six in the Champions League. He was

776
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:51,279
Speaker 2: zero point seventy five last year, so I think that

777
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 2: there's a legitimate regression there. You go back to this game.

778
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:56,800
Speaker 2: Rangers didn't create much, but they did create in a

779
00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:58,799
Speaker 2: big flurry at the end of the match that got

780
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 2: them to about a half of an expect goal. But

781
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:03,279
Speaker 2: Liverpool got a penalty and still only finished with two

782
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:05,799
Speaker 2: expected goals at home. So now I'm going to catch

783
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 2: a goal and a half at Rangers in what is

784
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 2: an all in spot. Like you mentioned, this is one

785
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 2: where I think I have an overvalued team who has

786
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 2: shown me more in this in the last two matches,

787
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 2: at least than Celtic has. So I'm going to take

788
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 2: one last shot on Rangers at plus one and a half.

789
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:26,919
Speaker 3: Let's move on to the other group A match, which

790
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:31,360
Speaker 3: is Napoli versus IX. Napoli is sitting at minus one

791
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 3: sixty seven, IAX at four to one, drawsing at plus

792
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:35,320
Speaker 3: three fifty.

793
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 1: Napoli routed IAX in this match it was six to one.

794
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:42,920
Speaker 3: Actually would say yeah, actually would suggest that maybe it

795
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 3: was a little closer. But it was an absolute route.

796
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:49,880
Speaker 3: I mean, i AX showed no sense of defending at all.

797
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,879
Speaker 3: Napoli was able to do whatever they want. Napoli ended

798
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 3: up taking what twenty six shots? They ended up just

799
00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 3: having over twenty box centuries. It was just an absolute throttling.

800
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 3: And I'll be honest with you, and I think you're

801
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:07,359
Speaker 3: gonna agree with me here. Napoli's inflated. I really think

802
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 3: they're They're inflated. On here, But I don't think I

803
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 3: can play i X plus one after what I just saw.

804
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:15,720
Speaker 3: Tatis got a red card, so he's not gonna be playing.

805
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 3: That obviously hurts i AX a little bits. Yeah, other

806
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:23,879
Speaker 3: than the Rangers match, i AX has just shown. They've

807
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:25,880
Speaker 3: basically shown them that they are who we thought they

808
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 3: were coming into this competition, and the fact that they

809
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 3: lost too many guys, they lost their manager, and to

810
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 3: recreate what they were last year, they're just not able

811
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 3: to do it.

812
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna pass. I really just want to, you.

813
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 3: Know, ignore my projections and just take Napoli minus one

814
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 3: and watch them win three nothing in Italy because they

815
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:43,280
Speaker 3: have looked.

816
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 1: Easy, Like, yeah, it's too easy, right, because it is. Yea,

817
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 1: looks too easy.

818
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:51,320
Speaker 2: It's like betting when we're big six teams in the

819
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 2: prem play. Just bet the over, you win every single time.

820
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 2: That's been the case for the last year and a half.

821
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, I agree everything you said. Napoli

822
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:00,839
Speaker 2: is the greatest team in the world. Nobody will ever

823
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 2: beat them ever again. Nobody will even get a point

824
00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:04,800
Speaker 2: off of them. You'll be lucky to hold them to

825
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:06,799
Speaker 2: two goals. You know, that's how good they are now

826
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:09,799
Speaker 2: and like I legitimately love Napole I mean, they took

827
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 2: advantage of some teams who needed to clear out some

828
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 2: dead wood. They got in Dumblele in zambo and Giza

829
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 2: is a great signing from Fulham a couple years ago.

830
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 2: Osa Men's taking the leap Keavar Scilia is really fun. Like,

831
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:23,839
Speaker 2: this team is awesome, They're so much fun to watch

832
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:27,359
Speaker 2: and why not bet on them? Lay the goal plus

833
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 2: two to ten last week at IX easy money. They

834
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 2: can see in the first minute add more live like

835
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:34,399
Speaker 2: you know. But no, like I love Napoli, the time

836
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 2: will come to fade them. This IX team. The body

837
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 2: language is off, the vibes are off. There's major doubting

838
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 2: of the current manager going on behind the scenes. The

839
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 2: players don't look like they like him. There's no buy

840
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 2: in whatsoever, and we've now seen it like, yeah, they

841
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:52,840
Speaker 2: whipped Rangers, but now that they've gotten embarrassed in consecutive matches,

842
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 2: no thanks, Yeah, I'm going to.

843
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:57,320
Speaker 3: End up passing on this one and just watch NAPOLEI

844
00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 3: went for nothing. All right, Let's move on two. Group D,

845
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 3: which sets up like this, Sporting Lisbon sitting atop the

846
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:08,760
Speaker 3: group with six points, your beloved Tottenham Hotspur in second

847
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:13,240
Speaker 3: with four points, Frankfurt sitting in third with four points,

848
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:17,399
Speaker 3: in Marseille and last place with three points. Let's start

849
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:22,319
Speaker 3: off with that Tottenham Frankfurt match, which was Oh boy,

850
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,759
Speaker 3: that was that was a tough one to swallow if

851
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 3: you had Tottenham, like we all did on this podcast.

852
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 3: Tottenham created two point two expected goals to point nine

853
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:34,320
Speaker 3: for Frankfurt. They had three big scoring chances inside the

854
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:37,319
Speaker 3: six yard box and just could not put the ball

855
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:38,879
Speaker 3: in the back of the net.

856
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:43,760
Speaker 2: Now, if you look soccer betting, right, and it's what happened,

857
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 2: you know with the two games, I bet on Spurs,

858
00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 2: but go ahead.

859
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna say, you look at the box score.

860
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 3: I mean tottam only had twenty three touches in the

861
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 3: penalty area, like, they didn't have like a high number

862
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:53,839
Speaker 3: of box entries.

863
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:55,640
Speaker 1: Like it wasn't like a oh my gosh.

864
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 3: Tottenham just dominated possession like they were just for you know,

865
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 3: flurry after flurry and frankfurtz box. No, they sat back

866
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 3: what they did and they counterattacked them very well and

867
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:06,719
Speaker 3: very effectively, and they got their chances and they just

868
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 3: couldn't put it away.

869
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 1: This Frankfurt team sucks. They are so bad.

870
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 3: They just lost over the weekend three nothing to Boacham,

871
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 3: who is the worst team in the Bundesliga. Over their

872
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 3: last six matches, they've only created over one expected goal

873
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 3: one time. I'm taking Tottenham minus one at minus one twenty.

874
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 3: I think that's a great price. I have them projected

875
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 3: over minus four hundred. This is a Frankfurt team that

876
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:29,759
Speaker 3: since started last season still has a negative expected goal

877
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 3: of the Frenchial. Like the teams like this shouldn't be

878
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 3: in the Champions but they wanted a magical Europa League

879
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 3: run and somehow they're here.

880
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 1: They are awful, so.

881
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 3: But hey, they might be back in the Europa League

882
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 3: to defend their title here in a little bit. So

883
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:45,480
Speaker 3: but no, I am taking Tottenham minus one at minus

884
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:47,800
Speaker 3: one twenty. This is a definitely a must win for

885
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 3: Tottenham here, Like they have to win this match to

886
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 3: pretty much secure if they're going to go through or

887
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 3: not in the easiest group in the competition. So I'm

888
00:41:57,640 --> 00:41:59,360
Speaker 3: on your beloved Spurs minus one. What do you have

889
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:01,480
Speaker 3: for Tottenham Frankfurt?

890
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:03,400
Speaker 2: You know, back to back matches, I felt like I

891
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 2: had a really good read on Spurs in terms of

892
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 2: how the match would play out, right, Like, you know,

893
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:10,920
Speaker 2: they created a bunch of big scoring chances in transition

894
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 2: against Frankfurt. They should have won that match. They didn't

895
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 2: finish any of them, so they didn't and I lost

896
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:18,480
Speaker 2: my bet. And then this weekend I faded them and

897
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 2: I said, Brighton will control large portions of the match.

898
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 2: They will keep Spurs pitting their own box. Spurs will

899
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:27,719
Speaker 2: not be able to generate much in transition Brighton, will

900
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:30,800
Speaker 2: you know, you know, we feel like Tottham's under the

901
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 2: cosh for most of this match. I would say that

902
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:35,799
Speaker 2: the first twenty minutes Spurs were very good, thought they

903
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 2: played really well. But after about twenty ish minutes Brighton,

904
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:41,840
Speaker 2: I mean it was I mean it was fun to

905
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:45,720
Speaker 2: watch because Brighton beautifully played Spurs in these certain traps.

906
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 2: And you can tell Spurs are not the most cohesive

907
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:49,800
Speaker 2: pressing unit. They don't do a great job of it,

908
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:52,239
Speaker 2: and so they would get caught out and then one

909
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:54,800
Speaker 2: ball to the wing Brighton were in. They would progress

910
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:57,040
Speaker 2: the ball up the pitch and then once they were there,

911
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:00,880
Speaker 2: Spurs really struggle to get out. And I thought that

912
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:02,839
Speaker 2: was really the defining moment of the match. Both teams

913
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:05,160
Speaker 2: had their chances. It was a pretty even game, bright

914
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 2: and closed minus one twenty. I don't have problem with

915
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 2: either bet that I made. I lost both. That will happen.

916
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:11,759
Speaker 2: I will lose bets where I feel like I was

917
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:13,320
Speaker 2: on the right side, and then sometimes I'll have the

918
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:15,399
Speaker 2: shack tar under three and a half and I'll win

919
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:17,840
Speaker 2: right And you know, we both had a bit of

920
00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:20,360
Speaker 2: a bad run lately. It will come back. But I

921
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:23,879
Speaker 2: think the takeaway for this match is that I don't

922
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 2: really want to lay a goal with Tottenham in this one,

923
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:29,200
Speaker 2: Like I don't love their ability to get margin. Fand

924
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 2: Will opened to bad number and I grabbed it, but

925
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 2: like now it's minus one eighty, No thanks, I'm going

926
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 2: to pass here. Spurs need to win this for the

927
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:39,800
Speaker 2: group future that I have, So yeah, we're looking a

928
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:42,520
Speaker 2: little dicey on that front. Although Sporting did have the

929
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 2: most bizarre we'll get to that match.

930
00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk about that match Sporting. Another goalie just yep.

931
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,359
Speaker 2: The fifteen minutes late. The bus was fifteen minutes late

932
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 2: getting there. What did the goalie do in the fifteen minutes?

933
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 2: Like a don Like what were you doing man like

934
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,800
Speaker 2: your first he just you know, kicks the ball into

935
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:06,279
Speaker 2: Alexis for the first goal off of him into the goal.

936
00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 1: Yep, ridiculous.

937
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 2: Then yep, just they're playing half in the back. He

938
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:13,120
Speaker 2: just kicks it over the defender into an attacking player

939
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:15,919
Speaker 2: two passes later, and then he gets sent off trying

940
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 2: to like run out of his penalty area and make

941
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:21,279
Speaker 2: like a superhero play and the match is over. I mean,

942
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 2: under two and a half is cooked. So that was

943
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 2: a fun one on a fun fun Champions League Tuesday. Yea,

944
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 2: but so have no interest in betting this match, and

945
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:31,560
Speaker 2: I'm not going to get sucked into betting these two

946
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:35,240
Speaker 2: luck box teams. Yeah, Sporting is still good defensively despite

947
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 2: their goalie going kamakazi last week. I think they can

948
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 2: definitely keep Marseille off the board. Marseille did lose this

949
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 2: weekend a juxio. But yeah, I'm not betting this match

950
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 2: and I will not be watching this match. I will

951
00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:51,040
Speaker 2: never turn it on, I will hope hope for a draw,

952
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:52,759
Speaker 2: and I will not be betting this.

953
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:55,359
Speaker 3: Finally, coming around to your senses, just don't even watch

954
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:58,320
Speaker 3: this Marseille luck box. Yeah, I mean you hit the

955
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:00,320
Speaker 3: nail on the head, like coming in do it. I

956
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 3: was like, all in spot here for Sporting. I know

957
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 3: they're at the top of the group, but this is

958
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:07,759
Speaker 3: a perfect scenario for them. And then I turned on

959
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:09,960
Speaker 3: the match like three minutes late, I saw there up

960
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 3: one nothing. I got really happy. I was like, okay,

961
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 3: this is good. Uh and then just completely downhill. So

962
00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 3: without their starting goalkeeper, a Sporting team that really hasn't

963
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 3: been that good in their domestic league to start the season,

964
00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:24,320
Speaker 3: like they're in seventh in the Portuguese league, which is

965
00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 3: kind of concerning. Their under numbers are a little better,

966
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 3: but yeah they are a little better. Yeah, but they're

967
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:32,279
Speaker 3: nowhere near Beneficas or Porthos so and that's the that's

968
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:35,879
Speaker 3: the problem. So yeah, I am passing on this match.

969
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:37,400
Speaker 3: And the market is kind of caught up. I mean,

970
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 3: you know, we had essentially Marseille was was plus one

971
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:44,279
Speaker 3: twenty five at home, sportings plus one twenty So they're

972
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 3: basically just telling you like, hey, we don't think Marseille

973
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 3: is actually that good, and so, uh, yeah, I will

974
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 3: be passing because I only have Sporting up plus one eleven.

975
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 3: So uh, let's move on to Group B, which sets

976
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 3: up like this. Club Bruge is at the top with

977
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:05,719
Speaker 3: nine points. They have scored seven goals and they have

978
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 3: not conceded one. Porto is in second place with three points,

979
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 3: Leverkusen is in third place with three points, and at

980
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:16,840
Speaker 3: luddy Co Madrid is in fourth place with three points.

981
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 3: Let's start off on Wednesday in the Leverkusen Porto match.

982
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 3: I was very encouraged by what Porto was able to

983
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:29,919
Speaker 3: do against Leverkusen. Obviously, if you look at the final

984
00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:32,680
Speaker 3: XG for that match, yes, Leverkusten did went on XG

985
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 3: one point three to one point one, but there was

986
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:37,319
Speaker 3: a shick missed penalty in there. There was a couple

987
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:39,799
Speaker 3: you know things that got varred off as well.

988
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 1: Porto did. Yeah, all time bar game I, Porto.

989
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 3: Did a very very good job counter attack and they

990
00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:49,359
Speaker 3: really took control of the match in the second half.

991
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 3: You know, there was you know, Frimprong got a red

992
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 3: card late, so he won't be playing in this match. Porto,

993
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:57,320
Speaker 3: you know, ended up with twenty nine touches inside of

994
00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:01,879
Speaker 3: Leverkusen's penalty area. They had around you know, twelve box

995
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:03,759
Speaker 3: centuries as well. Like it was It was a very

996
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:07,279
Speaker 3: good performance and I thought they countered a wide open

997
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 3: lever Couston team as well. Now this is one of

998
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:12,520
Speaker 3: those matches, Anthony, that you say, Okay, well, what's changed

999
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:15,120
Speaker 3: now from six days ago. Well, lever Custon's got a

1000
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:18,880
Speaker 3: new manager. It's job Hi Alonso, who managed them to

1001
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:20,400
Speaker 3: afford nothing win over the weekend.

1002
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:23,360
Speaker 2: Kind of a kind of the new manager Bounds personified

1003
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:23,719
Speaker 2: right there.

1004
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:26,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, it kind of an out of nowhere higher I

1005
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:29,320
Speaker 3: think because he's been managing rialso Sidad's B team for

1006
00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 3: a while hasn't really been like up in one of

1007
00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:34,320
Speaker 3: the up upcoming leagues or anything like that. Yeah, just

1008
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 3: to kind of out of nowhere higher. I don't really

1009
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:38,759
Speaker 3: know what to expect with him. But in terms of

1010
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:42,680
Speaker 3: this match, you know, uh, Leverkusen is plus one fifteen

1011
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 3: on the money line, Porto plus two twenty five at

1012
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 3: the draw sting and plus two sixty. This is essentially

1013
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:53,280
Speaker 3: the exact same line, uh, just reversed for home field advantage.

1014
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:56,239
Speaker 3: So you have to ask yourself, Okay, were these team

1015
00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:59,319
Speaker 3: teams incredibly even and nothing's really has changed. I thought

1016
00:47:59,360 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 3: Porto was a little bit better and I came into

1017
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:03,759
Speaker 3: that match again in the Porto Leverkusen match, with a

1018
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 3: ton of value on Porto thinking they were the better team,

1019
00:48:06,680 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 3: and after that match, I still think they're the better team.

1020
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:11,840
Speaker 3: So I am going to take Porto plus half a

1021
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:13,800
Speaker 3: goal at minus one thirty five. Do you have anything

1022
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:16,000
Speaker 3: for Leverkusen Porto.

1023
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:18,399
Speaker 2: Not really, you know, I ended up passing last week.

1024
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:20,319
Speaker 2: I felt like I you know, even though Porto won

1025
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:22,400
Speaker 2: two nil, I felt like passing was the right decision.

1026
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:24,560
Speaker 2: When I went back through the match in the box score,

1027
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:26,160
Speaker 2: it was just a weird game.

1028
00:48:26,680 --> 00:48:26,800
Speaker 3: You know.

1029
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 2: Porto gets a goal vard Off and then they give

1030
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 2: a penalty to leverkus at the other end because and

1031
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 2: that's why the goal was bart off. It wasn't off side,

1032
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:36,720
Speaker 2: no foul, clean goal, but actually you committed a penalty

1033
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:38,360
Speaker 2: a minute ago at the other end, so we're going

1034
00:48:38,440 --> 00:48:40,799
Speaker 2: to give the penalty to Leverkusen. Then they missed the pen.

1035
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 2: It was just a crazy back and forth game. I

1036
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:46,600
Speaker 2: think these two teams are pretty even thought that last week,

1037
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:49,200
Speaker 2: still think that if you put a gun to my

1038
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:50,719
Speaker 2: head and made me bet it, I'd take the under.

1039
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 2: But you know, I think this is a kind of

1040
00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:55,839
Speaker 2: a better time for I want to talk about new

1041
00:48:55,880 --> 00:48:59,839
Speaker 2: manager Bounces and how No Chobby Alonso coming into lever

1042
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:02,319
Speaker 2: Us did not automatically make that like nothing he did

1043
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 2: on the training ground for the last day, the one

1044
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 2: day practice with them made them a better soccer team.

1045
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 2: They were just a team who was in the seventeenth

1046
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 2: who had a home match against a really bad Shaka

1047
00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 2: team and rolled them. But they were just, you know,

1048
00:49:15,560 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 2: a team who had underperformed the underline numbers early in

1049
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 2: the season. We've talked about Leverkusen. I don't know what

1050
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:22,840
Speaker 2: to do with them. They come into the season overrated,

1051
00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:26,520
Speaker 2: now they're underrated. Like I'm I'm not going either way

1052
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:30,200
Speaker 2: on this team. I think they're Their underline numbers show

1053
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:32,160
Speaker 2: they've not quite the level they were last year. I

1054
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:34,120
Speaker 2: wonder if that will change when Burtz comes back. Obviously

1055
00:49:34,160 --> 00:49:38,319
Speaker 2: he's not playing this match, but overall I am staying away.

1056
00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:43,359
Speaker 3: Let's get to the In my opinion, the premier match

1057
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:47,160
Speaker 3: of the entire Champions League Tuesday and Wednesday at leeddy

1058
00:49:47,200 --> 00:49:52,520
Speaker 3: Co Madrid hosting first place club Bruges at Lettiko is

1059
00:49:52,600 --> 00:49:55,400
Speaker 3: minus two fifty on the money line Bruce seven to one.

1060
00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 3: The draw sting up plus three seventy five. This is

1061
00:49:57,640 --> 00:50:00,600
Speaker 3: a twelve forty five pm Eastern Time match, so it's

1062
00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:03,920
Speaker 3: the premier match, along with Napoli and IAX.

1063
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:06,719
Speaker 1: The most all in spot of all in spots of

1064
00:50:06,840 --> 00:50:08,239
Speaker 1: all time. A lot of alls there.

1065
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:11,480
Speaker 3: Bruges, like I mentioned, has scored seven goals, they have

1066
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:15,439
Speaker 3: conceded none. They have created four point eight expected goals

1067
00:50:16,320 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 3: and they've allowed four point two expected goals.

1068
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:22,880
Speaker 1: This team is horrible.

1069
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:26,440
Speaker 3: They're not horrible, but they're not as good as essentially

1070
00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:29,000
Speaker 3: what their numbers suggest they are right now. And in

1071
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:31,600
Speaker 3: that match against Athletico, I know you're gonna disagree with me,

1072
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 3: but I thought that Athletico played really, really well. And

1073
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:38,160
Speaker 3: guess what, when you put Diego Simoni's back against a wall,

1074
00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 3: he always comes out and he always delivers under pressure.

1075
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:46,120
Speaker 3: And even in that match, I mean, Bruges had twelve

1076
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:48,800
Speaker 3: touches in the penalty area and five box entries and

1077
00:50:48,880 --> 00:50:49,840
Speaker 3: they scored twice.

1078
00:50:50,320 --> 00:50:51,040
Speaker 1: Like this is crazy.

1079
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 3: They took seven shots and scored two of them. I

1080
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:56,160
Speaker 3: can't believe this team. Like this team just is on

1081
00:50:56,360 --> 00:51:00,360
Speaker 3: the craziest finishing rate of all time. Any little stake

1082
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 3: that their opponent makes, they just automatically capitalize it on

1083
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:06,480
Speaker 3: score and score. It's crazy. I cannot believe they keep

1084
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:10,840
Speaker 3: doing this. So I'm taking Diego Simione minus one and

1085
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 3: a half at plus one thirty. Regressions coming for this

1086
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 3: Bruce team. And I went and looked. There's a lot

1087
00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:21,279
Speaker 3: of scenarios that have to happen, but they are ten

1088
00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:23,439
Speaker 3: to one to not get through to the next round,

1089
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:27,319
Speaker 3: which I think is a bet that I have to make.

1090
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 3: At a principle, again, a lot of things have to

1091
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 3: bounce their way, like essentially one of these teams has

1092
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:36,480
Speaker 3: to be, you know, between levercous and Porto or Athletico

1093
00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:38,839
Speaker 3: has to be essentially really bad and lose the other

1094
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:42,120
Speaker 3: two matches and the other two have to win. But yeah,

1095
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:46,000
Speaker 3: this Bruce team, their day of reckoning is coming and

1096
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:49,480
Speaker 3: it's gonna be at the Wanda Metropolitan. So I am

1097
00:51:49,600 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 3: taking Athletico minus one and a half at plus one thirty.

1098
00:51:52,600 --> 00:51:53,560
Speaker 1: What do you have for this match?

1099
00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:57,720
Speaker 2: Look, you guys almost talked me into betting at Letti

1100
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:00,799
Speaker 2: last week, and you should have saying, I stayed away

1101
00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:04,080
Speaker 2: later so I did some more digging into this bruised team.

1102
00:52:04,160 --> 00:52:07,000
Speaker 2: There they have they been fortunate of course, like they

1103
00:52:07,040 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 2: should not have won all three matches in the Champions

1104
00:52:09,160 --> 00:52:12,120
Speaker 2: League this year. They're not on that level, of course,

1105
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:15,200
Speaker 2: but like, at what point do we just kind of

1106
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:18,600
Speaker 2: like respect what they've done and how they've played in

1107
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 2: three matches in this league. And they do have an

1108
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:23,200
Speaker 2: interesting young core, Like they're one of the youngest teams

1109
00:52:23,200 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 2: in this league. Uh, they in this tournament they have look,

1110
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:30,920
Speaker 2: I mean, they look like they're very cohesive out of possession,

1111
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 2: which we know is extremely important in the Champions League.

1112
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:37,200
Speaker 2: They're very comfortable playing without the ball. They like I left,

1113
00:52:37,239 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 2: they didn't really create much in that match. Well, a

1114
00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:44,440
Speaker 2: lot of that half that was the penalty, you know,

1115
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:48,799
Speaker 2: third that was a penalty. So Leverkusen again like we're

1116
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:50,040
Speaker 2: gonna let you have the ball, but we're going to

1117
00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:51,279
Speaker 2: defend our box really well.

1118
00:52:51,680 --> 00:52:52,640
Speaker 1: It was very effective.

1119
00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:56,719
Speaker 2: Uh they've now done it three times and I know

1120
00:52:56,840 --> 00:52:58,360
Speaker 2: it's probably a good seal spot, but the numbers is

1121
00:52:58,360 --> 00:53:01,160
Speaker 2: not good enough for me. So I'm past and look

1122
00:53:01,160 --> 00:53:03,760
Speaker 2: I let to you again. Home match against Girona this weekend,

1123
00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:07,640
Speaker 2: pretty uninspiring attacking performance, Like I don't trust i'd letty

1124
00:53:07,680 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 2: to get margin. That's that's the thing with me here too,

1125
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 2: is like back, like they might win this by a goal.

1126
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:14,520
Speaker 2: They might sneak out a two to one win luck

1127
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:17,759
Speaker 2: box tradition, you know, late goal. But I can't trust

1128
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:20,120
Speaker 2: me to get margin and I the numbers I good enough,

1129
00:53:20,239 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 2: So another pass for me, not the biggest slate of

1130
00:53:23,160 --> 00:53:24,600
Speaker 2: me with me in the Champions League.

1131
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:27,040
Speaker 3: I trust Diegos and be on with my life to

1132
00:53:27,080 --> 00:53:29,400
Speaker 3: get margin. So I'm taking athlettic Co minus f one

1133
00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:32,640
Speaker 3: and a half. All right, that wraps up the Champions

1134
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:36,960
Speaker 3: League slate. Let's take a quick jaunter over to the

1135
00:53:37,080 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 3: Europa League and europe Conference League. I have one pick

1136
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:43,560
Speaker 3: and it is Rudstar Belgrade. John Obett at plus one

1137
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:45,600
Speaker 3: ten on the road at Far and Savarros. You know,

1138
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:47,279
Speaker 3: last week was a good cell high spot on Far

1139
00:53:47,360 --> 00:53:49,440
Speaker 3: and Savarros. They had won their first two matches. They

1140
00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:53,399
Speaker 3: had been quite fortunate. They essentially in their match their

1141
00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:57,160
Speaker 3: first match at the group stage against Trebon Spor, they

1142
00:53:57,200 --> 00:53:59,239
Speaker 3: scored three goals on their first four shots, and then

1143
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:01,920
Speaker 3: when they went on play Monaco they got completely dominated

1144
00:54:01,920 --> 00:54:03,400
Speaker 3: and then they score on to the deflection goal to

1145
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:09,360
Speaker 3: win one nothing. Belgrade just completely dominated them. In the

1146
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:12,200
Speaker 3: last match, two point two unexpected goals two point six.

1147
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:15,560
Speaker 3: There was a penalty in the in there, but far

1148
00:54:15,600 --> 00:54:18,200
Speaker 3: and Savaras was just completely outmatched. And this is also

1149
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:20,960
Speaker 3: I love the One of the reasons I love betting

1150
00:54:21,040 --> 00:54:24,000
Speaker 3: on Red Star Belgrade is one of my theories essentially

1151
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:26,920
Speaker 3: in the Europa League and the Champions League is you

1152
00:54:27,040 --> 00:54:28,719
Speaker 3: have to be able to put up good expected goals

1153
00:54:28,800 --> 00:54:30,799
Speaker 3: numbers in your domestic league if you're one of these

1154
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:33,319
Speaker 3: teams outside of the Big five, Because if you can't

1155
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:34,759
Speaker 3: do it in your own domestic league, what makes you

1156
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:36,520
Speaker 3: think you're going to come into the Europa League or

1157
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:38,919
Speaker 3: the Champions League and beat some of the other teams

1158
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 3: that are even outside of the Big five. Red Star

1159
00:54:41,280 --> 00:54:44,439
Speaker 3: Belgrade consistently over the last two years has a plus

1160
00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:47,320
Speaker 3: one point five actually differential per ninety in the average

1161
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:49,719
Speaker 3: around two and a half expected goals per ninety in

1162
00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:53,399
Speaker 3: the Serbian League. So they're a team I really love

1163
00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:55,160
Speaker 3: buying in the Europa League. So I'm going to buy

1164
00:54:55,200 --> 00:54:56,919
Speaker 3: them here again because they're also in an all in spot.

1165
00:54:56,920 --> 00:54:58,560
Speaker 3: They're still in last place in their group. They need

1166
00:54:58,600 --> 00:55:01,239
Speaker 3: to win this match, so I bet plus one ten

1167
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:05,080
Speaker 3: four Red Star Belgrade against Barren Savarros, do you have

1168
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:06,080
Speaker 3: anything in the Europa League.

1169
00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:08,560
Speaker 2: I really wanted to play Boo Glimt and I still might.

1170
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:11,000
Speaker 2: They are I think we got to play Roma, right,

1171
00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:12,839
Speaker 2: I think they're at home against Arsenal, but yeah, I'm

1172
00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:15,839
Speaker 2: playing Roma. That was my best bet. I laid off

1173
00:55:15,920 --> 00:55:17,560
Speaker 2: Roma last week. I thought about betting them for a

1174
00:55:17,600 --> 00:55:21,200
Speaker 2: long time at home against Real Betis. Bettis has been

1175
00:55:21,239 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 2: in a weird run of red cards lately. They did

1176
00:55:23,640 --> 00:55:27,080
Speaker 2: win last week, but again red card involved. They had

1177
00:55:27,120 --> 00:55:30,719
Speaker 2: a red card in their loss to Salt Vigo, then

1178
00:55:30,760 --> 00:55:33,080
Speaker 2: they had a red card in their game today in

1179
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:35,359
Speaker 2: La Liga. So it's been weird and you can't really

1180
00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:37,000
Speaker 2: trust the data. But what we do know about these

1181
00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:39,800
Speaker 2: two teams is that one is a major positive regression candidate.

1182
00:55:39,840 --> 00:55:43,400
Speaker 2: One is a major negative regression candidate. Roma is on

1183
00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:46,360
Speaker 2: the road here. I almost like Marino more here in

1184
00:55:46,520 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 2: and the road spot as a dog when I don't

1185
00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:51,680
Speaker 2: need him to get margin and I don't worry about

1186
00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:53,680
Speaker 2: his defense leaking away a goal when he needs to

1187
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:56,040
Speaker 2: salt away a win and he's trying to salt away

1188
00:55:56,040 --> 00:55:58,799
Speaker 2: a win. I almost prefer that to Marino at home

1189
00:55:58,840 --> 00:56:02,400
Speaker 2: trying to get margin and having the impetus to come

1190
00:56:02,440 --> 00:56:04,480
Speaker 2: out and play a little bit more so. Yeah, I

1191
00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:06,960
Speaker 2: like rum at home around the road rather John Obett

1192
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:09,399
Speaker 2: plus one five this morning.

1193
00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:12,439
Speaker 3: All right, and let's wrap things up with our best

1194
00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:14,600
Speaker 3: bets for the Champions League anything. I'll start with you,

1195
00:56:14,800 --> 00:56:16,799
Speaker 3: what is your best bet for this Champions League slate?

1196
00:56:16,920 --> 00:56:18,880
Speaker 2: Ya, I'm going back to the well on the PSG

1197
00:56:19,040 --> 00:56:22,000
Speaker 2: Benfica under three point twenty five goals at minus one

1198
00:56:22,040 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 2: pH eight. These two teams played six days prior to

1199
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:28,400
Speaker 2: when they're going to play on Tuesday, there was less

1200
00:56:28,520 --> 00:56:31,000
Speaker 2: than one point eight expected goals less than two point

1201
00:56:31,080 --> 00:56:34,360
Speaker 2: three expected threat. Benfica did an excellent job defending the

1202
00:56:34,400 --> 00:56:37,319
Speaker 2: penalty area. Messi is questionable for this match after going

1203
00:56:37,360 --> 00:56:40,400
Speaker 2: off with an injury. Benfica also showed an ability to

1204
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:43,000
Speaker 2: play through a little bit and even cause some problems

1205
00:56:43,040 --> 00:56:45,040
Speaker 2: for PSG. I actually think that's a good thing because

1206
00:56:45,080 --> 00:56:48,120
Speaker 2: the more time they're spending poking and prodding and trying

1207
00:56:48,200 --> 00:56:50,200
Speaker 2: to pick out a pass and get through PSG, the

1208
00:56:50,320 --> 00:56:52,640
Speaker 2: less time they're spending guarding their own box.

1209
00:56:52,440 --> 00:56:53,040
Speaker 1: With their lives.

1210
00:56:53,520 --> 00:56:55,719
Speaker 2: This is just a classic spot where a draw again

1211
00:56:55,800 --> 00:56:58,360
Speaker 2: suits both teams. So if it's one one late PSG

1212
00:56:58,480 --> 00:57:00,440
Speaker 2: and Benfica. There is not really a huge incentive to

1213
00:57:00,480 --> 00:57:02,600
Speaker 2: go run up the score for either team. I like

1214
00:57:02,680 --> 00:57:06,360
Speaker 2: the under here. Benfica have been dominant defensively in Portugal.

1215
00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:09,239
Speaker 2: They've translated it pretty well into the Champions League as well.

1216
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:11,719
Speaker 2: I like them to do it again. Nothing's changed in

1217
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:14,040
Speaker 2: the last week under three and a quarter minus one

1218
00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:14,319
Speaker 2: oh eight.

1219
00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:18,280
Speaker 3: I am taking Diego Simoni and Athletic Co Madrid minus

1220
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:20,200
Speaker 3: four and a half at plus one point thirty at

1221
00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:23,880
Speaker 3: home against Club Bruge. This is a perfect cell high

1222
00:57:24,080 --> 00:57:26,440
Speaker 3: spot for a Club Bruge team that is on an

1223
00:57:26,480 --> 00:57:30,720
Speaker 3: insane finishing rate right now. They have scored six goals

1224
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:33,520
Speaker 3: from inside the box off of eleven shots. That is

1225
00:57:33,560 --> 00:57:35,680
Speaker 3: not sustainable and it will not keep up. They have

1226
00:57:35,760 --> 00:57:38,680
Speaker 3: scored seven goals in the Champions League. They have not conceded,

1227
00:57:39,040 --> 00:57:41,360
Speaker 3: but they only have created four point eight expected goals

1228
00:57:41,480 --> 00:57:45,120
Speaker 3: and they have allowed four point two expected goals. So

1229
00:57:45,280 --> 00:57:47,520
Speaker 3: this team is due to regress. They're very young. They

1230
00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:49,920
Speaker 3: got two teenagers in their back line. The last match

1231
00:57:49,960 --> 00:57:52,720
Speaker 3: against Athletico they only had twelve touches in the penalty

1232
00:57:52,760 --> 00:57:55,680
Speaker 3: area only five box centuries, so they didn't really create

1233
00:57:55,800 --> 00:57:58,160
Speaker 3: much other than a few big scoring chances. This is

1234
00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:00,800
Speaker 3: an all in spot here for Athletico, who really needs

1235
00:58:00,840 --> 00:58:02,520
Speaker 3: to win this match if they want any shot of

1236
00:58:02,600 --> 00:58:05,320
Speaker 3: getting through. So give me Diego Simioni with what's back

1237
00:58:05,320 --> 00:58:07,720
Speaker 3: against the wall and athleticope minus one and a half

1238
00:58:07,840 --> 00:58:10,160
Speaker 3: at plus one point thirty. All right, that I'll do

1239
00:58:10,240 --> 00:58:13,280
Speaker 3: it for this episode of Wonder Goal. Thank you to Anthony.

1240
00:58:13,360 --> 00:58:16,520
Speaker 3: Michael will be back in the host chair on Thursday

1241
00:58:16,640 --> 00:58:19,920
Speaker 3: morning for our weekend preview for what we go through

1242
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:21,960
Speaker 3: the Premier League and the rest of the four leagues.

1243
00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:24,200
Speaker 1: Thank you ell for listening.

1244
00:58:24,480 --> 00:58:26,160
Speaker 3: Make sure to follow a Wonder Goal in the Action

1245
00:58:26,240 --> 00:58:28,800
Speaker 3: Network app for all of our best bets and underdogs

1246
00:58:28,800 --> 00:58:32,360
Speaker 3: across the Champions League and the rest of Europe. For

1247
00:58:32,600 --> 00:58:35,720
Speaker 3: Anthony Dabundo, I'm BJ Cunningham. Good luck on your Champions

1248
00:58:35,760 --> 00:58:36,480
Speaker 3: League bets this week.