1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,480 Speaker 1: Hi, This is new because of the coronavirus. I am 2 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:06,960 Speaker 1: currently staying at home in Rome, where my wife serves 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:09,800 Speaker 1: as the United States ambassador to the Holy See. She's 4 00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: leading the embassy and dealing with all the different changes 5 00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:16,480 Speaker 1: being brought about by the pandemic. To bring you this 6 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:19,919 Speaker 1: episode this week, I'm recording from my home, so you 7 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 1: may notice a difference in audio quality. We have twenty 8 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 1: six and a half million small businesses in this country. 9 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: We talk ourselves into a situation that we don't have 10 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: to be in, that we do not have to go 11 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: into a recession, and that if there is some short 12 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: term pain, that's exactly what it should be a short 13 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: term On this episode of News World, the coronavirus or 14 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen is spreading rapidly in the United States and 15 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:49,640 Speaker 1: around the world, and it's having a major impact on 16 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:53,559 Speaker 1: our global economy. The stock market has experienced its biggest 17 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 1: losses in history. As bars, restaurants, gyms, and other places 18 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 1: where we socially gather close, Many hourly workers are losing 19 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 1: their jobs. The travel business, including airlines and hotels, are 20 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 1: facing furloughs and layouts. Many small businesses are being impacted. 21 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: We are all bracing for the economic impact the coronavirus 22 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 1: may have on all of us. But what is the 23 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 1: right economic policy we should be pursuing at this time. 24 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 1: Do we send thousand dollars checks to everyone who needs 25 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: the money, or to incentivize the economy with tax measures 26 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 1: that will boost the businesses most significantly impacted so they 27 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 1: can preserve their workforce. As the trillion dollar coronavirus economic 28 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 1: bailout makes its way through Congress, I think it's important 29 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:45,680 Speaker 1: to discuss how the US economy should be supported and 30 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 1: pleased to welcome my guests, Steve Moore distinguish visiting fellow 31 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 1: for the Project for Economic Growth at the Heritage Foundation 32 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: and Charles Paint, host of Making Money with Charles Paint 33 00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 1: on the Fox to Business Network. We're doing such damage 34 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 1: to the economy as a function of our public health 35 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:19,080 Speaker 1: measures that I wanted to have somebody who I've worked 36 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 1: with for years and who I have enormous respect for 37 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 1: share with us his view. Certainly one of the people 38 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 1: who best understands the Reagan Revolution, the rise of supply 39 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: side economics, and why Trump's policies for three years were 40 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:36,959 Speaker 1: so effective. And that's doctor Steve Moore to who's at 41 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:41,799 Speaker 1: Heritage and who has been very close to the White House. Steve, 42 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:44,800 Speaker 1: I'd really love for you to share with us if 43 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,279 Speaker 1: you were in the president's shoes and you had the 44 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: challenges we currently have, what would your recommendations do. But 45 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 1: let's start with the most important point, which is this 46 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: president really has rebuilt the American economy an incredible way 47 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:01,080 Speaker 1: over the last three years, and this gives us a 48 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 1: good starting point. You go back just three weeks ago, 49 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:08,160 Speaker 1: we had that Job's report with three hundred and fifty 50 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 1: thousand new jobs, including the revisions from previous months. The 51 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 1: economy was growing at three to three and a half percent, 52 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 1: something that had never happened in eight years under Obama. 53 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 1: We had the lowest unemployment rate three and a half percent, 54 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 1: that we've got in our lifetime. So we start this 55 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 1: virus situation with an economy, thank goodness, that is strong 56 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 1: to begin with, but there is going to be a 57 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 1: heavy toll and it already is being felt around the country. 58 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 1: I'm in washingtonc right now. Most of the streets of 59 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 1: Washington are pretty vacant right now. My son lives in 60 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 1: San Francisco. San Francisco is in a total lockdown. It 61 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 1: may be very similar to your situation there in Italy. 62 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: Manhattan is the same way. So this is going to 63 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 1: be a heavy, heavy toll on the economy. There's just 64 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 1: no question about it. We just have to hope that 65 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 1: this doesn't last more than six to eight weeks. Now, 66 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 1: what would I do if I were the president? The 67 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 1: single most important thing he did is that he down 68 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 1: travel from China. That was the single most important public 69 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: health measure. Now, the first thing I would do, and 70 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: the President is doing this. We have twenty six and 71 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 1: a half million small businesses in this country. The vast, 72 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 1: vast majority of them were very healthy going into this. 73 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 1: We don't want those companies to go bankrupt because as 74 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 1: soon as this is over, we want them to be 75 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 1: able to spring back to life. And so what the 76 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:26,479 Speaker 1: President has done is said, look, if you can't get 77 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 1: a loan from a bank, we're going to open up 78 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 1: the government credit for you so that you can get 79 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 1: a six month loan at maybe one percent interest to 80 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: make sure you don't have to go bankrupt or have 81 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 1: a fighter sale on your assets. We also want to 82 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:42,039 Speaker 1: make sure that these companies can meet their payrolls and 83 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 1: not have to lay off all of their employees. If 84 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 1: you do that, then as soon as this is over, 85 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 1: instead of companies that are bankrupt, you have companies that 86 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: can get going again and get our economy back to normally. 87 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 1: The second thing that you need to do is make 88 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,920 Speaker 1: sure that the steps that you take to provide temporary 89 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 1: help to people are not going to impede the economy 90 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:05,120 Speaker 1: once we come out of this. Almost everything Nancy Pelosi 91 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:08,040 Speaker 1: wants to do would actually weaken the economy. Just let 92 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 1: me give you one example. It's amazing. She wants to 93 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:15,600 Speaker 1: require every business in America to provide paid leave to 94 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 1: their employees. Now, now, where the businesses are going to 95 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 1: get the money to do that. I mean, it's just 96 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 1: a really bad policy to require that of businesses. We 97 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 1: shouldn't be doing welfare programs. I don't have a big 98 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:30,600 Speaker 1: problem with the one thousand dollars payments right now, just 99 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 1: to give people some cash. I like the idea of 100 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 1: suspending the payroll tax for every business in America and 101 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:39,840 Speaker 1: every worker in America. That's one hundred and sixty million 102 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 1: Americans which would get a tax cut, and twenty seven 103 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 1: million small businesses that are facing a financial crunch. Would 104 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: get a seven percent reduction on their payroll costs. I 105 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:52,159 Speaker 1: love that idea. Trump likes it. Let's hope that he 106 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 1: does it. What's the advantage of that over just continuing 107 00:05:57,160 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: to send more money after the first thousand dollars? Is that? 108 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 1: Will you sort of stop? How do you see this 109 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:06,480 Speaker 1: playing out? If the government gives us somebody a thousand dollars, 110 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:08,480 Speaker 1: new it has to take a thousand dollars away from 111 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 1: someone else, Right, If there's no sense thing, it's pretty money. 112 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 1: The government can only give money to someone if it 113 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: takes money from somebody who is productive in the economy. 114 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 1: This is a redistribution program away from people are producing 115 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 1: to people who, in many cases are not producing. That's 116 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 1: not a way to grow the economy. Now, I'm not 117 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:29,279 Speaker 1: saying we shouldn't do it as a kind of humanitarian, 118 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:31,919 Speaker 1: compassionate policy to make sure people don't go hungry and 119 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 1: are financially strapped, but it should be a short term policy. 120 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 1: If you eliminate the payroll tax, you're giving incentives for 121 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 1: businesses to hire workers, especially when we come out of 122 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:45,600 Speaker 1: the recession, and you give workers an incentive to work more. Right, 123 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:48,480 Speaker 1: because you're giving every worker essentially a seven and a 124 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 1: half percent raise by taking less money out of their paycheck, 125 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 1: and you're reducing the payroll costs of employers, so it 126 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 1: has positive incentive effects unlike many of these other welfare programs. 127 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 1: Somebody is talking about the idea of going to one 128 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 1: hundred percent expensing on a permanent basis to encourage businesses 129 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 1: to dramatically modernize and also to give them the resources 130 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 1: to pull their step back from China. Do you have 131 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 1: any feel personally on the whole issue of expensing and 132 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: the presence fantastic tax cut that we did in two seventeen. 133 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 1: We basically provided businesses with expensing and that has been 134 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,680 Speaker 1: a boon to the economy, There's no question. So I 135 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: would love to see that made permanent. Absolutely, that would 136 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 1: be a good policy. I would like to see a 137 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 1: reduction in the capital gain section. The one mistake we 138 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 1: made in our tax bill because we didn't have the 139 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 1: votes to do it, was to cut the tax on 140 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: capital gains, which is a tax on investment. We're going 141 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 1: to need more investment. I like any policy that provides 142 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: positive incentives, and economics is all about incentives. How do 143 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 1: you incentivize businesses to hire. How do you incentivize businesses 144 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:56,200 Speaker 1: to invest, how do you incentivize people to work? Yes, 145 00:07:56,280 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 1: tax reductions can have a very positive impact. If we 146 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 1: could get the Treasury to move to fifty one hundred 147 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 1: year bonds at the current extraordinarily low interest rate, we 148 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: would liberate an out year so much money when the 149 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: interest rates naturally go up as the economy recovers. If 150 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 1: you could lock in fifty one hundred year bonds a 151 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: one and a half or two percent, and given that 152 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 1: the world is as a natural flight to safety, and 153 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:28,680 Speaker 1: in the end that means to the United States, I 154 00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 1: would think the market would absorb those bonds pretty rapidly. Well, 155 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 1: there is exactly right. I mean, this is the most 156 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 1: amazing time. I never thought i'd see a time in 157 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 1: my lifetime when you would see a ten year Treasury 158 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:45,439 Speaker 1: bill is at I think point eight and the thirty 159 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 1: year treasury is a little over one percent. And if 160 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 1: you did a fifty year bond, you might be able 161 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 1: to lock in an interest rate and maybe one and 162 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: a quarter percent. That way, you're protecting yourself because look, 163 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 1: the federal government is twenty trillion dollars in debt. Protecting 164 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 1: yourself from the risk of interest rates going way up 165 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 1: in the future. I don't know how much they're going 166 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 1: to go up, but I guarantee you they're going to 167 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,679 Speaker 1: go up in the next two, five, ten, fifteen years. 168 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 1: And you're locking in those low rates. You're proposing, mister speaker, 169 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 1: is to refinance the debt, and absolutely we should, just 170 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,840 Speaker 1: like every homeowner is refinancing their mortgage. And it's a 171 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 1: great opportunity, and you're exactly right. I've calculated the savings 172 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 1: at about three trillion dollars over the next twenty five years, 173 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 1: three trillion dollars, and this is a good way to 174 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 1: finance these short term measures that we have to take 175 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 1: to make sure that this recession doesn't turn into a depression. Well, 176 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 1: the way is there any way to create a window 177 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: where people who have student debt could also roll that 178 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 1: over into this lower interest because I think the average 179 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:53,719 Speaker 1: student is at four or five percent. That saves them 180 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 1: over their lifetime a fair amount of money. The reason 181 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 1: we have a student debt crisis is because, in my opinion, 182 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 1: a single east scam in America, and it's been going 183 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 1: on for thirty years, is how much our colleges and 184 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:08,960 Speaker 1: universities are charging our families. It is outrageous. Every college 185 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 1: and university should be able to cut their tuition by 186 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: five or ten thousand dollars if they were efficient. And 187 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 1: the reason that we have these escalating tuition costs. If 188 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 1: you're a middle class family and you've got two kids 189 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 1: in college, you're talking about an expensive maybe one hundred 190 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 1: thousand dollars a year. I mean, how our families going 191 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:27,600 Speaker 1: to pay for that? But you're right for now, we 192 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:30,440 Speaker 1: should certainly try to refinance the student debt as well, 193 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:34,440 Speaker 1: but we have to drive tuition costs about next what 194 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 1: Americans can do about their financial well being during the 195 00:10:37,760 --> 00:11:00,120 Speaker 1: spread of the coronavirus. And I think the question and 196 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 1: we need to be asking, is where do you draw 197 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 1: a line? I mean, how much economic damage aren't we 198 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 1: willing to tolerate to save thirty or forty eight thousand lives. 199 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 1: We don't even know how many lives might be jeopardized 200 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 1: by this. I mean, right now, as we speak, there 201 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:16,839 Speaker 1: are fewer than fifty gusts from the coronavirus. That's fewer 202 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 1: people that die from a drug overdose. Is every day, 203 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 1: if we take a five trillion dollars hit to our 204 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 1: US economy. Think of the human toll that that will take. 205 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 1: I don't know the answer to this. I'm just kind 206 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 1: of asking the question. We can't continue for eight to 207 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 1: ten weeks with an American economy that's shut down. There 208 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 1: will be chaos, there will be suicides, there will be 209 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 1: people in the streets in deprivation. The consequence of shutting 210 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 1: it down our economy are enormous, like nothing we've ever 211 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 1: seen before. I think that's right. I think that they 212 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 1: have to pivot and begin to figure out a controlled 213 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:58,560 Speaker 1: way to begin reopening things. Yes, yes, totally agree with you. 214 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 1: If you can't have people congregating, it's going to be 215 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 1: very difficult for our economy as this goes on week 216 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 1: after week. The president has one thousand dollars program right 217 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:09,400 Speaker 1: now that they're going to sound out checks. Okay, well, 218 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 1: what are you going to do three weeks from now? 219 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 1: I guess on the people another thousand dollars. I mean, 220 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:14,960 Speaker 1: at some point, you do run out of money. In 221 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 1: South Korea and you walked into a hotel, they checked 222 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 1: your temperature. They would record your temperature. They actually allowed 223 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 1: a very high level of individual mobility, but it was 224 00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:29,839 Speaker 1: a continuously checked mobility. It's one thing to have a 225 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:33,439 Speaker 1: sort of shock effect for a few days. It doesn't 226 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 1: work if you're trying to do this for two or 227 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:39,959 Speaker 1: three or four months. I would argue that our national 228 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 1: security and our national health are the single most important things. 229 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:47,200 Speaker 1: And the fact that we're spending five trillion dollars it's 230 00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 1: been a month out we still don't have a good 231 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 1: screen and task for this virus is outrageous. And we 232 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:56,559 Speaker 1: spend billions and billions of dollars at the centers for 233 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:59,959 Speaker 1: disease control and on healthcare. We spent over a choice 234 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:03,200 Speaker 1: of dollars on government healthcare programs. The government has led 235 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 1: us dound big time here, and we got to figure 236 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 1: out how to fix this. I think the thing to 237 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:13,439 Speaker 1: recognize is this is like the fifth virus that cyclically 238 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 1: comes out of animals, and we ought to have a 239 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:19,440 Speaker 1: routine expectation of yes, it will happen. This is how 240 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:22,679 Speaker 1: we'll respond, what the government should be doing as assessing risks. 241 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 1: I mean, you could never have predicted this to happen, 242 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 1: but there are always risks. I mean, we know throughout 243 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:30,320 Speaker 1: history there have been plagues, and there have been viruses 244 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: and diseases. I mean, it was only a hundred years 245 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 1: ago we have the Spanish fluid that killed several million people. 246 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 1: I just think we should be better prepared for these 247 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 1: kinds of things. What would you say to people who 248 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 1: are worried about losing their jobs and paying their mortgage, 249 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 1: the practical everyday things that are coming down the road. Well, 250 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 1: you know this is going to be tough for people. 251 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,439 Speaker 1: This is where you need communities, and you need donations 252 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 1: and charitable efforts and things. We all have to take 253 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 1: care of each other right now and be compassionate towards people. 254 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:02,200 Speaker 1: People are going to face very tough times. But the 255 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 1: most important thing we can do to help people is 256 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 1: to rebuild the economy. We know what works. We know 257 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:14,360 Speaker 1: limited government, incentivizing businesses to work, cutting taxes or business 258 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 1: and invest more, deregulating the economy, get back to the 259 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:21,440 Speaker 1: things that work, and that's the most compassionate pro growth 260 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 1: policy out there. We don't want to just focus on 261 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 1: the next three or four weeks. I mean, obviously that's 262 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 1: a critical period of providing people the aid that they 263 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:32,119 Speaker 1: need to get through this, But how do we rebuild 264 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 1: the economy afterwards. Let's get in place policies that supercharge 265 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 1: this economy starting let's say May first. When the crisis 266 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 1: is over, you have a deep downturn. But then you 267 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 1: should remember how fast the economy grew in the Reagan years. 268 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: We had years of eight percent growth under Reagan because 269 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 1: we put in place the right policies. Very important that 270 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 1: Trump not allow this to be the moment where the 271 00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 1: establishment gets to unravel all the policies that have made 272 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 1: him so successful. This is a national emergency. These on 273 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 1: color old very often. I would do what Lincoln and 274 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 1: Roosevelt did. I would assert presidential power to do things. 275 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 1: Thank guys, right, listen, this has been very, very helpful. 276 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 1: I appreciate it very much. It's great to work with you. 277 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: Thank the rest. Speaker out doctor. So, I'm currently living 278 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 1: in Italy, where the coronavirus continues to spread and where 279 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 1: everything is closed except for the grocery stores and pharmacist. 280 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:37,600 Speaker 1: The impact of the European Union economy cannot be overstated. 281 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 1: I discussed the EU economic impact from coronavirus and neots 282 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 1: Inner Circle dot com. It's a subscription service where I 283 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 1: offer insights and commentary on the issues that matter to me. 284 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 1: Most joined today and newts Inner circle dot com Next, 285 00:15:54,680 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 1: what every American needs to understand about the expected economic downturn. Charles, 286 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 1: I really appreciate you're sharing with us because you cover 287 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 1: the economy for Fox Business News and do a great job. 288 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 1: I just so we'd have a chat about how you 289 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: see the coronavirus affecting both the US and the world 290 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 1: economy and what you think God to be done about it. 291 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 1: It's really so amazing that this is happening at this 292 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 1: particular moment, because, well, you have a two major forces 293 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 1: that have now collided. One was a resurging US economy. 294 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 1: Some of the things that held us back last year. 295 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 1: We're actually taking the lead this year. Obvious signs of 296 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 1: manufacturing returning big time, particularly since President Trump stilling to 297 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: Phase one trade deal. And then the housing market. There's 298 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 1: a housing resurgence, homeownership beginning to get back to levels 299 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:05,240 Speaker 1: not seen in many, many years. Refinancings through the Root 300 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:08,320 Speaker 1: just announced a four hundred and seventy nine percent increase 301 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 1: and refined in the most recent week from a year ago. 302 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 1: So we had that juggernaut of an economy that created 303 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:19,640 Speaker 1: seven hundred and thirty thousand jobs in ninety days versus 304 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 1: this dark hole of the unknown. What happens as we 305 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:26,280 Speaker 1: start to shut down its economy. What happens is people 306 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 1: have become afraid because the biggest lynchpin to all of 307 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 1: our success has been enormous consumer confidence. Even through all 308 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 1: of the things in the last two years, from impeachment 309 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 1: efforts to talk of recession to the killing of Solomony, 310 00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 1: whatever was headlines in the major media and where they 311 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 1: suggested that we were going to go off the rails, 312 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:50,359 Speaker 1: the American consumer never took that fate. Obviously, this is 313 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:52,480 Speaker 1: going to be different, and this is the hard part 314 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 1: to figure out to quantify at this particular point. But 315 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,200 Speaker 1: we've got those two forces that are going against each 316 00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:03,119 Speaker 1: other in the US. How concerned are you that the challenges, 317 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,879 Speaker 1: for example, to the airlines or the cruise ships, that 318 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,680 Speaker 1: it will kill us into a recession. This has been 319 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:12,880 Speaker 1: an amazingly strong economy. Seven hundred and thirty thousand new 320 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,919 Speaker 1: jobs in ninety days. Think about that at the end 321 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 1: of the so called business cycle. Beyond remarkable, beyond amazing, 322 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:24,280 Speaker 1: just an absolute juggernaut and good paying jobs where the 323 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:27,360 Speaker 1: lower half of the income ladder actually seeing the fastest 324 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 1: wage games. That's a big question. Listen, a lot of 325 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 1: people are saying recession. The noise is loud enough now 326 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 1: if you're working from home, if your kid is in 327 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 1: this school, obviously, if you're in a situation like that, 328 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,480 Speaker 1: then it's more than just reading headlines. You are actually 329 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 1: in a position where you are concerned and you start 330 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 1: to believe them in I think at this point recession 331 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 1: is all about being a self fulfilling prophecy in this country. 332 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,000 Speaker 1: I didn't think it had to happen. Parts of me 333 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:56,160 Speaker 1: still believes it doesn't have to happen. But if it does, 334 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:58,840 Speaker 1: it probably could be shallow. I mean, when things can 335 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,120 Speaker 1: change very quickly with all of this as we enter 336 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 1: the spring and summer months, and I think we're going 337 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 1: to have sort of a shock to the system as 338 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 1: a lot of things shut down as we see more 339 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:11,159 Speaker 1: many quarantines. But I think we can also see some 340 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:12,760 Speaker 1: of this the man picked up in the later half 341 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 1: of the year. When you look at the really steep 342 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:20,639 Speaker 1: market drops, they actually turn around with amazing speed and 343 00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,920 Speaker 1: they don't seem to affect the general economy. At least 344 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 1: three occasions now we've had a very substantial correction, sometimes 345 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:34,360 Speaker 1: going into bear market numbers below, But ninety days later, 346 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:37,040 Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty days later, people have gone back in, 347 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:40,159 Speaker 1: They found bargains, they put money back in, and they 348 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 1: don't seem to be a correlation between how the stock 349 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 1: market operates in the general economy. In those cases, the 350 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,639 Speaker 1: stock market overreacts. A lot of those studies have been 351 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 1: done in association with the Mirrors, Stars and some of 352 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:58,480 Speaker 1: the other virus worries that drove our economy down for 353 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:00,919 Speaker 1: a short period of time, and I think that's the 354 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:05,879 Speaker 1: same here. Now. You have to weigh the postponements versus cancelations. 355 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 1: For instance, Coachella, the concert that all the millennials go 356 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 1: to in California, was postponed. They'll have it in October. 357 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 1: By the same token, though, any plane that takes off 358 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,000 Speaker 1: today from Delta that has empty seats, you can never 359 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 1: go back and fill those seats. So there's a part 360 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 1: of this cancelation wave that's going on, the social distancing 361 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 1: and the mitigation efforts that will have a different kind 362 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 1: of an economic impact this time around that correlates with 363 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 1: the stock market. But I still believe the stock market 364 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: is pricing in a worst case scenario that I don't 365 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 1: think is going to happen. You're sort of moderately optimistic. Yes, 366 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 1: I am. So. Do you think the president should not 367 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:48,120 Speaker 1: go overboard in a stimulus package. I think he's got 368 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,679 Speaker 1: to go overboard. I came up as a traditional economic 369 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:55,200 Speaker 1: conservative thinker, but I know this is also an election here. 370 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,199 Speaker 1: I also know what the markets want. I also know 371 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 1: what people want. If there it does not go overboard. 372 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 1: Right now, that self fulfilling aspect that I talked about, 373 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 1: that equation gets a whole lot worse. The market goes 374 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 1: down a whole lot more, and it reverberates around this 375 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 1: country where people are going to be talking not recession, 376 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 1: but severe recession, and then you'll see articles about a 377 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 1: great depression. I am so concerned about the intangible aspects, 378 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 1: of the psychological aspects more so than the economic because 379 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,879 Speaker 1: I think that's going to drive the economic and the 380 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 1: President is going to have to deliver on something that's 381 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:32,160 Speaker 1: going to wrinkle a whole lot of Republicans, a whole 382 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 1: lot of fiscal conservatives. But it's the only way I 383 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 1: think that he'll be able to curb the psychological impact, 384 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 1: which ultimately curbs the economic impact. I think I agree 385 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,439 Speaker 1: with you in the sense that there's a wave of 386 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:50,359 Speaker 1: constant barrage of negativity that they would love to have 387 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,959 Speaker 1: a recession so that they could take away his greatest strength, 388 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,800 Speaker 1: which is being the job creator. They would go into 389 00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 1: the fall campaign, the New York Times and the Washington 390 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:03,160 Speaker 1: Post sense of happiness such as they've not had since 391 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:07,400 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. Well, on the other hand, the underlying fundamentals 392 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:11,480 Speaker 1: are so powerful that if the president is seeing psychologically 393 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,199 Speaker 1: reassuring people, it seems to me we could see this 394 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 1: whole thing bouncing back pretty rapidly. He's gonna have to 395 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,880 Speaker 1: come a little bit stronger and harder than even maybe 396 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 1: his own instincts are. But I will tell you he's 397 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,720 Speaker 1: got amazing instincts, and I don't think it's gonna be him. 398 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:28,120 Speaker 1: I think it's going to be some of these other 399 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:32,120 Speaker 1: Republicans who are going to say, well, that's not fiscally responsible, 400 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:34,840 Speaker 1: or even today some of the early things I'm hearing 401 00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 1: from a nu Chin don't call it a bailout, don't 402 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:42,240 Speaker 1: focus on that. Who cares. Let the media call it 403 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 1: what they want. You know, we're gonna do targeted. It's 404 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,239 Speaker 1: going to be small. It's no, no, that's not what 405 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 1: the world wants to hear right now. That is not 406 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 1: what's happening right now. Again, this is a brand new playbook. 407 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,800 Speaker 1: It is an election year, and if it looks like 408 00:22:56,840 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 1: the president is sort of fiddling while folks would out 409 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,879 Speaker 1: health insurance can't get tested for the coronavirus, he's not 410 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,639 Speaker 1: going to get reelected. It seems to me that this 411 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,640 Speaker 1: is sort of a one two punch. On the one hand, 412 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,200 Speaker 1: he's got to handle the public health side of this 413 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:16,040 Speaker 1: so that people got to be comfortable that the president 414 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,639 Speaker 1: led the effort, and then second they have to be 415 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:23,879 Speaker 1: creating jobs. He has a much bigger risk than any 416 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 1: normal president would have because his approval rating is so 417 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:31,320 Speaker 1: closely tied to the economy in the sense that whether 418 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,199 Speaker 1: you like or dislike his tweets, you sure like the 419 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 1: way he's been very smart about keeping this growth going. 420 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,360 Speaker 1: So I think you and I are probably an agreement. 421 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,639 Speaker 1: I think that's going to be Trump's position in the summer. 422 00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,119 Speaker 1: He's going to have something to keep us out of 423 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:49,679 Speaker 1: trouble so people can continue to get jobs and have 424 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,680 Speaker 1: better jobs and have higher pay. But the country then 425 00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 1: has to make the Congress actually deliver it absolutely if indeed, 426 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 1: it's like almost every virus, and it starts have trouble 427 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 1: living for long periods of time at sixty degree weather 428 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 1: or better. We start this mitigation effort, the social distancing 429 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:11,119 Speaker 1: starts to work, and those numbers start to turn lower. 430 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 1: We start having fewer cases limited deaths. At the same time, 431 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 1: we have this economic shop starts to fade and things 432 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:21,560 Speaker 1: which have been postponed are now out again, and people 433 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 1: start to spend some of this money they have. We 434 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:28,399 Speaker 1: could actually have a really strong, roaring rebound from the 435 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,879 Speaker 1: middle month lows right into the election. It could actually 436 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,879 Speaker 1: be perfectly time for President Trump. He could actually end 437 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 1: up roaring back in a way that Reagan did in 438 00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:41,560 Speaker 1: nineteen eighty four. People forget that Reagan was behind Mondale 439 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 1: in the fall of eighty three. Are there any particular 440 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 1: things you'd like to see in that kind of package. 441 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:53,400 Speaker 1: I think the payroll tax cut to zero is going 442 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,640 Speaker 1: to be important. I think he'll get some support there. 443 00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:00,040 Speaker 1: I think you must you absolutely have to find in 444 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,160 Speaker 1: a way to get some sort of hate, sickly of help. 445 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 1: In fact, I am predicting that that will become right 446 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,119 Speaker 1: now the number one topic during the presidential election, and 447 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:15,720 Speaker 1: you already have corporations, whether it's Darton, Olive Garten, Walmart McDonald's, 448 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 1: all of them are changing policies rapidly because I think 449 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 1: ultimately they don't want DC to change of form. See, 450 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 1: what you don't want is someone who doesn't have health 451 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 1: insurance saying I didn't go to the hospital because I 452 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 1: couldn't afford it even though I was showing signs in 453 00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:33,879 Speaker 1: the coronavirus. So we need something there. America loves small 454 00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 1: business only our military ranks higher and appreciation and overall 455 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 1: approval than our small businesses. We love them, We want 456 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,840 Speaker 1: them to succeed. We do not want them to suffer 457 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,119 Speaker 1: from this. Those are the three areas I think he 458 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 1: should focus on. Yeah, I think I would reassure the 459 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 1: productive people of this country that they're going to have 460 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:55,320 Speaker 1: a much better future and that we're going to get 461 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 1: through this. I think so you know, there's no pressure 462 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 1: about bailouts. I think the airline industry is sort of 463 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:04,440 Speaker 1: a no brainer, even though they came into this year 464 00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,280 Speaker 1: sitting on a fair amount of cash. The cruise industry, 465 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,439 Speaker 1: I would skip that, I would ignore in terms of 466 00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:13,119 Speaker 1: bailing them out. It's consumer discretionary. And the wild card 467 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:16,840 Speaker 1: will be energy. If you argue about energy independence and 468 00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:19,920 Speaker 1: also that it's a security issue that we don't want 469 00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 1: to send money back to the Middle East, the Funtarot networks, 470 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 1: there's going to be a good argument for that. I 471 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 1: would like to see the other things addressed first and foremost. 472 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 1: What worries you the most about where we are right now. 473 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,560 Speaker 1: It breaks my heart for our economy to be in 474 00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:40,199 Speaker 1: a place where it hasn't been in decades, to be 475 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:44,719 Speaker 1: derailed out of spitefulness toward one single person, the President 476 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 1: of the United States, the end of the world coverage 477 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 1: of this when in Italy, you know, the average person 478 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,760 Speaker 1: who's died, it's eighty one years old, underlying health issues. 479 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,360 Speaker 1: We don't diminish any death in this country. But by 480 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:03,439 Speaker 1: the same tone, almost every medical expert says, the working 481 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,360 Speaker 1: age population twenty four to fifty five in this country 482 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,720 Speaker 1: probably with survivors if they even got it. So it's 483 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 1: okay to act in an abundance of caution. But the 484 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: way it has been promoted news and the impact that 485 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,399 Speaker 1: it's having on a psyche of Americans who are feeling 486 00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:22,480 Speaker 1: better than they have felt in years I'd say shame, shame, shame. 487 00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:25,520 Speaker 1: I agree with that. I think that at least half 488 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 1: of the intensity of the current news coverage is because 489 00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:33,159 Speaker 1: it's an opportunity to try to set a standard for 490 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,000 Speaker 1: Trump that the news media hopes he will fail at 491 00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,560 Speaker 1: I'm watching CEO has gone these financial networks. We had 492 00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:41,920 Speaker 1: a guy in Goldman Sachs today saying that the bull 493 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,560 Speaker 1: market is going to be over there soon, and that's 494 00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:46,439 Speaker 1: the headline to end of the bull market. But he 495 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,680 Speaker 1: went on to say the economy is going to turn 496 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,800 Speaker 1: around so quickly, will actually end the year higher than 497 00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,720 Speaker 1: we are right now. And he has made the rounds 498 00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 1: and people are crushing him. How can you say it's 499 00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 1: going to turn around. It's really that intense. If you're 500 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,640 Speaker 1: talking just the average American out here berning a living, 501 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,640 Speaker 1: what should they be worried about in terms of where 502 00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,359 Speaker 1: the economy is. They should be worried that we talk 503 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,399 Speaker 1: ourselves into a situation that we don't have to be, 504 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,200 Speaker 1: and that we do not have to go into a recession, 505 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:17,560 Speaker 1: and that if there is some short term pain, that's 506 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,240 Speaker 1: exactly what it should be, a short term. So it's 507 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:23,600 Speaker 1: incommon upon everyone to understand that we're all part of 508 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:25,920 Speaker 1: this thread. And if you are the one who sort 509 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:27,880 Speaker 1: of panics a little bit, if you're the one who 510 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:30,679 Speaker 1: decides you don't want to go to the mall this 511 00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,240 Speaker 1: weekend or even buy what you were going to buy 512 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,000 Speaker 1: on Amazon that you wanted to start to hoard embrace 513 00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 1: for the worst case scenario, then guess what You're going 514 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,040 Speaker 1: to make it more likely that it happens, and we 515 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 1: all play a role in that. So that's my greatest fear. 516 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,120 Speaker 1: On the medical side, I want people to think smarter. 517 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,440 Speaker 1: You know. The idea that we don't have mask out 518 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,280 Speaker 1: there for people who really need them breaks my heart. 519 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 1: My wife needs mask. She's a hard transplant patient and 520 00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:57,760 Speaker 1: there are a lot of people like her out there. 521 00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 1: The overall panic has health ramifications and economic ramifications, and 522 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,440 Speaker 1: each individual can control that. Do you think that the 523 00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 1: transition to more telework, working from home, tele community it 524 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,040 Speaker 1: sort of will that be a piece of how this 525 00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:14,680 Speaker 1: all gets solved. Absolutely, no doubt about it. And that's 526 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 1: something that no one's really crunched the numbers on. Going 527 00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:22,600 Speaker 1: back to any other epidemic or potential pandemic, is everyone's 528 00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:26,479 Speaker 1: got the ability to log on from their house and 529 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 1: log on to work. And that's the really interesting thing 530 00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,480 Speaker 1: is that people are still going to be working. Most 531 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,320 Speaker 1: people are going to still be working. Productivity may not 532 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:37,440 Speaker 1: be the same because there'll be the urge to get 533 00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 1: up and make a sandwich when you otherwise might not 534 00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:41,400 Speaker 1: have in the office. You know what else is interesting 535 00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,960 Speaker 1: about this new This is the world we've been promised, 536 00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 1: you know, the world of the future where work life 537 00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:49,600 Speaker 1: balance plays an important role and people are going to 538 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,440 Speaker 1: be encouraged to work from home, take more days off, 539 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,920 Speaker 1: not drive in, not use their cars. When this whole 540 00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:58,160 Speaker 1: thing is over, we might want to start to rethink 541 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:01,120 Speaker 1: just how much of economic damage will there be if 542 00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,360 Speaker 1: you want to take half the cars off the road, 543 00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:05,760 Speaker 1: if you want to just work from home. Because in 544 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,480 Speaker 1: all those people who work in your building and make 545 00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:10,480 Speaker 1: your lunch, you make that sandwich for you instead of 546 00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,600 Speaker 1: you making it, they're not going to have a job. 547 00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,040 Speaker 1: Their kids aren't going to have a future. So it's 548 00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:18,160 Speaker 1: utopian world where we all live in big cities and 549 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 1: we all work from our apartments and none of us drive. 550 00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:24,080 Speaker 1: As some economic consequences and we're feeling some of it 551 00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,000 Speaker 1: right now. Listen, it's been very helpful, and I really 552 00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:30,240 Speaker 1: appreciate you're taking this kind of time. Thank you very much. 553 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,320 Speaker 1: News I've always amargue, and I thank you very much. 554 00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 1: The striking thing about where we are right now as 555 00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 1: Americans is that we have gone to full stop, which 556 00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:47,800 Speaker 1: was the right thing to do. This is a shock effect. 557 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,520 Speaker 1: It'll work for two or three weeks, it won't work 558 00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 1: for two or three months. We are going to have 559 00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:59,360 Speaker 1: to think through how we restart the economy, how we 560 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:05,200 Speaker 1: gradually reopen, and frankly, I'm very disappointed that more has 561 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:12,040 Speaker 1: not been made of the tremendous success in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, 562 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:16,320 Speaker 1: Hong Kong, and Singapore, who have managed to deal with 563 00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:20,040 Speaker 1: this much more effectively than any of the Western countries, 564 00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 1: and who I think can teach us a lot about 565 00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,160 Speaker 1: how to get through this with a lot less damage 566 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,360 Speaker 1: to our economy. So we're in a phase right now 567 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:31,280 Speaker 1: where we have no choice except to close down and 568 00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:35,000 Speaker 1: hope that distancing people from each other will starve the 569 00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:38,600 Speaker 1: virus and begin to break up as momentum. But a 570 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,760 Speaker 1: few weeks from now we need to have thought through 571 00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 1: how we restart the economy, how we begin to reintegrate people. 572 00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:49,960 Speaker 1: That may mean, for example, the people get checks for 573 00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:53,560 Speaker 1: their temperature every time they go somewhere. Though we constantly 574 00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,920 Speaker 1: identify who has a challenge and who hasn't. But we're 575 00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:59,080 Speaker 1: not going to be able to keep three hundred and 576 00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:02,600 Speaker 1: thirty million people doing nothing for more than a couple 577 00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 1: of weeks. So we badly need some people starting to 578 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:11,320 Speaker 1: plan the restart of the American economy, and the conversations 579 00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,320 Speaker 1: we had today I thought were a very good starting 580 00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:18,760 Speaker 1: point for beginning to think about the economic future of America. 581 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,280 Speaker 1: How we get back to being a country of growth, 582 00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:30,520 Speaker 1: of prosperity, and of a stronger, bigger economy. You can 583 00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:34,680 Speaker 1: read more about coronavirus's impact on the US economy on 584 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:39,000 Speaker 1: our show page at newtsworld dot com. Newtsworld is produced 585 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:43,520 Speaker 1: by Gingwish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is 586 00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:47,719 Speaker 1: Debbie Myers and our producer is Garnsey Slump. The artwork 587 00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:51,360 Speaker 1: for the show was created by Steve Peneley. Special thanks 588 00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:54,360 Speaker 1: to the team at Gingwish three sixty. Please email me 589 00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:58,680 Speaker 1: with your comments attat newtsworld dot com. If you've been 590 00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:02,280 Speaker 1: enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and 591 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,120 Speaker 1: both rate us with five stars and give us a 592 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:10,520 Speaker 1: review so others can learn what it's all about. On 593 00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,480 Speaker 1: the next episode of news World, Mayberian Garrett, characters you 594 00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:18,440 Speaker 1: met in my national bestseller Collusion are back in my 595 00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,760 Speaker 1: new book Shakedown. I'll be joined by my co author 596 00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,520 Speaker 1: Pete Early, and we'll talk about the book and what 597 00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:28,520 Speaker 1: real life situations we've based it on. I'm new English. 598 00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:30,040 Speaker 1: This is neats World.