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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds. And Jack Smith has asked a judge

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Speaker 1: to reinstate a gag order on Trump or punish him

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Speaker 1: with jail time.

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Speaker 2: We have such an interesting show today.

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Speaker 1: Political scientists and og nor Morenstein joins us to talk

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Speaker 1: about the growing radicalization of the House GOP with the

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Speaker 1: elevation of Mega Mike Johnson to Speaker of the House.

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Speaker 1: Then we'll talk to Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer about

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Speaker 1: the world on fire. But first we have the host

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Speaker 1: of the Origin Story podcast, the one British person we

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Speaker 1: have on here, Ian dunt Welcome back to Fast Politics.

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Speaker 2: Ian wor third you very much.

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Speaker 3: Thanks.

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Speaker 2: I'm we're like best friends now, so.

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Speaker 4: I agady to take that's pushing Its really the quinstances.

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Speaker 5: Fuck you.

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Speaker 6: So anyway, well, I'm not going to be quite as

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Speaker 6: nicy and as I was before. Let me tell you

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Speaker 6: so let's talk about your very fucked up country again.

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Speaker 6: I do want to say at least you don't have

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Speaker 6: There was a number of congress who tweeted at a picture.

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Speaker 2: It was from January.

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Speaker 1: I guess which I guess makes that better or less

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Speaker 1: fake Newsy or whatever.

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Speaker 2: A picture of January of the Speaker of the House praying.

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Speaker 1: On the floor on his knees on the floor of

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Speaker 1: Congress with a bunch of other lunatics. So I don't know,

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Speaker 1: we may have eclipsed you again as Worst Country discuss.

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Speaker 4: All you've done is been foolish enough to allow them

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Speaker 4: to take photaes and film this stuff, because they do

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Speaker 4: this every single day. You know, they start every single

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Speaker 4: session in the Commons with a prayer, which, for some

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Speaker 4: inexplicable reason, they would turn around and face the wall

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Speaker 4: and pray to God before they start legislation, which actually,

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Speaker 4: given the way the British legislation is actually probably not

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Speaker 4: a particularly foolish way of looking at it. But for

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Speaker 4: that period they cut the cameras so you can't actually

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Speaker 4: watch them engage in this completely deranged spectacle. So really

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Speaker 4: the only improvement is that we just made sure and

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Speaker 4: no one gets.

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Speaker 3: To see us like that. Munity.

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Speaker 1: When you were last on this podcast, which was either

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Speaker 1: yesterday or four months ago, you said to me that

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Speaker 1: Richie Sudact was I don't want to say you were

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Speaker 1: positive because that is a misnomer. But you were not

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Speaker 1: as negative as I've heard you.

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Speaker 4: No, because he remains better than any recent prime minister

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Speaker 4: or for the last sort of let's say.

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Speaker 2: Seven maybe you're talking about Liz. Let us talk of Liz.

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Speaker 3: I'm talking about Liz Trusts.

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Speaker 4: It was easily like the most catastrophic prime minister that

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Speaker 4: this country has ever had. Really, I mean, you don't

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Speaker 4: usually have prime ministers that last for forty seven days

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Speaker 4: and result in, you know, the death of the queen

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Speaker 4: and the complete collapse of the British economy.

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Speaker 1: I want to fact check here, Liz lightest task did

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Speaker 1: not kill the queen. Please add that to the rack

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Speaker 1: the Queen the Queen Yes. Continue. However, can it really.

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Speaker 4: Be a complete coincidence that, in the short period of

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Speaker 4: time that this monstrously inect figure was in charge.

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Speaker 3: The queen just thought about it.

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Speaker 4: I'm done, after nearly a century undone with this.

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Speaker 2: Can't now now it's true?

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Speaker 1: Let the fact check reflect that we do actually think

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Speaker 1: that Liz did murder the Queen.

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Speaker 4: Continue to excellent edge. I don't think I can get

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Speaker 4: done for Libel as long as I'm saying this in

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Speaker 4: the US.

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Speaker 3: So that should be fine.

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Speaker 2: Now we are very loose over here, so should be fine.

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Speaker 4: And then you know there was Boris Johnson, whose ego

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Speaker 4: was passed only by his complete indifference towards the truth

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Speaker 4: or any kind of basic moral standard. Theresa May, you know,

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Speaker 4: one of the most blisteringly reactionary, anti immigrant, authoritarian prom

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Speaker 4: minises as countries ever had. And before that you've got

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Speaker 4: David Cameron, who was like a human void in an

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Speaker 4: expensive way. So you know, when these are the comparisons,

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Speaker 4: he's probably better than all of them. However, that does

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Speaker 4: not make him good. He is just appallingly bad at government.

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Speaker 4: And you look at him and you think, in any

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Speaker 4: sensible country, this guy would have been a kind of

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Speaker 4: anonymous junior minister, like lost in the bows of the

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Speaker 4: treasury somewhere, and no one would have had to know

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Speaker 4: what his actual name was. Because this country doesn't work

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Speaker 4: at all. He somehow has found himself right at the

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Speaker 4: peak of the political system, and he's starting to do

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Speaker 4: proper damage, like really quite venal, right wing, mean spirited,

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Speaker 4: self interested political damage. And it's a real spectacle to

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Speaker 4: think of that, just the extent of the damage and

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Speaker 4: the tininess of the mind and of the political vision,

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Speaker 4: which is.

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Speaker 2: Creat Yeah, so let's talk about that.

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Speaker 1: We have a complicated political crisis going on right now,

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Speaker 1: which is mushrooming into more and more. But he did,

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Speaker 1: Richie Sidak, did go to Israel in that chain of

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Speaker 1: leaders to go there to try to prevent what hopefully

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Speaker 1: will not happen.

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Speaker 2: So that was something you're very.

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Speaker 4: Generous, I think, to think that he's trying to prevent something,

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Speaker 4: I think he's it's more a.

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Speaker 3: Kind of look at me, conka.

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Speaker 4: So explain, well, I think realistically, certainly, when I've been

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Speaker 4: in Israel, the impression that I got was that there's

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Speaker 4: no country that had influence over Israel apart from the US,

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Speaker 4: and even then necessarily all the time, but certainly any

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Speaker 4: other country that decides to go over there, I mean,

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Speaker 4: you don't really realistically think you're going to result in

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Speaker 4: the change, of course, not necessarily should you.

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Speaker 3: So really, when other.

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Speaker 4: Leaders go over there, they're really doing it for the

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Speaker 4: domestic audience at home, so that they look like they're

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Speaker 4: a you know, great striding international leader. Except the thing

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Speaker 4: is that when is Rashi's Sunak, he looks like a

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Speaker 4: head boy.

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Speaker 3: A prefect at a school.

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Speaker 4: Has been given like a special prize to go hang

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Speaker 4: out with world lead. He just looks completely embarrassingly like backbreaking,

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Speaker 4: cringingly out of his debt. And of course, I mean

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Speaker 4: he has no proper evaluation of any of the issues

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Speaker 4: that he's discussing. So I don't think he really went

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Speaker 4: out there to achieve anything. I think he just went

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Speaker 4: out there to look like he's a proper world leader,

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Speaker 4: which he is.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about what is happening sort of the larger issues.

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Speaker 1: You have an economy that continues to struggle with its

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Speaker 1: own self sanctioning.

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Speaker 2: Yes, right, I mean, inflation is everywhere.

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Speaker 1: It's problematic in the States, but you guys really have

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Speaker 1: it bad.

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Speaker 4: We have it bad in almost every economic way there

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Speaker 4: is to have it bad. And it's not even resulting

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Speaker 4: in a recession. It's worse than that. It's just like

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Speaker 4: over ten years of just complete stagnation, like there's just

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Speaker 4: no growth, there's no and most damagingly, there's no productivity

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Speaker 4: in the economy, and the people.

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Speaker 3: Can't really get to the heart of the puzzle.

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Speaker 4: But we do have an impression of why this stuff happens,

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Speaker 4: and it happens because we make a series of short

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Speaker 4: term interested political decisions that completely undermined the investment environment

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Speaker 4: and the kind of skills that you need to build

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Speaker 4: in a country and the kind of regional economic performance

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Speaker 4: you would want in a country. So one of those

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Speaker 4: examples just obviously Brexit. You know where you spend years

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Speaker 4: of one year it's gibbering away like a lunatic and

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Speaker 4: an assign about you're taking back control and you know

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Speaker 4: the great British destiny in the Land of Unicorns, And

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Speaker 4: in fact all you're reading matual accomplished is putting up

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Speaker 4: trade barriers with your largest trading partner. So then once

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Speaker 4: the dreams all vade away, you just look at it

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Speaker 4: and they so the some total of order that is

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Speaker 4: we're just pouring and that's the summer complishing. But then secondarily,

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Speaker 4: look at what we've just done with trains. Right, this

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Speaker 4: seems like a small example, get really indicative of the

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Speaker 4: way we're governed. Yeah, so there's a by election, an

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Speaker 4: election in just one local area, one constituency where there

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Speaker 4: was a local debate about charges for environmentally inefficient cards

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Speaker 4: and the Tories, the Conservatives, managed to scrape a win.

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Speaker 4: It's like the first when they've had an ages. It's

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Speaker 4: basically because of about five hundred voters on a local

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Speaker 4: issue that quickly passed away. But on the basis of

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Speaker 4: that that one solitary wing rischie Sona decided he was

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Speaker 4: going to tear up our entire environmental policy. Now Britain

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Speaker 4: is not either US. There is no culture war on

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Speaker 4: the environment. There is no political division rate on the environment.

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Speaker 4: Right and left, Conservatives and labor are both signed up

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Speaker 4: to the same plans at both internationally and national on

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Speaker 4: climate change. There's belief in manual climate change.

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Speaker 2: So you don't have Fox News, that's what you're saying.

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Speaker 4: Well, remember we have GB News, which is this desperate attempt.

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Speaker 4: It's an absolute hit show of.

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Speaker 3: The high instrum.

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Speaker 2: Can I tell you about how I was on TV

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Speaker 2: news recently.

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Speaker 4: Oh, I remember you went on GV.

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Speaker 3: It was a gutting moment.

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Speaker 4: No.

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Speaker 1: I went back on and I said, you've sanctioned yourself.

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Speaker 1: Your inflation is at deatata percent and America's is a

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Speaker 1: third or fourth and it's because of all of your

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Speaker 1: terrible financial policies.

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Speaker 2: And he was like, we have to go now.

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Speaker 3: I bet they did.

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Speaker 4: So we've actually managed to build consensus on that and

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Speaker 4: just because of that by election, because of five hundred voters,

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Speaker 4: as Richie Sunat just decides to detonate it, to kill

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Speaker 4: the consensus, and basically comes out as this big kind

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Speaker 4: of like anti environmentalist, anti climate change action, anti net

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Speaker 4: zero figure. He starts inventing these extraordinary, sort of just

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Speaker 4: imaginary policies. He does a speech in Downing Street. It's

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Speaker 4: the Prime Minister of the country saying there is a

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Speaker 4: war on meat and I'm going to stop it from happening.

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Speaker 4: So originally, just what on earth have you gone completely mad?

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Speaker 4: And like, what is the war on meat? What are

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Speaker 4: the policies that are constitute a war on meat? Which

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Speaker 4: he is unable to make. He starts saying local councils

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Speaker 4: are forcing people to have seven rubbish bids, would you

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Speaker 4: guys call them trash cans?

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Speaker 3: Whatever?

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Speaker 4: Completely made up? I mean, none of it exists in

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Speaker 4: the actual world. You start saying that local councils are

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Speaker 4: trying to ban people from leaving their homes in order

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Speaker 4: to create fifteen minute cities. It's basically as if he

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Speaker 4: had gone that. And as part of this, he cancels

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Speaker 4: HS two High Speed two. Now this is the big

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Speaker 4: rail project, again consensus on with both parties.

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Speaker 3: It's been being.

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Speaker 4: Built for about thirteen years. He cancels the project as

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Speaker 4: part of his I'm going to defend motorists and pull

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Speaker 4: us back from this green lunacy, starts selling off the

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Speaker 4: land that was bought, start sabotaging thirteen years of work,

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Speaker 4: actively undermining it, including by trying to make sure that

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Speaker 4: no future government can undo the decision that he is making.

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Speaker 4: Him as an unelected prime minister, he didn't even win

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Speaker 4: the election within the Conservative Party to become leader, and

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Speaker 4: with zero mandate, he decides, I'm going to cancel the

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Speaker 4: project now that obviously is environmentally catastrophic and morally and

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Speaker 4: democratically deeply unsound. But what it also is indicative of

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Speaker 4: why our economy struggles, because you have businesses investing, and

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Speaker 4: they invest on the basis of stability and some kind

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Speaker 4: of good judgment about the economics, and then one moment,

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Speaker 4: after five hundred voters in one by election, we decide, no,

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Speaker 4: you know what, We're going to trash it. And all

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Speaker 4: that money you invested, all the plans you made, whether

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Speaker 4: it's been to set up in HQ in a particular era,

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Speaker 4: on the basis of the connectivity that you were entitled

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Speaker 4: to expect, on the basis of what government told you

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Speaker 4: we're going to get rid of all of that. And

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Speaker 4: in that kind of thinking, I think you get an

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Speaker 4: idea of why our economy as well as our political

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Speaker 4: system is so comitate.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that doesn't sound good. I mean it isn't.

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Speaker 3: No, it isn't.

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Speaker 1: It isn't.

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Speaker 4: It's national decay, kind of moral and intellectual torpa.

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Speaker 3: Those those are the headlines.

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Speaker 1: Of you guys have any kind of way to push

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Speaker 1: back on this.

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Speaker 2: Well, there's the election, right, Yeah, let's talk about the election,

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Speaker 2: and it's coming up.

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Speaker 3: It's coming up.

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Speaker 4: He can decide when to hold it, but he has

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Speaker 4: to hold it by late January twenty twenty five. If

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Speaker 4: he was sensible, he would do it in May, because

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Speaker 4: it's good, whether it's easier to get your volunteers out,

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Speaker 4: and because he's basically destroyed the National Health Service, so

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Speaker 4: you don't really want to run an election in the

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Speaker 4: middle of winter when you're seeing lots of old people

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Speaker 4: waiting in always not being seen on journeys, dying away

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Speaker 4: because of a lack of the investments.

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Speaker 1: I'm laughing to keep from crying. I want to point

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Speaker 1: that out.

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Speaker 3: Yes I do.

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Speaker 4: I do an awful lot of that as well. Also drinking.

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Speaker 4: That's drinking, I find order it was quite a.

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Speaker 1: Bit as someone who's been cell person she was nineteen.

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Speaker 1: No drinking, but laugh.

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Speaker 4: And then how you get through politics without it?

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Speaker 3: It just seems inconceivable to me.

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Speaker 4: So he should really try and avoid any kind of

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Speaker 4: election in the winter time, But he's just cowardly to

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Speaker 4: hold it in spring the summer, because the truth is

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Speaker 4: he can by himself a bit more time. And right

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Speaker 4: now he is consistently twenty points behind in the polls,

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Speaker 4: like that man is heading for extinction and the Conservative

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Speaker 4: Party is heading for a water being on a scale

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Speaker 4: that we really haven't seen in this country for about

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Speaker 4: thirty years. That are kind of like generational event. People

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Speaker 4: are utterly fed up. So he's light need to hold

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Speaker 4: the election as late as he can, could be in

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Speaker 4: the autumn of next year, or really in the winter,

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Speaker 4: or really, if he's speaking particularly cowardly, he might just

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Speaker 4: go ahead and hold it in January. I just ruin

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Speaker 4: everyone's Christmas as one final act of constitutional and cultural

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Speaker 4: vandalism before the Conservatives trist from all.

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Speaker 2: But it does seem to me.

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Speaker 1: And you tell me if I'm right, because I'm looking

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Speaker 1: at this from quite far away that here Stormer has

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Speaker 1: I'm mispronouncing it.

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Speaker 3: You're making him.

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Speaker 4: Sound so much more exciting than heure Stormtrooper.

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Speaker 2: For so long I've heard people say that labor is just.

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Speaker 1: And again, John Decaucus, if you're listening to this, I

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Speaker 1: don't mean any offense towards your father, but that you

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Speaker 1: were sort of run by a mic decaucasy kind of

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Speaker 1: crew that nobody could ever kind of get the bazeal.

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Speaker 1: I feel like there's been sort of an evolution a

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Speaker 1: little bit.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 4: This isn't happening because Keir Starmer is a particularly inspiring

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Speaker 4: or charismatic figure.

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Speaker 1: Right, Why would just because he's the head of a

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Speaker 1: political party. I mean, you should never put one of

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Speaker 1: those people as ahead of your party.

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Speaker 2: Yes, go on.

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Speaker 4: It's like in the Victorian period, Thomas Carlyle was talking

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Speaker 4: about the husband of Harriet Taylor, who ended up marrying

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Speaker 4: the philosopher John Stuart Mill, and he was trying to

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Speaker 4: sort of justify where they might not want to hurt

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Speaker 4: the man's feelings, and they said he's an innocent dull

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Speaker 4: good man. And that's the kind of what Kiir Star.

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Speaker 4: It's he's just an innocent, dull good man, like he

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Speaker 4: has genuine decency to it.

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Speaker 3: He is competent, he.

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Speaker 4: Wants good things for the country, he wants the country

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Speaker 4: to work. He comes basically from the civil service.

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Speaker 3: He's a form of prosecutor.

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Speaker 4: You know, he's going to be one of those kind

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Speaker 4: of slightly technocratic kind of guys thinking right, what are

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Speaker 4: the kind of benchmark tests we'd want to assess for

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Speaker 4: the health of the health service?

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Speaker 3: What kind of steps would.

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Speaker 4: We need to get there, what's the evidence based for it,

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Speaker 4: what are the kind of competent, unremarkable, unflashy people and

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Speaker 4: need to put in place to implement it. And you know,

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Speaker 4: normally speaking, people would not really be into that. They

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Speaker 4: usually want them more kind of Tony Blair, Boris Johnson

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Speaker 4: or look at you look at the charisma or on

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Speaker 4: this one. Actually, after the just the utter ramshackle chaos

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Speaker 4: over the last few years and the commensurate decrease in

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Speaker 4: Britain's standing.

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Speaker 3: In the world and it's.

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Speaker 4: Material circumstances in people's day to day quality of life,

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Speaker 4: people are really in the position where they just want

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Speaker 4: someone who just seems basically like they're decent and quite competent.

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Speaker 3: And Keir Starmer is both of those things.

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Speaker 2: Could Labor actually win an election now?

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Speaker 5: Right?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah?

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Speaker 4: No, they're going to win, yeah yeah, And the chances

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Speaker 4: are they're going to win really really big.

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Speaker 2: How is that possible?

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Speaker 3: I suppose.

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Speaker 4: The thing that's really happened is it's sort of the

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Speaker 4: double rammy of Boris Johnson and Partygate, that moment where

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Speaker 4: he had those big parties in Downing Street while telling

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Speaker 4: everyone that they had to stay at home for COVID.

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Speaker 4: As political scandals go, the thing that was really striking

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Speaker 4: about that scandal was that the people who were most

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Speaker 4: upset about it were the children. You know, your friend's children,

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Speaker 4: if they would be like four years old, five years old.

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Speaker 4: They understood the new story. You know, there was no

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Speaker 4: complexity to it at all. It was as if someone

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Speaker 4: had written a story and more powerable for children. You know, shit,

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Speaker 4: the man who tells you to stay at home not

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Speaker 4: be staying at home and party.

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Speaker 3: The answer to that is known.

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Speaker 4: So it was this huge Primary Colors kind of political scandal,

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Speaker 4: and from that moment the Tories never recovered. But of

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Speaker 4: course they followed that moment with Liz Trust with just

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Speaker 4: this kind of spectacle of inadequacy and chaos. So on

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Speaker 4: the basis of that, their polling just bottomed out and

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Speaker 4: it never came back. So, I mean, sure, Keirstearmer had

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Speaker 4: to detoxify the Labor Party. He had to get rid

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Speaker 4: of the anti semitism that was there under Jeremy Corbyn.

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Speaker 4: He's had to cover himself in the National flag to

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Speaker 4: get rid of the fact, you know, that image that

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Speaker 4: Jeremy Corbyn had of like I want to run the country,

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Speaker 4: I don't actually really like it, and you all seem

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Speaker 4: like kind of you know, ignorant reactionaries, right, So he's

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Speaker 4: had to do all the b'sic you know, not and

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Speaker 4: bolts two plus two equals for political activity to show

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Speaker 4: that you're fit to govern, including demonstrating economic competence.

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Speaker 3: But apart from that, he has.

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Speaker 4: Mostly cleaned up on the bat that people have looked

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Speaker 4: at the Conservatives and particularly those two crucial moments and

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Speaker 4: just thought, you know what, mate, fuck that, We'll try

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Speaker 4: something else, thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: So that's what is looking like over there is just

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Speaker 1: there'll be a radical shift.

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Speaker 2: Will it be a radical shift.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you have a coalition government, so it's not

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Speaker 1: quite the same as it is in the States, right.

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Speaker 4: No, it probably won't be coalition. I mean, we've had

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Speaker 4: coalitions before, but it's quite rare. We have the same

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Speaker 4: electoral system as you the first pass of both systems,

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Speaker 4: so generally speaking, you're getting one party in charge. I mean,

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Speaker 4: look the way the things are right now, you would

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Speaker 4: be looking at a very very large majority for the

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Speaker 4: Labor Party unless the polling changes significantly. And by very large,

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Speaker 4: I mean I'm kind of talking an existential crisis for

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Speaker 4: the Conservative Party. I mean that holding is it's on

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Speaker 4: the floor. The really interesting.

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Speaker 3: Thing now is what I suppose. It's two fold.

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Speaker 4: The first is, you know what's Labor doing power and

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Speaker 4: Labour's economic program is quite heavily based on Biden's program.

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Speaker 4: There's there's some examples that they're taking from the European mainland,

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Speaker 4: from Germany, from Sweden, but primarily they're inspired by what

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Speaker 4: Biden's doing, So it's surprisingly left wi. You know, this

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Speaker 4: is not like the Tony Blair, Bill Clinton era. This

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Speaker 4: is a much more left wing program. It's much more

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Speaker 4: Painsian program in envisagors using a fiscal stimulus and form

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Speaker 4: of public works to try and stimulate the economy, in

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Speaker 4: this case by creating a million new jobs and decombondizing

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Speaker 4: the energy grid and trying to bring back some of

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Speaker 4: that climate change action that we've seen get lost on

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Speaker 4: the Sunak. The flip side of that is what happens

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Speaker 4: to the Conservatives out of office is usually political parties

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Speaker 4: use power and then they go insane. But the Conservative

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Speaker 4: Party has gone insane while inpowt and so the only

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Speaker 4: way for it to go is even further into the

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Speaker 4: sort of conspiracy theory, right, and you see that happening now,

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Speaker 4: like just the babbling gibberish that they are coming up

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Speaker 4: with about, you know, conspiracies against conservative thoughts.

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Speaker 3: I mean Nadine.

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Speaker 4: Dorin's the former media sectually, she was the actual genuine

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Speaker 4: secutary of State and media has just written a book

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Speaker 4: on a shadowy conspiracy to unsee several prime ministers and

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Speaker 4: which she says she went to a meeting with Google

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Speaker 4: where she was told that there is a big dial

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Speaker 4: that is dialed down to make sure that her own

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Speaker 4: news stories about her are less prominent than they would

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Speaker 4: otherwise be because she's a conservative, and you just think like,

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Speaker 4: this isn't even a complicated it's sort of it's the

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Speaker 4: kind of thing that makes QAnon look like a PhD.

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Speaker 4: It's just this unbelievably childlike conspiracy theory Babbel. And they

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Speaker 4: are firmly, firmly entrenched that, and we can expect to

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Speaker 4: the Conservatives become more extreme in that respect when they

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Speaker 4: leave Pown.

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Speaker 1: It's funny because that's what our House of Representatives is

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Speaker 1: up to.

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Speaker 5: Ian.

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Speaker 2: I appreciate you so much.

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Speaker 1: I wish you lived in a country that was more

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Speaker 1: relevant to our discussion. Well, oh, I had to get

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Speaker 1: it in there, but please tell, please, always keep us

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Speaker 1: a breath.

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Speaker 2: Of the backwater.

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Speaker 4: It's the unbelievable and increasingly inevitable sting in the tile

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Speaker 4: of a conversation.

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Speaker 1: Begin Norm Jay Ornstein is a political scientist and author

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Speaker 1: of It's Even Worse than it looks How the American

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Speaker 1: constitutional system collided with the new politics of extremism.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to fast politics, Norm.

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Speaker 5: It is so good to be with you, Molly, and

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Speaker 5: this horribly crazy time in America.

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Speaker 3: And the world.

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Speaker 2: This is not your first rodeo? Is that fair?

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Speaker 5: I think it's fair to say it's not my first

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Speaker 5: or by second, enter my third.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, Producer Jesse and I were talking about you

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Speaker 1: and we were like, he seems like angry Norm Ornstein.

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Speaker 1: I think of you as like a serious guy, but

445
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,760
Speaker 1: I feel like you're a little more irritated than usual.

446
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:09,359
Speaker 2: Will you talk to us about that?

447
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 4: Sure?

448
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 5: I can try and psychoanalyze myself, yes, please. A part

449
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,639
Speaker 5: of it, Molly, is that a large portion of my

450
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 5: career has been spent trying to build up, improve and

451
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 5: make function our institutions of government, and recognizing that a

452
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 5: lot of this stuff doesn't happen quickly even when lots

453
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:34,159
Speaker 5: of people agree that we're doing the right thing. Just

454
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:37,879
Speaker 5: as one example, I started to push for an independent

455
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:42,440
Speaker 5: ethics operation in Congress more than thirty years ago, actually

456
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 5: even longer than that. It met a lot of resistance,

457
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:49,359
Speaker 5: kept pushing, and eventually, at least in the House, got

458
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 5: the Office of Congressional Ethics. It is imperfect, but the

459
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 5: fact is it exists. Yeah, it exists. And no institution,

460
00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:02,399
Speaker 5: whether it is in government or or medicine or the law,

461
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:07,360
Speaker 5: as we've seen with the inability to sanction criminals who

462
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:11,719
Speaker 5: happen to be lawyers, as we've seen with cosmetology, people

463
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 5: just can't easily police their own. But we finally got

464
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 5: something done, and I felt good about that, and I

465
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 5: felt good about other things to improve institutions. When you

466
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 5: see them falling apart, and when you see the norms

467
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 5: that are supposed to keep the institutions and the system

468
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 5: together failing, when you see two political parties that I

469
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:41,640
Speaker 5: used to work with, both of them pretty intently and intensely,

470
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:47,919
Speaker 5: turn into one traditional political party and one radical fundamentalist cult,

471
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 5: it makes me frustrated and angry, and so I you know,

472
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 5: some of it is I need a catharsis when things

473
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 5: that should be going differently are not.

474
00:22:59,040 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 2: Yeah.

475
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 1: One of the things that I've been really struck by

476
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,719
Speaker 1: with these Republicans is, for example, they seem to have

477
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 1: taken a sharp turn against ethics of any kind. An

478
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,360
Speaker 1: example that I would like to bring up is Senator

479
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:17,159
Speaker 1: Bob Menendez, a Democrat who they refuse to condemn because

480
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 1: if they get on that wagon, they'll lose too many people.

481
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 5: Well, we know that's true with Menendez, although I have

482
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 5: to also say that I find Chuck Schumer's unwillingness to

483
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 5: call for Menendez to resign a little frustrating as well,

484
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 5: but most Democrats in the Senate and many others have

485
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,400
Speaker 5: taken off after Menendez. Let's use another example here, though,

486
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 5: that we find day after day after day, and that Ms.

487
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 5: Clarence Thomas, who got a quote unquote loan from a

488
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 5: wealthy friend of something like two hundred and seventy plus

489
00:23:55,840 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 5: thousand dollars to buy his fancy RV that he's bragged about,

490
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 5: and of course in the hagiographic documentary about how wonderful

491
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 5: he is, he was there with the RV talking about

492
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 5: how he's more comfortable in the parking lot of a

493
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 5: Walmart with real people. And of course we know that

494
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 5: he's far more comfortable on private jets, eating caviare and

495
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 5: drinking thousand dollars bottles of wine. But he got this

496
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 5: load never repaid. We know that Clarence Thomas got one

497
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 5: hundred and fifty thousand dollars from Harlan Crow to pay

498
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 5: for the schooling for his nephew, whom he has treated

499
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 5: like a son. We also know that Clarence Thomas got

500
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 5: a five thousand dollars contribution for that purpose from somebody else.

501
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 5: He declared the five thousand dollars and never declared the

502
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 5: one hundred and fifty grand, which makes it clear he

503
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 5: knew that it was wrong, in a violation very likely

504
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 5: of the law, but certainly of any ethical standard. And

505
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 5: every day Ted Cruz, joined by many many others, praises

506
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 5: Clarence Thomas as one of the greatest people on earth,

507
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 5: not a word of criticism. The same with Sam Alito,

508
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 5: who maybe even more corrupt than Clarence Thomas. So what

509
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,679
Speaker 5: we've seen is a party that's become a cult that

510
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:25,919
Speaker 5: also believes that their end justifies any means, illegal means,

511
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 5: undemocratic means, unethical means, and no one steps up, maybe

512
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 5: every once in a while, with the possible exception of

513
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 5: Mitt Romney, but other than those who have left in horror,

514
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 5: the Liz Cheney's and Bill Crystals of the world. If

515
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 5: we look at elected representatives, they're all culpable in this

516
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 5: criminal scheme.

517
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:52,919
Speaker 1: When you think about this Maga, Mike, this snooze speaker

518
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 1: of the House, he's quite smart. He reminds me of

519
00:25:56,520 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 1: a kind of if Sidney Powell look like Paul Ryan discuss.

520
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 3: Yeah.

521
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 5: So Matt Gates, of course is smiling and laughing because

522
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:10,920
Speaker 5: the fact is having engineered this scheme to begin with,

523
00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:14,919
Speaker 5: to get Kevin McCarthy and bring in somebody who was

524
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:19,360
Speaker 5: as extreme as him. What he knew was that if

525
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 5: he and his mega mob basically objected to every nominee

526
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 5: coming forward that didn't fit entirely their purest pattern of

527
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 5: a radical extremist, that eventually the less lunatic members of

528
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:41,159
Speaker 5: the Republican Conference would cave and let them get the

529
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 5: person they wanted, and that worked. What we know about

530
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 5: Mike Johnson other than the fact that he's singularly unqualified

531
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 5: to be Speaker of the House because he has no

532
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 5: clue what it means to be Speaker of the House.

533
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 5: He's hardly been in the House at all, much less

534
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 5: in any kind of position where he's close to the

535
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 5: responsibility are decisions that have to be made by a speaker.

536
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 3: But far more.

537
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 5: Significant is that he is a fundamentalist, Christian nationalist extremist.

538
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 5: And the idea that every single Republican in the House

539
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:20,159
Speaker 5: would vote for this guy is mind boggling, and it

540
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 5: tells me two things, Molly.

541
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 1: I mean.

542
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 5: The first is that it's not just Donald Trump. Obviously,

543
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,919
Speaker 5: Donald Trump had a lot to do with killing Tom Emmer,

544
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 5: who all the bad choices was the least worst, and

545
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:37,239
Speaker 5: he killed them not just because Emmer had voted to

546
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:42,200
Speaker 5: certify the twenty twenty election, but also because he knew

547
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 5: that I'm sure from conversations with others in the House,

548
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,199
Speaker 5: Emmer would go down and that he could look like

549
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 5: the kingmaker here again. But we also hope that Emmer's

550
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 5: support for same sex marriage was another nail in his

551
00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 5: speakership coffin, which is insane. Yeah, you know, you have

552
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 5: somebody coming up to you saying you don't have to

553
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 5: answer to me, you have to answer to Jesus because

554
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:09,640
Speaker 5: you're for these horrible things. So instead they got somebody

555
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 5: who wants to criminalize same sex sex and have a

556
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 5: national don't say gay law, who has come out with

557
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:22,920
Speaker 5: hatred towards trans people, and that fits their bill right now.

558
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,199
Speaker 5: But the other part of this that really needs to

559
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 5: be emphasized is that we not only have these extremists,

560
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:34,399
Speaker 5: but everybody else who doesn't fit that descriptor none of

561
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 5: them are moderates. And it still drives me up a wall.

562
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 5: Another part of what me unhappy is and I saw

563
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 5: this yesterday over and over on CNN and even on

564
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 5: MSNBC referring to some of the House Republicans as moderates.

565
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 5: There isn't a sick moderate, but there are some who

566
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 5: are not crazy, and they're all moral cowards. They go

567
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 5: on with this. And I saw this morning that there

568
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 5: was a No Layle's phone call with some of these

569
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 5: problems solver, and I use that term very very looselyeth

570
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 5: Republicans going on the no Labels call, which was simply

571
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 5: to try to mollify their billionaire Republican funders who are

572
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 5: trying to make sure that Joe Biden will lose even

573
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 5: if he wins some more votes and more states. And

574
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 5: so you've got some of these so called moderates saying, oh,

575
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 5: you know, he's a really good guy, he's not going

576
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 5: to behave that way, he doesn't really mean that stuff,

577
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 5: which is all a bunch of crap. They're going along

578
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 5: with it. So they're no better than the Matt gateses

579
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 5: or Marjorie Taylor Green's or Lauren Bobert's or Virginia Fox's.

580
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 5: And that list is a very very long one.

581
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 1: Were you struck by though, those backbenchers going not I

582
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 1: mean that group. What you know, there's a clip that

583
00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 1: went viral of a journal as saying, you know, did

584
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 1: you believe that the twenty twenty election was stolen? And

585
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 1: they started screaming at her, and Virginia Fox was like,

586
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 1: shut up. I mean, it's been three weeks of these

587
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 1: backbenchers really taking the spotlight and it's not an impressive group.

588
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 7: You know.

589
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 5: I often will say that the lunatic fringe is now

590
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 5: the vast majority. And one of the things that's so depressing,

591
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 5: Molly is that you look at this collection of people,

592
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 5: and then you look at the farm team, you look

593
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 5: at who's coming up, the next generation, the people who

594
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:39,719
Speaker 5: are in state legislatures, on city councils now increasingly on

595
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 5: school boards, and they make this group look like Abraham Lincoln.

596
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 5: We're not going to get better anytime soon. And the

597
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 5: only thing that may help is if they suffer a

598
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 5: withering defeat in the twenty twenty four elections. But with that,

599
00:30:56,120 --> 00:31:00,080
Speaker 5: given that, they have allies, to say the least on

600
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 5: the Supreme Court, and we now see that North Carolina

601
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 5: is about to implement an absolutely outrageous, hyperpartisan jerrymander that

602
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 5: could cost Democrats three seats there that may be balanced

603
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 5: a little bit by gaining a seat in Louisiana and

604
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 5: perhaps one in Alabama. But you know, so many of

605
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 5: these districts are rigged, and the system is so tribal

606
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 5: now in the country that while I think the Democrats

607
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 5: will recapture the House, it's no sure thing. Well, let

608
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 5: me say that if we somehow skate through the presidential

609
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 5: contest and there are no labels Cornell West worrying me

610
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 5: a good deal. If Democrats don't recapture the House, and

611
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 5: if Mike Johnson is able to hold on and not

612
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 5: suffer the fate of all these other Republican leaders because

613
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 5: he isn't purest enough, in the end, we're going to

614
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 5: have a leader in the election denying group that tried

615
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 5: to overturn the election in twenty twenty running the House

616
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 5: and very possibly overturning the results of the twenty twenty

617
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 5: four election. So the stakes in the House could not

618
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 5: be higher right now, not just for the immediate term.

619
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 5: Whether we have an extended government shut down, cut out

620
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 5: the legs from under Selenski and Ukraine and benefit Vladimir Putin,

621
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 5: or begin to move towards truly destructive policies that would

622
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 5: undermine almost everything that we do in government and protecting

623
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 5: our democracy, but we could lose it all if we're

624
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 5: not vigilant and work hard.

625
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,840
Speaker 1: Next year, we just keep coming to this precipice of democracy.

626
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 1: The thing that I worry about a lot is that

627
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 1: these Republicans really are so hot to hold on to power.

628
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 1: And we talked about this so the Supreme Court. It

629
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 1: feels like they just aren't bound by the same stuff

630
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 1: the rest of us are.

631
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 5: Oh, I think that's absolutely the case. The rules don't matter.

632
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 5: And you know, the way I will often frame this

633
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 5: is that the Constitution, the laws, the rules are kind

634
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:12,680
Speaker 5: of the exoskeleton of our political system. But the norms

635
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:17,480
Speaker 5: are like the tendons and the ligaments, and if they wither,

636
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 5: the whole thing falls apart, and we now have a

637
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 5: group of people for whom none of these other principles matters.

638
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 5: It is truly the ends justify the means, and the

639
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 5: fact that they have allies in the courts, that they

640
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 5: are able to exploit the seams in the political system,

641
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 5: and a political system that is heavily tilted towards the minority,

642
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 5: but that they've used crowbars to make even more of

643
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 5: that tilt work is a very frightening thing. It's true

644
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 5: that Donald Trump was an accelerant of this process, he

645
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 5: didn't start. It started a long time before he came

646
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 5: on the scene. Some of these elements, I should say,

647
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 5: go back before any of us were born. One of

648
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 5: the things that I'm trying to do now is get injected,

649
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 5: at least into the mainstream the idea of enlarging the

650
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:17,240
Speaker 5: House of Representatives. I mention this because effectively the size,

651
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 5: which grew every ten years as the population group, was

652
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:24,239
Speaker 5: fixed at four hundred and thirty five in nineteen ten,

653
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 5: informally formally in nineteen twenty nine. But if you go

654
00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 5: back and look at why they wouldn't keep enlarging the House,

655
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:36,439
Speaker 5: the fundamental reason is that we had all of these

656
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 5: immigrants coming from Eastern Europe into through Ellis Island and

657
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 5: occupying the northeast end the midwest, and we had former

658
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 5: slave families who left the south and moved up to

659
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:53,399
Speaker 5: the north. And the Conservatives, then Democrats now they are

660
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 5: all Republicans figured that they could limit the power of

661
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:01,239
Speaker 5: these people coming in by capping the size of the

662
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:04,319
Speaker 5: House and not letting them get more districts and more

663
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 5: political power. And you go back even further. We had

664
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 5: a Dakota territory, it became a North Dakota, in a

665
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 5: South Dakota. You had a Virginia that became a Virginia

666
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:18,359
Speaker 5: and a West Virginia. Why so that conservative areas could

667
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 5: have more representation in the Senate and more leverage. So,

668
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 5: you know, the manipulation of the process often with what

669
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 5: are you know, on the surface legitimate means, but for

670
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 5: illegitimate ends goes way back. But when I look at

671
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 5: it now, you know we're almost at a point, for example,

672
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:39,840
Speaker 5: where seventy percent of Americans will live in just fifteen

673
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:43,359
Speaker 5: of our fifty states. It's because people congregate to those

674
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 5: states where the economic dynamism gives them opportunities. Two thirds

675
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:50,720
Speaker 5: of our GDP comes from those fifteen states.

676
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 2: But if you flip that.

677
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 5: Around, not only does it mean more distortion in the

678
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 5: electoral college, but it means that thirty percent of Americans

679
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 5: will elect seventy US Senators enough to veto anything to

680
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 5: block action if they don't like it. And it's not

681
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 5: that you know, the small states are all Republican and

682
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 5: the big states are all controlled by Democrats, but that

683
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 5: thirty percent don't reflect at all the diversity of the country,

684
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 5: or its economic dynamism, or its larger political views. So

685
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 5: our elections are on the road to becoming illegitimate for

686
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 5: most people, even if Donald Trump disappears from the scene

687
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 5: very very soon. And these people who are now running

688
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 5: things are going to be able to manipulate the system

689
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:38,840
Speaker 5: even more to get their way, including having stacked the

690
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 5: deck with judges who they've deliberately picked to be young

691
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 5: enough that they can be there for decades even if

692
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 5: they lose political power. So how do I put this?

693
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 2: We're fucked nor Morenstein, Thank you.

694
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 5: Have a nice thing.

695
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:58,440
Speaker 1: Wally Ian Bramer is the president of the Eurasia Group.

696
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 1: Welcome back to vast politics.

697
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 3: Thank you, MOLLI good to be with you.

698
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 1: So it feels like a moment to have you to

699
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 1: talk about. You know, I feel like Americans are so

700
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:12,880
Speaker 1: or at least this is my experience America centric, and

701
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 1: then all of a sudden we remember that there's like

702
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 1: a whole world out there and what happens and.

703
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 2: It actually affects us.

704
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 1: I feel like this was a moment where it was

705
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:24,759
Speaker 1: like a shift back to foreign policy, if that makes

706
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:25,360
Speaker 1: any sense.

707
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:27,319
Speaker 2: First, of all, you know, I love you, Molli, So

708
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 2: I don't want to start.

709
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:30,319
Speaker 7: I don't want to start by disagreeing with you, but

710
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 7: I have to tell me because for the last almost

711
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 7: twenty months, the United States has focused an enormous amount

712
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 7: on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, right right, right, And

713
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 7: I will tell you that for the last two weeks,

714
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,399
Speaker 7: no one's asked me about it, not at all. Yeah,

715
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 7: I've been thrown completely off the headlines. But it's enormously relevant,

716
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 7: and we do care about it in the sense that

717
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 7: we've been thinking about and talking about it, and it

718
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 7: went from being a pretty bipartisan issue to becoming a

719
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 7: partisan issue. I will say that it certainly when we

720
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 7: talk about Israel, pallace Stein. Not only do Americans have

721
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 7: strong views about it, but they are incredibly divided views.

722
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:09,879
Speaker 7: And there are also views that are very different from

723
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 7: almost everybody else in the rest of the world. And

724
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 7: both of those things are important here. How are they

725
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:18,880
Speaker 7: different from everyone else in the world. So I believe

726
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:23,800
Speaker 7: that it is almost inevitable that the Israelis are going

727
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 7: to engage in a ground war against Hamas that will

728
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 7: be long and brutal, with the effort of destroying that

729
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 7: terrorist organization, and the United States, while privately the US

730
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 7: has been saying, we'd really rather if you didn't do this,

731
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 7: please delay humanitarian support. I strongly believe that when the

732
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 7: Israelis engage in a ground war, the Americans will provide

733
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 7: full throated support for that ground war, and indeed the

734
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,359
Speaker 7: US may well also be fighting in the region. There

735
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 7: will be attacks, more attacks against American troops in the

736
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 7: region that will happen, that will expand, and it's reasonably

737
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,319
Speaker 7: likely that the United States will be directly involved in

738
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 7: the fighting. That will absolutely not be the position of

739
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 7: almost anyone else in the world. The vast majority of

740
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:19,880
Speaker 7: countries will oppose a ground war, even the vast majority

741
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:24,919
Speaker 7: of democracy will oppose a ground war. So that's one

742
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 7: way the Americans are very different. And then inside the

743
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,440
Speaker 7: United States, of course, it is true that Israel is

744
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 7: America's strongest ally in the Middle East, and that's been

745
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:36,880
Speaker 7: true for a long time. But young people Generation Z

746
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 7: in the US are actually much more sympathetic to the

747
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:46,799
Speaker 7: Palestinian cause, while the rest of the Americans are far

748
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:50,720
Speaker 7: more aligned with Israel, and that, of course we're seeing

749
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 7: play out on campuses and on social media and everything

750
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 7: else is going to be a lot more of that.

751
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,799
Speaker 1: So I want to stop here for a minute and

752
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:05,279
Speaker 1: just and to ask you why you think this is inevitable.

753
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 4: There are many reasons, and the reason I think it's

754
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:08,279
Speaker 4: inevitable is.

755
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 7: Because I believe that the Israeli war cabinet has already

756
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,719
Speaker 7: made the decision to go, and they have been delaying

757
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:19,279
Speaker 7: under a lot of pressure, particularly from the US. The

758
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 7: most important reason they have delayed is because the Americans

759
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 7: want to get more defensive capacity in the region, securing

760
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:32,279
Speaker 7: US bases, ships and the like, because the Americans know

761
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:36,840
Speaker 7: that attacks against Americans going to go way up once

762
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 7: you have tanks streaming into Gaza. That's the main reason

763
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 7: why they're delaying. They're also trying to get more hostages

764
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 7: freed through indirect negotiations involving the Cuttery government and the

765
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 7: Tamas political leadership that is based in Doha. And then

766
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 7: also there is efforts to get more humanitarian aid. And

767
00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 7: I wish that was a principal reason that was driving

768
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 7: the delay. It is not, but it is a reason.

769
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 7: But I think the decision has been made.

770
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 3: Now.

771
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 7: If you're asking me, why has the decision been made.

772
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 7: I think they are. It's the fact that Israel has

773
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 7: been so traumatized by what happened on October seventh. Non

774
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:20,840
Speaker 7: Yahoo is responsible for the failures of Israeli national security.

775
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 7: He's still in charge, ultimately calling the shots, and he

776
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:26,440
Speaker 7: needs to prove himself, wants to prove himself.

777
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 3: But it's not just that, it's the fact that.

778
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 7: Everyone in Israel knows someone personally who's been killed or

779
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:37,440
Speaker 7: is a hostage. Said, three hundred and sixty thousand Israelis

780
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 7: have been called up and mobilized to fight in the war.

781
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 7: That's four percent of the population. When I'm talking to

782
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 7: Israeli leaders, they are constantly being interrupted by air sirens

783
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 7: and having to go into their safe rooms, and their

784
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 7: sleep is being interrupted, and they're being all these demands

785
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:54,799
Speaker 7: are being made by the families of.

786
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:56,880
Speaker 3: Those that have been killed and those that are held hostage.

787
00:41:56,920 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 7: I mean, I think that this is a level of

788
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:03,719
Speaker 7: emotional trucks that is really inconceivable for you and me.

789
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 7: But that I'm trying to understand as the American government

790
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:10,239
Speaker 7: is working with these folks and saying, look, they're just

791
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 7: not thinking strategically. This is about retribution. It's an emotional response.

792
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:16,360
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that makes a lot of sense,

793
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:19,399
Speaker 1: the thinking and what's happened. And this reminds us all

794
00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 1: of what it was like in New York after nine

795
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 1: to eleven, certainly, where there was a sense that they're

796
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 1: just it was sort of incalculatable. But what I'm curious

797
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 1: about is the hostages. I mean, do we have any

798
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:34,719
Speaker 1: more of a sense of four hostages? There are two

799
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 1: hundred plus plus maybe two fourteen I've read. Do we

800
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:41,360
Speaker 1: have any sense of like, will more be released? Do

801
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:43,360
Speaker 1: you get a sense of that. We think there are

802
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 1: over two hundred and twenty hostages. We also believe a

803
00:42:47,680 --> 00:42:50,760
Speaker 1: fair number of them are already dead. Because they're being

804
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 1: held in a tunnel network inside northern Gaza. The ability

805
00:42:56,760 --> 00:43:02,080
Speaker 1: to free them through a search and rest mission is negligible,

806
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:05,359
Speaker 1: so the only way they're getting out is through diplomacy.

807
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:07,359
Speaker 1: I absolutely believe.

808
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:09,680
Speaker 7: That more will be freed, But I mean, we're not

809
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 7: talking about all of them. We're probably not talking about

810
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 7: most of them. Keep in mind, I mean there's different

811
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:20,480
Speaker 7: types of hostages. You've got civilians and you have active

812
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 7: members of the Israeli military. The latter very hard to

813
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 7: see going anywhere unless there were massive numbers of Palestinians

814
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 7: that were freed. And I have a hard time seeing

815
00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 7: the Israelis doing that. But I also know that there

816
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 7: is a willingness on the part of the war cabinet

817
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 7: to put those lives at risk through a ground war.

818
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 7: This is not the same calculus as was experienced by

819
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:48,760
Speaker 7: Israel before October seventh.

820
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 2: And how could it be? I want to pull.

821
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:53,200
Speaker 1: Back and talk about the region because it's such a complicated,

822
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 1: interconnected region that will have enormous economic consequences for all

823
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:00,799
Speaker 1: of us. And also this war, I think there's a

824
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 1: lot of anxiety, certainly that it could mushroom.

825
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:06,800
Speaker 2: So what does it look like in the Arab world?

826
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 1: Like where do you see potential support coming from for

827
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:15,240
Speaker 1: the Palestinians? Where do you see the potential support coming

828
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 1: to the Israelis?

829
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 2: And do you think that some of this.

830
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:21,799
Speaker 1: Happened because of the normalization of relationships between Israel and

831
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia?

832
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 7: It absolutely came from the broader normalization of Israel with

833
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 7: everybody while the Palestinians were being forgotten. The number of

834
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:37,440
Speaker 7: people that are complicit and responsible for the Palestinians being

835
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 7: screwed is so substantial. It's the corrupt local Palestinian governments,

836
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 7: both Hamas and the Palestinian authority. I mean, look how

837
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 7: much military equipment Hamas has and just how little has

838
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 7: been spent on the development of the Palestinian people.

839
00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 2: It is Israel taking.

840
00:44:56,239 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 7: More of their land illegally in the West Bank and

841
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:04,360
Speaker 7: promoting Hamas as a counter balance to Fatah. It is

842
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 7: the Gulf States and others happy to work with the

843
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 7: Israelis for trade and investment and tourism while the Palestinian

844
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 7: situation gets worse and worse and not doing anything about it.

845
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:18,480
Speaker 7: It's the Americans and the Europeans focusing zero on this issue.

846
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:19,759
Speaker 3: Everyone's complicit.

847
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 7: Everyone's complicit, and so clearly, you know, when my friend

848
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:27,480
Speaker 7: Antonio Guchetz, the Secretary General of the UN, who was

849
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 7: out there immediately condemning Hamas for terrorist activity, but when

850
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 7: he says, let's talk about the context, that's the context

851
00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:39,759
Speaker 7: he's talking about. Will remind me immediately of JFK saying that,

852
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 7: you know, if people don't have a means for peaceful revolution,

853
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 7: they will engage in violent revolution. And literally everyone in

854
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:51,359
Speaker 7: the region and the world was complicit in giving the

855
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,800
Speaker 7: Palestinians no outlet for peaceful revolution.

856
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:56,920
Speaker 1: So let's talk about what the larger landscape looks like.

857
00:45:57,239 --> 00:45:59,359
Speaker 1: This is not the way it was during the Young

858
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:02,760
Speaker 1: pepop War war. This is not Israel versus the world,

859
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:06,800
Speaker 1: you know, versus the Arab world is a different posture.

860
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:09,280
Speaker 1: And can you talk to me about what it looks

861
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 1: like there? Like, where does everyone stand on this?

862
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 7: With the neighbor nations, the neighbor states that have normalized

863
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 7: relations with Israel, both formally and informally in the case

864
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:22,439
Speaker 7: of Saudi, want to maintain that relationship. It ain't gonna

865
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:24,839
Speaker 7: get any better. It will get a little worse because

866
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 7: there'll be a lot of pressure from the Arab street.

867
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 7: But I mean, the Saudis came out and condemned both

868
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:34,000
Speaker 7: Israel and Hamas, which is right, which is unusual literary

869
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:37,880
Speaker 7: from the MBS perspective. Right, that's a big deal. And

870
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:40,560
Speaker 7: Israel is in as you mentioned, you're so right to

871
00:46:40,600 --> 00:46:44,320
Speaker 7: say this, Molly. Their geopolitical position is so much better

872
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 7: than it was in nineteen seventy three. Israel faced an

873
00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:51,120
Speaker 7: existential war literally for its survival. There might be no

874
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:54,720
Speaker 7: state of Israel. There's no such concern here not YAHUO

875
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:58,399
Speaker 7: failed the Israeli people. He should be removed. They have

876
00:46:58,520 --> 00:47:00,120
Speaker 7: the capacity to defend their border.

877
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:03,560
Speaker 2: And the polling says that the Israeli people blame him

878
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:05,799
Speaker 2: for this as well they should they blame him.

879
00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:09,400
Speaker 7: In fact, far more Jews in Israel blame not Yahoo

880
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:12,440
Speaker 7: then want a ground war, and I think that is

881
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 7: a message that should be delivered loudly, like how do

882
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 7: the Israelis feel about all of this? And the same

883
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:20,359
Speaker 7: way that you want to know, how do the Palestinians

884
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 7: feel about Hamas? And they're not all terrorists, but not

885
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:26,640
Speaker 7: all Israeli support what's been happening on the ground in Israel.

886
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 7: That's why you've had these massive demonstrations inside the country,

887
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 7: almost all peaceful over the last months and months and months.

888
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 7: But the problem here is that this war is going

889
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 7: to expand. It's not just a ground war in Gaza.

890
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:42,920
Speaker 7: There will be fighting in the West Bank. Dozens and

891
00:47:42,960 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 7: dozens of Palestinians have already lost their lives in the

892
00:47:45,520 --> 00:47:48,680
Speaker 7: last couple of weeks in the West Bank. That will expand.

893
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 7: There will be more fighting with Hesbellah that could become

894
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 7: a new front in the war. There will be more

895
00:47:55,719 --> 00:48:01,240
Speaker 7: attacks against Americans in the region from Iranian proxiesis in Yemen,

896
00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 7: and like the Shia militants in Iraq and the United

897
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:08,320
Speaker 7: States is very likely to be directly involved in that fighting.

898
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 7: So this is very different from Russia Ukraine in that

899
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 7: in two critical ways. First that the Americans are going

900
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:17,880
Speaker 7: to be supporting the Israeli's militarily kind of by themselves,

901
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:20,960
Speaker 7: and secondly, that the Americans are going to be involved

902
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 7: in the fighting. And neither of those things have been

903
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:25,640
Speaker 7: true in the last twenty months of Russia Ukraine.

904
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 1: So that's a really good point. Now what does that

905
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:31,880
Speaker 1: look like for Russia and Ukraine? I mean, how do

906
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:36,280
Speaker 1: the Ukrainian sort of go from here? Because they seem worried,

907
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:38,719
Speaker 1: they should be worried. This has been a great a

908
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:42,319
Speaker 1: great two weeks for putin. The United States just put

909
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 1: a new speaker, Mike Johnson in place. He's overwhelmingly interested

910
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:52,200
Speaker 1: in supporting Israel. He's absolutely not interested in providing support

911
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:55,960
Speaker 1: for Ukraine. At best, the US might be able to

912
00:48:56,040 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 1: do a small fraction of what Biden asked for the

913
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:03,239
Speaker 1: Ukrainians for the coming year. That means they can still

914
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:05,800
Speaker 1: fight a defensive war, but they can't do another counter

915
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 1: offensive and the last one hasn't gone so well. I

916
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:12,520
Speaker 1: have a hard time seeing the Ukrainians taking more of

917
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:15,759
Speaker 1: their territory back than the eighty two percent which they

918
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 1: presently occupy. And I think the Europeans are going to

919
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:21,760
Speaker 1: be very worried, especially as we now enter the twenty

920
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 1: twenty four election season with Trump wanting to cut the

921
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:29,880
Speaker 1: Ukrainians off completely. The Europeans are going to feel much

922
00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:32,680
Speaker 1: more like they need to hedge away from the United

923
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:35,000
Speaker 1: States on a bunch of these issues. They aren't as

924
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:38,280
Speaker 1: aligned on Israel, They're becoming less.

925
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:41,839
Speaker 7: Aligned on Ukraine. This will affect them on China too,

926
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:44,719
Speaker 7: and especially because all of this is so much more

927
00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 7: of a direct security concern for the Europeans than it.

928
00:49:47,480 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 2: Is for the Right, because it's so much closer to them.

929
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:51,320
Speaker 2: It's so much closer.

930
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:54,600
Speaker 7: They get the refugees, they get the potential for asymmetric attacks.

931
00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:58,240
Speaker 7: I mean, all day, They've got to pay higher input costs, infrastructure, energy,

932
00:49:58,280 --> 00:49:58,840
Speaker 7: all this stuff.

933
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 1: And it does feel like netnya who is not interested

934
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:06,480
Speaker 1: in decruing business with the President of Ukraine.

935
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 7: Oh god, yeah, you've got to remember that Natnya, who

936
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:14,840
Speaker 7: has not supported US and European sanctions, has refused to

937
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 7: join them against Prussia. He has not provided Ukraine with

938
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 7: any military support, unlike the Europeans and the Americans. Zelenski,

939
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:28,440
Speaker 7: of course, is himself Jewish, and after the October seventh

940
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:33,560
Speaker 7: attacks he immediately denounced Thamas express solidarity with Israel. Saw

941
00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:36,960
Speaker 7: this as an opportunity and offered to come down to

942
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:41,880
Speaker 7: Israel in solidarity Natnya, who said no, it was not

943
00:50:42,080 --> 00:50:45,040
Speaker 7: the time, and hours later took a phone call from Putin,

944
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 7: who has been supporting Kamas. So I mean clearly, the

945
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:50,800
Speaker 7: Israelis are not remotely aligned with the Americans on the

946
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:52,760
Speaker 7: Ukraine issue, so Putin.

947
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:55,840
Speaker 2: Will not be involved in being anti Israel.

948
00:50:56,160 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 7: I do think that the Israel Russia relationship has been

949
00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:03,480
Speaker 7: signed magnificantly damaged. There are members of the Non Yahoo

950
00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:07,400
Speaker 7: government that have actively denounced Putin because of his support

951
00:51:07,440 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 7: for Hamas, not mil ferry or financial support, but his

952
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 7: rhetorical support. But Non Yahoo will be very careful on

953
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:16,799
Speaker 7: this issue going forward, and I expect Putin will as well.

954
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:18,399
Speaker 3: Putin will be aligned with.

955
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:21,359
Speaker 7: China and the Gulf States in terms of what they're

956
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:25,280
Speaker 7: doing at the Security Council and broadly diplomatically. I don't

957
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:29,040
Speaker 7: see the Russians as being directly involved in the fighting

958
00:51:29,080 --> 00:51:29,720
Speaker 7: on the ground.

959
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:30,759
Speaker 3: I don't see that.

960
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:34,520
Speaker 7: I see them taking advantage of the chaos and the

961
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:38,359
Speaker 7: vacuum that comes from this, and certainly it being an

962
00:51:38,360 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 7: advantage for them as they continue this illegal war in Ukraine.

963
00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:46,080
Speaker 2: Unbelievable. Thank you so much, Ian Suremali, good to talk

964
00:51:46,080 --> 00:51:46,279
Speaker 2: to you.

965
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:49,720
Speaker 3: No moment.

966
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:56,319
Speaker 8: Jesse Cannon, my Jung fast, Maga, Mike Johnson. I think

967
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:58,840
Speaker 8: I texted this to you. I feel like we got Santos.

968
00:51:59,040 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 8: No one knew what was coming, and now we're seeing

969
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 8: a lot of horrors. What are you seeing with this guy?

970
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:06,400
Speaker 2: Do we get Santost? Is that like sandbag? Do you

971
00:52:06,480 --> 00:52:07,319
Speaker 2: got Santost?

972
00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:10,920
Speaker 8: When the OPO doesn't come as fast as the candidacy.

973
00:52:10,719 --> 00:52:14,200
Speaker 1: I'm going to say, when the OPO doesn't drop, right,

974
00:52:14,440 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 1: When the OPO doesn't drop, you get Maga, mic So, Maga, Mike.

975
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 2: Everyone's favorite is a I don't know.

976
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:26,240
Speaker 1: He gave an insane speech where he said his wife

977
00:52:26,320 --> 00:52:30,040
Speaker 1: was busy on her knees, which I think he meant prayer,

978
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:35,879
Speaker 1: but the implication is so dicey he's a Christian talk

979
00:52:35,920 --> 00:52:39,759
Speaker 1: show host. He's like dollar store Mike Pence. And for that,

980
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:44,399
Speaker 1: my man is our moment of fuck Ray. That's it

981
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:48,520
Speaker 1: for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday,

982
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:51,479
Speaker 1: and Friday to hear the best minds in politics makes

983
00:52:51,480 --> 00:52:54,800
Speaker 1: sense of all this chaos. If you enjoyed what you've heard,

984
00:52:55,200 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 1: please send it to a friend and keep the conversation going.

985
00:52:58,520 --> 00:52:59,960
Speaker 1: And again, thanks for listening.

986
00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:01,400
Speaker 2: Think