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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen, twenty, twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty twenty five,

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Speaker 1: fifty and.

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Speaker 2: The Chicks block the college football world. Stunner, Oh my goodness,

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Speaker 2: please stumble the football, the lateral turn a general the job,

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Speaker 2: don't you? The lad came them off the field the night.

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Speaker 2: It's not the side of the dog in the fight,

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Speaker 2: it's the size of.

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Speaker 1: The fight in the dog.

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Speaker 2: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: This is the college football preseason Betting Review, Part four.

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Speaker 2: We're talking PAC twelve today. I'm stucky and with me

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Speaker 2: as always as Colin Wilson. You ready to talk some

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Speaker 2: PAC twelve after dark and maybe PAC twelve early morning.

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Speaker 3: Pack twelve nine am bloody Mary. Sounds good to me.

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Speaker 3: Let's just make it an eighteen hour day between Hawaii

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Speaker 3: football and PAC twelve and nine am football.

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Speaker 2: We'll also be talking with Dan Rubinson at the end

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Speaker 2: of the podcast. Many of you might know him from

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Speaker 2: I'll Take that beta show we did with ESPN Solid

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Speaker 2: Verbal podcast, Oregon Guy Pack twelve guys so can't wait

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Speaker 2: to get his thoughts.

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Speaker 3: But you know, we need to start on a different subject.

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Speaker 3: We're well known here for boat up Jim and some

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Speaker 3: of the things that he said about us gamblers last year.

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Speaker 4: Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers, avoid it like the plague.

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Speaker 2: Let's check in with bow Dog Jim.

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Speaker 3: So he doesn't want to associate with gamblers and he

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Speaker 3: wants to avoid us like the plague. But the head

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Speaker 3: coach of your favorite Baltimore Ravens team, I think he

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Speaker 3: had some words yesterday about gambling.

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Speaker 4: Obviously, people say, okay, well what is that limit? What

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Speaker 4: is that pitch count? You see a guy like Cam

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Speaker 4: Newton a max of one hundred and thirty nine times

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Speaker 4: in a given year. Is there an over under on

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Speaker 4: that someplace? I bet the over on that one. I

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Speaker 4: bet the over on that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, let's look, I'm proud Ravens fan, and

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Speaker 2: although I'm Michigan fan this year because of futures. So

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Speaker 2: I mean, at least if it all falls apart, I

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Speaker 2: can blame botog Jim. But yeah, John's when asked about

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Speaker 2: the Lamar Jackson over rushing prop he said, take the over,

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Speaker 2: which is in complete contrast to the our favorite quote

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Speaker 2: from Jim that we always play here. Look, if I

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Speaker 2: had to take it, I'd actually take the under. But

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Speaker 2: we're talking Pack twelve here today. We mentioned the nine

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Speaker 2: am kickoffs. There's a lot of off season Pack twelve news,

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Speaker 2: non team related. You had this talk of potential nine

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Speaker 2: am local kickoffs. I'm down for some nine am local

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Speaker 2: kickoffs on the East Coast, by the way, like you said,

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Speaker 2: let's get this morning started early. And then they announced

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Speaker 2: that the Pactworld Championship Game will now be played in Vegas,

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Speaker 2: I think starting twenty or twenty twenty one out this

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Speaker 2: year but next year. There was also a massive every

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Speaker 2: better out there will relate to this PAC twelve refs,

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Speaker 2: which are well known in the gambling Twitter versus the

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Speaker 2: Worst and probably throughout you know elsewhere outside of Twitter.

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Speaker 2: But they had a consultant come in and look at

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Speaker 2: their entire officiating program at Sipson Consulting, and they did

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Speaker 2: a whole review. The funny thing is they came out

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Speaker 2: and said it's fundamentally sound and predominantly consistent with industry

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Speaker 2: best practice, including with regard to the quality of officials

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Speaker 2: and use of state of the art technology, which is

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Speaker 2: just BS because then they gave about twenty recommendations which

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Speaker 2: they're going to implement. So you know, there's new reporting

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Speaker 2: structures and new replay code. Hopefully we don't have debacles

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Speaker 2: like we did in that USC game last year. New

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Speaker 2: communications protocol, so we'll say if the PAC twelve refs

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Speaker 2: get better this year. But that's a conversation for the season.

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Speaker 2: We're here to talk about each of the twelve PAC

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Speaker 2: twelve teams win totals, future value, and what the overall

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Speaker 2: lay of the land looks like in the PAC twelve

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Speaker 2: headed into the season. And look, I love doing these previews.

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Speaker 2: We get great feedback on them, and I think one

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Speaker 2: of the reasons why they're so successful is that con

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Speaker 2: and I don't talk about any of this beforehand. He

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Speaker 2: sends me his projections and notes right before we record,

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Speaker 2: and I don't share my notes, and then we just

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Speaker 2: spit and we disagree on some we agree on the others.

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Speaker 2: But I think that's why it's word. There's no group think.

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Speaker 2: We don't put our heads together and say, okay, what

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Speaker 2: do we think about this team? That's you're getting that

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Speaker 2: authentic conversation during these podcast previews. So without further ado

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Speaker 2: let's start with the PAC twelve South, and we're going

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Speaker 2: to get the Utah who we both love. We've said

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Speaker 2: it many times, how much we love you. Tom professed

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Speaker 2: our love for the Utes. We'll get to them. Let's

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Speaker 2: and look, it's a very very down pack twelve South.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with two teams that I know that we're

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Speaker 2: probably going to agree on looking at your win total projection,

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Speaker 2: and that's two teams in the state of Arizona. Arizona

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Speaker 2: State and Arizona very similar odds across the board. Look,

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Speaker 2: they have their win totals are both six and a half.

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Speaker 2: Arizona State's juice to the over a little more. They're

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Speaker 2: both thirty to one to win the PAC twelve. You

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Speaker 2: project six point seven wins for Arizona State and project

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Speaker 2: six point eight for Arizona. So with a win total

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Speaker 2: of six and a half, these teams play each other

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Speaker 2: at the end of the season. My sentiment before I

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Speaker 2: look at your projections was I think these two numbers

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Speaker 2: are about right, and it's probably going to come down

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Speaker 2: to that last game of the year, so there's no

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Speaker 2: reason to tie money in either win total. We'll get

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Speaker 2: into each team a little bit in their specifics, but

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Speaker 2: you would agree with that overall general sentiment, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Not only that last season they ended playing each other

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Speaker 3: and it was a difference of one point and I

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Speaker 3: believe the spread floated between a pick to a point

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Speaker 3: and a half and the game ended forty one to forty.

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Speaker 3: So that's how close. You know, it's just razor thin

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Speaker 3: the margins here with these two teams in the state

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Speaker 3: of Arizona, especially win totals of six and a half

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Speaker 3: and then six point eight, six point seven the projections.

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Speaker 2: Yep. Speaking of Arizona State, there's a QB competition which

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Speaker 2: I don't even there's a I think three true freshmen

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Speaker 2: who were involved because obviously they lost Manny Wilkins. They

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Speaker 2: did lose to kill Harry, their star receiver, but they

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Speaker 2: still have a lot of experience at the skill position

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Speaker 2: players and especially at running back. You know Benjamin who

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Speaker 2: might be the best back in the Pac twelve. So

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Speaker 2: the question is going to be kind kind of quarterback

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Speaker 2: emerge on that offense. And we know her Edwards really

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Speaker 2: likes to run the ball, even though it conflicts with

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Speaker 2: what his offensive coordinator really wants to do. You know,

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Speaker 2: tight end plays a question Mark, but the offense has

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Speaker 2: the potential to be really good if someone steps up

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Speaker 2: at that quarterback position. And then on the defensive side,

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Speaker 2: you know, they did lose both tackles as well, which

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Speaker 2: is something to know. The defensive side, they were starting

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Speaker 2: six freshmen towards the end of last year. You know,

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Speaker 2: Robertson in the middle linebackers is solid. They have a

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Speaker 2: pair of three year starters at corner. So there's some

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Speaker 2: town on the defense that you think will get a

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Speaker 2: little better than last year. It wasn't great. There's some

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Speaker 2: pieces here. The problem is this schedule. They play at

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Speaker 2: some tough run defenses, including Michigan State, and they're going

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Speaker 2: to be a run heavy team and relying on Benjamin.

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Speaker 2: They go to Utah as well. What are your thoughts

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Speaker 2: on this overall roster?

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Speaker 3: Yes, I mean with Arizona State first, we're going to

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Speaker 3: start with the quarterback. They do have a red shirt

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Speaker 3: junior Dylan Stirling Cole. I think he red shirted twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 3: He only had two snaps last year. I think at

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Speaker 3: twenty sixteen it was not good at all. He was

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Speaker 3: twenty eight to fifty seven and had one touchdown to

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Speaker 3: four interceptions, So I think they're going to go with

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Speaker 3: the true freshman who is the number two dual threat

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Speaker 3: quarterback in the country with Jade and Daniels. It's actually

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Speaker 3: a pretty good schedule to start off with him, considering

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Speaker 3: they're playing Kent State and Sacramento State, which you know

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Speaker 3: there may be a bet involved there with Michigan State

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Speaker 3: on deck, but you know, herm Edwards played a ton

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Speaker 3: of true freshmen last year, so I think Daniel is

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Speaker 3: going to be the way they go. It could be

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Speaker 3: a struggle in the first two weeks, and you know,

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Speaker 3: Kent State's actually a team in the MAC that I like,

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Speaker 3: and we'll get to them during the Group of Five podcasts,

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Speaker 3: but I think that's something that you definitely want to

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Speaker 3: watch for with Arizona State start off. Now, they leached

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Speaker 3: Danny Gonzalez, the defensive coordinator from San Diego State. He

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Speaker 3: runs the three, three five exactly what exactly what the

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Speaker 3: Aztecs do now. San Diego State did beat them last year,

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Speaker 3: but overall in the stats, they did a really good

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Speaker 3: job of limiting explosive plays.

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Speaker 2: Last year.

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Speaker 3: They still had a poor sack rate of ninetieth. Their

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Speaker 3: third down success rate was one hundred and third, but

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Speaker 3: in general, you know, they were twenty seventh in defensive

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Speaker 3: ISO PPP, so they were really able to stop, you know,

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Speaker 3: limit explosive plays and their fourteenth and returning production on

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Speaker 3: the defensive side of the ball. So I think it's

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Speaker 3: only going to get better. You know, in contrast to Arizona,

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Speaker 3: you know, they have five of their nine PAC twelve

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Speaker 3: games at home, because in the PAC twelve you played nine,

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Speaker 3: so it's not always going to be even number of

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Speaker 3: home and road games. And they got three home games

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Speaker 3: in November and that's pretty big. They got road trips

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Speaker 3: to the UCLA, Oregon State UCLA. It's a very manageable

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Speaker 3: conference schedule. So I like Arizona State. If you had

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Speaker 3: to take a total, I would take them on the over.

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Speaker 3: But like we said before, it's going to come down

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Speaker 3: to that last game.

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Speaker 2: I would agree, Yeah, I actually lean Arizona State over

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Speaker 2: in Arizona under. But you know, if Arizona wins that

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Speaker 2: game at the end of the year, it didn't temp

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Speaker 2: be that they could potentially get the seven. But they

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Speaker 2: have a weird schedule. Now, look, it's going to be

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Speaker 2: Khalil Tate back. They have a dynamic running back and

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Speaker 2: JJ Taylor. They're going to run their up tempo offense.

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Speaker 2: They have all due receivers though, so what are they

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Speaker 2: going to get from the receiving corps? Can Khalil Tate

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Speaker 2: stay healthy. There's some potential at linebacker and in the secondary,

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Speaker 2: Winnaker back at corner, but they had no pass rush

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Speaker 2: at all. They also have a kicker that you love

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Speaker 2: and Haversik who missed that extra point for you. He's

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Speaker 2: the kicker this year. But the question with Arizona is, look,

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Speaker 2: this team could go. They could win nine games if

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Speaker 2: things start out well, or they could win three if

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Speaker 2: things don't. Because their beginning schedule is very manageable, but

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Speaker 2: there's some tricky spots. So starting at Hawaii on August

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Speaker 2: twenty fourth, then they played Northern Arizona, who has cook

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Speaker 2: Us back at quarterback. I think they beat UTEP last year,

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Speaker 2: but they lost a ton. They should win that game

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Speaker 2: at home in their home opener. Then they have Texas

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Speaker 2: Tech at home, then a bye, then Ucla at home,

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Speaker 2: then they're at Colorado, so realistically they could be five

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Speaker 2: and oh and then they're hosting Washington and then all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden It's like there's gonna be a ton

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Speaker 2: of hype around the team and Tate and you know,

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Speaker 2: that's a huge game, the potential to get to six

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Speaker 2: and oh if they start five, but look if they

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Speaker 2: lose the Texas Tech, if they trip up on the island,

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Speaker 2: you know, if they go to Colorado with Washington on deck,

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Speaker 2: you know, and look ahead from that game after the

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Speaker 2: four and oh, another tricky spot because then all of

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Speaker 2: a sudden they go to USC to Stanford. Then they

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Speaker 2: play at Oregon at Arizona State, and have Utah at home.

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Speaker 2: So the schedule gets really tough. So if they start out,

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Speaker 2: they trip up a couple of games to get really

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Speaker 2: ugly with Arizona.

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Speaker 3: You know when you have a girlfriend, you have a breakup,

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Speaker 3: and you forget about her for a while, and you

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Speaker 3: come back and you were just so emotionally invested in

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Speaker 3: it that you just kind of bury it and you

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Speaker 3: don't want to think about it. That's kind of what

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Speaker 3: Arizona is to me, because I got so wrapped up

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Speaker 3: into Koliltate and the highlights of what we saw from

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Speaker 3: two years ago. The last year hurt, I mean, Houston

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Speaker 3: Twist's ankle in a pile, he gets up and he's

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Speaker 3: not the same for the rest of the year, and

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Speaker 3: we kind of argue and think that it may be

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Speaker 3: the offensive coordinator or maybe it's Kevin Someble's not letting

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Speaker 3: them run outside the pocket while he's got all his

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Speaker 3: you know, his ankle taped up for the rest of

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Speaker 3: the season. Listen, clill Tate, it's one hundred percent healthy again,

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Speaker 3: so much that I'm on the Twitter looking for videos

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Speaker 3: of him just taking snaps and throwing the ball yesterday

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Speaker 3: in practice. He's currently one hundred to one at Westgate

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Speaker 3: for the Heisman. I'm not sure if we want to

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Speaker 3: go down that path, but you know, a week zero

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Speaker 3: total of seventy at that game on the Island, that

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Speaker 3: mean that seems like one of the easiest overs you

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Speaker 3: could put together. Between Cole McDonald being helvy and clill

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Speaker 3: Tate being healthy, that's going to be crazy. But they

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Speaker 3: actually improved in defense last year. I remember last year

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Speaker 3: their roster was just loaded with freshman Over half the

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Speaker 3: team was true freshmen, and they actually improved from one

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Speaker 3: hundred and fifteenth in S and P plus defense in

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Speaker 3: twenty seventeen to seventy fourth last year. Now, that doesn't

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Speaker 3: seem like they have a very good defense, and they don't,

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Speaker 3: but it's still a massive improvement. Marcell Yates is still

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Speaker 3: there as a defensive coordinator. They've got to work on

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Speaker 3: finishing drives. They were one hundred and nineteenth. They got

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Speaker 3: to work on sack right. They were one hundred and

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Speaker 3: the offense is is all the offensive linemen. The offensive

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Speaker 3: lineman was just like it was a clown car of

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Speaker 3: guys just filling positions in different spots and they didn't

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Speaker 3: know where they were going to find guys. I think

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Speaker 3: they were searching the campus for people to come in

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Speaker 3: and play. But they have four offensive linemen that had

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Speaker 3: nine starts last year. That's good for Khalil Tate. That's

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Speaker 3: good for JJ Taylor, you know. But they only have

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Speaker 3: four of their nine conference games at home. You know.

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Speaker 3: It consists of Washington and Utah. And the one thing

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Speaker 3: that I do not like about Arizona's schedule, they spend

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Speaker 3: both their bye weeks before September twenty eighth. If Khalil

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Speaker 3: Tate gets hurt, if somebody gets hurt, if juries start

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Speaker 3: taking a toll, they've wasted their two free bye weeks

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Speaker 3: before we even get to October and that's not a

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Speaker 3: good thing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and especially they drive a couple of games like

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Speaker 2: it could get ugly for Arizona. But again, if they

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Speaker 2: win those first five games, then who knows? Look out?

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I agree, I think I would lean under.

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Speaker 2: I think things could go wrong, especially with their buys,

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Speaker 2: and I think there's a better chance that things go

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Speaker 2: wrong and go south for Arizona. But if they get

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Speaker 2: them off to the hot start, who knows. Another team

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Speaker 2: not projected to do much in the PAC twelve South

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Speaker 2: as Colorado win total is four, they're one hundred to

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Speaker 2: one to win the Pack twelve at Westgate. They do

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Speaker 2: have five Pack twelve road games. And something that you've

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Speaker 2: been noting. The only team in the PAC twelve of

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Speaker 2: the new coach so Mel Tucker, the longtime Nick Saban disciple,

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Speaker 2: he was in the NFL, who's been at Georgia for

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Speaker 2: the last couple of years. Defensive guy. He comes in.

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Speaker 2: They have Montese back at Quarterbacksanault at wide receiver, so

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Speaker 2: that should be an electric connection. They do, you have

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Speaker 2: to replace their entire backfield. Thus Trayvon McMillan and his backups.

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Speaker 2: They have a couple pieces on defense, including the STUFFA

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Speaker 2: Johnson up front on the defensive line for Tucker to

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Speaker 2: work with. I was surprised to see that you projected

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Speaker 2: them to get to five point three wins, especially with

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Speaker 2: five pack twelve road games a new head coach. I

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Speaker 2: think the win total looks about right. You know, if

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Speaker 2: you did make me better, I'd probably go over. But

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Speaker 2: especially you're getting plus money at over four. But five

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Speaker 2: point three, I's always a little high. You high in

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Speaker 2: the buffs than most.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I am high on the buffs. And you know,

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Speaker 3: I discussed this a couple of weeks ago with Matt

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Speaker 3: Lindaman on our podcast. You guys can search back and

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Speaker 3: listen to that because it originally opened up three and

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Speaker 3: a half and it was the biggest discrepancy that I

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Speaker 3: had versus Caesars numbers, and you know, it's all just mathematics.

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Speaker 3: They got an upgrade for me, just a small tick

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Speaker 3: up for head coach Metal Tucker. He was with Nick

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Speaker 3: Saban since the nineties at Michigan State. He was, you know,

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Speaker 3: a big part of the of the Georgia defense over

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Speaker 3: the past three years. They got a little bit of

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Speaker 3: a tickup for returning production. They got a little bit

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Speaker 3: of a tickup for second order win total. So because

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Speaker 3: of that, I mean, they're still ranked, they're still power

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Speaker 3: rate at eleventh out of twelve teams in the conference.

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Speaker 3: So it's not like they've jumped anybody. It's just that,

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Speaker 3: you know, they got these little bumps in the offseason

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Speaker 3: that kind of got them to five point three. But

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Speaker 3: you know, the more I dig into it, do I

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Speaker 3: have a Colorado over three and a half? I do,

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Speaker 3: so I would just taking a four, but you know,

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Speaker 3: doing you know more, a deeper dive on these guys

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Speaker 3: over the last month, and I look on the offensive

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Speaker 3: side of the ball, and you're right, chanalt Montes, these

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Speaker 3: are two electric players that we love to watch. But

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Speaker 3: Jay Johnson was hired as our offensive coordinator. He was

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Speaker 3: an analyt. He was an analyst at Georgia last year

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Speaker 3: and before that, he was an offensive coordinator at Minnesota.

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Speaker 3: They were one hundred and thirteenth in explosiveness and seventy

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Speaker 3: eighth in efficiency in twenty sixteen. That's not very good.

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Speaker 3: So I went a little bit farther back into offensive

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Speaker 3: coordinator Jay Johnson's pass. I went to twenty fifteen Louisiana

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Speaker 3: Lafayette one hundred and third and I so PPP seventy

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Speaker 3: fourth in efficiency. This guy has not been able to

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Speaker 3: produce any explosive team whatsoever on offense, and he's never

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Speaker 3: been able to produce anything in the top seventy when

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Speaker 3: it comes to an efficient offense. So I mean, he

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Speaker 3: gets a Montes and Chanault, so at least his explosiveness

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Speaker 3: numbers should increase. But there's nothing here saying that the

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Speaker 3: offensive side of the ball has been enhanced with these

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Speaker 3: coaching changes. You know, they do start off with Colorado State,

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Speaker 3: Nebraska and air Force defenses, which is good. You know,

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Speaker 3: those defenses allow a lot of yards. So we'll see

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Speaker 3: how they start off. But I'm just I'm a little

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Speaker 3: nervous about the creativeness of Jay Johnson on the offensive side.

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Speaker 2: Fair enough, let's move on in the PAC twelve South

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Speaker 2: and talk about a team that's, you know, used to

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Speaker 2: be part of the discussion as a team that's at

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Speaker 2: the favor but not any more, and that's USC. Clay

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Speaker 2: Helton is still there. Why, I don't know, Asfluene Swan,

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Speaker 2: I asked that administration of Clay Hilton. But us see

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Speaker 2: a win total seven over seven minus one twenty. They're

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Speaker 2: eighth to one to win the Pac twelve. Very difficult schedules.

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Speaker 2: One of the first things that when I looked at this,

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Speaker 2: I mean they start off with Fresno and then Stanford

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Speaker 2: and then at BYU and then Utah and then at Washington,

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Speaker 2: by at Notre Dame. I mean, it doesn't get more

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Speaker 2: brutal than that right off the bat. The question is

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Speaker 2: with their offense. Last year, the offensive line was an

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Speaker 2: absolute mess and they lost their two best but you

362
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Speaker 2: know they're going to be They have a new scheme

363
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Speaker 2: this year, so you know they have Graham Harrow coming

364
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Speaker 2: in to run the air raids and you know, with

365
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Speaker 2: a new scheme wide or splits new blood in their

366
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Speaker 2: at offensive line, maybe it's an improvement. The question comes

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Speaker 2: down to quarterback play. Then JT. Daniels. Is he going

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Speaker 2: to get the job? I assume yes, But there's some

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Speaker 2: more other mobile options with Fink and Sears who potentially

370
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Speaker 2: could challenge Daniels in this new system. Their receivers are great. Look,

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Speaker 2: their receivers are the best, I think, best group in

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Speaker 2: the Pac twelve. But you know the running back is

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Speaker 2: solid as well. And then on the defensive side, of

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Speaker 2: the ball. You know, secondary is really really young. They

375
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Speaker 2: lost Porter Gustin and camp Smith and linebacker. The defensive

376
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Speaker 2: line has a lot of potential to move to a

377
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Speaker 2: four man front there. Freshman Drake Jackson could be a

378
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Speaker 2: potential first round draft pick, and Ja Twofele he's a

379
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Speaker 2: potential first rounder as well. So the defensive line has

380
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Speaker 2: a ton of tuch. But there's questions in the backside

381
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Speaker 2: of that defense. So a lot of changes with USC

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Speaker 2: except Clay Helton, which is the one. I think they

383
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Speaker 2: needed to make schedules really hard. I think there's a

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Speaker 2: bump for their name. I think here, if I had

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Speaker 2: to bet this, I'm going under. What are your thoughts

386
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Speaker 2: on USC?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's definitely an under. I'm at six point one.

388
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Speaker 3: It's the numbers now at seven. I think it opened

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Speaker 3: up eight in some places, and I took some unders,

390
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Speaker 3: you know, seven and a half took some under. I

391
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Speaker 3: still take some under at seven. The one change that

392
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Speaker 3: they didn't make either is they didn't fire Klan sky Pendergas.

393
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Speaker 3: He was a defensive coordinator for USC, and the numbers

394
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Speaker 3: just keep getting worse and worse and worse on defense.

395
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Speaker 3: Last year, Trojan's finished ninetieth and defensive isoppp They lost

396
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Speaker 3: five of their last six games, they didn't go to

397
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Speaker 3: a bowl. They continue to get worse on defense as

398
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Speaker 3: far as allowing explosive plays, whether it's through the air,

399
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Speaker 3: on the ground, they're passing downs SMP plusers down to

400
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Speaker 3: seventy fourth, you can you can get them when it's

401
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Speaker 3: third down situations. It's just that I think that was

402
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Speaker 3: the name. Clancy Pendergass was the one that the fans

403
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Speaker 3: and most of you know, the fan base and the

404
00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:19,719
Speaker 3: media thought that was going to get the acts and

405
00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:21,960
Speaker 3: nothing happened. So it was quite as struck there as

406
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Speaker 3: far as offense, So let's go dig into Graham Harrow

407
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Speaker 3: a little bit because he's the offensive coordinator at North

408
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Speaker 3: Texas the past couple of years. And while people think

409
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Speaker 3: that that's, you know, an extremely good offense, especially on

410
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Speaker 3: the G five level, he is, but he's not an

411
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Speaker 3: explosive of offensive coordinator whatsoever. Now he's extremely efficient, but

412
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Speaker 3: Mason Fine is not a quarterback that takes shots fifty

413
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Speaker 3: sixty yards down the field. He's the kind of guy

414
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Speaker 3: that can move the chains multiple times before they get

415
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Speaker 3: into the red zone. I think the one thing that

416
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Speaker 3: I'm going to be watching out for. And you're right

417
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Speaker 3: about JT. Daniels. He hasn't even won the job. You know,

418
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Speaker 3: he was ranking in the fifties and in both you know,

419
00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,720
Speaker 3: explosiveness and efficiency last year. So we'll see if we'll

420
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Speaker 3: see if Graham Harrow can have any kind of change

421
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Speaker 3: on that. There's one stat that is just kind of

422
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Speaker 3: blew my mind with all of this is that is

423
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Speaker 3: what's going on in passing downs run rate. So passing

424
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,520
Speaker 3: down's run rate is how many times do you run

425
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Speaker 3: when you're in a passing down situation, say, if you're

426
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Speaker 3: in like second and twelve, or if you're at third

427
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Speaker 3: and nine, how many times are you running the ball?

428
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Speaker 3: Crazy enough, USC ranks one hundred and eighteen. North Texas

429
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:22,560
Speaker 3: under Graham Harrald was ninth in that stat, which tells

430
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Speaker 3: me that anytime that they got the chance to run

431
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Speaker 3: the ball on third and long, they were doing it.

432
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:28,800
Speaker 3: So I found that stat very interesting. Is that how

433
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,760
Speaker 3: much is that going to change, especially with JT. Daniels stats.

434
00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:33,159
Speaker 3: Are they going to go down if they prefer if

435
00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 3: they elect to run more in third and long situations?

436
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 3: So it's definitely something to Watch. Like you mentioned, schedules brutal.

437
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,639
Speaker 3: They only have one bye week. They'll play after Thanksgiving.

438
00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,440
Speaker 3: If they potentially made it back to all the championship game,

439
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:47,679
Speaker 3: they would have a bye week, but I seriously doubt that,

440
00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:50,000
Speaker 3: So they just have one bye week. They got a

441
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,960
Speaker 3: stretch of at BYU then Utah on a Friday night,

442
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,960
Speaker 3: so they play Utah six days after they play at BYU.

443
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,280
Speaker 3: It's going to be rough, and then they go at Washington.

444
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,200
Speaker 3: That's all just in the month of September. To close

445
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 3: the season. They have four road games in six weeks,

446
00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:05,480
Speaker 3: and after that by a week, and then that also

447
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:08,080
Speaker 3: includes going out to Notre Dame. So the schedules brutal.

448
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,240
Speaker 3: The defense isn't getting any better. I think the changes

449
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:11,840
Speaker 3: they made on offense are gonna help, but I don't

450
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 3: think it's going to be enough.

451
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:14,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, I think the format front with

452
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,040
Speaker 2: their defensive line can help against the run. I mean,

453
00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:19,439
Speaker 2: they were bad against everything last year. But can they

454
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:21,880
Speaker 2: generate pressure on the quarterback? I don't know. I don't

455
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 2: think so, And especially with their losses in linebacker and

456
00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 2: then they're so young in the secondary, I still have

457
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 2: questions about the defense. Their offense. Look, it's going to

458
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,920
Speaker 2: go down to the offensive line, but with a air

459
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:36,240
Speaker 2: raid attack with those receivers, you know, Saint Brown, Michael Pittman,

460
00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 2: Vaughn's and they obviously have a ton of young talent.

461
00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,639
Speaker 2: They've recruit receivers as well as anyone out there on

462
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 2: the West coast. But you know there's questions about JT.

463
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 2: Daniels and that offensive line. So you know with this schedule, yeah,

464
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:52,800
Speaker 2: I think it's it's continued selling of the Trojans. Let's

465
00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,199
Speaker 2: stay out in California in that area and talk about

466
00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 2: UCLA win total six and a half over plus one ten.

467
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 2: They're fourteen to one to win the pat trol if

468
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,400
Speaker 2: you make this six point three. So I'm assuming this

469
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 2: is a completely stay away from the win totals. Look,

470
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:10,680
Speaker 2: this is the second years scheme changes. They were really

471
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 2: young last year. They're gonna be more experienced. That should

472
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 2: help the problem is this schedule is vicious at since

473
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 2: he to start, then San Diego stayed at home, then

474
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:26,800
Speaker 2: Oklahoma at home. That's your UCLA non conference schedule, and

475
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,399
Speaker 2: then they're at Washington State and at Arizona and then

476
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 2: they finally get a breather with Oregon State at home

477
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 2: by at Stanford, schedule is absolutely brutal. There's questions at quarterback. Look,

478
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess there's a high ceiling with Dorian

479
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 2: Thompson Robinson, he's will be starting at quarterback. And last

480
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:44,919
Speaker 2: year was Wilson spite who beat him out, but then

481
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,640
Speaker 2: he got hurt. Then it was Robinson, then he got hurt,

482
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,840
Speaker 2: and then it was fight again. But Robinson he's terribly

483
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 2: inaccurate last year, but he was only a nineteen year

484
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 2: old kid, true freshman. So how much can he improve?

485
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,679
Speaker 2: That's a big question. The offensive line is also a

486
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 2: big question. You know, they got Boss tagal Low at center,

487
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 2: this freshman stud left tackle Sean Ryan. He could be

488
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:07,879
Speaker 2: very good, but there's still questions about the offensive line.

489
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 2: Theo Howard, a receiver, has potential. It's still a young

490
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 2: team overall. And you know, on defense, can they get

491
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 2: a pass rush? Just like USC, it was just non existent.

492
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 2: They had no edge rush. I don't see much of

493
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,680
Speaker 2: it this year. Josh Kelly on the offensive side solid

494
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:24,439
Speaker 2: at running back. He can run the ball. I mean,

495
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:26,639
Speaker 2: Chip wants to spread it and run it. But you

496
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,159
Speaker 2: know it's they got to replace Caleb Wilson to the

497
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 2: top receiving tight end in football last year, and Asiassi's

498
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:34,959
Speaker 2: a stud and he could be really good at tight end.

499
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 2: But replacing Wilson is not going to be easy. So

500
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:40,119
Speaker 2: there's still a lot of questions with this team. Five

501
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:43,160
Speaker 2: road games in the Pac twelve and that non conference schedule,

502
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 2: it's a lot to ask for a young team. Their secondary.

503
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:48,880
Speaker 2: I like some of their pieces with Holmes, who's also

504
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,159
Speaker 2: a returnment, and Lake at safety, but again there's no

505
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,359
Speaker 2: seniors in the secondary. Getting back to that youth point.

506
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 2: And UCLA, who we sets five Pac twelve road games,

507
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 2: they're one in fourteen in their last fifteen games away

508
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 2: from the Rose Bowl. You know, with UCLA at six

509
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 2: and a half, I'd have to lean under. But the

510
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 2: total looks about right. What are your thoughts here? Yeah?

511
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,680
Speaker 3: Young is it? I read that there are going to

512
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 3: be forty two freshmen. Forty two freshmen on this roster

513
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,440
Speaker 3: as camp Briggs, That's that's a really large amount that

514
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 3: sounds I mean, Chip Kelly is still looking for his guys,

515
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,919
Speaker 3: his studs, his horses. I don't think he really knows

516
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,119
Speaker 3: of Dorian Compson Robinson, who is the guy he seeked

517
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,200
Speaker 3: out in recruiting. Last year, second Ship Kelly took the job.

518
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,120
Speaker 3: That's the guy he went out and got. And last

519
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 3: year he had just a fifty seven completion rate. He

520
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 3: was sacked in nine percent of his dropbacks. Now, I

521
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 3: mean he's a true freshman. He's kind of thrown to

522
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 3: the wolves. So I mean, we'll have to see if

523
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 3: there's improvement this year. He was good in play action passing,

524
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 3: but he's just not the Marcus Marioto comparisons when it

525
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 3: comes to running the ball. That's not I don't think.

526
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 3: I think Chip Kelly got what he wanted as far

527
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:47,639
Speaker 3: as it comes to being a dual threat. You know,

528
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 3: the defense was one hundred and eighteenth in success rate.

529
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 3: They just could not get people off the field whatsoever.

530
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 3: Anybody can move the chains against these guys. It's a team.

531
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,240
Speaker 3: I'm not touching the wind total because you know, I've

532
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,440
Speaker 3: got him at six point three. It's at six and

533
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 3: a half with the juice under minus one thirty I

534
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,880
Speaker 3: think at Westgate. So it's I don't know when I'm

535
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:06,880
Speaker 3: going to play these teams, when I'm gonna hop onto

536
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 3: these guys, But I just think it's more of a

537
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 3: sit back and collect data on UCLA until Chip identifies

538
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 3: the guys that he wants to really compete with.

539
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, if you're a UCLA fan looking

540
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,640
Speaker 2: for an optimistic view, I mean it's Thompson Robinson takes

541
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,479
Speaker 2: a huge step forward. Apparently he's lost some weight so

542
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 2: he can run more, and they're going to be running more,

543
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 2: you know, zone read options. So it's that's the hope.

544
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 2: There's how much can Thompson Robinson's production and accuracy in

545
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 2: particular improve in his second year. But you're right, the

546
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 2: schedule is brutal. Now, if they do show signs of improvement,

547
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,439
Speaker 2: they do have to go to Stanford and to Utah.

548
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 2: But the good thing is they have bye weeks before

549
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 2: both of those games. So maybe those are spots, you know,

550
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 2: in mid October and mid November that we look to.

551
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 2: But more on that later. Let's now move to the

552
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 2: final team in the South, and that is a team

553
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 2: that we have long been in love with. Their odds

554
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 2: have moved significantly, and that's the Utah Utes. Open ten

555
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 2: to one to win the pack twelve at some places,

556
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 2: now down to three to one, which is where you'll

557
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 2: also find a few other teams, but none in the South.

558
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 2: You'll find those teams in the North, Oregon, Washington. We'll

559
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 2: get to those teams. This team is absolutely loaded. I

560
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 2: think when you talk Utah you have to start with

561
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 2: the defense. I think the defense has potential to be

562
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 2: one of the best in the country. You know, they

563
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 2: did lose two key linebackers and Chase Hansen and Cody

564
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,679
Speaker 2: Barton and also All Conference safety Marquise Blair, but the

565
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 2: secondary is going to be fine. Blackman and Johnson. I mean,

566
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 2: Jalen Johnson's one of the best defensive backs in the nation.

567
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 2: You know. The offense also gets back it's two best

568
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 2: players from injury and Tyler Huntley and Zach Moss their

569
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 2: quarterback and running back. And you know I did say

570
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,119
Speaker 2: they meant they lost two linebackers, but they brought in

571
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,719
Speaker 2: Manny Bowen from Penn State at linebacker. Their defensive tackle

572
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,880
Speaker 2: position is loaded and so deep. I mean, this defense

573
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 2: is really good and they get Huntley and Moss back.

574
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 2: One thing I'll mention first special teams mentioned of the podcast.

575
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 2: First of many of the year. They did lose kicker

576
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 2: Matt Gay. You know, he's a former lou Grose Award winner,

577
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:11,679
Speaker 2: and there's big question the marks about who's going to

578
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 2: replace him. And there's usually no question marks about Utah

579
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 2: special teams, but the kicker that could become an issue

580
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 2: in Utah, so keep your eye out there. They do

581
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 2: start at BYU before the schedule their non conference eases

582
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,159
Speaker 2: up with Northern Illinois and Idaho State. But I mean

583
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,680
Speaker 2: that game, you know, the win total of nine over

584
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 2: nine minus one thirty three to one to win the

585
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:33,639
Speaker 2: PAC twelve. That game at UO, you could go a

586
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 2: long way and determining if Utah gets a ten wins

587
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,640
Speaker 2: or not. I like the over nine. I like them

588
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 2: twelve to one to get to the playoff three to one.

589
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 2: I still think that there's some value to win the

590
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 2: Pac twelve just because the South is so weak. Obviously

591
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 2: it's not as good as ten to one. But I

592
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 2: love this team and think there's big things ahead for Utah,

593
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 2: who also has a favorable schedule overall. What are your

594
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 2: thoughts on Utah?

595
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 3: The big games on the schedule are at BUYU, at Washington,

596
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,439
Speaker 3: at USC. That's what's standing in between them, and they

597
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 3: got to win two of those three. I'm at nine

598
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 3: point five. I have high aspirations for these guys, you know,

599
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:07,920
Speaker 3: going to the to the college football playoff. So I'm

600
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 3: not gonna, you know, sit here and repeat everything and

601
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 3: stuff because I agree with all of it. The ten

602
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 3: to one, I'm sorry, twelve to one to make the playoff.

603
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:16,919
Speaker 3: The Pac twelve was ten to one. It's down to

604
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 3: three to one. That's exactly the same price that you

605
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 3: would need if you're going to parlay Washington and USC.

606
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 3: You know their twenty first and returning production. If I

607
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 3: give you some you know, some stats that you may

608
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 3: not see that you know at other places. You know,

609
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 3: Bradley and A returns on the edge rusher. He accounted

610
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 3: for eleven percent of the team's total havoc last year.

611
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 3: That's extremely impressive. Linebacker Manny Bowen transfers in from Penn State,

612
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 3: so it's going to be kind of thin and linebacker,

613
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 3: but they picked up a guy from Penn State that

614
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:46,400
Speaker 3: could be All Pack twelve honors. Julian Blackman and Javeline

615
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 3: Gidry are going to be the secondary. They may not

616
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 3: be the top tacklers that return in the secondary, but

617
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 3: they combined for nineteen pass breakups last year. This this

618
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 3: team is is so fantastic the defense could play in

619
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 3: the SEC. That's how good they are. And so I

620
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,640
Speaker 3: was going to talk about, you know, how how Utah

621
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:02,680
Speaker 3: goes with special teams. And I'm glad that you went

622
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:05,160
Speaker 3: down the kicking route because I actually took notes on

623
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 3: the punting route, which is they went and got they

624
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 3: went and got a guy Aussie rules football named Ben Lennon.

625
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 3: He's going to be a freshman. Although he played four

626
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 3: years in Ossee football. He was one of the best,

627
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 3: you know, one of those players that they had downe there.

628
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 3: He played for the Richmond Tigers. Star of the Pride.

629
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 3: He was named as the Rising Star in twenty fifteen.

630
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 3: So look out for Ben Lennon, our OSSI punter who

631
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 3: has tons of experience in the Aussie Rules Football League

632
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 3: as a rising star and as their punter. So love

633
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 3: Utah every single way. There's no way I'm fading these guys.

634
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 3: I will say that as of today, that number that

635
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 3: BYU Utah number I was looking to get BYU at seven.

636
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 3: I was willing to let it sit. Sugarhouse up in

637
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 3: Pennsylvania they have it at six and a half. But

638
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 3: some of the offshores and one of the Vegas books

639
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 3: today took it down to five. So I was hoping

640
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 3: that there would be enough Utah Love Blind Love in

641
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 3: the market to get that number up to seven. That's

642
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 3: the Holy War, that's a huge rival. Game. Seven is

643
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 3: a ton of points, so I was waiting for it

644
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 3: to get there. But it looks like that got nipped

645
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 3: in the button got down to five. So it's some

646
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 3: probably gonna be on BYU that game if you're looking

647
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 3: ahead to week one.

648
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 2: All right, so now let's move on to the PAC

649
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 2: twelve North, which is definitely not as straightforward as the South,

650
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,719
Speaker 2: where we both agree it's Utah and then you know

651
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 2: it's a big conglomerate of eh, we can go either

652
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 2: way with these teams, so Utah is a clear favorite there.

653
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 2: In the South, you know, you have Washington and Oregon,

654
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 2: who are both three to one to win the conference,

655
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 2: so you know, obviously this could really go either way.

656
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 2: You also have Stanford in there, but you know, the

657
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 2: North looks like it's going to be much more competitive.

658
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 2: Washington State also, so let's start there with Washington State,

659
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 2: a team that can't seem to be Washington to be

660
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 2: quite frank to get over that hump, but they surprised

661
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 2: a lot a lot of people last year with quarterback Minshew,

662
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 2: and they almost got to the Pac twelve championship game.

663
00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 2: They were in a discussion for the College twaeld playoff

664
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 2: for most of the year. Well, Minshew is gone at quarterback,

665
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 2: but Leech dipped back into the transfer market and got

666
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 2: another quarterback, this time from the FCS level, and he

667
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 2: brought in former Eastern Washington quarterback. And I just want

668
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 2: to make sure that I don't get his name wrong.

669
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 2: Gauge Goubrud. I think that's how you bround it. I

670
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 2: always say goobru or goog, but I think it's Gauge Goubrud.

671
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 3: Anytime you get to us on a name, it could

672
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 3: be it could be brutal.

673
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's Gauge Goober. But he's twenty four

674
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 2: years old. He was at Eastern Washington. He only played

675
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 2: five games last year, which is one third of their

676
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 2: fifteen games since they went to the playoffs. And if

677
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 2: he played one third or less, then he was able

678
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 2: to get another year of eligibility, which is why he's here.

679
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:44,719
Speaker 2: You know. Obviously, Washington State runs the air raid offense.

680
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 2: They have seven of their top eight receivers back. They

681
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 2: did lose tackle Andre Dillard, but they got four of

682
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 2: their five offense a lineman back. They lost running back

683
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 2: James Williams, but they got They still have Borgie at

684
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 2: running back, so I think they'll be fine in that department.

685
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 2: The question is that, you know, like any air raid offense,

686
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 2: it comes down to the quarterback. I actually have questions

687
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 2: about Goobrued. You know he was in twoenty sixteen. I

688
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 2: mean he was unbelievable at Eastern Washington. He completed sixty

689
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 2: eight percent of his passes forever five thousand yards, nine yards,

690
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 2: pert tempt forty eight touchdowns, fourteen picks. In that season,

691
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 2: Eastern Washington went to Pullman and beat Washington State forty

692
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 2: five forty two. Gouberd was thirty four or forty for

693
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 2: four hundred and seventy four yards and five touchdowns. But

694
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 2: do you know who we had on that team? Cooper Cup.

695
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 2: Cooper Cup in that game of twelve catches for two

696
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 2: hundred and six yards and three touchdowns. So you know,

697
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 2: he obviously had an NFL caliber starting receiver on his

698
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 2: team and it was just ripping up the FCS level.

699
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 2: Then his production really dropped the following year in twenty seventeen,

700
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 2: it's only twenty six touchdowns and twelve picks, and then

701
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 2: in five games last year, thirteen touchdowns and five picks.

702
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: So I think that there's some accuracy question marks at

703
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 2: this level. You know that they do have two seniors

704
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 2: that all also are on the quarterback depth chart, but

705
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:04,719
Speaker 2: I think the quarterback play is going to take a

706
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 2: step back. He does have an NFL arm. But I

707
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 2: have more questions than many others I've heard who think

708
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 2: that Goober's just going to come in like Minshew did

709
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 2: and then this offense is going to be off and running.

710
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 2: The defense has been improving and I think it will again,

711
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 2: but I have some questions about watching. To say, over

712
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 2: on their win total is eight, they're eight to one

713
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 2: to win the Pac twelve. You make their win total

714
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 2: seven point seven. What are your thoughts here on the KuPS.

715
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, seven point seven with a win total of eight,

716
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 3: So I'm not going to have a play on them

717
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 3: over or under, and I'm not going to take them

718
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 3: to win the conference or even win the North. You know, gamblers,

719
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 3: they've already made up their mind on who's going to

720
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 3: be the starter for this team. Goubru'd opened up at

721
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 3: minus one ten a couple of days ago, and he

722
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 3: moved to minus two fifty real quick. I think within

723
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 3: twelve hours he had already shot up as the person

724
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 3: that's going to be the starting quarterback for week one.

725
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 3: You know, they bring back a ton of receiving targets,

726
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 3: a whole bunch of offensive line, but they're extremely thin

727
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 3: in the secondary. Being thin in the secondary is going

728
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 3: to get you in trouble in some games. And look

729
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 3: at that Week three, they're going up against Houston. I

730
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 3: don't care what the total is. There may be one

731
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty points in that game between Washington State

732
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 3: and Houston. So be looking at for that.

733
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 2: Well, that is a neutral game, but it's in an

734
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 2: energy stadium in Houston.

735
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, but it's going to be a fast track and

736
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 3: that that balls. I mean, one hundred and fifty points,

737
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 3: I'm not lying up. At least a live total should

738
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 3: ge up to one hundred and fifty at some point

739
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 3: before everybody's gassed out. You know, they just have four

740
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 3: PAC twelve home games, and they have a brutal road

741
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 3: schedule within the conference, which means they have to go

742
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 3: to Utah and then Oregon and Washington. And the problem

743
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 3: with Washington is, you know, the defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake

744
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 3: for the Huskies, he came out after they beat Washington

745
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 3: State last year and he said they're easy to prepare

746
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 3: for it. They do the same thing every year, And

747
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 3: I mean that was I'm not sure he meant to

748
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 3: say it the way that he did after the game.

749
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 3: But you know, Washington State, as long as they're under

750
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 3: Mike Leach and as long as they're running the same

751
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 3: system on offense every single time, it's going to be

752
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 3: easy for defensive coordinators like Jimmy Lake to prepare for

753
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 3: that and to shut it down. So it's gonna be

754
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 3: hard for me to ever take them to win the

755
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 3: North or to win the Pac twelve. And this year

756
00:33:57,360 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 3: I'm going to take a pass on their win total.

757
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 2: I agree win total looks about right. That Houston game

758
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 2: will go a long way and determining it. And if

759
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 2: you assume, you know, they're not gonna win out Washington,

760
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 2: you know at Oregon's tough at Utah, you know, it

761
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:13,399
Speaker 2: looks about right for them right at seven A team

762
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 2: you mentioned, Let's stay in the state of Washington and

763
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,799
Speaker 2: their Apple Cup rival the Huskies who have owned that

764
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:24,080
Speaker 2: rivalry of late Washington. Look, they lost a ton if

765
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:27,280
Speaker 2: you just look at returning production, especially on the defensive

766
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 2: side of the ball, which was their strength last year.

767
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 2: They only returned two starters. They lost a ton of

768
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 2: guys to the NFL Draft, So you know, there's a

769
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 2: lot of questions in the secondary. Obviously they bring in

770
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 2: a lot of talent, but they losing that much. And

771
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 2: then you know, look they can play Eastern Washington and

772
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:43,879
Speaker 2: we just mentioned them in Hawaii, two explosive offenses early on,

773
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,280
Speaker 2: so maybe one of them can give them a scare,

774
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 2: but there's certainly questions about defense, and they're on offense. Look,

775
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 2: they lost their all time leading passer and they're all

776
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 2: time leading rusher. So yeah, look, they have self talent.

777
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:00,399
Speaker 2: You know, you have Fuller ride receiver, a model solid

778
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,239
Speaker 2: at running back, Hunter Bryant at tight end. But the

779
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:06,720
Speaker 2: question is, you know, their offensive line should be really solid,

780
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 2: and the question is how good can Jake Fromby or

781
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 2: one of the Jakes. So they lost Jake Browning and

782
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 2: then Jacob Easton came in from Georgia who left because

783
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:19,799
Speaker 2: Jacob from won the job. And then Jacob I lose

784
00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 2: track one. But Jacob Easton, who's supposed to be the

785
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 2: starter this year for Washington, he's also competing with Jacob

786
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 2: Paynter and Jacob Sermon. It's just like all Jakes literally,

787
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 2: So the only thing I know is that Washington all

788
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 2: with Jake again at quarterback on special teams. You know,

789
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 2: they do have their kicker and punterback. But that was

790
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,719
Speaker 2: a question mark two. So Washington, that win total of

791
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 2: the nine and a half seems really high. You make

792
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:45,399
Speaker 2: it eight point three. But here's the kicker. I mean,

793
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 2: I will say, which gives me hesitation for going under here.

794
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 2: They do a five home games and their schedule is

795
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 2: really easy. I mean that is what they bet say.

796
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 2: Start Eastern Washington, cal Hawaii at home, and they do

797
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:58,400
Speaker 2: go to BYU. But I mean there are home games

798
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 2: this year. They at Oregon at home and and Utah

799
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 2: at home, which is enormous, and then they have lives

800
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:06,759
Speaker 2: Do at home as well. Their road conference games are Stanford, Arizona,

801
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 2: Oregon State, and Colorado. So the schedule is really easy.

802
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:13,360
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on Chris Peterson and the Huskies.

803
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 3: Well, first off, you got me on a Tangent as

804
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 3: you were sitting there talking. They have Jacob Kaiser at

805
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 3: tight end and they also have a Jacob Bandits at

806
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 3: defensive tackle, both freshmen.

807
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 2: So you know, I just.

808
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:26,359
Speaker 3: Can't get over the number of Jakes on this team.

809
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 2: Perfect It's Jake from State Farm.

810
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 3: So Washington. They had the lowest returning production on defense

811
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 3: in all of the FBS. Let's just get straight to

812
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 3: the point here. Chris Peterson is going to have to

813
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 3: do a ridiculous coaching job because it is a fresh

814
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 3: set of faces everywhere. Jacobson hasn't won the job yet.

815
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 3: I have questions about how good of a college quarterback.

816
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 2: He's going to be.

817
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 3: I mean, couldn't win the job at Georgia, did not

818
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:53,399
Speaker 3: win the job here in the spring game against Hayner,

819
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 3: you know, so there's some questions for me about where

820
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 3: the point's going to come from. Miles Gaskin has gone,

821
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 3: you know. The defense, on the other hand, has been

822
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 3: you know great, has been the MVP for them last

823
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 3: couple of seasons. They've lost everybody over on that side

824
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 3: of the game. The schedule is something that I really

825
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 3: do not like whatsoever. You know, Eastern Washington, if you've

826
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 3: watched any FCS playoff games. They like to put seventy

827
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:15,840
Speaker 3: points up in a flash, so that brand new defense,

828
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:17,800
Speaker 3: brand new faces. They get Eastern Washington right out of

829
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 3: the gate, should be a point spread. It could be

830
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 3: seventeen up to twenty eight. I'm not really sure what's

831
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 3: coming back for Eastern Washington and they don't play any

832
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 3: defense whatsoever. But to expect Washington to win by thirty

833
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:30,800
Speaker 3: five points with a brand new offense, brand new defense

834
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 3: is large. But in the middle of the season, they

835
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 3: go to BYU, which is a very physical and very

836
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:39,399
Speaker 3: brutal game, and after that they play USC, so that

837
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 3: that's gonna be tough sled. I mean, they take any

838
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 3: injuries or they're beat up. You know, they have to

839
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 3: go play USC directly after BYU and then they have

840
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,880
Speaker 3: a really tough you know, they have to go at Stanford.

841
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:52,359
Speaker 3: So it's just not the schedule is easy in terms

842
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:54,800
Speaker 3: of the PAC twelve, you know you do have FCS

843
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 3: Eastern Washington, Hawaii's not considered any good. I'm not backing

844
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 3: this team to win the North. I'm not excited about

845
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 3: Jacobisa on the offensive side, have to replaced everything on

846
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 3: the defensive side, so it's a year that I have

847
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 3: pounded the under ten and it got to it's down

848
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:08,919
Speaker 3: down to nine and a half. I don't think any

849
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 3: tens exists anymore. Nine wins maybe, I mean, I've got

850
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:15,879
Speaker 3: them scheduled. It's eight point three, so I would say

851
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 3: anything nine and a half take it under. I still

852
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 3: approve of that.

853
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, Eastern Washington. You mentioned FCS, I mean that they

854
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 2: will be in the discussion and probably in the playoffs

855
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 2: once again. They have one of the best quarterbacks in

856
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 2: FCS and one of the best offensive lines at the

857
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:32,359
Speaker 2: FCS level. Defense is never great, but the offense will

858
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 2: be explosive once again, and we'll really learn about a

859
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 2: lot about that Washington defense right off the bat on

860
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 2: August thirty. First, you know the schedule. You mentioned a

861
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,919
Speaker 2: couple of tricky spots at BYU can be tricky. Yeah,

862
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 2: I think it's under. You have to go under with

863
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 2: Washington at nine and a half. I think just how

864
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:48,759
Speaker 2: they've been the last couple of years in the name

865
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:50,839
Speaker 2: recognition is playing a lot into it. But then it's

866
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 2: this a team that lost eight players to the NFL Draft.

867
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:56,400
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on in the North and talk

868
00:38:56,560 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 2: about Oregon State. We'll go to the cellar here. This

869
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 2: is a team that won two games last year. Their

870
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 2: defense was absolutely horrifying, one of the worst defenses in

871
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:11,799
Speaker 2: the entire country. I think they were. They gave up

872
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:13,400
Speaker 2: over five hundreyards per game thin They were one hundred

873
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 2: and twenty eighth in the country. Their win total this

874
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:18,360
Speaker 2: season is two and a half. The over is juiced

875
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:21,720
Speaker 2: minus one p fifty. You make this two and a half.

876
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 2: So I think with the plus money you have to

877
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:25,840
Speaker 2: look under, which was my thoughts as well. I mean

878
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 2: I made it right around two and a half as well,

879
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:29,880
Speaker 2: but if I'm getting significant plus money, I have to

880
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 2: I think go under.

881
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 3: Here.

882
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:33,720
Speaker 2: Jake Lutan is back at quarterback. The question is Kenny

883
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,279
Speaker 2: stay healthy. They do have some talent and experience at

884
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 2: the skill positions, you know Jamar Jefferson in particular running back,

885
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 2: but the biggest question is the defense. This team on defense,

886
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 2: I can't even describe how bad they were. They were

887
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:47,880
Speaker 2: the worst Power five defense in the fourteen year history

888
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,479
Speaker 2: of SMV plus. So they weren't Yukon bad, but it's

889
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:54,240
Speaker 2: in Power five terms. They were as bad as it gets.

890
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:56,800
Speaker 2: They only they were the only team to force single

891
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 2: digit turnovers. They also have questions on the offensive line.

892
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 2: So so you know, I don't see how you can

893
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 2: go over two and a half minus one fifty with

894
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 2: the Oregon State Correct me if I'm wrong?

895
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:09,880
Speaker 3: Would you agree here, let's look at the games that

896
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:12,799
Speaker 3: are winnable on the schedule cal Poly. Cal Poly went

897
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,240
Speaker 3: from one to ten to five and six last season.

898
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 3: They return a whole ton on defense, but they don't

899
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 3: have an offensive identity. So the problem with that is

900
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 3: is the strength of this Oregon State team is they're

901
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:26,840
Speaker 3: running back Jamar Jefferson. He returns it running back. He

902
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 3: had twelve tds last year. They actually ranked twentieth and

903
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 3: explosiveness on the ground, which is, you know, impressive considering

904
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:34,960
Speaker 3: the rest of the team is just a dumpster fire

905
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 3: as far as a dumpster fire as far as and

906
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 3: vanced stats go. So you know, they might get stopped

907
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:43,440
Speaker 3: by cal Poly's defense. Cal Poly's defense returns everything. So

908
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:45,839
Speaker 3: if they could get by cal Poly, the winnable games

909
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:47,959
Speaker 3: are at Hawaii, which you know you have to listen

910
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 3: for the Group of five podcasts. I don't think that's

911
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 3: out and at cal now Col's defense, you know, if

912
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:55,320
Speaker 3: cal Poly's defense is going to stop Oregon State. Col's

913
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:57,920
Speaker 3: defense is definitely going to stop Oregon State. So I

914
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 3: think the thing to do is ride this two and.

915
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:01,399
Speaker 2: A half out.

916
00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 3: It's at minus one fifty. I have not actually looked

917
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:05,799
Speaker 3: around to see if the three exists, but if it's

918
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:08,319
Speaker 3: two and a half over minus one fifty, I think

919
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 3: I might search around for a three and see if

920
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 3: I can get a juice three under and kind of

921
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 3: make that get a little degenerate a few hundred bucks,

922
00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 3: pull back the rubber band, throw a couple hundreds down

923
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 3: and ride the fun one on that because they have

924
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 3: one strength and that's the running game. And if a

925
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,919
Speaker 3: team can be ripped up the middle, organ State's gonna

926
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:27,920
Speaker 3: be able to do it. But their defense is god awful.

927
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:32,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's horrifying, and I don't see any fixes this year.

928
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 2: I like your thought process there and waiting to see

929
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:36,279
Speaker 2: if you can get a three, because this team is

930
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 2: not winning four games. It wouldn't surprise me if they

931
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:42,239
Speaker 2: lost at Y and they lost at home to cal Poly,

932
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 2: like it wouldn't shock me.

933
00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 3: Some of you sportsbook guys that are out there listening,

934
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 3: some of you odds makers just for me, post an

935
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:51,279
Speaker 3: Oregon State and Kansas wins under four, like make it

936
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:53,279
Speaker 3: minus one ten. I'll come in and throw some money

937
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 3: on that. I'll have so much fun with that. Kansas

938
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 3: and Oregon State under four. Which side would you be on?

939
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:00,279
Speaker 3: I don't think i'd be on the side. The only

940
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:03,200
Speaker 3: team that's winning three is Oregon State. But in order

941
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 3: to do that, they'd have to win at Hawaii. So

942
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:08,399
Speaker 3: why not just bet them? You know, for whatever reason

943
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 3: you like the Beavers, bet them at Hawaii. They're going

944
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 3: to be you know, one or two point dog or

945
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 3: one or two point favorite, whatever, It'll be around a

946
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 3: coin flip. So if you like them, bet them there.

947
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 3: You'd be able to get Hawaii and plus money in

948
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 3: that game. But you know, then again, Hawaii has to

949
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 3: play Arizona in week zero and then they get two

950
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 3: weeks off to take on Oregon State. So I mean,

951
00:42:25,719 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 3: that's just another knock on Oregon State not getting the

952
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:29,800
Speaker 3: three wins, is it? Hawaii gets two weeks to prepare

953
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:31,360
Speaker 3: for the attack of the Beaves.

954
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:33,759
Speaker 2: Good point, all right, So let's move on to a

955
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 2: team I think we actually might disagree on. Although you

956
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:40,520
Speaker 2: know we've said this before. Collins win total projections. When

957
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:44,319
Speaker 2: I'm project the win totals, it's just a mathematical equation, right.

958
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:46,839
Speaker 2: So if you know a team, if you give them

959
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:49,319
Speaker 2: a sixty percent chance of winning this game, they're going

960
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 2: to get this percent this fraction of a win and

961
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:53,000
Speaker 2: then you add them up. But it doesn't mean that

962
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:54,919
Speaker 2: just because it's lower than the win total, you're gonna

963
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 2: bet the under, or vice versa. There are other factors

964
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:01,240
Speaker 2: that go into it. With Stanford win total is seven,

965
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:03,000
Speaker 2: you make it six points seven, And again it doesn't

966
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 2: necessarily mean you're gonna bet the under. I actually like

967
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 2: the Stanford over. There are a lot of things they

968
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:09,880
Speaker 2: have to get over. But in David Shaw, I trust

969
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 2: to get to eight wins. But if they have kJ

970
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 2: Costello coming back, although there's only four other starters going back.

971
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 2: On offense, they lost a ton of production at receiver.

972
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:20,319
Speaker 2: Our guy that he used to just chuck the ball

973
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:23,719
Speaker 2: up to for those jump balls is gone. But tight

974
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 2: end Kobe Parkinson should be a stud. Their offensive line

975
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:30,440
Speaker 2: is the biggest question, right, so their tackles. If they're healthy,

976
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 2: you're going to be really good. And that's what they

977
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 2: didn't have last Year's healthy tackles, but they have to

978
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:38,279
Speaker 2: replace a lot in the interior. But Costello, I'm a

979
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 2: huge fan of Costello. I think he's going to shoot

980
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 2: up the draft boards, and I think Parkinson is going

981
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:45,959
Speaker 2: to emerge as one of the best tight ends in

982
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:49,399
Speaker 2: all of college football. They also have a special team show.

983
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 2: They have one of the best kickers in the game

984
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 2: in jet Toner. They also have questions on the defense

985
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 2: side of the ball. They lost six starters questions at safety,

986
00:43:57,760 --> 00:43:59,799
Speaker 2: but the defense hasn't been great the last two years.

987
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 2: Recruiting has been strong, so I think there could be

988
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 2: some addition by subtraction there. I actually think the schedule

989
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 2: also isn't easy, but I think they're going to find

990
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 2: a way to get to eight wins. You project six

991
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:15,319
Speaker 2: point seven? Are you going under here? You're staying away

992
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:16,400
Speaker 2: with your thoughts on the Cardinal.

993
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 3: I'm gonna stay away. But if I had to make

994
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 3: a bet, I would go on the under. And you

995
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:22,880
Speaker 3: know this is Tip Drill University. This is one of

996
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 3: the most frustrating teams that we were betting against last

997
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:28,600
Speaker 3: year because they had jj R Seka Whiteside, Caden Smith,

998
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 3: and they had Kolbe Parkinson, Colbe Parkinson is the only

999
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 3: one of those that returns. But I mean, we call

1000
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:35,200
Speaker 3: the team trees, and I've been to Avenue of the Giants,

1001
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:37,359
Speaker 3: and I've seen how big the trees actually are out

1002
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:40,239
Speaker 3: there in northern California. And that's what these guys were

1003
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 3: at tight end, and and kJ Costello was just throwing

1004
00:44:43,160 --> 00:44:45,320
Speaker 3: tip drills all day, throwing up as high as he could.

1005
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 3: These guys would just kind of bounce the ball around

1006
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:49,880
Speaker 3: like Dennis Robin pull in a rebound in nineteen ninety

1007
00:44:49,880 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 3: six and secure it and run down the field. And

1008
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:54,120
Speaker 3: the thing is is those guys were always in man

1009
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:57,239
Speaker 3: coverage because Bryce Love was back there. You know, it

1010
00:44:57,320 --> 00:44:59,360
Speaker 3: hurt as he could be a decoy he had he

1011
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 3: had buming or whatever. Even if he was hot and

1012
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 3: he was healthy and he was running, you had to

1013
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 3: respect Bryce Love and you had to put one on

1014
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 3: one coverage against these guys that were standing six foot seven.

1015
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 3: So they only have Colby Parkinson back and Bryce Love

1016
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:12,440
Speaker 3: is gone, so a little bit of that, you know,

1017
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 3: maybe they can drop defenses, can drop more players back

1018
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,719
Speaker 3: to get into coverage. So but kJ Costello does have

1019
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 3: a big arm, and you know he doesn't have as

1020
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 3: many physically massive targets to throw down field too, So

1021
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 3: that's one thing that I'm looking at with their numbers.

1022
00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 3: They do lose one hundred and nineteen careers starts on

1023
00:45:29,600 --> 00:45:32,600
Speaker 3: the offensive line. That's not a good thing. That's four

1024
00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:36,319
Speaker 3: players that have exited out. The defense is then at

1025
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 3: linebacker and they're then in the secondary, and they've had

1026
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:41,920
Speaker 3: a hard time controlling the trench lately on the defensive

1027
00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:44,360
Speaker 3: side of the ball. So you know, but the defense

1028
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:47,279
Speaker 3: does have Paulson Adabo back. He's a shutdown corner. He

1029
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:50,360
Speaker 3: had nineteen pass breakups all by himself last year. So

1030
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 3: if you have a star wide receiver and nothing else,

1031
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:55,800
Speaker 3: you're gonna get shut down by Stanford in that regard.

1032
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 3: You know the schedule, Stanford goes to USC, then they

1033
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:01,279
Speaker 3: travel all the way over to Florida for like a

1034
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:03,719
Speaker 3: noon kick, and then they come all the way back

1035
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:06,240
Speaker 3: home to play Oregon. So they've got this Central Florida

1036
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:08,440
Speaker 3: sandwich and they play Oregon State off of bye. I

1037
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:10,439
Speaker 3: don't think Stanford's going to show up for that game

1038
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 3: at Central Florida whatsoever. And I can already hear the

1039
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 3: narrative in November with everybody you know on the TV

1040
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:20,239
Speaker 3: shoving down my throat that Central Florida's you know, beat Stanford,

1041
00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 3: beat Stanford, such a perfect spot. But you know, two

1042
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:25,120
Speaker 3: of the two of the four PAC twelve road games

1043
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 3: that they have, or Oregon State in Colorado, you know,

1044
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 3: and then Washington, Oregon come to Palo Alto.

1045
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 2: So there's a.

1046
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:32,120
Speaker 3: Lot of good things about this team, and there's a

1047
00:46:32,120 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 3: lot of bad things about the at least negative things

1048
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:36,400
Speaker 3: I should say for the team. I mean, losing the

1049
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 3: amount of size that they have at wide receiver, and

1050
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:40,800
Speaker 3: then those guys were always in one on one coverage

1051
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:43,920
Speaker 3: with Bryce Love in the backfield. So it's gonna be

1052
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 3: a different Stanford team. So I'm still gonna, you know,

1053
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 3: still gonna hold jury here and watch the first few games.

1054
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 3: But I fully expect them, you know, in a look

1055
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:52,240
Speaker 3: a headline, fully expect them to lose the Central Florida

1056
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 3: because they're not going to care one last thing. David

1057
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:59,400
Speaker 3: Shaw cares about PAC twelve play. In the last four years,

1058
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 3: He's twenty four and eleven against the spread against the

1059
00:47:02,239 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 3: PAC twelve. So while he may lose Central Florida and

1060
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:07,319
Speaker 3: it may be ugly, he very much preps and gets

1061
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:09,959
Speaker 3: them prepared and has a fantastic against the spread record

1062
00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:12,400
Speaker 3: against the Pac twelve over the past four years.

1063
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 2: I know that Love, they lost Love, but what did

1064
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:17,239
Speaker 2: he do last year? Nothing? Nothing. They couldn't move the

1065
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 2: ball on the ground, and they did lose a ton

1066
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:22,880
Speaker 2: of their interior offensive line, you know, Jesse Burkett at center,

1067
00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:24,960
Speaker 2: which was big, and they lost their guards and they

1068
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:28,280
Speaker 2: lost a ton of starts. But they're getting too excellent

1069
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:33,800
Speaker 2: tackles back Walker Little and Foster Sarah on the right side,

1070
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:36,840
Speaker 2: who red shirted, So I think they're actually going to

1071
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:38,960
Speaker 2: be able to run the ball better, even though they

1072
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:42,080
Speaker 2: lost all these interior alignment and they lost Love at

1073
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 2: running back. So I'm actually higher on the Stanford offense,

1074
00:47:46,200 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 2: and I think the market it's not a win total

1075
00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:51,719
Speaker 2: on rushing to bet because you know, as you said,

1076
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 2: at USC and then at UCF and their home at

1077
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 2: Notre Dame that close out the year. So I mean

1078
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 2: those three games are going to go a long way,

1079
00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 2: and I'm assuming they beat Northwestern and one at home,

1080
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 2: but it's Northwestern, so who knows. I do have some

1081
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 2: small money on over seven. I just trust David Joan

1082
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:10,400
Speaker 2: like you said they only have four road games in conference.

1083
00:48:11,080 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 2: They do host Oregon and Washington. By the way, they

1084
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:17,799
Speaker 2: host Oregon and Washington September first, in October fifth. We're

1085
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:19,480
Speaker 2: gonna have to bet this. We're gonna have to hold

1086
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:21,880
Speaker 2: our noses when they're at Oregon State. We mentioned Oregon

1087
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:24,360
Speaker 2: States off a bye, and that game is sandwiched in

1088
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:27,360
Speaker 2: between Oregon and Washington, and that Oregon game will be

1089
00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:30,400
Speaker 2: after they went to UCF. So Stanford going up to

1090
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:34,240
Speaker 2: Oregon State off a bye with Washington on deck at home,

1091
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:36,319
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a spot I think we have to

1092
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 2: take a long, hard look at.

1093
00:48:38,440 --> 00:48:40,719
Speaker 3: It's gonna be one of those Saturday Morning specials where

1094
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:43,080
Speaker 3: we wait for a number to run by, like seven points,

1095
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:45,960
Speaker 3: because you know, Floyd Mayweather went in and slams Deadford.

1096
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:51,480
Speaker 2: Ye all right, So moving on in the PAC twelve North,

1097
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 2: a team we haven't talked about that we've mentioned a

1098
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 2: couple of times is Oregon. I was actually surprised to

1099
00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 2: see before I dug into their schedule, your win total

1100
00:48:59,719 --> 00:49:01,960
Speaker 2: was seven point eight Before I started taking into the

1101
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:04,960
Speaker 2: PAC twelve, I figured that your number would be higher.

1102
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:07,319
Speaker 2: Their win totals over eight and a half minus one

1103
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:09,840
Speaker 2: sixty mentioned before the three to one to win the

1104
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 2: Pack twelve. This team. The first thing, you know, obviously

1105
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:15,719
Speaker 2: that Justin Herbert back quarterback, could have been you know,

1106
00:49:15,760 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 2: a top ten, top five, even the first overall pick

1107
00:49:18,160 --> 00:49:21,960
Speaker 2: last year quarterback. He's back. They did lose Dylan Mitchell,

1108
00:49:22,080 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 2: that receiver you know, close to twelve hundred yards last year,

1109
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:28,000
Speaker 2: but drops were a huge issue. You know, you might

1110
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:29,879
Speaker 2: look at the numbers and say Erbert out a terrible year,

1111
00:49:29,880 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 2: but his receivers were awful. But a lot of them

1112
00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 2: come back. Besides Mitchell, Johnny Johnson, Brennan schooler. They did

1113
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:38,360
Speaker 2: bring in Juwan Johnson transfer from ben State, but he

1114
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:41,359
Speaker 2: had drop issues too. So the question is can their

1115
00:49:41,400 --> 00:49:43,919
Speaker 2: receivers step up and take that next step this year.

1116
00:49:44,160 --> 00:49:46,319
Speaker 2: They're going to be solid at running back. They got

1117
00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:48,839
Speaker 2: you know, two sophomores who were playing as freshmen last

1118
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:51,240
Speaker 2: year in Verdell and die so they're both well suited

1119
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 2: for their pistol offense. But the one thing I haven't

1120
00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:56,279
Speaker 2: mentioned it is the offensive line, which is outrageous. It's

1121
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:59,120
Speaker 2: the most experienced offensive line in college football. You know,

1122
00:49:59,200 --> 00:50:02,120
Speaker 2: you could put actually have you know, five all Pack

1123
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:05,240
Speaker 2: twelve guys on that offensive line, and then the defensive side.

1124
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:07,719
Speaker 2: They have a new defensive coordinator who they brought in

1125
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 2: from Boys. Ei're going to play a more aggressive style.

1126
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:13,279
Speaker 2: It's a great secondary. Even with the Amadi loss at

1127
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 2: the nickel spot. There are still questions about the special teams.

1128
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:19,480
Speaker 2: I will say that they're freshman Lewis. He might be

1129
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:22,799
Speaker 2: either kicker and the punter. They lost both of their returners,

1130
00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:26,200
Speaker 2: so the special teams, you know, are questionable. But I

1131
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 2: love the offensive line. So I was loving Oregon and

1132
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 2: then I get to their schedule, and their schedule is brutal.

1133
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:34,840
Speaker 2: They do Nevada Montana at home in the non commich

1134
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:36,879
Speaker 2: or two wins, and they go to Stanford, which is tough.

1135
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:39,319
Speaker 2: Then they get cal and Colorado at home. But they're

1136
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 2: going to Washington, and they're going to USC a late

1137
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:45,800
Speaker 2: season November twenty third trip to Tempe. That's never easy.

1138
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 2: But it all comes down to the first game of

1139
00:50:47,520 --> 00:50:50,400
Speaker 2: the year against Auburn in Arlington. And if you like

1140
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:54,840
Speaker 2: Oregon futures, if you like the Oregon win total, a

1141
00:50:54,880 --> 00:50:56,279
Speaker 2: lot of that is going to come down to that

1142
00:50:56,400 --> 00:51:00,160
Speaker 2: Auburn game. So if you like Oregon's win total at

1143
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 2: my over eight and a half minus one sixty. Now

1144
00:51:02,680 --> 00:51:05,080
Speaker 2: it's basically nine. I think they get the ten wins,

1145
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 2: and I don't think they're going to sweep bat Washington

1146
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 2: and at Stanford. The potential is high, but it all

1147
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:12,360
Speaker 2: comes down. I think that Auburn game is going to

1148
00:51:12,440 --> 00:51:14,280
Speaker 2: set the tone for this Oregon team. What are your thoughts?

1149
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:16,680
Speaker 3: You're right, the potential is very high, and there are

1150
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:18,319
Speaker 3: a ton of things about this Oregon team to fall

1151
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:20,600
Speaker 3: in love with, but there were two. There were two

1152
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:22,680
Speaker 3: things that I did not love, and one was the

1153
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:25,200
Speaker 3: schedule and the second was getting off on the right

1154
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:27,279
Speaker 3: foot with the new defensive coordinator. So let's go ahead

1155
00:51:27,280 --> 00:51:29,240
Speaker 3: and look at them. You know, they're thirty second overall

1156
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:32,040
Speaker 3: and returning production. They have every offensive line coming back.

1157
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:35,120
Speaker 3: Every offensive lineman that started in twenty eighteen is coming back.

1158
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:37,640
Speaker 3: That's seven different players, so seven different starters coming back.

1159
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:40,960
Speaker 3: They're very deep, and they get probably arguably the best

1160
00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 3: defensive line in the country against Auburn in Game one.

1161
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:45,920
Speaker 3: So that's just going to be a huge battle that

1162
00:51:46,080 --> 00:51:48,359
Speaker 3: I've already taken part of. In the Action Network cap,

1163
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:50,080
Speaker 3: you guys can check out that and see which side.

1164
00:51:50,080 --> 00:51:52,319
Speaker 3: I'm on, I placed that bet earlier this season. As

1165
00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:54,000
Speaker 3: far as the new defensive coordinator, it's going to be

1166
00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 3: Andy Abolos. He comes in from Boise State, so, you know,

1167
00:51:56,760 --> 00:52:00,120
Speaker 3: highly touted defensive coordinator Jim Livett, who was being paid

1168
00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:01,799
Speaker 3: a bunch of money to stay at Oregon and not

1169
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:04,200
Speaker 3: go to Florida State, but really taggered. He came to

1170
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 3: a decision to leave his position, and that was I

1171
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 3: think right in the middle right after I think signing day,

1172
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:11,400
Speaker 3: so I think it was around February. But you know,

1173
00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:13,200
Speaker 3: it's kind of an out of the blue decision. I

1174
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:15,040
Speaker 3: think Levitt was really kind of wanting to be the

1175
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:17,600
Speaker 3: head coach there at Oregon and then they went with

1176
00:52:17,640 --> 00:52:19,399
Speaker 3: Crystal Ball instead, and I just don't think they ever

1177
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:22,000
Speaker 3: got along. But I mean that's just, you know, that's

1178
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:24,040
Speaker 3: just be speculating about why a coach would leave, you know,

1179
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:26,719
Speaker 3: potentially after signing day and after everything's been done with

1180
00:52:26,760 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 3: the season and right before spring practice. So Andy Abolos,

1181
00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:32,000
Speaker 3: you know, just drove over from Boise He was living

1182
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:34,719
Speaker 3: in a hotel and left his family for about two

1183
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:38,120
Speaker 3: months to get practices up and geared. But you know,

1184
00:52:38,120 --> 00:52:39,920
Speaker 3: we assume he settled in. They both run a three

1185
00:52:40,040 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 3: four base, so schematically, Jim Levitt Andy Ablos run a

1186
00:52:43,239 --> 00:52:46,719
Speaker 3: three four space. But but Andy Avolos has this crazy

1187
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 3: hybrid stud in position that they can change him from a.

1188
00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:52,440
Speaker 2: Three to four to a four to three.

1189
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:55,320
Speaker 3: It can change him into multiple looks as mar factor

1190
00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:58,440
Speaker 3: Christobal said, he'll use two or one defensive linemen in

1191
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:01,080
Speaker 3: a two four five, one five or a one four

1192
00:53:01,160 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 3: six formation, and it's he's going to try to create

1193
00:53:04,080 --> 00:53:07,600
Speaker 3: mashup issues with this Oregon defense. And that really makes

1194
00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:10,960
Speaker 3: me nervous. You know, they had a problem with a

1195
00:53:10,960 --> 00:53:12,840
Speaker 3: pass rush in the first place. They couldn't control the

1196
00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:15,440
Speaker 3: trench in the rushing game on defense, and now you're

1197
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:17,759
Speaker 3: going to throw an expore. You could go from a

1198
00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:19,759
Speaker 3: three to four to a one five to five to

1199
00:53:19,840 --> 00:53:22,560
Speaker 3: a one four six on these kids, and you're gonna

1200
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:25,520
Speaker 3: do it in the very first game against Auburn, against

1201
00:53:25,520 --> 00:53:27,920
Speaker 3: Gus Malson. That worries me a little bit in the

1202
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:29,839
Speaker 3: number one game, which is which is why I don't

1203
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:31,920
Speaker 3: like taking their win total over or having them in

1204
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:34,799
Speaker 3: week one. They do have five conference home games, but

1205
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:38,560
Speaker 3: they do travel to Stanford, Washington and USC and I'm

1206
00:53:38,560 --> 00:53:41,680
Speaker 3: gonna end on this note with Oregon because you are

1207
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:44,399
Speaker 3: the guy we played Trivial Pursuit together, We've done you know,

1208
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:45,880
Speaker 3: you were the guy that we need to get on

1209
00:53:45,960 --> 00:53:48,200
Speaker 3: Jeopardy from the Action Network. So let me ask you this.

1210
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:50,520
Speaker 3: When is the last time Oregon has beaten Washington State?

1211
00:53:50,600 --> 00:53:53,440
Speaker 3: When is the last time Oregon has covered Washington State?

1212
00:53:53,640 --> 00:53:54,000
Speaker 3: Do you know?

1213
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:56,200
Speaker 2: I know it's been a while because when we did,

1214
00:53:56,600 --> 00:53:58,960
Speaker 2: when I did a piece last year, I know that

1215
00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:03,800
Speaker 2: Washington State one four in a row. So I'm gonna

1216
00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:06,719
Speaker 2: say twenty did they plan twenty fourteen?

1217
00:54:07,160 --> 00:54:07,320
Speaker 1: Do you know?

1218
00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:11,359
Speaker 2: I say twenty fourteen is the last time that Oregon won.

1219
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:16,040
Speaker 2: The last time they covered probably twenty thirteen. That team

1220
00:54:16,120 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 2: probably won. Yeah, now I'd say twenty thirteen to twenty fourteen.

1221
00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:21,319
Speaker 3: This is why you are the czar of our gambling world.

1222
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:23,800
Speaker 3: So they have not beaten Washington State since twenty fourteen.

1223
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:27,319
Speaker 3: Oregon has not covered Washington State since two thousand and nine.

1224
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:29,239
Speaker 3: Two thousand and nine, I mean, I was I was

1225
00:54:29,280 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 3: going I was going through this is like this can't

1226
00:54:31,000 --> 00:54:33,480
Speaker 3: be right. And I still, you know, I still I

1227
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:35,080
Speaker 3: still can't believe it. I feel like I need to

1228
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:38,040
Speaker 3: maybe quadruple check myself, but they have not covered since

1229
00:54:38,040 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 3: two thousand and nine, so there's a problem here. Anyways,

1230
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:44,960
Speaker 3: you know, overall, I'm not taking an Oregon under. I

1231
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:47,440
Speaker 3: actually sorry, I have. I took an organ under. I'd

1232
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:49,799
Speaker 3: load limits back in May when they released it at nine.

1233
00:54:50,320 --> 00:54:52,239
Speaker 3: I believe I took it again when the limits were

1234
00:54:52,280 --> 00:54:54,359
Speaker 3: up to two hundred and fifty dollars on the under

1235
00:54:54,400 --> 00:54:56,239
Speaker 3: eight and a half. But you know that's the way

1236
00:54:56,239 --> 00:54:58,520
Speaker 3: that I would go. I haven't invested any more money

1237
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:01,120
Speaker 3: because I've invested a lot more money on Auburn in

1238
00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:02,160
Speaker 3: week one, You got it?

1239
00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:03,960
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I mean I see why people love Oregon.

1240
00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:06,720
Speaker 2: But and look, keep an eye on freshman mikeah Pittman.

1241
00:55:06,760 --> 00:55:09,000
Speaker 2: If him and Juwan Johnson comes in and the other

1242
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:11,480
Speaker 2: Johnson and the receivers from last year take a big

1243
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:13,520
Speaker 2: step up and their tight ends can stay healthy. With

1244
00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:16,440
Speaker 2: that offensive line and Herbert, I mean, the wide receiver

1245
00:55:16,520 --> 00:55:19,160
Speaker 2: drops last year were just amazing, how many they had.

1246
00:55:19,200 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 2: That offense can be awesome. All right, let's finish out

1247
00:55:22,480 --> 00:55:25,040
Speaker 2: here with the one team we didn't cover, and then

1248
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:27,760
Speaker 2: we'll just recap our favorite win totals in the Pac twelve,

1249
00:55:28,320 --> 00:55:31,640
Speaker 2: and that is Cal. Look the question with Cal, I

1250
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:33,560
Speaker 2: think their win totals five and a half. They're fifty

1251
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:36,160
Speaker 2: to one to win the pack twelve. Is this just

1252
00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:40,759
Speaker 2: the same story with Cal. Their defense is outrageous, it's

1253
00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:44,040
Speaker 2: really good, and they bring back a ton. They bring

1254
00:55:44,080 --> 00:55:46,400
Speaker 2: back eight of their top ten tackles. I think, you know,

1255
00:55:46,440 --> 00:55:49,080
Speaker 2: they were a top fifteen defense last year, rock solid

1256
00:55:49,080 --> 00:55:51,600
Speaker 2: at linebacker, really their whole front seven. They got everyone

1257
00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:54,120
Speaker 2: back in the secondary that had twenty one picks last year,

1258
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:56,680
Speaker 2: which is second most in the country. But the offense

1259
00:55:56,800 --> 00:55:59,839
Speaker 2: was just atrocious and they lost their top three wide.

1260
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:03,719
Speaker 2: They lost Laired at running back, their quarterback. I think

1261
00:56:03,760 --> 00:56:06,200
Speaker 2: it's their quarterback is back, but they also could be

1262
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:08,600
Speaker 2: who was their quarterback Chase Gabers. I think they were

1263
00:56:08,680 --> 00:56:11,160
Speaker 2: especially terrible in the red zone. Actually on defense too,

1264
00:56:11,320 --> 00:56:13,360
Speaker 2: but their offense just has nothing going for it and

1265
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 2: they turned it over constantly. One of the worst turnover

1266
00:56:16,080 --> 00:56:18,920
Speaker 2: teams in the country. So look, they got a good punter.

1267
00:56:19,160 --> 00:56:23,080
Speaker 2: Their defense should be excellent, but their offense I don't.

1268
00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:25,640
Speaker 2: It's just gonna hold them back, I think once again,

1269
00:56:25,719 --> 00:56:28,400
Speaker 2: I mean they I do love this defense, I just

1270
00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:31,239
Speaker 2: wish it was on another team. They have two senior safeties.

1271
00:56:31,800 --> 00:56:34,240
Speaker 2: Evan Weaver is one of the best linebackers in the country.

1272
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:37,440
Speaker 2: I love him. But the offense, it's just it's atrocious. So,

1273
00:56:37,920 --> 00:56:39,600
Speaker 2: you know, I look at the schedule. They start with

1274
00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:42,799
Speaker 2: UC Davis at home, then they're at Washington and they

1275
00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:45,719
Speaker 2: play a tough North Texas team at home. Then they're

1276
00:56:45,719 --> 00:56:48,160
Speaker 2: at oh Miss. You know, they also go to Oregon,

1277
00:56:48,200 --> 00:56:51,960
Speaker 2: to Utah to Stanford. It's a brutal schedule. I don't

1278
00:56:51,960 --> 00:56:53,680
Speaker 2: see how they get the six wins. I know you

1279
00:56:53,719 --> 00:56:56,240
Speaker 2: make it six point four, but I just don't trust

1280
00:56:56,239 --> 00:56:58,239
Speaker 2: this offense at all. The number is probably not right,

1281
00:56:58,320 --> 00:57:00,480
Speaker 2: but I would not bet the over. He talks on

1282
00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:01,520
Speaker 2: cal Cal.

1283
00:57:01,480 --> 00:57:04,280
Speaker 3: Starts with the letter C, and the cheese and Bowls

1284
00:57:04,320 --> 00:57:07,880
Speaker 3: starts with the letter C. So I want to expect

1285
00:57:08,400 --> 00:57:10,880
Speaker 3: more of the same, of that of that filthiness that

1286
00:57:10,920 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 3: we saw in that Bowl game last year. I mean,

1287
00:57:13,160 --> 00:57:15,600
Speaker 3: this is a team that returns in their best defensive

1288
00:57:15,600 --> 00:57:18,280
Speaker 3: lineman and they return everybody in the secondary. So it's

1289
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:22,720
Speaker 3: going to be more of this extremely stellar, outstanding defense

1290
00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:25,800
Speaker 3: followed up by some of the worst offense in the country.

1291
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:28,160
Speaker 3: We're talking one hundred and twenty ninth and finishing drives.

1292
00:57:28,160 --> 00:57:31,560
Speaker 3: We're talking one hundred and twenty sixth. In offensive explosiveness,

1293
00:57:31,560 --> 00:57:34,560
Speaker 3: we're talking ninety six and rushing s and P plus.

1294
00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:38,480
Speaker 3: They are an extremely tough watch on offense. Where do

1295
00:57:38,520 --> 00:57:40,440
Speaker 3: they get the six wins? I don't know. First game

1296
00:57:40,480 --> 00:57:42,560
Speaker 3: out of the gate is you see Davis, which has

1297
00:57:43,080 --> 00:57:45,160
Speaker 3: the quarterback which is probably one of the best in

1298
00:57:45,200 --> 00:57:47,640
Speaker 3: all of FCS. So you know, look for California. You

1299
00:57:47,680 --> 00:57:49,439
Speaker 3: know Col's defense is going to be you know, uber

1300
00:57:49,480 --> 00:57:51,560
Speaker 3: focused on them, and then the following week they go

1301
00:57:51,600 --> 00:57:53,800
Speaker 3: on to play Washington, So I think it's going to

1302
00:57:53,840 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 3: be up and down. I think every week you just

1303
00:57:55,400 --> 00:57:56,920
Speaker 3: pick your poison. I mean there were weeks where were

1304
00:57:56,920 --> 00:57:59,520
Speaker 3: on Cal last year and they committed seven turnovers. Take

1305
00:57:59,560 --> 00:58:01,720
Speaker 3: a week off, if they played stellar defense and have

1306
00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 3: some good offensive efficiency and they'd win the game. We'd

1307
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:06,160
Speaker 3: be back on the next week and they'd have five turnovers.

1308
00:58:06,160 --> 00:58:09,000
Speaker 3: On offense. You're going to be an enigma, impossible to predict.

1309
00:58:09,000 --> 00:58:10,760
Speaker 3: Reminds me of a coastal team in the a SEC

1310
00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:13,160
Speaker 3: where they could either you know, win by twenty one

1311
00:58:13,440 --> 00:58:15,680
Speaker 3: or not cover by twenty one. So it just seems

1312
00:58:15,720 --> 00:58:17,760
Speaker 3: to be the way it is with talent, so they

1313
00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:18,959
Speaker 3: get to an offensive heart beat.

1314
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:20,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, you nailed it with the turnovers. I mean that's

1315
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:22,280
Speaker 2: basically where it's going to come down to their wind total.

1316
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:25,000
Speaker 2: I think like they were really lucky with turnovers, and

1317
00:58:25,360 --> 00:58:26,840
Speaker 2: a lot of it is because they're good on defense.

1318
00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:28,640
Speaker 2: But they forced a ton and they were probably a

1319
00:58:28,640 --> 00:58:31,400
Speaker 2: little unlucky on turnovers and offense. So which one of

1320
00:58:31,400 --> 00:58:34,080
Speaker 2: those regresses more, you know, And I think that's what

1321
00:58:34,120 --> 00:58:36,400
Speaker 2: little decide. I think there were seven and zero when

1322
00:58:36,440 --> 00:58:38,920
Speaker 2: they threw one pick or less, and then zero and

1323
00:58:39,040 --> 00:58:41,280
Speaker 2: six when they threw two picks us last year. I mean,

1324
00:58:41,280 --> 00:58:44,640
Speaker 2: the quarterback play is just I don't know how it's

1325
00:58:44,680 --> 00:58:46,520
Speaker 2: going to get better. I mean, look, they got the

1326
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:49,920
Speaker 2: South Carolina transfer, Brandon mclainey comes in, maybe he can

1327
00:58:49,960 --> 00:58:52,760
Speaker 2: give them a spark, but Garber's at quarterback. It's just

1328
00:58:53,080 --> 00:58:56,120
Speaker 2: it just wasn't working last year. All right. So for Colin,

1329
00:58:56,200 --> 00:58:58,600
Speaker 2: I kind of have the same feeling on Oregon. But

1330
00:58:58,680 --> 00:59:02,000
Speaker 2: for another person, ective and maybe one that's a little

1331
00:59:02,040 --> 00:59:04,200
Speaker 2: more biased, maybe not. I'm going to talk to my

1332
00:59:04,320 --> 00:59:08,040
Speaker 2: friend Dan Rubinstein, who might owe me a sandwich. I

1333
00:59:08,080 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 2: think so for my take that bet.

1334
00:59:09,760 --> 00:59:12,800
Speaker 1: What's going on, Dan, Not much enjoying the last couple

1335
00:59:12,800 --> 00:59:15,280
Speaker 1: of weeks before the season starts, the last month or so,

1336
00:59:15,720 --> 00:59:18,280
Speaker 1: trying to get outside as much as possible because Saturdays

1337
00:59:18,320 --> 00:59:21,480
Speaker 1: are about to be an indoor day for a long

1338
00:59:21,520 --> 00:59:24,360
Speaker 1: time moving forward, so you know, getting getting ready.

1339
00:59:24,600 --> 00:59:27,200
Speaker 2: Yep, it's the calm before the storm. And I did

1340
00:59:27,200 --> 00:59:30,240
Speaker 2: want to talk to you about Oregon twenty nineteen football.

1341
00:59:30,280 --> 00:59:33,040
Speaker 2: I do also want to talk to you about twenty seventeen.

1342
00:59:33,120 --> 00:59:35,160
Speaker 2: I really like the piece that you wrote about that team.

1343
00:59:35,160 --> 00:59:37,480
Speaker 2: But let's start with this year's team. Colin and I

1344
00:59:37,520 --> 00:59:40,280
Speaker 2: recently just talked about, you know how we love their

1345
00:59:40,320 --> 00:59:43,360
Speaker 2: offensive line, the most experienced offensive line in college football.

1346
00:59:43,640 --> 00:59:47,400
Speaker 2: You know Herbert obviously back at quarterback, the receivers, there's

1347
00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:50,240
Speaker 2: potential there, but the drops were an issue last year.

1348
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:52,840
Speaker 2: But there's a there's a high ceiling for this team.

1349
00:59:52,880 --> 00:59:56,360
Speaker 2: I believe the schedule is tough, but what when you

1350
00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:58,640
Speaker 2: look at this Oregon team, what do you look at

1351
00:59:58,640 --> 01:00:00,720
Speaker 2: as their ceiling and their fluor and what are the

1352
01:00:00,920 --> 01:00:03,320
Speaker 2: some key things that have to go right or things

1353
01:00:03,320 --> 01:00:06,200
Speaker 2: that could go wrong to make the season turn sour.

1354
01:00:06,520 --> 01:00:09,480
Speaker 1: Sure, I think the offense needs to be more creative.

1355
01:00:10,360 --> 01:00:13,560
Speaker 1: They have taken on Mario Cristobal, for better or worse,

1356
01:00:13,680 --> 01:00:16,200
Speaker 1: his view of football and winning everything in the trenches,

1357
01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:18,640
Speaker 1: and they have the offensive line to it really inflict

1358
01:00:18,720 --> 01:00:21,320
Speaker 1: a lot of damage. But we saw last year, especially

1359
01:00:21,400 --> 01:00:24,360
Speaker 1: on the road, whether it was Arizona, Washington State, or Utah,

1360
01:00:24,520 --> 01:00:28,600
Speaker 1: a lot of really slow, sloppy starts that justin Herbert

1361
01:00:28,640 --> 01:00:31,800
Speaker 1: couldn't win alone. And when they started to get more creative,

1362
01:00:31,800 --> 01:00:34,040
Speaker 1: whether it was against UCLA or Arizona State which was

1363
01:00:34,080 --> 01:00:36,520
Speaker 1: at home, but getting the ball to speed and just

1364
01:00:36,680 --> 01:00:39,640
Speaker 1: swing past the little hitches, just easy stuff to take

1365
01:00:39,720 --> 01:00:42,000
Speaker 1: free yards, the offense moved, they stayed on the field,

1366
01:00:42,040 --> 01:00:44,000
Speaker 1: they put up points, and they got into a rhythm.

1367
01:00:44,280 --> 01:00:46,600
Speaker 1: And so that's what I'm looking for. If they're going

1368
01:00:46,640 --> 01:00:49,000
Speaker 1: to hit their ceiling, they're going to have to go

1369
01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:51,560
Speaker 1: away a little bit more from that sort of downhill

1370
01:00:51,720 --> 01:00:55,280
Speaker 1: pistol formation that they have sort of relied on. And

1371
01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:58,320
Speaker 1: the ceiling is winning the conference. The ceiling is beating

1372
01:00:58,440 --> 01:01:01,720
Speaker 1: Washington It's you know, final, beating Washington State after I

1373
01:01:01,720 --> 01:01:04,200
Speaker 1: think four straight years of losing to the Cougars. It's

1374
01:01:04,240 --> 01:01:06,520
Speaker 1: beating Stanford and not losing in a dumb way like

1375
01:01:06,560 --> 01:01:08,440
Speaker 1: they did last year. So they have that. They go

1376
01:01:08,480 --> 01:01:10,880
Speaker 1: to US seed and the schedule, as you mentioned, is tough,

1377
01:01:10,920 --> 01:01:13,840
Speaker 1: and obviously they open against Auburn in Texas. But it's

1378
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 1: offensive creativity. It's Herbert looking more consistent and not relying

1379
01:01:17,920 --> 01:01:21,160
Speaker 1: on a guy, whether it's Micah Pittman, whether it's the

1380
01:01:21,160 --> 01:01:24,360
Speaker 1: transfer from Penn State Juwan Johnson, whether you know, Mikeah

1381
01:01:24,360 --> 01:01:27,120
Speaker 1: Pittman's an incoming freshman that that I think may crack

1382
01:01:27,160 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 1: the starting lineup, if not immediately, by week two or three.

1383
01:01:29,960 --> 01:01:32,800
Speaker 1: So they should be better at receiver, they are deeper

1384
01:01:32,840 --> 01:01:35,840
Speaker 1: at running back. So I think they're winning the conference

1385
01:01:35,960 --> 01:01:39,800
Speaker 1: if the defense is a lot more unpredictable and if

1386
01:01:39,840 --> 01:01:43,240
Speaker 1: the offense becomes a little bit more creative. Their floor, though,

1387
01:01:43,520 --> 01:01:47,280
Speaker 1: is probably a seven and five team, seven to five,

1388
01:01:47,320 --> 01:01:51,520
Speaker 1: eight and four team, once again, just because if they're

1389
01:01:51,520 --> 01:01:53,200
Speaker 1: not able to figure it out on the road, with

1390
01:01:53,280 --> 01:01:56,080
Speaker 1: who they play on the road, it can get ugly quickly,

1391
01:01:56,120 --> 01:01:58,560
Speaker 1: and I think that sort of thing can spiral. I

1392
01:01:58,560 --> 01:02:00,320
Speaker 1: think that they're still a bowl team no matter or what,

1393
01:02:00,440 --> 01:02:03,520
Speaker 1: because of Justin Herbert and the talent that they've recruited

1394
01:02:03,560 --> 01:02:06,320
Speaker 1: to Eugene. But they feel like a nine or ten

1395
01:02:06,400 --> 01:02:09,760
Speaker 1: win team, not much more unless they win a couple

1396
01:02:09,760 --> 01:02:10,960
Speaker 1: of fifty to fifty moments.

1397
01:02:11,080 --> 01:02:12,760
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, that's a good point. I mean, I love

1398
01:02:12,800 --> 01:02:14,320
Speaker 2: the kid Tim and he has a ton of potential.

1399
01:02:14,360 --> 01:02:16,560
Speaker 2: I think they come in and produced right away. Johnson

1400
01:02:16,600 --> 01:02:18,760
Speaker 2: also very talented kid, but one of the things that

1401
01:02:18,840 --> 01:02:20,520
Speaker 2: sticks out with him he had drop issues, which was

1402
01:02:20,560 --> 01:02:23,439
Speaker 2: an Oregon yeah issue last year. So does he come

1403
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:25,440
Speaker 2: in and get it together or does that become a

1404
01:02:25,480 --> 01:02:29,640
Speaker 2: persistent theme again this year. You mentioned the Auburn game.

1405
01:02:29,800 --> 01:02:32,040
Speaker 2: Are you really excited? Are you nervous?

1406
01:02:32,240 --> 01:02:35,280
Speaker 1: I'm really hopeful. I'm hopeful because Oregon has the offensive

1407
01:02:35,320 --> 01:02:37,520
Speaker 1: line in a way that they haven't in the number

1408
01:02:37,520 --> 01:02:40,640
Speaker 1: of years, pass to neutralize Derek Brown and what looks

1409
01:02:40,640 --> 01:02:44,160
Speaker 1: to be a really strong Auburn defensive line. I am again,

1410
01:02:44,280 --> 01:02:47,840
Speaker 1: I'm just I'm hopeful. I'm not nervous. I'm not biting

1411
01:02:47,880 --> 01:02:50,600
Speaker 1: my nails. I'm hopeful that they can just get into

1412
01:02:50,600 --> 01:02:53,120
Speaker 1: a rhythm in the screen game. I just I'm terrified

1413
01:02:53,160 --> 01:02:55,520
Speaker 1: that they will go three and out their first three

1414
01:02:55,600 --> 01:02:57,840
Speaker 1: drives and it's going to look like they did last year.

1415
01:02:58,080 --> 01:03:02,600
Speaker 1: With this long offseason to go into that huge game

1416
01:03:02,600 --> 01:03:05,640
Speaker 1: in Texas in a giant stadium and not solve any

1417
01:03:05,640 --> 01:03:08,800
Speaker 1: of the issues they had last year, that'd be pretty infuriating.

1418
01:03:08,960 --> 01:03:11,360
Speaker 1: But if they're able to get into a rhythm early on,

1419
01:03:11,480 --> 01:03:13,960
Speaker 1: and you know, it's a big stadium, it's a little different.

1420
01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:16,720
Speaker 1: I'm hopeful that they can win a game like that,

1421
01:03:16,840 --> 01:03:19,160
Speaker 1: even if it's ugly. If they're not winning this game,

1422
01:03:19,160 --> 01:03:21,120
Speaker 1: they should be in it until the end. If they're

1423
01:03:21,120 --> 01:03:24,720
Speaker 1: not competitive in this game, that is a pretty big

1424
01:03:24,760 --> 01:03:28,120
Speaker 1: mark against this coaching staff right on the onset. So

1425
01:03:28,520 --> 01:03:31,680
Speaker 1: feeling I guess cautiously optimistic that they're at least going

1426
01:03:31,720 --> 01:03:32,680
Speaker 1: to show something new.

1427
01:03:33,000 --> 01:03:35,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'm really looking forward to the game.

1428
01:03:35,320 --> 01:03:37,720
Speaker 2: And like you mentioned, the offensive line of Oregon versus

1429
01:03:37,720 --> 01:03:40,840
Speaker 2: that front seven of Auburn, I think is just a fascinating,

1430
01:03:41,080 --> 01:03:43,000
Speaker 2: awesome early season matchup. And I'll take this time to

1431
01:03:43,000 --> 01:03:45,680
Speaker 2: throw some shade at the other team in Alabama, because

1432
01:03:45,720 --> 01:03:49,200
Speaker 2: I love these, you know, Power five non conference matchups

1433
01:03:49,240 --> 01:03:51,360
Speaker 2: early on in the season, and I hope Alabama. I

1434
01:03:51,360 --> 01:03:52,920
Speaker 2: think we have to wait until twenty twenty two when

1435
01:03:52,920 --> 01:03:54,680
Speaker 2: they go to Texas, but I would just love to

1436
01:03:54,680 --> 01:03:56,560
Speaker 2: see Alabama and do it more often. I mean, they

1437
01:03:56,560 --> 01:03:59,280
Speaker 2: played Duke in New Mexico State and you know, to

1438
01:03:59,320 --> 01:04:02,160
Speaker 2: start off the year. But I'm really looking forward to

1439
01:04:02,200 --> 01:04:04,280
Speaker 2: this today's earlier season matchup. Before we get to the

1440
01:04:04,520 --> 01:04:06,560
Speaker 2: seventeen that I mentioned, I did want to ask you

1441
01:04:06,600 --> 01:04:09,160
Speaker 2: two other things. Win total at eight and a half

1442
01:04:09,440 --> 01:04:11,640
Speaker 2: over or under? I mean, it's just high to the over.

1443
01:04:11,760 --> 01:04:13,800
Speaker 2: And then do you have any thoughts on the special

1444
01:04:13,840 --> 01:04:16,600
Speaker 2: teams potentially being a big concern for Oregon? Is that

1445
01:04:16,920 --> 01:04:18,680
Speaker 2: something you're worried about? And would you go over under

1446
01:04:18,720 --> 01:04:19,240
Speaker 2: eight and a half?

1447
01:04:19,400 --> 01:04:21,560
Speaker 1: I think the return game will be okay. The kicking

1448
01:04:21,600 --> 01:04:25,680
Speaker 1: game is terrifying. They were really strong as a special

1449
01:04:25,680 --> 01:04:28,680
Speaker 1: teams team under Chip Kelly and most of the time

1450
01:04:28,760 --> 01:04:32,560
Speaker 1: under Mark Elfrich, so I'm worried about that. But I

1451
01:04:32,560 --> 01:04:35,440
Speaker 1: think I like the over barely. I mean, they feel

1452
01:04:35,440 --> 01:04:37,520
Speaker 1: like a nine win team to me right now, just

1453
01:04:37,520 --> 01:04:40,600
Speaker 1: because I'm going to assume some sort of road struggles

1454
01:04:40,640 --> 01:04:43,120
Speaker 1: and you know, having Auburn and Washington on the road,

1455
01:04:43,160 --> 01:04:45,640
Speaker 1: and I believe Stanford on the road it's tough. So

1456
01:04:45,760 --> 01:04:48,360
Speaker 1: I feel better about Oregon's chances against Stanford than I

1457
01:04:48,400 --> 01:04:52,040
Speaker 1: have in a long time. Stanford is going through a

1458
01:04:52,080 --> 01:04:54,800
Speaker 1: really secretly weird patch, I think right now on both

1459
01:04:54,840 --> 01:04:57,280
Speaker 1: sides of the ball. So I like the over there.

1460
01:04:57,360 --> 01:05:00,600
Speaker 1: And the fact is that there's so much more talented

1461
01:05:00,720 --> 01:05:03,400
Speaker 1: now than they've been these past couple of years that

1462
01:05:03,600 --> 01:05:06,240
Speaker 1: they should be able to rotate in guys more than

1463
01:05:06,240 --> 01:05:08,160
Speaker 1: they've ever been able to. They should be stronger in

1464
01:05:08,160 --> 01:05:10,120
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. I like the strength program a whole

1465
01:05:10,120 --> 01:05:13,120
Speaker 1: bunch when you look at like that. The defense is

1466
01:05:13,160 --> 01:05:16,200
Speaker 1: anchored by a number of upper classmen both of the secondary,

1467
01:05:16,240 --> 01:05:19,400
Speaker 1: Troy diet inside linebacker, Jordan Scott in the middle. They're

1468
01:05:19,440 --> 01:05:22,160
Speaker 1: finally they finally gotten to a point where even if

1469
01:05:22,200 --> 01:05:24,760
Speaker 1: they don't look great, that they could still win, to

1470
01:05:24,760 --> 01:05:26,760
Speaker 1: pull out a game twenty to seventeen, and I don't

1471
01:05:26,760 --> 01:05:28,640
Speaker 1: think you could say that these past couple of years,

1472
01:05:28,680 --> 01:05:30,920
Speaker 1: whether it's you know, against Utah, Like Utah was a

1473
01:05:30,960 --> 01:05:33,680
Speaker 1: winnable game last year and they just got bogged down

1474
01:05:33,800 --> 01:05:36,520
Speaker 1: offensively and they came back against Washington State. You know,

1475
01:05:36,560 --> 01:05:38,840
Speaker 1: they had injuries up front for that game, but that

1476
01:05:38,960 --> 01:05:40,880
Speaker 1: was a game that they could have if they were

1477
01:05:40,920 --> 01:05:44,800
Speaker 1: competent early been in if not, you know, taken that game.

1478
01:05:44,920 --> 01:05:47,000
Speaker 1: So I think they're going to be closer in a

1479
01:05:47,000 --> 01:05:49,360
Speaker 1: lot of those games to winning than they have been,

1480
01:05:49,480 --> 01:05:51,760
Speaker 1: and so nine fields about right nine or ten.

1481
01:05:52,240 --> 01:05:56,200
Speaker 2: I'm starting to lean towards Oregon in this game against Auburn,

1482
01:05:56,280 --> 01:05:59,600
Speaker 2: but I'm thinking back to last year when Auburn played Washington.

1483
01:05:59,760 --> 01:06:02,520
Speaker 2: Washington had all kinds of kicking problems and special team

1484
01:06:02,560 --> 01:06:04,720
Speaker 2: issues last year, and they missed that they were inside

1485
01:06:04,760 --> 01:06:08,200
Speaker 2: the Auburn ten in the second half down by two,

1486
01:06:08,400 --> 01:06:10,080
Speaker 2: and then they missed that. They ended up missing that

1487
01:06:10,120 --> 01:06:12,360
Speaker 2: field goal, which was huge. So in a game that

1488
01:06:12,680 --> 01:06:15,960
Speaker 2: you know you expect to be really close and competitive,

1489
01:06:16,160 --> 01:06:17,520
Speaker 2: you know we're going to learn a lot about their

1490
01:06:17,600 --> 01:06:20,120
Speaker 2: kicking situation and it could make or break that game

1491
01:06:20,200 --> 01:06:21,640
Speaker 2: and season and win total.

1492
01:06:21,880 --> 01:06:23,560
Speaker 1: The thing I'm curious about, and I think all of

1493
01:06:23,560 --> 01:06:26,760
Speaker 1: that is right, is that game last year. Auburn comes

1494
01:06:26,800 --> 01:06:30,160
Speaker 1: out looking pretty incredible the first whatever five to ten

1495
01:06:30,200 --> 01:06:34,240
Speaker 1: minutes of that game, and Washington didn't back down. Washington

1496
01:06:34,360 --> 01:06:36,640
Speaker 1: didn't let it get in their heads. Washington just sort

1497
01:06:36,680 --> 01:06:39,800
Speaker 1: of held their ground. They stayed calm, they ran their offense,

1498
01:06:39,880 --> 01:06:42,640
Speaker 1: they got going on defense, and it was a close

1499
01:06:42,680 --> 01:06:44,680
Speaker 1: game because I think they went down maybe ten nothing

1500
01:06:44,680 --> 01:06:49,560
Speaker 1: pretty quickly. I'm curious if that happens against Oregon. Mentally,

1501
01:06:49,800 --> 01:06:52,520
Speaker 1: is Oregon in a place where they can say, it's cool.

1502
01:06:52,720 --> 01:06:55,120
Speaker 1: We trust her offense, we trust her defense, we trust

1503
01:06:55,160 --> 01:06:57,920
Speaker 1: the coaches, we trust the players. Let's just keep going.

1504
01:06:58,400 --> 01:07:01,120
Speaker 1: Or if they sort of start panic and throwing the

1505
01:07:01,120 --> 01:07:04,760
Speaker 1: ball downfield unnecessarily going all out defensively and calling all

1506
01:07:04,800 --> 01:07:08,560
Speaker 1: sorts of blitzes and whatever and really showing panic, that's

1507
01:07:08,720 --> 01:07:10,960
Speaker 1: I don't know either way, because we haven't seen Oregon

1508
01:07:10,960 --> 01:07:13,280
Speaker 1: in a spot like this. They look very good against Washington,

1509
01:07:13,320 --> 01:07:15,160
Speaker 1: but they didn't get punched in the mouth the same

1510
01:07:15,200 --> 01:07:17,880
Speaker 1: way that Washington did against Auburn. So that to me

1511
01:07:17,960 --> 01:07:20,720
Speaker 1: is a big curiosity, even more so than special teams,

1512
01:07:20,720 --> 01:07:23,000
Speaker 1: because special teams will only matter if it's a close

1513
01:07:23,080 --> 01:07:26,200
Speaker 1: game kicking wise, and if it gets an Oregon's heads,

1514
01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:28,439
Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, ten nothing turns into twenty

1515
01:07:28,480 --> 01:07:29,520
Speaker 1: one three pretty quickly.

1516
01:07:30,120 --> 01:07:32,720
Speaker 2: Yep. No, that's a great point. You're talking about what

1517
01:07:32,760 --> 01:07:34,880
Speaker 2: if so I think it's a good transition to the

1518
01:07:34,920 --> 01:07:37,560
Speaker 2: two thousand and seven Oregon team. And you did a

1519
01:07:37,600 --> 01:07:41,160
Speaker 2: great piece on how this season really just took a

1520
01:07:41,200 --> 01:07:43,480
Speaker 2: turn for the worst due to injuries to the quarterback

1521
01:07:43,640 --> 01:07:45,640
Speaker 2: and a number of other factors. And that two thousand

1522
01:07:45,640 --> 01:07:47,920
Speaker 2: and seven was a wild year in general. I'll tweet

1523
01:07:47,920 --> 01:07:50,680
Speaker 2: out the article for everyone listening. Tell us about the

1524
01:07:50,680 --> 01:07:53,280
Speaker 2: disappointment when their quarterback went down and everything kind of

1525
01:07:53,320 --> 01:07:55,160
Speaker 2: turned for the worst in that Arizona game.

1526
01:07:55,480 --> 01:07:58,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was the two thousand and seven season. Dentist

1527
01:07:58,000 --> 01:08:01,480
Speaker 1: Dixon was the quarterback, the starting quarterback against Arizona, But

1528
01:08:01,520 --> 01:08:04,240
Speaker 1: it was the week before against Arizona State at home

1529
01:08:04,320 --> 01:08:06,760
Speaker 1: in a nice win. I think that Arizona State was

1530
01:08:06,760 --> 01:08:09,360
Speaker 1: a top ten team. He tears his ACL sort of

1531
01:08:09,360 --> 01:08:12,400
Speaker 1: in meaningless later time in the game. He's sort of

1532
01:08:12,480 --> 01:08:13,960
Speaker 1: running out of bounds and gets hit a little bit,

1533
01:08:13,960 --> 01:08:16,320
Speaker 1: but nothing crazy. He just twisted a little bit, and

1534
01:08:16,760 --> 01:08:21,439
Speaker 1: they keep him practicing. They bandage everything up, they put him.

1535
01:08:21,320 --> 01:08:21,799
Speaker 2: In a brace.

1536
01:08:21,880 --> 01:08:24,679
Speaker 1: He's able to move well enough, just in the pocket

1537
01:08:24,680 --> 01:08:28,479
Speaker 1: and running straight forward. But against Arizona on a Thursday night,

1538
01:08:28,680 --> 01:08:31,120
Speaker 1: early on in that game, after running for like a

1539
01:08:31,160 --> 01:08:34,479
Speaker 1: forty yard touchdown, he just is trying to like evade

1540
01:08:34,520 --> 01:08:38,320
Speaker 1: a rush and tries to cut back in and just

1541
01:08:38,400 --> 01:08:41,360
Speaker 1: collapses into a heap and tears his ACL. Which was

1542
01:08:41,640 --> 01:08:43,680
Speaker 1: far from the first injury of the season. They had

1543
01:08:43,680 --> 01:08:46,360
Speaker 1: been dealing with a ton of injuries, especially on offense.

1544
01:08:46,400 --> 01:08:49,680
Speaker 1: At receiver Jeremiah Johnson, who was the sort of CounterPunch

1545
01:08:49,720 --> 01:08:52,200
Speaker 1: to Jonathan Stewart, goes down with a pretty bad injury.

1546
01:08:52,240 --> 01:08:54,400
Speaker 1: He was sort of an all purpose back and returner.

1547
01:08:54,520 --> 01:08:57,439
Speaker 1: So between all the injuries that receiver. On defense, a

1548
01:08:57,479 --> 01:08:59,960
Speaker 1: couple of key guys go out. Dentist Dixon going out.

1549
01:09:00,120 --> 01:09:02,880
Speaker 1: They had only lost once, they lost to to cal

1550
01:09:03,280 --> 01:09:05,800
Speaker 1: Cow was very very good. So they lose that game

1551
01:09:05,840 --> 01:09:08,559
Speaker 1: and that was they lose that game as Cameron Colvin,

1552
01:09:08,800 --> 01:09:12,040
Speaker 1: starting receiver, reaches for the pylons and as he does,

1553
01:09:12,200 --> 01:09:14,120
Speaker 1: reaches for a pylon and as he does, the ball

1554
01:09:14,360 --> 01:09:16,879
Speaker 1: sort of scorts out of bounds and it's a touchback.

1555
01:09:16,880 --> 01:09:19,400
Speaker 1: And that's the game. But in terms of talent, in

1556
01:09:19,479 --> 01:09:22,160
Speaker 1: terms of because that's Chip Kelly's first season as offensive

1557
01:09:22,160 --> 01:09:25,280
Speaker 1: coordinator for Oregon, this was like the big ushering in

1558
01:09:25,520 --> 01:09:29,120
Speaker 1: of playing the spread with pace, adding the zone read

1559
01:09:29,240 --> 01:09:33,519
Speaker 1: into things, you know, quick screens and just lightning attacks.

1560
01:09:33,520 --> 01:09:37,200
Speaker 1: They went to Michigan and just destroyed the Wolverines, and

1561
01:09:37,240 --> 01:09:38,880
Speaker 1: they were going deep, they were running. They have a

1562
01:09:38,880 --> 01:09:40,839
Speaker 1: statue of liberty. They have a fake statue of liberty.

1563
01:09:41,080 --> 01:09:44,479
Speaker 1: So they quickly become this version of Oregon that suddenly

1564
01:09:44,479 --> 01:09:47,639
Speaker 1: becomes this incredibly popular team for years to come. People,

1565
01:09:47,680 --> 01:09:49,080
Speaker 1: and you know, if you're in Florida, if you're in

1566
01:09:49,080 --> 01:09:50,880
Speaker 1: New York, if you're in Minnesota, all of a sudden,

1567
01:09:50,960 --> 01:09:54,240
Speaker 1: Oregon football is a brand because of that twenty seventeen,

1568
01:09:54,840 --> 01:09:57,719
Speaker 1: because of the uniforms, because of the style of play,

1569
01:09:57,840 --> 01:10:02,120
Speaker 1: and so after dentistics and there's his ACL against Arizona

1570
01:10:02,720 --> 01:10:05,639
Speaker 1: behind him, it's you know, Ryan Leaf's little brother, Brady.

1571
01:10:05,840 --> 01:10:08,479
Speaker 1: It's another quarterback actually tore his ACL early on in

1572
01:10:08,479 --> 01:10:10,280
Speaker 1: the season that probably would have come in and played,

1573
01:10:10,680 --> 01:10:13,560
Speaker 1: and so it fell apart. They lose really ugly to

1574
01:10:13,680 --> 01:10:17,439
Speaker 1: UCLA with something like twelve nothing at UCLA. I mean,

1575
01:10:17,479 --> 01:10:20,600
Speaker 1: actually the story ends pretty well because they get it

1576
01:10:20,640 --> 01:10:22,799
Speaker 1: together enough with a i think a red shirt freshman

1577
01:10:22,840 --> 01:10:26,559
Speaker 1: quarterback and they just absolutely vaporize South Florida in the

1578
01:10:26,560 --> 01:10:29,160
Speaker 1: Sun Bowl in Jonathan Stewart's last game, and he rushes

1579
01:10:29,200 --> 01:10:31,559
Speaker 1: for two hundred and forty some odd yards. So it

1580
01:10:31,680 --> 01:10:35,000
Speaker 1: ends well. But it was sort of the bottom fell

1581
01:10:35,040 --> 01:10:39,360
Speaker 1: out when Dennis Dixon's knee buckled and he was on

1582
01:10:39,400 --> 01:10:41,200
Speaker 1: the way to winning the Heisman, Organ was on the

1583
01:10:41,200 --> 01:10:43,760
Speaker 1: way to at least finding themselves in contention for the

1584
01:10:43,800 --> 01:10:46,599
Speaker 1: National Championship game. And it's one of those things where

1585
01:10:47,040 --> 01:10:48,879
Speaker 1: it just wasn't meant to be, I guess.

1586
01:10:49,000 --> 01:10:51,439
Speaker 2: And it is amazing to drop off after all those

1587
01:10:51,439 --> 01:10:54,080
Speaker 2: injuries to go from this Teina was scoring fifty plus

1588
01:10:54,080 --> 01:10:57,000
Speaker 2: to putting up a goose egg. Fascinating. So I have

1589
01:10:57,080 --> 01:11:00,240
Speaker 2: to ask you, if they do stay fully healthy, you're

1590
01:11:00,600 --> 01:11:02,919
Speaker 2: unbiased or biased if you want to give an opinion,

1591
01:11:03,320 --> 01:11:05,600
Speaker 2: do they end up winning the National JAMPI? Where are

1592
01:11:05,640 --> 01:11:07,720
Speaker 2: they the best team in the country because of that

1593
01:11:07,880 --> 01:11:11,120
Speaker 2: innovative offense. Would they have just went through and won

1594
01:11:11,160 --> 01:11:13,200
Speaker 2: every game and you know, ended up beating LSU.

1595
01:11:13,920 --> 01:11:16,040
Speaker 1: I wouldn't go as far as saying it's a no doubter.

1596
01:11:16,160 --> 01:11:18,240
Speaker 1: And I don't know if they play LSU or Ohio State.

1597
01:11:18,280 --> 01:11:20,160
Speaker 1: I forget how it fell in that point. If Ohio

1598
01:11:20,160 --> 01:11:22,400
Speaker 1: State had one loss in LSU two, I'm pretty sure

1599
01:11:22,479 --> 01:11:23,760
Speaker 1: LSU had two, So I don't know who they would

1600
01:11:23,760 --> 01:11:25,560
Speaker 1: have ended up playing. It's not a no doubt or

1601
01:11:25,560 --> 01:11:28,439
Speaker 1: it's not a no brainer. But yet, given they would

1602
01:11:28,479 --> 01:11:30,519
Speaker 1: have ended up in that game, for sure they would

1603
01:11:30,560 --> 01:11:33,760
Speaker 1: have beaten Arizona, they would have beaten UCLA. They would

1604
01:11:33,760 --> 01:11:35,680
Speaker 1: have I believe they also lost to Oregon State in

1605
01:11:35,680 --> 01:11:37,840
Speaker 1: the last seconds. They would have easily beaten Oregon State

1606
01:11:38,280 --> 01:11:41,040
Speaker 1: and gotten to that point because there was not a

1607
01:11:41,600 --> 01:11:43,400
Speaker 1: Pac twelve or pack There wasn't pack fuel. Did any

1608
01:11:43,479 --> 01:11:45,640
Speaker 1: knew this wasn't a Pac ten championship game, So they

1609
01:11:45,640 --> 01:11:47,840
Speaker 1: would have ended up in the BCS National Championship and

1610
01:11:48,160 --> 01:11:51,280
Speaker 1: sure dealing with a defensive line and I think Glenn

1611
01:11:51,400 --> 01:11:53,720
Speaker 1: Dorsey was on LSUS that year, so they're dealing with

1612
01:11:53,720 --> 01:11:55,280
Speaker 1: something that's a step up from what they're used to

1613
01:11:55,320 --> 01:11:58,080
Speaker 1: in conference, whether it was Ohio State or LSU. But

1614
01:11:58,479 --> 01:12:01,280
Speaker 1: they end up in that game. And I actually think

1615
01:12:01,439 --> 01:12:05,560
Speaker 1: the twenty twelve team is a little bit more disappointed

1616
01:12:05,600 --> 01:12:07,080
Speaker 1: to me in terms of not ending up in the

1617
01:12:07,160 --> 01:12:10,120
Speaker 1: championship game because they would have gotten Notre Dame. The

1618
01:12:10,320 --> 01:12:13,160
Speaker 1: EVERT Golston Notre Dame team. Oregon goes eleven and one

1619
01:12:13,280 --> 01:12:15,680
Speaker 1: regular season, they win, they go twelve and one. It

1620
01:12:15,840 --> 01:12:18,120
Speaker 1: was the strongest defense of the Chip Kelly era. He

1621
01:12:18,160 --> 01:12:21,120
Speaker 1: had recruited, and you talk about luck, he had recruited

1622
01:12:21,360 --> 01:12:24,160
Speaker 1: really really well. Given Oregon and how they had or

1623
01:12:24,200 --> 01:12:27,519
Speaker 1: hadn't historically, it's they were deeper than they they've ever been,

1624
01:12:27,520 --> 01:12:30,920
Speaker 1: so they could withstand injuries. You talk about in the NFL,

1625
01:12:30,920 --> 01:12:33,160
Speaker 1: you talk about in college. The reason why Clemson and

1626
01:12:33,200 --> 01:12:35,960
Speaker 1: Alabama are what they are, it's not because they just

1627
01:12:36,080 --> 01:12:38,639
Speaker 1: have the best starters. It's when a starter goes down

1628
01:12:38,800 --> 01:12:41,120
Speaker 1: the backup left guard, there's almost no drop offs. And

1629
01:12:41,160 --> 01:12:43,679
Speaker 1: Oregon did not have that in two thousand and seven.

1630
01:12:43,800 --> 01:12:46,200
Speaker 1: They had it much more so in twenty twelve. They

1631
01:12:46,240 --> 01:12:48,960
Speaker 1: lose the game close to Stanford that they lose, and

1632
01:12:49,280 --> 01:12:51,559
Speaker 1: we're really a d Anthony Thomas block on a long

1633
01:12:51,640 --> 01:12:56,280
Speaker 1: Mariota run away from going undefeated. Mariota gets tackled at

1634
01:12:56,280 --> 01:12:58,200
Speaker 1: the ten or something like that. The Anthony Thomas is

1635
01:12:58,200 --> 01:13:00,680
Speaker 1: just sort of celebrating running ahead of him, and they

1636
01:13:00,760 --> 01:13:04,360
Speaker 1: don't finish the drive after Mariota gets tackled. And that's

1637
01:13:04,400 --> 01:13:06,519
Speaker 1: the team that to me is the best Oregon team

1638
01:13:06,560 --> 01:13:10,519
Speaker 1: of all time. They win I believe the Fiesta Bowl

1639
01:13:10,520 --> 01:13:14,280
Speaker 1: over Kansas State, and just it's lost to memory at

1640
01:13:14,280 --> 01:13:15,960
Speaker 1: this point, but that was that was the best Oregon

1641
01:13:16,000 --> 01:13:17,680
Speaker 1: team ever. In Mariota's freshman.

1642
01:13:17,400 --> 01:13:20,920
Speaker 2: Year, yeah, Stanford haunts them again. They won an overtime

1643
01:13:21,200 --> 01:13:24,679
Speaker 2: YEP that year, and I have a bone to pick

1644
01:13:24,760 --> 01:13:27,280
Speaker 2: with Oregon for last year. I hope they get their

1645
01:13:27,320 --> 01:13:30,559
Speaker 2: revenge this year. I had Oregon against Stanford last year.

1646
01:13:30,600 --> 01:13:32,400
Speaker 2: I don't think I've ever I don't think I've ever

1647
01:13:32,439 --> 01:13:36,479
Speaker 2: lost a game that was that painful in my entire life.

1648
01:13:36,360 --> 01:13:38,840
Speaker 2: Where were you for that game? And did you? Were you?

1649
01:13:38,880 --> 01:13:41,080
Speaker 2: But basically like celebrating like it's over, we won because

1650
01:13:41,120 --> 01:13:42,280
Speaker 2: I was, And I never do that.

1651
01:13:42,600 --> 01:13:45,439
Speaker 1: I basically was, Yeah, I was watching at home with

1652
01:13:45,479 --> 01:13:48,760
Speaker 1: my wife, my very pregnant wife at the time. Even

1653
01:13:48,760 --> 01:13:52,559
Speaker 1: though Stanford in twenty eighteen, it wasn't necessarily like beating

1654
01:13:52,600 --> 01:13:55,160
Speaker 1: Stanford in twenty eleven or twelve. They weren't that dominant.

1655
01:13:55,160 --> 01:13:57,200
Speaker 1: It wasn't a hardbough team, it wasn't an early shot team.

1656
01:13:57,439 --> 01:13:59,360
Speaker 1: It would have been a really nice win for Mario

1657
01:13:59,439 --> 01:14:03,000
Speaker 1: Cristobal as a first year head coach for Oregon, and

1658
01:14:03,200 --> 01:14:06,120
Speaker 1: the fact that losing on the snap, losing on the

1659
01:14:06,160 --> 01:14:10,320
Speaker 1: reaching the pylon situation, and then losing on the fumble

1660
01:14:10,360 --> 01:14:12,599
Speaker 1: when they're just running the clock out, and obviously they

1661
01:14:12,640 --> 01:14:15,400
Speaker 1: don't play a strong second half, but once it goes

1662
01:14:15,439 --> 01:14:18,200
Speaker 1: to overtime, you see that the universe is working in

1663
01:14:18,240 --> 01:14:19,840
Speaker 1: such a way and I'm not a big person who

1664
01:14:19,920 --> 01:14:23,080
Speaker 1: likes to blame the gods above the football gods. But

1665
01:14:23,200 --> 01:14:24,920
Speaker 1: as soon as the game goes to overtimes, like there's

1666
01:14:24,960 --> 01:14:27,240
Speaker 1: just no way Organs winning this game, Like it's just

1667
01:14:27,280 --> 01:14:30,280
Speaker 1: been decided that the breaks are not going Oregon's way

1668
01:14:30,320 --> 01:14:32,559
Speaker 1: and so it's not luck. It was just it was

1669
01:14:32,560 --> 01:14:34,840
Speaker 1: not their day that to have it go wrong in

1670
01:14:34,880 --> 01:14:38,439
Speaker 1: those three ways was just it drained the life out

1671
01:14:38,479 --> 01:14:38,680
Speaker 1: of me.

1672
01:14:39,320 --> 01:14:41,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I remember they were going to go

1673
01:14:41,280 --> 01:14:44,040
Speaker 2: up thirty one to seven and fumble the ball at

1674
01:14:44,040 --> 01:14:46,439
Speaker 2: the goal line and was returned for a touchdown, and

1675
01:14:46,479 --> 01:14:48,680
Speaker 2: it swings to twenty four to fourteen, and then it's

1676
01:14:48,680 --> 01:14:51,080
Speaker 2: twenty four to twenty one, and I'm sitting there cursing

1677
01:14:51,120 --> 01:14:54,280
Speaker 2: that play. But then they recovered they had a big drive.

1678
01:14:54,320 --> 01:14:56,479
Speaker 2: They scored a touchdown at thirty one to twenty one

1679
01:14:56,520 --> 01:15:00,280
Speaker 2: a couple minutes ago. I'm like, we're good. And Sanford

1680
01:15:00,320 --> 01:15:02,160
Speaker 2: strikes again and wins in overtime. So I hope you

1681
01:15:02,160 --> 01:15:04,559
Speaker 2: get your revenge this year. I wish you luck in

1682
01:15:04,600 --> 01:15:07,920
Speaker 2: that first game against Auburn. Thanks for joining us, Dan,

1683
01:15:08,000 --> 01:15:09,719
Speaker 2: and I'm sure we'll talk to you throughout the season.

1684
01:15:09,920 --> 01:15:11,200
Speaker 1: My pleasure thanks for having me.

1685
01:15:11,320 --> 01:15:14,400
Speaker 2: That'll wrap up the PAC twelve. We'll obviously be covering

1686
01:15:14,840 --> 01:15:17,000
Speaker 2: a lot more that throughout the season, but before we go,

1687
01:15:17,240 --> 01:15:19,639
Speaker 2: let's just wrap up rapid fire. What are a couple

1688
01:15:19,680 --> 01:15:22,880
Speaker 2: of your favorite win totals. I have a small piece

1689
01:15:22,920 --> 01:15:26,920
Speaker 2: of Stanford over seven. I have Utah over nine, and

1690
01:15:27,400 --> 01:15:29,760
Speaker 2: if I had to which, and I haven't finalized my

1691
01:15:29,760 --> 01:15:32,640
Speaker 2: PAC twelve win totals yet, I would go under on Wazoo,

1692
01:15:33,000 --> 01:15:36,360
Speaker 2: under on Cal but I'm probably staying away there under

1693
01:15:36,400 --> 01:15:40,040
Speaker 2: on Oregon State with the plus money, under on UCLA,

1694
01:15:40,280 --> 01:15:43,240
Speaker 2: under on USC and under on Washington. So I like

1695
01:15:43,280 --> 01:15:46,880
Speaker 2: a lot more unders than the overs, which is, you know, Stanford, Utah,

1696
01:15:47,000 --> 01:15:50,040
Speaker 2: potentially Colorado you're higher than I am on there and

1697
01:15:50,360 --> 01:15:52,880
Speaker 2: Arizona Arizona State, Like we said, complete stay away. I

1698
01:15:52,880 --> 01:15:54,240
Speaker 2: think of both those teams that will probably come down

1699
01:15:54,280 --> 01:15:56,679
Speaker 2: the last game of the year, and Oregon I'm staying

1700
01:15:56,680 --> 01:15:57,960
Speaker 2: away too because I think it just comes down with

1701
01:15:57,960 --> 01:16:00,200
Speaker 2: that Auburn game. How about you recap.

1702
01:16:00,479 --> 01:16:02,439
Speaker 3: Over on Colorado. I got them at three and a half,

1703
01:16:02,520 --> 01:16:05,679
Speaker 3: but I still suggest taking it at four everything Utah,

1704
01:16:05,760 --> 01:16:08,120
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter over nine to win the PAC twelve.

1705
01:16:08,120 --> 01:16:10,360
Speaker 3: Search for the best number out there. Three I think

1706
01:16:10,520 --> 01:16:12,760
Speaker 3: I said this before. Plus three point fifty is the

1707
01:16:12,760 --> 01:16:15,040
Speaker 3: bottom i'd go on finding PAC twelve future of so

1708
01:16:15,080 --> 01:16:18,240
Speaker 3: shop around. Definitely an under on USC got it at

1709
01:16:18,240 --> 01:16:20,880
Speaker 3: six point one versus the seven that's out there Oregon.

1710
01:16:20,920 --> 01:16:22,559
Speaker 3: I'm doing the under on the eight and a half.

1711
01:16:22,680 --> 01:16:25,040
Speaker 3: The biggest team total that I have played in the

1712
01:16:25,040 --> 01:16:28,000
Speaker 3: PAC twelve is under on Washington. So if somebody's got

1713
01:16:28,040 --> 01:16:30,280
Speaker 3: a ten out there that's heavily juice, or maybe you're

1714
01:16:30,280 --> 01:16:31,800
Speaker 3: in Vegas and you can go to Circus Sports and

1715
01:16:31,840 --> 01:16:34,880
Speaker 3: they've got sort of the alternate lines. Under ten is

1716
01:16:34,880 --> 01:16:36,800
Speaker 3: worth any amount of money you can get down. I

1717
01:16:36,800 --> 01:16:38,599
Speaker 3: think that's it. And also I'm going to take a

1718
01:16:38,720 --> 01:16:41,280
Speaker 3: Utah to beat Oregon. I haven't seen division odds come out,

1719
01:16:41,320 --> 01:16:44,679
Speaker 3: you know, usually those come out around Vegas or maybe

1720
01:16:44,680 --> 01:16:46,479
Speaker 3: in New Jersey, but I haven't seen him yet. But

1721
01:16:46,520 --> 01:16:48,280
Speaker 3: I'm going to go with Utah beating Oregon in the

1722
01:16:48,280 --> 01:16:49,400
Speaker 3: PAC twelve Championship.

1723
01:16:49,640 --> 01:16:53,520
Speaker 2: There you have it. That is our pack twenty nineteen

1724
01:16:54,160 --> 01:16:58,679
Speaker 2: PAC twelve pre season preview. Thank you for listening, Thanks

1725
01:16:58,720 --> 01:17:02,440
Speaker 2: as always for joining me. Shout out to Dan Rubinstein

1726
01:17:02,760 --> 01:17:06,360
Speaker 2: for joining us to talk some Oregon up next the

1727
01:17:06,439 --> 01:17:09,360
Speaker 2: sec Then we'll also get into the group of five.

1728
01:17:09,760 --> 01:17:12,080
Speaker 2: We'll do a recap episode, and then all of a sudden,

1729
01:17:12,400 --> 01:17:14,800
Speaker 2: you know, we'll be here talking games. Make sure that

1730
01:17:14,840 --> 01:17:18,280
Speaker 2: you subscribe on subscribe rate us, leave a review. We

1731
01:17:18,360 --> 01:17:21,639
Speaker 2: love you all, Thanks for listening, and enjoy your weekends. Cheers,

1732
01:17:21,800 --> 01:17:22,240
Speaker 2: peace out,