1 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast which brings the 2 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: global economy to you. Do you know why the retirement 3 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 1: age and so many countries is sixty five? And it's 4 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,919 Speaker 1: all thanks to Otto von Bismarck, the first German chancellor 5 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 1: who created the world's first social security system back in 6 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:28,639 Speaker 1: eighty and he started with the retirement age of seventy. 7 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: Then he brought it down to sixty five because back 8 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 1: then almost no one survived even that long. I was 9 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 1: reminded of that top fact by one of the investors 10 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:39,920 Speaker 1: on a panel I moderated this week at the Milk 11 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:44,159 Speaker 1: and Global Conference in Los Angeles, where billionaires and wannabe 12 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 1: billionaires and hundreds of other people all gather to talk 13 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:51,239 Speaker 1: about investing the global economy and when they have any 14 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,280 Speaker 1: spare time, making the world a better place. The theme 15 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 1: this year has been driving shared prosperity, and there's been 16 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: some discussion about how to save enough are happy and 17 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: secure retirement. Of course, one way a lot of people 18 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 1: today are investing in their retirement is by working and 19 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 1: earning well past sixty. I met someone here with a 20 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 1: non traditional take on that. You'll hear my interview with 21 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 1: her in a minute first. One of our Federal Reserve reporters, 22 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 1: Matt Bosler, has this story about older workers in the 23 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: US and what it means for the economy. I was 24 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: getting a whole six d and eighty two dollars a 25 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 1: month on Social Security, and I had bills, and sometimes 26 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 1: I had to decide between groceries or medication, and sometimes 27 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: I had to decide whether grocers were good this week 28 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: or next week. That's Doris O'Connor. She's sixty eight years 29 00:01:56,800 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 1: old and is part of the growing share of Americans 30 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 1: who work well into traditional retirement years. O'Connor is a 31 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 1: native of Brooklyn who has lived in Dallas for the 32 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:10,079 Speaker 1: past twenty years. Her story is a relatively happy one 33 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,640 Speaker 1: from an economic perspective. She's well enough to keep working, 34 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:17,639 Speaker 1: she finds her job fulfilling, and she's contributing to America's economy, 35 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 1: but O'Connor doesn't have enough money to quit. Her situation 36 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 1: is far from unique. Retirement insecurity as a position many 37 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 1: baby boomers find themselves in that's reshaped the US labor 38 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 1: market thanks to a new pool of workers available in 39 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:36,959 Speaker 1: an economy that's thirsty for them. At the same time, 40 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: the more older workers, there are the less opportunity younger 41 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 1: employees have to rise through the ranks, and the bigger 42 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 1: pool of workers overall means employers have more power to 43 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 1: pay lower wages, something that's been a puzzle in this 44 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: economic expansion. About of Americans over the age of sixty five. 45 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 1: We're working or looking for work in March, up from 46 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:02,919 Speaker 1: twelve per sent two decades ago. That's more than four 47 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 1: million extra people, or more than the entire combined US 48 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:12,120 Speaker 1: workforces of Walmart, Amazon, Ups, and Target. For Doris O'Connor, 49 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 1: her path back to work wasn't so simple. It was 50 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: hard because every day, every day you go online and 51 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 1: you look for jobs and you try to find something 52 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 1: that thinks that you think fits your skill level, and 53 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 1: you put in an application online and you never hear anything. 54 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 1: And I also had the additional problem that I didn't 55 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 1: have any computer skills. So she went to get computer 56 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 1: training at the Senior Source, a local nonprofit organization, and 57 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 1: they ended up giving her a job. Her title is 58 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: intake coordinator and she points people who call in for 59 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: help in the right direction. The increase in working among 60 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 1: older adults is happening for many reasons. People are healthier 61 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: office jobs are less taxing than the manufacturing and farm 62 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: work of decades past, But a lot of it boils 63 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 1: down to not being financially ready to retire. People are 64 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: living longer, and there's been a major shift in pension 65 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 1: plans that moves a lot of the responsibility for saving 66 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: from the employer to the employee. People aren't that good 67 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 1: at planning for their own financial futures. As it turns out, 68 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: about half of households are at risk of being unable 69 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 1: to maintain their lifestyles into retirement. According to research from 70 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:33,919 Speaker 1: Boston College, the biggest fear of the older adult is 71 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:38,599 Speaker 1: surprisingly not death, it's running out of money. That's Steve Benton. 72 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:42,480 Speaker 1: He's a financial counselor at the Elder Financial Safety Center 73 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 1: in Dallas, which is part of the Senior Source. He 74 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:49,600 Speaker 1: helped introduce us to Doris O'Connor and Uh, they are 75 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:53,839 Speaker 1: woefully prepared. These baby boomers are entering the retirement years 76 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 1: and don't have enough assets. They didn't plan. As a demographic, 77 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 1: they have been known spenders. This is the first generation 78 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 1: to ever reach retirement and still have mortgages. Benton talks 79 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,039 Speaker 1: all the time to aging workers who haven't saved enough 80 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 1: for retirement, or who are worried that in a world 81 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: of high longevity, they'll outlive their retirement stores. Life expectancy 82 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:21,479 Speaker 1: in America is just shy of seventy nine years, but 83 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 1: that average is dragged down by folks who die in 84 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:27,679 Speaker 1: middle age. Americans who live past the age of sixty 85 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 1: five can expect to live to eighty four for men 86 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 1: or nearly eighty seven for women. One in four sixty 87 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 1: five year olds will live past ninety and one in 88 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:41,359 Speaker 1: ten past ninety five, based on Social Security Administration data. 89 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 1: That's a long time to make retirement savings last, especially 90 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: in a world where people are falling back on less 91 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 1: reliable savings outlets. Alicia Mannell at Boston College has spent 92 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 1: years researching the topic. A large swath of the population 93 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 1: has a huge financial incentive to keep working, and working 94 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:06,359 Speaker 1: longer is really a powerful tool. Sticking around the labor 95 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 1: market allows people to delay drawing on their Social Security 96 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,719 Speaker 1: and four o one case plus, it adds additional years 97 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 1: for extra saving. Given that Manala is happy people are 98 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,120 Speaker 1: working longer, I think it's good news. If I had 99 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:21,160 Speaker 1: my way, if I were a queen, I would like 100 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 1: to change the conversation in the United States, so that 101 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 1: we established seventy as the UH sort of the national 102 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:32,479 Speaker 1: retirement age, and there are a couple of reasons for that. 103 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:34,559 Speaker 1: That's the age at which you get your highest Social 104 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 1: Security benefit, and so it keeps that ratio constant as 105 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:43,479 Speaker 1: participation climbs for people in their older working years. It 106 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 1: could help to delay when folks draw on their Social Security. 107 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 1: That can make a big difference in how long that 108 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:53,359 Speaker 1: money lasts. Susan Weinstock showed us just how much using 109 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:56,839 Speaker 1: the A A r p S Retirement Calculator. She's vice 110 00:06:56,880 --> 00:07:00,080 Speaker 1: president for financial Resiliency at the Group in Washington. In 111 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 1: so it asks about you your marital status, your age, 112 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:09,159 Speaker 1: or salary um. Sometimes the numbers are staggering and can 113 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 1: scare people, and we definitely don't want that. So if 114 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 1: you plug in the parameters, it shoots out both how 115 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 1: much you need to retire and maintain your lifestyle and 116 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 1: when you will start running out of money. Say you're 117 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 1: a single, sixty year old woman, your income is fifty 118 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 1: thou dollars, you save five percent towards retirement each year, 119 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 1: and you have two hundred thousand dollars in your four 120 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 1: oh one k You'll face a short fall starting at 121 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 1: age eighty if you retire at sixty five and want 122 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: to maintain your lifestyle, But if you work until age seventy, 123 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 1: you won't fall short until age eighty nine. Retirement insecurity 124 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 1: is a problem that's here to stay, as younger Americans 125 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 1: are even more likely to lack enough money to retire, 126 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 1: according to Boston College data. That's because of the decline 127 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 1: of traditional pension plans, as well as events such as 128 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 1: the Great Recession, which forced some homeowners to leave their houses. 129 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 1: It's not just the United States. Around the world, people 130 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 1: are working longer, and among the G seven economies, the 131 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 1: US ranks only behind Japan in labor force participation for 132 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 1: ages sixty five and above. If older Americans can find work, 133 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 1: it's good for the economy because it makes for more 134 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 1: trained and available labor. It's not always an easy transition, though. 135 00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 1: Like Doris O'Connor, older folks regularly need to build new 136 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:35,640 Speaker 1: skills in order to land jobs, and even then they're 137 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 1: often taking on lesser roles than they're used to. Here's 138 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:41,959 Speaker 1: Steve Benton and Dallas again the jobs that they are 139 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 1: used to and having at a certain financial level are 140 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:47,800 Speaker 1: not there anymore, and so they are having to take 141 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:51,320 Speaker 1: less and in fact it's often, uh, you almost have 142 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 1: to dumb down their resumes because people won't hire them. 143 00:08:56,920 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 1: They tend to accept lesser. If you ask folks who 144 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 1: have been on the market recently, some employers might need 145 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:11,839 Speaker 1: to adjust their mindsets around older employees. Reports of age 146 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 1: discrimination abound. Six out of ten older workers have seen 147 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:20,360 Speaker 1: or experienced age discrimination in the workplace, and of those 148 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:22,679 Speaker 1: say it is common. Based on one a a r 149 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:29,679 Speaker 1: P study research backs that up. Study of forty applications 150 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 1: for over thirteen thousand jobs in eleven states found evidence 151 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:38,200 Speaker 1: of age discrimination older applicants. Those between the ages of 152 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 1: sixty four and sixty six were more frequently denied job 153 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: interviews than middle age applicants. That bias was especially present 154 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 1: against older women, something O'Connor is very conscious of. Before 155 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 1: I got this job, I had someone tell me that 156 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 1: I was just too old and I would not never 157 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 1: ever get a job, that I should just give up. 158 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 1: And I think that's what's happening to some of my friends. 159 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: O'Connor says she's thankful that she managed to get her 160 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 1: current role. She makes thirty nine dollars a year, and 161 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 1: that's helping her to pay off eight dollars in student 162 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,640 Speaker 1: loans from her bachelor's and master's degree, which she went 163 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 1: back to get in two thousand five. She started a 164 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,959 Speaker 1: savings account, and she's even able to afford the occasional 165 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 1: extra like a bottle of wine or some meat. Now, 166 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:28,560 Speaker 1: she hopes that the conversation around hiring older workers changes. 167 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 1: Everything is about people needing medical help or medical aids, 168 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:38,560 Speaker 1: and you know, it seems to sound like older people 169 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:42,319 Speaker 1: aren't fit. We have lots of experience, we have lots 170 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 1: of wisdom, we have lots of help to give. I'm 171 00:10:46,640 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 1: Matthew Bosler with Bloomberg News in New York. Now I 172 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: came across the speaker here at the Milk and Conference 173 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 1: who spent much of her academic life thinking and writing 174 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 1: about these issues, Professor Teresa Gilla Ducci, professor of economics 175 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 1: of the New School for Social Research in New York. 176 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 1: I'm delighted to say I was able to pull her 177 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 1: into an empty meeting room to chat. Here's our interview. 178 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: Thank you very much for doing this. Now, we heard 179 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 1: quite a lot in that piece about the human side 180 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 1: of this trend of people working later in life, and 181 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:37,320 Speaker 1: it was quite a positive story by and large that 182 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 1: we heard. But I guess we should also be thinking 183 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:43,000 Speaker 1: about what it means for the economy and society as 184 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 1: a whole. Is there anything that we should worry about 185 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 1: in this trend um. There's a big chunk of the 186 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 1: American population who are over sixty five, and that's a 187 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 1: growing chunk of people who don't have enough income to 188 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 1: retire and they have to keep on working. And since 189 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 1: that group is going to grow in the tens of millions, 190 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:09,680 Speaker 1: I am focusing on that group. These are the people 191 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 1: who have to work for money. Their fallback position is 192 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:18,680 Speaker 1: basically poverty, and therefore the employer can tell them take 193 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 1: it or leave it. They are working on the employer's terms, 194 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:25,959 Speaker 1: not their own terms. And this means much more inequality 195 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 1: in America in a way that is felt. But it's 196 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 1: harder to measure than wealth, the income inequality. I mean, 197 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:36,080 Speaker 1: there's a lot of things they're worth thinking about. I 198 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 1: guess one thing I'm struck by, you know, as an economist, 199 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:41,960 Speaker 1: and when I was first learning economics, the thing that 200 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:44,439 Speaker 1: came across again and again as is the closest thing 201 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 1: to a free lunch in policy terms was raising the 202 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:50,720 Speaker 1: retirement age. It always made sense. It made the pension 203 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:54,200 Speaker 1: system more affordable. You figured it was probably kind of 204 00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:57,560 Speaker 1: good for people to work longer, and it all, you know, 205 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 1: it makes sure that reduced the amount out of time 206 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 1: that people were going to be reliant on their pension income. 207 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:08,560 Speaker 1: But the worry I always had was you're treating a 208 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:10,720 Speaker 1: lot of very different people the same, and when you're 209 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:14,280 Speaker 1: sixty five or sixty you could be very different because 210 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: you could have had a very different work pattern of work. 211 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 1: So you can have and if you look at the numbers, 212 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 1: I know you have a lot of people who have 213 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: been working since they were eighteen, working in physical labor, 214 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 1: don't get anything like the sixty. They might have dropped 215 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:31,880 Speaker 1: out by the labor force by fifty. In the UK certainly, 216 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:34,920 Speaker 1: and in the US that happens. Does that affect how 217 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 1: we think about formally changing the retirement age, even though 218 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 1: we encourage people to stay as long as they want to. 219 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 1: I really like the idea that went On the surface, 220 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 1: it sounds like a free lunch. Everybody can just work 221 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 1: a little bit longer. I hear this from my colleagues 222 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 1: to say, it's a plus plus for everybody to work 223 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 1: longer um. And they want to raise the retirement age 224 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 1: to seventy, which that people aren't guaranteed good jobs into 225 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:06,439 Speaker 1: their seventy It means that retirement benefits are cut at 226 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 1: sixty two and sixty three and so forth. So what 227 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 1: happens if you cut benefits for people who retire before 228 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 1: seventy You create inequality in the United States that we 229 00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 1: never had before. What our system had done up until 230 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 1: now has let the rich and the poor, the blue collar, 231 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 1: pink collar, light blue collar, and white collar really have 232 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 1: the same amount of retirement time. They educated work longer, 233 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 1: but they started their work life, you know later. We 234 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 1: don't count graduate school as work. Really it's it's it's effort, 235 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: it's um involvement. But it's not the same as having 236 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: started work when you're eighteen. And therefore about everybody had 237 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 1: about fifteen to sixteen years of retirement time. But if 238 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 1: you're going to cut benefits, then people who are die 239 00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 1: sooner are going to have to work longer, and you're 240 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 1: telling them you at twelve years thirteen years, where people 241 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 1: who have better educations do like their jobs work a 242 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 1: little bit longer, live a lot longer. Life expectancy in 243 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 1: the United States on average has gone up, but it's 244 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: only gone up for people above the meeting income. So 245 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 1: the top half of Americans have gotten all the longevity gains, 246 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: just like the top half of all Americans got all 247 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 1: of the wage increases. So that's just building in more 248 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 1: inequality in terms of retirement time and satisfaction at the 249 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:37,200 Speaker 1: end of our lives um in America, and we didn't 250 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 1: celebrate the equality that we had achieved before. So so 251 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 1: there's definitely lots of different size to this. You know, 252 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 1: that's there's there's some positive aspects, but also we worry 253 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 1: about the longer term entrenching some of these inequalities. What 254 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 1: does that mean for policy? I mean, how should governments 255 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 1: be thinking about it? Because it's certainly true that you know, 256 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: they are still all getting it around the world, getting 257 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 1: advised to raise their retirement age. I mean in Europe 258 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 1: that's usually like number one on the list when you 259 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 1: say how are you going to fix Europe? You know 260 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 1: a lot of countries it's often about raising the retirement age. 261 00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 1: How should we think about it? Well, first of all, 262 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 1: let's look at UM the G seven the rich large 263 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 1: countries in Europe and in Japan and the United States. 264 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 1: UM longevity for people in the United States is the shortest, 265 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 1: so people who reach sixty five and the G seven, 266 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 1: the Americans live the shortest. Look at the retirement age, 267 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 1: it's actually the Americans and the Japanese who work a 268 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 1: lot longer. So it did make sense for the Italian 269 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 1: to UM martial their policies to make sure that the 270 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 1: labor market was open to Italians who wanted to work 271 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 1: past the age of fifty five. That makes perfect sense, 272 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 1: but that broad brush does not work for the United States. 273 00:16:56,600 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 1: To have United States workers work even longer would mean 274 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:05,240 Speaker 1: that they're working more hours per week, more weeks per year, 275 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:10,119 Speaker 1: and more years per lifetime than most other countries, especially 276 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:14,240 Speaker 1: rich countries, were really are outliers. It also doesn't make 277 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:18,439 Speaker 1: sense for the economy to force older people UM to 278 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:23,160 Speaker 1: work longer without an enormous effort for training, UM and 279 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 1: for and and to eliminate age discrimination, because what we're 280 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 1: doing in the United States is asking ten thousand people 281 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 1: who reach sixty every day to stay in the labor 282 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 1: market UM when they don't have a good fallback position. 283 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 1: So we are asking um older people to go to 284 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 1: Amazon warehouses, to go behind the counters of drug stores, 285 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:52,159 Speaker 1: of CBS, to wipe tables at McDonald's um without protection. 286 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 1: That is actually a big enough number, with ten thousand 287 00:17:57,040 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 1: a day to affect the entire labor market. So our 288 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 1: biggest occupation, no growth is happening probably in the UK too, 289 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,199 Speaker 1: and personal care and hope health care. And you have 290 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,119 Speaker 1: two kinds of people working in that job. You have 291 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:15,000 Speaker 1: minority younger women who are mothers, and you have older 292 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 1: white women. It's all it's older women increasingly taking care 293 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 1: of even older women. Those are the worst jobs available 294 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:28,120 Speaker 1: that it's back breaking work. It there is evidence that 295 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:32,400 Speaker 1: work for people over sixty five of certain occupations actually 296 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:38,040 Speaker 1: brings on morbidity and foreshortens their life. So it isn't 297 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,359 Speaker 1: that's really the dark side. And these are the costs 298 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:47,399 Speaker 1: um and unattended consequences of this cheery policy for people 299 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,119 Speaker 1: to work longer. In terms of policy, we need to 300 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 1: make sure that everybody reaches sixty two sixty five, after 301 00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 1: forty five years of of a work life, with enough 302 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 1: money to walk away from a job if they want to. 303 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 1: And we have to protect every adult in a civilized 304 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:08,439 Speaker 1: society a job if they wanted Asia, discrimination should be 305 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 1: illegal and effectively a non existent everywhere. Um. But having 306 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:19,160 Speaker 1: an affirmative policy to make work attractive to older workers 307 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:21,680 Speaker 1: is very different than the policies we have in America, 308 00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 1: which is basically forcing people to work or else they'll 309 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:29,320 Speaker 1: be poor. I guess one final point is you've mentioned 310 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 1: it implicitly, but if we're going to have people around 311 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,120 Speaker 1: the world potentially working longer for a mixture of reasons, 312 00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:39,399 Speaker 1: it maybe I think in the in the US, maybe 313 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 1: some of the disproportionate amount of the growth is coming 314 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,679 Speaker 1: in these more worrying segments that you've talked about. But 315 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 1: it's also true around the world that there's plenty of 316 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:52,720 Speaker 1: quote unquote is kind of good late work happening. Do 317 00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 1: we think in general that's going to have an impact 318 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,840 Speaker 1: on productivity growth? Because that's obviously the worry when we 319 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,159 Speaker 1: already have quite low productivity growth, You know, should we 320 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 1: expect demographics to keep productivity low? Um, you're an economist, 321 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,439 Speaker 1: and um, and I think everyone can intuitively understand the 322 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:13,639 Speaker 1: economic lessons. If employers can get workers cheap, there is 323 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 1: no incentive for an employers to improve productivity, to improve 324 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 1: the way they do things, to add more UM and 325 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 1: better machines to the worker. You don't add any more capital. 326 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,439 Speaker 1: If you can get a lot of workers cheap, then 327 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:30,879 Speaker 1: productivity UM is going to drop. So I'm afraid that 328 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 1: if you just have lots of people who would rather 329 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 1: not work still have to work, that that will lower 330 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:41,240 Speaker 1: average productivity. Employers have to be in a situation where 331 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,840 Speaker 1: they have to draw people into their jobs to make 332 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: it attractive, and that's often um higher pay and probably 333 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 1: a lot more productivity. So I see this big push 334 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 1: for huge increases in labor supply to be productivity diminishing, 335 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 1: not enhancing. Professor going to thank you very much. It's 336 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 1: a it's a definitely a different kind of take and 337 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:08,440 Speaker 1: a slightly more mix take on this phenomenon we see 338 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 1: everywhere of older people working. Thank you very much. Finally, 339 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 1: because I'm in l A, of course, I have to 340 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 1: talk about the movies. Now, twenty years ago, it took 341 00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 1: the film Titanic more than three months to become the 342 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 1: first film to take one billion dollars at the box 343 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 1: office worldwide. Now, billion dollar global blockbusters are to a 344 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 1: penny almost and the final episode of the Disney owned 345 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,359 Speaker 1: Marvel Avengers series. Endgame has already taken more than a 346 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,679 Speaker 1: billion after just one record breaking opening weekend. I can't 347 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,479 Speaker 1: help thinking this tells us something about the world today, 348 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 1: other than the fact that we all like a good superhero. 349 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: I took a break from Milkin to go to the 350 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg l A Bureau to get more from our entertainment 351 00:21:56,359 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: reporter Anusia SAKUI now Inusia, for the four people left 352 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,639 Speaker 1: in the world who don't already know about it, just 353 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: talked me through those record breaking numbers for Avengers Endgame. Well, 354 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 1: there are so many stuffing. I mean, it's broken a 355 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 1: huge raft of records. It's the fastest to a billion dollars, 356 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:21,439 Speaker 1: it's the biggest opening weekend domestically and globally. It's really 357 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:25,240 Speaker 1: ready the tenth highest grossing globally of all time, and 358 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,679 Speaker 1: just after six days globally already it's earned something like 359 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,520 Speaker 1: one point through billion dollars, which is you know what 360 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 1: you'd hope after a long run, even for a very 361 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:38,000 Speaker 1: successful film. So that gives you an idea. Even just 362 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 1: after the first weekend, we haven't even got into the 363 00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 1: second weekend, and I see it had a pretty healthy 364 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,679 Speaker 1: effect on the Disney share price as well. But what 365 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 1: does it tell us about the industry that the numbers 366 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 1: now can get so big so quickly. I feel like 367 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 1: it's a combination of two factors. One is a trend 368 00:22:57,040 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 1: of globalization in the movies, which is droven mainly by 369 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 1: the opening of China. Over the past you know, decade 370 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 1: or more, um, your Hollywood studios have been able to 371 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 1: import their films into China with restrictions, you know, and 372 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,399 Speaker 1: with the current talks between the US and China, there 373 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:16,880 Speaker 1: is hope that that might open up even further. So 374 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 1: China is the second biggest movie market globally and is expected, 375 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 1: has been expected for a little while, to overtake the 376 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 1: US at some point. M So that's a really important 377 00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:31,040 Speaker 1: driver in terms of the numbers. The other thing is 378 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:36,600 Speaker 1: a trend in content where we've seen the strategy of 379 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:40,959 Speaker 1: studios shift from one where you'd have what Warner Brothers 380 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 1: still does now, which is says do something like, you know, 381 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,879 Speaker 1: twenty to thirty movies a year, which can vary in 382 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,400 Speaker 1: size from the big blockbuster that might cost a couple 383 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 1: of hundred million dollars two smaller films you know, maybe 384 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,680 Speaker 1: twenty million dollars and cater to a range of audiences. 385 00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 1: Disney has become the far and away massive leader in 386 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:07,639 Speaker 1: this industry by focusing on known branded content, if you like, 387 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:13,160 Speaker 1: known intellectual property Marvel, Star Wars, pixar Um, and its 388 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:16,960 Speaker 1: own classics to release maybe ten films a year, and 389 00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:18,560 Speaker 1: each of those are just very big. So they do 390 00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,880 Speaker 1: a smaller number of very big bets and they've cornered 391 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 1: the market. I mean, they have something like you know 392 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,640 Speaker 1: of the box office, and that's before they bought twentieth 393 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 1: Century Fox last year. I mean from thinking about it 394 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,560 Speaker 1: as an economist, and actually some of the things we've 395 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 1: talked about already on Stephonomics is the nature of globalization 396 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 1: and what it does to the corporate sector, the nature 397 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,560 Speaker 1: of companies, but also what it does to distribution of 398 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 1: incomes worldwide. I mean, just on the company side, the 399 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 1: fact that we now have a world and I guess 400 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 1: technology has been part of this, but technology combined with 401 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:56,680 Speaker 1: globalization produces these companies that are just bigger and more 402 00:24:56,720 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 1: globally dominant than any we've had in history. And you know, 403 00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,480 Speaker 1: we see that play out with this film and just 404 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 1: the numbers that you described with Disney. I mean, it 405 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 1: wouldn't have been possible, a new suspect um fifty years ago, 406 00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 1: for a single company to have that kind of dominance worldwide. Well, no, 407 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,920 Speaker 1: and what's happening is that there is consolidation in Hollywood 408 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,400 Speaker 1: driven by a number of factors, you know, streaming, and 409 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,720 Speaker 1: that technology has meant that people now can stay home 410 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:26,480 Speaker 1: and have an equally riveting time at the movies. Another 411 00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 1: thing that's happened is rising ticket prices. Theaters are charging 412 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:35,119 Speaker 1: more for supposedly a better experience, um, you know, reclining 413 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:39,680 Speaker 1: seats and bigger screens. That's that's how they're managing to, 414 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,399 Speaker 1: especially in the US, get to record breaking box office 415 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,119 Speaker 1: figures that they have done in the past couple of years. 416 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:49,320 Speaker 1: Because actually attendance has been stagnating in the US. It's 417 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,480 Speaker 1: only in China and in the Asia region where we're 418 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:56,199 Speaker 1: seeing growth in movie going. Thank you very much, my pleasure. 419 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:11,040 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Stephanomics. Come back next week for 420 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,080 Speaker 1: more on the ground insights into the global economy. In 421 00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,840 Speaker 1: the meantime, you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal website, 422 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:19,720 Speaker 1: app or wherever you get your podcast If you like 423 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 1: this show, we would love it if you took the 424 00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:23,440 Speaker 1: time to rate and review it so it can reach 425 00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 1: more listeners. For more news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics, 426 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 1: follow at Economics on Twitter, and you can also find 427 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:34,600 Speaker 1: me on at my Stephanomics. The story in this episode 428 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:38,200 Speaker 1: was reported by Genus Malik and narrated by Matthew Bosler. 429 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 1: Was produced by Magnus Hendrickson and edited by Scott Lamman, 430 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 1: who is also the executive producer of Stephanomics. Special thanks 431 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:50,120 Speaker 1: this week to Professor Teresa Gilla Ducci and the Nusha Sekuli. 432 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,440 Speaker 1: Francesca Levy is the head of Bloomberg Podcast