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Speaker 1: Yea. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm term Keene

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Speaker 1: jay Leie. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. The

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Speaker 1: blame game continues, China's Ministry of Commerce spokesman saying the

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Speaker 1: following that china stance on the talks has been clear.

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Speaker 1: If the US wants to resume talks, they should show

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Speaker 1: sincerity and correct their wrong practices. Only on a basis

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Speaker 1: of equality and mutual respect can talks continue. It's the

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Speaker 1: latest sign that China has no intention of making concessions

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Speaker 1: to the United States to restart talks, which of course

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Speaker 1: collapsed in the last couple of weeks to discuss Some

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Speaker 1: pleased to say that Chrisma Range joins US now give

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Speaker 1: Belly Funds Co. Chief investment officer. Good morning to career,

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Speaker 1: good morning, glad to be here. So let's just start.

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Speaker 1: Are we digging in for the long hole here? It

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Speaker 1: seems that way. It seems that the market is discounting

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Speaker 1: an extended trade war or a complete repositioning of the

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Speaker 1: relationship with China over the long term. If this is

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Speaker 1: a permanent feature, at least for the next couple of years,

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Speaker 1: what does that mean for how you put money to work. Well,

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Speaker 1: it means that you've got to be probably a little

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Speaker 1: bit more cautious about companies with exposure to China, either

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Speaker 1: indirectly or directly. Um, and you've got to be a

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Speaker 1: little bit more price discipline. So UM, I think there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of uncertainty about unintended consequences of what might

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Speaker 1: happen here and and how far the Chinese and the

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Speaker 1: US might push these negotiations. And that's why we were

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Speaker 1: risk off this morning. Typically, when we are on risk

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Speaker 1: off for more than one morning, the risk aversion begins

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Speaker 1: to build. The strategists come out on Wall Street and

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Speaker 1: the value tourists begin to build the command of growth,

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Speaker 1: and they start saying, now is the time the value

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Speaker 1: is going to work. You're the guide is always in value.

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Speaker 1: Walk me through why that's true or why it isn't. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think it's gonna take the market down more than

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Speaker 1: one percent in a year. That's been a fiftcent to

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Speaker 1: get me excited. But um, you know, I think I

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Speaker 1: think the uh. The move to value has been after

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Speaker 1: obviously a decade long run for growth. It's I think

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Speaker 1: driven more by what's happening with interest rates and other

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Speaker 1: elements like that. So, um, you know, listen, we're finding

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Speaker 1: value pretty much in every market. Why are we down more?

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Speaker 1: If we were blind, if we had no market quotes here,

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Speaker 1: and if we were running this by abacus, if we

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Speaker 1: have the news flow we'd have, it'd be dum and gloom,

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Speaker 1: and yet we're down three four thousand, seven seven six

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Speaker 1: on the clothes. Why aren't we done more? Yeah? You know,

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Speaker 1: I would agree. Um, the market I think is given um.

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Speaker 1: The president perhaps more slack than I would have expected

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Speaker 1: in dealing with China, and I think that is actually

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Speaker 1: probably contributing to worries that this will be an extended affair.

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Speaker 1: Depends where you look. Without Tom, if you look at

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Speaker 1: the margin market equities, we've had an almost ten percent move.

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Speaker 1: We don't look at that. We look at Apple, Amazon

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Speaker 1: and six other stars. Well, Apple is an interesting company

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Speaker 1: to talk about. Take take Apple for instance. Apple could

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Speaker 1: have some truss in shin. There are things that you

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Speaker 1: can model tariffs, there are other things you can't. And

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Speaker 1: that's patunity. I mean, do you look at Tim Cooking

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Speaker 1: Company and say, doom and loom there, what is it China?

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Speaker 1: They're not going to sell phones in China. Means that's simple.

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Speaker 1: But Tom, that's the point. How do you how do

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Speaker 1: you model the prospect of pushback against American product in China?

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Speaker 1: You can't model for that. It's very difficult. Obviously, it's

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Speaker 1: multifaceted with regard to Apple because the seller into China

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Speaker 1: are they get their supplies from China, and there are

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Speaker 1: a lot of just other things, other ways the Chinese

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Speaker 1: gould fight backs. The market draw down on Apple is

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Speaker 1: fifteen ish per cent, moves like on the edge of

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Speaker 1: beer market. The other issue we've got to talk about

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Speaker 1: is the banks. Chris, most people consider that to be

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Speaker 1: an area of value that has got to deliver. We

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Speaker 1: have so much pessimism baked into the financials here in

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Speaker 1: the United States. You actually disagree with that. It's a

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Speaker 1: value investor. You don't like financials. That's quite interesting, walk

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Speaker 1: me through it. Yeah. Historically, we we have not been

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Speaker 1: big investors in banks bank banks because for a number

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Speaker 1: of reasons. One um, they tend to be commoditized. The

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Speaker 1: barrow short land long business. Uh they uh in many

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Speaker 1: cases are black boxes, like the big banks of the world,

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Speaker 1: and and they periodically blow up for lots of reasons, oil,

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Speaker 1: emerging markets, uh, mortgages, etcetera. And you know, we're maybe

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Speaker 1: seeing that in Europe today. That might have been true

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Speaker 1: before the financial crisis, is it less true now in

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Speaker 1: the United States because a lot of people will line

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Speaker 1: up to toun Tom and I that they are more

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Speaker 1: like utilities. Now that's safer institutions, you can rely on

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Speaker 1: them more sure. But people probably would have told you

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Speaker 1: that story, you know at many other points in history.

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Speaker 1: Clearly the banks are better capitalized today than they were

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Speaker 1: in two thousand seven. His use of cash changed. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there's been a lot of splash about share buybacks increased.

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Speaker 1: In all that, Mario's is just vigilant about giving back

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Speaker 1: the money. That's the best use of cash. How how

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Speaker 1: is the use of cash and I should say forward

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Speaker 1: into two thousand twenty, Well, it's it's not always the

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Speaker 1: best use of cash. I mean those we're hiring management

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Speaker 1: teams to put capital to work at rates above cost

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Speaker 1: of capital, attractive returns on equity, and ideally we'd we'd

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Speaker 1: love matachment teams to find more of those opportunities. If

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Speaker 1: they can't, then they probably should give the money back,

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Speaker 1: if in the form of buybacks, if the stocks represented.

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Speaker 1: But the money question here is is what you observe

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Speaker 1: at gibelly. Is it financial engineering that we're seeing this

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Speaker 1: money thrown back to shareholders or is there a real

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Speaker 1: intelligence to it? No, there's there's real intelligent. If your

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Speaker 1: stock is cheap, you can increase the earnings and the

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Speaker 1: value available for our making shareholders by by buying back

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Speaker 1: your stock. And those by the way, those two that

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Speaker 1: money just doesn't go into a pit. It gets redeployed

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Speaker 1: in the economy in companies with a better growth opportunity.

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Speaker 1: To tell me about sleepy food stocks right now, I

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Speaker 1: mean the craft Times was a disaster. The bad will

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Speaker 1: there has been ugly. But is there an opportunity? I

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Speaker 1: think I think things growing to three here. I think

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Speaker 1: the counterpoint to craft Ties is to look at the

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Speaker 1: company that separated from which is Mondolas, which has been

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Speaker 1: a terrific stock. They've got a very good portfolio Oreo Cookies,

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Speaker 1: amongst other things. Snacking is has been very much on trend,

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Speaker 1: and they have a very good management that has that

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Speaker 1: has managed a company. Well, can you tell the person

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Speaker 1: in the room that's like carbohydrate free cutt and chiseled.

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Speaker 1: I think he was looking at me. You cut them

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Speaker 1: back on cops as well. You can get oreos and

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Speaker 1: all different flavors. And they actually just came out with

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Speaker 1: a pole that they are among the top ten most

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Speaker 1: favorite brands by gen Z but the favorite of our

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Speaker 1: housing secretary too. Yes, we've heard had But seriously, how

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Speaker 1: do our listeners discern to go with Mandalis or with

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Speaker 1: Craft a year and a half ago? Yeah, well, listen,

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Speaker 1: that's why you have industry experts who are following what's

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Speaker 1: going on with with the industry, what the trends are.

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Speaker 1: For example, another trend in food might surprise you is

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Speaker 1: frozen food is back, and frozen food is much different

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Speaker 1: than what you and I remember as the uh TV dinners.

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Speaker 1: This is very These are tasty food packaged well, very convenient.

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Speaker 1: What you're telling me, Swanson, mystery meat isn't a tasty dinner.

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you're probably not gonna find that. Do you know.

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Speaker 1: I'm the only person east of the Mississippi River who

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Speaker 1: went to college and the food got better you're trashing

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Speaker 1: your mom conversation. Do you understand what a TV dinner is?

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Speaker 1: I do. We've talked about it before multiple time. Did

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Speaker 1: you have them in the United Kings? I never had it?

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Speaker 1: Had millennial millennials. They buy frozen food and they heat

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Speaker 1: it up very commediently, and it tastes good and then

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Speaker 1: you make money off this. What's the what's the One

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Speaker 1: of the leaders in the in that industry, in that

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Speaker 1: sector is ConAgra Foods, which was very much a sleepy

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Speaker 1: food company until new management came along and reinvigorated. Um,

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Speaker 1: what they're doing. So, like a lot of industries, whether

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Speaker 1: it's media, which is kind of my Bailey Wick or others.

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Speaker 1: Um changes, second changes, change behavior, driving innovation. Is the

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Speaker 1: movie business dead? The movie businesses is alive? And well

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Speaker 1: it's eleven billion dollar box office in the United Estates.

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Speaker 1: China is going to surpass that in the next couple

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Speaker 1: of years. Uh And um, you know, the way you

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Speaker 1: view movies may be different. You may be sitting on

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Speaker 1: your couch watching them on Netflix or another service. But

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Speaker 1: the but the movie business is still in demand. Have

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Speaker 1: you finished talking about your long weekend? The movies? The

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Speaker 1: frozen food. What's going on this? I don't I can

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Speaker 1: say that when when A Ventures did a billion eight

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Speaker 1: global you know that we had a global reach yesterday?

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Speaker 1: Were you flying back from me? L Garth, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: say thanks to Chris Chrisma, Raggie, thank you very much,

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Speaker 1: thank you Sonya Meskin with a standard charter. They're wonderful

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Speaker 1: expertise within the international and emerging market as well. Sonya,

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Speaker 1: let me start with it's uh standard charter question? Is

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Speaker 1: Jerome Powell's central banker to the standard charter? World? Is

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Speaker 1: the central banker to e m Um, Well, there's an

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Speaker 1: excellent question. I think you know, the FAT definitely has

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Speaker 1: a domestic mandate, but it's very clear that this particular

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Speaker 1: FAT is quite a tune towards going on abroad as well.

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Speaker 1: So they cited global growth concerns, um and they've been

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Speaker 1: quite a tune to them, especially in recent months. UM

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Speaker 1: And I think that in that sense, the FED understands

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Speaker 1: that there is strong interconnectedness between the US economy and

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Speaker 1: the global economy. Last year, what we saw Sonya through

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Speaker 1: was a m start to crack in spring Europe. Soon

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Speaker 1: follows we had problems globally X US through the whole

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Speaker 1: of the year, yet the Federal Reserve didn't really respond

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Speaker 1: until the market started to create a in a back half.

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Speaker 1: Has anything changed for the FED? I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's it's a difficult mandate in the sense that the

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Speaker 1: US is obviously quite insulated from some of the global

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Speaker 1: economic generations. Not fully insulated, of course, but we are

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Speaker 1: largely served this oriented economy, a good sector. I think

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Speaker 1: was reacted quite a bit faster um to some of

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Speaker 1: the slowdown in growth that we saw globally. But I

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Speaker 1: think for the FED, just as we mentioned right before

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Speaker 1: we came on online here, um, the job market is very,

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Speaker 1: very strong, and that's obviously part of their mandate, and

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Speaker 1: they were almost exceeding I think, um their mandate in

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Speaker 1: terms of what's going on in the labor market, and

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Speaker 1: they were quite close in flash inflation mandate as well.

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Speaker 1: So I think it made sense for them to be

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Speaker 1: the hockeys last year. So you spent seven years at

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Speaker 1: the FED, you know, in the nitty gritty, the nittey

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Speaker 1: grittey we call that of the FED. When we say

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Speaker 1: their data dependent, what does that actually means? The machinery

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Speaker 1: of the Federal reserve system. I think it means that

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Speaker 1: they want to be as agile as possible because just

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Speaker 1: like the just like the markets, just like investors, the

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Speaker 1: FED doesn't have a crystal ball. They're trying to make

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Speaker 1: their best decisions with the information and that they've got,

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Speaker 1: and the data is the best information that can go by.

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Speaker 1: I think that's what it means in a nutshell, Well,

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Speaker 1: the best information is out there. One of our themes

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Speaker 1: and this is a good sonya that you were at

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Speaker 1: the London School of Economics is I'm been touting a

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Speaker 1: high paper out of LSE from Professor bron Richard Bronck

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Speaker 1: from a number of years ago. Do you know the

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Speaker 1: data out there? Do you know the market pricing out there?

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Speaker 1: Do you have confidence in what markets tell you right now?

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Speaker 1: Given all the negative interest rate paper and given maybe

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Speaker 1: the mystery of China GDP, do you do you have

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Speaker 1: a confidence in the data that's being handed to you.

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Speaker 1: I do. I do I think that in the in

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Speaker 1: the aggregate, especially on the national level of the Chinese data,

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Speaker 1: UM I have confidence in as well. And of course

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Speaker 1: the U S date I think they really UM they

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Speaker 1: have some very robust processes in collecting if nothing is perfect,

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Speaker 1: no process is perfect. But I think this is definitely

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Speaker 1: um an area where while we can have some improvement,

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Speaker 1: I also have a good confidence in the trends that

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Speaker 1: we're seeing. Sonya, thank you Standard today. Thank you so much,

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Speaker 1: Paul Sween and I enjoy speaking to Gene monster her

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Speaker 1: he is a legend in technology at his Loop Ventures,

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Speaker 1: He's taken a more thoughtful approach to the product mix

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Speaker 1: of companies and we will do Tesla and then Apple.

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Speaker 1: Here Jania made worldwide headlines today with a precautionary measure

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Speaker 1: approach to Tesla defined precautionary well tom of Tesla's businesses

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Speaker 1: in China and undoubtedly that's going to be impacted by

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Speaker 1: some of these terroiffs. And so what we've done specifically

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Speaker 1: is taking our estimates down for China business from seventy

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Speaker 1: thousand units this year to forty thousand's. That was a

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Speaker 1: big clip And the reason is that these tariffs are

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Speaker 1: likely going to have an impact on their business. One

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Speaker 1: is that I think there's a high probability that the

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Speaker 1: China actually puts imports tariffs. And second is the Chinese

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Speaker 1: consumer will likely boycott Tesla products because of they represent

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Speaker 1: US brands, these trade tensions should have an impact on

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Speaker 1: their business, So g one of the things that's really

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Speaker 1: changed in the narrative of the Tesla story. We note

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Speaker 1: that the stock is down about from it's high, the

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Speaker 1: bonds are blowing out. It's a concern about demand ultimate demand.

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Speaker 1: There's always been issues of hey, can they actually manufactured

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Speaker 1: cars at scale? But one of the questions now that

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Speaker 1: seems to be seeping into some of the work from

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Speaker 1: Wall Street analysts is what's the overall demand for electric

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Speaker 1: vehicles and for Tesla? What is your sense on that front?

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Speaker 1: It's two fold, Paul. First, is that the near ternament

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Speaker 1: really is somewhat of a wild card, in part because

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Speaker 1: of this very unique aspect of Tesla's demander. More recently,

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Speaker 1: over the last three quarters, they're essentially two years of

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Speaker 1: pent up demand and anticipation of Model three. So the

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Speaker 1: unit numbers that we saw in this September, December, and

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Speaker 1: March quarter for Model three were impacted by essentially consumers

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Speaker 1: waiting for a long time. So as we start to

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Speaker 1: exit this pent up demand period, it gets to your

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Speaker 1: point is what is the underlying demand for Tesla vehicles?

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Speaker 1: And I think in the near term that is a

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Speaker 1: wild card. The company has continues to reiterate its guidance

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Speaker 1: of three D four hundred thousand units, which should be

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Speaker 1: up about almost two year year, but analysts now think

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Speaker 1: that that number is going to be three hundred thousand

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Speaker 1: or below. And so the most simple way to put

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Speaker 1: it is in the near term demand is essentially unknown,

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Speaker 1: and that's why the stock continues to reel along with

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Speaker 1: these UH China tariff tensions. Separately, I think there's the

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Speaker 1: demand question around the long term ev demand, and this

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Speaker 1: is something that we would call an undeniable truth is

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Speaker 1: that car should be electrified. Gas engines are are are

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Speaker 1: backwards in many ways not worth getting into here, but

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Speaker 1: what's noteworthy is that one or two of cars sold

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Speaker 1: of they called ninety million cars sold globally are electrified

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Speaker 1: today and that eventually is going to be a hundred percent.

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Speaker 1: And so the calculus around the test of the story

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Speaker 1: is more or less can the company survive until we

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Speaker 1: get the sweet spot of the curve? What's the unit

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Speaker 1: elasticity to the cash burn? I mean, that's what this

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Speaker 1: comes down to. They got X billions of dollars laying around,

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Speaker 1: you can always go raise a next marginal billions or

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Speaker 1: loop ventures. I get that, but what's the elasticity? You're

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Speaker 1: marked down on unit sales? So what it comes down to,

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Speaker 1: that's the exact question, is this, Uh yeah, two point

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Speaker 1: seven billion dollars. So they've got called five billion in

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Speaker 1: the bank. They can run it three hundred. They need

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Speaker 1: to sell three hundred thousand vehicles in each of the

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Speaker 1: next two years. Uh. If they so, three thousand vehicles

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Speaker 1: for each and the next two years will essentially be

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Speaker 1: down to two billion in cash, which means that's there.

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Speaker 1: That's the lowest cap because they operating. So really the

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Speaker 1: answer your question, Tom if they need to hit that

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Speaker 1: three hundred thousand per year, and that's essentially where analysts

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Speaker 1: are at for this year. Down negative to VIX sixteen

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Speaker 1: point seven eight yields again in exactly three basis points

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Speaker 1: on the tenure two point three five Gene Munster with

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Speaker 1: us Loup Ventures is he moves global headlines today on Tesla, Jane,

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Speaker 1: we've got to ask you about Apple. You started out

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Speaker 1: talking about China and Tesla. Are you gonna need to

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Speaker 1: mark down your iPhone unit sales? I think the street

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Speaker 1: will be marking down Uh, their sale. They I don't

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Speaker 1: want to say what exactly we're going to do, but

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Speaker 1: I think there's a street will and let me put

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Speaker 1: some context around that. This is different than the Tesla

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Speaker 1: China tiariff impact. But just quickly to go through it

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Speaker 1: is it of China's business is in call it the

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Speaker 1: mainland China, and effectively what you're gonna see is this, UH,

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Speaker 1: there's the tariffs, direct tariffs, and we feel strongly that

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Speaker 1: that will not impact Apple. They will not have terrorifts

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Speaker 1: put on on importing iPhones in the US, and likewise

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Speaker 1: the Chinese won't put tariffs in their pies. We recently

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Speaker 1: spoke to a former US trade official and what was

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Speaker 1: most surprising about this conversation is even people in the

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Speaker 1: know don't know how this is gonna play out. So

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Speaker 1: and caution, UH, just some measured UH measures steps as

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Speaker 1: you think about the terrorists. But we don't think that

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Speaker 1: will have an impact. But we do believe, as I

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Speaker 1: think most of the street, that there's going to be

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Speaker 1: some backlash boycotting of the iPhone in part because of

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Speaker 1: the tariffs and separately what's going on with Wawei and

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Speaker 1: likely with this hike vision. UH. This is an unprecedented

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Speaker 1: chess match that's going on that will probably have a

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Speaker 1: near term impact on Chinese iPhone units. So, Gene in

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Speaker 1: the interim, is this a story need to be supported

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Speaker 1: the apples to worry by the services side of the story,

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Speaker 1: given that we have so much uncertainty about iPhone tipments. Yes,

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Speaker 1: services continues to be an important part, and you're exactly right, Paul,

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Speaker 1: that needs to be probably step up in the near term.

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Speaker 1: I think what what what will effectively the way this

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Speaker 1: will play out is that over the next few quarters

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Speaker 1: you're going to see uncertainty and some hand ringing from

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Speaker 1: investors about what the China iPhone number is going to be.

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Speaker 1: But I think as we progress there is and that

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Speaker 1: will the services will be an important part to kind

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Speaker 1: of offset that negative piece. But I think longer term, uh,

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Speaker 1: if you think about the next three to five years,

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Speaker 1: Apple is probably the best play on five G, not

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Speaker 1: only because they're gonna see an uptick in iPhone sales

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Speaker 1: that is not anticipated by the street, but also there's

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Speaker 1: new services that can be built, like around augmented reality

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Speaker 1: impacted by five G. And so I see this ultimately

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Speaker 1: as a near term impact called it six months impact.

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Speaker 1: Do you gotta leave it there, Gene Monster, Thank you

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Speaker 1: so much. Luke venture is greatly, greatly appreciated. This is

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Speaker 1: the interview of the day, the interview of May, and

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Speaker 1: maybe the interview of the year. If you have a

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Speaker 1: pulse about China and it's adjacent c we are China US.

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Speaker 1: We are Beijing Washington. Donald Gimble, who you have seen

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Speaker 1: sipping tea at the Fullerton Hotel in Singapore, or at

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Speaker 1: the Mandarin up there in the Umbar in Hong Kong,

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Speaker 1: or in various important abodes in Tasmania and in Sydney.

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Speaker 1: His for years been covering Southeast Asia. Don you are

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Speaker 1: with c ib C, you are just a foundational knowledge

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Speaker 1: base of China and its adjacency of the South China Sea.

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Speaker 1: How are they doing given all the back and forth

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Speaker 1: between Beijing and Washington. It's the question of the year,

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Speaker 1: maybe of the maybe of the decade. But continue um.

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Speaker 1: I was in Beijing a couple of months ago visiting

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Speaker 1: with people in government and with the UH companies in

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Speaker 1: which we invest. And things in China are strained because

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Speaker 1: because of this trade embargo, and there's concerned, but the

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Speaker 1: economy is pretty strong growth This year is slowing. Everybody

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Speaker 1: knows that, but it's slowing to six percent. It's not

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Speaker 1: a negative growth if the tigers are less tigery. Do

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Speaker 1: the corporations you are expert in, do they adapt in

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Speaker 1: adjust like us multinationals? How do they adapt to the

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Speaker 1: new Asian realities? Uh, everybody's feeling the pain, but everybody's optimistic.

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Speaker 1: So the Chinese and the last couple of decades have

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Speaker 1: gone from sort of the communist socialist theory of how

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Speaker 1: you run a business to being much more capitalistic. So

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Speaker 1: they are in fact pulling in their horns. They are

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Speaker 1: having problems with with what do you do with all

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Speaker 1: these workers that we have that we used to say

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Speaker 1: the reason we have companies is because we employ people.

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Speaker 1: They're now trying to make money because they have foreign

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Speaker 1: shareholders and they are interested in making money. So the

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Speaker 1: Chinese mentality is changed dramatically, and you can see it

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Speaker 1: with the state operating companies specifically, where where the quality

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Speaker 1: of what they're doing is improving and they're having the

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Speaker 1: same problems that we have when we when we have

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Speaker 1: a slowdown and we have excess capacity and we have

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Speaker 1: excess workers, and so there is concern that the slowdown,

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Speaker 1: which uh is affecting them much more than it's affecting

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Speaker 1: the United States. Um, this is something everybody's looking at.

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Speaker 1: But they're saying, you know, we're having to slow down

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Speaker 1: this year, but looking out to next year, even with

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Speaker 1: the even with the embargoes, even with trade restrictions with

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Speaker 1: the United States, there's plenty of room for US to

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Speaker 1: continue to expand domestically as well as in many other parts.

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Speaker 1: That's what the Belton Road is all about, is building

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Speaker 1: up alternatives to the United States. So don as we

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Speaker 1: think about these negotiations here, what do you think the

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Speaker 1: Chinese would like to achieve here? Another great question, Um,

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Speaker 1: the Chinese are in favor of China. The United States,

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Speaker 1: if you listen to the President, is in favor of

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Speaker 1: the United States. So for us to think that they're

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Speaker 1: going to say, well, whatever the US wants, we're gonna do. Uh. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we're bigger than they are. But they're a growing, dynamic economy.

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Speaker 1: So the Chinese want access and they want technology. They are,

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Speaker 1: in my opinion, pretty much where Japan was in about

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Speaker 1: nineteen and uh, you know, after the war, after the

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Speaker 1: Second World War, UM, Japan was making little American flags

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Speaker 1: and junk and uh. As time went by, the products

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Speaker 1: became better, they began to innovate, they began to to

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Speaker 1: surpass what they were copying. And that's where Chinese is today.

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Speaker 1: And they want technology. I mean, the biggest problem we

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Speaker 1: have is is the theft of intellectual property because that's

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Speaker 1: they're getting that technology, and so they're going to have

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Speaker 1: to figure out how to get it without stealing it.

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Speaker 1: And uh, the Chinese, sorry, the Japanese did that and

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Speaker 1: I think the Chinese will. Okay, Well, can you go

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Speaker 1: long Singapore here? I mean, just as a basic you

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Speaker 1: look at all the ms. I'm just picking on Singapore here.

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Speaker 1: But to the Don Gimbal expertise, do you go long Tasmania,

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Speaker 1: do you go long Australia? Do you go long Singapore?

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Speaker 1: What's the choice? There's the opportunity. Yesterday I was at

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Speaker 1: an all day seminar here in town and survived. It

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Speaker 1: was a very long day, I gotta tell you. But

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Speaker 1: it was sponsored by the Development Bank of Singapore. They

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Speaker 1: do it here in New York every year. And I

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Speaker 1: met with seven reasonably good strong companies, Singaporean companies as

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Speaker 1: well as the Singapore Stock Is change representative here and UH,

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Speaker 1: I would say Singapore, which has been under pressure for

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Speaker 1: the last few years, is bottoming out. And yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think if you're a patient, yeah you can. How do

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00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 1: you adjust for currency? I mean you're an equity guy,

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00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 1: you're buying companies and that you know, we're all fixated

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00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 1: on seven you one right now. My eyes are failing me.

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00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 1: Six point nine two the job by the way, negative

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Speaker 1: three and four in the vix seventeen point to six,

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Speaker 1: Don gimba with a c IBC. How do you do?

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00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,920
Speaker 1: You just have a confidence that that currency markets will

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00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 1: compensate for all this gyration. Tom, You and I have

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00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 1: been in this business a long time. I unlike sweetie right,

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00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 1: welcome to the club. Thank you. Um you know I

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00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:38,399
Speaker 1: I've I've watched markets for just about fifty years now,

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00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 1: and I gotta tell you, you gotta be patient. You've

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00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 1: got to look for quality. You gotta look at currencies

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00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 1: and you've got to say, you know, they go up

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00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 1: and they go down. But what you want our companies

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00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 1: with great management and income in UH countries that have

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00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 1: stable governments, and Singapore certainly qualifies on in all respect.

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00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,680
Speaker 1: And there's some terrific companies in Singapore, as there are

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00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:06,359
Speaker 1: in Australia, as there are in Indonesia. If you look hard, uh,

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00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 1: as as there are in the in the People's Republic,

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00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 1: and you know, it's just a matter of breathe. Just

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00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 1: calm down, folks. The market is weak today, it will

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00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: be strong in another few days. I mean, it's it's

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00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 1: just Uh. Markets are not over priced. The United States

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00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 1: is a very attractive place to invest. Southeast Asia is

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00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:28,920
Speaker 1: a very attractive place, and their stocks, the good companies

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00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 1: are selling at very reasonable multiple. So if you're a

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00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:36,679
Speaker 1: patient investor, you can find good quality stocks and reasonable

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00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:40,679
Speaker 1: valuations with some dividends and dividend growth. These this is

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00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 1: where you want to be. You don't want to be

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00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 1: in the in in ten year treasuries at two and

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00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:49,879
Speaker 1: a half percent. You know, it's craziness. So our corporations,

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00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 1: you think people are stepping back their investment in some

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00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,439
Speaker 1: of the Southeast Asia, maybe not just China because of

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00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 1: these trade concerns. Are you sensing that corporations, maybe Corporate

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00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 1: America or Corporate Europe is just maybe stepping back a

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00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 1: little bit. I think they a lot of people have

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00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 1: put it on hold. Uh, they need to do it,

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00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,439
Speaker 1: but they're on hold right the second, Don Gimble, thank

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00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:11,640
Speaker 1: you so much, greatly appreciate it. Never can we we're

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00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:13,120
Speaker 1: not gonna talk to you. Can you call us bar

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00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 1: side at Fulton's or you're having a green tea sometime

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00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,680
Speaker 1: in Singapore. That there you go, You're done. Gimbel with

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00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 1: c ibc uh with with really a wonderful perspective on Asia.

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00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 1: Has been with us for years and I can't think

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00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:28,679
Speaker 1: of him more. Not not exciting, but interesting time for

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00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 1: Southeast Asia, South China. See, we didn't even get to

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00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 1: the Philippines were deterriitated better than good the other day.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and

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00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:44,480
Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast

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00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before

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00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:52,639
Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Radio