Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays
Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on applecar Player, Android Auto with
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get
Speaker 2: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: Henrietta trez joins us. She's a managing partner, Vida partner.
Speaker 4: She's the one that really gives us a sense of
Speaker 4: kind of what's happening on this election and on the
Speaker 4: political side, how it might affect markets here, Henriette, As
Speaker 4: David was just mentioning, he's gonna be out there in
Speaker 4: the field trying to get a sense of how this
Speaker 4: is going to play out over the next week or so.
Speaker 4: What is your sense between now and election day, Henriette,
Speaker 4: Is there anything that might move the needle.
Speaker 3: One way or the other? Or are we pretty much
Speaker 3: where we are?
Speaker 5: You know, we're seeing a lot of really robust turnout
Speaker 5: from Republicans in rural areas right now. That's the main
Speaker 5: theme of the last week of early voting. So in
Speaker 5: states like Nevada, I'm confident saying, you know, this is
Speaker 5: a very bad position for Democrats to be in the
Speaker 5: state of Nevada, which is a critical swing state, but
Speaker 5: it's not necessarily translating elsewhere yet. That's because different states
Speaker 5: have different voting patterns and in person early regulations, like
Speaker 5: the state of Pennsylvania for example. So there's a lot
Speaker 5: of shift. But this week is really an integral one
Speaker 5: to watch. You want to watch the suburban vote and
Speaker 5: the youth vote. Those demographics disproportionately start voting this week before,
Speaker 5: and it had been principally an older, white, rural voter,
Speaker 5: and a lot of that is Republicans cannibalizing their election
Speaker 5: day vote from twenty twenty. So this week should give
Speaker 5: us some new information to see whether it's going to
Speaker 5: be a scenario where Democrats continue to stay home as
Speaker 5: they did during the first week of early voting, or
Speaker 5: if they're going to start coming out, which would be
Speaker 5: disproportionately again your urban, suburban and younger voters, which is
Speaker 5: a demographic that this cycle is skewing Democratic, particularly on
Speaker 5: the suburban side, which I think is where we should
Speaker 5: really be focused.
Speaker 6: Henry and I helped me understand the metamorphosis of the
Speaker 6: Republicans as it comes to the early vote, because it
Speaker 6: was something that during the last presidential election. The one
Speaker 6: before that, Donald Trump was not an enthusiast for he
Speaker 6: was not encouraging his supporters to vote early. What has
Speaker 6: changed and sort of how does it or how could
Speaker 6: it affect what we see after election day in terms
Speaker 6: of the way in which Republicans in particular look at
Speaker 6: these votes as they're talent.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and it really does need to change, otherwise Democrats
Speaker 5: are going to get wiped out across the swing states.
Speaker 5: So right now what we're seeing is a material shift
Speaker 5: from twenty twenty in terms of early voting.
Speaker 7: And this is a result. The metamorphosis comes.
Speaker 5: From millions of dollars in Republican Party operation explanations or
Speaker 5: sort of explainers to voters that you should vote early
Speaker 5: in person. So Republicans are disproportionately voting early in person,
Speaker 5: whereas Democrats have an advantage in the mail in ballot.
Speaker 5: So to get really granular for you, the voters out
Speaker 5: in Nevada who are able to vote early in person
Speaker 5: are doing so in rural areas.
Speaker 7: But then you have Clark County.
Speaker 5: Where there's the disproportionate share of Democrats and ninety percent
Speaker 5: of the electorate, and they mostly vote via mail in
Speaker 5: ballot that now all in the Vatans get So there's
Speaker 5: a lot of granular changes that have happened since twenty twenty.
Speaker 5: But the rule of thumb is that Republicans now are
Speaker 5: voting in person early, where Democrats are favoring mail in
Speaker 5: balloting early, and as I mentioned this week, is when
Speaker 5: a lot of the youth vote will go and vote
Speaker 5: in person early. But there is an indication that will
Speaker 5: have less of a blue wall going into election day,
Speaker 5: but also less of a red wave on election day
Speaker 5: again because they're voting early at about double the rate
Speaker 5: Democrats are. So it is going through quite a bit
Speaker 5: of a shift and creating a lot of problems for
Speaker 5: people like me who are obviously trying to track against
Speaker 5: a very difficult copier in twenty twenty, which was a pandemic.
Speaker 4: Anyway, is any party any particular more advantage or less
Speaker 4: advantage in getting out the vote.
Speaker 5: When it comes to ground game, I think it's clear
Speaker 5: that the Democrats have a better ground game. Something like
Speaker 5: three hundred and twenty six field offices nationwide where the
Speaker 5: Trump campaign famously does not disclose its numbers. I think
Speaker 5: the Trump camp has farmed out a lot of it's
Speaker 5: get out the vote to third party campaigns. The penultimate
Speaker 5: example would be Elon Musk, you know, auctioning off a
Speaker 5: million dollars.
Speaker 7: To voters who register.
Speaker 5: That's an example of a third party campaign sort of
Speaker 5: in kind donation, whereas Democrats are doing that within the
Speaker 5: campaign structure. So in terms of field offices, I want
Speaker 5: to say they have like twelve just in the state
Speaker 5: of Florida, for example, and then tens of thousands of
Speaker 5: volunteers that have signed on since Kamala Harris joined the race.
Speaker 7: So that's the difference in the field operation.
Speaker 5: But the Democrats' job is harder now because more Republicans
Speaker 5: have voted early and you want to bank those votes,
Speaker 5: not because they're any more or less important, but you
Speaker 5: don't want to have to worry about more people on
Speaker 5: election day in terms of getting people out to vote.
Speaker 6: You bring up Elon Musk. He was in New York
Speaker 6: City yesterday for this six hour long rally Thatald Trump
Speaker 6: put on at Madison Square Garden, and he talked about
Speaker 6: what he might be able to cut if Donald Trump
Speaker 6: were to win. He were named to this new position,
Speaker 6: which I checked the name of here. This is the
Speaker 6: department of government efficiency or doge another crypto illusion there
Speaker 6: from Elon Musk. Curious what you heard from that rally
Speaker 6: so much as you listened to it. And I just
Speaker 6: think back on the conversation that we had with you
Speaker 6: last week or the week before just about this rally.
Speaker 6: It was kind of couched as if a bit of
Speaker 6: a vanity project for Donald Trump coming back to New York,
Speaker 6: which is where he'd lived and had kind of spurned
Speaker 6: him in recent years. Now we're really seeing what could
Speaker 6: be kind of damaging legacy from some of the comments
Speaker 6: that were made there at that event. Should he be
Speaker 6: worried about how they're reverberating, how those clips are kind
Speaker 6: of spreading across this country.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I'm a New Yorker myself. You do
Speaker 5: not come for Puerto Rico. That's not something that I
Speaker 5: would advise. And you're seeing members from the Senators to
Speaker 5: the House members, including even the Trump campaign trying to
Speaker 5: dis some suff distance themselves from the comedian who called
Speaker 5: Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage.
Speaker 7: I mean, that's that's just not workable.
Speaker 5: Six hundred thousand Puerto Ricans in the state of Pennsylvania,
Speaker 5: you know, where were going to go right outside of Philly.
Speaker 7: That's a problem, and you can't.
Speaker 5: Really have that bad bunny then coming out and endorsing
Speaker 5: j Loo coming out and endorsing I mean, this is
Speaker 5: New York Pride in its fullest, and you have the
Speaker 5: fate of the House of Representatives riding on some swing
Speaker 5: seats in the House in New York City and in
Speaker 5: New York State in the surrounding region.
Speaker 7: So that right there is the problem.
Speaker 5: But you mentioned Elon Musk, and I think that his
Speaker 5: understanding of what can be cleaned up is sort of
Speaker 5: a canard. Members always say, you know, we couldn't trim fraud, waste,
Speaker 5: and abuse.
Speaker 7: That's been since I ever got to d C.
Speaker 5: You know, it's roughly three hundred billion dollars, and I
Speaker 5: believe last night Elon Musk said that it was two
Speaker 5: trillion dollars. So you're not even playing the same sport
Speaker 5: at this point. Now, there is not two trillion dollars
Speaker 5: to cut. That's the entire budget of the entire federal
Speaker 5: government for the entire year. So it's just not real
Speaker 5: numbers that he is referencing. And DOGE would be responsible
Speaker 5: if you want to call it that for cutting. It's
Speaker 5: just not it's you're not playing with real numbers, Henrietta.
Speaker 4: What's the call here, what's the feeling, what's the consensus
Speaker 4: about some of the down ballot voting here?
Speaker 5: At this stage, my expectation is that Republicans are going
Speaker 5: to win the United States Senate. I've been at ninety
Speaker 5: percent odds of that for the entire year, and I
Speaker 5: feel very comfortable with that. Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania are all
Speaker 5: very disconcerting races for Democrats right now. You're going to
Speaker 5: go interview Tammy Baldwin. I know she's concerned up there
Speaker 5: as well. They're really fighting for all the turnout in general,
Speaker 5: if you want, like a whole lay of the land,
Speaker 5: state of the race. The battle looks very bad for Democrats.
Speaker 5: Republicans are outperforming. You got the urban voters who were
Speaker 5: coming excuse me, rural voters who are coming out in
Speaker 5: droves in terms that get out the vote campaign. Arizona
Speaker 5: has less read through but also looks very promising for
Speaker 5: Republicans right now. And in Pennsylvany and in North Carolina
Speaker 5: it also looks pretty good for Republicans right now. So
Speaker 5: Democrats have to crush this next week of early voting
Speaker 5: in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and then see how souls to
Speaker 5: the polls did.
Speaker 7: In Georgia yesterday.
Speaker 5: I haven't had a chance to look at that data,
Speaker 5: but you want to see what the voter turnout is
Speaker 5: in suburban areas in all of those states. But Democrats
Speaker 5: are have an incumbency problem of getting all those all
Speaker 5: those voters out now that Republicans can be a little
Speaker 5: bit RESTful about because they've turned out such so many
Speaker 5: members and droves over the last couple weeks of early
Speaker 5: voting and it's disproportionately looking very good for that in
Speaker 5: states like Nevada.
Speaker 4: Henrietta, thanks so much for the latest there. Henrietta Trece,
Speaker 4: managing partner in Veda Partner. She is all over this
Speaker 4: election news and analysis from the presidential election all the
Speaker 4: way down to the local races in the House and
Speaker 4: sent We appreciate getting some of her time.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on
Speaker 2: Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app,
Speaker 2: or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: Eight days to the election.
Speaker 4: I guess here from the perspective of Bloomberg, A lot
Speaker 4: of the discussion is, you know what the economic policies
Speaker 4: of either candidate might mean for this domestic.
Speaker 3: Economy and the global economy.
Speaker 4: We pose that to Hugh Johnson, Chairman, Hugh Johnson Economics.
Speaker 3: Hugh, thanks so much for joining us here.
Speaker 4: What are you telling your clients here eight days out
Speaker 4: to the election about?
Speaker 3: What is an election? It's probably too close to call.
Speaker 4: Here, but how should they be thinking about it?
Speaker 3: What are you telling your clients?
Speaker 8: Well, it's really complex and obviously very difficult to talk
Speaker 8: about because it's very difficult to understand really what it
Speaker 8: comes down to. First of all, people should be or
Speaker 8: should start to start thinking about what's going to happen
Speaker 8: after the election, regardless of who it's elected. Now, I
Speaker 8: know the projection polls are suggesting that maybe Trump has
Speaker 8: a slight edge, So part of what we're talking about
Speaker 8: is what we might see if Trump is elected. But
Speaker 8: quite frankly, it's not going to be much different. It's
Speaker 8: a close call on the election. We all kind of
Speaker 8: know that we can't predict who's going to win, So
Speaker 8: you've got to think about both when it comes to
Speaker 8: economic policy, and it's going to be very important in
Speaker 8: my judgment, when we get into the next administration. It
Speaker 8: really comes down to taxes and trade policy or terroriffs.
Speaker 8: And when it comes to taxes, the number one focus
Speaker 8: of I think both and I think of all of
Speaker 8: us should be on really tax policy. And really what
Speaker 8: we're talking about is trying to get an extension of
Speaker 8: the two thousand and seventeen tax reductions. Reductions in the
Speaker 8: marginal rate, increase in standard deductions, higher exemptions for get
Speaker 8: taxes as well as state taxes, but basically trying to
Speaker 8: get an extension of the twenty seventeen tax reductions which
Speaker 8: sunset or expire at the end of two thousand and
Speaker 8: twenty five. And what we've learned when in twenty eighteen
Speaker 8: and nineteen when we had the initial passage of those
Speaker 8: twenty seventeen reductions is, first of all, you're going to
Speaker 8: obviously see, and this is really predictable, a decline in
Speaker 8: corporate income tax revenues at the federal level, and as
Speaker 8: you might guess, meaningful increases and deficits, meaningful increases in
Speaker 8: the US debt. If you look at the Congressional Budget
Speaker 8: Office they'll tell you over ten years if we get
Speaker 8: if we pass the twenty seventeen tax reductions, you'll get
Speaker 8: about a three through trillion dollars increase in the federal
Speaker 8: yeah deficits, and about four hundred and sixty seven billion
Speaker 8: dollar increase in interest payments by the federal government. We
Speaker 8: got to get that money from somewhere, and that's when
Speaker 8: we have a collision between tax policy, the increase in deficits,
Speaker 8: and then trade policy tariffs. When you start to get
Speaker 8: increases in tariffs, we should talk about that.
Speaker 6: Well, let's talk a bit about it. And you know,
Speaker 6: I've been noticing, as I'm sure you have, how little
Speaker 6: conversation there has been about the size of deficits and
Speaker 6: sort of what this might mean. There aren't many fiscal
Speaker 6: hawks left in Washington these days, it seems like. But
Speaker 6: you bring up this kind of convergence of yes, the
Speaker 6: potential continuation of those Trump tax cuts and these tariffs policies.
Speaker 6: We heard the former president last night here in New
Speaker 6: York in Madison Square Garden making the cases he has
Speaker 6: before species as it might be that you know, you
Speaker 6: could do away with taxes and just have tariffs pay
Speaker 6: for everything. The numbers here tell a different story.
Speaker 8: Yeah, they do. The most important thing is if you
Speaker 8: do get First of all, they're very wedded to reducing taxes,
Speaker 8: are basically extending the twenty seventeen tax policies tax reductions,
Speaker 8: So that's very important. Now the question is, Okay, how
Speaker 8: are you going to pay for The way you pay
Speaker 8: for them is the way we've always paid for them.
Speaker 8: A lot of it comes from households, but a significant
Speaker 8: portion of what we pay for as far as the
Speaker 8: deficits concerned, is from foreign investors. Now, if you do
Speaker 8: have increased taxes or tariffs, you know roughly ten to
Speaker 8: twenty percent universal baseline tax increases. You've heard about sixty
Speaker 8: percent on imports from China, You've heard about specific taxes
Speaker 8: on things like automobiles from Mexico, one hundred percent increases
Speaker 8: in tariffs. That's not going to endear those folks that
Speaker 8: are getting those countries that are getting increased taxes or
Speaker 8: increased tariffs. That's not going to endear them to find
Speaker 8: financing our federal deficits. So it's going to get a
Speaker 8: lot more difficult to finance those deficits as we move
Speaker 8: through the next ten years. Very difficult. What does that mean?
Speaker 8: That probably means you're going to have to offer higher
Speaker 8: interest rates to get that done, and higher interest rates
Speaker 8: is likely to have some weight on the outcome for
Speaker 8: the economy. And I would add, and I hesitate to
Speaker 8: add this, if you look back at the Great Depression
Speaker 8: of nineteen twenty nine to nineteen thirty nine, one of
Speaker 8: the principal reasons that we had that depression was because
Speaker 8: we had such significant terraces, remember the Smooth Holly terrace,
Speaker 8: which led the US economy, the world economy quite frankly
Speaker 8: into a depression. So the point being very simple, if
Speaker 8: you reduce taxes, you get a big deficit, you get
Speaker 8: a big debt has to be financed. A lot of
Speaker 8: it gets financed by foreign investment or capital flows, and
Speaker 8: they're not going to be happy about it if we're
Speaker 8: imposing At the same time, we're imposing significant tariffs on them.
Speaker 8: So this is what I'm just simply saying, is that
Speaker 8: when we move into the next administration, either one, when
Speaker 8: we move into the next administration, the risks are going
Speaker 8: to get a little bit higher, and they have to
Speaker 8: be watched very carefully. Things are good now, but we've
Speaker 8: got to watch them very carefully as we move into
Speaker 8: the next administration. I hope that's clear. This is not
Speaker 8: an easy subject to understand.
Speaker 4: QUE What is your view of the current economic situation
Speaker 4: here in the US. It seems like GDP, you know,
Speaker 4: still pretty solid, inflation coming down, most people who want
Speaker 4: a job have jobs, their wages are growing. What's your
Speaker 4: view of this US economy right now?
Speaker 8: It's about It's about as good as you could possibly get.
Speaker 8: Read the Economist magazine and they'll tell you the same
Speaker 8: thing on the recent issue. It's very good. You're absolutely right.
Speaker 8: GDP is solid, it's slowing, Employment is slowing, the economy
Speaker 8: is slowing, Personal disposable income slowing, personal consumption slowing, but
Speaker 8: very solid. You're likely to get lower numbers after the
Speaker 8: third quarter numbers. Third quarter b around three percent, but
Speaker 8: then we'll be looking at one and a half to
Speaker 8: two percent fourth quarter, first quarter, second quarter of twenty
Speaker 8: twenty five. That's soft landing, and inflation will be coming down.
Speaker 8: The Federal Reserve will be reducing short term interest rates.
Speaker 8: Long term interest rates should be coming down under those conditions,
Speaker 8: and stock prices should be doing better.
Speaker 9: Very good.
Speaker 8: That's the good news. The nots of good news, at
Speaker 8: least in my gentleman judgment. Everybody sees this differently. Is
Speaker 8: we're a little bit high or pricey or overvalue. That's
Speaker 8: one problem. And I'm a little bit worried that I
Speaker 8: see such widespread optimism, which means if we got a
Speaker 8: six to eight percent correction, I would welcome it because
Speaker 8: we'd get to levels that I think attractive, would be
Speaker 8: much more attractive for investors. But basically, when you look ahead,
Speaker 8: everything you say is correct. The outlook prospects, the economy
Speaker 8: is really good, really solid soft landing. I don't dismiss
Speaker 8: the case for a hard landing, but I don't think
Speaker 8: that's a very good case.
Speaker 4: Hugh, thanks so much for joining us, as I always
Speaker 4: appreciate getting your perspective. Hugh Johnson. He's the chairman of
Speaker 4: Hugh Johnson Economics.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 4: Let's get the latest on the developments coming out of
Speaker 4: the Middle East. Here, we're more than a year into
Speaker 4: this war. Jack Devine joins us. He's the founder and
Speaker 4: he's the chairman of the Arcan Group. And Jack is
Speaker 4: also a thirty two year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency,
Speaker 4: so he has some experience in these matters. Jack, what's
Speaker 4: your latest read coming out of the Middle East?
Speaker 3: Here?
Speaker 4: Again, I think the most recent data point would be
Speaker 4: Iran's response to the missile tacks on Iran.
Speaker 3: They could have.
Speaker 4: Gone a lot broader, a lot wider, a lot deeper.
Speaker 4: They chose not to put your read of what's going
Speaker 4: on there in Middle East?
Speaker 10: Well, I think Israel has demonstrated tremendous power and by contrast,
Speaker 10: the adversaries tremendous weakness, much less than many people anticipated, right,
Speaker 10: and it di mended. I would say Israel's in the
Speaker 10: catbird seat. Their adversaries are pushing, I think now pushing
Speaker 10: for a cease fire. They got their back up against
Speaker 10: the wall.
Speaker 6: You know, I'm very curious here sort of how you
Speaker 6: see this playing out going forward. So they're in the
Speaker 6: catbird seat around with their back against the wall. Has
Speaker 6: this sort of tit for tat ended at this point
Speaker 6: in time, where do you see things going here? Of course,
Speaker 6: it's all kicked off with Iran attacking Israel a few
Speaker 6: weeks back.
Speaker 10: Yeah, my read is that Iran his belah Amas all
Speaker 10: know that there's no bouncing back right now, right, you
Speaker 10: can only beat up more. The fact that the Israelis
Speaker 10: went in with one hundred airplanes right, not a single
Speaker 10: one shot down. That tells you Iran is tremendously vulnerable.
Speaker 10: The Israelis could take up tomorrow and bob in the
Speaker 10: oil feels combind to nuclear sites, but they won't be able,
Speaker 10: I think, to do the damage at this point without
Speaker 10: sustained attack.
Speaker 9: But I think they decided not to do that.
Speaker 10: THEIRS was restrained. The Israelis could do more, but it
Speaker 10: was powerful. Now the Iranians are passing it off as
Speaker 10: though it wasn't so bad. Well, it was pretty bad,
Speaker 10: but it didn't hit the two things. I think there
Speaker 10: was a deal made with Washington understandable in this one
Speaker 10: this case. So I think they're trying to find a
Speaker 10: way to catch their breath. And I think that's true
Speaker 10: with his beloved. Remember, all the leadership has been wiped
Speaker 10: out of Hamas and his blog. Both places have taken
Speaker 10: a tremendous beating. They need to regroup. So I think
Speaker 10: you know they're going to negotiations now. Egypt and Hamas
Speaker 10: have issues, have agreements and of discussing them. But I
Speaker 10: think you know Netta is sitting in a strong place.
Speaker 10: He's going to ask for a bigger price. What's that price?
Speaker 10: One will be the northern territory of the Israelis got
Speaker 10: back into it and they cease with these the firing
Speaker 10: and the hostages right out front.
Speaker 9: Number one have to be a race. He's gonna he's
Speaker 9: gonna argue, he's gonna have he's hold all the cars.
Speaker 9: He's gonna have a tough bargain.
Speaker 10: They could have gotten to maybe a little less a
Speaker 10: little while ago, perhaps, but right now, just because they
Speaker 10: say they want to seize fire to to be more
Speaker 10: on his terms.
Speaker 9: You've got to.
Speaker 10: Watch these negotiations. It's not going to be simple. There
Speaker 10: to be some fine print that have long term implications.
Speaker 4: Well, Jack, I mean, I guess my next question would
Speaker 4: be timing. If if Nettanelho and Israel are in such
Speaker 4: a good place, given developments over the last several weeks,
Speaker 4: how do you think this is going to play on
Speaker 4: in terms of timing. Is this something that we could
Speaker 4: see in the next days and weeks or is there
Speaker 4: still more posturing on either side.
Speaker 9: Well, I think the whole world has stopped.
Speaker 10: You know, we go through the motions until election day
Speaker 10: in the United States, right because everyone around the world
Speaker 10: is factoring and how that plays out, including in the
Speaker 10: in the Middle East. I think it's going to be
Speaker 10: more less dramatic, except in this one place. I think
Speaker 10: the difference between the two parties may be different, at
Speaker 10: least in the short term. On Iran, but I think
Speaker 10: nothing's meaningful. This is my view. I mean, there might
Speaker 10: be some some last minute release of hostages or something,
Speaker 10: but I really think nothing is going to happen ntil
Speaker 10: after election day, so timing.
Speaker 9: The second thing is, I think the Israelis have now.
Speaker 10: Demonstrated, you know, their effectiveness and the vulnerability of Iran.
Speaker 10: They too, I think, you know, went to hostages. They
Speaker 10: need to regroup. I think taking out the you're taking
Speaker 10: out the New Year site changes everything.
Speaker 9: So I think that was.
Speaker 10: Taken off the table temporarily. But let me make one
Speaker 10: final point in that if they look like after this
Speaker 10: is over, the Iranian and this fight whatever they're saying,
Speaker 10: trying to ratchet up the nuclear program, and if they
Speaker 10: get within the six month range, then I think we'll
Speaker 10: see much more rigorous response from an effective response from
Speaker 10: Israel with our support.
Speaker 6: Jack, I want to draw on your experience kind of
Speaker 6: observing the relationship between the US and Israel over the years,
Speaker 6: and you mentioned just a few minutes ago the fact
Speaker 6: that perhaps israel retaliatory strike here was more limited in
Speaker 6: part because they were listening to the Council of the
Speaker 6: Administration of the United States. We've heard over the course
Speaker 6: of this conflict kind of mixed messaging about the degree
Speaker 6: to which Israel is listening to the US is following
Speaker 6: the lead. Of course, that encouragion into Lebanon was something
Speaker 6: that the Biden administration didn't want to have happen. What's
Speaker 6: your sense, your assessment of the quality of that relationship today,
Speaker 6: The degree to which Israel is taking the advice of
Speaker 6: the US here is it as it pursues wars on
Speaker 6: many fronts.
Speaker 10: I think the relationship is a really good one. It
Speaker 10: really doesn't change with administration because our reser so vitally
Speaker 10: or twine.
Speaker 9: But you have to look at me with Nan Yahoo.
Speaker 10: I mean, I know he's very controversial, including within the
Speaker 10: Israeli community, but he has run a very effective program.
Speaker 9: So he listens.
Speaker 10: He really he's listening, but then he reclculates it within
Speaker 10: what he thinks is possible and how much he can
Speaker 10: move this right. So I think he's listening, but I
Speaker 10: think he's decided. I think I've got this one right.
Speaker 10: I'm gonna I'm going to factor it in, but i'll
Speaker 10: factor it in unless it's contrary to what I think
Speaker 10: this needs to be played here. This is true internally
Speaker 10: as well. So I think he's listening, but he's decided
Speaker 10: there's one way to handle this problem, and he's pursuing
Speaker 10: a very specific plan if he's not going against nuclear targets,
Speaker 10: because he also feels that this might be the moment,
Speaker 10: not quite the right moment, and it's too it's letting
Speaker 10: open Pandora's box and he's not ready for it. So
Speaker 10: it's a It's a really interesting and complex relationship. But
Speaker 10: people shouldn't get confused about who Ally is.
Speaker 9: And I don't think either.
Speaker 10: Ad Minuet is confused that the importance of Israel in
Speaker 10: the Middle East and stability.
Speaker 9: So you know, I touch through the political jabbering.
Speaker 10: If you will, and I'm convinced the relationship is solid.
Speaker 10: But he's driving it with all due respect to our
Speaker 10: influence around the world. But it will look like he's listening.
Speaker 3: Jack.
Speaker 4: Always great to get your thoughts in your perspective, Jack
Speaker 4: to mine, folks. He's a founder and chairman of the
Speaker 4: ark And Group. He is a thirty two year veteran
Speaker 4: of the Central Intelligence Agency. Will reserved us both Acting
Speaker 4: Director and Associate Director of the CIA's operations outside the
Speaker 4: United States, as well as chief of the Latin American
Speaker 4: the Division, the head of the CIA's count and Narconic Center,
Speaker 4: head of CIA's Afghan Task Force.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
Speaker 2: us live every week day on YouTube and always on
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 4: All right, folks, you daily look at the front pages
Speaker 4: around the world at LISTEO. Wealthy Americans are paying millions
Speaker 4: to live in luxury retirement communities.
Speaker 1: Have you thought about what are you going to stay
Speaker 1: in the Jersey Compound Forever.
Speaker 4: Yes, yes, that's the plane.
Speaker 11: Exactly in the Jersey Shore.
Speaker 1: Well, a lot of wealthy Americans, they are they're paying
Speaker 1: a lot of money to go to these retirement communities
Speaker 1: that are now luxury retirement communities. They're called life planned community.
Speaker 5: Boy.
Speaker 1: The reason they're called that is because you start an
Speaker 1: apartment and then you can move to nursing like care moved,
Speaker 1: yes to that, to that section, so you have one
Speaker 1: place to go because they're finding that a lot of
Speaker 1: people find it difficult to find homes for their parents
Speaker 1: once they reach that level where they have to go
Speaker 1: to nursing home status. So they're saying, if you start now,
Speaker 1: then they already have that in to get there.
Speaker 4: And there's one in your neighborhood, right is that kind
Speaker 4: of what we're talking about In Jersey.
Speaker 3: There's one where and I live.
Speaker 4: There's one that they put up like three or four towers.
Speaker 11: Right, Yeah, it's a whole community. But this is like
Speaker 11: way over.
Speaker 1: I mean you want to hear the prices for these Okay,
Speaker 1: So they have pools, beautiful grounds, fancy meals.
Speaker 11: An upfront payment can range from.
Speaker 1: Just over a million dollars for one bedroom yes, to
Speaker 1: more than seven.
Speaker 11: Million for a three bedroom.
Speaker 3: Wow.
Speaker 1: What and then you have the monthly fees you know,
Speaker 1: for the amenities, thirteen eight hundred dollars for housekeeping.
Speaker 11: This is ballet. Yeah, so this is like another level.
Speaker 1: This is Silicon Valley. This is the v at Palo Alto. Okay,
Speaker 1: So that's what they're talking about. But I mean there
Speaker 1: are other places, yes, that do have these, they're not
Speaker 1: as expensive. But like I said, the baby boomers saw
Speaker 1: what their parents went through, and they don't want their
Speaker 1: kids to go through the same trouble. So that's why
Speaker 1: this is becoming popular.
Speaker 6: Not to harp on North Carolina too much, but I
Speaker 6: mean there're a ton of these around in you and see, Yeah,
Speaker 6: a lot of people moving to the area just for them.
Speaker 6: And then you have you know, they draw from the universities,
Speaker 6: have all of this cultural I mean, we.
Speaker 4: Did consider thinking about, you know, the kind of retirement years,
Speaker 4: thinking like the Greater Dupe community. But this is too
Speaker 4: far from the ocea, you know, it's too far from
Speaker 4: the ocean.
Speaker 3: So we sit ury sure, sure, right, very good.
Speaker 1: Did you know there was a big celebration over the
Speaker 1: weekend for the New York City Subway one hundred and
Speaker 1: twenty years old. Well, yes, it happened yesterday A big part.
Speaker 1: The first subway train left from City Hall to one
Speaker 1: hundred and forty fifth Street in Harlem October twenty seventh,
Speaker 1: nineteen oh four. It made it uptown in twenty six minutes.
Speaker 11: There you go. At the time.
Speaker 6: Today, I was gonna ask.
Speaker 11: How was that compared to today?
Speaker 4: I ride the City Subway every single day, which I've
Speaker 4: done since I don't know, nineteen eighty six.
Speaker 3: It's the only it's.
Speaker 4: By far the most efficient way to get around that now. True,
Speaker 4: but I don't know why people do anything different. I mean,
Speaker 4: and I'll make the claim here today, from today versus
Speaker 4: my first day in nineteen eighty six, the subway experience
Speaker 4: no change. With one big, one big exception air condition
Speaker 4: car yeah back only about half a card condition.
Speaker 3: Now they're all air conditions, the same, grubby people, the same.
Speaker 4: Everything you want to say that you don't like about
Speaker 4: the subway today is the same as it was nineteen
Speaker 4: eighty six. Sta So people say it's gotten so much more,
Speaker 4: something like, no, it hasn't. You haven't ridden the subway.
Speaker 6: Well, there were grand plans to kind of modernize a
Speaker 6: lot of these stations and make things better with the
Speaker 6: money from congestion pricing, which is on holding course, thanks
Speaker 6: the governor. So we'll see if that changes. But you know,
Speaker 6: there's there's room for improvement.
Speaker 4: I would say always, always, But I mean it gets
Speaker 4: how many gajillion people around this island.
Speaker 6: Every day back to the norm that we had in
Speaker 6: pre pandemic?
Speaker 3: I think, but I think, what do we know we're not?
Speaker 3: Are we back up here that we're very close to it?
Speaker 6: If there was that kind of trough for a while
Speaker 6: and things were, things were strange, stranger on the subway.
Speaker 4: But I don't know how you get around the city.
Speaker 3: I mean, you're riding your bike? Are you doing it?
Speaker 6: Get that best bike? You haven't done that yet?
Speaker 3: No? Exactly right? All right? What else you got?
Speaker 11: Okay, So New York this is in the New York Post.
Speaker 1: Okay, so New York will poorly banned the sale of
Speaker 1: caffeine infused cannabis. Now caffeine infused cannabis, it's just counter caffeine,
Speaker 1: So state regular is apparently banned it. There are cannabis
Speaker 1: pills also infused with caffeine. Apparently it's popular with fitness enthusiasts.
Speaker 4: You're the only fitness is and I'm not these I
Speaker 4: don't get it. What do you do for your like
Speaker 4: your energy? You're just water.
Speaker 11: It's just me.
Speaker 6: It's just ridesillan wave.
Speaker 11: Yes, but apparently this is the thing.
Speaker 1: It's called Go and Genius. They're marketed as energy stimulants.
Speaker 1: But the company is appealing this ruling, so we'll see
Speaker 1: what happens. But it's been sold in New York since
Speaker 1: February of last year.
Speaker 11: But it's a base.
Speaker 3: So is it different than Red Bull and stuff like that.
Speaker 11: I guess so because it's it has ta yes. So okay,
Speaker 11: the watage.
Speaker 6: Do you have a lot of dispensarieson I mean there
Speaker 6: we do. Yeah, I guess there's like two hundred something
Speaker 6: in New York State. But I've noticed in Brooklyn there
Speaker 6: were a lot of these shops that have been closed
Speaker 6: down by the sheriff. We have a sheriff apparently.
Speaker 4: Well yeah, I mean he used to be in midtown Manhattan,
Speaker 4: just within like a three square block of Penn Station.
Speaker 3: They're ga jillion of doscincs. Now they're all shot within
Speaker 3: like a day. They all just the city said no
Speaker 3: more so. But yeah in Jersey. Yeah, we got to Neptune.
Speaker 4: That's our place to go. And I'll say, you go
Speaker 4: to this dispensary New Jersey. It is every walk of life,
Speaker 4: from the wealthiest retiree to the kid off the streets,
Speaker 4: every color shaped form. It is the great equalizer. Go
Speaker 4: into the dispensary and it's a they do a you know,
Speaker 4: great business.
Speaker 6: That's America.
Speaker 9: That's America.
Speaker 3: Very good on the selection year. All right, we got
Speaker 3: the World Series.
Speaker 11: Yes, World Series. Okay.
Speaker 1: So the New York Times has this interesting look when
Speaker 1: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman loved the Dodgers.
Speaker 11: I didn't realize.
Speaker 3: I didn't know that.
Speaker 11: Yeah, so he told The New York Times.
Speaker 1: He grew up in Lexicon, Kentucky.
Speaker 11: His parents were from New York.
Speaker 1: Most of the family supported the Yankees, but he says
Speaker 1: he was a standout, the outcast. He was the Dodgers fan.
Speaker 1: And he says he doesn't really know why he was.
Speaker 1: Maybe it was because they were a great team in
Speaker 1: the seventies when he was growing up, but he just
Speaker 1: says he was a bat boy at the Dodgers for
Speaker 1: their spring training, so he was really involved with him
Speaker 1: but you know, then he started working for the Yankees
Speaker 1: and things change.
Speaker 4: So Rich Truman's favorite general manager is that right really
Speaker 4: loves loves, loves cash and interesting coach Franklin Penn state
Speaker 4: Rich Truman's favorite calm.
Speaker 6: There we go. I'm learning so much here.
Speaker 11: Exactly, but I didn't know this.
Speaker 1: So he started at a college internet with the Yankees
Speaker 1: in eighty six. He worked his way up assistant general manager,
Speaker 1: then general manager for the past twenty seven years.
Speaker 6: So intrigue this article is great. But the intrigue that
Speaker 6: I loved is that Frank Mcourt tried to hire him
Speaker 6: to the Dodgers from the Yankees.
Speaker 3: Yes, yes, for less.
Speaker 6: Money, for less money, and he made more money, but
Speaker 6: it was more money, but he stayed. He stayed at
Speaker 6: the Yankees for less money. So I think at that
Speaker 6: point he felt like he had some Steinbrenner loyalty.
Speaker 3: I mean, Yank.
Speaker 4: Yeah, the Yankees are down to nothing, coming back to
Speaker 4: the Bronx tonight for three games, I believe, and the
Speaker 4: Judge show up. Yeah, next three in New York, thanks Harry,
Speaker 4: and then we'll see what happens if they can kind
Speaker 4: of write this ship here. But after the football we can.
Speaker 4: We had with the Jets. The New York sports market
Speaker 4: needs some positive.
Speaker 6: News coming out, and Tani is playing right? Can I
Speaker 6: get an update on that?
Speaker 3: Yes?
Speaker 6: Yes, the shoulder is fine, Yeah, workable, okay, good, exactly right?
Speaker 4: So all right, Lisa Miteo with the newspapers, Thank you
Speaker 4: so much.
Speaker 3: We appreciate that always.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
Speaker 2: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
Speaker 2: always on the Bloomberg terminal