1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays 3 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on applecar Player, Android Auto with 4 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get 5 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 2: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 3: Henrietta trez joins us. She's a managing partner, Vida partner. 7 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 4: She's the one that really gives us a sense of 8 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:33,520 Speaker 4: kind of what's happening on this election and on the 9 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:36,599 Speaker 4: political side, how it might affect markets here, Henriette, As 10 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 4: David was just mentioning, he's gonna be out there in 11 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 4: the field trying to get a sense of how this 12 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 4: is going to play out over the next week or so. 13 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 4: What is your sense between now and election day, Henriette, 14 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 4: Is there anything that might move the needle. 15 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:49,840 Speaker 3: One way or the other? Or are we pretty much 16 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:50,840 Speaker 3: where we are? 17 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 5: You know, we're seeing a lot of really robust turnout 18 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 5: from Republicans in rural areas right now. That's the main 19 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 5: theme of the last week of early voting. So in 20 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 5: states like Nevada, I'm confident saying, you know, this is 21 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 5: a very bad position for Democrats to be in the 22 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 5: state of Nevada, which is a critical swing state, but 23 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 5: it's not necessarily translating elsewhere yet. That's because different states 24 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:17,760 Speaker 5: have different voting patterns and in person early regulations, like 25 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 5: the state of Pennsylvania for example. So there's a lot 26 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 5: of shift. But this week is really an integral one 27 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 5: to watch. You want to watch the suburban vote and 28 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 5: the youth vote. Those demographics disproportionately start voting this week before, 29 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:35,759 Speaker 5: and it had been principally an older, white, rural voter, 30 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 5: and a lot of that is Republicans cannibalizing their election 31 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 5: day vote from twenty twenty. So this week should give 32 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 5: us some new information to see whether it's going to 33 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 5: be a scenario where Democrats continue to stay home as 34 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 5: they did during the first week of early voting, or 35 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 5: if they're going to start coming out, which would be 36 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 5: disproportionately again your urban, suburban and younger voters, which is 37 00:01:56,600 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 5: a demographic that this cycle is skewing Democratic, particularly on 38 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 5: the suburban side, which I think is where we should 39 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 5: really be focused. 40 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 6: Henry and I helped me understand the metamorphosis of the 41 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 6: Republicans as it comes to the early vote, because it 42 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:10,800 Speaker 6: was something that during the last presidential election. The one 43 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 6: before that, Donald Trump was not an enthusiast for he 44 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 6: was not encouraging his supporters to vote early. What has 45 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 6: changed and sort of how does it or how could 46 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 6: it affect what we see after election day in terms 47 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 6: of the way in which Republicans in particular look at 48 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 6: these votes as they're talent. 49 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 5: Yeah, and it really does need to change, otherwise Democrats 50 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:32,080 Speaker 5: are going to get wiped out across the swing states. 51 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 5: So right now what we're seeing is a material shift 52 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 5: from twenty twenty in terms of early voting. 53 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:38,800 Speaker 7: And this is a result. The metamorphosis comes. 54 00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 5: From millions of dollars in Republican Party operation explanations or 55 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:48,239 Speaker 5: sort of explainers to voters that you should vote early 56 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 5: in person. So Republicans are disproportionately voting early in person, 57 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 5: whereas Democrats have an advantage in the mail in ballot. 58 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 5: So to get really granular for you, the voters out 59 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 5: in Nevada who are able to vote early in person 60 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 5: are doing so in rural areas. 61 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 7: But then you have Clark County. 62 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 5: Where there's the disproportionate share of Democrats and ninety percent 63 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 5: of the electorate, and they mostly vote via mail in 64 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:12,519 Speaker 5: ballot that now all in the Vatans get So there's 65 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 5: a lot of granular changes that have happened since twenty twenty. 66 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 5: But the rule of thumb is that Republicans now are 67 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 5: voting in person early, where Democrats are favoring mail in 68 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 5: balloting early, and as I mentioned this week, is when 69 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:26,920 Speaker 5: a lot of the youth vote will go and vote 70 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 5: in person early. But there is an indication that will 71 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 5: have less of a blue wall going into election day, 72 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 5: but also less of a red wave on election day 73 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 5: again because they're voting early at about double the rate 74 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 5: Democrats are. So it is going through quite a bit 75 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 5: of a shift and creating a lot of problems for 76 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 5: people like me who are obviously trying to track against 77 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 5: a very difficult copier in twenty twenty, which was a pandemic. 78 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 4: Anyway, is any party any particular more advantage or less 79 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 4: advantage in getting out the vote. 80 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 5: When it comes to ground game, I think it's clear 81 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 5: that the Democrats have a better ground game. Something like 82 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 5: three hundred and twenty six field offices nationwide where the 83 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 5: Trump campaign famously does not disclose its numbers. I think 84 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 5: the Trump camp has farmed out a lot of it's 85 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 5: get out the vote to third party campaigns. The penultimate 86 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:17,279 Speaker 5: example would be Elon Musk, you know, auctioning off a 87 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:18,279 Speaker 5: million dollars. 88 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 7: To voters who register. 89 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,159 Speaker 5: That's an example of a third party campaign sort of 90 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:27,359 Speaker 5: in kind donation, whereas Democrats are doing that within the 91 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:30,600 Speaker 5: campaign structure. So in terms of field offices, I want 92 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:32,279 Speaker 5: to say they have like twelve just in the state 93 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:35,720 Speaker 5: of Florida, for example, and then tens of thousands of 94 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 5: volunteers that have signed on since Kamala Harris joined the race. 95 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 7: So that's the difference in the field operation. 96 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 5: But the Democrats' job is harder now because more Republicans 97 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 5: have voted early and you want to bank those votes, 98 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 5: not because they're any more or less important, but you 99 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 5: don't want to have to worry about more people on 100 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 5: election day in terms of getting people out to vote. 101 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 6: You bring up Elon Musk. He was in New York 102 00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 6: City yesterday for this six hour long rally Thatald Trump 103 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 6: put on at Madison Square Garden, and he talked about 104 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 6: what he might be able to cut if Donald Trump 105 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 6: were to win. He were named to this new position, 106 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:09,840 Speaker 6: which I checked the name of here. This is the 107 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:14,279 Speaker 6: department of government efficiency or doge another crypto illusion there 108 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 6: from Elon Musk. Curious what you heard from that rally 109 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 6: so much as you listened to it. And I just 110 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 6: think back on the conversation that we had with you 111 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 6: last week or the week before just about this rally. 112 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:26,600 Speaker 6: It was kind of couched as if a bit of 113 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 6: a vanity project for Donald Trump coming back to New York, 114 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 6: which is where he'd lived and had kind of spurned 115 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 6: him in recent years. Now we're really seeing what could 116 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:37,280 Speaker 6: be kind of damaging legacy from some of the comments 117 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 6: that were made there at that event. Should he be 118 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 6: worried about how they're reverberating, how those clips are kind 119 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 6: of spreading across this country. 120 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:49,839 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I'm a New Yorker myself. You do 121 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 5: not come for Puerto Rico. That's not something that I 122 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 5: would advise. And you're seeing members from the Senators to 123 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:59,159 Speaker 5: the House members, including even the Trump campaign trying to 124 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 5: dis some suff distance themselves from the comedian who called 125 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 5: Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage. 126 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 7: I mean, that's that's just not workable. 127 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 5: Six hundred thousand Puerto Ricans in the state of Pennsylvania, 128 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 5: you know, where were going to go right outside of Philly. 129 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 7: That's a problem, and you can't. 130 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 5: Really have that bad bunny then coming out and endorsing 131 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 5: j Loo coming out and endorsing I mean, this is 132 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 5: New York Pride in its fullest, and you have the 133 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 5: fate of the House of Representatives riding on some swing 134 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:26,599 Speaker 5: seats in the House in New York City and in 135 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 5: New York State in the surrounding region. 136 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 7: So that right there is the problem. 137 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 5: But you mentioned Elon Musk, and I think that his 138 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 5: understanding of what can be cleaned up is sort of 139 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:42,159 Speaker 5: a canard. Members always say, you know, we couldn't trim fraud, waste, 140 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:42,719 Speaker 5: and abuse. 141 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 7: That's been since I ever got to d C. 142 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 5: You know, it's roughly three hundred billion dollars, and I 143 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:51,480 Speaker 5: believe last night Elon Musk said that it was two 144 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 5: trillion dollars. So you're not even playing the same sport 145 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:57,679 Speaker 5: at this point. Now, there is not two trillion dollars 146 00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 5: to cut. That's the entire budget of the entire federal 147 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 5: government for the entire year. So it's just not real 148 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 5: numbers that he is referencing. And DOGE would be responsible 149 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 5: if you want to call it that for cutting. It's 150 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 5: just not it's you're not playing with real numbers, Henrietta. 151 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 4: What's the call here, what's the feeling, what's the consensus 152 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 4: about some of the down ballot voting here? 153 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 5: At this stage, my expectation is that Republicans are going 154 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 5: to win the United States Senate. I've been at ninety 155 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 5: percent odds of that for the entire year, and I 156 00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 5: feel very comfortable with that. Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania are all 157 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 5: very disconcerting races for Democrats right now. You're going to 158 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 5: go interview Tammy Baldwin. I know she's concerned up there 159 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 5: as well. They're really fighting for all the turnout in general, 160 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:45,320 Speaker 5: if you want, like a whole lay of the land, 161 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 5: state of the race. The battle looks very bad for Democrats. 162 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 5: Republicans are outperforming. You got the urban voters who were 163 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 5: coming excuse me, rural voters who are coming out in 164 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 5: droves in terms that get out the vote campaign. Arizona 165 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:00,800 Speaker 5: has less read through but also looks very promising for 166 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 5: Republicans right now. And in Pennsylvany and in North Carolina 167 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 5: it also looks pretty good for Republicans right now. So 168 00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 5: Democrats have to crush this next week of early voting 169 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 5: in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and then see how souls to 170 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 5: the polls did. 171 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 7: In Georgia yesterday. 172 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 5: I haven't had a chance to look at that data, 173 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 5: but you want to see what the voter turnout is 174 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 5: in suburban areas in all of those states. But Democrats 175 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 5: are have an incumbency problem of getting all those all 176 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 5: those voters out now that Republicans can be a little 177 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 5: bit RESTful about because they've turned out such so many 178 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 5: members and droves over the last couple weeks of early 179 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:41,559 Speaker 5: voting and it's disproportionately looking very good for that in 180 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 5: states like Nevada. 181 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 4: Henrietta, thanks so much for the latest there. Henrietta Trece, 182 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 4: managing partner in Veda Partner. She is all over this 183 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:52,959 Speaker 4: election news and analysis from the presidential election all the 184 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 4: way down to the local races in the House and 185 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:56,960 Speaker 4: sent We appreciate getting some of her time. 186 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 187 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on 188 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 2: Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, 189 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 2: or watch us live on YouTube. 190 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 3: Eight days to the election. 191 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 4: I guess here from the perspective of Bloomberg, A lot 192 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 4: of the discussion is, you know what the economic policies 193 00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 4: of either candidate might mean for this domestic. 194 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 3: Economy and the global economy. 195 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:30,959 Speaker 4: We pose that to Hugh Johnson, Chairman, Hugh Johnson Economics. 196 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 3: Hugh, thanks so much for joining us here. 197 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 4: What are you telling your clients here eight days out 198 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 4: to the election about? 199 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 3: What is an election? It's probably too close to call. 200 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 4: Here, but how should they be thinking about it? 201 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 3: What are you telling your clients? 202 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 8: Well, it's really complex and obviously very difficult to talk 203 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 8: about because it's very difficult to understand really what it 204 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 8: comes down to. First of all, people should be or 205 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 8: should start to start thinking about what's going to happen 206 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 8: after the election, regardless of who it's elected. Now, I 207 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 8: know the projection polls are suggesting that maybe Trump has 208 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 8: a slight edge, So part of what we're talking about 209 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 8: is what we might see if Trump is elected. But 210 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 8: quite frankly, it's not going to be much different. It's 211 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:16,440 Speaker 8: a close call on the election. We all kind of 212 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 8: know that we can't predict who's going to win, So 213 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:21,680 Speaker 8: you've got to think about both when it comes to 214 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 8: economic policy, and it's going to be very important in 215 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:29,560 Speaker 8: my judgment, when we get into the next administration. It 216 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 8: really comes down to taxes and trade policy or terroriffs. 217 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:37,560 Speaker 8: And when it comes to taxes, the number one focus 218 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 8: of I think both and I think of all of 219 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 8: us should be on really tax policy. And really what 220 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 8: we're talking about is trying to get an extension of 221 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:53,679 Speaker 8: the two thousand and seventeen tax reductions. Reductions in the 222 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 8: marginal rate, increase in standard deductions, higher exemptions for get 223 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 8: taxes as well as state taxes, but basically trying to 224 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 8: get an extension of the twenty seventeen tax reductions which 225 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 8: sunset or expire at the end of two thousand and 226 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 8: twenty five. And what we've learned when in twenty eighteen 227 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 8: and nineteen when we had the initial passage of those 228 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:26,079 Speaker 8: twenty seventeen reductions is, first of all, you're going to 229 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:30,319 Speaker 8: obviously see, and this is really predictable, a decline in 230 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 8: corporate income tax revenues at the federal level, and as 231 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 8: you might guess, meaningful increases and deficits, meaningful increases in 232 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 8: the US debt. If you look at the Congressional Budget 233 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:49,199 Speaker 8: Office they'll tell you over ten years if we get 234 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 8: if we pass the twenty seventeen tax reductions, you'll get 235 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:59,559 Speaker 8: about a three through trillion dollars increase in the federal 236 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 8: yeah deficits, and about four hundred and sixty seven billion 237 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:10,200 Speaker 8: dollar increase in interest payments by the federal government. We 238 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:13,840 Speaker 8: got to get that money from somewhere, and that's when 239 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:19,599 Speaker 8: we have a collision between tax policy, the increase in deficits, 240 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:23,400 Speaker 8: and then trade policy tariffs. When you start to get 241 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 8: increases in tariffs, we should talk about that. 242 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 6: Well, let's talk a bit about it. And you know, 243 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:31,080 Speaker 6: I've been noticing, as I'm sure you have, how little 244 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 6: conversation there has been about the size of deficits and 245 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 6: sort of what this might mean. There aren't many fiscal 246 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 6: hawks left in Washington these days, it seems like. But 247 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:41,599 Speaker 6: you bring up this kind of convergence of yes, the 248 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:45,839 Speaker 6: potential continuation of those Trump tax cuts and these tariffs policies. 249 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:48,560 Speaker 6: We heard the former president last night here in New 250 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:50,839 Speaker 6: York in Madison Square Garden making the cases he has 251 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 6: before species as it might be that you know, you 252 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 6: could do away with taxes and just have tariffs pay 253 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 6: for everything. The numbers here tell a different story. 254 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 8: Yeah, they do. The most important thing is if you 255 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 8: do get First of all, they're very wedded to reducing taxes, 256 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 8: are basically extending the twenty seventeen tax policies tax reductions, 257 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,320 Speaker 8: So that's very important. Now the question is, Okay, how 258 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 8: are you going to pay for The way you pay 259 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 8: for them is the way we've always paid for them. 260 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,199 Speaker 8: A lot of it comes from households, but a significant 261 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 8: portion of what we pay for as far as the 262 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:29,240 Speaker 8: deficits concerned, is from foreign investors. Now, if you do 263 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 8: have increased taxes or tariffs, you know roughly ten to 264 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:39,959 Speaker 8: twenty percent universal baseline tax increases. You've heard about sixty 265 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 8: percent on imports from China, You've heard about specific taxes 266 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 8: on things like automobiles from Mexico, one hundred percent increases 267 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:52,960 Speaker 8: in tariffs. That's not going to endear those folks that 268 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 8: are getting those countries that are getting increased taxes or 269 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 8: increased tariffs. That's not going to endear them to find 270 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 8: financing our federal deficits. So it's going to get a 271 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 8: lot more difficult to finance those deficits as we move 272 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 8: through the next ten years. Very difficult. What does that mean? 273 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 8: That probably means you're going to have to offer higher 274 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 8: interest rates to get that done, and higher interest rates 275 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 8: is likely to have some weight on the outcome for 276 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:26,160 Speaker 8: the economy. And I would add, and I hesitate to 277 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 8: add this, if you look back at the Great Depression 278 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 8: of nineteen twenty nine to nineteen thirty nine, one of 279 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 8: the principal reasons that we had that depression was because 280 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 8: we had such significant terraces, remember the Smooth Holly terrace, 281 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 8: which led the US economy, the world economy quite frankly 282 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 8: into a depression. So the point being very simple, if 283 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 8: you reduce taxes, you get a big deficit, you get 284 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 8: a big debt has to be financed. A lot of 285 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 8: it gets financed by foreign investment or capital flows, and 286 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 8: they're not going to be happy about it if we're 287 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 8: imposing At the same time, we're imposing significant tariffs on them. 288 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 8: So this is what I'm just simply saying, is that 289 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 8: when we move into the next administration, either one, when 290 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 8: we move into the next administration, the risks are going 291 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 8: to get a little bit higher, and they have to 292 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 8: be watched very carefully. Things are good now, but we've 293 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 8: got to watch them very carefully as we move into 294 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:28,360 Speaker 8: the next administration. I hope that's clear. This is not 295 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 8: an easy subject to understand. 296 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 4: QUE What is your view of the current economic situation 297 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 4: here in the US. It seems like GDP, you know, 298 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 4: still pretty solid, inflation coming down, most people who want 299 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 4: a job have jobs, their wages are growing. What's your 300 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 4: view of this US economy right now? 301 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 8: It's about It's about as good as you could possibly get. 302 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 8: Read the Economist magazine and they'll tell you the same 303 00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 8: thing on the recent issue. It's very good. You're absolutely right. 304 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 8: GDP is solid, it's slowing, Employment is slowing, the economy 305 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 8: is slowing, Personal disposable income slowing, personal consumption slowing, but 306 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 8: very solid. You're likely to get lower numbers after the 307 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 8: third quarter numbers. Third quarter b around three percent, but 308 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 8: then we'll be looking at one and a half to 309 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 8: two percent fourth quarter, first quarter, second quarter of twenty 310 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 8: twenty five. That's soft landing, and inflation will be coming down. 311 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 8: The Federal Reserve will be reducing short term interest rates. 312 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 8: Long term interest rates should be coming down under those conditions, 313 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 8: and stock prices should be doing better. 314 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 9: Very good. 315 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,400 Speaker 8: That's the good news. The nots of good news, at 316 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 8: least in my gentleman judgment. Everybody sees this differently. Is 317 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 8: we're a little bit high or pricey or overvalue. That's 318 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 8: one problem. And I'm a little bit worried that I 319 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 8: see such widespread optimism, which means if we got a 320 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 8: six to eight percent correction, I would welcome it because 321 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 8: we'd get to levels that I think attractive, would be 322 00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 8: much more attractive for investors. But basically, when you look ahead, 323 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 8: everything you say is correct. The outlook prospects, the economy 324 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:13,160 Speaker 8: is really good, really solid soft landing. I don't dismiss 325 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:14,920 Speaker 8: the case for a hard landing, but I don't think 326 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 8: that's a very good case. 327 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 4: Hugh, thanks so much for joining us, as I always 328 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,440 Speaker 4: appreciate getting your perspective. Hugh Johnson. He's the chairman of 329 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:23,200 Speaker 4: Hugh Johnson Economics. 330 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 331 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 332 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:33,679 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 333 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,880 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 334 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 335 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:43,520 Speaker 4: Let's get the latest on the developments coming out of 336 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:45,600 Speaker 4: the Middle East. Here, we're more than a year into 337 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 4: this war. Jack Devine joins us. He's the founder and 338 00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:51,399 Speaker 4: he's the chairman of the Arcan Group. And Jack is 339 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 4: also a thirty two year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency, 340 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:59,399 Speaker 4: so he has some experience in these matters. Jack, what's 341 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 4: your latest read coming out of the Middle East? 342 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:02,360 Speaker 3: Here? 343 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 4: Again, I think the most recent data point would be 344 00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:07,399 Speaker 4: Iran's response to the missile tacks on Iran. 345 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:07,960 Speaker 3: They could have. 346 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 4: Gone a lot broader, a lot wider, a lot deeper. 347 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 4: They chose not to put your read of what's going 348 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:13,439 Speaker 4: on there in Middle East? 349 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 10: Well, I think Israel has demonstrated tremendous power and by contrast, 350 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 10: the adversaries tremendous weakness, much less than many people anticipated, right, 351 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:26,480 Speaker 10: and it di mended. I would say Israel's in the 352 00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:30,679 Speaker 10: catbird seat. Their adversaries are pushing, I think now pushing 353 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:32,959 Speaker 10: for a cease fire. They got their back up against 354 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:34,920 Speaker 10: the wall. 355 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 6: You know, I'm very curious here sort of how you 356 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 6: see this playing out going forward. So they're in the 357 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:43,120 Speaker 6: catbird seat around with their back against the wall. Has 358 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:44,920 Speaker 6: this sort of tit for tat ended at this point 359 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 6: in time, where do you see things going here? Of course, 360 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 6: it's all kicked off with Iran attacking Israel a few 361 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 6: weeks back. 362 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 10: Yeah, my read is that Iran his belah Amas all 363 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 10: know that there's no bouncing back right now, right, you 364 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,639 Speaker 10: can only beat up more. The fact that the Israelis 365 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 10: went in with one hundred airplanes right, not a single 366 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:10,400 Speaker 10: one shot down. That tells you Iran is tremendously vulnerable. 367 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 10: The Israelis could take up tomorrow and bob in the 368 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 10: oil feels combind to nuclear sites, but they won't be able, 369 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:20,479 Speaker 10: I think, to do the damage at this point without 370 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:21,359 Speaker 10: sustained attack. 371 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 9: But I think they decided not to do that. 372 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 10: THEIRS was restrained. The Israelis could do more, but it 373 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:30,119 Speaker 10: was powerful. Now the Iranians are passing it off as 374 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:32,360 Speaker 10: though it wasn't so bad. Well, it was pretty bad, 375 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 10: but it didn't hit the two things. I think there 376 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 10: was a deal made with Washington understandable in this one 377 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 10: this case. So I think they're trying to find a 378 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:41,920 Speaker 10: way to catch their breath. And I think that's true 379 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:45,720 Speaker 10: with his beloved. Remember, all the leadership has been wiped 380 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:50,119 Speaker 10: out of Hamas and his blog. Both places have taken 381 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 10: a tremendous beating. They need to regroup. So I think 382 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 10: you know they're going to negotiations now. Egypt and Hamas 383 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:01,679 Speaker 10: have issues, have agreements and of discussing them. But I 384 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,200 Speaker 10: think you know Netta is sitting in a strong place. 385 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 10: He's going to ask for a bigger price. What's that price? 386 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:09,680 Speaker 10: One will be the northern territory of the Israelis got 387 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 10: back into it and they cease with these the firing 388 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 10: and the hostages right out front. 389 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 9: Number one have to be a race. He's gonna he's 390 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 9: gonna argue, he's gonna have he's hold all the cars. 391 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 9: He's gonna have a tough bargain. 392 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 10: They could have gotten to maybe a little less a 393 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 10: little while ago, perhaps, but right now, just because they 394 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 10: say they want to seize fire to to be more 395 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 10: on his terms. 396 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:30,159 Speaker 9: You've got to. 397 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 10: Watch these negotiations. It's not going to be simple. There 398 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 10: to be some fine print that have long term implications. 399 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,120 Speaker 4: Well, Jack, I mean, I guess my next question would 400 00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 4: be timing. If if Nettanelho and Israel are in such 401 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,959 Speaker 4: a good place, given developments over the last several weeks, 402 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 4: how do you think this is going to play on 403 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:50,360 Speaker 4: in terms of timing. Is this something that we could 404 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 4: see in the next days and weeks or is there 405 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 4: still more posturing on either side. 406 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 9: Well, I think the whole world has stopped. 407 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,360 Speaker 10: You know, we go through the motions until election day 408 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 10: in the United States, right because everyone around the world 409 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:07,679 Speaker 10: is factoring and how that plays out, including in the 410 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 10: in the Middle East. I think it's going to be 411 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 10: more less dramatic, except in this one place. I think 412 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:16,639 Speaker 10: the difference between the two parties may be different, at 413 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 10: least in the short term. On Iran, but I think 414 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 10: nothing's meaningful. This is my view. I mean, there might 415 00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:26,480 Speaker 10: be some some last minute release of hostages or something, 416 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 10: but I really think nothing is going to happen ntil 417 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:30,640 Speaker 10: after election day, so timing. 418 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 9: The second thing is, I think the Israelis have now. 419 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 10: Demonstrated, you know, their effectiveness and the vulnerability of Iran. 420 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,480 Speaker 10: They too, I think, you know, went to hostages. They 421 00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 10: need to regroup. I think taking out the you're taking 422 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 10: out the New Year site changes everything. 423 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:52,120 Speaker 9: So I think that was. 424 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,640 Speaker 10: Taken off the table temporarily. But let me make one 425 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 10: final point in that if they look like after this 426 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 10: is over, the Iranian and this fight whatever they're saying, 427 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 10: trying to ratchet up the nuclear program, and if they 428 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,360 Speaker 10: get within the six month range, then I think we'll 429 00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:12,640 Speaker 10: see much more rigorous response from an effective response from 430 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 10: Israel with our support. 431 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 6: Jack, I want to draw on your experience kind of 432 00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 6: observing the relationship between the US and Israel over the years, 433 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,120 Speaker 6: and you mentioned just a few minutes ago the fact 434 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 6: that perhaps israel retaliatory strike here was more limited in 435 00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:28,199 Speaker 6: part because they were listening to the Council of the 436 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,200 Speaker 6: Administration of the United States. We've heard over the course 437 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,920 Speaker 6: of this conflict kind of mixed messaging about the degree 438 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 6: to which Israel is listening to the US is following 439 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,200 Speaker 6: the lead. Of course, that encouragion into Lebanon was something 440 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:41,640 Speaker 6: that the Biden administration didn't want to have happen. What's 441 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 6: your sense, your assessment of the quality of that relationship today, 442 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 6: The degree to which Israel is taking the advice of 443 00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 6: the US here is it as it pursues wars on 444 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 6: many fronts. 445 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 10: I think the relationship is a really good one. It 446 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:59,919 Speaker 10: really doesn't change with administration because our reser so vitally 447 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:00,440 Speaker 10: or twine. 448 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 9: But you have to look at me with Nan Yahoo. 449 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 10: I mean, I know he's very controversial, including within the 450 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,880 Speaker 10: Israeli community, but he has run a very effective program. 451 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 9: So he listens. 452 00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,399 Speaker 10: He really he's listening, but then he reclculates it within 453 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:16,400 Speaker 10: what he thinks is possible and how much he can 454 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 10: move this right. So I think he's listening, but I 455 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 10: think he's decided. I think I've got this one right. 456 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 10: I'm gonna I'm going to factor it in, but i'll 457 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 10: factor it in unless it's contrary to what I think 458 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 10: this needs to be played here. This is true internally 459 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 10: as well. So I think he's listening, but he's decided 460 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,360 Speaker 10: there's one way to handle this problem, and he's pursuing 461 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 10: a very specific plan if he's not going against nuclear targets, 462 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 10: because he also feels that this might be the moment, 463 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 10: not quite the right moment, and it's too it's letting 464 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,520 Speaker 10: open Pandora's box and he's not ready for it. So 465 00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 10: it's a It's a really interesting and complex relationship. But 466 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:58,680 Speaker 10: people shouldn't get confused about who Ally is. 467 00:23:58,760 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 9: And I don't think either. 468 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,480 Speaker 10: Ad Minuet is confused that the importance of Israel in 469 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 10: the Middle East and stability. 470 00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 9: So you know, I touch through the political jabbering. 471 00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:13,520 Speaker 10: If you will, and I'm convinced the relationship is solid. 472 00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 10: But he's driving it with all due respect to our 473 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,760 Speaker 10: influence around the world. But it will look like he's listening. 474 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:21,400 Speaker 3: Jack. 475 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 4: Always great to get your thoughts in your perspective, Jack 476 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 4: to mine, folks. He's a founder and chairman of the 477 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,959 Speaker 4: ark And Group. He is a thirty two year veteran 478 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,119 Speaker 4: of the Central Intelligence Agency. Will reserved us both Acting 479 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 4: Director and Associate Director of the CIA's operations outside the 480 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 4: United States, as well as chief of the Latin American 481 00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:39,880 Speaker 4: the Division, the head of the CIA's count and Narconic Center, 482 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:42,800 Speaker 4: head of CIA's Afghan Task Force. 483 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 484 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:55,600 Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 485 00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 486 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 2: us live every week day on YouTube and always on 487 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:02,840 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg terminal. 488 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:04,639 Speaker 4: All right, folks, you daily look at the front pages 489 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:09,680 Speaker 4: around the world at LISTEO. Wealthy Americans are paying millions 490 00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:11,680 Speaker 4: to live in luxury retirement communities. 491 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:13,480 Speaker 1: Have you thought about what are you going to stay 492 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:14,919 Speaker 1: in the Jersey Compound Forever. 493 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 4: Yes, yes, that's the plane. 494 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 11: Exactly in the Jersey Shore. 495 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,639 Speaker 1: Well, a lot of wealthy Americans, they are they're paying 496 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 1: a lot of money to go to these retirement communities 497 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,920 Speaker 1: that are now luxury retirement communities. They're called life planned community. 498 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:30,360 Speaker 5: Boy. 499 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:32,560 Speaker 1: The reason they're called that is because you start an 500 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 1: apartment and then you can move to nursing like care moved, 501 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,640 Speaker 1: yes to that, to that section, so you have one 502 00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:42,639 Speaker 1: place to go because they're finding that a lot of 503 00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 1: people find it difficult to find homes for their parents 504 00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:47,560 Speaker 1: once they reach that level where they have to go 505 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 1: to nursing home status. So they're saying, if you start now, 506 00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,040 Speaker 1: then they already have that in to get there. 507 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,400 Speaker 4: And there's one in your neighborhood, right is that kind 508 00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:57,760 Speaker 4: of what we're talking about In Jersey. 509 00:25:57,920 --> 00:25:59,479 Speaker 3: There's one where and I live. 510 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:03,480 Speaker 4: There's one that they put up like three or four towers. 511 00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 11: Right, Yeah, it's a whole community. But this is like 512 00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:07,320 Speaker 11: way over. 513 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 1: I mean you want to hear the prices for these Okay, 514 00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:12,399 Speaker 1: So they have pools, beautiful grounds, fancy meals. 515 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:14,760 Speaker 11: An upfront payment can range from. 516 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:17,879 Speaker 1: Just over a million dollars for one bedroom yes, to 517 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:19,280 Speaker 1: more than seven. 518 00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 11: Million for a three bedroom. 519 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 3: Wow. 520 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 1: What and then you have the monthly fees you know, 521 00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:27,320 Speaker 1: for the amenities, thirteen eight hundred dollars for housekeeping. 522 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 11: This is ballet. Yeah, so this is like another level. 523 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:34,879 Speaker 1: This is Silicon Valley. This is the v at Palo Alto. Okay, 524 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 1: So that's what they're talking about. But I mean there 525 00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 1: are other places, yes, that do have these, they're not 526 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,040 Speaker 1: as expensive. But like I said, the baby boomers saw 527 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:43,840 Speaker 1: what their parents went through, and they don't want their 528 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,120 Speaker 1: kids to go through the same trouble. So that's why 529 00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 1: this is becoming popular. 530 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:49,359 Speaker 6: Not to harp on North Carolina too much, but I 531 00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:51,480 Speaker 6: mean there're a ton of these around in you and see, Yeah, 532 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:53,600 Speaker 6: a lot of people moving to the area just for them. 533 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 6: And then you have you know, they draw from the universities, 534 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 6: have all of this cultural I mean, we. 535 00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,680 Speaker 4: Did consider thinking about, you know, the kind of retirement years, 536 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:03,680 Speaker 4: thinking like the Greater Dupe community. But this is too 537 00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:05,359 Speaker 4: far from the ocea, you know, it's too far from 538 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:05,680 Speaker 4: the ocean. 539 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:09,160 Speaker 3: So we sit ury sure, sure, right, very good. 540 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 1: Did you know there was a big celebration over the 541 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,760 Speaker 1: weekend for the New York City Subway one hundred and 542 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 1: twenty years old. Well, yes, it happened yesterday A big part. 543 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,439 Speaker 1: The first subway train left from City Hall to one 544 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,080 Speaker 1: hundred and forty fifth Street in Harlem October twenty seventh, 545 00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:28,879 Speaker 1: nineteen oh four. It made it uptown in twenty six minutes. 546 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:29,960 Speaker 11: There you go. At the time. 547 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,960 Speaker 6: Today, I was gonna ask. 548 00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:34,440 Speaker 11: How was that compared to today? 549 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 4: I ride the City Subway every single day, which I've 550 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,400 Speaker 4: done since I don't know, nineteen eighty six. 551 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:43,439 Speaker 3: It's the only it's. 552 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,520 Speaker 4: By far the most efficient way to get around that now. True, 553 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:47,960 Speaker 4: but I don't know why people do anything different. I mean, 554 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:51,640 Speaker 4: and I'll make the claim here today, from today versus 555 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,440 Speaker 4: my first day in nineteen eighty six, the subway experience 556 00:27:55,560 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 4: no change. With one big, one big exception air condition 557 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,640 Speaker 4: car yeah back only about half a card condition. 558 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:08,119 Speaker 3: Now they're all air conditions, the same, grubby people, the same. 559 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,280 Speaker 4: Everything you want to say that you don't like about 560 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,359 Speaker 4: the subway today is the same as it was nineteen 561 00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,520 Speaker 4: eighty six. Sta So people say it's gotten so much more, 562 00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 4: something like, no, it hasn't. You haven't ridden the subway. 563 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:20,600 Speaker 6: Well, there were grand plans to kind of modernize a 564 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:22,919 Speaker 6: lot of these stations and make things better with the 565 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 6: money from congestion pricing, which is on holding course, thanks 566 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:27,760 Speaker 6: the governor. So we'll see if that changes. But you know, 567 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 6: there's there's room for improvement. 568 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,520 Speaker 4: I would say always, always, But I mean it gets 569 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,240 Speaker 4: how many gajillion people around this island. 570 00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 6: Every day back to the norm that we had in 571 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 6: pre pandemic? 572 00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:38,080 Speaker 3: I think, but I think, what do we know we're not? 573 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,040 Speaker 3: Are we back up here that we're very close to it? 574 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:42,080 Speaker 6: If there was that kind of trough for a while 575 00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,959 Speaker 6: and things were, things were strange, stranger on the subway. 576 00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,000 Speaker 4: But I don't know how you get around the city. 577 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 3: I mean, you're riding your bike? Are you doing it? 578 00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:53,360 Speaker 6: Get that best bike? You haven't done that yet? 579 00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:55,880 Speaker 3: No? Exactly right? All right? What else you got? 580 00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,200 Speaker 11: Okay, So New York this is in the New York Post. 581 00:28:58,200 --> 00:28:59,920 Speaker 1: Okay, so New York will poorly banned the sale of 582 00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 1: caffeine infused cannabis. Now caffeine infused cannabis, it's just counter caffeine, 583 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,640 Speaker 1: So state regular is apparently banned it. There are cannabis 584 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:17,720 Speaker 1: pills also infused with caffeine. Apparently it's popular with fitness enthusiasts. 585 00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:19,840 Speaker 4: You're the only fitness is and I'm not these I 586 00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,280 Speaker 4: don't get it. What do you do for your like 587 00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 4: your energy? You're just water. 588 00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:24,920 Speaker 11: It's just me. 589 00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:28,960 Speaker 6: It's just ridesillan wave. 590 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,240 Speaker 11: Yes, but apparently this is the thing. 591 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:36,200 Speaker 1: It's called Go and Genius. They're marketed as energy stimulants. 592 00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 1: But the company is appealing this ruling, so we'll see 593 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:40,800 Speaker 1: what happens. But it's been sold in New York since 594 00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 1: February of last year. 595 00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:43,400 Speaker 11: But it's a base. 596 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:45,920 Speaker 3: So is it different than Red Bull and stuff like that. 597 00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:51,440 Speaker 11: I guess so because it's it has ta yes. So okay, 598 00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:52,080 Speaker 11: the watage. 599 00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:54,320 Speaker 6: Do you have a lot of dispensarieson I mean there 600 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,560 Speaker 6: we do. Yeah, I guess there's like two hundred something 601 00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:58,760 Speaker 6: in New York State. But I've noticed in Brooklyn there 602 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:00,360 Speaker 6: were a lot of these shops that have been closed 603 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,560 Speaker 6: down by the sheriff. We have a sheriff apparently. 604 00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:04,320 Speaker 4: Well yeah, I mean he used to be in midtown Manhattan, 605 00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 4: just within like a three square block of Penn Station. 606 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 3: They're ga jillion of doscincs. Now they're all shot within 607 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:11,480 Speaker 3: like a day. They all just the city said no 608 00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 3: more so. But yeah in Jersey. Yeah, we got to Neptune. 609 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,080 Speaker 4: That's our place to go. And I'll say, you go 610 00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:21,640 Speaker 4: to this dispensary New Jersey. It is every walk of life, 611 00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:25,840 Speaker 4: from the wealthiest retiree to the kid off the streets, 612 00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,960 Speaker 4: every color shaped form. It is the great equalizer. Go 613 00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:32,960 Speaker 4: into the dispensary and it's a they do a you know, 614 00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:33,760 Speaker 4: great business. 615 00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:35,720 Speaker 6: That's America. 616 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 9: That's America. 617 00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,000 Speaker 3: Very good on the selection year. All right, we got 618 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:39,600 Speaker 3: the World Series. 619 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:41,080 Speaker 11: Yes, World Series. Okay. 620 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:42,959 Speaker 1: So the New York Times has this interesting look when 621 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,800 Speaker 1: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman loved the Dodgers. 622 00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 11: I didn't realize. 623 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:47,240 Speaker 3: I didn't know that. 624 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,200 Speaker 11: Yeah, so he told The New York Times. 625 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:51,440 Speaker 1: He grew up in Lexicon, Kentucky. 626 00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:52,720 Speaker 11: His parents were from New York. 627 00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:54,840 Speaker 1: Most of the family supported the Yankees, but he says 628 00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 1: he was a standout, the outcast. He was the Dodgers fan. 629 00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,800 Speaker 1: And he says he doesn't really know why he was. 630 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:02,440 Speaker 1: Maybe it was because they were a great team in 631 00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 1: the seventies when he was growing up, but he just 632 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,640 Speaker 1: says he was a bat boy at the Dodgers for 633 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,920 Speaker 1: their spring training, so he was really involved with him 634 00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 1: but you know, then he started working for the Yankees 635 00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:14,480 Speaker 1: and things change. 636 00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:18,280 Speaker 4: So Rich Truman's favorite general manager is that right really 637 00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:23,240 Speaker 4: loves loves, loves cash and interesting coach Franklin Penn state 638 00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 4: Rich Truman's favorite calm. 639 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:26,400 Speaker 6: There we go. I'm learning so much here. 640 00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:27,880 Speaker 11: Exactly, but I didn't know this. 641 00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,400 Speaker 1: So he started at a college internet with the Yankees 642 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,200 Speaker 1: in eighty six. He worked his way up assistant general manager, 643 00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,760 Speaker 1: then general manager for the past twenty seven years. 644 00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,480 Speaker 6: So intrigue this article is great. But the intrigue that 645 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,800 Speaker 6: I loved is that Frank Mcourt tried to hire him 646 00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:42,600 Speaker 6: to the Dodgers from the Yankees. 647 00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:43,920 Speaker 3: Yes, yes, for less. 648 00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:45,760 Speaker 6: Money, for less money, and he made more money, but 649 00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:47,480 Speaker 6: it was more money, but he stayed. He stayed at 650 00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:49,520 Speaker 6: the Yankees for less money. So I think at that 651 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,800 Speaker 6: point he felt like he had some Steinbrenner loyalty. 652 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:52,080 Speaker 3: I mean, Yank. 653 00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, the Yankees are down to nothing, coming back to 654 00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:59,240 Speaker 4: the Bronx tonight for three games, I believe, and the 655 00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,240 Speaker 4: Judge show up. Yeah, next three in New York, thanks Harry, 656 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:04,320 Speaker 4: and then we'll see what happens if they can kind 657 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,840 Speaker 4: of write this ship here. But after the football we can. 658 00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 4: We had with the Jets. The New York sports market 659 00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:12,200 Speaker 4: needs some positive. 660 00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,840 Speaker 6: News coming out, and Tani is playing right? Can I 661 00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:15,600 Speaker 6: get an update on that? 662 00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:16,120 Speaker 3: Yes? 663 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:20,000 Speaker 6: Yes, the shoulder is fine, Yeah, workable, okay, good, exactly right? 664 00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,600 Speaker 4: So all right, Lisa Miteo with the newspapers, Thank you 665 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:22,959 Speaker 4: so much. 666 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:24,240 Speaker 3: We appreciate that always. 667 00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:29,360 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 668 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:33,600 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 669 00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,800 Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 670 00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:40,680 Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 671 00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:44,000 Speaker 2: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 672 00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:45,760 Speaker 2: always on the Bloomberg terminal