WEBVTT - Using Existing Drugs to Treat COVID-19

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the

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<v Speaker 1>latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,

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<v Speaker 1>all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course Carol that's part of a team of

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<v Speaker 1>twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You

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<v Speaker 1>can also listen to our radio show at two pm

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<v Speaker 1>Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. It's gonna be a

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<v Speaker 1>big week. It's gonna be a big week in the markets.

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<v Speaker 1>It's gonna be a big week for earnings. Let's understand

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<v Speaker 1>where we are on this Monday by setting the Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week agenda with Gina Martin Adams, chief Equity Strategies for

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<v Speaker 1>Bloombery Intelligence on the phone from New Jersey, along with

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<v Speaker 1>Dave Wilson, Stocks Editor, author of the Chart and Stock

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<v Speaker 1>of the Day. He also joins us from New Jersey. Gina,

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<v Speaker 1>I want to start with, you set the table. This

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<v Speaker 1>is a big week. It is. As a matter of fact,

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<v Speaker 1>it's the second biggest week of earnings. The biggest week

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<v Speaker 1>of earnings will be next week, but this is the

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<v Speaker 1>second biggest week of earnings. We've got roughly of the

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<v Speaker 1>market cap of the SMPI set to report Microsoft, Intel,

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<v Speaker 1>and Verizon, or some of the headliners this week. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that there's a lot of making up to

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<v Speaker 1>do for somewhat disappointing financials reports. A financials beat generally

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<v Speaker 1>beat second quarter earnings last week. Of the companies that

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<v Speaker 1>have reported earnings so far, I've actually beat expectations, but

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<v Speaker 1>that wasn't really enough for a market especially sensitive to

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening with the outlook as estimates moved down. So

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<v Speaker 1>what I think we need to see this week is

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<v Speaker 1>some of these big tech names confirmed the optimism embedded

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<v Speaker 1>in prices and at least confirmed that the outlook for

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<v Speaker 1>one is pretty strong for stocks to continue to move higher. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>we need, Gina, like, give me something, right, Yeah, something

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<v Speaker 1>other than a modest beat to a horrible second quarter

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<v Speaker 1>expectation is definitely what the market means. I have to say,

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<v Speaker 1>because I've had a bunch of conversations every weekend with

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<v Speaker 1>people in different industries, and there's a lot of pessimism

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<v Speaker 1>out there, real concerns about what the economic backdrop is.

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<v Speaker 1>Dave Coman in on our conversation talked to us a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit about the trade today because it really is

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<v Speaker 1>tech driven absolutely. I mean, if you talk about let's

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<v Speaker 1>say the fanmag stocks or the big six however you

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<v Speaker 1>want to refer to them, and we're talking Amazon, Apple, Google,

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<v Speaker 1>their owner, uh, Alphabet, you know, Microsoft, Netflix, Facebook, It's

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<v Speaker 1>probably out of order, but that's okay. I mean that

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<v Speaker 1>basically that's it. That's the entire game in those six stocks.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, it really comes down to uh, you know, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple,

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<v Speaker 1>and Alphabet pretty much. I mean it just goes to

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<v Speaker 1>show you, you know, there's been so much a focus

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<v Speaker 1>on these larger tech companies and they really are carrying

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<v Speaker 1>the day at this point. You know, anticipation that they're

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<v Speaker 1>already are gonna look better than what we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>see from a whole lot of other companies, for doably,

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<v Speaker 1>is part of that. I Mean you'll look at you know,

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<v Speaker 1>stock indexes and you see, you know, the consumer discretionary

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<v Speaker 1>group is leading the way, and that's the retailers, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's all Amazon, you know, That's how it is. And

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<v Speaker 1>right behind behind them of the tech stocks and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>communications services, which is Facebook and Alphabet and everything elseide

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<v Speaker 1>the eleven main industry groups is lower. So it just

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<v Speaker 1>goes to show you, you know, how things are are

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<v Speaker 1>setting up at this point as we await the second

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<v Speaker 1>quarter results. Yeah, Gina, I don't know. You've seen so

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<v Speaker 1>many market cycles, you know, you have, you have such

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<v Speaker 1>great insight. I know. One of the things that everybody's

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<v Speaker 1>reading on the trammel today's about ned Davis Research kind

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<v Speaker 1>of changing their tune when it comes uh to the

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<v Speaker 1>market outlook and thinking more like changing. I think it

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<v Speaker 1>was their their bullish really just abandoning their bullish call

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<v Speaker 1>in US equities. What do you look for? Who do

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<v Speaker 1>you also like to follow that gives you a good

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<v Speaker 1>idea of kind of where we go from here? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean so, I think you do. Look for the

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<v Speaker 1>rate of change in economic momentum is one of the

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<v Speaker 1>bigger drivers of potential optimism emerging for stocks going forward,

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<v Speaker 1>and the fact that really the economic the perception is

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<v Speaker 1>that the economic momentum is going to stall over the

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<v Speaker 1>next couple of months, as we have had a renewed

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<v Speaker 1>spike in infection rate, and that's that's one of the

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<v Speaker 1>things that certainly is holding back a lot of confidence,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of sentiment toward the outlook, and we probably

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<v Speaker 1>need to see that remove to get people coming back

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<v Speaker 1>to equities and mass. But I do think the other

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<v Speaker 1>side of the story is the FED has reinflated tremendously.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a pretty reasonable prospect that we're going to get

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<v Speaker 1>another fiscal policy package out of Europe. We may get

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<v Speaker 1>another fiscal policy package supporting the U S economy as

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<v Speaker 1>well in the next couple of weeks, and that's most

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<v Speaker 1>likely going to surprise these really sort of grim expectations

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<v Speaker 1>to the upside because it is liquidity. It is money,

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<v Speaker 1>um that's going to help support the economies directly in

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<v Speaker 1>some way, shape or form. Maybe it's not the most

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<v Speaker 1>efficient money, but it is money, uh, And I think

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<v Speaker 1>you do need to price that in. I mean, I

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<v Speaker 1>take the point that Fang is driving a lot of gains.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we look at the Big five and column

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<v Speaker 1>Fang of FAMIG sorry, and you do see that those

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<v Speaker 1>valuations relative to the rest of the SMP are extremely high. However,

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<v Speaker 1>this is not just the U S story. This is

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<v Speaker 1>something we wrote about last week too. If you look

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<v Speaker 1>at that the big tech ducts in China, the gap

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<v Speaker 1>they're in valuations is even bigger than the big tech

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<v Speaker 1>gap here in the US. So this is a global phenomenon.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a global tech concentration that I do think

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<v Speaker 1>is somewhat at risk, but nonetheless it keeps defying every

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<v Speaker 1>but every skeptics expectations that continue to continue to go. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and just to clarify, bat we're talking about bay Do

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<v Speaker 1>Ali Baba and ten cent. Correct, that's correct. Yeah, there

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<v Speaker 1>you go an exactly. Thank you so much, Gina Martin Adams,

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<v Speaker 1>Chief Equity Strategies for Bluework Intelligence from New Jersey, as

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<v Speaker 1>was Dave Wilson, Stock editor for Bluework Well. The cet

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<v Speaker 1>Athlete stands for COVID nineteen Early Treatment and FUN. Founded

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<v Speaker 1>by entrepreneur and philanthropist Steve Kirsch this year mid the pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>The FUN recruits physicians, scientists, epidemiologists to work on repurposing

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<v Speaker 1>drugs to treat the virus. So interesting, especially on a

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<v Speaker 1>day when we got some more news about a vaccine specifically,

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<v Speaker 1>let's bring in Dr Lisa Danzig. She's focused on infectious disease.

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<v Speaker 1>She spent over eighteen years at Novards Vaccines and Diagnostics.

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<v Speaker 1>She's the chief medical Advisor at c et F and

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<v Speaker 1>she's on the phone from San Francisco. Dr Danzig, it

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<v Speaker 1>is so great to have you here on Bloomberg Radio

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<v Speaker 1>with Jason and myself. Tell us a little bit more

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<v Speaker 1>about this fun it's a new thing, right, but tell

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<v Speaker 1>us about the group that are involved and the pursuit

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<v Speaker 1>that you are all after. Well, Carol and Jason, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much for having me on and and thank

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<v Speaker 1>you for your coverage of this really important outbreak. The

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<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen Early Treatment Fund was created to address the

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<v Speaker 1>critical gap in our global COVID response, and that is

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<v Speaker 1>to fund clinical trials of repurpose drugs that could lead

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<v Speaker 1>to effect of early treatments for COVID. And so how

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<v Speaker 1>do you identify those We have a scientific advisory board UM.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the things that UM, Steve Kersh, who founded

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<v Speaker 1>this organization, is a tech entrepreneur and he's very fast moving,

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<v Speaker 1>results oriented, but he's not a stranger to philanthropy in

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<v Speaker 1>the healthcare area, and the first thing he did was

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<v Speaker 1>assembled really a world class scientific advisory board and got

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<v Speaker 1>the word out for funding requests. So he has over

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<v Speaker 1>forty proposals. They've all been qualified, they've all been reviewed,

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<v Speaker 1>they've all been prioritized, and all we need now is

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<v Speaker 1>another twenty million dollars to get the most promising nine

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<v Speaker 1>trials up and off the ground too rapidly get information

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<v Speaker 1>on which of these may be most promising. Dr Denson,

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<v Speaker 1>where does this fit within the grand pursuit of a

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine and treatments overall? Because I do think, Jason, I've

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<v Speaker 1>had a lot of conversations that we all understand that

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<v Speaker 1>right now there needs to be global coordinations. So your

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<v Speaker 1>efforts certainly sounds interesting and promising, But how does it

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<v Speaker 1>fit into that global pursuit to make sure that you're

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<v Speaker 1>not kind of repeating something that somebody else is going after. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>this is a highly coordinated effort. There's there's some mad rush.

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<v Speaker 1>There were three important papers on the list of repurposing.

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<v Speaker 1>You need a little bit of duplication and science, but

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<v Speaker 1>certainly not a lot of redundancy. Many look to a

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine is the best hope for recovery, but we need tools,

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<v Speaker 1>we need we need treatments and tools. And this disease

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<v Speaker 1>is so unique because we don't just need anti virals.

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<v Speaker 1>We also need immune modulators, and we also need rescue

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<v Speaker 1>agents and strategies when when people are in advanced stages

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<v Speaker 1>of this disease. So you know, because of the three

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<v Speaker 1>different types of therapeutic modalities that we need for early, moderate,

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<v Speaker 1>and late disease, we need mousive parallel efforts. And so

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<v Speaker 1>what are some of the early findings in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>either identifying some promising potentials or how should we as

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<v Speaker 1>candidly like regular people be thinking about this in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of what the because we're all looking for some optimism,

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<v Speaker 1>some ray of hope here, Um, give us some if

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<v Speaker 1>you can. Yeah, well, we're looking for the early yes,

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<v Speaker 1>in the early no. But the four c ETSD funded

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<v Speaker 1>a hydroxy clorquine study that gave an early no. We're

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<v Speaker 1>looking for the early yes. There a number of interfer

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<v Speaker 1>on LAMBA studies and rolling right now. There's one at Stanford.

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<v Speaker 1>It's more than halfway through the DSMB. Halfway Um said,

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<v Speaker 1>safety looks good, you should continue. If it didn't look good,

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<v Speaker 1>we would have not continued. So so that's encouraging. We

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<v Speaker 1>got to get these trials enrolled well. And what's well,

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<v Speaker 1>what's interesting too is and this is I think you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Jason and I have talked to a lot of individuals,

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<v Speaker 1>um including just last week we're talking to the CEO

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<v Speaker 1>of a NOVA and we've all been talking to the

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<v Speaker 1>folks at Maderna. You know, UM about the pursuit of

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<v Speaker 1>a vaccine. But it's a vaccine, but as you said,

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna need treatments, not just the anti virals. We're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna need treatments that can take care of people at

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<v Speaker 1>different stages of the virus to prevent them from dying. Ultimately.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what this is about. It's about both. So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the idea of an early anti viral, if you can

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<v Speaker 1>prevent the second I get a positive test early symptoms,

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<v Speaker 1>then you know, maybe we can prevent with an anti

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<v Speaker 1>viral the late stage immunological complications that that wind up

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<v Speaker 1>causing all the severe morbidity and um and require different

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<v Speaker 1>kinds of therapies. So there are a lot of approaches

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<v Speaker 1>and anti viral there are a lot of approaches and

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<v Speaker 1>immune modulators, things like interfere on things like I L

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<v Speaker 1>six inhibitors. There are immune signaling pathways that are being

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<v Speaker 1>evaluated for which there's encouraging results. People are looking at

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<v Speaker 1>repurposing screens to see if some drugs on the shelf

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<v Speaker 1>somehow inhibit the pathway, like dux dass and the alpha

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<v Speaker 1>blocker is is um has uh reducis catacholamy. So there's

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<v Speaker 1>all sorts of really good work. The problem is there's um.

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<v Speaker 1>There's nine two potential agents that we could look at,

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<v Speaker 1>and so we're not going to get the data. We

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<v Speaker 1>need a rapid screen of yes or no to help

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<v Speaker 1>our ecosystem of drug manufacturers and accelerators in our network

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<v Speaker 1>of larger trials to know which drugs are promising, which

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<v Speaker 1>ones to accelerate, and which ones don't have a signal

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<v Speaker 1>that maybe we need to rotate out of them. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>get back to our conversation with Lisa Danzigg. She is

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<v Speaker 1>the Chief Medical Advisor for the COVID nineteen Early Treatment

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<v Speaker 1>Fund c et F. Joinning is on the phone from

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<v Speaker 1>San Francisco. So Lisa, I want to jump ahead a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit just because I want to make sure that

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<v Speaker 1>Carol and I understand there's at least I understand. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>sure Carol already gets it. But you know this all

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<v Speaker 1>this work, what happens next? You know, quick yesses, quick nos.

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<v Speaker 1>You find something that works or a combination of things

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<v Speaker 1>that work, how does it sort of get out to

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<v Speaker 1>the public. What's the means of distribution here? Right? That's

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<v Speaker 1>a great question, especially for it shows the beauty of

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<v Speaker 1>the approach for repurpose drugs. In drug development, you've got

0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:19.760
<v Speaker 1>to manufacturer in vaccine, were massively um uh, proceeding with

0:12:19.800 --> 0:12:22.960
<v Speaker 1>this perile effort to manufacture the vaccine before we even

0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:26.760
<v Speaker 1>know it works. The beauty of the repurpose drugs is

0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:29.520
<v Speaker 1>many of the things that we're testing are already in manufacturing,

0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:33.000
<v Speaker 1>are already able to be used. So the barrier to

0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:38.040
<v Speaker 1>scale up and distribution are really limited by the information

0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:40.160
<v Speaker 1>does it work or not? Uh. There are a lot

0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:43.200
<v Speaker 1>of groups. There's the NIH, there's a number of global

0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:47.679
<v Speaker 1>adaptive trials where additional follow up or confirmatory testing can

0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:50.240
<v Speaker 1>be So the first thing would be getting into broader trials,

0:12:50.600 --> 0:12:52.760
<v Speaker 1>and then the second would be working with the generic

0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:56.800
<v Speaker 1>manufacturers on their supply chain and their distribution. But it's

0:12:56.840 --> 0:13:01.800
<v Speaker 1>a much faster process. Lisa, how why is it so

0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:04.720
<v Speaker 1>important to focus on this kind of research that you

0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:07.720
<v Speaker 1>guys are doing, I guess treatment research right as opposed

0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:09.880
<v Speaker 1>to just working on a vaccine. And I do wonder

0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:13.400
<v Speaker 1>what role the federal government, which has given money to

0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:16.880
<v Speaker 1>teams that are working specifically on a vaccine, what role

0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:18.840
<v Speaker 1>the government needs to have in this, because I think

0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:22.600
<v Speaker 1>we as a society need to understand, you know, like

0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:24.600
<v Speaker 1>you said, we need a vaccine, but we also need

0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:28.480
<v Speaker 1>these treatments, Like how important this component is to really

0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:32.040
<v Speaker 1>get in control here? Well, this is a critical component.

0:13:32.080 --> 0:13:34.840
<v Speaker 1>I asked myself the same question in January as I

0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:38.800
<v Speaker 1>saw this unrolling. I'm a vaccine developer and sitting on

0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.160
<v Speaker 1>the sidelines saying, you know, how do I follow this?

0:13:41.320 --> 0:13:44.760
<v Speaker 1>I'm following what I know, which is drugs diagnostics and

0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:49.120
<v Speaker 1>um vaccine development. And I didn't see the response. This

0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:51.439
<v Speaker 1>should there should this should be part of a coordinated

0:13:51.679 --> 0:13:55.520
<v Speaker 1>global and a coordinated federal response, and I didn't see

0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:58.360
<v Speaker 1>it happening. And you know, we don't have time to wait.

0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:02.320
<v Speaker 1>And this grassroots effort um that people like me are

0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:07.120
<v Speaker 1>self activating, we're joining, we're teeming all of the investigators

0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:11.040
<v Speaker 1>that are submitting trials don't have a bias to the

0:14:11.080 --> 0:14:13.680
<v Speaker 1>product that they're submitting. They want to work together. So

0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:16.960
<v Speaker 1>we're really creating a global collaborative network to deal with

0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:19.360
<v Speaker 1>the disease that we've never seen before, and we're just

0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:22.600
<v Speaker 1>beginning to understand. But how does something like ramdesvie or

0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:26.640
<v Speaker 1>hydro hydroxy chloroquine kind of get attention, right, that's a

0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:29.520
<v Speaker 1>treatment modality. How do they get attention versus some of

0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:31.600
<v Speaker 1>the other things that you guys are working on that

0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:36.360
<v Speaker 1>maybe or not there. That's a good question. I'm gonna

0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:39.280
<v Speaker 1>I'm not a media person. Obviously, they were there first

0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:44.240
<v Speaker 1>and they're they're they they got amplified. And I think

0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:46.520
<v Speaker 1>the point that I'm bringing is there are a lot

0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:50.040
<v Speaker 1>of other places to look hydroxy chloroquine. The datas and

0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:52.080
<v Speaker 1>the data is mixed at best. We've got a bunch

0:14:52.080 --> 0:14:55.520
<v Speaker 1>of negative data, We've got some safety concerns. Let's bring

0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:58.080
<v Speaker 1>some other things in Q. Let's get as excited. There's

0:14:58.080 --> 0:15:01.880
<v Speaker 1>two and some clinical try else for hypodroxy chloroquine. Let's

0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:04.720
<v Speaker 1>convert some of them and if somebody wants to look

0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:07.480
<v Speaker 1>at our trials, we've got treat early dot org. There

0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:09.920
<v Speaker 1>are three ways people can get involved, they can donate,

0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:13.600
<v Speaker 1>participate UM, which means find a trial that's running in

0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:15.960
<v Speaker 1>case you want to enroll, are able to enroll, or

0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:19.560
<v Speaker 1>apply for funding. Is it just lastly, just thirty seconds?

0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:21.920
<v Speaker 1>Are there any any treatments out there that you think

0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:25.760
<v Speaker 1>should be on our radar? UM watching Uh the pig

0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:28.520
<v Speaker 1>ladd interfere in Lambda trial which is running at a

0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:31.560
<v Speaker 1>number of sites. We're watching Favo pier of here, which

0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:34.560
<v Speaker 1>is nanti influimsa drug licensed in Japan that's being used

0:15:34.560 --> 0:15:40.520
<v Speaker 1>in China and Russia for UM UH for COVID camistat

0:15:40.920 --> 0:15:44.680
<v Speaker 1>is um an anti. It's a drug licensed in Japan

0:15:44.800 --> 0:15:49.320
<v Speaker 1>for pancreatitis and it's thought to inhibit an enzyme that's

0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:53.240
<v Speaker 1>required to activate the spike protein to enter the cell.

0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:57.080
<v Speaker 1>And uh, you know, we're looking at monoclon al antibodies.

0:15:57.240 --> 0:16:01.080
<v Speaker 1>There's there's a there's a long list go to treat

0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:05.760
<v Speaker 1>treat early dot org. All right, well, we really appreciate

0:16:05.800 --> 0:16:08.800
<v Speaker 1>it to let us know how stuff is going. Yeah,

0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:11.520
<v Speaker 1>keep us posted. UM, we really appreciate your work. Chief

0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:14.520
<v Speaker 1>Medical adviser for the COVID nineteen Early Treatment Fund, joining

0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:16.760
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from San Francisco, I have to say.

0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:19.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean, when I get sort of despondent about everything

0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:22.440
<v Speaker 1>that's going on, I do think about all the scientists

0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:27.080
<v Speaker 1>who are mobilizing around this. I think it's arguably, inarguably

0:16:27.480 --> 0:16:29.800
<v Speaker 1>in a way that they've never mobilized on anything before.

0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:31.400
<v Speaker 1>And we're all gonna have to play a role because

0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:33.080
<v Speaker 1>they do have to do testing. There's going to have

0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:34.520
<v Speaker 1>to be human trials in order to get it up

0:16:34.520 --> 0:16:37.360
<v Speaker 1>and running. You are listening to Bloomberg Business Week, Jason

0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:40.400
<v Speaker 1>Kelly and Carol Master here with you on a Monday afternoon.

0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:44.880
<v Speaker 1>Got a word for you, Yes, awkward Yeah Oko taco.

0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:48.880
<v Speaker 1>As the kids would say, Um, this is a fantastic story.

0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:51.000
<v Speaker 1>I couldn't get enough of it as I was reading

0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:53.880
<v Speaker 1>it this morning. Sherena Rajan wrote it a great quarter

0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:56.600
<v Speaker 1>for Wall Street comes at a very awkward time, as

0:16:56.640 --> 0:16:58.240
<v Speaker 1>Carol just said. He joins us on the phone from

0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:00.960
<v Speaker 1>New York City. Bloombergs Week editor Joel Webber. He joins

0:17:00.960 --> 0:17:03.960
<v Speaker 1>this from Massachusetts. Joel talked to me about this. I

0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:06.920
<v Speaker 1>mean this, I feel like they're there are these times

0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:10.399
<v Speaker 1>that said this on this program before we're like Bloomberg Markets.

0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:13.560
<v Speaker 1>Joel and Bloomberg Business Week, Joel sort of collide and

0:17:13.640 --> 0:17:16.560
<v Speaker 1>it shows up in the magazine and I love it. Well.

0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:19.640
<v Speaker 1>I've been, uh, I think we've been We've been begging

0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:24.840
<v Speaker 1>three uh to write stuff for the magazine, uh for

0:17:24.840 --> 0:17:30.120
<v Speaker 1>for years and and uh, you know, I finally got

0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:33.640
<v Speaker 1>him his attention. UM. No, I'm joking, UM, but it

0:17:33.720 --> 0:17:36.679
<v Speaker 1>was I think in really interesting week last week UM

0:17:36.840 --> 0:17:40.840
<v Speaker 1>on Wall Street, UM, as all the banks reported their earnings,

0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:43.440
<v Speaker 1>and you know, basically it was just like one day,

0:17:43.480 --> 0:17:45.800
<v Speaker 1>one day, one day, next day, next day, next day,

0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:48.919
<v Speaker 1>and we just saw this you know, constant trickle of news.

0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:50.440
<v Speaker 1>And by the end of the week, I was just like,

0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:53.040
<v Speaker 1>I I just kind of want something to step back

0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:56.280
<v Speaker 1>and and write about the this moment, because you know,

0:17:56.320 --> 0:17:58.280
<v Speaker 1>you guys did at the top. It's like it's been.

0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:02.879
<v Speaker 1>It's sort of an awkward one where the trading revenue,

0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:08.040
<v Speaker 1>which is something that had just basically disappeared, uh, came

0:18:08.119 --> 0:18:11.560
<v Speaker 1>back big time. But it was also a really awkward

0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:14.760
<v Speaker 1>time for that to happen while everyone else has to

0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:18.480
<v Speaker 1>sort of look on and and is not maybe having

0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:21.480
<v Speaker 1>as good of a life right now. UM. So three

0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:24.640
<v Speaker 1>where did you Where did you guys take that story?

0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:28.239
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it really takes from your point, Joe, you

0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:30.920
<v Speaker 1>have to think about the side that trading revenue truly

0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:33.520
<v Speaker 1>had disappeared over the last ten years, to the extent

0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:39.160
<v Speaker 1>that it wasn't the same engine driving wall streets power

0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:42.639
<v Speaker 1>presence and their revenues and their profit numbers. Because volatility

0:18:42.640 --> 0:18:45.240
<v Speaker 1>had gone away, the markets were sort of hoh home

0:18:45.400 --> 0:18:47.560
<v Speaker 1>and and you were sort of along for the ride

0:18:47.560 --> 0:18:51.160
<v Speaker 1>but not really making a killing. That changed, and that changed,

0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:54.280
<v Speaker 1>and remember all these trading death bosses, all these trading

0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:57.840
<v Speaker 1>that streets have been begging you, praying to have bad

0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:00.359
<v Speaker 1>a bout of volatility returned to the market so that

0:19:00.400 --> 0:19:03.680
<v Speaker 1>they can show when there's heightened level of risk. When

0:19:03.720 --> 0:19:07.479
<v Speaker 1>there's volumes link surned our left, right and center, you

0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:10.120
<v Speaker 1>can make big money. Especially if you take some risk,

0:19:10.200 --> 0:19:13.560
<v Speaker 1>you you stand to re big gains. But the problem

0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:17.199
<v Speaker 1>is when this number has come through Goldman SAX second

0:19:17.200 --> 0:19:21.200
<v Speaker 1>best revenue ever in its history, JP Morgan highest revenue ever,

0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:25.159
<v Speaker 1>Morgan Stanley highest revenue and the highest profitability ever. But

0:19:25.240 --> 0:19:27.760
<v Speaker 1>can you imagine a worse time to be able to

0:19:27.760 --> 0:19:30.760
<v Speaker 1>talk about it, because you're talking about the broader economy

0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:34.280
<v Speaker 1>where a lot of people are struggling. So this perception

0:19:34.440 --> 0:19:40.439
<v Speaker 1>of world streets biggest investment bank making a killing, that

0:19:40.640 --> 0:19:44.040
<v Speaker 1>perception at a time when everyone else is writing a

0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:48.280
<v Speaker 1>tough economy makes it. I mean, that's the main reason

0:19:48.359 --> 0:19:50.240
<v Speaker 1>we're really calling it a knock one. And the number

0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:52.880
<v Speaker 1>show at forty five billion for the top five investment

0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:56.119
<v Speaker 1>numbers we've never heard of in quite a while, and

0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:59.080
<v Speaker 1>yet for it to come right now, it does make

0:19:59.080 --> 0:20:01.960
<v Speaker 1>every one a little back both on Wall Street right, sree,

0:20:02.080 --> 0:20:04.520
<v Speaker 1>thank god they didn't cause the crisis, right, they didn't

0:20:04.520 --> 0:20:07.320
<v Speaker 1>cause the pandemic. That's at least one thing on their side.

0:20:08.480 --> 0:20:11.000
<v Speaker 1>And that's and that's the whole weird part here, right,

0:20:11.040 --> 0:20:13.200
<v Speaker 1>And when it comes across when you talk to a

0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:15.560
<v Speaker 1>lot of the Wall Street executives, I mean, we pointed

0:20:15.560 --> 0:20:17.480
<v Speaker 1>out as soon as their earnings came out, there were

0:20:17.520 --> 0:20:19.440
<v Speaker 1>some analysts who came out, the one analysts who came

0:20:19.440 --> 0:20:23.480
<v Speaker 1>out and said the government numbers of frankly indecent, force

0:20:23.560 --> 0:20:26.919
<v Speaker 1>more political action to come down the pike. And the

0:20:26.960 --> 0:20:31.000
<v Speaker 1>people we spoke to said, that's unsaid, because perhaps you

0:20:31.000 --> 0:20:33.199
<v Speaker 1>could make an argument for the two thousand eights global

0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:37.119
<v Speaker 1>financial crisis that banks did play an integral part in

0:20:37.200 --> 0:20:41.000
<v Speaker 1>bringing them the global economy. But you really can't make

0:20:41.000 --> 0:20:43.240
<v Speaker 1>the case here the virus was not birth and the

0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:47.120
<v Speaker 1>bank trading people they are they have just benefited from

0:20:47.160 --> 0:20:51.040
<v Speaker 1>the actions taken by the thread to probably economy from

0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:55.160
<v Speaker 1>from the massive surgeon voluces the massive surgeon volume. Uh.

0:20:55.160 --> 0:20:58.880
<v Speaker 1>And they have been able to write that way perfectly. Well, however,

0:20:59.600 --> 0:21:02.280
<v Speaker 1>that is not consolation enough for those on the outside.

0:21:02.280 --> 0:21:04.479
<v Speaker 1>And you can truly understand why those on the outside

0:21:04.520 --> 0:21:09.399
<v Speaker 1>of frustrators because for them, whether it's a recession or not,

0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:12.840
<v Speaker 1>wal Street always wins. When they see the narrative Walter

0:21:12.840 --> 0:21:15.760
<v Speaker 1>Street winning, they see it as wal Trade winning again.

0:21:16.119 --> 0:21:21.280
<v Speaker 1>And that's the problem that Well, I think one thing

0:21:21.320 --> 0:21:24.480
<v Speaker 1>that's interesting those three and and this is certainly true

0:21:24.520 --> 0:21:27.600
<v Speaker 1>and the earnings calls uh. And something that you bring

0:21:27.600 --> 0:21:30.520
<v Speaker 1>in this story too is that, yeah, well, while this

0:21:30.600 --> 0:21:34.280
<v Speaker 1>was maybe a pretty good quarter by the numbers, uh,

0:21:34.359 --> 0:21:37.120
<v Speaker 1>there's no there's no indication that this can they can

0:21:37.160 --> 0:21:40.040
<v Speaker 1>keep it up either, right, And even the CEOs and

0:21:40.080 --> 0:21:43.199
<v Speaker 1>whatnot have indicated as much. Um, So what is what

0:21:43.359 --> 0:21:45.760
<v Speaker 1>is it? What is the future potentially look like here?

0:21:45.840 --> 0:21:49.840
<v Speaker 1>For for the banks? Jamie dimond is Jamie Diamond is

0:21:49.960 --> 0:21:52.320
<v Speaker 1>much better position than any of us. I get sort

0:21:52.320 --> 0:21:54.000
<v Speaker 1>of give us a set of what it could look like.

0:21:54.320 --> 0:21:57.440
<v Speaker 1>He's actually saying, we could see trading revenues dropped by back,

0:21:57.680 --> 0:22:00.320
<v Speaker 1>or at least the volume and walacility and everything that

0:22:00.440 --> 0:22:04.240
<v Speaker 1>could lead to business and activity dropped by about for

0:22:04.320 --> 0:22:06.840
<v Speaker 1>the second half of the year. That is doing extent

0:22:06.960 --> 0:22:09.680
<v Speaker 1>on sendable the crazy levels that we saw in March

0:22:09.760 --> 0:22:15.080
<v Speaker 1>April May. It is incredibly hard to imagine how that's sustainable. However,

0:22:15.440 --> 0:22:17.880
<v Speaker 1>take a step back and think about the second half

0:22:17.920 --> 0:22:20.600
<v Speaker 1>of twenty twenty that we're walking into. Think about the

0:22:20.600 --> 0:22:24.280
<v Speaker 1>American elections, think about you know, the various directions that

0:22:24.480 --> 0:22:28.080
<v Speaker 1>pandemic and still they think about all the geo political

0:22:28.520 --> 0:22:31.480
<v Speaker 1>flash points across the world. It's hard to imagine that

0:22:31.520 --> 0:22:34.240
<v Speaker 1>you're going into a second half of twenty that will

0:22:34.320 --> 0:22:36.800
<v Speaker 1>be for Did it will? I don't think anyone can

0:22:36.800 --> 0:22:38.679
<v Speaker 1>call it a hump. And if it's not going to

0:22:38.680 --> 0:22:41.600
<v Speaker 1>be whole hump, you can still expect the trading death

0:22:41.760 --> 0:22:45.720
<v Speaker 1>to make a killing and tree. So is this mostly

0:22:45.880 --> 0:22:49.359
<v Speaker 1>about raised eyebrows or is there something more? Is this

0:22:49.440 --> 0:22:52.879
<v Speaker 1>catching the attention of Washington? You quote one member of

0:22:52.920 --> 0:22:56.240
<v Speaker 1>Congress making a comment about it. But is this the

0:22:56.280 --> 0:22:59.680
<v Speaker 1>sort of thing that could catch fire during the campaign

0:22:59.720 --> 0:23:02.840
<v Speaker 1>as specially if Joe Biden continues to gain steam here.

0:23:04.640 --> 0:23:07.680
<v Speaker 1>That's that's that's the unknown here, right, which is you're

0:23:07.720 --> 0:23:10.919
<v Speaker 1>you're going your your hundred and five days away from

0:23:10.960 --> 0:23:15.200
<v Speaker 1>another pivotal election in the United States. When you see

0:23:15.359 --> 0:23:17.959
<v Speaker 1>numbers like this is coming out of World Street, and

0:23:18.000 --> 0:23:21.119
<v Speaker 1>when you see the struggles in on main Street on

0:23:21.200 --> 0:23:26.040
<v Speaker 1>the broader economy, I cannot imagine any politician not wanting

0:23:26.080 --> 0:23:28.840
<v Speaker 1>to jump on the band and go go to the

0:23:28.880 --> 0:23:32.240
<v Speaker 1>match and say, hey, look, this system is fact. This

0:23:32.359 --> 0:23:36.560
<v Speaker 1>system is rigged. It is not helping ordinary people. It

0:23:36.680 --> 0:23:40.760
<v Speaker 1>isn't helping those who are already comfortable. So you have

0:23:41.119 --> 0:23:43.680
<v Speaker 1>it would be a safe bet to think that people

0:23:43.680 --> 0:23:47.480
<v Speaker 1>will capitalize on it and make it a talking point. Yeah,

0:23:47.520 --> 0:23:49.280
<v Speaker 1>I feel like it doesn't help that these guys are

0:23:49.280 --> 0:23:52.600
<v Speaker 1>still considered banks when they really aren't traditional banks. I

0:23:52.640 --> 0:23:54.880
<v Speaker 1>feel like, you know what I mean, because I think

0:23:54.920 --> 0:23:57.480
<v Speaker 1>banks are meant to help more of their communities and

0:23:57.680 --> 0:24:01.640
<v Speaker 1>help but they're but they're really Wall Street and that's

0:24:01.640 --> 0:24:04.240
<v Speaker 1>why they get to play, you know, and volatility helps

0:24:04.240 --> 0:24:07.120
<v Speaker 1>them on the trading desks. It's a great story. Check

0:24:07.160 --> 0:24:09.960
<v Speaker 1>it out that story on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg

0:24:10.040 --> 0:24:12.960
<v Speaker 1>dot com. She Nataraje and financial porter at Bloomberg News,

0:24:13.040 --> 0:24:15.000
<v Speaker 1>jointing us on the phone in New York City. Jill Webber,

0:24:15.440 --> 0:24:18.840
<v Speaker 1>editor Bloomberg Business Week, on the phone from Massachusetts. But

0:24:18.920 --> 0:24:22.600
<v Speaker 1>you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. In his latest Economy

0:24:22.840 --> 0:24:26.040
<v Speaker 1>In his latest column, excuse me, Bloomberg New Economy Editorial

0:24:26.040 --> 0:24:29.479
<v Speaker 1>director Andy Brown points out something that was written recently

0:24:29.480 --> 0:24:32.159
<v Speaker 1>in a Financial Times column. It's about how to be

0:24:32.200 --> 0:24:34.879
<v Speaker 1>in Washington is to sense a nation sliding into open

0:24:35.000 --> 0:24:39.080
<v Speaker 1>ended conflict against China with early little debate. I'm quoting

0:24:39.119 --> 0:24:41.879
<v Speaker 1>from Andy's story. So we've got a few things to

0:24:41.960 --> 0:24:44.520
<v Speaker 1>unpack here. And joining us as he does every week,

0:24:44.560 --> 0:24:48.119
<v Speaker 1>Andy Brown on the phone in New Hampshire. There is

0:24:48.160 --> 0:24:50.040
<v Speaker 1>a lot going on when it and whenever you talk

0:24:50.080 --> 0:24:52.959
<v Speaker 1>about us in China. Tell us, though, Andy, why you

0:24:53.040 --> 0:24:58.720
<v Speaker 1>highlighted UM specifically h this Financial Times column. Yeah, it

0:24:59.080 --> 0:25:04.200
<v Speaker 1>just it just means that UM, both parties and both

0:25:04.359 --> 0:25:08.119
<v Speaker 1>candidates in the election, uh, sort of in the in

0:25:08.160 --> 0:25:11.040
<v Speaker 1>the in the absence of anything that looks like a

0:25:11.240 --> 0:25:15.720
<v Speaker 1>nuanced balanced approach towards China, are just trying to outcompete

0:25:15.800 --> 0:25:19.920
<v Speaker 1>each other on being tough. And you know the latest

0:25:19.960 --> 0:25:23.480
<v Speaker 1>example of this is this idea that the White House

0:25:23.520 --> 0:25:28.160
<v Speaker 1>has floated this trial balloon to ban all ninety million

0:25:28.520 --> 0:25:33.479
<v Speaker 1>members of Communist Party from traveling to the United States

0:25:33.680 --> 0:25:37.200
<v Speaker 1>and their families. So we're talking about you know, three

0:25:37.280 --> 0:25:43.640
<v Speaker 1>hundred million people, potentially quarter of the population of China. UM.

0:25:43.720 --> 0:25:46.840
<v Speaker 1>And you know, in the this kind of this kind

0:25:46.840 --> 0:25:52.120
<v Speaker 1>of escalation UM is really incredibly dangerous. I mean, the

0:25:52.160 --> 0:25:56.160
<v Speaker 1>only impact of a directive like that, were it ever

0:25:56.280 --> 0:25:59.920
<v Speaker 1>to be implemented, would essentially be the halt all interchange

0:26:00.040 --> 0:26:03.080
<v Speaker 1>between the United States and China. I mean, number one,

0:26:03.280 --> 0:26:06.080
<v Speaker 1>it would prevent Ji Jim paying the Chinese president from

0:26:06.080 --> 0:26:09.879
<v Speaker 1>ever traveling to China. You couldn't have trade talks because

0:26:09.880 --> 0:26:13.280
<v Speaker 1>pretty much all of the members the Chinese trade negotiating

0:26:13.320 --> 0:26:16.680
<v Speaker 1>team are also members of the Chinese Communist Party, as

0:26:16.680 --> 0:26:19.800
<v Speaker 1>are many academics UM. And the question is, you know,

0:26:19.880 --> 0:26:22.800
<v Speaker 1>they're the practical questions. I mean, since the Chinese Communist

0:26:22.800 --> 0:26:26.040
<v Speaker 1>body doesn't actually publish a list of its members, it's

0:26:26.080 --> 0:26:28.840
<v Speaker 1>hard to know how how on earth you would implement it.

0:26:29.080 --> 0:26:31.840
<v Speaker 1>I mean it's about as broad and sweeping as sort

0:26:31.840 --> 0:26:34.240
<v Speaker 1>of a ban on all Muslims or something like that,

0:26:34.280 --> 0:26:37.760
<v Speaker 1>which were ideas floated very very early on. And so

0:26:37.800 --> 0:26:40.760
<v Speaker 1>the columnist is sort of saying, look, you know, we

0:26:40.760 --> 0:26:44.280
<v Speaker 1>we need to have an intelligent conversation about where we're

0:26:44.320 --> 0:26:47.359
<v Speaker 1>going in all this. Is this what we really want?

0:26:47.400 --> 0:26:51.440
<v Speaker 1>Do we want an open ended confrontation with China which

0:26:51.480 --> 0:26:54.320
<v Speaker 1>could ultimately lead to war? If that's where we're going,

0:26:54.640 --> 0:26:56.920
<v Speaker 1>that we should have that. We should tell the American

0:26:56.960 --> 0:26:59.000
<v Speaker 1>public what this is going to mean. This is going

0:26:59.080 --> 0:27:03.760
<v Speaker 1>to mean big national you know, uh uh sacrifice, It's

0:27:03.760 --> 0:27:07.119
<v Speaker 1>gonna it's gonna have a massive cost on the economy.

0:27:07.160 --> 0:27:10.919
<v Speaker 1>Are you ready for all this? So? Andy, I do

0:27:11.000 --> 0:27:13.359
<v Speaker 1>want to ask you, because you're so good at giving

0:27:13.400 --> 0:27:18.399
<v Speaker 1>this perspective to us, flip this around. If you're sitting

0:27:18.440 --> 0:27:22.600
<v Speaker 1>in China and as a Chinese national, how are you

0:27:22.680 --> 0:27:26.800
<v Speaker 1>viewing what's going on here at this moment? Well? I

0:27:26.840 --> 0:27:30.600
<v Speaker 1>think what's just what? What The view from Beijing is

0:27:30.760 --> 0:27:34.960
<v Speaker 1>very much that, um, the West is out to uncertainly,

0:27:35.000 --> 0:27:39.119
<v Speaker 1>the United States is out to throttle us. Um Uh,

0:27:39.200 --> 0:27:42.000
<v Speaker 1>They're not interested in engagement anymore. They look at these

0:27:42.040 --> 0:27:48.960
<v Speaker 1>increasingly hostile UM policy initiatives or trial balloons coming out

0:27:48.960 --> 0:27:52.960
<v Speaker 1>of Washington. UM. And they're asking themselves, they're they're hunkering

0:27:53.040 --> 0:27:57.000
<v Speaker 1>down for a long, long term Uh. They think of

0:27:57.040 --> 0:28:00.000
<v Speaker 1>the worst UM Cold war engagement with the United States.

0:28:00.240 --> 0:28:02.760
<v Speaker 1>And you're and basically they're saying, we've got to be

0:28:02.880 --> 0:28:05.680
<v Speaker 1>We've got to be self reliant. Uh. And so you're

0:28:05.720 --> 0:28:10.680
<v Speaker 1>exhilarating precisely the trends which ostensibly you're trying to prevent

0:28:11.280 --> 0:28:14.520
<v Speaker 1>UM I e. You know, if if we're serious about

0:28:14.520 --> 0:28:16.760
<v Speaker 1>doing trade with China, we want to open their markets,

0:28:16.800 --> 0:28:19.800
<v Speaker 1>we want greater engagement, we want we want American businesses

0:28:19.840 --> 0:28:23.840
<v Speaker 1>going over there. We want bankers able to operate freely,

0:28:23.960 --> 0:28:27.240
<v Speaker 1>brokerages and and and so on. And in fact, what

0:28:27.280 --> 0:28:29.640
<v Speaker 1>you're doing is driving the Chinese to a position where

0:28:29.680 --> 0:28:31.800
<v Speaker 1>they say, actually, this isn't what they want. We just

0:28:31.840 --> 0:28:34.280
<v Speaker 1>have to we just have to we just have to

0:28:34.040 --> 0:28:37.840
<v Speaker 1>to go go for autaki. We have to be self reliant.

0:28:38.120 --> 0:28:41.400
<v Speaker 1>This is this is this is essentially economic war. Well

0:28:41.400 --> 0:28:44.360
<v Speaker 1>and what's interesting too, as you write in your column, Andy,

0:28:44.480 --> 0:28:45.840
<v Speaker 1>is you know, voters need to be aware that there

0:28:45.840 --> 0:28:49.680
<v Speaker 1>are alternative approaches to how we interact with China, and

0:28:49.680 --> 0:28:52.560
<v Speaker 1>I think it's an interesting time. I heard somebody over

0:28:52.600 --> 0:28:56.440
<v Speaker 1>the weekend say to meet Romas romans burning and describing

0:28:56.640 --> 0:29:00.240
<v Speaker 1>America specifically, and that you know, we're in cry sis.

0:29:00.440 --> 0:29:03.560
<v Speaker 1>Were preoccupied maybe with some of the wrong things. Meantime,

0:29:03.600 --> 0:29:06.000
<v Speaker 1>the rest of the world is kind of laying out

0:29:06.040 --> 0:29:09.200
<v Speaker 1>their big broad strategies, and I do wonder if the

0:29:09.240 --> 0:29:12.880
<v Speaker 1>American public kind of really understands the gravity of kind

0:29:12.880 --> 0:29:15.560
<v Speaker 1>of what's going on right now as a result of

0:29:15.600 --> 0:29:19.080
<v Speaker 1>the administration. Yeah, I mean, you know, the the the

0:29:19.120 --> 0:29:22.920
<v Speaker 1>alternative approach that you talk about is pretty simple. If

0:29:22.920 --> 0:29:26.320
<v Speaker 1>you can't change Chinese behavior, and I think it's very

0:29:26.400 --> 0:29:29.120
<v Speaker 1>unlikely that you are going to change the drift of

0:29:29.200 --> 0:29:32.840
<v Speaker 1>Chinese industrial policy. Jumping has concluded that a state let

0:29:32.920 --> 0:29:35.680
<v Speaker 1>economy such as the one that he's building now in

0:29:35.800 --> 0:29:40.400
<v Speaker 1>China um is is a necessary political support for the

0:29:40.520 --> 0:29:43.520
<v Speaker 1>Chinese Communist Party. I don't think you're going to change

0:29:43.520 --> 0:29:45.280
<v Speaker 1>that behavior. You do what you can do, which has

0:29:45.360 --> 0:29:48.520
<v Speaker 1>changed your own behavior. So you get back to this.

0:29:49.080 --> 0:29:53.240
<v Speaker 1>You know, America needs a policy of national renewal, investment

0:29:53.280 --> 0:29:58.280
<v Speaker 1>in science and technology, and education and healthcare, all the

0:29:58.360 --> 0:30:02.080
<v Speaker 1>areas that have been a exposed now by this, by

0:30:02.120 --> 0:30:05.680
<v Speaker 1>this coronavirus um. So you know what I'm saying in

0:30:05.680 --> 0:30:08.800
<v Speaker 1>my column is the Chinese look at this, these these

0:30:08.880 --> 0:30:11.880
<v Speaker 1>these threats from the Trump administration. They probably they probably

0:30:11.960 --> 0:30:15.360
<v Speaker 1>dismissed them as as unworkable. They're gonna be looking at,

0:30:15.560 --> 0:30:19.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, Joe Biden's two trillion dollar stimulus and taking

0:30:19.960 --> 0:30:22.560
<v Speaker 1>that more seriously. So my point is, why don't we

0:30:22.600 --> 0:30:26.200
<v Speaker 1>have a competition with China to reinvent the global economy,

0:30:26.280 --> 0:30:29.760
<v Speaker 1>a sustainable global economy. Right, Let's compete with him on

0:30:29.800 --> 0:30:32.760
<v Speaker 1>a green initiative. Let's compete with him on tech to

0:30:32.800 --> 0:30:36.840
<v Speaker 1>create the technologies that will drive innovation, you know, drive

0:30:36.920 --> 0:30:40.080
<v Speaker 1>sustainable growth in the twenty one cent Right. It's great,

0:30:40.960 --> 0:30:43.720
<v Speaker 1>it's a great idea. Um, and everybody should check out

0:30:43.920 --> 0:30:54.120
<v Speaker 1>Andy's Economy Bloomberg, his column Bloomberg New Economy Director Andy Brown, Colonel. Now,

0:30:54.200 --> 0:30:59.200
<v Speaker 1>but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, please,

0:30:59.320 --> 0:31:02.959
<v Speaker 1>I'll do the right drivel. I want to drive all

0:31:05.440 --> 0:31:18.520
<v Speaker 1>just drive, baby, good questions trying. This is the drive

0:31:18.640 --> 0:31:23.600
<v Speaker 1>to the Globe Commune. Thanks, we'll run on Bloomberg Radio.

0:31:24.360 --> 0:31:26.720
<v Speaker 1>All right, let's hit the Drive to the clothes on

0:31:26.920 --> 0:31:32.600
<v Speaker 1>this accelerating day. I feel like of Green Carol's I

0:31:32.600 --> 0:31:35.280
<v Speaker 1>did see very nicely. But it's pretty remarkable right the

0:31:35.280 --> 0:31:38.200
<v Speaker 1>momentum it is. Uh So, who better to talk to

0:31:38.240 --> 0:31:40.760
<v Speaker 1>us about it than j J. Canahan, chief market strategists

0:31:41.040 --> 0:31:43.360
<v Speaker 1>for TV and Merri Trede joining us on the phone.

0:31:43.480 --> 0:31:46.560
<v Speaker 1>J J. How the heck are you? It's been a while. Ah, yeah,

0:31:46.640 --> 0:31:52.920
<v Speaker 1>you're luck ran out. It's so far, so good. How

0:31:52.920 --> 0:31:56.120
<v Speaker 1>about you, guys? Hope everyone's healthy and happy. We're doing okay,

0:31:56.160 --> 0:31:59.680
<v Speaker 1>We're doing okay week nineteen, I think from broadcasting from

0:31:59.680 --> 0:32:02.240
<v Speaker 1>Marver Sspective homes here in New York and New Jersey.

0:32:02.320 --> 0:32:04.800
<v Speaker 1>So it's obviously a different world. I think. I think

0:32:04.840 --> 0:32:07.000
<v Speaker 1>we've talked to you since the pandemic set in, but

0:32:07.200 --> 0:32:09.800
<v Speaker 1>uh it, I don't think anybody expected it would be

0:32:09.840 --> 0:32:12.880
<v Speaker 1>this long. And meanwhile, we've got a market that seems

0:32:12.920 --> 0:32:16.160
<v Speaker 1>to be, by some accounts, kind of defining gravity here,

0:32:16.320 --> 0:32:20.360
<v Speaker 1>especially when it comes to tech stocks. What are you saying, Well,

0:32:20.440 --> 0:32:23.520
<v Speaker 1>it's really amazing. You know you guys talk it, talked

0:32:23.520 --> 0:32:26.840
<v Speaker 1>about it news flash. Just right there. You see Microsoft,

0:32:27.120 --> 0:32:30.720
<v Speaker 1>you see Amazon, And what I really find amazing is

0:32:30.840 --> 0:32:36.520
<v Speaker 1>going into earnings to have h the analysts updates, you know,

0:32:37.680 --> 0:32:40.600
<v Speaker 1>having upgrades on the stocks right before we go into them.

0:32:40.800 --> 0:32:42.960
<v Speaker 1>It's it's it's a risky move on their part. You

0:32:43.040 --> 0:32:46.880
<v Speaker 1>normally don't see that. But what then concerns me is,

0:32:47.160 --> 0:32:50.720
<v Speaker 1>even if these are amazing earnings, which obviously everyone expects

0:32:50.760 --> 0:32:55.400
<v Speaker 1>them to be, can that sort of carry the day

0:32:55.560 --> 0:32:57.880
<v Speaker 1>after earnings or is it going to be a sort

0:32:57.880 --> 0:33:01.280
<v Speaker 1>of by the rumor sell the news because the expectations

0:33:01.320 --> 0:33:05.600
<v Speaker 1>are so high heading into these tech earnings After banks

0:33:05.600 --> 0:33:07.960
<v Speaker 1>did okay but kind of did what we expected, and

0:33:08.000 --> 0:33:11.160
<v Speaker 1>that trading revenues were good and everything else. Uh, you know,

0:33:11.320 --> 0:33:13.600
<v Speaker 1>when your net interest margin gets squeezed, it was just

0:33:13.720 --> 0:33:16.720
<v Speaker 1>so so well, what would you do if they're disappointing?

0:33:17.000 --> 0:33:19.800
<v Speaker 1>Considering the run up, especially some of those big check names.

0:33:20.760 --> 0:33:22.880
<v Speaker 1>I think it really changes the momentum, Carroll, to be

0:33:22.920 --> 0:33:25.840
<v Speaker 1>honest with you, um, you know right now, even though

0:33:26.840 --> 0:33:29.959
<v Speaker 1>as we just got untalked about being to stay at home, trade, etcetera.

0:33:30.400 --> 0:33:34.160
<v Speaker 1>The I think we have sort of positive momentum that

0:33:34.280 --> 0:33:36.240
<v Speaker 1>at some point here will come out of it. Things

0:33:36.280 --> 0:33:38.720
<v Speaker 1>will resume. I don't want to say as they were,

0:33:38.840 --> 0:33:40.800
<v Speaker 1>because I don't think they're ever going to be exactly

0:33:40.840 --> 0:33:44.320
<v Speaker 1>as they were, but in a good way or better way.

0:33:44.960 --> 0:33:48.920
<v Speaker 1>With that said, if these stocks which we're all relying

0:33:48.960 --> 0:33:51.080
<v Speaker 1>on to be the leaders, and to their credit they

0:33:51.120 --> 0:33:55.920
<v Speaker 1>have been, don't meet these expectations, you know, it gives

0:33:55.960 --> 0:33:58.480
<v Speaker 1>you a little bit of a head scratcher. It's in

0:33:58.840 --> 0:34:02.200
<v Speaker 1>a weird way. It's like the technology and the mature

0:34:02.320 --> 0:34:05.360
<v Speaker 1>technology stocks have become a little bit of the safety

0:34:05.400 --> 0:34:09.480
<v Speaker 1>play during this whole time. Why is that, Well, is

0:34:09.480 --> 0:34:12.000
<v Speaker 1>it just because they're not so kind of? I mean,

0:34:12.000 --> 0:34:18.520
<v Speaker 1>they have become such a part of our our lives personally, professionally, absolutely,

0:34:18.640 --> 0:34:20.799
<v Speaker 1>And you know when you see these analysts talking about

0:34:20.800 --> 0:34:25.280
<v Speaker 1>the fact that like Microsoft or from Platform I'm sorry,

0:34:25.520 --> 0:34:31.120
<v Speaker 1>had to uh exponentially start performing and all of a sudden,

0:34:31.160 --> 0:34:34.880
<v Speaker 1>twelve months of development cycles came flying to really quickly,

0:34:35.000 --> 0:34:38.879
<v Speaker 1>and with that they didn't have many problems. I think

0:34:38.880 --> 0:34:42.400
<v Speaker 1>that that really gives people some excitement as to the

0:34:42.480 --> 0:34:45.879
<v Speaker 1>opportunity there and how quickly other things that really sort

0:34:45.880 --> 0:34:49.719
<v Speaker 1>of change our lives, if you will, can come up.

0:34:50.000 --> 0:34:52.400
<v Speaker 1>The other thing is, and we can't forget about the

0:34:52.400 --> 0:34:55.040
<v Speaker 1>fact that you have a sixty two basis point ten

0:34:55.120 --> 0:34:58.120
<v Speaker 1>year yield and it just doesn't excite anybody. So I

0:34:58.120 --> 0:35:00.640
<v Speaker 1>think people are also saying, Okay, if I'm heading to

0:35:00.640 --> 0:35:03.160
<v Speaker 1>retimement or whatever it may be, do I want to

0:35:03.200 --> 0:35:04.839
<v Speaker 1>put a lot of money there, or do I want

0:35:04.840 --> 0:35:08.720
<v Speaker 1>to try and get capital appreciation from stocks? I trust,

0:35:09.120 --> 0:35:12.879
<v Speaker 1>you know, some have yields, some don't, but overall they've

0:35:12.920 --> 0:35:16.640
<v Speaker 1>been solid and that capital appreciation has certainly been much

0:35:16.680 --> 0:35:20.719
<v Speaker 1>better than the youth play. Right now, I still am

0:35:20.880 --> 0:35:23.440
<v Speaker 1>sort of puzzled that and maybe I shouldn't be j

0:35:23.640 --> 0:35:28.560
<v Speaker 1>j around all things transport here, um, you know, especially

0:35:28.600 --> 0:35:31.520
<v Speaker 1>as we're talking about business travel Carroll, you know, just

0:35:32.120 --> 0:35:35.080
<v Speaker 1>basically never coming back to the levels that it was

0:35:35.480 --> 0:35:39.520
<v Speaker 1>as an investor, How should we be thinking about either

0:35:39.560 --> 0:35:42.640
<v Speaker 1>the big airline names or even more broadly the hospitality

0:35:42.680 --> 0:35:46.560
<v Speaker 1>and travel business. Yeah, you know, it's interesting our our

0:35:46.560 --> 0:35:49.600
<v Speaker 1>clients really took to them in March and April. I

0:35:49.600 --> 0:35:52.640
<v Speaker 1>think last time we talked because there was sort of

0:35:52.680 --> 0:35:56.319
<v Speaker 1>a government's you know, uh nettings there if you will

0:35:56.400 --> 0:36:00.200
<v Speaker 1>or deck stop. Now that they've they've rarely debate and

0:36:00.440 --> 0:36:03.960
<v Speaker 1>haven't really perhaps had to take up to the level

0:36:04.400 --> 0:36:07.160
<v Speaker 1>maybe we thought they would, you know, particularly with what

0:36:07.200 --> 0:36:10.279
<v Speaker 1>we've heard out of United in American recently. I think

0:36:10.320 --> 0:36:13.560
<v Speaker 1>that this is a little bit of a riskier investment

0:36:13.640 --> 0:36:17.759
<v Speaker 1>at this point. And as we see you know, some

0:36:17.840 --> 0:36:21.839
<v Speaker 1>restrictions being loosened then put back, Uh, you know, you're

0:36:21.880 --> 0:36:24.520
<v Speaker 1>really betting on a recovery. What I would say is,

0:36:24.560 --> 0:36:27.399
<v Speaker 1>if you're if you're investing there right now, I would

0:36:27.480 --> 0:36:30.160
<v Speaker 1>really think about a longer time frame. A lot of

0:36:30.160 --> 0:36:33.239
<v Speaker 1>this investment depends upon what's your time frame. If you're

0:36:33.280 --> 0:36:35.920
<v Speaker 1>doing it for a quick hit, you're taking quite a risk.

0:36:36.200 --> 0:36:38.479
<v Speaker 1>If you're saying, you know what, I think in two

0:36:38.600 --> 0:36:41.560
<v Speaker 1>three years will be back to a level where you know,

0:36:41.640 --> 0:36:45.840
<v Speaker 1>even international business travel was going again, then that investment

0:36:45.920 --> 0:36:48.360
<v Speaker 1>makes more sense to me. And I think too often

0:36:48.480 --> 0:36:52.160
<v Speaker 1>retail traders don't take their time frames that they say

0:36:52.160 --> 0:36:55.200
<v Speaker 1>it's a long term investment without defining that for short

0:36:55.239 --> 0:36:57.880
<v Speaker 1>from I think, and particularly now, you have to define

0:36:57.880 --> 0:37:00.880
<v Speaker 1>that more than ever still when it comes to some

0:37:01.000 --> 0:37:04.439
<v Speaker 1>of these specific names, um, whether it's a Netflix, whether

0:37:04.440 --> 0:37:07.279
<v Speaker 1>it's a Microsoft, whether it's Tesla. Are there any though

0:37:07.320 --> 0:37:10.120
<v Speaker 1>that really stand out for you that you think should

0:37:10.120 --> 0:37:12.520
<v Speaker 1>be kind of part of an investor's portfolio at this point?

0:37:12.600 --> 0:37:15.759
<v Speaker 1>J J. Well, I do think Microsoft is one that

0:37:15.840 --> 0:37:18.640
<v Speaker 1>you could probably trust, uh if you will, because it's

0:37:18.640 --> 0:37:21.360
<v Speaker 1>a more mature company, and I think that that's what

0:37:21.440 --> 0:37:24.640
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing out of our clients, etcetera. Is that with

0:37:24.760 --> 0:37:28.239
<v Speaker 1>that it's it's a company that you're like, Okay, you

0:37:28.280 --> 0:37:30.520
<v Speaker 1>know this makes sense when it comes to a stock

0:37:30.600 --> 0:37:33.600
<v Speaker 1>like Tesla. Not to woo hoo it, but you know,

0:37:33.920 --> 0:37:35.919
<v Speaker 1>I like to look at the options market a lot,

0:37:35.920 --> 0:37:38.359
<v Speaker 1>even if you don't trade options. They give you an

0:37:38.480 --> 0:37:41.279
<v Speaker 1>idea of what people are pricing in. If you look

0:37:41.320 --> 0:37:44.160
<v Speaker 1>at Tesla and if you're going to hold it for

0:37:44.200 --> 0:37:47.360
<v Speaker 1>thirty two calendar days, the implied move right now is

0:37:47.480 --> 0:37:50.879
<v Speaker 1>almost four hundred and eighty dollars. So when I asked people,

0:37:50.880 --> 0:37:53.600
<v Speaker 1>if you're gonna buy Tesla, do you have the stomach

0:37:53.920 --> 0:37:56.400
<v Speaker 1>forward to move? An expected move could be four d

0:37:56.560 --> 0:37:59.359
<v Speaker 1>eight dollars against you as well as for you. Do

0:37:59.440 --> 0:38:01.520
<v Speaker 1>you have the look for that? And I don't think

0:38:01.520 --> 0:38:03.520
<v Speaker 1>people consider that enough when they go with these types

0:38:03.560 --> 0:38:05.560
<v Speaker 1>of the US I'll take that as a no. That

0:38:05.600 --> 0:38:10.319
<v Speaker 1>should not be a standard in your portfolio. It's might

0:38:10.400 --> 0:38:15.120
<v Speaker 1>be a little bit about j. J. Kennah had great

0:38:15.160 --> 0:38:16.600
<v Speaker 1>to spend some time with you. Thank you so much,

0:38:16.640 --> 0:38:18.840
<v Speaker 1>Chief Market strategies for TD. Merrig Tree joining us on

0:38:18.840 --> 0:38:23.240
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Chicago. Love when he gets specific and uh,

0:38:23.280 --> 0:38:25.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, just talks about some of both the trends

0:38:25.360 --> 0:38:29.160
<v Speaker 1>but also some of the individual names that we all

0:38:29.200 --> 0:38:30.880
<v Speaker 1>think about all the time. We talk about them all

0:38:30.920 --> 0:38:33.160
<v Speaker 1>the time on this show, Carol. Yeah, totally, you know.

0:38:33.320 --> 0:38:36.000
<v Speaker 1>And not all tech should be necessarily grouped together, right,

0:38:36.120 --> 0:38:38.520
<v Speaker 1>not all tech company are the same, I think, you know.

0:38:38.600 --> 0:38:40.880
<v Speaker 1>So it's it's a good way, especially when he says,

0:38:40.920 --> 0:38:43.000
<v Speaker 1>like look at the options market. That gives you a

0:38:43.000 --> 0:38:45.520
<v Speaker 1>really good indication of what investors are thinking. Thanks so

0:38:45.600 --> 0:38:48.200
<v Speaker 1>much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast

0:38:48.200 --> 0:38:51.120
<v Speaker 1>on iTunes, Southcloud, Bloomberg dot com, but wherever you get

0:38:51.120 --> 0:38:53.200
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0:38:53.239 --> 0:38:55.879
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0:38:56.040 --> 0:38:59.000
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