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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go spreading the court.

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Speaker 3: Ten seconds of maining, so just go show under the basket,

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Speaker 3: Under the basket, it's the truth for the wind.

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Speaker 2: God make a miracle.

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Speaker 3: I'm just up the water.

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Speaker 2: Hit that one from the parking lot. What's up the

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Speaker 2: general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast

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Speaker 2: presented by Bett MNGM. This is the Thursday College Basketball

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Speaker 2: NCAA Tournament betting preview. I'm stuck in joining me for

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Speaker 2: today's episode of my fellow BBOC co hosts Mike Randall

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Speaker 2: and Mike Calabrese, The Mike and Mike Show. We will

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Speaker 2: get to I guess fourteen of the sixteen games on Thursday.

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Speaker 2: We don't know two of the matchups. We don't know

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Speaker 2: who's gonna play Texas, and we don't know who's gonna

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Speaker 2: play UNC. Who really cares about that game, But we

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Speaker 2: will cover all other, every single other game on Thursday Slate.

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Speaker 2: We will go in chronological order. The Madness is almost official.

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Speaker 2: Year of recording. This before the first four tips off

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Speaker 2: between Wagner and Howard. It's not quite the Christmas morning

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Speaker 2: feeling that's always Thursday finishing up your contest brackets, getting

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Speaker 2: your final bets in, watching the clock until twelve oh

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Speaker 2: seven strikes, and then were often running no better feeling.

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Speaker 2: Can you feel it in the air, Randall, what's going on? Brother?

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Speaker 3: What's going on? Nothing better than this? We're in overdrive

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Speaker 3: for the last week conference tournaments, futures. What's better than this?

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Speaker 2: Can't wait?

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Speaker 3: And I get excited. Always have a glass of champagne

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Speaker 3: when things kick off here, great matchup, Howard Wagger, nothing better,

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Speaker 3: Let's do it.

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Speaker 1: Calbary's I'm right there with you, guys. I've been doing

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Speaker 1: so much content here in New York City at HQ

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Speaker 1: for the Action Network, just wrapped our Cinderella drafts, so

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Speaker 1: talking ourselves into a lot of upsets happening. Hopefully that's true.

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Speaker 1: I think this is the time when I'm most excited,

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Speaker 1: and then, like the last thirty six hours, I try

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Speaker 1: not to get in that headspace where I'm talking myself

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Speaker 1: in and out of a certain matchups, like have some conviction,

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Speaker 1: lock it in, do your homework. But after that, you

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Speaker 1: just got to sit back and enjoy the games.

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Speaker 2: Yep, and just understand, like we can we spend all

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Speaker 2: week Handy capping these games, and we're going to try

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Speaker 2: to find the you know, small edges and matchups that matter.

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Speaker 2: But a lot of times they might just come down

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Speaker 2: to three point variants and fouls at the end, and

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Speaker 2: you're gonna lose some times like that, and guess what,

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Speaker 2: Just dust yourself off and it's on to the next game.

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Speaker 2: Games all day long. Don't get yourself hurt by chasing

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Speaker 2: or going on till it's college basketball. There's gonna be

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Speaker 2: bad beats, there's gonna be bad three point variants, just

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Speaker 2: the way the cookie crumbles. But let's get in to

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Speaker 2: the games. As I mentioned previously, we will go chronologically,

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Speaker 2: So let's kick things off with Michigan State Mississippi State,

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Speaker 2: which will tip off at twelve fifteen Eastern on CBS.

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Speaker 2: I swear it used to be twelve oh seven, like

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Speaker 2: way back in the day. Am I crazy? No?

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Speaker 1: I think that sounds right. It's like twelve ten like

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Speaker 1: that they cut into the live feed like in that

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Speaker 1: twelve oh five range. Yeah, I think you're right.

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Speaker 2: We're moving everything back to get more commercials. It's like

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Speaker 2: the big noon kickoff on Fox. It's not big. It's

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Speaker 2: not Big noon kickoff. It's big twelve to fifteen kickoff

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Speaker 2: on Fox. Those games never started noon either, anyway, I

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Speaker 2: digress Michigan State is a one and a half point

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Speaker 2: favorite here in the eight to nine matchup total ticked

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Speaker 2: up a bit, sitting at one thirty and a half.

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Speaker 2: Good guard matchup here between Hubbard and Walker. You also

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Speaker 2: have to worry about Tolu Smith in the middle of

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Speaker 2: Mississippi State's packed in defense protecting the rim. There's all

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Speaker 2: the questions about Sparti and who they're gonna have at

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Speaker 2: the five. Right off the bat, I will tell you

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Speaker 2: I don't have a really strong conviction on this game yet.

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Speaker 2: This is a game I went through every single game

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Speaker 2: in depth, and then I went through them again, and

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Speaker 2: then I went through potential future matchups, and then I

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Speaker 2: doing that, I circled a bunch of games, all right,

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Speaker 2: I gotta go deeper into these, and this was one

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Speaker 2: of them because and the main reason I want to

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Speaker 2: get this game right, or try to, even if I

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Speaker 2: don't end up betting it is North Carolina is an

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Speaker 2: extremely vulnerable number one seed, and I may have them

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Speaker 2: going down in the second round. But I'm conflicted on

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Speaker 2: the eight nine matchups So that's always the dilemma because

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Speaker 2: if you get the eight nine matchup wrong, who cares

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Speaker 2: if you picked Carolina to go down because you don't

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Speaker 2: have the correct eight or nine advancing So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think this is a pretty interesting matchup to pretty evenly

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Speaker 2: matched teams. And as I mentioned, the next anticipated matchup

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Speaker 2: against North Carolina, the line would be like three and

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Speaker 2: a half four, four and a half. It's not gonna

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Speaker 2: be crazy. Randal. Let me go to you. And this

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Speaker 2: Michigan State team has been, you know, highly ranked analytically

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Speaker 2: all year. They're eighteenth in ken Pom, twelve spots ahead

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Speaker 2: of Mississippi's State, even though they close the year losing

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Speaker 2: five of seven, with their only wins coming over a

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Speaker 2: banged up Northwestern team, and they didn't look great in

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Speaker 2: that game and their home finale and then a fading

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Speaker 2: Minnesota team to kick off the Big Ten Tournament. What

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Speaker 2: do you see here? Do you see anything noteworthy?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I like Mississippi State. I think they're gonna win

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Speaker 3: the game. They are sharpens iron, sharpens iron in the

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Speaker 3: SEC and that's what Mississippi State has done. Look, their

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Speaker 3: three point defense is superior. They're super great on the boards,

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Speaker 3: aggressive inside. Not a tremendously tall team, but certainly aggressive

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Speaker 3: enough to battle Michigan State, who's been salt in the

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Speaker 3: interior all year long. They've been looking for a reliable

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Speaker 3: post presence and they can't find it. Their offense is

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Speaker 3: very up and down. They're limping in as well as

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Speaker 3: Mississippi State. Now, Mississippi State doesn't make free throws, that's

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Speaker 3: their thing. However, they've also had some horrific free throw

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Speaker 3: luck against them, team shooting seventy eight percent against them

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Speaker 3: from the free throw line. They crushed Tennessee and they

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Speaker 3: battled Auburn, giving them a pretty tough game in the

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Speaker 3: semi finals of the SEC Tournament. I am taking Mississippi State.

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Speaker 3: I'm also taking them sucking. I think they match up

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Speaker 3: well against North Carolina in the next round. I like

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Speaker 3: Chris Jans, like his in game adjustments. Don't trust Izzo

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Speaker 3: right now. He's been trying to get an identity for

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Speaker 3: this team. Hasn't been able to find. If they hit

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Speaker 3: some good three point variants in the middle of the year,

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Speaker 3: then they limped all the way in. I think the athletes,

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Speaker 3: I think Hubbard. Everything points to Mississippi State. Give me

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Speaker 3: a couple threes from the outside that go in, I

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Speaker 3: think they can pull away easily. Here I have the

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Speaker 3: Bulldogs winning this game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Two defenses that do allow a high frequency of

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Speaker 2: three pointers. Will see who can knock them down in

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Speaker 2: the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina, in neutral on

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Speaker 2: a neutral court in a foreign venue. The one thing

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Speaker 2: that does concerned me about Mississippi State to play Devil's Advocate,

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Speaker 2: which might end up being the difference. Wrote about this

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Speaker 2: in a couple of my pieces that are out on

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Speaker 2: Actionnework dot Com and the Action Nework Gap. The turnover

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Speaker 2: issues for Mississippi State. They have one of the highest

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Speaker 2: turnover rates among all teams in the field. They were

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Speaker 2: at two hundred and ninetieth nationally turnar ball over eighteen

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Speaker 2: point seven percent of their possessions, which was the same

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Speaker 2: mark in SEC play, and Michigan State top seventy five

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Speaker 2: enforcing turnovers, and they take care of the ball. So

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Speaker 2: I am a bit concerned about just Michigan State number

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Speaker 2: one maybe getting some easy buckets in transition, although they're

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Speaker 2: not a team that really looks to run much. These

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Speaker 2: are two fairly slow paced teams, but just getting you know,

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Speaker 2: with those turnovers, Michigan State having a few more possessions

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Speaker 2: that might end up being the difference. But I think

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Speaker 2: Totlu Smith is going to have a big game, big

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Speaker 2: impact on both ends of the floor. But this ultimately

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Speaker 2: just could come down to, Okay, who's cooking more? Is

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Speaker 2: it Tyson Walker or Josh Hoabard Caybrey's any one sent

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Speaker 2: in quick thought on this matchup or what you're doing

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Speaker 2: in your bracket or with Carolina, anything you want to

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Speaker 2: add here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I love the way that you framed it. I

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Speaker 1: think North Carolina is super vulnerable. I want to make

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Speaker 1: sure that I'm holding the right team to face them

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Speaker 1: because I'm probably gonna put them into my Sweet sixteen.

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Speaker 1: But I just don't know who that team is, like

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Speaker 1: I see is though I know the track record, I

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Speaker 1: know what he's been able to accomplish, particularly against vulnerable

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Speaker 1: teams in that round of thirty two. But you laid

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Speaker 1: it out in terms of how they played down the

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Speaker 1: stretch in the Big Ten not inspiring. And Missippi State

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Speaker 1: if they had just made instead of missing ten foul shots,

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Speaker 1: if they had cut that number in half, it's probably

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Speaker 1: one possession game against Alburns. So they're just stacking incredible performances,

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Speaker 1: knocking off ten see going away, and then hanging with

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Speaker 1: an Auburn team that only turned them over eleven times.

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Speaker 1: So like that's really been their bugaboo, is turning the

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Speaker 1: ball over. Being able to handle the on ball pressure

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Speaker 1: and the boundless energy from an Auburn team that was

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Speaker 1: essentially playing in, you know, a home court advantage to

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Speaker 1: the North up in Nashville is incredible. How many fans

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Speaker 1: they had come with them. I was impressed by that,

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Speaker 1: So I guess at this point I lean Mississippi State.

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Speaker 1: But it's really a coin flip, all right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, tough game to call, which is not unexpected with

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Speaker 2: a spread sitting right around one. Let's move on to

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Speaker 2: the second game on Thursday, and let's talk about a

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Speaker 2: team that got a very bizarre seed line in Ducane

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Speaker 2: with an eleven seed the same as New Mexico. I think,

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure, pretty lazy job by the committee there,

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Speaker 2: who I think just had that spot open no matter

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Speaker 2: what we talked about that previously this week. But Ducaine

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Speaker 2: will face BYU, who dropped from a five to a

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Speaker 2: six due to a procedure. So they don't have to

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Speaker 2: play on Sundays, and I think that they kind of

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Speaker 2: benefited by dropping from the five to the sixth. They're

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Speaker 2: nine and a half point favorite here. This game tips

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Speaker 2: off at twelve forty eastern on True TV. Total has

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Speaker 2: ticked up a bit one forty two and a half.

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Speaker 2: First thing that jumps out to me when I look

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Speaker 2: at this game is Dukine does have a very good

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Speaker 2: defense veright top thirty and adjusted overall efficiency. Going up

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Speaker 2: against an elite BYU offense at ranks eleventh in that department,

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Speaker 2: Dukine will get up into heavy pressure, pressure the ball,

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Speaker 2: force turnovers they do. You know, on the season, they

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Speaker 2: have pressed at a fairly decently high clip around fifteen percent,

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Speaker 2: but they have a bad and that of late curious

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Speaker 2: to see if they do bring it back BYU does

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Speaker 2: take care of the ball well, but they have some

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Speaker 2: curious splits against the press this year. They were horrendous

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Speaker 2: against NC States press and against UCF in the first meeting,

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Speaker 2: but they absolutely carved up the Knights press in their

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Speaker 2: final two meetings, including one in the conference tournament. So

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Speaker 2: the question here becomes what wins out the elite BYU

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Speaker 2: offense or the Ducaine very good and underrated defense. I

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Speaker 2: will say a couple of things that do stand out

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Speaker 2: to me are the rebounding should be heavily in BYU's favor.

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Speaker 2: In addition to they're just their overall size. Ducaine is

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Speaker 2: a smaller team BYU very versatile offense. I think that

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Speaker 2: they might be able to just get what they want

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Speaker 2: in the paint. You can go with like Khalifaz that

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Speaker 2: point forward out top, or you know, you can go

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Speaker 2: with a you know, Trey Ora and just use him

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Speaker 2: on the block and then set up all their shooters.

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Speaker 2: And they just run such good offense. Whereas Ducaine, they

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Speaker 2: they're a hard team to predict what they're going to

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Speaker 2: do offensively because they are so reliant on Clark and Grant.

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Speaker 2: Jimmy Clark and day de Grant just taking and trying

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Speaker 2: to make tough shots which can lead to extended droughts.

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Speaker 2: Caliberies will throw it to you for this one BYU

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Speaker 2: nine and a half point favorite. What do you see here?

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Speaker 1: Lay the points? Ducaine has no business whatsoever being an

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Speaker 1: eleven seed. You mentioned it off the top, even though

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Speaker 1: they slide down from a five to six. Huge beneficiary here.

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Speaker 1: I just see prolonged drafts. For the Dukes, they're outside

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Speaker 1: the top two hundred shooting efficiency, two point field goal percentage,

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Speaker 1: how they shoot from the line, also outside of the

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Speaker 1: top two hundred. Very weak on the glass. I think

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Speaker 1: that's where this game could swing. And when you look

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Speaker 1: at BYU, they have lots of different answers. Offensively, they

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Speaker 1: bomb away from three. They take over thirty two threes

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Speaker 1: per game. That's first in the country, so you get

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Speaker 1: the opportunity to maybe run the Dukes off the court

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Speaker 1: if they hit five or six triples in the first half.

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Speaker 1: But they also use ball screens in zoom action as

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Speaker 1: well as any team in the country. It's a beautiful

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Speaker 1: offense to watch, and they figured out some really, really

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Speaker 1: good defenses this year. I don't want to totally dump

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Speaker 1: on the Dukes. That's the first time in the tournament

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Speaker 1: in forty seven years, so congratulations for making it back.

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Speaker 1: You do play very good team defense. But when you

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Speaker 1: look at what BYU is up against in the Big Twelve,

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Speaker 1: they faced five top twenty Ken Pom defenses. They found

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Speaker 1: a way to score eighty seven against Iowa State and UCF.

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Speaker 1: That's really impressive. They hung around with Houston in a

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Speaker 1: lower score game. It was tied with about a minute ago.

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Speaker 1: So I just think that they are classes above Ducane

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Speaker 1: in this matchup, and I agree with you. I think

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Speaker 1: the committee was just like, whoever wins between VCU and

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Speaker 1: Ducane gets the eleven seed. I think they're misseeded by

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Speaker 1: two to three lines. I think it's that significant, so

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Speaker 1: I'll go ahead and lay the points. I think BYU

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Speaker 1: wins going away, all.

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Speaker 2: Right, Moving on to the third game of the day,

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Speaker 2: one thirty eastern on TNT. This is the first game

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Speaker 2: of the tournament, the real tournament that I am the

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Speaker 2: most excited for, and that is Akron Crayton in a

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Speaker 2: three fourteen matchup. Crayton is a twelve and a half

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Speaker 2: point favored here total one forty two. This game will

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Speaker 2: be played in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Come on, Zips fans, not

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Speaker 2: a long trip, get down support Achron. I love the

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Speaker 2: Zips here catching twelve and a half against Creighton. I

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Speaker 2: will say that Breaton shoots a lot of threes and

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Speaker 2: they're very capable, so if they're red hot, there might

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Speaker 2: might not be anything that Akron can do. But I

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Speaker 2: think that there's a path here for the Zips, who

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Speaker 2: are coached by John Gross, who's seven to one against

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Speaker 2: the spread in his career in the NCAA Tournament. I

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Speaker 2: think that they can slow this game down to a halt.

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Speaker 2: They're not as slow as they were two years ago,

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Speaker 2: but they're still pretty slow, and I think that they

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Speaker 2: will come into this game and try and play very slow.

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Speaker 2: And Creighton is pretty methodical, so I think this will

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Speaker 2: be a half court battle. And the team that I

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Speaker 2: just mentioned of Akron two years ago, they gave UCLA,

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Speaker 2: who was I think a four seed when Akron was

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Speaker 2: a thirteen, they gave him a scare and not. The

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Speaker 2: final score of that game was fifty seven to fifty three.

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Speaker 2: And there are a number of starters from that team

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Speaker 2: that are on this team. An extremely experienced Achron roster.

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Speaker 2: You have, you know, Enrique Freeman, who they work a

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Speaker 2: ton through in the post, which probably isn't going to

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Speaker 2: work against Kaalkbrenner. But here's what I do like about

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Speaker 2: Akron on the offense, he've the end of the floor.

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Speaker 2: They have a number They're very good in the mid range,

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Speaker 2: and that's what you need to do against the Caulk

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Speaker 2: drop Creyton really takes away the three by design, and

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Speaker 2: you can't really get much at the rim against Kalkbrenner,

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Speaker 2: so they invite mid range opportunities. Well, Akron has a

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Speaker 2: number of guys Ali Ali Freeman, and they even have

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Speaker 2: a five a five man who can step out and

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Speaker 2: shoot the three, which could give Kalkbrenner some problems. Zips

294
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Speaker 2: are also overdue for some positive shooting regression twenty eight

295
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Speaker 2: point eight percent since February first. They were thirty four

296
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Speaker 2: point four percent before February first, and they shoot it

297
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Speaker 2: at a pretty high volume, so I think that there's

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Speaker 2: some past success here and they're out of conference results

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Speaker 2: if you want. Like some comps, they had a pretty

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Speaker 2: strong non conference overall schedule. They won by six at

301
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Speaker 2: South Dakota State. They lost by three on the neutral

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Speaker 2: to Utah State. They did lose by twenty to neutral

303
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Speaker 2: against Drake, but they beat Bradley by fifteen. They lost

304
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Speaker 2: by two at UNLV. They lost by one on the

305
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Speaker 2: neutral versus Saint Bonnie's not bad, especially when you consider

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Speaker 2: Ali Eli didn't play in those games. He averages sixteen

307
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Speaker 2: points per game, so you know, Craigon doesn't have any

308
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Speaker 2: bad losses. But they got blown out in the neutral

309
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Speaker 2: quart against Colorado State, they got blown out on the

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Speaker 2: semi road game against UNLV. So I like Akrom the

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Speaker 2: just ugly this game up and keep this relatively close.

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Speaker 2: And if you're looking for an upset, in fifteen of

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Speaker 2: the past sixteen NCAA tournaments, there's been at least one

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Speaker 2: thirteen or lower seed that has won a first round game.

315
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Speaker 2: So if you're looking for one that not many people

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Speaker 2: will have, I think this is a good one to

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Speaker 2: target because I think Akron has a decent, decent shot here,

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Speaker 2: especially if the threes are falling, and especially if Creyton

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Speaker 2: isn't red hot from deep. There's a path. They have

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Speaker 2: the mid range. They have some guards who can get

321
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Speaker 2: hot from three triple can just get go off and

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Speaker 2: get hot at any given notice. There's some positive aggression looming.

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Speaker 2: I like Achron here. I'm trusting Gross to slow this up,

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Speaker 2: and it's not like Creighton is trying to speed up

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Speaker 2: the game. And you know, one final note, the you

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Speaker 2: know what the what Akron doesn't do if you look

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Speaker 2: is that they don't they're not really a rimmer line offense.

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Speaker 2: They don't try to live on the offensive glass, they

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Speaker 2: don't really force turnovers, and they're not looking to get

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Speaker 2: out in the transition. Well that's okay, it gets crazy.

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Speaker 2: You can't do any of those things against Create. So

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Speaker 2: I think this is a decent matchup. Randall, you agree,

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Speaker 2: I totally agree.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned Akron's non conference right to schedule fifteen ninth

335
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 3: did an excellent job. Grosser's run twenty two more games

336
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,199
Speaker 3: each of the last three years, and they have the

337
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 3: perfect combination Stuck. They guard the arc, limit opponents thirty

338
00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,720
Speaker 3: one percent from three point range, and Freeman inside can

339
00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:21,680
Speaker 3: do some things against Kulkburner. I went to the Big

340
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:25,679
Speaker 3: East Tournament and the time Creighton made their run against Providence,

341
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Speaker 3: they started attacking the interior because a duo was out

342
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,879
Speaker 3: and Trey Alexander was getting to the basket. They just

343
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Speaker 3: don't do that on a regular basis. They will drive

344
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Speaker 3: to the basket to fire the ball back out for

345
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Speaker 3: a deep logo three from someone that's just their game.

346
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Speaker 3: Kulkburner's post moves have not developed enough. Like Enrique Freeman,

347
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Speaker 3: love gross love the points here. I hated Creighton all

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Speaker 3: year long. Only time they've burned me Stuck is at

349
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Speaker 3: home against Yukon when Steven Ashworth is hitting shots from

350
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Speaker 3: the logo. This is on a neutral site. I don't

351
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Speaker 3: think it's gonna happen. They get to the basket, they

352
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:01,160
Speaker 3: always pump fake the things. Rose is going to pick

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Speaker 3: up on Akron with the points for me and I

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Speaker 3: do not mind the money line play. I agree. I

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Speaker 3: think this is the matchup we wanted because you and

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Speaker 3: I both didn't like Creighton, and I think we got it.

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Speaker 3: I'm looking forward to it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Akron, for what it's worth, they will allow a

359
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 2: let me see, they're exact right. They do allow a

360
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:25,239
Speaker 2: decent amount of three point looks, but they are their

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Speaker 2: opponents only shot thirty percent from deep, which is thirteenth

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Speaker 2: in the country, and pers synergy they grate out in

363
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 2: the ninety ninth percentile in jump shot defense, so they

364
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 2: will certainly get out on shooters and contest. And I

365
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 2: think there's past the offense here for Ackron. I like

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Speaker 2: the Zips. You ever wanted to try the best version

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368
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370
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371
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377
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384
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Speaker 2: Let's move on to the fourth game of the day,

385
00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 2: and we have Arizon taking on Long Beach State at

386
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 2: Too Eastern on TBS. Arizona will try to avoid happening.

387
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Speaker 2: Avoid what happened last year when they went down as

388
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,200
Speaker 2: a two seed in the first round to Princeton. They

389
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Speaker 2: are a twenty and a half point favored here against

390
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Speaker 2: Long Beach State. This game will be played in altitude

391
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Speaker 2: in Salt Lake City. I I don't like, I can't

392
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:37,120
Speaker 2: make a case for Long Beach State here. You know,

393
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Speaker 2: they're gonna they're gonna pressure the ball. Maybe they can

394
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Speaker 2: turn Arizona over. Maybe Caleb Love shoots Arizona, you know,

395
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 2: tries to shoot Arizona out of the game. The problem

396
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 2: is Long Beach State wants to play fast, and that's

397
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 2: not ideal against Arizona. It's not ideal as a big

398
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 2: underdog a supremely talented team anyway, but especially Arizona. Long

399
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 2: Beach also has a really bad transition defense, and Arizona

400
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 2: is a transition juggernaut eighty six percentile in transition frequency,

401
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:18,399
Speaker 2: eighty fifth inefficiency in those possessions, and Long Beach camp

402
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 2: and doesn't really shoot the three. They're three hundred and

403
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 2: forty seventh and three point attempt rate and outside the

404
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:28,400
Speaker 2: top three hundred three point percentage. Only Jones is really

405
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:32,120
Speaker 2: their only reliable shooter, So like there's there's not many

406
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,920
Speaker 2: things that are working in the variants department if you're

407
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 2: looking for a super you know, Arizona to get upset again,

408
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 2: and you know they Arizona's top twenty five and defensive

409
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 2: rebounding rate and free throws allowed. That's like Long Beach States.

410
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 2: Unless they're getting turnovers and getting it out in transition.

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00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 2: That's Long Beach State's like most efficient offense getting to

412
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 2: the line and getting offensive rebounds. Not really able to

413
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,160
Speaker 2: going to be able to do that against Arizona, who

414
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,640
Speaker 2: I think will be able to ultimately handle the pressure.

415
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 2: They also can eat up on the offensive glass here,

416
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 2: So you know, this line is about where I make it.

417
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:17,159
Speaker 2: But there's you know this Long Beach State. Let's to

418
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 2: play fast and Arizona could end up putting up one

419
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 2: hundred here. So if I had to bet it, I'd

420
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 2: probably take Arizona. But I don't really see any value

421
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 2: in the line calibery is any quick thoughts here on

422
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:36,880
Speaker 2: this game or any implications for later on in the bracket.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I always pause when I see the altitude,

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Speaker 1: so I just wanted to check. Oh, let's see how

425
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 1: Arizona did at Utah. This year, they scored one hundred

426
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 1: and five points and the Thursday Saturday back to back,

427
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 1: then they go to Colorado score ninety nine points. I

428
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 1: think that's a little bit of a psychological plus for

429
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:53,120
Speaker 1: them in terms of being I.

430
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 2: Was out there a triple overtime game too, yep.

431
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,200
Speaker 1: I mean that was, as you've said before, the spot

432
00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:00,080
Speaker 1: of spots, you know, to go ahead there and to

433
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 1: go against Arizona. But they were able to play some

434
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: of their best offensive basketball the entire season. So I

435
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: think there's no reason to be interested in long beach.

436
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,439
Speaker 1: This is either a pass or perhaps maybe a first

437
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 1: half number where Arizona just runs them off the floor

438
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 1: and you know, builds up a fifteen to twenty point

439
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 1: lead at half.

440
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to the next game on

441
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 2: the board. Three ten eastern on True TV. This is

442
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 2: when we really get cooking during the day. There's gonna

443
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 2: be multiple games going on here, and the next slate

444
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 2: is tipping off. Hopefully have some crazy finishes in the

445
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 2: early slate, but Illinois Morehead will tip off a three

446
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 2: ten eastern on True TV in Omaha, Nebraska. Illinois is

447
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 2: an eleven and a half point favored here. Total one

448
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 2: forty eight and a half. I love Morehead State here.

449
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 2: It's one of my favorite bets of the first round.

450
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 2: Now I will say you might you wight start to

451
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 2: see this if you're on twit Twitter. Oh everyone loves

452
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:07,239
Speaker 2: more It's there, dude. So yes, it's become more. It's

453
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 2: become pretty trendy. But I keep a couple of things

454
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 2: in mind. Twitter is a big echo chamber. You know,

455
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 2: a couple people like a pick early, and then everyone

456
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 2: kind of jumps on and just says those same reasons.

457
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 2: And don't forget Twitter is a minuscule Who you see

458
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 2: on Twitter is a minuscule percentage of the betting population

459
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 2: in the world. And those trendy picks. I remember as

460
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 2: soon as the draw came out, I started banging the

461
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 2: drum for Ohio over Virginia and the entire world was on.

462
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 1: Me and you were on the live show, and I

463
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 1: remember the same thought. It was like, oh, no, here come,

464
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,879
Speaker 1: this is the trendy pick. Everyone in the universe is

465
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:53,440
Speaker 1: on them.

466
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 2: And guess what they want. So don't get scared off

467
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 2: of a bet just because it's a you think it's

468
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 2: a trendy pick. If you like the team bet the team.

469
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,920
Speaker 2: If you don't, don't, but I really like Morehead State here.

470
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 2: This is the one thing that gives me pause. I mean,

471
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,639
Speaker 2: Tarren Shaddon could go off here, could go off against anyone.

472
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 2: You hope that he doesn't get a beneficial whistle or

473
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 2: as beneficial level whistles he sometimes gets in the Big

474
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,400
Speaker 2: Ten because more State can't get into foul trouble here.

475
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,199
Speaker 2: They don't have a lot of depth. That is a

476
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 2: big concern for me. In Illinois obviously has more talent,

477
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:32,440
Speaker 2: but Morehead State profiles as the exact team that can

478
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 2: pull off an upset as a lower seed against a

479
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 2: better opponent. On paper, they play super slow, they're very

480
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 2: well coached, they're experienced, they have, you know, a trio

481
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 2: of guards that they're not overly reliant on any one

482
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 2: of them. Fell well, uh, you know you have Jordan Lathan,

483
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 2: they any of them can get hot from deep. And

484
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 2: then you have Riley Minnicks, who's just if you haven't

485
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 2: watched him play, he's a treat six to seven uber

486
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 2: versatile player. Previously National Player of the Year at the

487
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 2: JUCO level this year is the OVC Player of the Year.

488
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 2: He can score anywhere on the court down low from

489
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 2: three impeccable footwork. He's just a really tough guard for

490
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 2: opposing defenses. And then you have a Xavier transfer and

491
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 2: Deontay Miles in the middle manning their deep drop defense.

492
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 2: This is a battle of two deep drop defenses. So

493
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 2: if you look at their statistical profile, they're pretty similar.

494
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 2: The couple of the things that stick out to me

495
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 2: is not only is more of State play super slow,

496
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 2: which is very beneficial for an underdog, but they can

497
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 2: keep Illinois out of transition. They're also an excellent rebounding team.

498
00:29:57,000 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 2: That's super important against Illinois. And their biggest issue more

499
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 2: the biggest issue by far, because that's a lack of depths.

500
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 2: You got to stay out. The foul trouble here is

501
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 2: their turnovers, and they are turnover prone, but that is

502
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 2: not a problem against Illinois, who just they don't the

503
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 2: Illini and I just don't pressure the ball. The third

504
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 2: lowest turnover rate in the country on defense, so that

505
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 2: should help out Morehead State as well. Warren State also

506
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 2: much more rested, and they have a really good coach.

507
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 2: I feel like he's gonna have some added wrinkles. This

508
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 2: is a team that's gonna have in a week and

509
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 2: a half to prepare for this game. Meanwhile, Illinois is

510
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 2: coming off of a deep run at the Big Ten Tournament,

511
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 2: and you know over the past couple of years those

512
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: teams have not had success in the first weekend the

513
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 2: Big Ten champs of the tournament. So yeah, Illinois's offense

514
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 2: is awesome. I mean they are damask and especially Tarreon Chenning.

515
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 2: We can go for forty on any given night, but

516
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 2: the defense has holes at their rim. They miss missed assignments,

517
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 2: and this Morehead State team can take advantage. So and look,

518
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 2: I said, more at State fits the bill of a

519
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 2: team lower seat that can go off an upset, and

520
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 2: you have Illinois, who fits the mold for a higher

521
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 2: seed that usually gets bounced early. Top ten offense, defense

522
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 2: around ninetieth in overall, just the deficiency that usually doesn't play.

523
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 2: So I think more Stake can shorten this game, slow

524
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 2: it up, and they're gonna have a shot with their talent.

525
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 2: I like the Eagles out of the OBC randall you agree.

526
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 3: As soon as I saw it, I liked it, and

527
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 3: I really liked I put your tweet out on X

528
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 3: love the comparison to Keegan Murray and Iowa. Everything is

529
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 3: Tarren Shannon and Dumbask. Yes, Coleman Hawkins does some things

530
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 3: as well, but they rely on Shannon and he was

531
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 3: on fire in that second half against Wisconsin to get

532
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 3: home for the Big Ten Tournament title. I have always

533
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 3: faded teams that don't play defense in the tournament because

534
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 3: the game slows down. Morehead's really gonna slow you down.

535
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 3: And the big difference for me is Morehead has size. Normally,

536
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 3: the teams, with the exception of Purdue last year with

537
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 3: Zach Eaty, that have size inside rarely get upset the

538
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 3: big teams in the first round. How many times seeing

539
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 3: North Carolina lose in the first round with Tyler Hansboro

540
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 3: and Zeller in those guys. But Morehead State has the

541
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 3: size their top fifty and average height and the one

542
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 3: area you mentioned it, You'll look at their profile and

543
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 3: look at them within the Ohio Valley. The one area

544
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 3: they struggle is offensive turnovers, and Illinois does not force them.

545
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 3: They're great at effective field goal percentage. They're great effective

546
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 3: field goal percentage defense. They're great on the boards, they

547
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 3: box out one and done, great on two point offense,

548
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 3: great on two point defense. And yes, the variance is

549
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 3: what we want. We want a team, which is why

550
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 3: total ancillary point. I don't like yell against Auburn because

551
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 3: that's not your type of team in the IVY like

552
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 3: Princeton last year, which had the big in the middle

553
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 3: and they shot threes. Morehead State does forty four point

554
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 3: six percent of their shots in the Ohio Valley came

555
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 3: from beyond the arc. They embraced the three, they shoot it.

556
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 3: They have plenty of players, they play defense, they slow

557
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 3: the pace down. Illinois doesn't play defense. All we need

558
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 3: is to have Tarren Shannon come back to Earth a

559
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 3: little bit and not go for thirty points. And I

560
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:27,479
Speaker 3: think we have a shot here. So I was on

561
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: it as well as soon as Morehead came out. I

562
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 3: love this draw for the Eagles.

563
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 2: Kyle Breese here, good census here. You like Morehead as well?

564
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 1: Oh I do. I love Riley Minnix. And you know

565
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:42,080
Speaker 1: a point you brought up basically since the calendar flip

566
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 1: to March. When you are a mid major, can your

567
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 1: top player be taken away from you? And we have

568
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 1: comps here. He gave nineteen to Alabama on eight for

569
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 1: fifteen shooting from the Field scored eighteen against Purdue double

570
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 1: double in a near upset of Indiana because when you

571
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 1: watch him play, he's so versatile. But they also use

572
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 1: him in the pick and roll game, so you can't

573
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 1: double him in a pick and roll situation. And then

574
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 1: when he gets the ball one on one, he can

575
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 1: either shoot over people or put it on the deck

576
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,480
Speaker 1: and get to the hoop. He has so many weapons

577
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,360
Speaker 1: in so many you know, tricks in his bag that

578
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:15,359
Speaker 1: I think he's going to be able to score. He's

579
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 1: probably gonna need to score in the mid twenties for

580
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 1: this to be an upset, but certainly plus the points.

581
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 1: I think this is an opportunity to take advantage of

582
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 1: an Illinois defense that's a bit matador in the lane.

583
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:26,720
Speaker 1: As soon as you get in there, you get a bucket.

584
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:30,400
Speaker 1: So I think the Eagles are rightfully so a trendy

585
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 1: pick to hang around for forty months, all right.

586
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 2: Moving on to Thursday, four pm Eastern on TNT in Pittsburgh,

587
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:45,760
Speaker 2: we have Oregon in South Carolina. Oregon the surprise team

588
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 2: from the PAC twelve after winning the PAC twelve championship.

589
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 2: South kinda one one and a half point favorite here

590
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:59,800
Speaker 2: over under one thirty three and a half. I know, Ra,

591
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:04,240
Speaker 2: you're probably gonna be banging the drum for your game Cocks,

592
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 2: as you always do. I might provide a counter to you,

593
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:13,719
Speaker 2: although I haven't bet this game yet, but make a

594
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 2: case for your Cocks.

595
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 3: Twenty three and ten against the spread. And I understand

596
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 3: why people don't like to bet South Carolina because they

597
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 3: were supposed to be so brutal at the beginning of

598
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 3: the year. They play at an extremely slow pace three

599
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty fourth in the country per Ken Palm

600
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 3: a La Virginia. Those type of teams are not going

601
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 3: to draw a tremendous amount of public support, but they

602
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 3: are great on defense. They don't turn the ball over,

603
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:45,280
Speaker 3: the offense of rebounding is relentless, and this team battled

604
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 3: the best teams in the SEC. They won at Tennessee,

605
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 3: they won away at Arkansas early in the year when

606
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:55,280
Speaker 3: Arkansas was actually decent late in the year, one at Mississippi,

607
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 3: one at our Texas, a and M team that we

608
00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 3: always liked, and then they struggled against Auburn, who went

609
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:03,879
Speaker 3: away and hit. Oregon is not that type of team. Yes,

610
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 3: Dana Altman's great against the spread in the tournament. I

611
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:10,760
Speaker 3: know that, but this Lamont Paris team has proven everyone

612
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:14,280
Speaker 3: wrong all year and they continue to do so great

613
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 3: on the boards. They just need to be able to

614
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 3: make some shots. I need good Michie Johnson in this game.

615
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 3: And the line is now South Carolina favored by one

616
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 3: and a half Oregon. No one was on them. They

617
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 3: got on a fantastic run the PAC twelve tournament. Dante inside,

618
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:32,960
Speaker 3: but I think the physicality of the defense, the position,

619
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 3: the execution, and the slow game favorite South Carolina. Yes, stuck.

620
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:40,320
Speaker 3: I will continue with the game Cocks to continue to

621
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:42,200
Speaker 3: roll on here. A team that I just don't think

622
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:44,839
Speaker 3: that's respect and can actually win a couple games gets

623
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 3: to that second weekend.

624
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:51,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll to play Devil's advocate because I'm leading Oregon

625
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 2: right now. Vance I'm not sure if I'll bet it,

626
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 2: but uh, I'm not sure that South Gun is anyone

627
00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:02,319
Speaker 2: who could slow down Dante and Oregon. I just like

628
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 2: Dana Altman, is a fantastic tournament coach at Oregon. He's

629
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 2: seven to zero in the first round with an average

630
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:13,799
Speaker 2: seed of seven point one. He's fifteen to six and

631
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 2: one against the spread in the tournament nine and three

632
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 2: against the spread as an underdog eleven to two and

633
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 2: one against the spread with three or more days to

634
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:26,759
Speaker 2: prepare in the NCAA tournament. He's gonna mix up his defenses.

635
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 2: He's I assume he's gonna throw out a zone at

636
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 2: South Carolina. South Carolina does break out well against zone,

637
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 2: but they didn't see it often, and they mainly saw

638
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 2: it against Missouri and Elon, not necessarily known for their

639
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 2: defensive prowess. So I think I think, as of now,

640
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:55,280
Speaker 2: I might trust Altman and his changing defenses and Dante

641
00:37:55,480 --> 00:38:01,319
Speaker 2: inside to get this done. I will go to Calabresee

642
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 2: just to break the tie. You know, maybe not for

643
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:07,320
Speaker 2: a bet, but for people are conflicted on their bracket.

644
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 2: You don't even have to give reasoning. Are you taking?

645
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna go with Altman. I mean, you bring

646
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 1: up the numbers. You bring up is coaching acumen. It's

647
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:18,319
Speaker 1: not roster dependent, it's not matchup dependent. It's him. If

648
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:20,919
Speaker 1: he shows up in March, he puts together a great

649
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:22,799
Speaker 1: game plan and they execute it. They have the best

650
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:25,360
Speaker 1: player on the floor. I love what South Carolina has

651
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 1: done this year. I love what Lamont's done. I think

652
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 1: he deserves all of his flowers. But at the end

653
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 1: of the day, I think he squeezed the most out

654
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 1: of this roster already, and I think this is not

655
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 1: a good matchup to pick up an Oregon team that

656
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 1: is getting hot at the right time. I still think

657
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 1: their ceiling is even higher where I feel like I

658
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 1: know what I'm getting with South Carolina. So I'm gonna

659
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 1: go ahead and take the Ducks.

660
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 2: By the way, just to speak to some of the

661
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 2: seating here, you have the eleven seeds. Are who in

662
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:56,800
Speaker 2: the eleven seeds since twenty ten have a winning record,

663
00:38:56,840 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 2: by the way, twenty seven and twenty five over the

664
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:05,440
Speaker 2: past fifty two matchups between six and elevens. But you

665
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 2: have a couple Oregon could close the favor we'll see,

666
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 2: so you could have a couple elevens that are favored

667
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 2: over six is the ten. Nevada is also favored against Dayton.

668
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 2: Nevada is a one and a half point favorite. This

669
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 2: game will tip off at four to thirty Eastern on

670
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 2: TBS in altitude in Salt Lake City. So something to

671
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:34,759
Speaker 2: note right off the bat is Mountain West teams have

672
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 2: been horrific in the tournament for the past twenty years,

673
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:41,360
Speaker 2: especially against the spread. I think they're like one in

674
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:44,280
Speaker 2: twenty six all times straight up as a double digit seed.

675
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 2: A lot of people attribute that to their altitude advantage

676
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 2: going away. Well, Nevada, which plays in high altitude, Well,

677
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,919
Speaker 2: this is an altitude game, So does that favor them here?

678
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 2: That's certainly something worth noting. Doron Holmes a star for Dayton,

679
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:11,959
Speaker 2: But if you look at Dayton, they really stumbled down

680
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 2: the stretch and they just they just didn't look great. Really.

681
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:18,799
Speaker 2: They got an overtime win over VCU. They lost to

682
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:21,720
Speaker 2: do Caane in the tournament, they lost that little Chicago,

683
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:24,839
Speaker 2: they lost that George Mason. You know, their wins come

684
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:28,920
Speaker 2: over Davidson and Saint Louis. In regulation, nobody's helping homes.

685
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,440
Speaker 1: Where's the help for Holmes? You know pretty much he

686
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:33,359
Speaker 1: had a little bit of a blip in the middle

687
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 1: of this conference season and then started getting it going again,

688
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 1: and just the guards have just not been there to

689
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:39,839
Speaker 1: help him out.

690
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:45,839
Speaker 2: Yeah. I will say that Dayton does do a really

691
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:48,520
Speaker 2: good job of defending without failing. Their third in the

692
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:52,799
Speaker 2: nation in that department. That's big against Nevada, who lives

693
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 2: at the line. They're third in the country and getting

694
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:58,400
Speaker 2: to the line. So can Nevada get to the line?

695
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:04,880
Speaker 2: We will see. Nevada also allows a high volume of threes,

696
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 2: which isn't necessarily a good thing against Dayton, who shoots

697
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 2: them at a top thirty frequency and hits them at

698
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 2: a top three rate. They're over forty percent from three

699
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:23,319
Speaker 2: on the season. I'm not sure Nevada has anyone to

700
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 2: really match up with Holmes either, but I'm still going

701
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 2: back and forth on this game. This is one of

702
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 2: the handful that I also had circled to go back

703
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:36,840
Speaker 2: on Randall. Let me throw it to you first for

704
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 2: your quick thoughts. What do you like in Nevada?

705
00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 3: Dayton bell Weather is Javon Bennett the point guard they

706
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,719
Speaker 3: I watched the Loyalis Chicago game back on March first.

707
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 3: At Loyal Chicago, Dan was in control of that game.

708
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:51,799
Speaker 3: Bennett gets hurt and the house of cards crumbles. He

709
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 3: doesn't play against Saint Louis, doesn't play against VCU. They

710
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:57,880
Speaker 3: still be VCU, which is impressive. Then they played Ducuine.

711
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 3: It was his first game back. Five three from the field,

712
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:04,320
Speaker 3: all from three point range, just really didn't do much.

713
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 3: This is a player who is critical for this success because,

714
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 3: like you mentioned, they're not very deep and they have

715
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 3: to guard and not foul. I think the rest does

716
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:13,840
Speaker 3: Bennett well and it's very tough stuck for me to

717
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 3: get off a team with a dominant post player in

718
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 3: Deron Holmes that is well coached by Anthony Grant, that

719
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 3: can actually shoot a ton of threes and make a

720
00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:25,240
Speaker 3: ton of threes. I don't think Nevada has an answer

721
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 3: for Holmes inside. I get the altitude part, which is

722
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 3: why this is a coin flip to me. But I

723
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:33,880
Speaker 3: think Dayton on the starting five is a more talented team.

724
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 3: I think they're able to establish homes inside. I think

725
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 3: they can guard the perimeter on Lucas Black Cheer, keep

726
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:42,600
Speaker 3: those guys somewhat under wraps. I like Dayton here. I

727
00:42:42,640 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 3: agree it's very close to in. Whoever gets through has a

728
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 3: very good chance in the next game. But I'm gonna

729
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 3: take Dayton. Say they make some threes, give me a

730
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:53,880
Speaker 3: healthy Bennett, and I think the Flyers take it home recently.

731
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 2: Get you for your thoughts.

732
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:58,319
Speaker 1: It kind of kills me because I'm the eight ten guy.

733
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 1: I want to ride with my conft, but this is

734
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 1: another mis seeded situation. Nevada is a lot better than

735
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:06,839
Speaker 1: a ten seed, and they've been tested in the past

736
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:09,319
Speaker 1: six weeks by just a slew of really good Mound

737
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 1: West teams. They're far more complete when you consider their

738
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:14,040
Speaker 1: guard play with Lucas and Black Share, and Lucas in

739
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 1: particular has been on this hot streak I talked about,

740
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 1: you know, the guards, whether it's injuries or just kind

741
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:21,400
Speaker 1: of shrinking in some of the bigger moments. Yes, they

742
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:23,640
Speaker 1: can shoot the lights out as a team, but I'm

743
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 1: concerned in those crunch time moments when they're taking away homes.

744
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 1: Because we can all agree Holmes is a legitimate superstar

745
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:32,719
Speaker 1: on both ends. He's averaging over twenty eight and a

746
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 1: half rebounds two and a half blocks per game. But

747
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 1: I've seen it happen where teams have in the last

748
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:42,400
Speaker 1: few possessions of a game made it difficult for him

749
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 1: to get the ball, doubling him off the ball, saying,

750
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:48,360
Speaker 1: essentially to Grant's teams, like, you know, if there's anybody

751
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 1: in the backcourt that can beat us, so be it.

752
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:52,359
Speaker 2: So I think in a.

753
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 1: Coin flip situation, I'm leading leaning with Nevada, and I

754
00:43:56,160 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 1: think the differentiator the last piece that pushes me in

755
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 1: their direction is the altitude. I don't actually think that

756
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:03,879
Speaker 1: that's just a narrative thing. I think it will make

757
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 1: an impact in this game, particularly down the stretch, and

758
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 1: they have a deeper bench, so we'll go to the

759
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 1: wolf peck.

760
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 2: The good thing for Dayton is that at least they

761
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 2: don't found they do play super slow. Speaking of which,

762
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 2: when both teams in the NCAA tournament average under seventy

763
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:27,440
Speaker 2: possessions per game, which both of these teams do, the

764
00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:32,239
Speaker 2: first half under is one forty eight, one eleven and

765
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:37,000
Speaker 2: six over the past twenty seasons. That's fifty seven percent

766
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 2: over a sample size of more than two hundred and

767
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 2: fifty games. That's the first half under the games that

768
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:51,279
Speaker 2: fit the mold. In the first round, Yukon Stetson, I

769
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:53,160
Speaker 2: don't know if I could pull a trigger, and I

770
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 2: don't know how Stetson gets any stops. Houston, Longwood, Duke,

771
00:44:57,560 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 2: Vermont like that one, Colgate and Dayton Nevada. I'll break

772
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:08,640
Speaker 2: the tie in this. If you're filling out a bracket

773
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 2: and need a push, uh, I'm gonna go with Dayton.

774
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 2: That does not go be able to get to the

775
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:19,759
Speaker 2: line and I'm gonna trust the best player on the

776
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 2: floor in Holmes. Look at this, the two non eight

777
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:28,879
Speaker 2: ten guys rolling with the A ten calgaryes is rolling

778
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 2: and doesn't feel good.

779
00:45:29,600 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 1: I'm gonna tell you it does not feel good. But

780
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:34,719
Speaker 1: I gotta trust my instincts. Really, in the last six weeks,

781
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:38,280
Speaker 1: I haven't seen the same Dayton team that had top fifteen,

782
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:41,480
Speaker 1: maybe top ten aspirations early in the season. They just

783
00:45:41,520 --> 00:45:43,400
Speaker 1: were not at that class level.

784
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:47,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I now, I've said to myself, well, this will

785
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:50,640
Speaker 2: be you know, it's a game around a pick. We'll

786
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:54,960
Speaker 2: learn something about Colorado State, hopefully, like is the Mountain

787
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 2: Less different this year? But I don't can we you know,

788
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:00,800
Speaker 2: if we were saying that too plays a part of

789
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:03,439
Speaker 2: it and his game is an altitude, maybe we don't

790
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:06,480
Speaker 2: learn a lot and it's you know, a minut school

791
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:09,120
Speaker 2: sample size. But I'm very curious to see how the

792
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 2: Mountain West does this year with all the narratives arounding them,

793
00:46:14,040 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 2: all of their lack of success in the past, and

794
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:21,359
Speaker 2: now getting six teams in. But let's move on to

795
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 2: our next game. Be an exciting time with definitely some

796
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:33,880
Speaker 2: nerves based on recent history here in Lexington, when Kentucky

797
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 2: tips off against Oakland seven to ten Eastern on CBS

798
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 2: in Pittsburgh. Kentucky's a thirteen and a half point favorite

799
00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:49,240
Speaker 2: here over under one sixty three and a half randall.

800
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:55,359
Speaker 2: Kentucky is a polarizing team. I could no result in

801
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:58,440
Speaker 2: this tournament would shock me. They could go to the

802
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:02,400
Speaker 2: final four. I don't think that their defense can get

803
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 2: is good enough to win it all, but I wouldn't

804
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:09,959
Speaker 2: be shocked under the final four. I wouldn't be shocked

805
00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 2: if they didn't make it out of the first weekend.

806
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:15,680
Speaker 2: What do you see in Kentucky Oakland?

807
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:21,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I see Kentucky running away here. Love Greg Campy,

808
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 3: fantastic with his own discipline team. My issue with the

809
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:29,200
Speaker 3: Grizzlies here is that they entered the year with one

810
00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 3: hundred and seventh in D one experience and one hundred

811
00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:35,560
Speaker 3: and ten and minutes continuity, so stuck. The team that

812
00:47:35,600 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 3: I would like against the Kentucky would be like a

813
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:42,759
Speaker 3: veteran team with experience, like a Morehead or somebody like that,

814
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:47,319
Speaker 3: who can actually inflict their style. I don't think Oakland's

815
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:51,239
Speaker 3: talent is enough to inflict a style advantage here. Trey

816
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 3: Townsend is wonderful. He's going to struggle to get the

817
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 3: baskets that he got against Milwaukee. Milwaukee wanted to get

818
00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:00,840
Speaker 3: up and down the floor, and Oakland allowedventy six points

819
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 3: to them. That was concerning. Their offense was fantastic and

820
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:08,719
Speaker 3: Townshend was superior in that Horizon League championship game. It's

821
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:12,040
Speaker 3: just Kentucky's offense is too good. You really have to

822
00:48:12,080 --> 00:48:15,040
Speaker 3: be able to play defense at a Texas A and

823
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:18,040
Speaker 3: M like level to limit them. I think they get

824
00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:21,360
Speaker 3: open shots, they knock them down their depth. Their offense

825
00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:23,560
Speaker 3: is good enough to get through the first round. I

826
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 3: don't know how long they're gonna be in this tournament,

827
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:27,759
Speaker 3: but I do think they're getting by Oakland here. I

828
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 3: will take them in this matchup.

829
00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:32,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't see Oaklan frolling off an upset. That

830
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:35,800
Speaker 2: the only way that I could like. Kentucky's defense sometimes

831
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 2: just doesn't show up. And I will say, you know,

832
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:42,480
Speaker 2: like Kentucky lost at home to UNC Wilmington. They went

833
00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:45,400
Speaker 2: to overtime and home against Saint Jose and Oakland did

834
00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 2: fair pretty well in the non conference. They won at Xavier,

835
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:50,600
Speaker 2: they lost by six and eleven on the road against

836
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 2: Ohio State and Illinois. They lost by eight on the

837
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 2: neutral court against Drake, So like they they did show

838
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:00,800
Speaker 2: that they can hang when they step up up in class.

839
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 2: But you mentioned it, they're one of the most zone

840
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:06,319
Speaker 2: heavy teams in the country. The problem so that does

841
00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:08,359
Speaker 2: lead to increased parents and they also shoot a ton

842
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 2: of threes. And Jack Golkie is the ultimate chucker. Yes,

843
00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:13,640
Speaker 2: Jack Golkie for Oakland, by the way, three hundred and

844
00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:17,719
Speaker 2: twenty seven to three point attempts eight, two point attempts eight,

845
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:23,000
Speaker 2: three twenty seven to eight. So Oakland doesn't play super fast,

846
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:25,640
Speaker 2: and they shoot a ton of threes, and they'll give

847
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:27,800
Speaker 2: up a ton of threes, which is what you're looking

848
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:31,120
Speaker 2: for if you want to pick a stunning up set.

849
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 2: And like Illinois, like Alabama, Kentucky does fit that profile

850
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 2: of a team that usually doesn't make a deep runt,

851
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 2: the lead offense defense outside of the top one hundred

852
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:44,239
Speaker 2: and overall adjusted efficiency. But I think there's so much

853
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:49,640
Speaker 2: talent for Kentucky here. And while Oakland's zone leads to

854
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:53,160
Speaker 2: a lot of threes, as you would expect, the problem

855
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 2: is they lead to way too many wide open looks

856
00:49:56,800 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 2: unguarded jumpers. That's bad news against Kentucky. Kentucky's zone defense

857
00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 2: grades out excuse me, Kentucky's zone offense grades out elite.

858
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:10,880
Speaker 2: They also generate open, uncontested jumpers at one of the

859
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:13,400
Speaker 2: highest rates in the country and hit them at one

860
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:16,440
Speaker 2: of the highest rates in the country. So you know,

861
00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:20,040
Speaker 2: unless Kentucky is just has a nightmarish day from the outside,

862
00:50:21,040 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 2: and even in that scenario, they have a huge size advantage,

863
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 2: like they should be able to They're not a great

864
00:50:28,200 --> 00:50:29,880
Speaker 2: offensive rebound team, but they should be able to get

865
00:50:29,920 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 2: second chance points. They should be able to score at

866
00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 2: the rim. And this Oakland team, I have a lot

867
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:37,680
Speaker 2: of respect for Towns and I actually think I'll be

868
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:41,560
Speaker 2: able to have a productive day. But the way that

869
00:50:41,640 --> 00:50:46,520
Speaker 2: they know they work an isolation heavy offense, so I

870
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:49,480
Speaker 2: don't think that they can really exploit some of Kentucky's

871
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:54,239
Speaker 2: like communication and assignment issues on defense, especially off the ball.

872
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 2: So I don't think this is the worst matchup for Kentucky,

873
00:50:57,719 --> 00:50:59,880
Speaker 2: as is the best three point shooting team in the

874
00:50:59,880 --> 00:51:03,879
Speaker 2: country five percentage, and they're going up against the zone

875
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 2: defense that allows just a non stop flow of open jumpers.

876
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:14,120
Speaker 2: That spells disaster. The only way I can see this

877
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:18,280
Speaker 2: getting interesting is if Kentucky has a lot of pressure

878
00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:21,200
Speaker 2: on them. This as a team like all they live

879
00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:25,799
Speaker 2: in a Yeah, they basically live in like a mic.

880
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:29,440
Speaker 2: Everything is over analyzed. They the only thing that matters

881
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 2: in the state is the basketball team. Hal Parry has

882
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:36,440
Speaker 2: not had any success in recent seasons. They've had early exits,

883
00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:40,960
Speaker 2: bad upsets. So if Kentucky's ice cold and that defense

884
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 2: just besides it doesn't want to show up as it

885
00:51:44,680 --> 00:51:49,319
Speaker 2: does sometimes and Oakland with three point variants can keep

886
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:54,320
Speaker 2: it close to like ten minute mark, then the crowd,

887
00:51:55,480 --> 00:52:01,440
Speaker 2: the nerves, the pressure, then it could get interesting. So Kentucky,

888
00:52:01,440 --> 00:52:05,960
Speaker 2: you gotta get off to a fast start. Here are

889
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:07,719
Speaker 2: he's any thoughts on this game before we move on.

890
00:52:08,440 --> 00:52:10,200
Speaker 1: This kind of reminds me of like a college football

891
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:13,800
Speaker 1: matchup where one team can't stop the run and it's like, uh, oh,

892
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:17,120
Speaker 1: we drew a power rushing team, like they were not

893
00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 1: going to be able to tackle anybody before they get

894
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:21,760
Speaker 1: seven or eight yards every single carry. Like this zone

895
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:24,239
Speaker 1: defense up against one of the best shooting teams in

896
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:26,920
Speaker 1: the entire country that eviscerates the zone.

897
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:28,200
Speaker 2: That's the same kind.

898
00:52:28,080 --> 00:52:30,000
Speaker 1: Of formula here. It's like you have to get really

899
00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 1: creative to have any kind of game script where Oakland

900
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:36,920
Speaker 1: is hanging around and Kentucky is missing a ton of shots.

901
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 1: I agree in a hypothetical world where Oakland, let's say,

902
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:42,560
Speaker 1: you know, they get red hot, they make fourteen threes,

903
00:52:42,560 --> 00:52:44,920
Speaker 1: and they hang around, the pressure does slide to Kentucky.

904
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:47,799
Speaker 1: But I think this is just an ideal matchup for

905
00:52:47,800 --> 00:52:50,880
Speaker 1: the Wildcats to build some confidence back up and to

906
00:52:51,200 --> 00:52:52,799
Speaker 1: head into the round of thirty two with some wind

907
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:53,360
Speaker 1: in their sales.

908
00:52:54,480 --> 00:52:58,040
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to the calibery Special seven Eastern

909
00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:01,759
Speaker 2: TBS and it all like sitting another altitude game between

910
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:07,880
Speaker 2: McNeese State and Gonzaga. Gonzaga around a six point favorite

911
00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:14,920
Speaker 2: here over under one fifty and a half. My favorite

912
00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 2: nugget that got a lot of love on Twitter is

913
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 2: McNeese State's non conference schedule, which included games against Biblical

914
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:30,719
Speaker 2: Studies Champion Christian Laturno, and the Mississippi University for Women. Yes,

915
00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:32,719
Speaker 2: they have a men's basketball team. I had to go

916
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:35,920
Speaker 2: investigate this. At least they've made some progress. It used

917
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:40,760
Speaker 2: to be called the Minnesota University Education for White Women,

918
00:53:42,320 --> 00:53:45,640
Speaker 2: so at least they changed that. But I read a

919
00:53:45,640 --> 00:53:47,960
Speaker 2: press clipping that said they've been trying to decide on

920
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:51,680
Speaker 2: a name for twenty years, to hey, you don't want

921
00:53:51,680 --> 00:53:57,160
Speaker 2: to rush it reflect their demographics, like twenty just pick

922
00:53:57,239 --> 00:54:02,600
Speaker 2: a name. I mean, ridiculous, But underwill Wade McNee state

923
00:54:03,000 --> 00:54:07,920
Speaker 2: is legit. Pressure heavy d I was worried about how

924
00:54:08,000 --> 00:54:10,640
Speaker 2: they will handle the size of EK, but digging into

925
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 2: their numbers, they they're going to just throw bodies at

926
00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:19,719
Speaker 2: them to trap him, frustrate him. And I actually think that,

927
00:54:21,600 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 2: you know, the pressure might be able to give Gonzaga

928
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:28,719
Speaker 2: some issues. Calgary, so I know you have thoughts on

929
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:31,040
Speaker 2: this game. What do you see? Well?

930
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:33,400
Speaker 1: First off, shout out to Matt Mitchell was the Southern

931
00:54:33,440 --> 00:54:36,480
Speaker 1: Poverty Law Center not available for McNeice in the in

932
00:54:36,520 --> 00:54:42,040
Speaker 1: the non con listen. I understand that e K is

933
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:47,160
Speaker 1: a matchup problem, but I agree watching film, reading the

934
00:54:47,560 --> 00:54:50,680
Speaker 1: previews of this game, reading other x's and O breakdowns,

935
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:52,759
Speaker 1: they're going to trap them. They're not gonna it's not

936
00:54:52,760 --> 00:54:54,839
Speaker 1: gonna be a situation where they can just throw six

937
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:57,080
Speaker 1: to ten bodies at them. They don't have them, but

938
00:54:57,200 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 1: they turned teams over almost twenty percent of their possessions.

939
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:02,200
Speaker 1: They are going to crank up the pressure and particularly

940
00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:05,239
Speaker 1: when Hickman has the ball. Someone I've been underwhelmed by

941
00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:08,520
Speaker 1: basically this entire season. His numbers have taken a little

942
00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:10,600
Speaker 1: bit of a tick up in the month of you know,

943
00:55:10,719 --> 00:55:12,960
Speaker 1: months of February in March, but a lot of those

944
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:16,319
Speaker 1: games he was crushing WCC teams that are not in

945
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:18,920
Speaker 1: the postseason. So I'm unpressed with him, and I have

946
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:21,319
Speaker 1: the best guard in the game, I arguably the best

947
00:55:21,320 --> 00:55:23,759
Speaker 1: guard at least from a point guard perspective, in this

948
00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:26,880
Speaker 1: entire tournament. Shahada Wells is a dude. I mean, the

949
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 1: TCU transfer can do it all. He's got three games

950
00:55:29,520 --> 00:55:33,239
Speaker 1: with thirty plus points. He's also grabbed ten or more

951
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:36,920
Speaker 1: rebounds twice. He's six feet tall, so he facilitates. He's

952
00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:39,759
Speaker 1: second nationally in steals with over three per game. And

953
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:43,200
Speaker 1: when they played against VCU UAB. I know that Michigan

954
00:55:43,280 --> 00:55:45,160
Speaker 1: didn't have a great year, at least in name brand,

955
00:55:45,320 --> 00:55:47,080
Speaker 1: it was an impressive double digit when they beat all

956
00:55:47,120 --> 00:55:49,919
Speaker 1: those teams by double digits. He's the ninth rated point

957
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:52,400
Speaker 1: guard in the field according to Evan Mea, which I

958
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:55,120
Speaker 1: think is underrating him. But he's the highest rated player

959
00:55:55,440 --> 00:55:58,560
Speaker 1: for you know, the mid major ranks, and like I

960
00:55:58,600 --> 00:56:01,080
Speaker 1: said with Ek, I think if they can figure out

961
00:56:01,120 --> 00:56:04,759
Speaker 1: away either through foul trouble or for forcing him, you know,

962
00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:07,480
Speaker 1: to try to make cross court passes, to try to

963
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:09,560
Speaker 1: pass out of the trap. If he has any issues

964
00:56:09,600 --> 00:56:11,960
Speaker 1: and is not dominant in this game, I think the

965
00:56:12,080 --> 00:56:14,319
Speaker 1: Zags are in big trouble to get upset because when

966
00:56:14,360 --> 00:56:16,920
Speaker 1: you look at his performance in their wins, he averaged

967
00:56:16,960 --> 00:56:19,680
Speaker 1: over eighteen points per game. In their seven losses, he

968
00:56:19,800 --> 00:56:22,440
Speaker 1: averaged less than twelve points per game. They live and

969
00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:25,400
Speaker 1: die with this guy, and he's had some really you know,

970
00:56:25,600 --> 00:56:28,360
Speaker 1: low moments in bottoming out. So I think there's an

971
00:56:28,360 --> 00:56:31,640
Speaker 1: opportunity for will Wade. He's been wearing the black hat

972
00:56:31,680 --> 00:56:34,200
Speaker 1: this whole year. He's been embracing it. He's finally coming

973
00:56:34,239 --> 00:56:36,680
Speaker 1: out of you know, the cloud cover with the NCAA.

974
00:56:36,719 --> 00:56:39,479
Speaker 1: He's done a phenomenal coaching job. If I had a vote,

975
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:41,960
Speaker 1: I'd probably put him in the ring first, second, or

976
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:44,000
Speaker 1: third for National Coach of the Year. That's how good

977
00:56:44,040 --> 00:56:45,960
Speaker 1: he has been. And I have an elite guard this

978
00:56:46,200 --> 00:56:48,840
Speaker 1: guard driven tournament. I can't wait to back the cowboys

979
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:51,760
Speaker 1: here on the money line to upset Gonzaga.

980
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:55,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm curious to see bigte State will mix in Zone.

981
00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:58,160
Speaker 2: They've gone pretty much exclusively Manily. I want to see

982
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:01,800
Speaker 2: if Wade mixed. Is it in more here in its turns.

983
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:06,759
Speaker 1: They have to a little bit otherwise it does seem like, yeah,

984
00:57:06,800 --> 00:57:07,160
Speaker 1: do you want to?

985
00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:08,719
Speaker 2: I think they want to mix up their d a

986
00:57:08,760 --> 00:57:14,680
Speaker 2: lot here, and it's good. Zaga grades out very well

987
00:57:14,719 --> 00:57:18,040
Speaker 2: against Zone, but they saw all they saw the only

988
00:57:18,040 --> 00:57:22,200
Speaker 2: time they saw Zone. We're against Pacific San Diego and

989
00:57:22,240 --> 00:57:27,200
Speaker 2: Mississippi Valley State. Your Delta Devil's horrific zones A little

990
00:57:27,560 --> 00:57:31,520
Speaker 2: different of a beast here, I gret I like McNeice,

991
00:57:32,280 --> 00:57:37,480
Speaker 2: and we'll probably be picking them in my bracket. This

992
00:57:37,560 --> 00:57:40,840
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Speaker 2: in your pants. Let's move on to D two seed

1009
00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:47,280
Speaker 2: Iowa State in action on Thursday night, taking on South

1010
00:58:47,360 --> 00:58:52,320
Speaker 2: Dakota State. Iowa State sixteen and a half point favorite

1011
00:58:52,320 --> 00:58:55,880
Speaker 2: here over under up to one thirty five and a half.

1012
00:58:57,400 --> 00:58:59,960
Speaker 2: I like South Dakota State. Actually it's ugly.

1013
00:59:00,200 --> 00:59:00,360
Speaker 1: Now.

1014
00:59:00,640 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 2: What worries me is, you know, if you wanted to

1015
00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:09,720
Speaker 2: get really crazy, this is the fifteen that I could

1016
00:59:09,720 --> 00:59:14,840
Speaker 2: see winning, you know, wild world. If the three point

1017
00:59:14,880 --> 00:59:16,760
Speaker 2: variance works in their way, like the key thing that

1018
00:59:16,840 --> 00:59:19,120
Speaker 2: has to happen here, I would says, defense is undoubtedly,

1019
00:59:19,840 --> 00:59:26,600
Speaker 2: and they blew out almost everyone that was inferior on

1020
00:59:27,120 --> 00:59:33,160
Speaker 2: their roster. But when I look at this game. What

1021
00:59:33,400 --> 00:59:35,880
Speaker 2: you know, if can South Dakota State, canzik Mao and

1022
00:59:36,000 --> 00:59:38,560
Speaker 2: company take care of the ball. They have turner issues,

1023
00:59:38,600 --> 00:59:41,600
Speaker 2: which is bad against Iowa State, who forces turnovers the

1024
00:59:41,640 --> 00:59:45,080
Speaker 2: highest rate in the country. But if they can do that,

1025
00:59:45,800 --> 00:59:48,840
Speaker 2: and I expect them to slow this game down, and

1026
00:59:49,360 --> 00:59:51,600
Speaker 2: you know they don't go after offensive rebounds, they're going

1027
00:59:51,680 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 2: to get back keep Ioway stayed out of transition again,

1028
00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:57,480
Speaker 2: assuming they don't turn it over too much. If that's

1029
00:59:57,520 --> 01:00:02,640
Speaker 2: the case, you know they can turn this game into

1030
01:00:02,680 --> 01:00:06,760
Speaker 2: a jump shooting contest. And South Dakota State has many

1031
01:00:06,760 --> 01:00:12,960
Speaker 2: capable shooters. Iowa State gives up freeze at a top

1032
01:00:13,200 --> 01:00:19,040
Speaker 2: ten rate nationally in terms of frequency. And on the

1033
01:00:19,080 --> 01:00:21,880
Speaker 2: other end, Iowa State, which is so good at finishing

1034
01:00:21,920 --> 01:00:24,240
Speaker 2: at the rim, they're going to against the South Dakota

1035
01:00:24,240 --> 01:00:28,800
Speaker 2: State defense that's uber compact and they don't allow anything

1036
01:00:28,840 --> 01:00:31,080
Speaker 2: at the rim. They allow a ton of three pointers

1037
01:00:31,680 --> 01:00:36,760
Speaker 2: because they're pretty unathletic on the perimeter. So you know,

1038
01:00:36,840 --> 01:00:40,120
Speaker 2: like in Iowa State, it's not a team that loves

1039
01:00:40,120 --> 01:00:42,240
Speaker 2: to shoot the three. They're outside the top three under

1040
01:00:42,240 --> 01:00:46,000
Speaker 2: attempt rate. They're not elite three point shooting team. And

1041
01:00:46,080 --> 01:00:50,840
Speaker 2: here's The thing with Iowa State is that you know

1042
01:00:50,920 --> 01:00:59,040
Speaker 2: they they're due for some potential variants. Since February first,

1043
01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:01,600
Speaker 2: opponents have hit just twenty eight point eight percent of

1044
01:01:01,640 --> 01:01:04,200
Speaker 2: three point attempts on a high volume. Like Iowa State,

1045
01:01:04,240 --> 01:01:06,880
Speaker 2: you get a ton of threes with their aggressive defense,

1046
01:01:07,880 --> 01:01:11,720
Speaker 2: and teams made thirty three and a half percent before

1047
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:18,280
Speaker 2: February first. So would it shock me that if South

1048
01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:23,240
Speaker 2: Dakota State has a good day from the outside. No,

1049
01:01:23,240 --> 01:01:25,440
Speaker 2: now here's the thing. South Dakota State gives up a

1050
01:01:25,440 --> 01:01:27,560
Speaker 2: ton of threes. So if i was States making them

1051
01:01:27,720 --> 01:01:30,959
Speaker 2: and South Dakota State is turning it over, Iowa State

1052
01:01:31,080 --> 01:01:33,960
Speaker 2: could win this game by forty and just there's a

1053
01:01:34,000 --> 01:01:36,720
Speaker 2: wide range of outcomes for this game. And just to

1054
01:01:36,760 --> 01:01:41,360
Speaker 2: show you, South Dakota State played two Big twelve teams

1055
01:01:41,360 --> 01:01:45,000
Speaker 2: this year and without Matt Matt Mims, who matters, he

1056
01:01:45,040 --> 01:01:48,280
Speaker 2: was hurt. They put a paid UCF it was nationally

1057
01:01:48,320 --> 01:01:51,200
Speaker 2: elite defense on a neutral court. They only lost by

1058
01:01:51,320 --> 01:01:54,400
Speaker 2: three in that game. UCFO can't shoot with seven to

1059
01:01:54,480 --> 01:01:58,040
Speaker 2: twenty four from three. South Dakota State twelve of twenty eight.

1060
01:01:58,920 --> 01:02:03,800
Speaker 2: The next game they went to Kansas State. Kansas State

1061
01:02:03,880 --> 01:02:07,080
Speaker 2: was fourteen to twenty five from three. South Dakota State

1062
01:02:08,680 --> 01:02:11,640
Speaker 2: seven of twenty one. Kansas Tate won by twenty three,

1063
01:02:11,720 --> 01:02:13,439
Speaker 2: and that's a matage. You go fourteen to twenty five

1064
01:02:13,600 --> 01:02:20,240
Speaker 2: from three. So I think that they can hang around,

1065
01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:22,120
Speaker 2: and you know, I have a state. They did blow

1066
01:02:22,120 --> 01:02:24,280
Speaker 2: at everyone, but they didn't face any team like their

1067
01:02:24,320 --> 01:02:26,320
Speaker 2: non conference are so easy. For the most part, they

1068
01:02:26,320 --> 01:02:29,240
Speaker 2: didn't face any team ranked between one hundred and two

1069
01:02:29,320 --> 01:02:33,080
Speaker 2: thirty and ken pok the only out out of conference.

1070
01:02:33,120 --> 01:02:35,440
Speaker 2: The only team in conference was West Virginia, who did

1071
01:02:35,480 --> 01:02:39,640
Speaker 2: hang around in ames. They're the only comparable in the

1072
01:02:39,680 --> 01:02:42,760
Speaker 2: same ballpark as South Dakota State. Why because Westernia made

1073
01:02:42,800 --> 01:02:47,080
Speaker 2: ten threes. So yeah, I know that I was to

1074
01:02:47,120 --> 01:02:52,120
Speaker 2: be playing in front of a partisan crowd here in Omaha,

1075
01:02:52,240 --> 01:02:56,640
Speaker 2: but I think that South Dakota State can keep this

1076
01:02:57,440 --> 01:03:00,480
Speaker 2: within the number now that it's going up a couple points.

1077
01:03:00,720 --> 01:03:02,920
Speaker 2: Keep in mind, Iowa State not only have been getting

1078
01:03:02,920 --> 01:03:08,200
Speaker 2: to three point barrants lately, which juices up your analytical profile,

1079
01:03:08,880 --> 01:03:13,080
Speaker 2: they just won the Big Twelve tournament. And think about

1080
01:03:13,200 --> 01:03:17,320
Speaker 2: what they did there against Baylor, extreme three point bariants,

1081
01:03:17,680 --> 01:03:19,640
Speaker 2: Like they were red hot. Baylor couldn't hit the broad

1082
01:03:19,640 --> 01:03:23,200
Speaker 2: side of the barn, and then Houston punted the second

1083
01:03:23,240 --> 01:03:26,160
Speaker 2: half right like they just like Roberts didn't play and

1084
01:03:26,160 --> 01:03:28,000
Speaker 2: they said, all right, who cares running n skate tournament.

1085
01:03:28,520 --> 01:03:31,160
Speaker 2: So as a result they got two blowout lost blaw

1086
01:03:31,240 --> 01:03:35,760
Speaker 2: wins against top fifteen teams, juicing up their metrics even

1087
01:03:35,800 --> 01:03:38,640
Speaker 2: more so. I think this is the peak, the very

1088
01:03:38,680 --> 01:03:42,560
Speaker 2: peak of the market on Iowa State. I think South

1089
01:03:42,600 --> 01:03:45,400
Speaker 2: dakot to state as a chance to hang around if

1090
01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:47,280
Speaker 2: they can just take care of the ball calibers. What

1091
01:03:47,320 --> 01:03:48,440
Speaker 2: do you say?

1092
01:03:48,480 --> 01:03:52,240
Speaker 1: It is so rewarding to finally be on one of

1093
01:03:52,280 --> 01:03:56,360
Speaker 1: your sneaky suspicion plays here you're trying to talk yourself

1094
01:03:56,360 --> 01:03:58,320
Speaker 1: into it. I thought it was just going to be

1095
01:03:58,360 --> 01:04:01,800
Speaker 1: me and the fine townspeople about looking South Dakota as

1096
01:04:02,000 --> 01:04:05,440
Speaker 1: someone who believed in the Jacks to hang around.

1097
01:04:05,200 --> 01:04:05,680
Speaker 2: In this game.

1098
01:04:06,000 --> 01:04:08,800
Speaker 1: I absolutely think they can hang around. Listen, there's a

1099
01:04:08,840 --> 01:04:09,560
Speaker 1: stat that I love.

1100
01:04:09,680 --> 01:04:12,200
Speaker 2: It's the pace adjust for you to slander Lipsy.

1101
01:04:12,440 --> 01:04:14,760
Speaker 1: I'm not even slander and Lipsey. I don't even need

1102
01:04:14,800 --> 01:04:16,360
Speaker 1: to in this spot. I think he'll play fine. He'll

1103
01:04:16,400 --> 01:04:19,680
Speaker 1: be great on ball. Defensively, he's super elite in that regard,

1104
01:04:19,800 --> 01:04:21,520
Speaker 1: they're not going to need him to score more than

1105
01:04:21,560 --> 01:04:24,040
Speaker 1: ten points in this game. But here's the thing in

1106
01:04:24,120 --> 01:04:28,280
Speaker 1: the opponent adjust metric when playing slower than normal, so

1107
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:31,840
Speaker 1: even slower than they want to. South Dakota State is

1108
01:04:31,840 --> 01:04:34,720
Speaker 1: eleventh nationally in such games. At Iowa State is one

1109
01:04:34,800 --> 01:04:38,120
Speaker 1: hundred and ninety ninth in raw tempo. And the one piece,

1110
01:04:38,440 --> 01:04:40,680
Speaker 1: it's very rare for you to lead me a juicy

1111
01:04:40,920 --> 01:04:44,480
Speaker 1: narrative piece here, but Eric Anderson was on coach OTTs

1112
01:04:44,560 --> 01:04:47,560
Speaker 1: staff at South Dakota State before he left for Iowa State.

1113
01:04:47,640 --> 01:04:51,240
Speaker 1: So if anyone understands how to attack this Iowa State

1114
01:04:51,280 --> 01:04:53,640
Speaker 1: team and put this together, I think this could be

1115
01:04:53,640 --> 01:04:56,120
Speaker 1: the matchup. And you mentioned Zeke Mayo. I'm not just

1116
01:04:56,240 --> 01:04:59,040
Speaker 1: looking at a team that's night in shooting efficiency in

1117
01:04:59,040 --> 01:05:01,120
Speaker 1: the country, but it's bunch of guys who were, you know,

1118
01:05:01,160 --> 01:05:04,320
Speaker 1: just shooting over Summon League defenders. Zeke Mayo is a

1119
01:05:04,360 --> 01:05:06,840
Speaker 1: big guard who can shoot the lights out almost forty

1120
01:05:06,880 --> 01:05:09,560
Speaker 1: two percent from three ninety three percent from the line.

1121
01:05:09,640 --> 01:05:11,640
Speaker 1: So if he can, you know, draw some contact and

1122
01:05:11,680 --> 01:05:13,640
Speaker 1: get to the line seven or eight times, that's a

1123
01:05:13,760 --> 01:05:16,760
Speaker 1: huge boost for them. I just view this as a

1124
01:05:16,800 --> 01:05:20,000
Speaker 1: game that's off by five points. In terms of the

1125
01:05:20,000 --> 01:05:24,400
Speaker 1: points read, I think I was safe from an absolute

1126
01:05:24,720 --> 01:05:27,720
Speaker 1: upset perspective, But sixteen and a half is asking a

1127
01:05:27,720 --> 01:05:30,160
Speaker 1: lot from a team that just went through the Big

1128
01:05:30,200 --> 01:05:33,520
Speaker 1: twelve tournament that very easily could be, you know, looking

1129
01:05:33,520 --> 01:05:36,400
Speaker 1: ahead with Final four aspirations and not taking South Dakoast

1130
01:05:36,480 --> 01:05:38,920
Speaker 1: data seriously as they need to. So I'm going to

1131
01:05:39,000 --> 01:05:40,560
Speaker 1: take the points for sure. Sixteen and a half is

1132
01:05:40,600 --> 01:05:44,280
Speaker 1: too rich, all right.

1133
01:05:44,520 --> 01:05:48,240
Speaker 2: I love it. Let's go Jacks. Let's move on to

1134
01:05:49,160 --> 01:05:53,440
Speaker 2: Tennessee and Rick Barnes, who is not, unlike Dana Hollman,

1135
01:05:53,480 --> 01:05:56,160
Speaker 2: has not had much success against the spread in the tournament.

1136
01:05:57,160 --> 01:05:59,640
Speaker 2: He is a will lead a Violes team that does

1137
01:05:59,640 --> 01:06:02,280
Speaker 2: a two seed here tip off at nine to twenty

1138
01:06:02,280 --> 01:06:06,880
Speaker 2: Eastern on TNT against Saint Peter's the Darling from a

1139
01:06:06,880 --> 01:06:12,880
Speaker 2: few tournaments ago, trying to replicate their magic as a fifteen.

1140
01:06:13,240 --> 01:06:15,840
Speaker 2: Tennessee's a twenty one and a half point favored here

1141
01:06:16,560 --> 01:06:20,320
Speaker 2: with a low total of one thirty. I don't say

1142
01:06:20,360 --> 01:06:24,000
Speaker 2: it with this Peters team. They're they even though it's

1143
01:06:24,000 --> 01:06:27,640
Speaker 2: a new coach and their new players. They only have

1144
01:06:27,640 --> 01:06:29,160
Speaker 2: one player from that team and they only played one

1145
01:06:29,200 --> 01:06:32,120
Speaker 2: minute in the tournament. But trel Reid, this is the

1146
01:06:32,160 --> 01:06:36,360
Speaker 2: worst version of that team that year. Pre tournament they

1147
01:06:36,360 --> 01:06:39,480
Speaker 2: were one eighteenth in overall efficiency one to eighty seventh

1148
01:06:39,480 --> 01:06:43,000
Speaker 2: this year. Offense two fifty nine, three hundred and fifth

1149
01:06:43,000 --> 01:06:47,600
Speaker 2: this year, thirty fourth on defense two years ago, seventy

1150
01:06:47,720 --> 01:06:51,000
Speaker 2: sixth This year they are playing much slower the three

1151
01:06:51,120 --> 01:06:55,040
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty eighth and adjusted tempo. They're gonna press

1152
01:06:55,760 --> 01:07:00,000
Speaker 2: and they're gonna run a very methodical offense. They're gonna

1153
01:07:00,080 --> 01:07:03,680
Speaker 2: try to turn you over. They will Mixton's zone. The

1154
01:07:03,760 --> 01:07:08,479
Speaker 2: problem is Tennessee is elite against the press, ninety ninth

1155
01:07:08,480 --> 01:07:11,640
Speaker 2: percentile the lead against zone, and they don't turn the

1156
01:07:11,640 --> 01:07:15,200
Speaker 2: ball over. They have multiple ball handlers. They also should

1157
01:07:15,240 --> 01:07:17,720
Speaker 2: be able to dominate the offensive glass here. They should

1158
01:07:17,760 --> 01:07:19,160
Speaker 2: be able to get to the line a ton against

1159
01:07:19,160 --> 01:07:23,360
Speaker 2: Saint Peter's aggressive d Saint Peter's their offense is basically

1160
01:07:23,360 --> 01:07:27,160
Speaker 2: a take bad mid range jumpers, which by the way,

1161
01:07:27,680 --> 01:07:31,720
Speaker 2: isn't great against Tennessee renks third and mid range percentage allowed,

1162
01:07:32,080 --> 01:07:33,760
Speaker 2: and then hope to get offensive rebounds or hope to

1163
01:07:33,760 --> 01:07:35,560
Speaker 2: get to the line. Now you can do that a

1164
01:07:35,640 --> 01:07:38,360
Speaker 2: little bit against Tennessee. But it's not like Saint Peter's

1165
01:07:38,440 --> 01:07:42,160
Speaker 2: is good at the line or near the room when

1166
01:07:42,160 --> 01:07:44,320
Speaker 2: they get those offensive rebounds. One of the worst rim

1167
01:07:44,360 --> 01:07:47,560
Speaker 2: offenses in the country. I will say Corey Washington is

1168
01:07:47,560 --> 01:07:49,720
Speaker 2: a stud and he didn't play in seven games this

1169
01:07:49,800 --> 01:07:51,600
Speaker 2: year for Saint Peter's. They went one in six in

1170
01:07:51,640 --> 01:07:55,080
Speaker 2: those games, so their metrics are a bit deflated. But

1171
01:07:55,160 --> 01:07:56,919
Speaker 2: when they step up in class. The season, they lost

1172
01:07:56,920 --> 01:08:02,280
Speaker 2: by eleven on the road at Seaton Hall, nine at Ducane,

1173
01:08:03,080 --> 01:08:07,720
Speaker 2: and thirty one at Rutgers. Meanwhile, Tennessee's nine and zer

1174
01:08:07,760 --> 01:08:11,360
Speaker 2: against teams ranked outside the top one hundred one KEMPOM,

1175
01:08:11,520 --> 01:08:13,959
Speaker 2: they won by an average of twenty four points per game.

1176
01:08:14,440 --> 01:08:17,479
Speaker 2: I just can't see Saint Peter's offense consistently still scoring

1177
01:08:17,520 --> 01:08:23,200
Speaker 2: in the half court against this Tennessee defense, and they

1178
01:08:23,200 --> 01:08:25,640
Speaker 2: don't run their methodical and I've said this all year,

1179
01:08:25,720 --> 01:08:29,880
Speaker 2: Tennessee's transition defense is what you want to attack their percentergy.

1180
01:08:29,880 --> 01:08:33,800
Speaker 2: They're twenty eight percent tile defending in transition, ninety eight

1181
01:08:33,840 --> 01:08:37,360
Speaker 2: percent in the half court. If Dalton connect is on one,

1182
01:08:37,680 --> 01:08:40,920
Speaker 2: I think this gets ugly quick. I can't lay this

1183
01:08:41,040 --> 01:08:45,439
Speaker 2: number with this low of a total, especially if Saint

1184
01:08:45,439 --> 01:08:49,920
Speaker 2: Peter's gets gets a friendly whistle. But I certainly would

1185
01:08:50,000 --> 01:08:54,880
Speaker 2: lean Tennessee's way and Saint Peter's. Their offensive numbers I

1186
01:08:54,880 --> 01:08:57,960
Speaker 2: just told you outside the top three hundred in overall

1187
01:08:58,040 --> 01:09:01,400
Speaker 2: justed efficiency. Their numbers get even worse when you just

1188
01:09:01,560 --> 01:09:06,719
Speaker 2: isolate their offense against man de man. They're three hundred

1189
01:09:06,720 --> 01:09:10,000
Speaker 2: and fifty first in points per possession against man defense.

1190
01:09:10,560 --> 01:09:12,840
Speaker 2: Well that's all they're going to see against Tennessee. That

1191
01:09:13,000 --> 01:09:16,400
Speaker 2: is bad. I just can't see them scoring enough here.

1192
01:09:17,000 --> 01:09:20,160
Speaker 2: I think this is a Tennessee route. Any any of

1193
01:09:20,200 --> 01:09:21,400
Speaker 2: you guys have any thoughts on this game?

1194
01:09:22,240 --> 01:09:24,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, you mentioned it. With the schedule, every time Saint

1195
01:09:24,800 --> 01:09:27,479
Speaker 3: Peter's has played a team that is going to try

1196
01:09:27,520 --> 01:09:31,200
Speaker 3: to defend them and match them defensively, they struggled you

1197
01:09:31,280 --> 01:09:35,040
Speaker 3: Mass Lil Rutgers, Doucane. Tennessee coming off the loss should

1198
01:09:35,080 --> 01:09:37,479
Speaker 3: be chomping at the bit. They're gonna be able to

1199
01:09:37,520 --> 01:09:40,200
Speaker 3: score Ziggler this year didn't have them last year. A

1200
01:09:40,240 --> 01:09:43,600
Speaker 3: big difference. It's Tennessee for me. Numbers high in a

1201
01:09:43,600 --> 01:09:45,559
Speaker 3: low scoring game with a slow pace, So I agree

1202
01:09:45,560 --> 01:09:48,240
Speaker 3: with you there, But I'm on this fALS team Saint

1203
01:09:48,240 --> 01:09:51,880
Speaker 3: Peter's not getting the upset here. Certainly, Iowa State a

1204
01:09:51,960 --> 01:09:54,839
Speaker 3: more live underdog as two seed in Tennessee.

1205
01:09:56,360 --> 01:10:00,040
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to a game with a

1206
01:10:00,040 --> 01:10:04,120
Speaker 2: a lot of injurgue because there's someone injury uncertainty with

1207
01:10:04,280 --> 01:10:10,679
Speaker 2: a newly found potential high major Cinderell in NC State,

1208
01:10:11,160 --> 01:10:13,599
Speaker 2: which made a magical run in the a SEC Tournament.

1209
01:10:13,760 --> 01:10:16,200
Speaker 2: They will now take on Texas Tech nine to forty

1210
01:10:16,200 --> 01:10:21,360
Speaker 2: Eastern on CBS. Texas Tech is a five and a

1211
01:10:21,400 --> 01:10:28,200
Speaker 2: half ish point favorite. This game will be played in Pittsburgh.

1212
01:10:28,240 --> 01:10:30,599
Speaker 2: The thing for me here is it's very hard for

1213
01:10:30,640 --> 01:10:34,600
Speaker 2: me to handicap this game because of the injury uncertainty

1214
01:10:34,960 --> 01:10:39,120
Speaker 2: with Texas Tech. Believe it or not, if you look

1215
01:10:39,479 --> 01:10:43,040
Speaker 2: for Evan Maya, if you look at all of the

1216
01:10:43,160 --> 01:10:45,640
Speaker 2: five man rotations that played together for at least one

1217
01:10:45,680 --> 01:10:52,519
Speaker 2: hundred possessions, Texas Tech has one that has the highest

1218
01:10:52,640 --> 01:10:59,599
Speaker 2: overall adjusted offensive efficiency and it's Isaac's McMillan, Toussaint Warren,

1219
01:10:59,680 --> 01:11:04,879
Speaker 2: Washington and Williams. Well, we don't know how healthy Washington

1220
01:11:04,880 --> 01:11:09,120
Speaker 2: and Williams are going to be, and Washington is obviously

1221
01:11:09,520 --> 01:11:13,519
Speaker 2: super important, especially against DJ Burns. Who's just a monster

1222
01:11:13,600 --> 01:11:18,120
Speaker 2: on the block. His passing ability is great. NC State

1223
01:11:18,600 --> 01:11:21,880
Speaker 2: does usually want to press you, although they stop doing

1224
01:11:21,880 --> 01:11:24,320
Speaker 2: that in the Agency Tournament. Maybe that's because they're playing

1225
01:11:24,320 --> 01:11:26,400
Speaker 2: five games or five days, but they weren't even doing

1226
01:11:26,479 --> 01:11:28,200
Speaker 2: it as much early on. You don't want to press

1227
01:11:28,920 --> 01:11:32,760
Speaker 2: Texas Tech elite press offense, ball handers all over. So

1228
01:11:32,760 --> 01:11:36,559
Speaker 2: I'm curious to see how they play this defensively. I

1229
01:11:36,600 --> 01:11:39,080
Speaker 2: also want to see what NC State has left in

1230
01:11:39,120 --> 01:11:43,720
Speaker 2: the tank emotionally physically after that run. But I just

1231
01:11:43,720 --> 01:11:46,839
Speaker 2: can't do anything with this game without knowing how healthy

1232
01:11:46,880 --> 01:11:49,160
Speaker 2: Tech is. Random.

1233
01:11:49,200 --> 01:11:53,720
Speaker 3: What you got here, Washington, I think is going to

1234
01:11:53,720 --> 01:11:57,479
Speaker 3: play this is all projection. I don't know if Williams plays.

1235
01:11:57,479 --> 01:12:00,360
Speaker 3: He was in a boot noticed in that last scheme.

1236
01:12:00,880 --> 01:12:05,400
Speaker 3: So if Washington goes stuck, I will go with Texas Tech.

1237
01:12:05,680 --> 01:12:08,479
Speaker 3: I will go with the defense. With the free throw shooting,

1238
01:12:08,960 --> 01:12:11,360
Speaker 3: and guys, NC State's got to come back down to

1239
01:12:11,400 --> 01:12:15,160
Speaker 3: earth with the three pointers. I mean, they were scalding hot,

1240
01:12:15,320 --> 01:12:18,320
Speaker 3: white hot in the ACC Tournament. They were not against

1241
01:12:18,400 --> 01:12:22,120
Speaker 3: Virginia three of seventeen, but we know Virginia's indemick on offense.

1242
01:12:22,200 --> 01:12:24,720
Speaker 3: That's the situation. I think Texas Tech is a better team.

1243
01:12:24,760 --> 01:12:27,240
Speaker 3: I need Washington otherwise it's to stay away from me.

1244
01:12:27,280 --> 01:12:29,559
Speaker 3: But if I get him, even tho I don't get Williams,

1245
01:12:29,800 --> 01:12:30,760
Speaker 3: I'll take Texas Tech.

1246
01:12:31,800 --> 01:12:33,880
Speaker 2: Well. They went three of seventeen, but the one they

1247
01:12:33,960 --> 01:12:37,280
Speaker 2: hit was a banked in three that kept our season alive.

1248
01:12:38,680 --> 01:12:42,720
Speaker 2: Unbelievable and the ACC still ended up getting both those

1249
01:12:42,720 --> 01:12:46,320
Speaker 2: teams in. All right, Yeah, Texas Tech, if they're fully healthy,

1250
01:12:46,439 --> 01:12:49,840
Speaker 2: interesting team, could certainly beat in Kentucky in the second round.

1251
01:12:50,400 --> 01:12:52,320
Speaker 2: Couldn't make a deep run, but a lot of it's

1252
01:12:52,360 --> 01:12:57,200
Speaker 2: gonna come down to health, as it will with many

1253
01:12:57,240 --> 01:13:04,280
Speaker 2: teams in that region. But let's move on to the

1254
01:13:04,360 --> 01:13:10,320
Speaker 2: pen ultimate game of the Thursday's slate between Samford and

1255
01:13:10,479 --> 01:13:15,800
Speaker 2: Kansas nine to fifty five Eastern on TBS. It's gonna

1256
01:13:15,800 --> 01:13:20,479
Speaker 2: be played in Salt Lake City, Utah. Altitude depth huge

1257
01:13:20,479 --> 01:13:22,439
Speaker 2: depth advantage for Sanford, one of the deepest teams in

1258
01:13:22,479 --> 01:13:25,200
Speaker 2: the country. You go to twelve deep. Could that matter

1259
01:13:25,439 --> 01:13:28,240
Speaker 2: against the Kansas team that doesn't have a lot of depth?

1260
01:13:28,240 --> 01:13:30,559
Speaker 2: And as injury questions, Kevin mccullor, how healthy is he

1261
01:13:30,600 --> 01:13:33,240
Speaker 2: gonna beate Hunter Dickinson, how healthy is he going to

1262
01:13:33,280 --> 01:13:37,400
Speaker 2: be at full strength. I would own one hundred Kansas

1263
01:13:37,439 --> 01:13:41,320
Speaker 2: here because at Sanford they played Bucky ball, fast paced,

1264
01:13:41,320 --> 01:13:44,559
Speaker 2: they pressed, you want to turn you over, extended zone

1265
01:13:44,600 --> 01:13:49,400
Speaker 2: pressure with press, you don't want to zone Kansas. Kansas

1266
01:13:49,479 --> 01:13:52,400
Speaker 2: is pressed. Offensive numbers are bad this year, which is interesting,

1267
01:13:53,280 --> 01:13:56,599
Speaker 2: but they have a lot of ball handlers. Sanford doesn't

1268
01:13:56,600 --> 01:13:59,080
Speaker 2: have anyone to stop Dickinson and lost by fifty to

1269
01:13:59,120 --> 01:14:03,880
Speaker 2: Purdue earlier in the season, and they allow as many

1270
01:14:03,880 --> 01:14:06,280
Speaker 2: transition opportunities as any team in the country. Kansas is

1271
01:14:06,320 --> 01:14:11,240
Speaker 2: a transition juggernaut. So I think fast paced game in

1272
01:14:11,320 --> 01:14:14,599
Speaker 2: the transition battle that's spells disaster for Sanford. But the

1273
01:14:14,600 --> 01:14:19,040
Speaker 2: injury uncertainty, the depth questions, and altitude certainly a lot

1274
01:14:19,080 --> 01:14:21,360
Speaker 2: of uncertainty. Or if you were looking to pick an

1275
01:14:21,439 --> 01:14:27,600
Speaker 2: underdog with the Sanford Bulldogs, calabresee, you are headed in

1276
01:14:27,640 --> 01:14:30,160
Speaker 2: that direction. You like Sanford, Yeah, I'm doing it.

1277
01:14:30,439 --> 01:14:33,080
Speaker 1: They play fast, you mentioned it, they force turnovers, they're

1278
01:14:33,200 --> 01:14:37,320
Speaker 1: risk takers on defense. I understand that because of the

1279
01:14:37,320 --> 01:14:39,840
Speaker 1: talent differential that they need to do that to a

1280
01:14:39,840 --> 01:14:43,160
Speaker 1: certain degree, but also I think in terms of the

1281
01:14:43,240 --> 01:14:46,840
Speaker 1: draw they play a lot of zone. I'm not necessarily

1282
01:14:46,920 --> 01:14:49,320
Speaker 1: sure because of the health injuries. If mccullor's not one

1283
01:14:49,400 --> 01:14:52,479
Speaker 1: hundred percent, Does Kansas outside of Furfey have the knockdown

1284
01:14:52,479 --> 01:14:54,960
Speaker 1: shooters We talked about this early in the season. Where

1285
01:14:54,960 --> 01:14:57,120
Speaker 1: are the shooters to be able to take advantage of that?

1286
01:14:58,000 --> 01:14:59,879
Speaker 1: I think this is a pretty good draw for Sanford.

1287
01:15:00,600 --> 01:15:03,760
Speaker 1: Listen defensively on the inside, if Dickinson does try to

1288
01:15:03,760 --> 01:15:06,000
Speaker 1: go a core A Corps is a pivotal man in

1289
01:15:06,000 --> 01:15:08,640
Speaker 1: the middle for the Bulldogs. He's super long, athletic on

1290
01:15:08,680 --> 01:15:11,719
Speaker 1: the defensive end, and he works really well with Ryland

1291
01:15:11,760 --> 01:15:14,559
Speaker 1: Jones in ball screen situations. He's super efficient when he

1292
01:15:14,560 --> 01:15:17,040
Speaker 1: does shoot the ball. So it's rare for a mid

1293
01:15:17,080 --> 01:15:20,120
Speaker 1: major truly to have a big who's as talented and

1294
01:15:20,200 --> 01:15:23,599
Speaker 1: versatile as he is. And from our own Brandon Anderson

1295
01:15:23,600 --> 01:15:25,240
Speaker 1: here at the Action Network. In the last two decades,

1296
01:15:25,320 --> 01:15:28,360
Speaker 1: Kansas under self, he's been upset by the five, six

1297
01:15:28,479 --> 01:15:30,719
Speaker 1: to seven, the eight, the nine to ten, eleven, thirteen,

1298
01:15:30,800 --> 01:15:34,879
Speaker 1: and fourteen seeds, including six upset losses on opening weekend,

1299
01:15:35,040 --> 01:15:37,120
Speaker 1: so this would not be a first for him. He's

1300
01:15:37,160 --> 01:15:41,040
Speaker 1: clearly a great coach. He's you know, won multiple national championships.

1301
01:15:41,479 --> 01:15:44,640
Speaker 1: He has proven it when he needs to get his

1302
01:15:44,680 --> 01:15:47,200
Speaker 1: teams turned around to a certain degree. But this is

1303
01:15:47,320 --> 01:15:50,760
Speaker 1: the transfer portal era. There's just something weird going on

1304
01:15:50,880 --> 01:15:53,120
Speaker 1: with this team. For the first time. They not only

1305
01:15:53,200 --> 01:15:54,840
Speaker 1: did they not win, but they weren't even in it

1306
01:15:55,040 --> 01:15:57,320
Speaker 1: down the stretch of the Big twelve race. Then then

1307
01:15:57,240 --> 01:15:59,799
Speaker 1: they get into the tournament, they're ended up sitting guys,

1308
01:16:00,080 --> 01:16:03,280
Speaker 1: so they just roll over for Cincinnati. I'm not convinced

1309
01:16:03,280 --> 01:16:04,640
Speaker 1: they're just going to flip a switch and we're going

1310
01:16:04,680 --> 01:16:06,120
Speaker 1: to see that team from the beginning of the year

1311
01:16:06,280 --> 01:16:08,920
Speaker 1: that had so many quality top ten wins that look

1312
01:16:09,040 --> 01:16:11,320
Speaker 1: so great. Now they beat Yukon, I think that team

1313
01:16:11,400 --> 01:16:13,680
Speaker 1: is far gone in the rear view mirror. So I'm

1314
01:16:13,720 --> 01:16:15,840
Speaker 1: going to take a Samford team that, yeah, they need

1315
01:16:15,880 --> 01:16:18,200
Speaker 1: a lot of things to go right, but they have

1316
01:16:18,560 --> 01:16:20,840
Speaker 1: eight of their top twelve rotational guys all shoot at

1317
01:16:20,920 --> 01:16:22,639
Speaker 1: least thirty eight percent from three.

1318
01:16:23,040 --> 01:16:23,559
Speaker 2: To me, that.

1319
01:16:23,560 --> 01:16:26,320
Speaker 1: Profiles as a giant killer with the way that they play,

1320
01:16:26,720 --> 01:16:28,680
Speaker 1: and I think because of their depth, it's going to

1321
01:16:28,720 --> 01:16:31,679
Speaker 1: make a difference in terms of, you know, the overall

1322
01:16:31,720 --> 01:16:34,240
Speaker 1: exhaustion level for a team. Mike Kansas, who's a little

1323
01:16:34,240 --> 01:16:36,960
Speaker 1: bit more shallow on their bench. I like Sanford here

1324
01:16:36,960 --> 01:16:39,200
Speaker 1: to win out right, all right.

1325
01:16:39,120 --> 01:16:42,760
Speaker 2: And finally let's finish things up with the last tip.

1326
01:16:42,800 --> 01:16:46,639
Speaker 2: On Thursday night, ten five Eastern on True TV, Drake

1327
01:16:46,920 --> 01:16:50,599
Speaker 2: one one and a half point favorite against Washington State.

1328
01:16:51,680 --> 01:16:55,400
Speaker 2: Another case of a double digit seed being a favorite

1329
01:16:55,400 --> 01:16:59,439
Speaker 2: here with Drake as the ten Washington State as the

1330
01:16:59,439 --> 01:17:03,280
Speaker 2: seven to one thirty eight and a half. I like

1331
01:17:03,400 --> 01:17:08,040
Speaker 2: Drake here. I look, there's a couple of intangible factors

1332
01:17:08,040 --> 01:17:10,439
Speaker 2: here that I think are working in their favor. One,

1333
01:17:10,600 --> 01:17:16,360
Speaker 2: this game's in Omaha, a little proud advantage less travel

1334
01:17:17,560 --> 01:17:21,600
Speaker 2: to the experience edge for this Drake team that was

1335
01:17:21,640 --> 01:17:24,679
Speaker 2: here in the tournament last year was up with eight

1336
01:17:24,920 --> 01:17:27,880
Speaker 2: by eight with five to go. Sadly for me and

1337
01:17:27,920 --> 01:17:30,080
Speaker 2: anyone else who bet Drake, they blew that lead to Miami,

1338
01:17:30,080 --> 01:17:33,880
Speaker 2: who would then go on to the Final four. I

1339
01:17:33,920 --> 01:17:36,519
Speaker 2: think I have the best player in the court, and

1340
01:17:36,600 --> 01:17:40,240
Speaker 2: Debrees Brody can stay on the court in this matchup.

1341
01:17:41,040 --> 01:17:44,559
Speaker 2: And you know, Washington State doesn't have a really great

1342
01:17:44,640 --> 01:17:50,320
Speaker 2: pick and roll offense, and they will throw some zone

1343
01:17:50,360 --> 01:17:53,679
Speaker 2: out there, but I don't think that's a great idea

1344
01:17:53,680 --> 01:17:56,120
Speaker 2: against Drake. Even though Drake is grated out much better

1345
01:17:56,120 --> 01:17:59,720
Speaker 2: against Man. I just think from an x's and o's

1346
01:18:00,080 --> 01:18:05,519
Speaker 2: active Drake matches up pretty well. I also think Washington

1347
01:18:05,600 --> 01:18:08,439
Speaker 2: State a lot of respect for both of these coaches,

1348
01:18:09,800 --> 01:18:14,320
Speaker 2: but I think that Washington State kind of peaked earlier

1349
01:18:14,360 --> 01:18:19,840
Speaker 2: in the season, and it might hardly be because Miles Rice

1350
01:18:19,920 --> 01:18:22,000
Speaker 2: might have hit a little bit of a wall and

1351
01:18:22,080 --> 01:18:25,920
Speaker 2: his production is kind of declined. But I think Drake

1352
01:18:27,560 --> 01:18:30,880
Speaker 2: brits this one out and up pulls it off over

1353
01:18:31,040 --> 01:18:35,200
Speaker 2: Washington State is a small favorite. I like the Bulldogs. Calabrese,

1354
01:18:35,240 --> 01:18:37,200
Speaker 2: you agree, Yeah, I'm with you here.

1355
01:18:37,360 --> 01:18:41,040
Speaker 1: Debriz is a stud and what's nice is he's proven

1356
01:18:41,080 --> 01:18:43,400
Speaker 1: throughout the season that he'll play his best basketball when

1357
01:18:43,400 --> 01:18:44,920
Speaker 1: they're playing the best teams. When you look at the

1358
01:18:44,960 --> 01:18:47,519
Speaker 1: three teams that are in this field that they played against,

1359
01:18:47,520 --> 01:18:50,000
Speaker 1: plus the three games against Indiana State, who were the

1360
01:18:50,080 --> 01:18:52,400
Speaker 1: highest net team to ever be left out of March Madness,

1361
01:18:52,479 --> 01:18:54,519
Speaker 1: he averaged on his twenty seven points per game. Now,

1362
01:18:54,560 --> 01:18:57,120
Speaker 1: their defense isn't great. It's only seventy fifth and Ken Palm,

1363
01:18:57,120 --> 01:18:59,599
Speaker 1: and they give up way too many shots around the hoop.

1364
01:19:00,040 --> 01:19:02,880
Speaker 1: They're two point percentage defense is two hundred and forty

1365
01:19:02,880 --> 01:19:06,120
Speaker 1: six in the country. But when they do get stops

1366
01:19:06,280 --> 01:19:09,479
Speaker 1: and teams miss their shots, they're seventh nationally in defensive

1367
01:19:09,479 --> 01:19:10,440
Speaker 1: rebounding percentage.

1368
01:19:10,479 --> 01:19:11,360
Speaker 2: So I really like that.

1369
01:19:11,280 --> 01:19:14,400
Speaker 1: From a mid major. In terms of the opponent adust metric.

1370
01:19:14,439 --> 01:19:17,320
Speaker 1: When they're playing up, playing high quality opponents, they're twenty

1371
01:19:17,320 --> 01:19:19,559
Speaker 1: fourth in terms of their performance in the entire country.

1372
01:19:20,040 --> 01:19:21,599
Speaker 1: And they come in hot. You know, they won ten

1373
01:19:21,600 --> 01:19:24,280
Speaker 1: of eleven straight up, that includes knocking off Indiana State

1374
01:19:24,320 --> 01:19:26,639
Speaker 1: in Arch Madness. They do it with lots of big

1375
01:19:26,760 --> 01:19:28,559
Speaker 1: kill shot runs. The ten to zero runs are better.

1376
01:19:28,600 --> 01:19:31,360
Speaker 1: They have twenty four on the season. And then we're

1377
01:19:31,439 --> 01:19:34,000
Speaker 1: talking a lot about defrees, but a ten wright also

1378
01:19:34,040 --> 01:19:36,719
Speaker 1: has the potential to go off from long range. If

1379
01:19:36,800 --> 01:19:39,400
Speaker 1: they're doubling degrees and they're working the ball around the perimeter,

1380
01:19:39,640 --> 01:19:43,000
Speaker 1: he's a sharpshooter. He has three or more triples in

1381
01:19:43,040 --> 01:19:44,640
Speaker 1: four of his last nine games. I think he's the

1382
01:19:44,640 --> 01:19:46,040
Speaker 1: perfect compliment to degrees.

1383
01:19:46,240 --> 01:19:46,800
Speaker 2: And I agree.

1384
01:19:46,800 --> 01:19:47,920
Speaker 1: I think there's going to be a lot of home

1385
01:19:47,920 --> 01:19:50,320
Speaker 1: cook and a lot of home fans there less than

1386
01:19:50,320 --> 01:19:53,920
Speaker 1: two hours from Des Moines to Omaha.

1387
01:19:54,120 --> 01:19:57,080
Speaker 2: Randall. Any final thoughts in any of the games that

1388
01:19:57,080 --> 01:19:59,599
Speaker 2: we mentioned or anything else you want to get out

1389
01:19:59,600 --> 01:20:01,000
Speaker 2: there before where we sign off here.

1390
01:20:01,439 --> 01:20:03,559
Speaker 3: Yeah, two things. I'm on the other side of this one.

1391
01:20:03,600 --> 01:20:05,599
Speaker 1: Guys to really interesting.

1392
01:20:06,360 --> 01:20:08,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Drake is a team that when they went

1393
01:20:08,720 --> 01:20:10,800
Speaker 3: sixteen to oh and sixteen zero against the spread, that

1394
01:20:10,880 --> 01:20:13,680
Speaker 3: was a fun year, a lucrative year, mister Calbury's. But

1395
01:20:13,760 --> 01:20:16,320
Speaker 3: this one I'm against two eighty five and non conference

1396
01:20:16,360 --> 01:20:20,000
Speaker 3: strength to schedule. Dj Wilkins, Roman Penn. Big difference from

1397
01:20:20,120 --> 01:20:23,559
Speaker 3: last year's team that battled Miami. I think Washington State

1398
01:20:23,600 --> 01:20:25,280
Speaker 3: is up for the task. You know they can shoot

1399
01:20:25,320 --> 01:20:27,840
Speaker 3: it from the outside. I agree with Rice Stuck. He

1400
01:20:27,880 --> 01:20:29,400
Speaker 3: got worn down, but he had a little bit of

1401
01:20:29,439 --> 01:20:32,280
Speaker 3: time now to get right. I think they pull this

1402
01:20:32,360 --> 01:20:35,720
Speaker 3: one out Washington State. It's very close. But I'm not

1403
01:20:35,760 --> 01:20:37,840
Speaker 3: on Drake to go through here. They look great in

1404
01:20:37,880 --> 01:20:40,000
Speaker 3: the Missouri Valley, but I want to see them here

1405
01:20:40,000 --> 01:20:42,960
Speaker 3: against a good Washington State defense that is longer and

1406
01:20:43,040 --> 01:20:45,479
Speaker 3: tougher than I think they're used to. Other one guys,

1407
01:20:45,520 --> 01:20:47,800
Speaker 3: I will co sign on McNeice. I will co sign

1408
01:20:47,880 --> 01:20:52,559
Speaker 3: on them going against Gonzaga. Love everything about them, their defense,

1409
01:20:52,680 --> 01:20:56,360
Speaker 3: the pressure will wade and guys, let's not forget then

1410
01:20:56,400 --> 01:20:58,879
Speaker 3: in the non conference. Yes, they did play. Some teams

1411
01:20:59,000 --> 01:21:02,639
Speaker 3: it stuck said, are looking for name changes. But they

1412
01:21:02,680 --> 01:21:07,599
Speaker 3: had three massive road wins VCU away by ten, Texas

1413
01:21:07,600 --> 01:21:11,479
Speaker 3: stayed on a neutral by eleven, they beat a Michigan

1414
01:21:11,520 --> 01:21:14,320
Speaker 3: of course, scoring a seven points by eleven, and finally

1415
01:21:14,560 --> 01:21:17,840
Speaker 3: UAB who's in the tournament, a robust twenty one point

1416
01:21:17,920 --> 01:21:20,519
Speaker 3: win on the road. I like McNeice to win out right, guys,

1417
01:21:20,520 --> 01:21:22,759
Speaker 3: But great job, great late games on Thursday.

1418
01:21:23,600 --> 01:21:29,439
Speaker 2: By the way, Gonzaga, we've seen their resurgence and everyone

1419
01:21:29,600 --> 01:21:34,960
Speaker 2: jumping back on them since February first. The shooting thirty

1420
01:21:35,080 --> 01:21:39,439
Speaker 2: nine point seven percent from three. They were thirty three

1421
01:21:39,479 --> 01:21:43,880
Speaker 2: and a half percent prior to February first. Definitely shooting

1422
01:21:43,880 --> 01:21:48,160
Speaker 2: above their heads. Don't be surprised to have an off shooting.

1423
01:21:48,000 --> 01:21:51,680
Speaker 3: Night, guys, Really really quick, really quick quiz for you.

1424
01:21:52,200 --> 01:21:54,800
Speaker 3: Last time Mark Few did not get out of the

1425
01:21:54,800 --> 01:21:56,680
Speaker 3: first round. Who beat him?

1426
01:21:58,479 --> 01:21:59,680
Speaker 2: I think he's made it out of the first round

1427
01:21:59,720 --> 01:22:01,040
Speaker 2: fifty straight times.

1428
01:22:01,280 --> 01:22:03,680
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, it's a famous player, a team that was

1429
01:22:03,760 --> 01:22:06,120
Speaker 3: led by a famous player two thousand and eight, and

1430
01:22:08,960 --> 01:22:09,880
Speaker 3: it is well done.

1431
01:22:10,520 --> 01:22:13,200
Speaker 2: That was a high scoring game. I think it was

1432
01:22:13,240 --> 01:22:16,320
Speaker 2: a fun game. Steph Curry that year you already take

1433
01:22:17,400 --> 01:22:19,000
Speaker 2: forty five or something in that game.

1434
01:22:19,600 --> 01:22:21,120
Speaker 1: He went nuts in the second half of that game.

1435
01:22:21,120 --> 01:22:21,799
Speaker 1: It was incredible.

1436
01:22:22,080 --> 01:22:26,320
Speaker 2: Ye all right, good stuff. We will be recording the

1437
01:22:26,520 --> 01:22:31,120
Speaker 2: Friday myself, Mike cal Greas and Greg Wadell covering every

1438
01:22:31,120 --> 01:22:34,880
Speaker 2: game on Friday, which should be out shortly after this one.

1439
01:22:35,320 --> 01:22:36,960
Speaker 2: Might already be out wire listens to make sure you

1440
01:22:37,040 --> 01:22:42,680
Speaker 2: check that out. Happy madness to everybody, Merry Christmas, Happy holidays,

1441
01:22:43,240 --> 01:22:46,559
Speaker 2: Good luck filling out your brackets, good luck on all

1442
01:22:46,600 --> 01:22:51,680
Speaker 2: of your bets and in any contests that you enter pools.

1443
01:22:52,000 --> 01:22:54,640
Speaker 2: It's a beautiful time of the year for betters and

1444
01:22:54,760 --> 01:22:57,439
Speaker 2: college basketball fans alike. But thanks for tuning in. Thanks

1445
01:22:57,520 --> 01:22:59,120
Speaker 2: to Mike, Mike for joining me, thanks to a producer

1446
01:22:59,120 --> 01:23:00,960
Speaker 2: from the back end let's poorly. Thanks to all of

1447
01:23:01,000 --> 01:23:03,880
Speaker 2: you again for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe on subcribe, tobscribe,

1448
01:23:03,880 --> 01:23:06,840
Speaker 2: tell a friend, tolle enemy you a five star review.

1449
01:23:06,880 --> 01:23:09,880
Speaker 2: I'll do some giveaways next week. That a bunch last

1450
01:23:09,880 --> 01:23:12,639
Speaker 2: week does really help us out. Say whatever, Just leave

1451
01:23:12,680 --> 01:23:19,400
Speaker 2: five star review and we will be back for many

1452
01:23:19,479 --> 01:23:23,559
Speaker 2: BBOC Live shows ten Thirday and Eastern on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

1453
01:23:24,040 --> 01:23:26,280
Speaker 2: Make sure you check those out, but thanks for tuning

1454
01:23:26,320 --> 01:23:43,439
Speaker 2: in and enjoy the man Next Cheers Action Network reminds

1455
01:23:43,479 --> 01:23:47,320
Speaker 2: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

1456
01:23:47,360 --> 01:23:50,519
Speaker 2: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

1457
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