1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. 3 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:23,439 Speaker 3: I'm Jill Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway. 4 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 4: Tracy, we're in London. 5 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:26,640 Speaker 3: Yes, how do you like it? 6 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:28,480 Speaker 4: I love it so far. I'm having a great time. 7 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 5: You know what, I've realized I always make the mistake. 8 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:32,479 Speaker 5: So I lived in London for a long time. I 9 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 5: went to university here, I met my husband here, and 10 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 5: I stayed here for like over a decade. But I 11 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 5: realized whenever I go back, I always make the mistake 12 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:44,160 Speaker 5: of doing it on that one glorious spring day where 13 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 5: the temperature is like seventy five fahrenheit, like twenty one 14 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:52,200 Speaker 5: celsias and everything's blooming in central London and it's sunny 15 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 5: and it's beautiful, and I think, wait, why did I leave? 16 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 4: But then the next day it's great. 17 00:00:57,720 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, okay, there is that, But I really I need 18 00:00:59,880 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 5: to come back in like January when it's dark at 19 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 5: three or four pm and remind myself that there are 20 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:07,479 Speaker 5: in fact some downsides of living here. 21 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 3: But it is very nice to be back for a visits. 22 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 2: This is actually my first time being in the city, 23 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 2: right because I haven't really stated this part of the 24 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:15,319 Speaker 2: city before. 25 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 4: It's really nice, all the history and everything. 26 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 2: Despite being here, we have no choice but to continue 27 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 2: covering various repercussions, fallouts, updates, ongoing developments in the trade 28 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 2: war or whatever we're calling it, the tariff whatever. 29 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 5: You would rather be thinking of actual war history and 30 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 5: going to the Imperial War Museum or something like that. 31 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 2: On my one free day here, I did the boomer 32 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 2: thing and I went to the Imperial War Museum, and 33 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 2: I saw a lot of things that I've only read 34 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 2: about referenced in books anyway, all kinds of dimensions in 35 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 2: the trade tensions and everything. But one thing that's going 36 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 2: on is big impact on commodity markets. We've seen the 37 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 2: price of oil plunge as recession fears get priced in. 38 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 2: And there was this headline in the New Times about 39 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 2: China halting export of rare earth metals as a retaliation, 40 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 2: and I just have to say, I've been reading about 41 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,799 Speaker 2: China halting exports of rare earth metals and retaliation for 42 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 2: my entire life. It never seems to matter, It never 43 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 2: really seems to be a thing, but it always is 44 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 2: a really scary headline. 45 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 6: But I've never. 46 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 2: Actually, nothing, as far as I ever call, ever gets 47 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:27,359 Speaker 2: shut down or grinds to from these supposed export restrictions. 48 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 5: This is one of the greatest branding exercises of all time. 49 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 5: It's because it has the word rare in the title. 50 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 5: Everyone can really easily apparently make the case that these 51 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:38,680 Speaker 5: are rare and you really need to snap them up 52 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 5: get the exposure before China starts limiting exports and we 53 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 5: all have to pay through the nose for these things. 54 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 3: But yeah, it's never happened. And the rare as I. 55 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:49,240 Speaker 5: Don't know if we've ever discussed on this show, but 56 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:51,919 Speaker 5: certainly other people have discussed it at various points in time. 57 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 5: The rare actually isn't that rare. 58 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:56,799 Speaker 3: It turns out there's a lot of them out there. 59 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 5: It's just no one really likes getting them out of 60 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 5: the ground that much. 61 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 2: So since we're here in London, we can never talk 62 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:07,240 Speaker 2: to him enough about commodity things, and because their commodity 63 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 2: thing is going on, I'm thrilled to be in person 64 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:15,519 Speaker 2: with our colleague Bloomberg Opinion scribe Javier Blass and knows 65 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 2: everything about all things commodities. Javier, can you just rent 66 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 2: for a couple of minutes about reverts. I'm not even 67 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 2: gonna ask you a question. 68 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 4: You just go on a. 69 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 2: Rant about headlines about China limiting earth experts. 70 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:30,800 Speaker 7: Where deal go go, Joe Tracy, thank you for having me. 71 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 7: You have been listening to these headlines and getting very 72 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 7: scary out. 73 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 6: There's gonna be a shortage. 74 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 7: Of Red ad All for a loan period of my 75 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 7: professional life, which is beginning to be more than twenty 76 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 7: five years, and it's a song gray Head. To prove it, 77 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 7: I have to deal with editors will come to me 78 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 7: and say, rival publication is saying xyzat Red Earth Metals panic. 79 00:03:57,120 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 4: No, it's great for clicks, So I get why editors. 80 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 7: Like it, and then my editors will say, should we'll 81 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 7: be writing something about it? And my default answer has 82 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 7: been no. There is not going to be a shortage, 83 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 7: and if there is a shortage, the consequences are not 84 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 7: going to be nearly as material as people think that 85 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 7: they're going to be. So a couple of numbers, Okay, 86 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:21,040 Speaker 7: The United States imported last year in twenty twenty four, 87 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:26,039 Speaker 7: according to US government data, a grand total of give 88 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 7: Me the Theme Music one hundred and seventy million dollars 89 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 7: of metals, not a billion million, one hundred and seventy million. 90 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 7: I'm pretty sure that the United States imported more olive 91 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 7: oil from Spain. 92 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 3: I like that olive oil is your baseline. That's that's 93 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 3: very value. 94 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 6: And how much is that? 95 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:48,920 Speaker 7: As the second number we are going here, how much 96 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:52,679 Speaker 7: is one hundred and seventy million? You compare that to 97 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 7: total trade between the United States and China that is 98 00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:01,599 Speaker 7: zero point zero three percent, So it's not a lot. 99 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 6: And the United States school phase say at. 100 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 7: Ten times increase in the price of rare earth metals 101 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:13,479 Speaker 7: and I still will have no impact whatsoever on the 102 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 7: kind of the American economy or the global economy. And 103 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 7: then what really drives me mad is that you are 104 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:23,719 Speaker 7: writing about rare earth metals. Look, they are important, and 105 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 7: they obviously for some very niche applications you really need 106 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 7: rare earth metals, but prices could go higher and those 107 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:36,040 Speaker 7: applications will just pay the price. But typically writer like myself, 108 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:38,679 Speaker 7: you want to sex up a bit of the story. 109 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 7: You will say rare earth metals critical for the weapons industry, 110 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 7: for missiles and high take applications. Do you know where 111 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 7: every one of us have some rare earth metals at home, 112 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 7: they are used in super permanent magnets and therefore on 113 00:05:56,120 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 7: that absolutely critical instrument of economic warfare, which is called 114 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:04,599 Speaker 7: the vacuum cleaner, there. 115 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 5: Is I will say, I sympathize with editors not wanting 116 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 5: headlines about vacuum cleaners versus you know, military equipment and 117 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 5: all of those important strategic there. 118 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 7: But you see, mind the story, the price of rare 119 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 7: earth metals may increase and making vacuum cleaners a bit 120 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 7: more expensive. 121 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 6: Okay, I don't know you're gonna click. 122 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, Okay, not to get all Judy Bloom on everyone, 123 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:34,040 Speaker 5: but rare earth they're not as rare as the name 124 00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 5: would imply. 125 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 3: But walk us through where they actually come from. 126 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:41,360 Speaker 7: A lot of them come from China. About eighty eighty 127 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 7: five percent of the world's rare earth metals come from China. 128 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 7: It's a question of digging them out of the ground 129 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 7: and then processing. The big difficult part is processing, because 130 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:55,480 Speaker 7: it's very polluting, and it's a reason why all the 131 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:59,559 Speaker 7: processing has moved from everywhere else in the planet into China, 132 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 7: because on one wanted to deal with how nasty the 133 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 7: process is. And here is also the other question you 134 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 7: want to do rare earth metals processing, in particular outside China, 135 00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 7: when you need is much higher prices. If anything, the 136 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 7: problem today with rare earth metals and if we want 137 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 7: to develop an industry of rare earth metals outside China, 138 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 7: is that prices are too low. We need much higher prices, 139 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 7: and then everyone will do rare earth metals. The other 140 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 7: thing that will happen is that if the price goes 141 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 7: to a level that incentivized everyone taking a bit of care, well, 142 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 7: a lot of engineers on the vacuum cleaning industry will 143 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 7: find ways to do it without rare earth metals. And 144 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 7: also people will actually collect the vacuum cleaners and recycle 145 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 7: the magnets for other use. 146 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 5: But if rare earths are there's such a small component 147 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 5: of something like a vacuum cleaner, I imagine the prices 148 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 5: would have to go up absolutely astronomically for that even 149 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 5: to be a consideration for a company making. 150 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 7: And most of the time the prices don't go nearly 151 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 7: as high. Prices are beginning to rise again now, but 152 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 7: prices stay relatively low compared to where historically prices have been, 153 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 7: and we have had the latest headlines are about rare 154 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:22,080 Speaker 7: earth metals and esport restrictions. We have some similar headlines 155 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 7: for other category of metals that we call critical minerals 156 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 7: and other fantastic exercise of labeling. I mean, like you 157 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 7: want to sell something called critical minerals and we have. 158 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:38,080 Speaker 7: You know, people were really concerned because China was imposing 159 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 7: some esport restrictions on tuxten, tellurian, bismuth, molybdenon and Indian. 160 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:47,800 Speaker 7: This sounds to me like high school chemistry. And you 161 00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 7: will think, oh my god, what is happening with the 162 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 7: price of all of this. I mean, this was not 163 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:54,320 Speaker 7: announced yesterday, This was announced a couple of months ago. 164 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:58,360 Speaker 7: And prices move, and yes, the price of say Indian 165 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 7: moved to three one hundred and forty five dollars par kilogram, 166 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:04,960 Speaker 7: And you will say, well, is that a lot is Look, yeah, 167 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 7: it's twenty percent increase run where we were at the 168 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 7: end of last year. But about ten years ago, that 169 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 7: is cost today three hundred and forty five was worth 170 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:20,079 Speaker 7: eight hundred dollars parkilogram. And did you notice ten years 171 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 7: ago that it was a crisis on the Indian market 172 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 7: and everyone was a bit worried about it because I didn't. 173 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 4: I didn't know. 174 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:31,199 Speaker 2: You know, we're still going to give this a provocative headline, 175 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 2: even though you know that people listen to the episode 176 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 2: and reveal that there is. 177 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:37,679 Speaker 3: Why why everyone's talking about the rare earth. 178 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:41,560 Speaker 2: Of the truth about the Earth. You know, we'll still 179 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:42,440 Speaker 2: make it exciting. 180 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 6: You know. What I want to. 181 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 7: Say also is, look, yes, it's a serious issue, and yes, 182 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:50,840 Speaker 7: I mean depending by eighty percent of a single country 183 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 7: is never a good idea. But there is an element 184 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 7: of panic that every time. And look, a lot of 185 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 7: this panic comes from the halmpful of minors and processes 186 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 7: or rare earth metals outside China. And you ass a 187 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 7: consultant on the rare earth metals industry. Is this something 188 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 7: that we shall be caring about? Well, the answer is 189 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 7: going to be yeah, hell yes. 190 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 5: So Marth, by the way, says he has access to 191 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:21,559 Speaker 5: rare earth minerals, he's invested in some companies, So we're fine. 192 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:41,199 Speaker 2: That fits so perfectly with this entire thing. You did 193 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 2: an amazing video the other day. I really I think 194 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:47,560 Speaker 2: it was true art. Actually, whether we're talking about rare 195 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:52,200 Speaker 2: earth metals or quote critical minerals unquote, what are the 196 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:54,079 Speaker 2: economics of getting them in Greenland. 197 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 7: Okay, let me just put my polar outfaid. And so 198 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 7: now there are not natural resources in Greenland period, unless 199 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 7: we are use mining eyes. Yes, there are some small 200 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:12,560 Speaker 7: concentrations of. 201 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 6: Rare earths in the south. 202 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 7: There is a bit of uranium here and there, there 203 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:21,640 Speaker 7: is this and that, but the concentrations are very low, 204 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 7: and the course of mining in Greenland is prohibitively expensive, 205 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 7: and you are not going to develop anything of even 206 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 7: medium sized mining operations in Greenland. 207 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:37,960 Speaker 6: I think that here is the exaggeration. 208 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 7: But you have better chance of finding some minerals on 209 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 7: there on my back garden in West London that you 210 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:48,960 Speaker 7: have in Greenland. Now I fear in that I'm going 211 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 7: to become the fifty five state. 212 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 3: That's fine. 213 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:55,240 Speaker 5: Joe's embraced his middle aged man destiny of becoming a 214 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 5: military historian expert. 215 00:11:57,160 --> 00:11:57,839 Speaker 3: So there's that. 216 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 5: That's why he's at the Imperial War Museum. So no shame, 217 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 5: no shame. But since we're talking strategy approaches and maybe 218 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 5: acquiring Greenland could be one of them, the thing I 219 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 5: don't understand is if we agree that rare earth's rare 220 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 5: minerals are of some strategic importance, for the US, and 221 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:17,440 Speaker 5: there are something you would want access to. But on 222 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:19,840 Speaker 5: the other hand, we actually have plenty of them. It's 223 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:23,960 Speaker 5: just we don't necessarily historically want to get them out 224 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 5: of the ground. Would the better approach not have been 225 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 5: to just build massive inventories of these things? Just get 226 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 5: them on the cheap from China. Let China tear up 227 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 5: its countryside, and we could buy those things from China, 228 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 5: and then once supply starts running out, or if relations 229 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 5: really start to deteriorate, then we could start our own industry. 230 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 3: Or is that is that difficult? What's the startup process 231 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:47,199 Speaker 3: like for something like that? 232 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 7: No, and that's what some companies, I mean, governments have 233 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:53,079 Speaker 7: not done their stockpiling, but some companies have done their 234 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 7: stockpiling themselves. They are Japanese high tech companies that they 235 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 7: are running more than a year worth of their demand 236 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:03,720 Speaker 7: for rare earth as a stockpile. And again, this in 237 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 7: certain ways makes sense because if you think about Japan, 238 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 7: a country that probably imports fifty to seventy five million 239 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:14,079 Speaker 7: dollars a year of rare earth metals, importing a stockpiling, 240 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 7: say a year or a couple of years worth of 241 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:20,160 Speaker 7: the staff is not that expensive. I mean for Japanese companies, 242 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 7: this is going to be like completely random error under 243 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:25,440 Speaker 7: huge balance sheet. So we have seen a bit of 244 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 7: a stockpiling and companies that they really require some particular 245 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 7: rare earth metals for a very particular application. They will 246 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:36,040 Speaker 7: have done it, and then government what they can do 247 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 7: is say, look, this is critical. We're going to support 248 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 7: our domestic industry. The United States has rare earth accumulations. 249 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 7: There is a mind called mountain pass. We can't develop that. 250 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 7: The government can get into the business and developing that. 251 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 7: The price is going to be that we need higher prices. 252 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 7: So you're going to have to protect either you effectively. 253 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 7: I mean, here is the irony. The best way to 254 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 7: develop an industry the United States and develop the local 255 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:05,680 Speaker 7: mining supply or red earth will be to impose so 256 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 7: on huge tariffs on red earth from China, so the 257 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 7: Chinese don't don't dump into the market. 258 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 6: I mean this seism. 259 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 2: I mean, this might be the vision more or less 260 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 2: across a range of industries, which is sort of like 261 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:24,720 Speaker 2: take a wrecking ball to a lot of you know, 262 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 2: elite things. There are comfortable jobs in government and finance 263 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 2: and media et cetera and send, you know, free up 264 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 2: that workforce to mine Malidna. 265 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 3: We're all going to be working in the mines. 266 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 4: I mean, this is kind of the vision. 267 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:43,760 Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about something that may actually be 268 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:45,359 Speaker 2: real and substantive. 269 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:47,880 Speaker 4: Now that you've convinced me not to worry too much. 270 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 2: And also like if it wherever a crisis, government could 271 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 2: just come door to door and demand your vacuum cleaner, 272 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 2: right like for the missiles and whatever like in the end, 273 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 2: if they're like, all right, we're going to confiscate your 274 00:14:58,520 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 2: vacuum cleaner. 275 00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 7: If it's really how you call the man the broom. 276 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 7: So with the government comes knocks at your door, you 277 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 7: return your fancy dice on vacuum cleaner and they give 278 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 7: you a broom. 279 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 5: The government will prim i Dyson out of my hands 280 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 5: saying that. 281 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 2: Right now, let's talk about a commodity that really actually 282 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 2: has real significance. Part of We've mentioned this a couple 283 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 2: of times on the show. Secretary of the Treasury Scott 284 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 2: Bessant Head in the run up to the election or 285 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 2: post election, talked about his three to three three plan 286 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 2: three get the budget deficit down to three percent, grow GDP, 287 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 2: by three percent and increase three million more barrels of 288 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 2: US oil per year. It seems like we're going in 289 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 2: the opposite direction of that. 290 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 7: Yeah, at current prices, certainly we are likely to see 291 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 7: lower American oil production than Haiger. I mean, Secretary Basset 292 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,160 Speaker 7: was quite clever on the way that he expressed. He 293 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 7: talked about growing three million borrows a day of energy. No, 294 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 7: he didn't say specifically oil. I mean when you talk 295 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 7: about barrels, you think that he's talking about oil, but 296 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 7: he means barrel equivalent. So you could put anything there. 297 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 7: At the moment, the administration is already including natural gas 298 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:12,680 Speaker 7: and that three I have been hearing some officials in 299 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 7: the administration saying, look, energy is energy. So we are 300 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 7: growing electricity, we are growing uranium, we are growing cold. 301 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:23,080 Speaker 7: You put it on a basis of oil equivalent and 302 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 7: there you get. I would not be surprised if we 303 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 7: are also growing more California and olive oil and we 304 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 7: are adding it into the barrel. But look West Texas Intermediate, 305 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:36,000 Speaker 7: the US oil bench match is trading close to sixty 306 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 7: dollars a barrel. You are there borderline where is economical 307 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 7: for shale on average for shale companies to drill new wells. 308 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 7: So we still start to see a significant slowdown in 309 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 7: the growth rate of the US oil industry. And if 310 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 7: prices to continue at this level or lower, that is, 311 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 7: low down, soon will be turning into a contraction and 312 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 7: we will see lower American oil production. 313 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean, even if we think the administration was 314 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 5: talking about energy units rather than just oil per se, 315 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 5: it does seem clear that there are a lot of 316 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 5: people in the energy patch itself which seem to have 317 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 5: had a different idea, right, they thought the administration was 318 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:19,920 Speaker 5: going to be very, very friendly to the shale industry 319 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 5: and instead Joe and I have mentioned this a few 320 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:27,400 Speaker 5: times before, but we've seen anecdotally, you know, some statements 321 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 5: from the Dallas FEDS Energy Survey where people are going like, 322 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 5: this is not what we signed up for at fifty 323 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 5: dollars per pare or oil prices. This is not only 324 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:41,719 Speaker 5: bad for increased investment in the industry, but could potentially 325 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 5: be a sort of existential threat. 326 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 7: So absolutely, I mean increased right. The Secretary of Energy 327 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 7: is an oil person. He founded and ran his own 328 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:57,160 Speaker 7: oil company service company called Liverty Energy, and a lot 329 00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:01,080 Speaker 7: of people in the industry saw that. Know, to quote 330 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:05,879 Speaker 7: an executive I spoke recently in Kuston, he thought of 331 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 7: the industry, thought that Chris Ray was our guy, was 332 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 7: one of ours, one of us. And this executive said, like, 333 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 7: what we have came to realize is that he's not 334 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:17,399 Speaker 7: one of us. 335 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 6: He is Trump's guy. And that is a big difference. 336 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 7: And yes, the comments in this anonymous Dallas Fed survey 337 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:31,439 Speaker 7: were quite shocking. And you're talking private to executives in 338 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 7: the oil industry. I almost have to pinch myself at times. 339 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 7: It's like, hold on a second, is Biden still on 340 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:42,479 Speaker 7: the White House? Because you guys seems to really dislike everything. 341 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,200 Speaker 5: Replace Trump with the word Biden and it would make sense. 342 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 7: It's like, when I was reading that series of comments 343 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 7: from the Dallas Fed, I joke at that you have 344 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:56,880 Speaker 7: been sleeping for six months and wake up you will 345 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,760 Speaker 7: sink that the Democrats are still running the White House 346 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 7: and Congress and exter. I mean, this was a dream 347 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 7: for the oil industry. It is a Republican at the 348 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:09,440 Speaker 7: White House. The Secretary of the Treasury is a Wallace 349 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:13,719 Speaker 7: Street heads fund manager, and the Secretary of Energy is 350 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 7: the founder of an oil company. 351 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:19,640 Speaker 6: And here we are everyone in the oil part. 352 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:24,120 Speaker 7: Perhaps because of this, he is absolutely mad with the administration. 353 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 4: I have a really dumb question, and I'm gonna ask 354 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 4: you real question. What do we call it the oil patch? 355 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 3: I don't know? 356 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:48,879 Speaker 4: Oh sorry, I didn't mean the somebody? 357 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 6: No, this is Can I use Google? 358 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 2: Oh sorry, we can cut this? Can we keep this 359 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:57,400 Speaker 2: in some can we keep this in? 360 00:19:57,720 --> 00:19:57,920 Speaker 5: Yeah? 361 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,840 Speaker 3: I don't know why I have a poetic license. 362 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:03,920 Speaker 4: Wow, I thought for sure. 363 00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:06,399 Speaker 3: Okay, oil patch it kind of speaking of gardening. 364 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:08,840 Speaker 5: It kind of sounds like, you know, you're growing vegetables 365 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 5: on your oil patch, except things on. 366 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:15,159 Speaker 7: The oil pot, like the pipe that you used to 367 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:21,919 Speaker 7: drill is called Octe oil County tubula good. Oh yeah, 368 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 7: I have no idea why oil county, but it is 369 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,399 Speaker 7: oil pats oil County is you know, it's it's the 370 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:29,399 Speaker 7: oil place. 371 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,159 Speaker 4: And I have a real question the oil place. What 372 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 4: the oil place? 373 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 3: I'm going to start. We're all going to go down 374 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:35,720 Speaker 3: to the oil place. 375 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 4: Are talking the oil place? 376 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:38,920 Speaker 1: Okay? 377 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:42,439 Speaker 2: I have a real question. The substantive one, which is 378 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,280 Speaker 2: one of these sort of like booming export industries for 379 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 2: the US, was a natural gas and the sort of 380 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 2: LNG terminals, and I think Biden put a pause on 381 00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 2: them and that pauses. I don't know if it's been lifted, 382 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 2: but it will be lifted almost certainly construction of new. 383 00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:58,640 Speaker 4: Ones with the trade war. 384 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 2: Have the economics of LNG export change at all with 385 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,240 Speaker 2: the decline and oil prices like cause anything, Have any 386 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 2: dials moved. 387 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:06,399 Speaker 6: On that front? 388 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 7: Not yet, And potentially yes, because one big buyer of 389 00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:13,400 Speaker 7: American lergy was China, and China has not bought any 390 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 7: LNG from America in a long while. And also if 391 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 7: oil productions start to decline, when you drill for oil, 392 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 7: you usually get a mix of hydro out of the ground. 393 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:25,760 Speaker 6: You will get oil, you will get gets. 394 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 4: So if you like I fewer wells, yeah, so. 395 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,960 Speaker 7: You have fewer oil wells, you're gonna have fewer or 396 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 7: gas wells. So the input cause of gas is gonna 397 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 7: go higher, and you may have a bit of lack 398 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,920 Speaker 7: of demand on the other side from China. So far 399 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,640 Speaker 7: all is good because the European Union and the UK 400 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 7: still need a lot of natural gas from the United States. 401 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 7: The big expansion of Catar is still about twelve to 402 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:57,760 Speaker 7: eighteen months away, and Russia is fighting with Ukraine and 403 00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 7: it's not exporting what they used to do in a 404 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 7: years time. 405 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:03,440 Speaker 6: That could be a big deal. 406 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 7: The other, to me, very important topic in trade and 407 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 7: oil is that oil used to be almost the largest 408 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,679 Speaker 7: component of the American trade deficit in goods. 409 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:15,919 Speaker 6: Yeah, you go to two. 410 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:19,480 Speaker 7: Thousand and eight, the US trade deficit was around running 411 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,959 Speaker 7: around eight hundred billion dollars a year. Of that nearly 412 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 7: four hundred billion US oil. Today we are on a 413 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:27,000 Speaker 7: surplus for oil. 414 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:29,679 Speaker 3: How times have changed? 415 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 5: I have one more question just on oil specifically, but 416 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,720 Speaker 5: one of the hallmarks of the Trump administration is they 417 00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 5: tend to promise everything to all people, and arguably that's 418 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 5: been a big component of their success. And I think 419 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,320 Speaker 5: when it comes to energy policy specifically, one of the 420 00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 5: promises was we're going to be good for the energy industry, 421 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 5: for oil specifically, and at the same time, we're going 422 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,400 Speaker 5: to be good for inflation. We're going to bring down prices. 423 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 5: You're not going to have to pay, you know, these 424 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 5: exorbitant dollar amounts at the pump. Is there any way, 425 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 5: you know, let's assume that the tariffs start working, maybe 426 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,520 Speaker 5: growth expectations start to pick up. Is there any way 427 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:10,160 Speaker 5: that the Trump administration can end up fulfilling its various 428 00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:14,720 Speaker 5: policies when it comes to energy. To everyone involved, here, 429 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 5: is there a way where eventually, maybe maybe they you know, 430 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,439 Speaker 5: make up with the oil industry, the shelle industry, and 431 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:24,400 Speaker 5: maybe somehow they I don't know, encourage energy from other 432 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 5: sources and inflation still, you know, comes down. 433 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,640 Speaker 3: What's the best case scenario here? 434 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,480 Speaker 7: I think the best case of scenario you're putting me 435 00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,120 Speaker 7: here on this spot. But if I think it probably 436 00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 7: something like let's call it, I mean, let's call it 437 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 7: the Goldilocks, the middle ground. What you know, the oil 438 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:49,440 Speaker 7: patch will laugh and a main stream will be happy. Say, 439 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,680 Speaker 7: seventy five dollars a barrel. Okay, seventy five dollars a 440 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,919 Speaker 7: barrel is not breaking the budget of any middle class 441 00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,240 Speaker 7: family or working class family when it comes to gasoline 442 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,119 Speaker 7: in the United the States, and seventy five dollars a barrel, 443 00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 7: the American oil industry is making money, no problem whatsoever. 444 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 7: Whoever is complaining at seventy five probably it doesn't have 445 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,720 Speaker 7: a very very good business case. The main problem is 446 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:16,360 Speaker 7: to make it everything more at seventy five and just 447 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:18,520 Speaker 7: for the sake of the argument, let's say that the 448 00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:22,439 Speaker 7: magic number is seventy five. You cannot get that running 449 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 7: unless you get OPEC on board, and they keep restraining 450 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 7: production and losing market share because seventy five dollars a 451 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 7: barrels means that the consumers are happy and they continue 452 00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:36,760 Speaker 7: to consume, but also that the ushail industry continues to grow, 453 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 7: and at some points someone needs to produce less. So 454 00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,639 Speaker 7: you can even if that magic number existed, and I 455 00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 7: think that seventy five probably is about right, you need 456 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 7: OPEK to play ball and accept that they're gonna lose 457 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 7: market share forever and ever, and I don't think that 458 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:55,640 Speaker 7: they're on that business. 459 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:59,640 Speaker 2: So last question for me, but how has Trump maybe 460 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 2: tariffs and is provocative action starts literally or virtually every 461 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 2: country in the world. How is it interacting with OPEK specifically? 462 00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:12,320 Speaker 7: I think that for on one side, the turn administration 463 00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:14,400 Speaker 7: is putting quite a lot of diplomatic pressure on open 464 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:18,159 Speaker 7: countries to increase production, and we saw Saudi Arabia increasing production. 465 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 6: Secretary of Energy is in. 466 00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:24,280 Speaker 7: Saudi Arabia right now and it's discussing mostly nuclear affairs 467 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:29,000 Speaker 7: about the Southeast one American technology for nuclear Sibylian or 468 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:34,199 Speaker 7: least civilian quote unquote nuclear technology. So there are a 469 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,639 Speaker 7: lot of things that the Saudiast made, one from the 470 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 7: United States and the United States one the Southeast to 471 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:44,040 Speaker 7: increase production to put prices down, but used by large. 472 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:46,480 Speaker 7: If I can't summarize what is the feeling of my 473 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,159 Speaker 7: open sources right now, I think it's very similar to 474 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 7: what you know, the bankers and traders that you guys 475 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 7: are talking every day probably as saying it's. 476 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,919 Speaker 6: Like what or hard it's going on here? Because no 477 00:25:59,000 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 6: one really knows. 478 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,199 Speaker 7: I mean, how do you plan you are an old 479 00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:05,840 Speaker 7: pet country and you're trying to decide oil production policy 480 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,399 Speaker 7: for the next three months. How do you plan that 481 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:13,119 Speaker 7: where you don't really know what tomorrow morning or maybe 482 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:14,640 Speaker 7: tonight brings. 483 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 5: Yeah, and even if we assume that this, you know, 484 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,160 Speaker 5: this was it, nothing else was going to change. Now 485 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 5: that uncertainty premium is in the market, and regardless of 486 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,880 Speaker 5: what Trump actually changes from now on, we know. 487 00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,000 Speaker 3: That it looks like global growth is going to slow, right, 488 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:30,520 Speaker 3: So you're. 489 00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:34,960 Speaker 5: Asking opek to basically boost production into a slowing global economy. 490 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:38,199 Speaker 7: I mean we that is to me, that was because 491 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 7: every other asset class was dealing effectively with one shock, 492 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 7: and that was a demand shock. 493 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,359 Speaker 6: Everyone was just like assuming, okay, we are going to 494 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:48,160 Speaker 6: slow down. 495 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:52,480 Speaker 7: Oil was dealing simultaneously with a demand shock and what I. 496 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,040 Speaker 6: Will call a supply surprise. 497 00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,719 Speaker 7: I'm not gonna I mean, the increasing OPEC production is 498 00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 7: not yet enough call it that shock, but let's call 499 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,760 Speaker 7: it that supply surprise that can very quickly became a shock. 500 00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:10,200 Speaker 7: So you know, that is why oil prices went down 501 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,080 Speaker 7: so much, and that's also why oil equity is really 502 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,560 Speaker 7: absolutely tank aave blast. 503 00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:17,919 Speaker 4: Always great at catching up with you, so great to 504 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:18,479 Speaker 4: do it. 505 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 2: Finally here in your home court appreciation on his home patch, 506 00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 2: on his home patch, thankk. 507 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:24,919 Speaker 6: You for having me. 508 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 7: And I'm gonna be googling now oil patch. 509 00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:41,320 Speaker 2: Okay, that was fun. I can't believe I got to 510 00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,840 Speaker 2: stumph on a energy related question. 511 00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, fair enough. 512 00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,960 Speaker 5: But I strongly suspect that's just like a literary term 513 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 5: that someone came up with and it sounds kind of nice. 514 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:52,840 Speaker 3: It sounds kind of down home. 515 00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:56,920 Speaker 5: Down and people went with it. But I do think 516 00:27:57,400 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 5: there's so much. There's so much going on. 517 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,359 Speaker 2: Can I say, yeah, you as only importing one hundred 518 00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,880 Speaker 2: and seventy million dollars worth of that is a very 519 00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,639 Speaker 2: good stat By the way, everyone should stay listening. Hopefully 520 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 2: they're listening. Odd lots listeners can now repeat this at 521 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,159 Speaker 2: part like that is one of those good stats that 522 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:15,160 Speaker 2: like odd lots listeners can repeat it parties. 523 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,480 Speaker 5: It's a good party trivia for au thoughts listeners, assuming 524 00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 5: that they're actually getting invited to parties with the chat 525 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 5: like that they. 526 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 4: Are there, did you know you know? 527 00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:25,200 Speaker 3: Actually, so we all. 528 00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:25,880 Speaker 4: Know that they're not rare? 529 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:26,720 Speaker 6: Like that part we do. 530 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:30,040 Speaker 2: At this point, I did not quite realize how small 531 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:30,680 Speaker 2: the scale of. 532 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:32,720 Speaker 5: The important If a guy came up to me at 533 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:34,919 Speaker 5: a party and said, did you know in fact that 534 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 5: rare earths were not in fact that rare? I would 535 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:40,920 Speaker 5: be what's that you know that meme of the guy 536 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:42,920 Speaker 5: like whispering into a girl's ear? 537 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,040 Speaker 3: What if that would be my face? Like? Whatever? 538 00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:47,280 Speaker 4: What if you followed that up with the vacuum cleaner's part? 539 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,600 Speaker 5: Though, yeah, that's mildly more interesting. 540 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:51,360 Speaker 4: I'm saying there's a little something there. 541 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,120 Speaker 5: Although then I would be like, why are you talking 542 00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:56,280 Speaker 5: to me about vacuum cleaners? Do you think this is 543 00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 5: something that I'm especially interested in a well anyway. 544 00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:00,240 Speaker 3: Lots to talk about. 545 00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 5: I'm sure we will continue our spate of basically daily 546 00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 5: episodes at this point, but should we leave it there 547 00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:06,120 Speaker 5: for now? 548 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:06,920 Speaker 4: Let's leave it there. 549 00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:09,640 Speaker 5: This has been another episode of the Audlots podcast. I'm 550 00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,720 Speaker 5: Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. 551 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,080 Speaker 2: And I'm Jill Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. 552 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:18,320 Speaker 2: Follow our guest Javier Bloss, He's at Javier Bloss. Follow 553 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,720 Speaker 2: our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carman Arma Dash, Ol Bennett 554 00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:25,000 Speaker 2: at Dashbod and Kelbrooks at Kelbrooks. And thank you to 555 00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:28,040 Speaker 2: our producer Moses Ondam, who's here with us in studio 556 00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:31,320 Speaker 2: in London. For more odd Lodge content, go to Bloomberg 557 00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 2: dot com slash odd Lots, where we have all of 558 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:37,000 Speaker 2: our episodes and a daily newsletter that you should subscribe to. 559 00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:39,400 Speaker 2: And you could shout about all of these topics twenty 560 00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:43,040 Speaker 2: four to seven in our discord Discord dot gg slash 561 00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:43,520 Speaker 2: od Loots. 562 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:45,880 Speaker 5: And if you enjoy odd Lots, if you like it 563 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,960 Speaker 5: when we talk about the oil patch on Haavier's Home Patch, 564 00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:51,480 Speaker 5: then please leave us a positive review on your favorite 565 00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:55,160 Speaker 5: podcast platform and remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, 566 00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:58,400 Speaker 5: you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. 567 00:29:58,560 --> 00:29:59,520 Speaker 3: All you need to do. 568 00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:01,920 Speaker 5: Is find the in Berg channel on Apple Podcast and 569 00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:03,280 Speaker 5: follow the instructions there. 570 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening.