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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. But this one is good.

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Speaker 2: All right. Here we go throwing in, so we're saying

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Speaker 2: it's a cat to stop. We see most gamblers when

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Speaker 2: they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 1: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate Kabai want to.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm Brandon Anderson and

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Speaker 1: oh my god, Mason Crosby just missed another field goal.

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Speaker 1: I am here with Raheem Palmer to wrap up a

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Speaker 1: fifteen hour bonkers week five. Raheem, where do we even

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Speaker 1: start with us?

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Speaker 2: Mess? Every kicker decided to go out and party on

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Speaker 2: Saturday night and decided that, you know what, I'm just

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Speaker 2: going to have a hangover game. And it just didn't

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Speaker 2: turn out the win Michael Jordan's in the nineteen ninety

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Speaker 2: seven Day Finals.

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Speaker 1: Portionately, No, it did not. We had seven missed extra

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Speaker 1: points by the forty five minutes into the opening slate.

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Speaker 1: This afternoon, we had a London game to start things off.

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Speaker 1: We had like an hour long weather delay in the

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Speaker 1: Sunday night game, so we've been doing football all day today.

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Speaker 1: Let's get to the good stuff here. We're gonna run

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Speaker 1: through the Sunday Slate betting takeaways from every game, we'll

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Speaker 1: preview Monday Night Football, and finish with our Week six

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Speaker 1: hot read. As always, Odds Today from bet MGM, the

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Speaker 1: official odds provider of the Action Network podcast. Let's start

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Speaker 1: out with about half of those miss kicks in Cincinnati.

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Speaker 1: The Packers got the win twenty five to twenty two,

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Speaker 1: but not before a wild finish. So let me just

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Speaker 1: set the stage here. There are two and a half

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Speaker 1: minutes left. The Packers are in position for the field goal.

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Speaker 1: We're tied up, so Mason Crosby has made twenty seven

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Speaker 1: straight field goals. At this point, we all know Crosby

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Speaker 1: has been their kicker forever. Misses the field goal, Bengals

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Speaker 1: drive down in regulation, miss the field goal. Packers get

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Speaker 1: the ball back after the long missed field goal, miss

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Speaker 1: another field goal, so we got miss miss miss. We're

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Speaker 1: headed overtime. First play of overtime, the very first play,

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow drops back and throws a screen to the

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Speaker 1: Packers just like throws it straight to them. Just couldn't

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Speaker 1: have telegraphed anymore if you were trying to throw the game.

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Speaker 1: You would have made it look even more suspicious than that.

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Speaker 1: So the Packers get the ball back, and what do

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Speaker 1: they do not just put it into the end zone

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Speaker 1: and the game They run into the line, they lose

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Speaker 1: some yards, They miss the field goal that Bengals drive

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Speaker 1: back down. They miss the field goal finally, mercifully, thank god,

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Speaker 1: and Mason Crosby missed his i think fourth game winning

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Speaker 1: attempt in the final ten minutes of the game. And

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Speaker 1: by the way, Mason Crosby missed an extra point earlier

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Speaker 1: in the game, otherwise it would have been over anyways.

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Speaker 1: We had to miss all the extra field goals. So

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Speaker 1: that was the Packers twenty five to somehow the Packers

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Speaker 1: cover the two and a half if you got the

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Speaker 1: line at the right moment. Otherwise it may have been

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Speaker 1: a push, the most lousy, awful push of all time.

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Speaker 1: We did not quite hit the over we could have

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Speaker 1: if the Packers had scored a touchdown any of those

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Speaker 1: mini attempts that we gave them. It was a wild game.

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Speaker 1: We missed a lot of kicks. McPherson missed kicks, The

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Speaker 1: Bengals kicker missed a kick for the win, and then

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Speaker 1: celebrated like you thought he made it like only the

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Speaker 1: Bengals could do. Where do we go with us? It's

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Speaker 1: a mess.

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Speaker 2: I want to I want to look at this game. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: the Packers pretty much dominated. They won yards four hundred

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Speaker 2: and sixty six and three hundred and sixty seven yards

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Speaker 2: pul play seven point four to five point six rushing yards,

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Speaker 2: they had more like they got the more turnovers. Basically,

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Speaker 2: they just struggled in the red zone. They had forty

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Speaker 2: zone t percentage. Obviously they were two for five. Cincinnati

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Speaker 2: was two for two in the red zone, and the

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Speaker 2: Packers had three missfield goal and a miss point after

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Speaker 2: after touchdown. So it's just this was a game where

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Speaker 2: the Packers probably should have won it by double digits,

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Speaker 2: but they struggled on those reds in the red zone. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: they were missing Alexander so that's he's probably the most

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Speaker 2: important cornerback in the league, and Jamar Chase is just

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Speaker 2: out there proving it. He's a number one receiver. So

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Speaker 2: I think the Packers they played a game that they

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Speaker 2: typically played. They had great I mean, they're a great

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Speaker 2: offensive team, but they can't really defend. They just didn't

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Speaker 2: convert in the red zone.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Jamar Chase had another huge game, one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty nine yards and a touchdown, made a huge play

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Speaker 1: and I think overtime on one of the seventeen possible

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Speaker 1: game winning drives, I forget which one, had a great

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Speaker 1: catch on the sideline that I though I was gonna

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Speaker 1: set Cincinnati up for the win. He looks awesome. He's

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Speaker 1: been He's been everything advertising better. Devanta Adams was catching

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Speaker 1: a pass every time you watched. I had two hundred

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Speaker 1: and six yards and a touchdown. It did feel like

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Speaker 1: the Packers were kind of in control the whole way.

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Speaker 1: Right before halftime, Jamar Chase had a seventy yard touchdown

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Speaker 1: that was kind of a broken playsh They just chucked

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Speaker 1: it up and green Bay tried to the defender tried

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Speaker 1: to jump in front, and then there's just nobody else behind.

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Speaker 1: So Chase just walked into the end zone. So that

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Speaker 1: was seven of the points. And then late in the game,

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Speaker 1: Packers are up eight and the Bengals had like their

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Speaker 1: one really good drive of the game, seventy five yards

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Speaker 1: for the touchdown and the two point conversion. But that's

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Speaker 1: most of their points. That's fifteen out of the twenty

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Speaker 1: two points. The rest of the game, the Packers were

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Speaker 1: in control. They're moving the ball am is open literally

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Speaker 1: every time that he ran out for a route. And Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't really know what to make

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Speaker 1: of these two teams because Cincinnati's three and two now,

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Speaker 1: so theoretically to be Green Bay on the road and

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Speaker 1: mostly dominant dominate that game is a pretty impressive performance.

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Speaker 1: But then again, I mean, how many ways can you

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Speaker 1: miss an opportunity to win a game? Like? Has any

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Speaker 1: game ever more deserved to end in a tie than

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Speaker 1: this one? Like we needed a Packers missed field goal,

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Speaker 1: and then one more drive down and like from the

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Speaker 1: one yard line, one last Bengals miss field goal for

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Speaker 1: the tie?

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Speaker 2: This How is this not a tie? Yeah, we were

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Speaker 2: close to getting there. If Aaron Rodgers doesn't complete that

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Speaker 2: pass on third and long and overtime, I think we

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Speaker 2: might have a tie.

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Speaker 1: We were close. I mean, we could have had a

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Speaker 1: couple more missed field goals in there. Mason Cosby's missing

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Speaker 1: kicks left and right and somehow ends up being the

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Speaker 1: hero of the game at the end of the game

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Speaker 1: when he finally makes the game winner. So Joe Burrow

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Speaker 1: by the Way, was taken to the hospital after the

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Speaker 1: game for a throat contusion. I don't really know what

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Speaker 1: that is. A contusion is a bruise. So I guess that,

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Speaker 1: you know, somebody like punched him in the throat during

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Speaker 1: the game or something. I don't know what that. That

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Speaker 1: doesn't seem great. He finished the game, he didn't he

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Speaker 1: you know, I think missed a little bit of time

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Speaker 1: then came back in. Doesn't seem like that should be

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Speaker 1: something that sticks with them, But so I'm going to

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Speaker 1: keep an eye on for sure. Yeah, can we stop

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Speaker 1: settling for field goals? Like how many times did a

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Speaker 1: team that the defenses were not stopping teams down the

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Speaker 1: stretch here and just finish the job, like the when

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Speaker 1: the Bengals fumbled the opening play in overtime or sorry,

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Speaker 1: through the interception and opening play and overtime, the Packers

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Speaker 1: get the ball right there, Just run a couple of

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Speaker 1: plays and end it. Run off the field, go home.

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Speaker 1: Save us all the missed field goals. I don't understand

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Speaker 1: the setting for field goals. I don't understand all the

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Speaker 1: missed extra points. Just go for two. Get the kickers

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Speaker 1: out here. We tried to change the rules to make

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Speaker 1: the kickers less important, and we made them more important

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Speaker 1: than ever because now they miss everything.

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Speaker 2: A lot of these coaches are just conservative by nature,

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Speaker 2: and I think that's what teams are. You have coaches

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Speaker 2: who are more afraid of losing than actually going out

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Speaker 2: there and wanting to win these games. And I think

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Speaker 2: that's a great segue into our next game as you

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Speaker 2: look at the Chargers and Browns, and you have a

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Speaker 2: coach in Brandon Staley who is going to go out

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Speaker 2: there and try to win these games. Eats Chargers. They

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Speaker 2: were three for three on fourth down, and those were

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Speaker 2: the differences in the games. I mean when you look

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Speaker 2: at any every other area, five hundred and thirty one

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Speaker 2: yards to four hundred and ninety three, rushing yards two

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Speaker 2: hundred and thirty to one to eleven and turns. It

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Speaker 2: felt like a game that the brown should have won.

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Speaker 2: But justin Herbert converted on fourth down, converted on third down.

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Speaker 2: They just made the necessary necessary plays to take this game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, those fourth downs were huge too. Brandon Stalely just

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Speaker 1: keeps on making winning decisions, the decisions that NFL Twitter

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Speaker 1: wants all the coaches to make. Only Brandon Staley is

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Speaker 1: making those decisions, and I think he's even making them

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Speaker 1: a little more aggressively than we want them to. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's twenty seven to thirteen, just five minutes after halftime.

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Speaker 1: That's when they went for that fourth and two on

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Speaker 1: their own twenty four. Like, if you don't get that,

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Speaker 1: that feels like game over because you're basic giving up

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Speaker 1: another three to seven points right there, and you're down

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Speaker 1: three scores at that point. They get that one. They

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Speaker 1: go for fourth again later on that drive and score touchdown,

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Speaker 1: and now they were down fourteen. They do the other

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Speaker 1: analytics thing. They go for two, and they get it successfully,

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Speaker 1: And that's the thing that we all know you're supposed

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Speaker 1: to do. The math says, if you're down fourteen, you

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Speaker 1: score a touchdown, you go for two. They did that,

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Speaker 1: and they did that with like still twenty minutes left

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Speaker 1: in the game, and it's a good thing. They need

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Speaker 1: the extra point when it got down near the end

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Speaker 1: of the game. Later in the game, they're down seven

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Speaker 1: now driving and again they're in kind of field goal arrange.

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Speaker 1: Down seven. Any coach in the NFL settles for the

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Speaker 1: field goal there gets a fourth down. They're like, all right, well,

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Speaker 1: let's get the points. Got to get the points. No,

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Speaker 1: you're still losing by you still need a touchdown, Like

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Speaker 1: you're still down four. After that point, Staley knew it.

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Speaker 1: He went for it. They picked up the first down,

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Speaker 1: they score a touchdown. Of course, after they score the touchdown,

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Speaker 1: they missed the extra point. They I thought that the

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Speaker 1: Chargers were going to Chargers again, you know, the way

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Speaker 1: that they always find a way to lose games. We've

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Speaker 1: talked about that before, and they are still doing some

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Speaker 1: of those mistakes. It's very concerning. The Chargers' special teams

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Speaker 1: is god awful. It's so bad. They came into this

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Speaker 1: game ranked thirty first in special teams and I got

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Speaker 1: to think they're gonna be thirty second after this. I'm

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Speaker 1: not talking about in DVA. They missed an extra point

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Speaker 1: at the end of the game that nearly cost them

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Speaker 1: the game. They should have tied it. Instead, they're down one.

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Speaker 1: They had four times this game where they brought the

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Speaker 1: kickoff out when they shouldn' out just take the touch back,

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Speaker 1: and they brought it out and got buried inside the twenty.

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Speaker 1: And they're losing like ten yards a pop on each

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Speaker 1: one of those. The Chargers are thirty first in DBA

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Speaker 1: Special teams. Last two years they were thirty second. That's

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Speaker 1: how many teams there are. That's dead last, and they

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Speaker 1: are not fixing this problem and no special teams doesn't

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Speaker 1: seem like it's that big of a deal, but it

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Speaker 1: is like ten to fifteen percent of the game by

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Speaker 1: the way the analytics line up, And so it's frustrating.

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Speaker 1: As much as Staley is finding all these edges with

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Speaker 1: the decision making, I can't make up my mind that

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Speaker 1: do we credit the Chargers for all the positive decisions

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Speaker 1: they're making or do we fault them for the fact

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Speaker 1: that they keep getting on the third and fourth down

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Speaker 1: and that they keep making all these special team's mistakes.

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Speaker 2: They won this game and were absolutely dominating, Like so

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Speaker 2: I'm totally impressed, Like Cleveland had a fifty three percent

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Speaker 2: rushing success rate and they absolutely got gashed on the ground.

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Speaker 2: And for me, they're like, if they don't played this

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Speaker 2: game over one hundred times, a thousand times, I think

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Speaker 2: Cleveland covers in most of them. And it came down

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Speaker 2: to justin Herbert making place. And you know what, it

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Speaker 2: reminds me of the twenty seventeen Eagles. Doug Peterson, he

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Speaker 2: was like really aggressive and I felt like he found

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Speaker 2: like a market inefficiency. And since then we started to

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Speaker 2: see more coaches say, you know what, I'm going for

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Speaker 2: it on fourth down. But I think Brandon Staley has

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Speaker 2: taken what Doug Peterson did to the total next line,

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Speaker 2: like you know that you have to stop this team

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Speaker 2: on four downs, like period, if you're if you're in

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Speaker 2: the green zone, you have to stop the Chargers four times.

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Speaker 2: It's not oh yeah, you got to start to stop

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Speaker 2: them three times again in punch or you kick a

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Speaker 2: field goal. They just don't let you off the hook.

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Speaker 2: And I think that's impressive. And to me, I think

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Speaker 2: you got to be looking at Super Bowl futures because

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Speaker 2: we saw Baltimore do this a couple of years ago.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they're analytically sound and they'll go for it.

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Speaker 2: But the difference between Baltimore and the Chargers is that

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Speaker 2: they have a quarterback and they have weapons who can

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Speaker 2: actually like stretch the field and and do different things

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Speaker 2: where it's just Baltimore's primarily they're built on the run,

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Speaker 2: like we saw the Chargers. They're built to come back

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Speaker 2: from double digit deficits and that's scary to know that

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Speaker 2: you have to stop a team four times at any

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Speaker 2: given moment. And we saw it against the Chiefs. They

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Speaker 2: went forward on instead of kicking the field goad in overtime,

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Speaker 2: they went forward on four and eight. Now they got

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Speaker 2: to pass an affairs call. But that's what happens in

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Speaker 2: today's NFL. Like we saw today, they got to pass

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Speaker 2: an affairs call which changed the outcome of the game.

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Speaker 2: And if you got a quarterback who could just throw

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Speaker 2: it up there for his receivers, and his receivers and

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Speaker 2: Keenan Allen and Mike Wims aren't guardable, you're gonna find

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Speaker 2: yourself in positions to where you're gonna draw flags. And

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Speaker 2: I think right now to me, the charges they got

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Speaker 2: a good defense. Obviously they can't stop the run, so

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Speaker 2: that I mean, that's a struggle. But I would rather

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Speaker 2: have a team that can slow down the past than

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Speaker 2: be able to stop the run. And today's NFL, so

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Speaker 2: I think this is this super Bowl team.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know. I know that you think that,

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Speaker 1: And I think that half of me and then the

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Speaker 1: other half of me is like Holy Cow of red flags.

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Speaker 1: Everywhere there's got to be regression coming because in this game,

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Speaker 1: the Chargers had the ball for twenty three minutes. Like

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Speaker 1: that was the thing. We both picked the Browns coming

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Speaker 1: to this game, we thought that the run game was

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Speaker 1: gonna dominate, and then it did. You know, the Browns

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Speaker 1: ran for two hundred thirty yards six point six yards

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Speaker 1: to carry dominated time of possession. Chargers had that fumble

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Speaker 1: before half that cost them a field goal, They had

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Speaker 1: two missed extra points, They allowed almost eight yards of play,

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Speaker 1: but three for three on fourth down, four for four

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Speaker 1: in the red zone. The problem is if you need

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Speaker 1: to go one hundred percent in the red zone and

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Speaker 1: one hundred percent on a fourth down and still have

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Speaker 1: the late drive to win the game. And we've seen

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Speaker 1: that happen now on multiple of these games. You know,

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Speaker 1: that was kind of the formula against the Chiefs that

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Speaker 1: got they'll win. And it worries me that they keep

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Speaker 1: needing this incredible elite efficiency because history tells us that

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Speaker 1: that has to regress a little bit. Now that might

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Speaker 1: be offset because maybe you take a few more fourth

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Speaker 1: down chances and you get a few extra things, a

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Speaker 1: few extra chances at the apple, and so maybe that's

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Speaker 1: what Staley is doing. Is offsetting and giving them more

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Speaker 1: chances for this. Maybe that's helping the third down aggression,

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Speaker 1: knowing that they're willing to go for a fourth down.

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Speaker 1: So the math is not necessarily just apples to apples

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Speaker 1: from past years. But it does make me concern that

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Speaker 1: the run game still is very leaky. It makes me

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Speaker 1: concern that they're still struggling in the first and second down.

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Speaker 1: These are the things.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: A couple of weeks ago, we were flipped on this.

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Speaker 1: You were a little concerned about them, and I was saying, yeah,

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Speaker 1: but they're still coming through, and when the first and

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Speaker 1: second down stuff catches up, then how good will they be?

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Speaker 1: And I still I go back and forth. I think

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Speaker 1: that they are a better team on first and second

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Speaker 1: than they look like, but I wonder how much some

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Speaker 1: of that late stuff can hold up. The other thing too,

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Speaker 1: We didn't even talk about the end of this game.

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Speaker 1: So if you are like Rahem and I, if you

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Speaker 1: bet on the Browns in this game at plus two

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Speaker 1: and a half, this was our stink of the week.

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Speaker 1: Smell it, smell it smelly.

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Speaker 2: It's the smell. It's quite pungent. Dude, plug your nose.

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Speaker 2: It's stinks.

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Speaker 1: This is your stink.

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Speaker 3: Of the week.

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Speaker 1: So it's forty two to twenty one. Browns are up.

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Speaker 1: The Chargers miss that extra point, and so the Chargers

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Speaker 1: get the ball back. They're driving late. Austin Eckler gets

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Speaker 1: the ball and is running toward the end zone and

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Speaker 1: very smartly slides down in bounds at like the three

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Speaker 1: yard line. And at this point, all you gotta do

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Speaker 1: is just kneel the ball a couple times. The Browns

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Speaker 1: are out of timeouts. Kneel it, kneel it, kick the

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Speaker 1: field goal, and go home. Now I know, kick the

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Speaker 1: field goal. You literally just missed the extra point, but

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Speaker 1: the extra point is further out. You never miss field

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Speaker 1: goals at like the two yard line unless Tony Romo

334
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Speaker 1: is holding the ball. You make the field goals there.

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Speaker 1: So just kneel the ball twice. So the Chargers do

336
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Speaker 1: the smart thing, kind of They hand the ball off

337
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Speaker 1: to Austin Eckler, who clearly was not trying to score.

338
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Speaker 1: He kind of just walks into the back of his

339
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Speaker 1: line and you can tell he's just trying to run

340
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Speaker 1: some time out. But the Browns also know what's happening,

341
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Speaker 1: and the Browns guys get behind Eckeler and push him

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Speaker 1: into the end zone for the touchdown. So rather than

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Speaker 1: the Chargers just kneeling it and kicking the field goal

344
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Speaker 1: and then they win forty four or forty two and

345
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Speaker 1: we still get our plus two and a half, we

346
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Speaker 1: get the cover instead. Eckeler tries to not score, but

347
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Speaker 1: the defense tries to score Ekoler and succeeds. So stink

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Speaker 1: of the week if you were on the Browns two

349
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Speaker 1: and a half. Stink of the week. If you had

350
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Speaker 1: Austin Eckler on your opponent's fantasy team. I know some

351
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Speaker 1: of you lost because of that touchdown that he was

352
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Speaker 1: not trying to get.

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Speaker 4: So that was you know, you know what that was

354
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Speaker 4: confusing for me because we saw the Chargers kicker miss

355
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Speaker 4: an extra point on the kick before, so I wonder

356
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Speaker 4: if Brandon Staley even wanted to actually play for the

357
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Speaker 4: kick or he was just trying to run it there

358
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Speaker 4: and just put them at the goal line and then

359
00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:45,600
Speaker 4: they planned on doing some type of sneak.

360
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Speaker 2: Or something like that, because that was that was so

361
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Speaker 2: strange to me, Like normally a team would just take

362
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Speaker 2: a knee, so maybe he just didn't want like and

363
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Speaker 2: we saw this against Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's one thing.

365
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Speaker 2: Yeah, they didn't un they didn't run the ball there.

366
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Speaker 2: They actually threw they threw a fade. So it's just like,

367
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Speaker 2: I'm not sure sure if they wanted to play for

368
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Speaker 2: the field goal or not. Like I don't know what

369
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Speaker 2: the game plan was. I wish if somebody oppressor actually

370
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Speaker 2: asked them a question about because I was really confused

371
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Speaker 2: about that, Like I don't know.

372
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Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, in the in the Chiefs game, I remember

373
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Speaker 1: it was really windy and they had missed a couple

374
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Speaker 1: of kicks because of the wind, So I think that

375
00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,760
Speaker 1: was a factor there. It doesn't feel like that was

376
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Speaker 1: a factor here. And missing the extra point. The extra

377
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Speaker 1: point is twice as far out as the kick from

378
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Speaker 1: like the two yard line where it's coming, Like they

379
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Speaker 1: literally kickers make that like nine percent of the time.

380
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Speaker 1: Even the Chargers disastrous special teams should have made that one. So,

381
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Speaker 1: I mean, it was pretty clear he was not pushing

382
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Speaker 1: trying to get in on that one, and then the

383
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:39,399
Speaker 1: Browns guys came in behind him. But if you're not

384
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Speaker 1: that great, I agree with that, very smart, just kneel

385
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Speaker 1: it out and get to the field goal. But Neil

386
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Speaker 1: Why are you running? What is there to gain by running?

387
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Speaker 1: So very confusing for all the things we love about Staley,

388
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Speaker 1: that that could have cost them the game because you

389
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Speaker 1: get the touchdown, they didn't get the two, and now

390
00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:58,960
Speaker 1: Cleveland gets the ball back with a chance to score,

391
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Speaker 1: and these teams are worrying left and right. There was

392
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Speaker 1: eleven touchdowns in this game, so you definitely don't want

393
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Speaker 1: to give the Browns any chances left. You're way better

394
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Speaker 1: off to just get the field goal attempt and go

395
00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:14,080
Speaker 1: home with a win, hopefully. So I don't know, it

396
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Speaker 1: was a bit of a mess that that to me.

397
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Speaker 1: This is why I'm still a little bit worried about

398
00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:22,359
Speaker 1: the Chargers, not necessarily worried, but not also willing to

399
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:25,399
Speaker 1: call them super Bowl team because they're getting some of

400
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,439
Speaker 1: these bounces. The Chargers never get those, but they're they're

401
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:30,680
Speaker 1: they're getting some of the things to go their way.

402
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,240
Speaker 1: They're the hot team right now, but I feel like

403
00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:36,560
Speaker 1: I'm not. I can't quite get there with you on

404
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,240
Speaker 1: putting them in the Super Bowl. We both were hind

405
00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:41,399
Speaker 1: them coming to the year. So Staley Coach of the

406
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,160
Speaker 1: Year certainly is looking looking like a great pick right now.

407
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:47,680
Speaker 1: I don't know. It's it's gonna be tricky. I mean,

408
00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:49,840
Speaker 1: at least the Chargers they have Mason Crosby coming in

409
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:51,199
Speaker 1: to kick the field goal. We'll give them that.

410
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I agree with you. I mean, I

411
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 2: think there's a lot of concerns. But when you take

412
00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,679
Speaker 2: in the future, you're taking a flyer. I mean, like

413
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Speaker 2: it's staggered to fourth down, they converted. They had a

414
00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 2: success rate of fifty nine percent, and obviously at some

415
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 2: point that has to regress. And obviously the early down

416
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,840
Speaker 2: stuff is troubling. But I've never seen anything like this

417
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Speaker 2: before where it's just like you constantly have to be

418
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Speaker 2: prepared to stop this team all four downs, and I'm

419
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Speaker 2: not sure the NFL is prepared for. And it's clear

420
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 2: today because the Browns have a solid defense to stop

421
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,720
Speaker 2: a team with the offense this poet on four down,

422
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Speaker 2: it's just tough and they're gonna put that constant pressure.

423
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Speaker 1: On you for sure. So the Chargers moved to four

424
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Speaker 1: and a one. They are at the top of the

425
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Speaker 1: AFCU West. Down at the bottom of the AFCU West

426
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,960
Speaker 1: once again are the Kansas City Chiefs. So that was

427
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 1: our Sunday night game. The Chiefs played the Bills. This

428
00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 1: was a weird one. We were in a month soon.

429
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Speaker 1: For part of the game, we had like an hour

430
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:50,760
Speaker 1: long weather delay at halftime. The Bills ended up winning

431
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:53,680
Speaker 1: thirty eight to twenty. Kind of dominated most of the way.

432
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,160
Speaker 1: Josh Allen and the Bills are moving the ball anytime

433
00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,280
Speaker 1: they wanted to, and yet again the Chiefs got in

434
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 1: a big turnover trouble. We keep saying like I'll even

435
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:04,719
Speaker 1: back out. They're moving the ball however they want to.

436
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:07,399
Speaker 1: But they had four turnovers in this game. Patrick Mahomes

437
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 1: had to pick six, even though it wasn't really his

438
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 1: fault to when ofter receivers hands. Josh Allen had a

439
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,640
Speaker 1: great game, over three hundred yards and three touchdowns, had

440
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 1: a huge play near the end of the game that

441
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,680
Speaker 1: hurdle to kind of pick up the first down when

442
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:22,440
Speaker 1: the game was starting to slip a little bit out

443
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 1: of hand. Reugh show all the way. It just disastrous refs.

444
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 1: I don't even know if it favored anyone. It did

445
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 1: not favor the viewers. It certainly didn't favor either team.

446
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:34,359
Speaker 1: It felt like these calls were just so unpredictable in

447
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 1: going any direction. Is there anything to take away from

448
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:37,640
Speaker 1: this game.

449
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 2: I think the biggest thing to take away is that

450
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,640
Speaker 2: this Chiefs defense is absolutely abysmal. And the Bills were

451
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,639
Speaker 2: averaging nine point two yards per play and they end

452
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:50,919
Speaker 2: up finishing at eight point one yards per play. But

453
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 2: it was just all types of chunk plays. It was

454
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,400
Speaker 2: explosive plays. You didn't even get a chance to catch

455
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,640
Speaker 2: your breath into the drive like you'll be watching, It'll

456
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:00,359
Speaker 2: be one or two plays in the next time you know.

457
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 2: The Bills were scored early pass They had a fifty

458
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:05,920
Speaker 2: three percent success rate, and they got a first down

459
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 2: on forty seven percent of their early passing downs EPA

460
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:12,679
Speaker 2: per play zero point eight three. I mean, they just

461
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,640
Speaker 2: were absolutely dominant. The other thing I take away from

462
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:17,880
Speaker 2: it is that the Bills defense is actually for real.

463
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,359
Speaker 2: Like I came into this think getting, Okay, they played

464
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 2: the Stills, they played the Dolphins, they played the Washington

465
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:27,640
Speaker 2: football team. They also played Davis Mills, so I'm thinking, Okay,

466
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 2: this Chiefs offense is the best offense in the league

467
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 2: by far. The Bills aren't gonna know what hit them,

468
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,680
Speaker 2: and they were actually able to slow down Patrick Mahomes

469
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,680
Speaker 2: felt like they had the perfect recipe with the two

470
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 2: day deep safeties, and you're seeing that they're making the

471
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 2: Chiefs have these long drives, and when you try to

472
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,640
Speaker 2: have a long drive, you gotta be perfect. The Bills

473
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,479
Speaker 2: are for real, and I think I slept on them

474
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 2: before that.

475
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the Bills have to be considered the

476
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:58,399
Speaker 1: Super Bowl favorite right now, even with the Cardinals being undefeated.

477
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 1: Just the way Buffalo is playing. Yeah, the defense was impressive.

478
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 1: The Chiefs entered tonight. Through four games, the Chiefs that

479
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 1: only had nine fourth downs the entire season, which is

480
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 1: an absolute absurd number. I was sure that I heard

481
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 1: that wrong with the set on the broadcast. Nine fourth downs.

482
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 1: That's two per game the entire season. That's seven tonight.

483
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 1: So Buffalo got them to fourth down. The defense was good,

484
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 1: Like you hold Kansas City to twenty points. I don't

485
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 1: care what the weather is or the refshore or anything else.

486
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 1: You've done a good job. Seven fourth downs force, four

487
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 1: turnovers forced. Yeah, Josh Allen had huge first half. Buffalo

488
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 1: ran twenty four plays in the first half and scored

489
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,439
Speaker 1: twenty four points. So you're doing something pretty good when

490
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 1: you're averaging a point per play. The Bills have now

491
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:45,919
Speaker 1: led at halftime in fourteen consecutive games, which is an

492
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,679
Speaker 1: NFL record, So I think I agree with you. They

493
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 1: kind of have gone a little bit under the radar,

494
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 1: not really under the radar. The odds are up high.

495
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,640
Speaker 1: They've been the Super Bowl, one of the favorites ever

496
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 1: since the beginning. But I feel like now everyone actually

497
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 1: has to talk about them, like we actually have to admit, Okay,

498
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 1: this thing is real. The defense is real, Josh Allen

499
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:12,120
Speaker 1: is real. Even early in the season, the Bills offense

500
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:14,879
Speaker 1: wasn't quite catching up, the defense was kind of showing up,

501
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 1: and Alan looked a little bit more like two years

502
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 1: ago Alan than the possible MVP from last year. Now

503
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 1: he's coming around, although you know Chiefs defense, so we'll see.

504
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 1: But yeah, the Chiefs defense is a big problem too.

505
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:30,679
Speaker 1: They have allowed I saw at the end of the

506
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,919
Speaker 1: broadcast they've allowed twenty nine or more points each of

507
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 1: their first five games. They're the first team in NFL

508
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 1: history to do that. Sorry, they're tied. No team has

509
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 1: ever allowed more than that. So they've allowed twenty nine

510
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 1: to thirty six, thirty thirty and thirty eight points. That's

511
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 1: thirty three points a game allowed and I know it's

512
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:52,239
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. They can score thirty five perfectly fine, they

513
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 1: will in a lot of games. But you're asking a

514
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: whole lot of your offense when you have to score

515
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 1: thirty five and you can't turn it over, and you

516
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,199
Speaker 1: have to be able to like you almost need the

517
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:07,400
Speaker 1: offense to be a little less explosive. You almost need

518
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 1: in Kansas City, the offense has to keep the defense

519
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 1: off the field. They could use a few like long

520
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 1: drives and run the ball a little bit so the

521
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 1: defense gets to catch their breath, the opposite of the

522
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 1: way that everyone plays the Chiefs. So it sounds like

523
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 1: I think both of us are in on the Bills.

524
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 1: Let me ask you about the Chiefs. We have this

525
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 1: conversation a few times now. Where are we out on

526
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 1: the Chiefs? Their odds are starting to slip a little bit.

527
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 1: Mahomes is down to plus one thousand on MVP, which

528
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 1: is about the lowest we've seen that number for years.

529
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 1: At this point, the Chiefs are finally out of the

530
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:40,360
Speaker 1: top couple favorites. Is this a spot to buy low

531
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,439
Speaker 1: on the Chiefs? Or are we out?

532
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 2: They're so good offensively? I mean you said it earlier.

533
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 2: They've only had fourth downs all season before tonight, and

534
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 2: they played a Bills defense, which is obviously one of

535
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:55,399
Speaker 2: the best in the league. So I don't think you

536
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 2: can count this team out. But I'm personally not buying

537
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 2: right now. What do you I mean, are you buying?

538
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 2: What do you think?

539
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean what's wild is so Raheem and I

540
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 1: are watching this game, texting each other, Okay, we're gonna

541
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: are we gonna record? This game is done? Raheem says,

542
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 1: you know, with a few minutes left in the third quarter,

543
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 1: this game is done. The Bills are up eighteen. Let's

544
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 1: just record, and any other team in the league, I

545
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:18,879
Speaker 1: would have shut my laptop and got you know, gotten

546
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 1: ready to record it's over. But it's the Chiefs, and

547
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 1: it's like, there's no way I'm recording with twenty minutes

548
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,639
Speaker 1: left and eighteen points down that they could do that

549
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:29,920
Speaker 1: by the end of the third quarter. And so it's

550
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,959
Speaker 1: just like we give the Chiefs. I give the Chiefs

551
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 1: so much credit. Even you know, on the broadcast, the

552
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 1: Bills go up eighteen with like five minutes left, and

553
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 1: they talk about like, oh, well the lead is a

554
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 1: little bigger, and now like, no, it's over. There's five

555
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,360
Speaker 1: minutes left and they're down eighteen. The game is over.

556
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:49,199
Speaker 1: History says it's over, but Patrick Mahomes says maybe not.

557
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 1: So it's wild right now. We ring right now. The

558
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 1: Chiefs are plus one twenty five to win the division.

559
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 1: The Chargers are plus one fifteen, and the Chargers are

560
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,120
Speaker 1: two and a half games up on the Chiefs right

561
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:05,159
Speaker 1: now and really good. And it's like the Chiefs are

562
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 1: the walking dead of us play like we cannot kill

563
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,719
Speaker 1: them off because Patrick Mahomes is like leading the zombie

564
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 1: flocks still. But I don't know. I can't bet on them,

565
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: but I also can't bet against them.

566
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the play is to sit tight. We

567
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:24,120
Speaker 2: were roughing the passer pennity away from the Chiefs, having

568
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:27,680
Speaker 2: the ball down eleven with thirteen minutes to go, and.

569
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 1: From like midfield too. Yeah a score.

570
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 2: I felt robbed. I felt robbed at that opportunity. But

571
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 2: when I looked at the game, it felt like Mahomes

572
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 2: didn't have it going. It felt like the Bill's defense

573
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 2: was doing enough to slow this offense down. So that's

574
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 2: why I kind of hit you and said let's go

575
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 2: record now, because it just didn't like I'm gonna be

576
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,639
Speaker 2: honest with you, it felt like the Chiefs were in

577
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 2: a bad spot when they were down fourteen to ten

578
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 2: and had the point because Buffalo was just getting such explosive,

579
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 2: explosive plays that I just didn't see how they could

580
00:27:58,960 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 2: win that game at that point.

581
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I mean, the the Bills were my

582
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:06,120
Speaker 1: upset special for our Friday Pod, so I felt good

583
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 1: about them. But the fact that they can be doing

584
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 1: what I thought, dominating on really both sides of the

585
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:14,919
Speaker 1: ball is much. You can dominate the Chiefs offense be

586
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 1: up eighteen and still have me too terrified to turn

587
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 1: off the TV after fifteen hours of football and be like,

588
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 1: I don't know, they're only down eighteen. We'll see what happens. Mahomes,

589
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 1: you know, it's like it's it's crazy that he might

590
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 1: be playing almost you know, he's playing some of the

591
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 1: best ball of his life, Patrick Mahomes is. The numbers

592
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 1: that they're putting up are absurd right now, so you know,

593
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,680
Speaker 1: it's certainly not over for the Chiefs. They're out of

594
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 1: the playoffs. If the playoffs started right now, they're out.

595
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 1: I think that they're like the eight or nine seed.

596
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 1: They're going to make the playoffs. The offense is just

597
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 1: way too good to not make the playoffs, but they're

598
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,720
Speaker 1: probably going to get there as a five, six seven

599
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 1: wild card, you know, and like paybe the team that

600
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 1: draws Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the first round.

601
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 1: You win your division and you get your home game,

602
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 1: and there's Pat on the other side, sorry about it,

603
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 1: you know, like that might be the Bills, that might

604
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 1: be the Browns. You know, God help us. If the

605
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 1: Chiefs get the five seed and go to the road,

606
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: we might have like a road fourteen point favorite. If

607
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 1: if that's the Chiefs and they play whoever wins the

608
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 1: AFC South, Like can you imagine Patrick Mahomes as the

609
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 1: five seed against the Titans or the Colts or that,

610
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 1: you know, the Texans, Like it is a bloodbath on

611
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 1: the route. I can't I can't wait to bet on

612
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 1: that one. So let's let's flip from the AFC over

613
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 1: to the NFC. We've gone long on those three games.

614
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 1: Let's talk about a couple other games here, because the

615
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 1: NFC wildcard picture is kind of getting blown wide open.

616
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 1: We're gonna come back to that a little bit. But

617
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 1: let's talk first about the Saints, and the football team

618
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 1: Washington was defeated thirty three to twenty two. Wild game.

619
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 1: Jameis Winston had a hail Mary touchdown at the end

620
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: of the first half, But really, isn't every Jameis Winston

621
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 1: pass a hill Mary at some point? Him Taylor Heineke.

622
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 1: It's like anything happen on any play with either one

623
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 1: of these guys. Like, I don't know if Taylor Heinick

624
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 1: is the new Gymis Winston, or if Heinekey is the

625
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 1: new Daniel Jones, or if Daniel Jones the new Jameis Winston.

626
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 1: They're all the same guy that, un any given a

627
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 1: play can like run or make some playoff and do

628
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 1: something amazing some sandlot play, or just do the absolute

629
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 1: biggest disaster play. So Heinekey had two picks, Jamis had

630
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 1: a pick on the first possession Saint twin thirty three

631
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 1: to twenty two. I have no idea what I learned

632
00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 1: from the scam.

633
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 2: I mean, I learned the same thing that I've learned

634
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 2: the entire season. The Washington football team's defense is the

635
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 2: most overrated unit in football, and it was kind of

636
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 2: obvious that we would see the type of game that

637
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 2: we saw from the Saints last Sunday. I actually gave

638
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 2: out the over on the hot read last week. I

639
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 2: think I gave it out forty three and a half

640
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 2: and it moved up to about forty four. We actually

641
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 2: saw some resistance in the market because the Washington football

642
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 2: team came in with such injuries and actually responded to

643
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 2: that resistance by actually buying out of my bed. But

644
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 2: this felt like an over. They had it set so

645
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 2: low because Washington still has this perception of being this

646
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 2: great defense, but there anything but that, and unfortunately, the

647
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 2: offense isn't good enough to overcome what you're seeing defensively.

648
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 2: And when I when I watched the first half of

649
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 2: the game, it felt like the Saints literally had beat themselves.

650
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 2: They had a fumble, they had an interception from Jamis

651
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 2: and that's what kept Washington in this game. But the

652
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,880
Speaker 2: Saints won every category. I'm not high on this Washington team.

653
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 2: The Cowboys are Karee mccoppinet in that division, and I

654
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 2: think the Saints they're gonna challenge for a wildcard spot.

655
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 1: I really do Washington. Washington moved the ball seven times.

656
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 1: They have the ball inside the thirty five. You know

657
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 1: in what I would call scoring range. And on those

658
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 1: seven times they score two touchdowns, settle for three field goals,

659
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 1: and turn it over twice. So that's the problem. You

660
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 1: lose by eleven. Well that's three field goal each time.

661
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 1: You're leaving four points on the table, so that's twelve

662
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 1: points plus two turners. You got nothing out of it,

663
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 1: and they lost by eleven. So, you know, I thought

664
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 1: that the Saints defense was the unit that was going

665
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: to dominate. That didn't happen in this game either. To me.

666
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 1: New Orleans and Washington are two of the teams that

667
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 1: I'm the least excited about on at this point. It's

668
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 1: because I have no idea what's going to happen with them.

669
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 1: You know, maybe I don't even know. I was gonna

670
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 1: say maybe overs, but then you see the Saints just

671
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 1: go and lay a complete egg and not even score points.

672
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 1: So it's almost like just hope that the line is

673
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 1: kind of big and take the opposite. Just take the

674
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 1: points and take the money line, and take whatever the

675
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 1: extra juices that the books are giving you, because anything

676
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 1: can happen in these games. But there are two of

677
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 1: the teams that I don't have a great read on

678
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 1: I don't know about the Saints for the wild card.

679
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 1: We'll come back to that in a second. Let's talk

680
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 1: about Eagles Panthers. So the Eagles come back to win

681
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 1: that one. They only had six points heading into the

682
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 1: last play of the third quarter and then came back

683
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 1: and got the win twenty one to eighteen over the Panthers.

684
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold had three interceptions, the Panthers had a punk block.

685
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 1: What did you think of the sun?

686
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,959
Speaker 2: The Eagles defense kind of really saved the season. I

687
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 2: felt like Carolina had it, And honestly, I got to

688
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 2: a point where I was kind of bored with the game,

689
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 2: and I'm just like, all right, And obviously I'm from Philadelphia,

690
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 2: so my timeline is full of people from Philadelphia just

691
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 2: hating on his team. But Jaalen hes he did what

692
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 2: he had to do to pull this game out. I

693
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 2: think this Panders team is not a team that you

694
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,959
Speaker 2: really want to bet on without seeing him seeing the

695
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 2: line up. These are two average teams and you got

696
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 2: to pick your spots when you bet. A lot of

697
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 2: sharp money was on the Philadelphia Eagles, and I think

698
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 2: you might see some sharp money on the Eagles next

699
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 2: week as well. I think there's some respected betters who

700
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 2: actually respect the Eagles. I'm still the windows still out

701
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 2: for me back.

702
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, there are another one of those short underdogs that

703
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 1: that one they were ended up as two and a

704
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 1: half point dogs and got the win. We've seen that

705
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 1: happening all season long. Plus one twenty in the money line.

706
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 1: One thing I do like about this team is low

707
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 1: key Nick Sirianni, their new coach, is kind of making

708
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 1: some of those same plus ev decisions that Staley is doing.

709
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:09,879
Speaker 1: The Eagles are going four and fourth down, they're going

710
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,799
Speaker 1: for two at smart times, and they've got Jalen Hurts

711
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 1: or running quarterbacks, so using him well and that kind

712
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 1: of opens up some more of those possibilities on short

713
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 1: down opportunities. So I do like that. I feel like

714
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 1: the Eagles are kind of buying themselves a few extra

715
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 1: opportunities that way. So so at the bottom out of

716
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,359
Speaker 1: the playoffs are the Giants and Alliance. They're the only

717
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 1: two teams the NFC that have one in zero wins.

718
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 1: At the top, we got five teams. The Bucks are

719
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 1: five or sorry, the Cardinals are five and zero. They're

720
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 1: in the Bucks, Cowboys, Rams, and Packers four and one.

721
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:43,759
Speaker 1: So if we assume that those five teams are in

722
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:46,720
Speaker 1: and the Giants and Lines are out, that's five teams

723
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 1: out of our seven. That leaves nine more NFC teams

724
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 1: all stuck in the middle right now. So just to

725
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 1: set the stage, here's what we got. There are three

726
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:57,839
Speaker 1: teams at three and two Panthers, Saints, and Bears, and

727
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 1: then at two and three are the Vikings, so Washington,

728
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers, Falcons, and the Seahawks. Nine teams.

729
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,320
Speaker 1: Two spots in all likelihood come out of those teams.

730
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 1: So we do not have odds yet for of these teams,

731
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 1: but it looks like there's got to be some value

732
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 1: here on to make the playoffs or maybe to miss

733
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 1: the playoffs. So out of those ninety teams, who catches

734
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 1: your eye as a team that you think might make

735
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:22,399
Speaker 1: the playoffs?

736
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:26,919
Speaker 2: I think I want to go with the Chicago Bears. Wow, Yeah,

737
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 2: because I think they play in a division where nobody

738
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:36,280
Speaker 2: actually wants to win. The defense is it's not great,

739
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,280
Speaker 2: but I mean it's solid. I think they have something

740
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 2: with fields, and I don't know. I just don't know

741
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 2: about any of these other teams. Seattle is obviously done, Washington,

742
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 2: I told you, I don't really like the defense. The

743
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers are just going to fall too far back.

744
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 2: The Seahawks are obviously done with no Russell Wilson for

745
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:58,760
Speaker 2: the next month as he recovers from his finger surgery.

746
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 2: And I think, yeah, I think that that's probably the

747
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 2: next best selection. And if it's not the State, if

748
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:06,800
Speaker 2: it's honestly it's out of the Saints and the Bears.

749
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 1: For me, it's interesting. So I kind of went through

750
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 1: in a rank these teams. I didn't not have the

751
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:15,840
Speaker 1: Saints or the Bears as top four contenders. Here the

752
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 1: Bears schedule over the next month they played the Packers,

753
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 1: the Bucks, the Niners, and the Steelers and then they

754
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 1: hit their bye a week. That is a rough stretch

755
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,440
Speaker 1: for a rookie quarterback. And let's be honest, s Fields

756
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 1: is not looking that great right now. He's definitely not

757
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton, which is good enough, but it's not like

758
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 1: the Bears offense is really doing anything so impressive. And

759
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 1: you know, facing are they going to score enough points

760
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 1: to be the Packers or the Bucks? Are they going

761
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,840
Speaker 1: to be able to score on the Niners defense and

762
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 1: the Steelers defense?

763
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 2: I mean the four nine Ers defense is leaky, and

764
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,719
Speaker 2: saying with the Packers, I think they're love to beat

765
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 2: both of those teams.

766
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:52,320
Speaker 1: I think they're alive, but I think that they're clear

767
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:55,399
Speaker 1: underdogs in certainly the first three of those and maybe

768
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:58,320
Speaker 1: the fourth one by then. So to me, the Bears

769
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:01,680
Speaker 1: could be buried here. There is tough. I think that

770
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 1: you're ruling out the NFC West teams too quickly. Those

771
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,440
Speaker 1: both teams, the forty nine Ers and the Seahawks, I

772
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 1: think are still alive. The Seahawks maybe it's a little

773
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 1: bit of a long shot. So what I like about

774
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 1: the Seahawks is that they play the Steelers, Saints, Jaguars

775
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:19,840
Speaker 1: and then have their bye week. So those are winnable

776
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 1: games even with Gino Smith. Maybe you should be the Jaguars,

777
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:26,399
Speaker 1: because everyone should be the Jaguars. So if you win

778
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:28,840
Speaker 1: that game and then sneak a win in one of

779
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 1: the other two games and like coin flippy sort of games,

780
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:34,560
Speaker 1: then get to the bye a week and that's a month.

781
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 1: So maybe Russell Wilson's back, now that's it. He's got

782
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 1: to be back, and you got to go two and

783
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 1: one and get there. But if you do, then you

784
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 1: get to four and four you come out of the

785
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 1: bye you get Russell Wilson back. I think you have

786
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:47,280
Speaker 1: a shot. So I'm not ready to bury the Seahawks yet.

787
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 1: If Wilson's out longer, if they don't get these games now,

788
00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 1: they're definitely out. I like San Francisco. That's the team

789
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:56,200
Speaker 1: that I like out of this mix, although I like

790
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 1: them a lot better before I read the news or

791
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 1: after the game. Trey Lance and the Niners didn't get

792
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 1: the win today, but I like Wes saw from Trey

793
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:05,799
Speaker 1: Lance pretty good for a first start on the road

794
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 1: against an unbeaten team. The Niners played them pretty tough.

795
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 1: Shanahan came out and said Jimmy is still our starter

796
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 1: and also that he almost played today. So the Niners

797
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 1: going to the bye week right now, this is the

798
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:19,839
Speaker 1: time to turn things over to Trey Lance. You have

799
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 1: two weeks to get your offense ready and make this

800
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 1: Trey Lance's team. This is the time right now. I

801
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:28,120
Speaker 1: love that it sets up because then you come out

802
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 1: and after the bye week you play the Colts and

803
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 1: the Bears. Those are two winnable games, and there are

804
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 1: two games you need to get at this point. As

805
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:36,799
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers at two and three, and then

806
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 1: home against the Cardinals and the Rams. Those are tough games,

807
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:42,960
Speaker 1: but you're at home. You got a shot at those.

808
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 1: And also, this is a great chance for the Niners

809
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,240
Speaker 1: to get an early bye week. With all the injuries,

810
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 1: they have chance to get healthy a little bit, get

811
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 1: some rest. They're starting to get a little healthier as

812
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 1: it is. Kittle is still out, but the schedule is

813
00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 1: winnable here. The Niners still get to play Jacksonville, Atlanta

814
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 1: and him later in the year. So those are three

815
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 1: games I could win. The last game of the season

816
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:06,759
Speaker 1: is at the Rams. That could work out because maybe

817
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 1: the Rams are resting by then, so kind of like

818
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 1: the Niners, they're two and three. I like what I

819
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 1: saw today. I'm kind of still looking at Trey Lance's

820
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:18,360
Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year odds. This is a team I

821
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:20,319
Speaker 1: think people are going to just kind of forget about

822
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 1: during the bye week. That's how we do during the

823
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:24,800
Speaker 1: bye week. And so I think he was at about

824
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 1: seven hundred. And the way that you know Jamar Chase

825
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:30,840
Speaker 1: is playing and fields, I think Lance will slip a

826
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 1: little bit. So I like those odds. I like the

827
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:36,160
Speaker 1: Niners here. To me, the Niners and the Panthers probably

828
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 1: would be my pick. The Panthers host Minnesota next week.

829
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 1: That's a big spot for them. If Carolina can get

830
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 1: that win, then they'll be in a pretty good shape.

831
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 1: They've got a lot of pretty winnable games left. The

832
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:52,799
Speaker 1: Panthers play Giants, Falcons, Patriots, Washington Dolphins, and Falcons over

833
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 1: the next two months. That's a lot of winnable games.

834
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 1: And Caroline's defense has been pretty good. So I would

835
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 1: go with the Niners the Panthers. I don't think that

836
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 1: the odds on the Panthers when they come out are

837
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 1: gonna be worth betting on. I do think I want

838
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:06,800
Speaker 1: to play the Niners odds to make the playoffs. So

839
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 1: what do you think of you those two?

840
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:10,440
Speaker 2: See? I'm not mad at the forty nine ers. I

841
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:13,359
Speaker 2: understand the logic there. For me, Kyle Shanahan is still

842
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 2: one of the premiere play callers in this league. I

843
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:19,319
Speaker 2: just to me, I felt like he didn't give his

844
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 2: team the best chance to win today. Though I know

845
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 2: everybody's obsessed with going forward on fourth down, but a

846
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 2: lot of times in a defensive minded game, sometimes you

847
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 2: gotta say, you know what, I'm gonna take the points,

848
00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:33,839
Speaker 2: or sometimes you gotta punt the ball away and say,

849
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:36,359
Speaker 2: you know, let's play field position. And when you looked

850
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:38,840
Speaker 2: at that game, the forty nine Ers were one for

851
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 2: four on fourth down, and it's just you got a

852
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:45,400
Speaker 2: rookie quarterback, you're easing them in. Sometimes you gotta take

853
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 2: those points, and I just it was a little frustrating

854
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 2: for me to see, especially obviously I was a fort

855
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 2: nine Ers backer. I had him plus five and a half.

856
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 2: They failed on fourth down twice from the fifty and

857
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:02,919
Speaker 2: put Arizona in field goal range to pretty much ice

858
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 2: the game. So it was like very frustrating for me.

859
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 2: So I'm trying not to let that influence me. But

860
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 2: I got to push back on a Seattle comment because

861
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 2: Seattle's offense wasn't even good with Russell Wilson in the game,

862
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:19,880
Speaker 2: like in like healthy, So there's no way that I'm.

863
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 1: Expected Sales offense was like number two or number three

864
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:25,439
Speaker 1: in DVOA this season until today. They were not good.

865
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:29,719
Speaker 2: No like they're twenty fifth in EPA for play like

866
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 2: their twenty eighth and success rate. We've seen this team.

867
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 2: They played the four nine ers last week with Russell

868
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:39,480
Speaker 2: Wilson and they punted like on the first five drops.

869
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 2: Like this team, Like, here's the thing. You can pretty

870
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 2: much look at Seattle season and you can see in

871
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 2: the first half of games they were pretty they were

872
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 2: pretty dominant, but in the second half of games they

873
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 2: couldn't score. So it's just like this offense as a whole,

874
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:58,400
Speaker 2: it hasn't been very consistent. Obviously, they form well against

875
00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 2: the Rams, and they've had some real struggles. And I

876
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:06,400
Speaker 2: just think Shane Waldron, he's come out with a solid

877
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 2: game plan, but he can't make those adjustments. So now

878
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 2: you expected him to do like he had Russell Wilson.

879
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 2: Now he's supposed to do it with Gino Smith. This

880
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 2: Seattle team is done to me. If they make the playoffs,

881
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:21,400
Speaker 2: like I may run a marathon or something like. I

882
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:25,759
Speaker 2: just don't see how they survive it. I mean, maybe

883
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:27,800
Speaker 2: they could make the playoffs because we are in a

884
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 2: seven game, seventeen game season, and you know, maybe some

885
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 2: of the other wildcard teams might falter, but I have

886
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:36,799
Speaker 2: no belief in them. As far as the Panthers, I

887
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 2: think they have some issues on the offensive line. Today

888
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 2: we saw Sam Darnold. He's pressure on eighteen of his

889
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 2: thirty seven drop backs, that's forty nine percent. They really

890
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 2: need to get Christan McCaffrey back. I think when they

891
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:51,719
Speaker 2: get him back that should open some things up. But

892
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 2: this offensive line is a complete mess, and I think

893
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:57,399
Speaker 2: you can score on this team for as well as

894
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 2: their defense, as looked early in the season. We saw

895
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:02,839
Speaker 2: when they play a capable of a pony, you can

896
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 2: put some points up.

897
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that that's a fair point. I think

898
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:07,759
Speaker 1: the Panthers are going to be kind of red on

899
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:09,800
Speaker 1: the edge of things. The teams I don't want to

900
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 1: bet against here. I want to fade the Bears. That

901
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:15,240
Speaker 1: upcoming schedule is just rough for me. And I think

902
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:17,799
Speaker 1: now that they are three and two in fields looking good,

903
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 1: and they're kind of a public team with fields and

904
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:22,360
Speaker 1: in Chicago, I think that I'm going to get a

905
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:25,280
Speaker 1: chance at near even odds against them making the playoffs.

906
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 1: I like that. I'm also going to fade my Minnesota Vikings.

907
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:31,880
Speaker 1: You know, the Vikings eked out the win, got to

908
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 1: two and three to save the season, and I think

909
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 1: most Vikings fans, like myself, were almost just wishing for

910
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:38,440
Speaker 1: them to lose up that point put us out of

911
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 1: our misery, get zim Ra out here and go on

912
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 1: to the next era. So Minnesota is two and three.

913
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 1: Now here's the schedule though. These are the next six

914
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 1: games in a row for Minnesota, Panthers, Cowboys, Ravens, Chargers, Packers, Niners.

915
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 1: It's over. The Vikings aren't winning all those games. They

916
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 1: still got to play the Rams and the Packers in December.

917
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 1: They got to play the Bears twice in December. Soda

918
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 1: always has a rough time with the Bears, and Fields

919
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:04,640
Speaker 1: will have a lot more time under his belt by then.

920
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 1: The Vikings aren't making the playoffs at two and three,

921
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:10,440
Speaker 1: with that rough schedule that they needed to get a

922
00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 1: quick start. Today's win, I wondered coming into this exercise,

923
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:18,279
Speaker 1: maybe could they be the answer. They probably, all things

924
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:20,720
Speaker 1: being equal, they might be the best team on paper,

925
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 1: at least of this group of nine. But I think

926
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 1: it's over for them. So I'll be looking for their

927
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:28,719
Speaker 1: odds if it's anything close to even even something like

928
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:31,720
Speaker 1: a minus one twenty five or something to bet against

929
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:33,400
Speaker 1: the Vikings some of the playoffs. I think that's a

930
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 1: good spot for them as well. What do you think

931
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:35,160
Speaker 1: of that?

932
00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 2: See? I agree with you. I do think Minnesota's the

933
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 2: best team on paper, but I think in situations like this,

934
00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:43,720
Speaker 2: you obviously want to look at who's the best coaches,

935
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 2: And I think right now the game has kind of

936
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 2: passed Mike Zimbraba. But when you looked at that game today,

937
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 2: because Troy, they dominated the game, and they still found

938
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:57,560
Speaker 2: themselves in a position where they needed to they need

939
00:44:57,560 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 2: to score with thirty seconds left and get a field goal,

940
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:05,120
Speaker 2: and it's just you know, I spoke earlier about how

941
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:07,440
Speaker 2: I felt like Buffalo didn't play anybody, But one of

942
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 2: the things I'm realizing is that how you play those

943
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:15,280
Speaker 2: lesser teams is actually predictive of your status in this league.

944
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:19,400
Speaker 2: Buffalo went out there and absolutely dominated these teams, whereas

945
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 2: just Minnesota found themselves in a dog play and Mike

946
00:45:23,560 --> 00:45:27,040
Speaker 2: zimmer is still content to run the ball. Like I

947
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 2: had a tweet earlier where I was talking about how

948
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:34,080
Speaker 2: they didn't have to started running back, and yet they

949
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:36,919
Speaker 2: still found the need to go out there and rush

950
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:39,800
Speaker 2: more times on early downs. And you got one of

951
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 2: the best receivers in the league and Justin Jefferson, and

952
00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 2: you're still not willing to throw as much on early downs,

953
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 2: even though the success rate in the EPA and the

954
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:52,040
Speaker 2: results are saying you should open it up a little

955
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:55,759
Speaker 2: bit more. And you saw of the pass plays that

956
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:58,799
Speaker 2: they had to get down the field to win the game.

957
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:01,359
Speaker 2: Where was that all all gay? And I think that's

958
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:02,840
Speaker 2: a concern for me. As far as the Vike and

959
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:03,520
Speaker 2: swagrew with you.

960
00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, both Zimmer and Cousins have proven that they are

961
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:09,360
Speaker 1: not nimble. They're not able to kind of update and

962
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 1: change the game plan, be able to make up things

963
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:14,920
Speaker 1: as they go. It's a big problem because the NFL

964
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:17,400
Speaker 1: now is all about matchups and adaptation and it's just

965
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:20,760
Speaker 1: not happening. So let's whip through the rest of Sunday

966
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:23,279
Speaker 1: Action to wrap up Week five. We've talked about a

967
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 1: few of these games, but the forty nine ers turn

968
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 1: it over on downs four times. As Arizona spoiled Trey

969
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 1: Lance's debut in the Desert, Cardinals won seventeen to ten.

970
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:35,839
Speaker 1: The game went away under Arizona remains undefeated. Arizona might

971
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 1: be the new center of the sports universe right now.

972
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 1: Suns made the NBA Finals lost to the Bucks. The

973
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 1: Mercury made the WNBA Finals and are losing to the

974
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 1: Sky Right now, maybe the Cardinals lose the Super Bowl

975
00:46:47,080 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 1: to the Bills of the Browns, so we're kind of

976
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:51,560
Speaker 1: trending in that direction right now. We'll see Sam Darnold

977
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:54,840
Speaker 1: through with three interceptions in ugly loss of the Eagles.

978
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 1: Those two offense had the lowest EPA of the week,

979
00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 1: three touchdowns, five turnovers on two twenty eight possessions combined.

980
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 1: The Vikings were up ten with two and a half

981
00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 1: minutes left before another miraculous Lions comeback fell short. Detroit

982
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:10,040
Speaker 1: actually went for two and took the lead with thirty

983
00:47:10,040 --> 00:47:13,439
Speaker 1: seven seconds left, but Cousins connected three passes and Greg

984
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 1: Joseph actually made a field goal for once for the Vikings,

985
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:20,080
Speaker 1: a fifty four yarder for the win. Somehow in under

986
00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:24,319
Speaker 1: a month, the Lions lost exactly nineteen to seventeen on

987
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:28,120
Speaker 1: a long field goal twice in the same month. Heartbreak

988
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 1: City for money line backers, another plus three hundred gallon

989
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:35,600
Speaker 1: awry for them a wonky game in Houston. They had

990
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:38,600
Speaker 1: three missed extra points in the first quarter. They had

991
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:41,520
Speaker 1: a flee flicker touchdown, multiple Davis Mills jump balls that

992
00:47:41,600 --> 00:47:44,319
Speaker 1: somehow worked out. Mac Jones led a Lake come back

993
00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:46,160
Speaker 1: to eke out a twenty five to twenty two win.

994
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:48,920
Speaker 1: If the Patriots game against the Bucks last week was

995
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:51,720
Speaker 1: a moral victory, this kind of felt like a moral loss,

996
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:54,400
Speaker 1: but they got the win. The Raiders Layden Egg in

997
00:47:54,520 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 1: Vegas justin Fields. He got the Barriers to three and two.

998
00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:01,840
Speaker 1: Ugly game. Both teams under two or six yards on offense,

999
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:04,960
Speaker 1: so an easy under there. The Titans rolled the Jaguars

1000
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 1: thirty seven to nineteen. Derrick Henry another monster game, three touchdowns,

1001
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:12,160
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty yards. Dude is on pace for

1002
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:15,480
Speaker 1: four hundred and eighty three carries this season, which is

1003
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 1: an absolutely absurd number. Jacksonville twenty game losing streak, first

1004
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:23,239
Speaker 1: team since nineteen seventy seven to do that, and we

1005
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:26,719
Speaker 1: are sending them to London next week. Giants fans, hope

1006
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 1: you enjoyed your win. Daniel Jones, Saguon Barkley, Kenny Galladay

1007
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:33,320
Speaker 1: all hurt. Dallas Bleute wide open late forty four to

1008
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:36,480
Speaker 1: twenty for an easy win. The Broncos had a late comeback,

1009
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:38,800
Speaker 1: but Teddy Bridge orders picked off in the end zone.

1010
00:48:39,200 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin remains over five hundred straight up as an underdog.

1011
00:48:43,280 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh won twenty seven to nineteen. The Bucks won the

1012
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:50,919
Speaker 1: Battle of Florida forty five to seventeen. Tom Brady threw

1013
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 1: five touchdowns against the Dolphins and got his MVP campaign

1014
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 1: back on track. And if you forgot about Sunday Morning

1015
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:01,360
Speaker 1: football in London, you didn't miss much. It was an

1016
00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:04,080
Speaker 1: ugly matchup of two bottom of the table squads, with

1017
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 1: Atlanta controlling pace of play in the first half and

1018
00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 1: scoring a late goal to put New York FC away,

1019
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 1: leaving the Jets firmly in the relegation zone. Falcons cover

1020
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:16,440
Speaker 1: butt a field goal with twenty two seconds left, hit

1021
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 1: the over in a rough beat. If you're on that one,

1022
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:21,879
Speaker 1: great news. If you enjoy a terrible morning football, We're

1023
00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:25,400
Speaker 1: back next week, Dolphins Jaguars. We're sending our best to London.

1024
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 1: All right, let's hear a quick word from our sponsor

1025
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:30,080
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1026
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:36,200
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1049
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1050
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1051
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1052
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1053
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1054
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1055
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:06,520
Speaker 3: Thanks so much for listening. Let's get back to the

1056
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 3: show all right.

1057
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:13,160
Speaker 1: Monday Night, Indianapolis Colts Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are seven

1058
00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:16,719
Speaker 1: point favorites. This is a rivalry game. That's the sort

1059
00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 1: of thing that happens when a city literally steals your

1060
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:25,960
Speaker 1: team overnight. Robert Ersa March twenty eighth, nineteen eighty four,

1061
00:51:26,440 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 1: packed up the team and drove off to Indianapolis overnight.

1062
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:32,759
Speaker 1: These teams don't like each other a lot. We have

1063
00:51:32,880 --> 00:51:35,000
Speaker 1: that great thirty for thirty, the band that wouldn't die.

1064
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 1: The Baltimore bands stayed behind. These teams don't like each other.

1065
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:41,760
Speaker 1: But you know, nineteen eighty four, most of these players

1066
00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:46,000
Speaker 1: winning alive when that happened. So Ravens Colts, the Ravens

1067
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:47,799
Speaker 1: are a touchdown favorite. Who do you like here?

1068
00:51:48,640 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 2: So for me, actually gave out. The Baltimore Ravens won

1069
00:51:51,760 --> 00:51:54,799
Speaker 2: a teaser. So if you want to actually open up

1070
00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:58,719
Speaker 2: your Week six NFL betting with the Baltimore Ravens on

1071
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:01,040
Speaker 2: the teaser, season that down for seven and a half

1072
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:03,360
Speaker 2: to one and a half. That's a good play. Actually,

1073
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:06,680
Speaker 2: the teaser I gave out on the video last Tuesday

1074
00:52:06,719 --> 00:52:11,200
Speaker 2: was the Minnesota Vikings minus one and a half Baltimore

1075
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:13,759
Speaker 2: Ravens minus one and a half. That got there with

1076
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:16,720
Speaker 2: the late field goal. But I actually like the under

1077
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:19,520
Speaker 2: in this game, under forty six and a half. One

1078
00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:21,640
Speaker 2: of the things that you have to recognize is that

1079
00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 2: this Ravens defense is actually getting healthier, and I think

1080
00:52:25,040 --> 00:52:27,400
Speaker 2: they can put some pressure on Carson Wentz behind this

1081
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:30,880
Speaker 2: offensive line that ranks just twenty ninth in ESPN's past

1082
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 2: block block rate, So I think that could be the

1083
00:52:35,200 --> 00:52:37,640
Speaker 2: biggest difference in the game as far as slowing things down.

1084
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:42,279
Speaker 2: The Coats there, they're pretty solid defensively, and I think

1085
00:52:42,320 --> 00:52:44,440
Speaker 2: the Ravens they run the ball so much. I'm just

1086
00:52:44,480 --> 00:52:47,439
Speaker 2: not expecting a really hot scoring game. So I think

1087
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:49,319
Speaker 2: under forty six there's some value there.

1088
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you, oner I think that is

1089
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:55,000
Speaker 1: the best play on this game. These teams unders are

1090
00:52:55,120 --> 00:52:58,000
Speaker 1: five and three so far this season. The three of

1091
00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:01,200
Speaker 1: that didn't go under were games again the Chiefs, the Raiders,

1092
00:53:01,200 --> 00:53:02,759
Speaker 1: and the Rams. Yeah, you're probably not going to go

1093
00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:05,879
Speaker 1: under when you're playing offenses like that. So when they're not,

1094
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:08,799
Speaker 1: when they're facing teams like each other, they're going under.

1095
00:53:08,840 --> 00:53:10,960
Speaker 1: They're not scoring a lot of points. The other thing

1096
00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:13,719
Speaker 1: they have to love as an underbetter is the offensive

1097
00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:16,000
Speaker 1: lines are all sorts of banged up in this game.

1098
00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:19,279
Speaker 1: The Colts still missing Qwentn Griffin, who's their best and

1099
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 1: most important player. They're still missing Braden Smith, that right tackle,

1100
00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:25,720
Speaker 1: so they're missing their left guard and the right tackle.

1101
00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 1: That is going to hurt the team it has all year,

1102
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:30,920
Speaker 1: especially while Carson Wentz still is not healthy himself. It's

1103
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:34,840
Speaker 1: getting a little better, but not very mobile. The Ravens

1104
00:53:34,880 --> 00:53:38,320
Speaker 1: still missing Ronnie Stanley, their star left tackle, still missing

1105
00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:41,160
Speaker 1: their left guard as well, and their right tackle Villanueva

1106
00:53:41,239 --> 00:53:44,319
Speaker 1: might be out he's questionable, so that's again two maybe

1107
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:47,359
Speaker 1: three alignment. And remember Lamar Jackson is still a little

1108
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 1: bit banged up. He's playing through a back injury. So

1109
00:53:50,000 --> 00:53:54,040
Speaker 1: what happens if both offensive lines are injured. That favors

1110
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 1: a defense, and it puts them especially. Both these defenses

1111
00:53:56,719 --> 00:53:59,560
Speaker 1: are good. The Colts defense is good. Darius Leonard is

1112
00:53:59,600 --> 00:54:02,239
Speaker 1: back and looking, you know, the Colts defense is playing

1113
00:54:02,320 --> 00:54:06,040
Speaker 1: well now. So neither one of these teams is very

1114
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:09,080
Speaker 1: good on a third down. Also, so this feels like

1115
00:54:09,719 --> 00:54:12,200
Speaker 1: kind of a bit of an ugly game. Maybe we

1116
00:54:12,280 --> 00:54:14,640
Speaker 1: might get a bunch of three and outs. These are

1117
00:54:14,680 --> 00:54:17,520
Speaker 1: both teams that really want to run the ball. I

1118
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:19,799
Speaker 1: think that's going to move the clock. We're gonna get,

1119
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:21,719
Speaker 1: you know, not as many possessions as some of these

1120
00:54:21,719 --> 00:54:24,719
Speaker 1: other games. So a lot of running the ball, some

1121
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:28,200
Speaker 1: three and outs and punts back and forth. One thing

1122
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:30,200
Speaker 1: that I have my eye on the Ravens have been

1123
00:54:30,280 --> 00:54:32,120
Speaker 1: elite in the red zone and the Colts have been

1124
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:34,239
Speaker 1: awful in the red zone when they do get there,

1125
00:54:34,680 --> 00:54:36,920
Speaker 1: So that could be a swing factor in this game.

1126
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:40,440
Speaker 1: I have to push back though. The one thing that

1127
00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:42,719
Speaker 1: I disagree with what you said, I don't want the

1128
00:54:42,800 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 1: Ravens teas here because I think the Colts are live

1129
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:50,080
Speaker 1: and the reason is this, and I would I don't

1130
00:54:50,080 --> 00:54:51,920
Speaker 1: know that I want to bet on Colts plus seven.

1131
00:54:52,040 --> 00:54:54,920
Speaker 1: I like the under better, but if you have that

1132
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:59,880
Speaker 1: game that we've subscribed, this ugly game, close, low scoring,

1133
00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:02,680
Speaker 1: tough to get the points. Seven is a lot of

1134
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:05,440
Speaker 1: points in that spot. So if you if you, if

1135
00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:08,520
Speaker 1: you take the under, then the Colts right now are

1136
00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:10,239
Speaker 1: plus two to fifty on the money line. That's an

1137
00:55:10,239 --> 00:55:13,359
Speaker 1: implied twenty nine percent to win. I think that's low.

1138
00:55:14,040 --> 00:55:16,399
Speaker 1: I think, you know, even if you say the Colts

1139
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:18,600
Speaker 1: are only thirty three percent to win, that should be

1140
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:20,680
Speaker 1: a plus two hundred money line, So that's it still

1141
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:23,640
Speaker 1: is a significant swing. So I think that there's some

1142
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:27,439
Speaker 1: odds here that favor the Colts, just not necessarily because

1143
00:55:27,440 --> 00:55:29,240
Speaker 1: I like the Colts, because I don't like the Colts.

1144
00:55:29,280 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 1: I don't trust them right now. But to me, the play,

1145
00:55:32,840 --> 00:55:34,600
Speaker 1: you know, you know me, I'm I was looking for

1146
00:55:34,680 --> 00:55:38,480
Speaker 1: a more aggressive read. So if I like the under,

1147
00:55:38,880 --> 00:55:41,319
Speaker 1: then that compels me to also think the Colts are

1148
00:55:41,360 --> 00:55:43,720
Speaker 1: going to have a shot in this one at But MGM,

1149
00:55:43,800 --> 00:55:45,920
Speaker 1: right now you can play the Colts money line and

1150
00:55:46,160 --> 00:55:49,879
Speaker 1: under together at plus five hundred. So now we have

1151
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:52,440
Speaker 1: that low scoring game that we think we're getting anyways,

1152
00:55:52,520 --> 00:55:55,840
Speaker 1: and the Colts win the game, that's implied seventeen percent.

1153
00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:58,520
Speaker 1: If we get the under, and it's a close game,

1154
00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:00,919
Speaker 1: and it's going to be a one plus thing late

1155
00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:03,640
Speaker 1: and we'll see what happens. The Colts are live. I

1156
00:56:03,680 --> 00:56:06,279
Speaker 1: like them at plus five hundred, you know, not saying

1157
00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:08,640
Speaker 1: they're gonna win. I think the Ravens would win, but

1158
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:10,279
Speaker 1: if you give me a one out of six chance,

1159
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:11,839
Speaker 1: I think the Colts are a better shot than that.

1160
00:56:12,600 --> 00:56:14,200
Speaker 2: I think. The one thing you do have to remember

1161
00:56:14,239 --> 00:56:17,200
Speaker 2: is that the Colts are playing their third straight road game,

1162
00:56:17,280 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 2: so I just don't like the spot of that. Obviously,

1163
00:56:20,160 --> 00:56:24,120
Speaker 2: they went they struggled against Tennessee, then they went over

1164
00:56:24,160 --> 00:56:27,120
Speaker 2: to Miami, and even that in the first quarter you

1165
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:31,799
Speaker 2: saw they didn't dominate from from the open stretch. So

1166
00:56:31,880 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 2: I just think they're they're fighting an uphill battle against

1167
00:56:34,640 --> 00:56:37,239
Speaker 2: the Ravens team who is probably amongst the best in

1168
00:56:37,280 --> 00:56:40,120
Speaker 2: the league, and we're not necessarily giving them that type

1169
00:56:40,160 --> 00:56:42,560
Speaker 2: of credit. So I think the the Ravens actually get

1170
00:56:42,560 --> 00:56:43,040
Speaker 2: it done here.

1171
00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:44,880
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't know if i'd call the Ravens the

1172
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:46,440
Speaker 1: best in the league, but if they do, if they

1173
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:48,359
Speaker 1: take care of business here, then maybe I'll give them

1174
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:50,600
Speaker 1: a little bit more respect. I'm a bit worried too

1175
00:56:50,640 --> 00:56:52,960
Speaker 1: about how the Ravens will move the ball. We know

1176
00:56:53,000 --> 00:56:55,160
Speaker 1: they love to run the ball, but the Colts defense

1177
00:56:55,200 --> 00:56:57,920
Speaker 1: has been number five and run dvoa. That's what the

1178
00:56:58,040 --> 00:57:00,200
Speaker 1: Ravens are good at. The Colts. The way to beat

1179
00:57:00,239 --> 00:57:02,359
Speaker 1: the Colts is by the air their number twenty six

1180
00:57:02,400 --> 00:57:05,480
Speaker 1: and passing defense dv away. But do we really trust

1181
00:57:05,520 --> 00:57:08,520
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson to do that? Do we actually trust Markis

1182
00:57:08,560 --> 00:57:10,719
Speaker 1: Brown to catch the ball when he hits them and

1183
00:57:10,800 --> 00:57:14,719
Speaker 1: stride for the touchdown? You know? Maybe? But that's why

1184
00:57:14,719 --> 00:57:17,200
Speaker 1: I'm doubting this a little bit. The line that is

1185
00:57:17,280 --> 00:57:19,439
Speaker 1: just it's a numbers play. The number seems a little

1186
00:57:19,440 --> 00:57:22,000
Speaker 1: too high. The money line number seems like there's a

1187
00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:25,240
Speaker 1: little bit of play to my advantage. I definitely don't

1188
00:57:25,240 --> 00:57:28,600
Speaker 1: feel good about it. Like Simon Ellis says on the Favorites,

1189
00:57:28,680 --> 00:57:30,919
Speaker 1: this is gross. I don't like this. I don't want

1190
00:57:30,920 --> 00:57:33,320
Speaker 1: to bet the Colts. I'm just em betting the number

1191
00:57:33,760 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 1: at plus five hundred. I think that though, if you

1192
00:57:37,160 --> 00:57:39,440
Speaker 1: want the safest play out of this that we both

1193
00:57:39,440 --> 00:57:43,080
Speaker 1: feel the best about, just take the under and wait

1194
00:57:43,080 --> 00:57:46,560
Speaker 1: for an ugly game, root for defense and see what happens.

1195
00:57:47,480 --> 00:57:49,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's the way to go, all.

1196
00:57:49,720 --> 00:57:52,200
Speaker 1: Right, well, let's get our Week six hot red here

1197
00:57:52,240 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 1: and then get out of here. So I will go

1198
00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:58,120
Speaker 1: first on this one. Speaking of defense, I am actually

1199
00:57:58,200 --> 00:58:00,480
Speaker 1: going to play my first hot read toe. I don't

1200
00:58:00,480 --> 00:58:03,640
Speaker 1: play a lot of totals, but Thursday night Tampa Bay

1201
00:58:03,920 --> 00:58:06,960
Speaker 1: in Philadelphia. They've got the total set at fifty three

1202
00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:08,920
Speaker 1: and a half on this one, and I understand the

1203
00:58:09,000 --> 00:58:12,400
Speaker 1: Bucks score all sorts of points, so it always feels

1204
00:58:12,480 --> 00:58:14,800
Speaker 1: like Tampa could hit that on their own. I'm taking

1205
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:17,400
Speaker 1: the under. Here's what I saw. I looked in Action Labs.

1206
00:58:17,600 --> 00:58:19,520
Speaker 1: Fifty three and a half is a lot, and my

1207
00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:22,600
Speaker 1: instinct tells me when I watch Thursday Night a football,

1208
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:25,959
Speaker 1: it's ugly. These teams are not ready. They're banged up,

1209
00:58:26,480 --> 00:58:29,320
Speaker 1: they don't quite they're not sharp, they're not ready for

1210
00:58:29,360 --> 00:58:31,560
Speaker 1: a big week. I hate Thursday games. I don't need

1211
00:58:31,560 --> 00:58:33,880
Speaker 1: a Thursday game. I'd rather see the teams play at

1212
00:58:33,920 --> 00:58:36,720
Speaker 1: full strength on Sunday. Instead, we get this kind of

1213
00:58:36,760 --> 00:58:39,400
Speaker 1: like halfway game plan. So here's what I saw in

1214
00:58:39,440 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 1: Action LABS. Games that open at fifty three or higher,

1215
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:44,360
Speaker 1: and we're at fifty three and a half here. We

1216
00:58:44,440 --> 00:58:47,680
Speaker 1: have seventeen Thursday night games like that. The under is

1217
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:51,760
Speaker 1: thirteen and four in those games, seventy seven percent cover rate,

1218
00:58:52,120 --> 00:58:54,360
Speaker 1: and the under is covering by more than ten points

1219
00:58:54,400 --> 00:58:57,480
Speaker 1: a game in those games, so forty eight percent ROI.

1220
00:58:57,520 --> 00:59:01,560
Speaker 1: In fact, just last Thursday, the Rams and the Seahawks

1221
00:59:01,560 --> 00:59:04,360
Speaker 1: are this exact game. That game opened at fifty three

1222
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:07,400
Speaker 1: and a half, this exact line. It finished at forty

1223
00:59:07,400 --> 00:59:11,439
Speaker 1: three points, ten points under the spread. Exactly what we're

1224
00:59:11,440 --> 00:59:15,080
Speaker 1: expecting here. So I think that the Eagles, they played

1225
00:59:15,080 --> 00:59:17,680
Speaker 1: some pretty good defense for the most part. They run

1226
00:59:17,760 --> 00:59:21,480
Speaker 1: the ball out, they'll slow things down. The Bucks they

1227
00:59:21,520 --> 00:59:23,320
Speaker 1: can score a lot, but they haven't done that every

1228
00:59:23,320 --> 00:59:25,640
Speaker 1: game this season. So I like the under fifty three

1229
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:26,200
Speaker 1: and a half.

1230
00:59:26,960 --> 00:59:29,760
Speaker 2: I like what you said. I'm rong with that. For me,

1231
00:59:29,760 --> 00:59:33,080
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the Cleveland Browns minus three. They're

1232
00:59:33,120 --> 00:59:37,040
Speaker 2: taking on the Arizona Cardinals, the undefeated Arizona Cardinals. This

1233
00:59:37,120 --> 00:59:40,560
Speaker 2: Cleveland Browns team, to me is for real, and they've

1234
00:59:40,560 --> 00:59:43,560
Speaker 2: played some dominant games against the Kansas City Chiefs and

1235
00:59:44,360 --> 00:59:46,640
Speaker 2: the Los Angeles Chargers and they weren't able to get

1236
00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:49,320
Speaker 2: to win. But I think there's some things that I

1237
00:59:49,360 --> 00:59:53,320
Speaker 2: think they can capitalize on in this matchup. The Cardinals

1238
00:59:53,400 --> 00:59:56,640
Speaker 2: have really struggled to stop the run this season, the

1239
00:59:56,800 --> 01:00:00,320
Speaker 2: twenty ninth and Russia success rate, they're nineteenth epa play

1240
01:00:00,720 --> 01:00:05,080
Speaker 2: and their last and explosive run defense. So I think

1241
01:00:05,120 --> 01:00:08,440
Speaker 2: that creates an ideal scenario for Nick Chubb and Kareem

1242
01:00:08,560 --> 01:00:11,520
Speaker 2: Hunt to actually go out there and actually run the

1243
01:00:11,520 --> 01:00:14,440
Speaker 2: ball down their throat and keep Kyler Murray in this

1244
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:17,760
Speaker 2: explosive offense off the field. And when you look at

1245
01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:20,360
Speaker 2: the way they played San Francisco, to me, san Francisco

1246
01:00:20,480 --> 01:00:22,919
Speaker 2: was live in that game. They won the yardists three

1247
01:00:22,960 --> 01:00:25,400
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty eight to three hundred and four, yards

1248
01:00:25,400 --> 01:00:29,320
Speaker 2: per play five point seven to five point one. They

1249
01:00:29,360 --> 01:00:32,040
Speaker 2: had more rushing yards one fifty two to ninety four.

1250
01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:34,880
Speaker 2: But the biggest thing difference in that game is that

1251
01:00:34,920 --> 01:00:38,479
Speaker 2: San Francisco was just one for five on fourth down

1252
01:00:38,720 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 2: and they were only fifty percent in the red zone.

1253
01:00:41,560 --> 01:00:44,520
Speaker 2: So you had some big swings in that game where

1254
01:00:45,160 --> 01:00:46,760
Speaker 2: you actually had them on a goal line, they got

1255
01:00:46,760 --> 01:00:51,520
Speaker 2: a goal line stop, You had them at midfield twice,

1256
01:00:51,200 --> 01:00:54,960
Speaker 2: they got stopped on four five on fourth down, you

1257
01:00:55,080 --> 01:00:57,960
Speaker 2: had them in field goal range, they don't take the points.

1258
01:00:58,160 --> 01:01:01,439
Speaker 2: They get stopped on fourth down, seventeen to ten game,

1259
01:01:02,280 --> 01:01:05,640
Speaker 2: it could have easily been twenty to It could have

1260
01:01:05,640 --> 01:01:10,240
Speaker 2: been twenty three seventeen or twenty three fourteen Arizona, I

1261
01:01:10,280 --> 01:01:13,560
Speaker 2: mean San Francisco. So I think Cleveland being at home,

1262
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:16,960
Speaker 2: they're in a good spot. Arizona's got to play them early.

1263
01:01:17,080 --> 01:01:20,320
Speaker 2: East Coast Tom, I love the spot for the Cleveland Browns.

1264
01:01:20,680 --> 01:01:22,520
Speaker 2: Then maybe some two and a half's in the market.

1265
01:01:22,720 --> 01:01:25,200
Speaker 2: Maybe even want to wait on this a little bit

1266
01:01:25,240 --> 01:01:27,520
Speaker 2: because we all know the public is at will be

1267
01:01:27,600 --> 01:01:29,840
Speaker 2: on Arizona. But if you get a two and a half,

1268
01:01:29,960 --> 01:01:31,800
Speaker 2: I think I would bet that now. I even like

1269
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:32,640
Speaker 2: the three to be honest.

1270
01:01:34,040 --> 01:01:37,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I need to think on this one because I

1271
01:01:37,480 --> 01:01:39,880
Speaker 1: like the matchup. I like the run game they're talking about.

1272
01:01:39,960 --> 01:01:42,440
Speaker 1: That was why both of us like San Francisco against

1273
01:01:42,480 --> 01:01:44,400
Speaker 1: Arizona today. We thought that they'd run the ball, and

1274
01:01:44,440 --> 01:01:46,920
Speaker 1: they did run the ball pretty well. Trey Lance ran well.

1275
01:01:47,320 --> 01:01:49,560
Speaker 1: So I like Cleveland to be able to run the ball,

1276
01:01:49,560 --> 01:01:52,360
Speaker 1: control the clock. I like their defense. They're playing really

1277
01:01:52,360 --> 01:01:55,840
Speaker 1: well right now. The problem is Arizona is a short

1278
01:01:55,880 --> 01:01:58,520
Speaker 1: underdog here. We've seen that what short underdogs have done

1279
01:01:58,560 --> 01:02:00,920
Speaker 1: this season, that's not a great bought to bet against

1280
01:02:00,960 --> 01:02:05,760
Speaker 1: and Arizona by Action Labs. Unbeaten underdogs on week three

1281
01:02:05,840 --> 01:02:08,960
Speaker 1: or week four or later. Unbeaten underdogs are pretty rare.

1282
01:02:09,040 --> 01:02:11,320
Speaker 1: They don't happen very often, and they are thirty one

1283
01:02:11,400 --> 01:02:14,120
Speaker 1: and twenty three and two against the spread, so they

1284
01:02:14,160 --> 01:02:17,600
Speaker 1: cover that fifty seven percent of the time. So I'm

1285
01:02:17,640 --> 01:02:20,160
Speaker 1: a little torn on this one. I like the Browns matchup,

1286
01:02:20,520 --> 01:02:24,240
Speaker 1: the trends really like Arizona here. For me, it's probably

1287
01:02:24,240 --> 01:02:25,960
Speaker 1: a spot where I'm gonna wait and see where the

1288
01:02:26,000 --> 01:02:29,120
Speaker 1: money does come. If the line moves, you know, especially

1289
01:02:29,160 --> 01:02:32,160
Speaker 1: at three half point in one direction or the other direction,

1290
01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:35,280
Speaker 1: might swing dramatically on how we're playing this one. So

1291
01:02:35,800 --> 01:02:38,360
Speaker 1: I think it's an interesting one for sure. Yes, it's

1292
01:02:38,400 --> 01:02:40,000
Speaker 1: really interesting. What's your next pit?

1293
01:02:40,440 --> 01:02:40,800
Speaker 2: All right?

1294
01:02:40,840 --> 01:02:43,400
Speaker 1: So my other hot read, I'm just gonna keep this easy.

1295
01:02:43,520 --> 01:02:46,960
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs on the road at Washington are minus

1296
01:02:47,040 --> 01:02:49,200
Speaker 1: six and a half right now, I'm grabbing it. I'm

1297
01:02:49,200 --> 01:02:53,360
Speaker 1: grabbing it before at seven. Washington's pass defense can't stop anybody.

1298
01:02:53,840 --> 01:02:55,760
Speaker 1: I'm not afraid of the Chiefs. I'm not afraid of

1299
01:02:55,800 --> 01:02:58,880
Speaker 1: the back door. With Tyler Heineke, Kansas City is going

1300
01:02:58,880 --> 01:03:02,160
Speaker 1: to score points. They're two and three. They gotta stop

1301
01:03:02,200 --> 01:03:04,400
Speaker 1: screwing around. They gotta go out and get their points

1302
01:03:04,440 --> 01:03:06,760
Speaker 1: and get the win. We saw a week ago the

1303
01:03:06,840 --> 01:03:10,360
Speaker 1: Chiefs actually won and covered for once finally, so I'm

1304
01:03:10,360 --> 01:03:12,840
Speaker 1: not so afraid of that that trend that had been

1305
01:03:12,880 --> 01:03:15,520
Speaker 1: all the one score games for a while. There's no

1306
01:03:15,680 --> 01:03:19,480
Speaker 1: way this line is not moving toward Kansas City against Washington.

1307
01:03:19,520 --> 01:03:21,360
Speaker 1: Come on, we're gonna get to seven. We're gonna get

1308
01:03:21,400 --> 01:03:23,680
Speaker 1: past seven. I'm gonna grab you for the key number.

1309
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:24,400
Speaker 1: I'm gonna trust the.

1310
01:03:24,440 --> 01:03:26,760
Speaker 2: Chiefs, like I said earlier, is one of the most

1311
01:03:26,760 --> 01:03:29,840
Speaker 2: overrated units in football, but it's still getting at respect.

1312
01:03:30,200 --> 01:03:33,840
Speaker 2: And I think you're asking a lot for Tilahinnikey to

1313
01:03:33,880 --> 01:03:36,240
Speaker 2: go point for point with Patrick Mahomes, So I agree

1314
01:03:36,280 --> 01:03:36,600
Speaker 2: with you.

1315
01:03:36,880 --> 01:03:38,800
Speaker 1: All right. That is gonna wrap it up today at

1316
01:03:38,800 --> 01:03:42,240
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast. Please make sure to rate, subscribe,

1317
01:03:42,280 --> 01:03:45,440
Speaker 1: and review. Stucky and Raybon are back Wednesday night with

1318
01:03:45,480 --> 01:03:48,000
Speaker 1: their NFL betting guy at six Pack. Rahim and I

1319
01:03:48,040 --> 01:03:50,360
Speaker 1: are back Friday for usual run through the slate and

1320
01:03:50,520 --> 01:03:54,520
Speaker 1: our new Look Ahead segment for Raheem Palmer and Mason Crosby.

1321
01:03:54,720 --> 01:03:57,960
Speaker 1: I'm Brandon Anderson, and this has been the Action Network podcast.

1322
01:03:58,320 --> 01:03:59,160
Speaker 1: We are on two week

1323
01:03:59,240 --> 01:04:08,520
Speaker 2: Six bugstating expudent saluting SU