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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough? No running again? So smoothe

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Speaker 2: so sweet.

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Speaker 1: Splendid sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

6
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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time. How shot with that shop

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Speaker 3: with mind bog buddy, And that's why you see your

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Speaker 3: beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount

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Speaker 3: of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 4: Shut up, I'm trying the wall.

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Speaker 1: It's left to one the wide eyed, drilled fibus how

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Speaker 1: old Earth.

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Speaker 2: Pick that happens?

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Speaker 4: Helloveryone. Welcome back to Wonderful, the soccer betting podcast from

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Speaker 4: the Action Network, presented to you by Petree six five.

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Speaker 4: My name is Michael Leebop, joining me as always our

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Speaker 4: BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dbundo, and together three of us

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Speaker 4: are going to break down the upcoming midweek slate of

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Speaker 4: Premier League matches, a bunch of makeup matches for teams

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Speaker 4: that have been involved in domestic tournaments deep into the

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Speaker 4: FA Cup and the League Cup, et cetera. So we

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Speaker 4: got six good, really good matches I think to break

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Speaker 4: down in the Premier League.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk a.

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Speaker 4: Little bit about the Coppa Italia semifinals, and we'll then

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Speaker 4: give out a underdog parlay for the ages here three

28
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Speaker 4: hundred and fifty eight to one for this one, so

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Speaker 4: feel good about it too. I don't really see how

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Speaker 4: this one doesn't come through. But before we get to

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Speaker 4: all that fun, we will start with the Merseyside Derby

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Speaker 4: between Everdon and Liverpool. This is Wednesday, three pm Eastern time.

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Speaker 4: And what didn't you know? Took the week off and

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Speaker 4: ever didn't get another win because you know, the Stanley

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Speaker 4: Cup playoffs are happening. So I've been pulled in a

36
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Speaker 4: bunch of different directions. The Cricket World Cup is coming

37
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Speaker 4: to Long Island in a few weeks. I've got some

38
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Speaker 4: stuff I gotta take care of their. I wear a

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Speaker 4: lot of hats, Anthony. I wear a lot of hats, Anthony,

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Speaker 4: but one of my favorite hats is my Everden hat.

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Speaker 4: And I think that they're gonna do it here. I

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Speaker 4: think that they could. They can probably put up a

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Speaker 4: little more resistance than these odds imply. Right now, Everton

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Speaker 4: is a plus five to fifty home underdog Liverpool. Mine

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Speaker 4: is two fifteen on the road and the draws plus

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Speaker 4: three eighty. What do you say.

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Speaker 3: I was in my local Wegmans today immediately after the

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Speaker 3: Fulham match and I saw a guy in a Liverpool

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Speaker 3: kit and hat, and I thought to my My first

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Speaker 3: thought was Leeboff would hate this guy. That was the

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Speaker 3: first thing I thought.

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Speaker 4: Shop it at Wegmans. He's probably fine.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I was getting a birthday cake. But you know,

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Speaker 3: I am gonna call this unders week in the Premier League.

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Speaker 3: This is a beautiful couple of matchups. I think four

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Speaker 3: unders and this is one of the three that I

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Speaker 3: like of the six matches, so I'm going to take

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Speaker 3: some under Liverpool's attack was fine today at Fulham, but

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Speaker 3: they still created it right around one expected goal. It

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Speaker 3: was not the same dynamic, free flowing team we've seen.

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Speaker 3: Everton's attack with Betto now injured, is like drawing near

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Speaker 3: dead unless they get set pieces or twenty five yard bangers.

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Speaker 3: They have not been able to create from open play

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Speaker 3: whatsoever for the last month plus. I know they won

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Speaker 3: a game against Burnley where the goalie kicked it off

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Speaker 3: Calvert Lewin and they won today because of some insane

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Speaker 3: var decisions and some great finishes. But this attack is

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Speaker 3: really not offering much for me. I do think Everton

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Speaker 3: can hold up defensively at home and make this really

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Speaker 3: difficult for Liverpool. Clop rotated a little bit this today

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Speaker 3: against Fulham. You know, that contributes, of course to the output.

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Speaker 3: But I think it's a secret sign that Clop is

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Speaker 3: well aware that his team is kind of gassed right now.

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Speaker 3: And I think it's kind of the case for all

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Speaker 3: three teams in the Premier League title race. All three

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Speaker 3: are really exhausted coming into the stretch run, and all

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Speaker 3: three managers are complaining about it, you know, as they

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Speaker 3: always do. And I think this total is just a

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Speaker 3: touch high. It should be closer to three. So at

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Speaker 3: three and a quarter, I love the under here, yep,

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Speaker 3: all three games in the title race. I'm just gonna

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Speaker 3: throw that now, like I'm going to bet the under.

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Speaker 3: I think all three attacks are not nearly as efficient

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Speaker 3: right now as their market rating because of various injuries

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Speaker 3: and just exhaustion, and it all helps the dogs and

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Speaker 3: it all helps you know. I think the market's inflating

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Speaker 3: all of them right now because of the must win

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Speaker 3: taxa baby, yeah, and I'd rather attack it in the

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Speaker 3: totals market than in the sides. But I don't necessarily disagree. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: and I think are going to recommend in a.

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Speaker 4: Minute the must win tax I think is absolutely playing

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Speaker 4: a role here. I also like Liverpool just wobbled. I know,

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Speaker 4: Evertten just lost six. Nothing of Chelsea, you know, right

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Speaker 4: before they lost to that they beat Forest. But we're

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Speaker 4: not really too concerned about that stuff when you're dealing

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Speaker 4: with a plus five fifty underdog, Whereas when you're asking

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Speaker 4: to lay minus two fifteen on the road. The wobble

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Speaker 4: from from Liverpool against Atalanta and then in the league

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Speaker 4: to Palace like this is and then to Adelanta again

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Speaker 4: like this Isn't that That's something that I'll play into.

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Speaker 4: And like you said, I think that fatigue has to

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Speaker 4: be uh considered here for a team that's being pulled

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Speaker 4: in a bunch of different directions, a bunch of a

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Speaker 4: bunch of different races. And yeah, I think that there's

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Speaker 4: enough off the field kind of intangibles that that work

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Speaker 4: in an underdog's direction already in a in a match

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Speaker 4: like this, in a in a turtle rivalry, right And

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Speaker 4: I know you talked about Beto, but Calvert Lewin at

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Speaker 4: least you know he's going he's he's alive and in

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Speaker 4: one piece, so that's that's all a good thing for Everton.

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Speaker 4: How long it lasts, I don't know. And I wasn't

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Speaker 4: like particularly impressed with what they did today. It gets forced,

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Speaker 4: but they got to win. I think that's a huge

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Speaker 4: load off their shoulders. So this isn't this isn't going

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Speaker 4: to be a game against Liverpool where they need to

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Speaker 4: get something out of it in terms for the relegation battle,

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Speaker 4: which I think actually is a bigger deal than maybe

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Speaker 4: people realize. And yeah, a little bit less pressure on

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Speaker 4: Everton in this battle with Liverpool than there have been

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Speaker 4: in some of the recent more recent ones BJ. So

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Speaker 4: I don't know. I think that there's there's enough year.

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Speaker 4: We know that Everden's kind of process numbers have been deep,

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Speaker 4: like mid table all season, so I don't really think

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Speaker 4: that this number should be this high considering what Liverpool's

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Speaker 4: had to put up with the past few weeks.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, you know, I know Anthony's guys act

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Speaker 1: the unders here, but I actually like Everton plus one

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Speaker 1: and I think that there are some distinct advantages and

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Speaker 1: some things that Fulham did that are kind of alarming

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Speaker 1: for Liverpool, you know, in a must win situation at

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Speaker 1: a Lanta they take what one shot and point zero

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Speaker 1: four x g in the second half today against Fulham,

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Speaker 1: like Anthony mentioned, just a little over one expected goal,

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Speaker 1: two goals from outside the box another ones from a

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Speaker 1: low quality angle. And here's the thing about Liverpool, and

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Speaker 1: that's something we've known for a long time obviously where

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Speaker 1: they want to play in transition, they're not really the

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Speaker 1: best team when you sit in a defensive block and

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Speaker 1: you ask them to build up. It got pointed out

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Speaker 1: all over Twitter today, but that Liverpool's build up structure

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Speaker 1: was a complete mess, Like they weren't getting overloads in

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Speaker 1: the right positioning. It just didn't seem like they knew

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Speaker 1: what they really wanted to do. Also, his question is

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Speaker 1: is Nuonia is gonna be healthy enough to play a

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Speaker 1: fole even forty five minutes here because he keeps coming

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Speaker 1: off the bench because he has an nagging injury and

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Speaker 1: obviously Liverpool are way better with him in the lineup

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Speaker 1: than with not. The previous meeting, you know, Everton got

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Speaker 1: a red card early, so we can kind of throw

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Speaker 1: that out the window. But Everton does have distinct advantages.

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Speaker 1: I know Anthony's gonna hate me saying this, but it's

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Speaker 1: on set pieces and if you look through Liverpool they're

153
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Speaker 1: not good at defending set pieces, and overall for the

154
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Speaker 1: season they're pretty high up there and winning aerial duels,

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Speaker 1: but when you look through the individual players on Liverpool

156
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Speaker 1: were winning them, it's just vandyk and Cannota like that

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Speaker 1: is it? Like they don't really have anybody else besides

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Speaker 1: those two that can go up against the amount of

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Speaker 1: huge bodies that Everton can throw in the box.

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Speaker 2: So if Everton can play.

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Speaker 1: A lineup with maybe Nana, Brantwaite, Tarkowski, Calvert Lewin, I

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Speaker 1: mean there's four guys right there who can give them

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Speaker 1: great advantages on set pieces, so they have advantage there. Also,

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Speaker 1: Liverpool's road form has not really been that good all

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Speaker 1: season long plus four. I guess after day plus four

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Speaker 1: and a half expect a goal differential in about sixteen matches.

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Speaker 1: Everton's closer to a little over plus nine now at home.

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Speaker 1: I think this is a good match up here for Everton.

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Speaker 1: I think Fulham showed some things and some weaknesses in

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Speaker 1: Liverpool's build up structure, things that Everton can absolutely repeat.

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Speaker 1: We know they're a good mid to high block team.

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Speaker 1: So and like you said, Michael, taking the pressure of

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Speaker 1: relegation off should free Everton up a little bit. And

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Speaker 1: I think this is only gonna go one up two ways, Michael.

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Speaker 1: I think Everton's either gonna draw or win this or

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Speaker 1: they're gonna lose, like five to nothing, and I don't

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Speaker 1: think there's really gonna be much in between. So I

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Speaker 1: do like Everton plus one here projected Liverpool's read about

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Speaker 1: you know, minus point nine. You can get plus one

180
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Speaker 1: about plus one ten right now, so I like the

181
00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:23,920
Speaker 1: value on Everton plus one at plus one ten. This

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Speaker 1: is also Liverpool's third road match in less than a week,

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Speaker 1: so that's another thing that hurts them.

184
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Speaker 2: So I think there's some value in Everton. I know

185
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Speaker 2: people are gonna.

186
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Speaker 1: Hate me saying that, because people listen to this podcast.

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Speaker 1: That's literally what we've told them basically all season long.

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Speaker 1: And then Anthony comes in last week and says, no, no, no, no,

189
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Speaker 1: let's actually bet against Everton and then they get every

190
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Speaker 1: bad decision that's gone against them all season long just

191
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Speaker 1: goes for them.

192
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Speaker 2: All in one match.

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Speaker 1: So I know people are gonna hate me, hate us

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Speaker 1: saying that, but that's whatever.

195
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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a tough like one of the worst spots

196
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Speaker 3: of the year really for Liverpool. I know it's a

197
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Speaker 3: rivalry match, but three road matches in six days.

198
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Speaker 4: Yep, yeah, I tell you what. The one the one

199
00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:05,720
Speaker 4: bet you know you can take to the bank for

200
00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:06,520
Speaker 4: this match.

201
00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:08,199
Speaker 2: Brand play first goal, score.

202
00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:13,480
Speaker 4: Sure safety parlay it with Jurga clap complaining a lot

203
00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:17,120
Speaker 4: before and after, no matter how it goes, all right.

204
00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,680
Speaker 3: So that's a three town of four matches left, right,

205
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Speaker 3: So yeah, I think they're pretty good.

206
00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:24,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's I mean, I I saw Newton Town is

207
00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,360
Speaker 1: I believe minus three hundred now to be relegated after

208
00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:28,079
Speaker 1: the day's result.

209
00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:30,839
Speaker 3: So it's I just kept adding a little more every

210
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Speaker 3: week to when they were in the minus like one.

211
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, yeah, all right, let's stick to the

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Speaker 4: title race with Arsenal up next, they're taking on Chelsea.

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Speaker 4: It's a three pm kickoff on Tuesday afternoon, so like

214
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Speaker 4: a truncated schedule for them as well.

215
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Speaker 2: Yeah great, thanks Premier League. Well great.

216
00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:54,480
Speaker 1: Half years over here complaining after they planned Wednesday and Saturday,

217
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Speaker 1: so does Arsenal. And then they put Arsenal on Tuesday

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Speaker 1: and man City on Thursday.

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Speaker 2: That's fun.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the loan a lone game on Tuesday, which is something,

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Speaker 4: but well you can't play Bourne with and Wolves on

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Speaker 4: the lone game. Come on.

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Speaker 2: Whatever.

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Speaker 4: Nonetheless, the Gunners are laying minus one eighty five against

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Speaker 4: their London rivals Chelsea plus four to seventy five. The

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Speaker 4: draw is plus three seventy similar kind of build up

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Speaker 4: to this one, I think for we'll we go in.

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Speaker 4: I like I'm gonna bet against Arsenal here, I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: bet with Chelsea. I've been talking about this Chelsea team

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Speaker 4: all this season and even like kind of last year too.

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Speaker 4: That a team I want to bet when they are

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Speaker 4: big underdogs against the teams ahead of them in the table,

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Speaker 4: and a team I want to avoid at all costs

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Speaker 4: when they are laying big numbers. They haven't played since Monday.

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Speaker 4: In well, they played the FA Cup semif I should

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Speaker 4: say they haven't played since in the League since a

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Speaker 4: Monday drubbing of Evidence. Then they played City really well.

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Speaker 2: I thought in.

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Speaker 4: The FA Cup a couple of good games in a row,

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Speaker 4: but you look great. Before that, it was a two

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Speaker 4: two draw against Sheffield who dieded the crazy match with

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Speaker 4: Manchester United right before that that a too two draw

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Speaker 4: with Burnley, a win over Newcastle United, and then a

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Speaker 4: two two draw with Brentford and then a great one

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Speaker 4: one draw with with with City. So like, this team

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Speaker 4: is just absolutely playing up and down to its competition,

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Speaker 4: and I think that they'll do it again here. We

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Speaker 4: obviously know that this team is good enough and has

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Speaker 4: the talent to pull this off. So why not take

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Speaker 4: a shot with them at plus four seventy five considering

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Speaker 4: that they're these two teams are playing a ton of

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Speaker 4: soccer right now. They you know, it's probably a moot

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Speaker 4: point now, but they were pretty good against Arsenal in

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Speaker 4: their first meeting. So Anthony, anything here Chelsea and Arsenal.

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Speaker 3: Three and a half is minus one forty five to

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Speaker 3: the under. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills with

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Speaker 3: that total. This is still Arsenal, right. They played City

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Speaker 3: at Wembley City, Charles, he did total close three Saturday

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Speaker 3: neutral site. In what world is Arsenal playing higher event

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Speaker 3: matches than the City given their current attacking situation, given

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Speaker 3: their much better defensive metrics. I just disagree. So I'm

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Speaker 3: taking the under here, and so Jackson will probably have

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Speaker 3: a brace on two goals from fifteen plus yards each.

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Speaker 2: But soccer soccer hat trick. Soccer hatrick is what SOCCA looks.

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Speaker 2: Tired man, everybody looks tired man.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's where we're at now. So I thought Soccer

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Speaker 3: had the worst match of maybe his season against Wolves.

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Speaker 2: It looks and they looked done.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's really tough. I mean, you have this

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Speaker 3: hangover after the Buyern match. That's now three second halves

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Speaker 3: in a row where I thought Arsenal were quite frankly bad.

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Speaker 3: I know, they scored stoppage time, but they created almost

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Speaker 3: nothing for the majority of the match at Wolves, and

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Speaker 3: that was a Wolves team. The market saw Arsenal and

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Speaker 3: said hammer time and hour after the Wolves released their lineup,

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Speaker 3: and it didn't really play out that way, even though

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Speaker 3: Arsenal ultimately covers the clothes like they didn't create all

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Speaker 3: that much, Like Trussar looked like he scored on an

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Speaker 3: accident with the first goal. It was like, so, you know,

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Speaker 3: this open play team that had that like hot run

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Speaker 3: of you know, a month and a half where they've

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Speaker 3: looked super gelled and flowing and great and attack. We

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Speaker 3: have not seen that version of Arsenal in a while now,

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Speaker 3: and I think the Champions League, the quick turnarounds, teams

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Speaker 3: have figured out ways to build up better against them.

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Speaker 3: I'm curious to see if Chelsea will follow suit with that,

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Speaker 3: but I just really trust their defense to say, hey, like,

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Speaker 3: worst case Chelsea gets one here, and you know, I

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Speaker 3: don't really trust Arsenal to put up three. So I

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Speaker 3: think this total at three and a half is bonkers.

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Speaker 3: I have it right under three, so I'm in strong

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Speaker 3: disagreement with the market. At two nine to eight, I

293
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Speaker 3: have Arsenal favored by about a goal, so I think

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Speaker 3: the line's total the spread is about right. Like even power.

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Speaker 3: Reading Arsenal right now is really hard because it's their

296
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Speaker 3: third match in six days and Chelsea, you know, has

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Speaker 3: the tough cup match lost, but they have much more

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Speaker 3: rest otherwise coming into this, so you know, the spot

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Speaker 3: advantage again shifts to Chelsea. Can I Arsenal keep doing this?

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Speaker 3: I don't know, but I do trust their defense. I

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Speaker 3: do not trust their attack. It's in the truth all year,

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Speaker 3: and I still am happy to back another Arsenal under

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Speaker 3: at three and a half minus one forty five is

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Speaker 3: crazy to.

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Speaker 1: Yeah that, I'll be honest, I'm very nervous for this match.

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Speaker 1: This is one of the first ones I've felt very,

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Speaker 1: very nervous for in a long time.

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Speaker 2: With Arsenal.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they I mean, it just simply comes down to

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Speaker 1: they look gass right now. They've been having to essentially

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Speaker 1: play the same starting eleven or all the key players

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Speaker 1: that have been having to play Sokka, Oda, Guard, Averts,

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Speaker 1: Rice and you mentioned something that people the teams have

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Speaker 1: been better about building up against them. His teams are

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Speaker 1: being about passing through the middle of the pitch because

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Speaker 1: for a long time, you know Arsenals, you know, when

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Speaker 1: they had more rest and more available bodies, they were

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Speaker 1: relentless with their press. Teams weren't able to go through

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Speaker 1: the middle because if you lose the ball in the

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Speaker 1: middle of the pitch, like it's a really bad thing

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Speaker 1: and it's a very easy transition moment for any team.

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Speaker 1: So being brave in the middle of the pitch has

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Speaker 1: been something the teams have been doing. Wolves actually did

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Speaker 1: it pretty successfully for most of the match. They just

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Speaker 1: have no attackers available and couldn't get anything going in

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Speaker 1: the final third. So Chelsea can do that. They can

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Speaker 1: without a doubt. They against City, they were very very

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Speaker 1: good playing in a low block for kind of took

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Speaker 1: a carbon copy of what Real Madrid did against City

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Speaker 1: and did it very well. So but I agree, I'll

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Speaker 1: probably be on hundred three and a half as well.

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Speaker 1: Here projected two point nine goals, so Anthony and I

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Speaker 1: are right in line there. But yeah, I don't really

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Speaker 1: see how this plays out. I mean, game state. It's

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Speaker 1: always funny, right because like the first match, Chelsea got

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Speaker 1: a penalty and Muderick scored a flute goal from what

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Speaker 1: was supposed to be across. They go up to nothing,

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Speaker 1: and there were a couple other flute goals, one from

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Speaker 1: outside the box, and it ends up where that we

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Speaker 1: got four goals scored off about two point three expected.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I agree, I'll probably be on the under.

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Speaker 1: Just probably gonna ride these Arsenal unders all the way through.

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Speaker 1: Unless they get hot on set pieces.

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Speaker 2: We can't score absolutely could they could?

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Speaker 3: Uh remember that game? The total? When was that game?

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Speaker 2: That was November November?

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Speaker 3: The total close two and a half. So that's that's

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Speaker 3: how much the goal environment has changed.

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Speaker 2: It's the Premier League now, man.

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Speaker 3: But for Arsenal it really hasn't. I mean, Arsenal is

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Speaker 3: kind of one of the exceptions to that rule. I

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Speaker 3: mean Chelsea have played some nut games like you were

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Speaker 3: talking about leave off, like three two four three two two.

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Speaker 3: But Arsenal is the one team that has said we

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Speaker 3: are not playing this style, we are not subscribing to it.

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Speaker 3: We are going to play like this is still two

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Speaker 3: years ago Premier League and their totals are still getting bumped.

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Speaker 3: I mean I don't agree.

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Speaker 4: And that brings us to the third team in the

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Speaker 4: title race, the favorite, that is Manchester City.

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00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:11,520
Speaker 3: Who got an invincible favorite.

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Speaker 4: Both Manchester teams man so much fun so we can

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Speaker 4: magic of the Cup.

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Speaker 1: Literally, I mean, this Manchester C team can't lose right

365
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Speaker 1: like they're so beach.

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Speaker 4: I will see because this, uh, this is a Thursday

367
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Speaker 4: kickoff between them and Brighton, and it does look a

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Speaker 4: little tricky because once again where yeah, there's a little

369
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Speaker 4: bit more rest here for City compared to uh what

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Speaker 4: Arsenal and Liverpool will be dealing with, but not compared

371
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Speaker 4: to what Brighton's going to be dealing with. So it's

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Speaker 4: it's another situation where it's just you have to wonder

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Speaker 4: how much is left in a tank and against a

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Speaker 4: team like Brighton that can just turn up the dial On. You,

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Speaker 4: I know, it's not been the most the Brighton that

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Speaker 4: we've kind of come to know and love, uh these

377
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Speaker 4: past few seasons. It's not been like that this year,

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Speaker 4: but you know on their day that there'll still be

379
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Speaker 4: a dangerous opponent. They are in a spot where they

380
00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:11,159
Speaker 4: could completely They'll everybody will know, like City will know,

381
00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:13,679
Speaker 4: Brighton will know what the title race will look like

382
00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:17,560
Speaker 4: because the other teams are playing prior to the to

383
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Speaker 4: this match obviously, and I mean it's been ugly for Brighton,

384
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Speaker 4: so this is like a huge bi low opportunity against

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Speaker 4: the City team that could be gased. I mean that

386
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,320
Speaker 4: the it's it's just been weird for Brighton. I think

387
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 4: more than anything, it's been bad maybe between weird and bad.

388
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 4: But that's not going to discourage me all that much here,

389
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Speaker 4: I think because once again I in this this midweek

390
00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,919
Speaker 4: slate with these title the title teams, like it's so

391
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:47,480
Speaker 4: much more about kind of factoring like the outside noise

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Speaker 4: as much as it is just looking at numbers and

393
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Speaker 4: projections because these teams are gased, so bj can can

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Speaker 4: Brighton do it?

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Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely they can do it. And you know obviously

396
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Speaker 1: they have a bunch of rest coming to this match.

397
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,160
Speaker 1: But if you look at the three matches that DESERVEE

398
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,879
Speaker 1: and PEP have gone against each other, you can kind

399
00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 1: of throw out one of them, which was late last year.

400
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:08,880
Speaker 2: It was after City won.

401
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:10,640
Speaker 1: The title and you're probably hung over for the match,

402
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,000
Speaker 1: so you know whatever, we'll throw that one out. But

403
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Speaker 1: the first meeting last season, it has been Deservey was

404
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:18,639
Speaker 1: very fresh. I think it was like a second or

405
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:20,600
Speaker 1: third match in charge. I'd have to go back and look.

406
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 1: But they I mean they did a really really good

407
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,560
Speaker 1: job out of possession against City, which is maybe not

408
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Speaker 1: something you would think against Brighten. You'd think they'd be

409
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:33,440
Speaker 1: trying to want to control possession, do a good job

410
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,560
Speaker 1: playing through the middle. But Brighton's actually a really good

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Speaker 1: defensive team. And I think the fact that they went

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Speaker 1: so long without giving up, you know, without having a

413
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Speaker 1: clean sheet. We've talked about all the goalkeeper issues, but

414
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:46,399
Speaker 1: they have been when they've had to sit and rest defense,

415
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Speaker 1: they've actually been really really good. I mean their top

416
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 1: five and non penalty xt sheep for ninety their top

417
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 1: five and shots allowed, top five and expected threat allowed.

418
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:55,440
Speaker 1: This is a really good defense who has everybody healthy

419
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,919
Speaker 1: defensively right now, except for a stupid on which you know,

420
00:20:57,960 --> 00:20:59,479
Speaker 1: if they're going to be not have the ball form

421
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 1: a majority of this match, they want to play probably

422
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 1: play three center backs anyway. And I think the injuries

423
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,800
Speaker 1: here are getting overblown for Brighton. It's either I think

424
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 1: it's a little mixture of must win tax versus the injuries,

425
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Speaker 1: because as it looks right now, obviously Matome's out tally

426
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 1: Mark'spino forever looks like Ferguson might not play and Siso

427
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 1: might not play. But if you look at what Brighton

428
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 1: played in the first meet against City, which by the way,

429
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,160
Speaker 1: they dominated for like fifty sixty minutes of that match

430
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Speaker 1: after City went up to nothing, they played a front

431
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 1: three of Matoma, Gio Pedro and Dingra, so they could

432
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,199
Speaker 1: very easily. But they brought on the second half of

433
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Speaker 1: that match, slot In and Sufazi, and they can play

434
00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 1: a really good front three against City here.

435
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Speaker 2: And the other thing I think City.

436
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 1: Why they've really struggled with Brighton is because Desserbe takes

437
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 1: a lot of principles from Pep in terms of being

438
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 1: in possession, where Brighton is so obsessed with playing through

439
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:51,439
Speaker 1: the middle of the pitch, so is City. So nobody

440
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 1: really wants to play out wide. And you've seen that

441
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,440
Speaker 1: with Pep where he's playing Grealish a ton because he

442
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,160
Speaker 1: wants control and he doesn't really want to get exposed

443
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:01,120
Speaker 1: in those wide areas whereas he plays. Ok, yes, he's

444
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 1: a game wrecker. He can cause so many problems, but

445
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 1: as soon as he loses ball, they're very, very vulnerable

446
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:09,879
Speaker 1: out of possession and everything like that. So you know, again,

447
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:13,399
Speaker 1: great rest spot here for Brighton. City may may not

448
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 1: have Holland who knows, we'll see by the time when

449
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 1: the lineups come out. But I mean it's the same

450
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,440
Speaker 1: story with City, like they haven't been that good out

451
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 1: of possession. And it kind of was still true against Chelsea.

452
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 1: If they just had, you know, a striker who could

453
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 1: like shoot the ball when he's like wide open, that

454
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 1: would help. I guess which Brighton has those guys, So

455
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, the previous meeting this season

456
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,680
Speaker 1: against Brighton and City expected goals.

457
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 2: Is point eight to point eight.

458
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 1: Like Brighton was so good after the two goals, like

459
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,439
Speaker 1: they are really still a really good team, So I

460
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 1: know they haven't done that this season.

461
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 2: And one more thing.

462
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:51,400
Speaker 1: I'll say I've said him many times, the famous Thomas

463
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 1: Frank quote against Brighton. You either have to give them

464
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:55,679
Speaker 1: what they want or we have to play a low block.

465
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 1: Is City really good at doing either of those? Are

466
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 1: they gonna get caught in the middle many times if

467
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:03,399
Speaker 1: their press isn't that good.

468
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:04,120
Speaker 2: We'll see.

469
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 1: But I only have City at around minus one sixty

470
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 1: ish that range, So I think they're way over valued here.

471
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 1: Brighton on the rest advantage Brighton plus one and a

472
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,159
Speaker 1: half at minus one thirty five, it's the bet for

473
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 1: me here.

474
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 3: I had the under two. Still major questions about Brighton's

475
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 3: forward production. You mentioned it just hasn't been the same

476
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 3: without Matoma, without March, without Ferguson fully fit and firing

477
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 3: hasn't been great. And I think you know part of

478
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 3: the thing with Pep, right, they get the two early

479
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:36,679
Speaker 3: goals at home, they kind of dominate the first fifteen

480
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 3: ish minutes, But then I think it was an element

481
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,919
Speaker 3: of Pep saying, hey, look like he has a lot

482
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 3: of respect for Deserbe and says, we'll give you the ball.

483
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 3: We don't think you can really break us down. Brighton

484
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 3: didn't create much in that match, and they were super conservative,

485
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 3: and I think it's going to be similar from Pep.

486
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 3: I think he's going to try to get the lead

487
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 3: and then sit on it. So I think most scenarios,

488
00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:59,919
Speaker 3: unless Brighton hits them really early and City has to

489
00:23:59,920 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 3: go gangbusters early, most game scenarios play out where this

490
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,479
Speaker 3: is like a two to three goal game, not a

491
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 3: four plus goal game, wide open thriller that we, you know,

492
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 3: we maybe would have expected when Brighton plays Liverpool for example,

493
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,119
Speaker 3: and even Brighton's match against Liverpool was not very open

494
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:22,399
Speaker 3: or expansive. Brighton's match against Arsenal was not very open.

495
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 3: So like these games were we talk about Brighton and

496
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 3: how like the narrative on Brighton versus the numbers that

497
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,879
Speaker 3: BJ listed off are so vastly different. They're probably the

498
00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 3: most misunderstood team in the league last twenty matches that

499
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 3: I think the total is high again and I like

500
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 3: under three point twenty five at minus one fifteen. Just

501
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 3: put it in the app as we were recording.

502
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:46,160
Speaker 4: All right, Yeah, so that's the three title race contenders,

503
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 4: all three in action on consecutive days Arsenal Tuesday, Liverpool Wednesday,

504
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,320
Speaker 4: City on Thursday. Before we get to the rest of

505
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 4: the Premier League matches for this midweek slate. A reminder

506
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,439
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Speaker 4: and restrictions apply. It does seem like a little bit

522
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 4: of a like a letdown to go from those matches

523
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 4: to the next three, but we will charge on, and

524
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,439
Speaker 4: of course we'll wrap up with a what is a

525
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,159
Speaker 4: wonderful match to bet at the very end of the

526
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 4: show and then get to our parlay and.

527
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:56,879
Speaker 2: Our best bets.

528
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 4: But let's talk about Wolves and Bourne Mith he bj

529
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,479
Speaker 4: you're the only one with anything between the Cherries who

530
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 4: are traveling at plus one sixty, Wolves plus one sixty five,

531
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 4: the draws plus two sixty, so coin flit at the

532
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 4: moment on you.

533
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 1: I do like Bournemouth here, johnald bat minus one ten.

534
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 1: You saw with Wolves, they just when they have no

535
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:22,720
Speaker 1: attackers available, it's just it's it just.

536
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:25,360
Speaker 2: Doesn't work like it just it's sad like it's.

537
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 1: They only they had what point one four x G

538
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 1: point one seven expected threat like through the first or

539
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:33,959
Speaker 1: second phases of build up they were okay against Arsenal

540
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 1: and just nothing like it was Lamina and Gomes having

541
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 1: to make runs in there, like it just it just

542
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: doesn't work when you don't have Counya in there. And

543
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 1: I want to go back to not the Arsenal match,

544
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 1: but the match previous to that one, which is the

545
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 1: Nottingham Forest match where Wolves was at home and they

546
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 1: were trying to build out of the back quite a

547
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 1: bit and what kept up happening is they kept getting

548
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 1: pinned to one side, which is what you kind of

549
00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 1: want to do in press, right, and they kept trying

550
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,199
Speaker 1: to which to play and not n force, just kept

551
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,200
Speaker 1: picking that pass off over and over it and it

552
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,439
Speaker 1: actually led to one of the not even forced goals.

553
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 1: That is exactly how Boriemous press is designed. They are

554
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 1: designed to pin you to one side of the field

555
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 1: and force you to play a switch play to the

556
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,920
Speaker 1: other side of the pitch. Now, why Bornemus struggled during

557
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 1: the beginning of the season is you know, implementing this

558
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:23,360
Speaker 1: hybrid pressing type system relies on the instincts of your

559
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 1: midfielders and your fullbacks to know when to go try

560
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 1: to intercept those passes or press those players, and Bournemouth

561
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 1: wasn't really doing that effectively over the first half of

562
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 1: the season. Caused a ton of space, caused problems, caused

563
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 1: teams to beat them in transition over and over again.

564
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,880
Speaker 1: Well now they're humming. I know they just lost three

565
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 1: one to aston Villa, but you know they I didn't

566
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: think they were terrible today against bill I thought they

567
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 1: were fine.

568
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 2: It was a performance on the road.

569
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 1: But again, yeah, exactly, But again you know Wolves can

570
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 1: play a good defense and block making maybe Handbohm at

571
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 1: the ball here, but I mean without Kunyan, without Nato,

572
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 1: it's it's just it's just doesn't work, Like they just

573
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 1: can't create anything. So I like the Cherries minus one ten.

574
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 1: I did project this close to a Pickham. But given

575
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 1: those two guys, I mean even against like Forrest, like

576
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 1: one of the goals just basically came on coon you

577
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 1: dribbling through the entire team. Like outside of that, I

578
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 1: like Wolves wasn't really doing much. So I think Wolves

579
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:19,160
Speaker 1: has problems and build up here. I think they turned

580
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 1: the ball over a couple too many times against Bournemouth

581
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 1: gets some easy transition opportunities. So I like the Cherries

582
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 1: minus one ten. Drono Bett.

583
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 3: This is where I come in and say the total

584
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:30,120
Speaker 3: is a little high.

585
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I actually think about Wolves team total

586
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 1: under one and a half quite frankly to target that.

587
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 1: I believe it's around minus one twenty.

588
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 3: I don't have a ton of trust in this Bournemouth defense.

589
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 3: I don't really necessarily think it's all that real. Kind

590
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 3: of the numbers that we've seen. I'm a little like, eh,

591
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 3: it's probably fake. But I don't really think Wolves are

592
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 3: the team to really exploit that, like we saw Villa

593
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 3: do today and Villa Villa were able to hit that

594
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 3: key diagonal and you know, the equalizer they scored for

595
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 3: before half came on that kind of long diagonal ball.

596
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 3: But I don't think this total's quite betible. It's like

597
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 3: under three is like minus one twenty one, twenty five.

598
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 3: If it was like minus one ten, I'd better. I

599
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 3: really think this is a week for just a bunch

600
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 3: of flat kind of games, especially for these two teams

601
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 3: who are kind of at a point in the season

602
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 3: where they're not normally playing on short rest and neither

603
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 3: have a ton left to go for. You tend to

604
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 3: see defense drop off in those situations, but in the

605
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 3: midweek scenario, you know, with Wolves injuries, it's it's just

606
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 3: not a high goal environment for me.

607
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 4: All right, onto Palace and Newcastle. I'll be sitting this

608
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 4: one out, But the odds are Palace plus one eighty

609
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:47,960
Speaker 4: at home, Newcastle is a road favorite plus one forty

610
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 4: five draw plus two sixty. Anthony, you can go first year.

611
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 4: But you guys are you're on on song for this one?

612
00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean BJ put it in the app as

613
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 3: we were watching Pallace west Ham this morning and I

614
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 3: like hadn't done any pod prep yet looked at lines

615
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 3: for the midweek and I didn't even need to look

616
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 3: at my numbers to know that two and a half

617
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 3: minus five ish with that total. Note like that was insane.

618
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 3: I have the total at three to three three point

619
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 3: three that is now it's at three. So instead I'm

620
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 3: going to play BTTs and over two and a half.

621
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 3: It's you know, I you know, I kind of stole

622
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 3: it from BJ because he put in the doc.

623
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 2: Oh no, this is this is the Dubundo playbooks.

624
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 3: No, no, it is, yeah, the Square play special. If

625
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 3: you just got BTS and over two and a half,

626
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 3: I don't have the numbers in front of me. You're

627
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 3: probably winning a lot of money in the prem this year,

628
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 3: so good for you. Uh, but you know it shouldn't

629
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 3: be as easy as it is. But I mean, you

630
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 3: get the goaler at seventh minute like a Lise one. No,

631
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 3: then you get the goal alert to no sixteenth minute

632
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 3: everch is a like, oh okay, those guys are playing

633
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 3: and the on off splits are insane, not even just

634
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 3: necessarily from an X cheap perspective. But just like both

635
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 3: guys are running real good from a finishing, like they're

636
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 3: kicking the ball into the corners this year, and when

637
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 3: they're on the pitch, their creativity, the way that Glossner

638
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 3: is playing them off each other, you know, showing some

639
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 3: imaginative creativity. We kind of said, like, hey, you know,

640
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 3: we love Hodgson for like the bit, but like a

641
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 3: manager with real attacking ideas, new stuff with this talent,

642
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 3: could really do something with these two guys. And now

643
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 3: we've had two matches where both had been fit and

644
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 3: Palace looks like a vastly different team going forward. They

645
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 3: beat Liverpool, could have had two plus in that game.

646
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 3: Then they thrash west Ham. Caught the Hammers in a

647
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 3: great spot. Market was well aware of the spot. But

648
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, Newcastle's defense has been better, but

649
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 3: away from home there are still bad In transition, there's

650
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 3: still bad and wide areas they struggle the guys who

651
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 3: can dribble in space. That is what Crystal Palace is.

652
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 3: So the Eagles are are flying right now into the

653
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 3: finished year, new manager, bump whatever, and I think there's

654
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 3: gonna be goals in this one.

655
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 1: I agree, and I think the position that Crystal Palace

656
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 1: is in now where they're not going to get relegated,

657
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 1: they really don't aren't going to have a really shot

658
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 1: out in a European spot. Glosser can tinker and start

659
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 1: to work in his system and drill it to the

660
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 1: point where Crystal Palace could be a really good team

661
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 1: next season. And you know with Glossner he is not

662
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 1: for the first part of you know, his tenure with

663
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace, it was stay with the lower block, you know,

664
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 1: kind of and then kind of work into his system.

665
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 1: Now they're playing a three four two one and like

666
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 1: Anthony mentioned last week as an Elisa are playing as

667
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 1: double number tens and that's an amazing thing that a

668
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 1: manager has figured out to play your two best players

669
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 1: in the center parts of the pitch and attack in

670
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 1: the best attacking positioning.

671
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 2: So they should have.

672
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 1: No problem against this Newcastle defense because you know, Newcastle's

673
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 1: matchkins tot Ham was very interesting of what they were

674
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 1: doing out of possession when it was goalkick situations. They

675
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 1: were doing their normal four through three press. They're pressing, high, pressing, relentlessly,

676
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: going manna mantle of the pitch and then suddenly when

677
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 1: it wasn't that type of situation. It was fall back

678
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 1: into a four or five to one, which they haven't

679
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 1: been good in this season, and Tottenham still create a

680
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 1: lot of chances against them. So yeah, if you missed

681
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 1: the over two and a half at least number, like

682
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 1: Anthony said, just play over two and a half and

683
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 1: both teams to score because its more likely not. I

684
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 1: don't really see either team running this three four nil.

685
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 4: All right, and very excited to get to this one.

686
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:45,719
Speaker 4: Manchester United is a minus three thirty favorite at the

687
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 4: Theater of Dreams.

688
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 3: Again some books too.

689
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 4: How the Blades plus to have a fifty the drought

690
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 4: plus by fifty United? I mean, is it? Do we

691
00:33:57,240 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 4: need to go further than this conversation or this point?

692
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 4: United drew Championship Coventry City in.

693
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 2: A match they were completely dominating by the way three

694
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 2: three minutes.

695
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, go further than that.

696
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 3: I loved I love ten hog and liked be like, well,

697
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 3: you know I did some great stuff from that last

698
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 3: fifteen minutes. Dude, what's the what's the opposite of a

699
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 3: moral victory? Yeah?

700
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 4: Oh, we call it. You want to know what it is?

701
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 4: We have? There's a saying an islander country, New York

702
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 4: islander country.

703
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 1: We call it.

704
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 4: I feel bad win.

705
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 3: That's what it is. Yeah, I mean I have a

706
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 3: lot of friends who like United and reading through some

707
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 3: of the texts, you like the i'd rather lose, who

708
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 3: gives a ship if we win? You know, jokes about

709
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 3: Mark Goldbridge, the YouTube guy like just like you know

710
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 3: ten hog Like my buddy made a Brexit joke, like,

711
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 3: you know, it's really funny seeing the heel turn. But

712
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 3: ten hog in man, I'm a ten hog in. Keep

713
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 3: this guy around. Hope they win the final. I mean's

714
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 3: what's their motivation now? They're playing for jobs some of

715
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:12,359
Speaker 3: these guys. I guess right, ye, Sheffield relegated. They're playing

716
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:14,840
Speaker 3: for jobs in the Premier League as well. Sheffield's relegated.

717
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 3: I mean that's that's essentially it now. I mean, you know,

718
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:19,959
Speaker 3: but the thing about United, it doesn't matter who they play.

719
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,240
Speaker 3: It doesn't The defense is so bad. They could play Luton,

720
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 3: they could play Burnley, they could play Coventry City. How

721
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:30,280
Speaker 3: do we not just take Sheffield team total overs?

722
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 1: They can play Rotherham United, they could who.

723
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:35,400
Speaker 3: Was the team they played that scored a couple of

724
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 3: times on them?

725
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 2: Newport, new Yeah, Newport.

726
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:44,840
Speaker 3: What was it the four to two? Yeah, you know,

727
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter, it really doesn't. So you know I

728
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 3: played Liverpool. Oh wow, they held Liverpool to two. Oh

729
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 3: there was four x year.

730
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 1: I have a sat and it's kind of a sad

731
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 1: one United's kept one clean sheet in the Premier League.

732
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 2: Do you know in twenty twenty who was against Yeah?

733
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:04,239
Speaker 4: Of course we had money on the other team, right, yeah,

734
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 4: it was the it was the the match after the

735
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 4: the points deduction.

736
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean.

737
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 4: It's like Garnacho.

738
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 1: No, this is the second. This is the second clean

739
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 1: sheet against.

740
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:18,200
Speaker 2: Michael Oh god, that's right.

741
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 3: Keep I mean in the league this year, like five.

742
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,320
Speaker 2: Lip I look, I think it's six.

743
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:27,799
Speaker 3: Liverpool, both Everton matches, Luton, Lowton, they had a one

744
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,760
Speaker 3: nil Sheffield. They give up the goal to Sheffield.

745
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:34,359
Speaker 1: Oh they did, excuse me, a couple early in the year.

746
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:36,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, pretty funny.

747
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:39,960
Speaker 1: But yeah, no, it's uh, it's I mean, yeah, I

748
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 1: don't really know what else to say, but I'll say

749
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 1: something about Sheffield, like they're scoring lately. Yeah, so eight

750
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 1: point three expected goals in their last six matches. They

751
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 1: got Brereton, Cameron Archer, Oliver McBurnie are all healthy, so

752
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 1: like they got something.

753
00:36:58,280 --> 00:36:59,959
Speaker 2: They have something, and.

754
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, you're getting You're getting as high as

755
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:05,759
Speaker 4: nine to one. Yeah on this team, come on.

756
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 2: I like I also like both teams to score at

757
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 2: minus one fifty.

758
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,239
Speaker 3: I can't believe we got their best clean sheet of

759
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:12,320
Speaker 3: the year opening weekend against Wolves.

760
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:17,959
Speaker 1: Yeah, yes, right, are like the most hilarious, Like.

761
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, they had a clean sheet against Everton with two

762
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 3: point four XTG. You allowed west Ham one point four,

763
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:27,880
Speaker 3: Everton one point six. Liverpool of course, the famous Anfield game, Yeah,

764
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:31,399
Speaker 3: the only one they probably deserve deserved, the Fulham game

765
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:35,320
Speaker 3: and the Lowton game full of horrible and Burnley. I

766
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 3: don't remember Burnley away, but they played Burnley away at

767
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 3: some point this season. Bruno scored a game a goal

768
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 3: I don't know.

769
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, by the way, at the halftime today when United

770
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 1: was up to nothing, shots were eleven to one and

771
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:53,759
Speaker 1: they were completely dominating possession and they score obviously right

772
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 1: out close out of halftime, and then just I don't

773
00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 1: know if they were exhausted or what happened.

774
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 3: They're not capable of they.

775
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 1: Aren't and they don't have anybody healthy to defend either.

776
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 1: I mean Casamiro and center back, and the reason they

777
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 1: gave up the first goal was.

778
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 3: Eighteen shots for Coventry today, though they were able to

779
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 3: hold the team under twenty.

780
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,400
Speaker 1: No the first goal happened because Casimiro just didn't mark

781
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 1: l Sims and he just put in the back of that.

782
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:18,879
Speaker 1: It's like pretty simple defending and they just didn't do it.

783
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:21,400
Speaker 3: I didn't think Casimiro played bad most of the match actually,

784
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:23,719
Speaker 3: but obviously they give them three goals in the second half.

785
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:27,360
Speaker 3: He misses a penalty. We make jokes, it's fun, but

786
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:31,279
Speaker 3: I actually haven't bet this match yet. I'm gonna wait

787
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:33,799
Speaker 3: and see if it moves and uh, definitely worth an

788
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:35,479
Speaker 3: underdog shot though, right for sure?

789
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 4: Yeah? Absolutely, Okay, reverse puck line, Yeah, I mean, honestly,

790
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 4: they hit a win, they might might as well do it.

791
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 4: That wraps up the Premier League six matches in the

792
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 4: English top flight. Let's go to Italy real quick for

793
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 4: the Copa Talia semi finals. On one side it's Latzio

794
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:01,800
Speaker 4: and Juve. The other side is Atalanta and Orentina. Anthony

795
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 4: bj you're both on the same side in that match

796
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 4: between Fiorentina and Atlanta, so I'll flip it to you first, Anthony.

797
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:15,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, so Atlanta closed pick them on the road in

798
00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 3: the first leg. Now they're only minus one twenty five

799
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:20,880
Speaker 3: at home if you just flip home field, like it

800
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 3: should be closer to one to fifty five. Uh, you know,

801
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 3: I don't think much of Fiorentina. Of course, it's like

802
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 3: a tricky spot for Atlanta because their fixture pile up.

803
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:32,399
Speaker 3: So I think the market is kind of downgrading them

804
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 3: as a result of that.

805
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 2: Well, same thing with Fiorentina.

806
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 3: Actually Fiorentina's is worse and exactly which is Hey, Fiorentina

807
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 3: also on the quicker turnaround, and I trust Atalanta's attacking

808
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 3: depth way more than Fiorentina's even getting like blal tore

809
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 3: minutes today he scored off the bench. So I like Atlanta.

810
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 3: I don't do turn this.

811
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like them as well, and I'll go to

812
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:57,879
Speaker 1: the other match Lasio Juve. Both teams to score now

813
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,800
Speaker 1: minus one twenty five, Juve has a two goal advantage.

814
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 1: I mean, what do you think they're gonna do? Like,

815
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 1: they're just gonna sit and they're just gonna sit back

816
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 1: there and they're just gonna dare Lotzio to just take

817
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 1: a billion shots mounts of the box. I watched Lotsio

818
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:13,840
Speaker 1: in Genoa on Friday, and Genoa is a very similar

819
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 1: team to the Juventus where they just play so passively,

820
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 1: and Latsio all it was was shots, mounts at the box,

821
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 1: a couple set pieces. They got their one opportunity they

822
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 1: scored it, but other than that, it was just a

823
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:28,360
Speaker 1: whole lot of nothing happening for all ninety minutes. I

824
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 1: think it's exactly what you're gonna see, a nice Lagr

825
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 1: masterclass here. I bet, I mean we're gonna get it's

826
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 1: this is just no Neil written all over it.

827
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 2: So mull team to score. No, I just won twenty five.

828
00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:40,439
Speaker 3: What is the total? Two and a half?

829
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:40,600
Speaker 2: No?

830
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 4: Way right?

831
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 2: No, it's two two?

832
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 3: Yeah?

833
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:44,319
Speaker 2: Ah right.

834
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 4: That brings us to our underdog parlay. This is the

835
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 4: biggest we've ever given out. I would think, right, there's

836
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 4: nothing's gonna come close to this. I actually miscalculated it too,

837
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 4: three hundred eighty nine to one. It looks like I

838
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:05,520
Speaker 4: might even have that run. But let's see, Antony, you

839
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:06,839
Speaker 4: go first, we just talked about it.

840
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 3: I'll go. Sheffield United plus seven fifty. United's defense is

841
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 3: the second worst in the league second half of the season,

842
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 3: allowing only on Lowton Town is the only team allowing

843
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 3: more shots. The vibes are bad, the defense has no

844
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 3: healthy players besides slab Had Harry, and they look like

845
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 3: they've kind of lost hope in this manager. In this situation,

846
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 3: Sheffield United has a semblance of an attack as bad

847
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:41,360
Speaker 3: as they are defensively, Sheffield also has had a handful

848
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:43,799
Speaker 3: of just like a hilarious beat downs that I think

849
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 3: maybe have bludging their numbers further down than maybe they

850
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:49,440
Speaker 3: should be. But I mean United's land a goal and

851
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 3: a half, their minus three seventy five, They're just not

852
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 3: good enough defensively.

853
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:53,719
Speaker 2: To warrant that.

854
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,840
Speaker 3: So I'll think a shot on the blades beautiful.

855
00:41:57,560 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 4: Yeah. Like I said, there are some bigger numbers there

856
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 4: on Sheffield United, but for this purposes we'll stick with

857
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 4: the plus seven fifty splitting hairs. At that point, when

858
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:11,800
Speaker 4: you're getting this high off, I'm going to Everton plus

859
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 4: five point fifty taking on Liverpool and the Merseyside Derby.

860
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 4: I think a lot of me and BJ are underdog picks.

861
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 4: Are going to come down to one simple fact. The

862
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:29,360
Speaker 4: team the big favorite that will be taking on their guests.

863
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 4: They are absolutely at their wits end with the schedule,

864
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:39,879
Speaker 4: the fixture comp the fixture, the schedule construction. I guess

865
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:42,439
Speaker 4: you could say for them with the with Champions League

866
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 4: or in Liverpool's case, Europa League, FA Cups, all sorts

867
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 4: of stuff, huge high stakes matches in title races. It's

868
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 4: really bad. Everton meanwhile, got a huge win over the weekend,

869
00:42:54,160 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 4: so there's very little relegation pressure on them anymore, and

870
00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 4: they do have some advantages here and they're taking on

871
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 4: a Liverpool team that has been wobbling for the past

872
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:06,520
Speaker 4: fortnite and probably because of the congestion of fixtures. So

873
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 4: I think that getting Everdent at home at plus five

874
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 4: to fifty is absolutely worth a shot.

875
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 1: BJ Brighton plus five point fifty at home at the

876
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:20,919
Speaker 1: MX Deserbe has played Pep really tough in all three

877
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 1: meetings that they have, especially the first meeting this year.

878
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:25,400
Speaker 1: Cities scored off with two low quality chances, went up

879
00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 1: to nothing and then Brighton proceeded to dominate the rest

880
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 1: of the match, got a goal and ended up only

881
00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 1: being point eight to point eight on XG and that

882
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:36,239
Speaker 1: is kind of the story of the city team right

883
00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:39,240
Speaker 1: now is when they played really really good defensive teams,

884
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 1: and you saw it against Chelsea on Saturday. They have

885
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:44,239
Speaker 1: kind of struggled at breaking down these low blocks, and

886
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:46,840
Speaker 1: Brighton is a good team when they're playing in rest defense.

887
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 1: If you look through their numbers the season, their top

888
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 1: five and non penalty expected goals allowed, their top five

889
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 1: shots allowed, top five in expected threat allowed. They've just

890
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:57,799
Speaker 1: had some bad goalkeeping and that's kind of what let

891
00:43:57,800 --> 00:43:59,439
Speaker 1: them down and allowed them not to have very many

892
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,960
Speaker 1: clean sheets. But Brighton can put a good semblance of

893
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 1: players in their attack, even though they do have a

894
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:07,920
Speaker 1: lot of injuries. They can start Jile Pedro, Simona Dingra

895
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:09,920
Speaker 1: and to Fotting up top, and that can give City

896
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:12,400
Speaker 1: a ton of problems, especially a City team that has

897
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 1: been terrible defending in transition. Huge rest advantage here for

898
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:21,800
Speaker 1: Brighton twelve days of rest. This is City's eighth match

899
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:25,320
Speaker 1: in twenty five days. That's crazy. They're gonna be completely gassed.

900
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:26,719
Speaker 1: So Brighton plus five fifty for me.

901
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 4: There you go. At these prices three hundred and fifty

902
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 4: eight to one, you probably can find a way to

903
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 4: make it bigger, So good luck. Make sure to shop.

904
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 2: Around Islanders to win.

905
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, throw the.

906
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 4: Islanders in there. Maybe you could throw Chelsea in there,

907
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 4: but we'll get to them. Actually, let's talk about our

908
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:48,320
Speaker 4: favorite bets for the upcoming midweek slate of Premier League matches.

909
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:49,399
Speaker 4: BJ right back to.

910
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:54,800
Speaker 1: You United Sheffield United. Both teams a score minus one forty.

911
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:58,839
Speaker 1: United has no sembilance of a defense left. They had

912
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 1: to start Casameiro back today against Country City that didn't

913
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 1: go well, even when they were dominant the match for

914
00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:07,759
Speaker 1: sixty minutes. They just got completely gassed and let in

915
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:10,320
Speaker 1: three goals. And that can happen here against Sheffield United,

916
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:13,839
Speaker 1: who has been better attacking recently last six matches eight

917
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:16,319
Speaker 1: point three expect goals created. At least they have their

918
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 1: best three attackers Ben Burreton, Oliver McBurnie and Cameron Archer available.

919
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:23,080
Speaker 1: I mean United is not going to be able to

920
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:26,600
Speaker 1: control this match and Sheffield United, given the situation they're in,

921
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 1: I don't think they're just going to sit in some

922
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 1: type of passive low block and just let United have

923
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:31,879
Speaker 1: the ball. This is going to be a very end

924
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 1: to end style match. United in twenty twenty four is

925
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 1: allowing two point two expected goals for ninety minutes. They've

926
00:45:38,200 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 1: kept one clean sheet in twenty twenty four one. They've

927
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:43,520
Speaker 1: held one team under one inspected goal in twenty twenty

928
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 1: four Like, this defense is terrible. So I'm backing both

929
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 1: fading both of these defenses right now.

930
00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:51,800
Speaker 2: So I like both team to score. At minus one.

931
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 4: Forty I'm going to stick with the theme of fading

932
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 4: these title chasers with Chelsea at plus four seventy five

933
00:45:57,160 --> 00:46:00,719
Speaker 4: on the money line, I think that Arsenal is going

934
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 4: to also come into this game. They are in the

935
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 4: worst rest spot of all the teams chasing, with the

936
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:08,719
Speaker 4: quick quickest turnaround from the weekend with a Tuesday match,

937
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 4: the lone Tuesday match. And we've talked about at length

938
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:14,040
Speaker 4: with Chelsea that this is a team that punches up

939
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 4: pretty well. They punched down pretty horribly, but they already

940
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 4: had a good showing against his Arsenal team. They've had

941
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 4: a couple of good ones against Manchester City. So I

942
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:26,560
Speaker 4: trust Chelsea. I trust that they'll be able to play

943
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:28,759
Speaker 4: to this number here. Give you a real good run

944
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 4: for your money, BJA, your Arsenal real good run for

945
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 4: their money on Tuesday. So I'm gonna make this underdog

946
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 4: my favorite bet for the sixth match slate this week, Anthony,

947
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 4: you can bring us.

948
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:42,279
Speaker 3: Home Arsenal Chelsea under three and a half minus one

949
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:44,799
Speaker 3: forty five. Said it earlier on the podcast. When these

950
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:47,960
Speaker 3: two teams played in the Fall, the total was two

951
00:46:48,000 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 3: and a half. It just shows you how much the

952
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:52,279
Speaker 3: totals in the prem have gotten a little insane, and

953
00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:53,880
Speaker 3: Arsenal is one of the few teams that does not

954
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 3: really subscribe to this current version of the PREM that's

955
00:46:57,000 --> 00:47:00,320
Speaker 3: so insanely back and forth, and Chelsea's very happy playing

956
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 3: those matches. They will not get the chance to play

957
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 3: that style in this game. Arsenal's attack, I have a

958
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:09,680
Speaker 3: major questions. Socca looks really gassed and their backup attackers

959
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:14,359
Speaker 3: behind soccer Martinelli and Havard so just kind of and

960
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:16,440
Speaker 3: I think as a result, their attack struggles when they

961
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 3: don't get the said piece cheat codes and they have

962
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:21,680
Speaker 3: not had them recently, so the goals are drying up

963
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:23,920
Speaker 3: and I like the under this one.

964
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:26,919
Speaker 4: All right, that'll do it for this episode of Wonder Goal.

965
00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 4: We will be back recording Wednesday night to preview another

966
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 4: weekend ahead in the Premier League. But until then, best

967
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:34,680
Speaker 4: of luck with all your bets. Thank you to our producers.

968
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 4: Thank you to anyone who's rated, reviewed, and subscribed in

969
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 4: the last little while. Please keep those coming for Anthony

970
00:47:40,440 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 4: and BJM Miichael.

971
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:41,920
Speaker 1: Thank you for listening.

972
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:54,920
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

973
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:57,719
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

974
00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:00,840
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one hundred Gambler