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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts. If you are even remotely

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Speaker 1: a savage, you'll run these people over for a second.

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Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to the Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview.

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Speaker 2: I'm Sean Zerulo, joined today by Billy Ward to help

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Speaker 2: you break down a twelve fight card for UFC three

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Speaker 2: twelve going down in Australia on Saturday night. Prelims at

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Speaker 2: six pm, main card at ten Easter And if you'd

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Speaker 2: like to tail some of the bets that we discussed

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Speaker 2: today on this show, make sure to find the quick

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Speaker 2: slip link in the podcast the video description, or go

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Speaker 2: to Action network dot com slash bet now to find

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Speaker 2: all the quick slips for the bets we discuss in

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Speaker 2: this show. The main event Drigus Duplessi minus two ten

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Speaker 2: sean to Strickland plus one seventy. This fight is about

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Speaker 2: minus one sixty to minus one eighty to go to

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Speaker 2: a decision. The last time these two fought, believe it

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Speaker 2: was last February at USC two ninety seven. The fight

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Speaker 2: was plus two twenty to go to a decision and

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Speaker 2: the money line was a pick them closed minus one

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Speaker 2: to eight minus one ten on either side, seeing after

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Speaker 2: a split decision the line adjusts so drastically towards the

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Speaker 2: du plus side. The line addressed even more drastically towards

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Speaker 2: the go to decision prop about a thirty three percent

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Speaker 2: adjustment in applied probability in the finish market there now.

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Speaker 2: Strickland landed more strikes in the first fight, one seventy

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Speaker 2: three to one to thirty seven on total strikes on

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Speaker 2: significant strikes, one fifty seven to eighty one on head strikes.

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Speaker 2: But Strickland throwing out a lot of jabs, throwing out

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Speaker 2: a lot of teap kicks, a lot of rangefinders, not

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Speaker 2: sitting down on any of his punches, not landing many

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Speaker 2: power punches, everything do plus E, throwing with power, and

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Speaker 2: when dupless he was moving forward. He was winning the

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Speaker 2: fight a little bit tentative early in round one, sort

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Speaker 2: of battling, neutralizing one another in the center of the cage,

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Speaker 2: Strickling able to dictate with the jab. Rounds two, three,

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Speaker 2: and four dupless he started amping up the pressure, mixing

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Speaker 2: in the takedowns, landing body kicks, throwing head kicks, and

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Speaker 2: as he was mixing in the takedowns, he was creating

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Speaker 2: more openings for his strikes up top landed three or

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Speaker 2: four head kicks throughout the fight. Strickland ate them pretty well,

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Speaker 2: but could see one of them putting him out in

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Speaker 2: a rematch. And the biggest difference we have in analysis,

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Speaker 2: aside from seeing the fight play out, but the difference

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Speaker 2: we have relative to the first fight and our analysis. Duplus,

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Speaker 2: he had never been in a five round fight before

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Speaker 2: the first time they fought. It was expected that Strickland

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Speaker 2: would take over down the stretch win the fourth and

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Speaker 2: fifth rounds well. Dupless he has now won the fourth

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Speaker 2: round in consecutive fights. Defeated Strickland in the fourth round

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Speaker 2: was probably the best round he had in the fight,

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Speaker 2: shot five takedowns in that round, came out a little

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Speaker 2: bit tired for the fifth round. I think it's because

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Speaker 2: he exerted the most energy that he did throughout the

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Speaker 2: fight in that fourth round and then up to one

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Speaker 2: against ad to Sonia got the fourth round submission there

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Speaker 2: as well.

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Speaker 3: So I think.

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Speaker 2: Strickland probably is a higher probability of winning the fifth

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Speaker 2: round than do Plus he does. But I give you

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Speaker 2: Plessy a bigger chance of winning the first round than

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Speaker 2: he did in the first fight. When Strickland took that

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Speaker 2: opening frame. I think dupless He was a little bit tentative.

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Speaker 2: Now that they've seen each other, know each other's tendencies,

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Speaker 2: I think du plus be a bit more aggressive from

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Speaker 2: the outset, so the adjustment to me is justified. I

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Speaker 2: think Duplessi does win about seventy percent of the minutes

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Speaker 2: anytime these guys fight. I think Strickland can win two

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Speaker 2: rounds pretty comfortably. Finding a third not pretty comfortably, but

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Speaker 2: two competitive rounds I think he can take. Finding a

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Speaker 2: third competitive round for him to steal is drawing a

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Speaker 2: little bit thin against the guy with the big power advantage,

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Speaker 2: du pless It to be the likelier finisher. However, the

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Speaker 2: finish only market, he's lined about minus three forty. I'd

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Speaker 2: projected North at minus four hundred, so there is technically

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Speaker 2: quantifiable value there. I'm going to pass, though, I'm going

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Speaker 2: to take advantage of the adjustment on du plus He

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Speaker 2: to win inside the distance. It was about plus one

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Speaker 2: thirty for the first fight. It's plus one or it's

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Speaker 2: plus two fifteen for the rematch. Here that's as high

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Speaker 2: as I got, as low as plus one seventy five.

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Speaker 2: He's plus three d by knockout, plus seven to fifty

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Speaker 2: by submission. Those were plus two fifty and plus five hundred,

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Speaker 2: respectively for the first fight. I still think he's the

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Speaker 2: guy with more finishing upside. I thought that going into

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Speaker 2: the first fight the idea was Dracus early or Stricken late.

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Speaker 2: Going into the first matchup, I still think Dracas early

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Speaker 2: finishing upside. Like him to win inside the distance more

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Speaker 2: than the odds suggests. Not necessarily would be my read

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Speaker 2: if you just gave me a free bet on the fight,

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Speaker 2: but drakas Id plus two fifteen would take that at

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Speaker 2: plus two hundred or better, just a small bet, nothing

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Speaker 2: substantial for me.

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Speaker 4: Billy.

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Speaker 2: You're gonna wait for some live bets on either side

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Speaker 2: of this fight. Curious to hear how you're interested in

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Speaker 2: betting this because we did see du plus he win

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Speaker 2: that fourth roe in the last fight. Give me your

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Speaker 2: approach for live betting this fight based on how the

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Speaker 2: early rounds play out well.

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Speaker 5: First off, I every part of me wants to beout

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Speaker 5: Strickland at plus one eighty or so because they both

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Speaker 5: won two rounds pretty clearly, and they had a contested

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Speaker 5: third round that I thought was rightfully judged to DDP.

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Speaker 5: But like would not care, would not argue would not

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Speaker 5: fight you if you said the opposite, Like, it was

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Speaker 5: as close to a fifty to fifty round as I've

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Speaker 5: seen in a long time. And then they're about the

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Speaker 5: same age, like DDP is a little bit younger, but

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Speaker 5: it's not significant. So, like every part of my brain

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Speaker 5: is screaming at me about Sean Strickland, I just can't

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Speaker 5: do it pre fight. I've heard a lot of people

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Speaker 5: say that Strickland's style is so unique, and you could

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Speaker 5: probably say this about DDP too, but that after spiring

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Speaker 5: him a couple of times, you can figure him out

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Speaker 5: a little bit, and it's a lot harder the first time,

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Speaker 5: just because nobody marches forward that whole time, just pitter pattern,

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Speaker 5: like nobody else does that, and guys feel like once

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Speaker 5: they've seen it, especially for twenty five minutes, they tend

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Speaker 5: to do a little bit better.

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Speaker 4: Not that we have. I don't think any.

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Speaker 5: Rematches in tron Strickland resume right now that I can

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Speaker 5: think of off the top of my head, but he

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Speaker 5: fought for a long time, so could be wrong there anyway.

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Speaker 5: In terms of the live stuff, basically, I'm looking for

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Speaker 5: whoever wins the first round and how they win it,

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Speaker 5: just taking the other side. It seemed like every time

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Speaker 5: DDP wrestled in the first fight, he won that round,

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Speaker 5: but then he lost the next one, like it obviously

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Speaker 5: took a toll on him cardio wise. When he wrestled,

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Speaker 5: Strickland wasn't giving him the takedowns easily. DDP was getting them,

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Speaker 5: but he had to work pretty hard, and then you

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Speaker 5: could kind of see that pullback the next round after that.

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Speaker 5: So if DDP comes out, grapples the first round, wins it, clearly,

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Speaker 5: we'll probably get plus two to eighty plus three hundred

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Speaker 5: something like that on Strickland, and then he probably wins

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Speaker 5: that round and you can come back on DDP. It

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Speaker 5: maybe not plus money, but enough that you can arbitrage it.

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Speaker 5: And then if Strickland comes out DDP doesn't wrestle in

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Speaker 5: round one, odds are he's gonna come out and wrestle

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Speaker 5: in round two, so you take the other side. So

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Speaker 5: my goal here is to just build a portfolio of

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Speaker 5: two or possibly more bets where I make a profit

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Speaker 5: either way no matter who wins the fight. That's what

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Speaker 5: I'm shooting for. My general thesis is DDP wins rounds

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Speaker 5: where he Russells, but then he probably loses the next

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Speaker 5: one just because of that cardio drain. And he's a

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Speaker 5: guy who walks around thirty or forty pounds heavier than this,

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Speaker 5: so it's a lot of effort.

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Speaker 4: Strickland's not easy to take down.

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Speaker 5: I kind of get why that happens, and I think

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Speaker 5: we're going to see that happen again.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, big reason that cardio aspect. The breathing aspect for

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Speaker 2: DDP was such a thing going to the first fight.

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Speaker 2: Earlier in his career, he had a septim issue that

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Speaker 2: caused him to breathe like, very dramatically loud throughout the

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Speaker 2: entirety of his fights, even from the opening round. He

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Speaker 2: had that fixed prior to his fight against Robert Whittaker,

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Speaker 2: showed better cardio against Whittaker, finished him, and then showed

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Speaker 2: surprisingly good cardio in the fight against Strickland. So I

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Speaker 2: think the gas tank holds up better than people expected

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Speaker 2: it to. I think now that he has some five

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Speaker 2: round experience, probably knows how to manage it a little

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Speaker 2: bit better too.

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Speaker 3: I do like DDP this weekend.

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Speaker 2: I think he is the rightful winner, and I do

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Speaker 2: think Strickland is ultimately going to prove to be a

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Speaker 2: value trap coming off of that split loss, Billy, I

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Speaker 2: agree with you. I think the longer you fight Strickland,

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Speaker 2: or the more you see that style, the more success

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Speaker 2: opponents are going to have against him. That first round,

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Speaker 2: just going back and watching it, seeing DDP get his

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Speaker 2: eyes swelled up from that job, not really like pushing

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Speaker 2: forward as aggressively as he needed to. Rounds two, three,

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Speaker 2: and four, he started blitzing, lunging in a little bit

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Speaker 2: more in those movements, those aggressive like explosions they take

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Speaker 2: down attempts, all of them served to drive Strickland back

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Speaker 2: towards the fence, and when Strickland was moving backward, the

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Speaker 2: job wasn't nearly as effective, and he had no other

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Speaker 2: answers for DDP offensively. So I do think ddp's forward

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Speaker 2: pressure shuts down Strickland's offense for sixty five to seventy

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Speaker 2: percent of the fight, and that's ultimately what gets him

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Speaker 2: gets him to keep the title, potentially finishes the fight.

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Speaker 2: I really think those head kicks were getting close in

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Speaker 2: the first matchup, and I think he can land one

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Speaker 2: of those and finish the fight here. Any thoughts with

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Speaker 2: regard to the that goes the distance or the ends

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Speaker 2: inside the distance given the.

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Speaker 3: Price adjustment for the first fight before we move on.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I like your DDP inside the distance argument.

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Speaker 5: I was gonna say though, real quick before we move on.

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Speaker 5: DDP kind of had the same game plan against Atasignia,

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Speaker 5: where if you look back at the stats, he landed

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Speaker 5: three takedowns in the second round and the third round

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Speaker 5: was Izzy's best round, So there's definitely like a pattern

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Speaker 5: of DDP doing that. I don't think he finishes Strickland

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Speaker 5: on the ground, just because Strickland is so solid defensively

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Speaker 5: down there, which makes me think goes to dicision is

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Speaker 5: probably the sharper side if you were picking that without

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Speaker 5: attaching a fighter to it. But yeah, I don't hate

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Speaker 5: the DDP inside the distance kind of hoping we get

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Speaker 5: a better price, just because we've seen Strickland finish like

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Speaker 5: what once at middleweight and it was kind of fluky,

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Speaker 5: so it's hard to bet on that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I lost to Alex Parra that that left hook

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Speaker 2: sent him somersaulting backward. I believe he is one of

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Speaker 2: their aside from that via finish, and it's not as

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Speaker 2: though the first fight was particularly close to finishing. But

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Speaker 2: I do think Strickland was getting hit in the head

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Speaker 2: much more than he normally does. He he relies on

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Speaker 2: the shoulder roll, but he moves his head straight back

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Speaker 2: and doesn't doesn't move inside to side. He just sort

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Speaker 2: of leans back to get out of the way of strikes.

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Speaker 2: And when you're dodging head punches, I think it's a

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Speaker 2: lot easier to get out of the way than DDP

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Speaker 2: exploding in and throwing those.

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Speaker 3: Head kicks up. He was getting much closer to the target.

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Speaker 2: That was a really do you think one of those

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Speaker 2: is going to potentially land and wabble Strickland badly in

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Speaker 2: this fight.

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Speaker 3: Let's move on to the.

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Speaker 2: CODE main event women's strawweight title bat between Wiley Jang

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Speaker 2: currently about plus one oh two and Tatsianosuirez at minus

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Speaker 2: one twenty two. Jang opened about minus one ninety five

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Speaker 2: here current champion Suarez opened around plus one fifty forty

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Speaker 2: percent implied for money. Line has moved towards about minus

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Speaker 2: one twenty minus one twenty five, more than ten percent

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Speaker 2: fifteen percent in implied probability relative to where it opened

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Speaker 2: now a few years ago. Billy, I'm really curious as

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Speaker 2: to who you would have bet in this fight. I'm

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Speaker 2: assuming based on the version of Tatiana Suarez that we've

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Speaker 2: seen come back in twenty twenty three, who then had

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Speaker 2: to take more time off due to more injuries. You

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Speaker 2: didn't see the Tatiana Suarez that peak Tatiana Suarez that

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Speaker 2: we saw earlier in her career, when it seems like

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Speaker 2: she was a surefire UFC champion. Her wrestling seems like

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Speaker 2: it's a bit different relative to everybody else in these

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Speaker 2: women's divisions. Seeing collegiate wrestling get pushed forward for a women,

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Speaker 2: I think we're gonna see an era of potentially dominant

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Speaker 2: American wrestlers in these female divisions win belts. Maybe Tatiana

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Speaker 2: Suarez is a sliding door moment for the start of

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Speaker 2: that era. Not as though she was able to benefit

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Speaker 2: from these new scholarships and new implementation of women's wrestling

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Speaker 2: at the collegiate level. But I do think Tatiana Suarez

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Speaker 2: can control this fight via the grappling. I think it's

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Speaker 2: a fairly binary because if she doesn't, I think Jang

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Speaker 2: can catch her on the feet. You're going with the

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Speaker 2: Jang side. I'm on the Suarez side, curious where you

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Speaker 2: bet Jang, And then I also want to know your

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Speaker 2: thoughts regarding the total, because this is about minus one

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Speaker 2: fifty to end inside the distance. Then I also want

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Speaker 2: to know if this fight were five years ago, if

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Speaker 2: you would have bet Suarez.

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Speaker 4: All right, So a lot of unpack there.

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Speaker 5: First thing, this kind of I forget what the fight

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Speaker 5: was two weeks ago, but we saw the price go

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Speaker 5: way up and then dip back down and then up again.

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Speaker 4: And I know we were on the opposite side of that.

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Speaker 3: One Matt Alexander fight.

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Speaker 5: Yes, yeah, exactly, And it almost reminds me of that

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Speaker 5: because why Lee got as high as like plus one

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Speaker 5: fifteen at some places before coming back down. I would

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Speaker 5: only bet either woman in this fight as it stands

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Speaker 5: now at plus money. I got plus one oh five

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Speaker 5: at Jang even I guess even money, I'd.

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Speaker 4: Still be with her.

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Speaker 5: The problem that I saw was when Suarez came back,

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Speaker 5: she relied super heavily on a guillotine and the first

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Speaker 5: one was horrible, like it was a one arm guillotine

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Speaker 5: that and drive tap two, where like I would yell

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Speaker 5: at my seven year old for tapping to that. And

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Speaker 5: I couldn't believe someone did it in a high level

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Speaker 5: UFC fight. Second one was a little bit better.

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Speaker 4: I still do.

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Speaker 5: I hate falling to your back for a guillotine in

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Speaker 5: an MMA fight. It's one thing in jiu jitsu or

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Speaker 5: whatever else, but Jang is not gonna tap to you

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Speaker 5: jumping guillotine like she's gonna defend that appropriately. I see

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Speaker 5: Jang with a very clear striking edge, Suarez with a

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Speaker 5: very clear wrestling edge, But it's gonna be close once

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Speaker 5: it actually gets to the mat, like we've seen Jang

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Speaker 5: get taken down by Yan john Nan and then dominate

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Speaker 5: the grappling once it gets there.

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Speaker 4: That's what I think is really going to decide it.

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Speaker 5: On top of you know, Suarez missed two fights last

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Speaker 5: year with a knee injury, although the one in December

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Speaker 5: seems a little bit questionable that she was actually hurt

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Speaker 5: if they then put her in this one, maybe they

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Speaker 5: were just saying that because they needed a title fight.

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Speaker 5: I don't know either way, Like had a significant knee

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Speaker 5: injury at some point in twenty twenty four, and I

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Speaker 5: don't think.

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Speaker 4: She's ever been five rounds.

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Speaker 5: So we talk about it a lot with grapplers or wrestlers,

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Speaker 5: I should say, not grapplers in general. That doing that

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Speaker 5: over an extended period is a lot harder than striking

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Speaker 5: over an extended period. So I think if it does

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Speaker 5: go late, it probably favors Wiley.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I'm with you. I fit honestly, not even

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Speaker 4: five years ago.

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Speaker 5: Just if I was confident she was healthy, really, at

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Speaker 5: any point, I'd probably be on the Suarez side. You

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Speaker 5: just can't ever really say that. And even if she's

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Speaker 5: fully healthy, now, how long has she been fully healthy?

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Speaker 5: What's the cardio going to be like in her first

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Speaker 5: five round fight? Is she going to be able to

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Speaker 5: push the pace the whole way? So that's how I

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Speaker 5: see it For Wiley, I'm not super confident in it.

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Speaker 5: I actually think this is the far more intriguing of

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Speaker 5: the two title fights, because almost no outcome here would

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Speaker 5: surprise me. Like if I woke up Sunday morning and

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Speaker 5: you told me what happened, I would not be shocked

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Speaker 5: in any method time or winner. But yeah, if I'm

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Speaker 5: getting plus money, I'm one of the more dominant champions

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Speaker 5: in recent memory against a similarly aged fighter who's had

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Speaker 5: injuries in layoffs, going to take it?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think where we disagree is how competitive the

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Speaker 2: grappling is going to be once it actually gets the mat.

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Speaker 2: We both agree Suarez the better wrestler likelier to get

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Speaker 2: it to the matt. Wiley's never had good takedown defense either,

320
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Speaker 2: But to me, Wiley also gets stuck on her back

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Speaker 2: for extended stretches. The fight with the fights with Rose Namahunas,

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Speaker 2: I think those were a great example of two fighters

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Speaker 2: who were much better offensively grappling than they are defensively,

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Speaker 2: because anytime either of them ended up on top, the

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Speaker 2: other was not able to get out from bottom on

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Speaker 2: the other. So to me, Wiley has always been a

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Speaker 2: much better offensive grappler than she is defensively. Her out

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Speaker 2: grappling Yan Chanaan after being taken down doesn't really do

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Speaker 2: anything for me. Jan is a boxer. This is a

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Speaker 2: completely different level going up against Tatiana Suarez.

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Speaker 3: My concern is what you.

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Speaker 2: Mentioned, the five round factor, the fact that Tatiana has

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Speaker 2: never been to the Championship rowns. But again Jang, when

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Speaker 2: she gets grappled, I do think she tends to tire

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Speaker 2: out much more quickly than when she's striking, So I

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Speaker 2: had significant pausibility about betting Suarez with that five round

337
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Speaker 2: question mark, with the championship round question mark, I think

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Speaker 2: if Suarez is winning and covering her money line, she

339
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Speaker 2: likely finishes this thing before it even gets to the

340
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Speaker 2: championship rounds. As a result, the under three and a

341
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Speaker 2: half rounds is pretty interesting because if she's not having

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Speaker 2: success wrestling, she's probably gonna get knocked out on the

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Speaker 2: feet or at least hurt very drastically, and then Suarez

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Speaker 2: either inside the distance or by submission at plus two sixty,

345
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Speaker 2: she's going to chain those submission attempts together. She's going

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Speaker 2: to try for guillotine as Billy mentioned, but she's going

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Speaker 2: to look to finish this fight inside the distance en

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Speaker 2: via submission within the first few rounds. Maybe a better

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Speaker 2: bet at plus money than taking her money line. Billy,

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Speaker 2: did you have any thoughts regarding the total before we

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Speaker 2: moved on from this one?

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Speaker 5: Not so much the total because I'm on Miiley, But

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Speaker 5: if I had the read that I thought Suarez was

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Speaker 5: going to do well, then the under. It's kind of

355
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Speaker 5: about like, if you're getting under three and a half

356
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Speaker 5: at a better price than suarez money line, that feels

357
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Speaker 5: pretty obvious. Just it gives you more out and covers

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Speaker 5: the Likelyessuarez. Really like Suarez sub though, like I think

359
00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:05,240
Speaker 5: if she wins, that kind of likely how it's going

360
00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:07,640
Speaker 5: to be. I just don't see her winning an extended fight,

361
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Speaker 5: so I might even you know, had a little sprinkle

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Speaker 5: on Suarez sub just to cover my my wiley money

363
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:15,560
Speaker 5: line here. But yeah, the three and a half, if

364
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Speaker 5: you're on the Suarez side, I think is the better

365
00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:20,919
Speaker 5: pick with the current lines. If you got Suarez at

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Speaker 5: a better price, shout out to you. But that's not

367
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Speaker 5: there anymore. So I really like your point on the

368
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Speaker 5: under three and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, plus one oh two plus one five even on

370
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Speaker 2: the under three and a half you can get currently.

371
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Speaker 2: I agree with him. I think this is the more

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Speaker 2: intriguing fight. This is the most interesting fight on the

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Speaker 2: card for me. I wish it got its own build up, frankly,

374
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Speaker 2: and I wish it was a main event. Soling a

375
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Speaker 2: main event, I doubt they could have sold too many

376
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Speaker 2: pay per views, you know, with these fighters and the

377
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Speaker 2: build up that they gave it. But this is an

378
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Speaker 2: extremely interesting fight, and like I said, a potential sliding

379
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Speaker 2: doors moment for Woman's MMA with the future of American

380
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Speaker 2: wrestling potentially on the horizon. The pipeline of female wrestlers

381
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Speaker 2: who are going to get into MMA, I think is

382
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Speaker 2: going to grow exponentially in the next four or five years.

383
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Speaker 3: Let's move on to our.

384
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Speaker 4: Neahvorite at my house.

385
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Speaker 5: I was said big news at my house when we

386
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Speaker 5: got D one women's wrestling with my seven year old daughter,

387
00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:16,680
Speaker 5: who loves to wrestle, So that was big. I'm hoping

388
00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,000
Speaker 5: you can follow that Suarez path. Not that I ever

389
00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:20,399
Speaker 5: wanted to do MMA, but let's just go.

390
00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,720
Speaker 2: Maybe we'll be talking about one of our collegiate wrestling

391
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Speaker 2: fights on this podcast one day. Move on our favorite

392
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Speaker 2: underdogs for this weekend. There's a number of underdogs in

393
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Speaker 2: the main card. I like, not too many on the prelims.

394
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Speaker 2: I'm interested in a couple I'm going to talk about here.

395
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,280
Speaker 2: Justin Tafa plus one thirty five on the money line

396
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:41,960
Speaker 2: by ko at plus one eighty. He's going against Talian

397
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,480
Speaker 2: t Shera, who's seven inches color has a nine inch

398
00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:48,000
Speaker 2: reach advantage. He's also six years younger. But Tashera is

399
00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:51,920
Speaker 2: a grappler. Tafa the better striker. Tafa much more durable,

400
00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:54,280
Speaker 2: and I think he is better cardio if.

401
00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 3: This fight extends too. He's five and five of the UFC.

402
00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,040
Speaker 2: Those wins have an age particularly as well, but he

403
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:03,600
Speaker 2: has beaten UFC level competition. Tashera has mostly fought cans,

404
00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:06,640
Speaker 2: has not been an extended fights, and I think most

405
00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:11,199
Speaker 2: importantly here, he pulled out of a December fight against

406
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:15,159
Speaker 2: Lucas Breshki on an Alexander Brenttojia undercard, so on a

407
00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,800
Speaker 2: Brazilian undercard with an injury, and the UFC said, okay, great,

408
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,480
Speaker 2: you can now go to Australia and fight an Aussie

409
00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,959
Speaker 2: who hits really freaking hard, a much tougher fight in

410
00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,720
Speaker 2: my opinion than the Breshki fight. Breshki is just a

411
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:31,720
Speaker 2: cardio kickboxer. I think Tashera been able to take him down,

412
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,360
Speaker 2: would have been able to survive in the striking even

413
00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:36,640
Speaker 2: if he got hit. Here, I don't think he survives

414
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,880
Speaker 2: in the striking. He gets hit, he can win via grappling,

415
00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:42,880
Speaker 2: he can win via submission and I think rather quickly,

416
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 2: but he can get caught at range as well, and

417
00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:49,560
Speaker 2: Tafa capable of putting anybody down. Stafa by KO plus

418
00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,040
Speaker 2: one to eighty probably a better bet than the money

419
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 2: line at plus one thirty five, but I don't think

420
00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:56,080
Speaker 2: he is bad Cardio, and I won't be shocked if

421
00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:58,920
Speaker 2: he wins the decision between these two, considering he has

422
00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,080
Speaker 2: fifteen minute AGI experience, and then Jimmy Crue at plus

423
00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 2: one thirty six very similar price, but the inside the

424
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 2: distance recruit at plus three point eighty going against Rudolpho

425
00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:13,639
Speaker 2: Boloto one inch shorter, three inch reach of discrepancy, but

426
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,400
Speaker 2: he should have the grappling upside in this fight. I'm

427
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,880
Speaker 2: just worried about his mental state. He took some time

428
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:21,639
Speaker 2: off to deal with mental health issues. He clearly seemed

429
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 2: broken into the cage mentally. Last time we saw him

430
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 2: against a Lonzo Metafield. He seemed broken after other losses too.

431
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,359
Speaker 2: It's taking some extra time off. Don't love betting a

432
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,320
Speaker 2: guy coming back who seems kind of waffling back and

433
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,280
Speaker 2: forth on whether he wants to continue fighting in MMA.

434
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:39,760
Speaker 2: But this is a huge step down in competition relative

435
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 2: to his recent opponents, and not only can.

436
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 3: He grapple Blotto, I don't think Bilotto has a good

437
00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:45,040
Speaker 3: chin either.

438
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 2: I could see them just swinging and one of them

439
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,760
Speaker 2: getting caught, and it basically being a fifty to fifty brawl,

440
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 2: so Blotto again plus one thirty six or sorry, cru

441
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 2: plus one thirty six on the money line inside the

442
00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,320
Speaker 2: distance at plus three eighty, Billy, You've got a couple

443
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:01,920
Speaker 2: of underdogs you like as well. But before you get there,

444
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 2: any thoughts on Tafa and Jimmy Krup.

445
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, crewt inside the distance at plus three eighty in

446
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 5: a fight that's like what minus.

447
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 4: Two fifty then inside the distance is insane.

448
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 5: Like I haven't done the math exactly, but that's not

449
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:15,400
Speaker 5: how that should work.

450
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 4: So yeah, definitely gonna tell that one.

451
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:19,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's awful.

452
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:22,240
Speaker 5: Like I don't understand, but regardless, Yeah, take that jump

453
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 5: on that one.

454
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 4: I'm with you in that.

455
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:27,119
Speaker 5: The outside factors have me not wanting to bet on

456
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,159
Speaker 5: Crew straight up, but when you can get inside the

457
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 5: distance of that. I did the full fight preview. I

458
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 5: don't know if it's up yet for tafovers tech Shara.

459
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,959
Speaker 5: What I did was Tafa by first round KO, specifically

460
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:41,119
Speaker 5: at plus three eighty and then also tech Shire's money line.

461
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 5: Tafa has never wont to fight that's gone out of

462
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 5: the first round. He's never want to fight by anything

463
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 5: other than knockout. He's fighting like a tall, gangly dude

464
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:49,960
Speaker 5: who he should be able to find his chin early.

465
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 5: The one thing I think that helps Tex share here

466
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 5: is it's the full UFC pay per view cage, and

467
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 5: for a big guy, we see a lot of big,

468
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:58,440
Speaker 5: tall guys who don't use it well. He actually used

469
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 5: it really well on the feet. He keeps that so

470
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:02,880
Speaker 5: if Tafa throws a few bombs early in the fight,

471
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 5: they don't land. I think tech Shera takes over after that.

472
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 5: So that's my thought. If we get a top A

473
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 5: first round knockout, I make money. If tech Shara wins

474
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:13,919
Speaker 5: at any point, I make money. So yeah, that's how

475
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:17,119
Speaker 5: I'm doing that one. My favorite bet still, even though

476
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 5: the line has came down since Monday, is Colby Slickness

477
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 5: Thickness at I think plus two ninety five is the

478
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:23,400
Speaker 5: best line.

479
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:24,639
Speaker 4: Now. I got plus three fifty.

480
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:28,920
Speaker 5: He's fighting Alexandre to Alpuria, and instead of being plus

481
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,960
Speaker 5: three fifty, if Topuria's last name was Smith, he'd be

482
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 5: like maybe plus one fifty just because it came in

483
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,160
Speaker 5: on short notice. If you look at these guys, resumes

484
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 5: Thickness is by far the better prospect he's undefeated, He's

485
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,359
Speaker 5: fought like four guys with winning records. He's got a

486
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 5: regional title in Australia, which has a tough regional scene.

487
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 5: Topuria has mostly fought cans. Only one of his opponents

488
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 5: has a winning record and he's been knocked out. Doesn't

489
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 5: seem to have great cardio, Like if you watch some

490
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 5: of his fights, he's very aggressive early but doesn't really

491
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,879
Speaker 5: have a plan B. I don't think Thickness is a

492
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 5: guy that you can just run over right away, and

493
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,679
Speaker 5: it's pure like nepotism. The market caught onto that and

494
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 5: pushed it down a little bit. And it's also kind

495
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 5: of a like proxy rematch between Volkanovski and Toperia because

496
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 5: Volkanovski trains with and will be cornering Thickness in Australia,

497
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:19,200
Speaker 5: got the hometown behind him. I'd be even more confident

498
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,439
Speaker 5: if we short notice for Thickness. He's stepping in for

499
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 5: Cody Hadden. My logic though, is if you are a

500
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:28,120
Speaker 5: seven and zero Australian prospect and they're coming to Sydney,

501
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 5: you just get ready like you have a fight anyway,

502
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 5: because the odds are getting called up for that are

503
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 5: fairly high, so I'm hoping he's in good shape. Those

504
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 5: guys always seem to be. Can't believe the line we're

505
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 5: getting on that just because of the last name and

506
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 5: then the other one. Tom Nolan was plus one twenty five.

507
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,639
Speaker 5: I think you can still find that some places. Maybe

508
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,639
Speaker 5: on Friday. I'd take him at any plus money against

509
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 5: Slava Clause. I think at worst, this is just a

510
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 5: brawl between two guys, and we've seen Slava Claus is

511
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,920
Speaker 5: chad and start to deteriorate a little bit. Nolan a

512
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 5: little bit more skilled, bit less aggressive. Best case scenario,

513
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 5: he uses those skills and his height and stays at

514
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 5: range and picks them apart. Worst case, we're flipping a

515
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 5: coin on a brawl where one guy's older and has

516
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:11,920
Speaker 5: been hurt a little bit recently.

517
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 4: So I like Tom Nolan, wouldn't take him as a favorite.

518
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 5: See what the best line you can get as you're

519
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:21,239
Speaker 5: hearing this is yeahs until Porio, though, I really want

520
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 5: to hear how your viewing that one, So.

521
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:24,639
Speaker 3: No bet for me.

522
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 2: I'm really excited for Iliotavoria and Alexander Volkanowski to be

523
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 2: in opposing corners for that fight. Kind of like a

524
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 2: pseudo rematch via their trainees training partners. I guess Iliot

525
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 2: took some time off to help his brother prep for

526
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 2: this fight. I don't really have much read on his

527
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 2: brother's skill set. I mean, there's not much recent tape

528
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,160
Speaker 2: on his fights. He's clearly hasn't fought very high level

529
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,440
Speaker 2: competition either. The fact that he trains with his brother,

530
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,159
Speaker 2: I think is probably a decent sign. But you know,

531
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,880
Speaker 2: a lot of Ilia's game is predicated on his explosiventh

532
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 2: and athleticism, so I don't know how much of that

533
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:07,199
Speaker 2: is in his brother. Like Iliad just relative to his size,

534
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 2: swings hammers, he has just like this naturally god given

535
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 2: power in his hands. And not only that, but he

536
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 2: also has like the the fast twitch muscle and the

537
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,479
Speaker 2: speed to dart in and out of the pocket and

538
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:24,359
Speaker 2: to move around the cage. So it's really tough to tell,

539
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 2: you know, where his brother is athleticism and explosiveness and

540
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 2: power is relative to the vandaweight champion of the world,

541
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 2: maybe the number one pound for pound.

542
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 3: Fighter in the world.

543
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,920
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think, you know, given all those factors,

544
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 2: given the unknown, given the unlikelihood that both him and

545
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 2: his brother are you know top one percent athletes. I

546
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 2: think thickness is probably the side you have to think

547
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 2: when when you're betting too unknowns and we'll get to

548
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 2: or or I should say we'll get to it a

549
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 2: little bit more with our best bet, because I actually

550
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 2: think there's betting into unknowns there that are directionally correct

551
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 2: for taking a plus money I think the unknowns here

552
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 2: are also directionally correct for betting into a plus money shot.

553
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 2: I think to pour his upside is already baked into

554
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 2: the line, and I think thickness is and I think,

555
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 2: like the name value is baked into the line. I

556
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 2: think everything else you said Billy, if you gave him

557
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 2: the name Smith, if you just looked at their resumes,

558
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:24,160
Speaker 2: what is the line? And for that reason, I think

559
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 2: it's probably incorrect. But also this was plus three fifty

560
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 2: earlier in the week you got a match better number.

561
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,439
Speaker 2: It seems to have settled in now that it's below

562
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 2: that three to one threshold. I probably wouldn't jump in

563
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 2: on to this point pre fight because I'm worried about

564
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:42,120
Speaker 2: thickness just getting finished quick by what could be an

565
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 2: explosive athlete. But if thickness is still there after round one.

566
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 2: I'm probably live betting him against the guy who his

567
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 2: brother showed, you know in his UFC debut he gassed

568
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 2: out a little bit and around three granted that was

569
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 2: on short notice against Yusuf Solal Teporia is the one

570
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 2: who got rescheduled. Here, Thickness taking the on short notice

571
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,120
Speaker 2: in place that Cody hadn't. But I know a lot

572
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 2: of people were really excited about Cody Hadden's chances against

573
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:11,119
Speaker 2: the Porea. I'm just wondering if some of that love

574
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 2: for Hadden has maybe bled over to wanting to bet

575
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 2: Thickness against the Warriors. So it's a bass for me,

576
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,360
Speaker 2: But I just I wanted to analyze, like when you're

577
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 2: betting into unknowns, and betting into unknowns could be great

578
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 2: because that's where value probably lies. You just want to

579
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,160
Speaker 2: be directionally correct in terms of the unknown that you're

580
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 2: betting into. And I think it's it's almost like certain

581
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 2: that this line, if anything, is likely overinflated towards the favorite.

582
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 2: Before we get to our top props. Just want to

583
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 2: make sure that you know out there that they just

584
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,119
Speaker 2: set for Super Bowl fifty nine and the many prop

585
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:44,880
Speaker 2: bets to come. That means now is the perfect time

586
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:48,000
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587
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,960
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588
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 2: like Super Bowl prop Master Sean Kerter and Chris Raybon.

589
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 2: I saw Kerner firing more props into the action I

590
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 2: were gap this morning. You know all the tools you

591
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,720
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592
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594
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595
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:15,160
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596
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597
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598
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,639
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599
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 2: Throw and hopefully we can win you money to cover

600
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:28,879
Speaker 2: the rest of that subscription with our top props of

601
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 2: the night and some plus money plays. We are in

602
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 2: alignment on one prop in particular, that's Cody Steel by

603
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 2: submission at plus three to eighty. Billy, I want to

604
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 2: let you talk about this fight a little bit more

605
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 2: in depth because you also like steal on the money

606
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 2: line as well. But we just see a grappling advantage

607
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 2: for steel here, a competition black belt making his UFC debut.

608
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 2: I think we both view this guy's a pretty high

609
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 2: level prospect and we like him to get a finished

610
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 2: in his opening fight.

611
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, the market is just screwed up here because he

612
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 5: didn't get any takedowns on Contender series. As you pointed out,

613
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 5: high level competition black belt. He won combat jiu Jitsu

614
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 5: Worlds before transitioning to MM, which for those that don't know,

615
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 5: is like, it's a jiu jitsu match, but when it's

616
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 5: on the ground, we can slap each other and it

617
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 5: looks kind of silly, but it's actually like a really

618
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 5: good translation to MMA because you're not, you know, inverting

619
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 5: yourself rolling for leglocks when the guy's dropping hammer slaps

620
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 5: on you. So like, I actually really like that as

621
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 5: a progression step for him. He's grappled every high level

622
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 5: black belt that you've heard of, if you follow that

623
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 5: at all, usually not beat the best of the best guys,

624
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 5: but done really well.

625
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 4: He didn't get any takedowns on the Contender series.

626
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 5: He tried a couple that didn't work, still won by knockout,

627
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 5: which is a good sign. But a concerning sign against

628
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 5: a powerful puncher in wrong Zou. What people don't realize

629
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 5: on the Contender Series he fought a division ie wrestler,

630
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 5: and now he's fighting a Chinese fighter who got taken

631
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 5: down like six times on two Road to the UFC fights,

632
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 5: So it's just it's a super clear advantage this time.

633
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:57,040
Speaker 5: This feels like one of those just grab it this

634
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 5: fight because it's not going to remain there moving forward.

635
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 5: People just don't realize that that's what he does. He's

636
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 5: really good at it, and we just got a twisted

637
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 5: view of that because of the matchup he had on

638
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 5: the Condender Series, which he still did really well, and

639
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 5: but he won by knockout instead of a submission, which

640
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 5: gave people the wrong idea.

641
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, four career losses by submission for Wrong Zhou as

642
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 2: well regional losses Chinese MMA losses via submission, probably not

643
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 2: a good sign against the guy who is a high

644
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 2: level competition black belt. You previously gave out top of

645
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 2: round one KO at plus three eighty. I may switch

646
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 2: to that instead of the top of money line, or

647
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 2: I may just add some of that, you know, in

648
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 2: round robin tickets. And I'm still figuring out how to

649
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 2: bet the crew and the top of fights. I think

650
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 2: they're both the value sides. I just I'm not in

651
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 2: love with betting either. Again, we're going to get to

652
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 2: an underdog in our best backs section that we both

653
00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 2: really like. The other two contrarian plus money props that

654
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 2: stood out to me as potential bets. The Tumporia Thickness

655
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 2: fight goes to decision at plus two to forty, which

656
00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 2: certainly lends itself to the thickness side of the money line,

657
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 2: and then the Slava Nolan fight goes to decision at

658
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 2: plus two fifty. You know that both fights, I should say,

659
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 2: are over one and a half as opposed to over

660
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,479
Speaker 2: two and a half. The Slava fight is minus one

661
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 2: twenty over and a half over one and a half.

662
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 2: The Tetoria fight is minus one forty. However, I think

663
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 2: if those fights get over one and a half, they

664
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 2: are likelier to go to a decision, and I would

665
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 2: probably bet the plus money as opposed to laying juice

666
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 2: on the over one and a half. So again, nothing

667
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 2: I'm particularly in love with. They're both contrarian plays, both

668
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 2: fights are expected to envy a finish.

669
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 3: I just think.

670
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 2: Relative to the divisions these are in which you know

671
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 2: the finish rates for these divisions are closer to fifty

672
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 2: five percent, and the market is telling you it's closer

673
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 2: to sixty five percent, So there's there's definitely a slight

674
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 2: edge on both fights to go to a decision. If

675
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 2: you hit one of them, you obviously turn a profit.

676
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 2: We'll see if I end up betting one, both or neither.

677
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 2: Just wanted to point those out as potential value props.

678
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 2: So this weekend just an eleven fight card, just the

679
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 2: twelve fight card, so not a ton necessarily on the board, Billy,

680
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 2: anymore props before we move on our best bets?

681
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 5: Uh No, I really like the two you gave out

682
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 5: because they both I think corelate pretty heavily with the

683
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 5: underdogs in those fights winning which I'm betting, so like

684
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 5: I especially.

685
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 4: In Nolan Slava given the line movement on Nolan.

686
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 5: If I hadn't bet Nolan earlier in the week, I

687
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 5: think I would probably tell you on that. But I

688
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 5: just think there's enough correlation and I got a decent

689
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 5: price on Nolan earlier. So but yeah, I hope you

690
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 5: hit both of those because it probably means I hit

691
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 5: both of the underdogs that I like.

692
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Nolan Borschev fight could be a potential banger.

693
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 2: Borchev is really technical, Nolan is just bigger and hits harder.

694
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 2: I could see like a very slow paced technical fight

695
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 2: playing out and then Nolan cracks Borschev with a huge shot,

696
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 2: or I could see Slava landing like a huge body

697
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 2: shot that puts Nolan down. So the pace of that

698
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 2: fight scares me a little bit, just because, like I

699
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 2: think they could go very far fast. I think it

700
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 2: could go very slow and then somebody could just lay

701
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 2: in a huge punch and then the fight. So that

702
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:08,959
Speaker 2: gtd bothers me a little bit. The Tiporia fight, like

703
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 2: I said, betting into the unknowns a little bit. There

704
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,680
Speaker 2: was another fight too that I'd say, Oh, the heavyweight fight.

705
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 2: I think the heavyweight fight over one and a half

706
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:21,239
Speaker 2: at plus money as well. Tafa to Shira, I think

707
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 2: that could be a sneaky over too. Tafa is super

708
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:28,240
Speaker 2: durable to share a we haven't seen finished. I do

709
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 2: think he's got a potentially compromise chin. I think the

710
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 2: likeliest way that finishes is taf a ko or to

711
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 2: share a submission.

712
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 3: But if those two strike it out.

713
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 2: I think that could get over the seven and a

714
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,959
Speaker 2: half minute mark at plus money, not something I'm probably betting,

715
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 2: but do want to dissuade people potentially from betting the

716
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 2: under there. I think that could be a trap at Juice.

717
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 5: Well specifically, I think even more so fits your thing

718
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 5: of if it goes over one and a half, it's

719
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 5: going a decision though, because especially with lower level heavy,

720
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 5: if they don't have the cardio to finish until there

721
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 5: later in fights, we know submission are hardier later in

722
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 5: fights when they're slippery.

723
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 4: The power from both guys is going to be down.

724
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 5: If we get halfway through the first round, there's gonna

725
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 5: be a lot of like cage pushing and hugging along

726
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 5: the wall. So I have zero interest in betting over

727
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:13,959
Speaker 5: one and a half, but I'll probably throw that goes

728
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 5: to a decision in like a silly round robin or

729
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:18,919
Speaker 5: something just like the heavy ways we saw last week.

730
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:21,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, the three fights I just said, if that one

731
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 2: gets over the one and a half, I think that

732
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 2: one is like almost certainly going to decision.

733
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:27,800
Speaker 3: If there's a finish in that fight, I think it's quickly.

734
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,359
Speaker 2: I would actually prefer the fight ends in round one

735
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:32,799
Speaker 2: as opposed to the under one and half, maybe even

736
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 2: the under half round as it closed to the under

737
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 2: one and a half rounds. I think if that one finishes,

738
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 2: it's either like top of first exchange or to share

739
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:45,479
Speaker 2: a takedown into immediate submission against the white belt. Let's

740
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:47,799
Speaker 2: get to our best bet on this card, in an

741
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 2: underdog that we've teased a couple times. They're also each

742
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:52,760
Speaker 2: going to give out a favorite that we like as well.

743
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:58,320
Speaker 2: But Francisco Prato at plus two hundred against Jake Matthews. Now,

744
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 2: Matthews has fourteen wins in the UFC. He's been around

745
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 2: the organizations twenty fourteen. His best win is Lee Jing Lang,

746
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 2: who he knocked out. He beat at Diego Sanchez who

747
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:13,879
Speaker 2: retired or was cut subsequently. There's not a single other

748
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 2: fighter among Jays matthews twelve remaining wins who I have

749
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:22,760
Speaker 2: a vivid memory of their UFC run who had success

750
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:26,319
Speaker 2: in the UFC. This guy beats no name guys, and

751
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 2: anytime he takes any sort of step up in competition,

752
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:33,400
Speaker 2: he loses. Now he has a grappling advantage here, probably

753
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 2: he has a foreign treach advantage. But Proto's twenty two

754
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 2: and what I love. He lost to Daniozel Hohober in

755
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 2: a Fight of the Night in Mexico City. Gassed out

756
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 2: a little bit, but he's a little flabby at one

757
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,880
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty five pounds. Proto left his camp in

758
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:51,840
Speaker 2: Argentina and went to American Top Team, and now he

759
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 2: looks absolutely shredded at one hundred and seventy pounds. I

760
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:57,720
Speaker 2: think this guy found the best camp in the world,

761
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 2: the right weight class for him. He's now training with

762
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:05,280
Speaker 2: actual training partners. I'm not sure who he's training with specifically,

763
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:10,359
Speaker 2: but I know Santiago Ponzinibbio wealth rated att amasov Is

764
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 2: at att. I don't know if he's there fighting in Ukraine,

765
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 2: but there's a lot of bodies in that room for

766
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 2: Francisco Prato. Jake Matthews runs his own gym. He trains

767
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:24,040
Speaker 2: with local dudes in Australia and his dad. That's why

768
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 2: he's never made the necessary improvements to move up and level.

769
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:29,839
Speaker 2: I think Prato is the much better athlete in terms

770
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:32,720
Speaker 2: of durability and power. I think he's gonna clip Matthews.

771
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,319
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna put Matthews away. I don't even

772
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 2: know if Matthews is going to get the takedowns if

773
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,840
Speaker 2: he wants them. I think Proto at one hundred and

774
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 2: seventy pounds may have significant strength and physicality advantages. I

775
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:48,319
Speaker 2: think he finishes Matthews potentially even in round one. Give

776
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 2: me Proto on the money line at plus two hundred,

777
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,799
Speaker 2: by Ko at plus four or forty. We'll take a

778
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 2: look at some round one props as well. Billy, we're

779
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 2: in alignment on Francisco Prato. This is gonna be my

780
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 2: best bet regardless. I was very excited when I went

781
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 2: into our shared sheet and I saw you put Proto

782
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,480
Speaker 2: in as your best bettitude one, because I feel like

783
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:09,320
Speaker 2: I never see you take an underdog as your best bet.

784
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 2: So we're an agreement on Francisco Prato here. I like

785
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:14,399
Speaker 2: it down to about plus one sixty. Give me your

786
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 2: price target and tell me what I miss in terms

787
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 2: of analyzing that fight.

788
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:20,839
Speaker 4: Man, I might even go past plus one.

789
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 5: Like my price target is something that's not going to

790
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 5: happen in the market, So it's not we don't even

791
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 5: need to discuss, Like we're not going to see.

792
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 4: Something that I wouldn't take it at.

793
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 5: It's just a classic fight where I really like when

794
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:37,319
Speaker 5: we have an opportunity to project guys progression or for

795
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 5: lack of a better term, in their career.

796
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,319
Speaker 4: He's twenty two, He's not cutting a ton of weight.

797
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 5: He's not fighting at ten thousand feet above sea level

798
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:47,839
Speaker 5: in Mexico City where there's dirty air and cardios are off.

799
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:53,319
Speaker 5: It's like every like regression spot possible is all coalescing

800
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:53,719
Speaker 5: at once.

801
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 4: I didn't even know he changed camps.

802
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 5: That's a great point too, But just the weight class

803
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 5: and the age, the way in earlier this time, if

804
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 5: you due looks great like I don't know if there's

805
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 5: a special att supplement stack they have there, but he

806
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 5: looks great. And from a stylistic standpoint, the one thing

807
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:15,440
Speaker 5: I will add is we have often seen Matthews struggle

808
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 5: with like the hyper aggressive athletic guys who just take

809
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:21,360
Speaker 5: it to him. The Matthew Semmelsberger fight was a perfect

810
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 5: example that Semi was just on him and just a

811
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 5: better athlete and kind of just like out exploded him.

812
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 5: For lack of a better term, Prato obviously has the

813
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:34,399
Speaker 5: ability to do that as long as his cardio doesn't

814
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 5: fall off a cliff late. I don't really see how

815
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,760
Speaker 5: it goes wrong for him. With that said, if Prato

816
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:42,200
Speaker 5: like almost kills him through two rounds and you see

817
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 5: a plus one thousand on Jake Matthews or whatever, just

818
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 5: for your own mental health, just go ahead and throw

819
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:50,720
Speaker 5: like a quarter unit ont that if it gets crazy,

820
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:54,160
Speaker 5: Because I'm not super worried about his cardio given the

821
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 5: weight class and where his last fight was. But I'm

822
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:58,839
Speaker 5: a little bit worried about his cardio. If he fights

823
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,399
Speaker 5: to kind of fight, I think he should. So if

824
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:03,919
Speaker 5: you get that opportunity to just make your life more

825
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 5: comfortable with a big plus money ticket on Matthews, go

826
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 5: ahead and take it.

827
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 4: Other than that, I'm one hundred percent with you.

828
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love that you didn't even know he changed

829
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:14,799
Speaker 2: camps because I was of a similar mindset. I was like,

830
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 2: you know, even the the chubby lightweight moving up to

831
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,759
Speaker 2: one seventy off of his previous fights, the power that

832
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 2: he carries, the physicality that he has.

833
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 3: I kind of liked.

834
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:27,399
Speaker 2: Proto previous version of Prato against Jake Matthew's a plus

835
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:29,360
Speaker 2: two hundred. And I found out he went to att

836
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 2: I saw him on the scales and I was like,

837
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:35,280
Speaker 2: this guy went from chubby lightweight to shredded wealtherweight. Now

838
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 2: to your points about the cardio carrying more weight, carrying

839
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 2: more muscle, Yes, he's in better shape, but there could

840
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 2: be a trade off there. Right, he may be in

841
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:47,359
Speaker 2: better shape moving up in weight class, but now he's

842
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:50,399
Speaker 2: carrying more weight on him. Maybe that tires him out

843
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:52,319
Speaker 2: for the third round. You don't really know until you

844
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 2: see it. But in terms of being directionally correct regarding progression,

845
00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 2: we both like proto regardless of the ca switch. All

846
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 2: of this stuff at the camp switch, I think upgrades

847
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 2: his chances substantially. Att is the best camp of the world.

848
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 2: He looks like a physically different person than we saw

849
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:12,120
Speaker 2: a year ago. And that fight also took place in

850
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:14,960
Speaker 2: Mexico City. He was competitive with zel Hoover, who's a

851
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 2: much bigger guy.

852
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:17,319
Speaker 4: Who won the first round.

853
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 2: Again at the physical aspects, the physical tools that zell

854
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 2: Hooper does go ahead.

855
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:24,279
Speaker 5: I know, I did say he won the first round

856
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 5: again Selhua, Yeah, like unanimously, I think.

857
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:27,319
Speaker 3: And tired out.

858
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 2: And I think he may have taken that fight on

859
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 2: short notice too, I can't remember, but I mean the

860
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:34,879
Speaker 2: Mexico City aspect, like it was expected that he would

861
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 2: tire in round two I needed and that's what cost

862
00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:39,879
Speaker 2: him the fight. But one fight of the night fifty

863
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 2: thousand dollars bonus, got a fifty K bonus to fight

864
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 2: before that, probably was able to fund his move to

865
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 2: the United States and has moved to ATT and paying

866
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 2: for camp there. And I think we're going to see

867
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 2: a substantial progression from frass of this guy's twenty two

868
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 2: years old. I think he is a serious prospect in

869
00:40:56,920 --> 00:41:00,200
Speaker 2: this division now that he's moved camps to ATT. One

870
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 2: of the bet I want to give out at minus

871
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:04,880
Speaker 2: money gave Santos at minus two twenty five. Jack Jenkins

872
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 2: is probably the most popular pick this week in terms

873
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 2: of how I handicapped these fights. Relative to the betting odds.

874
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 2: People are picking Jenkins to win this fight sixty nine

875
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 2: percent of the time on average, as high as seventy

876
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 2: percent eighty percent in some data samples that I pulled.

877
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 2: Santos is a minus two twenty money line favorite. Just

878
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,759
Speaker 2: does not compute in terms of how I handicapped these

879
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 2: fights out in terms of modeling the data that I

880
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 2: have out there, Jenkins has been taken down by all

881
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 2: of his UFC opponents, including Herbert Burns, and that was

882
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:36,440
Speaker 2: a bad look for me, in particular because Burns is

883
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 2: a good grappler, he is not a good wrestler. Gave

884
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 2: Santos a much more powerful guy, a much better wrestler

885
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 2: than Burns. I don't think Jenkins is going to give

886
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,320
Speaker 2: any resistance here to take downs, and he tends to

887
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:48,239
Speaker 2: get stuck on his back?

888
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 3: What's he take him down too? And on the feet?

889
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 2: I think this is competitive at worst. I may even

890
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 2: favor Santos in the striking as well, aside from Jenkins'

891
00:41:56,080 --> 00:41:58,719
Speaker 2: leg kicks, So Santos on the money line probably like

892
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 2: them up to about minus two fifth if he may

893
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 2: even pair him with the moneyline favorite that you like

894
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:07,240
Speaker 2: Cody Steele, who we also bet by submission at plus

895
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 2: three eighty. But our best bets for this week Francisco

896
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:12,480
Speaker 2: Prado consensus on the money line at about plus two

897
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 2: hundred down to about plus one fifty. It won't get

898
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 2: to a level that we don't like it by ko

899
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 2: for me at plus four or forty, and then Santos

900
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 2: on the money line at minus two twenty five. You're

901
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 2: joining me on proto plus two hundred. You also like

902
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 2: Cody Steele on the money line at minus two twenty five.

903
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 2: Any other thoughts you have on that fight that you

904
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:29,360
Speaker 2: didn't get to.

905
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 5: I guess the only other thought is what if he

906
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:33,720
Speaker 5: ground and pounds him? Or what if he just wrestles

907
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 5: him the whole time? Look, I don't want to be

908
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 5: directionally correct that his grappling is so much better, but

909
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 5: he doesn't win a sub. So bet to win close

910
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:43,600
Speaker 5: to a unit on the money line forty unit or

911
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:46,359
Speaker 5: so sprinkle on sub and then get paid out either way,

912
00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:48,759
Speaker 5: get paid out bigly if he gets the submission.

913
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 2: Now, I'll do it for a UFC betting preview. You

914
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:53,040
Speaker 2: can find more UFC betting content for both Billy and

915
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 2: myself at actionnework dot com. Remember if you'd like to

916
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 2: instantly tail some of the bets we discussed on today's show,

917
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:02,360
Speaker 2: including for a Cisco proto look for the quick slip

918
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 2: link in the podcast and a video description, or visit

919
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 2: Actionnework dot com slash bet now. Don't forget to download

920
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 2: the free award winning Action NETWORKAP and sign up for

921
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:15,279
Speaker 2: Action Pro for meeting access to expert picks and analysis.

922
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:16,880
Speaker 2: Best of luck with all of your bests this weekend

923
00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 2: enjoy the violence.

924
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 3: Thank you for listening.

925
00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

926
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:34,080
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

927
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

928
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:37,800
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