1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,720 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us prout 2 00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: read enough? They're up for running a game so smooth, 3 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 1: so sweet, splendid sixteen just glorious text proturition. Guys, all 4 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four thousand percent 5 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: of the time. How shut with that shop of mind? 6 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: But buddy, and that's why you see nor beautiful tiers. 7 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 1: Look at his movements the most dangerous. 8 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 2: Amount of the planet. 9 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: Nobody picture them. Shut up, I'm trying the woe it's 10 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 1: left to of the wide eyed drill pibus, how old 11 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: earth pick that happens? 12 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 2: Hello, everybody, Welcome back to Wonder Goal, the soccer betting 13 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 2: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Lee 14 00:00:55,800 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 2: buff joining me today to discuss some Champions League It's 15 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 2: my friend and co host BJ Cunningham. Anthony Dubundo is out. 16 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 2: He's at the Philadelphia Union Booster Club meeting. I'm pretty 17 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 2: sure so we wish Anthony and the Phillies, the Union, 18 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:14,679 Speaker 2: all the Philadelphia sports teams the best. But BJ and 19 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 2: I have some business to attend to before we get 20 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 2: to that. Though. A reminder, Wonder Goal is presented by 21 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,960 Speaker 2: bet three six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign 22 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 2: up with promo Code Action to get Bet three six 23 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:29,679 Speaker 2: five's exclusive sign up offer in New Jersey, Colorado. Bet 24 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 2: one dollar on any game, get two hundred free. All right, BJ, 25 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:38,319 Speaker 2: This is the last match week of the group stage 26 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 2: of the Champions League. When we come back from the 27 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 2: World Cup sometime in I believe the middle of February, 28 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 2: we will start the knockout stage and we will start 29 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 2: with Group D, which is by far the most interesting 30 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 2: going into this last match week. Spurs are at the 31 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 2: top of the table with eight points, Sporting and Frankfurt 32 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 2: are behind them seven apiece, and then Say is at 33 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 2: the foot of the table but they have six points. 34 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 2: So any really, any combination of teams can advance. 35 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 1: Here. 36 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 2: Marseille hosts Spurs. Let's talk about this one first. The 37 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 2: French side there plus two hundred. Spurs are road favorites 38 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:15,359 Speaker 2: plus one thirty. The draw here is plus two forty. 39 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 2: Of course, these odds are coming to you from our 40 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:22,079 Speaker 2: friends at Bet three six five. You and I more 41 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 2: than Anthony, who is a Spurs fan. You're an Arsenal fan, 42 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:27,640 Speaker 2: so this is funny that I think you and I 43 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 2: are higher on Spurs than Anthony. Generally is paid off 44 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 2: this past weekend when they got a wonky win. It 45 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 2: it's born with I like Spurs here. I think this 46 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:38,680 Speaker 2: game kind of plays into their hands there. We talked 47 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 2: a little bit about this with at Letti and it 48 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 2: didn't pay off there. But there are very few managers 49 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 2: who I think handle these kind of situations better than 50 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 2: Diego Simioni or Antonio Conte. Where it's you basically you 51 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:54,240 Speaker 2: need to grind out whatever result you need, they will 52 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 2: set their team up to do. 53 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 1: So, Yeah, I don't know if Kante is going to 54 00:02:58,320 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 1: be on the sidelines because you got the right card 55 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 1: the end, So I mean, so I'm sure he has 56 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 1: just have his team set up, you know, the way 57 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 1: they need to be set up. So I don't really 58 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:05,920 Speaker 1: think that there's that gonna be that much of a 59 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: you know, disadvantage in not having content on the sidelines. 60 00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:10,960 Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm actually glad Anthony's not on this podcast 61 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: so we can actually talk to this without him just 62 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 1: poop pooing everything we say because coolest Evsky's out. But 63 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: the reality is is that Tottenham against Sporting in their 64 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:23,360 Speaker 1: last Champions League match, like they went behind early and 65 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:25,240 Speaker 1: then from then on they were with the better side 66 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:26,959 Speaker 1: when they had to kick it into high gear, right, 67 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:28,640 Speaker 1: so they ended up you know, it was one point 68 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:30,679 Speaker 1: seven two point seven on XG. They obviously had the 69 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 1: goal of vard Off at the very end, which is 70 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:35,119 Speaker 1: why Content got the red card, screaming at the referee, 71 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 1: screaming some obscenities at him. Then you look at this 72 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 1: last weekend. You know, Borne the scores two goals off 73 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 1: of a couple of low quality chances and Toddham has 74 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 1: to kick it into high gear and they end up 75 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 1: creating over two expected goals, scoring three and getting a 76 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 1: nice road win. Now we have a match where I mean, 77 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: this price is too cheap on Tottenham, Like we can 78 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 1: sit here and say, like there are problems with Tottenham'm like, 79 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: I don't know, I'm not so sure about the way 80 00:03:57,200 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: they're playing right now, but I mean plus one thirty 81 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 1: five on the road at Marseille, it's just far too cheap. 82 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 1: If you look at Marseille in the Champions League. It's 83 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 1: kind of funny. There's really only two matches we can 84 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 1: like glean from because right because the first match against 85 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: Tottenham they got a red card late in the second half. 86 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 1: The two matches against Sporting, Sporting got red cards inside 87 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:17,279 Speaker 1: the first twenty minutes, so you can't really glean anything 88 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 1: those two matches. So we have two matches against Frankfurt 89 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 1: where they lost both of them, and they deserve to 90 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 1: lose both of them. They only created one point four 91 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: expect goals total at a little over thirty touches in 92 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 1: Frankfort's penalty a combined over the two meetings. So, and 93 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 1: the other thing I like to like to say is okay, 94 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 1: the first time these two teams Matt Tottenham was minus 95 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 1: two hundred on the money line, I like to say fifty. 96 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 1: Usually fifty cents on the money line is where what 97 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 1: home field advantages is in the Champions League. So essentially 98 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 1: what you could say is like, all right, from that 99 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:45,840 Speaker 1: point on to this, like Tottenham should be even money. 100 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:47,720 Speaker 1: So now the market's selling like no, no, no, to Tottenham 101 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: has actually gotten worse since that point that they faced Marseille, 102 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 1: which is kind of true, I would say, like, but 103 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 1: not to this extent of thirty five cents on the 104 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 1: money line. And then also if you look at it, 105 00:04:57,520 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 1: I mean, these two teams have they have the exact 106 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:02,279 Speaker 1: same expect gold defficial in their domestic leagues. Totam's at 107 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 1: plus six point eight, Marseille is at plus six point eight. 108 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 1: The difference between Europe or between England and France is 109 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 1: a full goal the way I projected. And then if 110 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 1: you know, obviously, if you give a little bit of 111 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 1: home fiel advantage to Marseilles. So right there you're saying, okay, 112 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 1: Spurs should be about you know, minus point seventy five 113 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: really or even close, you know, so I have them 114 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:20,840 Speaker 1: projected at minus one forty So I think this price 115 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 1: is far too cheap on Tottam plus one thirty five 116 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 1: plus they have they have to win it, right because 117 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: Sportings sitting behind them, they have the they have the 118 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 1: tiebreaker over them. If Marseille ends up beating them, well 119 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 1: then they completely jump Tottenham or and you know they 120 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:36,600 Speaker 1: could they could scoreboard watch that's a dangerous game to play. 121 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:39,600 Speaker 1: So they have to go for this. And you know 122 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 1: the other thing you could say is like they have 123 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 1: Liverpool on deck, but you have to focus on the 124 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 1: Champions League and you got to get through. So I 125 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 1: like toddenam plus one thirty five and with. 126 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 2: You that point you made about Marseille. They need to win, right, 127 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:52,279 Speaker 2: Marseille has no choice. 128 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 1: So Todham can sit deep, right and they can just 129 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 1: counter them. 130 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:56,600 Speaker 2: That's what you want at a time. So like that's 131 00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:59,039 Speaker 2: what I'm saying with Conte, Like, yes, he's not gonna 132 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 2: be on the sideline, but we know who's managing this game, right, 133 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 2: Like it's going to be an Antonio Conte team. 134 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 1: He'll have they'll have a microphone, he'll have an ear 135 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: piece and he'll be he'll be relaying everything. Don't worry. 136 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,360 Speaker 2: I just think the situational spot. A lot of times 137 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:15,599 Speaker 2: we say with Stottingham, like handicapping them is is so 138 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 2: much more like art than a science because so much 139 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 2: comes down to stylistic kind of matchups. And this one 140 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 2: just really really begs you to bet on Spurs, even 141 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 2: as a road favorite. So I like Spurs plus one thirty. 142 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 2: I'm with you. I'm sure Anthony. Yeah, we're lucky not 143 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 2: to have Anthony here to throw cold border on it. 144 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 1: He'll just throw cold water, pooh pooh everything and just say, 145 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 1: oh my gosh, the sky is falling with them when 146 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 1: the reality is placed. They've created over two expected goals 147 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 1: in their last two good team yeah, good team yeah. 148 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 2: And and remember like the hype that surrounded time of 149 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:48,480 Speaker 2: coming in was like they were they they were supposed 150 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 2: to be doing what Arsenal was supposed to be doing 151 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 2: is doing right, Like they're the outsider that if if 152 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 2: one of Liverpool or City fell up, who's going to 153 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:56,480 Speaker 2: gate crash it? Everyone thought it was gonna be time. 154 00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 2: So like the we're still in third place, like it's 155 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 2: this is a great team. Still, let's talk about the 156 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 2: other game in Group D. As I said, Sporting and 157 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 2: frankfort are both tied same record two one and two 158 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 2: seven points a piece, so this one sets up on 159 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 2: a knife edge. Really the Sportings plus one thirty at home, 160 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 2: Frankfurt plus two to ten on the road. The draw 161 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 2: here is plus two forty. We think of these Portuguese 162 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 2: sides a lot as low block defend with your life, 163 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 2: especially in Champions League when you don't have the talent 164 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 2: level of the teams they are playing against. Sportings played 165 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 2: some pretty high event matches in the Portuguese Top Division 166 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 2: three point one eight goals per match total, which is 167 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 2: second most in Portugal. So I was kind of leaning 168 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 2: towards the Portuguese side here. I know you are going 169 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 2: that way, so I'm happy to be convinced to play 170 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 2: the home favorite here. 171 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's definitely a lean for me. I'm gonna need 172 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 1: a little bit of a better number on Sporting right 173 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 1: now because the reality is is I'm going to sit 174 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: here and say that I think I was kind of 175 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 1: wrong about Frankfort coming into the season, Like they have 176 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 1: performed much much better than their underlying numbers from last season. 177 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 1: A lot of what my projections have right now are 178 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 1: relying on those priors where Frankfort was you know minus 179 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 1: eleven expected gold of French. I mean even this past weekend, 180 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 1: like they lost to one to Dortmann, but they all 181 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 1: created them one point nine to point seven, like they 182 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 1: deserve to win that match if you look through you know, 183 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 1: even the last match against Sporting, like yes, Sporting one 184 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 1: to three nothing. They hurt Frankfort pretty badly on the 185 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 1: calendar and things kind of got out of hand once 186 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 1: Sporting scored the first goal. But you know final XG 187 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 1: was only zero point nine to point eight, like it 188 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: was actually a pretty close match. So you look at Sporting, 189 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 1: there's some weird game theory stuff going on here, right 190 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 1: because they have the tiebreaker over Tottenham and they won 191 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,679 Speaker 1: the first match against Frankfurt three to nothing, so as 192 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 1: long as they don't lose this match three nothing, they 193 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 1: will have the tiebreaker over them. But they are tied 194 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: on points, so you could say, all right, if Sporting 195 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:46,559 Speaker 1: just gets a draw and as long as Marseille doesn't 196 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 1: beat Tottenham like they're through, you could see a scenario 197 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 1: where Sporting gets you know, caught scoreboard watching to see 198 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 1: if Tottenham is actually going up on Marseille of whether 199 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 1: they need to kick it into high gear or not. 200 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,079 Speaker 1: So that's the thing about the final week of the 201 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 1: Champions League, when we have all this weird game theory 202 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 1: stuff going on, It's like it's hard for me to 203 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 1: sit here and recommend a bet on Sporting, whether it 204 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: be like a drawing no bet, especially paying a price 205 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:11,840 Speaker 1: of minus one twenty against you know Frankfort who absolutely 206 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 1: has to go for it and is playing a lot 207 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 1: better now. The flip side of that is is Frankfurt 208 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:19,080 Speaker 1: has been very vulnerable on the counter like and Sporting 209 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 1: can absolutely just pick them apart, just like they did 210 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 1: in the first meeting. So unless I get Sporting, you know, drawn, 211 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 1: no bett at you know, at SA minus one oh 212 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 1: five or even money, that would probably be my price 213 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 1: point to actually play them in this match, or if 214 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: you want to hop in the live. There's a lot 215 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 1: of good live betting scenarios as well, like in this too. 216 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 1: So I would recommend everybody out there just know what 217 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:42,440 Speaker 1: each team has to do to get to the round 218 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 1: of sixteen or to the Europa League to finish third place, 219 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:48,080 Speaker 1: because there are some opportunities to live bet here either 220 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 1: side Group B Bruges at the top with ten points 221 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,960 Speaker 1: as we all predicted, Portobert behind them at nine. At 222 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 1: Letty and Leverkusen are both out of the Champions League, 223 00:09:56,880 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 1: but that third place Europa League spot is still up 224 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 1: for grabs that Letty's five points lever Cousin's at four 225 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 1: Porto is hosting at Letty. Porto is plus one forty 226 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 1: five at home at Letty plus one eighty on the road. 227 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 2: The draw here is plus two forty. You think that 228 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 2: the from a motivational standpoint, Porto would get the edge 229 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:16,559 Speaker 2: right like they can win the group with the win. 230 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 2: Bruges is a big underdog on the road in lever Cousin, 231 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 2: so I'm sure at let it go. You know, maybe 232 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 2: they do want to keep playing Europe and soccer and 233 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 2: being got into the Europa League, but this is a 234 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:29,560 Speaker 2: club that you sit qualifying for the knockout stages. And 235 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:32,680 Speaker 2: this is a really, really tough one to break down 236 00:10:32,720 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 2: because of those kind of weird situations. So I would 237 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:39,680 Speaker 2: lean towards like I honestly wouldn't lean towards it. I 238 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:41,679 Speaker 2: have nothing here. I can I can't figure it out. 239 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 2: And it makes me say because I love this at 240 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 2: Letty team, right, we loved Simeoni, but I could totally 241 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,680 Speaker 2: see them just mailing in it, right. 242 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 1: And the problem is that Athletic COO's got some injuries 243 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 1: to Marotas out Condong, Bias out lemar Cooke, Marcus Hurente, 244 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:57,560 Speaker 1: like they're already dealing with a ton of injuries. That 245 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: it is. They had a very bad performance against over 246 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 1: the weekend, like he is one of the worst teams 247 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 1: in all of Europe. And they they minute goal they 248 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:08,120 Speaker 1: always always. 249 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 2: Seen plus nine when yeah Letty, yeah exactly. 250 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 1: There's always goals within like the ninth minute of sage time, right, 251 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:16,559 Speaker 1: and that's what happened in this match too, Right, it 252 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 1: was one of the worst beats ever under two and 253 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: a half, three goals in stoppage time. But yeah, it's 254 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: you know that first match, I mean, Athletic scored two 255 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 1: goals off point seven, So like it's difficult, right, and 256 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:29,080 Speaker 1: your Porto is just sitting there at plus one fifty, 257 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 1: like their incentive is to go forward and win, like 258 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:34,439 Speaker 1: a loss means absolutely nothing, like okay, we'll finished in 259 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 1: second place. But yeah, it's it's very, very difficult. You know, 260 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 1: these teams have obviously played each other many different times 261 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:43,560 Speaker 1: and there's just been chaos and every single match, but 262 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: Porto has held their own against Athletico and actually beating 263 00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 1: them on expected goals quite a few times. So if 264 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 1: you want to try and play Porto, you know, at 265 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: this number, like I do, have it projected right out 266 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 1: of pick them, so I highly doubt like if you 267 00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,319 Speaker 1: want to play Porto, I'd play them now because I 268 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 1: think as we get closer to match time and I 269 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:03,680 Speaker 1: think a lot of money will start to come in 270 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:06,439 Speaker 1: on Porto because they're really the only ones with some 271 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 1: true incentive here. And I don't know if that bloody 272 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 1: co anymore. Like it's just like I was so close 273 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 1: to playing them on on Saturday morning, Michael, But I 274 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 1: just stayed away. I was just like, all right, fine, 275 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 1: I'll just stay away because they were dropping down to 276 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 1: minus one fifty against one of the worst teams in Europe. 277 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:24,440 Speaker 1: So I don't know if Simoni anymore. I hope we're 278 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 1: not reaching the end with him, but no, so yeah, 279 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 1: but no, I'm I'm passing as well. This one's too 280 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 1: hard to figure out. 281 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:34,400 Speaker 2: No, we're never he's going to be there forever. 282 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:36,080 Speaker 1: Yeah. 283 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, Like what's his name? 284 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 1: Paid too much? Right? 285 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 2: That's the guy's name? Is coach k too? 286 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:41,360 Speaker 1: Yeah? That much? All right. 287 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 2: The other match here is levercusen Bruges Levercus and odds 288 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 2: on minus one seventy five at home bruses plus four hundred, 289 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 2: the plus three thirty three. I like Bruges here. I 290 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 2: like this price is too too high against Levercruz is 291 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 2: not that good. Like we talked about Least champiously episode. 292 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 2: You look at their underlying numbers in Germany, They're ugly. 293 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 2: They're like fringe of relegation form and this market is 294 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:09,320 Speaker 2: pricing them like this because this is a must win 295 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 2: spot for Levescous into qualify for Europa League so they 296 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 2: should play hard. And you know, brus is already qualified 297 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:20,079 Speaker 2: for the Champions League knockout stage, but Bruce could win 298 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 2: the group Like that's a huge deal. Like they're not 299 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 2: just gonna go to uh Levercus and not play it 300 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:30,719 Speaker 2: their A side, which sure like it's not gonna be 301 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 2: up there in talent level? Is Levercusin's right? This is 302 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:37,080 Speaker 2: this is not as straightforward as these odds suggest. So 303 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 2: I I like a bet here on Bruges at four 304 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:39,199 Speaker 2: to one. 305 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree. I actually like over three and 306 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 1: a half goals at plus one thirty. 307 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 2: And that's part of the reason I like it too. 308 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 1: Has chaos, chaos right over because with all of the 309 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 1: tie breakers. So what we have right now is is 310 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 1: Bruges is one point ahead of Porto. And but the 311 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:58,080 Speaker 1: reality is, with all the tie breakers, since Bruce should 312 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:00,719 Speaker 1: beat Portal for nothing in the first meeting, but then 313 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:03,400 Speaker 1: Porto beat them for nothing in the second meeting, all 314 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 1: of the head to heads mean absolutely nothing, which means 315 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 1: it goes to group goal differential and Porto has a 316 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:11,080 Speaker 1: one goal advantage over them. So now Bruce is sitting 317 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 1: there and they have to say, oh crap, we can't 318 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:15,200 Speaker 1: we have to go for this now, like we have 319 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 1: to go and try and win because Porto is essentially 320 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 1: going to They're going to be assuming they're going to 321 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: beat Athletico and which I think is going to create 322 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 1: an incredibly open match. You know, you look at the 323 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 1: last two match between these two teams, you know, only 324 00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: one point five goal expected goals were created, but Leverkusen 325 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 1: had two goals of art off Like it was a 326 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 1: very like back and forth type match. There was like 327 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: you know, they if you look at expected threat it 328 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 1: was quite high in the match. But yeah, like you said, 329 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,440 Speaker 1: with Leverkusen, like under Shabi Alonzo, there's just been a 330 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 1: lot of chaotic matches. You know, in three of their 331 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:47,880 Speaker 1: five matches they have created over two expected goals. Like, 332 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:50,160 Speaker 1: the offense is still there. Patrick Schick is coming back. 333 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 1: He made an appearance against Arby Leipsig this weekend, so 334 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 1: they will have their number one striker on the field 335 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 1: and I think Bruce is going to be happy to 336 00:14:57,520 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 1: sit back, which is going to create a lot of 337 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 1: open space with Leverkusen just having to go all in, 338 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 1: go for it like no matter what. That's going to 339 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:06,880 Speaker 1: create an incredibly open game. And guess what seem on 340 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 1: Minila is still due for some aggression. So I think 341 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 1: that this is going to create a very open match. 342 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 1: You know, I have a close to three and a 343 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 1: half goals projected for it, so I do like the 344 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 1: plus number at over three and a half. I think 345 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 1: we just have absolute chaos written all over this match. 346 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 2: The Group D matches here are the they have the 347 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 2: most drama, I guess on Tuesday, but this one has 348 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 2: the most chaos right on a Group C. Not too 349 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 2: much to talk about here. Byron at fifteen points have 350 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:32,360 Speaker 2: won the group Inter at ten points they're going to 351 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 2: be joining them in the knockout stages. Those two teams 352 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 2: will meet and then Barsa at four points they're already 353 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 2: going to the Europa League. Pleasant zero points are going 354 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 2: home Byron's two fifty hosting enter six to one. The 355 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 2: draw here is plus four hundred. This is like it's 356 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 2: a meaningless game. Inter are still good. Byron are really good. 357 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 2: It comes down to lineups. But I'm I think a 358 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 2: bet on Inter here is not a terrible idea because 359 00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 2: if you if let's say it's B squad versus B squad, 360 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 2: which I would say the most likely situation. You just 361 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 2: never know, right, Like there's gonna be like players looking 362 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 2: to get back into shape, there's all this stuff, like, 363 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 2: so six to one is worth it. And when these 364 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 2: lineups come out, I'm assuming this price is going to 365 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 2: come down on Inter because unless Bayron throws this like 366 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 2: a Jurgen Klop style of curveball, where you, yeah, he 367 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 2: plays everybody, So I'm going to be betting Inter like 368 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:22,600 Speaker 2: with the bruises bet. I think it's just you have 369 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 2: on these kind of match weeks, you have one of 370 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 2: two choices. You can either lean into the chaos or 371 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 2: basically just stay completely away from it. And I'm just 372 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 2: going to lean into like the weirdness and hope that, 373 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 2: you know, I can catch one of these big dogs. 374 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: Yeah. So it's it's interesting. I like under three and 375 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 1: a half goals, it's currently sitting of minus one twenty. 376 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 1: Like you said, with the lineups, it's it's interesting, you know, 377 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:45,120 Speaker 1: if you look back through you know, Bayron the last 378 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 1: two seasons have pretty much wrapped up their Champions League 379 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 1: groups like pretty handily and have had a couple of 380 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 1: meaningless matches. If you look at two years ago, they 381 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 1: played a match against at Lettyco meant absolutely nothing to them. 382 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 1: They drew them one one. They sat very deep and 383 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 1: just kind of, you know, just played the match out. 384 00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 1: If you look at last year they played, they played 385 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:06,360 Speaker 1: Barcelona in a completely meaningless match where Barcelona had everything 386 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:08,280 Speaker 1: to play for. They beat them three nothing and held 387 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:11,719 Speaker 1: Barcelona to point four expected goals. So I'm expecting Byron. 388 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 1: Like again, I don't really know what they're gonna do 389 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 1: with their lineups, Like I don't know if the World 390 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 1: Cup also kind of brings in some some interesting scenarios 391 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 1: with this, because you know, obviously Byron has a ton 392 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 1: of German players, and you know, is hansei Flick, who 393 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:27,719 Speaker 1: formally managed Bayern Munich, is he going to give give 394 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:29,640 Speaker 1: me a call to the Noglesman and saying like, hey, 395 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 1: you need to rest an RB, like you need to 396 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 1: rest Thomas Mueller, you need to rest him itch all 397 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 1: these guys in a completely meaningless match. And I think 398 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:39,200 Speaker 1: they it would be in their best interest to do that. 399 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 1: Like if you look at Byron's upcoming schedule, they it's 400 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:44,679 Speaker 1: pretty easy up until the World Cup, and you know, 401 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 1: Union Blen's already gonna win the Bundesliga, so they don't 402 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 1: you know they have no incentive to really try and 403 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 1: go for it. I mean they got hurt their bilin 404 00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 1: word of Remen and Shaalka on deck before the World Cup, 405 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 1: so you could see Byron shut it down and just 406 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:58,719 Speaker 1: say like, oh, this match means nothing, We're not going 407 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 1: to play anybody, like just going to be B squad, 408 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:04,879 Speaker 1: whereas Ter, on the other hand, like they could play 409 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:07,880 Speaker 1: some guys try and go for this. Like it's hard 410 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 1: to sit here and just like you know, try to 411 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 1: do like a tactical or like a statistical analysis of 412 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,640 Speaker 1: like these two teams when the match means absolutely nothing. 413 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna bet under three and a FF goals 414 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:19,679 Speaker 1: because I think that's just it's far too high in 415 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 1: a match where you know, we have two teams who 416 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:23,680 Speaker 1: are essentially, I think, are just going to pass the 417 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 1: ball around. Because again, this World Cup thing that's looming 418 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,919 Speaker 1: over everybody like does play into it where guys are 419 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,120 Speaker 1: now starting to think, like, I don't want to get 420 00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:33,879 Speaker 1: hurt before the World Cup. So am I really going 421 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:37,120 Speaker 1: to be like pressing like like like crazy and trying 422 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 1: to make tackles and you know, like like sprinting as 423 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:41,399 Speaker 1: fast as I can like, no, this is like I 424 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:42,879 Speaker 1: have feeling this is going to be a pass the 425 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 1: ball around for ninety minutes and let's go home. So 426 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:47,320 Speaker 1: I'm on under three and alf goals. 427 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, And a lot of times we kind of dread 428 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:54,160 Speaker 2: situations like this, but I think it's you know, as 429 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 2: you only get a few opportunities like this a season, 430 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,359 Speaker 2: and this isn't just to soccer, it's all sports, like 431 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:04,440 Speaker 2: you know, Week seventeen in the NFL, and right like that, 432 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:06,560 Speaker 2: like you need to just kind of come up with 433 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 2: your own little game plan, right to figure out like 434 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:11,879 Speaker 2: how's the best way to extract, like to put myself 435 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:14,399 Speaker 2: in the best position that if this, this and this 436 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 2: go happen, I come away with a big payday. 437 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,720 Speaker 1: Right, And I think the biggest thing especially to go 438 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 1: for this match, but for every single match in the 439 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:24,359 Speaker 1: Champions League cacuse we do have a lot of matches 440 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:26,879 Speaker 1: that mean absolutely nothing, or one team's playing for something, 441 00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:30,200 Speaker 1: one team's not. It's lineups. Honestly, it just comes down 442 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,199 Speaker 1: to lineups. And so if you know, if you're new 443 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 1: to betting, soccer, lineups usually come out one hour before 444 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:37,439 Speaker 1: the match. So usually what I do, I know Anthony 445 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:39,120 Speaker 1: does this as well. But I sit down one hour 446 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,719 Speaker 1: before the match and I'm checking I've got you know, 447 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,040 Speaker 1: notifications on the team's twitter pages until that's usually how 448 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,399 Speaker 1: they put them out, and then line move, lines move 449 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 1: like crazy after the lineups come out. So if you 450 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,040 Speaker 1: really want to be on top of things, like you know, 451 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: wait until though everybody's lineup come out and just like 452 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:56,840 Speaker 1: know who to keep players off for every team and 453 00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:59,480 Speaker 1: if they're playing or not. So that would be my 454 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:02,400 Speaker 1: best record in dation to everybody how to manage these 455 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:03,679 Speaker 1: type of Champions League matches. 456 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,400 Speaker 2: Speaking of meaningless pleasant, they're ten to one at home 457 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 2: hosting Barcelona minus four hundred the drug here's plus five hundred. 458 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 2: Yeah I got nothing, I got nothing. Yeah it's Barcelona 459 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 2: could play their D squad and it won't matter. 460 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 1: Right, it won't matter, but it does. It does make 461 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,040 Speaker 1: a good point. It is a good point. That's you know, 462 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 1: for pleasant, like they're not going through. This match is 463 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:26,440 Speaker 1: at home, like it means everything everything to them even 464 00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 1: though they're not going through, so they're actually going to 465 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 1: put forth a full, full effort, whereas Barcelona has absolutely 466 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 1: nothing to play for. So I mean, you could play 467 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:38,639 Speaker 1: that card, but then yeah, Barcelona player d squad and 468 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 1: the second that Pleasant tries to do any sort of 469 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:45,680 Speaker 1: pressing or getting guys going forward, Barcelona could just punish 470 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 1: them and win this match seven nothing. So who knows. 471 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 1: Just these type of scenarios are best to just kind 472 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 1: of avoid and move on. 473 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:56,479 Speaker 2: Group A. Napolis at the top fifteen points, Liverpool twelve, 474 00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:00,880 Speaker 2: I exit three, Rangers zero. Liverpool is on at home 475 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 2: minus one thirty eight Napolis plus three twenty on the 476 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:07,480 Speaker 2: Rivers plus three twenty. Liverpool just lost the leads. They 477 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 2: lost it. They've lost to Nottingham Forest, they've beaten Man City, 478 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,119 Speaker 2: they got pasted by Napoli in the first meeting. I 479 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 2: just I don't have anything here except that I don't 480 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 2: think that you can make Liverpool minus one. Yeah, it's 481 00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 2: a team like Napoli right now, but it's just the 482 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:23,920 Speaker 2: situation that scares me off. 483 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:28,119 Speaker 1: The Italians, I mean Napoli, they just need to essentially 484 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 1: not lose three nothing, right, That's basically what it is, 485 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 1: or some type of other wonky score. So yeah, it's 486 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:37,080 Speaker 1: I mean, they're gonna sit deep and they're going to 487 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:40,720 Speaker 1: counter Liverpool, whose looks terrible in transition defense. They're just 488 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 1: making mistakes left and right. And the biggest thing here, 489 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 1: Michael is that Liverpool has Tottenham on deck in on 490 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:50,600 Speaker 1: the weekends, so I don't know what club's gonna do. 491 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,800 Speaker 1: Like he's in a very like impossible situation where he 492 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 1: like the realities should say that Liverpool should rest guys 493 00:21:57,640 --> 00:21:59,760 Speaker 1: and then they should focus on the matchkins Tottenham because 494 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,640 Speaker 1: they are falling behind big time in the Premier League 495 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 1: and that the reality of them actually beating Napoli three 496 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,880 Speaker 1: nothing is just not It's just not there right now. 497 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:12,480 Speaker 1: So for me, I would say, you know, minus one 498 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,440 Speaker 1: thirty eight is steep, Like you know, I'd wait until 499 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,879 Speaker 1: lineups come out. But for Liverpool, they really probably should 500 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 1: be resting guys, and the same thing with Napoli, Like 501 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 1: Napoli will probably be resting guys as well, Like they 502 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,680 Speaker 1: don't really have any incentive. They'll probably keep those guys 503 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 1: in the bench, you know, in case they need them. 504 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 1: But this is one of the other matches that's just 505 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 1: very very hard to play given the fact that Napoli 506 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:35,440 Speaker 1: has that big of a significant of a tiebreaker over 507 00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:37,640 Speaker 1: them of that four to one meeting, and guess what 508 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 1: it was deserved too, because they created four expected goals 509 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 1: against Liverpool. So I'm not really sure what to do 510 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 1: with Liverpool right now. I think the best case scenario 511 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,240 Speaker 1: is just for them to just get through, like, just 512 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 1: get through this match, down in the injuries, honestly, and 513 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 1: then get to the match Againsttenham on the weekend. 514 00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 2: Rangers and I actually is the other match in this group. 515 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,400 Speaker 2: Rangers plused to eighty at home, I explained to twenty 516 00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:01,719 Speaker 2: eighteen on the the DRUS plus three hundred. Again, I'm 517 00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 2: not going near No. 518 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,000 Speaker 1: I'm not and Rangers and I thought about it for 519 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 1: a second, but Rangers has a ton of injuries. So 520 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 1: if you're thinking, like, oh my gosh, this is the 521 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,399 Speaker 1: last chance for Rangers, like I X has nothing to 522 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,119 Speaker 1: play for, like Rangers has a ton of guys injured 523 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:15,200 Speaker 1: and they just don't care. 524 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:21,159 Speaker 2: So yeah, pass, Let's flip to Wednesday now. Before we 525 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,080 Speaker 2: do that, a reminder that Wonder Goal is presented by 526 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 2: Bet three six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign 527 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 2: Up with promo code action to get BET three six 528 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 2: fives exclusive sign up offer in New Jersey and Colorado. 529 00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,199 Speaker 2: Bet one dollar on any game you can get two 530 00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:40,120 Speaker 2: hundred three Wednesday. Let's talk about Chelsea's group. Chelsea ten 531 00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:44,280 Speaker 2: points at the top. They're through, Milan seven points, Salsburg 532 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:48,280 Speaker 2: right behind them at six, Zagrib at four. Technically any 533 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 2: of these three teams could get through, but a lot 534 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 2: of things would have to break right. For sav Milan 535 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 2: is minus one. Ady at home hosting Salzburg, we're eight 536 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,440 Speaker 2: to one to draw here is plus three twenty one. 537 00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,160 Speaker 2: Thing that's interesting about this line teams is they're being 538 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 2: disrespect I mean, we don't think they're as good as 539 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 2: they're not in the elite tier of the Champions League teams. 540 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 2: They're not even in that second tier probably, But there 541 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 2: are only three losses this season Chelsea twice and Napoli 542 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,439 Speaker 2: who both those teams you could put close to that 543 00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:18,200 Speaker 2: elite tier in the Champions League groups. In the Champions 544 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 2: League field, I would lean towards Salisburg here. That being said, 545 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:24,439 Speaker 2: I just do you trust Milan in the situation as 546 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,200 Speaker 2: a minus one AD eight favorite, not with what we've 547 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,680 Speaker 2: seen out of them. I don't think. I know. Anthony 548 00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,240 Speaker 2: will probably be playing the Austrian side too, will probably 549 00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,919 Speaker 2: play the spread. What do you have here? 550 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 1: Yeah? I do like under two and a half at 551 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,720 Speaker 1: plus one fifteen. So the reality is is that Milan 552 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,879 Speaker 1: just needs to get a draw and they are through 553 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 1: pretty much. If you look at you know, Salisburg's one 554 00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,479 Speaker 1: point behind them. The last meeting between these two, it was, 555 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,200 Speaker 1: you know, pretty even, it was one to one. Salisburg 556 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,399 Speaker 1: won on expected goals one point three too point nine. 557 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 1: The reason, you know, I don't hate to play on 558 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,760 Speaker 1: Salisburg plus one like I know Anthony likes, I do 559 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 1: like under two and a half, because again, Milan is 560 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:02,959 Speaker 1: going to play very defensive, and the reality of what 561 00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:05,000 Speaker 1: Salsburg has done and they've shown in the Champions League 562 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,760 Speaker 1: when they've played Chelsea and they've played a cymlan is 563 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:09,520 Speaker 1: they've sat back in a four to four to two 564 00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:11,639 Speaker 1: or some type of variation of that, and they've essentially 565 00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:14,399 Speaker 1: just looked to counter them. Now, when they went behind 566 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 1: against Chelsea, like you saw it, they kicked into high 567 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 1: gear and they went for it and they created a 568 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:20,240 Speaker 1: bunch of chances. But at the other end of that 569 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 1: spectrum is is since they're playing so defensive, since they're 570 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,359 Speaker 1: playing such a low block, if they are able to 571 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:29,239 Speaker 1: go ahead against Acey Milan, they're going to sit on it, 572 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 1: like they're not one of these teams that's going to say, 573 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:32,800 Speaker 1: all right, let's continue to keep this game open and 574 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:36,199 Speaker 1: go for it and everything like that. So I expect 575 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,080 Speaker 1: Milan to try to control a lot of possession. I 576 00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 1: expect them to also play very defensive and play very 577 00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 1: conservative for most of this match. And what I've seen 578 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:47,520 Speaker 1: from from Salsburg and Champions League past is that they're 579 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 1: not the type of team it's like, oh my gosh, 580 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 1: we need to go for this. Let's just come out, 581 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 1: you know, balt the wall, Let's go after these teams 582 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,200 Speaker 1: and try and win it like that hasn't really been them, 583 00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:57,800 Speaker 1: Like even if you look at the match against Byron 584 00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 1: last year, like you know, they obviously lost seven to 585 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:03,199 Speaker 1: one in the reverse fixture, but you know a lot 586 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:05,600 Speaker 1: of that had to do with Byron just going ballistic. 587 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,800 Speaker 1: But the reality is they're going to set up very defensive, 588 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,240 Speaker 1: and they're going to wait for their moments to counter. 589 00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,400 Speaker 1: And basically what they do is they try to bait 590 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 1: these bigger sides like Chelsea or or Milan into making 591 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 1: a mistake and then they just have a lot of 592 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 1: speed youth going forward on the counter and I expect 593 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:23,080 Speaker 1: them to do that in this match as well, you know, 594 00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,040 Speaker 1: And and I think under two and a half, you know, 595 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 1: especially at plus one fifteen is a little too big 596 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 1: of a price for me to play it, considering one 597 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 1: of these teams is going to have is wanting to 598 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 1: just get a draw. I don't hate to play on 599 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 1: Salisburg plus one, but I'm beyond undertwo and half goals 600 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:37,120 Speaker 1: at plus one fifteen. 601 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,960 Speaker 2: Chelsea minus three hundred, as they said, they're through. They 602 00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,199 Speaker 2: just need to eke out a point really or I 603 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:43,560 Speaker 2: mean they. 604 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 1: Have the tiebreaker over Milan, so if they already wont 605 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 1: h they won the group right, so you expect them 606 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:55,359 Speaker 1: to rest people zagrib can can get to the Europa League, 607 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,119 Speaker 1: and they'll be gunning for it because they'll look at 608 00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,840 Speaker 1: They'll look at the matchup that Salisburg has in Milan, 609 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:00,920 Speaker 1: think they're going to lose. 610 00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 2: So if we can steal something from Chelsea for the 611 00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:07,320 Speaker 2: second time in this group stage, we can do it. 612 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,080 Speaker 2: They're eight to one. The Croatia side are the draw. 613 00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 2: Here's plus four twenty five. I mean you either look 614 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:15,560 Speaker 2: at the underdog here, you get the hell away of 615 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:17,560 Speaker 2: this from this match and playing a side. 616 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:19,960 Speaker 1: I don't hate to look at at Zagreb either on 617 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 1: the money line or plus one and a half at 618 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 1: at minus one time, which is a pretty decent price. 619 00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:26,159 Speaker 1: You know, they obviously performed very well against Chelsea in 620 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,400 Speaker 1: this meeting last time, Like okay, it's it's a little 621 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,199 Speaker 1: bit of a different scenario. Like the last time, they 622 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 1: were able to sit in a low block and counter 623 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,200 Speaker 1: and then they converted you know, a couple of chances 624 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,600 Speaker 1: that they had and expect goals ended up being even 625 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:38,159 Speaker 1: and it ended up being the end of Thomas Tucul 626 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,920 Speaker 1: as well. But you look at the matches against AC Milan, 627 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,399 Speaker 1: They've gotten trounced in both of those meetings. You know, 628 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,080 Speaker 1: the Milan created over five and a half expected goals 629 00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 1: combined in those two meetings. And when Zagreb has to 630 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,320 Speaker 1: play very open like you saw against AC Milan, like 631 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 1: things kind of get out of hands. So but yeah, 632 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:59,679 Speaker 1: from a just from a you know, rotational spot, I mean, 633 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 1: are gonna have to rotate guys like there would be 634 00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:06,120 Speaker 1: no incentive to actually play some of their best players. 635 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:09,240 Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't hate to look at Zagreb. You know, 636 00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:10,680 Speaker 1: plus one and a half. This is another one of 637 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,320 Speaker 1: those things where I would I would wait for lineups 638 00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,360 Speaker 1: to come out before playing it. But yeah, I'm I'm 639 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,399 Speaker 1: leaning towards Zagreb. I don't all have the courage to 640 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,520 Speaker 1: play it, though. We'll see. 641 00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:24,040 Speaker 2: We got a couple of days to work it up 642 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:24,399 Speaker 2: all of a. 643 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:26,480 Speaker 1: Sudden the action network gap and find out if I 644 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 1: have the courage or not. 645 00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:31,440 Speaker 2: Let's move to the real Madrid group there at the 646 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:37,120 Speaker 2: top with ten points, Lipsac nine points, Shaktar six, Celtic two. 647 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 2: Now let's look at Shocktar and Leipzig first. This one's 648 00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:45,720 Speaker 2: taking place in Warsaw. Shocktar is plus three thirty three 649 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,480 Speaker 2: at quote unquote home, Leipzig minus one fifty on the 650 00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,240 Speaker 2: road to draw here is plus three thirty three Lipzig 651 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:55,600 Speaker 2: second best expectacle differential in the Bundesliga. We said that, 652 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 2: you know, like, we mentioned them as a potential long 653 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,920 Speaker 2: shot bet before the group's ages. I still like them. 654 00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:02,640 Speaker 2: They're sixty six to one at PET three six five 655 00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:05,040 Speaker 2: to win the whole tournament. Something that's an interesting number 656 00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:07,160 Speaker 2: if you are looking for a long shot to back. 657 00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 2: When you think about last last year, this is about 658 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:12,479 Speaker 2: the time where we started to really pump the tires 659 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,560 Speaker 2: for Via Reale at two hundred and one, and we 660 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,400 Speaker 2: got that one in the semi finals. So I'll be 661 00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,560 Speaker 2: on my lookout for this season's yellow submarine. It might 662 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 2: be Lipzig a much shorter number, but still that said, 663 00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,320 Speaker 2: I got nothing here. You know, it's a tough situation 664 00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 2: for Leipsig. Your Shocktar has got to go for it. 665 00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:30,920 Speaker 2: It's it all on spot, and Leipzig will too, because 666 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:32,600 Speaker 2: I'll try to win this group and hope that you know, 667 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:37,520 Speaker 2: maybe Real Madrid slips up at Celtic. We're hosting Celtic. 668 00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's funny because you know, this is their 669 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,960 Speaker 1: worst fixture of this was the famous Shaktar winning four 670 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:47,720 Speaker 1: to one in Germany off of five shots. So yeah, 671 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:51,120 Speaker 1: I don't like the scenario, Like I think just the 672 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 1: matches priced correctly. That's like I was looking maybe to 673 00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:58,959 Speaker 1: playing Shaktar here because you know, despite you know, them 674 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,440 Speaker 1: overperforming on X and we can go into that. But 675 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,440 Speaker 1: like they've sad and well in their defensive blocks and 676 00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,719 Speaker 1: they've countered like very effectively. They still have some attacking 677 00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:11,880 Speaker 1: players that can give Rbleipsig a lot of problems, just 678 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,640 Speaker 1: like they did here in the first meeting. So you know, 679 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:16,720 Speaker 1: with Lipstick going for it, it does create a little 680 00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,920 Speaker 1: bit more of an open match. But then again, you know, 681 00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:20,480 Speaker 1: if Shocktar is going to have to come out of 682 00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,560 Speaker 1: their very very low defensive block they've played through the 683 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,280 Speaker 1: first five matches like, that's a scary thought, especially with 684 00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:29,560 Speaker 1: in Cuckoo and Timo Warner and Andre Silva coming at you. 685 00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:32,240 Speaker 1: So I'm actually staying away. I think this this match 686 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,840 Speaker 1: is actually priced correctly. You know, I have I have 687 00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,120 Speaker 1: Arbilipstick around minus one twenty, you know, so I can 688 00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:39,080 Speaker 1: say they're a little bit overvalued. But I it's a 689 00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 1: scary thought trying to take Shocktar when they are not 690 00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:43,920 Speaker 1: able to sit back in their defensive block. So I'm 691 00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:45,800 Speaker 1: passing wet Madrid. 692 00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:53,000 Speaker 2: This one's gonna gosh, this is oh So there was 693 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:54,320 Speaker 2: just no way I was gonna sit this one out, 694 00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,680 Speaker 2: you know. Yeah, Madrid are minus four fifty at home 695 00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:01,120 Speaker 2: Celtic ten to one, the draws six one. Here's something 696 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 2: we know about real Madrid. Once a group stage, they 697 00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 2: just don't show up. We usually see it early because 698 00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:09,760 Speaker 2: they can pace themselves. They know they can. They'll back 699 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:11,720 Speaker 2: themselves to get into the knockout stages. Even if they 700 00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:13,680 Speaker 2: trap a group and they don't really care if they 701 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 2: finish a topic group. Sure they want to win the group, 702 00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,720 Speaker 2: but or finish second because they're real Madrid like, they'll 703 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:20,600 Speaker 2: they'll take care of whoever in the knockout stages with 704 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:22,840 Speaker 2: a really tough to beat in that kind of format. 705 00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,160 Speaker 2: This is it for Celtic, right, this is last hurrah. 706 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:27,880 Speaker 2: They don't get to go to the Champions League very often, 707 00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:30,240 Speaker 2: been a long time since Celtic. We're in the group 708 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 2: stages and they get a chance to go to the 709 00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:36,640 Speaker 2: Bernabow and collect a famous win, so they'll be up 710 00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:40,600 Speaker 2: for it. The Scottish Premiership is always like them or Rangers, 711 00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:42,600 Speaker 2: they'll you know, they'll be neck and neck forever or whatever. 712 00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,440 Speaker 2: It's like this doesn't really weigh in on the equation here, 713 00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:50,240 Speaker 2: So this is kind of like an insular almost almost 714 00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:54,520 Speaker 2: like a testimonial or like preseason friendly style match, right, 715 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:57,400 Speaker 2: And that's why I think you lean it to chaos 716 00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:59,240 Speaker 2: and you take ten to one here. 717 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:03,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, I just looking at this, it's so so hard 718 00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:06,760 Speaker 1: not to take Celtic, Like I bet them every single 719 00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:08,840 Speaker 1: match in this Champions League and I have not won 720 00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:12,040 Speaker 1: one bet on them, and I am just staring down it, 721 00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:14,080 Speaker 1: like purely from like a number's perspective. I do have 722 00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,040 Speaker 1: I had value on Celtic when they were playing at 723 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,400 Speaker 1: Celtic Park, and I still have value on them here 724 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:20,760 Speaker 1: when they're going to the bernabout you could make the 725 00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:22,760 Speaker 1: case that Kareem Benzem was probably not going to play 726 00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:24,640 Speaker 1: in this match, which gives, you know, Celtic a little 727 00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:26,960 Speaker 1: bit of an advantage. But the reality is that I 728 00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:28,840 Speaker 1: just don't know if I can do it anymore. Michael. 729 00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:30,560 Speaker 1: I think I have to sit back and pass this 730 00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 1: one because Celtic can go for it, and that's wonderful. 731 00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,280 Speaker 1: But when we saw once things started to open up 732 00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:38,720 Speaker 1: after this, after you know, Venetius Junior scored the first 733 00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:41,760 Speaker 1: goal in the first meeting, like things got really really bad. 734 00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,120 Speaker 1: And it's happened to them against rby Leipsig as well. 735 00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:46,320 Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, if you're going to play something, 736 00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 1: play Celtic on the money line, like, don't play them 737 00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:50,920 Speaker 1: on the spread, because once things get out of hand, 738 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,560 Speaker 1: they get out of hand very quickly. But I mean Celtic, 739 00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:57,840 Speaker 1: they only have a minus point three expect a goldifferential 740 00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:00,480 Speaker 1: in this group, but a minus seven actual goal frontal, 741 00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,760 Speaker 1: so like they've been unlucky. A lot of that is 742 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:07,520 Speaker 1: their matches against Shocktar and Leipzig. But yeah, I just 743 00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:09,239 Speaker 1: don't know if I can do it anymore. But there 744 00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:10,320 Speaker 1: is some value on Celtic. 745 00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:12,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, you can do it. I'll convince you by one. Yeah, 746 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:16,960 Speaker 2: a little sprinkle on, A little sprinkle sprinkle one yeah, 747 00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:20,280 Speaker 2: all right. Group h now PSG and Benfica. They're tied 748 00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,480 Speaker 2: at the top of the group at eleven points. Juve 749 00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:25,040 Speaker 2: and Haifa at the foot of the group. They both 750 00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:28,680 Speaker 2: have three points. Haifa they're plus three fifty at home 751 00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,400 Speaker 2: hosting Benfica, minus one fifty on the road. The draw 752 00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:35,040 Speaker 2: here is plus three twenty. Similarly, Juventus is plus three 753 00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:38,120 Speaker 2: fifty at home hosting PSG, minus one forty three on 754 00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,320 Speaker 2: the road. The draw is just a little shorter at 755 00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:43,680 Speaker 2: plus three hundred. Both of these matches are a pass 756 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,000 Speaker 2: for me. Juventus was the only one I was kind 757 00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:48,680 Speaker 2: of interested in, but as you'll explain, you just can't 758 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:50,880 Speaker 2: do it because of the injury list. 759 00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:53,800 Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, I was. I was actually looking forward to 760 00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:55,720 Speaker 1: playing uventss. I thought they've kind of turned a corner 761 00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:58,960 Speaker 1: a little bit. If you look at their results in Syria. Ah, 762 00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,840 Speaker 1: like they've been playing much better lately, and even the 763 00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:05,240 Speaker 1: match against Benefica, like they I know they lost fourth three, 764 00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:08,160 Speaker 1: but like they created almost three expected goals and we're 765 00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:11,080 Speaker 1: actually in the match and looked much better offensively, And 766 00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:13,560 Speaker 1: the reality is is that you know PSG on the 767 00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:16,960 Speaker 1: other hand, like they they kind of like, yeah they 768 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,680 Speaker 1: beat high of seven to two, but they just basically 769 00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,160 Speaker 1: were able to do whatever they wanted offensively against them. 770 00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:24,200 Speaker 1: They scored on pretty much every single shot they took. 771 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:26,799 Speaker 1: And then they played a very sleepy match against Troy 772 00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:28,759 Speaker 1: over the weekend and had to end up winning for 773 00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:31,840 Speaker 1: to three against them against the bottom tier league Uside. 774 00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,560 Speaker 1: So you know, Juventus right now designed Leojovic's out. It 775 00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:40,400 Speaker 1: looks like Leandrew Paradise bremer di Maria disiglo. Look itatelli, 776 00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,680 Speaker 1: they're all out. So it's uh, it's really hard for 777 00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,520 Speaker 1: me to sit here and play Uventus given all of 778 00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,279 Speaker 1: those injuries. So I will be passing. But Uventus is 779 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,880 Speaker 1: in a very very weird spot, as we'll explain the 780 00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:55,680 Speaker 1: Hypha match because they lost to nothing in Israel and 781 00:34:55,800 --> 00:35:00,200 Speaker 1: the reverse match was three to one in Italy. Third 782 00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,279 Speaker 1: tiebreaker after you go with it's you know, head to 783 00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:06,720 Speaker 1: head points, then head to head gold differential, it's goals 784 00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:09,160 Speaker 1: and head to head matchups. So Heyfus scored one more 785 00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,960 Speaker 1: goal than Juventus, so they have the tiebreaker over them. 786 00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:16,480 Speaker 1: So it creates this very weird scenario where Juventus they 787 00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:19,520 Speaker 1: like a loss doesn't get them through, like they have 788 00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,080 Speaker 1: to draw or they have to win. So but they're 789 00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,320 Speaker 1: playing a bunch of backups, which makes it very dangerous 790 00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:26,839 Speaker 1: with PSG obviously having to win it. So I am 791 00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:29,040 Speaker 1: passing on this one because it's too many injuries for Juventus. 792 00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:33,120 Speaker 2: All right, Group G Man City there at the top 793 00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:38,239 Speaker 2: on eleven points, Dortmund eight, Sevia five, Copenhagen two. City 794 00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:41,360 Speaker 2: is minus four fifty hosting Sevilla eleven to one. To 795 00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:42,920 Speaker 2: draw here is plus for five to fifty. I got 796 00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:44,560 Speaker 2: nothing here either, is pretty easy pass. 797 00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:47,319 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a lineup. The only thing I would 798 00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:50,319 Speaker 1: say is is keep an eye, like, I don't really 799 00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:52,880 Speaker 1: care what if City wants to rotate guys against Sevia 800 00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,360 Speaker 1: that they'll probably end up pounding them. Holland's not going 801 00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:58,160 Speaker 1: to play against Sevilla. Pep already said that, so but 802 00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:00,960 Speaker 1: then again, it doesn't really matter. The other match, the 803 00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:03,400 Speaker 1: Dortmund one, is a little bit interesting, kind of like 804 00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:07,040 Speaker 1: like I've said with the you know, uh Victoria pleasant situation, 805 00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:10,120 Speaker 1: that this match means everything to Copenhagen even though they're 806 00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:12,640 Speaker 1: not going to go through, like they get Dormant at 807 00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:16,040 Speaker 1: home and we'll see. My guess is Dormant is gonna 808 00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:19,000 Speaker 1: rest a ton of guys in this match since it 809 00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:21,920 Speaker 1: means nothing. So you can maybe convince me with a 810 00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,399 Speaker 1: play on Copenhagen. But again I would have to wait 811 00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:26,840 Speaker 1: until the lineups come out to see who Dortmand is 812 00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,320 Speaker 1: actually going to play in this match. But you know, 813 00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:31,880 Speaker 1: Copenhagen since their last Champions League match, like they're going 814 00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:33,520 Speaker 1: to play all their starters and they're going to give 815 00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:35,879 Speaker 1: a full effort. So if I would play anything among 816 00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:38,840 Speaker 1: these two matches, maybe a play on Copenhagen on the 817 00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:40,160 Speaker 1: money line or plus half a goal. 818 00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:43,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, Copenhagen's plus three thirty three, Dortmund MNUS won forty 819 00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:45,960 Speaker 2: three and the draws plus three thirty three. I thought 820 00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,160 Speaker 2: the same thing, like, maybe, you know, with nothing at 821 00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:51,400 Speaker 2: stake for Dormand it's it's a Copenhagen play, but probably 822 00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:56,120 Speaker 2: a pass I'll spend my underdog money on team better 823 00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:59,000 Speaker 2: teams like you know Celtic Europa League, real quick, you 824 00:36:59,080 --> 00:36:59,680 Speaker 2: have a play here. 825 00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's just keep taking Unyan blin unders like the 826 00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:05,239 Speaker 1: last two and during the Bundesliga they've hit the over 827 00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:07,560 Speaker 1: in the ninety third minute both times. It's very funny, 828 00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:09,840 Speaker 1: but no, I mean the first match between them and 829 00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,520 Speaker 1: Unyan saying Guilosi out of Belgium, you know it was 830 00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:14,719 Speaker 1: a one nothing game. There was only one point three 831 00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:18,120 Speaker 1: goals expected goals created, and if you look at their group, 832 00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:21,600 Speaker 1: you know Unyan Berlin is one point ahead of Braga 833 00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,960 Speaker 1: and Guilosi's already won the group, so they have nothing 834 00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:27,719 Speaker 1: to play for, no real incentive in this type of match. 835 00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:30,440 Speaker 1: And Unjan Berlin is obviously one of these type of 836 00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:32,640 Speaker 1: teams that even if they go ahead one nothing, they're 837 00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:34,239 Speaker 1: gonna sit on this game. They're not going to just 838 00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:36,520 Speaker 1: keep going and trying to keep trying to keep winning 839 00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:38,520 Speaker 1: because they have to assume that Braga is obviously going 840 00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:41,920 Speaker 1: to beat Malmo. But every single match that Unyan Berlin 841 00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,759 Speaker 1: has played in the Europa League, it's under two and 842 00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:46,719 Speaker 1: a half expected goals have been created, so you have 843 00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:49,200 Speaker 1: two under two and a half sitting at minus one ten, 844 00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:51,640 Speaker 1: I simply think that it's just too good of a 845 00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:53,560 Speaker 1: price to pass up. I only have one point nine 846 00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:55,960 Speaker 1: goals projected for it, so I'm just gonna try to 847 00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:57,279 Speaker 1: take another Unyon Blinn under. 848 00:37:57,520 --> 00:37:59,680 Speaker 2: All right. With that, we can wrap up in move 849 00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:02,520 Speaker 2: to our favorite bets for this week's Champions League action. 850 00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:03,319 Speaker 2: I'll go first. 851 00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:04,200 Speaker 1: I like Tottenham. 852 00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,640 Speaker 2: I like Tottenham Hotspur plus one thirty on the road 853 00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:11,000 Speaker 2: at Marseille. As we often say with Tottenham, so much 854 00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:14,480 Speaker 2: of it comes down to stylistic and situational handicapping, and 855 00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:18,120 Speaker 2: this one just really plays into their strengths. Marseille need 856 00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,680 Speaker 2: to win, Tottenham do not. They could sit back and 857 00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:23,040 Speaker 2: they could just wait and wait and wait hit the counter. 858 00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:26,560 Speaker 2: Spurs are in wonky form and so I think you're 859 00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:28,719 Speaker 2: actually getting a little bit of a Bilow spot despite them, 860 00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:31,080 Speaker 2: you know, beating Bourne myth over the weekend. They needed 861 00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:32,960 Speaker 2: to come back in that one of course as well. 862 00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:35,880 Speaker 2: So really good spot for Tottenham here plus one thirty 863 00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:39,400 Speaker 2: on the road. Antonio Conte might not be on the sidelines, 864 00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,120 Speaker 2: but he's going to be there with us in spirit, 865 00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:42,120 Speaker 2: and so is Anthony. 866 00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:45,320 Speaker 1: That's right, I like Leverkusen Bruges over three and a 867 00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,560 Speaker 1: half goals at plus one thirty. This is going to 868 00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:50,160 Speaker 1: be just a complete back and forth game. Leverkusen obviously 869 00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:52,160 Speaker 1: has to go and try and win it as they're behind. 870 00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:53,520 Speaker 1: That's let he go in the group for the third 871 00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:57,080 Speaker 1: spot in a potential trip to the Europa League knockout stage. 872 00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:00,120 Speaker 1: Bruges after losing to Porto brings in a lot lot 873 00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:02,239 Speaker 1: of weird scenarios. They're one point ahead of them, so 874 00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:04,480 Speaker 1: they have to assume that Porto is going to beat 875 00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:06,719 Speaker 1: at Letteco, so they have to go for this match 876 00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:08,719 Speaker 1: as well. The last match to these two teams only 877 00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:10,759 Speaker 1: one point five expected goals were created, but there was 878 00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,239 Speaker 1: a lot of back and forth. Leverkusen had two goals 879 00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:15,640 Speaker 1: vart Off and ever since as Shabi Alonso has taken 880 00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,320 Speaker 1: over to Leverkusen, they've carried over two expected goals and 881 00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,440 Speaker 1: three of their five matches. Also, Patrick Schick has been 882 00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:23,200 Speaker 1: out for a few weeks. He's going to be back 883 00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,080 Speaker 1: as the main front man for Leverkusen in this match, 884 00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,520 Speaker 1: so I'm expecting a very very open match. So like 885 00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:30,920 Speaker 1: the price at plus one thirty on over three and 886 00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:31,760 Speaker 1: a half goals. 887 00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:37,560 Speaker 2: And that wraps up our last Champions League Group stage preview. 888 00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:40,880 Speaker 2: We will be back on Thursday morning to talk about 889 00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,239 Speaker 2: the Premier League and make sure to follow the Wonder 890 00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:46,040 Speaker 2: Goal podcast on the Action Network to follow our best 891 00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:49,759 Speaker 2: bets throughout the season and get ready for the World Cup. 892 00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:51,880 Speaker 2: We're going to have a ton a ton of content 893 00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:54,640 Speaker 2: coming your way on the podcast, on Action network dot 894 00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:57,520 Speaker 2: com all over the damn place, so keep an eye 895 00:39:57,520 --> 00:39:59,880 Speaker 2: out there and remember to get those Euroguay bets in 896 00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:05,000 Speaker 2: before the tournament starts. For b J Cunningham, for Anthony Dubundo, 897 00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:07,360 Speaker 2: I'm Michael Lebuff wishing you the best of luck with 898 00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:09,480 Speaker 2: all your best on Tuesday and Wednesday. 899 00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:10,360 Speaker 1: M