WEBVTT - The UK, The BOJ, ETFs, and Nickel (Podcast) 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.520 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 0:00:15.560 --> 0:00:18.439 called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:22.080 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. I want to switch 0:00:22.120 --> 0:00:25.880 the conversation though, over to uh, fixed income kind of 0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:31.200 currencies economists sort of thing. I'm sure pretty has chopping 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:33.040 at the bit to talk about the Bank of Japan, 0:00:33.080 --> 0:00:36.120 because if anybody cares about the Bank of Japan, it 0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:39.960 is pretty good. It's important, I know, very important. Huge. 0:00:40.159 --> 0:00:43.320 Jennifer Lee Joins, a senior economist managing director over at 0:00:43.360 --> 0:00:47.479 BEMO Capital Markets, and Jennifer, Um, you know, I I 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:51.440 sort of realized the importance this morning when Valerie Title 0:00:51.520 --> 0:00:54.480 in London said, look, the b o J is the 0:00:54.560 --> 0:00:59.520 only anchor among major central banks holding rates lower, like 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:03.000 they're the only ones with nerve or ZERP right now, 0:01:03.200 --> 0:01:07.040 and uh, if they let that go, it's like off 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:10.800 to the races, do you agree? Um, they've already started 0:01:10.840 --> 0:01:13.319 letting it go in some ways, but you know, just 0:01:13.560 --> 0:01:16.000 a little bit. And and yes, in many ways it 0:01:16.040 --> 0:01:18.160 is going to be off to the racist um. You know, 0:01:18.200 --> 0:01:19.720 I remember a time when you know, it was like 0:01:19.720 --> 0:01:22.200 snooze fest over at the Bigger Japan because they were 0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:24.800 doing nothing forever. And finally, you know, back in December 0:01:24.840 --> 0:01:27.959 they let the creating range around the tenure ye old 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:30.440 wide in a bit um. But now it looks like 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:32.800 with this new and I actually don't not very familiar 0:01:32.840 --> 0:01:36.839 with this new potential incoming governor, but it sounds like he's, 0:01:36.880 --> 0:01:38.720 you know, his comments this morning sounds like it's going 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:41.200 to be you know, business as usual at the Big 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:44.039 Japan when he takes over. So that's probably why we 0:01:44.080 --> 0:01:46.839 saw some some some gift back, I guess in the ends, 0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:50.160 in the end this morning. So so far it sounds 0:01:50.200 --> 0:01:52.080 like that it might be again just you know, keep 0:01:52.160 --> 0:01:55.440 going on with very easy monetary policy, so we don't 0:01:55.440 --> 0:01:58.480 have to worry Jeff yet, Oh, Jen, talk to us 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:02.840 a little bit about the actionable differences in that policy. 0:02:02.960 --> 0:02:05.840 What does going from dovish to hawkish actually look like 0:02:06.320 --> 0:02:09.240 for the b o J that's kind of been stuck 0:02:09.360 --> 0:02:14.400 for what ten twelve years minimum? Yes, for well, I've 0:02:14.400 --> 0:02:17.399 been exaggerating to say, well forever um but being going 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:20.520 from you know, some super dubbish to slightly less subbish 0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:23.480 again by letting that training range widen a little bit 0:02:23.720 --> 0:02:27.040 last month, but you know, going I guess officially hawkish 0:02:27.080 --> 0:02:29.720 would be actually raising their interest rates, which you know, 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:32.720 I think possibly might happen in April. I actually thought 0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:34.960 was something that's gonna happen in a at the last meeting, 0:02:35.000 --> 0:02:37.160 but you know, it may in March. It's it's still 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:39.560 you know, it's gonna be the end of their their 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:41.679 fiscal years, so there's always walking this's going on in 0:02:41.720 --> 0:02:43.079 financial market. So I don't know what they want a 0:02:43.160 --> 0:02:45.440 chance doing anything, But of course if the governor or 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:47.079 Corona wants to go off with a bang, and that's 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:48.919 the way to do it. So I think April is 0:02:48.919 --> 0:02:51.480 probably a more likely time to start tweaking it. But 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:54.280 I guess if they don't make any actual like giving 0:02:54.320 --> 0:02:57.760 any changes in their actions, just changing the conversation or 0:02:58.040 --> 0:03:00.680 making their tone of their discussions a bit more hawkish 0:03:00.720 --> 0:03:02.320 will also do the job a little bit as well. 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:06.880 Fascinating stuff, yeah, sure, But to me the question is 0:03:06.919 --> 0:03:08.720 still for the b O J are we still viewing 0:03:08.720 --> 0:03:11.680 this as kind of its own I mean, as Matt said, like, 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:13.880 is this kind of its own thing that doesn't necessarily 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:16.399 apply to the rest of the world At a time 0:03:16.400 --> 0:03:19.040 when the ECB and the BOW remains uber hawkish and 0:03:19.120 --> 0:03:21.600 arguably the FED as well, does the B O J 0:03:21.840 --> 0:03:25.720 matter when the bigger central banks have kind of decided 0:03:25.760 --> 0:03:28.120 the path that, especially for investors who are focused on 0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:30.480 the US, or for investors who are focused on Canada, 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:33.200 or even investors focused on does it really matter that much? 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:35.680 I still you know, I I have a bove leaned 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:37.600 toward yes, and it still matters because it's still heard 0:03:37.600 --> 0:03:39.080 of the G seven, it's still part of the G tenth, 0:03:39.160 --> 0:03:41.800 So it does have a bearing, even though again you know, 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:44.040 as we all know, they've they've been doing nothing and 0:03:44.080 --> 0:03:47.640 while everyone was has been uh husband has been tightening. 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:49.560 And now it looks like it's it's kind of interesting case. 0:03:49.560 --> 0:03:51.760 Now we've got the FED potentially coming to the end 0:03:51.760 --> 0:03:54.360 of the eating eating cycle to my boys to men 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:56.520 there um, and the end of course, you know, make 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:58.000 a candle, looks like they are going to be on 0:03:58.080 --> 0:04:00.720 hold for for some time um. And then of course 0:04:00.720 --> 0:04:02.200 the e c B is going the other direction, and 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:04.520 the big of England is sort of you know, still tightening. 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:07.600 So you know, the Big Japan is almost going to 0:04:07.640 --> 0:04:09.320 go in to wake or break this uh this this 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:12.680 this tipe breaker in many ways. But again still it's 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:15.080 just it broadens the overall picture of you know the 0:04:15.080 --> 0:04:18.039 fact that central banks are still in some sort of 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:20.280 a tightening mode, even the Big Japan, and not as 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:22.760 tight as it once was, but still you know, inching 0:04:22.760 --> 0:04:24.880 a little bit more towards that towards that line. By 0:04:24.880 --> 0:04:28.320 the way, um Ed Harrison from Bloomberg in Washington, d C. 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:32.000 Writes that some trader on Tuesday build up an eighteen 0:04:32.040 --> 0:04:35.920 million dollar position on six percent FED funds rate by September. 0:04:36.640 --> 0:04:39.760 Um it's obviously a big or a deeply out of 0:04:39.760 --> 0:04:44.800 the money, uh position, But people are guarding against that possibility. 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:46.960 What are the chances that we get up over five 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:49.920 and a quarter over five and a half per Oh wow? 0:04:50.000 --> 0:04:51.800 So you know, I'm gonna be very humble and say, 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:53.400 you know, we we've you know, over the past couple 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:55.400 of years, we've been nudging our fed pigs right higher, 0:04:55.440 --> 0:04:57.599 and uh, you know, now we're looking for the final 0:04:57.640 --> 0:05:00.720 move to be in May I mean, obviously anything as possible. 0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:03.080 But at this point, and we've already seen the peak 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:05.440 in inflation, we're starting to see it coming down. Maybe 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:08.160 not as as as steadily and as as much as 0:05:08.440 --> 0:05:10.200 the SET is still wanting to but you know, we've 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:12.080 already moved down to the twenty five dayses point r 0:05:12.279 --> 0:05:15.440 right moves. It would have to do be something pretty dramatic, 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:22.000 um pre substantial, well you know what I mean, possibly, 0:05:22.040 --> 0:05:23.440 if you can gonna do see that, yes, but I 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:25.080 I don't think that's going to be the case. I 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:26.400 think that might be a bit of an l a liar. 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:28.960 On Tuesday, as pretty points out, c p I is 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:34.920 coming in, we're expecting six what have it's seven? Oh again, 0:05:34.920 --> 0:05:36.440 it's gonna you know, it's gonna take more than a month. 0:05:36.880 --> 0:05:38.240 It's gonna have to take more. And then plus we've 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:39.840 got these new seasonals, right, so I think it's gonna 0:05:39.839 --> 0:05:41.599 take more of them up. Just like when we saw 0:05:41.800 --> 0:05:45.080 inflation decline in UH over the summer, and everyone jumped 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:47.600 on the fact that the potential for the set to 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:49.760 start turning. You know, they said they needed more than 0:05:49.800 --> 0:05:51.680 one month, and you know, now they've had more than 0:05:51.720 --> 0:05:53.080 the month just like if you go to the other direction, 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:55.040 if you see a big jump in CPI, you're gonna 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:57.080 need more than just one month of a big jump 0:05:57.080 --> 0:06:00.320 in CPI for the set to change its tune. All right, Ennifer, 0:06:00.320 --> 0:06:03.359 thanks so much for joining us. Pleasure as always talked 0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:06.680 to you. Grateful for your insight. Jennifer Lee Uh there 0:06:06.680 --> 0:06:09.960 over from BEMO, where she is a senior economist and 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:18.560 Managing Director BMO Capital Markets, Bank of Montreal. I am 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:21.880 psyched to get over to Anika Gupta right now. She 0:06:22.040 --> 0:06:26.320 covers equities and commodities as director of Macroeconomic Research for 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:30.160 Wisdom Tree and Uh On a day when Anika, we 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:33.640 got a couple of I think pretty interesting calls. Um. 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:36.280 Michael Hartnett over at ba A says, as soon as 0:06:36.279 --> 0:06:40.840 the SMP gets forty five, says Cell Cell, Cell, don't 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:44.520 believe this rally. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank says the SMP is 0:06:44.520 --> 0:06:46.560 gonna go to forty five by the end of the 0:06:46.640 --> 0:06:48.520 year if there was a recession, and if there's a 0:06:48.560 --> 0:06:54.240 soft landing, we're looking at five thousand. What do you think, well, Um, 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:57.640 I agree with the former, Matt. You know we've been 0:06:57.680 --> 0:07:02.039 plotting the SMP versus the FED balance sheet. Take away 0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:05.400 the the the tightening that we've seen on the balance 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:08.880 sheet and repurchase agreements, and it it is a clear 0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:10.960 cell signal at this point in time, and I think 0:07:10.960 --> 0:07:13.880 that's what's being reflected by the market. Um. You know, 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:18.160 we've had this um speculative frenzy in the first first 0:07:18.240 --> 0:07:22.000 month of this year, and you know, we kept warning 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:25.520 our clients that look, come that pivotal week where we 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:27.880 have these central bank meetings, you are going to see 0:07:27.880 --> 0:07:32.800 that you know, that that renewed concern actually being echoed 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:36.360 in the markets. And we've we've rightly seen that happened. UM. 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:40.360 I think what what remains for us as a key 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:43.480 focus is that, you know, the employment data still remains 0:07:43.560 --> 0:07:46.800 very strong. And as long as that is the case, UM, 0:07:46.840 --> 0:07:49.400 you know, the US is the U S economy is 0:07:49.480 --> 0:07:53.640 essentially trying to trying to show us that you know, 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:57.240 it's it is pointing to economic resilience and if that is, 0:07:57.640 --> 0:07:59.720 if that is going to continue, then the Fed will 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:05.400 need to continue keeping rates in restricted territory. So UM, 0:08:05.440 --> 0:08:07.840 I think that's what's a key on our minds at 0:08:07.840 --> 0:08:11.600 this point in time. And obviously retail sales is going 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:15.000 to be the big swing factor because you know, we 0:08:15.080 --> 0:08:17.880 are seeing one of your source of strength coming in 0:08:17.960 --> 0:08:20.400 from autos. We've you know, where we can see vehicles 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:26.160 sales have rebounded um versus the December figure, so you 0:08:26.160 --> 0:08:28.160 know that. I think that's going to be really interesting 0:08:28.760 --> 0:08:31.040 to watch out for. Hey, Matt, I'm looking at her 0:08:31.040 --> 0:08:33.840 bio here. She got a bachelor's in math from St. 0:08:33.840 --> 0:08:37.360 Stephen College in New Delhi. And I think my dad 0:08:37.400 --> 0:08:40.960 went to school as well. Oh, that's amazing that we 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:43.720 have the same last name, we have the same sort 0:08:43.760 --> 0:08:47.360 of connection to this college. So unlikely that you're related. 0:08:47.559 --> 0:08:50.000 I don't think we're related. But and then she got 0:08:50.200 --> 0:08:55.000 she got the masters in mathematics or maths as they say, 0:08:55.080 --> 0:09:01.560 from a small known college in England called Oxford. All right, 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:04.600 so it's clearly she knows her stuff. Let's talk about 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:07.320 the pricing of it all, because I really, I mean, look, 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:09.760 you got your bachelor's and masters and math, so explain 0:09:09.800 --> 0:09:12.280 the math here when it comes to what we're looking 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:15.760 at for the commodity market, you're looking at rent crewed 0:09:15.800 --> 0:09:20.040 an eighty five handle at the moment. But I'm concerned 0:09:20.040 --> 0:09:23.400 about how you quantify this Chinese reopening, which seems to 0:09:23.480 --> 0:09:29.480 be the real tailwind for commodities right now. You're absolutely right. 0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:31.959 I think the way we were looking at commodities, we 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:37.200 try to split up the commodities within their four subsectors. 0:09:37.240 --> 0:09:40.920 And I think from the Chinese reopening theme coming up, 0:09:41.040 --> 0:09:44.400 you know, taking into effect, we believe energy stands to 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:48.079 benefit more than the industrial metal space. And the reason 0:09:48.120 --> 0:09:50.880 for that is UM. You know, there's a clear distinction 0:09:50.920 --> 0:09:54.599 that China is is UH like as a message that 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:57.240 they're sending out in terms of how they plan to 0:09:57.280 --> 0:10:00.880 prop up the property sector. It isn't a full scale 0:10:01.520 --> 0:10:05.720 UH initiative to just prop up the entire property sector. 0:10:05.760 --> 0:10:09.600 They are distinguishing between UH you know, developers that that 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:14.560 have a better buffer buffer of UH and a better 0:10:14.600 --> 0:10:17.640 quality of assets compared to the other, so that they're 0:10:17.640 --> 0:10:20.520 clearly distinguishing one from the other. So I think we're 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:24.560 going to have a moderate rebound in the property sector. 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:27.160 I think they're trying. What China is also trying to do, 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:30.480 is they're trying to boost their energy sector as well, 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:32.880 because they want they want they don't want to find 0:10:32.920 --> 0:10:36.440 themselves as vulnerable as you have found themselves in two 0:10:36.880 --> 0:10:38.800 so I think these two sectors are going to get 0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:42.560 uh you know, are going to be helped and aided 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:45.280 by the Chinese government or into which we we do 0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:49.160 believe that UM energy stands to benefit as a subsector 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:53.000 within commodities a lot more than the industrial metal space. 0:10:53.520 --> 0:10:55.800 Where we believe industrial metals are really going to get 0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:58.760 their boost from is from uh you know, the energy 0:10:58.760 --> 0:11:01.720 transition that is in full swing at this Garrent junc show. 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:05.200 By the way, UM I was talking earlier about this 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:11.040 commodity story that Bloomberg put out overnight, a trader traffic EURL, 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:15.320 a British trading group, has discovered that more than five 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:18.440 hundred million dollars worth of uh nicol it's paid for, 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:22.400 actually five seventy seven million dollars is fake as a 0:11:22.440 --> 0:11:25.880 result of well it alleges as a result of a 0:11:25.920 --> 0:11:28.600 fraud from an Indian company. This coming right after a 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:33.040 Donni UM, what do you think about this rapid turn 0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:37.400 in UM the fortunes of you know, the Indian reputation, 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:41.679 because before the Hindenburg report, like every every week we 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:44.160 were saying news stories about how India was the new 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:46.840 place to invest and it was gonna overtake China and 0:11:47.520 --> 0:11:50.240 population growth and it has a much better demographic. And 0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:53.400 it was even Matt Winkler, our editor in chief emeritus, wrote, 0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:55.720 you know, a love letter to India. So what are 0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:59.640 we to make of this rapid turn of events. Well, 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:02.200 I think it is a sign of caution for the 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:05.320 Indian economy because clearly, you know, they were the most 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:09.840 resilient economy in two and surprised you know, the vast 0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:13.160 majority of investors. But I think what we do need 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:15.600 to keep in mind is they've been through so many 0:12:15.640 --> 0:12:18.480 headwinds over the past few years. You know, be at 0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:22.200 the COVID pandemic um that that's carred the economy quite 0:12:22.200 --> 0:12:27.000 a lot. We've also had the denomination um, you know, 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:30.080 the change and the currency that that caused quite a 0:12:30.080 --> 0:12:34.520 bit of an overhaul within the economy. UM. And I 0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:37.080 think what we do need to keep in mind is 0:12:37.800 --> 0:12:41.679 those very tailors that you did mention they do still exist. 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:46.560 But clearly what Hindburg is trying to site, is trying 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:50.160 to bring out is you know there is there is clearly, um, 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:53.080 you know, something going on within the Adani group that 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:56.440 investors should be aware of. UM. But I don't think 0:12:56.559 --> 0:13:00.640 it will be real India's growth story. But because I 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:04.679 think obviously with China being locked down, that was a 0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:07.640 very important tailwind for India that they that they actually 0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:11.080 benefited from, you know, be it Apple moving its supply chain, 0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:14.640 um uh you know, the I G sector benefiting a 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:18.040 lot more from uh, from from from the US, which 0:13:18.360 --> 0:13:21.079 which did quite well. So I think those have been 0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:23.840 important tail winds for the Indian economy. And obviously they 0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:26.319 have one of the most favorable demographics in the world, 0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:28.280 and this comes a bit time when you know, you 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:33.120 have aging demographics globally, can't fight demographics. Can if they've 0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:36.080 got if they've got this huge new generation is bigger 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:40.559 than the old generation, that's just got to turn out well, absolutely, 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:43.800 and they have this strong consumption uh you know, that 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:47.360 is helping drive demand and I think that's really important. 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:49.840 And even if you just reflect on the recent budget 0:13:49.840 --> 0:13:52.560 that is being launched, I think that was another tailwind 0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:55.600 where you know, the government is trying to be a 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:59.040 bit more disciplined in terms of keeping uh you know, 0:13:59.080 --> 0:14:01.680 the deficit of the entage to the GDP in line. 0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:05.080 They're also benefiting from much higher tax collection, so that's 0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:08.520 really benefiting uh, you know, government capex. So I think 0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:11.240 from that point of view, you know, those state table 0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:14.480 wins are still going to aid the economy. But I 0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:17.520 think from a sentiment perspective, we are going to see 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:20.440 a bit of a blip, you know, towards Indian equities 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:24.280 until we see that does settle. We'll see if that happens, Anika. 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:27.000 We have to kind of harp on the Indians on 0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:31.359 the show right now. I recently educated Matt Miller on Bollywood, 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:36.280 a very brief education, and I showed him the wedding 0:14:36.280 --> 0:14:41.240 photos uh Kr Advani and said, Molota, have you seen him? 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:44.840 I did? I did that? They have. They put out 0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:47.040 a video overnight as well, which I'll show you in 0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:52.360 the break. It is stunning. What did you make of Ana? Well? 0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:55.080 I I just barely glanced on the picture. I think 0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:58.000 the couple looked lovely. Um. Indian weddings are known to 0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:03.640 be extravagant, long affairs that the West are not very 0:15:04.000 --> 0:15:07.520 used to. Um So I think, yeah, I wouldn't. I 0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:09.840 wouldn't spend too much of my time on it. But 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:13.160 you know that's another sign of how what how do 0:15:15.320 --> 0:15:17.480 you have to in some senses right, I mean the 0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:21.320 gold purchasing power there and the will to buy gold 0:15:21.480 --> 0:15:26.600 actually drives markets. It does, it definitely does. Um. Yeah, 0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:30.000 and it's it's obviously, you know, Indians identified with a 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:34.240 source of like obviously being a physical asset, a big 0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:38.040 sign of wealth, and you know it has been increasing 0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:41.320 over the past year. It really has. Also, for what 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:44.120 it's worth, Matt has been saying for like a year 0:15:44.160 --> 0:15:46.440 now that he's going to affreciate my wedding one day, 0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:49.320 which she has some experience an incredible efficient. I've done 0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:51.720 it a few times. Yeah, so, but I'm not sure 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:54.400 if I could. The Indian weddings tend to last longer 0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:57.320 than I think I could. Party, right, it's exactly to 0:15:57.600 --> 0:16:00.400 be too much for you. I can help. I'll do 0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:01.960 one or two days of it, you know, and then 0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:04.640 the elephants will carry me out. Get it together. You 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:06.560 gotta you gotta push through it. I just want to 0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:10.080 get Hannah, the Hannah painted on me that too. That's 0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:12.800 gonna last piece. A week, that's gonna last you. I'm 0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:15.280 ready for a week. He's ready for like I could 0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:17.240 use I could use a week actually, And Nica thanks 0:16:17.280 --> 0:16:22.240 so much for joining us there. She's director of macroeconomic research. 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:28.080 Equities and commodities over wisdom treat a little bit of 0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:30.680 a turnaround here if John says the Dow Jones Industrial 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:33.920 Average rising as the SMP is unchanged, so maybe we 0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:36.000 will get a little bit of a rally into the 0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:38.520 end of the day today. Still, it's gonna take a 0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:40.720 lot to bring the nastact back. Yeah, it really is. 0:16:40.720 --> 0:16:42.800 You're seeing the down about five tons of one percent 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:46.320 yield higher. I wonder if there's a relationship. It doesn't 0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:50.320 really look like there is, but um yeah, tech underperforming today, 0:16:50.400 --> 0:16:53.760 all right. One of the important pieces of news we got, 0:16:53.800 --> 0:16:57.360 I think for the market this morning was on China's 0:16:57.400 --> 0:17:01.320 consumer inflation accelerating last month as the company reopened and 0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:05.480 the lunar New Year holiday spur demand. But the games 0:17:05.520 --> 0:17:08.520 were pretty small. In fact, the c p I, the 0:17:08.600 --> 0:17:12.119 Chinese Consumer Price Index, was up two point one percent, 0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:15.960 which you know, for for China is not a huge jump, 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:19.280 and the p p I actually um drops zero point 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:22.040 eight percent. Let's bring in a China expert right now 0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:24.639 to help us figure out what's going on with this 0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:27.400 reopening and what kind of effect it's really gonna have. 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:31.359 Hans Doubt joins us. He is the CEO of the 0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:35.879 Madison Mitchell Group and uh sorry, Mitchell Madison Group, and 0:17:36.160 --> 0:17:40.479 he joins us from Jackson, Wyoming. It's a place I 0:17:40.480 --> 0:17:43.000 always love to be, Hans. I'm always so jealous when 0:17:43.040 --> 0:17:46.800 I say that, but um, thank thanks for joining us. 0:17:46.840 --> 0:17:49.520 Give us your take on the Chinese situation. We're starting 0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:51.560 to get more and more data points coming out to 0:17:51.640 --> 0:17:54.359 help well, hopefully to help answer the question is the 0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:57.600 reopening gonna be good for you know, an engine of 0:17:57.600 --> 0:17:59.920 global growth. But I'm not sure if we're really getting 0:17:59.920 --> 0:18:04.000 the answer yet. Yeah, it's it's always a hard picture there, right, 0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:06.040 because you can't always trust the data. But I think 0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:08.720 overall it's a positive story. Right. We talked a lot 0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:12.320 about China, uh and and it's always been really concerning 0:18:12.480 --> 0:18:16.879 supply chain, and nobody, you know, everybody expected that this 0:18:17.200 --> 0:18:21.200 this COVID spreading COVID you know, so quickly in China, 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:23.800 especially around the lunar New Year, would would be a 0:18:23.800 --> 0:18:26.560 major catastrophe. And it wasn't right, it really wasn't. It 0:18:26.840 --> 0:18:29.440 just simply inspected the whole country and then now they're 0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:31.800 going back to work. And if you you want to 0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:33.679 think about it, this way if they really kind of 0:18:33.880 --> 0:18:36.040 you know, flattened the curve on the back of the 0:18:36.040 --> 0:18:38.120 whole world, right, which is sort of what they did, 0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:40.639 and you have to admit that it was a success. Right. 0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:43.440 So I think China is going back to work. China 0:18:43.520 --> 0:18:47.280 capacity in dost the capacity is going up just as 0:18:47.440 --> 0:18:50.040 the Western demand is going down a bit. And you're right, 0:18:50.160 --> 0:18:52.479 you see this in the pp I a little bit already, 0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:54.960 and I think it's going to be a very positive 0:18:54.960 --> 0:18:59.359 effect on inflation, at least as far as treatable goods 0:18:59.359 --> 0:19:02.080 DOT concerned. Right, that's that's you will see this everywhere, 0:19:02.080 --> 0:19:05.560 and I think that's overall a good thing. Um. On 0:19:05.600 --> 0:19:08.320 the other side, you have the political implications, right, So 0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:10.520 I was you know, you have the Chinese balloon, You 0:19:10.600 --> 0:19:13.399 got Biden giving his speech. There's a lot of you know, 0:19:13.480 --> 0:19:18.159 sort of negative sentiment towards China and the desire to continue, 0:19:18.400 --> 0:19:21.280 you know, the great decoupling. And even worse than that, 0:19:21.640 --> 0:19:24.000 you had Biden saying nobody would want to be she 0:19:24.240 --> 0:19:26.800 right now he's facing a ton of problems. I thought 0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:31.560 it was almost insulting, um, And it seems like the 0:19:31.640 --> 0:19:35.240 Chinese took it that way as well. Yeah, but this 0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:37.520 is all nice and fine. But at the same time, 0:19:37.560 --> 0:19:39.720 we had a record trade between the US and China 0:19:39.800 --> 0:19:42.520 last year, right, So you guys had this really nice 0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:45.960 headline a couple of days ago saying globalization finds a way. 0:19:46.000 --> 0:19:48.440 And I think that's true, right, It's not so much 0:19:48.480 --> 0:19:51.479 about you know, beating up China. Of course, you know, 0:19:51.520 --> 0:19:54.240 the US has to do it on the critical goods obviously, 0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:56.280 on military things and stuff like that. And I think 0:19:56.640 --> 0:20:00.680 as we're disassembling the balloon, finding more you know, American 0:20:00.760 --> 0:20:03.400 and Sony parts in there, it's going to be very interesting. 0:20:03.760 --> 0:20:06.320 But I think the bottom line is that corporation simply 0:20:06.359 --> 0:20:10.520 have to diversify globally. The globe is bigger than just China. 0:20:10.640 --> 0:20:14.639 But can we agree that there's something we're not all 0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:16.960 of us are not being told about the balloon. I mean, 0:20:17.000 --> 0:20:20.240 it just does not add up if it's really some 0:20:20.359 --> 0:20:25.880 big spy balloon. I cannot buy any of the million 0:20:25.960 --> 0:20:28.359 different reasons I've been given for why they didn't shoot 0:20:28.359 --> 0:20:31.359 it down right when it entered you know, US airspace 0:20:31.400 --> 0:20:34.320 over Montana. I mean, you live out there. There are 0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:38.200 not a lot of people around, so they wanted to 0:20:38.240 --> 0:20:42.040 shoot it down yes, they should have. But so I 0:20:42.080 --> 0:20:44.200 don't think that we're getting the full story on that. 0:20:44.280 --> 0:20:48.399 I'm not saying there's some big conspiracies, deep state theory, 0:20:48.440 --> 0:20:51.399 but something we're not being told. Maybe I don't know why, 0:20:51.440 --> 0:20:54.880 but um, it just strikes me as an odd time 0:20:54.920 --> 0:20:58.840 to be then insulting to the Chinese leader when we 0:20:58.880 --> 0:21:02.280 had a US Air Force general saying, prepare for war. 0:21:02.440 --> 0:21:06.200 It's gonna happen. By even if we are trading a lot, 0:21:06.240 --> 0:21:08.960 we could get into a pretty serious military scuffle with 0:21:09.040 --> 0:21:15.159 a big army. Absolutely, yeah, gotta be careful. Well, all right, 0:21:15.200 --> 0:21:17.680 we'll walk us through. Then back to China. The COVID 0:21:17.720 --> 0:21:19.960