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Speaker 1: Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane

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Speaker 1: jay Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Got

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Speaker 1: an important guesting It's starting with folks, just to say

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Speaker 1: that John and I will be here through Thursday. We

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Speaker 1: take the Gulf Stream back Thursday night the Red Eye.

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Speaker 1: UH to really get back John for Jobs Day in America,

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Speaker 1: which really goes to the synthesis of market house adjustment

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Speaker 1: over the weekend, a lot of houses saying not so

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Speaker 1: much we were wrong, here's a new view, but just

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Speaker 1: saying we got to catch up with all the events

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Speaker 1: market to market to some degree. Let's bring him off

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Speaker 1: in both shall we Bokley's head of effect strategy. It

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Speaker 1: feels like that Marvin it was already in the price

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Speaker 1: a market looking for two rate cuts. Then the likes

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Speaker 1: of Barclays come out and say, yes, that's probably what

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Speaker 1: we're gonna get. JP Morgan calling for the same walk

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Speaker 1: me through why two cuts this year from the federal

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Speaker 1: Reserve makes sense with unemployment South of four percent and

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Speaker 1: GDP in and around two three percentage points. Well, to

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Speaker 1: be fair and Jonathan, markets had a pretty big repricing

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Speaker 1: over the weekend as well. I mean front end of

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Speaker 1: FED funds moved seventeen points. We're now pricing in sixty

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Speaker 1: three basis points by December. That's amazing, Um and most

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Speaker 1: a big chunk of that just came over the weekend. Now,

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Speaker 1: where where does this come from? I think the shock

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Speaker 1: is that a lot of people had believed through most

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Speaker 1: of this year that the president would be swayed by markets,

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Speaker 1: uh and um would not push ahead with an aggressive

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Speaker 1: trade agenda. Um. That was the hope that they kept

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Speaker 1: clinging to throughout the China negotiations. When at the end

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Speaker 1: of last week he seemed to open up front again

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Speaker 1: end Mexico, Europe, India, and reportedly almost Australia. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: question question that one. But uh, when you see all

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Speaker 1: of that at once, all of a sudden, everybody has

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Speaker 1: to rethink, oh my gosh, this guy might be serious

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Speaker 1: here and what are going to be the growth impact.

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Speaker 1: Precisely to your point, Jonathan, growth in the US looks

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Speaker 1: really good right now, and you've got a lot of

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Speaker 1: ongoing momentum. But when you have that many different things

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Speaker 1: going on and potential serious feedback from equity markets to

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Speaker 1: US households, does that start to have an impact. So

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Speaker 1: often we've got a big week ahead, we've got an

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Speaker 1: ECB decision, Central Bank decisions from my believe, Australia and

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Speaker 1: India litted in somewhere between, then payrolls Friday too. For me, actually,

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Speaker 1: one of the most important data points of the week

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Speaker 1: is the I s m at in about three hours

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Speaker 1: time for the United States, because just two weeks ago

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Speaker 1: there was a really soft p M I read in

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Speaker 1: America and it just started to feed a little bit

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Speaker 1: of anxiety around the growth story in the United States.

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Speaker 1: How important is that I s M read for you

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Speaker 1: and a few as time ofvin Well, I'd split that

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Speaker 1: two ways. There's the market reaction, which I think to

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Speaker 1: your point, Jonathan, uh, you had a very strong market

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Speaker 1: reaction a few weeks ago. I think you'll get the

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Speaker 1: same thing here if you had a big negative surprise here.

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Speaker 1: But remember, the survey data are not actually uh that

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Speaker 1: useful at forecasting the economy. What will be more, much

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Speaker 1: more important is what's going on with continued um strength

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Speaker 1: in household income growth. So that's where I'm gonna look

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Speaker 1: towards the end of the week, towards payroll. Okay, that's economics.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk for our global Wall Street audience here.

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Speaker 1: What time is it, John in New York? At seven

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Speaker 1: o'clock in New York, they're getting ready for a Monday?

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Speaker 1: And on a volatility basis, that jump on a standard

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Speaker 1: deviation basis, we're not the crisis, We're not to panic.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, we're getting there quickly. It's two standard deviations

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Speaker 1: is two point four? Some indicators are even three ish

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Speaker 1: standard deviations. What is the immediacy of it's Monday? In

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Speaker 1: the move we've seen over the last two weeks, Tom,

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Speaker 1: I think it really goes back to that point that

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Speaker 1: there is a come up in a cross markets UH,

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Speaker 1: that there are assumptions that the president would be driven

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Speaker 1: by markets may not be correct. And when you have

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Speaker 1: a you know, sudden cathartic UH shift in the market narrative,

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Speaker 1: which is what seems to have happened here, you can

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Speaker 1: get these types of very abrupt moves in markets. So

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Speaker 1: let's get to the FX code last year. Ultimately, what

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Speaker 1: this stress abroad? Men was a strong a dollar. Is

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Speaker 1: it the same story in nineteen for you, Marvin, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: although I think the pattern UH is a bit more different,

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Speaker 1: uh in the sense that, um, you know, last year

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Speaker 1: we had a effective range trade in G ten UH

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Speaker 1: and weakening of emerging markets, both which, by the way,

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Speaker 1: we forecast. Um, just throw that, just throw worry. We'll

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Speaker 1: call you when you're wrong as well. Yeah, exactly, Um,

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Speaker 1: but now we're getting to a much more aggressive, potential

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Speaker 1: negative growth environment. Now where are the places in the

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Speaker 1: world that have not been able to generate their own

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Speaker 1: domestic growth. It's been Europe and it's been emerging market,

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Speaker 1: So I think much more significant potential downside from there. Um.

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Speaker 1: But Japan actually as an alternate um safe haven. This

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Speaker 1: is one of the calls we've been making for a while.

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Speaker 1: There's actually the ends stands to benefit from these issues.

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Speaker 1: So walk me through your advice to people. This morning

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Speaker 1: we wake up futures gap blower once again. What I

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Speaker 1: see this morning, though it's a lot of old news

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Speaker 1: on repeat. Over the weekend, the presidents saying tariffs were beautiful,

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Speaker 1: China digging its heels in. We had a white paper

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Speaker 1: from the Chinese red the white paper. There's nothing really

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Speaker 1: anything new in there, nothing substantial, no real change from

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Speaker 1: the Chinese. The South Korean trade data ugly, but we

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Speaker 1: knew that a couple of weeks ago. Anyway, we had

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Speaker 1: a lead on the sports from South Korea and that's terrible.

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Speaker 1: The Chinese Kishan p M I pretty much unchanged from

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Speaker 1: the previous month. It's not great news, but it's not

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Speaker 1: incrementally new. Are we just like in a positive catalyst?

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Speaker 1: Is that what we need now just to kind of stabilize, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that's that's Uh, that's it. But we also

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Speaker 1: need to see real developments from here to you to

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Speaker 1: your point on the trade front. So we uh, we're

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Speaker 1: all awaiting the G twenty meetings see if anything shifts

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Speaker 1: come on. What's going to shift at the When is

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Speaker 1: the meeting at the end of the moment of the

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Speaker 1: month in Japan? Where are we going? We can go

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Speaker 1: if you like, I think we should. I mean, this

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Speaker 1: has already been a huge success. Well we should go.

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Speaker 1: I mean we're only eight minutes in, Tom let's not

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Speaker 1: define it as a success just yet. Minutes in, eight

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Speaker 1: minutes in. I was talking about Clarridges last night, Marvin

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Speaker 1: one Wston. Can you make foreign exchange calls here? Can

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Speaker 1: can you make a call given the swirl of data

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Speaker 1: and information or really on the sidelines? No, I think

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Speaker 1: I think you can the one place where it does

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Speaker 1: seem pretty much untradeable as sterling. But um, you know,

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Speaker 1: the dollar is ultimately the beneficiary of uh a uh

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Speaker 1: you know, volatile global environment. Because the US is a

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Speaker 1: store of value. You're gonna go dollar here right now,

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Speaker 1: even with lower rates. Marvin Bart, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: Great sabulous note he had. He had a whole note,

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Speaker 1: folks wrapped around a band. John, this is a band

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Speaker 1: before your time. Ri e m. He had a band,

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Speaker 1: He had a whole research note wrapper you do school,

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Speaker 1: Why don't you bring in professor? I think he was

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Speaker 1: lining you up with a three bedroom condo. We're in

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Speaker 1: the middle of negotiations. The former Italian Treasury chief economist.

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Speaker 1: Good morning to Lorenz. Great time morning. Let's talk about

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Speaker 1: the current situation in Italy. There is a Growth and

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Speaker 1: Stability Pact in the European Union where you must try

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Speaker 1: and have a budget deficit of it and around three

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Speaker 1: percent of GDP. The Italians and this Italian government would

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Speaker 1: like to have the purse strings loosened a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that's the right approach to the current situation? Um,

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Speaker 1: The short answer is no, because Italy has already a

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Speaker 1: very high debt to GDP ratio and certainly wasn't in

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Speaker 1: the fiscal situation would undermine confidence and would undermine the

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Speaker 1: interests of international investors for for Italian government bond paper.

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Speaker 1: Why is that's still the case to runzo? Why is

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Speaker 1: the debt to GDP ratio still so important when say,

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Speaker 1: for Japan it's north of two. Why is it still

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Speaker 1: so important to a country like Italy in Europe? Well,

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Speaker 1: in Japan as its own currency, and the central bank

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Speaker 1: is buying paper aggressively and uh and domestic investors are

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Speaker 1: not flying away, So that's a peculiar situation. I would

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Speaker 1: say Italy sebtly is not in that situation. I think

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Speaker 1: there is a risk of capital flight, and there is

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Speaker 1: a risk that the fiscal situation deteriorate without having any

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Speaker 1: central bank step in and and and and buying paper.

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Speaker 1: So I think that is the situation right now. Now.

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Speaker 1: I think that there is indeed a problem of aggregate demand,

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Speaker 1: so it would be desirable to have some leeway in

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Speaker 1: terms of public finances, but that only if the government

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Speaker 1: delivers on structural reforms that can enance the growth potential

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Speaker 1: over time. John, and I could speak to you for

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Speaker 1: an hour, and it would be an exceptionally important hour.

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Speaker 1: Let me begin with square one. Why should our US

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Speaker 1: listeners care this time about Italy? Italy has been a

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Speaker 1: mess for years, decades, but you and others say this

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Speaker 1: time is different. Why is now different? Well, I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: say that Italy has been in a mess for for years.

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Speaker 1: I mean Italy has struggled to address all these uh

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Speaker 1: you know, structural issues one by one, and admittedly very

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Speaker 1: slowly and with lack of conviction, so to speak. But

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Speaker 1: this time is different because we have a different government,

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Speaker 1: and we have a government that behaves like a maverick

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Speaker 1: and doesn't really recognize the rules and the constraints. The

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Speaker 1: government says, why are we being treated like this? France,

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Speaker 1: in many ways, in different ways, is in worse shape.

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Speaker 1: How do you analyze the relative mass of Italy versus

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Speaker 1: other nations, including France. Well, France has been in excessive

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Speaker 1: procedure for quite a long while. Keep in mind that

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Speaker 1: in the Eurozone, Spain is still in excessive deficity procedures

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Speaker 1: or UM Italy would not be alone, so to speak. Uh.

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Speaker 1: The issue is that you need to find ways to

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Speaker 1: negotiate and find ways to get flexibility from the fiscal constraints.

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Speaker 1: The previous government has tried, at least with difficulties, but

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Speaker 1: has has obtained a lot of flexibility for structural reforms

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Speaker 1: for investment spending. UM admittedly hasn't delivered much, but but

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Speaker 1: again at least has tried. This coming is not even trying.

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Speaker 1: That's the problem. Do you think that the idea of

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Speaker 1: counter cyclical fiscal policy will ever take out in Europe? Uh? Well,

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Speaker 1: the rules are designed to achieve counter cyclical fiscal policy,

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Speaker 1: but as a matter of fact, Europe and Italy especially

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Speaker 1: has has not really performed county cyclical fiscal policy has

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Speaker 1: actually gone through a tremendous tightening into thousand eleven two

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Speaker 1: thousand twelve, and then only very gradually has actually losing it.

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Speaker 1: Fiscal policy now that the situation is still fragile but

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Speaker 1: certainly better than in the past, is actually losing in policy. UM. Now,

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Speaker 1: you might argue that there would be a need to

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Speaker 1: lose in fiscal policy. Uh. I would say that again,

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Speaker 1: there is still an issue without going togate demand, but

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Speaker 1: you have to consider the constraints and you have to

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Speaker 1: consider that Italy faces on almost a daily basis financial markets.

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Speaker 1: It needs to finance a huge amount of debt and

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Speaker 1: it has to attract investors. Of this race is a

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Speaker 1: really important point. You still believe that read denomination risk

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Speaker 1: is on the table Italy and that if they don't

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Speaker 1: deal with it, they aren't able to do countercyclical fiscal

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Speaker 1: policy because of that. So how do we address read

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Speaker 1: denomination risk? Can we address it in Europe? Is it

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Speaker 1: just something that hangs over the continent for as long

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Speaker 1: as the Euro's earnest together. I think there is still

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Speaker 1: a default risk and read denomination risk, and that's why

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Speaker 1: Italian government bonds are still under pressure. I think in

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Speaker 1: order to address these is hues, uh, the the e

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Speaker 1: c B I mean came in and the the O

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Speaker 1: m T was very effective into tuson TWB to kind

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Speaker 1: of reduce the rednomination risk. But this time I think

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Speaker 1: that there is no intention in any way to go

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Speaker 1: along these lines. Where does this end up? And by

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Speaker 1: that I mean we've gone through an ECB experiment of

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Speaker 1: Deutzelberg triche and on. We're gonna get a new head

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Speaker 1: of the e c B, to be honest, or you

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Speaker 1: would be on a list to be considered as the

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Speaker 1: head of the e c B. Where do we end up?

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Speaker 1: Giving what John said about a broken fiscal system, a

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Speaker 1: one currency system, what's the escape velve to get us

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Speaker 1: the EU stability? I think Europe is still unfinished, okay,

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Speaker 1: and the US Zone framework, the governors framework, is still

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Speaker 1: un finished business. As you know, the so called banking

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Speaker 1: union is still is still halfway and uh and you

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Speaker 1: know that the governance is still not complete. Um. I

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Speaker 1: think the situation needs to be addressed. In my view,

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Speaker 1: for distenance, it would be absolutely essential to have a

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Speaker 1: safe acet um that would actually avoid the capital flights

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Speaker 1: within the Eurozone. And I think that would be a

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Speaker 1: way to address some of these issues. At least we

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Speaker 1: are out of time. Lorenzo con you thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for joining us our studios to thank you greatly,

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Speaker 1: greatly appreciate it. He is with the London School of Economics,

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Speaker 1: Lorenzo Continual. Please look for his writing over the coming week.

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Speaker 1: This is an immense joy. We never see her because

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Speaker 1: she is a White House correspondent of Immen's ability for Bloomberg,

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Speaker 1: her initial acclaim in credible work for the Tempera Tribune

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Speaker 1: years ago on a resurgent Republican Party in the South,

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Speaker 1: but much much more. She is Margaret tolliv who has

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Speaker 1: said with great respect about our American politics. She's of

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Speaker 1: course here with Bloomberg News. Is a president was incompetent,

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Speaker 1: you are the less likely you are likely to be

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Speaker 1: on the shot. See what you just said, Well, we

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Speaker 1: can just keep it coming, you know, we can just that.

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Speaker 1: We We never can get her. But Margaret Tullivan's studio

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Speaker 1: with us today and part of that with our team

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Speaker 1: coverage here, there will be those who will look at

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Speaker 1: the coming days of greeting by the Queen today and

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Speaker 1: that and you pick it up in Portsmouth and this

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Speaker 1: will be emotional as well. What will greet the President

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Speaker 1: of the United States and leaders around the world in

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Speaker 1: a very emotional Portsmouth. Yeah. Absolutely, what we're seeing, well,

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Speaker 1: we're going to see this week in Portsmouth and then

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Speaker 1: in Normandy is up close and personal a reminder of

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Speaker 1: the legacy see of the United States and the European

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Speaker 1: Allies UM since World War Two, and there are the

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Speaker 1: veterans from D Day are UM getting older and older.

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Speaker 1: This is probably the last of these official ceremonies. And

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Speaker 1: so much of the President's messaging since he took office

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Speaker 1: in seventeen has been UM to test the strength and

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Speaker 1: the resilience of that alliance, to question um the sort

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Speaker 1: of modern form of that alliance, and to go back

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Speaker 1: and forth between talking about how important the Allies are

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Speaker 1: and to prodding the Allies to pulling out of the

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Speaker 1: Paris Climate Deal, to talking about payments to NATO or

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Speaker 1: payments defense, you know, commitments toward NADO. This is not that,

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Speaker 1: this is something very different. The Washington Post with an

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Speaker 1: essay in the photograph of Ted Roosevelt and Quentin Roosevelt's

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Speaker 1: tombstones at Normandy. And then we move over to this

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Speaker 1: president and the uproar over the John McCain in Asia

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Speaker 1: as well. What is it exception right now of the

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Speaker 1: president that you see Margaret day to day with a pentagon.

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Speaker 1: The President has been a great defender of defense budgets,

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Speaker 1: talked about the importance of the military uh in in

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Speaker 1: his rhetoric when he addresses troops or veterans or anyone

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Speaker 1: in the military talks about how he loves the military

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Speaker 1: more than the last president does. And yeah, well he's

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Speaker 1: he's toned off on these other issues. And John McCain

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Speaker 1: is a revered uh, a figure in an American military

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Speaker 1: of course. Well, yes that that the the U. S. S.

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Speaker 1: McCain wasn't actually even for Meccanicos for his family. But uh,

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Speaker 1: and so the and so the president has a blind

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Speaker 1: spot on some of these issues. And I think his staff,

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Speaker 1: as they have tried to prepare for this trip, both

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Speaker 1: the political staff and the National Security Council, have sought

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Speaker 1: um to have the president focus on um, the diplomacy

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Speaker 1: and the historic sweep of this event. They have sought

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Speaker 1: to minimize his interactions and and his distractions with those

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Speaker 1: issues such as British politics. But before he had even

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Speaker 1: landed on the ground, he um, he cannot resist. It

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Speaker 1: seems that he can resist. So Margaret walked in the

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Speaker 1: studio John Farrell and she said, Tom, on half your height.

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Speaker 1: It's actually true. I'm like four ft one. Really strange

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Speaker 1: spat with the with the Mayor of London. It's very strange,

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Speaker 1: Markret and it's not just one way. It comes from

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Speaker 1: the Mayor of London as well. Sadi Con not exactly

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Speaker 1: laying out the red carpet on the last two busies. No,

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Speaker 1: in fact I to p to paraphraser, but this is

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Speaker 1: almost exactly he almost He said, why is Britain rolling

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Speaker 1: out the red carpet? And uh Sidi Con put out

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Speaker 1: this op edit Brandon The Guardian of course, over the weekend,

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Speaker 1: and then, just in case the President hadn't read it yet,

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Speaker 1: retweeted it about twenty minutes before Air Force one while

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Speaker 1: wheels down and Trump, faced with the choice of taking

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Speaker 1: the high road or punching back, did what um he prefers.

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Speaker 1: He punched back. So let's talk about the next couple

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Speaker 1: of days. Wednesday is really really important for the world

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Speaker 1: to pause and remember Tuesday. This going to this working

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Speaker 1: dinner lunch with the Prime Minister and several executives, to

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Speaker 1: what can we expect from tomorrow on the policy front,

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Speaker 1: if we can expect anythink at all. Tomorrow is an

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Speaker 1: important policy day for a couple of reasons. Even though

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Speaker 1: Theresa May is on her way out and so they're

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Speaker 1: not going to like wrap up Huawei or bilateral trade

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Speaker 1: with the bow. Uh. It is a moment for the

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Speaker 1: President and for the Prime Minister and for their two

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Speaker 1: teams to move the ball forward on some of these

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Speaker 1: issues that are going to exist not only beyond her

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Speaker 1: prime ministership, but perhaps beyond his presidency as well. Some

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Speaker 1: of these are long term, decades long issues, uh, and

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Speaker 1: involve um things such as intelligence sharing. Okay, but beyond that,

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Speaker 1: the President wants it's obvious now, there's no doubt, wants

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Speaker 1: to put his thumb on the scale in terms of

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Speaker 1: the next Prime Minister's contest because he wants to influence breggsit.

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Speaker 1: He wants to make sure Breggsit happens. He wants to

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Speaker 1: make sure breaks that happens in a way that he

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Speaker 1: thinks will help the United States. Very quickly, one more question,

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Speaker 1: Secretary Minution came down the stairs after the President and

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Speaker 1: the First Lady. Are they in speaking terms on trade?

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Speaker 1: They are? And I think with Kevin Hassett on his

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Speaker 1: way out that having Manution around, you know what happened

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Speaker 1: did he resigned? Was he kicked out? What we're still getting.

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Speaker 1: The announcement came very shortly, you know, before the President's

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Speaker 1: arrival here. It's been busy till she hasn't got the scape.

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Speaker 1: We see her Wednesday or Thursday. She's back. She spat

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Speaker 1: with us tomorrow. Get might right, John Farroll the vote

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Speaker 1: right now? Are p M I. I think the I

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Speaker 1: M S P M mis have always been important. The

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Speaker 1: ice sunds, particularly in the United States, an important indicator

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Speaker 1: of of US growth. Tom okay, let's ask Diane swaps

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Speaker 1: with us. Grant Thornton Chief, is it great to speak

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Speaker 1: with Diane swak On another fantatistic Diane talked to us

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Speaker 1: about the importance of is MS can convert a nonbeliever

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Speaker 1: in Tom King, I shouldn't make me laugh. I'm recovering

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Speaker 1: from severe acute learningitis. But you know, the soft indicators

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Speaker 1: with my voice lower and much lower than it's fine, Diane,

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Speaker 1: thank you for being with us. Just sounds terrible, but

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Speaker 1: conte um, this is the most voice I've had in

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Speaker 1: a week. So anyway, those soft indicators are really important

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Speaker 1: today because they're more of a real time indicator, and

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Speaker 1: the employment of report coming out I'm pride, of course,

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Speaker 1: will be another one of those closer indicators that doesn't

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Speaker 1: have as big of a lag, and people are really

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Speaker 1: trying to feel how much is the trade situation affecting us?

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Speaker 1: How much? You know, those soft indicators have shown more

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Speaker 1: weakness than some of the overall measures of the US

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Speaker 1: economic growth are looking closer to one point seven in

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Speaker 1: the second quarter. So that's why we're paying so much

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Speaker 1: attention to them, because they give us a sense of

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Speaker 1: real time, although only albeit a very small slice of

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Speaker 1: the overall pie, the economic pie we're looking at. And

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Speaker 1: now we rip up and I remember those reports to you,

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Speaker 1: remember M one, M two when you were a freshman

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Speaker 1: year at Michigan. And now we rip up the script.

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Speaker 1: There is no one genetically from a family heritage were

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Speaker 1: hardwired to speak on the economics of trade and the

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Speaker 1: American auto industry like Diane Swap Diane, you grew up bleeding?

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Speaker 1: Was it GM that you grew up bleeding? Uh? GM?

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Speaker 1: And Forward? Actually my dad started forward, went to GM,

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Speaker 1: and my stepfather was exactly we had it all covered

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Speaker 1: head mustangs and cats. You know, am just out of

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Speaker 1: the headline moments ago US as friends with Mexico. There's

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Speaker 1: been a blur of headlines. What does all this trade

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Speaker 1: stuff mean for American auto? It's really really hard. This

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Speaker 1: was written for the auto industry. NAPTA was written for

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Speaker 1: the auto industry in it was written for the Midwestern states.

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Speaker 1: In fact, at that point in time, the supply chain.

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Speaker 1: The reason even five percent, which seems like a small

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Speaker 1: tier off to start with, it compounds so rapidly because

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Speaker 1: of the number of times apart or component goes over

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Speaker 1: the border before a vehicle is completed. So the amount

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Speaker 1: of content you add in from the get go, from

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Speaker 1: June tenth on is quite high. And that's why you

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Speaker 1: even see some business looking out there too. Through the

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Speaker 1: administration on that can people like you or people would

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Speaker 1: give the fedshop Chicago whatever Cleveland, can they explain to

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Speaker 1: the leadership, including the President of the United States the

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Speaker 1: number of jobs that will be lost. Well, I think

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Speaker 1: the people who can explain it best are not leaving

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Speaker 1: the administration, which is unfortunate. Seeing Yeah, and I think

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Speaker 1: you know, the reality is is that this has become

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Speaker 1: The goal of this is not just trade. The goal

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Speaker 1: of this is not just bringing jobs back to the U. S.

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Speaker 1: There's a larger goal. Clearly, the goal of the Mexican

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Speaker 1: tourists have to do with refugees at the border and

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Speaker 1: what's going on at the border that could be solved

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Speaker 1: other ways, and um, we need to think about what

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Speaker 1: the cost and trade us of every solution are. But

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Speaker 1: I think that there's a disconnect between the economic consequences

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Speaker 1: of actions and emotional reaction to what's happening at the border.

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Speaker 1: That's what makes this latest turn in the last week

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Speaker 1: so so difficult for economists and that I speak to.

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Speaker 1: With China, it's almost a known entity that some economists

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Speaker 1: even agree. In fact, many people that I speak to

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Speaker 1: agree with the president's approach to China to get them

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Speaker 1: to open up the economy because ultimately we can achieve

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Speaker 1: that it could be better for the global economy. With Mexico,

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Speaker 1: it's moved from an economic tool to an economic goal

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Speaker 1: towards an economic tool for a political outcome. And Dianne

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Speaker 1: just wonders, makes you wonder what else is in play,

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Speaker 1: and that makes it really difficult to have any kind

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Speaker 1: of forecast on growth. How on earth does an economist

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Speaker 1: like yourself come up with a forecast on growth with

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Speaker 1: all these extra variables to deal with? What do you do, Diane, Well,

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Speaker 1: it's a great question and one of the things that

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Speaker 1: we're looking at, and it's it's not something you can

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Speaker 1: just add up. What you have to start doing is

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Speaker 1: saying what kind of toll can this play in terms

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Speaker 1: of the market psyche, in terms of business psyche, in

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Speaker 1: terms of consumer psyche. And what we've seen already is

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Speaker 1: that some major indicators out there have already flipped into

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Speaker 1: that prerecession territory. Doesn't mean a recession is imminent, but

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Speaker 1: CEO confidences flowing below the fifties threshold for the by

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Speaker 1: the Conference Board. We've seen consumers, although they're confident about

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Speaker 1: their current situation, they're not so happy about the future.

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Speaker 1: We've seen that the s M survey has fallen lower

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Speaker 1: on the manufacturing side. All of those things suggested for

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Speaker 1: Julie that could be compounded with these scares that make

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Speaker 1: it very hard that tipping point, the domino effect of

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Speaker 1: something that could tip us into recession doesn't look like

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Speaker 1: it numerically by just the direct Cariiff's effects alone. And

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Speaker 1: that's what we start looking at, is the collateral damage. Dan,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much. Your voice sounds like Janni's chopping

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Speaker 1: after the third album. All right, be nice, Dan, thank you,

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Speaker 1: thank you, Nick, you can be nice to you. I'd

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Speaker 1: beautiful just watching you Trump. Thanks for listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Tom Keene before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio