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Speaker 2: All right, let's get to one stock in the move.
Speaker 2: A's Tesla shares down by about two percent. They're off
Speaker 2: the lows of the session. It reported first quarter deliveries
Speaker 2: that went below analyst estimates, touching the lowest level since
Speaker 2: the second quarter of twenty twenty two. I want to
Speaker 2: talk to Steve Mann, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Audios and Research
Speaker 2: analyst joining us. Hey, Steve, what would behind the drop
Speaker 2: in sales? That may seem like an obvious question, but
Speaker 2: it feels like there are lots of layers here to this.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Admittedly, the thirty percent decline was a little bit
Speaker 3: more than what we were expecting. We were expecting around
Speaker 3: three hundred and fifty thousand, came in at around three
Speaker 3: hundred and thirty six. But you know, it's if you
Speaker 3: look below the headline, it's actually operating as we expected.
Speaker 3: It's unfolding as we expected. China sales. Retail sales is
Speaker 3: actually up despite production down year on year. US is
Speaker 3: kind of flatish. Really, the dent to the quarterly sales
Speaker 3: was in Europe. It seems like March. March is a
Speaker 3: little bit worse than February and January. But our thesis
Speaker 3: has not changed. You know, we still think the inflection
Speaker 3: point is in second quarter. We believe China sales improvement
Speaker 3: will extend into the second quarter, and then, you know,
Speaker 3: the Model Y has already launched in the US and
Speaker 3: we expect, you know, some improvement in sales in the
Speaker 3: US as well in the second quarter.
Speaker 4: Talk to us about the model. Why I know Matt
Speaker 4: Miller has yet to take me in a model. Why
Speaker 4: so I don't know anything about it. Tell me about
Speaker 4: the model. Why is it a game changer? Is it
Speaker 4: just a slight move. Talk about this new model what
Speaker 4: it might mean.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah, there's some cosmetic changes in the front end
Speaker 3: and the rear end. The lighting in the rear end
Speaker 3: is is pretty cool if you haven't seen it yet.
Speaker 3: But I think the most biggest, some of the biggest
Speaker 3: changes are inside the user experience. There's a monitor at
Speaker 3: the back, there's a nice little cooler up in the
Speaker 3: front end. So you know, there's people who have held
Speaker 3: off buying the model, why anticipation of the new one.
Speaker 2: But how much of this is reputational damage? It might
Speaker 2: be too early to say, right because it's still through March.
Speaker 2: But I hear you that on principle, you're bullish on
Speaker 2: the car and sales in essence. But I mean, we
Speaker 2: can't ignore the reputational damage. I mean, I know that
Speaker 2: I'm in Brooklyn, but I see like get rid of
Speaker 2: your Tesla signs everywhere at this point, that's right, I don't.
Speaker 3: I don't think we can ignore that what we're seeing
Speaker 3: in the media and what happening to test the cars
Speaker 3: and in showrooms, it is having an impact. It definitely
Speaker 3: is having some impact in Europe. But at the end
Speaker 3: of the day, you know, we feel that a lot
Speaker 3: of it is being priced in. The stock has come
Speaker 3: off from its highs since the election. You know, the
Speaker 3: P four pe ratio is around eighty five times twenty
Speaker 3: twenty five earnings. That's just about ten percent above where
Speaker 3: it traded before the presidential election. So I think, you know,
Speaker 3: I think the stock has pretty much factored that in,
Speaker 3: and you know, we're looking ahead and we think business
Speaker 3: fundamental should improve in the second quarter. You deliver, it
Speaker 3: should improve in the second quarter.
Speaker 4: Does the company does the stock need Elon Musk to
Speaker 4: come back to the company?
Speaker 3: I personally, I think so because he's he's an industrialist.
Speaker 3: He's an avid cost cutter, and that's really what you
Speaker 3: really need in the auto industry given the price competition
Speaker 3: that we're seeing around the world. And uh uh you know,
Speaker 3: hopefully later in the year, when you know, when he
Speaker 3: gets thosee up and running in a steady pace and
Speaker 3: uh you know, he can maybe step off and refocus
Speaker 3: on on his businesses.
Speaker 2: What does Tesla need to refocus on? Like what company
Speaker 2: does Tesla now need to be?
Speaker 3: Well, they need to continue to be an innovator. I
Speaker 3: think there's a lot of debate out there why Tesla
Speaker 3: deserves a higher valuation than like GM and Ford. Look,
Speaker 3: you know they have they they're doing something that you know,
Speaker 3: we I couldn't imagine anyone can do in the auto industry,
Speaker 3: which is to start a new automaker in this day
Speaker 3: and age, it's high barriers of entry, and they're doing
Speaker 3: it in a way that it's profitable. Right. Uh, you know,
Speaker 3: there's there's a lot of debate, but you know they are,
Speaker 3: they are booking profits on EV sales and uh, you
Speaker 3: know it's it's hard to find, you know, an automaker
Speaker 3: that can still do this and do it do it
Speaker 3: in a consistent manner.
Speaker 4: Steve, I just bought a vehicle. I mean, I'll have
Speaker 4: you know. It is a hybrid, so I'm getting there slowly.
Speaker 2: He's not actually driving it, but it's a fair point.
Speaker 4: So Steve is b y D and the Chinese automakers.
Speaker 4: Are they going to take over the e V world?
Speaker 1: You know, it looks like it.
Speaker 3: Time will tell. They're very aggressive. You know, they've you know,
Speaker 3: they've cornered the market in China, right, they've basically, through
Speaker 3: price they have pushed out a lot of the foreign
Speaker 3: automakers out of China.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 3: And then you know they're actually branching out into the
Speaker 3: rest of the world. Not not in the US. They're
Speaker 3: making headways in Europe despite the tariffs there. But they're
Speaker 3: really aggressive in emerging markets, which is competing a lot
Speaker 3: with the likes of Toyota and the Koreated South Korean Handay.
Speaker 3: So you know they're if you can think of you know,
Speaker 3: they're kind of encircling the US at the moment, North
Speaker 3: America at the moment. So, uh, they don't have to
Speaker 3: be in the US. But if you know they're in there,
Speaker 3: if they're strong in China and there's strong in other
Speaker 3: emerging markets, uh, you know they will they will eventually dominate.
Speaker 2: Okay, but thirty seconds or so, lepstive. But speaking of
Speaker 2: when Paul bought the car, it was a Honda and
Speaker 2: it was you made in the US. So, like, why
Speaker 2: have foreign automakers been able to move manufacturing here in
Speaker 2: a way that US automakers haven't.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I think I think a lot of
Speaker 3: automakers over time has been very focused on driving profitability.
Speaker 3: And there's nothing wrong with that, right, There's nothing wrong
Speaker 3: with that, and that's that's the only reason why we
Speaker 3: people go into business is to make money. But I think, uh,
Speaker 3: you know that that you know, there has to be
Speaker 3: a balance. I think, and you know, driving costs is great,
Speaker 3: but can we drive costs with innovation? And I think
Speaker 3: that's what Trump is trying to do based on his rhetoric,
Speaker 3: is to bring back manufacturing. So like, how can The
Speaker 3: question is how can automakers actually build a low cost
Speaker 3: car in the US through innovation.
Speaker 2: It's Steve Man, a Bloomberg Intelligence at Global Autos and
Speaker 2: Industry at the Analysts. Thank you very much for joining us.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 4: That Musk news is really interesting. It's great for the
Speaker 4: stock stocks. Up four percent is Genosis reporting, So I'm
Speaker 4: sure the investors there are happy. Let's get right down
Speaker 4: to DC and get it from the a source, our source.
Speaker 4: Then in DC. Nathan Dean, senior policy analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 4: Nathan in the Beltway, what was the feeler and what
Speaker 4: is the feeling about Elon Musk? His role, his proximity
Speaker 4: to the president is so so close, and it's been
Speaker 4: that way since the inauguration here, But is anybody surprised
Speaker 4: that he may be leaving maybe leading soon?
Speaker 5: So I don't think I was surprised. I think this
Speaker 5: makes sense. And obviously if you're in Tesla investor, you're
Speaker 5: going to like the idea that Elon Musk returns to
Speaker 5: the company. But if you think about it, you know,
Speaker 5: the Doge Committee, the Doge Group, if you will, they've
Speaker 5: been expanding. Bloomberg News just reported a few minutes ago
Speaker 5: that Kelshi's chief regulatory officer is going to Doge. What
Speaker 5: Elon Musk essentially has done is he's created a group
Speaker 5: and they're going agency by agency, but they can only
Speaker 5: cut so much. You know, if they cut too much,
Speaker 5: then eventually it's going to be a political blowback. And
Speaker 5: Elon Musk doesn't have the power to go after the
Speaker 5: mandatory spending, which is where the big ticket items in
Speaker 5: terms of reducing the deficit is. So I think this
Speaker 5: makes sense. He's going to return to the Tesla. Assuming
Speaker 5: Political is reporting is correct, he'll return to Tesla, but
Speaker 5: nothing prevents him from coming back. Nothing prevents them from
Speaker 5: going into the White House. And I think if you're
Speaker 5: a Republican on Capitol Hill, you'll love the idea that
Speaker 5: maybe you're not going to have the White House calling
Speaker 5: for deep cuts to Social Security, the mandatory spending. If
Speaker 5: you will, they'll be left to Congress. So I think
Speaker 5: they may be pleased with this as well.
Speaker 2: So this is not the end of DOGE. If this
Speaker 2: is indeed true, this is just sort of an evolution
Speaker 2: of DOGE, So we can still expect that to come
Speaker 2: and bring hammers to everyone's payrolier.
Speaker 5: Absolutely well, at least in terms of your first question
Speaker 5: in terms of this is not the end of DOGE.
Speaker 5: Dog is going to continue. But what Elon must did
Speaker 5: is essentially created a group of advisors and individuals that
Speaker 5: are going in agency by agency and they're looking at
Speaker 5: identifying areas to cut. But for Elon's mangal of deficit reduction,
Speaker 5: he's not going to be able to do that with DOGE.
Speaker 5: They just do not have the power to do that.
Speaker 5: It requires an Act of Congress. So you are going
Speaker 5: to see DOGE continue probably for the next year, if
Speaker 5: not a little bit longer, until they really get to
Speaker 5: the point where they are streamlined and they feel that
Speaker 5: they've adequately right sized those agencies. But for the big
Speaker 5: ticket items, we're going to see that in the upcoming
Speaker 5: tax debate in terms of things like MEDICAIDS, snap benefits.
Speaker 5: You know obviously that was a mandatory, but social Security,
Speaker 5: the really key things that are really important to the deficit.
Speaker 5: DOJ and Elon Musk just don't have the ability to control.
Speaker 5: He's going to need Congress to do that. And I
Speaker 5: think Congress is going to be happy. They're now going
Speaker 5: to be in the back in the driver's seat, assuming
Speaker 5: that Elon Musk does leave.
Speaker 4: And Nathan, I wonder if the last night's race in Wisconsin,
Speaker 4: with the addictional race where Elon Musk candidate did not win,
Speaker 4: do you think that had anything to do with his
Speaker 4: decision making.
Speaker 5: I don't think so. But I think what last night
Speaker 5: didd was the indication of what Republicans fear may happen
Speaker 5: eighteen months from now. I mean, if you look at
Speaker 5: midterm elections, they always swing back the other way. I
Speaker 5: mean the joke is, think of US politics as like
Speaker 5: a car out of control going down the street. It
Speaker 5: hits guardrails left and right, left and right, it never
Speaker 5: goes straight. And so you know, the tendency here is
Speaker 5: is that the House of rep is going to be
Speaker 5: in play for Democrats. And I think yesterday just told
Speaker 5: a lot of those Republicans on Capitol Hill that a
Speaker 5: year from now this may be something that hurts them politically.
Speaker 5: And so I don't think anybody's going to vote off
Speaker 5: of what happens right now eighteen months from now. But
Speaker 5: I do think that this decision for Elon Musk to
Speaker 5: maybe step away from Washington and go back to Texas
Speaker 5: and Florida and so forth like that will make a
Speaker 5: little bit of the Republicans and capitall breathe a little
Speaker 5: bit easier, just because they can get a little bit
Speaker 5: more control of the narrative.
Speaker 2: You know what this did do We didn't talk about
Speaker 2: tariffs for four minutes. Yes, I'm just saying that newsful
Speaker 2: definitely just changed. Nathan. Okay, So four o'clock today, I'm
Speaker 2: going to be sitting on set on TV, gonna have
Speaker 2: my terminal NI heads for all the pros out there.
Speaker 2: What are the headlines that you the literal headline that
Speaker 2: crosses that you're going to be most interested in.
Speaker 5: So obviously the biggest question is is this going to
Speaker 5: be a country tax or a tariff? Or is this
Speaker 5: going to be a tariff tariff? Sorry, tiered tariff. But
Speaker 5: you know, one of the big questions we're getting from
Speaker 5: clients this morning is they're focusing on Secretary I'm sorry,
Speaker 5: Treasury Secretary of Scott Beston is saying in terms these
Speaker 5: are a cap is essentially floating the idea that these
Speaker 5: are a cap, with the idea here that potentially President
Speaker 5: Trump will be willing to negotiate going forward and bringing
Speaker 5: this down from like a cap down to a reciprocal tariff.
Speaker 5: And so the question for me is, in this statement
Speaker 5: tonight at the White House or sorry, at the Rose Garden,
Speaker 5: is President Trump going to give any indication that he'll
Speaker 5: be willing to pick up a phone tomorrow. Because if
Speaker 5: that's the case, you know, he can come out and
Speaker 5: say twenty fifteen, twenty percent universal tariff, whatever it may be,
Speaker 5: but tomorrow it may be different. And so you're not
Speaker 5: going to get that clarity of this is what the
Speaker 5: tariff policy for the United States will be. I don't
Speaker 5: think the markets will like that, just because I don't
Speaker 5: think that clarity is coming.
Speaker 4: So do you expect any pushback feedback once we do
Speaker 4: know what the policy is from either obviously the Democrats
Speaker 4: or maybe even some in the Republican Party.
Speaker 5: Well, absolutely, I mean I think we're going to see,
Speaker 5: you know, obviously the sometime today pick up their resolution
Speaker 5: to try and you know, overturn these tariffs that were
Speaker 5: up with Canada, and you know, my vote count, I
Speaker 5: at least I had. You know, the Democrats need four
Speaker 5: Republican senators to go along with them, and I think.
Speaker 1: They have it.
Speaker 5: So you are going to begin to see a public
Speaker 5: rebuke of some of these tariffs. I would just caution though,
Speaker 5: and say that, you know, tariffs are the power of
Speaker 5: the presidency. Congress delegated its authority a long time ago,
Speaker 5: so there's only so much Congress can do to actually
Speaker 5: advise the presidents say maybe you should scale this back.
Speaker 5: So it's ultimately President Trump's decision. And I think that
Speaker 5: for him to be able to walk back this tariff,
Speaker 5: and this is just my own personal belief, you're going
Speaker 5: to you're going to need to see consumer confidence or
Speaker 5: sticker shock amongst things that you know, Americans just buying
Speaker 5: a daily basis for him to actually walk back a
Speaker 5: lot of their tarff threat.
Speaker 2: And of course, though the goal is to shipt the
Speaker 2: economy though away from physical spending to private led investments,
Speaker 2: is that a possible thing.
Speaker 4: Not in the short term.
Speaker 5: I mean, this has been the White House plan all along,
Speaker 5: is that you're going to have short term pain for
Speaker 5: long term gain. But you know, some of these pains
Speaker 5: are going to be very, very, very permanent. I mean,
Speaker 5: if you think of just the farmer argument in particular
Speaker 5: that you know, if the United States does move forward
Speaker 5: and use the USDA to implement subsidies for farmers, farmers
Speaker 5: aren't going to like that because essentially what it means
Speaker 5: is that you're going to be thrown out of the
Speaker 5: supply chain and in the future, maybe instead of buying
Speaker 5: goods from the United States, they're going to buy it
Speaker 5: from Brazil. That's not something that you're going to be
Speaker 5: able to easily reverse. So yes, you are going to
Speaker 5: get this shift. And we've heard from clients saying, look,
Speaker 5: I want to potentially buy a factory in the United States.
Speaker 5: I just can't do it in twenty twenty five, probably
Speaker 5: can't even do it by twenty twenty seven. So you know,
Speaker 5: again it's really how long how long can the White
Speaker 5: House really keep with this strategy to try and transform
Speaker 5: that economy.
Speaker 4: All right, Nathan, thank you so much. We appreciate it,
Speaker 4: and you're going to have a long afternoon and into
Speaker 4: the evening analyzing what we will hear from the President
Speaker 4: this scepter and Nathan Deane, Senior policy analyst Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 4: He's based down there and wash it in DC. He
Speaker 4: does a wonderful job explaining all the mechanizations of what
Speaker 4: happens down there in Washington and Congress and Capitol Hill
Speaker 4: and in the White House as well.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto
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Speaker 2: It's not just about musk, It's not just about tariffs.
Speaker 2: It's also about TikTok. Potentially. President Trump is weighing plans
Speaker 2: for TikTok sale today at a meeting. We want to
Speaker 2: get more on this. And Matt you St and Hell
Speaker 2: media litigation analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, he joins us now
Speaker 2: from DC. All right, remind us of where we are
Speaker 2: in the law and what Congress did and where we're
Speaker 2: at here.
Speaker 6: Yeah, So we are at the point where Congress adopted
Speaker 6: this law last year that effectively bans TikTok in the
Speaker 6: United States. As of January nineteenth. The Supreme Court upheld
Speaker 6: that law after TikTok Talk brought a constitutional challenge, and
Speaker 6: then President Trump adopted an executive order just before the
Speaker 6: law was going to take effect in mid January to
Speaker 6: say that, look, companies that are at risk under this law,
Speaker 6: don't worry about it. Right now, we're not going to
Speaker 6: enforce that law. So app stores like Google and Apple
Speaker 6: and Oracle, companies that host TikTok, potentially faced billions of
Speaker 6: dollars of liability under the law. Trump's Attorney general sent
Speaker 6: a letter saying, don't worry about it. We don't think
Speaker 6: you're in violation of the law, so you can continue
Speaker 6: to host TikTok. That executive order from President Trump ran
Speaker 6: for seventy five days. That takes you to Saturday, April fifth.
Speaker 6: So we're at the point where there's likely to be
Speaker 6: some action. And as you said, there's a meeting in
Speaker 6: the White House today.
Speaker 4: It's a good time for this discussion. Matthew had read
Speaker 4: headline crossing the Bloomberg terminals we speak, Amazon puts in
Speaker 4: a last minute bid to acquire all of TikTok. What
Speaker 4: do you make of that?
Speaker 6: That's that's that's fascinating. I mean to me, that underscores
Speaker 6: how far we are away from a resolution here and
Speaker 6: you're talking about, you know, you know, some indication that
Speaker 6: they that a deal could be in place by by Saturday.
Speaker 6: I don't think so. There there are so many moving
Speaker 6: pieces here and new bids coming in that the idea
Speaker 6: that all of this is going to be resolved in
Speaker 6: three days seems pretty fantastic. So I think what you're
Speaker 6: likely to see is sort of some indication of movement
Speaker 6: towards a deal and President Trump again kicking the can
Speaker 6: down the road. And the only question is is anyone
Speaker 6: going to stand up to that. There was a lot
Speaker 6: of political courage to to, you know, advocate for a
Speaker 6: ban of TikTok last year. There were some votes in
Speaker 6: Congress that were fifty to zero for it. But now
Speaker 6: President Trump has a warm spot in his heart for TikTok,
Speaker 6: as he says, and suddenly some of that courage is
Speaker 6: falling away. So that's going to be the interesting dynamic
Speaker 6: is how much lawmakers or maybe TikTok's competitors stand up
Speaker 6: and say, hey, we have a law on the books
Speaker 6: here that that that bands TikTok. Are we going to
Speaker 6: enforce it or not?
Speaker 2: So to that point, I guess I wonder what part
Speaker 2: of TikTok is still left to be bought in that
Speaker 2: is it just going to be the US stuff, which
Speaker 2: may not be as valuable, or is it going to
Speaker 2: also be the technology that kind of sits in China.
Speaker 2: And if that's the case, how do we get.
Speaker 6: That That's that's sort of the million dollar question here,
Speaker 6: because there was a lot of pushback in Congress for
Speaker 6: the idea that a company tied to China would still
Speaker 6: have control over the algorithm, and and a lot of
Speaker 6: the solutions you're seeing floated around look a lot like
Speaker 6: what TikTok was pitching as Project Texas last year, where
Speaker 6: the US opperations what would work here maybe under Oracle
Speaker 6: or someone else, but the algorithm would still ultimately be
Speaker 6: controlled by by byte Dance. And the question is is
Speaker 6: that the sort of solution that we're talking about here,
Speaker 6: because ultimately China and byte Dance need to agree to this,
Speaker 6: and and with with Trump kicking the can down the
Speaker 6: road on this van, I'm not sure they have a
Speaker 6: lot of concern. I don't know that the US has
Speaker 6: a lot of leverage to force them to sell the algorithm,
Speaker 6: So it seems very likely that we're looking at some
Speaker 6: sort of solution that that keeps that algorithm tied to China,
Speaker 6: tied to byte Dance, And the question is is Congress
Speaker 6: going to be okay with that now in a way
Speaker 6: they weren't last year?
Speaker 4: I mean, silly question, but there's no indication that byte
Speaker 4: Dance wants to sell here. So I mean an Amazon
Speaker 4: bid is impressive, but I don't think I've got a
Speaker 4: seller there, do I.
Speaker 6: That's exactly that's been the problem, you know through this
Speaker 6: whole process, is is bike Dance really willing to sell
Speaker 6: and especially the algorithm component here with with China needing
Speaker 6: to to bless that. So yeah, a lot of offers,
Speaker 6: a lot of talk, but but I think we're far
Speaker 6: from from any sort of final resolution here.
Speaker 2: So to that point, this goes back to the earlier
Speaker 2: headline that Paul just broke that Amazon's putting in that
Speaker 2: last minute bid to acquire all of TikTok this according
Speaker 2: to the New York Times, who else quickly is on
Speaker 2: the docket to potentially buy?
Speaker 6: Yeah, so I mean you keep seeing Oracle mentioned as
Speaker 6: a potential bidder. You saw Frank McCourt was on Bloomberg
Speaker 6: Television earlier, and you know a number of other names,
Speaker 6: you know, floating around. I don't have great visibility into
Speaker 6: all those offers. I've heard four offers you know, talked about.
Speaker 6: But just I think we'll learn more this afternoon after
Speaker 6: this meeting, as as President Trump considers next steps here.
Speaker 6: But again a lot of open questions on the law
Speaker 6: and big questions politically of whether whether people are going
Speaker 6: to advocate for the law that was adopted last year.
Speaker 4: All right, so you know, Alex that Matt does all
Speaker 4: the litigation around the media communications, which means he's going
Speaker 4: to be going out to the NAP conference out in Vegas,
Speaker 4: National Association of Broadcasters. So I asked him offline, where
Speaker 4: are you staying in Vegas? Because that tells me a
Speaker 4: lot about a person, you know. His response, he didn't know.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Al did not like this.
Speaker 6: By the way, Matt, I booked someplace. I got to
Speaker 6: look it up.
Speaker 4: All thank goodness, because I mean, you know, when I
Speaker 4: was out there, first it was the mirage, then Bolagio
Speaker 4: nounce the win. But it's it says a lot about it.
Speaker 2: But if you don't know where you're staying, that just
Speaker 2: means that you got you've got nothing going noew lots
Speaker 2: of shade, Lots of shade. Met Schettenhelm of Boomberg Intelligence
Speaker 2: Litigation Analysts, thank you so very much.
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