1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio, Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:23,240 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 2: All right, let's get to one stock in the move. 7 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 2: A's Tesla shares down by about two percent. They're off 8 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 2: the lows of the session. It reported first quarter deliveries 9 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 2: that went below analyst estimates, touching the lowest level since 10 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 2: the second quarter of twenty twenty two. I want to 11 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:41,159 Speaker 2: talk to Steve Mann, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Audios and Research 12 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 2: analyst joining us. Hey, Steve, what would behind the drop 13 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:46,920 Speaker 2: in sales? That may seem like an obvious question, but 14 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:48,599 Speaker 2: it feels like there are lots of layers here to this. 15 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, Admittedly, the thirty percent decline was a little bit 16 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 3: more than what we were expecting. We were expecting around 17 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 3: three hundred and fifty thousand, came in at around three 18 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 3: hundred and thirty six. But you know, it's if you 19 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 3: look below the headline, it's actually operating as we expected. 20 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 3: It's unfolding as we expected. China sales. Retail sales is 21 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 3: actually up despite production down year on year. US is 22 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:22,039 Speaker 3: kind of flatish. Really, the dent to the quarterly sales 23 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:24,720 Speaker 3: was in Europe. It seems like March. March is a 24 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 3: little bit worse than February and January. But our thesis 25 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 3: has not changed. You know, we still think the inflection 26 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 3: point is in second quarter. We believe China sales improvement 27 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 3: will extend into the second quarter, and then, you know, 28 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 3: the Model Y has already launched in the US and 29 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:45,399 Speaker 3: we expect, you know, some improvement in sales in the 30 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 3: US as well in the second quarter. 31 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 4: Talk to us about the model. Why I know Matt 32 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 4: Miller has yet to take me in a model. Why 33 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 4: so I don't know anything about it. Tell me about 34 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 4: the model. Why is it a game changer? Is it 35 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 4: just a slight move. Talk about this new model what 36 00:01:58,600 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 4: it might mean. 37 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah, there's some cosmetic changes in the front end 38 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 3: and the rear end. The lighting in the rear end 39 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 3: is is pretty cool if you haven't seen it yet. 40 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 3: But I think the most biggest, some of the biggest 41 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 3: changes are inside the user experience. There's a monitor at 42 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 3: the back, there's a nice little cooler up in the 43 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 3: front end. So you know, there's people who have held 44 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,799 Speaker 3: off buying the model, why anticipation of the new one. 45 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 2: But how much of this is reputational damage? It might 46 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 2: be too early to say, right because it's still through March. 47 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:37,360 Speaker 2: But I hear you that on principle, you're bullish on 48 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 2: the car and sales in essence. But I mean, we 49 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:43,080 Speaker 2: can't ignore the reputational damage. I mean, I know that 50 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 2: I'm in Brooklyn, but I see like get rid of 51 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 2: your Tesla signs everywhere at this point, that's right, I don't. 52 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 3: I don't think we can ignore that what we're seeing 53 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:54,520 Speaker 3: in the media and what happening to test the cars 54 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:58,920 Speaker 3: and in showrooms, it is having an impact. It definitely 55 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 3: is having some impact in Europe. But at the end 56 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 3: of the day, you know, we feel that a lot 57 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 3: of it is being priced in. The stock has come 58 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 3: off from its highs since the election. You know, the 59 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 3: P four pe ratio is around eighty five times twenty 60 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 3: twenty five earnings. That's just about ten percent above where 61 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 3: it traded before the presidential election. So I think, you know, 62 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 3: I think the stock has pretty much factored that in, 63 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 3: and you know, we're looking ahead and we think business 64 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 3: fundamental should improve in the second quarter. You deliver, it 65 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 3: should improve in the second quarter. 66 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 4: Does the company does the stock need Elon Musk to 67 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 4: come back to the company? 68 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 3: I personally, I think so because he's he's an industrialist. 69 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 3: He's an avid cost cutter, and that's really what you 70 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 3: really need in the auto industry given the price competition 71 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 3: that we're seeing around the world. And uh uh you know, 72 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 3: hopefully later in the year, when you know, when he 73 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 3: gets thosee up and running in a steady pace and 74 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 3: uh you know, he can maybe step off and refocus 75 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 3: on on his businesses. 76 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 2: What does Tesla need to refocus on? Like what company 77 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 2: does Tesla now need to be? 78 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:22,919 Speaker 3: Well, they need to continue to be an innovator. I 79 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,719 Speaker 3: think there's a lot of debate out there why Tesla 80 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 3: deserves a higher valuation than like GM and Ford. Look, 81 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:34,719 Speaker 3: you know they have they they're doing something that you know, 82 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:38,720 Speaker 3: we I couldn't imagine anyone can do in the auto industry, 83 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 3: which is to start a new automaker in this day 84 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 3: and age, it's high barriers of entry, and they're doing 85 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 3: it in a way that it's profitable. Right. Uh, you know, 86 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 3: there's there's a lot of debate, but you know they are, 87 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:59,159 Speaker 3: they are booking profits on EV sales and uh, you 88 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 3: know it's it's hard to find, you know, an automaker 89 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 3: that can still do this and do it do it 90 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 3: in a consistent manner. 91 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 4: Steve, I just bought a vehicle. I mean, I'll have 92 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 4: you know. It is a hybrid, so I'm getting there slowly. 93 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,160 Speaker 2: He's not actually driving it, but it's a fair point. 94 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 4: So Steve is b y D and the Chinese automakers. 95 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 4: Are they going to take over the e V world? 96 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 1: You know, it looks like it. 97 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:33,719 Speaker 3: Time will tell. They're very aggressive. You know, they've you know, 98 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 3: they've cornered the market in China, right, they've basically, through 99 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:39,280 Speaker 3: price they have pushed out a lot of the foreign 100 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 3: automakers out of China. 101 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 4: Uh. 102 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:45,279 Speaker 3: And then you know they're actually branching out into the 103 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 3: rest of the world. Not not in the US. They're 104 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 3: making headways in Europe despite the tariffs there. But they're 105 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 3: really aggressive in emerging markets, which is competing a lot 106 00:05:57,160 --> 00:06:01,359 Speaker 3: with the likes of Toyota and the Koreated South Korean Handay. 107 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 3: So you know they're if you can think of you know, 108 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 3: they're kind of encircling the US at the moment, North 109 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 3: America at the moment. So, uh, they don't have to 110 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 3: be in the US. But if you know they're in there, 111 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 3: if they're strong in China and there's strong in other 112 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 3: emerging markets, uh, you know they will they will eventually dominate. 113 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:27,359 Speaker 2: Okay, but thirty seconds or so, lepstive. But speaking of 114 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:29,599 Speaker 2: when Paul bought the car, it was a Honda and 115 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 2: it was you made in the US. So, like, why 116 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 2: have foreign automakers been able to move manufacturing here in 117 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:38,360 Speaker 2: a way that US automakers haven't. 118 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I think I think a lot of 119 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 3: automakers over time has been very focused on driving profitability. 120 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:50,279 Speaker 3: And there's nothing wrong with that, right, There's nothing wrong 121 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:52,600 Speaker 3: with that, and that's that's the only reason why we 122 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:56,720 Speaker 3: people go into business is to make money. But I think, uh, 123 00:06:57,080 --> 00:07:00,240 Speaker 3: you know that that you know, there has to be 124 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 3: a balance. I think, and you know, driving costs is great, 125 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:08,039 Speaker 3: but can we drive costs with innovation? And I think 126 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 3: that's what Trump is trying to do based on his rhetoric, 127 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 3: is to bring back manufacturing. So like, how can The 128 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 3: question is how can automakers actually build a low cost 129 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 3: car in the US through innovation. 130 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 2: It's Steve Man, a Bloomberg Intelligence at Global Autos and 131 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:31,240 Speaker 2: Industry at the Analysts. Thank you very much for joining us. 132 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 133 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 134 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 135 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 136 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 4: That Musk news is really interesting. It's great for the 137 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 4: stock stocks. Up four percent is Genosis reporting, So I'm 138 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 4: sure the investors there are happy. Let's get right down 139 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 4: to DC and get it from the a source, our source. 140 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 4: Then in DC. Nathan Dean, senior policy analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. 141 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 4: Nathan in the Beltway, what was the feeler and what 142 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 4: is the feeling about Elon Musk? His role, his proximity 143 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 4: to the president is so so close, and it's been 144 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 4: that way since the inauguration here, But is anybody surprised 145 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 4: that he may be leaving maybe leading soon? 146 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 5: So I don't think I was surprised. I think this 147 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 5: makes sense. And obviously if you're in Tesla investor, you're 148 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 5: going to like the idea that Elon Musk returns to 149 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 5: the company. But if you think about it, you know, 150 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 5: the Doge Committee, the Doge Group, if you will, they've 151 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 5: been expanding. Bloomberg News just reported a few minutes ago 152 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 5: that Kelshi's chief regulatory officer is going to Doge. What 153 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:39,840 Speaker 5: Elon Musk essentially has done is he's created a group 154 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 5: and they're going agency by agency, but they can only 155 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 5: cut so much. You know, if they cut too much, 156 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 5: then eventually it's going to be a political blowback. And 157 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:49,680 Speaker 5: Elon Musk doesn't have the power to go after the 158 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 5: mandatory spending, which is where the big ticket items in 159 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 5: terms of reducing the deficit is. So I think this 160 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 5: makes sense. He's going to return to the Tesla. Assuming 161 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 5: Political is reporting is correct, he'll return to Tesla, but 162 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 5: nothing prevents him from coming back. Nothing prevents them from 163 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 5: going into the White House. And I think if you're 164 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 5: a Republican on Capitol Hill, you'll love the idea that 165 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 5: maybe you're not going to have the White House calling 166 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:13,840 Speaker 5: for deep cuts to Social Security, the mandatory spending. If 167 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 5: you will, they'll be left to Congress. So I think 168 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 5: they may be pleased with this as well. 169 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 2: So this is not the end of DOGE. If this 170 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:21,960 Speaker 2: is indeed true, this is just sort of an evolution 171 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 2: of DOGE, So we can still expect that to come 172 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 2: and bring hammers to everyone's payrolier. 173 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 5: Absolutely well, at least in terms of your first question 174 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 5: in terms of this is not the end of DOGE. 175 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 5: Dog is going to continue. But what Elon must did 176 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 5: is essentially created a group of advisors and individuals that 177 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,679 Speaker 5: are going in agency by agency and they're looking at 178 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:45,840 Speaker 5: identifying areas to cut. But for Elon's mangal of deficit reduction, 179 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 5: he's not going to be able to do that with DOGE. 180 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 5: They just do not have the power to do that. 181 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 5: It requires an Act of Congress. So you are going 182 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 5: to see DOGE continue probably for the next year, if 183 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 5: not a little bit longer, until they really get to 184 00:09:57,880 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 5: the point where they are streamlined and they feel that 185 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 5: they've adequately right sized those agencies. But for the big 186 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 5: ticket items, we're going to see that in the upcoming 187 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 5: tax debate in terms of things like MEDICAIDS, snap benefits. 188 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 5: You know obviously that was a mandatory, but social Security, 189 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 5: the really key things that are really important to the deficit. 190 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 5: DOJ and Elon Musk just don't have the ability to control. 191 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 5: He's going to need Congress to do that. And I 192 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 5: think Congress is going to be happy. They're now going 193 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 5: to be in the back in the driver's seat, assuming 194 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 5: that Elon Musk does leave. 195 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 4: And Nathan, I wonder if the last night's race in Wisconsin, 196 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:35,680 Speaker 4: with the addictional race where Elon Musk candidate did not win, 197 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 4: do you think that had anything to do with his 198 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 4: decision making. 199 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 5: I don't think so. But I think what last night 200 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 5: didd was the indication of what Republicans fear may happen 201 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 5: eighteen months from now. I mean, if you look at 202 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 5: midterm elections, they always swing back the other way. I 203 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 5: mean the joke is, think of US politics as like 204 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 5: a car out of control going down the street. It 205 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 5: hits guardrails left and right, left and right, it never 206 00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 5: goes straight. And so you know, the tendency here is 207 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 5: is that the House of rep is going to be 208 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 5: in play for Democrats. And I think yesterday just told 209 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 5: a lot of those Republicans on Capitol Hill that a 210 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 5: year from now this may be something that hurts them politically. 211 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:11,600 Speaker 5: And so I don't think anybody's going to vote off 212 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,680 Speaker 5: of what happens right now eighteen months from now. But 213 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 5: I do think that this decision for Elon Musk to 214 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:20,440 Speaker 5: maybe step away from Washington and go back to Texas 215 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:22,679 Speaker 5: and Florida and so forth like that will make a 216 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 5: little bit of the Republicans and capitall breathe a little 217 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:27,080 Speaker 5: bit easier, just because they can get a little bit 218 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 5: more control of the narrative. 219 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 2: You know what this did do We didn't talk about 220 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 2: tariffs for four minutes. Yes, I'm just saying that newsful 221 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 2: definitely just changed. Nathan. Okay, So four o'clock today, I'm 222 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 2: going to be sitting on set on TV, gonna have 223 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 2: my terminal NI heads for all the pros out there. 224 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:44,960 Speaker 2: What are the headlines that you the literal headline that 225 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 2: crosses that you're going to be most interested in. 226 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,560 Speaker 5: So obviously the biggest question is is this going to 227 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 5: be a country tax or a tariff? Or is this 228 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 5: going to be a tariff tariff? Sorry, tiered tariff. But 229 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 5: you know, one of the big questions we're getting from 230 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 5: clients this morning is they're focusing on Secretary I'm sorry, 231 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 5: Treasury Secretary of Scott Beston is saying in terms these 232 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:07,319 Speaker 5: are a cap is essentially floating the idea that these 233 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 5: are a cap, with the idea here that potentially President 234 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 5: Trump will be willing to negotiate going forward and bringing 235 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 5: this down from like a cap down to a reciprocal tariff. 236 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 5: And so the question for me is, in this statement 237 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 5: tonight at the White House or sorry, at the Rose Garden, 238 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 5: is President Trump going to give any indication that he'll 239 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:27,439 Speaker 5: be willing to pick up a phone tomorrow. Because if 240 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:29,560 Speaker 5: that's the case, you know, he can come out and 241 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 5: say twenty fifteen, twenty percent universal tariff, whatever it may be, 242 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:36,200 Speaker 5: but tomorrow it may be different. And so you're not 243 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:38,960 Speaker 5: going to get that clarity of this is what the 244 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 5: tariff policy for the United States will be. I don't 245 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 5: think the markets will like that, just because I don't 246 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:44,439 Speaker 5: think that clarity is coming. 247 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 4: So do you expect any pushback feedback once we do 248 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:54,319 Speaker 4: know what the policy is from either obviously the Democrats 249 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 4: or maybe even some in the Republican Party. 250 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 5: Well, absolutely, I mean I think we're going to see, 251 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 5: you know, obviously the sometime today pick up their resolution 252 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 5: to try and you know, overturn these tariffs that were 253 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:07,599 Speaker 5: up with Canada, and you know, my vote count, I 254 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:09,719 Speaker 5: at least I had. You know, the Democrats need four 255 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 5: Republican senators to go along with them, and I think. 256 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 1: They have it. 257 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 5: So you are going to begin to see a public 258 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 5: rebuke of some of these tariffs. I would just caution though, 259 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 5: and say that, you know, tariffs are the power of 260 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 5: the presidency. Congress delegated its authority a long time ago, 261 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 5: so there's only so much Congress can do to actually 262 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 5: advise the presidents say maybe you should scale this back. 263 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 5: So it's ultimately President Trump's decision. And I think that 264 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 5: for him to be able to walk back this tariff, 265 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 5: and this is just my own personal belief, you're going 266 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 5: to you're going to need to see consumer confidence or 267 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 5: sticker shock amongst things that you know, Americans just buying 268 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 5: a daily basis for him to actually walk back a 269 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 5: lot of their tarff threat. 270 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 2: And of course, though the goal is to shipt the 271 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:53,319 Speaker 2: economy though away from physical spending to private led investments, 272 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 2: is that a possible thing. 273 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 4: Not in the short term. 274 00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:59,320 Speaker 5: I mean, this has been the White House plan all along, 275 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:01,920 Speaker 5: is that you're going to have short term pain for 276 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 5: long term gain. But you know, some of these pains 277 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:06,560 Speaker 5: are going to be very, very, very permanent. I mean, 278 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:09,439 Speaker 5: if you think of just the farmer argument in particular 279 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:12,120 Speaker 5: that you know, if the United States does move forward 280 00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 5: and use the USDA to implement subsidies for farmers, farmers 281 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:18,320 Speaker 5: aren't going to like that because essentially what it means 282 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:20,360 Speaker 5: is that you're going to be thrown out of the 283 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 5: supply chain and in the future, maybe instead of buying 284 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:24,360 Speaker 5: goods from the United States, they're going to buy it 285 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 5: from Brazil. That's not something that you're going to be 286 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 5: able to easily reverse. So yes, you are going to 287 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 5: get this shift. And we've heard from clients saying, look, 288 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 5: I want to potentially buy a factory in the United States. 289 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 5: I just can't do it in twenty twenty five, probably 290 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 5: can't even do it by twenty twenty seven. So you know, 291 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 5: again it's really how long how long can the White 292 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 5: House really keep with this strategy to try and transform 293 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 5: that economy. 294 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 4: All right, Nathan, thank you so much. We appreciate it, 295 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 4: and you're going to have a long afternoon and into 296 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 4: the evening analyzing what we will hear from the President 297 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 4: this scepter and Nathan Deane, Senior policy analyst Bloomberg Intelligence. 298 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 4: He's based down there and wash it in DC. He 299 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 4: does a wonderful job explaining all the mechanizations of what 300 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 4: happens down there in Washington and Congress and Capitol Hill 301 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 4: and in the White House as well. 302 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 303 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto 304 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 305 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube in DC. 306 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:26,840 Speaker 2: It's not just about musk, It's not just about tariffs. 307 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 2: It's also about TikTok. Potentially. President Trump is weighing plans 308 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 2: for TikTok sale today at a meeting. We want to 309 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 2: get more on this. And Matt you St and Hell 310 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 2: media litigation analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, he joins us now 311 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 2: from DC. All right, remind us of where we are 312 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 2: in the law and what Congress did and where we're 313 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 2: at here. 314 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 6: Yeah, So we are at the point where Congress adopted 315 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 6: this law last year that effectively bans TikTok in the 316 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 6: United States. As of January nineteenth. The Supreme Court upheld 317 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 6: that law after TikTok Talk brought a constitutional challenge, and 318 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 6: then President Trump adopted an executive order just before the 319 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 6: law was going to take effect in mid January to 320 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 6: say that, look, companies that are at risk under this law, 321 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 6: don't worry about it. Right now, we're not going to 322 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 6: enforce that law. So app stores like Google and Apple 323 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:30,080 Speaker 6: and Oracle, companies that host TikTok, potentially faced billions of 324 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 6: dollars of liability under the law. Trump's Attorney general sent 325 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 6: a letter saying, don't worry about it. We don't think 326 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 6: you're in violation of the law, so you can continue 327 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 6: to host TikTok. That executive order from President Trump ran 328 00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 6: for seventy five days. That takes you to Saturday, April fifth. 329 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 6: So we're at the point where there's likely to be 330 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 6: some action. And as you said, there's a meeting in 331 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 6: the White House today. 332 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 4: It's a good time for this discussion. Matthew had read 333 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 4: headline crossing the Bloomberg terminals we speak, Amazon puts in 334 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 4: a last minute bid to acquire all of TikTok. What 335 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 4: do you make of that? 336 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 6: That's that's that's fascinating. I mean to me, that underscores 337 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 6: how far we are away from a resolution here and 338 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:18,359 Speaker 6: you're talking about, you know, you know, some indication that 339 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,400 Speaker 6: they that a deal could be in place by by Saturday. 340 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 6: I don't think so. There there are so many moving 341 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 6: pieces here and new bids coming in that the idea 342 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:32,920 Speaker 6: that all of this is going to be resolved in 343 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:37,760 Speaker 6: three days seems pretty fantastic. So I think what you're 344 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:41,080 Speaker 6: likely to see is sort of some indication of movement 345 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 6: towards a deal and President Trump again kicking the can 346 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 6: down the road. And the only question is is anyone 347 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:49,840 Speaker 6: going to stand up to that. There was a lot 348 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 6: of political courage to to, you know, advocate for a 349 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 6: ban of TikTok last year. There were some votes in 350 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,600 Speaker 6: Congress that were fifty to zero for it. But now 351 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:03,160 Speaker 6: President Trump has a warm spot in his heart for TikTok, 352 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 6: as he says, and suddenly some of that courage is 353 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:09,400 Speaker 6: falling away. So that's going to be the interesting dynamic 354 00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 6: is how much lawmakers or maybe TikTok's competitors stand up 355 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 6: and say, hey, we have a law on the books 356 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:18,679 Speaker 6: here that that that bands TikTok. Are we going to 357 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:19,480 Speaker 6: enforce it or not? 358 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 2: So to that point, I guess I wonder what part 359 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:26,360 Speaker 2: of TikTok is still left to be bought in that 360 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,200 Speaker 2: is it just going to be the US stuff, which 361 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 2: may not be as valuable, or is it going to 362 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,639 Speaker 2: also be the technology that kind of sits in China. 363 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 2: And if that's the case, how do we get. 364 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:40,360 Speaker 6: That That's that's sort of the million dollar question here, 365 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 6: because there was a lot of pushback in Congress for 366 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:47,119 Speaker 6: the idea that a company tied to China would still 367 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:51,119 Speaker 6: have control over the algorithm, and and a lot of 368 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 6: the solutions you're seeing floated around look a lot like 369 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 6: what TikTok was pitching as Project Texas last year, where 370 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 6: the US opperations what would work here maybe under Oracle 371 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:06,919 Speaker 6: or someone else, but the algorithm would still ultimately be 372 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 6: controlled by by byte Dance. And the question is is 373 00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 6: that the sort of solution that we're talking about here, 374 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:17,920 Speaker 6: because ultimately China and byte Dance need to agree to this, 375 00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:21,119 Speaker 6: and and with with Trump kicking the can down the 376 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 6: road on this van, I'm not sure they have a 377 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,159 Speaker 6: lot of concern. I don't know that the US has 378 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:31,680 Speaker 6: a lot of leverage to force them to sell the algorithm, 379 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 6: So it seems very likely that we're looking at some 380 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 6: sort of solution that that keeps that algorithm tied to China, 381 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 6: tied to byte Dance, And the question is is Congress 382 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 6: going to be okay with that now in a way 383 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:45,240 Speaker 6: they weren't last year? 384 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:48,680 Speaker 4: I mean, silly question, but there's no indication that byte 385 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 4: Dance wants to sell here. So I mean an Amazon 386 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 4: bid is impressive, but I don't think I've got a 387 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 4: seller there, do I. 388 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 6: That's exactly that's been the problem, you know through this 389 00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:03,400 Speaker 6: whole process, is is bike Dance really willing to sell 390 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:08,359 Speaker 6: and especially the algorithm component here with with China needing 391 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:12,400 Speaker 6: to to bless that. So yeah, a lot of offers, 392 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,119 Speaker 6: a lot of talk, but but I think we're far 393 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,120 Speaker 6: from from any sort of final resolution here. 394 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 2: So to that point, this goes back to the earlier 395 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:22,679 Speaker 2: headline that Paul just broke that Amazon's putting in that 396 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 2: last minute bid to acquire all of TikTok this according 397 00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:26,879 Speaker 2: to the New York Times, who else quickly is on 398 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 2: the docket to potentially buy? 399 00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:32,399 Speaker 6: Yeah, so I mean you keep seeing Oracle mentioned as 400 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,680 Speaker 6: a potential bidder. You saw Frank McCourt was on Bloomberg 401 00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 6: Television earlier, and you know a number of other names, 402 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 6: you know, floating around. I don't have great visibility into 403 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 6: all those offers. I've heard four offers you know, talked about. 404 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:51,160 Speaker 6: But just I think we'll learn more this afternoon after 405 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 6: this meeting, as as President Trump considers next steps here. 406 00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 6: But again a lot of open questions on the law 407 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 6: and big questions politically of whether whether people are going 408 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,640 Speaker 6: to advocate for the law that was adopted last year. 409 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,719 Speaker 4: All right, so you know, Alex that Matt does all 410 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 4: the litigation around the media communications, which means he's going 411 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 4: to be going out to the NAP conference out in Vegas, 412 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:18,720 Speaker 4: National Association of Broadcasters. So I asked him offline, where 413 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 4: are you staying in Vegas? Because that tells me a 414 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:24,199 Speaker 4: lot about a person, you know. His response, he didn't know. 415 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:26,239 Speaker 2: Yeah, Al did not like this. 416 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 6: By the way, Matt, I booked someplace. I got to 417 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:29,679 Speaker 6: look it up. 418 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,399 Speaker 4: All thank goodness, because I mean, you know, when I 419 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 4: was out there, first it was the mirage, then Bolagio 420 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:39,159 Speaker 4: nounce the win. But it's it says a lot about it. 421 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 2: But if you don't know where you're staying, that just 422 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 2: means that you got you've got nothing going noew lots 423 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 2: of shade, Lots of shade. Met Schettenhelm of Boomberg Intelligence 424 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 2: Litigation Analysts, thank you so very much. 425 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:54,760 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 426 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:58,920 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 427 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 1: ten am to new n Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 428 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 429 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:09,200 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 430 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal